text: Hewlett-Packard's Mark Hurd didn't sit down for an interview with me, but he's begun doing phoners post-earnings and I'm still holding out hope that 2010 will be the year for a two-camera, in-depth production. Come on, Mr. Hurd. Now's a good time! 
   
   I predicted that Google would come up with new revenue streams, and with YouTube turning a profit and Android looking good, that prediction came true too, and its stock price reflects a new found euphoria. 
   
   Microsoft's redesign of the Zune came true, but it didn't include the phone I expected. Steve Ballmer tells me no way, but I still see the company entering the smart phone arena with a handset of its own. 
   
   I predicted that Intel , HP, Cisco , IBM and Oracle were all oversold and that such lows presented good opportunities for investors. All of them would have been good bets last December. 
   
   I asked whether Palm would survive 2009. Despite the Pre and the Pixi, I think the jury's still out. Dell is entering the smart phone market with hardware of its own. Maybe that means Nokia is the best (last? Only?) hope for Palm in 2010. 
   
   I predicted that Advanced Micro Devices would be acquired in 2009. Didn't happen. With that $1 billion from Intel as part of that new settlement, 2010 could be a much better year for AMD. But "much better" is relative when you're scraping for Intel scraps merely to survive. 
   
   I said Apple posed the biggest opportunity for tech investors in 2009 and I was right. I'd say the same holds true for 2010. Look for the tablet Mac, but not anywhere close to the $2,000 price tag being thrown around. Apple will re-invent mobile computing once again with this device, but beyond hardware and software, it'll do so with price as well. 
   
   If 2009 was a big year for 3D movie-making, 3D TV will blossom big in 2010. New TVs from Sony , Samsung, LG and others will grab lots of attention, and new 3D TV production from upstarts like 3Ality will show viewers enormous possibilities. 
   
   Some other predictions. 
   
   
   
   This is cool stuff. Digital books and eReaders from Amazon , Sony, Barnes & Noble and 17 other manufacturers will enjoy their true break-out year. 
   
   Microsoft will enjoy a big-time renaissance. Cisco continues to be one of this region's most exciting growth stories. Netbooks start to fade as a fad as consumers realize that their iPhones, Research In Motion's Blackberrys and Nokia smart phones get the job done at a fraction of the size (and cost.) 
   
   And Twitter, as we know it, will fade away. Either acquired or shut down. $155 million in venture capital so far, and still no meaningful revenue stream to speak of. And certainly no profits. At some point, someone will step up and yell "Tulips!" 
   
   Meantime, I'm sure of a few key predictions in 2010: Innovation and the entrepreneurial spirit will continue to thrive here in Silicon Valley. It's what makes my job so fun and America so great. ||||| My personal Top 10 technology predictions for 2010 
   
   One of my responsibilities as the Director of IT Innovations at PwC is to spend a good deal of time researching and developing insights on the impact of emerging technologies. This year, for the first time, I thought it might be fun and, frankly, quite useful to share with you my thoughts on what I believe may be the big IT trends in 2010. While I was somewhat tempted to be bold and creative in my forecast, I decided to ground the Top 10 in areas that have some real momentum. If you agree with the predictions, what might that mean for your work and your industry? In what area do you think I got it completely wrong? I’d love to know what you think. 
   
   1. Software as a Service 
   
   2010 will be a big year for providers of software as a service (SaaS). The obvious big names in this space will release new offerings to compete with popular desktop applications. New and existing operating systems that are built primarily to support the SaaS model will begin to be more widely accepted and adopted. 
   
   2. Netbooks 
   
   This popular form-factor will have outstanding sales and may even surpass laptop sales by year-end. Given its remarkable low-cost, we will likely see more offerings that make available free Netbooks. In addition, the ubiquity of embedded Web-cams will drive further use of personal video in both non-work and work environments. 
   
   3. Cloud Services 
   
   An obvious growth area in 2010; we will see new and expanded services from all the usual suspects. Expect major announcements from large businesses and government agencies choosing to move some of their core applications and data to the cloud. 
   
   4. Mobile Money 
   
   By late 2010, paying for products and services via a mobile device such as a cellphone will begin to emerge in the mainstream US. Multiple flavors will be available including custom applications and text messaging. More likely in 2011-12 will be the emergence of banking services from the big Telco’s. Rather than simply being a middleman, the telecommunication companies may announce banking divisions. 
   
   5. Free Software 
   
   If current trends continue, it’s quite possible that all software will be available in a form of free, but 2010 will be the first year that this trend reaches a point of inflection. A combination of enterprise-class open source, freemium, freeware, ad-supported, and alternate revenue-model software will have lasting and destructive impact on the notion of license-paid software. 
   
