User intended actions are widely seen in many areas. Forecasting these actions and taking proactive measures to optimize business outcome is a crucial step towards sustaining the steady business growth. In this work, we focus on pre- dicting attrition, which is one of typical user intended actions. Conventional attrition predictive modeling strategies suffer a few inherent drawbacks. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel end-to-end learning scheme to keep track of the evolution of attrition patterns for the predictive modeling. It integrates user activity logs, dynamic and static user profiles based on multi-path learning. It exploits historical user records by establishing a decaying multi-snapshot technique. And finally it employs the precedent user intentions via guiding them to the subsequent learning procedure. As a result, it addresses all disadvantages of conventional methods. We evaluate our methodology on two public data repositories and one private user usage dataset provided by Adobe Creative Cloud. The extensive experiments demonstrate that it can offer the appealing performance in comparison with several existing approaches as rated by different popular metrics. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced interpretation and visualization strategy to effectively characterize the periodicity of user activity logs. It can help to pinpoint important factors that are critical to user attrition and retention and thus suggests actionable improvement targets for business practice. Our work will provide useful insights into the prediction and elucidation of other user intended actions as well.
 This paper addresses the visualisation of image classification models, learnt using deep Convolutional Networks (ConvNets). We consider two visualisation techniques, based on computing the gradient of the class score with respect to the input image. The first one generates an image, which maximises the class score [5], thus visualising the notion of the class, captured by a ConvNet. The second technique computes a class saliency map, specific to a given image and class. We show that such maps can be employed for weakly supervised object segmentation using classification ConvNets. Finally, we establish the connection between the gradient-based ConvNet visualisation methods and deconvolutional networks [13]. Dropout prediction in MOOCs is a well-researched problem where we classify which students are likely to persist or drop out of a course. Most research into creating models which can predict outcomes is based on student engagement data. Why these students might be dropping out has only been studied through retroactive exit surveys. This helps identify an important extension area to dropout prediction- how can we interpret dropout predictions at the student and model level? We demonstrate how existing MOOC dropout prediction pipelines can be made interpretable, all while having predictive performance close to existing techniques. We explore each stage of the pipeline as design components in the context of interpretability. Our end result is a layer which longitudinally interprets both predictions and entire classification models of MOOC dropout to provide researchers with in-depth insights of why a student is likely to dropout. Understanding why machine learning models behave the way they do empowers both system designers and end-users in many ways: in model selection, feature engineering, in order to trust and act upon the predictions, and in more intuitive user interfaces. Thus, interpretability has become a vital concern in machine learning, and work in the area of interpretable models has found renewed interest. In some applications, such models are as accurate as non-interpretable ones, and thus are preferred for their transparency. Even when they are not accurate, they may still be preferred when interpretability is of paramount importance. However, restricting machine learning to interpretable models is often a severe limitation. In this paper we argue for explaining machine learning predictions using model-agnostic approaches. By treating the machine learning models as black-box functions, these approaches provide crucial flexibility in the choice of models, explanations, and representations, improving debugging, comparison, and interfaces for a variety of users and models. We also outline the main challenges for such methods, and review a recently-introduced model-agnostic explanation approach (LIME) that addresses these challenges.