Senior figures in the Venezuelan military came out in support of President Nicolás Maduro on Thursday, a day after the US said it no longer recognised him as the country’s leader and backed the opposition’s Juan Guaidó instead.

Vladimir Padrino López, a general and Venezuela’s defence minister, said Mr Maduro was the country’s rightful leader and condemned what he described as Mr Guaidó’s unlawful attempt to wrest power from the socialist regime.

“Yesterday we saw a reprehensible event: a man proclaiming himself president,” Mr Padrino López said, referring to Wednesday’s huge street protests in Caracas, during which Mr Guaidó took a self-administered oath as Venezuela’s interim leader. “That’s a very serious matter.”

“We are here to avoid ... a conflict between Venezuelans,” he said. “It is not a civil war that will solve Venezuela’s problems. It is dialogue.”

In a video posted on social media and broadcast on state TV, other senior military figures also backed Mr Maduro, who has led the country since 2013 but has come under intense pressure to resign since he started his second term as president this month after an election victory widely dismissed as a fraud.

“The people of Venezuela, in a free and secret vote, elected Nicolás Maduro Moros as president,” said Maj Gen Manuel Bernal Martínez, head of the military in the west of the country.

Backed by dozens of soldiers in olive green fatigues, other generals stepped forward and added their expressions of support for Mr Maduro.

The declarations came after a day of high drama in which, one by one, many countries across the Americas turned their backs on Mr Maduro and embraced Mr Guaidó, the head of the National Assembly, or Congress – regarded widely as the last bastion of democracy in the country.

US president Donald Trump hailed Mr Guaidó as the nation’s leader, and other countries – including Brazil, Argentina and Colombia – followed suit in what appeared to be a carefully synchronised move to undermine Mr Maduro.

The battle for power of the Venezuelan executive has split the world, however. Russia, China, Turkey and Mexico still regard Mr Maduro as president.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, expressed support for Mr Maduro in a phone call on Thursday, the Kremlin said, as well as his backing for a “peaceful dialogue”.

The EU stopped short of explicitly supporting Mr Guaidó but called for elections in Venezuela and backed the national assembly that he heads as the “elected institution whose powers need to be restored and respected”.

Federica Mogherini, EU foreign policy chief, said: “On January 23rd, the people of Venezuela have massively called for democracy and the possibility to freely determine their own destiny. The EU strongly calls for the start of an immediate political process leading to free and credible elections, in conformity with the constitutional order.”

Donald Tusk, European Council president, struck a similar note with a tweeted call for “all of Europe [to] unite in support of democratic forces in #Venezuela”. He added: “Unlike Maduro, the parliamentary assembly, including Juan Guaidó have a democratic mandate from Venezuelan citizens.”

French president Emmanuel Macron wrote in a Twitter post: “After Nicolás Maduro’s illegitimate election in May 2018, Europe supports the restoration of democracy. Acclaim the bravery of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans who march for their freedom.”

The UK said Mr Maduro was “not the legitimate leader of Venezuela” and joined Washington in backing his rival. “The United Kingdom believes Juan Guaidó is the right person to take Venezuela forward,” said Jeremy Hunt, UK foreign secretary. “We are supporting the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina to make that happen.”

Venezuela has become increasingly militarised since Mr Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, a former paratrooper, came to power 20 years ago, and the military’s support could tip the balance of power between the two rival presidents.

While the top brass of the military appears to be steadfast in its support for Mr Maduro, there are increasing signs of discontent among the lower ranks, where soldiers suffer the same deprivations as ordinary citizens. Earlier this week, the government quashed a rebellion by 27 members of the Bolivarian national guard – the military police force.

“It took the military several hours to express their support for Maduro after Guaidó designated himself president but they eventually came out with clear, if not exactly effusive, support,” said David Smilde, an expert on Venezuela at Tulane University in the US.