   6. Harvesting the Social Graph and Web-Squared 
   
   2010 will see the introduction of the first widely available and easily usable products for better understanding the mass of unstructured data being accumulated across public and private clouds. The emergence of intelligent solutions to interpret massive related and un-related data in order to create forecasts and identify trends will help people make more sense of the world and see previously hidden signals. 
   
   7. More Video 
   
   Continued investment in video infrastructures will see greater use in work and non-work environments. It will be more common (but still not ubiquitous) to have video conversations with colleagues and external parties such as customers and suppliers. Rigorous competition in this space between the major players and many start-ups will continue to push the price down for high-quality video. Greater use of PCs and Netbooks with Web-cams will continue towards critical mass. In addition, content creation will continue its profound migration from text to video, further consuming bandwidth and forcing more enterprise investment in network infrastructure. 
   
   8. Green IT 
   
   This may be a inconsistent area of investment as continued tight budgets and more immediate costs (e.g. migration to updated operating system) distract from major green initiatives. However, going into 2011 and beyond, broad adoption of virtualization and further movement towards hosting in the cloud may help organizations lower their data center carbon footprint. 
   
   9. Mobile Location-based Services (LBS) and Augmented Reality 
   
   Expect to see an extraordinary number of start-ups and existing technology companies offering mobile LBS-related services. Proximity-based solutions will become more common. Mobile devices will begin to offer compelling overlay data for the real world that help people with existing and new activities. Lots of noise and confusion will ensue as both consumers and providers try to figure out acceptable services. For example: how will people respond when they stroll through a mall and are bombarded with text messages from different retail stores? 
   
   10. Social Spaghetti Integration 
   
   More social features will begin to show up in ERP apps. New and increased support for ERP solutions that, for example: integrate social networking will see a further blurring of the lines between work and non-work applications and activities. 
   
   Do you agree or disagree with any of my predictions? I’d love to know what you think. ||||| But real-time is more than just a horde of new Twitter-like services hitting the Web in 2010 (although that's inevitable -- cargo cults abound). It's a combination of factors, from the always-connected nature of modern smartphones to the instant gratification provided by a Google search. 
   
   Why wait until you get home to post a restaurant review, asks consumer trends tracker Trendwatching, when scores of iPhone apps let you post feedback as soon as you finish dessert? Why wonder about the name of that song, when humming into your phone handset will garner an instant answer from Midomi? 
   
   Look out, too, for real-time collaboration: Google Wave launched earlier this year, resulting in both excitement and confusion. A crossover between instant messaging, e-mail and a wiki, Wave is a platform for getting things done together. Web users, however, remain baffled. In 2010, Wave's utility will become more apparent. 
   
   Location, location, location 
   
   Fueled by the ubiquity of GPS in modern smartphones, location-sharing services like Foursquare, Gowalla, Brightkite and Google Latitude are suddenly in vogue. 
   
   As I ruminated in this column two weeks ago, Foursquare and its ilk may become the breakout services of the year ... provided they're not crushed by the addition of location-based features to Twitter and Facebook. 
   
   What's clear is that location is not about any singular service; rather, it's a new layer of the Web. Soon, our whereabouts may optionally be appended to every Tweet, blog comment, photo or video we post. 
   
   Augmented reality 
   
   It's yet to become part of the consumer consciousness, but augmented reality has attracted early-adopter buzz in the latter part of 2009. ||||| Tablet PCs suck. They're underpowered, only marginally portable, and awkward to use in anything but a traditional seated position, with a desk to support them. Microsoft and its cadre of hardware partners have been trying for years to create a compelling tablet computing experience -- and consistently failed. Yet this year, persistent rumors of an Apple tablet -- an "iTablet" -- created a real buzz. But to believe that Apple can somehow succeed where all others have failed is to ignore some fundamental realities of tablet computing. 
   
   Reality No. 1: The lap doesn't work as a desk 
   
   Have you ever tried filling out a paper questionnaire on a moving train? Even with a clipboard, the mechanics are anything but graceful. With each lurch or bump you risk missing the mark. At best you end up with illegible chicken scratch; at worst, you put the pen right through the paper. It's a real mess. 
   
   [ Stay up on tech news and reviews from your smartphone at infoworldmobile.com. | Get the best iPhone apps for pros with our business iPhone apps finder. | See which smartphone is right for you in our mobile "deathmatch" calculator. ] 
   
   Now imagine this same scenario with the iTablet. You're trying to enter an e-mail address or a URL using a nifty onscreen keypad. Each time you aim for the "R" key you end up hitting "T" instead. Then, just as you go to touch the Send button, you slip and hit Cancel -- or worse. 
   
