With Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visiting Russia, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming that they have a lot of problems with US foreign policy that they intend to bring up, and while Syria had long been expected to dominate that list, the statement insisted North Korea was Russia primary concern right now.

The statement said Russia was “extremely worried” that the United States might follow through on recent talk of imposing a unilateral military solution on the Korean Peninsula, saying they want to understand US intentions and how they are reconciled with the UN Security Council’s own statements on denuclearization in Korea.

With US warships heading to the Korean Peninsula, the Trump Administration has been treating North Korea as a bilateral issue between the US and China, insisting that either China will agree to “solve” North Korea for them, or that the US will do so itself.

With North Korea having an active nuclear weapons program, such a war is potentially a hugely transformative one for the world, not just for the Korean Peninsula and its immediate surroundings. Indeed, Russian territory is right across the border at any rate, which means its unsurprising they are also concerned what the fallout of a hasty US military action would be.
• US Threatens Further Attacks on Syria - April 11th, 2017
• Trump: North Korea 'Looking for Trouble,' US Will 'Solve the Problem' - April 11th, 2017</s>PYONGYANG – North Korea’s Dictator Kim Jong-un denounced the United States Tuesday for deploying a naval strike group near the Korean peninsula amid rising regional tensions.

“This goes to prove that the US reckless moves for invading [North Korea] have reached a serious phase,” a North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson said.

The spokesperson added North Korea “is ready to react to any mode of war desired by the US”

Following another missile test by North Korea, a US naval strike group cancelled a planned trip to Australia and embarked to the Korean peninsula in a show of force to Pyongyang.

US President Donald Trump asked his advisers this week for a range of options to deal with North Korea as the country pursues a nuclear weapons programme.

On Tuesday, South Korean leader Hwang Kyo-ahn warned Pyongyang may soon conduct another nuclear test to coincide with upcoming North Korean anniversaries, including the 105th birthday of its founding leader, Kim Il Sung.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Donald Trump in a phone call on Wednesday that Beijing is willing to work with Washington on ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, but wants a peaceful solution.

Xi told Trump that China insists on peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and wants to find a solution to the problem through peaceful means.

Trump and other US officials have repeatedly called on China to leverage its status as North Korea’s biggest economic partner and source of food and fuel aid to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

However, Beijing also says it will not countenance measures that could bring about a collapse of the regime that could release a flood of refugees across its border, destabilize northeast Asia and result in a US-friendly government taking power in Pyongyang.</s>PYONGYANG, Korea, Democratic People’s Republic Of — North Korea has vowed to bolster its defences to protect itself against airstrikes like the ones U.S. President Donald Trump ordered against an air base in Syria.

The North called the airstrikes “absolutely unpardonable” and said they prove its nuclear weapons are justified to protect the country against Washington’s “evermore reckless moves for a war.”

The comments were made by a Foreign Ministry official and carried Sunday by North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency. The report did not name the official, which is common in KCNA reports.

The airstrikes, announced shortly after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up dinner at a two-day summit in Florida last week, were retaliation against Syrian President Bashar Assad for a chemical weapons attack against civilians caught up in his country’s long civil war.

“Some forces are loud-mouthed that the recent U.S. military attack on Syria is an action of warning us but we are not frightened by it,” the report said, adding that the North’s “tremendous military muscle with a nuclear force as its pivot” will foil any aggression by the U.S.

“We will bolster up in every way our capability for self-defence to cope with the U.S. evermore reckless moves for a war and defend ourselves with our own force,” it said.

North Korea has long claimed that the United States is preparing to conduct similar precision strikes against its territory or even launch an all-out invasion. It claims its nuclear weapons are a necessary deterrent to the U.S. military threat.

Washington denies it has any intention of invading the North.

Tensions have been even higher than usual over the past few weeks because annual war games between the U.S. and South Korean militaries are underway. The exercises this year are the biggest ever and have included stealth fighter training and other manoeuvrs that are particularly sensitive to North Korea.

For its part, the North test-launched a ballistic missile just ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and has been rumoured to be preparing for a possible nuclear test.

The Korean Peninsula remains technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with an armistice, not a formal peace treaty.

North Korea considers Syria an ally. But unlike Syria, experts warn that North Korea has a means of striking back if provoked.

