A ship named the Torrent is nearing the end of a 5,000-mile trip carrying soybeans from the U.S. Great Lakes to Argentina - a journey that only makes economic sense because of the U.S.-China trade war.

BUENOS AIRES/CHICAGO: A ship named the Torrent is nearing the end of a 5,000-mile trip carrying soybeans from the U.S. Great Lakes to Argentina: a journey that only makes economic sense because of the U.S.-China trade war.

The ship is scheduled to dock in the Rosario grains hub on Dec. 4, days after the leaders of the world's two largest economies, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, hold high-stakes trade talks in Buenos Aires.

They will meet on the sidelines of a Group of 20 nations summit and are expected to discuss how to roll back tit-for-tat tariffs - covering goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars - that have skewed global trade flows.

The Torrent's 20,000-tonne soybean cargo is one such distortion, and just one of 14 ships the Argentine soy crusher Vicentin has lined up to import U.S. soybeans, according to port data reviewed by Reuters. The previously unreported shipments are among the first significant Argentine purchases from the United States in two decades, according to Vicentin's broker and port data, as the nation's government and industry moves to capitalize on the tumult of the U.S.-China conflict.

Argentina - one of the world's top soybean exporters, and the top exporter of processed meal and oil - usually has no reason to import beans. But this year, the South American nation has raced to the top of the list of U.S. soybean importers because the prices of U.S. beans have fallen by 15 percent since late May, when China first threatened tariffs on them.

"One of the consequences of the trade war is that U.S. beans have to find a new home," said Thomas Hinrichsen, president of Buenos Aires-based brokerage J.J. Hinrichsen SA, which cut the deals for Vicentin. "You are in the money to ship cheaper U.S. beans into efficient crushing plants in Argentina."

Beyond price, Argentina needs U.S. beans to feed its massive soy-crushing industry after a punishing drought. What is left of the nation's own crops are going to feed pigs in China - where buyers are paying a premium for South American soybeans to fill the gap left by virtually halted imports from the United States.

"The combination of the drought in Argentina and the soy glut in the United States caused by the trade conflict has directed U.S. soybeans toward Argentina," said Guillermo Wade, manager of Argentina's Port and Maritime Activities Chamber. "They are being used to keep our crushers working while freeing Argentine soybeans to go to China."

Argentina's International Trade Secretary, Marisa Bircher, told Reuters Argentina was also seeking to export more soy and byproducts to India and Southeast Asia. Argentina's current top soymeal buyers include the European Union, Vietnam and Indonesia.

"Clearly, this U.S.-China conflict is generating a change in the grain trade," Bircher said.

The grains powerhouse is even negotiating a license to export soymeal directly to China - which has until now only imported Argentine beans for crushing in China.

"We have a very good relationship with China... we are negotiating to open the market to soybean meal before the end of the year," said Bircher.

Argentina collects export taxes from companies on agricultural goods like soy, corn and wheat shipments, providing it with much needed revenue in the midst of an economic crisis.

The country, which is in the global spotlight as G20 host, has good relations with both the United States and China and has sought deals with both in recent weeks as it seeks to cash in on opportunities that have arisen due to the trade war.

Besides seeking the soymeal deal with China, it has negotiated a deal to export beef to the United States for the first time in 17 years.

The Torrent, which loaded a month ago at a Toledo, Ohio facility operated by Ohio-based The Andersons, is one of 43 U.S. soybean ships that have sailed for Argentina since July and the second to sail from the Great Lakes region, on the other side of the world from the South American country. Just nine have sailed for China.

A year ago, 282 soybean cargo vessels were loaded in the United States bound for China in that time and none to Argentina, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

China's soybean tariffs, which have virtually halted purchases of U.S. soybeans that last year totaled US$12 billion, came in retaliation for Trump's duties on Chinese steel and aluminum. That has left U.S. farmers and grains merchants with huge inventories of soybeans because China typically buys 60 percent of U.S. soy exports.

Grains companies have had to adapt quickly to keep massive volumes of perishable goods moving at the lowest possible cost.

Bulk grain terminals in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the most direct outlet for Asia-bound shipments, are handling a quarter of their normal autumn soybean volume. The beans that are hauled there by rail are instead heading east to Great Lakes terminals or south to Mexico or Gulf Coast ports bound for countries other than China.

"By shipping soybeans out of the U.S. to unnatural destinations - and moving Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in place of that into China when they should have come out of the U.S. West Coast - there's an inherent logistics cost in this," Soren Schroder, Chief Executive of global grain trader Bunge Ltd told Reuters in a recent interview.

The inefficiencies amount to "many, many millions" of dollars in new costs, borne by the whole industry, he said.

The changes have also presented opportunities for agricultural trading giants such as Bunge, Louis Dreyfus Company and Cargill Inc, who are making money processing cheaper U.S. soybeans in Argentina and Canada. They're also selling those countries' unprocessed beans at a premium to Chinese buyers who are struggling to replace the huge volume of soybeans they typically buy from the United States.

Nimble traders are reaping big profits, but the opportunities may be fleeting.

"Everyone's getting on the 'Make America Great' Trump gravy train for soybeans from Canada," said Dwight Gerling, president of Toronto-based DG Global, a Canadian exporter of soybeans by container.

On a delivered basis to China, Canadian soybeans were fetching a premium of up to US$3 per bushel this fall over the Chicago futures price, more than double the premium U.S. soybeans make in export markets, he said.

