CLOSE The leader of Catalonia said the referendum vote is Oct. 1. It's the country's latest push to separate from Spain. Video provided by Newsy Newslook

Catalonia's regional president, Carles Puigdemont, at the Catalan government headquarters, in Barcelona, Spain, on Sept. 27, 2017. (Photo: AP)

Carles Puigdemont intends to become leader of the world's newest independent state next week. Instead, he may spark a violent confrontation with Spanish authorities and wind up in jail.

Puigdemont, 54, a former journalist and president of Spain's semi-autonomous region of Catalonia in northeastern Spain, vowed Thursday to press ahead with an independence referendum on Sunday despite efforts by the national government to block it.

"It's very clear to me that if I go to prison over this it's only because of my political beliefs. That would leave Spanish democracy in a very weak position," Puigdemont told USA TODAY in a phone interview Thursday. "As president, I have the right to call a referendum based on a law that the Catalan parliament has approved. The vote will go ahead."

The central government in Madrid insists the vote is illegal and has taken steps to block it. It has seized millions of ballots, detained 14 senior officials organizing the vote, shut down election websites and deployed thousands of police to bar access to voting stations.

The vote is the most serious political crisis facing Spain since it returned to democracy following the death of longtime military dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

The independence drive is fueled by the belief that Catalonia and its tourist-mecca capital, Barcelona, give more than they get from Madrid and that the region's unique culture and language are not respected by the Spanish state, according to Puigdemont.

The wealthy region, where 7.5 million of Spain's 46 million people live, accounts for approximately one-fifth of the country's economy. It is one of 17 semi-autonomous Spanish regions.

If the vote takes place, and passes convincingly, Puigdemont has said he would announce a split from Spain within 48 hours. Two years ago, 80% of Catalan voters backed independence in a symbolic vote, but turnout was less than 40%, muddying its conclusiveness.

An opinion poll from July showed 49% of Catalans oppose independence to 41% in favor. Nationally, most Spaniards, who aren't eligible to vote, oppose a separate state.

The United Kingdom's government allowed Scotland to hold an independence referendum in 2014 and the measure lost, with 55% of Scots preferring to remain part of Britain.

By contrast, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy insists the Catalonia vote "won't happen." Speaking alongside President Trump at the White House on Tuesday, he said it would be "ridiculous" if Catalonia declares independence. Trump agreed. "I think the people of Catalonia should stay with Spain. I think it would be foolish not to," Trump said.

Jose Manuel Maza, Spain's top public prosecutor, said if the vote does occur, Puigdemont could be charged with civil disobedience and for misusing public funds. The latter offense carries a prison sentence of up to eight years.

Catalonia's push for independence gained momentum during the country's financial crisis, said Neil Davidson, a political scientist at the University Glasgow who studies independence movements. Spain's economy has recovered about a third of the 3 million jobs it lost during the depth of the 2008 recession, but its unemployment rate is still at 18%.

"Catalans have this feeling that they would simply be better off on their own," he said.

In the interview, Puigdemont said he is concerned the Madrid government might deliberately inflame tensions with a provocative action. It would be "highly suspicious" if "somehow, at a time when Madrid has put thousands of police on our streets, an incident happens," he said.

Alex Ramos, a doctor and vice president of Catalan Civil Society, an organization against independence, said there is little difference between Catalonians and Spaniards, and the referendum is not a realistic solution to economic or cultural grievances.

"Spain's different regions are like a family. And families don't split up by tossing a coin in the air and seeing how it lands," he said

Antonio Barroso, a Spanish national who analyzes European economic and political affairs in London for the consulting firm Teneo Intelligence, questioned whether the real purpose of the vote is to gain concessions from Madrid.

"We know that independence won't happen," he said. "Even if Puigdemont and his allies declare independence unilaterally, nobody — not Spain, not the European Union — will recognize Catalonia as an independent state. He knows that. This is the reality."

Puigdemont expressed frustration that the EU has not done more to support what he called the "violation of fundamental rights in Catalonia." He said Madrid's crackdown on the vote means Catalans are being "deprived of the freedom of speech," but the EU is "not saying anything about this at all."

Earlier this month, Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, said the Spanish government's decisions should be respected.

On Thursday, two United Nations rights experts criticized the Spanish authorities.

