This paper presents a study of the life cycle of news articles posted online. We describe the interplay between website visitation patterns and social media reactions to news content. We show that we can use this hybrid observation method to characterize distinct classes of articles. We also find that social media reactions can help predict future visitation patterns early and accurately. We validate our methods using qualitative analysis as well as quantitative analysis on data from a large international news network, for a set of articles generating more than 3,000,000 visits and 200,000 social media reactions. We show that it is possible to model accurately the overall traffic articles will ultimately receive by observing the first ten to twenty minutes of social media reactions. Achieving the same prediction accuracy with visits alone would require to wait for three hours of data. We also describe significant improvements on the accuracy of the early prediction of shelf-life for news stories.
An increasing fraction of the global discourse is migrating online in the form of blogs, bulletin boards, web pages, wikis, editorials, and a dizzying array of new collaborative technologies. The migration has now proceeded to the point that topics reflecting certain individual products are sufficiently popular to allow targeted online tracking of the ebb and flow of chatter around these topics. Based on an analysis of around half a million sales rank values for 2,340 books over a period of four months, and correlating postings in blogs, media, and web pages, we are able to draw several interesting conclusions.First, carefully hand-crafted queries produce matching postings whose volume predicts sales ranks. Second, these queries can be automatically generated in many cases. And third, even though sales rank motion might be difficult to predict in general, algorithmic predictors can use online postings to successfully predict spikes in sales rank.