North Korea isn’t your regular totalitarian dictatorship. Yes, it has an appalling human rights record, corruption and poverty are rife, and there is no political or economic freedom to speak of. Yet a couple of chilling characteristics set it apart: a nuclear weapons program and an unpredictable young leader. Whether Kim Jong Un’s military is capable of an effective nuclear strike is open to question. But the Asian country’s aggressive rhetoric and regular missile tests, in defiance of United Nations resolutions, are vexing the international community and pressuring China, North Korea’s only major ally, to rein in its errant neighbor. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to deal with Kim’s regime “very strongly,” saying all options — including military ones — are on the table.

Kim opened 2018 on an optimistic note by calling for peace talks with South Korea. His remarks followed a year of escalating tensions in which North Korea accelerated its weapons and missile program and declared its nuclear force complete. It test-fired long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles and said the entire U.S. was now in range; it fired missiles over Japan; it threatened the U.S. territory of Guam; and it carried out its sixth nuclear test, detonating what it said was a hydrogen bomb that could be fitted onto an ICBM. The UN Security Council approved tougher sanctions against North Korea in August and again in December, while Trump imposed further U.S. measures. The rhetoric toughened markedly, with Kim’s regime saying it would make the U.S. “pay dearly” for the sanctions and Trump threatening to unleash “fire and fury.” Some military analysts upgraded their assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability, with one study concluding the country had successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles. While Trump repeatedly criticized China for failing to do enough to pressure the Pyongyang government, the Chinese suspended critical coal purchases while pushing for peace talks. Over objections from China, the U.S. deployed a defense system in South Korea designed to take out North Korean missiles aimed at the south. The border between the two Koreas is lined with hundreds of thousands of troops.

North Korea has a track record of escalating and then lowering tensions to win diplomatic and economic benefits. In the 1990s, it removed spent fuel rods from its nuclear reactor, a possible prelude for use in weapons, before former U.S. President Jimmy Carter brokered a deal freezing its program in exchange for help in building a civilian nuclear-energy program. After North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, multinational disarmament talks produced another agreement to close nuclear facilities, this time in exchange for food and energy assistance. North Korea has since exited the talks and restarted its nuclear program. The country has been on a war footing since its creation in 1948, following decades of Japanese occupation. Its founder, Kim Il Sung, grandfather of the current leader, invaded South Korea to start the 1950-53 Korean War. Believed to be in his early 30s, the Western-educated Kim Jong Un has carried out the majority of his country’s nuclear tests while railing about America’s “reckless moves” toward a war. North Korea, which is thought to have six to 20 nuclear warheads, describes its weapons as a “precious sword of justice” against invaders and points out the demise of Iraqi and Libyan regimes after they gave up on nuclear arms. Some 1.3 million of North Korea’s 25 million people are in the active military, with reservists numbering 7.6 million. Weapons aren’t the only concern: A 2014 UN inquiry accused the regime of human rights abuses on a scale unparalleled in the contemporary world.

Neither the carrot approach (aid and energy in return for concessions) nor stick (international sanctions and military exercises) has produced more than a temporary halt to North Korea’s nuclear program. China, North Korea’s biggest trade partner and supplier of most of its food and energy, could do more to make sanctions effective, according to some critics. For its part, China fears a collapse of the Pyongyang government might prompt an influx of millions of refugees and — in the event of South Korea absorbing its neighbor — create a well-armed U.S. ally straddling its border. A pre-emptive military strike might succeed in taking out North Korea’s known nuclear and missile sites, but the country has too many facilities spread out over too much terrain to destroy simultaneously. Even if North Korea reacted only with conventional weapons, its response, and South Korea’s counterattack, could produce enormous casualties. Other options include tightening economic sanctions or awaiting the downfall of the Kim dynasty, whether through Kim Jong Un’s ill health or political infighting. Kim has executed senior advisers including his uncle and one-time guardian, raising concerns about his temperament and the absence of considered counsel. His half-brother was murdered in Malaysia in February 2017. Some analysts warn that a collapsing North Korea with nuclear weapons would be more dangerous than a stable North Korea with nuclear arms.

