text: Both exercises show that each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely war plans in mind. Whilst spokespeople may maintain that these operations are targeted against hypothetical opponents, the nature and scale of them indicate otherwise: Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia. 
   
   We do not suggest that the leadership of either side has made a decision to go to war or that a military conflict between the two is inevitable, but that the changed profile of exercises is a fact and it does play a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe. These tensions are further aggravated and elevated into a sense of unpredictability when the exercises are not pre-notified or publicly announced beforehand, as is apparently the case with a number of Russian exercises. 
   
   In our view, the implementation of the following four recommendations could help to defuse or at least minimize the tensions connected with the increased frequency and scale of the military exercises now taking place: ||||| Intensified military exercises by Russia and NATO are fueling tensions in Europe that have already been heightened by the conflict in Ukraine, a research group said. 
   
   While Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization call the drills defensive, they may treat each other’s actions “as provocative and deliberate aggravation,” worsening mistrust, according to a report Wednesday by the London-based European Leadership Network. The two sides are readying in case of confrontation, it said. 
   
   The former Cold War foes have stepped up military activity, especially near the Baltic region, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year. The war in Ukraine has prompted NATO to create command units across eastern Europe, while Russia has recalibrated its military goals toward the transatlantic alliance, which it accuses of approaching its borders. 
   
   “We don’t suggest that the leadership of either side has made a decision to go to war or that a military conflict between the two is inevitable,” the ELN said. Even so, “the changed profile of exercises is a fact and it does play a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe.” 
   
   NATO and Russia should communicate better on plans to hold military drills to lessen the risk of incidents, according to the ELN. It recommended limiting exercises in border areas. 
   
   Neither Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov nor his deputy Andrei Bobrun replied to phone calls made by Bloomberg. 
   
   ‘Well Ahead’ 
   
   The ELN report “misleadingly puts NATO and Russian exercises on par,” Carmen Romero, the military alliance’s deputy spokeswoman, said by e-mail. 
   
   The authorities in Moscow have announced more than 4,000 drills this year, more than 10-fold NATO’s plans, and Russian exercises have also involved nuclear and nuclear-capable forces, according to Romero. NATO is “well ahead” of the ELN’s recommendations, she said. 
   
   “The scale and scope of Russia’s exercises are far beyond anything the alliance is doing and they are increasing tensions across the region,” Romero said. “Russia is deliberately avoiding military transparency and predictability.” 
   
   President Vladimir Putin last month approved Russia’s new naval doctrine that puts greater focus on the Atlantic and the Arctic to counter NATO’s activity near its borders. 
   
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   The U.S.-led alliance has tried to calm nerves of late. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last month that he doesn’t see an immediate threat to the alliance’s members. NATO plans to reduce by half the number of aircraft deployed for air patrols in the Baltic region, whose skies have seen a surge in Russian activity. ||||| This post has been updated to include a response to the report from NATO. 
   
   MOSCOW – The Russian military exercises in March spanned the nation’s vast territory – from the high north, far above the Arctic Circle, all the way to territories near Japan. Massive NATO drills a few months later pulled thousands of troops across Europe. After decades of post-Cold War calm, Europe is again becoming a region of high military drama – and according to some experts, a place with a growing risk of accidental confrontation. 
   
   Russian soldiers woke in early March to unannounced, snap exercises that eventually grew to encompass more than 80,000 service members. Above the Barents Sea, strategic bombers practiced attacks. Near the Latvian border, airborne troops performed landings as attack helicopters and artillery gave them cover. In the Baltic Sea, the Russian Navy practiced with missiles. 
   
   The training was on such a large scale that it could only have been practicing for what would happen during a war with the U.S.-led NATO defense alliance, according to the European Leadership Network, which on Wednesday published a report looking at the increased military exercises on both sides of the Russia-West divide. 
   
   The Russian exercises: 
   
   The Northern Fleet: Conducts mine-sweeping, anti-submarine and air defense operations in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. Strategic bombers practice attacks with fighter support and airborne units simulate helicopter landings in combat areas. Naval fighters simulate interceptions of enemy aircraft. Kola Peninsula and Arctic Islands: Airborne and ground units from the interior are redeployed to the Kola Peninsula. Airborne troops land on Russia’s Arctic Islands. The Baltic Sea fleet: Performed search and destroy simulations, air defense tactics, missile and artillery practice. Naval aviation units conduct night training. Ground units perform nighttime live-fire exercises. Airborne operations: Airborne troops perform landings near the Latvian border while attack helicopters and artillery conduct fire support for ground forces. The Black Sea Fleet: Conducts search and destroy simulations, anti-submarine and mine sweeping operations. Marines practice live-fire exercises. Eastern Front: Ground units conduct simulated combat operations on Sakhalin and Kuril islands. 
   
