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A leading Social Democrat on Saturday predicted 55 percent or more of SPD members would back a renewed coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, and warned that a 'no' vote would spell disaster for the party, Germany and Europe.

BERLIN: A leading Social Democrat on Saturday predicted 55 percent or more of SPD members would back a renewed coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, and warned that a 'no' vote would spell disaster for the party, Germany and Europe.

Thomas Oppermann, vice president of the Bundestag lower house of parliament, told Die Welt newspaper that he expected a "clear approval" rate of 55 percent in an SPD postal ballot that ended on Friday, with results to be unveiled on Sunday.

The SPD's 464,000 members must vote on whether to endorse a decision by party leaders to continue the "grand coalition" with Merkel's conservative bloc that has ruled since 2013 despite the SPD's significant losses in the September national election.

Rejection of another tie-up with conservatives "would be a disaster for Germany, the SPD and above all, for Europe," Oppermann said.

The SPD's Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after the party suffered its worst results since 1993 in the September poll.

Oppermann gave the Jusos credit for triggering a big debate in the party, and said he expected its leader, Kevin Kuehnert, to continue to make his mark on the party.

He said the SPD needed to be more "self-confident, cheeky and ready for conflict" in the next coalition government.

"The biggest risk would be that we repeat what we did the last time," he said, warning that a passive SPD stance could result in even worse election results after four years.

The SPD initially planned to stay in opposition, but agreed to negotiate with Merkel's conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FD) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain, that new elections would be the best solution if SPD members voted 'no.' He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved.

He said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Merkel was forced to form a minority government, but added: "Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway."

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the CSU Bavarian sister party of Merkel's Christian Democrats, also backed new elections if SPD members rejected another 'grand coalition,' arguing that a minority government would impair Germany's standing in Europe.

"Germany would remove itself as a serious factor in Europe and the world," he said.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany will learn on Sunday whether the Social Democrat (SPD) party's 464,000 members have voted in favor of a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, opening the way to a new government for Europe's economic powerhouse.

 Five months after an inconclusive election, and after the failure of Merkel's first attempt to form a government with two smaller parties, the long-serving chancellor's best hope of securing a fourth term lies with the SPD.

 Volunteers began counting the postal ballots at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT) and worked through the night, with party leaders due to announce at 9 a.m. whether Germany's longest post-election interregnum is over.

 A "No" from a membership that is wary of repeating the bruising experience of the past four years of "grand coalition" would pitch Germany into greater uncertainty at a time when the European Union is looking to its largest country for leadership on a host of economic and security issues.

 SPD acting leader Olaf Scholz said on Saturday turn-out in the poll had been "very, very high" after an intense internal campaign that pitted the party's pro-coalition leadership against its more radical youth wing, which campaigned for "No".

 The SPD initially planned to go into opposition after a disastrous result in September's election, but agreed to negotiate with Merkel's conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

 They thrashed out a coalition agreement which SPD leaders hailed for its commitments to strengthening the EU and giving them some key government roles. But opponents say the SPD risks irrelevance if it plays second fiddle to Merkel again.

 If members vote "Yes", Merkel could be sworn in as Chancellor by mid-March. A rejection would hand the initiative to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who could push for a minority government, further talks or a new election.

 FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain that another election would be the best solution if SPD members voted 'No.' He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved.

 He said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Merkel was forced to form a minority government, but added: "Such a government would probably only last a few months."

 

 

 (Editing by Janet Lawrence)</s>BERLIN, March 4 (Reuters) - Germany will learn on Sunday whether the Social Democrat (SPD) party's 464,000 members have voted in favour of a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, opening the way to a new government for Europe's economic powerhouse.

Five months after an inconclusive election, and after the failure of Merkel's first attempt to form a government with two smaller parties, the long-serving chancellor's best hope of securing a fourth term lies with the SPD.

Volunteers began counting the postal ballots at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT) and worked through the night, with party leaders due to announce at 9 a.m. whether Germany's longest post-election interregnum is over.

A "No" from a membership that is wary of repeating the bruising experience of the past four years of "grand coalition" would pitch Germany into greater uncertainty at a time when the European Union is looking to its largest country for leadership on a host of economic and security issues.

SPD acting leader Olaf Scholz said on Saturday turn-out in the poll had been "very, very high" after an intense internal campaign that pitted the party's pro-coalition leadership against its more radical youth wing, which campaigned for "No".

