Angela Merkel has admitted her government shares responsibility for Sunday’s disastrous regional election result in Bavaria, blaming it partly on an erosion of confidence in politics on a national level.

“A lot of trust has been lost,�? the German chancellor said at a business conference on Monday, a day after her Bavarian allies in the Christian Social Union (CSU) were handed their worst result since 1954 in the prosperous southern state.

She said the result had shown that even a thriving economy and high employment were not enough to win over voters. As a consequence, her biggest takeaway from Sunday’s trouncing was that she “must better ensure that this trust is there and also make the results of our work visible,�? she said.

Germany’s ruling parties were trying and ride out the fallout from the vote on Monday, despite calls for members of Angela Merkel’s government to resign over the debacle.

The Social Democrats (SPD), the national coalition’s junior party, were also reeling after their vote halved, slumping into single figures for the first time in the state. The party came fifth on 9.5%, far behind the Greens and below the far-right AfD.

The humiliating result for Merkel’s two partners is a serious blow for her shaky coalition, yet by Monday morning no heads had rolled despite calls from within the CSU for the party’s leader, Horst Seehofer, to resign.

“I’m also not going to discuss my position today,�? said a defiant Seehofer, speaking after a meeting of the CSU leadership which unanimously backed the Bavarian premier, Markus Söder, to continue in his position.

Seehofer has been roundly blamed in the party for the result, which has been seen as punishment for sowing division within the coalition over migration policy.

“A leadership debate cannot be avoided,�? Peter Ramsauer, a former CSU deputy leader, told German media on Monday. He said the CSU had received a “disastrous result�? that “shouldn’t be relativised�?.

Volker Ullrich, a CSU MP, told Der Spiegel: “We need a different style, language that connects and good governance. The attempt to gain support on the right [has] failed.�?

Calls for resignations also came from within Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). “It probably can’t work without personnel consequences,�? the CDU premier of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther, told Die Welt. “However, I don’t think much of making individuals responsible. The entire CSU leadership has made mistakes in the past years … no one can be excluded.�?

Speaking after exit polls on Sunday night, Söder called it a “difficult day�? for the CSU but said his party had a clear mandate to form a government. He is now expected to hurriedly form a coalition to govern the state with the centre-right Free Voters, excluding the Greens despite their record-high showing.

All eyes will now turn to another regional vote, in Hesse at the end of the month, where both the CDU and SPD are languishing in the polls. The coalition partners will hope they can delay the final reckoning for the Bavarian disaster until then, giving them just under a fortnight to turn their fortunes around.</s>Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The CSU appears to have lost support to both right and left

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative sister party has suffered huge losses in Bavaria's state election, raising new doubts about her ruling coalition.

The centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lose its absolute majority in the state parliament, which it has dominated since 1957.

The Greens surged into second place, with nearly 17.5%.

The anti-immigration AfD is set to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time, with most votes counted.

The CSU got just over 37% - that is, more than 10% down on its 2013 result.

It was also a bitter night for Germany's decades-old centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who slumped to just 9.7%. They and the CSU are in a fragile coalition with Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU).

Bavaria result: Merkel's three challenges

The CSU appears to have suffered from the row over immigration policy earlier this year between Mrs Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader and German interior minister.

He said it was "not a nice day" but added it was only "one side of the coin" as the vote gives "a clear mandate" allowing the CSU to form a new government.

Image copyright AFP Image caption Many voters who disliked the tone of the migration debate may have turned to the Greens

There are signs that the CSU is leaning towards forming a Bavarian coalition with the right-leaning Free Voters (FW), a new independent party that won 11.6%. That would be a closer alignment than governing with the Greens.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) came fourth with about 10%. It means AfD will have seats in 15 of Germany's 16 state parliaments.

German commentators say the parties in Mrs Merkel's coalition will strive to avoid any further splits ahead of another big state election - in Hesse on 28 October, currently run by the CDU.

SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party's poor performance in Bavaria on squabbling within the coalition.

Rightward shift backfires

By Jenny Hill, BBC News, Bavaria

It was a terrible night for Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party.

The CSU has reigned supreme for decades in what is conservative country. But recent attempts to harden its tone and policies on migration, which included picking high-profile fights with Mrs Merkel, appear to have backfired.

It's bad news for Mrs Merkel too. Bavaria reflects what's happening at national level, the dwindling popularity of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.

