Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeling. However, these methods have shortcomings that make them unsuitable for rapid detection of locally emerging events on massive text streams. We describe Spatially Compact Semantic Scan (SCSS) that has been developed specifically to overcome the shortcomings of current methods in detecting new spatially compact events in text streams. SCSS employs alternating optimization between using semantic scan to estimate contrastive foreground topics in documents, and discovering spatial neighborhoods with high occurrence of documents containing the foreground topics. We evaluate our method on Emergency Department chief complaints dataset (ED dataset) to verify the effectiveness of our method in detecting real-world disease outbreaks from free-text ED chief complaint data.
A family of probabilistic time series models is developed to analyze the time evolution of topics in large document collections. The approach is to use state space models on the natural parameters of the multinomial distributions that represent the topics. Variational approximations based on Kalman filters and nonparametric wavelet regression are developed to carry out approximate posterior inference over the latent topics. In addition to giving quantitative, predictive models of a sequential corpus, dynamic topic models provide a qualitative window into the contents of a large document collection. The models are demonstrated by analyzing the OCR'ed archives of the journal Science from 1880 through 2000.