We consider the problem of efficiently constructing cheap and novel round trip flight itineraries by combining legs from different airlines. We analyse the factors that contribute towards the price of such itineraries and find that many result from the combination of just 30 of airlines and that the closer the departure of such itineraries is to the user's search date the more likely they are to be cheaper than the tickets from one airline. We use these insights to formulate the problem as a trade-off between the recall of cheap itinerary constructions and the costs associated with building them. We propose a supervised learning solution with location embeddings which achieves an AUC=80.48, a substantial improvement over simpler baselines. We discuss various practical considerations for dealing with the staleness and the stability of the model and present the design of the machine learning pipeline. Finally, we present an analysis of the model's performance in production and its impact on Skyscanner's users.
Online social networks being extended to geographical space has resulted in large amount of user check-in data. Understanding check-ins can help to build appealing applications, such as location recommendation. In this paper, we propose DeepCity, a feature learning framework based on deep learning, to profile users and locations, with respect to user demographic and location category prediction. Both of the predictions are essential for social network companies to increase user engagement. The key contribution of DeepCity is the proposal of task-specific random walk which uses the location and user properties to guide the feature learning to be specific to each prediction task. Experiments conducted on 42M check-ins in three cities collected from Instagram have shown that DeepCity achieves a superior performance and outperforms other baseline models significantly. Travel providers such as airlines and on-line travel agents are becoming more and more interested in understanding how passengers choose among alternative itineraries when searching for flights. This knowledge helps them better display and adapt their offer, taking into account market conditions and customer needs. Some common applications are not only filtering and sorting alternatives, but also changing certain attributes in real-time (e.g., changing the price). In this paper, we concentrate with the problem of modeling air passenger choices of flight itineraries. This problem has historically been tackled using classical Discrete Choice Modelling techniques. Traditional statistical approaches, in particular the Multinomial Logit model (MNL), is widely used in industrial applications due to its simplicity and general good performance. However, MNL models present several shortcomings and assumptions that might not hold in real applications. To overcome these difficulties, we present a new choice model based on Pointer Networks. Given an input sequence, this type of deep neural architecture combines Recurrent Neural Networks with the Attention Mechanism to learn the conditional probability of an output whose values correspond to positions in an input sequence. Therefore, given a sequence of different alternatives presented to a customer, the model can learn to point to the one most likely to be chosen by the customer. The proposed method was evaluated on a real dataset that combines on-line user search logs and airline flight bookings. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the traditional MNL model on several metrics. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have demonstrated superior ability to extract high level embedding vectors from low level features. Despite the success, the serving time is still the bottleneck due to expensive run-time computation of multiple layers of dense matrices. GPGPU, FPGA, or ASIC-based serving systems require additional hardware that are not in the mainstream design of most commercial applications. In contrast, tree or forest-based models are widely adopted because of low serving cost, but heavily depend on carefully engineered features. This work proposes a Deep Embedding Forest model that benefits from the best of both worlds. The model consists of a number of embedding layers and a forest tree layer. The former maps high dimensional (hundreds of thousands to millions) and heterogeneous low-level features to the lower dimensional (thousands) vectors, and the latter ensures fast serving. Built on top of a representative DNN model called Deep Crossing, and two forest tree-based models including XGBoost and LightGBM, a two-step Deep Embedding Forest algorithm is demonstrated to achieve on-par or slightly better performance as compared with the DNN counterpart, with only a fraction of serving time on conventional hardware. After comparing with a joint optimization algorithm called partial fuzzification, also proposed in this paper, it is concluded that the two-step Deep Embedding Forest has achieved near optimal performance. Experiments based on large scale data sets (up to 1 billion samples) from a major sponsored search engine proves the efficacy of the proposed model.   Point-of-interest (POI) recommendation is an important application for location-based social networks (LBSNs), which learns the user preference and mobility pattern from check-in sequences to recommend POIs. Previous studies show that modeling the sequential pattern of user check-ins is necessary for POI recommendation. Markov chain model, recurrent neural network, and the word2vec framework are used to model check-in sequences in previous work. However, all previous sequential models ignore the fact that check-in sequences on different days naturally exhibit the various temporal characteristics, for instance, "work" on weekday and "entertainment" on weekend. In this paper, we take this challenge and propose a Geo-Temporal sequential embedding rank (Geo-Teaser) model for POI recommendation. Inspired by the success of the word2vec framework to model the sequential contexts, we propose a temporal POI embedding model to learn POI representations under some particular temporal state. The temporal POI embedding model captures the contextual check-in information in sequences and the various temporal characteristics on different days as well. Furthermore, We propose a new way to incorporate the geographical influence into the pairwise preference ranking method through discriminating the unvisited POIs according to geographical information. Then we develop a geographically hierarchical pairwise preference ranking model. Finally, we propose a unified framework to recommend POIs combining these two models. To verify the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conduct experiments on two real-life datasets. Experimental results show that the Geo-Teaser model outperforms state-of-the-art models. Compared with the best baseline competitor, the Geo-Teaser model improves at least 20 on both datasets for all metrics.  