On “Super Saturday”, Bill Shorten dodged a political bullet, while Nick Xenophon took one. South Australian Liberal leader Steven Marshall got the result he should have secured four years ago. The Greens proved the old maxim that disunity is death.

The Batman byelection and the poll in South Australia threw up all sorts of interesting points – even though in other circumstances, contests in a heartland Labor seat and a state with a 16-year-old government might have been routine.

For Shorten, avoiding defeat in Batman was vital – for Labor’s current momentum, for confidence in his leadership and, given his gamble of announcing his latest tax move in the campaign’s last week, for holding the line on a controversial policy.

Read more: After 16 years, electoral dynamics finally caught up with Labor in South Australia

Many things contributed to Labor’s win, but if you were looking for one, I suspect it might have been that Ged Kearney wasn’t David Feeney. Kearney was the sort of candidate who encouraged Labor voters to be faithful, and not run away in fury.

As for the tax announcement, election watcher Tim Colebatch notes that the pro-Labor swing in the postals and pre-poll votes was much bigger than in the polling booths on the day, and suggests this may show the impact of Shorten unveiling his plan to scrap cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits.

That the announcement didn’t stymie Labor in the byelection doesn’t mean Shorten has won the argument more widely. Labor will have much explaining to do in this complicated area. But if it had seriously backfired in Batman, that would have given ammunition to the Coalition and caused tensions in the opposition.

Labor was helped in the byelection by the Greens’ internal backbiting. The Greens’ failure to capitalise on a great chance reflects badly on their locals and on leader Richard Di Natale.

The party has deeper problems than its schisms in Batman. It lost a seat in the recent election in Tasmania, its heartland. Nationally, the citizenship crisis has taken its toll, costing it a couple of its strongest Senate performers in Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters. Batman suggests it may have stalled in its push for inner-city federal seats. The next federal election sees the Greens particularly exposed because of the number of senators the party has going out.

The South Australian result has presented something of a reality check on perceptions of the potency of so-called “insurgencies”. This is the third recent state poll in which a major party has won a majority. Late last year in Queensland, Labor secured a second term, as did the Liberals in Tasmania earlier this month.

In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network got nowhere. In Queensland, One Nation won votes but only one seat. And in South Australia, Xenophon’s SA-Best crashed after initial too-good-to-be-true polls, with Xenophon failing to win the seat he was seeking and SA-Best expected to have no lower house representation.

Read more: Liberals win South Australian election as Xenophon crushed, while Labor stuns the Greens in Batman

At state level, even when such parties achieve a respectable vote (SA-Best received about 14% of the statewide vote, as did One Nation in the Queensland election), the electoral system makes it hard for them to translate that into lower house seats.

Federally, the Senate’s proportional representation voting system has given small players a relatively easy passage to a very powerful place, although changes to the electoral arrangements will make that more difficult in future.

The “disruptors” are important, because the support they attract is a measure of the disillusionment and fragmentation in the contemporary political system. But South Australia reinforces the point that the major parties are still strong. For quite a few voters, the choice is between duelling desires – between sending an angry message or opting for stability.

Outgoing premier Jay Weatherill, gracious in defeat on Saturday night, didn’t look all that upset. Labor’s bidding for a fifth term in this day and age was an almost impossible ask; anyway, Labor won last time with only about 47% of the two-party vote, so it has been on borrowed time.

The huge loser in South Australia was Xenophon. In politics, as in business, you can be too greedy. Xenophon led a three-person Senate block that had a decisive share of the balance of power. It was capable of exerting much influence, and winning concessions in negotiating legislation. Then he decided he wanted to be kingmaker in South Australia – while still aspiring to be the absent master in Canberra.

His party is likely to end up with just a couple of upper house seats in South Australia. Meanwhile, the federal Senate team has been hit by the citizenship crisis as well as weakened by Xenophon’s departure.

Due to a fight with the party, Tim Storer, a replacement for Skye Kakoschke-Moore, a casualty of the citizenship debacle, will be sworn into the Senate on Monday as an independent. The Nick Xenophon Team has been reduced to two senators (and Rebekha Sharkie in the lower house, who could face a byelection in the citizenship saga).

Xenophon is in neither parliament, and the road ahead for his party is rocky. He now talks about SA-Best as a “start-up party” to gloss over its bad result, but it’s hard to see it as a “start-up” with an enduring future. Xenophon dismisses the prospect of a return to the Senate, but it remains to be seen whether his feet will become itchy.