   Contrast this with a typical small laptop or netbook, where the combination of your lap and palms acts as stabilizing influences. Add the surety of a traditional keyboard -- for typing, navigating, and so on -- and this "lapdesk" modus operandi gives the clamshell form factor a distinct advantage when operating in raucous mobile environments. ||||| Smart phones will become more prevalent and NetBooks will take off, which along with broader WiFi and faster broadband speeds will make it easier to access even high-definition content on the go. 
   
   I expect the movie giants to experiment with "collapsing windows," thereby offering video-on-demand before DVD releases, giving consumers more home video options closer to a movie’s theatrical release. 
   
   The big question is whether consumers will have to pay for access to the distribution stream, as moguls like Rupert Murdoch threaten to start charging for News Corp’s web sites. 
   
   
   
   But even if sites start charging, there will always be a free alternative. And when you do pay, it will be for premium, differentiated products—the equivalent of HBO and Showtime—and will probably seem worth it. 
   
   2. Social media will grow and be increasingly influential. 
   
   Social networks and communication tools will only grow in size and influence. Twitter and Facebook allow word of mouth to travel faster than ever, and that will only accelerate as more people get smart phones and sign up for social networking services. 
   
   
   
   Social media will prove increasingly crucial for marketers to reach consumers on their home turf. And it will increasingly be the filter through which we find and consume content. 
   
   
   
   The platform Twitter and Facebook provide for consumers to broadcast their opinions will continue to disarm traditional advertising. Opinions fly so fast that movie marketers can no longer “buy” a huge opening weekend; now it’s far more important to get moviegoers on board, to have them spread the word about the film. 
   
   We can expect marketers of every kind to try to learn from the huge success of Paramount’s “Paranormal Activity.” The film's promotional campaign asks consumers to “request” that the movie open in their town. 
   
   
   
   Social media is sure to also have growing influence over the way we consume content. We follow the lead of friends who share articles or videos on Facebook. Twitter enables a customized news feed, with nearly every possible publication, blogger and journalist on board. And MySpace is turning itself into a destination for content, and for strangers in real life to be virtual friends because of shared interests. 
   
   
   
   3. More content than ever will be produced, forcing media giants to distinguish themselves from unprofessional alternatives. 
   
   
   
   The sheer amount of content available in 2010 will explode. These days it’s so easy to produce and distribute content, through YouTube , blogs populated by ads, or even a Twitter feed. That means consumers will be able to find that a blog or news site seems made just for them. Fragmentation reaches far beyond user-generated content, the cable world will continue to profit from this drive for narrower channels. 
   
   
   
   Oprah Winfrey’s move from broadcast syndication to her own cable network, OWN, speaks to the ongoing shift to greater choice that we’ll see in 2010. Viewers will continue their shift away from broadcast to more niche cable networks and advertisers will follow them. People will still watch TV instead of YouTube videos because the quality and the production value are still that much higher; user-generated options just can’t compete. 
   
   
   
   Print media will struggle even more to compete in a world crowded with citizen journalism and user-generated blogs. We can expect more local newspapers to go under as they lose subscribers and ad dollars to free, online alternatives. Even web sites like Huffington Post, which doesn’t pay many of its bloggers, can deal a real blow to national papers’ online traffic. 
   
   
   
   Meanwhile, the movie studios are dealing with the proliferation of entertainment options by moving in the opposite direction; they’re looking to capture the mainstream. Making movies is so expensive it doesn’t make sense to invest in a movie that will only attract a tiny niche. The studios will make fewer films, eliminating specialty- or art-film divisions, and instead invest in sure-thing bets. They will acquire independent films if they see real mainstream potential, like Paramount did with “Paranormal Activity,” but they won’t invest in making and distributing niche products. ||||| Paul Sancya, AP 
   
