The recent deadly assaults in Kabul and Kandahar show that the Afghan Taliban have managed to sustain the power to attack and create fear at will.

Despite the 15-year war, the Afghan Taliban still appear to be an active player in Afghanistan. The mere presence of the Taliban, notwithstanding the death of their prominent leadership, suggests that they have the strength to survive and give a tough time to the fragile coalition government in Kabul.

Though the Afghan government primarily blames Pakistan for the Taliban’s sponsorship, it is a widely acknowledged fact that external powers – such as Iran, Russia and Qatar – have also established links with the Taliban. Iran’s intelligence influence has remarkably increased among the Taliban field commanders of southern Afghanistan. Some insiders even claim that Russia and Iran’s influence has overshadowed Pakistan’s influence in the Taliban circle. Though Kandahar’s police chief has pinned the blame for the recent deadly bombing that killed five UAE diplomats on the Haqqani Network, he also acknowledged the support Iran and Russia have provided to the Taliban. The internal weaknesses of the Afghan government and their own external links have raised the Taliban’s morale and enhanced their striking capabilities.

However, it is believed that the Taliban cannot regain Kabul to establish their orthodox rule. There are many reasons for this. First, though the US and Nato have withdrawn from Afghanistan, they have continued to maintain a formidable presence in the shape of drones and base camps. The Afghan army on the ground and the US drones and jets in the air have made it impossible for the Taliban to occupy even a single province for a sustained period of time. The short-term occupation and quick withdrawal of the Taliban from Kunduz reflects their inability to rule any part of Afghanistan.

Second, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) has become a victim of internal weaknesses and leadership problems. Mullah Haibatullah, the current chief of the Afghan Taliban, is unable to keep a stronghold on the Taliban like Mullah Umar and Mullah Akhtar Mansour did. Being one of the founding and charismatic leaders of the Taliban Movement, Mullah Umar had won the emotional attachment and affection of the Taliban.

Similarly, Mullah Mansour had led the Taliban in the field and had established a close working relationship with field commanders. Mullah Haibatullah lacks both these qualities. He is a religious scholar who lacks both charismatic leadership as well as field experience. At the same time, he has no effective contacts or communication with the field commanders.

In addition, there is a huge difference between the approaches of the Taliban’s political shura and field commanders. The field commanders insist on continuing to fight while the political shura is willing to reconcile with the Afghan government. These conflicting approaches have put the Taliban leadership in a dilemma. If it accepts the approach adopted by the field commanders, reconciliation with the Afghan government will become impossible. However, if it opts for reconciliation and ignores the field commanders, an internal revolt within the Taliban will become imminent.

Third, the Taliban’s audacity and assaults may have spiked to a remarkable degree, public support for the Taliban’s cause in Afghan society is rapidly shrinking. Earlier, due to the presence of the US and Nato on Afghan soil, the public showed widespread support to the Taliban. The indiscriminate killings, night raids and acts of collateral damage by foreign troops pushed the people towards the Taliban camp.

Many people considered Hamid Karzai to be a puppet of the US and viewed the Taliban as liberators who were fighting against the invaders. However, with the withdrawal of foreign troops, the Taliban lost this support. The public is now unwilling to support the Taliban’s fight against the Afghan army and police. Instead, they now consider the Afghan Taliban to be agents of the external powers. In addition, the indiscriminate killing of civilians in suicide bombings and target killings orchestrated by the Taliban have created a wave of fear and insecurity and fuelled hatred against them.

Besides the fear factor, the changing nature of Afghan society has also created anti-Taliban sentiments. Over the last 15 years, Afghan society has fundamentally changed. The vibrant media –with more than three dozen TV channels, 174 radio stations and hundreds of newspapers and journals – has played a critical role in building awareness among the people. The easy accessible electronic and social media and the availability of smartphones have contributed immensely to the transformation of Afghan society. As a result, the new generation is aware of its surroundings and conscious of its rights and duties.

