In trick-taking card games, a two-step process of state sampling and evaluation is widely used to approximate move values. While the evaluation component is vital, the accuracy of move value estimates is also fundamentally linked to how well the sampling distribution corresponds the true distribution. Despite this, recent work in trick-taking card game AI has mainly focused on improving evaluation algorithms with limited work on improving sampling. In this paper, we focus on the effect of sampling on the strength of a player and propose a novel method of sampling more realistic states given move history. In particular, we use predictions about locations of individual cards made by a deep neural network --- trained on data from human gameplay - in order to sample likely worlds for evaluation. This technique, used in conjunction with Perfect Information Monte Carlo (PIMC) search, provides a substantial increase in cardplay strength in the popular trick-taking card game of Skat.
This paper investigates the problems arising in the construction of a program to play the game of contract bridge. These problems include both the difficulty of solving the game's perfect information variant, and techniques needed to address the fact that bridge is not, in fact, a perfect information game. GIB, the program being described, involves five separate technical advances: partition search, the practical application of Monte Carlo techniques to realistic problems, a focus on achievable sets to solve problems inherent in the Monte Carlo approach, an extension of alpha-beta pruning from total orders to arbitrary distributive lattices, and the use of squeaky wheel optimization to find approximately optimal solutions to cardplay problems. GIB is currently believed to be of approximately expert caliber, and is currently the strongest computer bridge program in the world. Perfect information Monte Carlo (PIMC) search is the method of choice for constructing strong Al systems for trick-taking card games. PIMC search evaluates moves in imperfect information games by repeatedly sampling worlds based on state inference and estimating move values by solving the corresponding perfect information scenarios. PIMC search performs well in trick-taking card games despite the fact that it suffers from the strategy fusion problem, whereby the game's information set structure is ignored because moves are evaluated opportunistically in each world. In this paper we describe imperfect information Monte Carlo (IIMC) search, which aims at mitigating this problem by basing move evaluation on more realistic playout sequences rather than perfect information move values. We show that RecPIMC - a recursive IIMC search variant based on perfect information evaluation - performs considerably better than PIMC search in a large class of synthetic imperfect information games and the popular card game of Skat, for which PIMC search is the state-of-the-art cardplay algorithm. Skat is Germany's national card game played by millions of players around the world. In this paper, we present the world's first computer skat player that plays at the level of human experts. This performance is achieved by improving state evaluations using game data produced by human players and by using these state evaluations to perform inference on the unobserved hands of opposing players. Our results demonstrate the gains from adding inference to an imperfect information game player and show that training on data from average human players can result in expert-level playing strength.