We use machine learning for designing a medium frequency trading strategy for a portfolio of 5 year and 10 year US Treasury note futures. We formulate this as a classification problem where we predict the weekly direction of movement of the portfolio using features extracted from a deep belief network trained on technical indicators of the portfolio constituents. The experimentation shows that the resulting pipeline is effective in making a profitable trade.
Support vector machine (SVM) is a very specific type of learning algorithms characterized by the capacity control of the decision function, the use of the kernel functions and the sparsity of the solution. In this paper, we investigate the predictability of financial movement direction with SVM by forecasting the weekly movement direction of NIKKEI 225 index. To evaluate the forecasting ability of SVM, we compare its performance with those of Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Elman Backpropagation Neural Networks. The experiment results show that SVM outperforms the other classification methods. Further, we propose a combining model by integrating SVM with the other classification methods. The combining model performs best among all the forecasting methods. This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, support vector machine (SVM), in financial time series forecasting. The objective of this paper is to examine the feasibility of SVM in financial time series forecasting by comparing it with a multi-layer back-propagation (BP) neural network. Five real futures contracts that are collated from the Chicago Mercantile Market are used as the data sets. The experiment shows that SVM outperforms the BP neural network based on the criteria of normalized mean square error (NMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), directional symmetry (DS) and weighted directional symmetry (WDS). Since there is no structured way to choose the free parameters of SVMs, the variability in performance with respect to the free parameters is investigated in this study. Analysis of the experimental results proved that it is advantageous to apply SVMs to forecast financial time series. From the Publisher: When applied to the world of finance, neural networks are automated trading systems, based on mapping inputs and outputs for forecasting probable future values. In Neural Networks for Financial Forecasting - the first book to focus on the role of neural networks specifically in price forecasting - traders are provided with a solid foundation that explains how neural nets work, what they can accomplish, and how to construct, use, and apply them for maximum profit. It is written by an acknowledged authority who is, himself, the developer of several successful networks. Neural Networks for Financial Forecasting enables you to develop a usable, state-of-the-art network from scratch all the way through completion of training. There are spreadsheets and graphs throughout to illustrate key points, and an appendix of valuable information, including neural network software suppliers and related publications. Abstract Artificial neural networks are universal and highly flexible function approximators first used in the fields of cognitive science and engineering. In recent years, neural network applications in finance for such tasks as pattern recognition, classification, and time series forecasting have dramatically increased. However, the large number of parameters that must be selected to develop a neural network forecasting model have meant that the design process still involves much trial and error. The objective of this paper is to provide a practical introductory guide in the design of a neural network for forecasting economic time series data. An eight-step procedure to design a neural network forecasting model is explained including a discussion of tradeoffs in parameter selection, some common pitfalls, and points of disagreement among practitioners. From the Publisher: Neural networks are revolutionizing virtually every aspect of financial and investment decision making. Financial firms worldwide are employing neural networks to tackle difficult tasks involving intuitive judgement or requiring the detection of data patterns which elude conventional analytic techniques. Many observers believe neural networks will eventually outperform even the best traders and investors. Neural networks are already being used to trade the securities markets, to forecast the economy and to analyze credit risk. Indeed, apart from the U.S. Department of Defense, the financial services industry has invested more money in neural network research than any other industry or government body. Unlike other types of artificial intelligence, neural networks mimic to some extent the processing characteristics of the human brain. As a result, neural networks can draw conclusions from incomplete data, recognize patterns as they unfold in real time and forecast the future. They can even learn from past mistakes! In Neural Networks in Finance and Investing, Robert Trippi and Efraim Turban have assembled a stellar collection of articles by experts in industry and academia on the applications of neural networks in this important arena. They discuss neural network successes and failures, as well as identify the vast unrealized potential of neural networks in numerous specialized areas of financial decision making. Topics include neural network fundamentals and overview, analysis of financial condition, business failure prediction, debt risk assessment, security market applications, and neural network approaches to financial forecasting. Nowhere else will the finance professional find such an exciting and relevant in-depth examination of neural networks. Individual chapters discuss how to use neural networks to forecast the stock market, to trade commodities, to assess bond and mortgage risk, to predict bankruptcy and to implement investment strategies. Taken toge Abstract Support vector machines (SVMs) are promising methods for the prediction of financial time-series because they use a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. This study applies SVM to predicting the stock price index. In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting by comparing it with back-propagation neural networks and case-based reasoning. The experimental results show that SVM provides a promising alternative to stock market prediction. Much recent research has been devoted to learning algorithms for deep architectures such as Deep Belief Networks and stacks of auto-encoder variants, with impressive results obtained in several areas, mostly on vision and language data sets. The best results obtained on supervised learning tasks involve an unsupervised learning component, usually in an unsupervised pre-training phase. Even though these new algorithms have enabled training deep models, many questions remain as to the nature of this difficult learning problem. The main question investigated here is the following: how does unsupervised pre-training work? Answering this questions is important if learning in deep architectures is to be further improved. We propose several explanatory hypotheses and test them through extensive simulations. We empirically show the influence of pre-training with respect to architecture depth, model capacity, and number of training examples. The experiments confirm and clarify the advantage of unsupervised pre-training. The results suggest that unsupervised pre-training guides the learning towards basins of attraction of minima that support better generalization from the training data set; the evidence from these results supports a regularization explanation for the effect of pre-training.