Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Shigeru Ishiba acknowledge the applause from their fellow Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers on Sept. 20 after Abe won a third term as party president. (Satoru Semba)

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe easily won a third term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Sept. 20, but signs of a “revolt” were seen among the party rank and file.

Abe, 63, secured the votes of about 80 percent of LDP lawmakers to overwhelm Shigeru Ishiba, 61, a former secretary-general who was Abe’s only challenger in the race.

The prime minister had also put in a huge effort to attract party members and supporters at the local level because Ishiba bested him in that area in the LDP presidential election held six years ago.

Abe, however, only gained about 55 percent of all votes at the local level.

Those in the Abe camp expressed shock at the figure, partly because the local numbers are said to more closely reflect public opinion.

One LDP member also said the numbers do not bode well for the Abe-led party in the Upper House election scheduled for summer 2019.

An LDP executive described the outcome as “a revolt from the local regions.”

In 10 prefectures, Ishiba received more votes than the incumbent.

Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and a rising star in the LDP, said he voted for Ishiba, as he had done in the previous election.

Five major LDP factions had expressed their support for Abe before the election, so there was little doubt that he would gain a huge majority among lawmakers.

A pre-election survey by The Asahi Shimbun found that about 80 percent of LDP lawmakers supported Abe while only about 50 Diet members said they backed Ishiba.

While 329 Diet members picked Abe, Ishiba gained the votes of 73 lawmakers, more than even those in the Ishiba camp expected.

Having secured wide support from LDP factions, Abe initially set a goal of winning at least 70 percent of votes among local party members and supporters to show that he had broad public support.

But once official campaigning started on Sept. 7, those aboard the Abe bandwagon toned down expectations about the local vote.

Akira Amari, a close ally to Abe, said they wanted to exceed the 55 percent of the total local vote that Ishiba garnered six years ago.

However, that seemed to be a low hurdle especially since Ishiba reached that figure while competing against four other candidates, including Abe.

This time around it was a two-man race, so Abe’s support at the local level of slightly over 55 percent would have to be considered disappointing.

Based on the distribution of local votes, Abe received 224 votes allocated to party members and supporters while Ishiba picked up 181 votes.

In total, Abe gained 553 votes while Ishiba ended up with 254.</s>TOKYO (AP) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide Thursday, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation's leader.

Abe handily defeated his sole challenger, Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister. Abe won 553, or about 70 percent, of 807 votes.

The decisive victory may embolden Abe to pursue his long-sought revision to Japan's U.S.-drafted pacifist constitution, although the hurdles remain high and doing so would carry political risks.

"It's time to tackle a constitutional revision," Abe said in a victory speech. "Now the fight is over."

"Let's work together to make a new Japan," he added.

Abe also said he is determined to use his last term to pursue his policy goals to "sum up" Japan's postwar diplomacy to ensure peace in the country.

The 63-year-old Abe has been prime minister since December 2012. He has cemented control of his party and received support from conservatives for bringing stability and continuity to economic and diplomatic policies. With a third term as party leader, Abe is poised to become Japan's longest-serving leader in August 2021.

Abe has said he is determined to push for a revision to the U.S.-drafted 1947 constitution, a decades-old pledge of the Liberal Democratic Party since its foundation in 1955 and a goal that none of Abe's predecessors has been able to achieve.

Many conservatives see the constitution as a humiliation imposed on Japan following its World War II defeat.

While Abe won 80 percent of parliamentarian votes Thursday, support from regional rank-and-file party members was 55 percent, though it was within earlier projections.

Experts see a margin of victory in regional member votes as a more accurate indicator of general public sentiment than the parliamentarian votes. Abe's weaker showing in that segment means he will have to be more mindful of their voices in carrying out his policies.

Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe acknowledges applause from the LDP lawmakers shortly after his name was called as the winner of the ruling party presidential elections at its headquarters in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018. Prime Minister Abe was re-elected Thursday to a third term as leader of the ruling party, paving the way for him to serve as prime minister for up to three more years. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe receives applause from the LDP lawmakers shortly after his name was called as the winner of the ruling party presidential elections at its headquarters in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018. Prime Minister Abe was re-elected Thursday to a third term as leader of the ruling party, paving the way for him to serve as prime minister for up to three more years. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe bows as he receives applause from the LDP lawmakers shortly after his name was called as the winner of the ruling party presidential elections at its headquarters in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018. Prime Minister Abe was re-elected Thursday to a third term as leader of the ruling party, paving the way for him to serve as prime minister for up to three more years. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)</s>Tokyo: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won comfortable re-election as leader of his ruling party Thursday, setting him on course to become Japan’s longest-serving premier and realise his dream of reforming the constitution. The 63-year-old conservative secured 553 votes against 254 won by former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, a hawkish self-confessed “military geek”, in a two-horse race for leader of the Liberal Democratic Party.

