An active area of research is to increase the safety of self-driving vehicles. Although safety cannot be guarenteed completely, the capability of a vehicle to predict the future trajectories of its surrounding vehicles could help ensure this notion of safety to a greater deal. We cast the trajectory forecast problem in a multi-time step forecasting problem and develop a Convolutional Neural Network based approach to learn from trajectory sequences generated from completely raw dataset in real-time. Results show improvement over baselines.
Behavior analysis of vehicles surrounding the egovehicle is an essential component in safe and pleasant autonomous driving. This study develops a framework for activity classification of observed on-road vehicles using 3D trajectory cues and a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. As a case study, we aim to classify maneuvers of surrounding vehicles at four way intersections. LIDAR, GPS, and IMU measurements are used to extract ego-motion compensated surround trajectories from data clips in the KITTI benchmark. The impact of different prediction label space choices, feature space input, noisy missing trajectory data, and LSTM model architectures are analyzed, presenting the strengths and limitations of the proposed approach. In this paper, we propose an efficient vehicle trajectory prediction framework based on recurrent neural network. Basically, the characteristic of the vehicle's trajectory is different from that of regular moving objects since it is affected by various latent factors including road structure, traffic rules, and driver's intention. Previous state of the art approaches use sophisticated vehicle behavior model describing these factors and derive the complex trajectory prediction algorithm, which requires a system designer to conduct intensive model optimization for practical use. Our approach is data-driven and simple to use in that it learns complex behavior of the vehicles from the massive amount of trajectory data through deep neural network model. The proposed trajectory prediction method employs the recurrent neural network called long short-term memory (LSTM) to analyze the temporal behavior and predict the future coordinate of the surrounding vehicles. The proposed scheme feeds the sequence of vehicles' coordinates obtained from sensor measurements to the LSTM and produces the probabilistic information on the future location of the vehicles over occupancy grid map. The experiments conducted using the data collected from highway driving show that the proposed method can produce reasonably good estimate of future trajectory. Predicting driver behavior is a key component for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). In this paper, a novel approach based on Support Vector Machine and Bayesian filtering is proposed for online lane change intention prediction. The approach uses the multiclass probabilistic outputs of the Support Vector Machine as an input to the Bayesian filter, and the output of the Bayesian filter is used for the final prediction of lane changes. A lane tracker integrated in a passenger vehicle is used for real-world data collection for the purpose of training and testing. Data from different drivers on different highways were used to evaluate the robustness of the approach. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to predict driver intention to change lanes on average 1.3 seconds in advance, with a maximum prediction horizon of 3.29 seconds. For safe and reliable autonomous driving systems, prediction of surrounding vehicles' future behavior and potential risks are critical. The state-of-the-art prediction algorithms tend to show limited performance on long-term predictions due to their deterministic nature. In this paper, a probabilistic lateral motion prediction algorithm is proposed based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) approach. The MLP model consists of two parts; target lane and trajectory models. In order to develop an intuitive and accurate prediction algorithm, a lane-based trajectory prediction model is introduced based on the fact that vehicles drive within a lane except for during lane changes. More specifically, a set of three representative trajectories with different levels of lane-change positions are generated for each target lane, and real-world traffic data is categorized by each trajectory for MLP training. These target lane and trajectory models enable the stochastic MLP modeling and training. The proposed MLP model outputs probabilities of how likely a vehicle will follow each trajectory and each lane for a given input of vehicle position history including current position. For training the MLP model, Next Generation Simulation traffic data are used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm detects lane-changes one to one and a half second earlier than existing methods and three seconds before lane crossing with about ninety percentages accuracy. The complexity of situations occurring at intersections is demanding on the cognitive abilities of drivers. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are intended to assist particularly in those situations. However, for adequate system reaction strategies it is essential to develop situation assessment. Especially the driver's intention has to be estimated. So, the criticality can be inferred and efficient intervention strategies can take action. In this paper, we present a prediction framework based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and analyze its performance using a large database of real driving data. Our focus is on the variation of the model parameters and the choice of the dataset for learning. The direction of travel while approaching a 4-way intersection is to be estimated. A solid prediction is accomplished with high prediction rates above 90 and mean prediction times up to 7 seconds before entering the intersection area. With the objective to improve road safety, the automotive industry is moving toward more “intelligent” vehicles. One of the major challenges is to detect dangerous situations and react accordingly in order to avoid or mitigate accidents. This requires predicting the likely evolution of the current traffic situation, and assessing how dangerous that future situation might be. This paper is a survey of existing methods for motion prediction and risk assessment for intelligent vehicles. The proposed classification is based on the semantics used to define motion and risk. We point out the tradeoff between model completeness and real-time constraints, and the fact that the choice of a risk assessment method is influenced by the selected motion model.