SINGAPORE - Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) slumped 11.7 per cent in March, after a short-lived rise of 4.8 per cent in February, on the back of the biggest year-on-year drop for electronics exports since 2013.

Enterprise Singapore noted the "high base" effect from a year ago as it released the export data on Wednesday (April 17).

Still, the March figure was way worse than the 2.2 per cent drop expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. It is also the biggest year-on-year monthly fall in Nodx since the 12 per cent fall in October 2016.

Before February, exports had slid year on year for three straight months: 10.1 per cent in January, 8.5 per cent in December and 2.8 per cent in November.

March’s dismal showing was led by the 26.7 per cent year-on-year plunge in electronic exports, following the 8.2 per cent drop in the previous month, which means that this sector has contracted for about a year.

Integrated circuits (-22.2 per cent), personal computers (-46.3 per cent) and disk media products (-40.3 per cent) contributed the most to the electronics slump.

However, experts suggest this could be indicative of the regional electronics market.

Maybank economist Lee Ju Ye told The Straits Times: “We are seeing more signs of fading for the electronics sector, not just in Singapore but also in electronics powerhouses like South Korea and Taiwan.”

She added that the electronics downcycle may be nearing its bottom and that weak recovery in the industry may be seen in the second half when the US-China trade deal is finalised in May.

“There are tentative positive signals, with PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for most of Asia showing an improvement in March,” she said.

Non-electronic exports declined 7 per cent year on year, reversing from the 9.4 per cent increase seen in February. This was mainly due to shipments of pharmaceuticals (-36.5 per cent), specialised machinery (-24.4 per cent) and petrochemicals (-15.1 per cent).

However, DBS senior economist Irvin Seah said: “The drag from pharmaceuticals can be discounted given its volatile nature and weak linkages with the rest of the economy.”

He added that the 11.7 per cent plunge can be attributed to the “lingering effect of the trade war” as well as a high base and ongoing slowndown in China.

“A turnaround in the sequential month-on-month figure as well as electronics demand will be crucial for an improvement in the overall manufacturing sector performance,” he said.

He also sounded a more optimistic note looking ahead.

“While there could be more downside risk ahead, the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and China is seeing light at the end of the tunnel,” he said, pointing to labour market conditions in the US remaining firm.

“Stimulus measures from China could also start to spill over to Singapore’s export performance in the coming months,” he added.

Nonetheless, some other experts warned of slower growth ahead.

Nomura research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Charnon Boonnuch noted that the fall in Nodx growth was reflected in “lower-than-expected” estimated GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 1.3 per cent year on year in the first quarter of this year, based on the Government’s advance estimate.

“Overall, we remain cautious on the growth outlook,” they said in a statement, forecasting GDP growth this year to be at 2.5 per cent, slowing from last year’s 3.2 per cent. “We expect a deepening in the global tech downturn, which would leave the manufacturing sector vulnerable over the next few months.”

Singapore’s non-oil exports to the majority of the top markets shrank in March, except for the United States (+23.1 per cent), said Enterprise Singapore on Wednesday.

Exports to Japan declined the most, at 36.6 per cent, following February’s 42.6 per cent contraction. The other markets that saw large drops were Taiwan (-27.4 per cent) and Hong Kong (-22.4 per cent), while shipments to China shrank 8.7 per cent.

Non-oil re-exports grew 5.9 per cent in March, following February's 7.2 per cent increase, due to growth in non-electronic re-exports which outweighed the decline in electronics.

Total trade decreased over the year by 0.9 per cent in March, with exports declining by 3 per cent while imports grew 1.5 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, total trade reached $84.2 billion in March, lower than February's $87.1 billion.</s>SINGAPORE’S export growth returned to the negative zone in March, partly on the previous year’s high base, according to government agency Enterprise Singapore (ESG) on Wednesday.

Non-oil domestic exports sank 11.7 per cent year on year - the biggest fall since a 12 per cent fall in October 2016 and far worse than the median decline of 2.2 per cent predicted in a Bloomberg poll of private economists, who have also pointed to China’s economic slowdown, lacklustre chip demand and trade tensions as headwinds.

