VIENTIANE: US President Barack Obama warned Beijing Thursday it could not ignore a tribunal’s ruling rejecting its sweeping claims to the South China Sea, driving tensions higher in a territorial row that threatens regional security.

The dispute has raised fears of military confrontation between the world’s superpowers, with China determined to cement control of the strategically vital waters despite a July verdict that its claims have no legal basis.

“The landmark arbitration ruling in July, which is binding, helped to clarify maritime rights in the region,” Obama told Southeast Asian leaders at a summit in Laos.

“I recognize this raises tensions but I also look forward to discussing how we can constructively move forward together to lower tensions and promote diplomacy and stability.”

The verdict by an international tribunal in The Hague said China’s claims to most of the waters—through which $5 trillion in global shipping trade passes annually—had no legal basis.

It also said that a massive burst of artificial island-building activity undertaken by China in recent years in a bid to bolster its claims was illegal.

China angrily vowed to ignore the ruling, describing it as “waste paper”, even though it had legal force through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Obama’s emphasis on the ruling being “binding” will undoubtedly attract a strong reaction from China, which has argued the United States has no role to play in the dispute.

Other claimants in the sea are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei—all part of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc meeting in Laos— plus Taiwan.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is also in Laos this week, with ASEAN hosting a series of regional meetings, and gathered with Obama later Thursday at an 18-nation East Asia summit.

ASEAN leaders released a statement on Wednesday saying they were “seriously concerned” over recent developments in the sea.

But intensive Chinese lobbying helped to ensure there was no mention of the July ruling in the ASEAN statement.

The East Asia statement to be released later Thursday was also going to give a muted response, according to a draft obtained by Agence France-Presse.

ASEAN works by consensus, and China has successfully pressured Cambodia and Laos in recent years to ensure the bloc does not gang together to heavily pressure Beijing.

However the Philippines released photos on Wednesday it said showed renewed Chinese island-building activity, in a deliberate move to throw the issue into the spotlight.

The Chinese ships were at Scarborough Shoal, a small fishing ground within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone that China took control of in 2012.

If China did build an island at the shoal, it could lead to a military outpost just 230 kilometers (140 miles) from the main Philippine island, where US forces are stationed.

It would also be a major step in China’s quest to control the sea, giving it the ability to enforce an air defense identification zone.

Obama warned Chinese President Xi Jinping in March not to build at the shoal.

Chinese island-building in the Spratlys archipelago—another strategically important location—has already triggered various US military shows of strength.

Security analysts have said Chinese island-building at Scarborough Shoal could trigger a military confrontation.

China insisted repeatedly this week it was not undertaking any island-building activities at the shoal, and on Thursday repeated its rejection of the tribunal ruling.

“We hope the US can take an objective and just attitude with respect to South China Sea issues,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in Beijing.

A barrage of other security threats were also in focus in Laos on Thursday, including North Korea’s nuclear ambitions following its latest missile tests.

Obama warned on Monday that Kim Jong-Un’s regime was dooming itself to further isolation, and the UN Security Council condemned the tests.

A spectacular sideshow in Laos this week has been a spat between Obama and the acid-tongued Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose nations are longtime allies.

Duterte launched a tirade against Obama on Monday after being told the US president planned to raise concerns about a war on crime in the Philippines that has claimed 3,000 lives in just over two months.

“Son of a whore, I will curse you in that forum,” Duterte told reporters.

Obama cancelled a meeting with Duterte scheduled for Tuesday because of the outburst. AFP</s>With a successful Group of 20 summit under its belt and the run-up to November’s presidential election occupying Washington, Beijing appears to be testing the waters for a potential move on a hotly disputed site in the South China Sea that would further extend its grip there — and significantly ratchet up tensions in the region.

China has in recent days and weeks ramped up its activity around the Scarborough Shoal, with Philippines’ Defense Ministry releasing pictures Wednesday showing what it said were Chinese boats near the chain of rocks and reefs just 230 km (140 miles) from the Philippine coast. The release came just hours before Southeast Asian nations were due to meet China’s premier at a summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Laos.

The moves have stoked fears in Manila that Beijing could be laying the groundwork for an eventual land-reclamation project at the contentious collection of rocky outcroppings that barely jut above water at high tide.

China’s focus in the contentious waters has shifted since the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a ruling in July that invalidated its claims to the South China Sea, a decision Beijing has lambasted as “waste paper.”

Starting in 2014, China began employing an army of dredging vessels to create seven man-made islands in the South China Sea’s Spratly chain, building military-grade airstrips, radar facilities and hangers for Chinese fighter jets on a number of the reclaimed islets, including Mischief Reef, located 250 km west of the Philippines’ Palawan Island.

It has also beefed-up the defense capabilities on Woody Island, its main outpost in the Paracel archipelago further west, deploying surface-to-air missiles and fighter jets there in February.

But experts say Scarborough Shoal would be the crowning jewel in a bid to solidify an iron grip over the South China Sea.

Building at Scarborough would create a large “strategic triangle” comprising Woody Island and its Spratly outposts, giving Beijing the ability to police an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea.

The impact of such a strategic triangle would be tremendous for both the United States’ and Japan’s strategic planning, some experts say, and could be a game-changer in regional power relations.

“If China is successful in militarizing the Scarborough Shoal, this would represent a significant change in the status quo,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a security and foreign affairs expert with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA in Washington.

“Should China build up the shoal with radars, missiles and an airstrip, it would enhance China’s anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities as well as improve its power-projection capabilities in the region, particularly vis-a-vis the U.S.”

Hornung said this matters because a new base that forms a strategic triangle with its facilities and runways in the Paracels and Spratlys would bring the entire region under Chinese radar, missile and air coverage — effectively creating a “Chinese lake.”

