Every day, millions of users reveal their interests on Facebook, which are then monetized via targeted advertisement marketing campaigns. In this paper, we explore the use of demographically rich Facebook Ads audience estimates for tracking non-communicable diseases around the world. Across 47 countries, we compute the audiences of marker interests, and evaluate their potential in tracking health conditions associated with tobacco use, obesity, and diabetes, compared to the performance of placebo interests. Despite its huge potential, we find that, for modeling prevalence of health conditions across countries, differences in these interest audiences are only weakly indicative of the corresponding prevalence rates. Within the countries, however, our approach provides interesting insights on trends of health awareness across demographic groups. Finally, we provide a temporal error analysis to expose the potential pitfalls of using Facebook's Marketing API as a black box.
Advertising is ubiquitous on the Web; numerous ad networks serve billions of ads daily via keyword or search term auctions. Recently, online social networks (OSNs) such as Facebook have created site-specific ad services that differ from traditional ad networks by letting advertisers bid on users rather than keywords. With Facebook's annual ad revenue exceeding $4 billion, OSN-based ad services are emerging to be a significant fraction of the online ad market. In contrast to other online ad markets (e.g., Google's ad market), there has been little academic study of OSN ad services, and OSNs have released very little data about their advertising markets; as a result, researchers currently lack the tools to measure and understand these markets. In this paper, our goal is to bring visibility to OSN ad markets, focusing on Facebook. We demonstrate that the (undocumented) feature that suggests bids to advertisers is most likely calculated via sampling recent winning bids. We then show how this feature can be used to explore the relative value of different user demographics and the overall stability of the advertising market. Through the exploration of suggested bid data for different demographics, we find dramatic differences in prices paid across different user interests and locations. Finally, we show that the ad market shows long-term variability, suggesting that OSN ad services have yet to mature. Background Understanding the social environmental around obesity has been limited by available data. One promising approach used to bridge similar gaps elsewhere is to use passively generated digital data. Purpose This article explores the relationship between online social environment via web-based social networks and population obesity prevalence. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study using linear regression and cross validation to measure the relationship and predictive performance of user interests on the online social network Facebook to obesity prevalence in metros across the United States of America (USA) and neighborhoods within New York City (NYC). The outcomes, proportion of obese and or overweight population in USA metros and NYC neighborhoods, were obtained via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance and NYC EpiQuery systems. Predictors were geographically specific proportion of users with activity-related and sedentary-related interests on Facebook. Results Higher proportion of the population with activity-related interests on Facebook was associated with a significant 12.0 (95 Confidence Interval (CI) 11.9 to 12.1) lower predicted prevalence of obese and or overweight people across USA metros and 7.2 (95 CI: 6.8 to 7.7) across NYC neighborhoods. Conversely, greater proportion of the population with interest in television was associated with higher prevalence of obese and or overweight people of 3.9 (95 CI: 3.7 to 4.0) (USA) and 27.5 (95 CI: 27.1 to 27.9, significant) (NYC). For activity-interests and national obesity outcomes, the average root mean square prediction error from 10-fold cross validation was comparable to the average root mean square error of a model developed using the entire data set. Conclusions Activity-related interests across the USA and sedentary-related interests across NYC were significantly associated with obesity prevalence. Further research is needed to understand how the online social environment relates to health outcomes and how it can be used to identify or target interventions. Background: Investigation into personal health has become focused on conditions at an increasingly local level, while response rates have declined and complicated the process of collecting data at an individual level. Simultaneously, social media data have exploded in availability and have been shown to correlate with the prevalence of certain health conditions. Objective: Facebook likes may be a source of digital data that can complement traditional public health surveillance systems and provide data at a local level. We explored the use of Facebook likes as potential predictors of health outcomes and their behavioral determinants. Methods: We performed principal components and regression analyses to examine the predictive qualities of Facebook likes with regard to mortality, diseases, and lifestyle behaviors in 214 counties across the United States and 61 of 67 counties in Florida. These results were compared with those obtainable from a demographic model. Health data were obtained from both the 2010 and 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and mortality data were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Results: Facebook likes added significant value in predicting most examined health outcomes and behaviors even when controlling for age, race, and socioeconomic status, with model fit improvements (adjusted R 2 ) of an average of 58 across models for 13 different health-related metrics over basic sociodemographic models. Small area data were not available in sufficient abundance to test the accuracy of the model in estimating health conditions in less populated markets, but initial analysis using data from Florida showed a strong model fit for obesity data (adjusted R 2 =.77). Conclusions: Facebook likes provide estimates for examined health outcomes and health behaviors that are comparable to those obtained from the BRFSS. Online sources may provide more reliable, timely, and cost-effective county-level data than that obtainable from traditional public health surveillance systems as well as serve as an adjunct to those systems. [J Med Internet Res 2015;17(4):e98] Not all of the over one billion users of online social networks (OSNs) are equally valuable to the OSNs. The current business model of monetizing advertisements targeted to users does not appear to be based on any visible grouping of the users. The primary metrics remain CPM (cost per mille---i.e., thousand impressions) and CPC (cost per click) of ads that are shown to users. However, there is significant diversity in the actions of users---some users upload interesting content triggering additional views and comments leading to further cascades of action. Beyond direct impressions, a user's action can generate indirect impressions by actions induced on friends and other users. Identifying the valuable user segments requires examination of profile data, friendships, and most importantly, their activity. Here we explore an alternate approach for measuring the value of users in OSNs by proposing a framework from the viewpoint of a popular OSN. Using a real dataset on the social network and activities of users, we show that a small subset of actions are likely to be key indicators of a user's value. Additionally, by examining the current targeting demographics available in Facebook, we are able to explore the relative (monetary) value that different users represent to the OSN.