Along with its rapidly advancing nuclear and long-range missile capabilities, the North has its artillery and short-range missiles trained on Seoul, the capital of U.S. ally South Korea and a city of more than 10 million people.</s>As a U.S. Navy “armada” steamed toward the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump over the phone, reiterating the need for a peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear standoff.

“China insists on realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula … and is willing to maintain communication and coordination with the American side over the issue on the peninsula,” Xi said, according to state broadcaster CCTV and other official media outlets.

The phone call, which China’s Foreign Ministry said had been initiated by Trump, came amid growing concerns that the U.S. was eyeing military action to rein in the North’s nuclear weapons and missile programs.

On Tuesday, Trump had dangled the offer of a “far better” trade deal with China if Beijing “solves” the nuclear issue, but said the United States was willing to go it alone amid surging tensions in Northeast Asia.

“I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!” Trump wrote on Twitter in reference to his summit last week with Xi, the two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting.

Just minutes later, the U.S. president, who has touted his abilities as a deal-making businessman and had slammed Beijing as “raping” America on trade, took a tougher line.

“North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.” Trump wrote.

Trump has repeatedly said China has the power to bring the North to heel over its nuclear weapons program, including in an interview with the Financial Times earlier this month.

“China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone,” Trump said, according to an edited transcript published by the newspaper.

Those remarks came ahead of the summit with Xi, who vowed at the talks to bolster cooperation with the U.S. on the North issue. Beijing, however, has persistently called for multilateral talks to resolve the standoff and remains staunchly opposed to the use of force.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have soared in recent months as the North has continued its tests of powerful missiles and engines despite United Nations sanctions prohibiting them from doing so.

Asked about the tweets, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said Trump had put Pyongyang “on notice” that its missile tests were “not tolerable.”

“The last thing we want to see is a nuclear North Korea that threatens the coast of the United States, or, for that matter, any other country,” Spicer said. “So we need stability in that region, and I think he has put them clearly on notice.”

Trump’s “tweets are dangerous as they are often plain wrong in terms of contents,” said Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of politics at International Christian University in Tokyo. Nagy cited tweets by Trump claiming his predecessor, President Barack Obama had wiretapped him, among other dubious claims.

“It plays well to his supporters but demonstrates the disconnect between policy and these 140 character pronouncements,” Nagy added. “They also contradict his national security team and long-held U.S. approaches to diplomacy.

“China already has shifted its approach to tweets, focusing on patience and observation of action rather than tweets,” he said.

Kerry Brown, a professor of China studies at King’s College in London, said any kind of deal with the U.S. on North Korea was a long shot.

“There is no deal that China can do on North Korea,” Brown said. “It regards it as in its strategic space. An attack on North Korea is therefore an attack on China.”

Brown called attention to the fact that while the current Chinese leadership may view Pyongyang with disdain, North Korea is China’s only treaty ally.

“It was willing to go to war with North Korea in 1950 when the People’s Republic of China had just been established,” he said. “That history is a deep and close one. … The history matters. They would be horrified at the idea of an America being able to unilaterally interfere in their most intimate strategic space. They would not allow this to happen.”

Trump’s Twitter barrage came a day after North Korea blasted the United States for rerouting the USS Carl Vinson-led aircraft carrier strike group to waters off the Korean Peninsula, saying it is “ready to react to any mode of war.”

The state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that the dispatch of the strike group showed that “the U.S. reckless moves for invading the DPRK have reached a serious phase of its scenario.”

DPRK is the acronym for the North’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“If the U.S. dares opt for a military action, crying out for ‘preemptive attack’ and ‘removal of the headquarters,’ the DPRK is ready to react to any mode of war desired by the U.S.,” the spokesman said.

The U.S. Navy’s Pacific Command re-routed the carrier group, which departed Singapore on Saturday, from planned port calls in Australia amid Pyongyang’s spate of recent missile launches and apparent signs of a sixth nuclear test. The Carl Vinson strike group, led by the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier of the same name, includes two guided-missile destroyers and a guided-missile cruiser.

Trump described the strike group in an interview Tuesday with the Fox Business Network as “an armada.”

“We are sending an armada. Very powerful,” he said. “We have submarines. Very powerful. Far more powerful than the aircraft carrier. That I can tell you.”

Carrier strike groups are generally accompanied by submarines, although this is normally not publicized by the Pentagon.

Referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Trump said: “He is doing the wrong thing.” Asked if he thought Kim was mentally fit, Trump replied: “I don’t know. I don’t know him.”

Separately, Spicer, the White House spokesman, called the strike group’s re-routing “prudent” — a word that has become the Trump administration’s go-to phrase in describing the move.

“It does a lot of things,” Spiced said. “It ensures … we have the strategic capabilities, and it gives the president options in the region.”

Defense Secretary James Mattis echoed Spicer on Tuesday, calling the decision the “most prudent” at this time. Mattis, however, said there was not “a specific … signal or specific reason why we’re sending her up there,” a message that clashed with earlier statements from the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Command, which had alluded to the North’s provocations as the reason behind the change in plans.

The decision to re-route the Vinson group came just days after U.S. cruise missiles struck Syria. Those strikes were widely interpreted as an implicit message to Pyongyang that the White House is not ruling out unilateral military attacks on the Kim regime.

The Trump administration has said that all options — including military action — are on the table.

While U.S. carrier deployments to the Western Pacific are not unusual, the Carl Vinson visited South Korea just last month for annual joint military exercises. South Korean media reports said the strike group was due to arrive the same week Pyongyang marks the April 15 anniversary of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung’s birth, an event where it is likely to flaunt its military might, possibly with its sixth nuclear test or a military parade showcasing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The North is also set to mark the army’s foundation day on April 25. Pyongyang has a long history of using such anniversaries to flex its military muscle.

According to analyses of recent commercial satellite imagery, the North has also been making apparent preparations for an atomic test.

China’s state-run Global Times newspaper, which is known for its strident nationalistic tone, said in an editorial that a new nuclear test would be a “slap in the face of the U.S. government,” adding that Beijing would not “remain indifferent” to further provocations.

Pyongyang has so far staged five nuclear tests — two of them last year, including its most powerful to date.

“Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang’s new nuclear actions,” the newspaper said, adding there was increasing popular support for “severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before.”

The stark language suggested Beijing, Pyongyang’s only major ally and its economic lifeline, could put a chokehold on the North by restricting oil imports to the North.

“The U.S. is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests, it doesn’t plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang,” the paper said.

“Pyongyang should avoid making mistakes at this time,” it added.

There has been growing speculation that Pyongyang will conduct an ICBM test soon — possibly this month — after Kim used a New Year’s Day address to claim that the North was in the final stages of developing such a weapon.

Last week, the North test-fired a missile into the Sea of Japan that was believed to have traveled just “tens of kilometers,” the Japanese government said.

That launch was the latest in a spate of tests this year, including the near-simultaneous firing of four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan last month — a move the North said was a rehearsal for attacking U.S. bases in Japan. Those missiles, three of which fell into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, flew about 1,000 km. Abe characterized that test as “a new level of threat.”

Missile experts said the hypothetical target of that drill appeared to be U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Yamaguchi Prefecture. Observers said the undisguised threat to U.S. bases in Japan was rare, even for Pyongyang, which routinely serves up colorful invectives.

Pyongyang has conducted more than 20 missile launches and two nuclear tests over the past year as it seeks to master the technology needed to mount a warhead on a long-range ballistic missile capable of striking the continental United States.</s>Chinese President Xi Jinping today urged Donald Trump to peacefully resolve raging tensions over North Korea’s nuclear programme after the US President warned that Washington would “solve the problem” on its own if Beijing did not rein in its close ally. Xi spoke over phone to Trump as a United States aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Carl Vinson churned towards the Korean peninsula, raising regional tensions. He said that China sticks to the target of the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and that China is committed to peace and stability of the peninsula.

China holds that the issue should be solved through peaceful means, said Xi, adding that Beijing is ready to maintain communication and coordination with the US on the issue, the state media reported, days after the two leaders met for the first time in Florida.

Trump has repeatedly called on China to do more to rein in its reclusive neighbour and close ally, which has stepped up its missile development and nuclear programme since 2016.

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Xi’s phone call came after Trump turned to Twitter to vent his frustrations over North Korea’s provocative behaviour.

“I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem,” he had tweeted yesterday.

“North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.,” Trump had said in a second tweet.

Following the Trump-Xi meeting, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had said that China understood how dangerous North Korea’s nuclear programme had become and had agreed action must be taken to stop it.

