Leaders make last-gasp push for every undecided vote in Braddon and Longman • Super Saturday elections: Shorten passes test as Labor wins ‘four from four’

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten hit the hustings in Tasmania on Saturday morning for a last-minute blitz as voters headed to the polls for five byelections in four states that will set the course for federal politics for the remainder of 2018.

With backroom strategists saying the critical contests in the marginal seats of Braddon and Longman were too close to call, the federal Labor leader bookended Saturday by campaigning in Queensland as the major parties pushed for every undecided vote.

Despite earlier signs the Liberal party could end a 98-year drought of governments winning seats from oppositions at byelections, polls were pointing to Labor retaining the knife-edge seats of Longman and Braddon, while comfortably hanging on to Perth and Fremantle.

Super Saturday byelection guide – five seats go to the polls Read more

“Let’s be fair dinkum about it, Labor should be miles ahead,” Turnbull told reporters in Braddon, saying the ALP had run a dishonest campaign on health funding and other issues.

“What that tells you is that many (people) ... are disgusted and appalled by Labor’s lies. They really are.”

Shorten, however, was underplaying the latest Newspoll figures, published in Saturday’s Weekend Australia.

“Labor started these campaigns well behind,” he told reporters in Devonport where he was campaigning with candidate Justine Keay.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Labor party candidate for Perth, Patrick Gorman, casts his vote along with his wife Jessica and son Leo at Highgate primary school on Saturday. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

“Anyone who tells you they know what’s happening is having a lend of you.”

The latest Newspoll puts the two-party preferred figure in Longman and Braddon at 51-49 in Labor’s favour.

The Newspoll found Labor’s primary vote would have risen five points to 45% in Longman if Anthony Albanese was leader rather than Shorten.



In Braddon, the figure was 47%.



In two-party terms, this would translate to a comfortable lead of 55-45 to Labor in both seats.

Shorten dodged direct questions on his future if Labor lost any of the byelections saying the message would be “we didn’t get enough votes. Beyond that, let’s not give up yet”.

Turnbull, who was also in Devonport, took another swipe at candidates who caused the byelections because of dual citizenship issues.

“They’ve got candidates who sat in parliament for months drawing parliamentary salaries at public expense when they knew they were not entitled to be there and now they are running again the same lies they ran in 2016,” he said.

Labor has poured resources into Longman in the closing week of the contest, with a substantial television and radio advertising buy that has made the Liberals anxious. The ALP also secured a late endorsement from Queensland Catholic schools over school funding, and activists were reporting more positive sentiment at pre-poll over the closing days.



While the Coalition is hopeful of engineering an upset in Longman or Braddon – a development that would boost internal morale, rattle the opposition and put Shorten’s leadership under pressure – the Liberals have written off their chances in the South Australian seat of Mayo.

The Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is widely expected to retain her seat despite a challenge from star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the electorate from 1984 to 2008.

Given their weak political position in Western Australia, the Liberals did not contest the two seats up for grabs in Western Australia, Fremantle and Perth, in order to stockpile resources for the federal campaign and minimise any negative political fallout for Turnbull.

No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%.

Historically, byelections triggered by MPs with constitutional issues have attracted something of a sympathy vote for the incumbents, but given the spate of contests triggered over the past 12 months, both sides suggest voter fatigue and resentment has ticked up.

The national focal point on Saturday night will be the result of the contests in Longman and Braddon. The outcome in the two seats is complicated by what is expected to be a substantial protest vote.

Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/SRARYpj85C

The independent Craig Garland is tipped to be kingmaker in the Tasmanian electorate of Braddon, with the major parties anticipating he could pick up a substantial chunk of the vote – and One Nation’s support in Longman also seems to have held up despite the absence of Pauline Hanson on an overseas holiday, and questions about its candidate Matthew Stephens and his business dealings.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley (centre) talk to a voter in Devonport, Tasmania on Saturday. Photograph: Sarah Rhodes/AAP

Labor grabbed Longman at the last federal election with the help of One Nation preferences, but it is possible that Labor could improve its primary vote in Longman in Saturday’s contest but lose the seat if the preference flows from One Nation benefit the Liberal candidate, Trevor Ruthenberg.

Major party strategists regard the One Nation vote as not directable, which means voters do not necessarily follow how-to-vote cards, which increases the degree of difficulty in predicting results.

