Tuesday’s special election in a central Ohio congressional district will provide tangible evidence of where the battle for the House stands three months out from the midterms.

Both parties have deployed their 2018 playbooks for the final special election before November, and its importance far exceeds the typical House race: If Democrat Danny O’Connor prevails, it will be a sign that Democrats are poised to take back the House next year, despite an avalanche of Republican outside money.

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But if Troy Balderson, the GOP nominee, wins, it will give Republicans hope that the House isn’t lost, and that President Donald Trump can still help the party get out the vote this fall.

The Ohio special election isn’t the only key race on the ballot on Tuesday. There are also primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state — with hypercompetitive gubernatorial contests in Kansas and Michigan, and nominees set to be picked for a number of House races on the November battlefield.

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time in the Ohio special election. In the primaries, polls close statewide at 8 p.m. in Missouri, 9 p.m. in Michigan and Kansas, and 11 p.m. in Washington.

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Here are five things to watch as the results roll in:

What will Ohio tell us about the GOP playbook of Trump and Pelosi?

The special election in Ohio will test the potency of boiling down a House race to two candidates not on the ballot: Trump and Nancy Pelosi, a pair of polarizing figures that each party hopes will drive turnout.

Trump campaigned alongside Balderson last weekend, aiming to juice support for the state senator in a race that’s tightened into single digits, according to public and private polling. But the president’s rally — along with a negative tweet about Ohio’s favorite son and NBA star, LeBron James — also risks alienating well-educated Columbus suburbanites who prefer Gov. John Kasich to the president and could swing the special election.

But Republicans believe that “Trump stoked the base. He energized them this weekend, so that will help balance out the intensity on the Democratic side,” said Mark Weaver, a Republican strategist based in Ohio. “The race is closer than it ought to be, but this is still a Republican district. And the fundamentals are on Troy’s side.”

Republicans also tried to tie O’Connor to Pelosi in TV ads, a strategy the GOP has used in special elections throughout the past year and is prepared to replicate in the fall. O’Connor tried to cut into the anti-Trump-Republican voting bloc by signaling his independence from his national party, pledging not to support Pelosi in his first and last TV ads. But in the middle, O’Connor flubbed his answer on Pelosi in an MSNBC interview, which Republicans have deployed against him in their own ads.

If Democrat Danny O’Connor prevails, it will be a sign that Democrats are poised to take back the House next year. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

The results out of Tuesday’s special election will give each party hard data on how a red-leaning seat performs, just three months out from the November midterms. But Tuesday isn’t only about a data point: O’Connor and Balderson will face off again in the general election, and the winner of the special will certainly have a leg up in the race for a full term.

How does Trump’s last-minute endorsement in Kansas alter the governor’s race?

Kris Kobach was an early Trump ally, advising the then-candidate on immigration policy and protecting against voter fraud. “One of the things that struck me when I first met him and spoke to him for the first time is just how intellectually hungry he was,” Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, told POLITICO just before the 2016 election of his first meeting with Trump.

So when Trump endorsed Kobach’s gubernatorial campaign in a tweet just 20 hours before the polls open, some might have wondered, “What took so long?”

But Trump had good reason to stay on the sidelines. Kobach is challenging incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer, the former lieutenant governor who was elevated to the top job because Trump tapped then-Gov. Sam Brownback for a State Department post.

Moreover, the president had been urged to stay on the sidelines by the Republican Governors Association and some White House advisers, who fear that Kobach could be defeated in a general election. (And even if Kobach wins, some Republicans believe he would drag down the party’s other candidates, including in the competitive 2nd and 3rd congressional districts targeted by Democrats.)

Kansas might be a solidly red state in national politics — Trump won it by 27 points in 2016 — but Brownback was wildly unpopular by the time he left office. After nearly a decade of losses to Brownback and his allies, GOP moderates have been reasserting their power in recent years. (The 95-year-old Bob Dole endorsed Colyer in a tweet of his own Monday afternoon.)

But Colyer isn’t alone on the ballot as a Kobach alternative, and Jim Barnett — the 2006 GOP nominee for governor — has emphasized Colyer’s ties to Brownback to stake his claim to the moderate lane. If Kobach wins a narrow victory on Tuesday, Trump will likely be able to take credit for his victory — and any resulting GOP heartburn over Kobach’s prospects against the expected Democratic candidate, state Sen. Laura Kelly.

Will Trump’s Michigan endorsements pay off?

Kobach isn’t the only Trump-endorsed candidate on a primary ballot on Tuesday. The president is also backing two men running statewide in Michigan, one of the three states Trump flipped to propel him to an upset victory in the 2016 presidential race.

For governor, Trump picked state Attorney General Bill Schuette over Lt. Gov. Brian Calley. Polls show Schuette with a double-digit lead in the contest, and few observers are expecting an upset from Calley, who is backed by outgoing moderate Gov. Rick Snyder.

Trump has also endorsed in the Senate race, backing businessman John James, an African-American Army veteran, over self-funder Sandy Pensler. In a reaffirmation of his initial endorsement last month, Trump, in a tweet Monday called James a “potential Republican Star.”