This was against the 4.8 per cent export growth notched in February, which was revised mildly downwards from a preliminary figure of 4.9 per cent.

DBS senior economist Irvin Seah had said in a report just the previous day that there should be “some positive ‘payback’ in industrial production and export numbers in the coming months”, as manufacturing sentiment metrics in the region seemed to point to inventory restocking.

But the payback appears to not have been delivered, as exports of both electronic and non-electronic products fell in March. The three-month moving average, which has been negative since December 2018, showed a year-on-year drop of 6.4 per cent.

Exports “declined from the high base a year ago” overall, said ESG in its monthly report.

Electronic shipments shrank by the most since 2013, contracting by 26.7 per cent year on year last month after an 8.2 per cent drop in February. Save for November 2018, electronic export growth was negative year on year throughout 2018. The slump was led by disc media, as well as personal computers and integrated circuits.

United Overseas Bank economist Barnabas Gan said that, “with electronic exports contracting for 15 of the past 16 months, it does suggest that Singapore’s electronic cluster could remain weak for an extended period of time in tandem with the weakness in semiconductor demand and exports in the region”. He also said that an electronics recovery would “remain contingent on global trade tensions, demand for technology goods and consumer electronics”.

Meanwhile, non-electronic exports dropped by 7 per cent, compared with the 9.4 per cent increase notched in February - no thanks to double-digit contractions in pharmaceutical, specialised machinery and petrochemical shipments.

Exports from the volatile pharmaceutical cluster were down by 36.5 per cent year on year, with specialised machinery lower by 24.4 per cent and petrochemicals shrinking by 15.1 per cent.

Overall, non-oil domestic exports were down by 14.3 per cent on a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, against a 16 per cent expansion the month before.

Mr Seah said in an update on Wednesday that the month-on-month fall “is indeed a concern”, and added that a turnaround in both the monthly change and electronics demand “will be crucial for an improvement in the overall manufacturing sector performance”.

Exports to almost all of Singapore’s top 10 markets were down in March, except for the United States. The fall was especially marked in Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

“Although peculiar, it may well suggest some lag effect in the transmission process as many of these Asian economies are slower in seeing improvements in economic conditions. It remains to be seen how long such doldrums will persist,” said Mr Seah.

To top things off, exports to emerging markets also slid - to the tune of 21.9 per cent - with the decline led by markets in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Barclays economist Brian Tan called the weakness broad-based and warned that, if the ends up “more persistent or severe than we expected”, Singapore’s full-year gross domestic product - already on track for a year-on-year slowdown - could take a worse hit.

Economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye, from Maybank Kim Eng, also flagged in their report the risk of a cut to the official growth forecast.

“We expect the weakness to continue into (the second quarter) as external demand stays muted, and also due to the high base effects from the previous year,” they added.

ESG’s trade outlook, announced in February, is for non-oil domestic export growth to moderate in 2019 to between zero and 2 per cent, against a 4.2 per cent increase in 2018.</s>Singapore’s electronics exports slumped in March by the most since 2013, an ominous sign that it will take longer for the city state to shake off a regional demand slowdown from earlier this year.

Electronics shipments dropped 26.7 per cent from a year ago, weighing down overall non-oil domestic exports, which fell 11.7 per cent. That was far worse than the 2.2 per cent contraction forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The Chinese economic slowdown, uncertainty over US-China trade talks, and disruptions around the Lunar New Year holidays have soured exports numbers this year, especially in trade-reliant economies like Singapore’s. The city state’s critical electronics sector has contracted for 15 of the past 16 months after an unexpected surge across the region for much of 2017.

The broad March contraction in exports could imperil economic growth, which slowed to 1.3 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago, according to an advanced estimate from the government. Economists at Maybank Kim Eng Research Ltd. predict the government will lower its growth forecast range for the full year to 1-3 per cent, from 1.5-3.5 per cent, after the exports report.

Weaker Chinese demand has also resulted in exports to the US outpacing those to China for the first time in more than seven years.

