text: Thought you were done with election season? Not so fast. On Tuesday in Mississippi, the final U.S. senator of the 116th Congress will be chosen, determining whether Republicans have 52 or 53 seats come January. It’s the second round of voting in the special election that was scheduled after Republican Sen. Thad Cochran resigned in April. We’re not forecasting this runoff, but nonpartisan handicappers rate the Republican as the favorite. Catch up on everything you need to know about the election below, then join us back here on Tuesday night for our live blog. 
   
   1. The players 
   
   Although the special election is nominally nonpartisan, the battle lines are clear. The Republican candidate is incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the former state agriculture and commerce commissioner who was appointed to Cochran’s seat in March. The Democratic candidate is Mike Espy, former President Bill Clinton’s secretary of agriculture and a former six-year congressman from Mississippi. 
   
   National Republicans have mobilized on behalf of Hyde-Smith in recent weeks, though it’s not clear if they are genuinely concerned or simply taking no chances. President Trump is hosting not one, but two rallies for her on Monday, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund are reportedly spending more than $1 million each on ads. Democrats have responded in kind, if not proportionally: Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris have stumped for Espy, and the liberal Senate Majority PAC has made a $500,000 TV buy. 
   
   But both candidates have baggage. Republicans have focused their ads on Espy’s 1997 indictment for accepting improper gifts when he worked in the Clinton administration (although he was acquitted on all counts in 1998) and his more recent lobbying work for a dictator accused of crimes against humanity. And Hyde-Smith has come under fire for a series of controversies, mostly about her relationship with Mississippi’s Confederate and Jim Crow past. Most notably, she praised a close supporter by saying, “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the front row.” Many saw racial undertones to the quip given that Espy is black and that Mississippi has a long history of lynchings. As a result, corporations like Walmart and Major League Baseball have asked for refunds of their donations to Hyde-Smith’s campaign, but it is far from certain how much the controversies will matter to Hyde-Smith’s (mostly white) Mississippi base. 
   
   2. The partisanship 
   
   The first round of voting on Nov. 6 was a jungle primary in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the ballot. Hyde-Smith finished first with 41.3 percent, followed by Espy at 40.9 percent. A second Republican candidate, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, received 16.4 percent, and a second Democrat, former intelligence officer Tobey Bartee, received 1.5 percent. The race is now headed to a runoff between the top two finishers because no candidate got over 50 percent of the vote. 
   
   The near-tie in Round 1 might make the runoff look like anyone’s ballgame, but it’s not. It’s pretty easy for a Democrat to crest 40 percent of the vote in Mississippi — it’s happened in each of the last three presidential elections. That’s because Mississippi has a higher percentage of black residents than any other state — more than 36 percent of the citizen voting age population — and they vote strongly Democratic. But it’s much harder for a Democrat to get those extra 10 points to reach a majority, because the state’s white voters are almost as strongly Republican, and there are relatively few swing voters. Thus, Mississippi is one of the least elastic states in the country — in other words, a perennial 60-40 red state, just like it was in the first round of the special Senate election (in aggregate, Republican candidates got 57.7 percent and Democratic candidates got 42.3 percent). 
   
   So Espy is probably pinning his hopes on the possibility that the Nov. 27 electorate looks different from the Nov. 6 electorate. Indeed, it seems as if he is specifically trying to translate Hyde-Smith’s “public hanging” comment into outsized African-American turnout on Tuesday. That would be a shift from the first round, when voter turnout in the state didn’t disproportionately lean Democratic — the 15.6-point aggregate Republican lead from Nov. 6 practically matched Mississippi’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+15.4. But an irregularly timed special election like Tuesday’s is susceptible to weirder turnout scenarios whereby one party could vastly outnumber the other because of an enthusiasm gap. For example, maybe Republicans who voted for McDaniel on Nov. 6 won’t turn out for Hyde-Smith in the same numbers. If that happens, it would fit in with a trend of Democratic overperformance in other oddly timed special elections in 2017-2018, in which Democrats outperformed their constituencies’ base partisanship by an average of 16 percentage points. That type of overperformance would give Espy a chance. 
   