"Regardless of the lawfulness of the referendum, the Spanish authorities have a responsibility to respect those rights that are essential to democratic societies," David Kaye and Alfred de Zayas said in a statement. "The measures we are witnessing are worrying because they appear to violate fundamental individual rights, cutting off public information and the possibility of debate at a critical moment for Spain’s democracy."

Puigdemont said that he did not know of any country, including the United States, that had exercised the right to self-determination and then regretted it.

"Therefore, it must be a good thing," he said.

Read or Share this story: https://usat.ly/2k7XcUY</s>A planned vote in Catalonia on Sunday on independence from Spain will not go ahead, Spain's government spokesman Inigo Mendez de Vigo said on Friday.

MADRID: A planned vote in Catalonia on Sunday on independence from Spain will not go ahead, Spain's government spokesman Inigo Mendez de Vigo said on Friday.

"I insist that there will be no referendum on Oct. 1," Mendez de Vigo said during a press conference following the weekly cabinet meeting, reiterating the government's position that the vote was illegal.</s>Would going it alone work for Catalonia?

The Spanish region is holding an independence referendum on Sunday with major economic implications for the country -- and Europe.

The vote, which is fiercely opposed by Spain's central government, comes as the country emerges from nearly a decade of economic trauma. Catalonia is its most economically productive region.

Richer on their own?

Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spain's economy, and leads all regions in producing 25% of the country's exports.

It contributes much more in taxes (21% of the country's total) than it gets back from the government.

Independence supporters have seized on the imbalance, arguing that stopping transfers to Madrid would turn Catalonia's budget deficit into a surplus.

Catalonia has a proven record of attracting investment, with nearly a third of all foreign companies in Spain choosing the regional capital of Barcelona as their base.

Volkswagen (VLKAY) and Nissan (NSANF), for example, both have plants near Barcelona.

Related: Catalonia on collision course as banned referendum nears

But there are many unanswered questions -- including continued membership in the European Union.

If Catalonia was forced to independently apply for EU membership, it would have to convince all of the bloc's current members to agree -- including Spain.

"We currently see no practical way for Catalonia to become an independent country within the EU, as most supporters of independence want," economists at Berenberg Bank wrote in a research note.

Dropping out of bloc would likely raise the cost of exporting goods produced in Catalonia to EU members and other nations.

"It would join the small list of countries that are not World Trade Organization members, meaning it would face significant trade barriers," said Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics.

Brown said the move would increase the price of imported goods in Catalonia and result in job losses.

Independence could also make it more expensive for the region's government to borrow. Credit ratings agencies Moody's and S&P both downgraded Catalonia's debt rating in 2016.

The region could continue using the euro as its currency, but would not have a seat at the European Central Bank.

Spain's highest court has banned the referendum, calling it unconstitutional. But the separatist regional government is pushing ahead with the vote.

A split would leave a hole in Spain's finances and dramatically increase uncertainty.

If Catalonia declares independence unilaterally, it might also refuse to take on its share of the national debt.

"While there does not appear to have been any serious effect on the wider Spanish economy so far, it is likely that business and consumer confidence would deteriorate if Catalonia were to secede," Brown said.

The buzzword for investors is uncertainty.

"As with Brexit, we believe that any Catalexit would plunge the region into a long period of uncertainty and would most probably be negative for the private sector," ING economist Geoffrey Minne wrote in a research note.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at City Index, said a referendum win for the separatists could cause the euro to decline by as much as 5%.

However, even a decisive "yes" vote is unlikely to result in Madrid or the EU recognizing Catalonia as "independent."

"The Catalan government will instead attempt to use a positive referendum result to increase its leverage in future negotiations with the Spanish government," said Laurence Allan of IHS Markit.</s>Catalonia, a region of northeast Spain with a population of 7.5 million, is moving ahead with a hugely contentious independence referendum to be held on Sunday as Spain’s central government pledges to prevent it from taking place.

The Spanish government has confiscated ballot boxes, detained Catalan officials, blocked electoral websites, and threatened sedition charges for anyone who helps facilitate the vote. Thousands of Spanish police officers have been deployed to Barcelona, Catalonia’s capital, and other towns, leading to the potential for confrontation or even violence. Catalans have begun to occupy polling places, challenging security forces to kick them out.