Ashraf Ghani has inducted young talent into the bureaucracy to change governance patterns and public perceptions. Well-educated Afghans, who have returned from the West and are serving the country in various capacities, have also inspired the new generation. Western restaurants have also been opened in big cities and have introduced a new culture and lifestyle. Music concerts are regularly held in many large cities of Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s cricket team has also starting playing on the international level.

All these factors have changed the ground realities and reduced the space for the Taliban to rule. Afghan society will never want to go back to the era of 1994-2001 when the Taliban reigned supreme. The external powers will also never let this happen. Ignoring the ground realities, the Afghan Taliban still harbour the illusion of regaining Kabul. They have failed to recognise the new realities and change their perceptions accordingly. However, their perceptions about Pakistan have fundamentally changed.

This article is part of the writer’s ‘Afghanistan’ series.

The Taliban factor was posted in Opinion of TheNews International - https://www.thenews.com.pk on February 04, 2017 and was last updated on February 04, 2017. This news story is related to Print/183841-The-Taliban-factor/ - breaking news, latest news, pakistan ne. Permanent link to the news story "The Taliban factor" is https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/183841-The-Taliban-factor.</s>At least eight Afghan security force members have been killed by the Taliban in the northwestern province of Faryab, a police spokesman said on February 3.

Spokesman Abdul Karim Youresh said the attackers killed four police officers and four members of a local defense force aiding police at a checkpoint in the Almar district during the night.

All of the victims belonged to one family.

Youresh said the Taliban carried out the attack with the help of one of the men posted at the security station. He said that the man was associated with the Taliban but had recently pretended to have left the militant group.

He said the man, a relative of the commander in charge of the station, had been allowed to join the security force after tribal elders gave guarantees on his behalf.

Meanwhile, Gul Agha Roohani, chief of police in eastern Nangarhar Province, said that 12 suspected Islamic State militants were killed when they attacked security posts in the district of Kot early on February 3. Roohani said one police officer was also killed.

Separately, provincial Governor Mohammad Alias Wahdat said an unknown gunman fatally shot a cleric and his wife in eastern Paktyka Province on February 2 in the Yusof Khail district.



Police said there were no immediate claims of responsibility.

Based on reporting by dpa and AP</s>Afghan forces claim to have repulsed a Taliban attack on a district in Helmand province. The attack on Garmsir district Thursday night lasted until early Friday morning.

 

 Omar Zawak, the provincial governor’s spokesman, said 16 insurgents were killed and nine were wounded. Local district officials told VOA that 11 Afghan security forces personnel also were killed and 18 others, including 10 members of the Afghan National Army, were wounded.

Fighting continued in Sangin district, which had been under a coordinated Taliban offensive since Monday. The Taliban detonated explosives in a tunnel near a military compound that is surrounded by civilian houses. They overran dozens of security outposts and killed dozens of Afghan security personnel in the intense fighting that ensued.

In the last 72 hours, U.S. forces have conducted approximately 25 airstrikes in and around the Sangin District Center. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) has reinforced Sangin with additional troops and has recovered some of the checkpoints. The ANDSF continues to secure Sangin.

Regarding Garmsir, the ANDSF successfully defended the town with its own assets and retains control of the district center.

Helmand, the largest of 34 Afghan provinces, has seen the fiercest fighting during the last 15 years of war. Most of the province is under Taliban control, with the government only holding the provincial capital, Lashkar Gah, and a few surrounding district centers.

 

 According to the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the Taliban control eight of Helmand’s 14 districts.

 

 Helmand is Afghanistan’s largest poppy-growing province and provides the lifeblood for the Taliban insurgency. The Taliban earn $1.2 billion annually from taxing poppy farmers nationwide according to the French news agency AFP.

 

 An AFP report from Helmand last year described how farmers, who used to grow one poppy harvest a year, now grow up to three in one year with genetically modified seeds from China.