To contact the writers of this QuickTake: Sam Kim in Seoul at skim609@bloomberg.net, Kanga Kong in Seoul at kkong50@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this QuickTake: Grant Clark at gclark@bloomberg.net.</s>UNITED NATIONS/SEOUL: The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, warned North Korea on Tuesday against staging another missile test and said Washington would not take any talks between North and South Korea seriously if they did not do something to get Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

Haley told reporters the United States was hearing reports that North Korea might be preparing to fire another missile.

"I hope that doesn't happen. But if it does, we must bring even tougher measures to bear against the North Korean regime," Haley said.

South Korea on Tuesday offered talks with North Korea next week, amid a tense standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programmes, after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year's Day speech that he was "open to dialogue" with Seoul.

Kim also said he was open to the possibility of North Korean athletes taking part in Winter Olympics South Korea hosts next month.

At the same time, he stressed that his country would push ahead with "mass producing" nuclear warheads in defiance of U.N. sanctions and that he had a nuclear button on his desk capable of launching missiles at the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Kim in a Twitter post on Tuesday: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"

Haley said the United States would not take talks seriously if they did not take steps toward banning North Korea's nuclear weapons.

"North Korea can talk to anyone they want, but the U.S. is not going to recognise it or acknowledge it until they agree to ban the nuclear weapons that they have," she said.

Haley gave no details of the missile test preparations.

Another U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there were indications that could point toward a potential missile launch “sooner rather than later,” but cautioned that such signs had been seen in the past and no test had resulted.

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said North Korea might be "trying to drive a wedge of some sort" between the United States and South Korea and added that while it was up to Seoul to decide who it talked to: "We are very skeptical of Kim Jong Un's sincerity in sitting down and having talks."

Trump, who has led a global drive to pressure North Korea through sanctions to give up development of nuclear-tipped missiles capable of hitting the United States, earlier held back judgment on Pyongyang's offer to talk, saying on Twitter:

"Rocket man now wants to talk to South Korea for first time. "Perhaps that is good news, perhaps not - we will see!"

Trump has frequently derided Kim as "rocket man." The U.S. president said sanctions and other pressures were starting to have a big impact on North Korea.

Kim and Trump have exchanged fiery barbs in the last year and the U.S. president has warned that the United States would have no choice but to "totally destroy" North Korea if forced to defend itself or its allies.

North Korea regularly threatens to destroy the United States, South Korea and Japan and tested its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile in November, which it said was capable of delivering a warhead anywhere in the United States.

South Korea's Unification Minister Cho Myong-gyon said the offer for high-level talks next Tuesday had been discussed with the United States. Nauert said she was not aware if the matter had been discussed in advance of the South Korean response.

Cho suggested the talks be held at the border village of Panmunjom and said they should be focused on North Korea's participation at the Olympics, but other issues would likely arise, including the denuclearisation of North Korea.

"I repeat: The government is open to talking with North Korea, regardless of time, location and form," Cho said.

Should the talks be held, it would be the first such dialogue since a vice-ministerial meeting in December 2015.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's New Year address and asked his government to move as quickly as possible to bring North Korea to the Olympics, but he stressed that an improvement in inter-Korean relations "cannot go separately with resolving North Korea's nuclear programme".

China, which has persistently urged a return to talks to ease tensions, said recent positive comments from North and South Korea were a good thing.

"China welcomes and supports North Korea and South Korea taking earnest efforts to treat this as an opportunity to improve mutual relations, promote the alleviation of the situation on the Korean peninsula and realize denuclearisation on the peninsula," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.</s>The Latest on North Korea’s decision to restore a key cross-border communication channel with rival South Korea (all times local):

South Korea says it is welcoming North Korea’s decision to restore a key cross-border communication channel.