“I think those hours after Guaidó’s self-proclamation were the key test and Maduro got past that hump. However, his support from the military is clearly not airtight and that will be the key in the days and weeks ahead.”

The Maduro government has warned the US of repercussions, saying that “things could happen” at its embassy in Caracas. Mr Maduro has given staff there 72 hours to leave the country, accusing the US of trying to foment a coup.

On Thursday, Mr Maduro said he had decided to close the Venezuelan embassy and all consulates in the US.

Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said Washington no longer recognised the Maduro regime and would not withdraw its staff. “The United States will take appropriate actions to hold accountable anyone who endangers the safety and security of our mission and its personnel,” he said.

In remarks on Thursday to the Organisation of American States, a diplomatic body comprising nearly all the countries in the Americas, Mr Pompeo again denounced Mr Maduro: “His regime is morally bankrupt, it is economically incompetent, and it is profoundly corrupt. It is undemocratic to the core.”

Foro Penal (Penal Forum), a Venezuelan non-governmental organisation, said seven people have died this week in clashes between anti-government protesters and the security forces, and more than 200 were injured. Local media put the death toll as high as 16.

After Wednesday’s drama, the streets of Caracas were relatively calm on Thursday, and Mr Guaidó kept a low profile.

“We’ll have to wait and see what happens. A lot of people are confused, and some are saying he’s already gone into hiding,” said 42-year-old Victor Oropeza in the Caracas neighbourhood of La Yaguara.

On Wednesday, prices for Venezuela’s bonds jumped to their highest levels in seven months on hope that regime change might be near in the country, which under Mr Maduro has suffered one of the biggest economic collapses in Latin American history.

The economy has halved in size in five years and gross domestic product dropped 18 per cent in 2018 alone, as oil output slumped to its lowest level since the 1940s. The International Monetary Fund expects inflation to hit 10m per cent this year.

Some three million people have fled the country in recent years, many of them suffering from hunger. The UN expects thousands more to follow this year. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2019</s>The latest developments in Venezuela’s political crisis have dealt a severe blow to President Nicolas Maduro — severe, but not fatal, for one key reason: the military still backs him.

The National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela pointedly reiterated their loyalty to Maduro on Thursday, a day after opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself the country’s acting president.

In a statement read out to the press by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the military top brass called the leftist leader the “legitimate president” and Guaido’s move a “coup.”

Following Padrino’s lead, eight other top generals declared their “absolute loyalty and subordination” to Maduro, live on state television.

Guaido, the 35-year-old speaker of Venezuela’s opposition-controlled legislature, was “inaugurated” as acting president Wednesday before thousands of demonstrators, declaring that Maduro’s re-election in a widely-condemned vote was illegitimate.

The United States and a string of Latin American countries quickly backed Guaido.

But his move did little to change the calculus of power on the ground. Maduro, who has presided over a spiraling political and economic crisis, still controls both the army and the Supreme Court.

Guaido has offered an amnesty to soldiers who break ranks with Maduro, in an effort to win over potential defectors, including both officers and rank-and-file troops who may be weary of cracking down on their own people.

He may stand a chance of getting a critical mass of soldiers to break ranks, some experts say.

“When you take the kind of step that he’s taken, you have to know what kind of support you have, especially within the military,” political scientist Luis Salamanca told AFP.

But it will not be easy to break the military monolith.

“Maduro relies on the military, and they rely on him, to enrich themselves and avoid facing trial if the regime ultimately falls,” said Salamanca.

Doubling down on one of the strategies of his late mentor, the leftist firebrand Hugo Chavez, Maduro has given the military vast power.

Chavez gave 25 percent of the posts in the executive branch to the military. Under Maduro, that figure rose to as high as 44 percent — though it has recently fallen again, to 26 percent, according to the watchdog group Control Ciudadano.

“Being a minister isn’t the source of wealth it once was,” said the group’s director, Rocio San Miguel, adding that generals today would rather get rich presiding over things like subsidized food imports — which are rife with corruption, amid a devastating crisis that has left supermarket shelves practically bare.

