text: By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto 
   
   With the first debate less than two weeks away, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race for the presidency nationally. Clinton has just a 2-point edge in a two-way match-up among likely voters. The race is tied when third party candidates are included. Among the broader electorate of registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by five points. 
   
   One disadvantage for Clinton is diminished voter enthusiasm. Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting now than they were in August. 
   
   More than four in 10 voters think each presidential candidate should release more of their medical records. This poll was conducted before either candidate’s recent release of medical information. 
   
   With Election Day just under eight weeks away, the race for President nationwide is tight. In a two-way match-up, Clinton has a slim edge over Trump, 46 - 44 percent among likely voters who support or lean toward a candidate. 
   
   This is the first national poll in which CBS News and the New York Times have measured the presidential race among likely voters. The measure for likely voters takes into account voters’ reported intent to vote, enthusiasm about voting and other factors that historically affect an individual’s decision to vote. 
   
   Among the broader electorate – registered voters nationwide – Clinton leads Trump by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. 
   
   When third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are factored in, the race is tied, with Trump and Clinton each getting the backing of 42 percent of likely voters. While Clinton and Trump retain most of their support when Johnson and Stein are included, slightly more of Clinton’s supporters move to Johnson or Stein, compared to Trump’s supporters. 
   
   Among registered voters, Clinton has a slight edge over Trump in a four-way contest. 
   
   Most Clinton and Trump voters say they’re sticking with their candidate. Ninety-two percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Clinton voters say their choice is set. Few say they will change their minds before the election. 
   
   Enthusiasm and Strength of Support 
   
   Thirty-six percent of registered voters overall now say they are very enthusiastic about voting, the same as a month ago. But one disadvantage for Clinton is that enthusiasm among Republican voters has remained steady, while enthusiasm among Democrats has dropped. Among Democratic voters, the percentage that is at least somewhat enthusiastic has dropped from 77 percent in August to 64 percent today, while the percentage of Democrats who are very enthusiastic has dropped nine points – from 47 percent to 38 percent. 
   
   More specifically, Trump supporters are more excited about voting than Clinton’s supporters are. Forty-five percent of Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 36 percent of Clinton backers who feel that way. 
   
   Just over half of each candidate’s voters say they strongly support their candidate, but for many, support is not so strong - including a quarter who are voting for their candidate because they dislike the other choice. 
   
   Who’s Supporting Whom? 
   
   Trump now garners support from just under nine in ten Republican voters, as does Clinton among Democrats. 
   
   A look at the candidates’ demographic support also illustrates why the race is close. A gender gap remains: Trump has a double-digit lead over Clinton among men, while Clinton is ahead by a similar margin among women. Trump continues to struggle with African American voters but has an advantage over Clinton among whites. 
   
   Whites without a college degree are strong supporters of Trump (58 percent back him), while Clinton leads Trump among white voters with a college degree. 
   
   Clinton is ahead of Trump among voters under 30 but she is not getting the level of support Barack Obama received in 2012. 48 percent of young voters are currently backing her, while Obama won 60 percent of the young vote in 2012. Only 29 percent of young voters are supporting Trump, but 21 percent say they’ll vote for someone else or won’t vote. 
   
   The Candidates’ Medical Records 
   
   After Clinton’s bout of illness at the 9/11 ceremony and the announcement of her pneumonia diagnosis, more than four in 10 voters think each presidential candidate should release more of their medical records. About as many think the candidates have released enough information about their health already. The poll was conducted before either candidate’s recent release of medical records. 
   
   Over half of Republicans think Clinton should release more medical records concerning her health, but 52 percent think their nominee has released enough information already. Among Democrats, most (53 percent) say Clinton has released enough health information already, but want Trump to release more of his records. 
   
   This poll was conducted by telephone September 9-13, 2016 among a random sample of 1,753 adults nationwide, including 1,433 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. 
   
   The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. 
   
   Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. 
   
   The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. 
   
   The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. 
   
   The sample of likely voters is modeled among registered voters (N=1,433), assigning each respondent a probability of voting based on their responses. The margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus three points. 
   
   This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 
   
   
   
   ||||| The IT History Society (ITHS) is a world-wide group of over 500 members working together to assist in and promote the documentation, preservation, cataloging, and researching of Information Technology (IT) history. We offer a place where individuals, academicians, corporate archivists, curators of public institutions, and hobbyists alike can gather and share information and resources. This catalog of resource sites concerning IT history is the only one of its kind and is a valuable resource for IT historians and archivists alike. ||||| The Republican nominee may not be winning yet, but a series of polls show that he has drawn very close nationally and in key swing states. 
   
   Do you smell that in the air? No, it’s not the first breezes of fall. It’s the aroma of Democratic panic. The latest trigger is a poll that CNN released late Wednesday afternoon. The poll shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton 46-41 in Ohio, with Gary Johnson taking 8 percent, and Trump winning 47-44 in Florida, with Gary Johnson at 6 percent. Both figures are based on screening for likely voters, not just registered voters. A national CNN poll last week showed Trump winning by a point 49-48. “This shouldn’t be close, but it’s close,” President Obama said at a fundraiser Tuesday night. CNN’s poll of those two crucial battleground states is the latest in a series of polls that have shown good news for Trump. The gap between the two candidates has shrunk to one of its smallest points so far. Not since Trump’s post-Republican National Convention bump has the GOP nominee seemed to be in such a strong position. Certainly, mid-September has been decisive in presidential elections before. John McCain had built a lead over Barack Obama before the economy collapsed on September 15, 2008; McCain never recovered. 
   
