In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4 in offline experiments and up to 17.5 in an online A B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies.
Online advertising allows advertisers to only bid and pay for measurable user responses, such as clicks on ads. As a consequence, click prediction systems are central to most online advertising systems. With over 750 million daily active users and over 1 million active advertisers, predicting clicks on Facebook ads is a challenging machine learning task. In this paper we introduce a model which combines decision trees with logistic regression, outperforming either of these methods on its own by over 3 , an improvement with significant impact to the overall system performance. We then explore how a number of fundamental parameters impact the final prediction performance of our system. Not surprisingly, the most important thing is to have the right features: those capturing historical information about the user or ad dominate other types of features. Once we have the right features and the right model (decisions trees plus logistic regression), other factors play small roles (though even small improvements are important at scale). Picking the optimal handling for data freshness, learning rate schema and data sampling improve the model slightly, though much less than adding a high-value feature, or picking the right model to begin with. Mobile advertising has recently seen dramatic growth, fueled by the global proliferation of mobile phones and devices. The task of predicting ad response is thus crucial for maximizing business revenue. However, ad response data change dynamically over time, and are subject to cold-start situations in which limited history hinders reliable prediction. There is also a need for a robust regression estimation for high prediction accuracy, and good ranking to distinguish the impacts of different ads. To this end, we develop a Hierarchical Importance-aware Factorization Machine (HIFM), which provides an effective generic latent factor framework that incorporates importance weights and hierarchical learning. Comprehensive empirical studies on a real-world mobile advertising dataset show that HIFM outperforms the contemporary temporal latent factor models. The results also demonstrate the efficacy of the HIFM's importance-aware and hierarchical learning in improving the overall prediction and prediction in cold-start scenarios, respectively. We describe a new approach to solving the click-through rate (CTR) prediction problem in sponsored search by means of MatrixNet, the proprietary implementation of boosted trees. This problem is of special importance for the search engine, because choosing the ads to display substantially depends on the predicted CTR and greatly affects the revenue of the search engine and user experience. We discuss different issues such as evaluating and tuning MatrixNet algorithm, feature importance, performance, accuracy and training data set size. Finally, we compare MatrixNet with several other methods and present experimental results from the production system. We describe a new Bayesian click-through rate (CTR) prediction algorithm used for Sponsored Search in Microsoft's Bing search engine. The algorithm is based on a probit regression model that maps discrete or real-valued input features to probabilities. It maintains Gaussian beliefs over weights of the model and performs Gaussian online updates derived from approximate message passing. Scalability of the algorithm is ensured through a principled weight pruning procedure and an approximate parallel implementation. We discuss the challenges arising from evaluating and tuning the predictor as part of the complex system of sponsored search where the predictions made by the algorithm decide about future training sample composition. Finally, we show experimental results from the production system and compare to a calibrated Naive Bayes algorithm.