The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempting the assessment activity. The developed model is real-time and tracks the participation of a student within a MOOC (via click-stream server logs) and predicts the performance of a student on the next as- sessment within the course offering. We perform a com- prehensive set of experiments on data obtained from three openEdX MOOCs via a Stanford University initiative. Our experimental results show the promise of the proposed ap- proach in comparison to baseline approaches and also helps in identification of key features that are associated with the study habits and learning behaviors of students.
This paper describes an effort to model students' changing knowledge state during skill acquisition. Students in this research are learning to write short programs with the ACT Programming Tutor (APT). APT is constructed around a production rule cognitive model of programming knowledge, called theideal student model. This model allows the tutor to solve exercises along with the student and provide assistance as necessary. As the student works, the tutor also maintains an estimate of the probability that the student has learned each of the rules in the ideal model, in a process calledknowledge tracing. The tutor presents an individualized sequence of exercises to the student based on these probability estimates until the student has ‘mastered’ each rule. The programming tutor, cognitive model and learning and performance assumptions are described. A series of studies is reviewed that examine the empirical validity of knowledge tracing and has led to modifications in the process. Currently the model is quite successful in predicting test performance. Further modifications in the modeling process are discussed that may improve performance levels. Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are an increasingly pervasive newcomer to the virtual landscape of higher-education, delivering a wide variety of topics in science, engineering, and the humanities. However, while technological innovation is enabling unprecedented open access to high quality educational material, these systems generally inherit similar homework, exams, and instructional resources to that of their classroom counterparts and currently lack an underlying model with which to talk about learning. In this paper we will show how existing learner modeling techniques based on Bayesian Knowledge Tracing can be adapted to the inaugural course, 6.002x: circuit design, on the edX MOOC platform. We identify three distinct challenges to modeling MOOC data and provide predictive evaluations of the respective modeling approach to each challenge. The challenges identified are; lack of an explicit knowledge component model, allowance for unpenalized multiple problem attempts, and multiple pathways through the system that allow for learning influences outside of the current assessment. Many models in computer education and assessment take into account difficulty. However, despite the positive results of models that take difficulty in to account, knowledge tracing is still used in its basic form due to its skill level diagnostic abilities that are very useful to teachers. This leads to the research question we address in this work: Can KT be effectively extended to capture item difficulty and improve prediction accuracy? There have been a variety of extensions to KT in recent years. One such extension was Baker's contextual guess and slip model. While this model has shown positive gains over KT in internal validation testing, it has not performed well relative to KT on unseen in-tutor data or post-test data, however, it has proven a valuable model to use alongside other models. The contextual guess and slip model increases the complexity of KT by adding regression steps and feature generation. The added complexity of feature generation across datasets may have hindered the performance of this model. Therefore, one of the aims of our work here is to make the most minimal of modifications to the KT model in order to add item difficulty and keep the modification limited to changing the topology of the model. We analyze datasets from two intelligent tutoring systems with KT and a model we have called KT-IDEM (Item Difficulty Effect Model) and show that substantial performance gains can be achieved with this minor modification that incorporates item difficulty.