Hawaii may have a hurricane on its horizon next week — though it’s far too early to tell how close it will get.

Hurricane Lane, a devastatingly strong Category 4 storm now, is heading west-northwest over the Pacific, and is forecast to weaken and pass south of the Aloha State around Wednesday or Thursday.

But the track is uncertain this early, and there’s a chance Lane by Tuesday night could bring winds of at least tropical-storm strength (39 mph and higher) to Hawaii’s Big Island, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says.

Early Saturday, the storm was more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph — the lowest threshold for a Category 4.

The storm is expected to weaken to a Category 1 (sustained winds of 74-95 mph) by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center says.

Six computer forecast models predict Lane’s center will pass south of Hawaii next week, but the outer bands still could bring strong winds to the islands if the center gets close enough.

Lane’s approach comes more than a week after Hawaii watched Hurricane Hector pass well to the south.</s>UPDATE: 11 p.m.

Hurricane Lane remained a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph late Sunday and its updated forecast includes a northwest turn that would bring it closer to the western Hawaiian islands later this week.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Oahu said Lane was 675 miles southeast of Hilo and 885 southeast of Honolulu, moving west at 14 mph, just before 11 p.m. Hurricane-force winds of 75 mph or more extend up to 30 miles from the storm’s center while tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extend 110 miles, forecasters said.

The latest 5-day forecast map for Lane shows the storm weakening but moving northwest by midweek, placing Oahu and Kauai in the track’s so-called “cone of uncertainty.”

The National Weather Service on Oahu issued a “hydrologic outlook” for Hawaii, saying that Lane could bring heavy rain and floods to the islands,

“Latest forecast models indicate that, regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Lane, an extremely moist air mass will move over the islands beginning around Wednesday, and then persist through the end of the week,” forecasters said. “This is expected to result in very heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding.”

The timing and location of the heavy rain remain uncertain, depending on Lane’s eventual track, but forecasters advise the public to stay informed and to be prepared.

“Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian islands should continue tomonitor the future progress of this system,” the 11 p.m. forecast said. “Based on the latest trends in the forecast, direct impacts on the islands can not be ruled out. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for some parts of the island chain early this week.”

In the meantime, Lane is expected to being high surf to the islands.

Eastern shores of the Big Island and Maui will be under a high surf advisory from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 p.m. Tuesday, the National Weather Center said. Waves up to 8-feet are expected.

“Surf may increase to warning levels for east- and/or south-facing shores later Tuesday or Wednesday as Lane progresses westward south of the state,” they said.

Forecasters warn of strong breaking waves, shore break, and strong longshore and rip currents making.

In addition, Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles, including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals, are under a hurricane watch.

6:30 p.m.

The National Weather Service issued a hurricane warning this evening for Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles.

NWS said there will be significant wave heights and possibility of thunderstorms at sea starting tonight and continuing through the week.

5 p.m.

Hurricane Lane is moving west in the Central Pacific and on a path that will take the category 3 hurricane east-southeast of Hawaii.

Hurricane Lane, with winds at 120 mph, is located 735 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 950 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. Some weakening and a gradual slowing in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said a large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island and east-facing shores of Maui overnight. The swell may produce large and dangerous surf along these shorelines starting Monday.

A high surf advisory is in effect for east-facing shores of the Big Island and Maui.

11:30 a.m.

As of 11 a.m. today, Hurricane Lane is located approximately 817 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,028 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. The storm continues to head west at about 14 mph, with sustained winds near 125 mph and higher gusts.

Lane continues to make its approach toward Hawaii as a Category 3 storm, although some weakening is forecast through Monday night. High surf is expected along southeast- and east-facing shores of Hawaii island, and possibly Maui, by tonight.

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Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

At 5 a.m. today, Lane was about 890 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,100 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, traveling west at 15 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii.

Forecasters said that a “large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly east-facing shores of Maui, by this evening,” producing large and dangerous surf by tonight or early Monday.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for Hawaii is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity. >> Tropical Storm: winds 39-73 mph >> Category 1: winds 74-95 mph >> Category 2: winds 96-110 mph >> Category 3: winds 111-129 mph >> Category 4: winds 130-156 mph >> Category 5: winds 157 mph and up

Lane has intensified quickly since forming in the East Pacific last week. It entered the Central Pacific Saturday as a Category 4 hurricane but has since weakened slightly. That weakening is expected to continue over the next five days, forecaster said. However, Lane will likely remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles, the hurricane center said early this morning.

“Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large.”