“This would enable China to control the sea lines of communication, monitor foreign naval and air activities, enforce a South China Sea air defense identification zone and could work to blunt America’s freedom of action in times of conflict.

Hornung also said Japan, like the U.S. and others, is concerned about this because this gives China a significant edge not just in a wartime situation, but in peacetime as well, and will enable it to better monitor what the U.S. and its allies are doing in the region.

China was prepared to initiate land-reclamation at Scarborough in March, according to a Financial Times report citing current and former U.S. officials, but backed down after U.S. President Barack Obama warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping of serious consequences if it began dredging work there.

Another report, this one coming just last month by the South China Morning Post, reignited concern over the issue. It quoted an unidentified source familiar with the Scarborough matter as saying that reclamation work there would not start until after the Group of 20 summit, which wrapped up Monday in the Chinese host city of Hangzhou, but potentially before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3.

“U.S. President Barack Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office. That might make him busy and he might not have time to take care of regional security issues,” the source was quoted as saying.

The Hong Kong-based daily had earlier reported in late April that Chinese work at the shoal would begin within the year.

The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, first said last week that it had spotted Chinese barges and numerous other vessels — including Chinese coast guard ships — at Scarborough. It said these sightings could presage a move to turn the shoal into another man-made island.

State Department spokesperson Katina Adams told The Japan Times this week that it was aware of reports that the Philippines has raised concerns about the number of Chinese vessels near Scarborough.

“We continue to closely monitor the situation around Scarborough Reef, and we encourage all sides to exercise restraint and take practical steps to lower tensions,” Adams said.

Jay Batongbacal, who heads the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the state-run University of the Philippines, said the vessels seen last week could allow China to make a lightning advance on Scarborough.

“Rather than barges as widely reported, they do appear to be at least one dredging ship and a cable-laying ship,” Batongbacal told The Japan Times. “These could be for preparatory work. the dredger could be used to create deeper channels into/within the reef for subsequent construction activities. The cable laying ship could be intended to lay communications cables that would be more secure than satellite/radio links.

“Both could allow sudden massive reclamation in a single burst of activity, as soon as the weather permits,” he said, adding that a cable-laying ship could also be used to lay a series of listening devices across the seafloor all the way up to the mainland that would be effective against submarines and surface ships.

Regional security experts also said some of the vessels spotted by Manila were likely part of China’s “maritime militia,” or “little blue men,” the sea equivalent of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s “little green men” that were deployed during Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

The nominally civilian maritime militia — which China also used last month to swarm the waters near the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea — is one of Beijing’s most important tools. Often masked as innocuous fishing vessels, the militia is employed in “gray zone” activities as a tool of asymmetric warfare, offering major rewards while threatening the U.S., Japan and other potential opponents with major risks if engaged, observers say.

“It is very likely that at least a portion of these vessels (near Scarborough) are maritime militia, given that they do not seem to be engaged on purely private economic activities,” said Alex Calvo a guest professor at Nagoya University focusing on security issues. He said the vessels in the area of Scarborough could either be manned by militia members and formally affiliated with the organization or simply one with all or some crew belonging to it, perhaps sporting high-tech equipment provided by Chinese authorities.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that there had been no change to the situation around Scarborough.

“I can tell you that there has not been any change to the Huangyan Island situation. China has also not taken new actions,” spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing in Beijing, using China’s name for the shoal.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was set to ask Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at Wednesday’s summit whether the vessels were on another island-making mission on the Scarborough, just a few hundred kilometers from Philippine military bases hosting U.S. troops.

Bonnie Glaser, a regional security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, said the distance from Scarborough to the bases was a top concern for the U.S. and the Philippines. Manila is a U.S. treaty ally and a deal between the two countries allowing an increased American military presence in the former U.S. colony was greenlighted in January.

“I think the main concern is the proximity of Scarborough Shoal to the Philippines main island,” Glaser said. “The U.S. will be rotating forces out of bases in the Philippines and a Chinese military outpost on Scarborough will pose a threat to these assets.”

According to retired U.S. Marine Col. Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo, China would effectively have a permanent presence there under such a scenario.

“This is a huge military advantage,” Newsham said. “U.S. ships and aircraft may be able to operate in and transit the South China Sea, but it is an ephemeral presence — here today, gone tomorrow. The Chinese will be there regardless — and that is what matters.”

While major Chinese dredging operations in the South China Sea have apparently been halted since the end of last year, a number of observers described a move on Scarborough as seemingly imminent.

“Right now it is still unclear, but I would not really be surprised,” said Nagoya University’s Calvo. “China is indeed ready to cross that ‘red line,’ among other reasons because it is not much of a red line. It is not backed by any explicit threat to use force.”

Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, a vocal defender of Manila’s territorial claims in its dispute with Beijing, offered a more clear-cut view.

“My personal assessment is that China will start the dredging after the G-20 meeting and before the November elections in the U.S.,” Carpio told The Japan Times.

He said Beijing has long planned to militarize the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal so as to enforce its so-called “nine-dash line” claim to most of the South China Sea.

“The Chinese have built islands on all the seven reefs that China occupies in the Spratlys,” Carpio said. “There is no reason why Scarborough Shoal, strategically located near the Bashi Channel — the shortest outlet of China’s Hainan-based nuclear missile submarines to the Pacific Ocean, will be an exception.”

Abhijit Singh, head of the Maritime Policy Initiative Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, said for the Chinese, the only issue was the timing.

“My sense is that it may not happen in the next few weeks, but at an opportune moment in days following, when China can justify its reclamation by pointing to a U.S. provocation,” Singh said. “But I have little doubt that the Chinese will ultimately build a structure on Scarborough, because it’s the last link in the regional maritime strategy.”

