What If: Could Gary Johnson get hot and play the spoiler?

PHOENIX (AP) — Unpopular among many Americans, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have opened the door for a third-party spoiler in the presidential campaign — and just as Gary Johnson is starting to warm up.

Voters like Carlos Moreno could help him catch fire.

"I certainly don't want Trump to get in, but Clinton worries me," said Moreno, a registered Democrat who works as a process server in the Phoenix area. "I've thought about Johnson, but I haven't begun reading up on him. I better start."

The folksy Libertarian, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, is on the ballot in 50 states. Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on the ballot in about half. Neither is remotely within reach of carrying a state. Nor do Johnson or Stein appear to be in a position to tip any states toward Trump.

But there's a chance that Johnson could move a close race toward Clinton, in much the same way that Ralph Nader pulled enough votes away from Al Gore in 2000 to hand Florida to George W. Bush.

Of the roughly dozen battleground states on the road to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, it's in Arizona where circumstances could align in just such a way that Johnson could play spoiler.

While Trump naturally has an edge as the Republican nominee — the GOP has carried the state in 11 of the past 12 elections — Johnson could steal enough votes away to allow Clinton to snag the state's 11 Electoral College votes.

In congressional elections in Arizona four years ago, Libertarian candidates drew enough votes away from GOP candidates to allow Democrats Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema to win a pair of U.S. House races.

The state's junior senator, Jeff Flake, who had endeared himself to many Libertarians while serving in the House, won his bid for Senate that year, too.

"It could happen," said Flake. "Donald Trump has managed to make this an interesting state in terms of presidential politics, and not in the way that Republicans have wanted."

But the politics of third-party spoilers are complicated.

In an August CNN poll conducted in Arizona, likely Republican voters were slightly more likely than Democrats to say they'll support Johnson if he's on the ballot, 10 percent to 4 percent.

But Trump's advantage over Clinton in the poll actually widened slightly when Johnson was included, from 5 points to 7 points. That could indicate that Johnson gives a home to voters who feel closer to the Republican Party, but are not planning on supporting Trump even in a two-person race.</s>The headlines you want – delivered to your inbox daily.</s>If Hillary Clinton carries Arizona in November, there’s a good chance it won’t be because Democrats on their own have flipped a reliable GOP state they hope to win consistently someday.

Instead, Clinton and Democrats may have Gary Johnson to thank.

The Libertarian Party nominee’s best chance to influence the presidential race may come in Arizona, where the former New Mexico governor appeals to a group of finicky conservatives who make up part of the GOP base.

“It could happen,” said GOP Sen. Jeff Flake. “Donald Trump has managed to make this an interesting state in terms of presidential politics, and not in the way that Republicans have wanted.”

Johnson “is an easy out for some people in our party,” Flake told The Associated Press.

About a dozen of the most contested states will help determine which candidate gets the 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. In Arizona, where the Republican nominee has carried the state in 11 of the past 12 presidential elections, Johnson could play the spoiler, potentially putting 11 electoral votes in Clinton’s column.

The GOP’s recent struggle with independent-minded, small-government Libertarians was clear before Trump’s speech Wednesday in Phoenix, when he reaffirmed a hard line on immigration. And his stance could alienate the roughly one-quarter of Hispanic voters in the state who usually align with Republicans.

“I think that right now we’re at a tipping point, where at any moment we are going to begin to see an outpouring of support,” said Latino GOP strategist Juan Hernandez, who works for Johnson in Arizona.

Sensing an opportunity herself, Clinton began airing television advertisements in the state Friday, and has reserved $500,000 in ad time through mid-September.

Democratic strategist Andy Barr said Hispanic turnout was “the multimillion-dollar question.” About one-third of the state’s population identifies as Latino, but their share of the vote ranges between 12 percent and 16 percent, according to public and private polling.

“(The) closer it gets to 20 percent, the more our chances of winning go up,” Barr said.

Johnson will appear on the ballot in every state this fall, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on track to make it in at least half. Neither is remotely within reach of carrying a state. Neither seems in a position to tip any state toward Trump.

But Johnson could move a close race toward Clinton, in much the same way that Ralph Nader pulled enough votes away from Democrat Al Gore in 2000 to hand Florida to Republican George W. Bush.

Four years ago, Libertarian candidates in Arizona drew enough votes away from Republicans that Democrats Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema won election to the U.S. House.

Flake, who had endeared himself to many Libertarians while serving in the House, won his Senate race that year, too.

“It’s a really sore spot for the party,” Arizona Republican Party spokesman Tim Sifert said of those 2012 results. “You could see people frustrated, throwing away their vote and going with a third-party candidate.”

The views of most Libertarians, focused on personal liberty and small government, overlap more with Republicans than Democrats. Johnson’s call for dramatically lower business taxes and regulation to unburden entrepreneurs resonates with Matthew Sherman of Phoenix, who describes himself as more as a conservative than as a Republican.

“I’m for whoever has the best plan on startup companies,” said the 31-year-old who’s working on a business networking app. “So far, that’s Gary.”