Polling is limited, but James appears to have moved past Pensler, whose campaign turned ugly in the final days. A racially charged Pensler ad that began airing last week said James “thinks he’s a celebrity, a rock star. But peel back the onion, and you find Jesse Jackson.”

Can Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez play kingmaker in Democratic primaries?

It’s been six weeks since Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shocked the political world by ousting Rep. Joe Crowley of New York in a Democratic primary, and liberals are angling for their next victory.

There are a number of targets on Tuesday — most prominently Abdul El-Sayed, a 33-year-old physician running for governor in Michigan against an establishment-backed candidate, former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer.

Ocasio-Cortez campaigned with El-Sayed in late July, while Sanders visited this past weekend. The final polls gave Whitmer a double-digit lead over El-Sayed and a self-funding candidate, Shri Thanedar — but those surveys are two weeks old.

Back in July, Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez actually hit the road together to campaign for two congressional candidates in Kansas, including Brent Welder, a former Sanders campaign staffer seeking to take on Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) in the fall. Of the three major Democratic candidates running in the suburban Kansas City district, Welder is viewed as the most liberal — and Republicans are confident they can paint him as out-of-step with a traditionally Republican area that has recoiled at Trump’s GOP.

Ocasio-Cortez is also backing a liberal Democrat seeking to unseat an incumbent in a primary Tuesday: Cori Bush, who is running against Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) in a St. Louis-based district. Bush, an ordained minister and registered nurse, supported Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary. But the Vermont senator hasn’t reciprocated and backed her against one of his former House colleagues.

What are Democrats’ chances to win a battleground House seat in Washington?

Democrats have been waiting for a clean shot at Dave Reichert’s House seat for nearly a decade. The suburban Seattle district votes for Democrats at the presidential level, but Reichert — the popular former sheriff of King County — has won reelection easily in recent cycles.

That prompted lots of Democratic optimism when Reichert announced his retirement last year. Republicans landed their top recruit, however, and it was a familiar face: Dino Rossi, who has narrowly lost three statewide elections in his career, including a 133-vote defeat against Christine Gregoire for governor in 2004. Rossi has been a fundraising machine, bringing in $3 million for the race through mid-July.

Tuesday’s primary will tell us a lot about the race. Like California, Washington uses the top-two primary system, in which all candidates run together on the ballot, and the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party. There are 12 candidates on the ballot Tuesday in Washington’s 8th District, and Rossi is expected to finish first.

The real competition is for second place, with three Democrats thought to be the top contenders: Kim Schrier, a pediatrician, attorney Jason Rittereiser and former public-health official Shannon Hader.

But sharp observers will be also paying close attention to the share of the vote earned by Rossi and the two other Republicans running on Tuesday — and whether the district is poised to flip after decades of GOP representation.</s>We wanted to pass along some background info and recent polling data for tomorrow's special election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District.

Tomorrow's vote is to elect a member to finish the unexpired term of Congressman Pat Tiberi (R), who resigned last year to run the Ohio Business Roundtable. We have covered this race previously and it is being closely watched nationally. The OH-12 special election is the last Congressional special election nationally before the November general election. Democrats have generally performed well in other special elections since President Trump took office and this race affords them one more chance to drive momentum into November. Republicans are hoping to stop the 'blue wave' that has been driving voter turnout and protect their Congressional majorities. The loss of GOP majorities in either chamber of the US Congress would be a significant blow to President Trump's agenda.

The 12th Congressional District has a significant population center in northern Franklin County and Delaware County; it encompasses several wealthy Columbus suburbs. The district extends northward along I-71 to Mansfield and eastward along I-70 to Zanesville-the 12th Congressional District covers portions of Franklin, Marion, Richland, and Muskingum Counties and all of Morrow, Delaware, and Licking Counties. It is a diverse district with many rural and Appalachian communities along with affluent Columbus suburbs. Trump carried the 12th District in 2016, though both Congressman Tiberi and US Senator Rob Portman outperformed him in the district. The 12th District has been under Republican control since 1982, when John Kasich won the seat. Until recently, the seat was considered a safe Republican seat; however the retirement of Tiberi and increasing anti-Trump sentiment have afforded Democrats a chance to pick-up the 12th.

State Senator Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) won a crowded primary in May to be the Republican nominee. Balderson resides in the eastern portion of the 12th Congressional District and only Licking and Muskingum Counties are in his State Senate District. Balderson did defeat several opponents from Delaware and Franklin Counties despite this geographic disadvantage. House Speaker Paul Ryan, Vice President Mike Pence, and President Donald Trump have all held events for Balderson in the 12th District; he also picked up the endorsement of Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Congressman Pat Tiberi. This is intriguing given that both Kasich and Tiberi did not support President Trump in 2016. Meanwhile, Democrats have rallied around Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, who also won a contested primary. O'Connor is relatively new to politics and has vocally criticized the leadership of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. He was endorsed by the Columbus Dispatch over Balderson earlier this year.

