With the growth of user-generated content, we observe the constant rise of the number of companies, such as search engines, content aggregators, etc., that operate with tremendous amounts of web content not being the services hosting it. Thus, aiming to locate the most important content and promote it to the users, they face the need of estimating the current and predicting the future content popularity. In this paper, we approach the problem of video popularity prediction not from the side of a video hosting service, as done in all previous studies, but from the side of an operating company, which provides a popular video search service that aggregates content from different video hosting websites. We investigate video popularity prediction based on features from three primary sources available for a typical operating company: first, the content hosting provider may deliver its data via its API, second, the operating company makes use of its own search and browsing logs, third, the company crawls information about embeds of a video and links to a video page from publicly available resources on the Web. We show that video popularity prediction based on the embed and link data coupled with the internal search and browsing data significantly improves video popularity prediction based only on the data provided by the video hosting and can even adequately replace the API data in the cases when it is partly or completely unavailable.
By combining multiple social media datasets, it is possible to gain insight into each dataset that goes beyond what could be obtained with either individually. In this paper we combine user-centric data from Twitter with video-centric data from YouTube to build a rich picture of who watches and shares what on YouTube. We study 87K Twitter users, 5.6 million YouTube videos and 15 million video sharing events from user-, video- and sharing-event-centric perspectives. We show that features of Twitter users correlate with YouTube features and sharing-related features. For example, urban users are quicker to share than rural users. We find a superlinear relationship between initial Twitter shares and the final amounts of views. We discover that Twitter activity metrics play more role in video popularity than mere amount of followers. We also reveal the existence of correlated behavior concerning the time between video creation and sharing within certain timescales, showing the time onset for a coherent response, and the time limit after which collective responses are extremely unlikely. Response times depend on the category of the video, suggesting Twitter video sharing is highly dependent on the video content. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale study combining YouTube and Twitter data, and it reveals novel, detailed insights into who watches (and shares) what on YouTube, and when. Popularity prediction, with both technological and economic importance, has been extensively studied for conventional video sharing sites (VSSes), where the videos are mainly found via searching, browsing, or related links. Recent statistics however suggest that online social network (OSN) users regularly share video contents from VSSes, which has contributed to a significant portion of the accesses; yet the popularity prediction in this new context remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present an initial study on the popularity prediction of videos propagated in OSNs along friendship links. We conduct a large-scale measurement and analysis of viewing patterns of videos shared in one of largest OSNs in China, and examine the performance of typical views-based prediction models. We find that they are generally ineffective, if not totally fail, especially when predicting the early peaks and later bursts of accesses, which are common during video propagations in OSNs. To overcome these limits, we track the propagation process of videos shared in a Facebook-like OSN in China, and analyze the user viewing and sharing behaviors. We accordingly develop a novel propagation-based video popularity prediction solution, namely SoVP. Instead of relying solely on the early views for prediction, SoVP considers both the intrinsic attractiveness of a video and the influence from the underlying propagation structure. The effectiveness of SoVP, particularly for predicting the peaks and bursts, have been validated through our trace-driven experiments. Multimedia streaming service providers such as YouTube often need to design caching strategy based on predicted future media content propagation pattern. It is commonly observed that social network behavior tends to have great correlation with the content propagation pattern. In this paper, we propose an Advanced Independent Cascade Model (AICM) which is an extension of the existing ICM method to predict the future propagation pattern of multimedia (YouTube) content based on scraped social network (Facebook) user profiles in terms of their “talkativeness” and “influential power”. Simulation results suggest that the proposed AICM is reasonable and consistent. The recent popularity of social networking websites have resulted in a greater usage of internet bandwidth for sharing multimedia content through websites such as Facebook and YouTube. Moving large volumes of multi-media data through limited network resources remains a technical challenge to this day. The current state-of-art solution in optimizing cache server utilization depends heavily on efficient caching policies to determine content priority. This paper proposes a Fast Threshold Spread Model (FTSM) to predict the future access pattern of multi-media content based on the social information of its past viewers. The prediction results are compared and evaluated against ground truth statistics of the respective YouTube video. A complexity analysis on the proposed algorithm for large datasets along with the correlation between Facebook social sharing and YouTube global hit count are explored. Video popularity prediction plays a foundational role in many aspects of life, such as recommendation systems and investment consulting. Because of its technological and economic importance, this problem has been extensively studied for years. However, four constraints have limited most related works' usability. First, most feature oriented models are inadequate in the social media environment, because many videos are published with no specific content features, such as a strong cast or a famous script. Second, many studies assume that there is a linear correlation existing between view counts from early and later days, but this is not the case in every scenario. Third, numerous works just take view counts into consideration, but discount associated sentiments. Nevertheless, it is the public opinions that directly drive a video's final success failure. Also, many related approaches rely on a network topology, but such topologies are unavailable in many situations. Here, we propose a Dual Sentimental Hawkes Process (DSHP) to cope with all the problems above. DSHP's innovations are reflected in three ways: (1) it breaks the "Linear Correlation" assumption, and implements Hawkes Process; (2) it reveals deeper factors that affect a video's popularity; and (3) it is topology free. We evaluate DSHP on four types of videos: Movies, TV Episodes, Music Videos, and Online News, and compare its performance against 6 widely used models, including Translation Model, Multiple Linear Regression, KNN Regression, ARMA, Reinforced Poisson Process, and Univariate Hawkes Process. Our model outperforms all of the others, which indicates a promising application prospect. Hundreds of hours of videos are uploaded every minute on YouTube and other video sharing sites: some will be viewed by millions of people and other will go unnoticed by all but the uploader. In this paper we propose to use visual sentiment and content features to predict the popularity of web videos. The proposed approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods on two publicly available datasets.