China has not signaled any clear change in policy towards Pyongyang and Xi’s language followed China’s usual script on North Korea.

However, Wednesday’s read-out was the first time China confirmed in detail that the two leaders had directly discussed North Korea, CNN commented.

Two Chinese statements released directly after the Mar-A- Lago meeting did not mention North Korea by name, even though the country had been expected to dominate discussions, it said.

Meanwhile, Trump has also commented on the armada that the US has deployed to the Korean peninsula.

“We are sending an armada. Very powerful,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network. “We have submarines. Very powerful. Far more powerful than the aircraft carrier.”

A series of provocative North Korean missile tests have stoked fears in Washington that Pyongyang may soon have an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the US mainland.

North Korea is also reported to be preparing to test a nuclear weapon in the coming days.

The US show of force prompted the North to declare it was “ready to react to any mode of war desired by the US.”

“This goes to prove that the US reckless moves for invading the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have reached a serious phase,” North Korea’s official news agency KCNA quoted a spokesman of the country’s foreign ministry as saying.</s>NORTH Korea is continuing to talk tough with the US, this time promising its “grim action” is going to bring “catastrophic consequences” to the world.

Officials in Pyongyang have provided a statement to CNN on the build-up of US naval forces near the Korean Peninsula in an attempt to justify the dictatorship’s “self-defensive and pre-emptive strike capabilities with the nuclear force at the core”.

American forces announced on Sunday that the USS Carl Vinson, loaded with fighter jets, had been pulled from its planned military exercises in Australia and ordered towards the Korean Peninsula. Three guided-missile destroyers and cruisers joined the armada, which left from Singapore on Saturday.

Pyongyang has described the situation as “grim”, according to the CNN statement.

“We will make the US fully accountable for the catastrophic consequences that may be brought about by its highhanded and outrageous acts,” it read.

According to military and intelligence sources who spoke to The New York Times, the US’s show of force was timed around the most important day on the North Korean calendar, the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, who founded the nation and is the late grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un.

North Korea is less than impressed. In an earlier response to America’s naval movements, the regime’s foreign ministry said the “reckless moves for invading the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] have reached a serious phase”. It also issued the warning that it was ready for war, AFP reported.

“The DPRK is ready to react to any mode of war desired by the US,” North Korea’s state-run news agency said.

The rogue state has a history of launching missiles and taking provocative actions on Kim Il-sung’s birthday, and satellite imagery suggests Kim Jong-un might take the opportunity to flex his military muscles on April 15.

There is speculation that Pyongyang will mark the occasion with by testing missiles or detonating a nuclear device.

South Korea’s top nuclear envoy Kim Hong-Kyun has backed up the theory, warning that the North may stage a “strategic provocation” to mark the date.

The US has notified Australia that it is prepared to shoot down any missiles launched on Saturday and the Pine Gap military intelligence base in central Australia is on standby, The Daily Telegraph reports.

US President Donald Trump is emboldened after his widely endorsed air strike against a Syria last week, where he ordered 59 Tomahawk missiles to bomb an air base in response to a chemical weapons attack in the country that killed more than 80 civilians, including children.

However, the US strike against Syria was unlikely to deter Kim Jong-un from developing his nuclear weapons program, former Pentagon official Daniel Goure told US news channel CNBC.

“If you are the North Korean leader, you say, ‘Wow, I could be next’,” said Mr Goure, who is now a spokesman for defence think tank the Lexington Institute.

“For them, I think the answer is straight forward — you can’t trust the Americans.”

He said the situation on the Korean Peninsula was “hugely near the tipping point”.

“It’s quite possible it could be a very intense, bloody war,” he said.

Meanwhile, another expert has warned that any US strike against the isolated nation could trigger a much larger military conflict that draws in China or Japan.

“The upside is that the United States may be able to denuclearise the North by force … but it will come at a huge cost to the region and to the United States,” Asan Institute for Policy Studies analyst James Kim told AFP.

North Korea has denounced the attack on Syria as an act of “intolerable aggression”.

Meanwhile, China and South Korea have agreed that there should be “strong” new measures to punish the North if it pushes ahead with nuclear weapons testing.

Mr Trump is yet to make any public comments about the movement of the US warships, but his Syrian missile strike is being interpreted as a warning to North Korea.

