Damage from the storms cost the U.S. $250 billion. The 2017 was the fifth-most active hurricane season on record.

Damage from the storms cost the U.S. $250 billion. The 2017 was the fifth-most active hurricane season on record.

Hurricane Maria as a Category 5 storm. It made landfall on Puerto Rico as a Category 4. (Source: NOAA)

Hurricane Maria as a Category 5 storm. It made landfall on Puerto Rico as a Category 4. (Source: NOAA)

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria & Nate were so destructive their names are getting retired

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria & Nate were so destructive their names are getting retired

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30, with a spike in activity in early to mid-September

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30, with a spike in activity in early to mid-September

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30, with a spike in activity in early to mid-September. (Source: WSVN/KPRC/KTRK/WBZ/WCVB/NOAA/CNN)

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30, with a spike in activity in early to mid-September. (Source: WSVN/KPRC/KTRK/WBZ/WCVB/NOAA/CNN)

What you need to know about travel during hurricane season

What you need to know about travel during hurricane season

Forecasters say the Central Pacific stands could see anywhere from three to five hurricanes this year.

Forecasters say the Central Pacific stands could see anywhere from three to five hurricanes this year.

(AP Photo/P. Solomon Banda, File). File - In this Oct. 19, 2014, file photo, Maryanne Fisher, of League City, Texas, stands in the rain on Waikiki Beach with Diamond Head in the background in Honolulu as Hurricane Ana brought a steady rain to the Hawai...

(AP Photo/P. Solomon Banda, File). File - In this Oct. 19, 2014, file photo, Maryanne Fisher, of League City, Texas, stands in the rain on Waikiki Beach with Diamond Head in the background in Honolulu as Hurricane Ana brought a steady rain to the Hawai...

A tropical disturbance may develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. (Source: NHC)

(RNN) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their predictions for the 2018 Hurricane season Thursday as they eye the northern Gulf Coast, which could experience its first tropical system of the season in the next five days, the National Hurricane Center said.

NOAA predicted an above average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season - which delivered with 17 named storms. It was the seventh-most active season since records began in 1851, NOAA said.

The northern Gulf Coast could experience its first tropical system of the season in the next five days, the National Hurricane Center said.

A system near the Yucatan peninsula has a 80-percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone or subtropical system in the next five days as environmental conditions become more conducive for development.

If the steady bands of rain develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, its name will be Alberto. However, the storm will present more of a rain threat than a wind threat.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but a tropical storm can form before then, just as it did before the past three hurricane seasons.

Atmospheric scientist Michael Lowry said the "A" storm has formed as early as January and as late as August.

Nearly all the damage came from three major hurricanes – Harvey, Irma and Maria.

Harvey battered the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Central America. It dumped catastrophic rainfall on the Houston area, causing $125 billion in damage.

Hurricanes Irma and Maria whipped the Caribbean, while Irma cut a path of destruction from St. Martin into Florida.

Maria devastated Puerto Rico and Dominica. It’s considered among worst natural disasters to hit the islands. Large swaths of Puerto Rico are still without power.</s>Last year was particularly devastating, with Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria wreaking deadly havoc throughout the Caribbean and Atlantic region. They were among 17 storms large enough to merit their own names which tore through the Atlantic basin, including 10 hurricanes.

The 2018 season, which begins June 1, could bring 10 to 16 named storms, including tropical storms and hurricanes, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

There is a 75 percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be "near-or above-normal," the agency said.

"We are not expecting this season to be one of the most active on record," Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said at a press conference.

But that should not be a cause for complacency, he said.

"We are expecting a near average season which means a lot of storms swarming in the Atlantic," he added.

"This is the time to start getting prepared."

Fewer storms are expected this year partly because of "the possibility of a weak El Nino developing," which could reduce the number of storms later in the season, NOAA said.

Also, "near-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea" have an effect on the number of hurricanes.

Just one to four of this season's most powerful storms are expected to become "major hurricanes," meaning Category Three or higher with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 kilometers per hour).

Harvey, which drenched Texas, cost $125 billion and was the second-most expensive hurricane in US history, after 2005's Katrina which cost $161 billion.

Tallied together, 16 major weather disasters in the United States, including hurricanes, cost the US $306.2 billion in 2017, breaking the previous cost record of $214.8 billion in 2005, said NOAA.

The NOAA predictions relate to how many storms are expected to form, but do not make any forecasts about landfall.

Hurricanes Irma and Maria also spread a wide path of destruction last year.

Irma reached Category 5 and was the strongest storm on record in the open Atlantic. It devastated the islands of Barbuda, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy, and pummeled the Florida Keys.

Maria, which made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 storm in September, is blamed for causing the island's worst natural disaster in modern memory.

