text: South Korea is set to become the world leader in life expectancy by the end of the next decade. And the United States? Well, it’s poised to lag behind other wealthy countries when it comes to progress in longevity. 
   
   In a new study published in The Lancet, researchers predict that average life expectancy will reach beyond 90 years for South Korean women by 2030. Men there will also see big gains. 
   
   A handful of other wealthy countries will get closer to becoming centenarians too, but these improvements won’t be spread evenly. America, in particular, won’t be doing nearly as well against its economic peers. 
   
   It’s yet another example of the importance of equitable access to health care — something South Korea and many other developed countries have managed to provide their citizens while the US continues to falter. 
   
   For the study, researchers at the Imperial College London, the World Health Organization, Northumbria University, and the University of Washington developed a new model for predicting future life expectancy in 35 countries using 21 forecasting projections. Most impressively, they found that in South Korea, life expectancy in women could jump from 84 in 2010 to 91 by 2030. In France, Japan, and Spain, female life expectancy is expected to hit at least 88 or 89 years, up from around 85. 
   
   Men in South Korea, as well as Australia and Switzerland, are also expected to lead the world in life expectancy, living to about 84 by 2030, with Canada, Spain, New Zealand, and the Netherlands following closely. 
   
   The US, by contrast, is among the countries in the study with the smallest boost, with similarly small gains in Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia. In 2010, life expectancy for American men was 76, and for women, 81. In 2030, men here can expect to live to 79 and women 83 — increases of just a couple of years. 
   
   “Notable among poor-performing countries is the USA,” the researchers wrote, “whose life expectancy at birth is already lower than most other high-income countries, and is projected to fall further behind such that its 2030 life expectancy at birth might be similar to the Czech Republic for men, and Croatia and Mexico for women.” 
   
   And the prediction for the US may be too generous. The researchers only looked at data until 2013, so they didn’t account for the downturn in life expectancy that happened in the US in 2015 — the first such decline since the early 1990s. If the researchers updated their data to include that decrease, study author James Bennett said it’s likely they might have found an even lower life expectancy prediction for America. 
   
   The Lancet study is, of course, a modeling exercise, and unforeseen events like an epidemic will affect the numbers. So will changes to Obamacare: A repeal could take health insurance away from some 20 million Americans, and contribute to more deaths than gun homicides, HIV, and skin cancer. 
   
   The US–South Korea gap is astounding 
   
   As we’ve reported, there’s already a widening health disparity in the US — the outlier among rich nations in that it doesn’t offer its citizens universal health care. “This means that some groups are getting left behind and it’s pulling the average down,” said Bennett, a researcher in the department of epidemiology and biostatistics at Imperial College London. 
   
   The US has lagged behind its peers in increases in life expectancy (for both men and women) for at least a decade, despite gains from the 1970s to early 2000s. During that time, deaths from alcohol, drug use, and mental health disorders have risen dramatically in many parts of the country, while progress on heart disease has been stalling. (After peaking in 1985, heart disease deaths fell dramatically — but there has been an uptick since 2010, as you can see in this study.) The US also has some of the highest obesity, homicide, and infant and maternal mortality rates in the developed world. 
   
   If you use South Korea as a reference point, the contrast again is astounding. In 1960, the life expectancy for the average South Korean was only 53 years. But over the years, the country has made remarkable progress: South Koreans are now expected to live as long as 82 years — nearly four years longer than the average American. 
   
   The major reasons for the gains in South Korea — as in most rich countries — are reductions in infant mortality and cardiovascular diseases (particularly stroke), as well as declines in stomach cancers. These improvements were accompanied by rapid economic growth over the past 50 years, with gross national income per capita rising from less than US$100 in 1960 to $20,045 by 2007. 
   
   Bennett pointed out that “Korea got a lot of things right” when it comes to health care access, which is why the increases in longevity have been so widespread. “[South Korea] has had economic improvements, which has led to improved nutrition and access to health care and medical technology across the whole population,” he explained. Unlike the US, “South Korea is very equitable, all the way across the population,” he added. 
   
