Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. A large body of research considers each ad independently, but ignores its relationship to other ads that may impact the CTR. In this paper, we investigate various types of auxiliary ads for improving the CTR prediction of the target ad. In particular, we explore auxiliary ads from two viewpoints: one is from the spatial domain, where we consider the contextual ads shown above the target ad on the same page; the other is from the temporal domain, where we consider historically clicked and unclicked ads of the user. The intuitions are that ads shown together may influence each other, clicked ads reflect a user's preferences, and unclicked ads may indicate what a user dislikes to certain extent. In order to effectively utilize these auxiliary data, we propose the Deep Spatio-Temporal neural Networks (DSTNs) for CTR prediction. Our model is able to learn the interactions between each type of auxiliary data and the target ad, to emphasize more important hidden information, and to fuse heterogeneous data in a unified framework. Offline experiments on one public dataset and two industrial datasets show that DSTNs outperform several state-of-the-art methods for CTR prediction. We have deployed the best-performing DSTN in Shenma Search, which is the second largest search engine in China. The A B test results show that the online CTR is also significantly improved compared to our last serving model.
This paper is concerned with the prediction of clicking an ad in sponsored search. The accurate prediction of user's click on an ad plays an important role in sponsored search, because it is widely used in both ranking and pricing of the ads. Previous work on click prediction usually takes a single ad as input, and ignores its relationship to the other ads shown in the same page. This independence assumption here, however, might not be valid in the real scenario. In this paper, we first perform an analysis on this issue by looking at the click-through rates (CTR) of the same ad, in the same position and for the same query, but surrounded by different ads. We found that in most cases the CTR varies largely, which suggests that the relationship between ads is really an important factor in predicting click probability. Furthermore, our investigation shows that the more similar the surrounding ads are to an ad, the lower the CTR of the ad is. Based on this observation, we design a continuous conditional random fields (CRF) based model for click prediction, which considers both the features of an ad and its similarity to the surrounding ads. We show that the model can be effectively learned using maximum likelihood estimation, and can also be efficiently inferred due to its closed form solution. Our experimental results on the click-through log from a commercial search engine show that the proposed model can predict clicks more accurately than previous independent models. To our best knowledge this is the first work that predicts ad clicks by considering the relationship between ads. Click prediction is one of the fundamental problems in sponsored search. Most of existing studies took advantage of machine learning approaches to predict ad click for each event of ad view independently. However, as observed in the real-world sponsored search system, user's behaviors on ads yield high dependency on how the user behaved along with the past time, especially in terms of what queries she submitted, what ads she clicked or ignored, and how long she spent on the landing pages of clicked ads, etc. Inspired by these observations, we introduce a novel framework based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). Compared to traditional methods, this framework directly models the dependency on user's sequential behaviors into the click prediction process through the recurrent structure in RNN. Large scale evaluations on the click-through logs from a commercial search engine demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve the click prediction accuracy, compared to sequence-independent approaches.