Republican Dave Richins, a councilman in Mesa City, said Johnson is conservative on spending, but tolerant on social issues, which he calls “a pragmatic combination.”

“For me, a lifelong Republican, I don’t agree with everything Johnson proposes,” said Richins, a Johnson organizer. “But I find his pragmatism refreshing. That’s how we get things done.”

Johnson’s hands-off approach to government also includes decriminalizing marijuana, and he could benefit from a November ballot proposal in Arizona on that question.

“That’s another reason for Libertarians to vote in higher numbers,” said Barr, who is running the decriminalization campaign. “We’re inclined to believe that could increase Johnson’s performance.”

At the beginning of August, Johnson’s campaign had $1.2 million after raising $1.6 million in July, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Since Aug. 1, he’s raised more than $3 million, according to his campaign. That’s a paltry sum compared with Trump and Clinton, whose campaign said it raised a total of $143 million last month.

Johnson is spending in a few competitive campaign states, including Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and less competitive ones such as Oregon, New Mexico and Utah.

Arizona is not on that list, but aides say it likely will be this fall.

“As a New Mexican, he’s fairly well known in Arizona,” said Johnson’s spokesman, Joe Hunter. “Arizona makes sense for us. We have a natural base of support there.”</s>Purdue University President Mitch Daniels will have a public conversation with Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson on Sept. 13 on the university's campus in West Lafayette.

Johnson is a former two-term Republican govenor of New Mexico, and Daniels is a former two-term Republican governor of Indiana. Johnson's campaign said in a news release that each "is a strong advocate for small government and personal freedom."

Daniels has said he will not endorse a presidential candidate as part of his vow to avoid partisan political activity while he is president of Purdue.

"Conversations with Gary Johnson" will be at 5:30 p.m. Sept. 13 at Loeb Hall. What the Johnson campaign described in a news release as an "arm chair forum" is co-sponsored by the Purdue chapter of Young Americans for Liberty.

Event reservations may be made at www.eventbrite.com/e/a-conversation-with-gary-johnson-at-purdue-tickets-27266302244.

Results of a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll released Monday show that Johnson "is poised to garner significant support" in the Nov. 8 election, the Post reported. He is favored by at least 15 percent of registered voters in 15 states, the newspaper said.

The poll found Johnson is preferred by 13 percent of Indiana voters, compared with 46 percent of Hoosier voters who favor Republican Donald Trump, 30 percent who favor Democrat Hillary Clinton, 5 percent who favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein and 6 percent who have no opinion.</s>The recent Richmond Times-Dispatch endorsement of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson for president gives me a small measure of hope. Could it be that in an election where each major candidate is blackmailing us with the threat of the other, enough people might choose a better option?

It's obvious that a major problem for Johnson is simple lack of public knowledge about him. In one recent Fox News poll, only about 50 percent of people had any opinion about him at all. However, Johnson still found a favorable rating of 33 percent. That approaches Donald Trump's and Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings of 42 percent and 45 percent respectively (in the same poll). It seems reasonable that if the other 50 percent of people knew enough to say whether they like Johnson, another 33 percent would bring him to practically tower over the “traditional” candidates at 66 percent favorable.

Johnson's second problem is the standoff in which our major parties have placed us. I sincerely hope that we can de-escalate the election and not force each other to vote for candidates who are historically unpopular. Does Johnson have a chance to win this election? Maybe. I think that if all voters chose their most preferred candidate from all the available options, he could win. Only time will tell.

Wherever one stands politically, I firmly believe that each of us needs to vote for the candidate we most prefer, whoever that may be, and not for a lesser evil. I trust that the Tribune Editorial Board, like the Richmond Times-Dispatch, will consider all of the candidates carefully and fully before endorsing.</s>Gary Johnson, struggling to move his poll numbers high enough to earn a spot in the presidential debates, is beginning his first television advertising of the 2016 campaign.

Despite unprecedented discomfort with the Republican nominee, Johnson, the Libertarian candidate and a former Republican governor of New Mexico, has so far failed to sufficiently consolidate the support of Republicans opposed to Donald Trump. And he has said his campaign is doomed if he does not meet the 15% threshold needed to reach the debate stage and the national audience it provides.

So after dedicating over $2 million to radio advertising, Johnson is headed to the big screen.

"The difference between the two of us and the other candidates running for president is that we've been there," says Johnson in the low-tech, direct-to-camera spot

"And done that," adds Johnson's running mate, former Republican Gov. Bill Weld of Massachusetts.

Rather than running national advertisements aimed at lifting his numbers in the national polls used to assess viability for the debates, Johnson so far is airing the two weeks of television time mostly in western states where his campaign has expressed confidence: Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire. A pro-Johnson super PAC aired over $550,000 in television advertisements last month, but is currently not on the air. "Give us one term, America. If, after four years, you decide you don't like peace, prosperity and freedom, you can always vote a Trump or a Hillary back into office again," Johnson says. The first presidential debate will be held September 26.
Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson qualifies in Connecticut giving him ballot access to 48 states.