In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4 in offline experiments and up to 17.5 in an online A B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies.
Many techniques for improving search result quality have been proposed. Typically, these techniques increase average effectiveness by devising advanced ranking features and or by developing sophisticated learning to rank algorithms. However, while these approaches typically improve average performance of search results relative to simple baselines, they often ignore the important issue of robustness. That is, although achieving an average gain overall, the new models often hurt performance on many queries. This limits their application in real-world retrieval scenarios. Given that robustness is an important measure that can negatively impact user satisfaction, we present a unified framework for jointly optimizing effectiveness and robustness. We propose an objective that captures the tradeoff between these two competing measures and demonstrate how we can jointly optimize for these two measures in a principled learning framework. Experiments indicate that ranking models learned this way significantly decreased the worst ranking failures while maintaining strong average effectiveness on par with current state-of-the-art models. With the rapid prevalence of smart mobile devices, the number of mobile Apps available has exploded over the past few years. To facilitate the choice of mobile Apps, existing mobile App recommender systems typically recommend popular mobile Apps to mobile users. However, mobile Apps are highly varied and often poorly understood, particularly for their activities and functions related to privacy and security. Therefore, more and more mobile users are reluctant to adopt mobile Apps due to the risk of privacy invasion and other security concerns. To fill this crucial void, in this paper, we propose to develop a mobile App recommender system with privacy and security awareness. The design goal is to equip the recommender system with the functionality which allows to automatically detect and evaluate the security risk of mobile Apps. Then, the recommender system can provide App recommendations by considering both the Apps' popularity and the users' security preferences. Specifically, a mobile App can lead to security risk because insecure data access permissions have been implemented in this App. Therefore, we first develop the techniques to automatically detect the potential security risk for each mobile App by exploiting the requested permissions. Then, we propose a flexible approach based on modern portfolio theory for recommending Apps by striking a balance between the Apps' popularity and the users' security concerns, and build an App hash tree to efficiently recommend Apps. Finally, we evaluate our approach with extensive experiments on a large-scale data set collected from Google Play. The experimental results clearly validate the effectiveness of our approach. This paper studies result diversification in collaborative filtering. We argue that the diversification level in a recommendation list should be adapted to the target users' individual situations and needs. Different users may have different ranges of interests -- the preference of a highly focused user might include only few topics, whereas that of the user with broad interests may encompass a wide range of topics. Thus, the recommended items should be diversified according to the interest range of the target user. Such an adaptation is also required due to the fact that the uncertainty of the estimated user preference model may vary significantly between users. To reduce the risk of the recommendation, we should take the difference of the uncertainty into account as well. In this paper, we study the adaptive diversification problem theoretically. We start with commonly used latent factor models and reformulate them using the mean-variance analysis from the portfolio theory in text retrieval. The resulting Latent Factor Portfolio (LFP) model captures the user's interest range and the uncertainty of the user preference by employing the variance of the learned user latent factors. It is shown that the correlations between items (and thus the item diversity) can be obtained by using the correlations between latent factors (topical diversity), which in return significantly reduce the computation load. Our mathematical derivation also reveals that diversification is necessary, not only for risk-averse system behavior (non-adpative), but also for the target users' individual situations (adaptive), which are represented by the distribution and the variance of the latent user factors. Our experiments confirm the theoretical insights and show that LFP succeeds in improving latent factor models by adaptively introducing recommendation diversity to fit the individual user's needs.  This paper studies document ranking under uncertainty. It is tackled in a general situation where the relevance predictions of individual documents have uncertainty, and are dependent between each other. Inspired by the Modern Portfolio Theory, an economic theory dealing with investment in financial markets, we argue that ranking under uncertainty is not just about picking individual relevant documents, but about choosing the right combination of relevant documents. This motivates us to quantify a ranked list of documents on the basis of its expected overall relevance (mean) and its variance; the latter serves as a measure of risk, which was rarely studied for document ranking in the past. Through the analysis of the mean and variance, we show that an optimal rank order is the one that balancing the overall relevance (mean) of the ranked list against its risk level (variance). Based on this principle, we then derive an efficient document ranking algorithm. It generalizes the well-known probability ranking principle (PRP) by considering both the uncertainty of relevance predictions and correlations between retrieved documents. Moreover, the benefit of diversification is mathematically quantified; we show that diversifying documents is an effective way to reduce the risk of document ranking. Experimental results in text retrieval confirm performance.