   However, there are plenty of reasons to think that won’t happen too. Maybe Democratic enthusiasm has been defused now that the party has succeeded at flipping the House. Or maybe Mississippi’s inelasticity will just prevent Democratic overperformance from reaching those lofty heights. 
   
   3. The polling 
   
   Indeed, November’s only public poll of the runoff suggests that Espy will outperform the average Democrat, but not by enough to win. A survey conducted between Nov. 19 and 24 found Hyde-Smith leading Espy 54 percent to 44 percent; the poll was sponsored by a Republican-leaning blog but jointly conducted by one Democratic and one Republican pollster. The most recent independent poll was conducted by Marist College in mid-October, back when the runoff was purely hypothetical; it found Hyde-Smith leading Espy 50 percent to 36 percent. So it’s possible that the race has narrowed in the past month, but probably not by enough to matter. The New York Times did report on a private Republican poll that purportedly showed Espy coming within 5 points of Hyde-Smith in mid-November, but we are always leery of trusting internal polls. 
   
   In the end, there’s not a lot of evidence that Hyde-Smith’s gaffes have thrown this race wide open. (Comparisons to Roy Moore in next-door Alabama seem overblown; it took a scandal of epic proportions to throw that special election to Democrats.) On the other hand, there is a lot of evidence that Mississippi is an intractably red state. We’ll find out for sure on Tuesday night; polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. ||||| Trump spent the majority of his time on stage in Tupelo and Biloxi on Monday the way he usually does, boasting of his administration's accomplishments and exaggerating what he claims are threats facing the country, from undocumented immigrants, foreign trading partners and congressional Democrats. 
   
   Yet now that the midterm elections are over, and now that Democrats have taken control of the House, Trump's doomsday warnings about what would happen if Democrats were put in charge seemed to lack the urgency they had in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 6 elections. 
   
   Trump also bragged about the economy under his watch. He started off by blaming previous administrations for trade policies that he said "shipped away your jobs" and forced America into "economic surrender." Then he pivoted to optimism, saying that now, "so many companies are coming in to Mississippi, and every place else, by the way." 
   
   But even as Trump cited examples of the strong economy, a cloud hung over the otherwise positive picture. 
   
   Earlier in the day, General Motors announced that the company planned to cut its workforce by 15 percent and shutter five plants in North America. The cuts could end up costing more than 14,000 workers their jobs. 
   
   Trump did not mention GM during the rallies, but he told The Wall Street Journal he had warned CEO Mary Barra on Sunday that the company "better damn well open a new plant" in Ohio, one of the states slated to lose hundreds of jobs under the company's plans. Ohio was a key state for Trump in 2016. After voting for Democrat Barack Obama in two consecutive presidential elections, the state went for Trump by 8 percentage points over Hillary Clinton. 
   
   The most politically effective message Trump delivered in Mississippi was his pitch on immigration, a topic that still motivates his supporters more than practically any other. Trump hit many familiar notes, painting undocumented immigrants as violent criminals who come to America to take people's jobs. 
   
   "We don't want those people in Mississippi," Trump said to cheers and chants of "Build the wall!" 
   
   Hyde-Smith also came onstage at both rallies, where she spent a few minutes pledging to protect Mississippi's "conservative values." 
   
   Trump also made it clear how little daylight he sees between himself and Hyde-Smith. 
   
   "She votes to make America great again and she votes for America first," Trump said in Tupelo. "Cindy is so important, so respected, we've got to send her back." ||||| Democrats acknowledge GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is likely to win, but argue her flubs have given Mike Espy a narrow opening if everything breaks his way. | AP Photo/Evan Vucci Elections 'We don't want an Alabama': Hyde-Smith has Republicans holding their breath Democrat Mike Espy claims momentum in the final days of the Mississippi special Senate election, but Donald Trump heads to the state Monday to blunt it. 
   