“The government will have big difficulties stopping the referendum in the territory, the state simply cannot control the whole region, but they will try to prevent it taking place in key areas such as Barcelona,” Lluis Orriols Galve, a professor of politics at the Carlos III University of Madrid, told Al Jazeera.

Polls have shown that support for independence has hovered below 50%, with the vast majority of people approving of the chance to put the issue to a vote.

In 2010, Spain’s Constitutional Court struck down a law that would have given Catalonia “nation status” within Spain. The court also blocked a 2014 attempt at a referendum, which evolved into a non-binding poll in which 80% of voters favored independence – but with less than half of the electorate participating. The leader who orchestrated that vote, Artur Mas, was banned from holding public office for two years.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who fiercely opposes the referendum, has much to lose politically. If Catalonia votes for independence, or the vote turns into a fiasco, he could be pushed out of power.

Catalonia, where residents speak Catalan as opposed to the Castilian Spanish spoken almost everywhere else in the country, has maintained a strong regional identity for hundreds of years, and its history has been punctuated with bouts of separatist fervor dating back to the 17th century. “We have been waiting for this moment for 300 years,” one enthusiastic teenager told the New York Times.

Catalonia briefly became its own republic within the Iberian Federation in the early 1930’s, and Barcelona was at the vanguard of the resistance to General Francisco Franco. But after Franco triumphed in the country’s traumatic civil war, he repressed Catalan culture during his decades in power. After Franco died and Spain transitioned to democracy in the mid-1970s, Barcelona was granted semi-autonomous status, and the region developed into an economically thriving tourist magnet, boosted by Barcelona’s successful 1992 Olympics. Catalonia is the country’s most prosperous region.

Spain was left economically devastated by the global recession that began in 2008, with unemployment rates rivaling the United States during the Great Depression. Many Catalans resented the central government’s role in the country’s crisis, and felt that Catalonia, as an economic powerhouse, was being shortchanged by Madrid. Such economic grievances fueled the thirst for true independence in the region, which had never really gone away.

If Catalonia does vote for independence and manages to break away from Spain, both sides are likely take a hit. Whether Catalonia could prosper as an independent nation is an open question – as it what will happen on Sunday.</s>On Sunday millions of Catalans will go to the polls in a vote that could lead to the break up of Spain.

The result of the referendum is being watched around the world.

There are fears it could result in bloodshed on the streets if Madrid refuses to accept the result.

And there are worries it will fuel independent movements in other European states.

Here is your guide to why the Catalans are voting, what Madrid thinks and what could happen next.

What is happening in Catalonia and could it lead to the break up of Spain?

On October 1 the Catalans will hold a referendum on independence from Spain.

The Catalan government voted overwhelmingly on September 6 this year to hold the poll.

The Government in Madrid insists the referendum is illegal and defies the Constitution which says the country is indivisible.

The question on the ballot paper reads: “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?”

If the majority vote yes the Catalan government, called the Generalitat, has vowed to start the process of breaking away from Spain within 48 hours.

Why does Catalonia want independence?

Catalonia sees itself as separate from Spain with its own language, literature and culture.

The country was an independent kingdom until 1715 when it came under the direct control of Madrid and the Catalan language was declared illegal.

It was briefly granted limited autonomy in the 1930s but after General Franco won the civil war he seized back control to Madrid and suppressed the Catalan language, Catalan names and even the national dance.

After Franco’s death in 1975 both Catalonia and the Basque country were given some independent powers.

The independence movement came back to life after the economic crash in 2008. Catalonia, the economic power house of the Spanish peninsula, resents that its taxes are redistributed by Madrid across the rest of Spain.

Its demands for greater tax raising powers were also rebuffed by Madrid.

In October 2014 the Catalan president Artur Mas held a non-binding referendum on independence. Of the two million who voted 80% backed calls for Catalonia to be an independent state.

Earlier this year Mas was banned from public office by the Madrid courts for holding the vote.

What is happening now?

In June this year the new Catalan president Carles Puigdemont announced plans for this Sunday’s referendum.

He says the vote will be binding and if a majority vote yes he will start the process immediately of breaking away from Spain.

This includes setting up a Catalan tax raising authority, independent legal system and national police.

