Temporal point process is an expressive tool for modeling event sequences over time. In this paper, we take a reinforcement learning view whereby the observed sequences are assumed to be generated from a mixture of latent policies. The purpose is to cluster the sequences with different temporal patterns into the underlying policies while learning each of the policy model. The flexibility of our model lies in: i) all the components are networks including the policy network for modeling the intensity function of temporal point process; ii) to handle varying-length event sequences, we resort to inverse reinforcement learning by decomposing the observed sequence into states (RNN hidden embedding of history) and actions (time interval to next event) in order to learn the reward function, thus achieving better performance or increasing efficiency compared to existing methods using rewards over the entire sequence such as log-likelihood or Wasserstein distance. We adopt an expectation-maximization framework with the E-step estimating the cluster labels for each sequence, and the M-step aiming to learn the respective policy. Extensive experiments show the efficacy of our method against state-of-the-arts.
How to cluster event sequences generated via different point processes is an interesting and important problem in statistical machine learning. To solve this problem, we propose and discuss an effective model-based clustering method based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. The proposed model generates the event sequences with different clusters from the Hawkes processes with different parameters, and uses a Dirichlet process as the prior distribution of the clusters. We prove the identifiability of our mixture model and propose an effective variational Bayesian inference algorithm to learn our model. An adaptive inner iteration allocation strategy is designed to accelerate the convergence of our algorithm. Moreover, we investigate the sample complexity and the computational complexity of our learning algorithm in depth. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that the clustering method based on our model can learn structural triggering patterns hidden in asynchronous event sequences robustly and achieve superior performance on clustering purity and consistency compared to existing methods. Objective—To evaluate the pharmacokinetics of a novel commercial formulation of ivermectin after administration to goats. Animals—6 healthy adult goats. Procedure—Ivermectin (200 μg kg) was initially administered IV to each goat, and plasma samples were obtained for 36 days. After a washout period of 3 weeks, each goat received a novel commercial formulation of ivermectin (200 μg kg) by SC injection. Plasma samples were then obtained for 42 days. Drug concentrations were quantified by use of high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Results—Pharmacokinetics of ivermectin after IV administration were best described by a 2-compartment open model; values for main compartmental variables included volume of distribution at a steady state (9.94 L kg), clearance (1.54 L kg d), and area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC; 143 [ng•d] mL). Values for the noncompartmental variables included mean residence time (7.37 days), AUC (153 [ng•d] mL), and clearance (1.43 L kg d). After ...