Residents of Iraq's Kurdish region cast their votes today in a controversial independence referendum seen as a way to signal the ethnic minority's desire for self-determination, despite strong opposition from regional and international powers.

The historic poll, which is nonbinding, took place in three northern Kurdish provinces of Iraq, as well as in disputed areas such as the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

Kirkuk was essentially under the control of the Iraqi government before it was seized by ISIS three years ago, NPR's Jane Arraf reports. But it was Kurdish forces that wrested control of the city from ISIS fighters. "It's a very controversial thing, holding the vote at this time, in this place," Jane says.

Turnout reportedly was high. More than an hour before polls closed, the Kurdish Rudaw TV station said that at least 73 percent of eligible voters had taken part in the poll.

Kurds are relatively autonomous in Iraq — as Jane has reported, they "control the land borders with neighboring countries, elect their own parliament, maintain their own security forces (known as the peshmerga) and draft their own laws."

The Kurdish region's president, Masoud Barzani, said the night before the vote that "we are ready to pay any price for our independence," according to The Associated Press.

Israel is the only country that has supported the vote, Jane reported. France has said it won't stand in opposition. And the U.S. and some of Iraq's powerful neighbors are strongly against it:



"Iran and Turkey have warned the Kurds not to go ahead with the vote. The U.S. wants to avoid the prospect of another conflict between Baghdad and the Kurdish government while they are still fighting ISIS. After 2003, Kurdish leaders agreed to an Iraqi constitution that calls for negotiations over disputed areas, so holding the referendum in Kirkuk and other cities now is seen as provocative. "Iraq's neighbors are worried that a Kurdish state would encourage their own Kurdish populations to try to break away."



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkish military exercises were happening near the Iraqi border and added that "our military is not (there) for nothing," the AP reported.

On Saturday, according to the wire service, "Turkey's parliament met in an extraordinary session to extend a mandate allowing Turkey's military to send troops over its southern border if developments in Iraq and Syria are perceived as national security threats."

One polling station that Jane visited in Kirkuk today is in an area primarily home to Arabs and Turkmen. However, she said "almost every voter who has come in here ... has been Kurdish. The Turkmen and the Arabs are basically boycotting this vote."

Rudaw reports that after the polls close, a curfew will be imposed in Kirkuk.

Even though the vote is nonbinding, the Kurdish leadership sees it as a way to send a signal to Baghdad about the region's desire for independence. "The Kurds are hoping that Iraq will reopen talks," Jane said. "Iraq has made clear that it's not going to do that, so they might actually be heading into quite a dangerous stalemate."

Reuters reports that "final results were expected within 72 hours."</s>DUBAI/ISTANBUL: Iranian forces have launched war games in an area near the border with Iraq's Kurdistan region, Iran's state media reported on Sunday, a day before a Kurdish independence referendum in the region.

Turkey also said on Sunday its aircraft launched airstrikes against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in northern Iraq's Gara region on Saturday after spotting militants preparing to attack Turkish military outposts on the border.

Iraq's powerful neighbours, Iran and Turkey, strongly oppose the Kurdish vote as they fear could fuel separatism among their own Kurds. Iran also supports Shi'ite groups who have been ruling or holding key security and government positions in Iraq since the 2003 U.S-led invasion which toppled Saddam Hussein.

The Kurdistan Regional Government has resisted calls by the United Nations, the United States and Britain to delay the referendum who fear it could further destabilize the region.

Iranian State broadcaster IRIB said military drills, part of annual events held in Iran to mark the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, are centred in the Oshnavieh border region. The war games will include artillery, armoured and airborne units, it said.

Clashes with Iranian Kurdish militant groups based in Iraq are fairly common in the border area.

On Saturday, Turkish warplanes destroyed gun positions, caves and shelters used by PKK militants, a military statement in Ankara said. Turkey's air force frequently carries out such air strikes against the PKK in northern Iraq, where its commanders are based.

Turkey's parliament voted on Saturday to extend by a year a mandate authorising the deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq and Syria.