Spain has declared the referendum illegal and has sent thousands of police to Catalonia to try to seize ballot boxes and ballot papers.

It has threatened to arrest more than 700 local mayors who help stage elections. Printing presses, newspapers and offices have been raided by the Spanish authorities and 15 civil servants were held last week .

What is the position of Madrid?

The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says the Spanish constitution must be upheld.

Many blame Rajoy for fuelling discontent in Catalonia by refusing to negotiate with the Generalitat on handing the country more autonomy.

The right-wing Rajoy is backed by the Spanish socialist party and the conservative Ciudadamos party who fear losing support in other regions of Spain if they allow the Catalans to separate.

What happens if they vote for independence?

Much will depend on the turnout. Polls put support for independence around 50-50 but many of those who want to stay in Spain are unlikely to take part in what they regard as an illegal ballot.

This means the yes vote will win on Sunday.

Madrid will declare the result invalid but Puigdemont claims it will gives him the legitimate right to declare independence.

Rajoy could then decide to trigger article 155 of the constitution to suspend Catalan autonomy.

There are fears he could also send in the troops and arrest the pro-independence Catalan politicians who voted for the referendum.

The risk for the Prime Minister is a heavy-handed response will fuel further resentment and lead to civil unrest.

The rest of Europe will be watching closely amid fears it will encourage independent causes in Flanders, Scotland and Lombardy in Italy.

EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has not ruled out an independent Catalonia joining the EU but it would be met with fierce resistance from Madrid and other countries fearing breakaway movements.</s>The flag of Catalonia and pro-Catalan independence posters are virtually everywhere in Barcelona. Each night at 10 pm, Catalonians who call for their autonomous region to separate from Spain bang pots and pans to express their support for a referendum, which the Catalan parliament approved and scheduled for October 1. If held, the referendum, which Spain’s central government and the country’s constitutional court have declared “illegal” and “unconstitutional,” will offer Catalonians an opportunity to vote in favor of independence from Spain.

Catalonian nationalism, deeply rooted in northeastern Spain, is nothing new. It was a root cause of the Spanish Civil War, and Catalonian nationalism grew significantly after the Francisco Franco regime, which held power from the 1930s to the 1970s, rammed Spanish nationalism down the throats of Catalonians. A common narrative among Catalonians is that they continue to live under an oppressive Spanish occupation.

The idea of separating from the rest of Spain and establishing an officially independent Catalonian state became increasingly popular as a consequence of the 2008 global financial crisis. The perceptions that too much of Barcelona and the rest of the region’s wealth had gone to poorer parts of Spain since the global crash have added momentum to the movements and organizations in Catalonia that call for independence. A common argument made in favor of independence is that the region’s 7.5 million could benefit from improved economic conditions with higher salaries if Catalonia separated from Spain. This month, Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia, articulated his belief that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government was bringing authoritarianism of the Franco era back to Spain and damaging the country’s democracy. This month, too, Puigdemont condemned Madrid’s crackdown on the referendum as a “coordinated aggression” by a government that “crossed the red line that separated it from totalitarian regimes.” The Catalan president maintained that the region would not “return to times past.”

In 2014, Catalonians informally held a plebiscite for independence, which passed with 80 percent voting in favor, yet turnout was only 37 percent. The vote was largely symbolic, and officials in Madrid declared that it had to legitimacy. How the referendum early next month will unfold is unclear, yet it will likely be different from 2014.

Over the past several weeks, national police have arrested Catalan senior officials and others behind this referendum, seized 10 million ballot papers, raided government buildings, and shut down websites that provided information about the referendum. A spokesman for the government in Catalonia compared Madrid’s actions to those of the governments of China, North Korea, and Turkey, maintaining that “no western democracy” could take such moves which constitute an “unlawful repression of the institutions of autonomy of Catalonia.”

A common argument in favor of the referendum is that the vote is about much more than the idea of Catalonian independence and that holding the referendum is about democracy and protection of political rights and civil liberties. These arrests, raids, and acts of online censorship have led to largescale protests with up to 40,000 people taking to the streets of Barcelona throughout this month.

