Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches.
Data mining has been applied to CRM (Customer Relationship Management) in many industries with a limited success. Most data mining tools can only discover customer models or profiles (such as customers who are likely attritors and customers who are loyal), but not actions that would improve customer relationship (such as changing attritors to loyal customers). We describe a novel algorithm that suggests actions to change customers from an undesired status (such as attritors) to a desired one (such as loyal). Our algorithm takes into account the cost of actions, and further it attempts to maximize the expected net profit. To our best knowledge, no data mining algorithms or tools today can accomplish this important task in CRM. The algorithm is implemented, with many advanced features, in a specialized and highly effective data mining software called Proactive Solution. Most data mining algorithms and tools stop at discovered customer models, producing distribution information on customer profiles. Such techniques, when applied to industrial problems such as customer relationship management (CRM), are useful in pointing out customers who are likely attritors and customers who are loyal, but they require human experts to postprocess the discovered knowledge manually. Most of the postprocessing techniques have been limited to producing visualization results and interestingness ranking, but they do not directly suggest actions that would lead to an increase in the objective function such as profit. In this paper, we present novel algorithms that suggest actions to change customers from an undesired status (such as attritors) to a desired one (such as loyal) while maximizing an objective function: the expected net profit. These algorithms can discover cost-effective actions to transform customers from undesirable classes to desirable ones. The approach we take integrates data mining and decision making tightly by formulating the decision making problems directly on top of the data mining results in a postprocessing step. To improve the effectiveness of the approach, we also present an ensemble of decision trees which is shown to be more robust when the training data changes. Empirical tests are conducted on both a realistic insurance application domain and UCI benchmark data