Underscoring the closeness of the contests, Turnbull in the closing days of the byelections has emphasised the importance of a first preference vote for the government’s candidates in Longman and Braddon.

Turnbull spent Friday on the ground in Longman. Shorten was absent from the hustings to spend time with his daughter.

The contests, triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, have dragged on for 11 weeks, draining party resources and voter patience. Shorten has made eight visits to Longman and Turnbull has been to Queensland five times.

</s>West Australians in the federal electorates of Perth and Fremantle are encouraged to cast their vote this "Super Saturday" amid concern turnout could plunge to a record low.

In the first 10 days of pre-polling, early votes for Perth were down 41 per cent on the same time during the 2016 federal election.

In Fremantle, 3200 early votes were cast by Saturday, down 35 per cent compared to the general poll just over two years ago.

But with the Liberals not even bothering to contest the federal seats, publicity surrounding the campaigns has been thin.

"I'm concerned that pre-poll voting is low," Labor's candidate for Perth Patrick Gorman told reporters on Friday.

Mr Gorman is expected to easily win the seat, which was held by lawyer Tim Hammond , who resigned for family reasons, with a margin of 3.3 per cent.

The Perth by-election is the only one of the five Super Saturday polls not being held because of the dual citizenship fiasco,.

The party is tipped to win Fremantle even more convincingly with Josh Wilson, the port city's former deputy mayor who held the seat previously with a 7.5 per cent margin but had to resign over his dual citizenship.

Perth has previously been held by major Labor names including Stephen Smith and Alannah MacTiernan, while even bigger party greats such as Kim Beazley senior and former prime minster John Curtin held Fremantle.</s>Labor is certain to win two of Super Saturday's five by-elections - Perth and Fremantle - as the focus and fight remains on three seats in the east - Longman, Braddon and Mayo.

The Liberal party decided against contesting Perth and Fremantle, leaving it clear for the Labor candidates to almost certainly win but raising concerns of a poor voter turnout.

Fremantle Labor candidate Josh Wilson, who forced the by-election when he had to quit over dual citizenship issues - hopes to improve the 41 per cent primary vote he secured at the last federal election.

"I certainly had people who identified as Liberal voters saying that they weren't sure what to do," he said on Saturday.

"I sympathised with them, I pointed out the fact that I've been a very hard working local member in the past, that I've grown up in this community, that I haven't got horns, that maybe they need to make an exception and it will be our secret."</s>VOTERS in the former-blue ribbon seat of Mayo will have the chance to return the electorate to the Liberal fold at Saturday’s by-election.

But candidate Georgina Downer would need to discredit consecutive polls to take the seat from Centre Alliance MP-turned-candidate Rebekha Sharkie. Voting booths in the seat centred on the Adelaide Hills are now open, in one of the five Super Saturday by-elections mostly forced by the dual citizenship fiasco.

The by-election was triggered after Ms Sharkie - who won Mayo for the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016 - became caught up in the dual citizenship saga and was forced to resign.

She was the first non-Liberal to hold the seat since its 1984 creation and is hoping to repeat the result.

Her opponent, Ms Downer, is the daughter of Howard government foreign minister Alexander, who held the seat for the Liberal Party for 24 years. A recent poll in The Advertiser put her ahead 59-41 on a two-party basis while a ReachTEL poll of more than 700 voters returned a similar result on Wednesday night.

Despite the stark result, neither candidate has been willing to give weight to the poll.

“My intention is to be successful tomorrow and, of course, run next year for re- election as the member for Mayo,” Ms Downer said.

“I expected this would be a difficult campaign but it’s been a really fantastic time out here in Mayo and I’ve had a great reception in the community.” Ms Sharkie, the clear favourite, denied she was in a “unlosable position”. “I am so nervous here today,” she told reporters on Friday.

“The poll that counts is the poll (on Saturday).” Counting will start after polling closes at 6pm local time.

Rebekah Sharkie says she’s both nervous and hopeful of being returned to federal parliament as the member for Mayo with voting underway in Saturday’s by- election.

The Central Alliance MP-turned-candidate joined her parents at Mt Torrens, in the Adelaide HIlls, casting the first ballot at now-closed Lutheran school in the town.

She says while it’s been a long campaign, she and her team have done all they could and she wouldn’t change a thing.