The win effectively hands Abe three more years as PM, giving him the chance of breaking the record for the nation’s longest serving premiership held by Taro Katsura, a revered politician who served three times between 1901 and 1913.

Public support for Abe — a political thoroughbred whose grandfather and father both held power — has recovered after he managed to survive a series of cronyism and cover-up scandals. Now reconfirmed in power, Abe will head to New York this weekend to attend the UN General Assembly and hold a summit with US President Donald Trump.

Abe and Trump, who enjoy each other’s company on the golf course and are close diplomatic allies, are expected to analyse the latest inter-Korean summit. But they will also have to confront a growing trade dispute as Trump sees Tokyo among “unfair” trade partners.

While Japanese voters put the economy and social security as their top priorities, Abe aims to use the election to push his dream of reforming the country’s post-World War II pacifist constitution. Nationalist Abe has frequently voiced his wish to rewrite the charter, imposed by the victorious US occupiers, which forces the country to “forever renounce war” and dictates that armed forces will “never be maintained”.

Abe insists any changes would merely remove the country’s well-equipped Self-Defense Forces from the constitutional paradox whereby they should not technically exist. “It’s time to stipulate both the Self-Defense Forces and the protection of Japan’s peace and independence in the constitution,” Abe said in his last stump speech in Tokyo.

But any changes to the text would be hugely sensitive in pacifist Japan and almost certainly greeted with fury in China and the Koreas, 20th-century victims of Japanese military aggression. Even if Abe manages to force a revision through parliament, he would face a referendum, raising the prospect of a Brexit-style political meltdown if the people vote against him, said Yu Uchiyama, political scientist from the University of Tokyo.

In addition, surveys show that tinkering with the legal text is far from top of most Japanese voters’ to-do list, as the country faces an ageing and declining population and a still-sluggish economy. Acknowledging concerns over the economic outlook, Abe said he plans to introduce “bold” stimulus measures to ease the expected impact of a tax hike scheduled for October next year.

Japan’s economy has been expanding for the past few years at a slow pace thanks to the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and huge government spending, which have led to a weak yen — a key positive element for Japanese exporters.

But analysts warned US-led trade wars could be a major risk factor for an economy still struggling to win a long battle against deflation. Local media said Abe plans to reshuffle his cabinet on October 1. However, he is expected to retain Vice Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, a political ally who has backed his “Abenomics” strategy to stimulate the world’s third-largest economy.</s>Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has been re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation’s leader.

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has been re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation’s leader.

Thursday’s decisive victory may embolden him to pursue his long-sought revision to Japan’s US-drafted pacifist constitution, although the hurdles remain high and doing so would carry political risks.

The 63-year-old has been prime minister since December 2012.

He has cemented control of his party and received support from conservatives for bringing stability and continuity to economic and diplomatic policies.

With a third term as party leader, Mr Abe is poised to become Japan’s longest-serving leader in August 2021.</s>TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide Thursday, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation’s leader.

Abe handily defeated his sole challenger, Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister. Abe won 553, or about 70 percent, of 807 votes.

The decisive victory may embolden Abe to pursue his long-sought revision to Japan’s U.S.-drafted pacifist constitution, although the hurdles remain high and doing so would carry political risks.

“It’s time to tackle a constitutional revision,” Abe said in a victory speech. “Now the fight is over.”

“Let’s work together to make a new Japan,” he added.

Abe also said he is determined to use his last term to pursue his policy goals to “sum up” Japan’s postwar diplomacy to ensure peace in the country.

The 63-year-old Abe has been prime minister since December 2012. He has cemented control of his party and received support from conservatives for bringing stability and continuity to economic and diplomatic policies. With a third term as party leader, Abe is poised to become Japan’s longest-serving leader in August 2021.

Abe has said he is determined to push for a revision to the U.S.-drafted 1947 constitution, a decades-old pledge of the Liberal Democratic Party since its foundation in 1955 and a goal that none of Abe’s predecessors has been able to achieve.

Many conservatives see the constitution as a humiliation imposed on Japan following its World War II defeat.