DG Global has increased soybean sales volumes by 80 percent year to date, due entirely to the U.S.-China trade fight, Gerling said. DG buys cheap U.S. soybeans to ship to its regular southeast Asian buyers - who would normally buy Canadian soy - and this autumn sent its Canadian soybeans to China, a new market for the company.

The sales to China have recently slowed, however, with winter shipping restrictions approaching on the Great Lakes, Gerling said. Chinese bids for Canadian soybeans are now only slightly higher than bids from other countries for American soybeans.

While companies are finding new ways to make money, U.S. farmers in the export-focused Dakotas are feeling the sting of the trade battle as prices at their local elevators for their newly harvested soybeans are the lowest in more than a decade.

The concern there and elsewhere among U.S. farmers is that the damage to their relationships with Chinese buyers - built up over three decades - will be difficult to repair even if Trump and Xi strike a deal in Buenos Aires.

"The Chinese can get soybeans from other places if we're not a reliable supplier," said Bob Metz, a fifth generation farmer in Peever, South Dakota. "They have 1.4 billion people to feed. They don't want to be dependent on us."</s>BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — President Donald Trump joined the leaders of Canada and Mexico at a global meeting in Argentina on Friday (Nov. 30) to sign a revised North American trade pact, fulfilling a longstanding political promise with a deal he celebrated as a “groundbreaking achievement.”

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is meant to replace the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump has long denigrated as a "disaster." However, ongoing differences over steel and aluminum tariffs the U.S. has imposed on its northern and southern neighbors encroached on the celebratory moment.

Trump appeared with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and outgoing Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto at the Group of 20 nations summit in Buenos Aires for the formal signing ceremony. Each country's legislature must also approve the agreement.

"It's been long and hard. We've taken a lot of barbs and a little abuse and we got there," Trump said of the pact. "It's great for all our countries."

Legislative approval is the next step in the process, but could prove to be a difficult task in the United States, especially now that Democrats — instead of Trump's Republicans — will control the House of Representatives come January. Democrats and their allies in the labor movement are already demanding changes to the agreement.

Within hours of the signing, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said that for the deal to get majority support in Congress, it must have stronger labor and environmental protections and "must prove to be a net benefit to middle-class families and working people."

While Trump hailed the revised trade pact, Trudeau was more measured and used the event to call on Trump to remove the steel and aluminum tariffs the U.S. slapped on Canada and Mexico. Trudeau also referenced recent downsizing by General Motors in North America as a "heavy blow." Trump did not mention the job losses.

"With hard work, good will and determination I'm confident that we will get there," Trudeau said.

Pena Nieto, who will handoff to his successor Saturday, said he was honored to be at the signing on the last day of his administration, saying it is the culmination of a long process "that allow us to overcome differences and to conciliate our visions."

The signing came at the front end of two days of tough diplomacy for Trump. On the top of his agenda is a Saturday dinner meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping. which will determine if the two can ease escalating trade tensions. Before Trump arrived in Argentina he injected additional drama into the proceedings by canceling another high-stakes meeting, with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Friday, Trump opened the day with a cordial meeting at the Casa Rosada with Argentine President Mauricio Macri, a longtime business acquaintance. Posing for photos in the gilded Salón Blanco, Trump spoke about their longtime personal relationship and said they would discuss trade, military purchases and other issues.

"We've known each other a long while," Trump said, noting he worked with Macri's father on real estate developments. The businessman-turned-politician joked that when he and Macri first met they'd never have imagined their future roles on the world stage.

Macri is hosting the summit as he struggles with problems at home. He is trying to halt economic turmoil that has caused the steep depreciation of the Argentine peso.

Trump, who arrived in Buenos Aires late Thursday, barreled into the two-day meeting by announcing via Twitter that he was canceling a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Russia's seizure of Ukrainian vessels. His agenda for the weekend includes meetings with world leaders, as well as a number of heavily choreographed group activities for the gathering of leaders of rich and developing nations.

Trump faces a series of diplomatic challenges over the weekend, most notably whether he can strike an agreement with Xi.

The president canceled on Putin not long after his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, revealed he had lied to Congress to cover up that he was negotiating a real estate deal in Moscow on Trump's behalf during the Republican presidential primary in 2016. The news ensured any meeting with Putin would have put a spotlight on the special counsel's investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Moscow during the campaign. Trump has denied any wrongdoing.

Trump showed that the Russia investigation was testing his ability to stay focused on summit business after he blasted the investigation in a fresh tweet on Friday, again calling it a "Witch Hunt!"

One looming question is whether Trump will have a run-in with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman amid global dismay over the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that the Saudi crown prince must have at least known of the plot to kill Khashoggi, who was critical of the Saudi royal family. Lawmakers in both parties have called on Trump to at least avoid the young heir apparent as punishment.

But Trump publicly announced his decision to effectively give the prince a pass in the name of "America First," making vastly exaggerated claims of Saudi military contracts and investments in the United States. The president also views Saudi Arabia as a vital counterbalance to Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Asked Thursday why the two had no meeting scheduled, Trump said: “I would have met with him but we didn’t set that one up.”</s>USMCA: Trump Signs New Trade Agreement With Mexico And Canada To Replace NAFTA

Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Updated at 8:25 a.m. ET

President Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto signed the new U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement — or USMCA — in Buenos Aires Friday, using the backdrop of the G-20 Summit to resolve a trade dispute between America and its closest neighbors.

"Let's go," all three leaders said as they sat alongside each other to sign multiple copies of the deal.

They then shuffled binders around in front of them, to finalize the deal that remakes one of the world's largest free trade zones. When the signing was over, they paused for a photo-op. "Might as well hold that up," Trump said, displaying the fresh signatures as the three leaders sat together.