With ramped-up military activity in the waters recently, including U.S. “freedom of navigation” patrols near Chinese-held islands and regular Chinese air force “combat patrols” in the area, the potential for an unintended clash — something that could be seen as an “opportune moment” — is high.

But regardless of any Chinese move on Scarborough, the mere psychological effects of the issue could also prove destabilizing.

“The psychological threat of China dominating such a strategic area has many worried that China will control the South China Sea, and all the trade that transits through it,” said Sasakawa’s Hornung. “This, in turn, has led regional countries like Japan to look with concerned eyes to the U.S. should the dredging start.

To date, the U.S. has opposed Chinese actions in the South China Sea. But beyond the occasional patrol or limited efforts to bolster regional nations maritime capabilities, the U.S. response has essentially been limited to diplomatic protests and the building of a coalition opposed to Chinese actions.

“Because the Philippines is a treaty ally of the U.S., if China can act freely with no U.S. response beyond a diplomatic protest, its credibility as an ally will be under severe stress,” said Hornung. “In particular, a non-U.S. response would send shock waves through Tokyo, given that concerns over U.S. commitment to the defense of the Senkaku Islands continues to lurk among officialdom in Tokyo.”

“If China starts to dredge, it behooves the U.S. to act firmly, knowing that its response will be under close scrutiny from its regional allies.”</s>A summit of Southeast Asian countries and world powers is expected to let China off with a muted reprimand over its expansionist activities in the disputed South China Sea, according to a draft of their joint statement to be released Thursday.

The mild language in the statement, despite growing frustrations in the region over China’s claims, is even more striking given that the summit included President Barack Obama, whose administration has repeatedly expressed concern over Beijing’s actions in the resource-rich sea. The lukewarm rebuke is a reflection of Beijing’s diplomatic, economic and military clout within the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which spearheaded the summit Thursday with the United States, China, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Together, they are meeting in the East Asia Summit in the Laotian capital.

“We reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace, stability and security and freedom of navigation in and over-flight in the South China Sea,” said the draft of the declaration. The six-page, 28-point declaration devoted one paragraph to the South China Sea.

“Several Leaders remained seriously concerned over recent developments in the South China Sea … We stressed the importance for the parties concerned to resolve their disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international laws,” it said.

The statement made no mention of the land reclamation activities by China, which has turned shoals and coral reefs into seven man-made islands with and built airstrips capable of handling military aircraft on three of them. ASEAN leaders at their earlier summit on Tuesday expressed concern over China’s island-building.

The ASEAN leaders had also said that their summit “took note of the concerns expressed by some leaders on the land reclamations and escalation of activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region.”

The use of the phrase “some leaders” in the two statements underscores the fundamental problem ASEAN and the wider East Asia Summit has in dealing with China — not all its members are willing to scold Beijing. Cambodia, for example, remains firmly in China’s camp, as is Laos to a large extent, preventing any robust statement from the consensus-bound ASEAN group.

The issue of ownership of territories in the South China Sea has come to dominate ASEAN summits in recent years. China claims virtually the entire sea as its own, citing historical reasons. That has pitted it against the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, all members of ASEAN, which have overlapping claims.

On July 12, an international arbitration tribunal hearing a complaint filed by the Philippines ruled against China, saying its expansive claims were illegal. It also rebuked China for forcibly preventing Filipinos from fishing in their traditional areas.

Beijing has rejected the ruling and continued its activities. The ASEAN statement and the draft East Asia Summit statement made no mention of the tribunal.

On Wednesday, the Philippines released what it says are surveillance pictures of Chinese coast guard ships and barges at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, an apparent attempt to publicize its concerns before ASEAN leaders met with Chinese Premier Li Kequiang in Vientiane.

The Philippines is concerned that China may plan to turn the shoal into another man-made island.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China has not done anything to alter the circumstances surrounding the shoal.

“What I can tell you is that the situation in waters near Huangyan Island remains unchanged and China hasn’t made any new moves,” Hua said in Beijing, using the shoal’s Chinese name. “We should be highly alert against the mischief-making intentions of people who spread such groundless information in such situations.”

New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has taken a more conciliatory approach to China than his predecessor, and has said he would not raise the dispute in an adversarial manner that might upset Beijing.

The U.S. military has also expressed concern over the possibility that China might turn Scarborough into another island, something that would give Beijing’s forces greater control over a swath of the South China Sea used as a passageway to the Taiwan Strait.</s>VIENTIANE: Beijing came under pressure at an Asian summit Wednesday over its “illegal” island building in the South China Sea, after the Philippines produced evidence it said showed fresh construction activity at a flashpoint shoal.

An artificial island at Scarborough Shoal could be a game changer in China’s quest to control the sea and raises the risk of armed confrontation with the United States, according to security analysts.

Beijing this week insisted it had not started building at the shoal—a move that could lead to a military outpost just 230 kilometers (140 miles) from the main Philippine island, where US forces are stationed.

But the Philippines on Wednesday released images it said showed Chinese ships in the area that were capable of dredging sand and other activities required to build an artificial island.

“We have reason to believe that their presence is a precursor to building activities on the shoal,” defense department spokesman Arsenio Andolong told AFP.

“We are continuing our surveillance and monitoring of their presence and activities, which are disturbing.”

China claims nearly all of the sea, through which $5 trillion in shipping trade passes annually, even waters approaching the coasts of the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.

The competing territorial claims have long been a major source of tension in the region, with China using deadly force twice to seize control of islands from Vietnam.

Tensions have escalated sharply in recent years as China has built islands on reefs and islets in the Spratlys archipelago—another strategically important location—that are capable of supporting military operations.

The United States has reacted to that build-up by sailing warships close to the new islands, and sending warplanes over them, deeply angering China.