The figures were released days after a newspaper report that US electronics giant International Business Machines Corp. is closing its technology park in Singapore. IBM will move the manufacturing of its mainframe computers to the US and fire hundreds of workers, according to Today.

Economists are counting on a recovery in Chinese demand, helped by government stimulus measures, which should filter through to the region’s economies. China’s economy grew a better-than-expected 6.4 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago, matching the previous three months’ pace, government data showed Wednesday.</s>Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) slumped 11.7 per cent last month after a short-lived rise of 4.8 per cent in February, on the back of the biggest year-on-year drop in electronics exports since 2013.

Enterprise Singapore noted the "high-base" effect from a year ago as it released the export data yesterday.

Still, the March figure was way worse than the 2.2 per cent drop expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. It was also the biggest year-on-year monthly fall in Nodx since the 12 per cent fall in October 2016.

Before February, exports slid year on year for three straight months. Recently, Singapore's economy also recorded its weakest year-on-year quarterly growth in a decade, as it expanded a mere 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

March's dismal Nodx showing was led by the 26.7 per cent year-on-year plunge in electronics exports, following the 8.2 per cent drop in the previous month, with the sector shrinking for about a year.

However, experts suggest this could be indicative of the regional electronics market.

Maybank economist Lee Ju Ye told The Straits Times: "We are seeing more signs of fading for the electronics sector, not just in Singapore but also in electronics powerhouses like South Korea and Taiwan."

She said the electronics down-cycle may be nearing its bottom, with a weak recovery on the cards.

Non-electronics exports declined 7 per cent year on year, a reverse from the 9.4 per cent increase seen in February. This was mainly due to the fall in shipments of pharmaceuticals (-36.5 per cent), specialised machinery (-24.4 per cent) and petrochemicals (-15.1 per cent).

However, DBS senior economist Irvin Seah said the pharmaceutical sector is volatile by nature. The overall plunge could be attributed to the "lingering effect of the trade war" as well as a high base and ongoing slowdown in China.

He also sounded a more optimistic note looking ahead.

"While there could be more downside risk ahead, the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and China is seeing light at the end of the tunnel," he said, adding that labour market conditions in the US remained firm.

"Stimulus measures from China could also start to spill over to Singapore's export performance in the coming months," he added.

Some other experts warned of slower growth ahead. "We remain cautious on the growth outlook," Nomura research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Charnon Boonnuch said in a statement, forecasting gross domestic product growth this year to be at 2.5 per cent, slowing from last year's 3.2 per cent.

FOR MORE, READ THE STRAITS TIMES TODAY</s>SINGAPORE - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) slumped 11.7 per cent in March as both electronic and non-electronic exports shrank, after a short-lived rise of 4.8 per cent in February.

Enterprise Singapore noted the "high base" effect from a year ago as it released the export data on Wednesday (April 17).

Still, the March figure was way worse than the 2.2 per cent drop expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. It is also the biggest year-on-year monthly fall in Nodx since the 12 per cent fall in October 2016.

On a year-on-year basis, electronic exports sank 26.7 per cent in March, following the 8.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, which means that such exports contracted for about a year.

Integrated circuits (-22.2 per cent), personal computers (-46.3 per cent) and disk media products (-40.3 per cent) contributed the most to the electronics slump.

Non-electronic exports declined 7 per cent year on year, reversing from the 9.4 per cent increase seen in February. This was mainly due to shipments of pharmaceuticals (-36.5 per cent), specialised machinery (-24.4 per cent) and petrochemicals (-15.1 per cent).

Singapore's non-oil exports to the majority of the top markets shrank in March, except for the United States, said Enterprise Singapore on Wednesday.

Exports to Japan declined the most, at 36.6 per cent, following February's 42.6 per cent contraction. The other markets that saw large drops were Taiwan (-27.4 per cent) and Hong Kong (-22.4 per cent).

Non-oil re-exports grew 5.9 per cent in March, following February's 7.2 per cent increase, due to growth in non-electronic re-exports which outweighed the decline in electronics.