   Republicans think Cindy Hyde-Smith will ultimately pull out a win in Mississippi's special Senate election on Tuesday. But they say the race has tightened — and after what happened in Alabama last year, they're on edge. 
   
   A swirl of controversy surrounding the Republican senator — stirred up by her comment about attending a "public hanging" — has given Democrat Mike Espy momentum in the homestretch, officials from both parties say. Hyde-Smith has never trailed in polling, and Democrats acknowledge she's likely to win, but they argue that her flubs have given Espy a very narrow opening if everything breaks his way. 
   
   Story Continued Below 
   
   Henry Barbour, the Republican National Committee committeeman and a longtime Mississippi operative, said base voters in both parties are energized, but gave a slight edge to Espy’s supporters. He said he expects Hyde-Smith to win, though he added that Republicans should be concerned about the potential for a weak turnout. 
   
   “I think Espy supporters are probably a little more energized than Hyde-Smith,” Barbour said. “But I do think conservative voters realize this race is going to decide if we have a conservative or liberal representing us in Washington and that is very motivating to conservative voters. 
   
   “We don't want to have an Alabama,” he added, referring to Republican Roy Moore's 2017 loss to Democrat Doug Jones in a special Senate election in the deep-red state. 
   
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   Republicans are sending the full force of the party to Mississippi to prevent that scenario — starting with Donald Trump. The president is holding two rallies for Hyde-Smith Monday, events that officials hope will spike interest and turnout among conservatives during an oddly timed holiday season election. 
   
   “I will be in Gulfport and Tupelo, Mississippi, on Monday night doing two Rallies for Senator Hyde-Smith, who has a very important Election on Tuesday. She is an outstanding person who is strong on the Border, Crime, Military, our great Vets, Healthcare & the 2nd A. Needed in D.C.,” Trump wrote Sunday in one of a pair of tweets for the senator. 
   
   The RNC has more than 100 paid staff members on the ground as of this weekend, and has made more than 500,000 voter contacts since Nov. 6, a spokesman said. The RNC transferred $1 million to the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier this month to help fund TV ads in Mississippi. 
   
   National Republican and White House officials, who’ve been reviewing polling over the past week, remain confident Hyde-Smith will prevail. They say surveys have consistently shown her with a lead ranging from the mid-single digits to the low double digits. A public poll conducted this past week by RRH Elections had Hyde-Smith up by 10 points. 
   
   Still, White House officials have long expressed unease about Hyde Smith and worry that she isn‘t ready for prime time. Earlier this year, two Trump aides implored Gov. Phil Bryant to appoint someone else to the seat following the retirement of longtime Republican Sen. Thad Cochran. But they’re convinced that Hyde-Smith will pull out a win, even if it’s narrower than it should be. 
   
   One Republican working on the runoff who requested anonymity to discuss private polling said the race has tightened recently, but expressed confidence Hyde-Smith would be elected. “A win’s a win,” the Republican said. 
   
   Dan Eberhart, a Republican megadonor who has contributed heavily to GOP Senate campaigns this year, said Trump’s rallies should eliminate any lingering concerns about the race. 
   
   “Trump will carry her over the finish line,” Eberhart said. 
   
   Democrats acknowledge Hyde-Smith will receive a significant boost from the president's rallies on Monday. But they say the appearances will provide a spark to their voters, too. 
   
   “When he shows up, of course he's going to fire up the Republican base,” said Bobby Moak, the state Democratic Party chairman. “But he also does the same thing with the Democratic base.” 
   
   Joe Trippi, a consultant working with Espy’s campaign, said the Democrat is probably losing by low single digits in the closing days of the race. Hyde-Smith outpaced Espy by about 8,400 votes, or just a single percentage point, on Nov. 6, while Republican Chris McDaniel took 17 percent. They are in a runoff because no candidate eclipsed 50 percent. 
   