The PKK launched an insurgency in 1984. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict. It is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

The U.S. embassy in Iraq cautioned its citizens that there may be unrest during a referendum, especially in territories disputed between the KRG and the central government like the multi-ethnic oil-rich region of Kirkuk.

Three Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were killed and five wounded on Saturday when an explosive device blew up near their vehicle south Kirkuk, security sources said.

The explosion happened in Daquq, a region bordering Islamic State-held areas, the sources said.

Islamic State's ''caliphate'' effectively collapsed in July, when a U.S.-backed Iraqi offensive, in which the Peshmerga took part, captured their stronghold Mosul, in northern Iraq.

The group continues to control a pocket west of Kirkuk and a stretch alongside the Syrian border and inside Syria.</s>America's most reliable ally in the fight against ISIS wants its own country.

This long-held ambition could take one step closer to becoming reality Monday when Iraqi Kurds are scheduled to vote in a historic independence referendum.

Experts say the result will almost certainly be a resounding "yes" — but what that will actually mean in reality is still unclear.

For the Kurds, the vote presents an opportunity to finally break away from Iraq.

"We have the right to choose our destiny and fulfill our dream," Dallo Mohammed, a 32-year-old accountant from the town of Khanaqin, told NBC News. "I am a Kurdish citizen, this is how I was born, and this is how I would die."

For opponents of the vote — a list of countries that includes the U.S. — they say the ballot could provoke destabilization, ethnic violence, and hamper the fight against ISIS.

Who are the Kurds?

They are the world's largest ethnic group who occupy one geographical area but don't have their own country.

They are mostly Sunni Muslims and their estimated population of 35 million spans a huge mountainous region across Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Armenia.

They were given hope of their own nation after World War I when the 1920 Treaty of Sevres carved up the Ottoman Empire and eked out a proposed state for Kurdistan.

Disagreements and subsequent treaties meant that never happened.

Today, depending on which country they find themselves in, the Kurds are subject to a complex web of adversaries, allegiances and internal divisions.

In Turkey and Iran, they face discrimination and their organizations have been blacklisted as terrorists. In Iraq and Syria, however, they have proved among the most effective fighters pushing back ISIS, and they have received the backing of the Pentagon in both arenas.

While the situation in Syria is far more messy, in Iraq the Kurds have established their own semi-autonomous region. Iraqi Kurdistan is an oil-rich province that encompasses one-third of the country and has emerged as the most secure area in an otherwise chaotic state.

What is the vote about?

Monday's referendum will ask people whether they want to expand this autonomy and become a fully fledged, independent country.

"They see this as a once-in-a-century opportunity to begin the process of forming their own state," said Gareth Stansfield, a senior associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.

The Kurds have threatened to break off from the rest of Iraq for years.

They accuse the central government of violating its constitutional obligations toward them and withholding their share of the federal budget.

"From World War I until now, we are not a part of Iraq," Kurdish President Masoud Barzani told the Guardian on Friday. "It’s a theocratic, sectarian state. We have our geography, land and culture. We have our own language. We refuse to be subordinates."

Right now may be their best shot at independence thanks to a confluence of events — namely the weakening of political systems surrounding them following two decades of violence and the rise of ISIS in 2014.

But even in the event of a "yes" vote, the government says it won't separate right away. Rather, it sees the vote more as a statement of intent, a springboard from which to launch dialogue with the central Iraqi government.

The vote will cover not only areas in the official, semi-autonomous region but also disputed regions where the Kurdish forces, known as the peshmerga, have pushed into following their largely successful campaign against ISIS.

These peshmerga — whose name means "those who face death" — have been fighting alongside the Iraqi army in the U.S.-led coalition, but it is the Kurds who have proved the far more effective fighting force.

What does Iraq think about all this?

The central government in Baghdad has rejected the referendum as illegal and unconstitutional. Its Supreme Court has officially suspended the ballot — not that the Kurds are listening — and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has threatened military action if the vote leads to violence.

Some Arab Iraqis, such as 44-year-old electrician Ali Hameed, believe the vote will bring more uncertainty to what is already a perilously fractious region.