Despite that and other prodding, Trudeau opted not to follow his peers in holding up his binder to celebrate — a sign, perhaps, of the lingering effects of the contentious process that was triggered when Trump imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada earlier this year, which remain in place.

The signing event and the leaders' remarks were livestreamed. You can watch the event here.

YouTube

In the lead-up to the signing, Canadian officials had "made it clear they didn't want to celebrate the end of a year of U.S. attempts to twist Canada's arm with the tariffs still in place," the CBC reports. But that wish ran counter to the desires of Trump and Peña Nieto, both of whom have preferred to portray the deal as a victory that helps to cement their legacies.

"This has been a battle, and battles sometimes make great friendships," Trump said at the start of the signing ceremony.

Saying all three countries will benefit from the deal, Trump said of the USMCA, "It is probably the largest trade deal ever made."

The USMCA (read the whole text here) replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement, which had created a free trade zone between the three countries back in 1994. The deal will require ratification by all three countries' legislatures before taking effect.

"The biggest change this deal makes, really, is to the automotive sector," NPR's Scott Horsley reports, "where it does put higher requirements on North American content, and in particular high-wage content, for vehicles to trade duty-free."

The USMCA deal emerged in early October, months after President Trump hit Mexico and Canada with tariffs on their steel and aluminum products. That move set off retaliatory tariffs and intense negotiations to create a new trade pact.

Calling the deal "the new North American Free Trade Agreement, Trudeau said it "lifts the risk of serious economic uncertainty that lingers throughout a trade renegotiation process — uncertainty that would have only gotten worse and more damaging if we had not reached a new NAFTA."

There is more work to be done, Trudeau said, calling the recent announcement that General Motors will close plants in Canada and the U.S. "a heavy blow."

Turning to address Trump, said "And Donald, it's all the more reason why we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum between our countries."

"General Motors has said that those steel and aluminum tariffs robbed it of a billion dollars in profits in the last year," Scott Horsley reports. In June, GM also warned the Trump administration that new tariffs could result in "a smaller GM."

When it was his turn to speak, Peña Nieto said the trade agreement includes provisions for e-commerce and informational technology — subjects that he said made it necessary to update NAFTA.

"In fact, one-third of the agreement includes topics that were not included in the first agreement," he said.

Peña Nieto also said the USMCA "is the first trade agreement that incorporates elements that address the social impact of international trade; it enables the participation of more sectors in the economy."

Among those provisions, he said, are protections for workers' rights and the environment, and elements that seek to extend the benefits of free trade more broadly.

The signing took place on Peña Nieto's final day in office; Mexico's newly elected president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will be sworn in on Saturday.

Shortly before the signing ceremony, Peña Nieto awarded presidential senior adviser and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner with the Order of the Aztec Eagle, the highest honor Mexico gives to foreigners.

The move "shocked many in Mexico," as NPR's Carrie Kahn reported earlier this week, referring to the outrage and anger that has poured out online.

Later in the G-20 meetings, Trump will turn to another high-profile trade crisis, when he has dinner on Saturday with Chinese President Xi Jinping.</s>BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — World leaders arrived Thursday in the Argentine capital for the Group of 20 summit of the globe's largest economies as issues such as a trade war between the United States and China, the killing of a Saudi journalist in the country's Istanbul Consulate and the conflict over Ukraine threatened to overshadow the gathering.

The two-day summit beginning Friday is supposed to focus on development, infrastructure and food security, but those seemed largely an afterthought amid soured U.S.-European relations and as the United States, Mexico and Canada hammered out the final language of a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement expected to be signed Friday.

Michael Shifter, head of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank, said that this G-20 summit was once considered an opportunity for Latin American members Argentina, Brazil and Mexico "to project a regional bloc to shape a global agenda."

But, he said, "that turned out to be a fleeting aspiration."

"The fact that the G-20 is taking place in South America for the first time is almost beside the point," Shifter said. "Argentine President Mauricio Macri, the summit's host, has lowered expectations. ... Now a success would be a summit meeting that goes smoothly, without any major disruption."

Nonetheless, French President Emmanuel Macron, who flew into Buenos Aires on Wednesday as one of the earliest arrivers, clung to the importance of the ideal of cooperation that the G-20 represents.

"I believe in our capacity to make the spirit of dialogue and cooperation triumph," Macron said at a joint news conference with Macri, warning that if nations "close down," the alternative could be trade wars or armed conflict.

Macron also called for international involvement and "complete clarity" in investigations into the killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and said European leaders should discuss it at a meeting Friday.

Macri said the matter of the killing would be "on the table" during bilateral and possibly broader meetings.

Saudia Arabia has denied that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a role in Khashoggi's gruesome slaying. But Human Rights Watch accuses him of responsibility and also of war crimes in Yemen, and on Wednesday, Argentine legal authorities took initial action to consider a request to prosecute him for alleged crimes against humanity, a move apparently aimed at embarrassing him as he attends the summit.

It is to be bin Salman's first significant appearance overseas since the killing. Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been sharply critical of Saudi Arabia over the incident, is also in attendance.

"Given the role that Turkey has played in this, given that the murder happened at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, this will be an interesting meeting," said Willis Sparks, director of global macro politics at Eurasia Group. "Just to see how leaders interact with the crown prince will be interesting — how warm they are. I expect (U.S. President Donald) Trump to be very warm with him, but European leaders probably are going to be very reluctant to have their pictures taken with him."