   What makes this example particularly striking is that on average, citizens in the US are far wealthier than South Koreans — the average income of someone in the US is $55,980, which is more than double the average income in South Korea. But for all its wealth over the past century, the US still hasn’t cracked health. 
   
   Watch: The top reason people die early in each country ||||| (CNN) Average life expectancy will increase globally by 2030, both at birth and at the age of 65, according to a new study. 
   
   The two time points help define when lifespans in a population are extending due to improvements in maternal and child health as well as improved adult health. 
   
   The average for women at birth will exceed 85 years in many countries, but South Korea is projected to lead the way with a life expectancy of 90.8 years. 
   
   In 2015, global average life expectancy at birth was 71.4 years, according to the World Health Organization. 
   
   Unhealthier lifestyles among men, including higher rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, have long meant a greater life expectancy for women, say the researchers. 
   
   Life expectancy among men born in South Korea in 2030 is therefore predicted to be 84.1 years, according to the study, published Tuesday in the Lancet. 
   
   But the study authors believe this gap between the sexes is now shrinking as lifestyles become more similar. 
   
   "The biggest result is that ... at least one group is going to break the 90-year barrier," said Majid Ezzati, professor of global environmental health at Imperial College London, referring to the predictions among South Korean women. Ezzati led the study and highlighted that many experts had believed the average would never exceed 90. 
   
   "This shows that even if there is a limit to longevity, we are nowhere near it," he said. "We should be planning for more life." 
   
   The analysis included data on mortality and longevity patterns from 35 industrialized nations, including both high-income countries and emerging economies. 
   
   US continues to lag 
   
   In Europe, French women and Swiss women are predicted to have the highest life expectancy, with averages of 88.6 and 84 years respectively. 
   
   Among predictions for high-income countries, the lowest life expectancy at birth is likely to be in the US, with an average of 83.3 years for women and 79.5 years for men -- similar to Mexico and Croatia. 
   
   "They still have relatively high rates of young and middle-age mortality," Ezzati told CNN, referring to the countries with lower life expectancies. "People have a relatively high risk of dying in their 40s or 50s." 
   
   There are many reasons for deaths in this age range, Ezzati said, including greater obesity rates and their associated health risks as well as homicides and road accidents. Lack of universal health care in countries like the US is also thought to play a role, the study says. 
   
   The lowest life expectancy projections overall were for women in Macedonia and men in Serbia, according to the study. 
   
   "A lot of this is driven by inequality, (which) brings down the national average," Ezzati said. 
   
   The research team calculated life expectancy using data on the age at which people die across a population. High childhood mortality rates and greater rates of death among young people, for example due to injuries and violence, will bring an average down. 
   
   In contrast, greater equality, more comprehensive health care and healthy diets and lifestyles embedded in a culture can bring this up -- as with South Korea. 
   
   "Places like South Korea and some emerging economies, Switzerland and Canada do very well," Ezzati said. "South Korea has had remarkable success." 
   
   Ezzati believes the secret to South Korea's success has been the country's investment in childhood nutrition, education and technology as well as low blood pressure, low levels of smoking and good access to health care. 
   
   "An equitable way of taking up this knowledge has been the driver," he said. 
   
   Overtaking Japan's lead 
   
   Meanwhile, countries like Japan, long revered for their longevity, are expected to see just small increases in life expectancy. "The Japanese story has started to come to an end," Ezzati said, adding that while the Japanese culture is known for healthy diets and active lifestyles, "that's beginning to change." 
   
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   "They still have low obesity and low blood pressure ... and are still doing well, but some things are catching up," he said, highlighting Western influences such as diet. 
   
   "South Korea has caught up with Japan as its standard of living has increased," said Sarah Harper, professor of gerontology at the University of Oxford. "But in many parts of Asia, young people are eating Western diets. ... The (previously) healthy diet may not be sustained as young people reach older ages." 
   
   The findings are hoped to help countries learn healthy changes by example and, more important, to help policymakers prepare for their populations' changing demographics. 
   
   "What South Korea has done goes completely against some Western countries ... against the prosperity agenda," Ezzati said, adding that we need to think about "social care, planning and pensions in an aging population." 
   