"This will create more problems for them," said Hameed, who spoke to NBC News in his home city of Baghdad. "Iran and Turkey will sooner or later have a reason to invade northern Iraq, and we know the Kurds do not have capabilities to fight" a war against those countries.

The prospect of violence doesn't deter Mohammed Ali, a 36-year-old Kurdish pharmacist from Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. He told NBC News his people would be prepared to stand up for their beliefs in the event of a military flare-up.

"The only thing I am afraid of is that if the government in Baghdad tried to stand in our way," he said. "This might be the cause of a civil war between the Kurds and Arabs. The Kurds will fight for this, they will fight for their rights."

Nechirvan Barzani, the Iraqi Kurdish prime minister and nephew of the president, has dismissed the possibility of violence. He told Kurdish network Rudaw: "I do not see any military attack at all on the Kurdistan Region. It is impossible to happen."

How about other neighboring countries?

There has been enormous outside pressure on the Iraqi Kurds to postpone the vote or cancel it entirely.

Turkey and Iran issued a joint statement with Iraq saying they were considering deploying "countermeasures," although they didn't say what these might be.

Both countries are worried that an independence vote might inspire an upsurge in separatism among their own Kurdish populations.

Turkey has for years been locked in conflict with the Marxist militant separatist Kurdistan Workers Party, commonly known as the PKK, and it has also been fighting the Kurds in Syria, who it sees as an extension of its own rebels.

To get an idea of how truly complex this picture is, the U.S. is a NATO ally of Turkey, but the Pentagon is also arming the Syrian Kurds, even though Turkey and the Kurds have been fighting each other.

In Iraq, Turkey's relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government is more nuanced. Whereas Turkey opposes its own Kurds, it has forged strong military and economic ties with those in Iraq. Crucially these ties involve a pipeline that runs from landlocked Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

This has led some to suggest that while Turkey doesn't want to openly support the referendum,in private it might see it as a positive step in its pragmatic and transactional relationship.

"Turkey could have easily stopped [the referendum] in its tracks simply by threatening to close the oil pipeline for extended periods of routine maintenance," Stansfield wrote in a paper for RUSI earlier this month.

"This has not happened," he said. "This raises the possibility that the Kurdish view may be right — that Turkey is publicly positioning itself to be unsupportive ... but privately sees several benefits in embracing independence."

What about the U.S.?

Although the Department of Defense has found the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds to be a ruthless anti-ISIS force, this has not translated to White House support for independence.

"The United States strongly opposes the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s referendum on independence," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Wednesday.

The U.S. sees the possibility of a fracturing Iraq as a destabilizing force in an already unsettled region politically — not to mention hampering the ongoing fight against ISIS.

"The costs of proceeding with the referendum are high for all Iraqis, including Kurds," Nauert added. "Already the referendum has negatively affected ... coordination to dislodge ISIS from its remaining areas of control in Iraq."

Many Kurds don't see it that way. They see a country that, referendum or not, is already flawed and has not worked in their interests for decades.

"The region is already not stable," said Omar Khoshnau, a 38-year-old salesman from Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. "The war against ISIS is going to be more effective if Kurdistan is an independent state, because it is an ally for the international community, and we are the first who fought ISIS."

What would a "yes" vote mean?

A nod for independence would be no doubt symbolic but its practical implications are harder to pin down.

The referendum question asks: "Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state?"

But it has no formal framework or mechanism for how this might work. Instead, the president has said the decision will be the trigger for meaningful dialogue with Baghdad.

According to Marianna Charountaki, a lecturer in Kurdish politics at the University of Leicester, the vote is mainly figurative anyway.

"The reality is that there's already de facto independence and now we're just talking about the outward appearance and official titles," she said.

There are many sticking points, however, namely the disputed areas that the peshmerga have pushed into after the Iraqi Army fled ISIS. These include the key, oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds seized in 2014 after the Iraqi Army fled from the jihadis.</s>Huawei drops a lawsuit against the US after its seized equipment...

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read more</s>TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard launched a military exercise Sunday in its northwestern Kurdish region just ahead of Iraqi Kurds voting in an independence referendum, in a sign of Tehran's concerns over the vote.