   Democrats expect high turnout from their base, boosted in part by backlash to Hyde-Smith’s comments about being first in line to a public hanging if one of her supporters invited her, and a second remark about limiting liberals' ability to vote. A Jackson, Miss., newspaper also reported Friday that she attended a segregation academy for high school. 
   
   Espy called the senator's comments during the campaign a “black eye” for the state, and a recent TV ad by his campaign said she's reinforced stereotypes the state has worked to overcome. Multiple national companies, including Walmart and Major League Baseball, have requested their donations to Hyde-Smith be refunded because of the comments. 
   
   Trippi advised Jones during his improbable win in Alabama last year, and emphasized that Jones won by only 23,000 votes despite facing a historically bad opponent in Moore who motivated Democratic voters and depressed GOP turnout. 
   
   “We do think we have a real shot,” Trippi said, comparing Tuesday’s election with the Alabama race Jones won. “But if we win, it's going to be the same thing" — by a very small margin. 
   
   Republicans, meanwhile, have gone on the attack against Espy, airing TV ads highlighting the $750,000 lobbying contract he received from an Ivory Coast dictator earlier this decade. They’re also airing ads linking him to Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, hoping to prevent any crossover Republican support. 
   
   Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report. ||||| (CNN) Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith was expected to coast to victory in a Mississippi runoff that would conclude the last Senate race of 2018's midterm elections. 
   
   Instead, Hyde-Smith has spent the days leading up to Tuesday's election mired in controversy that evoked the state's dark history of racism and slavery. 
   
   It began when video emerged online of her telling supporters earlier this month that she'd be "on the front row" if one of her supporters there "invited me to a public hanging." She later called the comments an "exaggerated expression of regard," but her use of the phrase "public hanging" brought memories of Mississippi's history of lynchings to the forefront and put the contest under the national microscope. 
   
   On Tuesday, Mississippi voters will decide between Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy, who, if elected, would be the state's first black senator since Reconstruction. President Donald Trump, anxious to finish out the 2018 campaign season with a Republican victory, urged voters to turn out for Hyde-Smith in a tweet Tuesday. 
   
   The result will finalize the balance of power in the US Senate. As it stands, Republicans will hold 52 seats next year, and Democrats will have 47. A win for the GOP in Mississippi would further pad the party's majority in the Senate, even as Democrats have taken a solid majority in the House. 
   
   The state is polarized along racial lines, with most white voters backing Republicans and nearly all black voters supporting Democrats. 
   
   Democrats hope Hyde-Smith's comments will lead to a surge in black turnout and propel them to victory. However, even if black voters, who make up nearly 40% of the state's electorate, come out in full force, Espy would still have to outperform his party's history with whites to have a chance of winning. 
   
   And Democrats have to overcome partisan trends in the deeply red state. Earlier this month, when multiple candidates in both parties were on the ballot, Hyde-Smith and conservative Chris McDaniel combined for 58% of the vote, while Espy and Democrat Tobey Bartee got 42%. 
   
   On the eve of the election, Trump held two rallies for Hyde-Smith in an attempt to turn out the Republican base. 
   
   He told the crowd in Tupelo to "get out" and vote in Tuesday's runoff. 
   
   "I think it'll be a very big day for Cindy, but don't take any chances," he said. "That's happened many times before. That never works out well. Just assume you have to vote." 
   
   Even though Republicans will control the Senate regardless of the outcome, the President suggested that a Democratic win in Mississippi would "revoke" the party's victories. 
   
   "We cannot allow Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to revoke that victory by winning the state of Mississippi," he said. 
   
   At a roundtable in Gulfport, Trump called Hyde-Smith's comments about a public hanging "sad and a little flip." 
   