An expected high-profile bilateral meeting between Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin planned for Saturday was abruptly canceled by Trump, who made the announcement in a tweet citing Russia's seizure of Ukrainian vessels over the weekend.

The Kremlin said it had not been notified and only learned about it from the tweet. Russian news agencies quoted Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying the cancellation means that Putin will have "a couple more hours" for "useful meetings" with G-20 leaders.

Trump was still scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but analysts were not optimistic about prospects for a major breakthrough on the two countries' trade disputes a month before U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to ramp up.

Shannon O'Neil, an expert on global trade at the Council on Foreign Relations, said she believes it "very likely" that the tariffs will take effect in January.

"I think this is an issue that Trump cares a lot about and is going to use when he campaigns for 2020," O'Neil said. "It used to be Mexico and NAFTA, and now it's going to be China."

The U.S., Canada and Mexico are scheduled to sign the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that is replacing the NAFTA trade deal during a ceremony Friday. There had been speculation Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might not attend and send his foreign minister instead if Trump did not lift steel and aluminum tariffs, but Trudeau's press secretary confirmed Thursday night that he would be at the ceremony.

The foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, said the three countries were "very much on track" to sign on time.

"These agreements are massive, and a vast number of technical details need to be scrubbed and wrapped up," she said. "The fact that this is an agreement in three languages adds to the level of technical complexity, and it is on that level that we're just being sure that all the i's are dotted and all the t's are crossed."

The pact must still be approved by lawmakers in all three countries. O'Neil said she anticipates that to be "quite smooth" in Mexico and Canada, but passage could be more complicated in the United States after midterm elections flipped the House of Representatives, meaning the next speaker could be Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

"There are some ... things in there that I think Democrats can support," O'Neil said. "But I can't imagine having a new NAFTA is going to be Pelosi's first priority when she comes in, so I'd expect it to be drawn out."

It stands to be a short visit for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who is scheduled to return to his country for the inauguration Saturday of his successor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

On Thursday, Macron criticized protectionist stances by Trump but said they have no plans for a one-on-one at the summit. The two have increasingly clashed in recent weeks on everything from Trump's nationalism to wine tariffs.

The French president envisions himself as a new leader of the free world and is fashioning himself at this summit as the anti-Trump — a champion of the Paris climate accord, defender of the postwar system of global trade and crusader against multinational tax evaders.

Macron warned that Europe might not sign trade deals with the South American regional bloc Mercosur if Brazil's incoming president, Jair Bolsonaro, pulls out of the Paris accord.

Taking the world stage at the G-20 is a welcome relief for Macron, who has faced mass protests at home over rising fuel taxes that are the biggest challenge yet to his presidency. But his party dominates parliament and neither faces re-election until 2022.

Other European leaders at the summit are facing domestic struggles of their own. Britain's Theresa May is fighting for political survival as she tries to pull her country out of the European Union. Germany's Angela Merkel is preparing to leave politics after announcing last month she would give up leadership of her party, a post she has held since 2000. Italy's Giuseppe Conte heads a populist coalition that is clashing with the EU and suffers internal divisions.

Senior German officials, briefing reporters in Berlin on condition of anonymity, said Merkel planned to hold bilateral meetings with Trump, Putin, Xi, India's Narendra Modi, Australia's Scott Morrison and Macri. Merkel was supposed to arrive in Buenos Aires early Friday, but her plane returned to Germany on Thursday night due to a technical problem. A German air force plane was being readied to carry the chancellor and her entourage.

The British Embassy in Argentina said May's visit would be the first by a U.K. prime minister to Buenos Aires; the only other prime minister to visit the country was Tony Blair who went to Puerto Iguazu in 2001. The two countries have long been at odds over the disputed islands known as the Falklands in Britain and the Malvinas in Argentina.

Outside Argentina's congress, as many as 1,000 people gathered Thursday for a forum hosted by organizations opposing the G-20 and the International Monetary Fund. A large inflatable blimp caricaturing Trump as a baby holding a cellphone — which has appeared at protests in other places the U.S. president has visited — floated over the square underneath a light rain.

Thomas Bernes of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, a Canada-based think tank focusing on global governance, said this summit could be a defining moment for the Group of 20 — for better or for worse.

"The G-20 Leader's Summit is at risk of falling into disarray with the summit being overshadowed by items not on agenda," Bernes said. "The true test will be whether the other members of the G-20 will act resolutely or whether we will witness the crumbling of the G-20 as a forum for international economic cooperation."</s>BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Table talk at President Donald Trump’s dinner meeting Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping will undoubtedly have a global impact.

What they agree on — or don’t — will likely move markets up or down, determine whether the world economy gets some relief from destabilizing trade tensions and cast judgment on the wisdom of the American leader’s hard-nosed trade tactics.

Trump and Xi are seeking a way out of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, while also saving face for their domestic audiences at home.

Before the dinner of grilled sirloin, red onions, goat ricotta and dates, Trump told reporters that “we’ll be discussing trade and I think at some point we are going to end up doing something that is great for China and great for the United States.” He did not offer any details.

Xi’s remarks also gave no indication of whether any breakthrough was imminent.

“Only with cooperation between us can we serve the interests of world peace and prosperity,” Xi said, adding that he looked forward to exchanging ideas and having an opportunity to “jointly map out the future for China-U.S. relations.”

The Trump-Xi meeting is set to be the marquee event of Trump’s whirlwind two-day trip to Argentina for the Group of 20 Summit after the president cancelled a sit-down with Russian President Vladimir Putin over mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump also canceled a Saturday news conference, citing respect for the Bush family following the death of former President George H.W. Bush.