Eight months later, power has yet to be fully restored in the US island territory, and the death toll remains unclear.

NOAA will update its predictions in August, just before the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Ways to get prepared include stocking up on a few days' worth of food and water, and making a plan in case an evacuation is ordered, experts say.

People should also put together a kit that includes medical supplies, flashlights, batteries, cash, important identification documents, and snacks.

Explore further: Expect above-average Atlantic hurricane season, US forecasters say</s>(CNN) The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be "near- or above-normal" -- though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms -- including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricaneswith Category 3 strength or higher -- are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted

Last year's season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

"The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts," US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year's storms might strike.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now "ENSO-neutral conditions" -- meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present -- according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season," Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, "it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season," Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, "We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range."

2018 season may get an early start

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 80% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.</s>MIAMI (AP) — U.S. government forecasters said Thursday that they expect an active Atlantic hurricane season — an announcement that came as odds increased that the first tropical weather system of the year was forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 10 to 16 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. One to four hurricanes could be “major” with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 kph).

If that forecast holds, it would make for a near-normal or above-normal season. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“There are no strong climate signals saying it’s going to be extremely active, like last year, or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

In the short term, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday a mass of low pressure in the western Caribbean was becoming better defined and likely would become a subtropical or tropical depression by late Saturday.

The system currently off the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula was expected to move northward. Heavy rains were likely across western Cuba, much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In the United States, the downpours could dampen Memorial Day, the unofficial start of the tourist season.

Florida’s governor has directed state authorities to prepare flood response resources to help residents in the event of torrential rains.

Forecasters said they still expect this year to see the kind of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

If an El Nino develops later this summer, it could suppress storm development during the season’s peak months from August through October. El Nino is the natural warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide and tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Warm waters feed a hurricane’s strength, while strong wind shear can pull it apart. If El Nino does not develop and water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea warm up, that could fuel more storm development, said Bell, who was speaking at NOAA’s agency’s aircraft operations center in Lakeland, Florida. That facility is the base for NOAA’s “hurricane hunter” aircraft that fly into storms to collect data used in storm forecasts.

NOAA predicted that 2017 would be an above-average season, and it certainly was: A trio of devastating hurricanes — Harvey, Irma and Maria — ravaged Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and many Caribbean islands. Overall, last year saw 17 named storms, including 10 hurricanes.

Officials warned all coastal residents not to wait to make evacuation plans or preparations for protecting their homes and businesses.

“When you are predicting an active season, that’s when you have more storms forming in the tropical Atlantic, and those storms tend to track farther west,” Bell said. “That’s why the Caribbean and the U.S. coast are more at risk.”

Follow @WJZ on Twitter and like WJZ-TV | CBS Baltimore on Facebook</s>iStock/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) — Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday released their forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a near-normal or above-normal season.

The forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

Of those named storms, the forecasters predict five to nine could become hurricanes, including one to four major ones.

Hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or higher, and major hurricanes are considered to be at least Category 3.

An average hurricane season brings 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes.

Hurricane season is from June 1 to Nov. 30. Peak hurricane season is from mid-August through mid-October, and the peak date for hurricane season on average is Sept. 10. Hurricanes, however, can occur year-round.

NOAA will update this year’s outlook in early August, just before peak season.

A group of thunderstorms will feed off the warmth and moisture of the ocean. Air then rises to form more storms and is replaced constantly by the surrounding air.

Below all this air rising, low pressure develops.

The storm will keep growing as long as it has three key ingredients: water temperatures at or above 79 degrees, open water and high pressure above the storm.

The combination of high wind speeds inside the storm, the storm’s forward motion and the storm surge can lead to a disastrous hurricane.

What are the hurricane categories?

Category 1: Winds from 74 to 95 mph, which can damage homes, trees and power lines.

Category 2: Winds reaching 96 to 110 mph. These extremely dangerous winds can uproot big trees, cause serious damage to homes and lead to power outages that last several days to weeks.

Category 3: With winds from 111 to 129 mph, Category 3 is considered a major hurricane. Devastating damage can occur, and electricity and water might be unavailable for several weeks.

Category 4: With winds from 130 to 156, Category 4 hurricanes bring catastrophic damage to homes, trees and power lines, and can make areas unlivable.

Category 5: This is the highest category for hurricanes, with winds reaching 157 mph or higher. These hurricanes cause catastrophic damage by completely destroying buildings and houses, and can make areas completely unlivable.

Hurricane Harvey pummeled Houston in August, followed by Hurricane Irma in the Caribbean and Florida in September — both of which left behind severe flooding that destroyed and damaged homes and businesses.

Before the Caribbean could recover from Irma, Hurricane Maria tore through just two weeks later, devastating Puerto Rico as a Category 4 storm.