Still, nine of Maduro’s 32 ministers are from the military, which also controls powerful institutions including state oil company PDVSA and the intelligence services. The list also includes a TV network, a bank, an auto manufacturer, and a mining, oil and gas company.

The more unpopular Maduro gets, the more the military’s power grows, according to many analysts.

The president has called the army the “backbone” of the country. He also relies heavily on the National Guard and the country’s 1.6 million civilian militia members.

But as even the defense minister admits, the “devil” has crept into Venezuela’s barracks — his word for anti-Maduro plots.

On Monday, 27 soldiers stole a cache of weapons and staged a brief mutiny before being arrested at the Caracas barracks where they were entrenched.

Two generals are also among those jailed for an alleged assassination attempt on August 4, when a pair of drones exploded near Maduro at a military procession.

Last year, another 180 troops were arrested on conspiracy charges, according to San Miguel. Many of them were tortured, says Human Rights Watch.

The New York Times reported in September that US officials had met with Venezuelan military officers about a coup plot that was ultimately aborted.

Maduro’s claims the United States has a $120-million fund for “buying” Venezuelan officers.

And there are signs of cracks in what was once the security forces’ steadfast loyalty. More than 4,300 National Guards members deserted in 2018, according to San Miguel.

Most military top brass are torn between “following Maduro at the risk of going down with him” and “saving their own skins,” said Salamanca.</s>When Juan Guaidó, the newly minted Venezuelan opposition leader took the oath and declared himself the country’s interim president, he did so holding an incongruous copy of the country’s constitution. It was emblazoned with the mustachioed face of Simón Bolívar, the Venezuelan military leader who liberated the Andes from the Spanish empire in the early 19th century.

Bolívar is a national hero in Venezuela and, with monuments dedicated to him at home and in many cities across the north of South America, it’s little surprise that politicians have long sought to use his legacy to rally supporters. Nicolás Maduro and his late predecessor, Hugo Chávez, co-opted the image, framing their socialist project as a continuation of Bolívar’s freedom-fighting tenacity.

When Chávez was elected in 1999, he changed the official name of the country to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and in 2012 commissioned a £90m mausoleum to house the liberator’s exhumed remains.

Maduro, who succeeded Chávez after his death from cancer in 2013, kept up the trope. In one of his more fanatical moments in late 2017, Maduro claimed that Bolívar’s spirit had become incarnated in the Venezuelan people.



Despite the revolutionary’s appropriation by the chavistas (followers of Chávez), Bolívar’s legacy remains intact. After all, his image had once been tied to the Venezeulan nationalist military dictatorship of Marcos Pérez Jiménez which ended in 1958. 



Guaidó’s decision to use a copy of the constitution with Bolívar face – rather than Venezuela’s stately shield and crest – indicates that the marriage of the liberator’s legacy and turbulent politics will continue.</s>Opposition leader Juan Guaido on Wednesday swore himself in as Venezuela’s rightful commander-in-chief in direct challenge to President Nicolas Maduro, who faces growing international criticism for undermining democracy.

Like many in the opposition and international community, Guaido says the May 2018 vote in which Maduro won a second term was fraudulent and he has called for new elections.

Guaido, who a decade ago participated in protests against late socialist leader Hugo Chavez, is promising a transition to a new government through free and fair elections and an amnesty for military officers who disavow Maduro.

However, Maduro seems to have full control of the state administration.

The top brass of Venezuela’s military has shown no sign of leaving Maduro’s side. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino reaffirmed support for Maduro in a tweet on Wednesday, saying Venezuela’s armed forces disavowed any self-proclaimed president.

The Supreme Court, stacked with Maduro loyalists, has remained solidly behind the socialist leader, ruling earlier this week that all actions taken by the congress - led by Guaido - are null and void.