Iran also closed its airspace Sunday to flights taking off from Iraq's Kurdish region following an Iraqi request, "due to the ineffectiveness of our political efforts and the insistence of Kurdistan authorities to hold a referendum."

Iraq's Kurds are set to vote Monday in a referendum on support for independence. The Kurds are likely to approve the referendum, but the non-binding vote is not expected to result in any formal declaration of independence.

The Guard, a paramilitary force answerable only to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on its website that airborne and missile units would take part in the exercise. State television aired footage of explosions and smoke rising as part of the drill, in the mountains of Iran's own Kurdish region.

"We are holding a drill here," Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the Guard's ground forces, said in the footage. "God willing, artillery, armored (divisions), drones and commandos will hold a well-coordinated exercise."

Turkey, which is also home to a large Kurdish minority and opposes the vote, is holding military drills near its own border with Iraq.

Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency reported that the Supreme National Security Council closed Iranian airspace to the Iraqi Kurdish area at the request of the central government in Baghdad.

Iran and Iraq have been close allies since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Both are opposed to Kurdish independence, and Baghdad has said the referendum is unconstitutional.

In a rare moment of agreement, Saudi Arabia has come out on the same side as its arch regional rival, Iran. It has publicly called for the vote not to move forward, citing current regional conditions and the potential for the vote to ignite a new crisis.

The 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Sunday also voiced its "deep concern" over the planned referendum, saying it runs against the constitution of Iraq and could have a negative impact on Iraq's ability to fight terrorism.

 

 Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell and Aya Batrawy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.</s>Today the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq—which has been autonomous since the post-Saddam constitution was passed in 2005 and now comprises nearly one-third of Iraqi territory—will hold a referendum on the critical question of full independence from Iraq. The general consensus is that the Kurds will overwhelmingly vote yes, and while the results are are non-binding they will be very significant for Kurdish aspirations and ominous for Baghdad.

[Editor’s Note: Today The American Conservative presents both the case for and against Kurdish independence. See Daniel Larison’s case against the referendum going forward, here.]

The United States, despite the regional pressure not to, must support the Kurds’ bid for independence as it would be morally and ethically wrong for America to turn its backs on these people at this point.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly called Kurdish President Masoud Barzani on August 20 to request postponement, stating that destruction of ISIS must remain the top priority, and that any deviation at this time would hurt the effort. The same message was delivered on September 14 by Brett McGurk, U.S. Representative to the International Coalition of War Against ISIS, who met with Barzani. McGurk added that the U.S. would not support the referendum, suggesting it had no legal legitimacy.

Yet Barzani reiterated his own resolve last week, saying that the Kurdish government would not cave to international pressures:

The Kurds, since 1991, have consistently cooperated politically and militarily with Republican and Democratic administrations in Washington. These relations grew even stronger after the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein. With the emergence of ISIS in 2014, U.S. support of Kurdistan grew to even greater levels. President Barack Obama went so far as to order bombing of ISIS positions in June 2014 when a major ISIS offensive threatened to overrun Erbil, the capital of KRG. U.S. aid for training and arms supply increased drastically.

With the election of President Donald Trump, the level of cooperation and supply continued because Kurdish fighters proved to be the most dynamic force against ISIS terrorists. Kurdish Peshmerga forces became an instrumental force in the fight against—and eventual defeat—of ISIS.

The lack of U.S. support for the referendum is not only wrong, but harmful to U.S.-Kurdish relations and could have adverse consequences on the war against ISIS. It may also negatively affect these four areas:

One: With the fall of Saddam in 2003, the Shia majority took control of the government. Despite heavy U.S. military and technical support, the Baghdad government gradually tilted towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iraqi Vice President Iyad Allawi has warned as recently as June about Iranian influence over the parliamentarian elections next year.

“Iran has been interfering even in the decision (making process) of the Iraqi people,” he told Reuters. “We don’t want an election based on sectarianism, we want an inclusive political process … we hope that the Iraqis would choose themselves without any involvement by any foreign power.”

In the Syrian crises, Baghdad followed Iran and Russia to support Damascus and other U.S. opponents. The Kurdish fighters have been the dominant force in the fight against ISIS. This has spared U.S. infantry from involvement in yet another fight.