Trump said that “the very important meeting” with Xi would go on, but he noted that Bush’s death “really puts a damper on it, to be honest with you.”

The United States and China are locked in a dispute over their trade imbalance and Beijing’s push to challenge American technological dominance. Washington accuses China of deploying predatory tactics in its tech drive, including stealing trade secrets and forcing American firms to hand over technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market.

Trump has imposed import taxes on $250 billion in Chinese products. If he can’t get a deal with Xi, he’s poised to more than double most of those tariffs Jan. 1. And he’s threatened to expand tariffs to virtually everything China ships to the United States.

China, which has already slapped tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, is likely to retaliate, ramping up a conflict that is already rattling financial markets and causing forecasters to downgrade the outlook for global economic growth.

U.S. officials insist that the American economy is more resilient to the tumult than China’s, but they remain anxious of the economic effects of a prolonged showdown — as Trump has made economic growth the benchmark by which he wants his administration judges.

It’s unlikely the two countries will reach a full-blown resolution in Buenos Aires; the issues that divide them are just too difficult. What’s more likely, analysts say, is that they reach a truce, buying time for more substantive talks. Whether such a cease-fire would be enough to get Trump to delay higher or expanded tariffs is unclear.

Growing concerns that the trade war will increasingly hurt corporate earnings and the U.S. economy are a key reason why U.S. stock prices have been sinking this fall.

Joining other forecasters, economists at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development last week downgraded their outlook for global economic growth next year to 3.5 percent from a previous 3.7 percent. In doing so, they cited the trade conflict as well as political uncertainty.

Trump met Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a rare trilateral meeting. The symbolism ahead of the Xi meeting was clear: the Trump administration has looked to find common cause with both nations in countering China’s regional hegemony.

Earlier that day, Trump signed a revamped three-way trade deal with Canada and Mexico, fulfilling a longstanding pledge, though the agreement could face headwinds in Congress. He also held a series of formal and informal meetings and will continue those sit-downs Saturday, including with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Last spring, it looked like Beijing and Washington might have found a peaceful resolution.

In May, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the trade war “on hold” after Beijing agreed to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans and liquefied natural gas — a move that could have put a dent in China’s massive trade surplus with the United States.

But the cease-fire didn’t last. Facing criticism that he’d gone soft on China, Trump backed away from Mnuchin’s deal and decided to proceed with tariffs.

Now a lasting peace is likely to require the Chinese to scale back their ambitions to become a technological power. Or at least curb the strong-arm tactics.

Kudlow said the administration has been “extremely disappointed” by China’s engagement in trade talks but the meeting between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit could be a game-changer.

“Perhaps we can break through in Buenos Aires or not,” he said.

Kudlow added that if the U.S. doesn’t get “satisfactory” responses to its trade positions more tariffs will be imposed. He said Trump is “not going away.”

“I hope they understand that,” he said.

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania is skeptical: “This has been their business model for a while,” Toomey told reporters this week. “They’re not going to abandon it lightly.”

Copyright 2018 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.</s>The leaders of Mexico, Canada and the United States signed a North American trade pact on Friday after brinkmanship over the final details of the deal continued through the eve of the signing.

They agreed on a deal in principle to govern the more than trillion dollars of mutual trade after a year and a half of acrimonious negotiations concluded with a late-night bargain just an hour before a deadline on Sept. 30.

Since then, the three sides have bickered over the wording and the finer points of the deal and still had not agreed just hours before officials were due to sit down and sign it as the G20 summit kicks off in Buenos Aires.

Legislators from the three countries still have to approve the pact, officially known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), before it goes into effect and replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's spokesman only confirmed his attendance late on Thursday. Before signing the deal he continued to refer to as "the New NAFTA," Trudeau told Trump the two should continue to work together to eliminate steel and aluminum tariffs.

Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto joined the ceremony on his last day in office.

Trump had vowed to revamp NAFTA during his 2016 presidential election campaign. He threatened to tear it up and withdraw the U.S. completely at times during the negotiation, which would have left trade between the three neighbors in disarray.

Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the 24-year-old agreement because he said the existing pact encouraged U.S. companies to move jobs to low-wage Mexico. U.S. objections to Canada's protected internal market for dairy products was a major challenge facing negotiators during the talks, and Trump repeatedly demanded concessions and accused Canada of hurting U.S. farmers.

A side letter to the September agreement showed that Trump preserved the ability to impose threatened 25 percent global tariffs on autos while largely exempting passenger vehicles, pickup trucks and auto parts from Canada and Mexico.

"It's been long and hard. We've taken a lot of barbs and a little abuse, but we got there," Trump said of the pact.

Legislative approval is the next step in the process, but could prove to be a difficult task in the United States, especially now that Democrats – instead of Trump's Republicans – will control the House of Representatives come January. Already Democrats and their allies in the labor movement are demanding changes to the agreement.

While Trump hailed the revised trade pact, Trudeau was more measured, saying there was still work to be done and calling on Trump – using his first name – to remove steel and aluminum tariffs the U.S. imposed on Canada and Mexico. Trudeau also referenced recent downsizing by General Motors in North America as a "heavy blow." Trump did not mention the job losses.

The signing came at the front end of two days of tough diplomacy for Trump. On the top of his agenda is a Saturday dinner meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping. which will determine if the two can ease escalating trade tensions.

Overhanging the summit in Buenos Aires, the Argentine capital, is a trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies, which have imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other's imports. All eyes will be on a planned dinner between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday to see whether they can make progress toward resolving differences threatening the global economy.