Early polls gave Balderson a strong advantage, however O'Connor has closed the gap in recent weeks. Real Clear Politics shows Balderson has a composite spread of +3.7%, which is within the margin of error for most polls. Sabato's Crystal Ball, a popular Congressional election newsletter, has downgraded the 12th District from 'likely R' to 'toss-up'. Here is a snapshot of recent polls for the 12th District special election-

Generally, Balderson's numbers have stayed static while O'Connor has slowly progressed. In national polls, Democrats have a +7% advantage in a generic matchup; this has erased much of the partisan advantage in the 12th Congressional District. Tiberi was a popular incumbent who held the seat for nearly two decades and often won by double-digits; many voters in the 12th District have not seen Balderson's name on the ballot until this year. Tomorrow's special election will be discussed extensively no matter who wins. For Democrats, its another chance to win a Congressional seat in a district carried by Trump in 2016; for Republicans its a final chance to halt Democratic momentum going into November. Given that Trump made a personal appearance in the district this past weekend, a loss would be a personal embarrassment and could lead to more Republicans distancing themselves from the President over the next few months.

No matter who wins tomorrow, both Balderson and O'Connor will be on the ballot again in November seeking a new term for 2019. A loss tomorrow does not necessarily mean that a candidate can't succeed in November. However, given the significant amount of party resources expended in the special election race, the losing candidate will be hard-pressed to justify continued efforts between now and November.

If you have any questions or would like more info regarding the 12th District please reach out to OABA or Belinda Jones.</s>An Emerson College e-Poll released on Monday shows that Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is a dead heat between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson.

The Emerson College Polling Society said in a statement accompanying the release of the poll:

The final US Congressional special election before the November midterm elections will be held on August 7 in Ohio’s 12th district and it shows a neck and neck race: the Democrat, Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor has 47% of the vote and Republican, State Senator Troy Balderson is at 46%, 7% of very likely voters were undecided. The data was collected August 2 to 4, with +/-5 percentage points. The poll was taken prior to President Trump’s rally in the district on August 4.

Both Congressional candidates are polarizing figures O’Connor has a 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable, while Balderson has a 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. President Trump is more popular in the district than he is nationwide with a 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Better news for Balderson, is that Pelosi is severely disliked with 56% disapproval and a 22% approval rating. Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for O’Connor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%. A gender divide has emerged as well in the race. Males back Balderson 53%-42%, while females break for O’Connor 51%-40%.

The Emerson College e-Poll “was conducted August 2-4, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely voters, n=431, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, age, county and gender based on a turnout out model.”

On Saturday night, President Trump traveled to the 12th Congressional District, where he held a rally of support for Balderson, as Breitbart News reported.

The president also tweeted his full endorsement of Balderson earlier on Saturday:

President Trump’s pointed criticism of Democrat candidate Danny O’Connor for “lying about his relationship with Nancy Pelosi” hits O’Connor at his most vulnerable.

After promising throughout his campaign that he would not vote for Pelosi for speaker of the House if elected, O’Connor admitted to Chris Matthews on MSNBC last month that he will, in fact, vote for Pelosi for speaker if he is elected.

For his part, O’Connor claims that if he wins on Tuesday, it will foreshadow a coming “Blue Wave” in the November midterm elections.

“I’m Danny O’Connor, and tomorrow I am on the ballot in a special congressional election in Ohio’s 12th district. With a matter of hours before voters head to the polls, I am asking for your support to flip this seat from red to blue,” he said in a fundraising email Monday morning.

“This district has been held by a Republican representative for decades — and Trump won it by 11 points in 2016. Pulling off a victory here won’t be easy. But if we make it happen, it will send shockwaves through the Republican Party,” O’Connor continued.

“Tomorrow is the last congressional special election before the midterms — and winning in Ohio’s 12th district will give Democrats all the momentum heading into November,” O’Connor concluded in his fundraising email.</s>Republicans appeared to have held off a Democratic surge on Tuesday in a traditionally conservative Ohio district that many Democrats had hoped would serve up an unlikely victory and boost their chances of sweeping wins in November’s midterm elections.

With a margin of 50.2 per cent to 49.3 per cent, the Republican Troy Balderson was narrowly ahead of the Democrat Danny O’Connor on Tuesday night in a congressional special election sparked by the resignation of the long-time incumbent Pat Tiberi to take a private sector job.

Republicans declared victory with Steve Stivers, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, saying “I’m proud that my fellow central Ohioan, Troy Balderson, will join me in Congress” and congratulating him on a “hard-fought victory”.

Mr O’Connor, however, did not immediately concede, telling a crowd of supporters: “Can you believe how close this is? We are in a tie ballgame.”

With all votes counted, Mr Balderson had a lead of 1,754 votes. However, according to the Ohio secretary of state, there remained 3,435 provisional ballots to be counted and 5,045 outstanding absentee ballots. If, after those are counted, the margin is within 0.5 per cent, an automatic recount would be triggered.

