In a jam-packed sports arena on Easter Monday, the man currently tipped to win the French presidential election —a strikingly young politician fighting his first-ever campaign—stood on a spotlit podium in front of more than 20,000 people, promising to transform his country's government and kickstart its flagging economy.

"Every generation has its role in history!" said Emmanuel Macron , 39, a liberal, pro-E.U. economist who until a year ago served in President François Hollande's government. "Our generation is to govern our country effectively together," Macron shouted, over loud chants from the crowds of, "We will win! We will win!"

Standing on the floor, Nicole Landre, a 60-year-old marketing manager from the affluent Paris suburb of Sevres, was thrilled. "I have always voted conservative," she said. "But not this time. Macron is brilliant. He is young. He is our own J.F.K."

On Thursday, another politician often compared to JFK gave Macron a friendly call: Barack Obama. The former President issued a statement saying he "appreciated the opportunity to hear from Mr. Macron about his campaign and the important upcoming presidential election."

The call from the former U.S. President was in the works for a few weeks, according to Macron's campaign spokeswoman Laurence Haim. "We have been in contact for the past weeks, both teams," Haim, who was previously a political correspondent in Washington, told TIME. Former Obama officials, she said, "are really following what is happening in France."

Obama enjoys huge popularity in France—support that reached a high point last year during the global climate talks, which Paris hosted. Nonetheless, Haim said, it was not a formal endorsement "but a conversation between two men who share the same democratic values." The presidential imprimatur might seem to add to the growing sense of inevitability surrounding Macron — but it is still deeply uncertain whether the young centrist can emerge from this bruising election as the winner.

Just two days before the country is set to vote on Sunday, in the first round of an election many see as its most consequential in decades, all is still to play for. The two parties that have governed France for nearly 50 years—the ruling Socialist Party and the Republicans—have floundered badly amid voter anger and scandal. Instead insurgents and outsiders are competing at the top of the polls , turning the normally predictable French political scene into a free-for-all fight.

Polls on Thursday showed Macron in a virtual dead-heat in the first-round election with far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, each with about 23 percent of intended voters. The Republican candidate, former Prime Minister François Fillon, and the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, both trail just a few points behind; the Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon lags badly behind all those—a possible death knell for France's Socialist Party itself.

"The competition is very high in this election," says Guillaume Liegey, cofounder of the Paris campaign technology company Liegey Muller Pons, who helped design Macron's political strategy last year when he abandoned France's deeply unpopular leader to launch his new movement, En Marche! (On the Move!) "For the first time we have four candidates who could qualify for the second round," he says. "We have never seen that before."

The two top vote-getters among the 11 candidates on Sunday's ballot will face a run-off election on May 7, and for weeks the most likely scenario has been a contest between Macron and Le Pen. At that point, according to most polls, left-wing and right-wing voters will band together to vote for Macron, no matter what their political views are, in order to deny Le Pen the presidency. The right-winger is vowing to take France out of the E.U., drop the use of the Euro and bring back a national currency, and drastically roll back all immigration.

Barnstorming across the country, Le Pen has raced to mobilize her supporters in the final days of the campaign. In an Easter Monday rally across Paris from Macron's huge crowds, a far smaller audience of about 6,000 packed a concert hall, to hear her final plea to "take back France," and to block illegal immigration . "We are in a political crisis, and we need to get out of the E.U.," says Hugo Jorge-Novio, 22, a law student from northern France. A history student named Adrien, 21, did not want to give his last name, since his fellow students at the Sorbonne University in Paris "do not approve of what I think," he says. "I am strongly against immigration. Many young people want to protect their identity," he said, seated in the hall at Le Pen's public meeting.

Those fears will likely propel Le Pen into the second round, polls suggest, but that they are not enough to clinch the presidency for her.

Then again the polls could all be wrong. As the race has tightened over the past two weeks, pollsters have warned that while the line-up of candidates has seemed relatively stable, the election remains very unpredictable —and that the elections could yet produce a massive upset.

In a country where people generally keep their views to themselves, the prospect of a totally unpredictable outcome has exploded in conversation over the past week. There is almost incessant political talk in every café, street market, and taxi. Some speculate that Mélenchon will stun France by sweeping to victory on his firebrand message of supertaxes on the rich, retirement benefits at age 60, and redistributing France's wealth.

Others swear Fillon—under judicial probe for misusing public funds—will ultimately win, as millions of Le Pen's supporters switch their votes at the last minute to the seasoned conservative politician. As a few parents from Paris's Left Bank—a more liberal and also more moneyed area—stood chatting on Thursday, some speculated about leaving France altogether, should Mélenchon or Le Pen win.

Polls suggest 22 percent of voters are still not sure they will vote at all , and about 30% of voters say they are not sure for whom they will vote—a higher percentage than in previous elections, where there were fewer candidates and a near-certainty that the winner would come from one of the two traditional parties.

"Usually you have a part of the voters who decide at the last minute, and now we have an even larger proportion," says Edouard Lecerf, global director of political opinion and research at Kantar Public in Paris. The company polled voters last weekend, and found that while most had already chosen a candidate, some were not totally certain.

That uncertainty could impact one candidate far more than others: Emmanuel Macron.

Macron's program is a mix of both left-wing ideas, like strong climate-change regulations and EU commitments; and right-wing policies, like giving companies greater ability to fire employees, and rolling back special wealth-taxes on the richest citizens. "What Emmanuel Macron has done at 39 years old has never been done before," says Haim. A year ago, when Macron launched his political movement, "everyone was saying it is completely surreal, he does not have a party behind him," Haim says. "One year later, he's a favorite to win the election. It is absolutely extraordinary for someone to do that in France."