Two: According to reports from the United Nations, since the downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians from Baghdad and Mosul fled to Kurdistan for fear of persecution, arrest, or murder by ISIS. The population of Christians in Kurdistan increased four-fold. Other minorities such as Shabak, KKAII, and Izidi also sought refuge in Kurdistan. More than 800,000 Iraqi Arab Sunnis have taken refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan. All of these minorities took refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan. KRG, as well as the Kurdish people, have never discriminated against any religion or creed, and have given them full freedom to practice their religion. One can say that to support the Kurdish referendum would be to support the protection of religious minorities in Iraq.

Three: Basij and Quds forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with Iraqi Shia militias, are trying to create a land corridor between Iran and Damascus through the city of Talqer, which has a considerable Shia population, near Mosul, and then through part of Sinjar, which is currently controlled by Iranian Basiji forces. Iran’s access to Syria via land means the establishment of a so-called Shia crescent. With U.S. support, an Independent Kurdistan would help prevent this additional foray of Iranian control in the region.

Four: The government of Turkey, led by an ever-powerful Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is gradually distancing itself from the United States. Turkey is a member of NATO and a longtime U.S. partner. However, in recent years under the leadership of the Development and Justice Party, their policies challenged U.S. interests. In 2015, after the failed coup in July, Erdoğan abandoned the policy of entering the European Union and has started tilting towards Russia.

Yes, Turkey is no friend of the Kurds. From the Turkish point of view, Kurds in Syria are closely connected to PKK. The Turks are aligned with Iran in this view. The Turks have gone so far as to bomb America’s Peshmerga allies in Syria. If Turkey continues to be an unreliable ally to the United States, with U.S. support, Kurdistan serve as a new and important balance in the region.

Furthermore, there is an existential bond between the U.S. and Kurdistan. The Kurds see a commonality between their own struggles and those that unfolded during the American War for Independence. They admire Thomas Jefferson and have a special affinity for George Washington.

Corruption aside, the Iraqi Kurds have made remarkable socio-economic progress in certain sectors since the establishment of KRG. Secular laws were adopted and implemented, and all ethnic and religious minorities work and collaborate in every sector of Kurdish society. There is an unprecedented degree of harmony that exists between Christians and all other ethnic groups living in the most secure region of the Middle East.

With the removal of Saddam in 2003, the U.S. inadvertently helped the Islamic Republic of Iran spread its power and influence in Iraq. Trump should not repeat the same calculated mistake here.

Ali Javanmardi is a Kurdish-American journalist living in Erbil and working as an international correspondent for Voice of America. His views are his own.</s>Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard has begun a military exercise in the northwestern Kurdish region near the Iraqi border ahead of a Kurdish independence referendum in the neighboring country.

The Guard’s website did not say how long the drill will last, only that airborne and missile units will participate in the exercise.

Iraq’s Kurds are set to vote Monday in a referendum on support for independence. The Kurds are likely to approve the referendum, but the non-binding vote is not expected to result in any formal declaration of independence.

Iran and Iraq have been close allies since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Both are opposed to Kurdish independence, and Baghdad has said the referendum is unconstitutional.</s>Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard has begun a military exercise in the northwestern Kurdish region near the Iraqi border ahead of a Kurdish independence referendum in the neighboring country.

The Guard's website did not say how long the drill will last, only that airborne and missile units will participate in the exercise.

Iraq's Kurds are set to vote Monday in a referendum on support for independence. The Kurds are likely to approve the referendum, but the non-binding vote is not expected to result in any formal declaration of independence.

Iran and Iraq have been close allies since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Both are opposed to Kurdish independence, and Baghdad has said the referendum is unconstitutional.</s>Today the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq—which has been autonomous since the post-Saddam constitution was passed in 2005 and now comprises nearly one-third of Iraqi territory—will hold a referendum on the critical question of full independence from Iraq. The general consensus is that the Kurds will overwhelmingly vote yes, and while the results are are non-binding they will be very significant for Kurdish aspirations and ominous for Baghdad.

