

US midterms 2018: full live results The votes on 6 November will give US voters their first chance to pass judgment on Donald Trump since he took the White House. Here’s what you need to know about what’s at stake

The key question in these elections is: will Republicans be able to keep control of both chambers of Congress? Just 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and all of the 435 seats in the lower House of Representatives are up for grabs. To take control of the legislative agenda and block Trump's ability to implement his programs, the Democratic party needs to control both houses. With a Senate majority, the Democrats would be able to block cabinet and supreme court appointments. But while they may be able to take the House, clinching the Senate will be much harder. Impeachment, by the way, requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, so would require Republican votes even if the Democrats won every available seat in November.

Can the Republicans keep control of the Senate?

Republicans 51 Democrats 49

51 needed for a majority

Here comes the math: the Grand Old Party (GOP) does have a big advantage over the Democrats in this showdown, because the Democratic party is defending 26 seats (including two independents, who usually vote with them) while the Republicans only have to defend nine.

California has approximately 68 times the population of Wyoming ...

The Senate electoral system is also weighed against the Democrats. Each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, so Wyoming has as many as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor the Republicans. One hopeful note for the Democrats is that Nevada and Arizona are both open races – in which the incumbent senator is not running – and both were only narrowly won by the Republicans in 2012.

Current control of Senate seats up in 2018

Democrat Republican Independent Not electing this year

* Minnesota and Mississippi also hold special elections on 6 November. In these states, two seats are in play

Key race – Arizona

The Senate seat held by Barry Goldwater and John McCain could be picked up by Democrats in 2018. After a tough primary, Republican Martha McSally has been pushed to the right and faces a tough race against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in a state with a growing Latino population and with deep tensions between traditional business oriented Republicans like McCain and hard right Trumpists.

Can the Democrats win control of the House?

Republicans 240 Democrats 195

218 needed for a majority

The Democrats have a much better chance of winning here. Representation in the House is (relatively) proportional to population, and the whole chamber is re-elected every two years. They need a net gain of 23 seats to win a majority. But in the last 50 years they've scored a net gain of that size only twice, in 1974 and in 2006. In the same period the Republicans have made a 23+ net gain only three times, but the most recent was in 2010, in the midterm elections of Barack Obama's first term.

American voters are usually reluctant to eject a sitting representative. So for Democrats, some of their best hopes are in seats where the incumbent is not standing again. The good news for Dems is that a record 39 Republicans – many of whom were anti-Trump – have chosen to bow out instead of contest their seats in November, and some of those are in key swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania.

All House seats up for election (435) Seats not contested by the incumbent (66)

Democrat Republican

Key race – Pennsylvania's 17th district

Democrat Conor Lamb won a shock special election win in March. Now, after court ordered redistricting, he'll face off against Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus in a far more friendly district. However, it's still a district Trump narrowly won. More key races

What about governors’ races?

Each US state has a governor, who is like a local president. Their interactions with the federal government can be significant; they may have a large amount of sway, for instance, over local gun laws or the implementation of health insurance policies. But this year, Democrats think their salience is national because many of them have a veto over redistricting. Remapping of electoral districts happens in the US after every census. The next round will happen in 2022 when the 2020 census results are in. Governors elected this year who serve four-year terms will still be in office then. Democrats are hoping to win office in several swing states that have open races, such as Ohio, Nevada, Michigan and Florida, and thereby prevent gerrymandering that would affect congressional races as far away as to 2032. States electing governors in 2018 Democrat, open Democrat, incumbent standing again Republican, open Republican, incumbent standing Not electing this year

Key race – Florida

African American Democrat Andrew Gillum won an upset victory in the primary, bolstered by heavy financial support from Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge-fund manager. The unabashed progressive will face off against Republican Ron DeSantis, an ardent Trump supporter, in what will be one of the marquee races of the midterms.