Macron designed his En Marche! movement after a similar insurgent campaign — that of Obama in 2008, according to Liegey, who volunteered for that Obama campaign while he was a student at Harvard University. "This [En Marche!] is very much like a U.S. movement," he said on Thursday. "Emmanuel Macron did exactly what Obama dad: He built a movement outside of the party structure."

But his mix of left- and right-wing politics appear to have come at a price. About one-third of his likely voters polled last weekend by Kantar said they could perhaps change their mind before Sunday's election—a high enough proportion to make the result highly uncertain. The question is, Lecerf says, "will they confirm their choice in the end, or will they radically change?"

By Sunday night, the French will know the answer to that.</s>Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review, and a former CNN producer and correspondent. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.

St-Remy-de-Provence, France (CNN) Just days before French voters go to the polls, gunshots rang out on Thursday in Paris' iconic Champs-Elysees. It was another jarring reminder to French voters of the high stakes and confusing choices they face in a pivotal election -- one whose outcome has become impossible to predict.

At this moment, there are few details about the killing of a police officer in the heart of Paris , and the motive is unknown, although an ISIS statement claims the shooter was one of its fighters.

It came as the nation focused on the Sunday vote, which will be the first step in electing a new president, a decision that will have repercussions far beyond the shores of France. It will determine if the wave of nationalist populism sweeping across the globe will continue to reshape the international landscape. Or whether perhaps globalization -- a dominant political and economic ideology -- can survive and thrive in the 21st century.

Once the first ballot is counted, we will have a better sense whether the European Union will endure; how Europe is likely to address its refugee issue and what lies ahead for European relations with Russia, after yet another election with signs of meddling from Moscow.

"It's good to have electroshock," Lydia, a local real estate agent, told me. She wouldn't give her last name, but said she will vote for Marine Le Pen, the far-right, anti-immigrant candidate, who seems well positioned to make it to next month's runoff. Lydia said she doesn't expect Le Pen to become president, but she expects a strong showing to give a jolt to the establishment and show the depth of discontent, particularly on the immigration issue.

In storied Provence, a land of vineyards, olive groves and charming towns, it's startling to hear this kind of discontent among the French, but the sentiment is there, and it has already upended French politics. The current President, Francois Hollande, is so unpopular that he decided not to run -- the first president since World War II not to seek re-election.

And voters are abandoning the two mainstream parties, the Socialists and Republicans, which have dominated French politics for decades. While they have always garnered the overwhelming majority of support, this time they may not get even a quarter of the votes. In fact, the parties that until now took turns governing France may not even have a candidate in the final round.

The French are distressed by the impact of globalization, a stubbornly sluggish economy, the growing presence of immigrants and refugees and a spate of terrorist attacks by radical Islamists that have killed hundreds and continue to threaten at every turn. Just this week, security forces disrupted what they described as yet another imminent terrorist plot in the city of Marseille.

Incredibly, with just a few days left, almost half the voters I spoke with remain undecided. Even more surprising is the number of people who told me they will not vote at all.

Anjelica Leconte, a 22-year-old student, said "They [politicians] are all liars and hypocrites," explaining why she doesn't plan to vote.

Her boyfriend, Jeremy Entressangle, will vote. But his seemingly contradictory wavering encapsulates the emotional turmoil of the choice. He is leaning toward Marine Le Pen of the National Front, who, as mentioned before, is the far-right candidate, with a disdain for Islam and a fondness for Russia.

But what are the chances these two emerge as the victors? Le Pen has led most of the polls, though surveys show four candidates clustered at the top. Le Pen is followed by the leading centrist in the race, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, the center-right Francois Fillon -- who is surviving despite a scandal surrounding government payments to his wife -- and Melenchon, whose meteoric rise in the past few weeks stunned the establishment.

Experts have also warned the French to be skeptical about what they read online amid growing suggestions that Russian media and Russian-linked online operations are working to influence the election. One study showed almost one in five links shared by social media users contained fake news with signs of Russian involvement, favoring pro-Putin candidates. Of the top four, Le Pen appears to have the closest ties with Moscow, but only Macron does not support improved relations with Russia.

And though the outcome of the election is a tossup, the odds appear to slightly favor the young up-and-comer, Macron, who has maintained a steady second, occasionally first, place in the polls.

Macron, a former economics minister under Hollande, last year founded his own movement, En Marche! roughly meaning "Forward!" The exclamation point gives it a force that some voters told me Macron lacks. He is the standard-bearer of the center, a position from which it is more difficult to stir up fiery passions. He supports the European Union and proposes a hazy blend of economic policies aimed at stimulating the free markets while protecting the country's generous social benefits. And he says accepting refugees fleeing war is the country's duty.

Long before this election, the French had earned a reputation as chronic pessimists . This time, however, many of their fears and concerns reflect worries afflicting the rest of the world. This angst-filled nation is taking its discontent to the polls. The electoral outcome will give us a strong indication of what lies ahead -- not just for Paris, but for the globe.</s>Bruce Glikas/Getty Images(PARIS) — Former U.S. President Barack Obama spoke to French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, but “an endorsement was not the purpose of the call,” Obama’s spokesman said in a statement.

However, “President Obama remains deeply committed” to France “as a close ally of the United States and as a leader on behalf of liberal values in Europe and around the world,” Obama spokesman Kevin Lewis said.

The French will go to the polls on Sunday for a first-round vote that could be as consequential as the U.K.’s Brexit vote and the election of President Donald Trump.

Lewis said that Obama would not be “making any formal endorsement” before the vote.