Much may now depend on the results in Hesse in a fortnight. The CDU is also losing support. Its general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that what had happened in Bavaria was a warning.

Bavaria key facts

Nearly 13 million residents and the biggest by area of Germany's 16 federal states

Its capital Munich is Germany's third-largest city, after Berlin and Hamburg

Second-highest GDP out of 16 German states

Historically conservative region, with strong Catholic and local traditions

Industrial powerhouse: car and IT sectors especially strong, rich in family-run firms

What happened to the CSU?

AfD's success in Bavaria has not been as great as in eastern Germany but it appears to have taken large numbers of votes from the CSU.

But by echoing some of the AfD's hardline policies such as on migration, the CSU also seems to have lost the support of more moderate voters.

The CSU's Markus Söder, current Bavarian prime minister, said the projected result was painful but the party should learn from it.

"We have to analyse the changes taking place both in Bavaria and in society," he said.

"One of the most important jobs we now have is to ensure that this state is stable, governable, and remains as strong as it is now."

Some German commentators say the CSU now has an old-fashioned image for many voters.

The BBC's Jenny Hill in Bavaria says the election illustrates the complexity of the challenge faced by so many of Europe's large established parties.

It's not simply the rise of the far right, she says, but that voters are walking away in favour of smaller, newer movements.</s>German Chancellor Angela Merkel's arch-conservative CSU allies are bracing for heavy losses after the southern state of Bavaria went to the polls on Sunday.

The Christian Social Union (CSU), who have almost single-handedly ruled the wealthy Alpine state since the 1960s, are expected to lose their absolute majority, polls say.

'We've done all we could, we have fought hard,' said CSU state premier Markus Soeder, 51, as he cast his ballot amid high turnout from the 9.5 million eligible voters.

The other partner in Merkel's fragile 'grand coalition', the Social Democrats, were also set to do poorly in Bavaria.

But the far-right and anti-immigration AfD looked certain to enter the state assembly.

The biggest winners may be the left-leaning Greens who have doubled their poll ratings to 19 per cent since the last state elections.

If the polls are correct, they'd become the second strongest party and a possible coalition partner for the CSU.

The Bavarian election could mark another step in the demise of 'big-tent' mainstream parties and the fragmentation of the political landscape.

For Merkel, in her fourth and likely final term, it would heighten pressure two weeks before another dangerous vote, in the central state of Hesse, and ahead of a December Christian Democrats (CDU) congress where Merkel plans to run again as party chief.

'Merkel knows, no matter the election outcome, uncomfortable times lie ahead,' said the Sueddeutsche newspaper, predicting that a 'humiliated CSU will be looking for culprits ... and the name Angela Merkel will certainly fall'.

The CSU has run its campaign on economic stability and traditional conservative values in the mainly Catholic state bordering Austria, promoting crucifixes in school classrooms and opposing Islamic veils in public.

As a consistent vote winner, it has confidently co-governed in Berlin with Merkel's CDU.

But the dynamic changed after mid-2015, when Bavaria became Germany's frontline state for a mass influx of mostly Muslim refugees and migrants, half of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

After initial scenes of welcome, the influx sparked a xenophobic backlash that drove the nationwide rise of the AfD, which in last year's general elections took millions of votes to weaken all mainstream parties.

The CSU has since also attacked Merkel's initially liberal refugee policy with a ferocity that has grown as the Bavaria election neared, in an attempt to recapture voters drifting to the AfD.

As the spat escalated, the CSU's national Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has provoked rifts that drove her wobbly coalition to the brink of collapse.

Unusually, Merkel has been largely absent from the CSU election campaign, which in its final rally on Friday invited instead Austria's rightwing Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.</s>Germany’s political landscape is crumbling as Merkel’s sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment AfD has entered parliament for the first time.

Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) – sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – gained 35.5 percent in Germany’s largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.

It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.

The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor’s ‘hand’ there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.

The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel’s allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition “is massively losing its people,” while the AfD has “a big part of their electorate.”

The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.

The CSU loss and AFD gain are part of a wider trend happening across Germany, as Merkel has been losing support nationwide. With the breakthrough in Bavaria, the right-wing AfD is now present in 15 out of 16 federal states.

The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office.

Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!</s>Germany's political landscape is crumbling as Merkel's sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment Alternative for Germany (AfD) has entered parliament for the first time.Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) - sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - gained 35.5 percent in Germany's largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.CSU General Secretary Markus Blume has called it a "bitter day for the CSU," while declining to comment on possible coalitions.Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder of the CSU also said it is "not an easy day." However, he called his party "the strongest party" and added that the most important task is to keep the country stable and governable.The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor's 'hand' there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel's allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition "is massively losing its people," while the AfD has "a big part of their electorate."The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.Projections are rolling in for the final outcomes, with Infratest Dimap forecasting that the Greens will place second at 18.5% and the Free Voters will come in third with 11.5%. Trailing behind will be the AfD (11%) and the Social Democrats (10%). In dead last will be the FDP (5%) and the Left Party (3.5%).The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office.</s>BERLIN
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition government looked more fragile than ever yesterday after two of its three parties suffered severe election setbacks in the state of Bavaria.

The polls debacle for the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Germany ( SPD) cast a dark cloud over Dr Merkel's troubled grand coalition, dubbed the "GroKo", which has been plagued by infighting, mostly about immigration.

"The Bavaria election has made an early end to the GroKo much more likely," said Der Spiegel about the alliance Dr Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) forged in March after half a year of painful negotiations. "Two of three partners in the GroKo have suffered brutal losses. The third, Angela Merkel's CDU, fears the consequences."

Dr Merkel said yesterday the heavy losses for her conservative allies showed that voters had lost trust in the government, and she promised to fight to regain it.

"My lesson from this is that I, as Chancellor, must make sure that trust is won back. I will work on that with as much vigour as I can," she said at an event of German industry representatives.

In Sunday's elections, the CSU from Dr Merkel's conservative camp took a 10-point dive to 37 per cent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s.

Her other national coalition partner, the centre-left SPD, dropped to 9.7 per cent, halving its support in the party's worst-ever result in any state polls.

The biggest winners were the Greens, who surged to become Bavaria's second-strongest party with 17.5 per cent, drawing support especially in big cities like Munich.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has railed against Dr Merkel's 2015 decision to keep open German borders to a mass influx of refugees and migrants, scored 10 per cent.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel jubilantly declared that Dr Merkel's government "is not a grand coalition, but a mini coalition", and demanded that she "clear the way for new elections".

The Bavaria polls result shattered old certainties for the CSU, which has ruled almost single-handedly for decades in the southern state known for its fairytale castles, Oktoberfest and crucifixes on classroom walls. Since the mass migrant influx, in which Bavaria was Germany's front-line state, the party has hardened its usual folksy beerhall politics with tougher anti-immigration positions.

Nonetheless, the CSU and other mainstream parties suffered heavy losses in last year's general elections to the AfD, which became the first right-wing extremist party to enter the German national Parliament in significant numbers.

The CSU's Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has harshly criticised Dr Merkel and the SPD over their more liberal stance on immigration, repeatedly bringing their alliance to the brink of collapse.

After Sunday's elections, Mr Seehofer, 69, insisted that he would stay on as Dr Merkel's Interior Minister.

The SPD's deputy leader Ralf Stegner told Phoenix TV that "the citizens delivered a resounding slap" to the governing parties.

In Berlin, the GroKo leaders, still stunned by what was widely dubbed Bavaria's electoral earthquake, are now nervously looking ahead to another landmark regional vote at the end of the month.

Voters go to the polls on Oct 28 in central Hesse state, home to financial hub Frankfurt, where surveys show Merkel ally Volker Bouffier will face an uphill battle to stay on as state premier.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed on Monday to restore trust in her government after her conservative allies suffered heavy losses in a regional election, which their far-right foes hailed as “an earthquake” that would rock the ruling coalition.

The Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party of Merkel’s own Christian Democrats (CDU), slumped to its worst result in almost 70 years in Sunday’s election in Bavaria. The chancellor’s other coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), saw its support halved.

“My lesson from this is that I, as chancellor, must make sure that trust is won back. I will work on that with as much vigour as I can,” she said at an event of the BGA trade body.

CSU leader Horst Seehofer, who is also interior minister in Merkel’s loveless coalition, had hoped his anti-immigration rhetoric and criticism of Merkel’s liberal asylum policies would help his party fend off a threat from the far-right in Bavaria.

His strategy backfired as the CSU, which has ruled Bavaria for almost six decades, bled votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the ecologist Greens in equal measure. On Monday, he appeared to extend an olive branch.