While Abe won 80 percent of parliamentarian votes Thursday, support from regional rank-and-file party members was 55 percent, though it was within earlier projections.

Experts see a margin of victory in regional member votes as a more accurate indicator of general public sentiment than the parliamentarian votes. Abe’s weaker showing in that segment means he will have to be more mindful of their voices in carrying out his policies.

More: At least 7 dead, millions without power as earthquake rocks Japan's Hokkaido island</s>Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation’s leader.

Thursday’s decisive victory may embolden him to pursue his long-sought revision to Japan’s U.S.-drafted pacifist constitution, although the hurdles remain high and doing so would carry political risks.

The 63-year-old Abe has been prime minister since December 2012. He has cemented control of his party and received support from conservatives for bringing stability and continuity to economic and diplomatic policies. With a third term as party leader, Abe is poised to become Japan’s longest-serving leader in August 2021.</s>Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected as head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide Thursday, paving the way for up to three more years as the nation’s leader.

The decisive victory may embolden Abe to pursue his long-sought revision to Japan’s U.S.-drafted pacifist constitution, although the hurdles remain high and doing so would carry political risks.

“It’s time to tackle a constitutional revision,” Abe said in a victory speech. “Now the fight is over.”

Abe said he’s determined to use his last term to pursue his policy goals to “sum up” Japan’s postwar diplomacy to ensure peace in the country.

“Let’s work together to make a new Japan,” he said.

Abe, who has been prime minister since December 2012, has cemented control of his party and received support from conservatives for bringing stability and continuity to economic and diplomatic policies. With a third term as party leader, Abe is poised to become Japan’s longest-serving leader in August 2021.

Still, he faces several challenges, including dealing with Japan’s aging and declining population, a royal succession in the spring, and a consumption tax hike to 10 percent he has already delayed twice. He faces security concerns stemming from North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and China’s increasingly assertive activity in the region, as well as intensifying trade friction with the U.S. which could shake his friendly relations with President Donald Trump.

Abe has said he is determined to push for a revision to the U.S.-drafted 1947 constitution, a decades-old pledge of the Liberal Democratic Party since its foundation in 1955 and a goal that none of Abe’s predecessors has been able to achieve.

Abe has said he hopes his party could submit a draft constitution revision to a parliamentary session later this year ahead of a national referendum. Abe is proposing to add a clause to Article 9, which bans the use of force in settling international disputes, to explicitly permit the existence of Japan’s military, now called the Self-Defense Force.

Many conservatives see the constitution as a humiliation imposed on Japan following its World War II defeat. Among them was Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who served as prime minister 1957-1960. Kishi was imprisoned as a suspected war criminal during the U.S. occupation.

Constitutional revision is divisive and it’s unclear whether Abe could get enough votes for passage.

Abe and his senior party members want to rush a revision while their ruling coalition still holds two-thirds super majority in both houses — a requirement to propose a revision. The next parliamentary election is due next summer.

For the public, the constitution is a lesser concern than issues such as pay, education and the high cost of child care, surveys show.

If a revision is voted down in a national referendum, Abe would likely have to step down

Abe has survived a series of scandals, including cronyism allegations against him and his wife. Despite attacks from opposition parties and criticism in the media, he has seen his support ratings bounce back to about 40 percent, considered high for a Japanese leader after nearly six years in office.

An extended term for Abe is generally seen as good news for stability and continuity.

“A stable government under a strong leader is good for the economy and diplomacy, and Prime Minister Abe has established a rather significant presence in diplomacy,” said Yu Uchiyama, a University of Tokyo politics professor.

But his long and strong leadership has caused a lack of political competitiveness, Uchiyama said.

“The biggest concern about Japanese politics is how to restore competition in politics and reactivate democracy,” Uchiyama said.

In Thursday’s leadership vote, Abe handily defeated his sole challenger, Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister. Abe won 553, or about 70 percent, of 807 votes.

Abe took 80 percent of parliamentarian votes, while support from regional rank-and-file party members was at 55 percent, though it fell within projections.

Experts see the margin of victory in regional member votes as a more accurate indicator of general public sentiment than the parliamentarian votes. Abe’s softer showing there means he will have to be more mindful of voices coming from outside parliament.