The application of neural embedding algorithms (based on architectures like skip-grams) to large knowledge bases like Wikipedia and the Google News Corpus has tremendously benefited multiple communities in applications as diverse as sentiment analysis, named entity recognition and text classification. In this paper, we present a similar resource for geospatial applications. We systematically construct a weighted network that spans all populated places in Geonames. Using a network embedding algorithm that was recently found to achieve excellent results and is based on the skip-gram model, we embed each populated place into a 100-dimensional vector space, in a similar vein as the GloVe embeddings released for Wikipedia. We demonstrate potential applications of this dataset resource, which we release under a public license. We present DeepWalk, a novel approach for learning latent representations of vertices in a network. These latent representations encode social relations in a continuous vector space, which is easily exploited by statistical models. DeepWalk generalizes recent advancements in language modeling and unsupervised feature learning (or deep learning) from sequences of words to graphs. DeepWalk uses local information obtained from truncated random walks to learn latent representations by treating walks as the equivalent of sentences. We demonstrate DeepWalk's latent representations on several multi-label network classification tasks for social networks such as BlogCatalog, Flickr, and YouTube. Our results show that DeepWalk outperforms challenging baselines which are allowed a global view of the network, especially in the presence of missing information. DeepWalk's representations can provide F1 scores up to 10 higher than competing methods when labeled data is sparse. In some experiments, DeepWalk's representations are able to outperform all baseline methods while using 60 less training data. DeepWalk is also scalable. It is an online learning algorithm which builds useful incremental results, and is trivially parallelizable. These qualities make it suitable for a broad class of real world applications such as network classification, and anomaly detection. The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment. As product prices become increasingly available on the World Wide Web, consumers attempt to understand how corporations vary these prices over time. However, corporations change prices based on proprietary algorithms and hidden variables (e.g., the number of unsold seats on a flight). Is it possible to develop data mining techniques that will enable consumers to predict price changes under these conditions?This paper reports on a pilot study in the domain of airline ticket prices where we recorded over 12,000 price observations over a 41 day period. When trained on this data, Hamlet --- our multi-strategy data mining algorithm --- generated a predictive model that saved 341 simulated passengers @math 320,572 in our simulation, thus H AMLET 's savings were 61.8 of optimal. The algorithm's savings of $198,074 represents an average savings of 23.8 for the 341 passengers for whom savings are possible. Overall, HAMLET saved 4.4 of the ticket price averaged over the entire set of 4,488 simulated passengers. Our pilot study suggests that mining of price data available over the web has the potential to save consumers substantial sums of money per annum. We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features. Understanding, representing, and reasoning about Points Of Interest (POI) types such as Auto Repair, Body Shop, Gas Stations, or Planetarium, is a key aspect of geographic information retrieval, recommender systems, geographic knowledge graphs, as well as studying urban spaces in general, e.g., for extracting functional or vague cognitive regions from user-generated content. One prerequisite to these tasks is the ability to capture the similarity and relatedness between POI types. Intuitively, a spatial search that returns body shops or even gas stations in the absence of auto repair places is still likely to satisfy some user needs while returning planetariums will not. Place hierarchies are frequently used for query expansion, but most of the existing hierarchies are relatively shallow and structured from a single perspective, thereby putting POI types that may be closely related regarding some characteristics far apart from another. This leads to the question of how to learn POI type representations from data. Models such as Word2Vec that produces word embeddings from linguistic contexts are a novel and promising approach as they come with an intuitive notion of similarity. However, the structure of geographic space, e.g., the interactions between POI types, differs substantially from linguistics. In this work, we present a novel method to augment the spatial contexts of POI types using a distance-binned, information-theoretic approach to generate embeddings. We demonstrate that our work outperforms Word2Vec and other models using three different evaluation tasks and strongly correlates with human assessments of POI type similarity. We published the resulting embeddings for 570 place types as well as a collection of human similarity assessments online for others to use. Conventional location recommendation models rely on users' visit history, geographical influence, temporal influence, etc., to infer users' preferences for locations. However, systematically modeling a location's context (i.e., the set of locations visited before or after this location) is relatively unexplored. In this paper, by leveraging the Skipgram model, we learn the latent representation for a location to capture the influence of its context. A pair-wise ranking loss that considers the confidences of observed user preferences for locations is then proposed to learn users' latent representations for personalized top-N location recommendations. Moreover, we also extend our model by taking into account temporal influence. Stochastic gradient descent based optimization algorithms are developed to fit the models. We conduct comprehensive experiments over four real datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art location recommendation methods.