Future prediction is a fundamental principle of intelligence that helps plan actions and avoid possible dangers. As the future is uncertain to a large extent, modeling the uncertainty and multimodality of the future states is of great relevance. Existing approaches are rather limited in this regard and mostly yield a single hypothesis of the future or, at the best, strongly constrained mixture components that suffer from instabilities in training and mode collapse. In this work, we present an approach that involves the prediction of several samples of the future with a winner-takes-all loss and iterative grouping of samples to multiple modes. Moreover, we discuss how to evaluate predicted multimodal distributions, including the common real scenario, where only a single sample from the ground-truth distribution is available for evaluation. We show on synthetic and real data that the proposed approach triggers good estimates of multimodal distributions and avoids mode collapse.
Evolution has resulted in highly developed abilities in many natural intelligences to quickly and accurately predict mechanical phenomena. Humans have successfully developed laws of physics to abstract and model such mechanical phenomena. In the context of artificial intelligence, a recent line of work has focused on estimating physical parameters based on sensory data and use them in physical simulators to make long-term predictions. In contrast, we investigate the effectiveness of a single neural network for end-to-end long-term prediction of mechanical phenomena. Based on extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that such networks can outperform alternate approaches having even access to ground-truth physical simulators, especially when some physical parameters are unobserved or not known a-priori. Further, our network outputs a distribution of outcomes to capture the inherent uncertainty in the data. Our approach demonstrates for the first time the possibility of making actionable long-term predictions from sensor data without requiring to explicitly model the underlying physical laws. For mobile robots navigating on sidewalks, it is essential to be able to safely cross street intersections. Most existing approaches rely on the recognition of the traffic light signal to make an informed crossing decision. Although these approaches have been crucial enablers for urban navigation, the capabilities of robots employing such approaches are still limited to navigating only on streets containing signalized intersections. In this paper, we address this challenge and propose a multimodal convolutional neural network framework to predict the safety of a street intersection for crossing. Our architecture consists of two subnetworks; an interaction-aware trajectory estimation stream IA-TCNN, that predicts the future states of all observed traffic participants in the scene, and a traffic light recognition stream AtteNet. Our IA-TCNN utilizes dilated causal convolutions to model the behavior of the observable dynamic agents in the scene without explicitly assigning priorities to the interactions among them. While AtteNet utilizes Squeeze-Excitation blocks to learn a content-aware mechanism for selecting the relevant features from the data, thereby improving the noise robustness. Learned representations from the traffic light recognition stream are fused with the estimated trajectories from the motion prediction stream to learn the crossing decision. Furthermore, we extend our previously introduced Freiburg Street Crossing dataset with sequences captured at different types of intersections, demonstrating complex interactions among the traffic participants. Extensive experimental evaluations on public benchmark datasets and our proposed dataset demonstrate that our network achieves state-of-the-art performance for each of the subtasks, as well as for the crossing safety prediction. Recent algorithmic improvements and hardware breakthroughs resulted in a number of success stories in the field of AI impacting our daily lives. However, despite its ubiquity AI is only just starting to make advances in what may arguably have the largest impact thus far, the nascent field of autonomous driving. In this work we discuss this important topic and address one of crucial aspects of the emerging area, the problem of predicting future state of autonomous vehicle's surrounding necessary for safe and efficient operations. We introduce a deep learning-based approach that takes into account current state of traffic actors and produces rasterized representations of each actor's vicinity. The raster images are then used by deep convolutional models to infer future movement of actors while accounting for inherent uncertainty of the prediction task. Extensive experiments on real-world data strongly suggest benefits of the proposed approach. Moreover, following successful tests the system was deployed to a fleet of autonomous vehicles.