Sources

US Senate, US House of Representatives, MIT, Brookings Institute, National Conference of State Legislatures, Federal Electoral Commission, National Governors Association</s>Midterm election voting will be taking place tomorrow on November 6, as the country decides the composition of Congress. The battle is between the Democrat and Republican parties, for the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers of Congress. In the currently Republican heavy House of Representatives, each one of the 435 seats are up for reelection and a further 35 are available in the Senate. This gives the Democrats a chance to flip Congress and grasp a majority for themselves, which could ultimately put a hold on Donald Trump’s powers.

Who will win in the Senate? The Senate race is the less difficult to call of the two Congress chambers, as only 35 seats are up for reelection. This means only a third of the 100 total seats are up for a replacement. Of these seats, 23 Democrat seats are safe from election and 42 Republican seats are safe. Turning over the incumbent Senate majority is an unlikely outcome when Democrats are defending many more seats.

At the moment Republican dominance is reflected in the polls too, as they are higher billed for Senate positions over the Democrats. In order to win control of the Senate, the Democrats will need to capture over 50 seats, making the majority. Pollsters FiveThirtyEight gathered a selection of different polls to forecast the possible composition of the Senate. Their findings pointed towards an 85.6 percent chance of a Republican majority in the Senate come election day. The chances of the Democrats gaining a majority are on 14.4 percent, but chances are also on the party gaining at least two seats from this round of elections.

Who will win in the house of Representatives? The House of Representatives has a full 435 seats up for reelection, meaning the entire composition of the chamber is up for replacement. Either party could claim a majority if they had the power behind them, which should have made the race a close call. Early voting has revealed a massive turnout for the 2018 midterms and this has come in favour of the Democrats. A partnership between USA TODAY and Suffolk University in polling the midterm elections have found large voter turnout is due to Donald Trump’s leadership.</s>Midterm election voting will be taking place tomorrow on November 6, as the country decides the composition of Congress. The battle is between the Democrat and Republican parties, for the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers of Congress. In the currently Republican heavy House of Representatives, each one of the 435 seats are up for reelection and a further 35 are available in the Senate. This gives the Democrats a chance to flip Congress and grasp a majority for themselves, which could ultimately put a hold on Donald Trump’s powers.

Who will win in the Senate? The Senate race is the less difficult to call of the two Congress chambers, as only 35 seats are up for reelection. This means only a third of the 100 total seats are up for a replacement. Of these seats, 23 Democrat seats are safe from election and 42 Republican seats are safe. Turning over the incumbent Senate majority is an unlikely outcome when Democrats are defending many more seats.

At the moment Republican dominance is reflected in the polls too, as they are higher billed for Senate positions over the Democrats. In order to win control of the Senate, the Democrats will need to capture over 50 seats, making the majority. Pollsters FiveThirtyEight gathered a selection of different polls to forecast the possible composition of the Senate. Their findings pointed towards an 85.6 percent chance of a Republican majority in the Senate come election day. The chances of the Democrats gaining a majority are on 14.4 percent, but chances are also on the party gaining at least two seats from this round of elections.

Who will win in the house of Representatives? The House of Representatives has a full 435 seats up for reelection, meaning the entire composition of the chamber is up for replacement. Either party could claim a majority if they had the power behind them, which should have made the race a close call. Early voting has revealed a massive turnout for the 2018 midterms and this has come in favour of the Democrats. A partnership between USA TODAY and Suffolk University in polling the midterm elections have found large voter turnout is due to Donald Trump’s leadership.</s>TXT} Nov 6 (Reuters) - Voters on Tuesday went to the polls in congressional elections for 35 of 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. The Democratic Party needs to pick up two seats to wrest control of the chamber from the Republican Party. The following is a tally of seats that will change parties, based on projections from media outlets and data provider DDHQ. State Winning party Indiana Republican North Dakota Republican Missouri Republican (Reporting by Jason Lange and Michelle Price)</s>What If The Polls Are Wrong Again? 4 Scenarios For What Might Happen In The Elections

Enlarge this image toggle caption Scott Olson/Getty Images Scott Olson/Getty Images

There's a lot that can happen Tuesday, the culmination of a long midterm election campaign that will provide the first nationwide measure of the U.S. electorate since Donald Trump was elected president.

