MIAMI -- Warm ocean waters could fuel an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, while storm-suppressing El Nino conditions are expected to be scarce, U.S. government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. Two to four hurricanes are expected to be "major" with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Forecasters expect warmer-than-average waters across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker-than-average wind shear and a weak or nonexistent El Nino, said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.

El Nino is the natural warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide and tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Warm waters feed a hurricane's strength, while strong wind shear can starve it and pull a storm apart.

While climate models show considerable uncertainty, "there's a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year," Friedman said.

The long-term season averages are 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major ones. Tropical storms have sustained winds of at least 39 mph, and hurricanes have winds of at least 74 mph.

A new weather satellite will help forecasters see developing storms in greater detail, especially when it moves later this year into a permanent position over the East Coast with a view over the continental U.S. and tropical waters where hurricanes form, Freidman said.

"Its 'lightning mapper' allows us to see lightning in the clouds like we've never seen before," he said.

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High-resolution hurricane model upgrades also are expected to provide "much improved" forecast guidance this year, said Mary Erickson, deputy director of the National Weather Service.

Officials urged coastal residents to make evacuation plans and stock up on emergency supplies long before any tropical weather advisory is posted.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is adding advisories highlighting specific storm hazards: Storm surge watches and warnings will be issued when U.S. communities are at risk for life-threatening flooding. The "uncertainty cone" showing a storm's projected path will be updated to show how far damaging winds can reach. An experimental "time of arrival" graphic will show people when tropical storm-force winds are expected to start hitting their areas.

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"Key data will be available earlier than ever to make informed decisions," said Robert Fenton, acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The six-month Atlantic storm season officially starts June 1.

A rare April tropical storm formed this year over the open ocean: Arlene, which was no threat to land. The next tropical storm will be named Bret.

The 2016 hurricane season also started early with a January hurricane. It was the first above-normal season since 2012, with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Five storms made landfall in the U.S. last year, including hurricanes Hermine and Matthew.</s>U.S. government forecasters expect warm ocean waters will fuel an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. Two to four hurricanes could be “major” with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Acting NOAA Administrator Ben Friedman says atmospheric conditions suppressing hurricane development could be weak or non-existent this year over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

The six-month Atlantic storm season officially starts June 1. A rare April tropical storm formed this year over the open ocean.

National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson says high-resolution hurricane model upgrades should provide “much improved” forecast guidance this year.

Friedman says a new weather satellite will help forecasters see developing storms in greater detail.</s>If forecasters are correct and there are warmer-than-average waters in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and weak El Niño conditions this summer, the 2017 hurricane season could be an active one.

"There's a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year," acting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator Ben Friedman told The Associated Press Thursday. NOAA's forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms and five to nine hurricanes, with two to four expected to be major; the long-term season averages 12 named storms and six hurricanes, with three major ones. Tropical storms are classified as having sustained winds of at least 39 mph, while hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 74 mph. The Atlantic storm seasons lasts six months, and will officially start on June 1.

Friedman told AP a new weather satellite that will move into a permanent position over the East Coast later this year will give forecasters a better view of the continental U.S. and tropical waters where hurricanes form. They will be able to watch storms as they develop and "see lightning in the clouds like we've never seen before," Friedman said. Catherine Garcia</s>The Atlantic ocean could see another above-average hurricane season this year, with 11-17 big storms and as many as nine hurricanes, US forecasters said Thursday.

The expected absence of El Nino, an ocean warming trend that tends to reduce the likelihood of hurricanes, is a major reason for the expected rise in number of storms.

Other factors include above-average sea surface temperatures and weaker vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes.

"The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

"Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms," said NOAA, referring to tropical storms with winds of 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour) or higher.

Five to nine of those storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

Two to four hurricanes are expected to be "major," meaning Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more.

Already, the eastern Atlantic has seen a rare, pre-season storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed in the eastern Atlantic in April.</s>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with between 11 and 17 named storms.

NOAA is giving a 45 percent probability for an above-normal season, with a 35 percent probability for a near-normal hurricane season and a 20 percent probability for a below-normal season.

Between five to nine hurricanes are predicted, along with two to four major hurricanes.

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

"The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.</s>COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts a busy 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with 5 to 9 hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Friday. The season officially begins next Thursday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, 2 to 4 could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.



 Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year.

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 So far this year, one tropical storm has already formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which spun harmlessly in the middle of the ocean in April. The next few named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

Last month, the meteorologists at Colorado State University estimated 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts back in the 1980s.

The Weather Channel predicts an average season, with a total of 12 named storms expected to form, of which six will become hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast 10 named storms, five of which are projected to become hurricanes.