   Paul Sakuma, AP 
   
   Sponsored Links 
   
   If 2010 taught us anything, it's that few people are able to accurately predict even the simplest events in the near-term future, let alone the big ones. From the price of gold, to unemployment, to Google Wave, prognosticators got more than a few major items wrong in their predictions lists.Here, in no particular order, are "10 for 10" -- 10 of the worst predictions of 2010."Unemployment Drops Below 9 Percent," Newsweek "business predictions for 2010," December 2009.Unfortunately, despite increasing efforts to contain our nation's unemployment epidemic, the unemployment rate never dipped below 9.5 percent, and climbed to 9.8 percent in November. Let's hope that a dip in the unemployment rate below 9.5 percent is something we will see in the coming year."The GOP will make good, though not great, gains in the midterms," John Berbyshire, National Review , Dec. 30, 2009Republicans took an incredible 63 seats in the House and came within just a few seats of taking the Senate. But the next part of Derbyshire's prediction -- "They will immediately embark on a strategy guaranteed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" -- may still come to pass."A new social network will rise to join the big ones." Marshall Kirkpatrick, ReadWriteWeb , Dec. 24, 2009.Not quite. In fact, 2010 was the year of Facebook. It topped 500 million users, it was the subject of constant IPO speculation, Time named its founder Person of the Year, and it spawned a hugely successful feature film. Meantime, its competitors struggled to stay afloat (looking at you, MySpace and Bebo). In short, no one is even attempting to challenge Facebook for supremacy. Perhaps someday a new player will rise to make the king of all social networks a second-rate choice, but that day doesn't look to be coming any time soon."Twitter, as we know it, will fade away. Either acquired or shut down." CNBC Tech Check Predictions 2010 , Dec. 1, 2009Many predicted the downfall and/or complete demise of Twitter in 2010, and many were completely wrong. Twitter has instead silenced its critics by gaining more than 100 million users, increasing staff from 130 to 350 people and raising more than $200 million in financing, raising its value to $3.7 billion, all during the past 12 months "To believe that Apple can somehow succeed where all others have failed is to ignore some fundamental realities of tablet computing." Randall C. Kennedy, Infoworld.com , Dec. 22, 2009Apple still hasn't lost its golden touch: More than 4 million iPad buyers in a single quarter can attest to that."In 2010 ... netbooks will take off," Julia Boorstin, CNBC , Dec. 1, 2009Between the announcement and introduction of the iPad and its many tablet-based competitors, and the lack of performance and high prices, netbook sales spiraled downward in 2010. Expect a continued free-fall in sales unless prices are slashed drastically, or the iPad ceases to exist."In 2010, Wave's utility will become more apparent," Pete Cashmore, CNN Tech , Dec. 3, 2009Massively over-hyped during its introduction in late 2009, Google Wave was to be the central hub of our lives, merging our e-mail, social networking, instant messaging, wiki and every other form of digital media in one "easy to use" package. "Easy to use" it was not, however. So while some were optimistic that Google Wave's utility would shine through eventually, the rest of us decided to simply ignore its clunky, scatterbrained approach to digital life.Google promptly flushed Wave down the toilet in August, less than a year after its introduction."A serious correction could send the precious metal toward $870," Saxo Bank analysts, cited by CNBC , Dec. 17, 2009.Not even close to coming true. Gold prices have steadily rallied upward in the past year, rising past the $1,400 mark per troy ounce late in the year."By late 2010, paying for products and services via a mobile device such as a cell phone will begin to emerge in the mainstream U.S.," Jonathan Reichental, reichental.com , Jan. 1, 2010.Another prediction that may come to pass someday but that wasn't meant to be in 2010. Simply put, people are not yet ready to give up their credit cards in favor of a "credit phone" to pay for purchases on- or offline."We project that at least half the cast will, of their own volition, opt to stay," Sarah Ball, Newsweek , December 2009While the cast of ABC's monumental hit would probably have liked to stay on the island and continue to collect their handsome paychecks, writers instead opted to kill everyone off in the series' finale.Here's one prediction you can count on coming true: Most 2011 predictions will also be spectacularly wrong, and I'll be watching.J. Conboy is a highly opinionated freelance writer with many specialties. You can find more of his work on AOL News, AOL Travel Luxist and various other AOL sites. ||||| What might happen in the upcoming year? We asked a few of National Review Online’s sages to prophesy the events of 2010. 
   
   JOHN DERBYSHIRE 
   
   Looking over last year’s predictions, I seem to have batted not quite .500, which actually isn’t bad as these things go, but chastening none the less. Thus chastened, I’m a little less fertile of predictions this year, but here are a handful. 
   
   
   
   Science: A more or less Earth-like planet will be observed in a more or less Earth-like orbit around a more or less Sun-like star. 
   
   
   
   North Korea: Kim Jong Il will be deposed by his military. (Yes, it’s true, I cut’n’pasted that from last year’s predictions. It’s bound to happen one year soon, though, unless the little toad dies first.) 
   
   We Are Doomed: Reclaiming Conservative Pessimism 
   
   will, after three months as a “sleeper,” shoot to the top of the bestseller charts. There it will meet Sarah Palin’s cheery memoir. The two books will thereupon mutually annihilate in a burst of gamma rays. 
   