[Editor’s Note: Today The American Conservative presents both the case for and against Kurdish independence. See Daniel Larison’s case against the referendum going forward, here.]

The United States, despite the regional pressure not to, must support the Kurds’ bid for independence as it would be morally and ethically wrong for America to turn its backs on these people at this point.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly called Kurdish President Masoud Barzani on August 20 to request postponement, stating that destruction of ISIS must remain the top priority, and that any deviation at this time would hurt the effort. The same message was delivered on September 14 by Brett McGurk, U.S. Representative to the International Coalition of War Against ISIS, who met with Barzani. McGurk added that the U.S. would not support the referendum, suggesting it had no legal legitimacy.

Yet Barzani reiterated his own resolve last week, saying that the Kurdish government would not cave to international pressures:

The Kurds, since 1991, have consistently cooperated politically and militarily with Republican and Democratic administrations in Washington. These relations grew even stronger after the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein. With the emergence of ISIS in 2014, U.S. support of Kurdistan grew to even greater levels. President Barack Obama went so far as to order bombing of ISIS positions in June 2014 when a major ISIS offensive threatened to overrun Erbil, the capital of KRG. U.S. aid for training and arms supply increased drastically.

With the election of President Donald Trump, the level of cooperation and supply continued because Kurdish fighters proved to be the most dynamic force against ISIS terrorists. Kurdish Peshmerga forces became an instrumental force in the fight against—and eventual defeat—of ISIS.

The lack of U.S. support for the referendum is not only wrong, but harmful to U.S.-Kurdish relations and could have adverse consequences on the war against ISIS. It may also negatively affect these four areas:

One: With the fall of Saddam in 2003, the Shia majority took control of the government. Despite heavy U.S. military and technical support, the Baghdad government gradually tilted towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iraqi Vice President Iyad Allawi has warned as recently as June about Iranian influence over the parliamentarian elections next year.

“Iran has been interfering even in the decision (making process) of the Iraqi people,” he told Reuters. “We don’t want an election based on sectarianism, we want an inclusive political process … we hope that the Iraqis would choose themselves without any involvement by any foreign power.”

In the Syrian crises, Baghdad followed Iran and Russia to support Damascus and other U.S. opponents. The Kurdish fighters have been the dominant force in the fight against ISIS. This has spared U.S. infantry from involvement in yet another fight.

Two: According to reports from the United Nations, since the downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians from Baghdad and Mosul fled to Kurdistan for fear of persecution, arrest, or murder by ISIS. The population of Christians in Kurdistan increased four-fold. Other minorities such as Shabak, KKAII, and Izidi also sought refuge in Kurdistan. More than 800,000 Iraqi Arab Sunnis have taken refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan. All of these minorities took refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan. KRG, as well as the Kurdish people, have never discriminated against any religion or creed, and have given them full freedom to practice their religion. One can say that to support the Kurdish referendum would be to support the protection of religious minorities in Iraq.

Three: Basij and Quds forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with Iraqi Shia militias, are trying to create a land corridor between Iran and Damascus through the city of Talqer, which has a considerable Shia population, near Mosul, and then through part of Sinjar, which is currently controlled by Iranian Basiji forces. Iran’s access to Syria via land means the establishment of a so-called Shia crescent. With U.S. support, an Independent Kurdistan would help prevent this additional foray of Iranian control in the region.

Four: The government of Turkey, led by an ever-powerful Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is gradually distancing itself from the United States. Turkey is a member of NATO and a longtime U.S. partner. However, in recent years under the leadership of the Development and Justice Party, their policies challenged U.S. interests. In 2015, after the failed coup in July, Erdoğan abandoned the policy of entering the European Union and has started tilting towards Russia.

Yes, Turkey is no friend of the Kurds. From the Turkish point of view, Kurds in Syria are closely connected to PKK. The Turks are aligned with Iran in this view. The Turks have gone so far as to bomb America’s Peshmerga allies in Syria. If Turkey continues to be an unreliable ally to the United States, with U.S. support, Kurdistan serve as a new and important balance in the region.