The South’s Unification Ministry said Wednesday it will try to use the communication channel at the border village of Panmunjom to discuss its offer to hold high-level talks on how to cooperate with the North during next month’s Winter Olympics in the South.

Seoul on Tuesday proposed the rivals meet at Panmunjom on Jan. 9, but Pyongyang hasn’t responded to its offer.

The North’s decision to restore the Panmunjom communication channel was announced by a senior Pyongyang official who appeared on state TV and said the decision was made by leader Kim Jong Un.</s>Seoul, South Korea (CNN) North Korea has accepted South Korea's proposal for official talks in what will be the first high-level contact between the two countries in more than two years.

South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Baik Tae-hyun told reporters Friday that North Korea informed Seoul by fax that it has accepted the offer to initiate talks.

The person-to-person talks will be held Tuesday -- the day after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's birthday -- at the Peace House in the village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone, Baik said.

The two sides agreed to work on the details of the talks "through the exchange of documents," Baik said, adding that agenda items will be "issues related to improving inter-Korean relationships, including the Pyeongchang Olympic Games."

A statement from the International Olympic Committee said it welcomes talks aimed at having North Korean athletes compete in next month's Winter Games in South Korea.

The IOC said it was continuing discussions with the North Korean National Olympic Committee and keeping its invitation open for a delegation.

North Korean figure skaters Ryom Tae-Ok and Kim Ju-Sik have qualified for the Pyeongchang Olympics.

Two North Korean athletes, figure skaters Ryom Tae-Ok and Kim Ju-sik, have qualified for the Games. While Pyongyang has missed a registration deadline for the two, the IOC could allow an exception to be made.

The faxed message accepting the long-standing offer of talks was from Ri Son-kwon, chairman of the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland. It was addressed to South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-Gyon, Baik said.

Baik said the decision of who would attend the meetings was still being finalized.

The last such high-level talk was a deputy ministerial meeting in December 2015 at the jointly run Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea.

The complex, which opened in 2004 in a rare show of cooperation between the two Koreas, was shuttered last year as Pyongyang ramped up its missile and nuclear testing.

Possible thaw

The announcement of talks comes on the heels of other signs of rapprochement between the two rivals.

At least five calls have been placed through the cross-border channel since then, according to the South Korean Unification Ministry. In what's widely regarded as a diplomatic breakthrough, a hotline between Seoul and Pyongyang rang again in recent days after going unused for two years.At least five calls have been placed through the cross-border channel since then, according to the South Korean Unification Ministry.

Contact between the countries has resumed since the North Korean leader expressed hope during his New Year's Day address that a North Korean delegation might participate in the Winter Games.

Kim also expressed a desire for a peaceful resolution to the decades-old conflict with South Korea. The Korean War ended in an armistice in 1953, meaning the two nations technically have been at war since then.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in told CNN last year that North Korean participation in the Pyeongchang Olympics would "provide a very good opportunity for inter-Korean peace and reconciliation."

Russia to US: Don't undermine talks

A top Russian official welcomed the restoration of communication and urged the United States to avoid making threatening statements that could undermine talks.

according to "We are pleased to note the readiness of Seoul and Pyongyang to have direct contacts," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Friday,according to Russian state-run news agency TASS.

Calling the new developments "a step in the right direction," Ryabkov said, "The hotline is a useful and important tool for de-escalation in unforeseen circumstances." He said Russia will work with all players to help improve the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula.

"In this situation, other participants in this drama should be extremely cautious, balanced and restrained in statements and assessments so as not to undermine such a fragile chance for some more or less stable political process," he said. "Accordingly, statements of a threatening nature, signals, even if not from officials but from politicians, still have an impact on the situation."

JUST WATCHED White House defends Trump's nuclear taunting Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH White House defends Trump's nuclear taunting 01:58

Stronger hand

The advanced stage of North Korea's weapons program could afford its leadership the luxury of diplomacy, said Tong Zhao, a North Korea analyst and fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.