The United States has announced it would deploy a new group of about 300 troops to Helmand to help Afghan forces beat back the Taliban during the upcoming spring fighting season.

Afghan security forces also repulsed another attack in the Kot district of Nangarhar province carried out by Islamic State fighters. Twelve IS fighters were reportedly killed but official sources say five security personnel also died.

In its most recent quarterly report to the U.S. Congress, SIGAR warned that the Afghan government is losing territory to the Taliban and now controls less than 60 percent of the country.</s>AT Monitoring Desk-KABUL: At least eight policemen who were members of one family were cowardly killed by the Taliban insurgents in Faryab province, local official said on Friday

Almar district governor, Mohammad Saleh Saleh told TOLOnews that the deceased police forces members include a father, his two sons, his two son-in-laws and his three nephew.

“The policemen were poisoned first and then were shot dead by the Taliban insurgents,” he said.The incident took place in Gard Marshkar village in the district.

According to media report, the attacker, who is a resident of Almar district, was surrendered to the police force 15 days ago.

This is not the first incident of its nature, as the Taliban insurgents carried such “cowardly attacks” several time in the past. It indicates that the Taliban insurgent has lost influence to battle face-to-fact with security forces. The Afghan security forces repelled the spring offensive of the Taliban insurgents very effectively, which is a big blow to the group. Taliban and other militant outfits would never win war as they are at the wrong path. Afghan security forces have been fighting all form of insurgency with high moral.</s>Eight police officers, all members of the same family, were killed in northern Afghanistan on Friday after a colleague working with the Taliban drugged and shot them at a checkpoint, police and government officials said.

No group claimed responsibility for the deadly attack but a spokesman for Faryab provincial police told AFP the suspected assailant had "fled back to the Taliban".

The victims, four regular police and four auxiliary officers, "were drugged by their colleague who then opened fire on them at a police checkpoint in the Almar district" of Faryab province, provincial police spokesman Abul Karim Yoresh told AFP.

District governor Saleh Saleh confirmed that all eight of the police officers were members of the same family.

Local media reported that the suspected assailant police officer had joined the Taliban a year ago.

A similar incident happened in September when two Afghan soldiers opened fire on their sleeping colleagues in their barracks in the northern province of Kunduz.

On Wednesday the US government's Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said in a report that the death rate among Afghan troops and police soared last year as the Kabul government's overall control of the country declined significantly.</s>ISLAMABAD — Officials in northwestern Afghanistan say a suspected Taliban insurgent has killed at least eight police personnel just days after surrendering and joining the force.

The overnight massacre took place at a security outpost in the Almar district in the province of Faryab.

Area police spokesman Karim Yorosh told VOA Friday the gunman took all the weapons and ammunition before fleeing the post. The victims mostly belonged to the same family, he added.

The Taliban fighter reportedly had surrendered to the local police force 15 days ago and returned to the insurgent ranks after carrying out the attack.

District Governor Mohammad Saleh Saleh told TOLO TV the killer poisoned the security men before shooting them.

An insurgent who surrenders and promises to quit violence before a local tribal council, or jirga, is allowed to stay in his village or work for security forces. Kabul’s official reconciliation policy also encourages insurgents to quit violence and become part of national politics and institutions.

The Taliban is active in several districts of Faryab and recently launched a major assault on the provincial capital, Maimana, to try to capture it. But Afghan security forces defeated the attempt, forcing insurgents to retreat to their nearby sanctuaries.

Afghan security forces suffered a record number of casualties while battling the Taliban last year. They lost around 7,000 personnel while more than 11,000 were wounded, according to the U.S. military.
• Afghan Provincial Governor Confident US Marines Will Help Contain Taliban
• U.S. Won’t Let Afghanistan To Become Safe Haven For Terrorists</s>At least five people were killed on Sunday when Taliban gunmen attacked a courthouse in eastern Afghanistan, an attack the insurgent group said was in retaliation for the government execution of six militants in May.