Beijing hopes to persuade Trump to abandon plans to hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent in January, from 10 percent at present.

"We hope the U.S. can show sincerity and meet China half way, to promote a proposal that both countries can accept," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a briefing in Beijing.

Trump faces a series of diplomatic challenges over the weekend, most notably whether he can strike an agreement with Xi.

Before departing Washington on Thursday, Trump said he was "very close" to reaching a deal with China but added "I don't know that I want to do it because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the United States in the form of tariffs or taxes."

The U.S. began hiking tariffs on Chinese goods earlier this year and Beijing has responded in a tit-for-tat fashion, sparking tensions that a full trade war could erupt.

Trump increased additional duties imposed on Chinese goods this year from 10 percent to 25 percent next January. The U.S. president also said he is considering levying extra tariffs on another $267 billion worth of Chinese imports should Beijing retaliate.

With his "America First" approach, general distaste for multinational deals and habit of insulting allies, Trump typically gets a mixed reception at global gatherings.

Trump has slapped tariffs on the European Union, pulled the U.S. out of the landmark Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal and suggested he might be willing to pull the U.S. out of NATO if member countries don't significantly boost their defense spending.

Ending the NAFTA would have meant tearing up the continent's closely integrated auto supply chain. But Ottawa, Mexico City and Washington have now agreed to sweeping changes to manufacturing and labor requirements that U.S. officials say should boost wages and discourage moving production offshore.

The deal will require that 75 percent of auto content be made in the region, increased from 62.5 percent, and that 40-45 percent be made by workers earning at least $16 an hour.

Mexico also agreed to continue to recognize U.S. auto safety standards, unless Mexican regulators conclude they are inferior to their own standards.

Trump has threatened to use a national security justification to impose steep tariffs on the hundreds of billions of dollars in autos the U.S. imports annually. But the USMCA includes side letters that agree to exempt Mexico and Canada up to a threshold of 2.6 million vehicles a year, as well as an unspecified amount of light trucks, and tens of billions of dollars in auto parts.

However, the new deal does not resolve the punishing steel and aluminum tariffs imposed worldwide earlier this year, and on Mexico and Canada since May.

Canada, which guarantees prices for its dairy producers through its managed supply system, agreed to open its borders a little wider to American milk, cheese, cream, butter and other goods.

The concession from Ottawa removed a major sticking point that Trump said was a deal breaker. Canada will also eliminate categories of low-cost dairy goods and will allow greater imports of U.S. chicken, eggs and turkey.

The U.S. agreed to Canada's insistence that the dispute settlement system – formerly known as Chapter 19 – remain in the deal. Canadian officials resolutely rejected Trump's demand to scrap provisions to resolve disagreements through international arbitration, something Ottawa has successfully used to challenge U.S. tariffs.

However, the agreement does make some changes to the more controversial "Investor-State Dispute Settlement" powers, which critics said had allowed powerful companies and wealthy investors to invalidate local laws and court decisions through unaccountable arbitration.

The new agreement requires that signatories allow equal copyright treatment for writers, composers and others from member countries, requiring a minimum term of the author's life plus 70 years for copyrighted works.

When NAFTA took effect in 1994, e-commerce hardly existed in its current form and modernizing its provisions was a key premise of the talks. The new agreement prohibits customs duties for digitally distributed goods like software and games, e-books, music and movies.

It would also limit local governments' powers to force companies to disclose propriety source code or place restrictions on where data may be stored.

Tucked in the agreement is a provision that appears designed to stop either Canada or Mexico from seeking a better deal with Beijing. If any signatory seeks to enter into a free-trade agreement with a "non-market-economy" – read China – the other parties will then be allowed to cancel the three-country deal and replace it with a bilateral agreement.</s>World waits to see if Trump-Xi dinner brings trade peace

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — When President Donald Trump sits down for dinner Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, their table talk will undoubtedly have a global impact. What they agree on — or don't — will determine whether stock markets rise or fall, whether the world economy gets some relief from destabilizing trade tensions, and cast judgment on the wisdom of the American leader's hard-nosed trade tactics.

Trump and Xi will be seeking a way out of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies, while also saving face for their domestic audiences at home. Trump Friday expressed optimism about a deal. "There's some good signs," he said. "We'll see what happens."

The Trump-Xi meeting is set to be the marquee event of Trump's whirlwind two-day trip to Argentina for the Group of 20 Summit after the president cancelled a sit-down with Russian President Vladimir Putin over mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Trade analysts and administration officials acknowledge it won't be easy. The United States and China are locked in a dispute over their trade imbalance and Beijing's push to challenge American technological dominance. Washington accuses China of deploying predatory tactics in its tech drive, including stealing trade secrets and forcing American firms to hand over technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market.

Trump has imposed import taxes on $250 billion in Chinese products. If he can't get a deal with Xi, he's poised to more than double most of those tariffs Jan. 1. And he's threatened to expand tariffs to virtually everything China ships to the United States.

China, which has already slapped tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, is likely to retaliate, ramping up a conflict that is already rattling financial markets and causing forecasters to downgrade the outlook for global economic growth.

U.S. officials insist that the American economy is more resilient to the tumult than China's, but they remain anxious of the economic effects of a prolonged showdown — as Trump has made economic growth the benchmark by which he wants his administration judges.

It's unlikely the two countries will reach a full-blown resolution in Buenos Aires; the issues that divide them are just too difficult. What's more likely, analysts say, is that they reach a truce, buying time for more substantive talks. Whether such a cease-fire would be enough to get Trump to delay higher or expanded tariffs is unclear.