State oil company PDVSA, which accounts for most of Venezuela’s export earnings, stood by Maduro. “We have no other president” besides Maduro, PDVSA President and Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo, a career military officer, said in a Wednesday statement.

Meanwhile Guaido besides the massive support of the people in the streets, has strong international backin.

The United States recognized Guaido shortly after he proclaimed himself president on Wednesday, saying it would use its “economic and diplomatic power” to restore democracy in Venezuela. 

 - Numerous right-leaning Latin American governments, including Brazil, Colombia and Argentina, also recognized Guaido.

There are some signs that support for the opposition is expanding beyond its traditional middle- and upper-class areas. Several protests against Maduro have broken out in working-class neighborhoods and slums this week.

Some low-ranking military officers have expressed discontent with the government. The government on Monday said it suppressed a military revolt after a group of officers stole weapons, kidnapped officers, and demanded Maduro’s removal.</s>The Venezuelan military will not accept a president imposed by “dark interests,” Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said after Washington and a number of its allies recognized a lawmaker as the new leader in Caracas.

The army will continue to defend the constitution and national sovereignty, Padrino said on Wednesday afternoon, hours after opposition lawmaker Juan Guaido was proclaimed interim president by the National Assembly, in a direct challenge to President Nicolas Maduro.

Also on rt.com Trump recognizes US-backed head of Venezuela’s opposition Juan Guaido as country’s interim president

The US quickly recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, with the Organization of American States (OAS) following Washington’s lead. Canada and France have also recognized Guaido, while Mexico has declined to do so “for now.”

El desespero y la intolerancia atentan contra la paz de la Nación. Los soldados de la Patria no aceptamos a un presidente impuesto a la sombra de oscuros intereses ni autoproclamado al margen de la Ley. La FANB defiende nuestra Constitución y es garante de la soberanía nacional. — Vladimir Padrino L. (@vladimirpadrino) January 23, 2019

La FANB está unida al Pueblo Venezolano somos respetuosos de la Constitución y las Ley. Venezuela eligió Presidente, somos Soberanos y Leales a nuestro Cmdte en Jefe Nicolás Maduro Moros. Traidores no sigan desde el extranjero irrespetando a la Patria, Lucharemos y Venceremos! https://t.co/h3W8SiVu5H — A/J REMIGIO CEBALLOS (@CeballosIchaso) January 23, 2019

Bolivia declared "solidarity with the people of Venezuela and brother Nicolas Maduro" in resisting the "claws of imperialism" in South America, President Evo Morales tweeted.

Maduro responded to the US announcement by cutting diplomatic ties with Washington and giving American diplomats 72 hours to leave Venezuela.

Also on rt.com Venezuela breaking diplomatic relations with US after its attempt to stage coup – President Maduro

Guaido, however, countermanded that in a tweet and promised that Venezuela “will continue to maintain diplomatic relations with all the countries of the world.”

The issue of diplomats has raised the stakes in the US-Venezuela confrontation, as Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) – one of the driving forces behind the recognition of Guaido – argued that US diplomats should stay put, since leaving would mean recognition of Maduro’s legitimacy.

Like this story? Share it with a friend!</s>A new president has appointed himself in charge of the country.

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido swore himself in as Venezula’s interim president, relying on a provision in the country’s constitution that boots President Nicolas Maduro from the presidency and allows Guaido to take control of the country.

Immediately after Guaido took an oath of office in the midst of protests against Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump recognized Guaido as the new president. Several other countries followed America’s lead, including Canada, Peru, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, reported i24 News.

However, a spokesperson for the Mexican government said that country still recognizes Maduro as the reigning president of Venezuela and not Guaido. According to i24 News, Mexico has kept its distance from Venezuela while President Lopez Obrador has been at the helm. A leftist who assumed office in December, Obrador said his foreign policy is “based on the principle of non-intervention in other countries’ affair.”

The White House is observing how things transpire after this turn of events. Thousands of Venezuelans flooded the streets to protest both the current president and show support of the new one. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence issued a statement of support for those opposed to Madura.

