A woman passes in front pre-election poster of Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and vice-president Plamen Manushev, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. ... more

A woman passes in front pre-election poster of Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and vice-president Plamen Manushev, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey less

A woman passes by pre-election posters of Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace ... more

A woman passes by pre-election posters of Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey less

This photo taken on Thursday, Nov 3, 2016 shows Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva, right, and vice-president Plamen Manushev, left clap hands during their ... more

This photo taken on Thursday, Nov 3, 2016 shows Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva, right, and vice-president Plamen Manushev, left clap hands during their pre-election campaign in Pernik, Bulgaria . Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey. less

A woman passes near pre-election posters of Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev and vice-president Iliana Yotova, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their ... more

A woman passes near pre-election posters of Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev and vice-president Iliana Yotova, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey. less

This photo taken on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev speaks during his pre-election campaign in Sofia. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday ... more

This photo taken on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 Bulgaria's Socialist party presidential candidate Rumen Radev speaks during his pre-election campaign in Sofia. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey less

A man passes in front pre-election poster of Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and vice-president Plamen Manushev, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. ... more

A man passes in front pre-election poster of Bulgaria's centre-right ruling GERB party presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and vice-president Plamen Manushev, right, in Sofia, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Bulgarians will to choose their new president on Sunday to replace incumbent Rosen Plevneliev after his five-year term ends next January. The election campaign focused mainly on the future of the European Union, relations with Russia and the threats from a possible rise in migrant inflows from neighboring Turkey less

SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — A former Bulgarian Air Force officer who has called on the European Union to lift its sanctions against Russia was the likely winner of the country's presidential election Sunday, but he did not secure enough votes to avoid a runoff, exit polls showed.

The exit polls gave opposition Socialist candidate Rumen Radev a narrow lead over the candidate of the ruling center-right party, Parliament Speaker Tsetska Tsacheva, who was seen as the race's front-runner ahead of Sunday's voting.

The Balkan nation's relations with Russia, the future of the European Union and increasing immigration since neighboring countries closed their borders to refugees and migrants fleeing Africa and the Middle East dominated the election campaign.

Bulgaria, which joined the European Union a decade ago, remains the poorest member of the bloc. The slow pace of reforms to eliminate graft and poverty has fueled disillusionment, while over 1 million young people in the nation of 7.2 million have emigrated in search of better futures abroad.

Radev, 53, and Tsacheva, 58, were two of 21 candidates seeking the largely ceremonial presidency in an election that for the first time made voting for the position compulsory for Bulgaria's 6.8 million voters.

If officials uphold the election results, the two will go head-to-head in a runoff election on Nov. 13.

Most political analysts said Radev's likely victory in the runoff poses a threat for Prime Minister Borisov and his ruling GERB party, possibly prompting early general elections next spring that could shake up Bulgaria's political scene.

Radev, a former fighter pilot, has pledged to comply with Bulgaria's European obligations, if he is elected. But he also has said that "being pro-European does not mean being anti-Russian" and insisted that sanctions on Moscow need to be lifted.

Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, but many in this Black Sea country still share deep historical and cultural ties with Moscow. Energy-strapped Bulgaria is also heavily reliant on Russian supplies.

If she becomes Bulgaria's first female president, Tsacheva is widely expected to continue the pro-Europe foreign policy of incumbent Rosen Plevneliev.

"I voted for a stable and secure Bulgaria with educated and prospering people living there," she said while casting her ballot.

Although the head of state has no executive powers, and all major policies must be approved by Parliament, the popular election imbues the post with a fair amount of political influence.

The president also leads the armed forces, can veto legislation and signs international treaties.

A poll conducted by the Alpha Research agency had Radev receiving 24.8 percent of the vote on Sunday, Tsacheva 23.5 percent.

Another poll by the Gallup International agency gave Radev 26.7 percent and Tsacheva 22.5 percent.