A spokesperson for Macron confirmed the call, saying, “Obama talked about his strong links with France and the importance of the ties between the two countries.”

“They also discussed about the future of Europe and the progressive values that they both share,” Macron’s spokesperson said.

Sunday’s vote will see Macron up against 10 other candidates, some with populist, anti-establishment leanings.

Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are widely seen as front-runners, according to European media reports, and the race is considered very competitive.

Macron, 39, is a former banker who served as his country’s economy minister until 2016.

Le Pen, 48, is a lawyer by training and took leadership of her National Front party from her father in 2011. She is currently a member of the European Parliament.

Le Pen has promised to “put France back in order” by holding a referendum on EU membership, restricting immigration, increasing border controls and giving French citizens a “national priority” for jobs by taxing businesses that hire foreign workers.

If no one among the 11 candidates wins more than 50 percent of the vote, then the top two vote getters will compete in a runoff on May 7.

Analysts say a runoff vote will likely take place.</s>PARIS — The Champs-Elysees gunman who shot and killed a police officer just days before France's presidential election was detained in February for threatening police but then freed, two officials told The Associated Press on Friday. He was also convicted in 2003 of attempted homicide in the shootings of two police officers.

The French government pulled out all the stops to protect Sunday's vote as the attack deepened France's political divide.

"Nothing must hamper this democratic moment, essential for our country," Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said after a high-level meeting Friday that reviewed the government's already heightened security plans for the two-round vote that begins Sunday.

"Barbarity and cowardice struck Paris last night," the prime minister said, appealing for national unity and for people "not to succumb to fear."

Investigators believe at this stage that the gunman, 39-year-old Frenchman Karim Cheurfi, was alone in killing a police officer and wounding two others and a German tourist on Thursday night, less than 72 hours before the polls open, a French official who discussed details of the investigation with the AP said on condition of anonymity.

The official and another, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Cheurfi was detained toward the end of February after speaking threateningly about police but was then released for lack of evidence.

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for Thursday's attack unusually quickly in a statement that sowed confusion by apparently misidentifying the gunman.

Police shot and killed Cheurfi after he opened fire on a police van on Paris' most famous boulevard. Investigators found a pump-action shotgun and knives in his car. Cheurfi's identity was confirmed from his fingerprints.

One of the key questions was how the attack might impact French voters.

The risk for the main presidential candidates is misjudging the public mood by making an ill-perceived gesture or comment. With polling so close, and campaigning banned starting Friday at midnight, they would have no time to recover before voters cast ballots.

The two top finishers Sunday advance to a winner-takes-all presidential runoff on May 7. Two of the main candidates, conservative Francois Fillon and centrist Emmanuel Macron, cancelled planned campaign stops Friday.

The attack brought back the recurrent campaign theme of France's fight against Islamic extremism, one of the mainstays of the anti-immigration platform of far-right leader Marine Le Pen and also, to a lesser extent, of Fillon, a former prime minister. In the wake of the assault, they redoubled appeals for a firmer hand against Islamic extremism and promised get-tough measures if elected.

Le Pen, speaking at her campaign headquarters, urged the outgoing Socialist government to immediately re-establish border controls. Cazeneuve, the Socialist prime minister, accused the National Front leader of seeking to make political hay from the assault.

After Le Pen spoke scathingly Friday of the government's fight against extremism, Cazeneuve said Le Pen's party in 2014 voted against an anti-terrorism law and, in 2015, against a law that beefed up resources for French intelligence services.

He said: "She seems to be deliberately forgetting everything that has been done over five years to make people forget that she opposed everything, without ever proposing anything serious or credible."

Fillon separately pledged to maintain the state of emergency that has been in place since IS-claimed gun and bomb attacks killed 130 people in Paris in November 2015.

"The fight for the French people's freedom and security will be mine. This must be the priority," he said.

As Paris got back to business, municipal workers in white hygiene suits were out before dawn to wash down the sidewalk where the assault took place — a scene now depressingly familiar after multiple attacks that have killed more than 230 people in France over two years. Delivery trucks did their early morning rounds. Everything would have seemed normal if not for a row of TV trucks parked along the boulevard that is a must-visit for tourists.

Asked if the assault would impact voting, the centrist Macron said: "No one knows."

With some voters doubtful whether the 39-year-old former banker is experienced enough to be head of state, Macron appealed for cool heads.

"What our attackers want is death, symbolism, to sow panic (and) to disturb a democratic process, which is the presidential election," he said.

Macron said he canceled campaign stops out of a sense of "decency" and to allow police to concentrate their resources on the attack investigation.

Said by polls to be running neck-and-neck with Le Pen, he tore into her claims that previous attacks wouldn't have happened under her watch.

"She won't be able to protect our citizens," Macron said of Le Pen.

The two police officers injured in the attack are out of danger, Interior Ministry spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet said. National police spokesman Jerome Bonet, also speaking on BFM television, said there were thousands of people on Paris' iconic boulevard when the gunman opened fire and that the rapid response of officers who shot and killed him avoided possible "carnage."

Voters also wondered how the latest attack might impact the election.

Elena Worms, walking her dog near the Champs-Elysees, called the attack "destabilizing" and said she fears it will "push people to the extremes." She said her plans to vote Fillon remained unchanged.

"He wants to lead Muslims away from fundamentalism to security," she said.

In a statement from its Amaq news agency, IS group gave a pseudonym for the shooter, Abu Yusuf al-Beljiki, indicating he was Belgian or had lived in Belgium. But Belgium's interior minister said the pseudonym did not belong to the attacker.

Investigators searched a home early Friday in an eastern suburb of Paris believed linked to the attack and police detained for questioning three of the gunman's family members — routine in such cases.