   Harper, said the new projections are, "very much in line with what other projections are showing." She agreed that countries in Asia are leading the way but are also seeing change among their younger population. 
   
   She further agreed that inequality is likely to be an underlying factor for why some high-income countries are seeing lower life expectancy predictions. "The US spends more of its budget on health care than any other country in the world. Some say this is due to the huge amount of inequality," she said. "The Scandinavian countries do well. ... They're counted as more equal and tend to have higher life expectancy outcomes." ||||| South Korean women will be the first in the world to have an average life expectancy above 90, a study suggests. 
   
   Imperial College London and the World Health Organization analysed lifespans in 35 industrialised countries. 
   
   It predicted all would see people living longer in 2030 and the gap between men and women would start to close in most countries. 
   
   The researchers said the findings posed big challenges for pensions and care for elderly people. 
   
   "South Korea has gotten a lot of things right," Prof Majid Ezzati told the BBC News website. 
   
   "They seem to have been a more equal place and things that have benefited people - education, nutrition - have benefited most people. 
   
   "And so far, they are better at dealing with hypertension and have some of the lowest obesity rates in the world." 
   
   Image copyright Getty Images Image caption South Korean women are projected to have the longest life expectancy 
   
   The data also forecasts that Japan, once the picture of longevity, will tumble down the global rankings. 
   
   It currently has the highest life expectancy for women, but will be overtaken by both South Korea and France, the study suggests. Meanwhile, male life expectancy will go from the fourth highest to 11th out of the countries studied. 
   
   Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Professor Majid Ezzati tells Radio 4's Today why other countries' life expectancy is longer than the UK's 
   
   The US also performs poorly and is on course to have the lowest life expectancy of rich countries by 2030. 
   
   The study predicts an average age of 80 for men and 83 for women - roughly the same state Mexico and Croatia will have achieved. 
   
   "They are almost opposite of South Korea," added Prof Ezzati. 
   
   "[Society in the US is] very unequal to an extent the whole national performance is affected - it is the only country without universal health insurance. 
   
   Image copyright AP Image caption High inequality is part of the reason US life expectancy is to be lowest among rich nations 
   
   "And it is the first country that has stopped growing taller, which shows something about early life nutrition." 
   
   The US will be overtaken by Chile, where women born in 2030 will expect to live for 87 years and men for 81. 
   
   Between 2015 and 2030, life expectancy in the UK is expected to go from 79 to 82 for men and from 83 to 85 for women. 
   
   Men catching up 
   
   The study, published in the Lancet, also shows the gap in life expectancy between women and men is closing. 
   
   Prof Ezzati said: "Men traditionally had unhealthier lifestyles, and so shorter life expectancies. 
   
   "They smoked and drank more, and had more road traffic accidents and homicides, however, as lifestyles become more similar between men and women, so does their longevity." 
   
   Much of the increases are due to improvements for the over-65s rather than reductions in deaths during childhood. 
   
   The study made the projections in a similar way to the methods used by meteorologists to forecast the weather. 
   
   It combined 21 separate mathematical models that analysed past trends to make projections into the future. 
   
   This approach indirectly takes account of all the different factors - smoking rates, medical advances, obesity patterns - that are changing life expectancy. 
   
   It assumes countries continue to progress as they are, so exceptional, unpredictable events equivalent to the fall of the Soviet Union, or huge breakthroughs like a vaccine for all cancer, would massively alter the forecasts. 
   
   In summary, Prof Ezzati said: "Places that perform well do so by investing in their health system and making sure it reaches everyone." 
   
   Follow James on Twitter. ||||| Study shows significant increase in lifespan, with South Korea top of league table and other countries not far behind 
   
   Life expectancy will soon exceed 90 years for the first time, scientists have predicted, overturning all the assumptions about human longevity that prevailed at the beginning of the 20th century. 
   
   Women born in South Korea in 2030 are forecast to have a life expectancy of 90, a study has found. But other developed countries are not far behind, raising serious questions about the health and social care that will be needed by large numbers of the population living through their 80s. 
   