Federal factors were not significant in the change in South Australia. But the outcome has positive implications for Malcolm Turnbull’s government. One of the big arguments between the federal and Weatherill governments was over energy policy, with Weatherill holding out against Canberra’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG). On Sunday, the federal government was welcoming the South Australian result as very good for the future of the NEG.

Another Liberal win at state level, coming after Tasmania, will also be a morale boost, albeit a limited one, for the embattled federal Liberals.

So, Super Saturday had positive spin-offs for both federal leaders, but substantially more for Shorten than Turnbull.</s>PROFILE OF THE VICTORIAN MARGINAL SEAT OF BATMAN

* Named after "founder of Melbourne" John Batman, first proclaimed in 1906

* Held by Labor since 1934, except for three years when the ALP's Sam Benson became an independent in 1966

* By-election was sparked by the resignation of David Feeney amid the dual citizenship saga

* The seat has become increasingly marginal, with growing support for the Greens</s>PROFILE OF THE VICTORIAN MARGINAL SEAT OF BATMAN

* Named after "founder of Melbourne" John Batman, first proclaimed in 1906

* Held by Labor since 1934, except for three years when the ALP's Sam Benson became an independent in 1966

* By-election was sparked by the resignation of David Feeney amid the dual citizenship saga

* The seat has become increasingly marginal, with growing support for the Greens</s>The Experts

SA Election: Will Xenophon be king-maker?

Malcolm Mackerras

Friday, March 09, 2018

Having made near-perfectly-correct predictions for Tasmania’s recent election “Island politics: Spotlight on Tasmania’s election” I am emboldened now to chance my arm on South Australia whose general election will occur on Saint Patrick’s Day, Saturday March 17. I begin by noting that I have already predicted this election result – more than a year ago. In my article “Leadership Shakeup for WA and SA?” (published on Thursday February 9, 2017) I correctly predicted the Labor win in Western Australia and went on to write: “By way of contrast, the opposite will happen in South Australia in March 2018. The Labor government there will be defeated and replaced by a government composed of one party only, the Liberal Party. Labor’s Jay Weatherill will lose the office of Premier to Steven Marshall”.

That, of course, was written long before Nick Xenophon decided to resign from the Senate in order to contest the state seat of Hartley in the SA House of Assembly. So, do I stick to that prediction? Or do I change it, asking to be excused my change of mind by using Xenophon’s decision as my excuse? As explained in detail below I have decided to stick to the prediction that Marshall will be Premier in a majority Liberal government.

In the outgoing lower house, Labor held 24 seats: Ashford, Cheltenham, Colton, Croydon, Elder, Enfield, Fisher, Florey, Giles, Kaurna, Lee, Light, Little Para, Mawson, Napier, Newland, Playford, Port Adelaide, Ramsay, Reynell, Taylor, Torrens, West Torrens and Wright. The Liberal Party held 21 seats: Adelaide, Bragg, Bright, Chaffey, Davenport, Dunstan, Finniss, Flinders, Goyder, Hammond, Hartley, Heysen, Kavel, MacKillop, Mitchell, Morialta, Morphett, Mount Gambier, Schubert, Stuart and Unley.

That left two others, both seats which would normally be won by the Liberal Party. They were Frome, based on Port Pirie, and Waite, in Adelaide’s salubrious southern suburbs. Port Pirie is a Labor town but the surrounding countryside (which is almost entirely to its south) votes solidly Liberal. It would be a Liberal seat except that it has a popular Independent member who won the seat as an Independent but supported the Labor government. Waite is blue-ribbon Liberal but its member, Martin Hamilton-Smith, decided to be a minister in the Labor government. My predictions begin by asserting that both Frome and Waite will be won by the Liberal Party.

The big problem lies with SA Best, Xenophon’s party. However, I chance my arm on saying there will be two such members in the House of Assembly. They will be Xenophon himself in Hartley, taken from the Liberal Party, and one other member in Giles, a gain from Labor. Giles takes in the steel-making city of Whyalla plus a third of South Australia’s area to Whyalla’s west. It is Labor’s only regional seat.