A UN-backed tribunal ruled in July that China’s claims to most of the sea had no legal basis and its construction of artificial islands in the disputed waters was illegal.

But Beijing vowed to ignore the ruling.

China took control of Scarborough shoal in 2012 after a standoff with the Philippine Navy, and has since deployed large fishing fleets while blocking Filipino fishermen.

Expanding that presence with a military outpost is vital to achieving China’s ambitions of controlling the sea, according to security analysts.

US officials fear a Chinese military airfield at the shoal would enable Beijing to enforce a threatened air defense identification zone in the sea.

An outpost at the shoal would also put Chinese fighter jets and missiles within easy striking distance of US forces stationed in the Philippines.

US President Barack Obama reportedly directly warned his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during a meeting in March not to push ahead with any artificial island building there.

The United States, which is a treaty ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly said it does not want to fight a war over the shoal.

But military skirmishes cannot be ruled out if China does start to build an island, according to security analysts.

“We could witness a physical confrontation between Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino vessels backed up by the US Navy,” Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South Wales, told AFP.

An Obama aide on Wednesday played down the significance of the Philippine photos, telling reporters the United States had not detected any unusual activity at Scarborough Shoal.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte had said he did not want to anger China by highlighting the territorial row at the summit of regional leaders in Laos this week.

But the release of the photos came just a few hours before Duterte and other leaders from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations met China’s Li, in what his spokesman said was a deliberate move.

The Philippines and Singapore, which this year is ASEAN’s lead negotiator with China, raised the dispute during the meeting.

“What was underlined… was the importance of the rule of law and adhering to international bodies,” Duterte’s spokesman, Martin Andanar, told reporters in Vientiane.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also called on China to abide by the tribunal’s ruling, emphasizing in his meeting with ASEAN leaders that the verdict was legally binding.

Obama is also in Laos for the regional meetings, which will conclude on Thursday with an East Asia summit.

But the US president cancelled his planned meeting with Duterte, during which the sea issue was to be discussed, after the volatile Philippine president called him a “son of a whore”. AFP</s>CHINA'S HERE. One of the Chinese ships spotted near Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), September 3, 2016. Photo courtesy Philippine Department of Defense

VIENTIANE, Laos (UPDATED) – Beijing came under pressure at an Asian summit on Wednesday, September 7, over its "illegal" island building in the South China Sea, after the Philippines produced evidence it said showed fresh construction activity at a flashpoint shoal.

An artificial island at Scarborough Shoal could be a game changer in China's quest to control the sea and raises the risk of armed confrontation with the United States, according to security analysts.

Beijing this week insisted it had not started building at the shoal – a move that could lead to a military outpost just 230 kilometers (140 miles) from the main Philippine island, where US forces are stationed.

But the Philippines on Wednesday released images it said showed Chinese ships in the area that were capable of dredging sand and other activities required to build an artificial island.

"We have reason to believe that their presence is a precursor to building activities on the shoal," defense department spokesman Arsenio Andolong told Agence France-Presse.

"We are continuing our surveillance and monitoring of their presence and activities, which are disturbing."

China claims nearly all of the sea, through which $5 trillion in shipping trade passes annually, even waters approaching the coasts of the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.

The competing territorial claims have long been a major source of tension in the region, with China using deadly force twice to seize control of islands from Vietnam.

Illegal island building

A ship of the China Coast Guard near Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), September 3, 2016. Photo courtesy Philippine Department of Defense

Tensions have escalated sharply in recent years as China has built islands on reefs and islets in the Spratlys archipelago – another strategically important location – that are capable of supporting military operations.

The United States has reacted to that build-up by sailing warships close to the new islands, and sending warplanes over them, deeply angering China.

A UN-backed tribunal ruled in July that China's claims to most of the sea had no legal basis and its construction of artificial islands in the disputed waters was illegal.

But Beijing vowed to ignore the ruling.

China took control of Scarborough shoal in 2012 after a standoff with the Philippine Navy, and has since deployed large fishing fleets while blocking Filipino fishermen.

Expanding that presence with a military outpost is vital to achieving China's ambitions of controlling the sea, according to security analysts.

US officials fear a Chinese military airfield at the shoal would enable Beijing to enforce a threatened air defence identification zone in the sea.

An outpost at the shoal would also put Chinese fighter jets and missiles within easy striking distance of US forces stationed in the Philippines.

US President Barack Obama reportedly directly warned his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during a meeting in March not to push ahead with any artificial island building there.

Conflict risk

Another Chinese ship near Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), September 3, 2016. Photo courtesy Philippine Department of Defense

The United States, which is a treaty ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly said it does not want to fight a war over the shoal.

But military skirmishes cannot be ruled out if China does start to build an island, according to security analysts.

"We could witness a physical confrontation between Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino vessels backed up by the US Navy," Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia's University of New South Wales, told AFP.

An Obama aide on Wednesday played down the significance of the Philippine photos, telling reporters the United States had not detected any unusual activity at Scarborough Shoal.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte had said he did not want to anger China by highlighting the territorial row at the summit of regional leaders in Laos this week.

But the release of the photos came just a few hours before Duterte and other leaders from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations met China's Li, in what his spokesman said was a deliberate move.

The Philippines and Singapore, which this year is ASEAN's lead negotiator with China, raised the dispute during the meeting.

"What was underlined... was the importance of the rule of law and adhering to international bodies," Duterte's spokesman, Martin Andanar, told reporters in Vientiane.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also called on China to abide by the tribunal's ruling, emphasising in his meeting with ASEAN leaders that the verdict was legally binding.

Obama is also in Laos for the regional meetings, which will conclude on Thursday with an East Asia summit.