Furthermore, there is an existential bond between the U.S. and Kurdistan. The Kurds see a commonality between their own struggles and those that unfolded during the American War for Independence. They admire Thomas Jefferson and have a special affinity for George Washington.

Corruption aside, the Iraqi Kurds have made remarkable socio-economic progress in certain sectors since the establishment of KRG. Secular laws were adopted and implemented, and all ethnic and religious minorities work and collaborate in every sector of Kurdish society. There is an unprecedented degree of harmony that exists between Christians and all other ethnic groups living in the most secure region of the Middle East.

With the removal of Saddam in 2003, the U.S. inadvertently helped the Islamic Republic of Iran spread its power and influence in Iraq. Trump should not repeat the same calculated mistake here.

Ali Javanmardi is a Kurdish-American journalist living in Erbil and working as an international correspondent for Voice of America. His views are his own.</s>America's most reliable ally in the fight against ISIS wants its own country.

This long-held ambition could take one step closer to becoming reality Monday when Iraqi Kurds are scheduled to vote in a historic independence referendum.

Experts say the result will almost certainly be a resounding "yes" — but what that will actually mean in reality is still unclear.

For the Kurds, the vote presents an opportunity to finally break away from Iraq.

"We have the right to choose our destiny and fulfill our dream," Dallo Mohammed, a 32-year-old accountant from the town of Khanaqin, told NBC News. "I am a Kurdish citizen, this is how I was born, and this is how I would die."

For opponents of the vote — a list of countries that includes the U.S. — they say the ballot could provoke destabilization, ethnic violence, and hamper the fight against ISIS.

Who are the Kurds?

They are the world's largest ethnic group who occupy one geographical area but don't have their own country.

They are mostly Sunni Muslims and their estimated population of 35 million spans a huge mountainous region across Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Armenia.

They were given hope of their own nation after World War I when the 1920 Treaty of Sevres carved up the Ottoman Empire and eked out a proposed state for Kurdistan.

Disagreements and subsequent treaties meant that never happened.

Today, depending on which country they find themselves in, the Kurds are subject to a complex web of adversaries, allegiances and internal divisions.

In Turkey and Iran, they face discrimination and their organizations have been blacklisted as terrorists. In Iraq and Syria, however, they have proved among the most effective fighters pushing back ISIS, and they have received the backing of the Pentagon in both arenas.

While the situation in Syria is far more messy, in Iraq the Kurds have established their own semi-autonomous region. Iraqi Kurdistan is an oil-rich province that encompasses one-third of the country and has emerged as the most secure area in an otherwise chaotic state.

What is the vote about?

Monday's referendum will ask people whether they want to expand this autonomy and become a fully fledged, independent country.

"They see this as a once-in-a-century opportunity to begin the process of forming their own state," said Gareth Stansfield, a senior associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.

The Kurds have threatened to break off from the rest of Iraq for years.

They accuse the central government of violating its constitutional obligations toward them and withholding their share of the federal budget.

"From World War I until now, we are not a part of Iraq," Kurdish President Masoud Barzani told the Guardian on Friday. "It’s a theocratic, sectarian state. We have our geography, land and culture. We have our own language. We refuse to be subordinates."

Right now may be their best shot at independence thanks to a confluence of events — namely the weakening of political systems surrounding them following two decades of violence and the rise of ISIS in 2014.

But even in the event of a "yes" vote, the government says it won't separate right away. Rather, it sees the vote more as a statement of intent, a springboard from which to launch dialogue with the central Iraqi government.

The vote will cover not only areas in the official, semi-autonomous region but also disputed regions where the Kurdish forces, known as the peshmerga, have pushed into following their largely successful campaign against ISIS.

These peshmerga — whose name means "those who face death" — have been fighting alongside the Iraqi army in the U.S.-led coalition, but it is the Kurds who have proved the far more effective fighting force.

What does Iraq think about all this?

The central government in Baghdad has rejected the referendum as illegal and unconstitutional. Its Supreme Court has officially suspended the ballot — not that the Kurds are listening — and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has threatened military action if the vote leads to violence.

Some Arab Iraqis, such as 44-year-old electrician Ali Hameed, believe the vote will bring more uncertainty to what is already a perilously fractious region.