Two attackers opened fire at an appeals court in Pul-e Alam in Logar province, just south of the Afghan capital city of Kabul, according to the province's deputy police chief Nesar Ahmad Abdul Rahimzai.

Among the five killed in the attack was the newly named head of the appeals court, Rahimzai said.

The gunmen injured at least 19 other people before being killed by security forces, he added.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, with spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid saying it was in response to the government's execution of six Taliban prisoners in early May.

The executions followed a deadly attack in Kabul that killed at least 64 people, prompting President Ashraf Ghani to declare that the "time of unjustified amnesty" for insurgents was over.</s>A top Afghan government official said on Sunday it was likely that Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansour was killed in a U.S. air strike.

"Last night, American officials informed the Afghan government and it is very likely that he is killed. As soon as we get more information we will inform our people," said Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah.

U.S. officials in Washington said on Saturday U.S. missile-firing drones had attacked Mansour and probably killed him in a strike in southwest Pakistan, near the Afghan border, authorized by U.S. President Barack Obama.</s>In recent days, Taliban forces launched attacks on the Sangin district centre, an outpost in Helmand province repeatedly threatened by militants over the past year.

"Taliban insurgents attacked our security outposts on Sunday but faced fierce resistance from Afghan forces and were pushed back," said Omar Zwak, a spokesman for the provincial governor.

Dozens of militants were killed in the fighting, including the Taliban's shadow district governor in Sangin, Mawlawi Agha, Zwak said.

A Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousef Ahmad, said his fighters had captured the district centre but Afghan and U.S. military officials rejected that.

U.S. warplanes had conducted at least two air strikes in the 24 hours up to Wednesday afternoon in support of Afghan troops, but officials declined to provide additional details on the fighting.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on a visit to Afghanistan last week that U.S. forces would have greater freedom to strike at the Taliban under broad new powers approved last month by President Barack Obama.

Sangin is in a strategic area for the lucrative opium trade, which provides funding for the Taliban, as well as other strongmen.

The district centre is a small, government-controlled enclave in an area otherwise largely dominated by the Taliban, who have increased their stranglehold on the district over the past year.

Fighting intensified in Afghanistan after the Taliban announced the start of their annual warm-season offensive in April, but it tailed off during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ended early this month.</s>It was the first time that an American military official has publicly voiced doubts that U.S. President Barack Obama will realize a key foreign policy goal of bringing the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table after years of war before he leaves office in January.

Last week, the Afghan Taliban selected Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada as their new leader after the United States killed their former chief, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, in a drone strike in Pakistan.

"I don't believe that we will see peace talks any time in the short-term with Mullah Haibatullah," U.S. Army Brigadier General Charles Cleveland, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said in a media briefing.

U.S. officials say that the hardline Akhundzada has little incentive to negotiate, with the Taliban making steady battlefield gains against Afghan security forces and the Obama administration still aiming to withdraw more U.S. forces from Afghanistan.

While the Pakistani military, widely regarded as the Afghan Taliban's patron, publicly supports peace talks, it has done little to bring the insurgents to the negotiating table, the U.S. officials and independent experts say.

The U.S. State Department has publicly said it still supports Afghanistan in ending the conflict through a peace and reconciliation process with the Taliban.

Akhundzada, however, has vowed, in an audio recording, that there will be no return to peace talks.

Cleveland said that while Akhundzada was "not really a military guy, and really not a money guy," he should not be underestimated.

The general added that while he was not optimistic about senior Taliban leaders joining negotiations, there is hope that lower level Taliban members would engage in talks.

The Quadrilateral Coordination Group, made up of officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China, has been trying to facilitate direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

Last month, the group held its fifth meeting, but the Afghan government declined to send a delegation, and the Taliban have not attended any of the sessions.
According to Afghan Police, eight of their forces have been killed by the Taliban at a checkpoint in Faryab Province.