Twitter as a new form of social media potentially contains useful information that opens new opportunities for content analysis on tweets. This paper examines the predictive power of Twitter regarding the US presidential election of 2012. For this study, we analyzed 32 million tweets regarding the US presidential election by employing a combination of machine learning techniques. We devised an advanced classifier for sentiment analysis in order to increase the accuracy of Twitter content analysis. We carried out our analysis by comparing Twitter results with traditional opinion polls. In addition, we used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to extract the underlying topical structure from the selected tweets. Our results show that we can determine the popularity of candidates by running sentiment analysis. We can also uncover candidates popularities in the US states by running the sentiment analysis algorithm on geo-tagged tweets. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work in the field has presented a systematic analysis of a considerable number of tweets employing a combination of analysis techniques by which we conducted this study. Thus, our results aptly suggest that Twitter as a well-known social medium is a valid source in predicting future events such as elections. This implies that understanding public opinions and trends via social media in turn allows us to propose a cost- and time-effective way not only for spreading and sharing information, but also for predicting future events.
Social media technologies collapse multiple audiences into single contexts, making it difficult for people to use the same techniques online that they do to handle multiplicity in face-to-face conversation. This article investigates how content producers navigate ‘imagined audiences’ on Twitter. We talked with participants who have different types of followings to understand their techniques, including targeting different audiences, concealing subjects, and maintaining authenticity. Some techniques of audience management resemble the practices of ‘micro-celebrity’ and personal branding, both strategic self-commodification. Our model of the networked audience assumes a many-to-many communication through which individuals conceptualize an imagined audience evoked through their tweets. The power to predict outcomes based on Twitter data is greatly exaggerated, especially for political elections. Every second, the thoughts and feelings of millions of people across the world are recorded in the form of 140-character tweets using Twitter. However, despite the enormous potential presented by this remarkable data source, we still do not have an understanding of the Twitter population itself: Who are the Twitter users? How representative of the overall population are they? In this paper, we take the first steps towards answering these questions by analyzing data on a set of Twitter users representing over 1 of the U.S. population. We develop techniques that allow us to compare the Twitter population to the U.S. population along three axes (geography, gender, and race ethnicity), and find that the Twitter population is a highly non-uniform sample of the population.