The race had been closely watched as a key test of Republican fortunes in prosperous traditionally conservative suburbs where voters have soured on Donald Trump. However, while Mr Balderson’s performance was far weaker than past Republicans in the district, he held on to just enough suburban Republicans to hold a narrow lead on election night.

While Democrats will be disappointed that were not able to claim an outright victory, the tight margin will still be a reason for optimism. Republicans were only able to win a once safe district by spending millions in outside money and an election eve visit from Mr Trump. In November, Republicans will be defending more than 70 seats that are considered more favourable for Democrats and will not have those advantages.

The national mood wasn’t the only impediment for Mr Balderson. The Ohio Republican had been considered by operatives to be an underwhelming candidate. He was a lacklustre fundraiser and avoided the press even to point of shunning friendly outlets like Fox News.

Even in voter interactions, Mr Balderson left much to be desired. Appearing at a polling place on election day, the Republican candidate milled around a parking lot for several minutes, waving and saying hello to passersby without making any attempt to ask for their votes.

Mr Balderson also had several stumbles. He went back and forth about how much to separate himself from Mr Trump. This was a particularly thorny issue in the home district of John Kasich, the popular Republican governor of the state who has remained an unabashed critic of Mr Trump. At one point in the campaign, Mr Balderson couldn’t name a single area of disagreement but has since cited differences on tariffs and immigration. Those mild criticisms were sufficient to earn him a belated endorsement from Mr Kasich.

That endorsement might have helped to push Mr Balderson over the edge. In Delaware County, a suburban Republican stronghold that has been Mr Kasich’s base, several voters said they supported Mr Balderson despite feeling uneasy about Mr Trump and cited Ohio’s governor in doing so.

Mr O’Connor ended up winning 46 per cent of the vote there, seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a significant landmark in a county that no Democratic presidential candidate has won in 100 years.

However Mr Trump, who held a rally for Balderson on Saturday, took credit for the result on Twitter. He said “When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.”

The close result though was celebrated as a victory by many at Mr O’Connor’s election night party. David Pepper, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic party, was buoyed by the result. “We were underdogs from the start. The idea that we kept it this close, if Republicans aren’t worried about that they are making a mistake.” – Guardian</s>Results Of House Special Election In Ohio Are Still Up In The Air

Rachel Martin talks to Jesse Hunt of the National Republican Congressional Committee about Ohio's 12th Congressional District. Republican Troy Balderson claimed victory but it's still close to call.</s>WESTERVILLE, Ohio (AP) — The Latest on primaries in Missouri, Kansas, Michigan and Washington and a congressional special election in Ohio (all times local):

The polls have closed in Ohio, where a Republican state senator backed by President Donald Trump is competing with a Democratic county official in a special election for an open U.S. House seat long held by the GOP.

Voters Tuesday were choosing between Sen. Troy Balderson and Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor to complete the term of a Republican who retired in January. The race is a test of voter sentiment before the general election in November, when Balderson and O'Connor will battle again for the full two-year term.

Trump campaigned for Balderson, arguing Republicans need to control Congress and casting the midterms as a referendum on himself.

A Balderson victory would buoy Republicans concerned about how Trump might be playing in political battleground states. An O'Connor win would elate Democrats hoping for a Trump backlash.

A St. Louis County election official blames a "comedy of errors" for some voters being turned away in one Missouri town.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that turnout in the St. Louis region for Tuesday's primary election was brisk, with about 35 percent of registered voters going to the polls. But there were sporadic problems, most notably at Holman Elementary School in Berkeley.

Democratic elections director Eric Fey says a Republican poll worker had to leave because of a family emergency. The other two went to lunch, apparently got lost and didn't return.

It was unclear how many people were turned away during the 45 minutes it took to get additional Republican poll workers to the polling place.

Elsewhere in St. Louis County, some poll workers mistakenly gave voters nonpartisan ballots that included only issues, not party primary races.

Battleground Ohio is deciding the year's final special election, a congressional faceoff that tests anew President Donald Trump's political clout and the appeal of his signature tax cuts.

Seventy-one-year-old retiree Gregg Schirra voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Democrat Danny O'Connor on Tuesday in Westerville.

He says, "We gave Trump a fair chance and now it's time to get the legislature working and get back on track."

At Delaware Township Hall north of Columbus, 71-year-old retiree Katheryn Terry voted for Republican Troy Balderson, saying she felt the 31-year-old O'Connor was just too young and she wasn't happy with anything about his candidacy.

She says: "I'm trying to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, and so I'm trying to be as supportive as I can, because things have turned around."

Some Republican voters in Kansas say President Donald Trump's endorsement of Secretary of State Kris Kobach (KOH'-bahk) mattered to them as they cast votes in the GOP primary for governor.

Fifty-three-year-old math teacher Tanya Hein said Tuesday that she always planned to vote for Kobach, but Trump's endorsement was "icing on the cake."

She says incumbent Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer was part of former Gov. Sam Brownback's administration and she wanted someone with experience who was not tied to Brownback.

Seventy-three-year-old retired construction company owner Richard Cronister also says Trump's endorsement was important to him.

