Predicting personalized sequential behavior is a key task for recommender systems. In order to predict user actions such as the next product to purchase, movie to watch, or place to visit, it is essential to take into account both long-term user preferences and sequential patterns (i.e., short-term dynamics). Matrix Factorization and Markov Chain methods have emerged as two separate but powerful paradigms for modeling the two respectively. Combining these ideas has led to unified methods that accommodate long- and short-term dynamics simultaneously by modeling pairwise user-item and item-item interactions. In spite of the success of such methods for tackling dense data, they are challenged by sparsity issues, which are prevalent in real-world datasets. In recent years, similarity-based methods have been proposed for (sequentially-unaware) item recommendation with promising results on sparse datasets. In this paper, we propose to fuse such methods with Markov Chains to make personalized sequential recommendations. We evaluate our method, Fossil, on a variety of large, real-world datasets. We show quantitatively that Fossil outperforms alternative algorithms, especially on sparse datasets, and qualitatively that it captures personalized dynamics and is able to make meaningful recommendations.
Typical Recommender systems adopt a static view of the recommendation process and treat it as a prediction problem. We argue that it is more appropriate to view the problem of generating recommendations as a sequential decision problem and, consequently, that Markov decision processes (MDP) provide a more appropriate model for Recommender systems. MDPs introduce two benefits: they take into account the long-term effects of each recommendation, and they take into account the expected value of each recommendation. To succeed in practice, an MDP-based Recommender system must employ a strong initial model; and the bulk of this paper is concerned with the generation of such a model. In particular, we suggest the use of an n-gram predictive model for generating the initial MDP. Our n-gram model induces a Markov-chain model of user behavior whose predictive accuracy is greater than that of existing predictive models. We describe our predictive model in detail and evaluate its performance on real data. In addition, we show how the model can be used in an MDP-based Recommender system. We describe an efficient framework for Web personalization based on sequential and non-sequential pattern discovery from usage data. Our experimental results performed on real usage data indicate that more restrictive patterns, such as contiguous sequential patterns (e.g., frequent navigational paths) are more suitable for predictive tasks, such as Web prefetching, (which involve predicting which item is accessed next by a user), while less constrained patterns, such as frequent item sets or general sequential patterns are more effective alternatives in the context of Web personalization and recommender systems. We treat collaborative filtering as a univariate time series problem: given a user's previous votes, predict the next vote. We describe two families of methods for transforming data to encode time order in ways amenable to off-the-shelf classification and density estimation tools. Using a decision-tree learning tool and two real-world data sets, we compare the results of these approaches to the results of collaborative filtering without ordering information. The improvements in both predictive accuracy and in recommendation quality that we realize advocate the use of predictive algorithms exploiting the temporal order of data. Recommender systems are an important component of many websites. Two of the most popular approaches are based on matrix factorization (MF) and Markov chains (MC). MF methods learn the general taste of a user by factorizing the matrix over observed user-item preferences. On the other hand, MC methods model sequential behavior by learning a transition graph over items that is used to predict the next action based on the recent actions of a user. In this paper, we present a method bringing both approaches together. Our method is based on personalized transition graphs over underlying Markov chains. That means for each user an own transition matrix is learned - thus in total the method uses a transition cube. As the observations for estimating the transitions are usually very limited, our method factorizes the transition cube with a pairwise interaction model which is a special case of the Tucker Decomposition. We show that our factorized personalized MC (FPMC) model subsumes both a common Markov chain and the normal matrix factorization model. For learning the model parameters, we introduce an adaption of the Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) framework for sequential basket data. Empirically, we show that our FPMC model outperforms both the common matrix factorization and the unpersonalized MC model both learned with and without factorization.