But the US president cancelled his planned meeting with Duterte, during which the sea issue was to be discussed, after the volatile Philippine president called him a "son of a whore." – Rappler.com</s>US President Barack Obama warned Beijing Thursday it could not ignore a tribunal's ruling rejecting its sweeping claims to the South China Sea, driving tensions higher in a territorial row that threatens regional security.

The dispute has raised fears of military confrontation between the world's superpowers, with China determined to cement control of the strategically vital waters despite a July verdict that its claims have no legal basis.

"The landmark arbitration ruling in July, which is binding, helped to clarify maritime rights in the region," Obama told Southeast Asian leaders at a summit in Laos.

"I recognise this raises tensions but I also look forward to discussing how we can constructively move forward together to lower tensions and promote diplomacy and stability."

The verdict by an international tribunal in The Hague said China's claims to most of the waters -- through which $5 trillion in global shipping trade passes annually -- had no legal basis.

It also said that a massive burst of artificial island-building activity undertaken by China in recent years in a bid to bolster its claims was illegal.

China angrily vowed to ignore the ruling, describing it as "waste paper", even though it had legal force through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Obama's emphasis on the ruling being "binding" will undoubtedly attract a strong reaction from China, which has argued the United States has no role to play in the dispute.

Other claimants in the sea are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei -- all part of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc meeting in Laos -- plus Taiwan.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is also in Laos this week, with ASEAN hosting a series of regional meetings, and will meet Obama later Thursday at an 18-nation East Asia summit.

ASEAN leaders released a statement on Wednesday saying they were "seriously concerned" over recent developments in the sea.

But intensive Chinese lobbying helped to ensure there was no mention of the July ruling in the ASEAN statement.

ASEAN works by consensus, and China has successfully pressured Cambodia and Laos in recent years to ensure the bloc does not gang together to heavily pressure Beijing.

However the Philippines released photos on Wednesday it said showed renewed Chinese island-building activity, in a deliberate move to throw the issue into the spotlight.

The Chinese ships were at Scarborough Shoal, a small fishing ground within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone that China took control of in 2012.

If China did build an island at the shoal, it could lead to a military outpost just 230 kilometres (140 miles) from the main Philippine island, where US forces are stationed.

It would also be a major step in China's quest to control the sea, giving it the ability to enforce an air defence identification zone across the waters.

Obama warned Chinese President Xi Jinping in March not to build at the shoal.

Chinese island-building in the Spratlys archipelago -- another strategically important location -- has already triggered various US military shows of strength.

The United States has sent warships close to the new islands, and warplanes over them, deeply angering China.

Security analysts have said Chinese island-building at Scarborough Shoal could trigger a military confrontation.

China insisted repeatedly this week it was not undertaking any island-building activities at the shoal.

A barrage of other security threats were also in focus in Laos on Thursday, including North Korea's nuclear ambitions following its latest missile tests.

Obama warned on Monday that Kim Jong-Un's regime was dooming itself to further isolation, and the UN Security Council condemned the tests.

But North Korea responded by threatening on Wednesday to take "further significant measures".

A spectacular sideshow in Laos this week has been a spat between Obama and the acid-tongued Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose nations are longtime allies.

Duterte launched a tirade against Obama on Monday after being told the US president planned to raise concerns about a war on crime in the Philippines that has claimed 3,000 lives in just over two months.

"You must be respectful. Do not just throw away questions and statements. Son of a whore, I will curse you in that forum," Duterte told reporters.

Obama cancelled a meeting with Duterte scheduled for Tuesday because of the outburst.

They met briefly on Wednesday night before a leaders' dinner, but only exchanged "pleasantries", according to the White House.</s>With a successful Group of 20 summit under its belt and the run-up to November’s presidential election occupying Washington, Beijing appears to be testing the waters for a potential move on a hotly disputed site in the South China Sea that would further extend its grip there — and significantly ratchet up tensions in the region.

China has in recent days and weeks ramped up its activity around the Scarborough Shoal, with Philippines’ Defense Ministry releasing pictures Wednesday showing what it said were Chinese boats near the chain of rocks and reefs just 230 km (140 miles) from the Philippine coast. The release came just hours before Southeast Asian nations were due to meet China’s premier at a summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Laos.

The moves have stoked fears in Manila that Beijing could be laying the groundwork for an eventual land-reclamation project at the contentious collection of rocky outcroppings that barely jut above water at high tide.

China’s focus in the contentious waters has shifted since the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a ruling in July that invalidated its claims to the South China Sea, a decision Beijing has lambasted as “waste paper.”

Starting in 2014, China began employing an army of dredging vessels to create seven man-made islands in the South China Sea’s Spratly chain, building military-grade airstrips, radar facilities and hangers for Chinese fighter jets on a number of the reclaimed islets, including Mischief Reef, located 250 km west of the Philippines’ Palawan Island.

It has also beefed-up the defense capabilities on Woody Island, its main outpost in the Paracel archipelago further west, deploying surface-to-air missiles and fighter jets there in February.

But experts say Scarborough Shoal would be the crowning jewel in a bid to solidify an iron grip over the South China Sea.

Building at Scarborough would create a large “strategic triangle” comprising Woody Island and its Spratly outposts, giving Beijing the ability to police an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea.

The impact of such a strategic triangle would be tremendous for both the United States’ and Japan’s strategic planning, some experts say, and could be a game-changer in regional power relations.

“If China is successful in militarizing the Scarborough Shoal, this would represent a significant change in the status quo,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a security and foreign affairs expert with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA in Washington.

“Should China build up the shoal with radars, missiles and an airstrip, it would enhance China’s anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities as well as improve its power-projection capabilities in the region, particularly vis-a-vis the U.S.”

Hornung said this matters because a new base that forms a strategic triangle with its facilities and runways in the Paracels and Spratlys would bring the entire region under Chinese radar, missile and air coverage — effectively creating a “Chinese lake.”