One narrative has become dominant: that Democrats are likely to gain control of the House and Republicans hold the Senate, if not expand their majority there. That narrative is based largely on national polls, and caution should be urged. Pollsters have made a lot of adjustments to hopefully correct what they got wrong in 2016, but they can't tell you precisely who is going to show up to vote.

What's more, there have been far fewer statewide and district-specific surveys than in past midterm elections. And, as it is, there are data both parties can take solace in that buoy their respective cases. So everyone should be prepared for surprises — because there always are some. That's the beauty of campaigns and voting.

Here are four scenarios for how election night might play out and what each could mean.

1. Democrats win the House, and Republicans hold the Senate

This is the most likely outcome, based not just on the polls but also on conversations with strategists in both parties. But they urge caution, because the races in the many districts across the country that are up for grabs are still very close.

How it would happen: Forget the polls; Democrats are favored to take back the House for more reasons than that. There have been a record number of retirements, reducing the built-in advantage incumbents tend to have; record numbers of candidates, especially Democratic women, have run for public office; Democrats won the off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey; they won or fared better than expected in special elections across the country; there was high primary turnout for Democrats in many states; and there is very high early voting turnout.

And just look at how wide the playing field is — Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take back the House, and they are targeting some 80 Republican-held seats. Republicans are competing in just eight held by Democrats. That right there is and has been a huge flashing red light for the GOP. So many of those races are running through the suburbs, where independents and wealthy, college-educated women live, both of which have consistently in polling said they disapproved of the job the president is doing and prefer to vote for a Democrat in their district.

One other overlooked number from the last NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll: Just 54 percent of Republican women who are registered voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting in this election. Compare that with 78 percent of Republican men who are registered voters. And where do a lot of those women live? The suburbs. If GOP women, an important group that Republicans need to bolster them, stay home, that's one way Democrats clean up in the House.

In the Senate, on the other hand, Republicans have a very favorable landscape and are competing in conservative states held by Democrats. The fundamentals favor the GOP in these states, and if Republicans win where they should win, they will hold the Senate.

What it would mean: This would be a huge win for Democrats, as they'd be able to gum up Trump's agenda and begin to investigate his administration, something the GOP has not done very much of. In the Senate, Republicans could still approve federal judges and Trump Supreme Court nominees, but if they want to get any big legislation done they're going to have to negotiate with Democrats in the House, and possibly a Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Democrats feel they need to limit the losses in the Senate. If they can hold Republicans to net even, keeping the Senate at 51-49, or maybe lose a net of one seat, then they will be very happy. They have a much more favorable Senate landscape in 2020 and believe they will be able to take back the Senate then.

2. Republicans hold the House and Senate

This would be a huge win for the GOP.

How it would happen: A record turnout is expected Tuesday — perhaps higher than any time in the past 50 years for a midterm — but, as in 2016, Trump voters would have to dominate. Rural voters would have to turn out at higher-than-expected rates, causing the polls to be wrong (again). Meanwhile, young voters and Latinos would have to stay home. (It is supposed to rain on the East Coast Tuesday, which could depress low-propensity-voter turnout.)

All of those close House races would have to tip Republicans' way, something that's very possible given the conservative lean of those districts and the distrust of the media, purposefully stoked by the president. And who pays for polls for the most part? Big media organizations.

Enlarge this image toggle caption Alex Wong/Getty Images Alex Wong/Getty Images

What it would mean: President Trump and Republicans would step on the gas, validated by an election cycle dominated by negative news coverage and polling that said the GOP had its back against the wall. The Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) would very likely be repealed once and for all. And Trump could set his sights on ousting Attorney General Jeff Sessions and other key figures at the Justice Department, possibly ending the department's investigation of Russia's attack on the 2016 election.

