Image copyright NOAA/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY Image caption An image showing the 2015 El Niño with rising temperatures in the Pacific

The World Meteorological Organization says there's a 75-80% chance of a weak El Niño forming within three months.

The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world.

It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia.

El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.

According to the WMO update, sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October. However the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that's produced by the upwelling seas.

Scientists have been predicting the likelihood of a new event since May this year, with confidence increasing.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Droughts in some places and floods in many others are linked to El Niño

The WMO models are say that a fully fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80% likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event are currently low.

"The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world," said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO's Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch.

"Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures," he said.

In terms of food security, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have issued a report detailing the countries that could suffer food shortages as a result of the event.</s>GENEVA, Nov 27 (Reuters) - There is a 75-80 percent chance of a weak El Nino weather pattern forming by February and slightly lower odds that it will continue through the northern hemisphere winter of 2018/19, the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday. The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacifc that typically occurs every few years, occurred from 2015/2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods. (Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay, editing by Tom Miles)</s>GENEVA (Reuters) - There is a 75-80 percent chance of a weak El Nino weather pattern forming by February and a slightly lower likelihood that it will continue through the northern hemisphere winter of 2018-19, the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

Its forecast, based on models from around the world, was in line with that of a U.S. government arm, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, earlier this month.

An El Nino - a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically happens every few years - last occurred in 2015-2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

“The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,” Maxx Dilley, director of WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch, said in a statement.

“Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures,” he said.</s>There is a 75-80 percent chance of an El Niño weather pattern forming by February, the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted.

The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, last happened from 2015/2016 and led to weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

However, forecasters say next years event is predicted to be far weaker.

'The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,' said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO's Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch.

'Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health.

'It may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures,'

Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized, the WMO said.

It also indicated that precipitation patterns predicted for December-February resemble those normally associated with El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October 2018.

However, the atmosphere has not yet responded to this additional warmth, and the upper level winds, cloud and sea level pressure patterns do not yet reflect typical El Niño features.

Model forecasts suggest that this will change within the coming month or two.

Model predictions of the strength of the El Niño range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures peaking at approximately 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average.

The chance for a strong event (sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average) is currently low.

Above-normal precipitation is favoured in part of southern North America, part of southeast South America, part of northwest North America, central and northern Asia, part of southwest Asia, part of the eastern Maritime Continent, and part of Europe.

Near-normal precipitation is favoured in parts of interior northern tropical Africa.
The World Meteorological Organization and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predict a weak El Niño forming within three months.