We study the problem of analyzing influence of various factors affecting individual messages posted in social media. The problem is challenging because of various types of influences propagating through the social media network that act simultaneously on any user. Additionally, the topic composition of the influencing factors and the susceptibility of users to these influences evolve over time. This problem has not studied before, and off-the-shelf models are unsuitable for this purpose. To capture the complex interplay of these various factors, we propose a new non-parametric model called the Dynamic Multi-Relational Chinese Restaurant Process. This accounts for the user network for data generation and also allows the parameters to evolve over time. Designing inference algorithms for this model suited for large scale social-media data is another challenge. To this end, we propose a scalable and multi-threaded inference algorithm based on online Gibbs Sampling. Extensive evaluations on large-scale Twitter and Facebook data show that the extracted topics when applied to authorship and commenting prediction outperform state-of-the-art baselines. More importantly, our model produces valuable insights on topic trends and user personality trends, beyond the capability of existing approaches.
Historical user activity is key for building user profiles to predict the user behavior and affinities in many web applications such as targeting of online advertising, content personalization and social recommendations. User profiles are temporal, and changes in a user's activity patterns are particularly useful for improved prediction and recommendation. For instance, an increased interest in car-related web pages may well suggest that the user might be shopping for a new vehicle.In this paper we present a comprehensive statistical framework for user profiling based on topic models which is able to capture such effects in a fully fashion. Our method models topical interests of a user dynamically where both the user association with the topics and the topics themselves are allowed to vary over time, thus ensuring that the profiles remain current. We describe a streaming, distributed inference algorithm which is able to handle tens of millions of users. Our results show that our model contributes towards improved behavioral targeting of display advertising relative to baseline models that do not incorporate topical and or temporal dependencies. As a side-effect our model yields human-understandable results which can be used in an intuitive fashion by advertisers. We consider problems involving groups of data where each observation within a group is a draw from a mixture model and where it is desirable to share mixture components between groups. We assume that the number of mixture components is unknown a priori and is to be inferred from the data. In this setting it is natural to consider sets of Dirichlet processes, one for each group, where the well-known clustering property of the Dirichlet process provides a nonparametric prior for the number of mixture components within each group. Given our desire to tie the mixture models in the various groups, we consider a hierarchical model, specifically one in which the base measure for the child Dirichlet processes is itself distributed according to a Dirichlet process. Such a base measure being discrete, the child Dirichlet processes necessarily share atoms. Thus, as desired, the mixture models in the different groups necessarily share mixture components. We discuss representations of hierarchical Dirichlet processes ... We describe latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), a generative probabilistic model for collections of discrete data such as text corpora. LDA is a three-level hierarchical Bayesian model, in which each item of a collection is modeled as a finite mixture over an underlying set of topics. Each topic is, in turn, modeled as an infinite mixture over an underlying set of topic probabilities. In the context of text modeling, the topic probabilities provide an explicit representation of a document. We present efficient approximate inference techniques based on variational methods and an EM algorithm for empirical Bayes parameter estimation. We report results in document modeling, text classification, and collaborative filtering, comparing to a mixture of unigrams model and the probabilistic LSI model.