Officials in Madrid have vowed to take legal action against all who play any role in organizing the referendum, ferrying in 4,000 members of Spain’s Guardia Civil into Barcelona earlier this month. They have received orders to take control of polling booths set up for the independence vote on October 1. It’s not clear if the Guardia Civil will physically prevent voters from entering booths, and if so how the Catalonians who are determined to hold their independence referendum would respond.

Despite threats from Spain’s central authorities, Puigdemont condemned the country’s central government for taking “repressive and intolerant” actions and vowed that the referendum would go ahead. The Mossos d‘Esquadra (the regional police) have received orders from Catalonia’s prosecutor to protect and control voting booths in the region on September 30. Although pro-independence movements in Catalonia have remained peaceful over the years, a massive police presence and the possibility of the central government invoking emergency powers to take administrative control of Catalonia might push tensions past a breaking point.

The Catalan parliament has stated that it will unilaterally declare national independence within 48 hours if more than half of the voters choose yes—regardless of how many turn out to vote. Under such circumstances, Spain would face its gravest constitutional since the crushed coup of 1981.

If Catalonia made such a unilateral declaration of independence, Rajoy’s government could cite article 155 of the Spanish constitution (which no Spanish government has done before) as the legal basis for Madrid taking administrative control of Catalonia. The government in Catalonia has increased its staff at its new tax authority, a strong suggestion that the local authorities are preparing for a future in which they begin collecting taxes that previously went to the capital of Spain. If Spain’s central government uses force to demonstrate that the autonomous region cannot violate the constitution, Rajoy could add more fuel to Catalans’ drive for independence, which could backfire against Madrid.

The prospects for an independent Catalan state in northeastern Spain raises many questions about Spain’s future and that of Catalonia. Would the United Nations recognize Catalonia as an independent nation? Would the European Union make Catalonia the bloc’s newest member? How would the division of Spain impact the rest of Europe and the United States? If officials in Madrid use a heavy hand to stop the vote, how would the international community react?

Other European powers have backed Madrid, but to a limited extent, especially following the raids and arrests throughout Catalonia this month. Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s chief executive, emphasized that the “Prodi doctrine” will determine if/when an independent Catalonian state could ever join the EU. The 13-year-old doctrine mandates that any breakaway state would be required to leave the EU and could only join later if its independence was achieved without violating the constitutional law of the EU member from which it separated.

For now, it seems that Madrid’s Western allies are playing it careful. Whereas US President Donald Trump took the same position as his predecessor did, expressing his support for a unified Spain, the State Department appeared to be hedging Washington’s bets by stating that the U.S. would work with any government(s) that emerges from the October 1 referendum. Also, although Trump said that he didn’t think most in Catalonia would vote in favor of separating from Spain, he did not condemn the referendum as illegal.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel avoided taking sides, calling the question about Catalonia’s upcoming referendum an “internal Spanish matter,” and emphasizing that Berlin’s key interest in Spain’s future was about the country’s “stability,” rather than its cohesion or territorial integrity.

If Catalonia were to become an independent state, it would be one of Europe’s wealthiest countries (with an economy carrying about the same output level as Portugal’s) and presumably it would have positive and cooperative relations with all Western countries currently allied with Spain. Although the rest of Spain would lose economically if Catalonia separated and the country would possess less influence regionally and internationally without Barcelona, it is unclear what other EU members, chiefly France and Germany, have at stake economically regarding Catalonian independence. Given Barcelona’s important economic role as a major Mediterranean port city and a hub of tourism, it is doubtful that any European country or the U.S. would hesitate from embracing an independent state in Catalonia. That said, since Spain is not the only EU member with issues stemming from separatism, other governments in Europe must be gravely concerned about the precedent established by one of Spain’s regions unilaterally declaring independence.

In any event, the declaration of an independent Republic of Catalan would force Rajoy’s government into a major battle for its own legitimacy given its inability to avert a territorial crisis. On October 1, what is at stake in nothing short of Spain’s cohesion as a nation that, according to the Spanish constitution, is indivisible. After October 1, the people of Spain and the rest of Europe can hope that the Madrid-Catalonia standoff is settled peacefully. How much coercion Rajoy’s government applies to push for its desired outcome in Catalonia will likely be a major indicator of how events in Spain unfold.