“This has been a wonderful way to bring my community together,” she said. “My team of volunteers, we’ve given this everything we possibly can. “You can only be hopeful. You can only be optimistic but ultimately we’ll know the result at the end of today.” Ms Sharkie first won Mayo from the Liberals in 2016 but was forced to resign when caught up in the dual citizenship saga.

Opinion polls have her well in front of Liberal candidate Georgina Downer despite Ms Downer enjoying strong support in recent weeks from a string of high- profile party figures, including two visits from Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and one from former PM John Howard.

She is also the daughter of former foreign minister Alexander who held Mayo for 24 years from 1984, though the family connection may have played against her in the end.

Ms Downer also battled criticism that she was something of a blow-in after spending most of the past 20 years living interstate or overseas. Ms Sharkie played up her own local credentials as someone deeply involved in the area for many years.

“I love my community. That is why I put my hand up two years ago. That is why I put a second mortgage on our house two year ago,” she said.

“People said that was crazy but I just felt I had to do it.” Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull urged Mayo residents to vote for Ms Downer, who he said had run a campaign in tough circumstances.

“The message in Mayo is very clear that Rebekha Sharkie - she is not a Labor candidate but most of the time she votes for the Labor Party,” he said while campaigning in Tasmania.

Counting will start in Mayo after polling closes at 6pm local time. - AAP</s>State and local government are working on a new Perth Water Precinct Plan</s>Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek is confident speculation around Bill Shorten's leadership will dissipate after strong results in the Super Saturday by-elections. (AAP Video)

SO MUCH for the odium of sitting in Parliament under what Malcolm Turnbull calls “false pretences”.

The six MPs recently dumped from the House of Representatives because of dual citizenship have been returned to Parliament by costly special elections.

In fact they have — and will in the near future — come back to great acclaim, not sneered at as time and money wasters who had breached the Constitution through incompetence.

Taxpayers have been left the bill. Another hangover will be the question: Are expensive by-elections the best response to MP ineligibility?

The answer to that question in a democracy such as ours is simple. It’s: Yes.

If a member of the House of Representatives is disqualified from sitting in Parliament, the voters in their electorate must be given an opportunity to replace them or bring them back should the constitutional hindrance be overcome.

The process is different in the Senate but is based on the same principle. A countback decides the new senator.

The message from recent history is that voters are not deeply bothered by breaches of constitutional requirements.

The members who couldn’t work out if they were constitutionally qualified to sit in Parliament appear to have escaped long-term repercussions.

They might have had to endure the tension and effort of a by-election — and the two and a half month campaign to Saturday was a big one — but the record shows this amounted to a career interruption, not a career killer.

One reason could be that voters see those constitutional requirements as obscure technicalities, and they might even be angry they are enforced.

That was no doubt the case in October, 1996, when Liberal Jackie Kellie had to recontest her Sydney seat of Lindsay. She had been found ineligible because she had been in an office of profit under the Crown when she nominated for the March general election.

She was in the RAAF at the time, and voters, with some justification, thought her removal was absurd.

So she was re-elected with close to 50 per cent of the primary vote.

And in New England many voters though it ridiculous that son of the local soil Barnaby Joyce was considered a Kiwi.

He might have been angry at having to reapply for his own job, but other factors inflicted much greater harm on Mr Joyce’s career.

Liberal John Alexander in Bennelong and Nationals’ Mr Joyce were greeted like conquering heroes by the Government benches when they returned, re-endorsed by voters, early this year.

The same will happen when Parliament resumes in a few weeks. This time the triumphant comeback kids will be Labor’s Susan Lamb (Longman), Josh Wilson (Fremantle), Justine Keay (Braddon), and the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo).

Labor will lift the elegant and lofty House of Representatives roof when they are sworn in, even if just to taunt the Government benches who will have no one to welcome back.

Despite the conclusions from history, Prime Minister Turnbull believed at least one by-election candidate should have been punished for her dual-citizenship gaffe.

“Now, a vote for Justine Keay does not only reward somebody who has been taking a parliamentary salary for months and months under false pretences, when she knew she was not eligible — and Bill Shorten knew she was not eligible,” he said in Braddon on Saturday.

But as in other cases, the voters had things other than the Constitution in mind and weren’t in a punishing electoral mood.
Five separate by-elections are held for five seats in the Australian House of Representatives, namely Braddon, Fremantle, Longman, Mayo and Perth, four of which were triggered by the dual citizenship crisis.