“We will do our bit to ensure that the coalition can continue to do its work in a stable manner despite some of the comments that were made yesterday,” Seehofer told reporters.

He was referring to angry CSU delegates who blamed their party’s dismal showing on Merkel’s decision in 2015 to welcome some one million, mainly Muslim, asylum seekers, which has fuelled the rise of the AfD.

Merkel said the CSU had lost its absolute majority in the Bavarian parliament even though the regional economy was doing well.

“This shows that even a good economic situation and almost full employment are not sufficient if trust is lacking,” Merkel said.

The Bavarian economy grew by 2.8 percent last year, outpacing the national rate of 2.2 percent. It also has the lowest unemployment rate in Germany, 2.8 percent, compared with just over 5 percent nationally.

The AfD gleefully seized on the election outcome as a sign of a broader malaise for Merkel’s coalition, which has been shaken by disputes, including over immigration, since it took power seven months ago.

“We are very pleased because the goal for the Bavaria state election was to send an earthquake towards Berlin,” Martin Sichert, AfD leader in Bavaria, told a news conference. “This earthquake happened .... We are now excited to see what the consequences will be here in Berlin.”

The CSU also lost support to the Free Voters, a protest party of mainly conservative independents.

In Bavaria, the CSU will now try to form a coalition either with the Free Voters - its preferred option - or with the Greens who are ideologically distant.

The ruling coalition was borne of necessity rather than choice after an inconclusive general election in September 2017.

The Bavarian election was also a wake-up call for the SPD, which saw its support halve to just under 10 percent, prompting a discussion over the sustainability of its alliance at national level with Merkel’s conservative bloc.

SPD members are still bitter over their leaders’ decision to join the government after vowing before the 2017 election to sit in opposition if they lost to the conservatives. They are now demanding consequences.

SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party’s losses in Bavaria on infighting at national level between the CDU and CSU.

“It is obvious that the whole style of our cooperation must change,” she told reporters. “We urgently need to work on the style and communication and also on substantive progress.”

Polls suggest the ruling parties will again be punished in two weeks’ time in an election in the western state of Hesse, where they are expected to lose voters to the AfD and the Greens.

The state is ruled by Merkel’s CDU in a coalition with the Greens and a slump in support for the conservatives there would almost certainly further weaken the chancellor’s authority.

Merkel, who has been in power since 2005 and is Europe’s most powerful leader, then faces further potential pitfalls in the form of a CDU conclave and the party’s annual congress in early December.

The 64-year-old Merkel has won support from key conservatives in her bid for re-election as CDU chairwoman at the congress. But this could change if the CDU loses Hesse to an SPD-Greens coalition.

“If the CDU loses the government in Hesse, this will probably start a discussion within the CDU about Merkel’s position,” wrote mass-selling newspaper Bild.</s>The Christian Social Union (CSU), part of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition, has ruled the prosperous state since 1957 and now holds 101 seats in the 180-seat Landtag. Its leader, Horst Seehofer, is doubles as Germany's interior minister.

READ MORE: Bavaria Party Leader Says Region Needs Independence Amid Migrant Crisis

However, that may change soon, polls show. The latest ZDF survey predicts the CSU may suffer its second-biggest election loss; only around 34 percent of those surveyed indicated that they supported the party. The only time it fared worse was in 1950, when the right-wing party got 27.4 percent.

The ZDF survey ranked the Greens second with 19 percent, followed by the SPD with 12 percent. The centrist Free Voters (FW) and the AfD are each predicted to secure 10 percent of the vote, while the classical liberal Free Democratic Party may obtain 5.5 percent. All of them, save the far-right AfD, are potential candidates for a ruling coalition with the CSU.

The polls open at 8 a.m. (06:00 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (16:00 GMT). Nearly 9.5 million people out of the state’s 12.5 million residents are eligible to vote.</s>Bavarians were voting Sunday in a state election that was expected to deal the prosperous region’s long-dominant conservative party a stinging setback, with unpredictable consequences for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s federal government.

Some 9.5 million people are eligible to vote for the state legislature in Munich, where the Christian Social Union — an important but often-awkward Merkel ally — has held an absolute majority for all but five of the past 56 years.

Polls suggest it will lose that majority by a wide margin.