Photo: Catalan referendum poster (Giorgio Cafiero). An earlier version of this article inadvertently placed Catalonia in northwestern Spain.</s>The Kremlin has said no matter what the outcome of Sunday’s vote, which could split Spain in two, Russia will still treat the European country as one entity. Under the Spanish constitution the referendum has been deemed invalid, yet the Catalan government is pressing ahead with the referendum, despite its leader being threatened with imprisonment. Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, today spoke out against the referendum. She said: "We believe that the situation in Catalonia is an internal Spanish affair.

"We are certain the events in Catalonia should proceed strictly in compliance with the existing Spanish legislation. "We interpret the Catalonian authorities’ so-called independence referendum scheduled for October 1, just as other unilateral initiatives by local legislators, in the context of the decisions on the issue by the Constitutional Court of Spain. "In our relations with Spain we proceed from the unconditional principle of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of that country.”

The condemnation from Vladimir Putin’s government is one of the strongest from outside Spain. Britain has said Catalan independence is a matter for the Spanish government and its people but refused to expand on how it would treat Spain if Catalonia voted for independence. A Foreign Office spokeswoman, told Express.co.uk: “The UK strongly supports the rule of law and remains clear that questions related to the issue of Catalan independence are a matter for the Government and people of Spain, and should be resolved within the proper constitutional and legal channels.”

The Catalan government has promised a declaration of independence within 48 hours if the majority of people vote yes on Sunday. A declaration would mean Spain suffers its most serious constitutional crisis in more than 30 years after democracy was restored following decades of dictatorship. Spanish authorities have threatened referendum organisers with arrest and have ordered police to patrol polling stations in a bid to stop the vote.</s>The Spanish administration on Tuesday started cracking down on preparations to hold an independence referendum for the autonomous community of Catalonia, reported AFP.

Spanish security forces were deployed to neutralise polling stations across the region seeking independence from the country. The chief prosecutor in Catalonia ordered the police to seal buildings designated as polling stations for the October 1 referendum. Spain’s interior minister also put Catalonia’s regional police force under his ministry’s supervision.

The move follows United States President Donald Trump’s joint statement with the nation’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in Washington urging Catalans to stay with Spain. “You are talking about staying with a truly great, beautiful and very historic country,” Trump had said. The Spanish prime minister asked Catalan officials to return to “common sense” while Trump dubbed any attempts to separate from Spain as a foolish step.

Tensions between Madrid and Catalonia have been high since the Spanish government blocked Barcelona’s planned referendum to split from it. On September 6, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont had signed a decree that called for a “self-determination referendum of Catalonia”. But the next day, Spain’s Constitutional Court suspended the referendum after a legal challenge by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Spain said it was contrary to the Constitution.</s>In a month where hurricanes, earthquakes and tropical storms have struck the American continent from north to south and east to west, it is hard to highlight from within the United States the importance of the right to self-determination demanded by Catalonia, a prosperous region of southern Europe.

In comparison with the catastrophes, deaths and tragedies caused by the recent natural disasters, the discussion around the right for a referendum can feel like a superfluous luxury.

Nevertheless, the current Catalan political conflict transcends Spain and Catalonia and exemplifies the growing challenge faced by any diverse democracy made up of differing ideologies, nationalities and ethnicities: How can the needs of the minority be accommodated when the weight of the majority has become dogma?

It is difficult to establish exactly when the conflict was born. The most purist Catalans go back to the fifteenth century (1469) with the union of Castilla to Catalonia and Aragon through the marriage of the Catholic Kings, Ferdinand II and Isabel I. Others point to the Catalan defeat on September 11 1714 under the government of Philip V of Spain during the Spanish Succession War as the beginning of a long history of persecution of the Catalan language and institutions; a systematic persecution that would become commonplace over the next three centuries.

But most agree that the last turning point in the tortuous relationship between Spain and Catalonia happened much more recently, in 2010, with the ruling of the Spanish constitutional court on the reform of the Catalan Statute - the institutional norm that governs the region and regulates its autonomy vis-à-vis the central government - which declared the reform unconstitutional; a reform that according to the Catalan leaders had followed the protocol designed and agreed with the central government, and that included the approval by the Catalan parliament and by a referendum where 74% of the participants (49% of the population) voted in its favor.



