FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau answers questions from the media in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, August 8, 2018. REUTERS/Christinne Muschi/File Photo

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismissed speculation on Thursday that he would call an early election this fall, a year ahead of schedule, saying his Liberal government remains focused on renegotiating NAFTA and strengthening the economy.

“It has never been in our plans and it is not in our plans. There will be no federal election this fall,” Trudeau told a news conference as he visited the province of Quebec.

Trudeau’s center-left Liberals are facing challenges on trade and immigration and are essentially tied in opinion polls with the right-leaning Conservative opposition.

A prominent Toronto Star columnist, Chantal Hebert, wrote on Monday that Canadians deserved a fall election because the political context has changed so dramatically since Trudeau was elected with a surprise majority three years ago.

Most notably, the Canada-U.S. relationship has soured since Republican President Donald Trump took office in 2017 and sparked the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico and the United States. Trump has since imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and other countries.

The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner, taking some 75 percent of its goods exports.

Trudeau is also under pressure at home, with a dramatic shift in the political leadership of key provinces away from his Liberal party, setting the stage for a heated battle over climate change and carbon pricing.

Trudeau shuffled his cabinet in July, stressing the need to diversify trade away from the United States while leaving key ministers in place. [nL1N1UE0I2]

The Canadian Broadcasting Corp’s poll tracker, an aggregation of the latest federal opinion polls, in July showed the Liberals with 36.4 percent support, the Conservatives with 34.7 percent, and the left-leaning New Democrats with 19.1 percent support.</s>Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the government has no plans to call an early election this fall, according to a report from Dow Jones Newswires supplied to EFE on Thursday.

The comment follows speculation in the Canadian media about a possible early vote, which one widely-read columnist suggested could reset the Trudeau government's mandate amid heightened trade tensions with the US and conflicts with the recently elected government of Ontario, Canada's largest province.</s>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has poured cold water on all chatter of a snap election.

"It has never been in our plans and it is not in our plans — there will be no federal election this fall," Trudeau said emphatically Thursday in Saint-Eustache, Que.

The prime minister told reporters his government has plenty of work to do "to strengthen the middle class, to build a renegotiated NAFTA that benefits Canadians and others, to continue to work on reconciliation, to continue to grow a stronger economy that works for everyone."

Speculation about a fall election has been floated recently by some high-profile columnists including The Toronto Star's Chantal Hébert and Susan Delacourt in iPolitics.

In her piece this week, Hébert noted the political environment has changed dramatically since Trudeau's Liberals won in 2015. She pointed to the election of Donald Trump in the United States and rise of provincial leaders challenging the Liberals' signature carbon pricing plan.

Federal Conservatives flagged the columns in a fundraising missive warning supporters that Liberals want to catch Tories "off guard."

"Two months ago, we emailed you about the possibility of Justin Trudeau calling an early election. Why wouldn't he?" the party claimed in the fundraising email Wednesday. "He has reneged on virtually every election promise he made."

Todd Korol / Reuters Former prime minister Stephen Harper waves to supporters at his election night headquarters in Calgary on Oct. 14, 2008.

Canadians will head to the polls on Oct. 21, 2019 in accordance with fixed-election-date legislation passed by the previous Tory government.

Former prime minister Stephen Harper argued in 2006 that fixed election dates even the playing field and "stop leaders from trying to manipulate the calendar" for their own political advantage.

However, Harper ignored his own law in 2008 when he called a snap fall election, arguing at the time that Parliament had become "dysfunctional."

Though opposition Liberals and New Democrats blasted the move as a broken promise, Harper's Tories were re-elected with a bigger minority government in 2008 and, three years later, captured a majority.</s>OTTAWA – There will be no snap election this fall, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday.

Responding to a question about the prospect of the government calling a federal election a year early, Trudeau said: "It has never been in our plans and it is not in our plans, there will be no federal election this fall."

There had been some murmurings about why the "conditions are almost perfect" for a snap fall election and that "Canadians deserve a federal election this fall" from political columnists.

Their arguments cite the drastically changed dynamics between Canada and the U.S. since the federal Liberals came to power in 2015 with a majority government; and the increasing disagreement over implementing a national carbon tax, as possible reasons for voters to go to the polls a year before scheduled.

The federal Conservative Party sent out a fundraising pitch to their supporters on Wednesday raising the possibility of an early election being called, and asking the party faithful to chip in to an "early election fund." Citing the same opinion pieces, the party said they need to be ready because "the Liberals want to catch us off guard."

“We have a lot of work that we’ve done, we have a lot of work that we’re going to continue to do,” Trudeau said to media in Quebec, offering the economy, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, and renegotiating NAFTA as examples.