   "When I spoke to her -- she called me -- she said, 'I said something that I meant exactly very different,' and I heard an apology loud and clear," Trump said. 
   
   "I know where her heart is, and her heart is good. That's not what she was meaning when she said that," he said. 
   
   Hyde-Smith at center of controversy 
   
   Though public polling has been limited, the race is seen as potentially competitive because of Hyde-Smith's "public hanging" remarks. 
   
   Those comments prompted deeper dives into her history. 
   
   The same progressive blogger who published the video of her using the phrase "public hanging" later published one in which Hyde-Smith told a small group at Mississippi State University that suppressing the votes of students at other colleges was "a great thing." Her campaign said it was a joke, but that explanation backfired when the black student from the event seen laughing in a picture her campaign posted on Twitter responded that Hyde-Smith's campaign was using him as a prop. 
   
   On Friday, the Jackson Free Press reported that Hyde-Smith had attended a private high school that was founded in 1970 so that white parents could avoid attempts to integrate public schools. Hyde-Smith's daughter later attended a similar private school established around the same time, according to the Free Press. The senator's campaign responded to the report by attacking the "liberal media." 
   
   Over the weekend, CNN reported that Hyde-Smith once promoted a measure that praised a Confederate soldier's effort to "defend his homeland" and had pushed a revisionist view of the Civil War. 
   
   In photos posted to her Facebook account in 2014, Hyde-Smith was pictured posing with Confederate artifacts during a visit to Beauvoir, the home and library of Confederate President Jefferson Davis. The caption on the post read, "Mississippi history at its best!" 
   
   Espy's campaign hammered Hyde-Smith with television ads that cast her as an embarrassment to a state that has attempted to overcome its history of slavery and racism. 
   
   "We've worked hard to overcome the stereotypes that hurt our economy and cost us jobs. Her words should not reflect Mississippi's values, either," a narrator said in one ad. The ad also called Hyde-Smith "so embarrassing, she'd be a disaster for Mississippi." 
   
   Several companies that had donated to Hyde-Smith's campaign, including Walmart, publicly withdrew their support for the senator over the "public hanging" comment. 
   
   In her debate with Espy, Hyde-Smith said she would "certainly apologize" to anyone who was offended by her remark. But she quickly pivoted into attack mode. 
   
   "I also recognize that this comment was twisted and it was turned into a weapon to be used against me," she said. 
   
   GOP fights to avoid embarrassment 
   
   The controversies surrounding Hyde-Smith set off a major push by national Republicans to avoid the same embarrassment they'd suffered last year in Alabama and save Hyde-Smith. 
   
   While Hyde-Smith largely stayed off the campaign trail, the party's infrastructure rallied to her defense. GOP groups spent $4 million on the Mississippi runoff -- much more than Democrats' $1.2 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Republican groups spent more than twice as much as Democrats on television advertisements, per the ad tracking firm Kantar/CMAG. 
   
   Trump's visits to Mississippi on Monday night were also seen as bid to rally the Republican base to vote in an election taking place two days after the Thanksgiving weekend. 
   
   For Democrats, the best-case scenario is similar to how Democratic Sen. Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in Alabama a year ago: a narrow victory fueled by massive turnout from black voters. 
   
   But Mississippi is, in some ways, more challenging than Alabama. Moore faced allegations that, as an adult, he had sought sexual relationships with teenage girls. 
   
   And the state is more rural than its eastern neighbor. Like Alabama, Mississippi hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump won Mississippi by 18 percentage points in 2016. ||||| (Reuters) - Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith won a U.S. Senate special election runoff in conservative Mississippi on Tuesday, defeating a black challenger after a campaign that recalled the history of racist violence in the deep South state. 
   
   Republican U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith speaks during an election night party in Jackson, Mississippi, U.S., November 27, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman 
   
   The white former state lawmaker, who was appointed to the Senate in April, overcame a controversy over her comment on public hangings to defeat Democrat Mike Espy in the last contest of the 2018 election cycle. 
   