The court declared 14 articles of the Statute that granted Catalonia greater autonomy in the financial, judicial and political fields unconstitutional. It also stated that the Catalan language could not be described as the "own and preferred language" in Catalonia, and ruled that references to "Catalonia as a nation" and "the national reality of Catalonia" lacked "interpretive legal effectiveness."

Catalans were quick to react. On July 10, 2010 the demonstration "We are a nation. We decide" was organized with the support of most of the political parties represented in the Parliament of Catalonia, and brought together between 1.1 and 1.5 million people.

Since then, the separatist movement has gained momentum amongst Catalan voters, while regional political parties have organized around an agenda increasingly focused on making independence a reality.

The declaration of unconstitutionality and the demonstration of July 10 have personified the two-sided monologue between the Spanish central government and Catalonia ever since: the invocation of the Law - with a Capital L - by the Spanish government on the one hand, and the appeal to the universal right (according to the Hague tribunal) to self-management and self-determination by an increasingly united and organized region around the cause for independence.

The more moderate opponents to the referendum call it illegal, and recall that the right to self-determination was crafted in the context of a colonial history. They claim that, if the goal is to change the Constitution, the Constitution itself establishes an exact process on how to do so, and that trying to skip steps is not only illegal but delusional. For the most extremist referendum opponents, the Constitution clearly stipulates that "Spain is indivisible" and that "every piece of Spain belongs to each and every one of the Spaniards"; so a referendum that does not consult all of the Spaniards and is not conducted by the central government has no validity whatsoever.



Those in favor of the referendum argue that they have exhausted all attempts to frame the region's values within the Spanish legal system, and that they now have no other choice but to define and follow their own Catalan parliament laws. The most extremist see any central government initiative as an attempt to boycott the Catalan "nation-state", claiming that the referendum is only the tip of an iceberg that has been forming over centuries.

The disconnect is clear, and it is rooted in the disagreement about the system of values to be shared. The Spanish government prioritizes the law as an end in itself, so it makes sense that it sees its violation as an unacceptable offense: the use of regional funds to finance an illegal initiative is, after all, a crime. Crime that does not justify, however, the rebukes that have followed: imprisonment of high-ranking Catalan government officials, and searches in homes and printing presses, are all disproportionate measures against the potential non-compliance crimes.

For the younger generations, these reactions are dangerous similar to anti-terrorist measures in the framework of a pacifist movement. For the older generations, they are also reminiscent of the Francoist repression against the Catalan language and culture that they suffered first hand.

Pushback has been felt beyond Catalonia. Cities around Spain, including Madrid, have joined the Catalan demonstrations for the region’s right to decide; an unprecedented fact in the history of Catalanism that only adds complexity and sadness to a possible rupture between the two regions.



Meanwhile, the Catalan population demands the right to choose the legality that best responds and protects their value system, given that it has become clear that the current Law (the Spanish Constitution) can not accommodate the needs of a region with a history, language and shared political institutions that go back more than 500 years. But it's not all nationalistic romanticism. An important part of the independentist agenda focuses on ending the tax discrimination that, according to the separatists, Catalonia suffers with respect to the rest of the state.

Data from 2012 for example shows that Catalonia collected 118.6% of the national average in taxes per capita, while it only received 99.5%. At the opposite extreme, Extremadura collected 76.6% of the national average in taxes, but received 111.8%. Despite being true, the economic argument, is, at the very least, controversial. According to several economists, for instance, the imbalance is commensurate with the fact that Catalonia is, after all, a richer region.

The economic argument has brought independentists together in the past few years, but according to many Catalans it is just a symptom of a much larger problem. The conflict is "political so it requires a political solution, not a legal solution," argues Laia Balcells, an associate professor at Georgetown University's Department of Government in Washington DC. "History reminds us again and again that legality changes over time - and that is the way it should be; for example, interracial marriages in the United States were illegal until 1967, and today no one would question their legality. Unfortunately, legality in Spain is very immune to change."



The Spanish Constitution was written in 1978 after almost 40 years of Franco dictatorship, with very young political institutions "in a hurry and under military tutelage" explains the political scientist. That was 40 years ago and it is normal that certain regions and sectors of the Spanish society are requesting a review. In a plurinational state, Balcells reminds us, the Catalan minority needs the help of the majority to achieve change.