The next federal election is set for Oct. 21, 2019.</s>U.S. President Donald Trump is suggesting Canada has deliberately been left out of NAFTA discussions. (Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS)

OTTAWA — U.S. President Donald Trump is suggesting Canada has deliberately been left on NAFTA’s sidelines as one-on-one talks heat up between Washington and Mexico.

For four straight weeks, U.S. trade czar Robert Lighthizer and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo have held bilateral negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement, while Canada has been absent from the bargaining table.

Canadian officials have insisted they’re unfazed by being left out of the discussions because it’s allowing the U.S. and Mexico to sort out tough bilateral issues, such as their differences on autos. They’ve stressed that there have been a lot of one-on-one talks during NAFTA’s renegotiation process.

But some observers have refused to buy that argument. They’ve said Ottawa’s partners have frozen it out of the critical NAFTA negotiations as a tactic and have warned that Canada could eventually be forced into accepting a deal reached between the U.S. and Mexico.

Trump appeared to feed that belief during a televised cabinet meeting in Washington on Thursday — on the one-year anniversary of the start of NAFTA’s renegotiation.

“We’re not negotiating with Canada right now,” said Trump, who has frequently complained about Canada’s supply-managed dairy sector.

“Their tariffs are too high, their barriers are too strong, so we’re not even talking to them right now. But we’ll see how that works out. It will only work out to our favour.”

During the cabinet meeting, Lighthizer told the room he’s hoping for a NAFTA breakthrough with Mexico in the coming days.

“I’m hopeful with Mexico and then I hope once we get one with Mexico that Canada will come along,” Lighthizer said.

The U.S. and Mexican governments have both expressed optimism the entire NAFTA renegotiation could be concluded before the end of the month.

But Trump insisted Thursday that he’s in “no rush” to make a deal.

“If you don’t have a breakthrough, as you call it, don’t do the deal because it’s a lousy situation for the United States,” he told Lighthizer.

“We have much better alternatives than that, you understand? So, if you can’t make the right deal, don’t make it.”

Trump added that NAFTA has “been a disaster for our country.”

Asked about Trump’s remarks Thursday, a spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said Ottawa’s officials remain in touch with their American and Mexican partners.

“Minister Freeland, Ambassador (David) MacNaughton and the Canadian negotiating team are in regular contact with their counterparts and we look forward to continuing these important discussions in the coming weeks,” Adam Austen wrote in an email.

“Our focus remains defending Canadian interests as we work towards a modernized, updated NAFTA agreement.”</s>This is the time in the life of a majority government when minds usually turn to the drafting of a final throne speech. For a ruling party going into its last year before a general election, the occasion is an opportunity to try to articulate an auspicious ballot-box question but also, if need be, to ditch legislative baggage not wanted on the electoral voyage.

By all indications, the early summer shuffling of the federal cabinet was a prelude to a pre-election recasting of the Liberal agenda. No one would be surprised if Parliament were prorogued before its scheduled Sept. 17 return date to set the stage for a throne speech later in the fall. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Justin Trudeau’s sunny opening act almost three years ago.

One way or another, the fall sitting of Parliament will signal the start of a year of intense partisan jostling on both sides of the House. In the era of fixed election dates, all of the above is par for the course.

Except that the times are anything but normal.

With Canada facing watershed choices on the U.S. and climate change, it is hardly a given that the country and/or its political class will be best-served by a prolonged precampaign season.

If there ever were a case to be made for sending voters to the polls earlier rather than later, it would probably be this fall.

The context has changed dramatically since three years ago, when Canadians last had an election conversation.

The terms of the Canada-U. S. relationship are in an unprecedented flux, with no real end in sight to the upheaval.

At the same time, the large provincial consensus that supported Trudeau’s climate change strategy is a thing of the past.

In both instances, bitter confrontation has replaced amicable co-operation.

As a result, the next year will feature decisive battles for the Liberal government with both the U.S. and the provinces.

For a prime minister to enter such frays with an election clock ticking loudly in the background is the political equivalent of going into battle with one arm in a cast. Should the Liberal poll numbers go south, Trudeau will be a lame duck in all but name.

Given the acrimonious state of the Trump-Trudeau relationship, the U.S. president may prefer to wait him out rather than give the prime minister any deal that could translate into a pre-election boost.

By the same token, it will be hard to achieve constructive progress on carbon pricing at the federal-provincial table as long as opponents to Trudeau’s plan construe the discussion as a dry run for the upcoming federal campaign.

To maximize his chances of steering a successful course on either front, Trudeau could certainly use a fresh mandate.

By the same token, the alternative approaches of the opposition leaders deserve the full airing of an election campaign before definitive choices are made.

