WELLINGTON: New Zealand's cliffhanger election ended in a stalemate Saturday (Sep 23), leaving maverick populist Winston Peters of the New Zealand First (NZF) party to decide whether conservative Prime Minister Bill English or his youthful challenger Jacinda Ardern forms government.

English delivered an unexpectedly strong performance to claim 46 per cent of the vote, while the much-hyped "Jacinda-mania" surrounding Ardern fell short as she finished on 36.

"Of course we were hoping for higher... obviously we hoped for better," said Ardern, the 37-year-old who looked set for an upset win after taking over the centre-left Labour Party last month.

It could be another two weeks before the outcome is known, with Peters saying he was in no hurry to decide who to support.

The major parties must forge coalitions to reach a majority under New Zealand's proportional voting system, but all of the existing groupings fell short. On the final count, English's National Party and current ally ACT had 59 seats, two shy of the 61 needed to win.

Ardern's centre-left Labour Party and its preferred partner the Greens were on 54, still needing another seven. That means neither can govern without Peters' NZF, which claimed nine seats.

Peters, 72, a political veteran who has played the kingmaker in two previous elections, said he had an important decision to make and would not be rushed.

"As things stand we do have the balance of political responsibility and we're not going to be hasty with that," he said.

He added: "We'll make a decision in the interests of all New Zealand and New Zealand First, that is the whole country... that will take some time."

The campaign has been the most volatile in recent memory, with momentum swinging from English to Ardern and then back again.

English was in the driving seat to win a fourth term until Ardern took over the Labour Party last month. She galvanised support for the ailing centre-left party, giving it a 20-point popularity boost to draw level with National.

But the "Jacinda-mania" phenomenon waned as English attacked her financial credibility while pointing to his economic record over the past nine years.

She appeared deflated addressing the party faithful after the vote, saying she had given her all and apologising for not achieving enough.

Ardern said she still hoped to become prime minister as part of a Labour-Greens-NZF coalition, despite Peters' historic differences of opinion with the Greens.

"I simply cannot predict at this point what decisions other leaders will make," she said. "We've got a lot of work in front of us still, not too much revelry."

"I know our parties don't agree on everything, but now is the time to put those differences aside and to work together," he said.

In contrast, English was bullish about his chances of securing a fourth-term government for National, a feat that has not been achieved in New Zealand for more than 50 years. He pointed out that National outpolled Labour and the Greens combined, saying voters had shown a clear preference for the centre-right party.

"We go into negotiations with the intention of forming a stable government which enables this country to deliver for New Zealanders," he said

The result helps English make amends for his last leadership foray in 2002, when National slumped to a record defeat and won barely 20 percent of the vote.

Peters has shown in the past that he will back either side if the right offer is made.

In 1996, he helped install a National-led government in return for being made deputy prime minister, then in 2005 he joined a Labour coalition after being given the job of foreign minister.

"I'm a very reasonable person but I don't sell myself or my principles out," he said this week.</s>New Zealand politics seldom grabs international attention. That changed six weeks ago when Jacinda Ardern, the 37-year-old female deputy leader of the opposition Labour Party, was gifted the party leadership and a mission to lift its vote share. It was an act of desperation for Labour, a party that has languished in the polls since the defeat of Helen Clark’s government in 2008.

Within a week of taking over, Ardern rejuvenated Labour’s membership and its campaign coffers began to fill. People turned out in the hundreds for selfies, campaign speeches, and to meet this remarkable young woman. Opinion polls showed a surge in support for Labour and for Ardern as preferred prime minister. Some of this support had come at the expense of the country’s left-wing Green Party, but not all.

Labour under Ardern appeared to ignite a belief, amongst Labour voters at least, that a change of government was not only desirable but achievable.

Why this support for change in a country that came through the Global Financial Crisis relatively unscathed, and is experiencing solid economic growth? The reasons are complex but to simplify there seemed to be a sense that the National government’s fiscal prudence and retaining a surplus at any cost, was proving too high a price for many.

