Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches.
We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate lossthe φ-riskalso minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values. In this paper, a new classifier design methodology, confidence-based classifier design, is proposed to design classifiers with controlled confidence. This methodology is under the guidance of two optimal classification theories, a new classification theory for designing optimal classifiers with controlled error rates and the C.K. Chow's optimal classification theory for designing optimal classifiers with controlled conditional error. The new methodology also takes advantage of the current well-developed classifier's probability preserving and ordering properties. It calibrates the output scores of current classifiers to the conditional error or error rates. Thus, it can either classify input samples or reject them according to the output scores of classifiers. It can achieve some reasonable performance even though it is not an optimal solution. An example is presented to implement the new methodology using support vector machines (SVMs). The empirical cumulative density function method is used to estimate error rates from the output scores of a trained SVM. Furthermore, a new dynamic bin width allocation method is proposed to estimate sample conditional error and this method adapts to the underlying probabilities. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the efficacy of the suggested classifier design methodology. Abstract We present an algorithm for improving the accuracy of algorithms for learning binary concepts. The improvement is achieved by combining a large number of hypotheses, each of which is generated by training the given learning algorithm on a different set of examples. Our algorithm is based on ideas presented by Schapire and represents an improvement over his results, The analysis of our algorithm provides general upper bounds on the resources required for learning in Valiant′s polynomial PAC learning framework, which are the best general upper bounds known today. We show that the number of hypotheses that are combined by our algorithm is the smallest number possible. Other outcomes of our analysis are results regarding the representational power of threshold circuits, the relation between learnability and compression, and a method for parallelizing PAC learning algorithms. We provide extensions of our algorithms to cases in which the concepts are not binary and to the case where the accuracy of the learning algorithm depends on the distribution of the instances.