Although official results are not expected before Tuesday, they are not expected to change the need for or makeup of the runoff context.</s>Former air force commander Rumen Radev narrowly won the first round of presidential elections in Bulgaria on Sunday, exit polls showed, raising prospects of political instability in the small Black Sea state and a strategic shift towards Russia.

Mr Radev, a 53-year old ally of the opposition Socialist party, has called for an end of European Union sanctions against Russia and has said EU member Bulgaria should hedge its bets when it comes to international alliances.

Exit polls by Alpha Research and Gallup International showed Radev winning 24.8-26.7 per cent of the vote in which 20 other candidates also competed. First partial results will be released early on Monday.

A failure to secure an overall majority would mean that Radev will face a runoff vote next Sunday against runner-up Tsetska Tsacheva, 58, the centre-right GERB ruling party candidate.

Opinion polls conducted ahead of the election showed Mr Radev was likely to lose the first round but win the runoff. Sunday’s exit polls showed Mr Tsacheva winning 23.5-22.5 per cent of the vote.

GERB prime minister Boiko Borisov has said he would resign if Mr Tsacheva loses the first round. Even he doesn’t, observers say, opposition groupings could try to unseat his minority government after the presidential election.

“I am firmly convinced that the prime minister has no reason to resign,” said Liliana Pavlova, construction minister in Mr Borisov’s minority government after the exit polls were published.

Under the Bulgarian constitution, the president’s job is largely ceremonial but he or she can influence public opinion, veto legislation and lobby for policies.</s>Opinion polls show ruling party candidate Tsetska Tsacheva, 58, is likely to narrowly win the ballot but lose a subsequent runoff to Rumen Radev, 53, a Socialist Party ally who wants to end European Union sanctions against Moscow.

"The vote on Sunday will show whether we have the right to rule the country in the next two years," Prime Minister Boiko Borisov told supporters at the close of the campaign.

If Tsacheva does lose, Radev's Socialists and other opposition groupings could try to unseat the center-right GERB party's minority government and trigger early parliamentary elections, observers say.

That would lead to months of political uncertainty and a further slowdown in reforms, much needed after the collapse of Bulgaria's fourth largest bank and massive anti-corruption protests that helped GERB win parliamentary elections in 2014.

Public disappointment over reform progress eroded support for GERB, while Tsacheva is seen as lacking the charisma of Prime Minister Borisov.

"I will vote for General Radev because he hasn't been involved in dirty political games, so far," said 68-year-old pensioner Dimitar Tashev. "He is not a member of any political party and he deserves a chance."

Voting starts at 07.000 a.m. local time (0500 GMT) and polls close at 20.00 p.m.

Latest opinion polls showed parliament speaker Tsacheva winning with 27.2-26.3 percent of the vote, against Radev's 22.5-23.1 percent.

Nineteen other candidates are also running and most polls show Radev could win a runoff vote on Nov. 13, which has to be held between top two contenders if no one wins an overall majority.

Radev, a former air force commander, has campaigned largely on a promise of closer ties with Moscow, arguing the small European Union state - fully dependent on Russian energy - should hedge its bets when it comes to strategic alliances.

Bulgaria, seen as the Kremlin's most pliable satellite in Soviet times, has long been an anomaly in Europe, a country within EU and NATO structures yet feeling close to Russia.

"Bulgaria is a small country, we do not have resources and it is naive to go against Russia," said Kalin Dragiev, 49, shop owner. "Politicians must accept that Bulgaria badly needs Russia ...I will probably vote for Radev but I still think that Tsacheva is the favorite."

EU sanctions imposed on Moscow over its role in pro-Russian separatist conflict in Ukraine have hurt NATO member Bulgaria financially.

Most power in the country of 7.2 million rests with the prime minister and parliament, but the president leads the armed forces and can veto legislation, sign international treaties and appoint ambassadors.</s>SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — Bulgarians on Sunday were choosing a new president who will have to face both a possible rise in migrants from neighboring Turkey and growing tensions between Russia and the West.

For the first time, voting in the presidential election is compulsory for the Balkan nation’s 6.8 million voters. Also on the ballot is a referendum on electoral process issues.