"I think Kim Jong Un is now (in) a different position after the Hwasong-15 (long-range missile) testing. At a minimum, North Korea has achieved a rudimentary strategic deterrent and can afford to not continue testing. ... North Korea apparently has plans to mass-produce missiles and nuclear warheads but could (now) consider a moratorium on ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) tests."

Zhao said he views the resumption of talks as a positive sign and considers next week's meeting to be a first step in improving bilateral relations.

"After Kim Jong Un made the overture in his New Year address, the two sides quickly resumed the hotline and agreed to meet -- the pace of development is very quick," he said.

"There is an indication that North Korea wants to explore broader issues. I expect they will engage in other issues as well (at the talks). ... It's hard to tell how quickly they will settle the Olympic issue, but it's clear that both sides want to go further with these talks."

Differing reaction

A similar sense of optimism has yet to extend beyond the Korean Peninsula.

On Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called North Korea's nuclearization "absolutely unacceptable " and said his country's security situation was the most severe since World War II.

US officials have so far maintained a similarly skeptical stance regarding Kim's sincerity in soothing tensions.

Speaking Tuesday, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, issued a stern warning to North Korea, saying Washington "will never accept a nuclear North Korea."

However, the hard-line US stance may be softening in light of recent developments. In a phone call Thursday, President Donald Trump and Moon agreed not to host joint military drills during the period of the Pyeongchang Olympics, according to a South Korean government statement.

A senior US military official also confirmed to CNN there would be no joint exercises during the Games.

"(Even) if South Korea-North Korea relations improve thanks to the Olympics, the US-South Korea (military) drills will still take place after that, which could still be major reason for turbulence going forward," said Zhao, the North Korea analyst.

Kim has long criticized the US-South Korean drills, declaring them a direct threat to Pyongyang, and a possible barrier to the resumption of diplomatic talks.

The decision to hold off on military drills is a diplomatic response from the US President, who earlier this week bragged in a tweet that his nuclear button was "much bigger & more powerful" than Kim's.

Trump has since sought to take credit for the resumption of communications between Pyongyang and Seoul.

"With all of the failed 'experts' weighing in, does anybody really believe that talks and dialogue would be going on between North and South Korea right now if I wasn't firm, strong and willing to commit our total 'might' against the North," Trump tweeted Thursday morning.

"Fools, but talks are a good thing!" he added.</s>WASHINGTON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said possible talks between North Korea and South Korea held mixed potential, while sanctions were beginning to take a toll on Pyongyang amid tensions over its nuclear and missile programs.

“Sanctions and ‘other’ pressures are beginning to have a big impact on North Korea. Soldiers are dangerously fleeing to South Korea,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter.

“Rocket man now wants to talk to South Korea for first time. Perhaps that is good news, perhaps not - we will see!” Trump added in reference to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (Reporting by Susan Heavey and Kantanga Johnson; Editing by Doina Chiacu)</s>North Korea has shown more determination than ever to accelerate its nuclear programme. It's only a matter of time before it's too late for a diplomatic solution, says Korea Exposé's Steven Borowiec.

SEOUL: Last August, after North Korea tested its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile yet, South Korean President Moon Jae-in warned Pyongyang not to cross a “red line”.

The test launch was a step toward North Korea’s goal of possessing a missile it can mount with a nuclear warhead and strike the US.

Moon did not specify what the consequences of crossing this “red line” might be, but his wording implied that North Korea was nearing a threshold, that years of defying the international community may have brought the rogue state to a point of no return.

The warning was surprising coming from Moon, who had entered the presidency on promises to take an engagement-oriented approach to North Korea.

His comments underscored the growing seriousness with which he was compelled to deal with the issue of North Korea’s nuclear programme, long been a headache for policymakers in South Korea and elsewhere but in 2017, acquired a new level of urgency.