The CSU, which has taken a hard line against migration and has a socially conservative tradition, appears to be losing support on both the left and the right, with the Greens picking up liberal-minded voters and the far-right Alternative for Germany party set to win seats.

While the CSU is unlikely to lose power altogether after a 61-year reign, just needing coalition partners to govern would be a humiliating setback.

In Berlin, the CSU is one of three parties in Merkel’s federal coalition government along with its sister, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and the center-left Social Democrats.

That alliance has been notable largely for internal squabbling since it took office in March — with the CSU leader, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, often playing a starring role. The parties are sagging in national polls, and the Social Democrats also appear set to lose significant ground Sunday.

Back in Bavaria, a long-running CSU power struggle saw the 69-year-old Seehofer give up his job as state governor this year to younger rival Markus Soeder.

Soeder wants voters to give the CSU credit for Bavaria’s enviable prosperity, with an unemployment rate of just 2.8 percent, and keep it strong to ensure stability. He has blamed goings-on in Berlin for poor poll ratings.

“Where Germany is good, Bavaria is better,” he told a rally Friday. “It is no coincidence when the results on the economy, security and finances are so clear. A country needs a backbone — in Germany, the backbone is Bavaria, but in Bavaria the backbone is the Christian Social Union.”

Regional Green co-leader Katharina Schulze says people are fed up with the politics of “hate and agitation” and “want a policy that gives courage instead of fear.”

And the far-right Alternative for Germany, which entered Germany’s national parliament only last year, is appealing to voters who want an uncompromising anti-migration, law-and-order stance.

Seehofer has sparred with Merkel about migration on and off since 2015, when he assailed her decision to leave Germany’s borders open as refugees and others crossed the Balkans. They argued in June over whether to turn back small numbers of asylum-seekers at the German-Austrian border, briefly threatening to bring down the national government.

Seehofer also starred in a coalition crisis last month over Germany’s domestic intelligence chief, who was accused of downplaying recent far-right violence against migrants.

There is widespread speculation that a poor performance Sunday could cost Seehofer his job, though he has insisted he will stay. Soeder, meanwhile, has pivoted from tough talk on migration to trying to project an inclusive image as Bavaria’s leader.

Polls put support for the CSU as low as 33 percent, down from 47.7 percent in 2013. Alternative for Germany looks set to win 10 percent or more.

The Greens are running second, with support up to 19 percent, and the Social Democrats could lose nearly half the 20.6 percent they won five years ago.

Such results would likely leave the CSU seeking a coalition with the Greens, their often-bitter opponents, or an alliance with the pro-business Free Democrats and center-right Free Voters. A four-way alliance without the CSU might be mathematically possible, but impractical.

It’s not yet clear whether the Bavarian vote will affect the national government’s stability — or Merkel’s long-term future. Its aftershocks may be delayed, because another state election is coming Oct. 28 in neighboring Hesse, where conservative Volker Bouffier is defending the 19-year hold of Merkel’s CDU party on the governor’s office.

The 64-year-old Merkel, who has led Germany since 2005, has already been weakened by government infighting and the ouster of a close ally as her party’s parliamentary leader. She will hope that poor state election results don’t create new political problems before a CDU party convention in December where her leadership is due for renewal.

“Of course I hope for a good result for the CSU,” she said Friday. “I know that we don’t live in easy times. Otherwise, I’m waiting for the result.”</s>Voters in Germany’s economically dominant southern state of Bavaria delivered a stunning rebuke to the ruling Christian Social Union, in an election that delivered another crushing blow for the parties in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition in Berlin.

With all eyes on Sunday's Bavaria election, moments ago the first exit polls showed a historic collapse for the ruling CSU party, which has ruled Bavaria continuously since 1957, and which saw its share of the vote collapse from 47.7% in the 2013 election to just 35.5%, losing its absolute majority and suffering its worst result since 1950, as voters defected in their droves to the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany.

German newspaper Welt called the election "the most painful election defeat of the past 50 years for the CSU". As predicted in the polls, the CSU experienced a "historic debacle" in the Bavarian state elections, according to Welt. The CSU was followed by the Greens which soared in the election, more than doubling to 18.5% from 8.6% in 2013, the Free Voters also rose to 11% from 9.0%, in 2013.

Meanwhile, the nationalist AfD are expecting to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time ever with 11% of the vote, and as such are setting up for their post-election party. Party leader Alice Weidel already is having the first beer in the small community of Mamming in Lower Bavaria.