“This would enable China to control the sea lines of communication, monitor foreign naval and air activities, enforce a South China Sea air defense identification zone and could work to blunt America’s freedom of action in times of conflict.

Hornung also said Japan, like the U.S. and others, is concerned about this because this gives China a significant edge not just in a wartime situation, but in peacetime as well, and will enable it to better monitor what the U.S. and its allies are doing in the region.

China was prepared to initiate land-reclamation at Scarborough in March, according to a Financial Times report citing current and former U.S. officials, but backed down after U.S. President Barack Obama warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping of serious consequences if it began dredging work there.

Another report, this one coming just last month by the South China Morning Post, reignited concern over the issue. It quoted an unidentified source familiar with the Scarborough matter as saying that reclamation work there would not start until after the Group of 20 summit, which wrapped up Monday in the Chinese host city of Hangzhou, but potentially before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3.

“U.S. President Barack Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office. That might make him busy and he might not have time to take care of regional security issues,” the source was quoted as saying.

The Hong Kong-based daily had earlier reported in late April that Chinese work at the shoal would begin within the year.

The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, first said last week that it had spotted Chinese barges and numerous other vessels — including Chinese coast guard ships — at Scarborough. It said these sightings could presage a move to turn the shoal into another man-made island.

State Department spokesperson Katina Adams told The Japan Times this week that it was aware of reports that the Philippines has raised concerns about the number of Chinese vessels near Scarborough.

“We continue to closely monitor the situation around Scarborough Reef, and we encourage all sides to exercise restraint and take practical steps to lower tensions,” Adams said.

Jay Batongbacal, who heads the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the state-run University of the Philippines, said the vessels seen last week could allow China to make a lightning advance on Scarborough.

“Rather than barges as widely reported, they do appear to be at least one dredging ship and a cable-laying ship,” Batongbacal told The Japan Times. “These could be for preparatory work. the dredger could be used to create deeper channels into/within the reef for subsequent construction activities. The cable laying ship could be intended to lay communications cables that would be more secure than satellite/radio links.

“Both could allow sudden massive reclamation in a single burst of activity, as soon as the weather permits,” he said, adding that a cable-laying ship could also be used to lay a series of listening devices across the seafloor all the way up to the mainland that would be effective against submarines and surface ships.

Regional security experts also said some of the vessels spotted by Manila were likely part of China’s “maritime militia,” or “little blue men,” the sea equivalent of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s “little green men” that were deployed during Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

The nominally civilian maritime militia — which China also used last month to swarm the waters near the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea — is one of Beijing’s most important tools. Often masked as innocuous fishing vessels, the militia is employed in “gray zone” activities as a tool of asymmetric warfare, offering major rewards while threatening the U.S., Japan and other potential opponents with major risks if engaged, observers say.

“It is very likely that at least a portion of these vessels (near Scarborough) are maritime militia, given that they do not seem to be engaged on purely private economic activities,” said Alex Calvo a guest professor at Nagoya University focusing on security issues. He said the vessels in the area of Scarborough could either be manned by militia members and formally affiliated with the organization or simply one with all or some crew belonging to it, perhaps sporting high-tech equipment provided by Chinese authorities.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that there had been no change to the situation around Scarborough.

“I can tell you that there has not been any change to the Huangyan Island situation. China has also not taken new actions,” spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing in Beijing, using China’s name for the shoal.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was set to ask Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at Wednesday’s summit whether the vessels were on another island-making mission on the Scarborough, just a few hundred kilometers from Philippine military bases hosting U.S. troops.

Bonnie Glaser, a regional security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, said the distance from Scarborough to the bases was a top concern for the U.S. and the Philippines. Manila is a U.S. treaty ally and a deal between the two countries allowing an increased American military presence in the former U.S. colony was greenlighted in January.

“I think the main concern is the proximity of Scarborough Shoal to the Philippines main island,” Glaser said. “The U.S. will be rotating forces out of bases in the Philippines and a Chinese military outpost on Scarborough will pose a threat to these assets.”

According to retired U.S. Marine Col. Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo, China would effectively have a permanent presence there under such a scenario.

“This is a huge military advantage,” Newsham said. “U.S. ships and aircraft may be able to operate in and transit the South China Sea, but it is an ephemeral presence — here today, gone tomorrow. The Chinese will be there regardless — and that is what matters.”

While major Chinese dredging operations in the South China Sea have apparently been halted since the end of last year, a number of observers described a move on Scarborough as seemingly imminent.

“Right now it is still unclear, but I would not really be surprised,” said Nagoya University’s Calvo. “China is indeed ready to cross that ‘red line,’ among other reasons because it is not much of a red line. It is not backed by any explicit threat to use force.”

Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, a vocal defender of Manila’s territorial claims in its dispute with Beijing, offered a more clear-cut view.

“My personal assessment is that China will start the dredging after the G-20 meeting and before the November elections in the U.S.,” Carpio told The Japan Times.

He said Beijing has long planned to militarize the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal so as to enforce its so-called “nine-dash line” claim to most of the South China Sea.

“The Chinese have built islands on all the seven reefs that China occupies in the Spratlys,” Carpio said. “There is no reason why Scarborough Shoal, strategically located near the Bashi Channel — the shortest outlet of China’s Hainan-based nuclear missile submarines to the Pacific Ocean, will be an exception.”

Abhijit Singh, head of the Maritime Policy Initiative Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, said for the Chinese, the only issue was the timing.

“My sense is that it may not happen in the next few weeks, but at an opportune moment in days following, when China can justify its reclamation by pointing to a U.S. provocation,” Singh said. “But I have little doubt that the Chinese will ultimately build a structure on Scarborough, because it’s the last link in the regional maritime strategy.”