As far as we know, North Korea has not yet crossed the red line that Moon was referring to, meaning that the country has not yet demonstrated the ability to reach major American cities with a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Nevertheless, in 2017, North Korea’s progress toward this objective has changed the calculus regarding the threat posed by Pyongyang, creating a level of alarm that is unprecedented.

THREAT NOW MORE SERIOUS

North Korea has long been a threat to neighbouring South Korea and Japan. But it is the US that has long been a focal point of North Korean propaganda, and Pyongyang has talked, mostly in abstract terms, about causing destruction to the US.

These threats against the US became more credible in 2017 and it is now a matter of when, not if, North Korea will be capable of carrying out a nuclear attack on US soil. While in San Francisco, Seoul and Tokyo, there is still no need to stockpile supplies and hunker down for war, the situation is more serious than it once was.

North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, and in recent years has stepped up the frequency with which it conducts such tests. With this increased testing, North Korea has demonstrated the growing sophistication of its arsenal.

The reason developing this capability of striking the US has taken so long is that it requires North Korea to master a set of challenging technologies.

To reach the US, the nuclear warhead has to be small and light enough to be mounted on a missile while not altering the missile’s flight path. Also, the missile needs to be able to exit and re-enter earth’s atmosphere, which requires withstanding tremendous levels of heat.

Given how poor North Korea is, how limited by international sanctions it is and how little access its scientists have to outside technology, this has taken longer there than it would in most countries motivated to do so.

But since leader Kim Jong Un took power after his father’s death in late 2011, he has increased the frequency of testing. Without experience to lean on, he has staked his legitimacy on nuclear armament.

Another key part of the Pyongyang regime’s legitimacy is its claim to be the rightful ruler of the Korean race, most of whom live in South Korea. There is growing chatter among Pyongyang watchers and officials in Washington that North Korea will eventually launch efforts to unify the Korean peninsula, forcibly if needed.

I still think this is unlikely, as North Korea is too rational to start a war they know they can’t win, even if they are ideologically committed to taking over South Korea.

2018 is therefore likely to be a time of reckoning when it comes to North Korea. There is no reason to expect them to stop this nuclear push any time soon.

The next question is how the main players, particularly the US and South Korea will respond.

2017 saw changes of power in both South Korea and the US, with the two countries inaugurated two starkly different leaders.

Moon is a member of South Korea’s leftist camp, which is known for advocating friendly cooperation with North Korea. He has an understated demeanour that contrasts sharply with Trump’s brash, outspoken style.

Some observers expected the two men to clash when it came time to devise North Korea policy. Moon had earlier said that he hopes to hold a summit with North Korea within his first year as president.

Donald Trump’s election as US president, an untested leader on the world stage, also adds a new variable to the question of how to deal with North Korea.

Recent years have seen cycles of provocations by North Korea that lead to spikes in tensions, but ultimately fade from view with no major conflagration. With Trump in office, it is impossible to predict what he might do or tweet, and if that could upset the fragile balance.

South Korea has since pleased its American allies by taking a hardy approach to dealing with Pyongyang. Since Moon Jae-in came into office, Seoul has enacted two sets of unilateral sanctions.

Aside from North Korea calling the latest UN sanctions an act of war, the problem is that there is little sign that even the strongest sanctions will stop North Korea from pursuing its nuclear goals.

Despite being heavily sanctioned already, the country’s weapons programmes keep developing. Given the breakneck speed at which it has accelerated its testing last year, it is not hard to imagine that in as little as a few months, North Korea could demonstrate that it is capable of striking the US with a nuclear weapon.

Given this level of urgency, the situation requires a diplomatic solution. Sanctions and strongly worded messages of condemnation aren’t enough, and the US refusal to negotiate with North Korea absent verifiable steps toward denuclearisation has gone on too long already.

The situation changed somewhat this week, when the South Korean government proposed holding high-levels inter-Korean talks and North Korea ordered a border hotline to be reopened.

It would therefore be wise for US and South Korea to seize this momentum and immediately put together a team of negotiators with experience dealing with North Korea to hold talks.



