In online advertising, the Internet users may be exposed to a sequence of different ad campaigns, i.e., display ads, search, or referrals from multiple channels, before led up to any final sales conversion and transaction. For both campaigners and publishers, it is fundamentally critical to estimate the contribution from ad campaign touch-points during the customer journey (conversion funnel) and assign the right credit to the right ad exposure accordingly. However, the existing research on the multi-touch attribution problem lacks a principled way of utilizing the users' pre-conversion actions (i.e., clicks), and quite often fails to model the sequential patterns among the touch points from a user's behavior data. To make it worse, the current industry practice is merely employing a set of arbitrary rules as the attribution model, e.g., the popular last-touch model assigns 100 credit to the final touch-point regardless of actual attributions. In this paper, we propose a Dual-attention Recurrent Neural Network (DARNN) for the multi-touch attribution problem. It learns the attribution values through an attention mechanism directly from the conversion estimation objective. To achieve this, we utilize sequence-to-sequence prediction for user clicks, and combine both post-view and post-click attribution patterns together for the final conversion estimation. To quantitatively benchmark attribution models, we also propose a novel yet practical attribution evaluation scheme through the proxy of budget allocation (under the estimated attributions) over ad channels. The experimental results on two real datasets demonstrate the significant performance gains of our attribution model against the state of the art.
Multi-touch attribution, which allows distributing the credit to all related advertisements based on their corresponding contributions, has recently become an important research topic in digital advertising. Traditionally, rule-based attribution models have been used in practice. The drawback of such rule-based models lies in the fact that the rules are not derived form the data but only based on simple intuition. With the ever enhanced capability to tracking advertisement and users' interaction with the advertisement, data-driven multi-touch attribution models, which attempt to infer the contribution from user interaction data, become an important research direction. We here propose a new data-driven attribution model based on survival theory. By adopting a probabilistic framework, one key advantage of the proposed model is that it is able to remove the presentation biases inherit to most of the other attribution models. In addition to model the attribution, the proposed model is also able to predict user's 'conversion' probability. We validate the proposed method with a real-world data set obtained from a operational commercial advertising monitoring company. Experiment results have shown that the proposed method is quite promising in both conversion prediction and attribution.  It is an important problem in computational advertising to study the effects of different advertising channels upon user conversions, as advertisers can use the discoveries to plan or optimize advertising campaigns. In this paper, we propose a novel Probabilistic Multi-Touch Attribution (PMTA) model which takes into account not only which ads have been viewed or clicked by the user but also when each such interaction occurred. Borrowing the techniques from survival analysis, we use the Weibull distribution to describe the observed conversion delay and use the hazard rate of conversion to measure the influence of an ad exposure. It has been shown by extensive experiments on a large real-world dataset that our proposed model is superior to state-of-the-art methods in both conversion prediction and attribution analysis. Furthermore, a surprising research finding obtained from this dataset is that search ads are often not the root cause of final conversions but just the consequence of previously viewed ads.