text: Abu Dhabi: The record drop in oil prices from more than $110 per barrel in 2014 to less than $40 per barrel this year has forced the Saudi government to reform its economy and look beyond oil, analysts said on Monday. 
   
   “There is no doubt that low oil prices is the main reason why Saudi Arabia is undertaking reforms to diversify its economy. In the long run, the new measures announced by the government will benefit the economy,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst from Emirates NBD. 
   
   As part of the new reforms announced on Monday, tourism will be encouraged and new industries will be set up. 
   
   “We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia,” Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman said in an interview to Al Arabiya Television. “I think by 2020, if oil stops we can survive,” he added. 
   
   The government is undertaking reforms as oil prices slump due to over production and weak demand. 
   
   In a landmark decision in December, the Saudi government cut subsidies and raised fuel prices by 50 per cent. 
   
   “Being dependent of just one source of income makes an economy incredible vulnerable to price shocks and makes forward planning very difficult,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst from Saxo Bank. 
   
   He said using the oil wealth to diversify is the only way forward for the economy to survive in the long term. 
   
   “A fast growing population and no history of paying tax and jobs making little or no meaning, requires changes in order to compete in the global market place.” 
   
   According to a report issued by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in December it may take many years for oil prices to recover and reach the level of more than $110 per barrel witnessed in June 2014, 
   
   The oil producers group expects the price of its basket of crudes to rise to $70 a barrel in 2020 and $95 a barrel in 2040. 
   
   Analysts predicted an average price of $40 in 2016 and $45 in 2017. Brent, the global benchmark was trading at less than $45 per barrel on Monday. 
   
   “The price of oil will bounce further as we move towards the end of 2016 and into 2017. Billions of dollars of capex cut will eventually change the focus in the market from oversupply to the potential lack of supply,” Hansen added. 
   
   In 2015, Saudi Arabia registered a budget deficit of 16 per cent of GDP and with government reforms announced December 2015, Saudi Arabia is expected to register a budget deficit of 13 per cent of GDP. ||||| RIYADH (Reuters) - The powerful young prince overseeing Saudi Arabia’s economy unveiled ambitious plans on Monday aimed at ending the kingdom’s “addiction” to oil and transforming it into a global investment power. 
   
   (L-R) Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Saudi King Salman, and Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stand together after Saudi Arabia's cabinet agrees to implement a broad reform plan known as Vision 2030 in Riyadh, April 25, 2016. REUTERS/Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters 
   
   Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the world’s top oil exporter expects state oil company Saudi Aramco [SDABO.UL] to be valued at more than $2 trillion ahead of the sale of less than 5 percent of it through an initial public offering (IPO). 
   
   He added that the kingdom would raise the capital of its public investment fund to 7 trillion riyals ($2 trillion) from 600 billion riyals ($160 billion). 
   
   The plans also included changes that would alter the social structure of the ultra-conservative Muslim kingdom by pushing for women to have a bigger economic role and by offering improved status to resident expatriates. 
   
   “We will not allow our country ever to be at the mercy of commodity price volatility or external markets,” Prince Mohammed said at his first news conference with international journalists, who were invited to a Riyadh palace for the event. 
   
   “We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia,” he had earlier told al-Arabiya television news channel. 
   
   His “Vision 2030” envisaged raising non-oil revenue to 600 billion riyals ($160 billion) by 2020 and 1 trillion riyals ($267 billion) by 2030 from 163.5 billion riyals ($43.6 billion) last year. But the plan gave few details on how this would be implemented, something that has bedevilled previous reforms. 
   
   The 31-year-old prince gave assured answers to questions on the plan, and appeared to pitch his comments to appeal across the Saudi social spectrum, and in particular to young people, who face unemployment and an economic downturn despite their country’s oil wealth. 
   
   Even before oil prices started to plunge in 2014, economists had regarded Riyadh’s fiscal policy and economic structure as being unsustainable, but reduced income from energy sales has made reform more urgent. 
   
   The plan appeared to lift sentiment on the Saudi stock market .TASI, where shares jumped by 2.5 percent in the heaviest trading for eight months, but it fell short of convincing skeptics that the kingdom can prosper in an era of cheap oil. 
   
   At the center of the plan is the restructuring of its Public Investment Fund (PIF), which Prince Mohammed said would become a hub for Saudi investment abroad, partly by raising money through selling shares in Aramco. 
   
   Asked where Riyadh would find the funds for a $2 trillion dollar fund after recent borrowing, he said it would come from transferring the ownership of Aramco to the PIF. 
   
   “We are speaking about more than $2 trillion. We expect the valuation to be more than $2 trillion. In addition to that there are other assets that will be added to the fund, and part of it is already added. 
   
   He said it could “turn into a global investment fund with a size of up to $3 trillion dollars”. 
   
   OPENING ARAMCO ACCOUNTS 
   
   The partial privatization of Aramco was also central to the plans, and Prince Mohammed said it would be transformed into an energy company that he expected to be valued at $2 trillion to $3 trillion, and that less than 5 percent of it would be listed on the stock market. 
   
   So big is the state oil company because of its rights to the kingdom’s crude reserves, that selling even 1 percent of its value would create the biggest initial public offering (IPO) on earth, he said. 
   