Abe’s dominance has been bolstered by the strengthening of the Prime Minister’s Office, allowing him and his party executives to monopolize decisions over policies and personnel affairs, experts say. The system has accommodated Abe’s long reign, as many lawmakers are primarily interested in getting Abe and other senior lawmakers’ backing in elections.</s>PM Shinzo Abe of the LDP is re-elected to serve the third term as the president of the ruling party

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the clear favorite to be re-elected the president of the ruling LDP and he duly obliged. Hence, Abe will serve a third term consecutively after defeating a spirited Shigeru Ishiba. Therefore, continuity will remain under Abe but he still knows that the rank and file of party members is more evenly divided – rather than lawmakers in the Japanese Diet who overwhelmingly voted for Abe.

Factionalism once more played into the hands of Abe over Ishiba because he doesn’t carry the same political clout. This meant that Taro Aso, Hiroyuki Hosoda, Nobuteru Ishihara, Fumio Kishida, and Toshihiro Nikai all plumbed for Abe. Ishiba, understanding the power of political factionalism in the body politic of Japan, knew that he faced a mountain to climb against Abe but he still gave it his best shot.

Interestingly, unlike lawmakers who overwhelmingly supported Abe, the rank and file of party members listened to both Abe and Ishiba from a more neutral stance. The result of this was that Abe won 224 votes to 181 for Ishiba. Hence, Abe knows that discontent exists in other areas of the political system and that the rank and file of party members is more evenly balanced – even if he still came out on top.

After emerging victorious, Abe stipulated, “I will put all my strength and soul into fulfilling my duty.”

Abe continued by stating, “It’s now time to tackle a revision to the Constitution.”

USA Today sums up the situation, this media source reports, “Experts see a margin of victory in regional member votes as a more accurate indicator of general public sentiment than the parliamentarian votes. Abe’s weaker showing in that segment means he will have to be more mindful of their voices in carrying out his policies.”

Overall, Abe is clearly delighted to be re-elected and he will focus on areas that mean so much to him, like the Constitution. Yet, Abe must try to connect with the rank and file of party members – and the electorate – because outside the factional world of the Japanese Diet, it is clear that the people of Japan are more divided.

Modern Tokyo News is part of the Modern Tokyo Times group

DONATIONS to SUPPORT MODERN TOKYO TIMES – please pay PayPal and DONATE to sawakoart@gmail.com</s>TOKYO (AP) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to be re-elected by his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a third term as its leader on Thursday, paving the way for him to serve as prime minister for up to three more years. Key things to know about Abe and his policies:

Abe, 63, a hawkish conservative from the long-dominant pro-U.S., pro-business Liberal Democratic Party, is one of Japan's longest-serving leaders and the first born after World War II. He is a political blue blood whose grandfather was prime minister shortly after the war and father was a foreign minister. He has been in office since December 2012, after an earlier 2006-2007 stint ended abruptly due to health problems. Japan went through six prime ministers - virtually one a year - between September 2006 and Abe's comeback in 2012. Political experts say Abe's dominance is bolstered by the strengthening of the Prime Minister's Office, which has allowed Abe and his party executives to monopolize decisions over policies and personnel affairs.

If Abe wins the party vote, he is expected to be re-elected as prime minister when parliament - where the ruling coalition controls two-thirds majorities - reconvenes, likely in late October. He will need to form a strong government to keep those majorities in elections next summer. Abe enjoys public approval ratings of about 40 percent, high for a leader who has been in office nearly six years. He has solid support from conservatives who back his right-wing agenda. Helped by an economic recovery, he has won repeated national election victories in the absence of a viable opposition.

WHAT HE HAS DONE

Abe takes credit for an "Abenomics" program that has employed a super-easy monetary policy to lift Japan's economy from years of deflation and boost job and stock indicators. Critics say the effects are gradually wearing off and benefits have not trickled down to consumers. He has pushed for a greater international role for Japan's military by reinterpreting the war-renouncing constitution to allow troops to defend allies under foreign attack. While maintaining a close alliance with the United States, he has bolstered military cooperation and weapons development with Britain, Australia, France, India and some Asian countries in response to China's military activity in the region and North Korea's nuclear and missile threat.

Abe plans to stake his final term on a revision of the constitution, drafted by the U.S. during Japan's post-World War II occupation. The public overwhelmingly welcomed a democratic constitution, but many conservatives trying to restore Japan's prewar values see the charter as a U.S. imposition and symbol of Japan's humiliation. "I will tackle constitutional revision, a challenge that nobody could achieve 70 years after the war, to pioneer a new era for Japan," Abe said in a debate last week. He wants military forces to be specifically accepted in the constitution. Media polls show divided popular opinion, but that most people oppose any change under Abe and want the economy and social security issues to be prioritized instead.