Even then, a solution to the impasse is far from assured, but now is the time to try something else. Before the “red line” is really crossed.

Steven Borowiec is the politics editor of Korea Exposé.</s>The two countries, who are technically still at war having only signed an armistice after the Korean War, could even compete as a single nation in next month’s Games. Lee Hee-beom, the Winter Olympics organising chief, previously raised the possibility of the two Koreas forming unified teams in figure skating and ice hockey for the Games to be held in the mountain village of Pyeongchang, just 50 miles (80km) from the inter-Korean border. The two Koreas have competed as a single nation in sports events before, including football and table tennis matches, but have never joined forces for a major event such as the Olympics or the Asian Games. The countries even marched together at the Sydney Olympic Games in 2000 after North and South Korea held their first ever summit, but relations have since soured.

However, Lee, president of the Pyeongchang Organizing Committee for the 2018 Winter Olympic Games, is optimistically proposing the countries join forces for this years event. He has even proposed North Korean athletes enter the south by crossing the heavily armed border between the two countries, which is widely considered one of the most dangerous divides in the world. That would be the first time that North Korean athletes would arrive the South by road, the organiser said. North Korea has not responded to Lee's proposals. North Korea participated in the international multi-sports events hosted by South Korea three times - in 2002, 2003 and 2014.

The news comes after South Korea confirmed communication with North Korea has reopened in what could be the start of a new chapter in the fraught relationship between the two neighbours. The South's Unification Ministry said the two Koreas were communicating via a radio channel at the border village of Panmunjom on Wednesday after Kim Jong-un shocked the world by saying he was “open to dialogue" with Seoul and hoped to send a team to the Winter Olympics, set to be held in Pyeongchang next month. High-level talks have not been held between the two nations since December 2015 after North Korea cut off the communications channel and refused to answer calls, according to officials in Seoul.

South Korea reportedly tries to make contact with the North at least once a day. The North Korean leader began the new year by suggesting he was willing to work to bring an end the tensions on the Korean peninsula and open a dialogue with South Korea. He said: “The Winter Olympic games that will be held soon in the South will be a good opportunity to display the status of the Korean nation and we sincerely wish that the event will be held with good results.”</s>SEOUL
• Pyongyang contacted the authorities in Seoul over a hotline for the first time in about two years, paving the way for a thaw during next month's Winter Olympics, which Pyongyang has offered to take part in.

Officials from both countries spoke several times yesterday to conduct technical checks before agreeing to stop for the day, according to South Korea's Unification Ministry.

Tensions over North Korea's nuclear programme had threatened to hang over the Games in Pyeongchang, a city about 80km from the border dividing the Korean peninsula.

South Korean President Moon Jae In has proposed holding talks on Tuesday at the border village of Panmunjom, which would be the first formal gathering between the two sides since 2015. But the North has yet to respond.

SEE TOP OF THE NEWS</s>North Korea has reopened a closed border hotline with neighbours South Korea that could become a constant line of communication between the countries.

It is believed the phone line has been opened so officials can discuss the prospect of North Korea sending a delegation across the border for the Winter Olympics.

The Games will be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea, in February, and were mentioned by Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s message.

Kim ordered the line, in the truce village Panmunjom, to open at 6.30am on Wednesday.

South Korea’s unification ministry said officials on both sides checked the line and spoke for about 20 minutes after the north made the call.

It comes after South Korea called for high-level discussions over North Korea’s missile and nuclear programmes.

In his New Year address, Kim said he would consider sending officials to the Winter Olympics, but also warned the US he had a nuclear button on his desk.

This prompted Donald Trump to hit back in a tweet reading: ‘Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!’

US officials said they would not take talks between the two countries seriously if they did not contribute to denuclearising North Korea.

The hotline was shut down by North Korea in February 2016 in retaliation against the closure of a border factory town jointly operated by the two Koreas.

Ri Son Gwon, chairman of North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, said the talks would centre around the delegation’s trip to the south.

