By Alexandra Ulmer and Alexandra Valencia

QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuador’s leftist government candidate Lenin Moreno looked set for victory on Monday in a presidential election, but slow results meant it may take days to know if he will face a runoff with former banker Guillermo Lasso.

In a nail-biter vote with eight candidates at the weekend, Moreno was close to the threshold needed to avoid a second round on April 2 and continue a decade-long period of leftist rule, just as South America is moving to the right.

While Ecuadoreans are angry over an economic downturn and corruption scandals, the opposition split its votes among candidates and the ruling Country Alliance remains popular with many poor voters thanks to social welfare programs.

As results trickled in from Ecuador’s Andes, jungle, and Pacific coast, Moreno, a disabled former vice president, was just short of the 40 percent of votes and a 10 percentage-point difference over his nearest rival to win outright.

He had 39.11 percent of valid votes versus 28.34 percent for Lasso, with 89.5 percent of votes counted, the official preliminary election count showed on Monday afternoon.

The electoral council said clarity would not arrive for three more days due to votes trickling in from isolated areas and Ecuadoreans abroad, bureaucratic delays and “inconsistencies” in some ballots.

“This doesn’t smell right. How can they take three days to count 12 percent?” said Lasso, 61, who already celebrated reaching the second round in his humid hometown of Guayaquil under a stream of confetti on Sunday night.

“We’re not going to allow fraud ... If they toy with the results, we’ll take to the streets,” he added.

Moreno shot down the opposition’s stance.

“You can’t be a sore loser,” he told a news conference on Monday evening, against a backdrop of the Ecuadorean flag and the name “Lenin” emblazoned in large letters.

“It’s striking to me that there is a politician out there calling for violence,” Moreno added, emphasizing the need to wait for final results.

A couple of hundred opposition supporters have already congregated in front of the electoral council headquarters in Quito to demand a speedier and more transparent count.

“We don’t trust the electoral council, it’s obviously pro-Country Alliance,” said Maribel Cevallos, a 34-year-old psychologist. “We’re here watching that they don’t cheat us.”

Protesters waving yellow, blue and red Ecuadorean flags chanted slogans including “We’re not Cuba or Venezuela, out with Correa!”

Outgoing President Rafael Correa was one of the key figures in Latin America’s leftist axis that includes Caracas and Havana. He brought stability to the politically turbulent OPEC country but has aggravated many with his confrontational style.

Guillermo Lasso (C), presidential candidate from the CREO party, celebrates with supporters after early election tally suggests a runoff between him and candidate of the ruling PAIS Alliance Party Lenin Moreno (not pictured), in Guayaquil, Ecuador February 19, 2017. REUTERS/Henry Romero

Correa said votes from pro-government rural provinces and Ecuadoreans abroad, many of whom left after a deep financial crisis under a center-right government, would propel Moreno, 63, past the crucial 40 percent mark.

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The next president faces strong pressure to create jobs and crack down on graft, amid corruption scandals at state-run oil company Petroecuador and Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht [ODBES.UL].

Lasso has campaigned on a platform to revive the economy, which is dependent on exports of oil, flowers and shrimp, by slashing taxes, fostering foreign investment and creating a million jobs in four years.

He has also vowed to remove Wikileaks founder Julian Assange from the Ecuadorean embassy in London and denounce Venezuela’s Socialist government.

But Lasso has also alienated some voters who deem him a stuffy elitist linked to the 1999 financial crisis when hundreds of thousands lost their savings.

Moreno, who lost the use of his legs two decades ago after being shot during a robbery, has a more conciliatory style than the pugnacious Correa and has promised benefits for the disabled, single mothers and the elderly.

“In the last few years there have been radical changes in the country, like the end of extreme poverty,” said Moreno supporter Ramiro Flores, a 60-year-old civil engineer in the mountainous capital Quito.

Critics say Moreno is ill-equipped to overhaul an ailing economy hit by low oil prices, steep debts, and a stronger U.S. dollar that has hurt exports.

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His running mate, Jorge Glas, who as strategic sectors minister oversaw the oil and infrastructure industries, has also been accused by a fugitive oil minister of corruption in the Petroecuador case. Glas has denied wrongdoing.

Moreno has said Assange can stay in the London embassy, but warned in a Monday interview with Latin American broadcaster Telesur he would ask him “not to intervene in the politics of countries that are friends of Ecuador.”

The new president takes office on May 24 for a four-year term.</s>Ecuadorean exit polls put ruling party leftist Lenin Moreno clearly ahead in Sunday’s presidential election, although it was unclear whether he had enough votes to avoid an April runoff against conservative ex-banker Guillermo Lasso. Moreno, a disabled former vice president, needs 40 percent of valid votes and a 10-percentage-point difference with his nearest rival to win outright and extend a decade of left-wing rule in the Andean country. An exit poll by Cedatos pollster estimated Moreno received some 39.4 percent of valid votes versus around 30.5 percent for Lasso. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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A separate OPECUADOR poll published by state media showed Moreno with 42.9 percent of valid votes, versus 27.7 percent for Lasso. A third survey by pollster Market said Moreno had 36.2 percent and Lasso 26.1 percent. Moreno, who lost the use of his legs two decades ago after being shot during a robbery, has a more conciliatory style than fiery outgoing President Rafael Correa and has promised benefits for the disabled, single mothers and the elderly. “Nothing and no one can stop this revolution,” said Moreno, flanked by Correa, as the first exit polls came out. “We’ve won these elections fair and square.”