Surely the issues that are about to dominate the final year of Trudeau’s current mandate demand that voters be brought in the loop no less than the original Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement did in 1988.

When columnist Susan Delacourt and her husband, political scientist Don Lenihan, floated the idea of a summer election last spring, it was dismissed in Liberal backrooms as too divisive. But since then, the notion that it could be in the national interest to send Canada to the polls early has been reinforced by the post-Ontario-election deterioration of the federal-provincial climate.

The resilience of the big multi-partisan tent Trudeau set up to deal with the Trump White House has yet to be tested against any concessions the current Canadian government might have to make to achieve a NAFTA deal.

As the federal election gets nearer, it will become more tempting to use those concessions against the party that has offered them, rather than to rally behind the compromise they would have paved the way to.

Canada’s decision to legislate fixed election dates was meant to temper a prime minister’s inclination to play with the calendar for partisan advantage. But what the legislation was not meant to do was to rob Canadians of the opportunity to debate and make timely and fundamental choices as to the way forward for the country.</s>You don’t need U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States is deliberately freezing Canada out of NAFTA talks to know that’s what’s happening, observers say.

“I hardly think that anybody who’s followed the evolution of the NAFTA talks over the past weeks would be surprised that the president would be saying we’re sort of keeping Canada at arms length,” said Brian Crowley, managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

READ MORE: Donald Trump: ‘Canada must wait’ on trade deal, but Mexican one is coming nicely

Mexico and the U.S. have been deliberating and Canadian attempts to get at the table have been “repeatedly rebuffed,” Crowley said.

How exactly a sidelined Canada will impact the future of NAFTA remains to be seen. No option is off the table yet.

Given that negotiations are ongoing, Elliot Tepper said people shouldn’t predict success or failure from whatever Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, or anyone else at the negotiating table says publicly.

WATCH: Freeland says Canada remains ‘strongly opposed’ to sunset clause in NAFTA

All statements “should be taken as part of the negotiation process rather than as an indicator of the possibility of success or failure,” said Tepper, an international relations professor at Carleton University.

While Tepper isn’t perturbed by Canada being sidelined from current discussions, he isn’t exactly optimistic.

Trump has made it clear he’d prefer bilateral deals over multilateral agreements, he said, and even once Mexico and the United States finish negotiating over auto wages, “there remain a wide, serious set of potential stumbling blocks for successful renewal of NAFTA.”

READ MORE: ‘They don’t have legal authority’: Quebec NAFTA negotiator says U.S. can’t sign deal without Canada

Being rebuffed from the table, even just on auto wages, is a bad sign, said Walid Hejazi, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.

“If it’s only the discussion about raising the costs in Mexico, then Canada doesn’t have to be there. But of course, it’s never only that in broader discussions,” he said.

While Hejazi is supportive of how Trudeau’s government is handling the file, he said Canada should be cautious now about how it proceeds.

Not everyone is so supportive of the federal government’s negotiation efforts.

“We should be back at the negotiating table, be willing to put water in our wine,” said Ian Lee, an associate professor at Carleton University’s Sprott School of Business.

Trudeau started negotiations on the wrong track, Lee said, committing to publicly defending certain industries rather than negotiating “the best possible deal for all Canadians.”

Now there’s uncertainty, he said, and “even the uncertainty means [Trump’s] winning. So we’re losing.”

There’s a real risk now that Canada will lose its voice: “They’re going to clearly strike a deal with Mexico and say to Canada, are you in or you out?”</s>OTTAWA - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will hole up with his newly shuffled cabinet for three days next week in Nanaimo.

The retreat, scheduled for Aug. 21-23, marks the first meeting of Trudeau's cabinet since he added five fresh faces and rearranged the portfolios of six other ministers in a substantial, pre-election shuffle last month.

During the retreat, the Prime Minister's Office says ministers will discuss ways to grow the economy and create jobs, with a focus on diversifying international trade, eliminating trade barriers between the provinces and maintaining the integrity and security of Canada's borders.

Trudeau focused on the same issues in the shuffle, reflecting the challenges his Liberal government faces due to American protectionism and the spike in irregular border crossers as it prepares for an election in just one year.

He named former Toronto police chief Bill Blair to head up a newly created ministry on border security and reducing organized crime; Dominic LeBlanc was moved to Intergovernmental and Northern Affairs and Internal Trade; and Jim Carr took over the renamed portfolio of International Trade Diversification.

Trudeau has announced he'll hold a first ministers' meeting sometime this fall, specifically to look at the elimination of trade barriers between the provinces and territories.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismisses speculation that he would call an early election this fall and states that his government remains focused on renegotiating NAFTA and strengthening the economy.