   Of course, Trump also had farther to go to close that gap: With the exception of that bump, Trump has trailed in the race all along, and what’s changing here is momentum. Polling averages still show Clinton leading, and the forecasts from both FiveThirtyEight (64 percent change of Clinton win) and The Upshot (78 percent chance of Clinton win) show her with the edge. But those numbers have shrunk, and if the current trend continued, she could easily lose. As a Citibank analyst noted, in a comment that seems like it ought to be unnecessary but is not, “35% probability events happen frequently in real life.” It’s that sort of idea that has some liberals flipping out. After all, this was supposed to be an easy contest! How can it be that a candidate who has lied repeatedly and blatantly, insulted minority groups, not bothered to learn anything about policy, and proposed banning Muslims from the country be even close to winning? Just a few months ago, even straight reporters were speculating that the race might be over, and that Trump had practically no way to win. Now, it looks like a nailbiter. Or maybe all of this is wishful thinking from Trump fans and a classic example of what Obama adviser David Plouffe described as bedwetting, the tendency among Democrats to freak out and panic at the slightest sign of trouble. But privately, many Republicans who are horrified by Trump but have taken solace in the expectation that he would lose by a wide margin are starting to freak out too. ||||| In the four-way ballot test, which followed the head-to-head matchup in the list of questions read to likely voters, Hillary Clinton received 41 percent to Donald Trump's 39 percent. | Getty National poll: Clinton leads Trump by 5 
   
   Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by five points in a head-to-head matchup in the latest national poll of likely voters from Quinnipiac University out Wednesday, with the advantage narrowing to just two points in a four-way race. 
   
   Matched against only Trump, 48 percent said they would vote for Clinton, with 43 percent choosing the Republican nominee, 3 percent picking someone else and 6 percent undecided. Clinton led by a larger margin in the previous Quinnipiac survey conducted in August, 51 percent to 41 percent. 
   
   Story Continued Below 
   
   Regardless of whom they are supporting, majorities voters likely to cast their ballot for Clinton or Trump said their main reason for supporting their candidate was more in opposition of the other option than liking their choice. More than half—54 percent of Clinton supporters said opposing Trump was their main reason for backing the Democratic nominee. Approximately two-thirds of likely Trump voters—66 percent—said their main reason for supporting him is because they opposed Clinton. 
   
   The latest results come as other state and national polls show similarly tightening margins between both major candidates, who have traded words in recent days over concerns about transparency and health. The Quinnipiac poll began last Thursday, a day after the Commander in Chief Forum, and remained active in the field until Tuesday, after days of public attention on Clinton's health following her early departure from a 9/11 memorial on Sunday and subsequent revelation that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia last Friday. 
   
   Asked whether they thought the election would be close or one of the candidates would win in a landslide, 69 percent chose the former and 22 percent the latter. 
   
   Republicans and Trump supporters were more likely to say the election will be close, while more Democrats and Clinton supporters said their candidate would prevail with ease. 
   
   Regardless of the candidate they are supporting, nearly six in 10 likely voters—58 percent—said Clinton would win in November, while 31 percent said Trump would be elected. 
   
   The usual racial, educational and gender gaps persist in the latest poll, with Clinton holding the support of 54 percent of women in the head-to-head matchup compared to 36 percent for Trump, who received the support of 50 percent of men to Clinton’s 41 percent. Among white voters, Trump leads 51 percent to 41 percent, while among non-whites, Clinton has a 47-point edge of 66 percent to 19 percent. 
   
   Among whites holding college degrees, Clinton leads 50 percent to 44 percent, while Trump leads among whites without degrees, 59 percent to 33 percent. 
   
   In the four-way ballot test, which followed the head-to-head matchup in the list of questions read to likely voters, Clinton received 41 percent to Trump's 39 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson received 13 percent, while the Green Party's Jill Stein took 4 percent, with 3 percent undecided among those choices. 
   
   In order to reach the primetime presidential debates, the first of which is scheduled for Sept. 26, third-party candidates must receive an average of 15 percent support in five national polls; however, the Quinnipiac survey is not one of them. 
   
   A separate question in the survey showed some support for Johnson’s inclusion in the debates, with 57 percent saying he should be included and 37 percent saying he should not. Support for Johnson’s inclusion was highest among independents (66 percent to 30 percent) and higher among Clinton supporters (60 percent to 33 percent) than Trump backers (50 percent to 46 percent). 
   
   The poll was conducted Sept. 8-13, surveying 960 likely voters nationwide via landlines and cellphones. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
target: – The race for the White House does indeed appear to be tightening. A new CBS/New York Times national poll shows Hillary Clinton with just a 2-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters, 46% to 44% in a two-candidate race, with a 3-point margin of error. With Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in the mix, Clinton and Trump are neck-and-neck at 42% each. Among all registered voters, Clinton fares better. She has a 5-point lead over Trump, 46% to 41%, in a two-candidate race, and a 2-point lead, 41% to 39%, with Johnson and Stein included. But her lead is still diminshed, and her recent bout with pneumonia may have played a role. Just 38% of Democrats said they were excited about voting in the poll of 1,753 from Friday to Tuesday, down from 47% in August. That's compared to 64% of Republicans, down from 77%, though nearly all Trump and Clinton supporters said their minds were made up. "Not since Trump's post-Republican National Convention bump has the GOP nominee seemed to be in such a strong position," though he's "still the underdog," writes David A. Graham at the Atlantic. A Quinnipiac University national poll of 960 likely voters shows Clinton with a 5-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head battle, and a 2-point lead in a four-candidate race with a 3-point margin of error, per Politico.