Significant efforts have gone into the development of statistical models for analyzing data in the form of networks, such as social networks. Most existing work has focused on modeling static networks, which represent either a single time snapshot or an aggregate view over time. There has been recent interest in statistical modeling of dynamic networks, which are observed at multiple points in time and offer a richer representation of many complex phenomena. In this paper, we present a state-space model for dynamic networks that extends the well-known stochastic blockmodel for static networks to the dynamic setting. We fit the model in a near-optimal manner using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with a local search. We demonstrate that the EKF-based algorithm performs competitively with a state-of-the-art algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling but is significantly less computationally demanding.
A plausible representation of relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as a living cell or a social community is a stochastic network which is topologically rewiring and semantically evolving over time. While there is a rich literature on modeling static or temporally invariant networks, much less has been done toward modeling the dynamic processes underlying rewiring networks, and on recovering such networks when they are not observable. We present a class of hidden temporal exponential random graph models (htERGMs) to study the yet unexplored topic of modeling and recovering temporally rewiring networks from time series of node attributes such as activities of social actors or expression levels of genes. We show that one can reliably infer the latent time-specific topologies of the evolving networks from the observation. We report empirical results on both synthetic data and a Drosophila lifecycle gene expression data set, in comparison with a static counterpart of htERGM. We consider dynamic co-occurrence data, such as author-word links in papers published in successive years of the same conference. For static co-occurrence data, researchers often seek an embedding of the entities (authors and words) into a lowdimensional Euclidean space. We generalize a recent static co-occurrence model, the CODE model of (2004), to the dynamic setting: we seek coordinates for each entity at each time step. The coordinates can change with time to explain new observations, but since large changes are improbable, we can exploit data at previous and subsequent steps to find a better explanation for current observations. To make inference tractable, we show how to approximate our observation model with a Gaussian distribution, allowing the use of a Kalman filter for tractable inference. The result is the first algorithm for dynamic embedding of co-occurrence data which provides distributional information for its coordinate estimates. We demonstrate our model both on synthetic data and on author-word data from the NIPS corpus, showing that it produces intuitively reasonable embeddings. We also provide evidence for the usefulness of our model by its performance on an authorprediction task. This paper explores two aspects of social network modeling. First, we generalize a successful static model of relationships into a dynamic model that accounts for friendships drifting over time. Second, we show how to make it tractable to learn such models from data, even as the number of entities n gets large. The generalized model associates each entity with a point in p-dimensional Euclidean latent space. The points can move as time progresses but large moves in latent space are improbable. Observed links between entities are more likely if the entities are close in latent space. We show how to make such a model tractable (sub-quadratic in the number of entities) by the use of appropriate kernel functions for similarity in latent space; the use of low dimensional KD-trees; a new efficient dynamic adaptation of multidimensional scaling for a first pass of approximate projection of entities into latent space; and an efficient conjugate gradient update rule for non-linear local optimization in which amortized time per entity during an update is O(log n). We use both synthetic and real-world data on up to 11,000 entities which indicate near-linear scaling in computation time and improved performance over four alternative approaches. We also illustrate the system operating on twelve years of NIPS co-authorship data. Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active "network community" and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online "networking communities" such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.