Humans routinely confront the following key question which could be viewed as a probabilistic variant of the controllability problem: While faced with an uncertain environment governed by causal structures, how should they practice their autonomy by intervening on driver variables, in order to increase (or decrease) the probability of attaining their desired (or undesired) state for some target variable? In this paper, for the first time, the problem of probabilistic controllability in Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) is studied. More specifically, the aim of this paper is two-fold: (i) to introduce and formalize the problem of probabilistic structural controllability in CBNs, and (ii) to identify a sufficient set of driver variables for the purpose of probabilistic structural controllability of a generic CBN. We also elaborate on the nature of minimality the identified set of driver variables satisfies. In this context, the term "structural" signifies the condition wherein solely the structure of the CBN is known.
The ultimate proof of our understanding of natural or technological systems is reflected in our ability to control them. Although control theory offers mathematical tools for steering engineered and natural systems towards a desired state, a framework to control complex self-organized systems is lacking. Here we develop analytical tools to study the controllability of an arbitrary complex directed network, identifying the set of driver nodes with time-dependent control that can guide the system’s entire dynamics. We apply these tools to several real networks, finding that the number of driver nodes is determined mainly by the network’s degree distribution. We show that sparse inhomogeneous networks, which emerge in many real complex systems, are the most difficult to control, but that dense and homogeneous networks can be controlled using a few driver nodes. Counterintuitively, we find that in both model and real systems the driver nodes tend to avoid the high-degree nodes. Control theory can be used to steer engineered and natural systems towards a desired state, but a framework to control complex self-organized systems is lacking. Can such networks be controlled? Albert-Laszlo Barabasi and colleagues tackle this question and arrive at precise mathematical answers that amount to 'yes, up to a point'. They develop analytical tools to study the controllability of an arbitrary complex directed network using both model and real systems, ranging from regulatory, neural and metabolic pathways in living organisms to food webs, cell-phone movements and social interactions. They identify the minimum set of driver nodes whose time-dependent control can guide the system's entire dynamics ( http: go.nature.com wd9Ek2 ). Surprisingly, these are not usually located at the network hubs. Network controllability has numerous applications in natural and technological systems. Here, develop a theoretical approach and a greedy algorithm to study target control—the ability to efficiently control a preselected subset of nodes—in complex networks. 