Social media expose millions of users every day to information campaigns --- some emerging organically from grassroots activity, others sustained by advertising or other coordinated efforts. These campaigns contribute to the shaping of collective opinions. While most information campaigns are benign, some may be deployed for nefarious purposes. It is therefore important to be able to detect whether a meme is being artificially promoted at the very moment it becomes wildly popular. This problem has important social implications and poses numerous technical challenges. As a first step, here we focus on discriminating between trending memes that are either organic or promoted by means of advertisement. The classification is not trivial: ads cause bursts of attention that can be easily mistaken for those of organic trends. We designed a machine learning framework to classify memes that have been labeled as trending on Twitter.After trending, we can rely on a large volume of activity data. Early detection, occurring immediately at trending time, is a more challenging problem due to the minimal volume of activity data that is available prior to trending.Our supervised learning framework exploits hundreds of time-varying features to capture changing network and diffusion patterns, content and sentiment information, timing signals, and user meta-data. We explore different methods for encoding feature time series. Using millions of tweets containing trending hashtags, we achieve 75 AUC score for early detection, increasing to above 95 after trending. We evaluate the robustness of the algorithms by introducing random temporal shifts on the trend time series. Feature selection analysis reveals that content cues provide consistently useful signals; user features are more informative for early detection, while network and timing features are more helpful once more data is available.
  Every second, the thoughts and feelings of millions of people across the world are recorded in the form of 140-character tweets using Twitter. However, despite the enormous potential presented by this remarkable data source, we still do not have an understanding of the Twitter population itself: Who are the Twitter users? How representative of the overall population are they? In this paper, we take the first steps towards answering these questions by analyzing data on a set of Twitter users representing over 1 of the U.S. population. We develop techniques that allow us to compare the Twitter population to the U.S. population along three axes (geography, gender, and race ethnicity), and find that the Twitter population is a highly non-uniform sample of the population. We conduct a detailed investigation of correlations between real-time expressions of individuals made across the United States and a wide range of emotional, geographic, demographic, and health characteristics. We do so by combining (1) a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 80 million words generated in 2011 on the social network service Twitter and (2) annually-surveyed characteristics of all 50 states and close to 400 urban populations. Among many results, we generate taxonomies of states and cities based on their similarities in word use; estimate the happiness levels of states and cities; correlate highly-resolved demographic characteristics with happiness levels; and connect word choice and message length with urban characteristics such as education levels and obesity rates. Our results show how social media may potentially be used to estimate real-time levels and changes in population-scale measures such as obesity rates. Vibrant online communities are in constant flux. As members join and depart, the interactional norms evolve, stimulating further changes to the membership and its social dynamics. Linguistic change --- in the sense of innovation that becomes accepted as the norm --- is essential to this dynamic process: it both facilitates individual expression and fosters the emergence of a collective identity. We propose a framework for tracking linguistic change as it happens and for understanding how specific users react to these evolving norms. By applying this framework to two large online communities we show that users follow a determined two-stage lifecycle with respect to their susceptibility to linguistic change: a linguistically innovative learning phase in which users adopt the language of the community followed by a conservative phase in which users stop changing and the evolving community norms pass them by. Building on this observation, we show how this framework can be used to detect, early in a user's career, how long she will stay active in the community. Thus, this work has practical significance for those who design and maintain online communities. It also yields new theoretical insights into the evolution of linguistic norms and the complex interplay between community-level and individual-level linguistic change. Recommending products to consumers means not only understanding their tastes, but also understanding their level of experience. For example, it would be a mistake to recommend the iconic film Seven Samurai simply because a user enjoys other action movies; rather, we might conclude that they will eventually enjoy it -- once they are ready. The same is true for beers, wines, gourmet foods -- or any products where users have acquired tastes: the best' products may not be the most accessible'. Thus our goal in this paper is to recommend products that a user will enjoy now, while acknowledging that their tastes may have changed over time, and may change again in the future. We model how tastes change due to the very act of consuming more products -- in other words, as users become more experienced. We develop a latent factor recommendation system that explicitly accounts for each user's level of experience. We find that such a model not only leads to better recommendations, but also allows us to study the role of user experience and expertise on a novel dataset of fifteen million beer, wine, food, and movie reviews.