Puerto Rico still hasn’t recovered from Maria. The storm caused massive power outages and destruction to homes, hospitals and water treatment plants.

The current death toll from Maria, according to the Puerto Rican government, is 64, but skepticism has lingered, with some Puerto Ricans and its officials believing the number is much higher.

As of Tuesday, 99 percent of energy customers had access to electricity in Puerto Rico, leaving roughly 14,500 customers still without power.</s>LAKELAND, Fla. -- We'll get through this, together: NOAA forecasters predict 10-16 named tropical systems this upcoming hurricane season.

This is considered a near or above-average seasonal forecast, and the time is now for people along the U.S. coastline to prepare, NOAA says. It is important to note, however, the number of storms does not mean each one will make landfall.

All it takes is one land-falling storm to create significant damage. The year 1992, for example, had just four hurricanes and one was particularly devastating: Hurricane Andrew.

More: Download the 10News app for breaking news and weather alerts

Hurricane preparedness: Check your supplies, evacuation zone and more

NOAA has released its outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a near or slightly above normal season with 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 1-4 major hurricanes.

NOAA forecasts of those 10-16 storms -- which are tropical storm strength with 39 mph winds or greater -- five to nine could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater.

And of those, one to four could be major hurricanes. Those are ranked on the Saffir-Simpson Scale from Category 3-5, with winds of at least 111 mph.

An average season produces 12 named storms, with six of those hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Already before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center and 10Weather meteorologists are keeping watch on a Caribbean disturbance churning its way toward the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters expect it to become the first named storm of the year, which would be called Alberto.

"We're not expecting this season to be one of the most active on record," said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "There's no strong climate signal saying it's going to be extremely active like last year or extremely weak.

"We're expecting a near-average season, which means a lot of storms forming in the Atlantic, which again means this is time to start getting prepared."

This is the 2018 list of Atlantic hurricane names.

►Make it easy to keep up-to-date with more stories like this. Download the 10News app now.

Have a news tip? Email desk@wtsp.com, or visit our Facebook page or Twitter feed.</s>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

In its forecast released today, the NOAA says 10 to 16 named storms are expected, up to nine will be hurricanes, and up to four that will become Category Three or higher storms.

Hurricane season officially starts June 1st, but it may get an early start.

The National Hurricane Center is again increasing the odds that a system in the Caribbean Sea will become a tropical depression as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters now say there’s a 80-percent chance of that happening.

The post NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season appeared first on 850 WFTL.</s>This year’s hurricane season is going to be strong and slightly above the average, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced in its 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 75% chance that the 2018 hurricane season will be mostly normal, or a little stronger.

Here’s what we know about the 2018 hurricane season predictions:

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30 — though it usually peaks between August and September.

The official start date for hurricane season hasn’t seemed to matter much in recent years. In fact, there was at least one named storm prior to June 1 four times in the last six years, according to The Weather Channel.

What are the 2018 hurricane season predictions?

The NOAA said there’s a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms forming this year. Of those, five to nine of the storms will form into hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or above. One to four of the storms could turn into major hurricanes, reaching above a category 3, with winds at 111 miles per hour or higher.

The rate hovers around the average hurricane rate, according to the NOAA. Forecasters said in an average season, there are about 12 named storms, of which six turn into hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

How bad was hurricane season in 2017?

The 2017 hurricane season saw 12 named storms devastate several areas throughout the U.S. More than 100 people died in the storms last year, making it the 17th deadliest hurricane season since 1990.

By the end of the 2017 hurricane season, the storms had caused an estimated $200 billion in damage, according to the NOAA.

Among the most devastating major storms were Hurricanes Harvey, Maria and Irma. Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc in southeast Texas last August, flooding countless homes and causing multiple deaths in its first days. The storm left at least 300,000 people without power with rain reaching up to nearly 50 inches.

Shortly after Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston and surrounding areas in Texas, Hurricane Irma hit the Caribbean, battering the islands of Antigua and Barbuda, The British Virgin Islands and St. Martin. The storm was quickly followed by Hurricane Jose, which brought even more destruction to the area.

The islands had barely any time to recover before Hurricane Maria blew threw in September, causing massive destruction to Puerto Rico. Millions of people were left without power, which came back slowly over the next three months. The death toll, initially reported to be 64, is thought to be higher than official counts. According to independent reviews, the actual death toll in Puerto Rico exceeded 1,000 people.</s>Last year featured the most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2005, and some forecasters believe 2018 could end up the third straight above-average season.

These predictions rely on expected atmospheric and oceanic conditions throughout the next several months, so they are certainly subject to change. However, recent trends, including the potential onset of El Niño later in the year, could derail the active forecast.

