The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24 .
Contact networks are often used in epidemiological studies to describe the patterns of interactions within a population. Often, such networks merely indicate which individuals interact, without giving any indication of the strength or intensity of interactions. Here, we use weighted networks, in which every connection has an associated weight, to explore the influence of heterogeneous contact strengths on the effectiveness of control measures. We show that, by using contact weights to evaluate an individual's influence on an epidemic, individual infection risk can be estimated and targeted interventions such as preventative vaccination can be applied effectively. We use a diary study of social mixing behaviour to indicate the patterns of contact weights displayed by a real population in a range of different contexts, including physical interactions; we use these data to show that considerations of link weight can in some cases lead to improved interventions in the case of infections that spread through close contact interactions. However, we also see that simpler measures, such as an individual's total number of social contacts or even just their number of contacts during a single day, can lead to great improvements on random vaccination. We therefore conclude that, for many infections, enhanced social contact data can be simply used to improve disease control but that it is not necessary to have full social mixing information in order to enhance interventions. Novel aspects of human dynamics and social interactions are investigated by means of mobile phone data. Using extensive phone records resolved in both time and space, we study the mean collective behavior at large scales and focus on the occurrence of anomalous events. We discuss how these spatiotemporal anomalies can be described using standard percolation theory tools. We also investigate patterns of calling activity at the individual level and show that the interevent time of consecutive calls is heavy-tailed. This finding, which has implications for dynamics of spreading phenomena in social networks, agrees with results previously reported on other human activities. The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling - and manipulation - of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization. Linus Bengtsson and colleagues examine the use of mobile phone positioning data to monitor population movements during disasters and outbreaks, finding that reports on population movements can be generated within twelve hours of receiving data.