Growing concerns that the trade war will increasingly hurt corporate earnings and the U.S. economy are a key reason why U.S. stock prices have been sinking this fall.

Joining other forecasters, economists at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development last week downgraded their outlook for global economic growth next year to 3.5 percent from a previous 3.7 percent. In doing so, they cited the trade conflict as well as political uncertainty.

Trump met Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a rare trilateral meeting. The symbolism ahead of the Xi meeting was clear: the Trump administration has looked to find common cause with both nations in countering China's regional hegemony.

Earlier that day, Trump signed a revamped three-way trade deal with Canada and Mexico, fulfilling a longstanding pledge, though the agreement could face headwinds in Congress. He also held a series of formal and informal meetings and will continue those sit-downs Saturday, including with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Last spring, it looked like Beijing and Washington might have found a peaceful resolution.

In May, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the trade war "on hold" after Beijing agreed to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans and liquefied natural gas — a move that could have put a dent in China's massive trade surplus with the United States.

But the cease-fire didn't last. Facing criticism that he'd gone soft on China, Trump backed away from Mnuchin's deal and decided to proceed with tariffs.

Now a lasting peace is likely to require the Chinese to scale back their ambitions to become a technological power. Or at least curb the strong-arm tactics.

Kudlow said the administration has been "extremely disappointed" by China's engagement in trade talks but the meeting between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit could be a game-changer.

"Perhaps we can break through in Buenos Aires or not," he said.

Kudlow added that if the U.S. doesn't get "satisfactory" responses to its trade positions more tariffs will be imposed. He said Trump is "not going away."

"I hope they understand that," he said.

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania is skeptical: "This has been their business model for a while," Toomey told reporters this week. "They're not going to abandon it lightly."</s>The divisions among the world's leading economies were evident from the moment the Argentine president opened the summit Friday with a call for international cooperation to solve the planet's problems.

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — The U.S. has been blocking progress at the Group of 20 summit on fixing world trade rules, fighting climate change and tackling migration, according to European officials involved in the discussions.

The divisions among the world's leading economies were evident from the moment the Argentine president opened the summit Friday with a call for international cooperation to solve the planet's problems.

President Donald Trump sought to use the summit to make his own trade deals. Meanwhile, two men under heavy criticism from the West lately — Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — appeared to seek refuge in each other, bonding with a tough-guy hand grab as the leaders sat down around a huge round table for talks.

Security concerns also weighed on the two-day talks in Buenos Aires. Argentina's security minister said eight gasoline bombs were discovered in an area of the capital where a protest against the G-20 summit began in the afternoon.

Diplomats from the Group of 20 countries were haggling hard over a final summit statement, with deep divisions over what language to use on the Paris climate accord and the World Trade Organization.

Two European officials involved in the discussions said the U.S. was stymieing progress on both.

So an unorthodox solution emerged: Because of resistance from the Trump administration, an official in the French president's office said the statement may have language that sets the U.S. apart. For example, a draft says 19 of the participants agree on the importance of upholding the Paris climate accord, but the U.S. doesn't.

The officials said the U.S. was also blocking any mention of migration in the final statement.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly about the closed-door discussions.

Argentine President Mauricio Macri kicked off the summit by acknowledging divisions within the G-20 while urging world leaders to have a "sense of urgency" and take actions "based on shared interests."

The summit is meant to focus on issues such as labor, infrastructure, development, financial stability, climate sustainability and international commerce.

But as the gathering got underway, those themes seemed like afterthoughts, overshadowed by contentious matters from the U.S.-China trade dispute to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

European Council President Donald Tusk urged G-20 leaders to discuss "trade wars, the tragic situation in Syria and Yemen, and Russian aggression in Ukraine." He said the European Union is expected to extend sanctions on Moscow over its "totally unacceptable" seizure of Ukrainian ships and their crews near the Crimean Peninsula.

"Europe is united in its support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Tusk said, calling the standoff "a cause of great concern."

Russia and Ukraine have traded blame over the weekend ship incident — which Trump cited in canceling a much-awaited meeting with Putin at the G-20. Russia's foreign minister regretted the move, but said "love can't be forced."

Also looming large amid dozens of bilateral meetings in Buenos Aires: the gruesome slaying of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia's Istanbul consulate and how the Saudi crown prince, who is alleged to have ordered the killing, is received by world leaders.

As soon as he arrived, the crown prince was confronted by French President Emmanuel Macron, who pressed him on the Khashoggi investigation and the Saudi-backed war in Yemen.

Bin Salman told Macron not to worry, but Macron countered, "I am worried."

Saudi Arabia has denied that bin Salman played a role, but some leaders may be cool toward him to avoid seeming to legitimize a man who U.S. intelligence agencies concluded ordered the killing. Trump's administration has made clear it does not want to torpedo the longstanding U.S. relationship with Riyadh, however.

It is the prince's first significant appearance overseas since the killing. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been sharply critical of Saudi Arabia over the incident, is also in attendance.

Leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico, meanwhile, met in the morning to sign a trade deal replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement that was struck following months of tough negotiations that analysts say left a bitter taste among the partners.

Trump called the pact a "model agreement that changes the trade landscape forever."

It must still be ratified by lawmakers in all three countries, and passage in the U.S. could face a tough road in the House of Representatives after Democrats won a majority in November midterm elections.

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, whose six-year term ends Saturday, said the deal modernizes the trade framework, highlights a need for economic integration in North America and protects labor rights and the environment.