And so we return to the question of how and to what extent can minorities be protected against majorities in a diverse democratic system. An issue that, without going further, is raised daily in our country with the administration of Trump and its position against racial, cultural, sexual or gender minorities.

The solution is certainly complex, but as any history student knows well, repression, if it works, it is only a short-term weapon. In whatsapp circles of Catalan activists the phrase "They wanted to bury us, but they did not know we were seeds" circulated today.

Meanwhile, the central government advances with some caution but firmly with a position that, according to its own dialectic, is unshakable: illegality is unacceptable. Many, inside and outside Catalonia, would like the central government to apply the same rectitude to its own cases of corruption. But that's another story.</s>From courtroom battles to noisy street demonstrations, a confrontation between the central government in Madrid and independence movements in the wealthy northeastern Catalonia region has been gripping Spain for weeks.

The conflict is due to come to a head Sunday when Catalonia intends to hold a regional ballot on whether to break away from the rest of Spain, despite government efforts to prevent the vote.

Here is a look at how the standoff has evolved:

After Catalan separatists in the region's parliament passed a law on Sept. 6 to hold a referendum on independence, Spain's national government said it was illegal and complained to the Constitutional Court. That court ordered the ballot put on ice while its judges deliberate on its legality. They have not ruled yet.

Previous efforts in Catalonia to vote on independence have fallen foul of the Spanish Constitution, which refers in Article 2 to "the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards."

As independence supporters defied the Constitutional Court's decision and continued to prepare the ballot, the state prosecutor in Catalonia filed two lawsuits: one against members of the Catalan parliament for disobedience and abuse of power, and another against members of the Catalan regional government, including regional president Carles Puigdemont, for disobedience, abuse of power and embezzlement. The latter charge carries jail time.

Also, the Constitution's Article 155 allows the government to suspend, totally or partially, Catalonia's self-government if the region disobeys a court order.

Spanish police have so far arrested a dozen officials in Catalonia on suspicion of aiding and abetting the vote, triggering large street protests.

Spain's central authorities have taken over control of virtually all Catalonia's regional public spending. The aim: to ensure that no tax revenue is diverted to pay for the referendum.

The Spanish government has snatched away from the Catalan government the administration of its spending on health, education, social services and the payment of civil servants. Also, every invoice paid by Catalan authorities, including for non-essential services, must go to Madrid for rubber-stamping before it is paid.

A new system demands weekly public spending reports from Catalan authorities, whereas Spain's other autonomous regions report monthly.

Tightening the screw, Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro imposed credit restrictions on Catalonia, blocking its government's access to vital debt funding on international markets.

If mayors and their municipalities are unable to help organize the ballot, the independence vote is unlikely to happen.

More than 700 of Catalonia's about 900 mayors were placed under investigation after saying they would not be intimidated by the state prosecutor's ban on helping prepare the referendum.

Some of them have appeared before a magistrate and refused to answer questions before being released. They potentially face a ban on holding public office.

The key figure is Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau, who wants a referendum but one that is legal and consented to by the state. Colau is a rising political star in Spain and cannot afford being barred from office. But a crucial one-fifth of the region's voters are registered in her city.

Concerned about shielding Barcelona's civil servants from possible prosecution, Colau initially refused to make municipal premises available as polling places. However, she later announced an agreement with the regional government to allow Barcelonans to cast their ballot. She accused Madrid-based central authorities of unprecedented bullying, saying "this is not about independence, it's about our rights."

Amid so much legal and economic pressure from Madrid, it's unclear how Catalan authorities will be able to hold the referendum. Whichever way the pro-independence movement has turned, the central government has pounced to block it.

Police confiscated about 10 million ballot papers as well as around 1.3 million posters advertising the referendum. A court order shut down the referendum's official website, though minutes later the content was replicated through servers overseas.

Ballot boxes and electoral officers will also be needed. The pro-independence movement isn't saying where they will be coming from.

Meanwhile, authorities hired three ferry vessels to accommodate nearly 5,000 additional police deployed to Catalonia for the vote. The Spanish and Catalan governments are still wrestling over who gives orders to the 17,000-strong regional police force.
The President of Catalonia vows to continue on with the vote despite objections from Spain.