He says he thinks Trump's tax cuts have helped the economy and he likes Trump's stance against illegal immigration.

He also likes Kobach's style, saying, "It's refreshing to hear a politician tell the truth."

Candidates in a tight congressional race are making final rounds in the sprawling central Ohio district.

The seat is open following the retirement of former GOP U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi (TEE'-behr-ee) after nearly 18 years in office.

Among stops for Democrat Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County recorder, was speaking to volunteers and supporters at his campaign headquarters Tuesday morning in Columbus.

Republican Troy Balderson, a two-term state senator, included a visit to Genoa Baptist Church in Westerville in suburban Columbus Tuesday afternoon.

Jerry Cupp, a 61-year-old retiree in Westerville, voted for Balderson, but said he didn't see much difference between the candidates. He wants Congress to tackle health care.

Nick Losacco, a 79-year-old Columbus car salesman, voted for O'Connor, saying he wanted Democrats to have more control in Congress.

Voting is underway in an Ohio special election that may provide clues to whether Democrats will retake the U.S. House in November.

Democrat Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County recorder, is running for an open congressional seat in central Ohio against Republican Troy Balderson, a two-term state senator. The seat opened up when ex-U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi (TEE'-behr-ee) retired after almost 18 years.

Trevor Moffitt is a public health doctoral student at Ohio State University who voted for O'Connor Tuesday.

The 29-year-old resident of suburban Westerville said he liked O'Connor's willingness to work with Republicans.

Mike Flynn, a hospital unit coordinator from suburban New Albany, voted for Balderson as a show of support for Tiberi. Flynn said he didn't care for the mudslinging on either side of the campaign.

President Donald Trump's preferred congressional candidate — and his signature tax cuts — are about to be tested in battleground Ohio in the season's final high-stakes special election.

The midsummer affair comes as Trump's shadow looms over primary contests in four other states. None is bigger than Kansas, where the Republican president roiled the governor's race by opposing the sitting Republican governor on the eve of the election.

Tuesday's elections, like dozens before them, pit the strength of the Republican president's fiery coalition against the Democratic Party's anti-Trump resistance. The results will help determine the political landscape — and Trump's standing within his own party — just three months before November's midterm elections.

Voters in Ohio and Kansas join those across Missouri, Michigan and Washington state at the ballot box.</s>Polls are closing in Ohio's special House election on Tuesday as voters in the 12th district choose a replacement for Representative Pat Tiberi, a Republican who resigned in order to go into private industry.

President Trump has gone all-in for Troy Balderson - appearing at a Saturday rally to drum up support for the Republican candidate - reiterating his support in a subsequent tweet and claiming that his opponent, Democrat Danny O'Connor would be "a total puppet for Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters."

As such, the 12th district race - expected to be tight, will be used by some to gauge whether Republicans will ride a "Red Wave" this fall as Trump has predicted, or if the much talked about "blue wave" will give Democrats back their power in one or both chambers of Congress.

The race shouldn’t be this close: Trump won the suburban district in 2016 by 11 points. And the seat, previously held by retired Rep. Pat Tiberi (R), has been held by Republicans since 1980.

 

 But Trump’s popularity is stuck in the mid-40s nationally, giving hope to Democrats they can win the Ohio seat. Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take over the House in November.

 

 The Ohio race has therefore become a key part of Trump’s appeal, and turned into a must-win for Republicans who are seeking to tie O’Connor to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). -The Hill
• Democrats typically dominate early voting, so the first results are likely to favor O'Connor

Democrats got an early advantage by sending out their “request for absentee ballot” forms earlier than Republicans, and the hard work paid off: As of Thursday, 12,579 Democrats in the district had requested early ballots, with 10,565 actually returning them. By contrast, 11,398 Republicans had requested ballots, while 7,757 had returned them. Through Friday, 55 percent of the early votes had come from registered Democrats in Franklin, Delaware and Licking counties — which contain about four-fifths of the 12th District’s population — compared with 30 percent from Republicans, according to figures compiled by election statistics guru Mike Dawson. Compare that to a Republican advantage of 35 percent to 26 percent in the November 2016 vote, and the Democratic turnaround is obvious. -WHIOTV7
• Crappy timing; the Ohio election is being held in the dead of summer, the week before school begins in much of the state. It's a "lousy" time to hold an election, according to one GOP operative, WHIOTV reports, as it's also a key week for vacations.
• Delaware County is key - while Republicans concede that O'Connor will most likely win Franklin County - the "X-Factor" is Delaware County, which is a large reason Trump visited there on Saturday.

The county supported Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 15 points in 2016. But while that seems a solid lead, it was narrower than in most other counties in Ohio. The county is also heavily populated by a more business-friendly, moderate breed of Republican than the populist Trump. -WHIOTV7
• A Balderson win means that the Republican establishment - Trump supporters and never-Trumpers alike, came together to defend a long-held GOP district. A loss will not look good for the "red wave."