State news agency KCNA quoted him as saying: ‘We will try to keep close communications with the south Korean side from sincere stand and honest attitude, true to the intention of our supreme leadership, and deal with the practical matters related to the dispatch of our delegation.’

South Korean presidential spokesman Yoon Young-chan said the North’s decision has ‘significant meaning’ because it could lead to constant communication.</s>South Korea Will Take Up North Korea On Its Offer To Hold Diplomatic Talks

South Korea is hoping to hold its first official diplomatic meeting with North Korea in more than two years. NPR's Robert Siegel speaks with Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea at the United States Institute of Peace, about the upcoming meeting and the impact such high talks might have on the United States' relations with both countries.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un used his New Year's address to warn the United States about his country's nuclear weapons but also to offer an olive branch to South Korea. He suggested that the North and South meet for what would be the first official diplomatic meeting in over two years. Well, now South Korea is taking them up on that offer and suggesting a meeting next week in the small border town.

What might the two countries stand to gain from these high-level talks? Well, to get some answers, we're joined now by Frank Aum. He was a senior adviser on North Korea at the Defense Department and now a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Welcome to the program.

FRANK AUM: Thanks for having me.

SIEGEL: How significant is this diplomatic development?

AUM: This is very important. It's a great opportunity for President Moon and South Korea. He has staked his presidency on improving relations with North Korea, and he's made significant efforts during the last year to engage North Korea only to be rebuffed. And I think in recent months, in the lead-up to the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, which will take place in February, President Moon has tried to establish a more peaceful atmosphere. And that means that he wants to engage with North Korea, promote North Korean participation in the Olympics as well as delay the joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises which tend to be an irritant for North Korea.

SIEGEL: But would a meeting in and of itself - would that satisfy President Moon's needs right now, or would the meeting have to produce some progress as well?

AUM: Just having the meeting in and of itself is a big win. It'll give South Korea a chance to meet with North Korea, ask for a guarantee that there's going to be no provocations leading up to and during the Olympics and then maybe even asking for some sort of way to sustain these talks instead of having it just be a one-off.

SIEGEL: Well, how does this look to the people in North Korea? What does President Kim Jong Un want out of this?

AUM: So for the North Korean side, I think it's a little bit more unclear. Kim Jong Un in past New Year's Day addresses has made peaceful overtures to South Korea, so this is nothing new. This has been done before. And in the most recent one, he has asked for a reduction of tensions on the Korean Peninsula as well as a way to ease some of the inner-Korean military confrontations. So that's what Kim Jong Un has explicitly said.

I think the concern is that North Korea is also somehow seeking to create a wedge between South Korea and the United States by asking President Moon or whoever the South Korean representative is to ease up on some of the things like military exercises or economic sanctions that are at the core of U.S. policy towards North Korea.

SIEGEL: How realistic would he be if indeed that's an interest? That is, would the current South Korean leadership accept a more distant relationship with the United States, or is that pretty solid?

AUM: Well, I don't think we should be concerned about this wedge. The U.S.-South Korea alliance it isn't brittle. It's been robust and persistent over the last 60-plus years. We should give a little more credence to our South Korean allies here.

SIEGEL: We haven't heard the word nuclear in this in this conversation yet. In any of these approaches to South Korea from the North, do you think that there is any lessening of the North's commitment to maintain a nuclear program?

AUM: I don't think that issue would come up. North Korea likes to talk about those issues within the U.S.-North Korea forum. So I think, again, the agenda from what I can tell from the New Year's Day address is North Korean participation in the Olympics and then other issues - for example, reunion meetings between separated families between the North and South. That's a constant topic, so that may come up as well.

SIEGEL: Frank Aum, former senior adviser on North Korea at the Defense Department, currently at the U.S. Institute of Peace, thanks for talking with us today.
North Korea accepts South Korea's proposal for official talks, and will meet on January 9 to discuss North Korea's possible involvement with the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. These are the first high-level talks between the Koreas in more than two years.