Social media has emerged to be a popular platform for people to express their viewpoints on political protests like the Arab Spring. Millions of people use social media to communicate and mobilize their viewpoints on protests. Hence, it is a valuable tool for organizing social movements. However, the mechanisms by which protest affects the population is not known, making it difficult to estimate the number of protestors. In this paper, we are inspired by sociological theories of protest participation and propose a framework to predict from the user's past status messages and interactions whether the next post of the user will be a declaration of protest. Drawing concepts from these theories, we model the interplay between the user's status messages and messages interacting with him over time and predict whether the next post of the user will be a declaration of protest. We evaluate the framework using data from the social media platform Twitter on protests during the recent Nigerian elections and demonstrate that it can effectively predict whether the next post of a user is a declaration of protest.
In this manuscript, we study the problem of detecting coordinated free text campaigns in large-scale social media. These campaigns—ranging from coordinated spam messages to promotional and advertising campaigns to political astro-turfing—are growing in significance and reach with the commensurate rise in massive-scale social systems. Specifically, we propose and evaluate a content-driven framework for effectively linking free text posts with common “talking points” and extracting campaigns from large-scale social media. Three of the salient features of the campaign extraction framework are: (i) first, we investigate graph mining techniques for isolating coherent campaigns from large message-based graphs; (ii) second, we conduct a comprehensive comparative study of text-based message correlation in message and user levels; and (iii) finally, we analyze temporal behaviors of various campaign types. Through an experimental study over millions of Twitter messages we identify five major types of campaigns—namely Spam, Promotion, Template, News, and Celebrity campaigns—and we show how these campaigns may be extracted with high precision and recall. The Twitter Revolutions of 2009 reinvigorated the question of whether new social media have any real effect on contentious politics. In this article, the authors argue that evaluating the relation between transforming communication technologies and collective action demands recognizing how such technologies infuse specific protest ecologies. This includes looking beyond informational functions to the role of social media as organizing mechanisms and recognizing that traces of these media may reflect larger organizational schemes. Three points become salient in the case of Twitter against this background: (a) Twitter streams represent crosscutting networking mechanisms in a protest ecology, (b) they embed and are embedded in various kinds of gatekeeping processes, and (c) they reflect changing dynamics in the ecology over time. The authors illustrate their argument with reference to two hashtags used in the protests around the 2009 United Nations Climate Summit in Copenhagen. Many people share their activities with others through online communities. These shared activities have an impact on other users' activities. For example, users are likely to become interested in items that are adopted (e.g. liked, bought and shared) by their friends. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for discovering latent influence from sequences of item adoption events. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is used for modeling a sequence, in which adoption by a user triggers the subsequent adoption of the same item by other users. For modeling adoption of multiple items, we employ multiple inhomogeneous Poisson processes, which share parameters, such as influence for each user and relations between users. The proposed model can be used for finding influential users, discovering relations between users and predicting item popularity in the future. We present an efficient Bayesian inference procedure of the proposed model based on the stochastic EM algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by using real data sets in a social bookmark sharing service.  Social media is increasingly being used to access and disseminate information on sociopolitical issues like gun rights and general elections. The popularity and openness of social media makes it conducive for some individuals, known as advocates, who use social media to push their agendas on these issues strategically. Identifying these advocates will caution social media users before reading their information and also enable campaign managers to identify advocates for their digital political campaigns. A significant challenge in identifying advocates is that they employ nuanced strategies to shape user opinion and increase the spread of their messages, making it difficult to distinguish them from random users posting on the campaign. In this paper, we draw from social movement theories and design a quantitative framework to study the nuanced message strategies, propagation strategies, and community structure adopted by advocates for political campaigns in social media. Based on observations of their social media activities manifesting from these strategies, we investigate how to model these strategies for identifying them. We evaluate the framework using two datasets from Twitter, and our experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in identifying advocates for political campaigns with ramifications of this work directed towards assisting users as they navigate through social media spaces.  In networks, contagions such as information, purchasing behaviors, and diseases, spread and diffuse from node to node over the edges of the network. Moreover, in real-world scenarios multiple contagions spread through the network simultaneously. These contagions not only propagate at the same time but they also interact and compete with each other as they spread over the network. While traditional empirical studies and models of diffusion consider individual contagions as independent and thus spreading in isolation, we study how different contagions interact with each other as they spread through the network. We develop a statistical model that allows for competition as well as cooperation of different contagions in information diffusion. Competing contagions decrease each other's probability of spreading, while cooperating contagions help each other in being adopted throughout the network. We evaluate our model on 18,000 contagions simultaneously spreading through the Twitter network. Our model learns how different contagions interact with each other and then uses these interactions to more accurately predict the diffusion of a contagion through the network. Moreover, the model also provides a compelling hypothesis for the principles that govern content interaction in information diffusion. Most importantly, we find very strong effects of interactions between contagions. Interactions cause a relative change in the spreading probability of a contagion by em 71 on the average. Networks provide a skeleton for the spread of contagions, like, information, ideas, behaviors and diseases. Many times networks over which contagions diffuse are unobserved and need to be inferred. Here we apply survival theory to develop general additive and multiplicative risk models under which the network inference problems can be solved efficiently by exploiting their convexity. Our additive risk model generalizes several existing network inference models. We show all these models are particular cases of our more general model. Our multiplicative model allows for modeling scenarios in which a node can either increase or decrease the risk of activation of another node, in contrast with previous approaches, which consider only positive risk increments. We evaluate the performance of our network inference algorithms on large synthetic and real cascade datasets, and show that our models are able to predict the length and duration of cascades in real data. We examine the growth, survival, and context of 256 novel hashtags during the 2012 U.S. presidential debates. Our analysis reveals the trajectories of hashtag use fall into two distinct classes: "winners" that emerge more quickly and are sustained for longer periods of time than other "also-rans" hashtags. We propose a "conversational vibrancy" framework to capture dynamics of hashtags based on their topicality, interactivity, diversity, and prominence. Statistical analyses of the growth and persistence of hashtags reveal novel relationships between features of this framework and the relative success of hashtags. Specifically, retweets always contribute to faster hashtag adoption, replies extend the life of "winners" while having no effect on "also-rans." This is the first study on the lifecycle of hashtag adoption and use in response to purely exogenous shocks. We draw on theories of uses and gratification, organizational ecology, and language evolution to discuss these findings and their implications for understanding social influence and collective action in social media more generally. 