Materially, a growing number of New Zealanders were experiencing economic hardship. Wages have stagnated, homelessness numbers are high, and sky-rocketing house prices in Auckland, with contagion effects in the regions, were locking out many first-time home buyers.

Income tax cuts offset an increase in the goods and services tax for middle- and high-income earners but did little to relieve the economic pressures on low-income earners experiencing high food prices and increased rents. For those not in paid work, the stricter rules around welfare access exacerbated a sense of economic insecurity.

Socially, there were also signs that all was not well with New Zealand. Comparatively speaking, New Zealand’s rates of family and domestic violence and child poverty are shocking, and pressures on the public health care system have led to some hospitals closing their doors to new patients. Spending on new infrastructure outside earthquake-stricken city of Christchurch has been deemed inadequate, particularly given the considerable annual growth in net migration (72,000 at last count).

Alongside this, there was a belief that the government was failing in its commitments to combat climate change and to clean up polluted waterways. This failure was attributed in part to large farming interests who remain central to New Zealand’s primary-industry dependent economy and who have strong connections with the current government.

In combination, these factors have provoked a sense that National has served some New Zealanders very well, but many others were increasingly alienated.

In the lead-up to the 2014 election, inequality was a recurring theme in public discourse. But National’s record on economic management, and the leadership and likability of then Prime Minister John Key (who demolished the Labour leader in the popularity stakes), secured National their third term.

The Prime Ministership then passed from Key to former Finance Minister Bill English, with little damage to the party’s high levels of support. Labour by contrast was underwhelming under former leader Andrew Little.

Enter Jacinda Ardern, whose rhetoric of “relentless positivity” and authentic commitment to addressing poverty, gender inequality and environmental degradation gave voters a message of hope. She talked of tempering net migration in language that was not “anti-immigration,” focusing instead on investing in sufficient infrastructure initiatives to enable a better quality of life for new and existing residents. In doing so, she tapped into a desire for progressive change. It was part-Jeremy Corbyn of the U.K., part-Justin Trudeau of Canada; it was not a “mania” but a grassroots momentum.

Not enough for Ardern

Ultimately it was not enough. Some business leaders were unsure, others were wholly unconvinced. Ardern’s plans to establish a working group to investigate tax reform, including a capital gains tax, introduce a water tax, revisit the Trans-Pacific-Partnership, and invest in free higher education, were resisted.

A week out from the election, National regained its lead in the polls. Almost immediately the New Zealand dollar surged, and National’s traditional voters turned out in droves. Although the results remain provisional, with more than 380,000 special votes (15% of the total) still to be counted, it is apparent that with 45% of the vote, National is in a strong position to form a government with support from the center-populist party, New Zealand First.

This is not a hung parliament. This is a normal outcome produced by proportional representation. No party has won majority government in New Zealand since the adoption of the German-style system of MMP in 1996 and post-election negotiations are commonplace. What is different this time is that the vote for Labour and the Greens is close to 42%, meaning a change of government would require a three-party coalition unlike any New Zealand has seen before.

It is not yet known who New Zealand First will support. What is known is that Jacinda Ardern revitalized the center-left’s policy platform and made Labour competitive again. And National now knows that there is an appetite for more than business as usual.

Dr. Curtin is also the co-author of the book A Bark but no Bite. Inequality and the 2014 New Zealand General Election. The opinions expressed here are the author's own.</s>New Zealand voted Saturday in a cliffhanger election pitting conservative Prime Minister Bill English against charismatic young rival Jacinda Ardern.

The campaign has been the most volatile in recent memory, with momentum swinging from English to Ardern and then back again.

"This election is going to be really close... it's a drag race between the two big parties," English said on the hustings Friday, conceding a large undecided vote could prove key.

Under New Zealand's strict election laws, exit polls are not allowed during election-day voting which opened at 9am (2100 GMT Friday) and closed at 7pm (0700 GMT).