The President’s chief national security adviser, HR McMaster, said the Korean strategy was aimed to give the President a “full range of options to remove that threat to the American people and to our allies and partners in the region”.

General McMaster said North Korea was “a rogue regime that is now a nuclear capable regime”.

“What must happen is the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula,” General McMaster told Fox News Sunday.

“North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behaviour.”

US Pacific Command spokesman Dave Benham told AFP the diversion of the warships was a “prudent” move due to North Korea’s “reckless, irresponsible and destabilising program of missile tests and pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability”.

Pyongyang is on a mission to develop a long-range missile capable of hitting the US mainland.</s>Upping the stakes in its slow-burning confrontation with North Korea, the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the region this week in a show of force that also could expose American weakness. If the North proceeds with a ballistic missile or nuclear test and the U.S. does nothing in response, America’s deterrence will appear diminished.

The USS Carl Vinson is steaming to waters off the Korean Peninsula as anticipation mounts that Kim Jong Un will stage another weapons test around the anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the nation’s founder, on Saturday. Another potential date: An April 25 celebration of its armed forces.

Tensions are high on the divided peninsula. The North sees U.S.-South Korea war games as preparations for an invasion. The U.S. and its allies have expressed alarm about Pyongyang’s recent ballistic missile launches, including a four-rocket salvo last month it described as a practice to strike U.S. bases in Japan. Washington’s ultimate concern is the North’s developing ability to mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile, which it should be able to master in the next few years.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said sending the Vinson was “prudent.”

And Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, decided not to come to Washington for congressional hearings this month, his office said Tuesday, suggesting he had to stay for a potentially hazardous situation under his command. U.S. defense officials said that didn’t mean military action was imminent. A similar decision was made amid tensions in 2013.

But the Vinson’s presence near North Korea points to the larger challenge for the U.S. of deterrence, which has to be backed by the real threat of force. No one has spoken of shooting down a North Korean missile unless it directly threatens the U.S. or its allies in East Asia. And Kim is likely to be undeterred to conduct tests because he has made nuclear weapons development a national priority, seeing them as a guarantee against U.S.-backed regime changes that have toppled authoritarian regimes in Iraq, Libya and elsewhere.

President Donald Trump’s policy toward the North Korean threat is still taking shape. The emphasis has been on pressing China to use its economic leverage to rein in its wayward ally. When Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Trump in Florida last week, the U.S. urged China to block North Korea’s access to the international financial system by cracking down on banks and companies that deal with it.

But the Trump administration has been unusually outspoken about retaining pre-emptive military options against North Korea. The president has issued repeated, ambiguous warnings about his willingness to take unilateral actions — a threat that assumed new resonance after he ordered a missile strike against Syria last week over its alleged use of chemical weapons. The order was issued during Xi’s visit.

“North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.,” Trump tweeted Tuesday.

The United States periodically deploys aircraft carrier strike groups to waters near the Korean Peninsula to retain a naval presence and project power in the Asia-Pacific region. The Carl Vinson took part last month in the ongoing U.S.-South Korea war games.

President Barack Obama also ordered an aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula in a show of force in November 2010 after North Korea launched a deadly artillery barrage on the South. Then, the fear was a conflagration at the heavily militarized border.

Washington now views the threat as one against the U.S. itself, as North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs approach the capacity to reach the U.S. mainland. That has raised the question of whether the U.S. would be prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile. Doing so would be a real-world test of America’s uncertain missile defense capabilities.

The Carl Vinson is accompanied by a destroyer ship with an Aegis combat system to track and intercept missiles.

John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the Harvard Kennedy School, said if North Korea went ahead with a missile test to mark this weekend’s anniversary, there would be questions if the U.S. was in the region but did not try to stop it. If it uses the Aegis system, a failure would hurt the system’s credibility.

That would also alarm allies Japan and South Korea, which also have the Aegis.

Even if the U.S. used the missile defense system successfully, the question would be how Pyongyang responds.

Escalation into a full-blown conflict would leave South Korea’s capital, 40 km from the heavily militarized border, vulnerable to the North’s artillery and rockets. Nearly 30,000 U.S. forces in South Korea, many accompanied by families, would also be in the firing line.