The SPD initially planned to go into opposition after a disastrous result in September's election, but agreed to negotiate with Merkel's conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

They thrashed out a coalition agreement which SPD leaders hailed for its commitments to strengthening the EU and giving them some key government roles. But opponents say the SPD risks irrelevance if it plays second fiddle to Merkel again.

If members vote "Yes", Merkel could be sworn in as Chancellor by mid-March. A rejection would hand the initiative to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who could push for a minority government, further talks or a new election.

FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain that another election would be the best solution if SPD members voted 'No.' He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved.

He said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Merkel was forced to form a minority government, but added: "Such a government would probably only last a few months." (Editing by Janet Lawrence)</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) began counting the votes of hundreds of thousands of party members who will decide if a new coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel takes office, more than five months after a general election.

With the SPD’s 464,000 members promised the final say on whether to enter a new“grand coalition” with her conservatives, 120 volunteers arrived at party headquarters to count the truckloads of ballots delivered on Saturday afternoon.

“We already know there will have been a very, very high level of participation,” said the SPD’s acting leader Olaf Scholz as he arrived ahead of the count.

His colleague Andrea Nahles said she was hopeful for a“Yes” vote but admitted to feeling“a bit nervous”. Volunteers, having surrendered their phones, will conduct the count in strict secrecy. An announcement is expected at 9 am local time on Sunday.

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, has faced months of uncertainty after voters returned a fragmented parliament. An earlier attempt to form a Merkel-led three-way coalition collapsed.

At the urging of President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD’s then leader Martin Schulz promised members the final say on whether to repeat a“grand coalition” with Merkel’s conservatives after first announcing he would lead the party into opposition.

Rejection of another tie-up with the conservatives“would be a disaster for Germany, the SPD and, above all, for Europe,” SPD lawmaker Thomas Oppermann told Die Welt newspaper, forecasting that 55 percent of members would back a coalition.

Merkel has seen several junior coalition partners come and go over 12 years in office, and many fear the SPD could dwindle into irrelevance if it props up her government for another four years.

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after the party’s drubbing in the September election.

A“No” vote would throw the ball back into Steinmeier’s court, who could push the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), whose leader Christian Lindner torpedoed the earlier three-way talks, to have another go.

But Lindner told the Funke newspaper group, a new election would be the best solution if SPD members voted‘No’.

On another option, a Merkel-led minority government, he said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis, but added:“Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway.”

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the Bavarian CSU, sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), also favored a new election in the event of an SPD“No” vote, arguing a minority government would impair Germany’s standing in Europe.

“Germany would remove itself as a serious factor in Europe and the world,” he said.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany and Europe would both suffer if the Social Democrats (SPD) vote‘no’ in a ballot on a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, a senior party official said.

The SPD’s 464,000 members have been voting in a postal ballot on whether to endorse their party leadership’s decision to renew for another four years the‘grand coalition’ with Merkel’s conservative bloc that took office in 2013. The result is due on Sunday.

Stephan Weil, SPD premier of the state of Lower Saxony, said during his last visit to Brussels everyone he had spoken to was adamant Germany should not drift into uncertainty.

“It would be bad for Europe, Germany and the SPD. There would be a period of political uncertainty,” he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron is keen to push ahead with reforms to the euro zone, but without a German government in place soon the window of opportunity to inject fresh dynamism into the European project will quickly close for this year.

Asked in an interview with daily Die Welt if an SPD‘no’ vote would result in a national crisis, Weil said:“No, I wouldn’t go that far, but many people’s confidence in our political system would erode even further.”

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after suffering a battering in last September’s election.

Weil conceded that if he were a Jusos member he would think about voting‘no’, but decades of party membership had convinced him the SPD should solve its problems itself rather than use them as a reason not to take part in government.

Merkel’s conservatives entered into coalition talks with the SPD this year after talks with two smaller parties on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

Jens Spahn, a member of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) who has been critical of her at times, said the coalition agreement conservative and SPD leaders struck last month“is no furious firework of innovation”.

“The coalition agreement is a large compromise document,” Spahn, who is due to become health minister if the coalition takes office, told Handelsblatt business daily.