The attack appeared to fit a spreading pattern of European extremists targeting security forces and symbols of state to discredit, take vengeance or destabilize society. It recalled two recent attacks on soldiers providing security at prominent locations around Paris: one at the Louvre museum in February and one at Orly airport last month.

For Sunday's vote, the government is mobilizing more than 50,000 police and gendarmes to protect the 70,000 polling stations, with an additional 7,000 soldiers also on patrol.</s>Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review, and a former CNN producer and correspondent. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.

St-Remy-de-Provence, France (CNN) Just days before French voters go to the polls, gunshots rang out on Thursday in Paris' iconic Champs-Elysees. It was another jarring reminder to French voters of the high stakes and confusing choices they face in a pivotal election -- one whose outcome has become impossible to predict.

At this moment, there are few details about the killing of a police officer in the heart of Paris , and the motive is unknown, although an ISIS statement claims the shooter was one of its fighters.

It came as the nation focused on the Sunday vote, which will be the first step in electing a new president, a decision that will have repercussions far beyond the shores of France. It will determine if the wave of nationalist populism sweeping across the globe will continue to reshape the international landscape. Or whether perhaps globalization -- a dominant political and economic ideology -- can survive and thrive in the 21st century.

Once the first ballot is counted, we will have a better sense whether the European Union will endure; how Europe is likely to address its refugee issue and what lies ahead for European relations with Russia, after yet another election with signs of meddling from Moscow.

"It's good to have electroshock," Lydia, a local real estate agent, told me. She wouldn't give her last name, but said she will vote for Marine Le Pen, the far-right, anti-immigrant candidate, who seems well positioned to make it to next month's runoff. Lydia said she doesn't expect Le Pen to become president, but she expects a strong showing to give a jolt to the establishment and show the depth of discontent, particularly on the immigration issue.

In storied Provence, a land of vineyards, olive groves and charming towns, it's startling to hear this kind of discontent among the French, but the sentiment is there, and it has already upended French politics. The current President, Francois Hollande, is so unpopular that he decided not to run -- the first president since World War II not to seek re-election.

And voters are abandoning the two mainstream parties, the Socialists and Republicans, which have dominated French politics for decades. While they have always garnered the overwhelming majority of support, this time they may not get even a quarter of the votes. In fact, the parties that until now took turns governing France may not even have a candidate in the final round.

The French are distressed by the impact of globalization, a stubbornly sluggish economy, the growing presence of immigrants and refugees and a spate of terrorist attacks by radical Islamists that have killed hundreds and continue to threaten at every turn. Just this week, security forces disrupted what they described as yet another imminent terrorist plot in the city of Marseille.

Incredibly, with just a few days left, almost half the voters I spoke with remain undecided. Even more surprising is the number of people who told me they will not vote at all.

Anjelica Leconte, a 22-year-old student, said "They [politicians] are all liars and hypocrites," explaining why she doesn't plan to vote.

Her boyfriend, Jeremy Entressangle, will vote. But his seemingly contradictory wavering encapsulates the emotional turmoil of the choice. He is leaning toward Marine Le Pen of the National Front, who, as mentioned before, is the far-right candidate, with a disdain for Islam and a fondness for Russia.

But what are the chances these two emerge as the victors? Le Pen has led most of the polls, though surveys show four candidates clustered at the top. Le Pen is followed by the leading centrist in the race, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, the center-right Francois Fillon -- who is surviving despite a scandal surrounding government payments to his wife -- and Melenchon, whose meteoric rise in the past few weeks stunned the establishment.

Experts have also warned the French to be skeptical about what they read online amid growing suggestions that Russian media and Russian-linked online operations are working to influence the election. One study showed almost one in five links shared by social media users contained fake news with signs of Russian involvement, favoring pro-Putin candidates. Of the top four, Le Pen appears to have the closest ties with Moscow, but only Macron does not support improved relations with Russia.

And though the outcome of the election is a tossup, the odds appear to slightly favor the young up-and-comer, Macron, who has maintained a steady second, occasionally first, place in the polls.

Macron, a former economics minister under Hollande, last year founded his own movement, En Marche! roughly meaning "Forward!" The exclamation point gives it a force that some voters told me Macron lacks. He is the standard-bearer of the center, a position from which it is more difficult to stir up fiery passions. He supports the European Union and proposes a hazy blend of economic policies aimed at stimulating the free markets while protecting the country's generous social benefits. And he says accepting refugees fleeing war is the country's duty.

Long before this election, the French had earned a reputation as chronic pessimists . This time, however, many of their fears and concerns reflect worries afflicting the rest of the world. This angst-filled nation is taking its discontent to the polls. The electoral outcome will give us a strong indication of what lies ahead -- not just for Paris, but for the globe.</s>Against all expectations except perhaps his own, François Fillon, the scandal-hit rightwing candidate for the French presidency, is back in the race.

Setting aside an earlier focus on economic shock therapy, Fillon appeared alongside his former rival Alain Juppé on Wednesday, four days before the first round of voting, in an awkward show of centre-right unity.

On Tuesday night Fillon wooed voters tempted by the far right with patriotic rhetoric. Addressing a cheering crowd in Lille, he conceded his campaign “hasn’t been a walk in the park”, but said: “I’ve a feeling we’re going to rewrite the scripts the others have devised for us … We’ll make history.”

For three months, from November to January, Fillon – a free-market liberal and social conservative in a country where that mix is almost unknown – was the firm favourite to be the next occupant of the Elysée palace. 



