Mixability is a property of a loss which characterizes when fast convergence is possible in the game of prediction with expert advice. We show that a key property of mixability generalizes, and the exp and log operations present in the usual theory are not as special as one might have thought. In doing this we introduce a more general notion of @math -mixability where @math is a general entropy ( , any convex function on probabilities). We show how a property shared by the convex dual of any such entropy yields a natural algorithm (the minimizer of a regret bound) which, analogous to the classical aggregating algorithm, is guaranteed a constant regret when used with @math -mixable losses. We characterize precisely which @math have @math -mixable losses and put forward a number of conjectures about the optimality and relationships between different choices of entropy.
We consider two algorithm for on-line prediction based on a linear model. The algorithms are the well-known Gradient Descent (GD) algorithm and a new algorithm, which we call EG(+ -). They both maintain a weight vector using simple updates. For the GD algorithm, the update is based on subtracting the gradient of the squared error made on a prediction. The EG(+ -) algorithm uses the components of the gradient in the exponents of factors that are used in updating the weight vector multiplicatively. We present worst-case loss bounds for EG(+ -) and compare them to previously known bounds for the GD algorithm. The bounds suggest that the losses of the algorithms are in general incomparable, but EG(+ -) has a much smaller loss if only a few components of the input are relevant for the predictions. We have performed experiments, which show that our worst-case upper bounds are quite tight already on simple artificial data. The mirror descent algorithm (MDA) was introduced by Nemirovsky and Yudin for solving convex optimization problems. This method exhibits an efficiency estimate that is mildly dependent in the decision variables dimension, and thus suitable for solving very large scale optimization problems. We present a new derivation and analysis of this algorithm. We show that the MDA can be viewed as a nonlinear projected-subgradient type method, derived from using a general distance-like function instead of the usual Euclidean squared distance. Within this interpretation, we derive in a simple way convergence and efficiency estimates. We then propose an Entropic mirror descent algorithm for convex minimization over the unit simplex, with a global efficiency estimate proven to be mildly dependent in the dimension of the problem.