In a statement Tuesday, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the aircraft carrier deployment “goes to prove that the U.S. reckless moves for invading … have reached a serious phase.”</s>The recent U.S. missile strike on Syria has, of course, renewed the possibility of a major U.S.-led war in the Middle East, so soon after the last one — the invasion of Iraq launched in 2003 — ended so bitterly.

That conflict was a disaster and is now widely recognized as such, even by those who originally supported it (myself included). Whole books have been written about the political and intelligence failures behind that fatally flawed assumption. But it occurred to me recently that, 14 years after the U.S. began its “shock and awe” campaign over Baghdad, a distressingly familiar situation is playing out. I’m not sure we’re any wiser for the agony of the last war.

As I write this, huge quantities of troops and military materiel are on the move in the Pacific. A U.S. carrier battle group is heading for the Korean Peninsula, joined now by Japanese warships. South Korean forces are on their usual high state of alert along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that divides the South from North Korea.

China is said to have begun moving troops and equipment to its border with the North, in case a war between the U.S. and North Korea sends millions of refugees streaming for the safety of China.

READ MORE: North Korea warns of nuclear attack on U.S. if provoked, state media says

It’s a very, very unnerving situation — and so familiar. The concerns the U.S. have today closely mirror those they had in Iraq 14 years ago: an unpredictable, anti-Western leader atop a corrupt regime, a weapons of mass destruction program, sworn antipathy to the U.S., openly hostile relations with key U.S. allies in the region.

READ MORE: North Korea calls U.S. strikes on Syria an ‘unforgivable act of aggression’

But there’s a key difference: we know North Korea has weapons of mass destruction. The country has detonated atomic bombs, appears to be working on the technical steps required to field much more powerful hydrogen bombs and is working, slowly but with increasing success, to develop the long-range missiles required to threaten the U.S. and its allies with direct nuclear attack.

North Korea’s nuclear program is incredibly dangerous — for all the same reasons that Saddam’s would have been, and Iran’s might still be.

It’s also well understood that the country is politically unstable — better now, perhaps, than it was when wracked by brutal famines, but only marginally. Kim Jong-un might be a madman, he might be a shrewd operator, he might be a puppet of the military. No one really knows. That mystery is dangerous.

U.S. President Donald Trump seems keen to do something to break the decades-long impasse. Not only has he moved his naval forces closer to North Korea, he’s also deployed U.S. missile defence systems to South Korea, in response to earlier North Korean missile launches — tests, officially, but clearly also shots across America’s bow.

WATCH: Rex Tillerson says China agrees North Korea poses certain level of threat

The U.S. is reportedly leaning hard on China to help deal with North Korea, in some fashion, and its diplomacy has taken a decided turn to the hawkish. Earlier this month, after yet another missile launch, the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson put out perhaps the tersest statement in American diplomatic history: “North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment.”

The president, for his part, tweeted on Tuesday:

WATCH: White House ‘continues to be concerned’ by North Korea missile tests

The entire thing has the feel of a slow-motion slide into some kind of confrontation, possibly even a war. We don’t know for sure that North Korea would effectively be able to use its nuclear weapons in battle — both their missiles and warheads seem to have a lot of unresolved technical issues. But they’d only need to get lucky once to do incredible damage, and their conventional military is more than powerful enough to bring ruin and destruction to much of South Korea. War with the North, unless ended quickly by a sudden collapse (or decapitation) of the regime, could be devastating.

Even so, I can’t help but feel that the time, in a grim way, has come. Better to deal with North Korea now, when the U.S. is strong and President Trump committed than let the regime continue to fester in its own backwardness while perfecting its missiles and bombs.

North Korea is probably the most intractable diplomatic conundrum in the world today. The notion that the U.S. — alone, with allies or with China’s support — can simply stroll in and “fix” this mess is naive.

The epically bungled Iraq war was easy compared to what North Korea would be. And yet, how long can this endure? Does delay make conflict less likely, or simply make the ultimate showdown worse? Twenty or 50 years from now, after a war that sees Tokyo and San Francisco flattened by a dying North Korean regime’s last futile act of madness, will the survivors look back at us in 2017 and wonder what the hell we were waiting for?