   He said other Aramco subsidiary companies would also be listed along with other publicly held companies, and added that one major benefit of privatization was that it would increase transparency and help limit corruption. 
   
   “People used to be unhappy that files and data of Aramco are undeclared, unclear and not transparent. Today they will be transparent. If Aramco gets IPO-ed that means it has to announce its statements of accounts,” he said. 
   
   Since the prince was appointed to oversee Saudi long-term planning through the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, Riyadh’s focus on reform has grown far more urgent and far more acute. 
   
   Prince Mohammed has enjoyed a dizzyingly rapid rise since his father became king 15 months ago, from being little known outside the ruling Al Saud family to become the driving force of Saudi plans to prepare for a future after oil. 
   
   In his rare press conference, he presented himself as a modernizing leader who seeks to shake Saudi Arabia out of its economic slumber and its reputation for opacity and rigid bureaucracy, showing an interest in topics including education, the public role of women, and football. 
   
   Saudi Arabia would prepare a new education curriculum, Prince Mohammed said. Despite previous reform attempts, the kingdom’s schools have long been seen as focused on religious teachings rather than preparing students for a role in a modern economy. 
   
   Under the plans, Saudi Arabia would produce or assemble half of its defense equipment internally in order to create job opportunities, he said, and Riyadh would make foreign investment easier. 
   
   The government ran a deficit of 367 billion riyals ($98 billion) or 15 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015, officials said, and this year’s budget plan aimed to cut that to 326 billion riyals ($87 billion). 
   
   His economic team has already announced efforts to curb wasteful government spending, to diversify revenue streams by introducing sales tax and privatizing state assets, and to make reforms in the education sector. 
   
   Such was the speculation among Saudis over the details of the plan that hashtags associated with it were the top two trending on Twitter on Monday in the country with the highest rate of social media use in the Middle East. 
   
   But ambitious targets, such as raising the private sector share in the economy to 60 percent from 40 percent, reducing unemployment to 7.6 percent from 11 percent and growing non-oil income to 1 trillion riyals ($267 billion) from 163 billion riyals ($44 billion) were not explained further. 
   
   PLANS 
   
   Some Saudis said they had hoped for more detail on crucial issues such as education reform. There were no further details of plans to increase revenue from tax or of any changes to the political structure of the absolute monarchy. 
   
   “For me as a Saudi, I am concerned by the education transformation plan,” said a Saudi entrepreneur. “If it is not at the top of the list, why not?” 
   
   However, the plan also envisaged increasing women’s participation in the workforce, something that has already grown quickly over the past five years, to 30 percent from 22 percent. 
   
   But he also said he did not believe Saudi society was ready to end its ban on women driving. 
   
   A green card system would also be launched within five years to enable expatriate Arabs and Muslims to live and work long-term in the country, Prince Mohammed said, in a major shift for the insular kingdom. 
   
   But the focus was on economic restructuring to help reduce oil dependence. 
   
   “I think by 2020, if oil stops we can survive,” Prince Mohammed said. “We need it, we need it, but I think in 2020 we can live without oil.” 
   
   Slideshow (6 Images) 
   
   Appealing to Saudi youth, he ended his news conference by promising them a new Saudi Arabia. 
   
   “The vision is not a dream, it’s a reality that will come true,” he said. 
   
   ($1 = 3.7489 riyals) ||||| Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Most of Saudi Arabia's profits come from oil 
   
   The Saudi cabinet has approved sweeping economic reforms aimed at moving the country away from its dependence on oil profits. 
   
   Just over 70% of revenues came from oil last year but it has been hit by falling prices. 
   
   One part of the plan will see shares sold in state-owned oil giant Aramco to create a sovereign wealth fund. 
   
   Announcing the reforms, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described his country as being addicted to oil. 
   
   Saudis react on social media 
   
   The Vision 2030 plan, he told the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya news channel, would ensure "we can live without oil by 2020". 
   
   Among the reforms he announced in his interview were: 
   
   Shares worth less than 5% of Aramco, a company he valued at up to $2.5tn (£1.7tn), will be sold 
   
   Some of the proceeds will go towards a sovereign wealth fund worth $2tn 
   
   A new visa system will allow expatriate Muslims and Arabs to work long term in Saudi Arabia 
   
   Steps will be taken to diversify the economy, including investment in mineral mining and expanding military production 
   
   Participation of women in the workforce to increase 
   
   Even just selling 1% of Aramco would create the biggest initial public offering in history, the prince said, outstripping blockbuster sales like Facebook and Alibaba. 
   
   The IMF called the Saudi plan an "ambitious, far-reaching effort" but warned implementation would be a challenge. 
   
   The cost of oil: analysis by Andrew Walker, BBC economics correspondent 
   
   Image copyright AP Image caption Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest crude exporter 
   
   Oil has made Saudi Arabia a major economic force. But it comes at a cost. The short-term problem is the volatile price of crude oil, which is now less than half what it was in mid-2014. Saudi Arabia has deep pockets. 
   