However, a firm indication of the outcome is expected within three-and-a-half hours of the close.

There were 3.2 million registered voters of which 1.24 million cast an early vote.

No party has claimed a majority government in New Zealand's 120-seat parliament since proportional voting was adopted in 1996 and this election is unlikely to change that.

Pre-election opinion polls showed either English's conservative National Party or Ardern's centre-left Labour could be in a position to form a government late Saturday.

Another possibility was that there will be no immediate winner with both major parties seeking coalition partners to get them over the line.

If that happens, populist anti-immigration campaigner Winston Peters' New Zealand First party looms as a potential kingmaker.

Ardern was hoping for a high youth vote to counter her dip in the polls in the final week of campaigning and visited universities across the country encouraging students to cast their ballots.

"This is going to come down to whether or not people turn out and vote," she said Friday.

English's National Party was in the driving seat to win a fourth term until Ardern took over the Labour Party last month.

The 37-year-old galvanised support for the ailing centre-left party, giving it a 20-point popularity boost to bring it level with National.

Arden accused the government of inertia, saying that after three terms it has run out of ideas on issues such as housing affordability and protecting the environment.

Her policy platform includes free tertiary education and slashing immigration to reduce pressure on housing and infrastructure.

Ardern is bidding to become New Zealand's youngest leader since 1856 and only the third woman to lead the South Pacific nation of 4.6 million people.

But the "Jacinda-mania" phenomenon waned as English attacked her financial credibility while pointing to his economic record over the past nine years.

The 55-year-old ex-farmer and father-of-six, who took over as prime minister when John Key stepped down last December, argued only National can maintain strong economic growth.

English also wants to make amends for his last leadership foray in 2002, when National slumped to a record defeat and won barely 20 percent of the vote.

While tipping a close race, he is confident National can win a fourth term, a feat no New Zealand government has achieved in more than 50 years.

The wildcard for both English and Ardern is Peters, whose party could decide the outcome of the election if it is as tight as polls predict.

The 72-year-old political veteran has shown in the past that he will back either side if the right offer is made.

In 1996, he helped install a National-led government in return for being made deputy prime minister, then in 2005 he joined a Labour coalition after being given the job of foreign minister.</s>AUCKLAND, New Zealand (AP) — Polls have closed in New Zealand’s national elections and the first results are trickling in for what is shaping up to be a close race between conservative Prime Minister Bill English and liberal challenger Jacinda Ardern.

Early results on Saturday showed English’s National Party a little ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party.

However, under New Zealand’s proportional voting system, large parties typically must form alliances with smaller parties in order to govern. That means there’s a chance there will be no clear winner on election night, and that parties may bargain with each other over the coming days or weeks to form a coalition.

Ardern, 37, has enjoyed a remarkable surge in popularity since taking over as opposition leader last month. English, 55, has highlighted his experience and promised tax cuts.</s>Voting has closed in New Zealand's general election Saturday where pre-election polls indicated it was too close to call between the centre-right National Party of Prime Minister Bill English and the centre-left Labour Party of Jacinda Ardern.

Under strict election day laws New Zealand does not allow exit polls during voting, which opened at 9am (2100 GMT Friday) and closed at 7pm (0700 GMT).

However, a firm indication of the outcome is expected within about three-and-a-half hours after the end of voting.

There were 3.2 million registered voters, of which 1.24 million cast an early vote.

The campaign has been the country's most volatile in recent memory, with momentum swinging from English to Ardern and then back again.

If neither English, whose National Party is seeking a record-equalling fourth consecutive term in power, nor Ardern can form a government outright, or with the help of minor support parties, the New Zealand First Party of populist anti-immigration campaigner Winston Peters looms as the potential kingmaker.

No party has claimed a majority government in New Zealand's 120-seat parliament since proportional voting was adopted in 1996.</s>Polls have closed in New Zealand's national elections amid what looks like a close race between the conservative prime minister and his liberal challenger.