The five-day forecast calls for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, by Friday when it is expected to be hundreds of miles southwest of Oahu, according to the hurricane center.</s>Hurricane Lane will pass south of Hawaii’s Big Island next week as it tracks across the Pacific Ocean. The storm developed into a Category 4 hurricane on Saturday as it moved closer to the Central Pacific basin, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. As of 11pm HST (10am BST) on Saturday, the storm was 1,560km east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island and was travelling west-northwest over the Pacific. The track of Hurricane Lane is uncertain, but the current forecast is it will pass about 200 miles south of the southernmost tip of the Big Island at the midweek point next week.

The storm has current maximum-sustained winds of 125mph but it is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm by Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 74-95mph. This could bring winds of at least tropical storm strength (39mph and higher) to Hawaii’s Big Island, the NHC said. Lane will still be a hurricane when it passes south of Hawaii. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said: “Based on that track, impacts on at least the Big Island will not be much different than that was experienced with Hector two weeks earlier.

“Lane is likely to maintain major hurricane status for several days.” Hurricane Hector passed to the south of the island more than a week ago with minimal impact. The hurricane reached Category 4 status but passed well south of Hawaii in early August. Computers model predict Lane’s centre will pass south of Hawaii next week, but the outer bands still could bring strong winds to the islands if the centre gets close enough.

Large swells will spread westward and northward from the start of next week and conditions could become too dangerous for ocean vessels travelling south of the islands, as well as small craft attempting to navigate the water in the inter-island channels. Surfing may become too rough and dangerous along the south and east facing beaches of the islands by next week. Residents of Hawaii’s Big Island, especially on the southern and eastern part, should expect shower and breezy conditions, but they may spread to the middle and western islands in the String of Pearls by the middle of next week. If Lane tracks closer to the islands than Hurricane Hector then conditions will be more severe and if the hurricane is more spread out, then conditions could get a little worse over the islands, in comparison to Hector.</s>Hawaii may have a hurricane on its horizon next week — though it’s far too early to tell how close it will get.

Hurricane Lane, a devastatingly strong Category 4 storm now, is heading west-northwest over the Pacific, and is forecast to weaken and pass south of the Aloha State around Wednesday.

But the track is uncertain this early, and there’s a chance Lane by Tuesday night could bring winds of at least tropical-storm strength (39 mph and higher) to Hawaii’s Big Island, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says.

Early Saturday, the storm was more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph — the lowest threshold for a Category 4.

The storm could strengthen Saturday and Sunday, but it is expected to weaken to a Category 1 (sustained winds of 74-95 mph) by Tuesday or Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center says.

Six computer forecast models predict Lane’s center will pass south of Hawaii next week, but the outer bands still could bring strong winds to the islands if the center gets close enough.

Lane’s approach comes more than a week after Hawaii watched Hurricane Hector pass well to the south.</s>At 11 a.m. HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 144.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to persist today. Lane is expected to move westward to west-northwestward through Monday night, but at a slightly slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

Lane has not had a distinct eye in satellite imagery since late Saturday afternoon. However, a small warm spot appears to be indicative of an eye trying to form. In addition, a 1253z SSMI microwave pass shows a small eye completely surrounded by deep convection, which suggests that Lane remains rather well organized early this morning. This is despite southwesterly vertical wind shear of near 20 knots according to the latest UW-CIMSS output, while it is close to 10 knots based on the most recent SHIPS guidance.

Lane’s initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep the system moving along the same general track during the next 12 hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge.

The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly, especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15 knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period. Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated beyond day 3.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity forecast errors can be large.

HONOLULU — HI-EMA recommends residents and visitors take the following actions to prepare for any possible hurricane or tropical cyclone:
• Prepare an “emergency kit” of a minimum of 14 days of food, water, and other supplies.
• Talk with family members and develop a clear understanding of what you will do if a hurricane or tropical storm threatens. Prepare an action plan that includes details such as whether your family plans to shelter in place or evacuate.
• Know if your home is in an inundation zone, flood zone, or susceptible to high winds and other hazards. Know if your home is retrofitted with hurricane resistant clips or straps.
• Stay tuned to local media and their websites/applications regarding weather updates.
• Get to know your neighbors and community so you can help each other.
• Walk your property and check for potential flood threats. Clear your gutters and other drainage systems. Remove and secure loose items. Keep your car gas tanks filled.
• Prepare your pets by checking or purchasing a carrier and other preparedness items. A pet carrier is necessary for your pet’s safety if you plan to evacuate to a pet-friendly shelter. Don’t forget 14 days of food and water for your furry family members.
• Set aside an emergency supply of any needed medication and keep a copy of your prescriptions in case you run out of medication after a disaster.
• Visitors should download GoHawaii App and read the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s Travel Safety Brochure at www.travelsmarthawaii.com.</s>Hurricane Lane grew to a Category 4 storm on Saturday, but then weakened Sunday morning to a Category 3 as it moved closer to the Central Pacific basin, the National Hurricane Center said. As of 11 a.m. ET Sunday, Lane was located 885 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

The storm's maximum sustained winds are 120 mph, and it's moving west at about 15 mph. Forecasters say Lane is expected to lose power as it continues west-northwest over the next few days.