This is the 25th anniversary of Andrew, which tore into South Florida on Aug. 24, 1992.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 14 to 20 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

One weak eastern Pacific tropical storm, Adrian, has already spun up earlier this month.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

The central Pacific outlook calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. These are the storms that can sometimes affect Hawaii.</s>The Atlantic hurricane season could see between two and four major hurricanes in 2017, according to the latest forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. There's only a 20 percent chance that this season will be less active than normal, the agency says.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, but one named storm, Arlene, already hit land last month. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it expects between 11 and 17 named storms (with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher), and from five to nine hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) this season.

"The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active since 2012 with 15 named storms," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The Atlantic season runs through Nov. 1. Toward the end of the 2016 hurricane season, a powerful storm, Hurricane Matthew, reached Category 5 status and brought destruction and flooding to an area that ranged from Haiti to the Carolinas and beyond.

NOAA says that in its 2017 forecast, it's expecting a weak or nonexistent El Nino and near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, among other factors.

There's still "considerable uncertainty" about conditions this season, the agency says, a point illustrated by comparable predictions for an above-normal season (45 percent) and a near-normal season (35 percent).

In the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins, NOAA predicts an 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season for both regions.

Here's the list of 21 names that will be given to strong storms this year (the list is managed by the World Meteorological Organization):</s>
• Have a family discussion about what you will do, where you will go and how you will communicate with each other when a storm threatens.
• Tune into your local news or download the FEMA app to get alerts.

Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. NOAA forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April."The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Warmer sea surface temperatures also tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season."Regardless of how many storms develop this year, it only takes one to disrupt our lives," said acting FEMA administrator Robert J. Fenton, Jr., who recommended the following preparedness steps:The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.NOAA will update this outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.</s>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the Atlantic could see an "above-normal" hurricane season this year. That could mean more named storms.

For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters with NOAA predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.

Last year produced 5 land-falling storms, including Matthew that caused $10 billion in damage and killed 34 people in the U.S. and 551 in the Caribbean. It was one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record.

 

 "As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. "These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government."

 

 “The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

A weak or non-existent El Nino may account for the above-normal season.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.

“NOAA’s broad range of expertise and resources support the nation with strong science and service before, during and after each storm to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy as we continue building a Weather-Ready Nation,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “From our expert modelers to our dedicated forecasters and brave crews of our hurricane hunters, we’ll be here to warn the nation every step of the way this hurricane season.”</s>This year could bring above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, with potential for up to nine tropical storms that will become hurricanes – and as many as four could be considered major.

The new predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are based on a non-existent El Nino, as the presence of the climate pattern is known to suppress these storms in the Atlantic.

Forecasters say the hurricane season, from June 1 through November 30, has a 45 percent chance of above-normal activity, and a 70 percent chance of seeing 11 to 17 named storms.

Without an El Nino event this year, forecasters say hurricane activity will likely be higher than normal. In the Atlantic, this means: In the eastern and central Pacific:
• 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity
• 70 percent chance of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones in central Pacific, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s just a 35 percent chance that this hurricane season will be ‘near-normal,’ and far less likelihood (20%) that activity will be below-normal.

‘The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,’ said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The scientists are predicting 11-17 named tropical storms, meaning winds will be blowing at 39 miles per hour or higher.

Of this batch, they expect 5-9 to become hurricanes, bringing 74 mph or higher winds.

And, 2-4 of these could become major hurricanes, at category 3, 4, or 5 – meaning winds of 111 mph or higher.

‘The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active season since 2012, with 15 named storms,’ according to Bell.

‘We don’t forecast how many storms might make landfall, because this far in advance, we really can’t predict what atmospheric conditions will be in place to steer the individual storms.’

In April, a rare pre-season storm dubbed ‘Arlene’ formed over the eastern Atlantic.

And, the World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms.

After Arlene, the list includes 20 additional names, from Bret to Whitney.

HOW STORMS GET THEIR NAMES Long before the adoption of a naming system by the World Meteorological Organization, hurricanes in the West Indies were named for the particular saint’s day on which they occurred. In 1953, the US began using only female names for storms. But, the practice ended in 1978, when men’s names were added to the list as well. The WMO uses a strict naming procedure created by an international committee, according to the NOAA. Hurricanes in the Atlantic are named based on a list that rotates every six years. But, if a storm is particularly catastrophic, that particular name is ‘retired,’ meaning it is removed from the list. The 2017 list, for example, will not appear again until 2023. The World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms, as seen above. Arlene occurred in April, in a rare pre-season event

The NOAA researchers say the forecast will be updated in early August ahead of the season’s peak, for more accurate predictions.

They’ve also included an outlook for hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins: an 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity is expected.

This could bring 14-20 named storms, with 6-11 expected to become hurricanes, and 3-7 with potential to become major.

The central Pacific has a 70 percent chance of seeing 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says warm ocean waters could fuel an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms with five to nine hurricanes, warmer-than-average waters across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a weak or nonexistent El Niño.