   The findings are from an international team of scientists funded by the UK Medical Research Council and the US Environmental Protection Agency, and come with caveats. It is impossible to accurately forecast the natural disasters, disease outbreaks or climate changes that may take a toll of lives around the world. 
   
   
   
   But the study in the Lancet medical journal shows a significant rise in life expectancy in most of the 35 developed countries studied. A notable exception is the US, where a combination of obesity, deaths of mothers and babies at birth, homicides and lack of equal access to healthcare is predicted to cause life expectancy to rise more slowly than in most comparable countries. 
   
   Boys born in 2030 in the US may expect to have similar lifespans to those in the Czech Republic, the study suggests, and girls will have life expectancy similar to those in Croatia and Mexico. Life expectancy for babies born in the US in 2030 is predicted to be 83.3 in 2030 for women and 79.5 for men, a small rise from the 2010 figures of 81.2 and 76.5 respectively. 
   
   The authors point out that the US is the only country in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development without universal healthcare coverage. “Not only does the US have high and rising health inequalities, but also life expectancy has stagnated or even declined in some population subgroups,” write the authors. 
   
   The big winners are South Korea, some western European countries, and some emerging economies. France is second in the league table for women – as it was in 2010 – at 88.6 years, and Japan is third on 88.4 years after decades with the longest life expectancy in the world. Men born in 2030 are predicted to enjoy life expectancy of 84.1 years in South Korea and 84 years in Australia and Switzerland. 
   
   
   
   The UK is 21st in the league table for women, with a predicted life expectancy at birth in 2030 of 85.2 years, and 14th for men, whose life expectancy is predicted to be 82.5 years. 
   
   
   
   The study incorporates 21 different models of life expectancy to try to come to a definitive prediction of the future, but the authors say there is still uncertainty. There is a 97% probability that women’s life expectancy at birth in 2030 in South Korea will be higher than 86.7 years and 57% probability that it will exceed 90 years. 
   
   South Korea’s league-topping performance is due to improvements in its economy and education, say the authors. Deaths among children and adults from infectious diseases have dropped and nutrition has improved, which has also led to South Koreans growing taller. Obesity, which causes chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart problems and cancer, has not become a huge issue and fewer women smoke than in most western countries. 
   
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   Other countries with high projected life expectancy such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand have high-quality healthcare to prevent and treat cancer and heart disease, few infant deaths, and low smoking and road traffic injury rates, says the paper. In France and Switzerland, a lower proportion of women are overweight or obese. 
   
   Our increasing lifespan will require more attention to the health and social needs of elderly people, say the authors. 
   
   “As recently as the turn of the century, many researchers believed that life expectancy would never surpass 90 years,” said the lead author Prof Majid Ezzati, of Imperial College London. “Our predictions of increasing lifespans highlight our public health and healthcare successes. 
   
   “However, it is important that policies to support the growing older population are in place. In particular, we will need to both strengthen our health and social care systems and to establish alternative models of care, such as technology assisted home care.”
target: – Life expectancy is expected to climb dramatically in most developed countries by 2030—just not in the United States. Using 21 mathematical models, scientists at Imperial College London and the WHO predict females born in the US in 2030 will live an average of 83 years compared to 81 in 2010, while males will reach 79.5 years, up from 76.5, per the BBC and the Guardian. That's "similar to the Czech Republic for men, and Croatia and Mexico for women," say researchers, stressing the US will "fall further behind" countries like South Korea due to obesity, homicides, and a lack of universal healthcare, per Vox. South Korea is expected to lead the pack for both sexes in 2030 with life expectancy at 84 for men and 91 for women—a world first. "As recently as the turn of the century, many researchers believed that life expectancy would never surpass 90 years," but this shows "our public health and healthcare successes," says lead author Majid Ezzati. For example, South Korea has seen gains in economy and education and declines in infant mortality, cardiovascular diseases, and stomach cancers. However, the prediction also points to the need to boost healthcare programs to support a population that could live through their 80s. "We should be planning for more life," Ezzati tells CNN. France and Japan are expected to trail South Korea for female life expectancy at 88.6 years and 88.4 years, respectively. Australia and Switzerland would follow for men at roughly 84 years. (This study suggests human life has hit a ceiling.)