In this work we propose a simple unsupervised approach for next frame prediction in video. Instead of directly predicting the pixels in a frame given past frames, we predict the transformations needed for generating the next frame in a sequence, given the transformations of the past frames. This leads to sharper results, while using a smaller prediction model. @PARASPLIT In order to enable a fair comparison between different video frame prediction models, we also propose a new evaluation protocol. We use generated frames as input to a classifier trained with ground truth sequences. This criterion guarantees that models scoring high are those producing sequences which preserve discrim- inative features, as opposed to merely penalizing any deviation, plausible or not, from the ground truth. Our proposed approach compares favourably against more sophisticated ones on the UCF-101 data set, while also being more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and computational cost.
In a given scene, humans can often easily predict a set of immediate future events that might happen. However, generalized pixel-level anticipation in computer vision systems is difficult because machine learning struggles with the ambiguity inherent in predicting the future. In this paper, we focus on predicting the dense trajectory of pixels in a scene, specifically what will move in the scene, where it will travel, and how it will deform over the course of one second. We propose a conditional variational autoencoder as a solution to this problem. In this framework, direct inference from the image shapes the distribution of possible trajectories, while latent variables encode any necessary information that is not available in the image. We show that our method is able to successfully predict events in a wide variety of scenes and can produce multiple different predictions when the future is ambiguous. Our algorithm is trained on thousands of diverse, realistic videos and requires absolutely no human labeling. In addition to non-semantic action prediction, we find that our method learns a representation that is applicable to semantic vision tasks.