Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.
Abstract The budgeted maximum coverage problem is: given a collection S of sets with associated costs defined over a domain of weighted elements, and a budget L , find a subset of S ′⫅ S such that the total cost of sets in S ′ does not exceed L , and the total weight of elements covered by S ′ is maximized. This problem is NP-hard. For the special case of this problem, where each set has unit cost, a (1−1 e ) -approximation is known. Yet, prior to this work, no approximation results were known for the general cost version. The contribution of this paper is a (1−1 e ) -approximation algorithm for the budgeted maximum coverage problem. We also argue that this approximation factor is the best possible, unless NP ⫅ DTIME (n O ( log log n) ) . The problem of deploying sensors in a large water distribution network is considered, in order to detect the malicious introduction of contaminants. It is shown that a large class of realistic objective functions—such as reduction of detection time and the population protected from consuming contaminated water—exhibits an important diminishing returns effect called submodularity. The submodularity of these objectives is exploited in order to design efficient placement algorithms with provable performance guarantees. The algorithms presented in this paper do not rely on mixed integer programming, and scale well to networks of arbitrary size. The problem instances considered in the approach presented in this paper are orders of magnitude (a factor of 72) larger than the largest problems solved in the literature. It is shown how the method presented here can be extended to multicriteria optimization, selecting placements robust to sensor failures and optimizing minimax criteria. Extensive empirical evidence ...  Given a water distribution network, where should we place sensors toquickly detect contaminants? Or, which blogs should we read to avoid missing important stories?. These seemingly different problems share common structure: Outbreak detection can be modeled as selecting nodes (sensor locations, blogs) in a network, in order to detect the spreading of a virus or information asquickly as possible. We present a general methodology for near optimal sensor placement in these and related problems. We demonstrate that many realistic outbreak detection objectives (e.g., detection likelihood, population affected) exhibit the property of "submodularity". We exploit submodularity to develop an efficient algorithm that scales to large problems, achieving near optimal placements, while being 700 times faster than a simple greedy algorithm. We also derive online bounds on the quality of the placements obtained by any algorithm. Our algorithms and bounds also handle cases where nodes (sensor locations, blogs) have different costs. We evaluate our approach on several large real-world problems,including a model of a water distribution network from the EPA, andreal blog data. The obtained sensor placements are provably near optimal, providing a constant fraction of the optimal solution. We show that the approach scales, achieving speedups and savings in storage of several orders of magnitude. We also show how the approach leads to deeper insights in both applications, answering multicriteria trade-off, cost-sensitivity and generalization questions.