To the surprise of many, the former prime minister had comfortably seen off the former president Nicolas Sarkozy and the more moderate Juppé to win the nomination of the centre-right Les Républicains party. The Thatcherite-style reforms Fillon promised for what he called a “bankrupt” France – cutting taxes and public spending, slashing public sector jobs, raising the retirement age and liberalising labour laws – were tough but necessary, his supporters felt.

His sober manner and polished image as the responsible, clean-hands candidate put him up with the far-right leader Marine Le Pen at the top of the first-round polls, and he was forecast to defeat her handsomely in the run-off.

But then the satirical and investigative newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné revealed he had paid his British-born wife Penelope hundreds of thousands of euros of public money for parliamentary assistance she allegedly did not provide.

A stream of further allegations followed: that Fillon had set up similar, short-term work for his children; got a billionaire friend to pay Penelope for a non-job on his literary magazine; accepted gifts of bespoke suits and watches worth tens of thousands. Reports surfaced that a consultancy set up by Fillon in 2012 had since earned more than €1m from sometimes decidedly dubious sources, and there were claims that a Lebanese billionaire had paid Fillon paid $50,000 for an introduction to Vladimir Putin.

Both Fillon and his wife were placed under formal investigation for abuse of public funds last month. He has blamed a plot by leftwing political rivals including the outgoing Socialist president, François Hollande, magistrates and the media.

He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, but has admitted having made some mistakes. “I’m not asking you to love me,” he implored at one recent Paris rally. “I’m just asking you to support me, because it is in France’s interests.”

Fillon at one stage shed up to 10 points in the polls, slipping far behind Le Pen and the fast-rising independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. Last week the hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon surged into third place in some polls.

The two frontrunners are running out of steam as the first round nears, but Fillon’s support has firmed. Rightwing voters previously tempted by Macron to the centre and Le Pen further to the right may be returning to the fold.

In part he can thank the unswerving loyalty of his core base, the socially conservative religious right. A practising Catholic, Fillon has long promoted traditional “family values” as a foundation for French society.

Born in the traditionally Catholic Sarthe department west of Paris, Fillon is the son of a history professor mother and solicitor father. With Penelope, whom he met in Le Mans when she was a student on a year abroad, he has raised five children in a 12th-century chateau. 



He has abstained or voted against laws on equality between men and women and same-sex marriage and is personally opposed to abortion, though he would not try to repeal the 1975 law that legalised it in France.

A year after he was first elected as France’s youngest MP, he opposed the 1982 law that effectively legalised homosexuality. A centre-right gay rights group, GayLib, has described his vision of French society as “clearly hostile to LGBT people”.

Fillon has pledged to defend France’s “Christian values”. He would ban medically assisted procreation and use of sperm donors for single women and same-sex couples, and reverse some gay adoption rights.

He has also promised to set annual quotas on immigration, restrict foreigners’ rights to French nationality, set the age of criminal responsibility at 16, build 16,000 new prison cells and, in foreign policy, develop more positive ties with Russia.

The closing days of the campaign have seen Fillon more openly courting a hard-right vote, evoking France’s sovereignty and identity and promising at his Lille rally to crack down hard on immigration and pursue a zero-tolerance policy on radical Islam.

His ties to the Christian right – Sens Commun, an ultra-conservative family values group, backs his campaign and he hinted recently he might give cabinet jobs to some of its leaders – could yet cost Fillon crucial moderate votes, and for many on the left, his policies and beliefs are clearly anathema.

But polls suggest a place in the second round that appeared to have been thrown away could once more be within his grasp.</s>Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review, and a former CNN producer and correspondent. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.

St-Remy-de-Provence, France (CNN) Just days before French voters go to the polls, gunshots rang out on Thursday in Paris' iconic Champs-Elysees. It was another jarring reminder to French voters of the high stakes and confusing choices they face in a pivotal election -- one whose outcome has become impossible to predict.

At this moment, there are few details about the killing of a police officer in the heart of Paris , and the motive is unknown, although an ISIS statement claims the shooter was one of its fighters.

It came as the nation focused on the Sunday vote, which will be the first step in electing a new president, a decision that will have repercussions far beyond the shores of France. It will determine if the wave of nationalist populism sweeping across the globe will continue to reshape the international landscape. Or whether perhaps globalization -- a dominant political and economic ideology -- can survive and thrive in the 21st century.

Once the first ballot is counted, we will have a better sense whether the European Union will endure; how Europe is likely to address its refugee issue and what lies ahead for European relations with Russia, after yet another election with signs of meddling from Moscow.

"It's good to have electroshock," Lydia, a local real estate agent, told me. She wouldn't give her last name, but said she will vote for Marine Le Pen, the far-right, anti-immigrant candidate, who seems well positioned to make it to next month's runoff. Lydia said she doesn't expect Le Pen to become president, but she expects a strong showing to give a jolt to the establishment and show the depth of discontent, particularly on the immigration issue.

In storied Provence, a land of vineyards, olive groves and charming towns, it's startling to hear this kind of discontent among the French, but the sentiment is there, and it has already upended French politics. The current President, Francois Hollande, is so unpopular that he decided not to run -- the first president since World War II not to seek re-election.

And voters are abandoning the two mainstream parties, the Socialists and Republicans, which have dominated French politics for decades. While they have always garnered the overwhelming majority of support, this time they may not get even a quarter of the votes. In fact, the parties that until now took turns governing France may not even have a candidate in the final round.

The French are distressed by the impact of globalization, a stubbornly sluggish economy, the growing presence of immigrants and refugees and a spate of terrorist attacks by radical Islamists that have killed hundreds and continue to threaten at every turn. Just this week, security forces disrupted what they described as yet another imminent terrorist plot in the city of Marseille.

