Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.
Active surveillance is a desirable way to prevent the spread of infectious diseases in that it aims to timely discover individual incidences through an active searching for patients. However, in practice active surveillance is difficult to implement especially when monitoring space is large but available resources are limited. Therefore, it is extremely important for public health authorities to know how to distribute their very sparse resources to high-priority regions so as to maximize the outcomes of active surveillance. In this paper, we raise the problem of active surveillance planning and provide an effective method to address it via modeling and mining spatiotemporal patterns of infection risks from heterogeneous data sources. Taking malaria as an example, we perform an empirical study on real-world data to validate our method and provide our new findings. This paper tries to answer two questions. First, how to infer real-time air quality of any arbitrary location given environmental data and historical air quality data from very sparse monitoring locations. Second, if one needs to establish few new monitoring stations to improve the inference quality, how to determine the best locations for such purpose? The problems are challenging since for most of the locations (>99 ) in a city we do not have any air quality data to train a model from. We design a semi-supervised inference model utilizing existing monitoring data together with heterogeneous city dynamics, including meteorology, human mobility, structure of road networks, and point of interests (POIs). We also propose an entropy-minimization model to suggest the best locations to establish new monitoring stations. We evaluate the proposed approach using Beijing air quality data, resulting in clear advantages over a series of state-of-the-art and commonly used methods.