Trade agreements should "move along with the economy," Pena Nieto said.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called on Trump to remove tariffs on steel and aluminum, saying they remain a major economic obstacle.

While Trump canceled his meeting with Putin, the U.S. president was still scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but analysts were not optimistic about prospects for a major breakthrough on the two countries' trade disputes a month before U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to ramp up.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was supposed to get in to Buenos Aires early Friday, but her arrival was delayed when her plane suffered a technical problem.

British Prime Minister Theresa May's attendance at the summit marked the first time a U.K. prime minister has visited Argentina's capital. The only other prime minister to visit the country was Tony Blair, who went to Puerto Iguazu in 2001. The two countries have long been at odds over the South Atlantic islands known as the Falklands in Britain and the Malvinas in Argentina.

Argentine Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie said the recent establishment of more flights to the disputed islands was a positive development.

Regarding May's visit, he said: "Dialogue must be maintained."

"We are not withdrawing our historic claim," he added. "The focus of this opportunity is in the reestablishment of trust."</s>BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - The United States, Canada and Mexico signed a North American trade pact on Friday, and President Donald Trump brushed aside difficulties he may have in getting the deal through U.S. Congress, where the opposition Democrats will control one of its two chambers from January.

The leaders of the three countries agreed on a deal in principle to govern more than a trillion dollars of mutual trade after a year and a half of acrimonious negotiations concluded with a late-night bargain just an hour before a deadline on Sept. 30.

Friday’s signing potentially ends a big source of irritation for the U.S. administration as it pivots to a much bigger trade fight with China that threatens the global economy. All eyes are on a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday after a G20 summit in Buenos Aires.

Canada and Mexico bickered with the United States over the wording and the finer points of the trilateral deal and still had not agreed just hours before officials were due to sit down and sign it as the G20 summit kicks off in Buenos Aires.

“It’s been long and hard. We’ve taken a lot of barbs and a little abuse and we got there,” Trump said after the signing. “It’s been a battle and battles sometimes make great friendships.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau still had a few barbs of his own on Friday. He called the deal by its old name NAFTA, prodded Trump over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and said General Motors Co’s (GM.N) decision to cut production and its North American workforce, including in Canada, was a “heavy blow.”

“Donald, it’s all the more reason why we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum between our two countries,” Trudeau said.

Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto, who awarded Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, with Mexico’s highest order for foreigners, was warmer. On his last day in office, he said the new deal was forged with the “firm belief that we are stronger and more competitive.”

Legislators from the three countries still have to approve the pact, officially known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), before it goes into effect and replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

But the U.S. trade landscape will shift significantly in January when Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January after winning midterm elections in November. House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi has pledged to “closely scrutinize” the new pact.

However, Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Friday they were confident the agreement would pass Congress.

“It’s been so well reviewed I don’t expect to have very much of a problem,” Trump said.

Trump had vowed to revamp NAFTA during his 2016 presidential election campaign. He threatened to tear it up and withdraw the U.S. completely at times during the negotiation, which would have left trade between the three neighbors in disarray.

Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the 24-year-old agreement because he said the existing pact encouraged U.S. companies to move jobs to low-wage Mexico.

U.S. objections to Canada’s protected internal market for dairy products was a major challenge facing negotiators during the talks, and Trump repeatedly demanded concessions and accused Canada of hurting U.S. farmers.

BDI, Germany’s main industry association, said in a statement the agreement’s rules on preferential origin for the automotive sector would be stricter and more complex, calling it “a retrograde step compared with NAFTA.”</s>BUENOS AIRES: The United States, Canada and Mexico signed a North American trade pact on Friday, and President Donald Trump predicted an easy passage through U.S. Congress to approve the deal, despite opposition from some lawmakers.

The three leaders agreed on a deal in principle to govern the more than trillion dollars of mutual trade after a year and a half of acrimonious negotiations concluded with a late-night bargain just an hour before a deadline on Sept. 30.

Since then, the three sides have bickered over the wording and the finer points of the deal and still had not agreed just hours before officials were due to sit down and sign it as the G20 summit kicks off in Buenos Aires.

"It’s been long and hard. We’ve taken a lot of barbs and a little abuse and we got there," Trump said.

Legislators from the three countries still have to approve the pact, officially known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), before it goes into effect and replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

But the U.S. trade landscape will shift significantly in January when Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after winning midterm elections in November. House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has pledged to "closely scrutinize" the new pact.

However, Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Lightizer said they were confident the agreement would pass Congress.

"This was negotiated from the beginning to be a bipartisan agreement.... I think we’ll get the support of a lot of Democrats," he told reporters.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's spokesman only confirmed his attendance late on Thursday. Before signing the deal he continued to refer to as the new NAFTA, Trudeau told Trump the two should continue to work together to eliminate steel and aluminum tariffs.

Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto joined the ceremony on his last day in office.

Trump had vowed to revamp NAFTA during his 2016 presidential election campaign. He threatened to tear it up and withdraw the U.S. completely at times during the negotiation, which would have left trade between the three neighbors in disarray.

Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the 24-year-old agreement because he said the existing pact encouraged U.S. companies to move jobs to low-wage Mexico.

U.S. objections to Canada's protected internal market for dairy products was a major challenge facing negotiators during the talks, and Trump repeatedly demanded concessions and accused Canada of hurting U.S. farmers.

BDI, Germany's main industry association, said in a statement the agreement's rules on preferential origin for the automotive sector would be stricter and more complex, calling it "a retrograde step compared with NAFTA."
The United States, Canada and Mexico sign the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement in Buenos Aires, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.