Internet data has surfaced as a primary source for investigation of different aspects of human behavior. A crucial step in such studies is finding a suitable cohort (i.e., a set of users) that shares a common trait of interest to researchers. However, direct identification of users sharing this trait is often impossible, as the data available to researchers is usually anonymized to preserve user privacy. To facilitate research on specific topics of interest, especially in medicine, we introduce an algorithm for identifying a trait of interest in anonymous users. We illustrate how a small set of labeled examples, together with statistical information about the entire population, can be aggregated to obtain labels on unseen examples. We validate our approach using labeled data from the political domain. We provide two applications of the proposed algorithm to the medical domain. In the first, we demonstrate how to identify users whose search patterns indicate they might be suffering from certain types of cancer. This shows, for the first time, that search queries can be used as a screening device for diseases that are currently often discovered too late, because no early screening tests exists. In the second, we detail an algorithm to predict the distribution of diseases given their incidence in a subset of the population at study, making it possible to predict disease spread from partial epidemiological data.
We propose a new problem formulation which is similar to, but more informative than, the binary multiple-instance learning problem. In this setting, we are given groups of instances (described by feature vectors) along with estimates of the fraction of positively-labeled instances per group. The task is to learn an instance level classifier from this information. That is, we are trying to estimate the unknown binary labels of individuals from knowledge of group statistics. We propose a principled probabilistic model to solve this problem that accounts for uncertainty in the parameters and in the unknown individual labels. This model is trained with an efficient MCMC algorithm. Its performance is demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world data arising in general object recognition. Consider the following problem: given sets of unlabeled observations, each set with known label proportions, predict the labels of another set of observations, possibly with known label proportions. This problem occurs in areas like e-commerce, politics, spam filtering and improper content detection. We present consistent estimators which can reconstruct the correct labels with high probability in a uniform convergence sense. Experiments show that our method works well in practice. In the design of practical web page classification systems one often encounters a situation in which the labeled training set is created by choosing some examples from each class; but, the class proportions in this set are not the same as those in the test distribution to which the classifier will be actually applied. The problem is made worse when the amount of training data is also small. In this paper we explore and adapt binary SVM methods that make use of unlabeled data from the test distribution, viz., Transductive SVMs (TSVMs) and expectation regularization constraint (ER EC) methods to deal with this situation. We empirically show that when the labeled training data is small, TSVM designed using the class ratio tuned by minimizing the loss on the labeled set yields the best performance; its performance is good even when the deviation between the class ratios of the labeled training set and the test set is quite large. When the labeled training data is sufficiently large, an unsupervised Gaussian mixture model can be used to get a very good estimate of the class ratio in the test set; also, when this estimate is used, both TSVM and EC ER give their best possible performance, with TSVM coming out superior. The ideas in the paper can be easily extended to multi-class SVMs and MaxEnt models.