Early results suggest incumbent Bill English's National Party is a little ahead of Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party.

Under New Zealand's proportional voting system, large parties typically have to form alliances with smaller parties in order to govern.

That means there is a chance there will be no clear winner on election night, and parties may bargain over the coming days or weeks to form a coalition.

Ms Ardern, 37, has enjoyed a remarkable surge in popularity since taking over as opposition leader last month.

Mr English, 55, has highlighted his experience and promised tax cuts.

With a little over one-third of the vote counted, the National Party was winning 46% of the vote and the Labour Party 36%. The New Zealand First Party had 7% and the Green Party 6%.

Ms Ardern has enjoyed a remarkable surge in popularity since taking over and was greeted like a rock star at large rallies during the campaign.

Mr English ran a more low-key campaign, highlighting his experience and the economic growth the country has enjoyed over recent years.

Opinion polls indicate there was a swing back to him in the waning days of the campaign after Ms Ardern had the early momentum.

Voting ended at 7pm local time today. Figures released by election authorities showed that a record 1.2 million people chose to cast their votes before election day.

That equates to about half of all the votes that were likely to be cast in the nation of just under five million people.

Election authorities made it easier for people to cast early votes, which they were able to do at certain polling stations up to two weeks before the election.

It also means that New Zealanders might find out the results more quickly, because early votes were counted before the polls closed.

On his campaign bus this week, Mr English said Ms Ardern had taken the nation by surprise.

"It tests your faith in your product and your faith in your approach," he said.

Mr English said the polls had been volatile and small changes could have a big effect on the outcome.

"People have been changing their views very quickly, and I think the polls have reflected that," he said. "You've really taken what normally takes two to three years in a political cycle and telescoped it into six weeks."

Ms Ardern laughed when asked if she ever expected to do as well as she has so far.

"You know what, I really didn't have any time to set any expectations," she said. "It was just hit the ground running, and run a campaign that was good enough to win."

At stake for both candidates is how to capitalise on New Zealand's growing economy.

Mr English said people should stay the course after his government set the country on a path toward increasing prosperity.

Ms Ardern said she wants to build thousands of affordable homes to combat runaway house prices, spend more money on health care and education, and clean up polluted waterways.

Mr English said he thinks the televised debates between the two candidates helped swing the momentum his way, as people focused more on the issues and how policy changes would affect them.

But his opponent accused him of scaremongering over her plans for taxes and the economy.

"Certainly it's been somewhat frustrating dealing with their negative campaign," Ms Ardern said. "But, from what I've seen, this is an election that's going to come down to turnout."

Ardern is hoping that if younger voters turn out in big numbers, it could help swing the election her way.</s>New Zealand leaders line up to woo kingmaker Peters

New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English speaks to supporters during an election night event in Auckland September 23, 2017. — Reuters pic WELLINGTON, Sept 24 — Both of New Zealand's major political parties moved to open coalition negotiations with maverick MP Winston Peters today after the country's general election stalemate left him in the position of kingmaker.

However, conservative Prime Minister Bill English appeared to be in the driving seat to form a government due to tensions among the opposition parties that would need to unite to unseat him.

English's National Party performed strongly in yesterday's election to claim 46.0 percent of the vote or 58 seats, three short of the 61 needed to win.

The main opposition Labour Party, led by charismatic newcomer Jacinda Ardern, polled a disappointing 35.8 per cent to take 45 seats, although that rises to 52 if the seven seats of close ally the Greens are included.

It means that both English and Ardern would need the nine seats held by Peters' New Zealand First party to get over the line and reach the majority required to form a government.

He was holed up in his North Island electorate today awaiting calls from English and Ardern pitching their case for his support.

"They'll try to make a decision but they won't have the cards that matter," Peters said.

"We know what we have to do responsibly. We're going to talk as a political party, as a caucus and as a board and when we've made our decision we'll then start talking to other people about what we might do."