“As the good people of Venezuela make your voices heard tomorrow, on behalf of the American people, we say: estamos con ustedes. We are with you. We stand with you, and we will stay with you until Democracy is restored and you reclaim your birthright of Libertad,” Pence tweeted.

Venezuelan police reported the deaths of four people during the protests and rioting, including a 16-year-old who had sustained a firearm injury in the capital of Caracas. Three other deaths occurred in Bolivar City from rebels looting during the unrest, reported i24 News.

Dozens of protesters set on fire a statue of socialist revolutionary leader Hugo Chavez who reigned prior to Maduro, which was located in San Felix, Bolivar State.

A group of soldiers commandeered a post north of the capital as a show of solidarity against Maduro. They published a video on social media urging people to join them in the streets. Police and armed forces quickly snuffed out their attempts, i24 News reported, and 27 people were arrested, but that quickly instigated an estimated 30 additional protests around Caracas.

Maduro’s presidency has been controversial from the start. The second election he won in May was boycotted by the opposition and considered to be illegal by the European Union, U.S. and other Latin American countries, i24 News reported.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio took to Twitter to express his support for the anti-Maduro groups and Guaido.

“Tonight please pray for [Juan Guaidó] and the thousands of Venezuelans who will face danger and difficulty in the hours ahead. May God give them strength. And may he change the hearts of military leaders so that they protect not repress their fellow countrymen,” Rubio tweeted.</s>Mike Pence, the US vice-president, has issued a video message offering the country's ’unwavering support’ to Venezuelans protesting against President Nicolás Maduro.

‘We stand with you, and we will stay with you until democracy is restored,’ Pence said on the eve of demonstrations expected to take place across the country. Maduro has accused Washington of trying to force a coup</s>Venezuelan army will not accept an imposed president of the republic, the nation's defense minister said Wednesday, after an opposition leader declared himself as interim president.

"Despair and intolerance threaten the peace of the Nation. The soldiers of the homeland do not accept a president imposed in the shadow of obscure interests or self-proclaimed outside the law," Vladimir Padrino Lopez said in a statement on Twitter before demonstrations Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump also recognized the Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president of the country, marking the most significant escalation in the ongoing feud between Washington and Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.

Guaido is the president of Venezuela's National Assembly, which Maduro stripped of its power and refuses to recognize amid continued international recognition.

The Bolivarian National Armed Forces, or FANB, defends the Venezuela's Constitution "and is the guarantor of national sovereignty," Lopez wrote.

Maduro has repeatedly lashed out at the U.S., saying Washington is waging an economic war against him and his government amid a sweeping sanctions campaign.

Venezuela has been rocked by protests since Jan. 10 when Maduro was sworn in for a second term following a vote boycotted by the opposition.

This article has been adapted from its original source.</s>Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's right-hand man and head of the Constituent Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, says 25 soldiers were arrested, and two more were detained elsewhere

CARACAS, Venezuela – A group of 27 soldiers rose up against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro at a command post in Caracas on Monday, January 21, but they were quickly arrested after posting an appeal for public support in a video.

"We are the professional troop of the National Guard against the regime, which we completely repudiate. I need your help, take to the streets," a man who identified himself as the group's leader said in a video circulated on social media.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino issued a statement shortly afterward saying the soldiers had been arrested.

Before the attack on a National Guard command center in northern Caracas where they were captured, the men had assaulted another security post, taking 4 prisoners and making off with "weapons of war," the statement said.

"During the arrest, stolen weapons were recovered and (the mutineers) are providing useful information to intelligence services and the military justice system," added Padrino, who said the rebels would "face the full force of the law."

Maduro's right-hand man and head of the Constituent Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, said 25 soldiers were arrested at the site, and two more were detained elsewhere.

The Supreme Court, which is dominated by regime loyalists, later took aim at the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declaring its leadership illegitimate and its decisions invalid.

