Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) and costs hospitals billions annually. Treating a septic patient is highly challenging, because individual patients respond very differently to medical interventions and there is no universally agreed-upon treatment for sepsis. Understanding more about a patient's physiological state at a given time could hold the key to effective treatment policies. In this work, we propose a new approach to deduce optimal treatment policies for septic patients by using continuous state-space models and deep reinforcement learning. Learning treatment policies over continuous spaces is important, because we retain more of the patient's physiological information. Our model is able to learn clinically interpretable treatment policies, similar in important aspects to the treatment policies of physicians. Evaluating our algorithm on past ICU patient data, we find that our model could reduce patient mortality in the hospital by up to 3.6 over observed clinical policies, from a baseline mortality of 13.7 . The learned treatment policies could be used to aid intensive care clinicians in medical decision making and improve the likelihood of patient survival.
Misdosing medications with sensitive therapeutic windows, such as heparin, can place patients at unnecessary risk, increase length of hospital stay, and lead to wasted hospital resources. In this work, we present a clinician-in-the-loop sequential decision making framework, which provides an individualized dosing policy adapted to each patient's evolving clinical phenotype. We employed retrospective data from the publicly available MIMIC II intensive care unit database, and developed a deep reinforcement learning algorithm that learns an optimal heparin dosing policy from sample dosing trails and their associated outcomes in large electronic medical records. Using separate training and testing datasets, our model was observed to be effective in proposing heparin doses that resulted in better expected outcomes than the clinical guidelines. Our results demonstrate that a sequential modeling approach, learned from retrospective data, could potentially be used at the bedside to derive individualized patient dosing policies. The management of invasive mechanical ventilation, and the regulation of sedation and analgesia during ventilation, constitutes a major part of the care of patients admitted to intensive care units. Both prolonged dependence on mechanical ventilation and premature extubation are associated with increased risk of complications and higher hospital costs, but clinical opinion on the best protocol for weaning patients off of a ventilator varies. This work aims to develop a decision support tool that uses available patient information to predict time-to-extubation readiness and to recommend a personalized regime of sedation dosage and ventilator support. To this end, we use off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms to determine the best action at a given patient state from sub-optimal historical ICU data. We compare treatment policies from fitted Q-iteration with extremely randomized trees and with feedforward neural networks, and demonstrate that the policies learnt show promise in recommending weaning protocols with improved outcomes, in terms of minimizing rates of reintubation and regulating physiological stability. This paper highlights the role that reinforcement learning can play in the optimization of treatment policies for chronic illnesses. Before applying any off-the-shelf reinforcement learning methods in this setting, we must first tackle a number of challenges. We outline some of these challenges and present methods for overcoming them. First, we describe a multiple imputation approach to overcome the problem of missing data. Second, we discuss the use of function approximation in the context of a highly variable observation set. Finally, we discuss approaches to summarizing the evidence in the data for recommending a particular action and quantifying the uncertainty around the Q-function of the recommended policy. We present the results of applying these methods to real clinical trial data of patients with schizophrenia.