Meanwhile, the other establishment party, the left-of-center SPD also saw its support collapse from 20.6% in 2013 to just 10% today.

The full initial results from an ARD exit poll are as follows:

The breakdown by gender did not show any marked variations when it comes to CSU support, although more women voted for the Greens, while far more men supported the AfD:

There was a greater variation by educational level, with highly educated voters tending more towards the green GRÜNE (G/EFA) and liberal FDP (ALDE) then the average, while low/middle educated voters tended more towards CSU (EPP) and AfD (EFDD)

This was the worst result for the CSU since 1950.

As the FT notes, the campaign was dominated by the divisive issue of immigration, in a sign of how the shockwaves from Merkel’s disastrous decision to let in more than a million refugees in 2015-16 are continuing to reverberate through German politics and to reshape the party landscape.

Alarmed by the rise of the anti-immigration, populist AfD, the CSU tried to outflank them by talking tough on immigration and picking fights with Ms Merkel over asylum policy.

But the strategy appeared to have backfired spectacularly by alienating tens of thousands of moderate CSU voters and driving them into the arms of the Greens.

Meanwhile, as support the CSU and SPD collapsed, the result confirmed the Greens’ status as the rising force in German politics. Running on a platform of open borders, liberal social values and the fight against climate change the party saw its support surge to 18.5%, from 8.4% in 2013. Meanwhile the AfD won 11%, and for the first time entered the Bavarian regional assembly.

The CSU had governed the state with an absolute majority for most of the last 60 years. “It was Bavaria and Bavaria was the CSU. That is now no longer the case.”

The latest collapse of Germany's establishment parties highlights the shaky ground the grand coalition in Berlin is now resting on as all three parties in the alliance, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the CSU and the SPD, are haemorrhaging support. Some are now questioning whether the coalition, already frayed by personal rivalries and near constant bickering over policy, can survive a full term in office.

“This outcome throws ever more doubt on the future of the grand coalition,” said Heinrich Oberreuter, head of the Passau Journalism Institute and an expert on the CSU. “Based on current polls, if an election were held now, the CDU, CSU and SPD would not even command a majority in the Bundestag.”

The CSU will now be be forced to form a coalition government — a humiliating outcome for a party that has run Bavaria single-handedly for 49 of the last 54 years. Its preference is probably for a three-party coalition with the Free Voters, a small party that is mainly focused on local politics. It could also team up with the Greens, though it would be highly reluctant to do so: the two parties are deeply divided over immigration, transport and environmental policy.

What happens next?

Now that we know that the "unexpected comeback" scenario previewed earlier is off, here is what the "historic defeat" would mean for Germany in the coming days, as noted earlier by ING:

Historic defeat: The CSU would probably still lead the next Bavarian government with one or two coalition partners. There would be no significant shift in the federal upper house. Instead, Chancellor Merkel would emerge as the real winner of the election. The CSU would need some time to digest such an election defeat, focusing on inner-party issues and wasting less energy on conflicts with Merkel. As a result, the coalition in Berlin could again focus on implementing the substance of its coalition agreement. At the same time, however, a historic CSU defeat could be a worrying sign for Merkel, marking a new chapter in the deterioration of the conservative bloc. A significant loss would simultaneously fuel the AfD's position as a strong opposition party, illustrating the increasing frustration of some voters with established parties, a trend which would definitely complicate coalition-building at the next federal election.

It could be worse: as Deutsche Welle noted earlier, the CSU collapse could lead to Seehofer's resignation from Merkel's government, and conceivably the exit of Markus Söder, Bavaria's prime minister from the Bavarian state premiership, which would remove two of the chancellor's most outspoken critics from power, and give her room to govern in the calmer, crisis-free manner she is accustomed to.

Furthermore, the heavy loss and potentially big resignations in the CSU might push a desperate party in a more volatile, abrasive direction at the national level. That would further antagonize the SPD, the center-left junior partners in Merkel's coalition, themselves desperate for a new direction and already impatient with Seehofer's destabilizing antics, and precipitate a break-up of the age-old CDU/CSU alliance, and therefore a break-up of Merkel's grand coalition. In short: Anything could happen after Sunday, up to and including Merkel's fall.
Voters in Bavaria, Germany go to the polls for electing the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria, with the Christian-democratic conservative CSU party suffering significant losses.