Last week, the assembly had declared Maduro an "usurper," and offered members of the military and the government amnesty if they broke with Maduro.

It also called for a day of protests against the president on Wednesday.

The mutiny unfolded in the early hours of the day and culminated at the National Guard's Cotiza command, which was later surrounded by police and troops.

"They were neutralized, surrendered and captured in record time," Cabello tweeted.

"They are already confessing details and the first thing they said is that they were offered villas and castles but were left alone, they were tricked. We will win," he added, without specifying who allegedly made the offer.

The armed forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters who gathered outside the command post, banging pots and blocking roads with burning garbage in support of the uprising.

"If they unite with our country, we're with them, we're going to stay in the streets. Freedom!" shouted one woman, who declined to be identified.

"We want Maduro to go, we're fed up," added a man.

National Assembly president Juan Guaido, who has engaged Maduro in a power struggle since being elected to lead the legislature earlier this month, spoke out in support of the mutinous soldiers.

"What is happening in the National Guard in Cotiza is a demonstration of the general feeling that reigns within" the armed forces, Guaido said on Twitter.

"Our military knows that the chain of command has been broken by the usurpation of the presidential office.

"The National Assembly is committed to offering all the necessary guarantees to members of the armed forces that actively contribute to the restoration of the constitution."

But the Supreme Court responded by declaring Guaido, who has quickly become the central figure in the Maduro opposition, a usurper himself.

Parliament "does not have a legitimate board of directors" the court's president Juan Jose Mendoza said in a statement he read to the press, adding that the National Assembly was "usurping its authority, and therefore all its decisions are void."

The top court also said it was annulling the legislature's decision to officially declare Maduro a usurper and promising an amnesty law to protect military personnel that turn against the president.

Maduro, who has presided over the virtual collapse of the economy and a mass exodus of Venezuelans fleeing unemployment and shortages of food and medicine, has so far retained the support of the military high command despite growing domestic discontent.

He won controversial snap elections in May that were boycotted by the opposition and branded fraudulent by the United States, the European Union and a dozen Latin American countries.

The National Assembly has long been held in check by the Supreme Court, which stripped it of its powers after the opposition gained control of the legislature in 2016 elections.

Guaido, though, has shown a determination to challenge Maduro's authority.

He previously urged the general population and armed forces to support a transitional government that would oust Maduro and organize elections.

He has also called for a mass protest on Wednesday to support his demands, while the regime has announced its own counter-demonstration in support of Maduro.

It will be the first such mass street action since 2017 when more than 4 months of street protests claimed the lives of 125 people. – Rappler.com</s>As a growing number of world leaders recognize opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, defaulted Venezuelan "hunger bonds" are rallying to their strongest level in more than a year as the brutal socialist regime of Nicolas Maduro - who was sworn in earlier this month for a second six-year term - teeters on the brink of outright collapse.

Venezuela’s 2022 bonds on Thursday halted their biggest three-day rally since October, but the rally so far has been nothing short of stunning, though many LatAm investors have opted to steer clear for now.

"I prefer to stay out until things get better," Francisco Ghersi, managing director at Knossos Asset Management, told Bloomberg. He added that Maduro - who has kicked out all US diplomats and insisted that he will retaliate against demonstrators - will do "whatever it takes to be in power."

While Maduro is still technically in control of the levers of power and the country's collapsing energy infrastructure, Guaido has one key advantage: The US could unfreeze millions of dollars in Venezuelan assets and turn them over to him. The US could also impose an oil embargo on Venezuela, which would add to the financial strain from US sanctions against Maduro and his regime. In Latin America, only three countries, - Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua - still recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