Incredibly, with just a few days left, almost half the voters I spoke with remain undecided. Even more surprising is the number of people who told me they will not vote at all.

Anjelica Leconte, a 22-year-old student, said "They [politicians] are all liars and hypocrites," explaining why she doesn't plan to vote.

Her boyfriend, Jeremy Entressangle, will vote. But his seemingly contradictory wavering encapsulates the emotional turmoil of the choice. He is leaning toward Marine Le Pen of the National Front, who, as mentioned before, is the far-right candidate, with a disdain for Islam and a fondness for Russia.

But what are the chances these two emerge as the victors? Le Pen has led most of the polls, though surveys show four candidates clustered at the top. Le Pen is followed by the leading centrist in the race, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, the center-right Francois Fillon -- who is surviving despite a scandal surrounding government payments to his wife -- and Melenchon, whose meteoric rise in the past few weeks stunned the establishment.

Experts have also warned the French to be skeptical about what they read online amid growing suggestions that Russian media and Russian-linked online operations are working to influence the election. One study showed almost one in five links shared by social media users contained fake news with signs of Russian involvement, favoring pro-Putin candidates. Of the top four, Le Pen appears to have the closest ties with Moscow, but only Macron does not support improved relations with Russia.

And though the outcome of the election is a tossup, the odds appear to slightly favor the young up-and-comer, Macron, who has maintained a steady second, occasionally first, place in the polls.

Macron, a former economics minister under Hollande, last year founded his own movement, En Marche! roughly meaning "Forward!" The exclamation point gives it a force that some voters told me Macron lacks. He is the standard-bearer of the center, a position from which it is more difficult to stir up fiery passions. He supports the European Union and proposes a hazy blend of economic policies aimed at stimulating the free markets while protecting the country's generous social benefits. And he says accepting refugees fleeing war is the country's duty.

Long before this election, the French had earned a reputation as chronic pessimists . This time, however, many of their fears and concerns reflect worries afflicting the rest of the world. This angst-filled nation is taking its discontent to the polls. The electoral outcome will give us a strong indication of what lies ahead -- not just for Paris, but for the globe.</s>Attempting to predict the outcome of an election is a fool's errand - we don't bother with it.

But that doesn't mean we can't make money off the vote…

Over the last few weeks, we've discussed the reasons for the rise of populism and how it's impacted the false trend in European equities. We explained how these Soros-style false moves are dependent on narrative "tests" that either strengthen the trend or reverse it. In Europe's case, its narrative test is arriving in the form of French elections.

This year's elections are pivotal because the French are dangerously close to electing a populist, anti-euro candidate named Marine Le Pen. If she clenches a victory, there's a good chance France will leave the EU, hammering the final nail into the coffin of the European experiment. The aftermath will quickly negate the short-term positives driving European equities.

The general consensus is that Le Pen will lose. But this is only one possibility. There's also a good chance Le Pen actually wins. Like we said, no point in trying to predict the outcome directly. We'd rather put our money in something clear cut when it comes to these narrative "tests." And that something is volatility.

The way we play volatility heading into macro events is based off how vol behaves around equity earnings. Take a look at Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) option volatility below:

The red dotted lines denote earnings announcements, and the blue line is the implied volatility of the weekly options. (To learn more about implied volatility and options click here.)

The pattern is clear. As earnings approach, traders bid up implied volatility. This reflects the increased uncertainty that comes with a data release. The results serve as a narrative "test" for the stock. After earnings are announced, implied volatility plummets as pent up uncertainty is resolved. You can see this in the chart. The blue line crashes to normal levels after each earnings date.

Extrapolating this pattern into macro land means going long vol into uncertain events. And then being short vol over the event to benefit from the vol crush after the uncertainty is resolved.

We executed this exact strategy during the U.S. elections. It played out perfectly. VIX ran up before the event and sold off hard afterwards.

The VIX puts we traded post U.S. elections were one of our more profitable trades in 2016. For the French elections, we wanted to pull from the same playbook.

The European stock market has its own volatility index called VSTOXX. It's their version of the VIX. They also have futures on VSTOXX making it possible to bet directly on vol.

But in this case, VSTOXX futures weren't the best option to play the French elections. They had already priced in the coming volatility.

VIX futures on the other hand were sitting in a quiet range near lows.

And on top of the election catalyst, U.S. markets had gone a while without the VIX term structure inverting (represented by a value over 1.00 in the chart). At the time, it had been 147 straight days of peace and quiet since Trump's win. And as we know, long periods of low volatility tend to precede a large spike.

There was clearly a trade here. We ended up pulling the trigger and going long vol using UVXY on April 6th (our Hub members were alerted to the trade immediately).

Over the next week, UVXY ripped as traders rushed for cheaper hedges into the French elections. Our UVXY position appreciated 20% in six days before we exited.

The original plan was to hold into the Friday before French elections. But Monday's price action warranted an exit. The vol term structure (VIX/VXV) closed below 1.00. Historically speaking, this was a reliable signal that VIX would continue to mean revert lower.

Vol could still spike more before elections, but the risk/reward isn't good enough to continue holding. At current levels, the trade is more of a 50/50 proposition than 80/20 like when we first entered. We aren't in the business of betting on fair coins. We need edge. It was time to take profits and move on.

But lucky for us, the fun isn't over. Things are getting more interesting as the election approaches. According to prediction markets, Le Pen is expected to win the most votes of any candidate in the first round of elections on April 23rd. She's represented by the light blue line below.