   It will not go running to the International Monetary Fund for financial help, something another oil exporter, Angola, has done. But the Saudi reserves are eroding and with almost three quarters of government revenue coming from oil, the price fall is making itself felt. 
   
   For the long term, international efforts to combat climate change create huge uncertainty about demand for oil in the future. Oil will not lose its dominance of the market for transport fuel in the next few years, but further ahead the outlook is unknown. 
   
   So Saudi Arabia needs to become less dependent on oil for government revenue and for the jobs and incomes of Saudi nationals. 
   
   Oil prices are still less than half the peak of $115 a barrel seen in June 2014. But the prince said the reforms would go ahead regardless of prices. 
   
   "The vision has nothing to do with crude prices," he said. 
   
   "If the oil price goes back up it would greatly support the vision but it does not need high prices. We can deal with the lowest prices possible." 
   
   Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Prince Mohammed says greater women's rights may not happen for a while 
   
   In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Prince Mohammed said taxes on luxury goods and sugary drinks could also be introduced. However, he said it was crucial that the programme would not leave the country's poor worse off. 
   
   The prince is second-in-line to the Saudi throne and also serves as defence minister. 
   
   Vast oil revenues have allowed the Saudi government to offer generous subsidies on utilities to its population. But some of these were cut last year in response to falling oil prices. 
   
   Over the weekend King Salman sacked the country's water minister amid outrage at rising utility prices. ||||| Saudi Arabia's cabinet has agreed on a broad-based economic reform plan, known as Vision 2030, revealing how the oil-reliant state plans to diversify its economy over the next 14 years. 
   
   Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince, said on Monday that the country was building up its public investment fund to become a major player in global markets. 
   
   He said Saudi Arabia was restructuring its housing ministry to increase the supply of affordable housing, and creating a "green card" system within five years to give expatriates long-term residence. 
   
   WATCH: Oil economics - Behind the Saudi Aramco IPO 
   
   Salman al-Ansari, founder and president of the Washington DC-based Saudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee (SAPRAC), told Al Jazeera the green card system gives more rights to expatriates to invest in the country. 
   
   "Almost 10 million foreigners send their money back to their country. They can't invest in this country, so with this green card idea we are giving more rights to expats for investment or to buy houses," he said. 
   
   "That will create a big move for the Saudi economy. It is a visionary kind of move to not only help the Saudi economy and Saudi citizens but also to help the foreigners in the country." 
   
   Saudi Arabia will also sell shares in state oil giant Aramco and set up the world's largest wealth fund in line with the plan, Mohamed bin Salman said separately in an interview with the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya news channel. 
   
   "We plan to sell less than 5 percent of Aramco. Aramco's size is very big. It is estimated at between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion," he said. 
   
   "We plan to set up a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund ... part of its assets will come from the sale of a small part of Aramco." 
   
   Saudi Arabia's economy has suffered over the past 12 months in line with the falling price of oil, with a $98bn budget deficit last year and an estimated deficit of $87bn this year. Its reserves decreased from $746bn in 2014 to $616bn today. 
   
   OPINION: Saudi Arabia - reform comes with social responsibility 
   
   "They have announced these kind of changes before. It is going to be very interesting to monitor the implementation of the new rules," Ahmed al-Ibrahim, an expert in Saudi affairs and security, told Al Jazeera. 
   
   "To implement some of these, you need the collaboration of society. For example, if you want to increase the empowerment of women, you need to liberalise your society," he said. 
   
   "In so many more ways, Saudi society needs to contribute to the government for the Vision 2030 to succeed." 
   
   The country has proven oil reserves of 267 billion barrels and potential reserves of up to 900 billion.
target: – Saudi Arabia's 30-year-old deputy crown prince is looking toward the future with his new "Vision 2030" plan—a plan that includes pulling the kingdom out of its overreliance on oil and leaning more on non-oil investment to transform it into a global power, Reuters reports. "We will not allow our country ever to be at the mercy of commodity price volatility or external markets," Prince Mohammed bin Salman told reporters gathered at a Riyadh palace Monday. Per Gulf News, he had earlier appeared in a televised al-Arabiya interview, noting, "We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia. … I think by 2020, if oil stops we can survive." Also part of his new blueprint: including women more in the economy and appealing to young people who face the prospect of not finding jobs. The BBC notes that more than 70% of the kingdom's revenue came from oil in 2015, but oil prices continue to plummet and Saudi Arabia's economy is suffering, per Al Jazeera. In broad terms, the prince would like to bring up its Public Investment Fund (PIF) capital to $2 trillion from $160 billion. Prince Mohammed says 5% of shares in the Aramco oil company would be sold to fund this $2 trillion nest (which he thinks could even rise to $3 trillion). Also part of the prince's game plan: setting up a "green card" system in five years' time to expedite Muslim and Arab expatriates' long-term residency, as well as boosting affordable housing and getting more women into the workforce. The founder of the DC-based Saudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee tells Al Jazeera this a "visionary move," but another Saudi expert says he's seen similar changes proposed before. "To implement some of these, you need the collaboration of society," he notes. "For example, if you want to increase the empowerment of women, you need to liberalize your society." (What the prince didn't bring up: The kingdom's possible ties to 9/11.)