Here's a roundup of what analysts are saying about the bonds, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Siobhan Morden, head of LatAm fixed-income strategy at Nomura in New York:
• "U.S. recognition will come with responsibilities. It’ll be a game of chicken to see if incremental pressure works for an internal rupture. If not, then look for full blown economic sanctions"
• DVSA bonds could jump to 30 cents on the event of a regime change
• "The U.S. recognition is a game changer. It may prompt Maduro to do something radical like try to remove him, which will leave the international community no choice but tighten grip around country, leaving the military to abandon him"
• Invesco owns Venezuelan bonds, but is not adding more at this moment given the spike in prices Wednesday
• The bond rally will probably fade if the military reiterates its support for Maduro
• Market has been betting on regime change, yet it depends on military
• Unclear how long Maduro would survive if Venezuela loses capacity to sell oil to U.S.
• Consequences could be similar to U.S. decision to freeze Libyan assets in 2011 and Muammar Gaddafi losing power several months later
• "The quicker Maduro’s out, the better it will be for bondholders. I think what you’ll have is you’ll have a new government come that will want to enter into a restructuring"
• "The market is anticipating that a little bit, especially with the move in the prices over the last few days"
• "The new government is probably going to have a bit of a honeymoon period with bondholders, where they may be a little more amenable to terms"
• Says credible range for recovery value is between 30-40 cents

Shamaila Khan, director of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York:
• Has a long-held view that regime change would happen "We think regime change is likely in the near term"
• It’s possible that debt may overshoot amid the positive news, but not there yet

Patrick Esteruelas, a senior analyst at Emso Asset Management in New York:
• It’s potentially “the beginning of the end” for Maduro’s regime amid increasing foreign and domestic pressure

Michael Roche, a strategist at Seaport Global Holdings in New York:
• "Any and all ‘positive for regime change’ information coming to light will add pressure on participants to accumulate an exposure to the Venezuelan sovereign given the likelihood that prices could close in on recovery values - in the $40 area - quickly"
• Investors should buy "on a tactical basis - it’s best to buy any weakness so as not to push prices up too quickly"
• "The market will now look to see the reaction of the Maduro government to the protest and diplomatic moves"
• Recent actions by the U.S. and other governments to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido as the interim president are a "game changer" for the nation’s bonds
• "All the avenues are closing" for Maduro
• Sees value in PDVSA 22s, PDVSA 23s and PDVSA 24s
• "This time feels very different from previous moments when Maduro seemed at risk.Bolsonaro’s election in Brazil may be the difference maker as Maduro can be squeezed not only from the north but also now from the largest power in Latin America"

Though Venezuelas' benchmark bonds ticked lower on Thursday, they remained near their one-year highs.

As Forbes Ken Rapoza pointed out in a column about the turmoil in what was once Latin America's wealthiest country, nearly every Venezuelan bond issue is in default, offering a potentially massive payoff for any political arbitrageurs brave enough to accept the risk.

Every Venezuelan government bond is in default except for the PdVSA 2020s. The defaulted bonds are being bought in the secondary market at discounts of around 80% as an option on regime change. It’s a relatively illiquid market. Investors who bet Maduro would have been gone by 2017 are still holding those bonds. Selling them now just locks in a loss. Some funds are suing Venezuela. "Those bonds double in value if Maduro goes,” says Jan Dehn, head of research at the Ashmore Group, and a PdVSA investor. "He might go because the election was illegitimate." The Organization of American States recognizes Juan Guaido, president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, as the top democratically elected leader of the country. Vice President Mike Pence said yesterday that Maduro was a "dictator." And later in the day today, President Trump chimed in to make it uber-official: Washington does not recognize the presidency of Maduro.

But if Maduro does fall, it wouldn't be too difficult to imagine a scenario in the not-too-distant future where bondholders are made whole, as Rapoza pointed out in a tweet.

To be sure, the death of the Maduro regime isn't a foregone conclusion. Russia has threatened the US not to intervene in Venezuela, and we imagine the Chinese, who have pumped billions of dollars of money for oil loans into the country, wouldn't be too keen on losing their investment.
The Venezuelan military rejects Juan Guaidó's self-proclaimed Presidency and remains loyal to President Nicolás Maduro.