text: George Osborne's economic record will come under fresh scrutiny with data expected to show growth slowed at the start of 2015. Experts predict that the economy will have grown by 0.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, down from 0.9 per cent in the same period in 2014. The Tories have stepped up their warnings about the risk to the economy, warning Britain is 'staring down the barrel' of higher taxes and regulations for businesses if Labour wins the election. Experts predict that the economy will have grown by 0.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, down from 0.9 per cent in the same period in 2014 . The latest growth figures will be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow morning, just nine days before voters go to the polls. Latest figures showed that the economy grew by 2.8 per cent in the whole of 2014, its strongest pace since 2006. It confirmed the UK as the fastest growing of the G7 major advanced economies last year. But since then official monthly figures have shown a dismal start to 2015 for much of the economy. Industrial production had a flat first couple of months while construction contracted in both January and February, according to the ONS. Separate figures today showed that factory output slowed to its weakest level in more than two years in the three months to April, held back by sluggish export orders. The CBI Industrial Trends survey said the strong pound and eurozone uncertainty helped drag down total output volumes to the lowest level since January 2013. Overall, total orders in the period moved from a balance of zero to plus one, lifted by domestic orders which rose modestly. However, economists had forecast a bigger rise. Chancellor George Osborne today visited George Bence and Sons, a construction supply firm in Cheltenham, Gloucester where he met company worker Alan Phillips . Mr Osborne also saw paint being mixed at the company, as he warned against a change in economic direction . Mr Osborne said small firms want him to 'finish the job and warn against a change which is far too risky and would undo all the good work of the last five years' The Tories were boosted today by a letter signed by 5,000 small businesses backing their economic plan. Mr Osborne said the firms 'say we need to finish the job and warn against a change which is far too risky and would undo all the good work of the last five years'. Campaigning in the South West, he said: 'We'll introduce law to ensure no one working 30 hours on the Minimum Wage pays any Income Tax at all, benefiting over 2.5million people in the South West.' The Chancellor promised his first Budget would set out increased funding for the NHS and 'protect incomes for pensioners with the triple lock'. Tory leader David Cameron today cast the Conservatives as the party of 'the small businesses, the entrepreneurs, the techies, the roof tilers, the retailers, the plumbers, the builders' and said a Tory Government would continue delivering the 'pro-business environment' which small companies want, which would be at risk if Ed Miliband wins on May 7. Unveiling the Tories' small business manifesto in London, Mr Cameron warned: 'Labour think they know how to spend your money better than you do. They will put up your taxes. Labour think they know how to run your businesses better than you do. They will put up your regulations. 'You know what they call you? They say business is a predator. This is not some Arnold Schwarzenegger movie. This is what we are staring down the barrel of in 10 days' time if we don't get out there and fight for jobs and fight for enterprise and fight for our economy, and that's what we are going to do.' He added: "If you think I'm going to roll over in the next 10 days and let Ed Miliband and Alex Salmond wreck that, you've got another think coming. We have got a fight on our hands and I am going to win that fight. It's a battle for the backbone of Britain, that's what this election is about." If tomorrow's figures show lower levels of growth it is likely that interest rates will remain at their record low for even longer. In an impassioned speech to activists in London today, David Cameron insisted he was 'pumped up' for the election battle . The jacketless PM used a deliberate display of anger to prove that he is 'pumped up', as activists and owners of small businesses gathered around him at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in London . The Bank of England is unlikely to increase the cost of borrowing until next year for fear of hampering the recovery. Scotiabank's Alan Clarke said he was pessimistic on growth, expecting it to decelerate to 0.4 per cent for the first quarter, adding that he 'wouldn't rule out an even lower number'. But he said the second quarter should be much stronger. Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics said: 'The first estimate of GDP seems likely to show that the recovery slowed in Q1 and may therefore put the coalition parties on the back foot just nine days before the General Election. 'Nonetheless, we doubt that the recovery is on the cusp of a slowdown. Households' incomes are on track for their strongest growth since 2006 this year. 'Meanwhile, borrowing costs are falling and monetary stimulus appears to have revived the eurozone economy.' Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said he expected a slowdown to 0.5%, saying it would be 'very unwelcome' for coalition parties 'hoping that many undecided voters will ultimately decide to vote for them due to their management of the economy'. 'However, we believe growth prospects are still decent for the UK economy as long as there is not prolonged political uncertainty following the General Election. 'The fundamentals look particularly promising for consumer spending. 'Extended low oil prices and generally limited input prices should boost companies' margins and be supportive to business investment along with a generally healthy economic environment and improved profitability.' A new survey by Lord Ashcroft had the Tories on 36 per cent, with Labour trailing on 30 per cent, Ukip on 11 per cent and the Lib Dems on 9 per cent . The Tories could be six points ahead of Labour, or three points behind, depending on which opinion poll to believe. The latest batch of surveys agree on only one thing: the result is probably too close to call. David Cameron's day will have been brightened by a six-point lead in a survey by Lord Ashcroft. The Tories are on 36 per cent, with Labour trailing on 30 per cent, Ukip on 11 per cent and the Lib Dems on 9 per cent. Another poll by ICM for the Guardian also gave Mr Cameron's party a lead, but of only three points lead on 35 per cent to 32 per cent for Labour. However, the Sun's YouGov poll had Labour in the lead on 34 per cent to the Tories' 33 per cent, indicating that the battle for No 10 remains agonisingly close for the party leaders. Labour enjoyed a three-point lead in a Populus poll, on 36 per cent (up one point) to the Conservatives' 33 per cent (up one). North of the border, a TNS poll found Scottish National Party support continuing to surge to 54 per cent, almost two-and-a-half times Labour's 22 per cent.
target: Office for National Statistics to release growth data for first quarter of 2015 .
  Experts expect growth to be 0.5%, down from 0.9% in same period in 2014 .
  Chancellor George Osborne boasts that firms back his economic plan .