At the general election held on Saturday March 15, 2014, the two-party preferred vote was distributed 53-47 in favour of the Liberal Party, which party lost the election! Due to the obvious unfairness of such a result there has been a redistribution of seats which creates a notional result (on the new boundaries) of 27 Liberals to 20 seats for Labor.

Having studied all the seats and much opinion poll information I now predict these 24 seat will be won by the Liberal Party: Adelaide, Bragg, Chaffey, Colton, Davenport, Dunstan, Elder, Finniss, Flinders, Frome, Gibson, Hammond, Heysen, Kavel, MacKillop, Mawson, Morialta, Morphett, Mount Gambier, Narungga, Schubert, Stuart, Unley and Waite.

The 21 seats I predict will be won by Labor are Badcoe, Black, Cheltenham, Croydon, Elizabeth, Enfield, Florey, Hurtle Vale, Kaurna, King, Lee, Light, Newland, Playford, Port Adelaide, Ramsay, Reynell, Taylor, Torrens, West Torrens and Wright.

If all the above is correct, then Xenophon will be very disappointed – but not devastated. I say that because there are plenty of pundits who think he will not win Hartley. For that seat to be won by the Liberal sitting member or the Labor former member would be devastating for Xenophon. So I do not think it will happen. On the other hand I am not predicting he will be king-maker. Since that is the aim of his quixotic decision to leave the Senate my predicted result, if proven as correct as my Western Australian, Queensland and Tasmanian predicted results, would leave Xenophon very disappointed indeed.

Two by-elections will be held on the SA general election day, March 17. One is very easy to predict. The Liberal Party will retain blue-ribbon Liberal Cottesloe (WA), the seat resigned by the former premier, Colin Barnett, who has retired from politics.

By contrast, Batman (Victoria) is interesting. Once again my prediction is on the record. In my article here (show “Who’s to blame for the citizenship scandal?” in blue) I wrote that “Labor will lose Batman to The Greens at the next election whenever that election is held”. Do I stick to that? I give an affirmative answer. The Greens candidate, Alex Bhathal, will be elected for Batman.

(Malcolm Mackerras is Honorary Fellow of Australian Catholic University. malcolm.mackerras@acu.edu.au)

Published: Friday, March 09, 2018

Disqus</s>South Australia’s election result - which ended Labor’s 16-year rule in favour of the Liberal Party against Nick Xenophon’s "X factor" insurgency - underscored broader-based support for the mainstream. This tendency of a solidifying of the centre was also apparent in the Queensland and Tasmanian state elections where breakaway political movements did less well than might have been anticipated. In Queensland, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell well short of its predicted influence on the result. In Tasmania, the Greens lost a lot of ground. In the South Australian election the Greens vote was also well down. Greens leader Richard di Natale cannot draw much comfort from a continuing slippage in the Greens position electorally.

Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives performed disappointingly in the Senator’s home-state of South Australia, a sign perhaps that protest politics may be ebbing. Batman’s real importance lies in its relevance to internal Labor Party politics and Shorten’s durability. An additional Green in the House of Representatives would not have made a lot of difference arithmetically to a left-right power balance. If Labor had surrendered Batman - a seat it has held with few interruptions since 1910 - Shorten’s leadership critics would have been emboldened. Disquiet, barely contained in any case, would have surfaced. Shorten’s crazy brave - or foolhardy, depending on your point of view – decision, on the eve of a crucial by-election, to place his and Labor’s hand on the electrified “third rail’’ of Australian politics would have been interrogated. This "third rail" refers to pensioner entitlements, including those accruing to retirees under a generous dispensation provided by John Howard and Peter Costello when the country was flush with mining boom tax receipts.

That is clearly no longer the case in a challenging budgetary environment, but if there is a basic rule of politics it is that it is much easier to giveth than taketh away. In light of the push-back from a vociferous, well-funded lobbying demographic – namely seniors - against Labor’s proposed outlawing of “cash-back’’ franking credits I would be surprised if there was not some modification, and/or compensation to middle and lower income retirees. This brings us back to the Batman template and why the electorate is far from representative of Australia more generally, and why Labor would be mistaken to read more into the result than would be justified, leaving aside the Shorten factor. Demographically, Batman residents are better educated than the mean; are younger than the rest of the country on average in a bulge around the 20-49 age bracket; and have higher levels of disposable income. Fewer dwellings are mortgaged than the country’s mean. What this tells you is that Batman’s population is fluid in the sense there is a lot of movement into and out of the electorate among a younger demographic.