Cheering supporters in Quito waved Ecuadorean flags as well as green ones proclaiming “Lenin” next to Moreno’s face. But Lasso expressed confidence he would make it to a second round. “We will present ourselves to the Ecuadorean people once again… once the truth we know in Ecuador, Latin America, and the entire world is confirmed: There’s a second round,” he said in his hometown of Guayaquil near the Pacific Coast.

Lasso has campaigned on a platform to revive the economy, which is dependent on exports of oil, flowers and shrimp, by slashing taxes, fostering foreign investment and creating 1 million jobs in four years. Should there be a second round, Ecuador’s fragmented opposition is expected to coalesce around Lasso amid anger over an economic downturn and corruption scandals. With seven opposition candidates in the first round, the opposition hurt its chances of ending Country Alliance’s run.

Argentina, Brazil, and Peru have moved towards the right recently as a commodities boom ended and weakened a leftist bloc in the region rich in oil, metals, and soy. Correa, one of the key figures in Latin America’s leftist axis for years, has brought stability to the politically turbulent country but has aggravated many with his confrontational style. He plans to move to Belgium with his Belgian wife after leaving office. Official results are not expected for another few hours.</s>Ecuadorean exit polls put ruling party leftist Lenin Moreno clearly ahead in Sunday’s presidential election, although it was unclear whether he had enough votes to avoid an April runoff against conservative ex-banker Guillermo Lasso.

Moreno, a disabled former vice president, needs 40 percent of valid votes and a 10-percentage-point difference with his nearest rival to win outright and extend a decade of left-wing rule in the Andean country.

An exit poll by Cedatos pollster estimated Moreno received some 39.4 percent of valid votes versus around 30.5 percent for Lasso. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

A separate OPECUADOR poll published by state media showed Moreno with 42.9 percent of valid votes, versus 27.7 percent for Lasso.

Moreno, who lost the use of his legs two decades ago after being shot during a robbery, has a more conciliatory style than fiery outgoing President Rafael Correa and has promised benefits for the disabled, single mothers and the elderly.

Correa, one of the key figures in Latin America’s leftist axis for years, has brought stability to the politically turbulent country but has aggravated many with his confrontational style. He plans to move to Belgium with his Belgian wife after leaving office.

Lasso has campaigned on a platform to revive the economy, which is dependent on exports of oil, flowers and shrimp, by slashing taxes, fostering foreign investment and creating 1 million jobs in four years.

Should there be a second round, Ecuador’s fragmented opposition is expected to coalesce around Lasso amid anger over an economic downturn and corruption scandals.

Argentina, Brazil, and Peru have moved towards the right recently as a commodities boom ended and weakened a leftist bloc in the region rich in oil, metals, and soy.</s>Ecuadoreans go to the polls Sunday to elect a successor to President Rafael Correa, the mercurial, charismatic leftist whose social welfare and highway projects earned him widespread support among the poor but whose authoritarian tendencies over a decade in power raised the ire of human rights and press freedom backers.

Leading the polls is Lenin Moreno, Correa’s former vice president, who uses a wheelchair and more recently was a U.N. delegate for the handicapped. Next in voter preference among seven other candidates are center-right bank chairman Guillermo Lasso and national congress member Cynthia Viteri.

Since no candidate is likely to garner the 50%-plus one vote needed to win outright, odds are that Moreno, whose voter preference numbers have ranged from 28% to 32% in recent polls, will face off against probably either Lasso or Viteri in a second, decisive runoff election on April 2.

Correa was elected to three terms in 2006, 2009 and 2013. A populist who earned a doctorate in economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, benefited from the popular rejection in many Latin American countries of neoliberal policies of the 1990s that promoted open markets and privatizations of government assets and services.

Correa, who forged close ties to the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and with Bolivian President Evo Morales, pushed through an extensive public works program and built scores of schools, dams and hospitals. Money for the projects early in his administration came from exports of Ecuadorean oil.

But Correa also faced abuse of power charges for his ttacks on the press and lawsuits against political opponents and for promoting large-scale mining projects on land claimed by indigenous groups. He earned the enmity of environmental groups by green-lighting oil drilling in the Yasuni National Park, one of the world’s most biodiverse reserves.

Although the path seemed clear for Correa to seek a fourth term after the National Assembly approved a measure in December 2015 permitting indefinite reelection of public officials, Correa in the end opted not to run, influenced perhaps by a 2016 recession worsened by declining oil prices and his plunging popularity. According to a recent poll, 62% of Ecuadoreans don’t trust him.

Moreno, the former vice president and Correa ally, has tried to distance himself somewhat from the president by promising to be more inclusive. Moreno spokesman Andres Michelena said in an interview that Moreno, if elected, would arrive “offering his hand to all sectors.”