Asked why Peters should back English, National campaign director Steven Joyce said his party's 46 per cent of the vote clearly showed it had more support than Labour.

"We'll be able to work well with New Zealand First. There's a number of our people have good relationships with not just Winston but his team," he told TVNZ.

"So let's just see how that plays out. The prime minister will start on that today."

'It's up to Winston Peters'

Labour campaign director Phil Twyford said Peters, known for his anti-immigration and protectionist policies, had more in common with the centre-left party than National.

"It's about who can put together a majority and I believe that we're well and truly in the game," he told the state broadcaster.

"There's much more policy alignment between New Zealand First and Labour. They're committed to a much more hands-on approach to economic management."

During the campaign, Labour dismissed a NZF policy to hold a referendum on the future of the seven seats reserved specifically for the indigenous Maori population.

However, Twyford said today he could not dismiss the possibility of it being part of negotiations.

"I can't say that now and I won't because the coalition discussions are going to start today. I think all those issues are going to be on the table," he told TV3's The Nation.

"Our position is very clear on that, people know where we stand on the Maori seats. We support them."

An added difficulty for Ardern's Labour is that it must bring together two bitter foes in Peters and the Greens if it is to gain office.

The Greens angered Peters by labelling his anti-immigration rhetoric racist earlier this year and he warned there would be "consequences."

Greens leader James Shaw appeared downbeat about the prospect of the notoriously cranky septuagenarian forgetting past differences to join Labour and the Greens.

"Look, it's not likely, right, but if you look at the fact that the three opposition parties together have 61 seats... it is possible. We could form a government," he said.

"As everyone says, it's ultimately up to Winston Peters." — AFP</s>The nationalist New Zealand First Party has emerged the potential kingmaker in the general elections held on Saturday, as Prime Minister Bill English’s National Party won most votes but fell short of a majority.

The National Party clocked 46% of all votes, while rival Labour Party managed 35.8%, the final tally from New Zealand’s Electoral Commission showed. New Zealand First Party, led by controversial anti-immigration figure Winston Peters, had a 7.5% vote share.

New Zealand has a proportional voting system in its general elections. Their vote shares mean that the National Party bagged 58 seats and the Labour Party, 45. They will now attempt to strike alliances to reach the 61-seat mark for a majority in the 120-seat Parliament.

English said negotiations with Peters to form government will begin in the next few days. “...We go into negotiations with the intention of forming a stable government that enables this country to deliver for New Zealanders,” the prime minister told supporters, according to the New Zealand Herald.

The Labour Party’s Jacinda Ardern said, “Sometimes MMP [mixed member proportional voting system] leaves us with an outcome that requires a little bit of extra work.”</s>A New Zealand Dollar note is seen in this illustration on June 2 (Reuters file photo)

WELLINGTON — The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is set for more volatility in coming weeks after a general election left New Zealand's major parties with no majority to govern, forcing them to enter negotiations with the nationalist New Zealand First Party.

The ruling National Party secured the largest number of votes in Saturday's election, but two of its possible allies lost seats in parliament, making it rely on New Zealand First and its outspoken leader, Winston Peters, to form a coalition.

Labour could also still be in a position to rule, if together with the Green Party, it gets New Zealand First on board. Negotiations are likely to carry on for weeks, with a final tally, including a large number of overseas votes, not due until October 7.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see the Kiwi a little more volatile on this result," Stuart Ive, dealer at OM Financial said on Sunday, referring to New Zealand dollar.

"Clearly when we open on Monday morning, we're at the moment no better off — it's either going to be Labour or National leading the country."

Last month, the New Zealand dollar fell more than 4 per cent against the US dollar to be the worst performer amongst major currencies, and underperformed its Australian counterpart as political jitters and worsening data weighed.

The Kiwi, which was the 11th most traded currency in the world in 2016, has tended to fall when the Labour Party led in the polls due to their "unknown" factor and risen when it showed a lead for National, which has been in power for nearly a decade.