The 2017 season was packed with powerful hurricanes, including four that reached Category 4 or 5 status – the highest ratings on the Saffir-Simpson scale. One of these storms, Harvey, jolted the oil and energy markets as its Texas landfall took an estimated 23 percent of U.S. refining capacity offline at one point.

Harvey also stalled the transport of grains and other commodities to southeast Texas ports as well as to Mexico since the storm left rail lines inundated with flood waters. Additionally, the deluge displaced cattle and damaged cotton fields in the area.

Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, peaking on Sept. 10, though storms can occur outside of this window. This year, there are already signs of early activity, though this is not necessarily indicative of things to come.

As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center saw a 40 percent chance that an area of storms off the east coast of Belize would form into a tropical cyclone within five days, with likely movement into the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. agency had been monitoring another system in the Gulf early last week that also had potential, albeit slim.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release its first official outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

SUPPORTING CAST

 Various commercial and academic weather groups have forecasted this year’s Atlantic season to be at least average with a strong lean toward above-average. These outlooks take several things into account such as Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures, pressure and wind patterns, and large-scale climate indicators such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

But there may be more factors working against hurricane activity than were present last year.

Three main ingredients must come together for hurricane formation: warm sea surface temperatures, minimal to no wind shear, and an area of organized, long-lasting thunderstorms.

Wind shear characterizes how wind speed and direction change with height. Strong thunderstorms, and thus hurricanes, rely on strong vertical motion in the atmosphere. Too much wind shear prevents the vertical development of the storms, reducing their intensity.

Atlantic hurricanes are more likely in the presence of La Niña, the cold phase of the ENSO cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña tends to decrease the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The last several months featured the strongest La Niña cycle observed in six years, though it has since faded. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center placed a near 50 percent chance that the warm ENSO cycle, El Niño, would emerge by the 2018-19 Northern Hemispheric winter.

The U.S. agency also indicated that ENSO-neutral conditions are favored for the next four to six months. This is more supportive to hurricane development than the appearance of El Niño would be, so the ENSO tendency will be very important to watch over the next couple of months.

Since 1950, only one distinctly above-average Atlantic hurricane season (2004) has been observed while El Niño conditions dominated during the peak of the season.

The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, or AMO, may also play a role. This index, which deals with sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean, has mostly been in a positive phase for the last 20 years. This tends to favor hurricanes.

But recently, the AMO index has crossed into negative territory, and this could suppress hurricane development – and spoil early forecasts – if the trend continues.

Atlantic Basin hurricanes generally form as a wave off the west coast of Africa, meaning that moisture anomalies in that region play a big part in creating the necessary instability. The West African monsoon has been more active than usual as of late, which is conducive to thunderstorm development.

However, current temperature variability across the Indian Ocean would also indicate better chances of dry air infiltration in the tropics, which could limit the onset of activity in the Atlantic Ocean if this temperature pattern holds.

THREE IN A ROW?

 In an average season, the Atlantic Basin will experience 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. In 2017, there were 17 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.

The worst of 2017’s storms were Harvey, Irma and Maria, causing devastation all over the basin including Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and many Caribbean islands. The World Meteorological Organization retired these three names plus Nate from future use due to their destruction and associated loss of life.

With Harvey and Irma, last year also marked the first time that two Atlantic hurricanes of Category 4 strength or greater made U.S. landfall in the same season. Storms of this intensity pack sustained winds up to 156 miles per hour (251 km/hour).

The 2016 season was also above average, but nowhere near the intensity of last year. The worst storm was Hurricane Matthew, which made landfall in the Carolinas in early October. Matthew significantly reduced hog slaughter and up to 5 million poultry birds may have perished in the resulting floods.

The 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons were relatively inactive by comparison.

 Source: Reuters (Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)</s>(CNN) — The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be “near- or above-normal” — though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms — including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes with Category 3 strength or higher — are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted.

Last year’s season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

“The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year’s storms might strike.

Harvey, Irma and Maria last year took aim, respectively, at the Houston area, Florida and Puerto Rico. They put a dramatic end to a 12-year period with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States and ranked among the top five costliest hurricanes in history.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now “ENSO-neutral conditions” — meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present — according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season,” Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, “it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season,” Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, “We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range.”

2018 season may get an early start

For now — a week ahead of the 2018 season’s official start — the hurricane center is already monitoring the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 90% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily.

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.

Colorado State University, among the most well-regarded forecasting institutions, has predicted 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. It will update its forecast, issued last month, on May 31.

The Weather Company predicts slightly less activity than Colorado State. It forecasts a season that’s near average, with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Meantime, North Carolina State University researchers expect 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 11 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States predicts a near- or above-average hurricane season for 2018.