“The 12th is the canary in the coal mine for Republicans,” said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron. “And if the canary dies, I think many Republican Congress people are going to be looking for jobs.” -WHIOTV7</s>WESTERVILLE, Ohio (AP) — The Latest on primaries in Missouri, Kansas, Michigan and Washington and a congressional special election in Ohio (all times local):

Democrat Danny O’Connor has jumped out to a significant lead over Republican Troy Balderson in early returns in Ohio’s congressional special election.

Voters on Tuesday were choosing between Balderson, a state senator, and O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder, to complete the term of a Republican who retired in January. The race is a test of voter sentiment before the general election in November, when Balderson and O’Connor will battle again for the full two-year term.

President Donald Trump campaigned for Balderson, arguing Republicans need to control Congress and casting the midterms as a referendum on himself.

A Balderson victory would buoy Republicans concerned about how Trump might be playing in political battleground states. An O’Connor win would elate Democrats hoping for a Trump backlash.

Polls have closed in Missouri and are beginning to close in parts of Kansas and Michigan on a night of primary elections.

Tuesday’s races, like dozens before them, pitted the strength of President Donald Trump’s fiery supporters against the Democratic Party’s anti-Trump resistance. The results will help determine the political landscape — and Trump’s standing within his own party — just three months before the GOP defends its House and Senate majorities across the nation.

One of the top races of the night is in Kansas, where Secretary of State Kris Kobach (KOH’-bahk) was trying to unseat Gov. Jeff Colyer. Kobach has been backed by the president.

Should the polarizing Kobach win the primary, some Republican operatives fear he could lose the governor’s seat to Democrats this fall.

The polls have closed in Ohio, where a Republican state senator backed by President Donald Trump is competing with a Democratic county official in a special election for an open U.S. House seat long held by the GOP.

Voters Tuesday were choosing between Sen. Troy Balderson and Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor to complete the term of a Republican who retired in January. The race is a test of voter sentiment before the general election in November, when Balderson and O’Connor will battle again for the full two-year term.

Trump campaigned for Balderson, arguing Republicans need to control Congress and casting the midterms as a referendum on himself.

A Balderson victory would buoy Republicans concerned about how Trump might be playing in political battleground states. An O’Connor win would elate Democrats hoping for a Trump backlash.

A St. Louis County election official blames a “comedy of errors” for some voters being turned away in one Missouri town.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that turnout in the St. Louis region for Tuesday’s primary election was brisk, with about 35 percent of registered voters going to the polls. But there were sporadic problems, most notably at Holman Elementary School in Berkeley.

Democratic elections director Eric Fey says a Republican poll worker had to leave because of a family emergency. The other two went to lunch, apparently got lost and didn’t return.

It was unclear how many people were turned away during the 45 minutes it took to get additional Republican poll workers to the polling place.

Elsewhere in St. Louis County, some poll workers mistakenly gave voters nonpartisan ballots that included only issues, not party primary races.

Battleground Ohio is deciding the year’s final special election, a congressional faceoff that tests anew President Donald Trump’s political clout and the appeal of his signature tax cuts.

Seventy-one-year-old retiree Gregg Schirra voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Democrat Danny O’Connor on Tuesday in Westerville.

He says, “We gave Trump a fair chance and now it’s time to get the legislature working and get back on track.”

At Delaware Township Hall north of Columbus, 71-year-old retiree Katheryn Terry voted for Republican Troy Balderson, saying she felt the 31-year-old O’Connor was just too young and she wasn’t happy with anything about his candidacy.

She says: “I’m trying to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, and so I’m trying to be as supportive as I can, because things have turned around.”

Some Republican voters in Kansas say President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Secretary of State Kris Kobach (KOH’-bahk) mattered to them as they cast votes in the GOP primary for governor.

Fifty-three-year-old math teacher Tanya Hein said Tuesday that she always planned to vote for Kobach, but Trump’s endorsement was “icing on the cake.”

She says incumbent Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer was part of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration and she wanted someone with experience who was not tied to Brownback.

Seventy-three-year-old retired construction company owner Richard Cronister also says Trump’s endorsement was important to him.

He says he thinks Trump’s tax cuts have helped the economy and he likes Trump’s stance against illegal immigration.

He also likes Kobach’s style, saying, “It’s refreshing to hear a politician tell the truth.”

Candidates in a tight congressional race are making final rounds in the sprawling central Ohio district.

The seat is open following the retirement of former GOP U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi (TEE’-behr-ee) after nearly 18 years in office.

Among stops for Democrat Danny O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder, was speaking to volunteers and supporters at his campaign headquarters Tuesday morning in Columbus.

Republican Troy Balderson, a two-term state senator, included a visit to Genoa Baptist Church in Westerville in suburban Columbus Tuesday afternoon.

Jerry Cupp, a 61-year-old retiree in Westerville, voted for Balderson, but said he didn’t see much difference between the candidates. He wants Congress to tackle health care.

Nick Losacco, a 79-year-old Columbus car salesman, voted for O’Connor, saying he wanted Democrats to have more control in Congress.

Voting is underway in an Ohio special election that may provide clues to whether Democrats will retake the U.S. House in November.