New Zealand has out-performed most of its developed market peers since the global financial crisis, with growth averaging 2.6 per cent a year over the past 2.5 years and the government balancing its books.

Critics say much of the growth has come from immigration which has helped fuel a sharp jump in house prices that has in turn widened the gap between rich and poor.

Labour is planning to reduce immigration by up to 30,000 from a record 70,000 a year currently. It also plans to renegotiate certain trade deals to accommodate for a planned ban on foreign ownership of existing homes.

Some economists say those policies would stifle two key sources of New Zealand's robust growth of recent years, although the impact on growth could be somewhat offset by its plan to build 100,000 affordable homes over 10 years.

Both National and Labour were expected to maintain a policy of fiscal prudence if they form the next government, with Labour aiming to cut net debt at a slightly slower pace.

But they are likely to differ on monetary policy, with Labour pushing to add employment to the central bank's inflation-targeting mandate which could mean more stimulatory monetary policy, weighing on the Kiwi at first instance.



Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank, said markets were likely to put the odds in favour of another National-led coalition given its wide lead over Labour.

"Based off the way the NZD lifted in response to opinion polls that showed swings back to National, the NZD is likely to have a floor under it while the prospects of a National-led government remain," he said.

New Zealand's small stock market has performed strongly, with its benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index up 13.6 per cent year to date. Volatility has increased around the election too, but it remains within striking distance of its August all-time high.

New Zealand First, which has worked under governments led by both parties, said it would not be rushed to decide with which party it would work.

"At this stage, we have very little clue as to which way they will go," said Stephen Toplis, head of research at Bank of New Zealand. "With that in mind, I am not sure the market will have anything to come on. If there is anything, I guess it's uncertainty."</s>The leaders of New Zealand’s main parties prepared Sunday to start talks with Winston Peters, the leader of a nationalist party who emerged as kingmaker after an inconclusive general election, but Peters indicated he was in no rush to pick a side.

Prime Minister Bill English’s National Party won the largest number of votes in Saturday’s general election, securing a comfortable margin over the Labour opposition after what had shaped up as one of the closest votes in recent history.

But it was Peters and his New Zealand First Party who emerged in a position of power, with both National and Labour needing his support to form a government under New Zealand’s proportional representation system.

The National Party, which has been in power for a decade, secured 46 percent of the vote, while Labour had 35.8 percent and New Zealand First 7.5 percent. A final tally, including overseas votes, will be released Oct. 7.

The results so far secured 58 seats for National in the 120-seat parliament and 45 for Labour. New Zealand First has nine seats and the Green Party has seven.

Labour and the Greens have a working agreement, with Labour leader Jacinda Ardern potentially in a position to form a coalition government with 61 seats if she wins Peters’ support — the bare minimum needed.

Peters, who has served in previous Labour and National governments, told reporters Sunday he had not yet received any calls from National or Labour, and had not contacted them.

The colorful populist, a rugby-loving former foreign minister, has in the past backed the party that won the most votes but said he was discussing options with members of his own party first.

“I’m doing it one-by-one by phone,” said Peters, a lawyer of indigenous Maori and Scottish descent.

Asked how long it might be before he made a decision, Peters said: “How long before I pick you up and throw you into the water over there?”

Ardern, a charismatic 37-year-old, revived her party’s flagging fortunes after taking over as leader in August but fell far short of what early opinion polls suggested could have been a stunning turnaround.

She said it would be hard to complete coalition talks until all votes were tallied. Speaking outside her home in Auckland on Sunday, she said her centre-left party would not concede until “we are sure that a stable government has been formed.”

English said he would proceed with negotiations with New Zealand First.

“The shortest path to stable government is a two-party coalition between National and New Zealand First,” English told a news conference.
Prime Minister Bill English of the National Party wins a plurality of votes, but not enough for a majority, as the Labour Party led by Jacinda Ardern makes significant gains. Winston Peters becomes a kingmaker with his third-placed New Zealand First party, able to form a coalition government with either major party.