The current forecast track has it passing south of Hawaii's Big Island, CBS Honolulu affiliate KGMB reports.

There have already been strong storms in the Pacific Ocean in 2018, and water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off San Diego hit a record high this month. While hurricanes are virtually unheard of in California, conditions could potentially raise the threat.

This graph shows the projected path of Hurricane Lane on Sunday, Aug. 19, 2018. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

"It could happen, especially if the ocean temperatures continue to stay in this anomalously warm state," said Art Miller, an oceanographer.

Scientists at the Scripps Pier have been recording historic temperatures in the Pacific Ocean as high as 79.5 degrees. That's about 10 degrees above normal.

Jamie Yuccas contributed to this report.</s>Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

At 5 a.m. today, Lane was about 890 mile east-southeast of Hilo and 1,100 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, traveling west at 15 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii.

Forecasters said that a “large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly east-facing shores of Maui, by this evening,” producing large and dangerous surf by tonight or early Monday.

Lane has intensified quickly since forming in the East Pacific last week. It entered the Central Pacific Saturday as a Category 4 hurricane but has since weakened slightly. That weakening is expected to continue over the next five days, forecaster said. However, Lane will likely remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles, the hurricane center said early this morning.

“Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large.”

The five-day forecast calls for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, by Friday when it is expected to be hundreds of miles southwest of Oahu, according to the hurricane center.</s>As of Sunday morning, Lane was located about 885 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii</s>Hurricane Lane will pass south of Hawaii’s Big Island next week as it tracks across the Pacific Ocean. The storm developed into a Category 4 hurricane on Saturday as it moved closer to the Central Pacific basin, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. As of 11pm HST (10am BST) on Saturday, the storm was 1,560km east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island and was travelling west-northwest over the Pacific. The track of Hurricane Lane is uncertain, but the current forecast is it will pass about 200 miles south of the southernmost tip of the Big Island at the midweek point next week.

The storm has current maximum-sustained winds of 125mph but it is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm by Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 74-95mph. This could bring winds of at least tropical storm strength (39mph and higher) to Hawaii’s Big Island, the NHC said. Lane will still be a hurricane when it passes south of Hawaii. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said: “Based on that track, impacts on at least the Big Island will not be much different than that was experienced with Hector two weeks earlier.

“Lane is likely to maintain major hurricane status for several days.” Hurricane Hector passed to the south of the island more than a week ago with minimal impact. The hurricane reached Category 4 status but passed well south of Hawaii in early August. Computers model predict Lane’s centre will pass south of Hawaii next week, but the outer bands still could bring strong winds to the islands if the centre gets close enough.

Large swells will spread westward and northward from the start of next week and conditions could become too dangerous for ocean vessels travelling south of the islands, as well as small craft attempting to navigate the water in the inter-island channels. Surfing may become too rough and dangerous along the south and east facing beaches of the islands by next week. Residents of Hawaii’s Big Island, especially on the southern and eastern part, should expect shower and breezy conditions, but they may spread to the middle and western islands in the String of Pearls by the middle of next week. If Lane tracks closer to the islands than Hurricane Hector then conditions will be more severe and if the hurricane is more spread out, then conditions could get a little worse over the islands, in comparison to Hector.</s>HAWAII — Hawaii may have a hurricane on its horizon next week — though it’s far too early to tell how close it will get.

Hurricane Lane, a devastatingly strong Category 4 storm now, is heading west-northwest over the Pacific, and is forecast to weaken and pass south of the Aloha State around Wednesday or Thursday.

But the track is uncertain this early, and there’s a chance Lane by Tuesday night could bring winds of at least tropical-storm strength (39 mph and higher) to Hawaii’s Big Island, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says.

Early Saturday, the storm was more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph — the lowest threshold for a Category 4.

The storm is expected to weaken to a Category 1 (sustained winds of 74-95 mph) by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center says.

Six computer forecast models predict Lane’s center will pass south of Hawaii next week, but the outer bands still could bring strong winds to the islands if the center gets close enough.

Lane’s approach comes more than a week after Hawaii watched Hurricane Hector pass well to the south.
Hurricane Lane weakens to a Category 3 storm and is expected to pass south of Hawaii throughout the next few days.