Democrat Danny O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder, is running for an open congressional seat in central Ohio against Republican Troy Balderson, a two-term state senator. The seat opened up when ex-U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi (TEE’-behr-ee) retired after almost 18 years.

Trevor Moffitt is a public health doctoral student at Ohio State University who voted for O’Connor Tuesday.

The 29-year-old resident of suburban Westerville said he liked O’Connor’s willingness to work with Republicans.

Mike Flynn, a hospital unit coordinator from suburban New Albany, voted for Balderson as a show of support for Tiberi. Flynn said he didn’t care for the mudslinging on either side of the campaign.

President Donald Trump’s preferred congressional candidate — and his signature tax cuts — are about to be tested in battleground Ohio in the season’s final high-stakes special election.

The midsummer affair comes as Trump’s shadow looms over primary contests in four other states. None is bigger than Kansas, where the Republican president roiled the governor’s race by opposing the sitting Republican governor on the eve of the election.

Tuesday’s elections, like dozens before them, pit the strength of the Republican president’s fiery coalition against the Democratic Party’s anti-Trump resistance. The results will help determine the political landscape — and Trump’s standing within his own party — just three months before November’s midterm elections.

Voters in Ohio and Kansas join those across Missouri, Michigan and Washington state at the ballot box.</s>WESTERVILLE, Ohio — A special congressional election that tested President Donald Trump’s clout and cost both parties millions of dollars in battleground Ohio was too close to call early Wednesday. Trump claimed victory nevertheless.

The president took credit for Republican Troy Balderson’s performance, calling it “a great victory,” even though the contest could be headed to a mandatory recount. Democrat Danny O’Connor, trailing in the latest count, vowed: “We’re not stopping now.”

The candidates were locked in a razor-thin race, which they will reprise in the general election in just three months. There were at least 3,367 provisional ballots left to be reviewed. That’s enough for O’Connor to potentially pick up enough to force a recount.

The Associated Press does not declare winners in races subject to an automatic recount.

The Republican president’s shadow also loomed over primary contests in four other states, none bigger than Kansas, where Trump roiled the governor’s race by opposing the GOP incumbent on the eve of the election.

The day’s races, like dozens before them, pitted Trump’s fiery supporters against the Democratic Party’s anti-Trump resistance. The results are helping determine the political landscape — and Trump’s standing within his own party — just before the GOP defends its House and Senate majorities in November.

Voters in Kansas, Missouri, Michigan and Washington state joined those in Ohio in Tuesday’s voting.

Kansas Republicans were fighting among themselves in a battle for governor, where Secretary of State Kris Kobach was trying to unseat Gov. Jeff Colyer.

Should the polarizing Kobach win the primary, some Republican operatives fear he could lose the governor’s seat to Democrats this fall. The race could become further disrupted if Kansas City-area businessman Greg Orman makes it onto the November ballot. He submitted petitions Monday with more than 10,000 signatures for what could become the most serious independent run for Kansas governor in decades.

“He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country – he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military,” the president tweeted on the eve of the election. “VOTE TUESDAY!”

Republicans were hoping for Democratic discord in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, a suburban Kansas City district where several candidates were fighting for the chance to take on Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder in November.
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• Trump reviving tough sanctions on Iran in effort to replace nuclear pact The five-way Democratic primary featured labor lawyer Brent Welder, who campaigned recently with self-described democratic socialists Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and ascending political star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York congressional candidate.

Also in the race: Native American attorney Sharice Davids and former school teacher Tom Niermann.

In Ohio, the script for the special election was somewhat familiar: An experienced Trump loyalist, Balderson, was fighting a strong challenge from O’Connor, a fresh-faced Democrat, in a congressional district held by the Republican Party for more than three decades. In an election morning tweet, Trump said Balderson would make a “great congressman.”

The winner takes the seat previously held by Pat Tiberi, a nine-term incumbent who resigned to take a job with an Ohio business group.

In a special election season that featured nearly a dozen congressional races, Democrats claimed just a handful of wins, but they may have cause for optimism this fall. In virtually every special election test dating back to the spring of 2017, Democratic candidates performed significantly better than their party in those same places two years earlier.

Trump won Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, for example, by more than 11 points in 2016; on Tuesday night, Balderson and O’Connor were separated by less than 1 point.

There are 79 House races this fall considered more competitive than the Ohio district — at least looking at Trump’s 2016 performance — according to data compiled by the Democrats’ national campaign committee.

Despite the deadlocked race, the specific Ohio returns suggest considerably higher Democratic enthusiasm less than 100 days before the midterms.

O’Connor’s total of nearly 100,000 votes far exceeded what the district’s former Republican congressman Pat Tiberi’s Democratic opponent got in 2014. Balderson’s total — just more than 101,500 votes — is barely two-thirds of Tiberi’s 2014 mark of about 150,000.

The two will face off again in November to see who holds the seat in 2019 and 2020.

“Over the next three months, I’m going to do everything I can to keep America great again, so that when we come back here in November — get ready, we gotta come back here in November — I have earned your vote for a second time,” Balderson told supporters.