Total trade decreased over the year by 0.9 per cent in March, with exports declining by 3 per cent while imports grew 1.5 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, total trade reached $84.2 billion in March, lower than February's $87.1 billion.</s>Exports dropped 11.7 percent in March year-on-year, data from trade agency Enterprise Singapore showed, slowing from the revised 4.8 percent growth the month before.

The drop came in much wider than the 2.1 percent decline predicted by economists in a Reuters poll.

This comes amid a tariff dispute between the United States and China - two of Singapore's biggest export markets - which has disrupted global supply chains in a blow to growth in many trade-reliant economies including the city-state.

March's print was the biggest on-year decline since October 2016, when exports dropped 14 percent year-on-year, Refinitiv data showed.

"We now see that the decline is broad-based," Maybank Kim Eng economist Lee Ju Ye told Reuters.

"It is not just electronics, but pharmaceuticals as well."

Pharmaceutical exports, a sector known to be volatile, dived 36.5 percent in March from the previous year after posting a 12 percent growth in February.

Electronics exports in March plunged 26.7 percent year-on-year after an 8.2 contraction in February.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, exports contracted 14.3 percent in March after growing 16 percent in February. The poll called for a 7.1 percent contraction from the month before.

Last week, Singapore reported its weakest on-year economic growth in almost a decade.

"There may be a potential revision given that the trade numbers were quite weak," Lee said.

Singapore's central bank last week also kept its monetary settings unchanged after two consecutive rounds of tightening, citing slower growth and inflation as well as "significant" global economic risks.</s>SINGAPORE--Singapore's key non-oil exports fell sharply in March, partly due to a high base of comparison from the year ago.

Exports of goods made locally fell 11.7% in March compared with a year earlier, after a 4.8% growth in February, the trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said on Wednesday.

The median estimate of seven economists in a poll by The Wall Street Journal was for March exports to contract 2.2% from a year earlier.

Compared with the previous month, exports fell 14.3% in seasonally adjusted terms, after expanding 16.0% on month in February. Economists in the poll had projected a median 7.1% contraction in March.

The city-state's shipments to China, its biggest export destination, fell 8.7% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 34.2% on-year increase in the previous month, the data showed.

Exports to the European Union fell 15.1% on year after falling 11.8% in February. Exports to the United States, however, grew 23.1% after the previous month's 6.6% increase.

Electronics exports declined 26.7% on year, after falling 8.2% in February, while non-electronics shipments fell 7.0%, compared with a 9.4% rise in the previous month.

In the non-electronics sector, pharmaceutical exports fell 36.5% on year in March, after growing 12.0% in the previous month.</s>Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) slumped 11.7 per cent last month after a short-lived rise of 4.8 per cent in February, on the back of the biggest year-on-year drop in electronics exports since 2013.

Enterprise Singapore noted the "high-base" effect from a year ago as it released the export data yesterday. Still, the March figure was way worse than the 2.2 per cent drop expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. It was also the biggest year-on-year monthly fall in Nodx since the 12 per cent fall in October 2016.

Before February, exports slid year on year for three straight months. Recently, Singapore's economy also recorded its weakest year-on-year quarterly growth in a decade, as it expanded a mere 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

March's dismal Nodx showing was led by the 26.7 per cent year-on-year plunge in electronics exports, following the 8.2 per cent drop in the previous month, with the sector shrinking for about a year.

However, experts suggest this could be indicative of the regional electronics market.

Maybank economist Lee Ju Ye told The Straits Times: "We are seeing more signs of fading for the electronics sector, not just in Singapore but also in electronics powerhouses like South Korea and Taiwan."

She said the electronics down-cycle may be nearing its bottom, with a weak recovery on the cards.

Non-electronics exports declined 7 per cent year on year, a reverse from the 9.4 per cent increase seen in February. This was mainly due to the fall in shipments of pharmaceuticals (-36.5 per cent), specialised machinery (-24.4 per cent) and petrochemicals (-15.1 per cent).

