This paper introduces TwitterPaul, a system designed to make use of Social Media data to help to predict game outcomes for the 2010 FIFA World Cup tournament. To this end, we extracted over 538K mentions to football games from a large sample of tweets that occurred during the World Cup, and we classified into different types with a precision of up to 88 . The different mentions were aggregated in order to make predictions about the outcomes of the actual games. We attempt to learn which Twitter users are accurate predictors and explore several techniques in order to exploit this information to make more accurate predictions. We compare our results to strong baselines and against the betting line (prediction market) and found that the quality of extractions is more important than the quantity, suggesting that high precision methods working on a medium-sized dataset are preferable over low precision methods that use a larger amount of data. Finally, by aggregating some classes of predictions, the system performance is close to the one of the betting line. Furthermore, we believe that this domain independent framework can help to predict other sports, elections, product release dates and other future events that people talk about in social media.
The paper presents a multi-document summarization system which builds company-specific summaries from a collection of financial news such that the extracted sentences contain novel and relevant information about the corresponding organization. The user's familiarity with the company's profile is assumed. The goal of such summaries is to provide information useful for the short-term trading of the corresponding company, i.e., to facilitate the inference from news to stock price movement in the next day. We introduce a novel query (i.e., company name) expansion method and a simple unsupervized algorithm for sentence ranking. The system shows promising results in comparison with a competitive baseline.