It’s unclear how much Trump’s support helped or hurt Balderson. Described by campaign operatives as a “Whole Foods” district, the largely suburban region features a more affluent and educated voter base than the typical Trump stronghold.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a leading voice in the GOP’s shrinking anti-Trump wing, once represented the district in Congress.

At times, the race centered on Trump’s tax cuts as much as the candidates.

O’Connor and his Democratic allies railed against the tax plan, casting it as a giveaway for the rich that exacerbates federal deficits and threatens Medicare and Social Security. Balderson and his Republican allies have backed away from the tax plan in recent weeks, training their fire instead on top House Democrat Nancy Pelosi.

O’Connor dominated Balderson on the local airwaves. His campaign spent $2.25 million on advertising compared to Balderson’s $507,000, according to campaign tallies of ad spending. The Republican campaign arm and its allied super PAC were forced to pick up the slack, spending more than $4 million between them.

In Michigan, three mainstream Democrats in suburban Detroit were among those vying for a chance at retiring Republican Rep. Dave Trott’s seat in November. The field included Fayrouz Saad, who would be the first Muslim woman in Congress.

And in suburban Seattle, three Democrats vied in a jungle primary for the seat held by another retiring Republican, Rep. Dave Reichert.

The field was set in two Senate contests as well.

In Missouri, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill claimed her party’s nomination, while state Attorney General Josh Hawley will represent the GOP.

And in Michigan, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow will take on military veteran and business executive John James, who won the Republican nomination. He would join Tim Scott of South Carolina as the only black Republican senators if he wins in November.
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Peoples reported from Washington. Associated Press writers John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas, and Angie Wang in Westerville, Ohio, contributed.

Sign up for “Politics in Focus,” a weekly newsletter showcasing the AP’s best political reporting from around the country leading up to the midterm elections: https://bit.ly/2ICEr3D</s>COLUMBUS, Ohio (CN) – In the suburbs of Columbus, Ohio, an underdog Democrat has a chance to paint a Republican stronghold blue Tuesday.

Voters in Ohio’s 12th District will elect a representative to fill the seat for the remainder of 2018, a seat vacated by Representative Pat Tiberi in January when he left to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. The choice is between two relative newcomers: Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor, a Democrat, and State Senator Troy Balderson, a Republican.

Ohio’s 12th District stretches from rural and manufacturing areas to the suburbs of Columbus, a conservative district with pockets of liberalism. The vacant seat has been held by a Republican for the last 35 years, although Democrats have been gaining ground and hope to turn the district on Tuesday.

Feeling the heat, Republicans have gone on the offensive. With O’Connor only one percentage point behind in the latest poll from Monmouth University, President Donald Trump showed up Saturday night for a last-minute rally in Delaware County. Trump called for his supporters to vote for Balderson, claiming a vote for O’Connor is a vote to let the gang MS-13, criminals and drugs run wild in the United States.

At 31 years old, O’Connor has limited experience in government. He grew up in a rural, conservative area, but was drawn to Democratic politics after law school. He worked for Franklin County Prosecutor Ron O’Brien, a Republican, and then practiced family law in a small firm in Columbus. He is engaged to a Republican who calls herself a “Danny-crat.”

In 2016, O’Connor was elected as Franklin County recorder, where he reduced the time it takes to file documents and enhanced services for veterans. His latest proposals aim to help the homeless and domestic violence victims.

On the other side of the ticket, Balderson, 57, has a bit more experience. Prior to politics, Balderson owned and ran a farm in southeastern Ohio, and worked for his family’s car dealership. He’s also a tri-athlete and participates in adventure sports.

He was elected to the Ohio House of Representatives in 2008, and accepted an appointment to the state senate in 2011. He held onto the seat in the 2012 and 2016 elections. Balderson currently serves as chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and is also a member of the Senate Finance Committee.

Balderson embraces Trump and his politics wholeheartedly, supporting the border wall and strong immigration laws. He also supports the Second Amendment and believes all life should be protected.

O’Connor hopes to bring a new perspective to Congress with his youth. He has refused contributions from corporate political action committees in an effort to stay out from under the thumb of special interests. He believes in strong border security through enforcement, but feels that roads and bridges should be rebuilt rather than Trump’s proposed border wall.

Balderson has garnered the support of not only President Trump, but also Governor John Kasich, who is known to disagree with Trump on a number of issues, although they are both Republicans. Kasich credits Balderson with helping to turn around Ohio’s economy through tax cuts and a balanced budget.

Tuesday’s special election is seen as a clear referendum on Trump’s policies and is considered a bellwether for November’s midterm elections.

No matter what happens on Tuesday, Ohio’s 12th District will get a chance to do it again in November. O’Connor and Balderson will again face each other in the midterms, this time to see who will represent the district for the full two-year term beginning in January.
A special election for Ohio's 12th congressional district is held following the resignation of Republican Representative Pat Tiberi. The Republican candidate is Troy Balderson and the Democratic candidate is Danny O'Connor.