Most data for evaluating and training recommender systems is subject to selection biases, either through self-selection by the users or through the actions of the recommendation system itself. In this paper, we provide a principled approach to handling selection biases, adapting models and estimation techniques from causal inference. The approach leads to unbiased performance estimators despite biased data, and to a matrix factorization method that provides substantially improved prediction performance on real-world data. We theoretically and empirically characterize the robustness of the approach, finding that it is highly practical and scalable.
 This paper presents an analysis of importance weighting for learning from finite samples and gives a series of theoretical and algorithmic results. We point out simple cases where importance weighting can fail, which suggests the need for an analysis of the properties of this technique. We then give both upper and lower bounds for generalization with bounded importance weights and, more significantly, give learning guarantees for the more common case of unbounded importance weights under the weak assumption that the second moment is bounded, a condition related to the Renyi divergence of the traning and test distributions. These results are based on a series of novel and general bounds we derive for unbounded loss functions, which are of independent interest. We use these bounds to guide the definition of an alternative reweighting algorithm and report the results of experiments demonstrating its benefits. Finally, we analyze the properties of normalized importance weights which are also commonly used. Most questions in social and biomedical sciences are causal in nature: what would happen to individuals, or to groups, if part of their environment were changed? In this groundbreaking text, two world-renowned experts present statistical methods for studying such questions. This book starts with the notion of potential outcomes, each corresponding to the outcome that would be realized if a subject were exposed to a particular treatment or regime. In this approach, causal effects are comparisons of such potential outcomes. The fundamental problem of causal inference is that we can only observe one of the potential outcomes for a particular subject. The authors discuss how randomized experiments allow us to assess causal effects and then turn to observational studies. They lay out the assumptions needed for causal inference and describe the leading analysis methods, including matching, propensity-score methods, and instrumental variables. Many detailed applications are included, with special focus on practical aspects for the empirical researcher. Preface.PART I: OVERVIEW AND BASIC APPROACHES.Introduction.Missing Data in Experiments.Complete-Case and Available-Case Analysis, Including Weighting Methods.Single Imputation Methods.Estimation of Imputation Uncertainty.PART II: LIKELIHOOD-BASED APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF MISSING DATA.Theory of Inference Based on the Likelihood Function.Methods Based on Factoring the Likelihood, Ignoring the Missing-Data Mechanism.Maximum Likelihood for General Patterns of Missing Data: Introduction and Theory with Ignorable Nonresponse.Large-Sample Inference Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimates.Bayes and Multiple Imputation.PART III: LIKELIHOOD-BASED APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF MISSING DATA: APPLICATIONS TO SOME COMMON MODELS.Multivariate Normal Examples, Ignoring the Missing-Data Mechanism.Models for Robust Estimation.Models for Partially Classified Contingency Tables, Ignoring the Missing-Data Mechanism.Mixed Normal and Nonnormal Data with Missing Values, Ignoring the Missing-Data Mechanism.Nonignorable Missing-Data Models.References.Author Index.Subject Index. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of sample selection bias correction. The sample bias correction technique commonly used in machine learning consists of reweighting the cost of an error on each training point of a biased sample to more closely reflect the unbiased distribution. This relies on weights derived by various estimation techniques based on finite samples. We analyze the effect of an error in that estimation on the accuracy of the hypothesis returned by the learning algorithm for two estimation techniques: a cluster-based estimation technique and kernel mean matching. We also report the results of sample bias correction experiments with several data sets using these techniques. Our analysis is based on the novel concept of distributional stability which generalizes the existing concept of point-based stability. Much of our work and proof techniques can be used to analyze other importance weighting techniques and their effect on accuracy when using a distributionally stable algorithm. The simplest approach to dealing with missing data is to restrict the analysis to complete cases, i.e. individuals with no missing values. This can induce bias, however. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a commonly used method to correct this bias. It is also used to adjust for unequal sampling fractions in sample surveys. This article is a review of the use of IPW in epidemiological research. We describe how the bias in the complete-case analysis arises and how IPW can remove it. IPW is compared with multiple imputation (MI) and we explain why, despite MI generally being more efficient, IPW may sometimes be preferred. We discuss the choice of missingness model and methods such as weight truncation, weight stabilisation and augmented IPW. The use of IPW is illustrated on data from the 1958 British Birth Cohort.