WATCH: China urges US to remain ‘coolheaded’ with North Korea

My instincts tell me yes — that it’s better to act today than wait for a miracle tomorrow. But in the back of my mind, there’s another voice. It reminds me that that’s what all the hawks said about Iraq, and that that war has gone down as one of the worst mistakes ever made. It reminds me especially that Iraq, in the end, was a country with almost no ability to defend itself when the U.S. invasion began, and little ability to threaten its neighbours. That is not the case with North Korea.

Is this voice of caution, in fact, the voice of reason? Or is it just self-doubt, the voice that has led to decades of officials in more than one country to allow the North Korean situation to fester to where it is today?

I don’t know. But it doesn’t really matter. It’s not my view that will decide, but President Donald Trump’s. Perhaps he’s simply negotiating hard, hoping that either North Korea or China will blink and break the impasse. Perhaps he’s decided that the status quo isn’t working, and that he’s the guy to break the logjam.

If so, I would support him. The time to do something seems right — if only because the options get bleaker from here. But I learned in the years after 2003 that the case for intervention often seems hollow in the midst of the aftermath. We may be about to rediscover that again.

Matt Gurney is host of The Morning Show on Toronto’s Talk Radio AM640 and a columnist for Global News.</s>WASHINGTON (AP) — Upping the stakes in its slow-burning confrontation with North Korea, the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the region this week in a show of force that also could expose American weakness. If the North proceeds with a ballistic missile or nuclear test and the U.S. does nothing in response, America's deterrence will appear diminished.

The USS Carl Vinson is steaming to waters off the Korean Peninsula as anticipation mounts that Kim Jong Un will stage another weapons test around the anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the nation's founder, on Saturday. Another potential date: An April 25 celebration of its armed forces.

Tensions are high on the divided peninsula. The North sees U.S.-South Korea war games as preparations for an invasion. The U.S. and its allies have expressed alarm about Pyongyang's recent ballistic missile launches, including a four-rocket salvo last month it described as a practice to strike U.S. bases in Japan. Washington's ultimate concern is the North's developing ability to mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile, which it should be able to master in the next few years.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said sending the Vinson was "prudent."

And Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, decided not to come to Washington for congressional hearings this month, his office said Tuesday, suggesting he had to stay for a potentially hazardous situation under his command. U.S. defense officials said that didn't mean military action was imminent. A similar decision was made amid tensions in 2013.

But the Vinson's presence near North Korea points to the larger challenge for the U.S. of deterrence, which has to be backed by the real threat of force. No one has spoken of shooting down a North Korean missile unless it directly threatens the U.S. or its allies in East Asia. And Kim is likely to be undeterred to conduct tests because he has made nuclear weapons development a national priority, seeing them as a guarantee against U.S.-backed regime changes that have toppled authoritarian regimes in Iraq, Libya and elsewhere.

President Donald Trump's policy toward the North Korean threat is still taking shape. The emphasis has been on pressing China to use its economic leverage to rein in its wayward ally. When Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Trump in Florida last week, the U.S. urged China to block North Korea's access to the international financial system by cracking down on banks and companies that deal with it.

But the Trump administration has been unusually outspoken about retaining pre-emptive military options against North Korea. The president has issued repeated, ambiguous warnings about his willingness to take unilateral actions — a threat that assumed new resonance after he ordered a missile strike against Syria last week over its alleged use of chemical weapons. The order was issued during Xi's visit.

"North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.," Trump tweeted Tuesday.

The United States periodically deploys aircraft carrier strike groups to waters near the Korean Peninsula to retain a naval presence and project power in the Asia-Pacific region. The Carl Vinson took part last month in the ongoing U.S.-South Korea war games.

President Barack Obama also ordered an aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula in a show of force in November 2010 after North Korea launched a deadly artillery barrage on the South. Then, the fear was a conflagration at the heavily militarized border.

Washington now views the threat as one against the U.S. itself, as North Korea's nuclear and missile programs approach the capacity to reach the U.S. mainland. That has raised the question of whether the U.S. would be prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile. Doing so would be a real-world test of America's uncertain missile defense capabilities.

The Carl Vinson is accompanied by a destroyer ship with an Aegis combat system to track and intercept missiles.

John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the Harvard Kennedy School, said if North Korea went ahead with a missile test to mark this weekend's anniversary, there would be questions if the U.S. was in the region but did not try to stop it. If it uses the Aegis system, a failure would hurt the system's credibility.

That would also alarm allies Japan and South Korea, which also have the Aegis.

