The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks. The empirical study on two large-scale real-world datasets and the live A B testing on a commercial platform have demonstrated the superior performance and high efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
In the aspect of a Demand-Side Platform (DSP), which is the agent of advertisers, we study how to predict the winning price such that the DSP can win the bid by placing a proper bidding value in the real-time bidding (RTB) auction. We propose to leverage the machine learning and statistical methods to train the winning price model from the bidding history. A major challenge is that a DSP usually suffers from the censoring of the winning price, especially for those lost bids in the past. To solve it, we utilize the censored regression model, which is widely used in the survival analysis and econometrics, to fit the censored bidding data. Note, however, the assumption of censored regression does not hold on the real RTB data. As a result, we further propose a mixture model, which combines linear regression on bids with observable winning prices and censored regression on bids with the censored winning prices, weighted by the winning rate of the DSP. Experiment results show that the proposed mixture model in general prominently outperforms linear regression in terms of the prediction accuracy. In this paper we study bid optimisation for real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising. RTB allows advertisers to bid on a display ad impression in real time when it is being generated. It goes beyond contextual advertising by motivating the bidding focused on user data and it is different from the sponsored search auction where the bid price is associated with keywords. For the demand side, a fundamental technical challenge is to automate the bidding process based on the budget, the campaign objective and various information gathered in runtime and in history. In this paper, the programmatic bidding is cast as a functional optimisation problem. Under certain dependency assumptions, we derive simple bidding functions that can be calculated in real time; our finding shows that the optimal bid has a non-linear relationship with the impression level evaluation such as the click-through rate and the conversion rate, which are estimated in real time from the impression level features. This is different from previous work that is mainly focused on a linear bidding function. Our mathematical derivation suggests that optimal bidding strategies should try to bid more impressions rather than focus on a small set of high valued impressions because according to the current RTB market data, compared to the higher evaluated impressions, the lower evaluated ones are more cost effective and the chances of winning them are relatively higher. Aside from the theoretical insights, offline experiments on a real dataset and online experiments on a production RTB system verify the effectiveness of our proposed optimal bidding strategies and the functional optimisation framework. We consider the budget optimization problem faced by an advertiser participating in repeated sponsored search auctions, seeking to maximize the number of clicks attained under that budget. We cast the budget optimization problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with censored observations, and propose a learning algorithm based on the wellknown Kaplan-Meier or product-limit estimator. We validate the performance of this algorithm by comparing it to several others on a large set of search auction data from Microsoft adCenter, demonstrating fast convergence to optimal performance. Display advertising has been a significant source of revenue for publishers and ad networks in online advertising ecosystem. One important business model in online display advertising is Ad Exchange marketplace, also called non-guaranteed delivery (NGD), in which advertisers buy targeted page views and audiences on a spot market through real-time auction. In this paper, we describe a bid landscape forecasting system in NGD marketplace for any advertiser campaign specified by a variety of targeting attributes. In the system, the impressions that satisfy the campaign targeting attributes are partitioned into multiple mutually exclusive samples. Each sample is one unique combination of quantified attribute values. We develop a divide-and-conquer approach that breaks down the campaign-level forecasting problem. First, utilizing a novel star-tree data structure, we forecast the bid for each sample using non-linear regression by gradient boosting decision trees. Then we employ a mixture-of-log-normal model to generate campaign-level bid distribution based on the sample-level forecasted distributions. The experiment results of a system developed with our approach show that it can accurately forecast the bid distributions for various campaigns running on the world's largest NGD advertising exchange system, outperforming two baseline methods in term of forecasting errors. In real-time display advertising, ad slots are sold per impression via an auction mechanism. For an advertiser, the campaign information is incomplete --- the user responses (e.g, clicks or conversions) and the market price of each ad impression are observed only if the advertiser's bid had won the corresponding ad auction. The predictions, such as bid landscape forecasting, click-through rate (CTR) estimation, and bid optimisation, are all operated in the pre-bid stage with full-volume bid request data. However, the training data is gathered in the post-bid stage with a strong bias towards the winning impressions. A common solution for learning over such censored data is to reweight data instances to correct the discrepancy between training and prediction. However, little study has been done on how to obtain the weights independent of previous bidding strategies and consequently integrate them into the final CTR prediction and bid generation steps. In this paper, we formulate CTR estimation and bid optimisation under such censored auction data. Derived from a survival model, we show that historic bid information is naturally incorporated to produce Bid-aware Gradient Descents (BGD) which controls both the importance and the direction of the gradient to achieve unbiased learning. The empirical study based on two large-scale real-world datasets demonstrates remarkable performance gains from our solution. The learning framework has been deployed on Yahoo!'s real-time bidding platform and provided 2.97 AUC lift for CTR estimation and 9.30 eCPC drop for bid optimisation in an online A B test. Real-time auction has become an important online advertising trading mechanism. A crucial issue for advertisers is to model the market competition, i.e., bid landscape forecasting. It is formulated as predicting the market price distribution for each ad auction provided by its side information. Existing solutions mainly focus on parameterized heuristic forms of the market price distribution and learn the parameters to fit the data. In this paper, we present a functional bid landscape forecasting method to automatically learn the function mapping from each ad auction features to the market price distribution without any assumption about the functional form. Specifically, to deal with the categorical feature input, we propose a novel decision tree model with a node splitting scheme by attribute value clustering. Furthermore, to deal with the problem of right-censored market price observations, we propose to incorporate a survival model into tree learning and prediction, which largely reduces the model bias. The experiments on real-world data demonstrate that our models achieve substantial performance gains over previous work in various metrics. The software related to this paper is available at https: github.com zeromike bid-lands. A major trend in mobile advertising is the emergence of real time bidding (RTB) based marketplaces on the supply side and the corresponding programmatic impression buying on the demand side. In order to acquire the most relevant audience impression at the lowest cost, a demand side player has to accurately estimate the win rate and winning price in the auction, and incorporate that knowledge in its bid. In this paper, we describe our battle-proven techniques of predicting win rate and winning price in RTB, and the corresponding bidding strategies built on top of those predictions. We also reveal the close relationship between the win rate and winning price estimation, and demonstrate how to solve the two problems together. All of our estimation methods are developed with distributed framework and have been applied to billion order numbers of data in real business operation.