What's more, Trump's strategy of demonizing immigrants would have worked — again. That was rewarded, and what message would that send? He is only going to do more of it between Wednesday and November 2020 when he stands for re-election.

It would also be yet another reckoning for pollsters and media organizations that pay for the surveys. The polls currently show Democrats with a razor-thin, but consistent advantage heading into Election Day. But if the polls are wrong, it should induce more than a shoulder shrug from outlets that conduct them and the news media organizations that report on them.

3. Democrats win both the House and Senate

This is not seen as the likeliest of scenarios, but it's not out of the realm of possibility either. It would very likely mean a massive wave and a massive shift against Trump and Republicans tied to him nationally.

A lot would have to happen, especially in the Senate, for this to happen.

How it would happen: The path for Democrats in the House is through the suburbs, as in Scenario 1. That doesn't change. But for Democrats to pull this off in the Senate, not only would voters have to side with Democratic incumbents in conservative states, but Democratic challengers would have to win in places like Nevada and Arizona, and possibly Tennessee and Texas.

What it would mean: It would be a repudiation of Trump and the Republicans tied to him nationwide. It would have to trigger a degree of soul-searching — in at least some Republican corners.

Trump would be faced with the choice of moderating and working with Democrats or being a lame-duck president starting in January 2019 when a new Democratic Congress is sworn in — as talk ramps up about Democratic 2020 challengers.

4. Overtime

It's very possible control of both the House and Senate will not be clear on election night.

Enlarge this image toggle caption Joe Sohm/Visions of America/UIG via Getty Images Joe Sohm/Visions of America/UIG via Getty Images

How it would happen: There are a half-dozen congressional races in California, for example, that are very close heading into Election Day. It's possible those races are so close they will not be called on election night. They might not be called for days and possibly weeks later, especially because the vote there is counted slowly.

Additionally, early and absentee ballots can get counted slowly and there is growing concern that many voters' absentee and mailed ballots could be rejected. In 2016, to the surprise of many, 319,000 absentee ballots were rejected for one reason or another.

In the Senate, depending on how results from other races shake out, there is the possibility that control is not known on election night or for weeks after. Specifically, it could all come down to Mississippi. There, no candidate is polling above 50 percent heading into Election Day, and if no one gets at least 50 percent, the race heads to a runoff three weeks later.

What it would mean: Imagine a scenario in which Democrats lead 50-49 on Election Day in the Senate, and the eyes of the country — and the deep pockets of out-of-state money — descend on Mississippi. The consequences would be enormous, the rancor pitched and the tension thick.</s>In Mississippi, both Senate seats and all four U.S. House of Representative seats were up for grabs. In total, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for grabs.</s>SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - Voters across America headed to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in the 2018 general election. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for grabs.</s>JACKSON, MS (WLBT) - On Nov. 6, voters across America will head to the polls to cast their ballots in the 2018 general election. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested.</s>Jamaicans living in the United States (US) are upbeat about today’s (November 6) midterm elections and note the importance of exercising their right to vote.

Lurlene Madourie-Matthews, who lives in Connecticut, said that “this is where we call home, and if our vote can make the country better, then we should all do our part to make a positive impact on the economy and well-being of this country”.

She was speaking to JIS News, which is visiting sections of the US as part of the Foreign Press Centers’ International Reporting Tour for the elections.

North Carolina resident Kennesha DaCosta also agreed that it’s important to vote, “because it is your right as a citizen first, and also because it gives you some control as to who will lead and direct the future of the country we live in. Additionally, whoever your vote elects is expected to advocate for your best interest as citizens of this opportunistic country”.

For Tenziah Morris, who is living in New York, the ability to help choose the country’s leaders is very important. “This is our home away from home. We are affected by the tax laws; we work and pay taxes. We need to help in the decision process,” she told JIS News.

Nicholas Gayle, who is also living in New York, noted that it is important to know the candidates and participate in the elections. “Being an immigrant, it’s a privilege to get to vote on issues affecting us and be a voice,” he added.