Even if the U.S. used the missile defense system successfully, the question would be how Pyongyang responds.

Escalation into a full-blown conflict would leave South Korea's capital, 25 miles from the heavily militarized border, vulnerable to the North's artillery and rockets. Nearly 30,000 U.S. forces in South Korea, many accompanied by families, would also be in the firing line.

In a statement Tuesday, North Korea's Foreign Ministry said the aircraft carrier deployment "goes to prove that the U.S. reckless moves for invading ... have reached a serious phase."</s>WASHINGTON, DC — Upping the stakes in its slow-burning confrontation with North Korea, the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the region this week in a show of force that also could expose American weakness. If the North proceeds with a ballistic missile or nuclear test and the US does nothing in response, America’s deterrence will appear diminished.

The USS Carl Vinson is steaming to waters off the Korean Peninsula as anticipation mounts that Kim Jong Un will stage another weapons test around the anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the nation’s founder, on Saturday. Another potential date: An April 25 celebration of its armed forces.

Tensions are high on the divided peninsula. The North sees US-South Korea war games as preparations for an invasion. The US and its allies have expressed alarm about Pyongyang’s recent ballistic missile launches, including a four-rocket salvo last month it described as a practice to strike US bases in Japan. Washington’s ultimate concern is the North’s developing ability to mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile, which it should be able to master in the next few years.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said sending the Vinson was “prudent.”

And Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, commander of US forces in South Korea, decided not to come to Washington for congressional hearings this month, his office said Tuesday, suggesting he had to stay for a potentially hazardous situation under his command. US defense officials said that didn’t mean military action was imminent. A similar decision was made amid tensions in 2013.

But the Vinson’s presence near North Korea points to the larger challenge for the US of deterrence, which has to be backed by the real threat of force. No one has spoken of shooting down a North Korean missile unless it directly threatens the US or its allies in East Asia. And Kim is likely to be undeterred to conduct tests because he has made nuclear weapons development a national priority, seeing them as a guarantee against US-backed regime changes that have toppled authoritarian regimes in Iraq, Libya and elsewhere.

President Donald Trump’s policy toward the North Korean threat is still taking shape. The emphasis has been on pressing China to use its economic leverage to rein in its wayward ally. When Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Trump in Florida last week, the US urged China to block North Korea’s access to the international financial system by cracking down on banks and companies that deal with it.

But the Trump administration has been unusually outspoken about retaining pre-emptive military options against North Korea. The president has issued repeated, ambiguous warnings about his willingness to take unilateral actions – a threat that assumed new resonance after he ordered a missile strike against Syria last week over its alleged use of chemical weapons. The order was issued during Xi’s visit.

“North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.,” Trump tweeted Tuesday.

The United States periodically deploys aircraft carrier strike groups to waters near the Korean Peninsula to retain a naval presence and project power in the Asia-Pacific region. The Carl Vinson took part last month in the ongoing US-South Korea war games.

President Barack Obama also ordered an aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula in a show of force in November 2010 after North Korea launched a deadly artillery barrage on the South. Then, the fear was a conflagration at the heavily militarized border.

Washington now views the threat as one against the US itself, as North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs approach the capacity to reach the US mainland. That has raised the question of whether the US would be prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile. Doing so would be a real-world test of America’s uncertain missile defense capabilities.

The Carl Vinson is accompanied by a destroyer ship with an Aegis combat system to track and intercept missiles.

John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the Harvard Kennedy School, said if North Korea went ahead with a missile test to mark this weekend’s anniversary, there would be questions if the US was in the region but did not try to stop it. If it uses the Aegis system, a failure would hurt the system’s credibility.

That would also alarm allies Japan and South Korea, which also have the Aegis.

Even if the US used the missile defense system successfully, the question would be how Pyongyang responds.

Escalation into a full-blown conflict would leave South Korea’s capital, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the heavily militarized border, vulnerable to the North’s artillery and rockets. Nearly 30,000 US forces in South Korea, many accompanied by families, would also be in the firing line.

In a statement Tuesday, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the aircraft carrier deployment “goes to prove that the US reckless moves for invading … have reached a serious phase.”
North Korea announces its readiness to declare war on the United States after the country previously stated that they felt threatened as U.S. military forces approach the Korean Peninsula.