Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).
With the recent progress of spatial information technologies and mobile computing technologies, spatio-temporal databases which store information on moving objects including vehicles and mobile users have gained a lot of research in- terests. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to extract mobility statistics from indexed spatio-temporal datasets for the interactive analysis of huge collections of moving object trajectories. We focus on a mobility statistics value called the Markov transition probability, which is based on a cell-based organization of a target space and the Markov chain model. The pro- posed algorithm efficiently computes the specified Markov transition probabilities with the help of a spatial index R-tree. We reduce the statistics computation task to a kind of constraint satisfaction problem that uses a spatial index, and utilize internal For many people, driving is a routine activity where people drive to the same destinations using the same routes on a regular basis. Many drivers, for example, will drive to and from work along a small set of routes, at about the same time every day of the working week. Similarly, although a person may shop on different days or at different times, they will often visit the same grocery store(s). In this paper, we present a novel approach to predicting driver intent that exploits the predictable nature of everyday driving. Our approach predicts a driver's intended route and destination through the use of a probabilistic model learned from observation of their driving habits. We show that by using a low-cost GPS sensor and a map database, it is possible to build a hidden Markov model (HMM) of the routes and destinations used by the driver. Furthermore, we show that this model can be used to make accurate predictions of the driver's destination and route through on-line observation of their GPS position during the trip. We present a thorough evaluation of our approach using a corpus of almost a month of real, everyday driving. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, achieving approximately 98 accuracy in most cases. Such high performance suggests that the method can be harnessed for improved safety monitoring, route planning taking into account traffic density, and better trip duration prediction A method for predicting pedestrian movement on the basis of a mixed Markov-chain model (MMM) is proposed. MMM takes into account a pedestrian's personality as an unobservable parameter. It also takes into account the effects of the pedestrian's previous status. A promotional experiment in a major shopping mall demonstrated that the highest prediction accuracy of the MMM method is 74.4 . In comparison with methods based on a Markov-chain model (MM) and a hidden-Markov model (HMM) (i.e., prediction rates of about 45 and 2 , respectively), the proposed MMM-based prediction method is substantially more accurate. This pedestrian-movement prediction based on MMM using tracking data will make it possible to provide so-called "adaptive mobile services" with proactive functions.