Florida resident Sonia Gordon said “it is a privilege for us as citizens to vote. It’s for the benefit of our future generations”.

The 2018 midterm elections take place in the middle of President Donald Trump’s first term. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. In addition, 39 state and territorial governorships, as well as numerous other state and local elections, will also be contested.

All these races, whether for a federal, state, or local office, are being administered by the individual state and local governments instead of at the national or federal level.</s>It's now been nearly two years since Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and over 18 months since his first day in office.

Now American voters are once again going back to the ballot for the US midterms.

These will give some clue to the changes in the political landscape in the country, if indeed there have been any.

General consensus is that this will be a clear indicator into how the country has viewed President Donald Trump's first two years in office.

They will take place on Tuesday 6 November.

But what exactly are the midterms and how do they work?

What are the midterm elections?

Midterm elections occur halfway through each four-year presidential term of office, with key seats in both the houses of the United States Congress up for grabs.

Who is being elected?

All 435 seats in the lower chamber House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 upper chamber Senate seats will be at stake.

House of Representatives members serve two-year terms representing the people of a single constituency, while each state has two senators. This year there are a record number of women on the ballot, which could significantly increase the number of women in elected office from a fifth of the 535 seats across both chambers. There are also elections for 36 of the 50 state governors.

There are around 250 million Americans who are eligible to vote, but turnout in midterm elections is typically about 40%.

This is much lower than presidential elections, where turnout has hit around 60% in recent contests.

The elections will mark the first nationwide vote since Russia targeted state election systems in the 2016 US presidential race but federal, state and local officials have sought to reassure the public that their voting systems are secure.

So far, there have been no signs that Russia or any other foreign agency has tried to launch cyber-attacks against voting systems in any state, according to federal authorities.

Why are these elections so important?

Republicans have had control of the House of Representatives since the 2010 midterms during Barack Obama's first term as president.

The Grand Old Party (GOP) also controls the US Senate, with 51 of 100 seats.

But with Mr Trump's first two years in office dividing opinion across the country, Democrats see these elections as a chance to take back control of both chambers of Congress from the Republicans.

This will leave President Trump unable to pass key laws through the houses. In order to take back control of the House, Democrats need to win 23 more seats, a number that many believe is very possible. But while the party only needs two more seats to take control of the Senate, this is likely to be a much tougher challenge for the Democrats.

How close are the elections going to be?

Control of the House of Representatives is expected to be determined by a few dozen districts, many of them in the nation's suburbs, and will offer clues to where Americans stand in 2018 on immigration, guns, healthcare and gender equality in the #MeToo era. But the battle for the 35 Senate seats is expected to favour the Republicans because many of the contests are in states Mr Trump won in 2016.

Democrats' hopes of recapturing the Senate hinge on all 10 of their incumbents winning and on flipping key seats in states such as Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee and Texas.

What is going to happen?

The night could witness a generational change in the US Congress and herald a number of barrier-breaking officeholders.

In New York City, 29-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is expected to become the youngest woman elected to congress while Ayanna Pressley is the favourite to become Massachusetts' first black woman elected to congress. In Michigan, Rashida Tlaib could become the first Muslim woman and first Palestinian-American in Congress. She could be joined by Minnesota's Ilhan Omar, who is also trying to become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress along with the first Somali-American elected to the House.

No matter which way the voting goes, Arizona's Senate race expects to make history. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema could become the first openly bisexual senator and the state's first female senator. If Republican Martha McSally wins, she will become Arizona's first female senator.

What has President Trump being saying?

The US president has staged a number of rallies across the country, and on election day he will be making a series of media appearances. Mr Trump is well known for his candid views expressed on Twitter, so anyone with a close eye on proceedings will be watching his feed.
The United States holds midterm elections for all 435 House seats, for 35 Senate seats (including two special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi), for 39 state and territorial governorships, and for numerous state and local races.