The electorate is also significantly more ethnic than other parts of the country. In other words, Batman is atypical. ALP leader Bill Shorten and Labor candidate for Batman Ged Kearney celebrate her federal byelection win. What should also be kept in mind when assessing Batman is that Ged Kearney, the “Ged’’ is short for Gerardine, proved to be a near perfect choice for a Melbourne inner-suburban electorate. One of nine children Kearney was born to a publican family in inner-suburban Richmond. She studied economics at Monash University before dropping out to pursue a nursing qualification. She is a former president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions. Her success in Batman contrasts with Kristina Keneally’s inability to prevail in Bennelong. In an understandable moment of relief on the night, Shorten embraced the Kearney victory, but the successful candidate herself would not need reminding that the Labor’s leader’s right faction stymied her repeated attempts to secure pre-selection for federal seats, including Batman.

 Her relations with Shorten have been testy.</s>The by-election for the federal seat of Batman is marred by a last-minute scandal, with reports elderly voters received phone calls telling them they did not have to vote.

The Greens had been tipped to seize the seat from Labor. (Credit: ABC)

The by-election for the federal seat of Batman was marred by a last-minute scandal on Saturday, with reports elderly voters received phone calls telling them they did not have to vote.

In response, Labor launched a phone call and SMS blitz urging senior voters to attend polling centres.

"We're encouraging all Batman residents to ignore these dirty tricks and exercise their right to vote."

The electorate has a high proportion of elderly voters, who are traditionally more supportive of Labor.

Labor has declared victory in the Batman by-election, upsetting the Greens who were the favourites to win the inner-Melbourne seat and have now conceded defeat.

Former ACTU president Ged Kearney was on track to defeat the Greens' Alex Bhathal, with the ALP winning back voters from the Greens in the southern part of the electorate.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of David Feeney, who was unable to find documents proving he was not a foreign citizen.

The seat in Melbourne's inner-north takes in trendy suburbs such as Northcote and Clifton Hill, and stretches to Preston and Reservoir further north.

It was once a Labor heartland, but gentrification has changed the demographics of the area.

The Greens campaign focused on Queensland's Adani coal mine project and Australia's refugee policies, however Ms Bhathal told ABC radio housing was the number one concern of voters across the electorate.

Her campaign had been marred by internal party leaks, alleging bullying.

Labor's announcement of changes to tax policy and franking credits could hurt Ged Kearney's chances in Batman, where there is a large contingent of senior voters.

The Australian Electoral Commission says more than 16,500 people cast an early vote, with another 14,500 registering for a postal vote.</s>Scandal hits Batman by-election with seniors phoned, told they didn't have to vote

The by-election for the federal seat of Batman was marred by a last-minute scandal on Saturday, with reports elderly voters received phone calls telling them they did not have to vote.

In response, Labor launched a phone call and SMS blitz urging senior voters to attend polling centres.

"We're encouraging all Batman residents to ignore these dirty tricks and exercise their right to vote."

The electorate has a high proportion of elderly voters, who are traditionally more supportive of Labor.

Labor has declared victory in the Batman by-election, upsetting the Greens who were the favourites to win the inner-Melbourne seat and have now conceded defeat.

Former ACTU president Ged Kearney was on track to defeat the Greens' Alex Bhathal, with the ALP winning back voters from the Greens in the southern part of the electorate.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of David Feeney, who was unable to find documents proving he was not a foreign citizen.

The seat in Melbourne's inner-north takes in trendy suburbs such as Northcote and Clifton Hill, and stretches to Preston and Reservoir further north.

It was once a Labor heartland, but gentrification has changed the demographics of the area.

The Greens campaign focused on Queensland's Adani coal mine project and Australia's refugee policies, however Ms Bhathal told ABC radio housing was the number one concern of voters across the electorate.

Her campaign had been marred by internal party leaks, alleging bullying.

Labor's announcement of changes to tax policy and franking credits could hurt Ged Kearney's chances in Batman, where there is a large contingent of senior voters.

The Australian Electoral Commission says more than 16,500 people cast an early vote, with another 14,500 registering for a postal vote.</s>The Liberal party is set to form government in South Australia after 16 years of Labor government, with former federal senator Nick Xenophon failing to make a splash in the state with his SA Best party.