   NATO has also been practicing in eastern Europe, though on a smaller scale. Its Allied Shield exercises in June brought together 15,000 service members from 19 member nations and three partners, and it has stepped up exercises in reaction to Russian threats as a way, NATO leaders say, of deterring Kremlin aggression. 
   
   But with communications links between the two sides frayed, intentions can quickly be misread, raising the risk of accidental confrontation, the European Leadership Network argues. And with tensions at their highest since the Cold War – but without Cold-War-era lifelines for communication – there is a greater chance for unpleasant surprises. Already, there have been near-misses with Russian military aircraft getting dangerously close to civilian jetliners above the Baltic Sea. 
   
   The NATO exercises: 
   
   BALTOPS 15: Baltic Sea naval exercise focusing on amphibious operations in Sweden and Poland. Consisted of 49 ships, 61 aircraft, 1 submarine and 700 landing troops. Operations were conducted near Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. Saber Strike 15: Large-scale armored and airborne live-fire operations with close air support involving 6,000 troops in Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Estonia. Trident Joust: Exercises focus on coordination large-scale allied operations and the redeployment of NATO headquarters to the area of those operations. Noble Jump: First deployment of NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force which is to provide a rapid response to infiltration of an allied territory by enemy special forces and irregular personnel. Over 2,100 troops from nine NATO states participated. 
   
   The risk of escalation is high, with each side watching the other train, and concluding that even more military exercises are necessary. 
   
   “The changed profile of these exercises is a fact and plays a role in sustaining the current climate of fear and tension in Europe,” wrote Ian Kearns, one of the report’s authors. 
   
   The group is pushing for more direct links between the two sides, warning each other about the exercises. In the longer run, it says, new arms control efforts would help quell tensions. 
   
   NATO has argued that its exercises are simply a defense deterrent, aimed at communicating the alliance’s determination to fight on behalf of nations such as the Baltics that feel threatened by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. 
   
   Russia’s "exercises are part of a more aggressive Russian military doctrine," said NATO deputy spokeswoman Carmen Romero in a statement in response to the report. "In response, NATO has increased its presence in the eastern part of our alliance, in order to enhance collective defense." 
   
   She added: "Russia has consistently refused all NATO offers for greater military transparency, dating back to well before the current crisis." 
   
   Russian leaders, meanwhile, have long complained of NATO’s expansion to their borders and say that it is a threat to Russia’s own security interests. Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the risk of NATO expansion into Ukraine as one of the reasons last year that he annexed the Crimean Peninsula, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. They, too, may be seeking to deter what they see as an increasingly active alliance – although it did not spark back into life in eastern Europe until after the Russian takeover of Crimea. 
   
   The back-and-forth is a "dangerous dynamic," the report’s authors write. 
   
   For now, neither side appears likely to back down. 
   
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   U.S. military vehicles paraded 300 yards from the Russian border
target: – Like a game of Risk, Russia and NATO have not only been suspiciously eying each other in recent months, but also conducting military exercises in border areas that the Washington Post says are making Europe "a region of high military drama." Now a UK-based think tank is warning that these war games could lead to real conflict if they don't start communicating and scaling down their activities, the Guardian reports. The European Leadership Network says that although reps from both sides may insist these training exercises—including a flurry of activity in March for Russia and in June for NATO, per the Post—are against hypothetical opponents, it's clear there are definite foes in mind, and that alleviative measures need to take place ASAP to stave off a possible confrontation. "Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia," the report asserts, adding that even though this doesn't make a real conflict unavoidable, it helps perpetuate tension in the region—especially thick since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The organization's recommendation: Tamp down the size and scale of said exercises, start hammering out a new treaty on limiting the types of weapons used along the borders, and publicly announce beforehand when exercises are being held (Russia is pointed out as a prime offender in this regard). But a NATO rep told Bloomberg that the ELN report "misleadingly puts NATO and Russian exercises on par" and that "the scale and scope of Russia's exercises are far beyond anything the alliance is doing. Russia is deliberately avoiding military transparency and predictability." (NATO's got its hands full with ISIS, too.)