We study the cohesion within and the coalitions between political groups in the Eighth European Parliament (2014–2019) by analyzing two entirely different aspects of the behavior of the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the policy-making processes. On one hand, we analyze their co-voting patterns and, on the other, their retweeting behavior. We make use of two diverse datasets in the analysis. The first one is the roll-call vote dataset, where cohesion is regarded as the tendency to co-vote within a group, and a coalition is formed when the members of several groups exhibit a high degree of co-voting agreement on a subject. The second dataset comes from Twitter; it captures the retweeting (i.e., endorsing) behavior of the MEPs and implies cohesion (retweets within the same group) and coalitions (retweets between groups) from a completely different perspective. We employ two different methodologies to analyze the cohesion and coalitions. The first one is based on Krippendorff’s Alpha reliability, used to measure the agreement between raters in data-analysis scenarios, and the second one is based on Exponential Random Graph Models, often used in social-network analysis. We give general insights into the cohesion of political groups in the European Parliament, explore whether coalitions are formed in the same way for different policy areas, and examine to what degree the retweeting behavior of MEPs corresponds to their co-voting patterns. A novel and interesting aspect of our work is the relationship between the co-voting and retweeting patterns.
The widespread adoption of social media for political communication creates unprecedented opportunities to monitor the opinions of large numbers of politically active individuals in real time. However, without a way to distinguish between users of opposing political alignments, conflicting signals at the individual level may, in the aggregate, obscure partisan differences in opinion that are important to political strategy. In this article we describe several methods for predicting the political alignment of Twitter users based on the content and structure of their political communication in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections. Using a data set of 1,000 manually-annotated individuals, we find that a support vector machine (SVM) trained on hash tag metadata outperforms an SVM trained on the full text of users' tweets, yielding predictions of political affiliations with 91 accuracy. Applying latent semantic analysis to the content of users' tweets we identify hidden structure in the data strongly associated with political affiliation, but do not find that topic detection improves prediction performance. All of these content-based methods are outperformed by a classifier based on the segregated community structure of political information diffusion networks (95 accuracy). We conclude with a practical application of this machinery to web-based political advertising, and outline several approaches to public opinion monitoring based on the techniques developed herein. We present a generic approach to real-time monitoring of the Twitter sentiment and show its application to the Bulgarian parliamentary elections in May 2013. Our approach is based on building high quality sentiment classification models from manually annotated tweets. In particular, we have developed a user-friendly annotation platform, a feature selection procedure based on maximizing prediction accuracy, and a binary SVM classifier extended with a neutral zone. We have also considerably improved the language detection in tweets. The evaluation results show that before and after the Bulgarian elections, negative sentiment about political parties prevailed. Both, the volume and the difference between the negative and positive tweets for individual parties closely match the election results. The later result is somehow surprising, but consistent with the prevailing negative sentiment during the elections.  Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media. Transmitting messages in the most efficient way as possible has always been one of politicians’ main concerns during electoral processes. Due to the rapidly growing number of users, online social networks have become ideal platforms for politicians to interact with their potential voters. Exploiting the available potential of these tools to maximize their influence over voters is one of politicians’ actual challenges. To step in this direction, we have analyzed the user activity in the online social network Twitter, during the 2011 Spanish Presidential electoral process, and found that such activity is correlated with the election results. We introduce a new measure to study political sentiment in Twitter, which we call the relative support. We have also characterized user behavior by analyzing the structural and dynamical patterns of the complex networks emergent from the mention and retweet networks. Our results suggest that the collective attention is driven by a very small fraction of users. Furthermo... The structure of the social networks in which individuals are embedded influences their political choices and therefore their voting behavior. Nowadays, social media represent a new channel for individuals to communicate, what together with the availability of the data, makes it possible to analyze the online social network resulting from political conversations. Here, by taking advantage of the recently developed techniques to analyze complex systems, we map the communication patterns resulting from Spanish political conversations. We identify the different existing communities, building networks of communities, and finding that users cluster themselves in politically homogeneous networks. We found that while most of the collective attention was monopolized by politicians, traditional media accounts were still the preferred sources from which to propagate information. Finally, we propose methods to analyze the use of different languages, finding a clear trend from sympathizers of several political parties to overuse or infra-use each language. We conclude that, on the light of a social media analysis perspective, the political conversation is constrained by both ideology and language. ABSTRACTAlthough conceptual efforts have often suggested that the Internet harbors considerable possibilities to revolutionize political participation, empirical studies have often presented rather limited impacts in this regard. Nevertheless, novel online services such as Twitter are still pointed to as having potential to be employed by citizens and politicians alike. Utilizing state-of-the-art data collection methods, this study builds on the suggestions of previous research and gauges the degree to which EU parliamentarians make use of Twitter for so-called permanent campaigning. Specifically, the paper seeks to assess the degree to which Twitter use by European Parliament representatives can be described as being characterized by permanence—a concept related to the professionalization of political campaigns. Thus, by examining these uses outside of election periods, the study provides useful insights into the day-to-day uses of Twitter, contributing to the limited body of work focusing on the everyda...