Given a graphical model, one essential problem is MAP inference, that is, finding the most likely configuration of states according to the model. Although this problem is NP-hard, large instances can be solved in practice. A major open question is to explain why this is true. We give a natural condition under which we can provably perform MAP inference in polynomial time. We require that the number of fractional vertices in the LP relaxation exceeding the optimal solution is bounded by a polynomial in the problem size. This resolves an open question by Dimakis, Gohari, and Wainwright. In contrast, for general LP relaxations of integer programs, known techniques can only handle a constant number of fractional vertices whose value exceeds the optimal solution. We experimentally verify this condition and demonstrate how efficient various integer programming methods are at removing fractional solutions.
Belief propagation is a remarkably effective tool for inference, even when applied to networks with cycles. It may be viewed as a way to seek the minimum of the Bethe free energy, though with no convergence guarantee in general. A variational perspective shows that, compared to exact inference, this minimization employs two forms of approximation: (i) the true entropy is approximated by the Bethe entropy, and (ii) the minimization is performed over a relaxation of the marginal polytope termed the local polytope. Here we explore when and how the Bethe approximation can fail for binary pairwise models by examining each aspect of the approximation, deriving results both analytically and with new experimental methods.