Spahn’s lukewarm support for the coalition deal highlights the risk that the alliance proves fractious and unstable.

The inclusion in the deal of a clause that envisages a review of the next government’s progress after two years has fuelled a debate about a succession plan for a post-Merkel era.

On Monday, Merkel ally Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer won election as CDU general secretary, putting her in pole position to succeed the chancellor after spending most of her career in a tiny state on the French border.

Spahn said he would support Merkel for the full legislative period and she should remain CDU leader through to 2021.</s>When Dietmar Nietan, treasurer of the German Social Democrats, takes the stage at the party’s Berlin headquarters at 9am today, the world will be watching closely – but the thoughts of his fellow functionaries will already be wandering to the challenges of the weeks ahead.

If Nietan announces that members of Germany’s centre-left party have voted against a coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the country will be plunged into political chaos and questions will arise over the future of a chancellor who can no longer organise political alliances.

If, as expected, Nietan reports a yes vote, it will end five months of political paralysis in Europe’s largest economy, but also pile pressure on the Social Democrats to reverse the party’s freefall in the polls and stop the erosion of one of the two central pillars of Germany’s postwar order.

Both of the SPD’s previous coalitions with Merkel as a senior partner have ended in the party recording historically poor results in national polls. This time around, senior members want to try a different, more aggressive formula. They hope to have found a suitably combative new figurehead in Andrea Nahles, a former leader of the Young Socialist youth wing. She has a leftwing slant, a reputation as a forceful orator, and once mocked Merkel by singing a version of the Pippi Longstocking theme song in the Bundestag.

Nahles, who is likely to take over leadership of Europe’s oldest social democratic party from Martin Schulz at a summit in April, faces the challenge of taking the fight to a conservative CDU that shares the government benches with her party colleagues.

A former labour minister, she is not expected to take up a role in the next cabinet, and would therefore have a freer rein to use her rhetorical skills in a parliament shaken by the arrival of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the first overtly nationalist party in the Bundestag for half a century.

While the AfD will become the biggest opposition party in the event of a grand coalition, the presence of the rightwing populists has also encouraged liberal and leftwing parties to up their game. Clips of verbal sparring acts are now going viral in a way that used to be rare in the staid world of German politics.

The SPD is already priming its first weapon for the fightback: last Friday the party submitted a draft law to scrap paragraph 219a of the German penal code, which currently criminalises the “advertising” of abortion services. The proposal is likely to be opposed by a CDU with strong Catholic support, and could see just the sort of public clash that Nahles needs to raise her profile.

But if the success of the German centre-left’s new strategy is up in the air, it’s because the challenge is nothing short of existential. Weeks of coalition talks have seen the AfD overtake the SPD to claim second place behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats in some polls.

The former Social Democrat finance minister Peer Steinbrück said last Friday: “Like the Socialists in France, the SPD is in danger of caring more about anti-discrimination and lifestyle issues than the concerns of the majority of the population.” Among its working-class base, the SPD is haemorrhaging votes to the far right. In the town of Cottbus, near the Polish border, the Social Democrats were the strongest force as recently as 2014. But tensions between locals and refugees have harmed the SPD more than the CDU: in a poll last week the party lost 17 percentage points, and the AfD came top with 29%.

“Every recent grand coalition has weakened the SPD and strengthened the far right”, said the Cologne-based film-maker and SPD member Steve Hudson, who led a campaign for a no vote. “The next one could end in the death of the Social Democratic party in Germany.”

Support for the centre-left among young and middle-class voters also seems to be draining away, either to leftwing Die Linke, which topped a recent poll for the 2021 Berlin state elections, or to the Green party, which is remaking itself under a new liberal-centrist leadership.

“The SPD’s problem is that it is no longer the strongest party in socially relevant circles,” said political scientist and SPD expert Gero Neugebauer. “It has ceded ground to Die Linke and the AfD among the workers, and is losing votes to the Greens amongst the bourgeoisie.

“They say they need to deal with the threat of the new right, but their problem is less the AfD than a lack of answers on the issues the AfD is thriving on. The SPD, like the whole of German politics, is still struggling to identify what the challenges of globalisation really are.”</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) were preparing on Saturday to count the votes of hundreds of thousands of party members who will decide if a new coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel will take office more than four months after an election.