“Perhaps in the past 10 years, a different style was needed to push through the reforms the country needed, but today what is needed is consensus, dialogue with the business community, the news media and social groups for the benefit of the country,” Michelena said. Moreno would “deepen” commercial relations with the United States, he added.

Moreno ‘s best known initiative as vice president was spearheading a program under which 300,000 handicapped Ecuadoreans were given medical and financial support. He was paralyzed by a gunshot fired by an attacker during a robbery attempt before he began his political career.

Several months ago, Moreno enjoyed sky-high approval ratings and seemed a good bet to win the presidency in the first round. But his popularity has ebbed in recent months, due in part to the worsening economy and public perception of his patron Correa, while Lasso and Viteri have risen in the polls.

Lasso, of the CREO party, is chairman of Ecuador’s second largest bank and ran for president against Correa in 2013. Viteri, who has been a member of the National Assembly since 1998, is a close ally of Jaime Nebot, the powerful mayor of Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil.

Whoever wins will inherit an economy barely growing, depressed government oil revenues and a mountain of debt, much of it owed to China, which has extended loans to the Correa government in exchange for deliveries of oil.

Special correspondents Jaramillo Viteri and Kraul reported from Quito, Ecuador, and Bogota, Colombia, respectively.

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Latin America bribery scandal widens to engulf two of the continent’s highest profile figures</s>Exit polls in Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday indicated it was too close to say whether Lenín Moreno, the successor to Rafael Correa in the ruling Alianza Pais coalition, would face his nearest rival Guillermo Lasso, of the rightwing Creo-Suma alliance, in a runoff in April.

The widely different results of two exit polls saw Moreno’s camp celebrating victory in the first round, while Lasso declared there would be a second round in which he would face the government’s candidate.

Flanked by Rafael Correa and the vice-president, Jorge Glas, Moreno told his rival to “lose with dignity” while he would “win with humility”.

Exit polls by Cedatos gave 39.4% for 63-year-old Moreno, who was a former vice-president under Correa, and 30.5% for Lasso, a 61-year-old former banker.

However, exit polls by Santiago Perez, a second polling organisation, handed victory to Moreno with 42.9%, with Lasso trailing on 27.7%. For an outright win a candidate requires 40% and a 10-point lead over his nearest rival.

A second round is not expected to favour Moreno, say analysts. They predict Ecuador’s opposition could join forces around Lasso, who has vehemently attacked the government, blaming it for an economic downturn and corruption scandals.

The two candidates offer very different visions of Ecuador’s future and its place in the world.

Moreno represents the continuity of the nation’s leftwing government, with its focus on poverty reduction, disability rights and closer Latin American integration. But supporters say he represents a change of style, being more of a listener and less confrontational towards the media compared to his predecessor, Correa.

Lasso, a former banker, has vowed to cut taxes, boost employment, trim government spending and evict the founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, from the Ecuadorian embassy in London. While Correa and Moreno have relied on Chinese loans and investment, Lasso is thought more likely to reach out to the US and the IMF.

On Sunday there were angry scenes when Lasso accompanied his running mate Andrés Páez to a polling station in the middle-class Rumipampa neighbourhood of Quito, which happened to be the same place where Moreno had to cast his ballot.

Surrounded by supporters chanting, “Lasso, please, save Ecuador,” the opposition candidate confidently told journalists the election would have a wider significance in Latin America where the “pink tide” could be reaching its low-water mark, because right-leaning leaders have taken over in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. “There will be a second round and in this round democracy and liberty will win, not just in Ecuador but also in Latin America,” he said.

By contrast Moreno, a former businessman who uses a wheelchair, cut a more placid figure as he cast his ballot surrounded by chanting supporters. “The elections are a democratic party which the people must enjoy because they are choosing the destiny they will meet in the future,” he said, choosing a more neutral tone than his rival.

A former United Nations special envoy on disability, Moreno, if he wins, he would be the first paraplegic head of state, having used a wheelchair since he was shot in a robbery.

Outside the polling station, dozens of the party faithful gathered to voice their support for Moreno, a less combative figure than Rafael Correa, known for his humour and advocacy for rights for people with disabilities. “I’ve always supported this government with all my soul, because it’s the people’s movement which cares about the forgotten ones,” said Anita Rueda, a Moreno supporter.

Wheelchair user Angel Tobias Jerez had travelled especially to support Moreno. “Our comrade Lenín Moreno has won the hearts of all of us who have a disability,” he said. “Not just here but at an international level.”

Whether he can win the presidency is another matter in an election that analysts are viewing as a vote that will test the legacy of the self-declared leader of 21st-century socialism, Rafael Correa.

“Whichever candidate wins … they will face mounting debt, corruption allegations and demands from different sectors,” said Gabriel Hidalgo, a political scientist at Quito’s Americas University.
Voters head to the polls to select the National Assembly and a new president with former vice-president Lenín Moreno facing off against former bank president Guillermo Lasso, and six other opposition candidates. There will be an April 2 runoff unless the leader receives 40 percent of the votes and is at least 10 percentage points ahead of the others. In addition, there's a tax haven referendum.