Abe has two other long-unresolved goals. One is the normalization of diplomatic relations with North Korea, including the settlement of the issue of Japanese citizens abducted to North Korea decades ago. The other is the settlement of island territorial disputes with Russia and the signing of a peace treaty formally ending their World War II hostilities. He also faces trade issues with the U.S., an aging and declining population in Japan, and an imperial succession next year.

FILE - In this Dec. 26, 2012, file photo, then Japan's prime-minister-to-be Shinzo Abe has his diet lapel pin attached to his jacket as he arrives at the parliament for the special diet session in Tokyo. Abe is expected to be re-elected by his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a third term as its leader on Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018, paving the way for him to serve as prime minister for up to three more years. (AP Photo/Kyodo News)/Kyodo News via AP)</s>Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put doubts about his political future to rest on Thursday by winning an overwhelming victory over challenger Shigeru Ishiba for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, consolidating control of the party and all but ensuring another three-year term as leader of his country.

Abe is the first Prime Minister to secure a third term after the rules were changed to permit it. Among other things, his victory will keep him in office during the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. More importantly, he is now well-positioned to implement changes to Japan’s constitution allowing the Japanese military to act more assertively in defense of the country.

Revising the pacifist constitution has been a goal of the Liberal Democratic Party since the days of Abe’s grandfather, who served as Prime Minister in the late 1950s. As the Associated Press pointed out on Thursday, changing the constitution would have important cultural ramifications for Japan, where many see the 1947 document as a humiliation imposed by the U.S. occupation after World War 2.

Abe is well aware of the momentous nature of changing the constitution, as well as the stiff opposition he faces from pacifists in Japan, and has proceeded carefully with his agenda. A historic third term as prime minister after a commanding party election victory will present him with the optimum moment to push for the change.

“I will settle the accounts of our postwar foreign policy to make peace and stability more secure for this country. Together with you, I will embark on the task of revising the constitution,” Abe declared on Thursday.

The UK Guardian notes, however, that Abe has scaled back the changes he envisions for the constitution and plans to retain its prohibition against aggressive warfare and the use of force to settle international disputes. The Japanese public seems to be modestly in favor of changing the constitution, although a hefty 40 percent is undecided. Countries with long and unpleasant memories of the World War era, prominently including China and South Korea, will be watching Abe’s constitutional proposals carefully.

His victory is all the more impressive because Abe’s future was cloudy just a few months ago, with a bizarre corruption scandal nipping at his heels, his approval ratings dropping, and the odd government official committing suicide.

In the end, his re-election race was not close, as Nikkei Asian Review reported:

Abe, who turns 64 on Friday, won 553 of the 807 votes cast. His challenger, 61-year-old former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, managed just 254. The election was decided by parliamentary members and rank-and-file party members, with each controlling half of the total votes. The prime minister garnered 82% of the parliamentary vote, but among rank-and-file members support was a more modest 55%. “Abe has achieved the basic goal [of scoring a solid win], but the results also showed that there is some discontent,” said Naoto Nonaka, professor of political science at Tokyo’s Gakushuin University. Nonaka said that Abe’s push for revising the nation’s pacifist constitution may have cost him some support, even as most party members support his economic policies. Abe underlined the fact that he won 69% of the total vote, saying this margin is more than Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers of previous decades had gained and that he takes the outcome as a “strong mandate for his leadership.”

Approval for Abe’s economic policies, the Japanese business community’s hunger for political stability, and foreign policy issues such as North Korea are seen as important factors in his victory. His cabinet also helpfully maintained steady approval ratings even as Abe’s numbers dipped during the influence-peddling scandal. Throughout his political travails at home, Abe has enjoyed respect as a shrewd diplomat and keen student of international strategy.

The Wall Street Journal attributes Abe’s economic success to a weak currency and strong exports. Profits earned in foreign currency by overseas operations blossomed upon returning to Japan’s shorts. Growth has been steady, with significantly better corporate earnings than U.S. companies throughout the Obama administration. Even those who find the current Japanese economy sluggish and believe it could do better also seem keenly aware it could do a lot worse.

Abe’s third term will include a few significant challenges besides the ongoing North Korea saga and Chinese aggression in the South and East China Seas, including trade disputes with the United States, the possibly insoluble problem of Japan’s demographic collapse and the impending royal succession, which has a few interesting demographic quirks of its own.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe is elected for a third term as President of the Liberal Democratic Party.