And Labor has come out on top in a bitterly-fought by-election against the Greens in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman.



In South Australia, Liberal leader Steven Marshall will be the new premier, with a projected Liberal victory bringing to an end to 16 years of Labor government in the state.

The ABC has projected the Liberals will win at least 25 seats, one more than the 24 needed to secure a majority government.

South Australian Labor leader Jay Weatherill said on Saturday night he had called Marshall to concede and wished him all the best in taking on the role of premier.

"I am sorry I could not bring home another victory," he told supporters. "I do feel like one of those horses who has won four Melbourne Cups and I think the handicap has caught up to us on this occasion."

Weatherill said being premier had been one of the "great joys" of his life and, smiling, promised his family that he'd be a better husband, son, brother and father.

"We’ll just give you one pledge – we’ll be back," he said.</s>The by-election for the federal seat of Batman is marred by a last-minute scandal, with reports elderly voters received phone calls telling them they did not have to vote.

The Greens had been tipped to seize the seat from Labor. (Credit: ABC)

The by-election for the federal seat of Batman was marred by a last-minute scandal on Saturday, with reports elderly voters received phone calls telling them they did not have to vote.

In response, Labor launched a phone call and SMS blitz urging senior voters to attend polling centres.

"We're encouraging all Batman residents to ignore these dirty tricks and exercise their right to vote."

The electorate has a high proportion of elderly voters, who are traditionally more supportive of Labor.

Labor has declared victory in the Batman by-election, upsetting the Greens who were the favourites to win the inner-Melbourne seat and have now conceded defeat.

Former ACTU president Ged Kearney was on track to defeat the Greens' Alex Bhathal, with the ALP winning back voters from the Greens in the southern part of the electorate.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of David Feeney, who was unable to find documents proving he was not a foreign citizen.

The seat in Melbourne's inner-north takes in trendy suburbs such as Northcote and Clifton Hill, and stretches to Preston and Reservoir further north.

It was once a Labor heartland, but gentrification has changed the demographics of the area.

The Greens campaign focused on Queensland's Adani coal mine project and Australia's refugee policies, however Ms Bhathal told ABC radio housing was the number one concern of voters across the electorate.

Her campaign had been marred by internal party leaks, alleging bullying.

Labor's announcement of changes to tax policy and franking credits could hurt Ged Kearney's chances in Batman, where there is a large contingent of senior voters.

The Australian Electoral Commission says more than 16,500 people cast an early vote, with another 14,500 registering for a postal vote.</s>Welcome to a night of politics.

Not only do we have South Australia deciding the most unpredictable election in recent memory, we also have the good burghers of Batman deciding whether Adam Bandt gets some company on the Greens side of the lower house crossbench.

Both campaigns have been fraught, full of drama and, at least from what the people are telling us, coming down to the wire.

But this is Australian politics, where nothing is certain.

Nick Xenophon has bet his political future on being a state powerbroker, but SA Best, his rebranded party, fumbled in the last few weeks of the campaign and Xenophon himself is no certainty to win the seat of Hartley. Labor have been in power for 16 years, which has been one of the strongest cornerstones of the Liberals’ campaign, as Steven Marshall argued it was beyond time for a change.

Meanwhile, Jay Weatherill has been talking up all of Labor’s successes, including its shift to renewable power sources. Will it be enough? We’ll find out soon enough.

Outside of South Australia, Melbourne has seen the battle of the left, as the Greens and Labor slug it out for the seat of Batman, left vacant by David Feeney’s misplacement of dual citizenship papers.

Ged Kearney’s and Alex Bhathal’s campaign for the seat has almost been the side-show to party infighting and policy disputes. The polls tell us the Greens are on track for a historic win. There is not long to go to see if those polls are correct.

So join us as we indulge in what looks set to be a night of political upsets. Which is basically like political Christmas to us political livers.

Katharine Murphy is watching all the events and we have Calla Wahlquist, Ben Raue and Max Opray in the field.

Comments will be turned on from 7pm, but you can find me on twitter in the meantime - @amyremeikis.

Grab your drink of choice, settle in and get ready with the refresh button - polls are about to close.
Australian voters in South Australia, the Melbourne division of Batman, and the Perth electoral district of Cottesloe go to the polls in three separate elections.