French elections are conducted over two rounds. The first includes all 5 presidential candidates. To secure the seat in the first round, a candidate needs over 50% of the votes. Otherwise, the elections go to a second round between the top two candidates. So although Le Pen is expected to win the most votes on the 23rd, it likely won't be enough to end the election. The race will go on to a second round on May 7th. Emmanuel Macron (the safe bet) is the favorite to win the second round because both Fillon and Melenchon voters are expected to support him over Le Pen. (Macron is pictured in light blue below.)

We made good money betting on vol into the first round of elections. The plan now is to sit back and see how things shake out on the 23rd. From there we'll look and see if any volatility trades look attractive for the second round. Our upcoming May edition of the Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) will have all the details.</s>U.S. President Donald Trump elbowed his way into the French presidential elections in the only way he knows how: Twitter. A day after a terror attack in Paris that left one dead and three wounded, Trump took to the social media site to weigh in.

“Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!” Trump wrote Friday morning. Trump lathered more praise on the candidate in an interview with Associated Press later Friday, saying she is the “strongest on borders, and she’s the strongest on what’s been going on in France.” (Though he stopped short of endorsing her explicitly.)

There’s a lot riding on the French election. The far-right and anti-EU Marine Le Pen and three other candidates — Francois Fillon, Jean-Luc Melenchon, and Emmanuel Macron — are in a neck and neck race that ends Sunday, when French take to the polls for the first round of voting. Le Pen, who has ridden a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment, has vowed to withdraw France from the European Union and shut its borders to immigrants.

Terrorism has also been a major campaign issue after a spate high-profile and deadly terror attacks in recent years. On Thursday, a gunman wielding an assault rifle with purported links to the Islamic State killed one police officer and wounded three others before being shot dead on Paris’s famous Champs Elysees boulevard. The attack came conspicuously in the middle of a primetime televised debate for the four frontrunners and seven other presidential candidates, spurring speculation the assailant, Karim Cheurfi, was actively trying to sway the election.

The candidates learned about the attack on air, and adjusted their closing remarks accordingly. “Enough of laxism, enough of naivety,” Le Pen said. “The fight against terrorism must be the absolute priority of the next French president.” Le Pen blamed “radical Islam” for the attack in a follow-up statement Friday, the last day candidates are allowed to campaign before Sunday’s vote.

Pollsters warned a last-minute event could impact the tight race, and some French political analysts predicted the latest attack inch up Le Pen’s poll numbers. Her campaign lost steam in recent weeks as centrist, pro-EU Macron gained ground.

Macron’s final debate remarks starkly juxtaposed Le Pen. “They want France to be afraid; they want to disrupt the democratic process; they want the French to yield to unreasonableness and division,” he said. “Our challenge is to protect the French, not to give up who we are, to stay unified and build a future.”

ISIS claimed credit for the attack within hours. Police found a note defending ISIS ideology next to Cheurfi’s body. On Friday, French prosecutors announced Cheurfi had four prior criminal convictions for crimes including attempted murder.

He had spent 15 years in prison and was released in October, 2015. Police said they briefly detained him in February after they received reports he was collecting guns and planning to harm police, but at the time they said they found no links to Islamic extremism.</s>Four very different candidates stand a chance of making the head to head face off to see who will become the next French president. That means there are six possible duels. Here's a look at the potential winners and losers.

As everyone keeps saying, correctly of course, this French presidential election is a little bit bonkers.

That’s because, as everyone keeps saying, it’s like no other. Because never before have four very different candidates gone into the final week with a realistic chance of qualifying for the crucial second round or as the French say “dans un mouchoir de poche” (all in a pocket handkerchief – neck and neck).

Some polls put the difference between all four candidates at just four percentage points.

So the fact that liberal progressive Emmanuel Macron, far right populist Marine Le Pen, conservative François Fillon and hard leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon are all in with a chance of facing off in the second round on May 7th means there are six very different scenarios that need to be considered.

Note that none of them involve the traditional left v right clash, because Socialist party candidate Benoit Hamon has fallen off his bike and is too far behind the peloton.

A face-off between the two frontrunners Marine Le Pen vs Emmanuel Macron is still just about the likeliest pairing in the run off vote, according to the latest polls.

This is the scenario Le Pen especially would choose to face and has already dubbed it "patriots vs globalists". Expect her to play on this division.

Le Pen vs Macron is being seen as a battle between old France and new France, “resignation” vs “optimism”, a closed country vs an open one, protectionism vs globalisation, a “free and independent France" versus a France that is an integral part of Europe.

Macron says Le Pen wants to take France back to the 1950s while he wants to pull it into the 21st century.

Le Pen says "Islamism would be on the move" under a Macron presidency where as Macron accused Le Pen of making enemies out of France’s Muslim population.

Everywhere you look there are clear battle lines. While everyone has talked of undecided voters, there presumably wouldn’t be many if this pair went head to head.

There may be abstentions though. True leftists from Mélenchon and Hamon’s camp may not be able to bring themselves to vote for pro-business Macron. Hardcore Republican supporters will also find both candidates unappealing.

Emmanuel Macron should beat Le Pen hands down by 66 percent to 34 percent, according to a Harris Interactive poll.

Fillon would need to go into exile if he does not make the second round, considering he was a shoo-in just months ago.

Just imagine the shock when at 8pm (or perhaps later, this year) on Sunday French TV stations broadcast the images of the two winners and it’s the face of hard left anti-EU, anti-globalisation Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s alongside the anti-EU, anti-globalisation figure of Marine Le Pen.

It would for many French voters, be the nearest thing to getting tasered. For those who work for the EU in Brussels it would more like getting tear gassed.

A battle between Mélenchon and Le Pen was described by former presidential favourite Alain Juppé as being like “the plague vs cholera".

