Compounding of natural language units is a very common phenomena. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that Twitter hashtags which, could be considered as correlates of such linguistic units, undergo compounding. We identify reasons for this compounding and propose a prediction model that can identify with 77.07 accuracy if a pair of hashtags compounding in the near future (i.e., 2 months after compounding) shall become popular. At longer times T = 6, 10 months the accuracies are 77.52 and 79.13 respectively. This technique has strong implications to trending hashtag recommendation since newly formed hashtag compounds can be recommended early, even before the compounding has taken place. Further, humans can predict compounds with an overall accuracy of only 48.7 (treated as baseline). Notably, while humans can discriminate the relatively easier cases, the automatic framework is successful in classifying the relatively harder cases.
Researchers and social observers have both believed that hashtags, as a new type of organizational objects of information, play a dual role in online microblogging communities (e.g., Twitter). On one hand, a hashtag serves as a bookmark of content, which links tweets with similar topics; on the other hand, a hashtag serves as the symbol of a community membership, which bridges a virtual community of users. Are the real users aware of this dual role of hashtags? Is the dual role affecting their behavior of adopting a hashtag? Is hashtag adoption predictable? We take the initiative to investigate and quantify the effects of the dual role on hashtag adoption. We propose comprehensive measures to quantify the major factors of how a user selects content tags as well as joins communities. Experiments using large scale Twitter datasets prove the effectiveness of the dual role, where both the content measures and the community measures significantly correlate to hashtag adoption on Twitter. With these measures as features, a machine learning model can effectively predict the future adoption of hashtags that a user has never used before. We examine the growth, survival, and context of 256 novel hashtags during the 2012 U.S. presidential debates. Our analysis reveals the trajectories of hashtag use fall into two distinct classes: "winners" that emerge more quickly and are sustained for longer periods of time than other "also-rans" hashtags. We propose a "conversational vibrancy" framework to capture dynamics of hashtags based on their topicality, interactivity, diversity, and prominence. Statistical analyses of the growth and persistence of hashtags reveal novel relationships between features of this framework and the relative success of hashtags. Specifically, retweets always contribute to faster hashtag adoption, replies extend the life of "winners" while having no effect on "also-rans." This is the first study on the lifecycle of hashtag adoption and use in response to purely exogenous shocks. We draw on theories of uses and gratification, organizational ecology, and language evolution to discuss these findings and their implications for understanding social influence and collective action in social media more generally. We present results of network analyses of information diffusion on Twitter, via users’ ongoing social interactions as denoted by “@username” mentions. Incorporating survival analysis, we constructed a novel model to capture the three major properties of information diffusion: speed, scale, and range. On the whole, we find that some properties of the tweets themselves predict greater information propagation but that properties of the users, the rate with which a user is mentioned historically in particular, are equal or stronger predictors. Implications for end users and system designers are discussed.