With ramped-up military activity in the waters recently, including U.S. “freedom of navigation” patrols near Chinese-held islands and regular Chinese air force “combat patrols” in the area, the potential for an unintended clash — something that could be seen as an “opportune moment” — is high.

But regardless of any Chinese move on Scarborough, the mere psychological effects of the issue could also prove destabilizing.

“The psychological threat of China dominating such a strategic area has many worried that China will control the South China Sea, and all the trade that transits through it,” said Sasakawa’s Hornung. “This, in turn, has led regional countries like Japan to look with concerned eyes to the U.S. should the dredging start.

To date, the U.S. has opposed Chinese actions in the South China Sea. But beyond the occasional patrol or limited efforts to bolster regional nations maritime capabilities, the U.S. response has essentially been limited to diplomatic protests and the building of a coalition opposed to Chinese actions.

“Because the Philippines is a treaty ally of the U.S., if China can act freely with no U.S. response beyond a diplomatic protest, its credibility as an ally will be under severe stress,” said Hornung. “In particular, a non-U.S. response would send shock waves through Tokyo, given that concerns over U.S. commitment to the defense of the Senkaku Islands continues to lurk among officialdom in Tokyo.”

“If China starts to dredge, it behooves the U.S. to act firmly, knowing that its response will be under close scrutiny from its regional allies.”</s>We shouldn't be surprised by the coarseness spewing from Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who insulted President Barack Obama by calling him a "son of a whore." Vulgarity is Duterte's calling card. Miffed at the traffic jam that Pope Francis' visit to Manila caused in 2015, he called the pontiff exactly what he called Obama. He also once said he would castrate men who did not go along with his plan for mass vasectomies to deal with overpopulation. And at an election rally last spring, he joked about not getting a chance to rape an Australian woman, a missionary who in 1989 had been taken hostage, raped and killed during a prison riot.

What's more worrisome about Duterte is how he has overseen a vicious campaign of extrajudicial killings in the name of waging war against Philippine drug dealers and addicts. Local estimates put the number of people killed in his drug war at 2,400 in a span of two months. Police and vigilante groups are carrying out street executions, embracing what Duterte labeled his "shoot to kill" approach to drug dealing and drug use. The 71-year-old leader took office earlier this summer and hasn't been vague about his intent, telling a crowd in a Manila slum on the day of his inauguration, "If you know of any addicts, go ahead and kill them yourself, as getting their parents to do it would be too painful."

Obama was right to respond to Duterte's intemperate babbling at an Asian summit in Laos by canceling a bilateral meeting with the Philippine leader, who now says he regretted what he said. (The two informally met Wednesday at a dinner of world leaders and exchanged niceties.) But long after the summit, the U.S. faces a much trickier task in dealing with the Philippine leader. How hard should the U.S. come down on a government that jettisons due process, yet also serves as a vital ally in American policy toward China?

We think the answer is simple: The U.S. should get tough with Duterte. His bombastic populism has endeared him to a nation wearied by establishment politics and fed up with drug crime. But Filipinos for the most part are ardently pro-United States. Duterte's brutal drug war may be popular with Filipinos, but alienating the U.S. likely won't be. That's leverage Washington can use as it looks for ways to pressure Duterte to carry out his fight against drugs through lawful arrests and fair trials rather than by crassly flouting human rights.

Filipinos know how vital the U.S. is to their effort to keep China from commandeering a crucial swath of the Pacific. China has been creating artificial islands in the South China Sea to justify its claim to territorial waters there — a charade declared illegitimate by an international tribunal in July in The Hague. Under Duterte's predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, Manila bolstered an already strong military alliance with the U.S. as a counterpoint to China's actions in the South China Sea, allowing Washington to build military facilities at five Philippine bases.

Duterte has his own ideas about the South China Sea dispute, including the possibility of giving in to China's claim in exchange for China building a new rail line on the island of Mindanao, where Duterte is from. That may not sit well with the majority of Filipinos, given their wariness of China's actions.

We've seen Duterte's kind before — around the globe, presidential candidates often build election campaigns on reckless populist rhetoric. While Duterte's gutter talk is meant almost exclusively for domestic consumption, his lack of regard for human rights is something the West, and the U.S. in particular, shouldn't and can't ignore. The Obama administration and its successor have to let Duterte know that he risks a scaled-back relationship with the U.S. if he continues to allow extrajudicial killings — an estrangement that surely would hurt the Filipino leader's popularity at home.</s>VIENTIANE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The Philippines said on Wednesday it was "gravely concerned" that Chinese boats were preparing to build structures at a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, shattering an appearance of cordiality at an Asian summit in Laos.

Officials said talks between Southeast Asian leaders and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang went smoothly and there was no tension over a recent ruling by an arbitration court in The Hague that invalidated China's claims to the waterway.

But, hours before the meeting, the Philippines' defence ministry released photographs and a map showing what it said was an increased number of Chinese vessels near Scarborough Shoal, which China seized after a standoff in 2012.

The ministry's spokesman told reporters in Manila the pictures were made public because China's ambassador to the Philippines had denied there was any new activity there.

"We believed that this is precursor to possible building of structures on the shoal," spokesman Arsenio Andolong said, adding that China's denial was "even more disturbing".

China said there had been no change to the situation around the shoal and it had not taken any new action there.

"Given this situation, some people are hyping the situation by spreading that kind of information," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily briefing in Beijing.

China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei claim parts or all of the resource-rich South China Sea, making it a hot spot of regional tension. The last four are members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

China has over the past year alarmed other claimants, and outside powers such as the United States and Japan, by re-claiming land on several disputed reefs through dredging, and building air fields and port facilities.