Macron supporting veteran centrist François Bayrou said the prospect was "terrifying for the country and for its image and its future."

There is talk of a Black Monday with the financial markets going into meltdown the day after the result is announced due mainly to fears over a Frexit and talk of an imminent mass exodus by French entrepreneurs.

With Le Pen wanting to pull France out of the euro and Mélenchon wanting to introduce a 32-hour work week and tax earnings over €400,000 by 100 percent, French business leader Pierre Gattaz said a run-off between the paid would force France to choose between “economic disaster and economic chaos.”

Edouard Lecerf from polling agency Kantar Public believes this pairing of the two anti-system is still the most unlikely scenario because it would mean the whole centre of French politics would be eliminated.

Polls suggest the far left Mélenchon would win fairly comfortably by around 60 percent to 40 percent.

Le Pen or Mélenchon because both would then struggle to get a majority in parliament, plus those twitchy investors.

But the real loser would of course be François Fillon, who would be “crucified”, as one party big wig put it. Macron might also want to try and get his old job back at the bank.

Marine Le Pen had, according to polls and experts, already booked her place in the second round two years ago, but she could yet have her reservation cancelled at the last minute, with Fillon taking her place against Macron.

Fillon wants a “total rupture” for France’s economy including scrapping 35-hour week, raising the retirement age to 65, scrapping 500,000 public service jobs and making €100 billion worth of spending cuts.

Macron wants a more Nordic system of so-called compassionate capitalism with business friendly policies to free up the labour market and cut unemployment but still guarantee protection for the worst off.

Fillon says Macron is François Hollande in disguise

At least investors would be happy that Le Pen and Mélenchon had not made it.

This face-off must also be seen in the context of the parliamentary elections. The uncertainty of Macron’s likely lack of majority vs the stability of a Republicans majority that Fillon wold likely benefit from.

Abstainers? Many Le Pen voters The Local spoke to recently said they would not vote for any other candidate if she did not make the second round. And again real leftists may choose to abstain given that two business friendly candidates are in the last two.

However most on the left, appalled by the scandals around Fillon and put off by his free market policies would be expected to opt for Macron.

Macron would beat Fillon by an even greater margin than Le Pen, polls say 68 percent to 32 percent.

Could Le Pen be ousted from the leadership of the National Front after somehow not making the second round?

This is the pairing that has been giving voters on the left sleepless nights ever since Fillon won November’s primary ahead of the more centrist Alain Juppé. For them it would be a reminder of the nightmare 2002 election when Jean-Marie Le Pen faced Jacques Chirac.

Fillon, the man who lives in a château and who allegedly employed his wife on a lucrative but fake role as a parliamentary assistant and then barely apologized when it became public, not to mention his desire to impose Thatcherite reforms on France versus, well, Marine Le Pen. Leftwing voters would be in need of counselling.

This is the scenario that most experts believe gives Marine Le Pen her greatest chance, albeit still an outside one, of victory. That's because many Macron, Melénchon and Hamon voters may decide they just can’t vote for either candidate. But don't be surprised if, like in 2002, they block a President Le Pen.

Le Pen’s team have said in the past that facing Fillon will be a little more complicated for them given that the Republicans candidate also promises voters a hard line on her core issues of immigration, identity, Islam and security.

Nevertheless as Kantar Public’s Lecerf points out there are still clear battle lines, notably on Europe and the single currency as well as their economic plan to rejuvenate France. For example Le Pen wants to lower retirement age, Fillon wants to raise it.

Polls say FIllon's only chance of second round victory would be against Le Pen (58 percent to 42 percent).

The French justice system given that both Le Pen and Fillon have investigations against them and of course anyone on the left.

The latest polls suggest that these pair are still just about the outsiders, but they are the ones with the recent momentum. While Le Pen and Macron’s poll ratings have dipped slightly in the last month, Fillon and in particularly Jean-Luc Mélenchon have both gained ground. That momentum could continue until election day.

This battle would be fought on their economic programmes where they differ on pretty much everything, for a start Fillon wants to cut public spending by 100 billion over five years and Mélenchon wants to increase public spending by €173 billion over five years.

Perhaps the only thing they would agree on is their soft spot for Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin.

Who would win: Surprisingly polls say Mélenchon (58 percent to 42 percent) despite being considered the extremist, would come out on top against Fillon because he would sweep up the vote from the left as well as some anti-EU anti-system Le Pen voters.

That potential result will cause sleepless nights among those on the right, whose candidate Fillon was considered a shoo-in for the presidency just a few months ago.

Real loser: Le Pen would certainly come under pressure to quit if beaten by Mélenchon.

Could the right and far right really be eliminated from the second round? The French left, who feared annihilation not so long ago would be thrilled by this pairing. A battle between the traditional left and the modern business friendly left, it would be like another primary. Europe would be one of the main battlegrounds but also the economy.

The pair’s thoughts on divisive ride sharing company Uber sum the chasm that stands between them.

While Macron declared an Uber driver working up to 70 hours a week -- one of the few jobs readily available to low-skilled suburban youths in France -- had more "dignity" than someone without work, Melénchon blasted Uber as a "swindle” that offers work without social protection.

If Mélenchon did make the second round you would have to think that Hamon’s voters would go to him whereas the more centrist Fillon voters would switch to Macron. Many on the right would simply go on holiday for the long weekend, if not longer.

Macron would see off his rival fairly comfortably by 60 percent to 40 percent.

Le Pen and Fillon will both need to quit politics.
New polls show François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon neck and neck behind the frontrunners Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen ahead of the upcoming first round of the election.