   Hyde-Smith, 59, is the first woman elected to Congress from Mississippi. If Espy had won, he would have been the first black senator from Mississippi since shortly after the Civil War. 
   
   Having been heavily favored to win the reliably Republican state, Hyde-Smith became engulfed in a political storm over a video showing her praising a supporter at a Nov. 2 event by saying, “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the front row.” 
   
   The video sparked a furor in a state with a history of racism and violence against blacks, including lynchings, and fueled Democratic hopes of an upset in a state where 38 percent of the population is black. 
   
   But Hyde-Smith triumphed by depicting Espy as too liberal for Mississippi, which last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1982, and by touting her support for President Donald Trump, who won the state by 18 percentage points in 2016. 
   
   Trump attended two get-out-the-vote rallies in the state on Monday, and tweeted his congratulations to Hyde-Smith after the race was called, saying he was “very proud” of her. 
   
   “Mr. President, thank you so much for all of your help,” Hyde-Smith said in a victory speech to supporters, calling her win a triumph of “conservative values.” 
   
   “Mississippians know me and they know my heart,” she said. 
   
   Her victory means Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the new U.S. Senate that convenes in January. With almost all precincts tallied, Hyde-Smith led by nearly 8 percentage points. 
   
   Espy, 64, campaigned as a moderate who would work with Trump and Republicans to benefit the state. He tried to recreate the coalition that propelled Democrat Doug Jones to a Senate win in neighboring Alabama last year by energizing black voters, particularly women, and winning support from white swing voters. 
   
   Espy said he called Hyde-Smith to concede the race and wish her well. 
   
   “She has my prayers as she goes to Washington to unite a very divided Mississippi,” he told supporters. 
   
   The runoff to serve the last two years of former Republican Senator Thad Cochran’s term was necessary because neither Espy nor Hyde-Smith gained more than 50 percent of the vote in a Nov. 6 special election with four candidates. Cochran, 80, resigned earlier this year, citing health concerns. 
   
   Several businesses, including giant retailer Walmart, had demanded Hyde-Smith return their donations after her public hanging remark. 
   
   Slideshow (17 Images) 
   
   She sparked further controversy when she was shown on another video joking about suppressing liberal student votes, and photographs surfaced of her posing with Confederate artifacts in 2014. 
   
   She initially refused to apologize for the hanging remark, but said in a debate last week that she was sorry “for anyone that was offended.” She accused Espy of twisting her words for political gain. 
   
   Espy denied the charge and said “we all know what came out of your mouth.” He has said the comment perpetuated negative stereotypes about Mississippi and hurt investment.
target: – Will it be 53-47 or 52-48? The last election of 2018 will determine the Republican advantage in the Senate next year. GOP incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is trying to fend off Democratic challenger Mike Espy in Mississippi in Tuesday's special election. As Politico reports, Hyde-Pierce has never trailed in the polls and continues to be the favorite to win, but a string of controversies—starting with her joke about a public hanging—has given Espy a bigger-than-expected shot at becoming the state's first black senator since Reconstruction. "A wounded front-runner" is how a political science professor in Jackson describes Hyde-Smith to Reuters. President Trump easily won the state in 2016, and he held two rallies there Monday for his fellow Republican. "Her heart is good," Trump said of Hyde-Smith, per CNN. Trump called her controversial joke "sad and a little flip," but he defended her explanation that it was meant as a good-natured way of praising a supporter. "When I spoke to her—she called me—she said, 'I said something that I meant exactly very different,' and I heard an apology loud and clear," Trump said. As for Espy: "How does he fit in with Mississippi?" the president asked, as noted by CNBC. "I mean, how does he fit in?" The website FiveThirtyEight reports that a survey last week had Hyde-Smith up 54% to 44%. (Major League Baseball was among those to ask for its donation back from Hyde-Smith.)