“We already know there will have been a very, very high level of participation,” said the SPD’s acting leader Olaf Scholz as he arrived at the party’s Berlin headquarters where volunteers will count the postal ballots overnight.

His colleague Andrea Nahles said she was hopeful, but added:“Naturally I’m a bit nervous.”

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, has faced months of uncertainty after voters returned a fragmented parliament. An earlier attempt to form a Merkel-led three-way coalition collapsed.

At the urging of President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD’s then leader Martin Schulz promised members the final say on whether to repeat a“grand coalition” with Merkel’s conservatives after first announcing he would lead the party into opposition.

Rejection of another tie-up with the conservatives“would be a disaster for Germany, the SPD and, above all, for Europe,” SPD lawmaker Thomas Oppermann told Die Welt newspaper, forecasting that 55 percent of members would back a coalition.

Merkel has seen several junior coalition partners off over 12 years in office and many fear the SPD could dwindle into irrelevance if it props up her government for another four years.

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after the party’s drubbing in the September election.

A“No” vote would throw the ball back into Steinmeier’s court, who could push the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), whose leader Christian Lindner torpedoed the earlier three-way talks, to have another go.

But Lindner told the Funke newspaper group, a new election would be the best solution if SPD members voted‘No’.

On another option, a Merkel-led minority government, he said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis, but added:“Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway.”

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the Bavarian CSU, sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), also favoured a new election in the event of a“No”, arguing a minority government would impair Germany’s standing in Europe.

“Germany would remove itself as a serious factor in Europe and the world,” he said.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - The result of a ballot of the Social Democrats’ (SPD) roughly 464,000 members on whether to join a coalition with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc that would end political limbo in Europe’s largest economy will be announced on Sunday.

The outcome of the vote is unclear. A poll released on Wednesday showed 56 percent of SPD voters favored another tie-up with Merkel but it surveyed a far broader group than the party members taking part in the decisive ballot.

The SPD’s Barbara Hendricks, who is environment minister in Germany’s outgoing coalition, said on Thursday she expected members to back a new alliance with Merkel’s conservatives by a margin of 60 percent.

But Kevin Kuehnert, leader of the SPD’s youth wing, told Reuters on Friday he was optimistic that party members would reject such an alliance.

Many senior figures in Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) want to try out a minority government if the SPD members reject a‘grand coalition’.

In November - after the collapse of coalition talks with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and ecologist Greens - Merkel said she would prefer a new election to leading a minority government. But she has since been more guarded on that issue.

Many in the Christian Social Union (CSU) - the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s CDU - along with many in the SPD want a new election if SPD members vote‘No’ to a grand coalition.

Here is an outline of what will happen if SPD delegates vote against coalition talks.

* The onus shifts to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to decide how to proceed. He would meet with Merkel and could urge her to try to form another coalition. She could try to build a three-way alliance of the conservatives, FDP and the Greens. But these unnatural partners are unlikely to want to join forces after their initial attempt at building an alliance collapsed in November when the FDP spectacularly walked out of talks, eroding trust between them.

* Merkel - or another candidate if her conservatives take the unlikely decision to oust her - could decide to head up a minority government in what would be a post-war first for Germany. If she were to form such a government, the procedure would be as follows:

* Steinmeier would set a date for a‘chancellor vote’ in the Bundestag lower house of parliament and suggest Merkel run. If she gets an absolute majority, she becomes chancellor.

* If she fails to get an absolute majority in that first round of voting, another vote can be held within 14 days.

* If she fails to get an absolute majority in the second round, a third vote is held. If she gets a plurality in that vote, Steinmeier would need to appoint her chancellor within seven days. If she does not get a plurality, Steimeier would have seven days to decide whether to appoint her as a minority chancellor or dissolve parliament and call a new election.

* If Steinmeier were to call a new election, it would have to take place within 60 days. While Merkel’s personal ratings are slipping, she has said she would want to run for the conservatives if another poll is held.

* Once Merkel has become chancellor, she could ask for a confidence vote in parliament. She could force a new election by urging her allies and other lawmakers to vote against her.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - A leading Social Democrat on Saturday predicted 55 percent or more of SPD members would back a renewed coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, and warned that a‘no’ vote would spell disaster for the party, Germany and Europe.

Thomas Oppermann, vice president of the Bundestag lower house of parliament, told Die Welt newspaper that he expected a“clear approval” rate of 55 percent in an SPD postal ballot that ended on Friday, with results to be unveiled on Sunday.