   
   
   Anniversaries: Virginia Woolf’s remark that “on or about December 1910 human character changed” will be widely quoted. 
   
   
   
   – John Derbyshire is an 
   
   National Review Online columnist and author, most recently, of columnist and author, most recently, of We Are Doomed: Reclaiming Conservative Pessimism 
   
   . 
   
   JONAH GOLDBERG 
   
   Gay rights and immigration will stay off the president’s agenda as the White House tries to claw back to the center in anticipation of the 2010 elections. Gay rights and immigration will stay off the president’s agenda as the White House tries to claw back to the center in anticipation of the 2010 elections. Rubio beats Crist in what has become a major nationalized election. The Frank Rich crowd will insist that this time it’s really, really, for honest, true that Rubio’s win spells the doom of the GOP as a mainstream party. Chris Dodd loses his election. Capital police need to use a crowbar to loosen his grip on his office desk. Harry Reid loses re-election bid, calls results an “evil lie, bought and paid for by the insurance companies.” Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire for health reasons. This will create enormous problems for Obama, as the base will demand someone even more liberal than Sotomayor, while the times will require someone more moderate. Obama will go with his gut and name a very, very, liberal nominee. The GOP will not take back the House. But it will be very, very close. 
   
   
   
   After a seemingly smooth start, troubles with Gitmo North will mount. The terror trial in New York will be a farce from the word go. 
   
   
   
   
   
   National Review Online 
   
   will have more blogs than people working for it. 
   
   
   
   A new reality show about the makers of a reality show will cause the cultural commentariat to implode in on itself. 
   
   
   
   Keith Olbermann takes himself so seriously, he cuts off his left hand to emphasize his seriousness about the public option. (He waves bloody stump at paramedic, yelling “don’t touch the hair!”). 
   
   
   
   There will be no meaningful, binding global treaty on climate change in 2010. 
   
   
   
   Iran will get the bomb even as the democracy movement gains steam. 
   
   
   
   The Goldberg File — now in newsletter format — will be so successful the suits will keep me on for another year. 
   
   
   
   – Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of 
   
   . 
   
   
   
   : Will urge a world-wide eugenics program.. Barack Obama’s illegal-immigrant aunt, Zeituni Onyango, will not be deported. (Copied that one from last year, too.): . . . will bump along the bottom, probably with a couple of small lurches downwards.: The GOP will make good, though not great, gains in the midterms. They will immediately embark on a strategy guaranteed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Go Stupid Party!: Michelle Obama will slip by her minders and say something outrageous. The MSM will not report it. Persons who refer to it will be denounced as racists. ||||| It's not exactly a return to normal, but as NEWSWEEK's Rana Foroohar points out, maybe this is the new normal. Considering where unemployment's been over the past two years, and where we feared it might be headed, sub-9 percent unemployment should be seen as a success 12 months from now, and is certainly attainable. From end to end, this recession cost us 7.2 million jobs, and essentially doubled the unemployment rate, from 4.9 percent in December 2007 to our current 10 percent. Give or take a month or two, that took two years. So shedding one point in 12 months, a 10 percent change, shouldn't be a problem. We're already headed in the right direction, having fallen from 10.2 percent to 10 percent from October to November. Since we usually add jobs in December, if only temporary ones, by early 2010 we'll likely be looking at an unemployment rate in the high 9 percent range. And don't forget: unemployment is a lagging indicator. So the economic growth that began last summer and that most economists think will continue through next year, should be more than enough to pull unemployment below 9 percent, especially with Congress's new job-creation package. Now, that's not to say that it won't spike back above 10 percent in 2011. State budgets are still a huge mess, and with no stimulus cash to bridge deficits next time around, there could be a wave of laid-off cops and teachers and firemen coming down the line. But again, unemployment's lagging, so that probably won't hit, if it does at all, until 2011; just in time for the president to start campaigning again.
target: – The media gave us plenty of predictions for 2010, and plenty of them simply didn’t come true. AOL News lists some of the most glaring: Job growth will begin again. Newsweek predicted it unemployment would fall “below 9%,” but it was never less than 9.5%. Republicans won’t storm the midterms. The National Review foresaw “good, though not great, gains.” The GOP won 63 House seats. Twitter will fizzle. Tell that to the 100 million new users this year, CNBC. We’ll start riding Google Wave. Or so thought CNN. Google shut it down within a year of its debut. Netbooks will be hot. CNBC was wrong here, too: sales sunk. The iPad won’t sell. More than 4 million buyers proved Infoworld.com incorrect. Americans will use mobile devices like credit cards. So said reichental.com. Swiped your smartphone lately?