A Philippines official said the release of the pictures and a map showing the ships' positions was ordered by the defence minister, who was at the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Laos.

But there was no row over the issue at the summit.

"It seems that every country played down the level of conflict, therefore the tone of the meeting was quite friendly and emphasised peace and security within the region," said Major General Weerachon Sukhondhapatipak, a Thai government spokesman.

The Philippine concern about the shoal comes after a dispute with the United States, its main ally.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte criticised U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday, prompting the cancellation of a meeting between them in Laos.

China has repeatedly blamed the United States for stirring up trouble in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which more than $5 trillion of trade moves annually.

The United States says it has no position on the territorial disputes but wants to ensure freedom of navigation.

With that in mind, it has conducted patrols close to Chinese-held islands, to Beijing's anger, while China has been bolstering its military presence in the sea.

Although the Scarborough Shoal is merely a few rocks poking above the sea, it is important to the Philippines because of the fish stocks in the area. Manila says China's blockade of the shoal is a violation of international law.

The dispute has become more significant since the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in July that no country had sovereign rights over activity at Scarborough Shoal, a traditional fishing ground for Chinese, Filipino and Vietnamese. China has refused to recognise the ruling by the court in The Hague.

Duterte wants China to abide by the ruling but he had pledged not to raise the issue during the meeting in Laos.

Instead, he wants to smooth the way for bilateral negotiations and last month sent former President Fidel Ramos as his special envoy to meet Chinese representatives in Hong Kong.

A senior Chinese official said Beijing was confident it could return to a healthy relationship with the Philippines.

"In the past 30 years, the relationship has been very smooth, it's only in the past few years, because of some problems known to all, the relationship has been affected," vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin said at the Laos summit.

A draft ASEAN communique seen by Reuters on Monday listed eight points related to the South China Sea, but made no mention of the arbitration ruling.

The bloc traditionally shies away from taking a position on thorny diplomatic issues, especially where China is concerned, because of its influence in the region.

Still, a Philippine security official travelling with Duterte said it was a challenge for the government to explain to fishermen why they could not return to the Scarborough Shoal area when The Hague had ruled it was a fishing ground for all.

"We won in the arbitral court, but we could not enforce it, how can we explain that to our own fishermen?" said the official, who declined to be identified.

"So, we wanted to talk to China and resolve the issue, but the situation like this is making it more difficult. The president is asking what is China's intentions in the area?"</s>Beijing's "illegal" island building in the South China Sea moved centre stage at an Asian summit Wednesday after the Philippines produced evidence it said showed fresh construction activity at a flashpoint shoal.

An artificial island at Scarborough Shoal could be a game changer in China's quest to control the sea and raises the risk of armed confrontation with the United States, according to security analysts.

Beijing this week insisted it had not started building at the shoal -- a move that could lead to a military outpost just 230 kilometres (140 miles) from the main Philippine island, where US forces are stationed.

But the Philippines on Wednesday released images it said showed Chinese ships in the area that were capable of dredging sand and other activities required to build an artificial island.

"We have reason to believe that their presence is a precursor to building activities on the shoal," defence department spokesman Arsenio Andolong told AFP.

"We are continuing our surveillance and monitoring of their presence and activities, which are disturbing."

China claims nearly all of the sea, through which $5 trillion in shipping trade passes annually, even waters approaching the coasts of the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.

The competing territorial claims have long been a major source of tension in the region, with China using deadly force twice to seize control of islands from Vietnam.

Tensions have escalated sharply in recent years as China has built islands on reefs and islets in the Spratlys archipelago -- another strategically important location -- that are capable of supporting military operations.

The United States has reacted to that build-up by sailing warships close to the new islands, and sending warplanes over them.

This has deeply angered China, which has accused the Americans of "militarising the region", and raised concerns of armed conflict between the two world powers.

A UN-backed tribunal ruled in July that China's claims to most of the sea had no legal basis and its construction of artificial islands in the disputed waters was illegal.

But Beijing vowed to ignore the ruling.

China took control of Scarborough shoal in 2012 after a standoff with the Philippine Navy, and has since deployed large fishing fleets while blocking Filipino fishermen.

Expanding that presence with a military outpost is vital to achieving China's ambitions of controlling the sea, according to security analysts.

US officials fear a Chinese military airfield at the shoal would enable China to enforce a threatened air defence identification zone in the sea.

Another major concern is it allows China a military base close to where US forces regularly operate on the Philippine main island of Luzon.

US President Barack Obama reportedly directly warned his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during a meeting in March not to push ahead with any artificial island building there.

The United States, which is a treaty ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly said it does not want to fight a war over the shoal.

But military confrontation can not be ruled out if China does start to build an island, according to security analysts.

"We could witness a physical confrontation between Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino vessels backed up by the US Navy," Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia's University of New South Wales, told AFP.

An Obama aide on Wednesday played down the significance of the Philippine photos, telling reporters the United States had not detected any unusual activity at Scarborough Shoal.

When pressed on initial Philippine accusations on Monday before the photos were released, China insisted there were no dredging boats or others to prepare for island building.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte had said he did not want to anger China by highlighting the territorial row at the summit of regional leaders in Laos this week.

But the release of the photos came just a few hours before Duterte and other leaders from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations met China's Li.

Also on Wednesday, the Philipppine coast guard announced that United States is giving Manila two used military aircraft, to help expand sea patrols in the face of territorial disputes with China.

The two Sherpa 30-seater aircraft will be delivered in December, Philippine coast guard spokesman Commander Armand Balilo told AFP.

"It will help us in the movements of the Philippine Coast Guard like patrol missions," Balilo added.

Obama is also in Laos for the regional meetings, which will conclude on Thursday with an East Asia summit.
The Duterte administration accuses China of building a "secret island" on the Scarborough Shoal.