In this paper, we present an online two-level vehicle trajectory prediction framework for urban autonomous driving where there are complex contextual factors, such as lane geometries, road constructions, traffic regulations and moving agents. Our method combines high-level policy anticipation with low-level context reasoning. We leverage a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to anticipate the vehicle’s driving policy (e.g., forward, yield, turn left, turn right, etc.) using its sequential history observations. The policy is then used to guide a low-level optimization-based context reasoning process. We show that it is essential to incorporate the prior policy anticipation due to the multimodal nature of the future trajectory. Moreover, contrary to existing regression-based trajectory prediction methods, our optimization-based reasoning process can cope with complex contextual factors. The final output of the two-level reasoning process is a continuous trajectory that automatically adapts to different traffic configurations and accurately predicts future vehicle motions. The performance of the proposed framework is analyzed and validated in an emerging autonomous driving simulation platform (CARLA).
Maneuver recognition and trajectory prediction of moving vehicles are two important and challenging tasks of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) at urban intersections. This paper presents a continuing work to handle these two problems in a consistent framework using non-parametric regression models. We provide a feature normalization scheme and present a strategy for constructing three-dimensional Gaussian process regression models from two-dimensional trajectory patterns. These models can capture spatio-temporal characteristics of traffic situations. Given a new, partially observed and unlabeled trajectory, the maneuver can be recognized online by comparing the likelihoods of the observation data for each individual regression model. Furthermore, we take advantage of our representation for trajectory prediction. Because predicting possible trajectories at urban intersection involves obvious multimodalities and non-linearities, we employ the Monte Carlo method to handle these difficulties. This approach allows the incremental prediction of possible trajectories in situations where unimodal estimators such as Kalman Filters would not work well. The proposed framework is evaluated experimentally in urban intersection scenarios using real-world data. In this paper, we present our approach for collision risk estimation between vehicles. The vehicles are equipped with GPS receivers and communication devices. Our approach consists on using the knowledge given trough communication tool to predict the trajectories of the surrounding vehicles. Based on these trajectories, we identify the configurations of the collisions between vehicles. The risk is calculated using several indicators that are reflecting not only the possible collisions but also the dangerousness of these collisions. Our algorithm is tested on crossroads using scenarios involving real prototypes producing realistic scenarios. This paper presents a threat-assessment algorithm for general road scenes. A road scene consists of a number of objects that are known, and the threat level of the scene is based on their current positions and velocities. The future driver inputs of the surrounding objects are unknown and are modeled as random variables. In order to capture realistic driver behavior, a dynamic driver model is implemented as a probabilistic prior, which computes the likelihood of a potential maneuver. A distribution of possible future scenarios can then be approximated using a Monte Carlo sampling. Based on this distribution, different threat measures can be computed, e.g., probability of collision or time to collision. Since the algorithm is based on the Monte Carlo sampling, it is computationally demanding, and several techniques are presented to increase performance without increasing computational load. The algorithm is intended both for online safety applications in a vehicle and for offline data analysis. The ability to classify driver behavior lays the foundation for more advanced driver assistance systems. In particular, improving safety at intersections has been identified as a high priority due to the large number of intersection-related fatalities. This paper focuses on developing algorithms for estimating driver behavior at road intersections and validating them on real traffic data. It introduces two classes of algorithms that can classify drivers as compliant or violating. They are based on (1) support vector machines and (2) hidden Markov models, which are two very popular machine learning approaches that have been used successfully for classification in multiple disciplines. However, existing work has not explored the benefits of applying these techniques to the problem of driver behavior classification at intersections. The developed algorithms are successfully validated using naturalistic intersection data collected in Christiansburg, VA, through the U.S. Department of Transportation Cooperative Intersection Collision Avoidance System for Violations initiative. Their performances are also compared with those of three traditional methods, and the results show significant improvements with the new algorithms. This paper presents a model-based algorithm that estimates how the driver of a vehicle can either steer, brake, or accelerate to avoid colliding with an arbitrary object. In this algorithm, the motion of the vehicle is described by a linear bicycle model, and the perimeter of the vehicle is represented by a rectangle. The estimated perimeter of the object is described by a polygon that is allowed to change size, shape, position, and orientation at sampled time instances. Potential evasive maneuvers are modeled, parameterized, and approximated such that an analytical expression can be derived to estimate the set of maneuvers that the driver can use to avoid a collision. This set of maneuvers is then assessed to determine if the driver needs immediate assistance to avoid or mitigate an accident. The proposed threat-assessment algorithm is evaluated using authentic data from both real traffic conditions and collision situations on a test track and by using simulations with a detailed vehicle model. The evaluations show that the algorithm outperforms conventional threat-assessment algorithms at rear-end collisions in terms of the timing of autonomous brake activation. This is crucial for increasing the performance of collision-avoidance systems and for decreasing the risk of unnecessary braking. Moreover, the algorithm is computationally efficient and can be used to assist the driver in avoiding or mitigating collisions with all types of road users in all kinds of traffic scenarios. This paper develops a probabilistic anticipation algorithm for dynamic objects observed by an autonomous robot in an urban environment. Predictive Gaussian mixture models are used due to their ability to probabilistically capture continuous and discrete obstacle decisions and behaviors; the predictive system uses the probabilistic output (state estimate and covariance) of a tracking system and map of the environment to compute the probability distribution over future obstacle states for a specified anticipation horizon. A Gaussian splitting method is proposed based on the sigma-point transform and the nonlinear dynamics function, which enables increased accuracy as the number of mixands grows. An approach to caching elements of this optimal splitting method is proposed, in order to enable real-time implementation. Simulation results and evaluations on data from the research community demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can accurately anticipate the probability distributions over future states of nonlinear systems.  With the objective to improve road safety, the automotive industry is moving toward more “intelligent” vehicles. One of the major challenges is to detect dangerous situations and react accordingly in order to avoid or mitigate accidents. This requires predicting the likely evolution of the current traffic situation, and assessing how dangerous that future situation might be. This paper is a survey of existing methods for motion prediction and risk assessment for intelligent vehicles. The proposed classification is based on the semantics used to define motion and risk. We point out the tradeoff between model completeness and real-time constraints, and the fact that the choice of a risk assessment method is influenced by the selected motion model.