Opinion polls suggest that none of Bulgaria’s 21 presidential candidates are likely to win in the first round by getting more than the required 50 percent of the vote, and that a presidential runoff will be held on Nov. 13.

The front-runner is the Parliament speaker, Tsetska Tsacheva, a 58-year-old lawyer and member of the governing center-right GERB party of Prime Minister Boiko Borisov. Unlike her party leader, however, she is not a charismatic figure.

To become the first female president of the country of 7.2 million people, Tsacheva must defeat the opposition Socialist contender Rumen Radev, 53, a former fighter pilot and Bulgarian air force chief.

If Tsacheva is elected, she is widely expected to continue the pro-Europe foreign policy of incumbent Rosen Plevneliev, while her main opponent is seen as more sympathetic to Russia.

Radev has repeatedly said he would comply with Bulgaria’s European obligations but has called for better relations with Russia and called for lifting sanctions against Russia, arguing that “being pro-European does not mean being anti-Russian.”

A recent poll by Gallup International Balkan suggests the presidential election will go to a second round, with Tsacheva facing Radev. The poll conducted Oct. 24-31 among 820 Bulgarians found Tsacheva supported by 27.2 percent and Radev by 23.1 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Polling stations will close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) and preliminary results will be available 90 minutes later. Final results will be announced Tuesday.</s>While the nation waits with bated breath for tomorrow's election results, news organizations will look to exit polls to get an early read on who might win.

But exit polls, which are always imperfect indicators, could be especially problematic in 2016 thanks to Donald Trump supporters.

Sources at several networks said they'll be extremely cautious in assessing exit polls this year, because the response from Trump supporters might be extremely unpredictable.

Republicans have always been less likely to talk to exit pollsters than Democrats. That's forced news organizations to weight the exit polls accordingly. If statistics suggest that, say, 10% of Republicans in a precinct didn't talk to pollsters, the media organizations will adjust for that.

But some Trump supporters distrust and loathe the media so much that they may be even more reluctant to talk to pollsters than most GOP voters, which could result in an abnormally low response rate among Republicans.

Related: No, Newsweek's Clinton cover is not proof the election is rigged

"Views about the media can affect response rates," said Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Fordham University who has written about the challenges surrounding exit polls. "It's something we have to grapple with."

Sources at various networks said their decision desks would be on the look out for lower response rates among Republicans.

Yet, on the other hand, other network sources speculate that the Republican response rate could be higher than usual because Trump's supporters have been so much more vocal than supporters of other GOP nominees such as Mitt Romney and John McCain.

"We're definitely prepared to adjust how we weigh the exit polls if Republicans are more responsive," said one broadcast network source.

Related: 'Lost' dog brings Trump, Clinton supporters together in new ad

There is yet another concern some networks have: that Trump supporters could try to mislead exit pollsters in order to dupe the media.

"Some people also deliberately mislead," Panagopoulos said. Evidence of voters misleading exit pollsters is harder to come by, he added, "but entirely conceivable in the current political climate."

Either way, the mission for decision desks is clear: Be careful.

The exit polls are collected by Edison Research and provided to what's known as the Network Election Pool, which is made up of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox News.

The exit poll results are released by news organizations at 5 pm ET and only reveals what motivated certain voters to make their choice. They do not include projection of any winners until all the polls close in any one state.

This year, however, Slate and a Silicon Valley startup called VoteCastr are planning to publish real-time vote projections in swing states before the polls close by using demographic and turnout data. BuzzFeed will also be using more than 200 volunteers nationwide to gather data directly from state and local election officials.

Some political experts are concerned that any move to forecast results before the polls close could influence potential voters who might feel less inclined to vote if they believe the die has already been cast. Political analyst Mark Plotkin called VoteCastr's effort "downright scary and disruptive."
Voters in Bulgaria go to the polls for a presidential election, with exit polls showing no candidate receiving the majority necessary to win outright, and Rumen Radev and Tsetska Tsacheva likely to face one another in a run-off on 13 November.