"This will create more problems for them," said Hameed, who spoke to NBC News in his home city of Baghdad. "Iran and Turkey will sooner or later have a reason to invade northern Iraq, and we know the Kurds do not have capabilities to fight" a war against those countries.

The prospect of violence doesn't deter Mohammed Ali, a 36-year-old Kurdish pharmacist from Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. He told NBC News his people would be prepared to stand up for their beliefs in the event of a military flare-up.

"The only thing I am afraid of is that if the government in Baghdad tried to stand in our way," he said. "This might be the cause of a civil war between the Kurds and Arabs. The Kurds will fight for this, they will fight for their rights."

Nechirvan Barzani, the Iraqi Kurdish prime minister and nephew of the president, has dismissed the possibility of violence. He told Kurdish network Rudaw: "I do not see any military attack at all on the Kurdistan Region. It is impossible to happen."

How about other neighboring countries?

There has been enormous outside pressure on the Iraqi Kurds to postpone the vote or cancel it entirely.

Turkey and Iran issued a joint statement with Iraq saying they were considering deploying "countermeasures," although they didn't say what these might be.

Both countries are worried that an independence vote might inspire an upsurge in separatism among their own Kurdish populations.

Turkey has for years been locked in conflict with the Marxist militant separatist Kurdistan Workers Party, commonly known as the PKK, and it has also been fighting the Kurds in Syria, who it sees as an extension of its own rebels.

To get an idea of how truly complex this picture is, the U.S. is a NATO ally of Turkey, but the Pentagon is also arming the Syrian Kurds, even though Turkey and the Kurds have been fighting each other.

In Iraq, Turkey's relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government is more nuanced. Whereas Turkey opposes its own Kurds, it has forged strong military and economic ties with those in Iraq. Crucially these ties involve a pipeline that runs from landlocked Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

This has led some to suggest that while Turkey doesn't want to openly support the referendum,in private it might see it as a positive step in its pragmatic and transactional relationship.

"Turkey could have easily stopped [the referendum] in its tracks simply by threatening to close the oil pipeline for extended periods of routine maintenance," Stansfield wrote in a paper for RUSI earlier this month.

"This has not happened," he said. "This raises the possibility that the Kurdish view may be right — that Turkey is publicly positioning itself to be unsupportive ... but privately sees several benefits in embracing independence."

What about the U.S.?

Although the Department of Defense has found the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds to be a ruthless anti-ISIS force, this has not translated to White House support for independence.

"The United States strongly opposes the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s referendum on independence," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Wednesday.

The U.S. sees the possibility of a fracturing Iraq as a destabilizing force in an already unsettled region politically — not to mention hampering the ongoing fight against ISIS.

"The costs of proceeding with the referendum are high for all Iraqis, including Kurds," Nauert added. "Already the referendum has negatively affected ... coordination to dislodge ISIS from its remaining areas of control in Iraq."

Many Kurds don't see it that way. They see a country that, referendum or not, is already flawed and has not worked in their interests for decades.

"The region is already not stable," said Omar Khoshnau, a 38-year-old salesman from Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. "The war against ISIS is going to be more effective if Kurdistan is an independent state, because it is an ally for the international community, and we are the first who fought ISIS."

What would a "yes" vote mean?

A nod for independence would be no doubt symbolic but its practical implications are harder to pin down.

The referendum question asks: "Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state?"

But it has no formal framework or mechanism for how this might work. Instead, the president has said the decision will be the trigger for meaningful dialogue with Baghdad.

According to Marianna Charountaki, a lecturer in Kurdish politics at the University of Leicester, the vote is mainly figurative anyway.

"The reality is that there's already de facto independence and now we're just talking about the outward appearance and official titles," she said.

There are many sticking points, however, namely the disputed areas that the peshmerga have pushed into after the Iraqi Army fled ISIS. These include the key, oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds seized in 2014 after the Iraqi Army fled from the jihadis.
Iranian forces launch a military exercise near the border of Iraqi Kurdistan, hours before a Kurdish vote on independence from Iraq. Turkey is also conducting a military exercise in the region.