However, DBS senior economist Irvin Seah said the pharmaceutical sector is volatile by nature. The overall plunge could be attributed to the "lingering effect of the trade war" as well as a high base and ongoing slowdown in China.

He also sounded a more optimistic note looking ahead.

"While there could be more downside risk ahead, the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and China is seeing light at the end of the tunnel," he said, adding that labour market conditions in the United States remained firm.

"Stimulus measures from China could also start to spill over to Singapore's export performance in the coming months," he added.

Nonetheless, some other experts warned of slower growth ahead.

"Overall, we remain cautious on the growth outlook," Nomura research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Charnon Boonnuch said in a statement, forecasting GDP growth this year to be at 2.5 per cent, slowing from last year's 3.2 per cent.

Singapore's non-oil exports to most of its top markets shrank last month, except for the United States (+23.1 per cent), Enterprise Singapore said yesterday.

Exports to Japan fell 36.6 per cent, following February's 42.6 per cent contraction. The other markets that saw large drops were Taiwan (-27.4 per cent) and Hong Kong (-22.4 per cent), while shipments to China shrank 8.7 per cent.

Non-oil re-exports grew 5.9 per cent last month, following February's 7.2 per cent increase, as growth in non-electronics re-exports outweighed the decline in electronics.

Total trade decreased over the year by 0.9 per cent last month, with exports declining by 3 per cent, while imports grew 1.5 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, total trade reached $84.2 billion last month, lower than February's $87.1 billion.</s>SINGAPORE’S export growth returned to the negative zone in March, partly on the previous year’s high base, according to government agency Enterprise Singapore (ESG) on Wednesday.

Non-oil domestic exports were down by 11.7 per cent year on year, far worse than the median decline of 2.2 per cent predicted in a Bloomberg poll of private economists.

This was against the 4.8 per cent export growth notched in February, which was revised mildly downwards from a preliminary figure of 4.9 per cent.

DBS senior economist Irvin Seah had said in a report just the previous day that there should be “some positive ‘payback’ in industrial production and export numbers in the coming months”, as manufacturing sentiment metrics in the region seemed to point to inventory restocking.

But the payback appears to not have been delivered, as exports of both electronic and non-electronic products fell in March.

Electronic shipments kept contracting, after an 8.2 per cent drop in February. Save for November 2018, electronic export growth was negative year on year throughout 2018.

The latest data shows that the sector’s exports shrank by 26.7 per cent year on year in March, dragged down by disc media, as well as personal computers and integrated circuits.

Meanwhile, non-electronic exports dropped by 7 per cent, compared with the 9.4 per cent increase notched in February - no thanks to double-digit contractions in pharmaceutical, specialised machinery and petrochemical shipments.

Exports from the volatile pharmaceutical cluster were down by 36.5 per cent year on year, with specialised machinery lower by 24.4 per cent and petrochemicals shrinking by 15.1 per cent.

Overall, non-oil domestic exports were down by 14.3 per cent on a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, against a 16 per cent expansion the month before.

Exports to almost all of Singapore’s top 10 markets were down in March, except for the United States. The fall was especially marked in Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

To top things off, exports to emerging markets also slid - to the tune of 21.9 per cent - with the decline led by markets in Latin America and the Caribbean.</s>Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) slumped 11.7 per cent last month, after a short-lived rise of 4.8 per cent in February, on the back of the biggest year-on-year drop for electronics exports since 2013.

It was also the biggest year-on-year monthly fall in Nodx since the 12 per cent fall in October 2016. The 11.7 per cent figure was way worse than the 2.2 per cent drop expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Before February, exports had slid year on year for three straight months. March's dismal showing was led by the 26.7 per cent year-on-year plunge in electronics exports, following the 8.2 per cent drop in the previous month, which means that this sector has contracted for about a year.

Experts say the weak electronics market may be indicative of the region, and are mixed on Singapore's performance ahead.

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Singapore's non-oil exports slumped in March, according to numbers released by Enterprise Singapore. This was the biggest year-on-year monthly drop since October 2016. The slump in the export of electronics was especially marked.