Finding hot topics in scholarly fields can help researchers to keep up with the latest concepts, trends, and inventions in their field of interest. Due to the rarity of complete large-scale scholarly data, earlier studies target this problem based on manual topic extraction from a limited number of domains, with their focus solely on a single feature such as coauthorship, citation relations, and etc. Given the compromised effectiveness of such predictions, in this paper we use a real scholarly dataset from Microsoft Academic Graph, which provides more than 12000 topics in the field of Computer Science (CS), including 1200 venues, 14.4 million authors, 30 million papers and their citation relations over the period of 1950 till now. Aiming to find the topics that will trend in CS area, we innovatively formalize a hot topic prediction problem where, with joint consideration of both inter- and intra-topical influence, 17 different scientific features are extracted for comprehensive description of topic status. By leveraging all those 17 features, we observe good accuracy of topic scale forecasting after 5 and 10 years with R2 values of 0.9893 and 0.9646, respectively. Interestingly, our prediction suggests that the maximum value matters in finding hot topics in scholarly fields, primarily from three aspects: (1) the maximum value of each factor, such as authors' maximum h-index and largest citation number, provides three times the amount of information than the average value in prediction; (2) the mutual influence between the most correlated topics serve as the most telling factor in long-term topic trend prediction, interpreting that those currently exhibiting the maximum growth rates will drive the correlated topics to be hot in the future; (3) we predict in the next 5 years the top 100 fastest growing (maximum growth rate) topics that will potentially get the major attention in CS area.
Finding topics from a collection of documents, such as research publications, patents, and technical reports, is helpful for summarizing large scale text collections and the world wide web. It can also help forecast topic trends in the future. This can be beneficial for many applications, such as modeling the evolution of the direction of research and forecasting future trends of the IT industry. In this paper, we propose using association analysis and ensemble forecasting to automatically discover topics from a set of text documents and forecast their evolving trend in a near future. In order to discover meaningful topics, we collect publications from a particular research area, data mining and machine learning, as our data domain. An association analysis process is applied to the collected data to first identify a set of topics, followed by a temporal correlation analysis to help discover correlations between topics, and identify a network of topics and communities. After that, an ensemble forecasting approach is proposed to predict the popularity of research topics in the future. Our experiments and validations on data with 9 years of publication records validate the effectiveness of the proposed design. Recent years have witnessed increased interests in topic detection and tracking (TDT). However, existing work mainly focuses on overall trend analysis, and is not developed for understanding the evolving process of topics. To this end, this paper aims to reveal the underlying process and reasons for topic formation and development (TFD). Along this line, based on community partitioning in social networks, a core-group model is proposed to explain the dynamics and to segment topic development. This model is inspired by the cell division mechanism in biology. Furthermore, according to the division phase and interphase in the life cycle of a core group, a topic is separated into four states including birth state, extending state, saturation state and shrinkage state. In this paper, we mainly focus our studies on scientific topic formation and development using the citation network structure among scientific papers. Experimental results on two real-world data sets show that the division of a core group brings on the generation of a new scientific topic. The results also reveal that the progress of an entire scientific topic is closely correlated to the growth of a core group during its interphase. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in several real-life scenarios.