Assessing and predicting the complex concept of software quality is still challenging in practice as well as research. Activity-based quality models break down this complex concept into more concrete definitions, more precisely facts about the system, process and environment and their impact on activities performed on and with the system. However, these models lack an operationalisation that allows to use them in assessment and prediction of quality. Bayesian Networks (BN) have been shown to be a viable means for assessment and prediction incorporating variables with uncertainty. This paper describes how activity-based quality models can be used to derive BN models for quality assessment and prediction. The proposed approach is demonstrated in a proof of concept using publicly available data.
Software practitioners lack a consistent approach to assessing and predicting quality within their products. This research proposes a software quality model that accounts for the influences of development team skill experience, process maturity, and problem complexity throughout the software engineering life cycle. The model is structured using Bayesian Belief Networks and, unlike previous efforts, uses widely-accepted software engineering standards and in-use industry techniques to quantify the indicators and measures of software quality. Data from 28 software engineering projects was acquired for this study, and was used for validation and comparison of the presented software quality models. Three Bayesian model structures are explored and the structure with the highest performance in terms of accuracy of fit and predictive validity is reported. In addition, the Bayesian Belief Networks are compared to both Least Squares Regression and Neural Networks in order to identify the technique is best suited to modeling software product quality. The results indicate that Bayesian Belief Networks outperform both Least Squares Regression and Neural Networks in terms of producing modeled software quality variables that fit the distribution of actual software quality values, and in accurately forecasting 25 different indicators of software quality. Between the Bayesian model structures, the simplest structure, which relates software quality variables to their correlated causal factors, was found to be the most effective in modeling software quality. In addition, the results reveal that the collective skill and experience of the development team, over process maturity or problem complexity, has the most significant impact on the quality of software products. The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian belief networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.