Forecasting the movements of stock prices is one the most challenging problems in financial markets analysis. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of future price movements using limit order book data. Two different sets of features are combined and evaluated: handcrafted features based on the raw order book data and features extracted by ML algorithms, resulting in feature vectors with highly variant dimensionalities. Three classifiers are evaluated using combinations of these sets of features on two different evaluation setups and three prediction scenarios. Even though the large scale and high frequency nature of the limit order book poses several challenges, the scope of the conducted experiments and the significance of the experimental results indicate that Machine Learning highly befits this task carving the path towards future research in this field.
We propose a machine learning framework to capture the dynamics of high-frequency limit order books in financial equity markets and automate real-time prediction of metrics such as mid-price movement and price spread crossing. By characterizing each entry in a limit order book with a vector of attributes such as price and volume at different levels, the proposed framework builds a learning model for each metric with the help of multi-class support vector machines. Experiments with real data establish that features selected by the proposed framework are effective for short-term price movement forecasts.