The SPD’s 464,000 members must vote on whether to endorse a decision by party leaders to continue the“grand coalition” with Merkel’s conservative bloc that has ruled since 2013 despite the SPD’s significant losses in the September national election.

Rejection of another tie-up with conservatives“would be a disaster for Germany, the SPD and above all, for Europe,” Oppermann said.

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after the party suffered its worst results since 1993 in the September poll.

Oppermann gave the Jusos credit for triggering a big debate in the party, and said he expected its leader, Kevin Kuehnert, to continue to make his mark on the party.

He said the SPD needed to be more“self-confident, cheeky and ready for conflict” in the next coalition government.

“The biggest risk would be that we repeat what we did the last time,” he said, warning that a passive SPD stance could result in even worse election results after four years.

The SPD initially planned to stay in opposition, but agreed to negotiate with Merkel’s conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FD) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain, that new elections would be the best solution if SPD members voted‘no.’ He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved.

He said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Merkel was forced to form a minority government, but added:“Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway.”

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the CSU Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, also backed new elections if SPD members rejected another‘grand coalition,’ arguing that a minority government would impair Germany’s standing in Europe.

“Germany would remove itself as a serious factor in Europe and the world,” he said.</s>BERLIN (Reuters) - The result of a ballot of the Social Democrats’ (SPD) roughly 464,000 members on whether to join a coalition with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc that would end political limbo in Europe’s largest economy will be announced on Sunday.

A postal ballot paper of one of Germany's 464,000 Social Democrats (SPD) is pictured, as a party member votes on whether the party should go ahead with the coalition agreement its leaders clinched this month with Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic party (CDU/CSU) in Berlin, Germany, February 21, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

The outcome of the vote is unclear. A poll released on Wednesday showed 56 percent of SPD voters favored another tie-up with Merkel but it surveyed a far broader group than the party members taking part in the decisive ballot.

The SPD’s Barbara Hendricks, who is environment minister in Germany’s outgoing coalition, said on Thursday she expected members to back a new alliance with Merkel’s conservatives by a margin of 60 percent.

But Kevin Kuehnert, leader of the SPD’s youth wing, told Reuters on Friday he was optimistic that party members would reject such an alliance.

Many senior figures in Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) want to try out a minority government if the SPD members reject a ‘grand coalition’.

In November - after the collapse of coalition talks with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and ecologist Greens - Merkel said she would prefer a new election to leading a minority government. But she has since been more guarded on that issue.

Many in the Christian Social Union (CSU) - the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s CDU - along with many in the SPD want a new election if SPD members vote ‘No’ to a grand coalition.

Here is an outline of what will happen if SPD delegates vote against coalition talks.

* The onus shifts to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to decide how to proceed. He would meet with Merkel and could urge her to try to form another coalition. She could try to build a three-way alliance of the conservatives, FDP and the Greens. But these unnatural partners are unlikely to want to join forces after their initial attempt at building an alliance collapsed in November when the FDP spectacularly walked out of talks, eroding trust between them.

* Merkel - or another candidate if her conservatives take the unlikely decision to oust her - could decide to head up a minority government in what would be a post-war first for Germany. If she were to form such a government, the procedure would be as follows:

* Steinmeier would set a date for a ‘chancellor vote’ in the Bundestag lower house of parliament and suggest Merkel run. If she gets an absolute majority, she becomes chancellor.

* If she fails to get an absolute majority in that first round of voting, another vote can be held within 14 days.

* If she fails to get an absolute majority in the second round, a third vote is held. If she gets a plurality in that vote, Steinmeier would need to appoint her chancellor within seven days. If she does not get a plurality, Steimeier would have seven days to decide whether to appoint her as a minority chancellor or dissolve parliament and call a new election.

* If Steinmeier were to call a new election, it would have to take place within 60 days. While Merkel’s personal ratings are slipping, she has said she would want to run for the conservatives if another poll is held.

* Once Merkel has become chancellor, she could ask for a confidence vote in parliament. She could force a new election by urging her allies and other lawmakers to vote against her.
Postal ballots of the 2018 SPD coalition party member vote are due. The vote will determine if the SPD is allowed to form a coalition with Angela Merkel's CDU.