In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4 in offline experiments and up to 17.5 in an online A B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies.
Online advertising allows advertisers to only bid and pay for measurable user responses, such as clicks on ads. As a consequence, click prediction systems are central to most online advertising systems. With over 750 million daily active users and over 1 million active advertisers, predicting clicks on Facebook ads is a challenging machine learning task. In this paper we introduce a model which combines decision trees with logistic regression, outperforming either of these methods on its own by over 3 , an improvement with significant impact to the overall system performance. We then explore how a number of fundamental parameters impact the final prediction performance of our system. Not surprisingly, the most important thing is to have the right features: those capturing historical information about the user or ad dominate other types of features. Once we have the right features and the right model (decisions trees plus logistic regression), other factors play small roles (though even small improvements are important at scale). Picking the optimal handling for data freshness, learning rate schema and data sampling improve the model slightly, though much less than adding a high-value feature, or picking the right model to begin with. Predicting ad click-through rates (CTR) is a massive-scale learning problem that is central to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry. We present a selection of case studies and topics drawn from recent experiments in the setting of a deployed CTR prediction system. These include improvements in the context of traditional supervised learning based on an FTRL-Proximal online learning algorithm (which has excellent sparsity and convergence properties) and the use of per-coordinate learning rates. We also explore some of the challenges that arise in a real-world system that may appear at first to be outside the domain of traditional machine learning research. These include useful tricks for memory savings, methods for assessing and visualizing performance, practical methods for providing confidence estimates for predicted probabilities, calibration methods, and methods for automated management of features. Finally, we also detail several directions that did not turn out to be beneficial for us, despite promising results elsewhere in the literature. The goal of this paper is to highlight the close relationship between theoretical advances and practical engineering in this industrial setting, and to show the depth of challenges that appear when applying traditional machine learning methods in a complex dynamic system. Summary Folklore has it that a very simple supervised classification rule, based on the typically false assumption that the predictor variables are independent, can be highly effective, and often more effective than sophisticated rules. We examine the evidence for this, both empirical, as observed in real data applications, and theoretical, summarising explanations for why this simple rule might be effective. Resume La tradition veunt qu'une regle tres simple assumant l'independance des variables predictives. une hypothese fausse dans la plupart des cas, peut etre tres efficace, souvent meme plus efficace qu'une methode plus sophistiquee en ce qui concerne l'attribution de classes a un groupe d'objets. A ce sujet, nous examinons les preuves empiriques, et les preuves theoriques, e'est-a-dire les raisons pour lesquelles cette simple regle pourrait faciliter le processus de tri. Search engine advertising has become a significant element of the Web browsing experience. Choosing the right ads for the query and the order in which they are displayed greatly affects the probability that a user will see and click on each ad. This ranking has a strong impact on the revenue the search engine receives from the ads. Further, showing the user an ad that they prefer to click on improves user satisfaction. For these reasons, it is important to be able to accurately estimate the click-through rate of ads in the system. For ads that have been displayed repeatedly, this is empirically measurable, but for new ads, other means must be used. We show that we can use features of ads, terms, and advertisers to learn a model that accurately predicts the click-though rate for new ads. We also show that using our model improves the convergence and performance of an advertising system. As a result, our model increases both revenue and user satisfaction. In targeted display advertising, the goal is to identify the best opportunities to display a banner ad to an online user who is most likely to take a desired action such as purchasing a product or signing up for a newsletter. Finding the best ad impression, i.e., the opportunity to show an ad to a user, requires the ability to estimate the probability that the user who sees the ad on his or her browser will take an action, i.e., the user will convert. However, conversion probability estimation is a challenging task since there is extreme data sparsity across different data dimensions and the conversion event occurs rarely. In this paper, we present our approach to conversion rate estimation which relies on utilizing past performance observations along user, publisher and advertiser data hierarchies. More specifically, we model the conversion event at different select hierarchical levels with separate binomial distributions and estimate the distribution parameters individually. Then we demonstrate how we can combine these individual estimators using logistic regression to accurately identify conversion events. In our presentation, we also discuss main practical considerations such as data imbalance, missing data, and output probability calibration, which render this estimation problem more difficult but yet need solving for a real-world implementation of the approach. We provide results from real advertising campaigns to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. We describe a new Bayesian click-through rate (CTR) prediction algorithm used for Sponsored Search in Microsoft's Bing search engine. The algorithm is based on a probit regression model that maps discrete or real-valued input features to probabilities. It maintains Gaussian beliefs over weights of the model and performs Gaussian online updates derived from approximate message passing. Scalability of the algorithm is ensured through a principled weight pruning procedure and an approximate parallel implementation. We discuss the challenges arising from evaluating and tuning the predictor as part of the complex system of sponsored search where the predictions made by the algorithm decide about future training sample composition. Finally, we show experimental results from the production system and compare to a calibrated Naive Bayes algorithm.