Deep learning provides a powerful tool for robotic perception in the open world. However, real-world robotic systems, especially mobile robots, must be able to react intelligently and safely even in unexpected circumstances. This requires a system that knows what it knows, and can estimate its own uncertainty for unfamiliar, out-of-distribution observations. Approximate Bayesian approaches are commonly used to estimate uncertainty for neural network predictions, but struggle with out-of-distribution observations. Generative models can in principle detect out-of-distribution observations as those with a low estimated density, but overly pessimistic as an uncertainty measure, since the mere presence of an out-of-distribution input does not by itself indicate an unsafe situation. Intuitively, we would like a perception system that can detect when task-salient parts of the image are unfamiliar or uncertain, while ignoring task-irrelevant features. In this paper, we present a method for uncertainty-aware robotic perception that combines generative modeling and model uncertainty. Our method estimates an uncertainty measure about the model’s prediction, taking into account an explicit generative model of the observation distribution to handle out-of-distribution inputs. We evaluate our method on an action-conditioned collision prediction task with both simulated and real data, and demonstrate that our approach improves on a variety of Bayesian neural network techniques.
We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression cost, known as the variational free energy or the expected lower bound on the marginal likelihood. We show that this principled kind of regularisation yields comparable performance to dropout on MNIST classification. We then demonstrate how the learnt uncertainty in the weights can be used to improve generalisation in non-linear regression problems, and how this weight uncertainty can be used to drive the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning.  Efficient exploration remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). Common dithering strategies for exploration, such as '-greedy, do not carry out temporally-extended (or deep) exploration; this can lead to exponentially larger data requirements. However, most algorithms for statistically efficient RL are not computationally tractable in complex environments. Randomized value functions offer a promising approach to efficient exploration with generalization, but existing algorithms are not compatible with nonlinearly parameterized value functions. As a first step towards addressing such contexts we develop bootstrapped DQN. We demonstrate that bootstrapped DQN can combine deep exploration with deep neural networks for exponentially faster learning than any dithering strategy. In the Arcade Learning Environment bootstrapped DQN substantially improves learning speed and cumulative performance across most games. Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifications to the training procedure and are computationally expensive compared to standard (non-Bayesian) NNs. We propose an alternative to Bayesian NNs that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, requires very little hyperparameter tuning, and yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates. Through a series of experiments on classification and regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates which are as good or better than approximate Bayesian NNs. To assess robustness to dataset shift, we evaluate the predictive uncertainty on test examples from known and unknown distributions, and show that our method is able to express higher uncertainty on out-of-distribution examples. We demonstrate the scalability of our method by evaluating predictive uncertainty estimates on ImageNet.