We consider extensions of Hoeffding's " exponential method " approach for obtaining upper estimates on the probability that a sum of independent and bounded random variables is significantly larger than its mean. We show that the exponential function in Hoeffding's approach can be replaced with any function which is non-negative, increasing and convex. As a result we generalize and improve upon Hoeffding's inequality. Our approach allows to obtain " missing factors " in Hoeffding's inequality. The later result is a rather weaker version of a theorem that is due to Michel Talagrand. Moreover, we characterize the class of functions with respect to which our method yields optimal concentration bounds. Finally, using ideas from the theory of Bernstein polynomials, we show that similar ideas apply under information on higher moments of the random variables.
Un article celebre d'Hoeffding etablit des bornes pour la deviation d'une somme de variables aleatoires independantes par rapport a sa moyenne. Combinant la methode d'Hoeffding avec la transformation d'Esscher, on montre comment sous des hypotheses supplementaires minimes ces bornes peuvent etre ameliorees d'une facon essentiellement optimale.  In a celebrated work by Hoeffding [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 58 (1963) 13-30], several inequalities for tail probabilities of sums M n = X 1 + ... + X n of bounded independent random variables X j were proved. These inequalities had a considerable impact on the development of probability and statistics, and remained unimproved until 1995 when Talagrand [Inst. Hautes Etudes Sci. Publ. Math. 81 (1995a) 73-205] inserted certain missing factors in the bounds of two theorems. By similar factors, a third theorem was refined by Pinelis [Progress in Probability 43 (1998) 257-314] and refined (and extended) by me. In this article, I introduce a new type of inequality. Namely, I show that P M n ≥ x ≤ cP S n ≥ x , where c is an absolute constant and S n = e 1 + ... + e n is a sum of independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables (a random variable is called Bernoulli if it assumes at most two values). The inequality holds for those x ∈ Ρ where the survival function x → P S n ≥ x has a jump down. For the remaining x the inequality still holds provided that the function between the adjacent jump points is interpolated linearly or log-linearly. If it is necessary, to estimate P S n ≥ x special bounds can be used for binomial probabilities. The results extend to martingales with bounded differences. It is apparent that Theorem 1.1 of this article is the most important. The inequalities have applications to measure concentration, leading to results of the type where, up to an absolute constant, the measure concentration is dominated by the concentration in a simplest appropriate model, such results will be considered elsewhere. Let X be a sum of real valued random variables and have a bounded mean E[X]. The generic Chernoff-Hoeffding estimate for large deviations of X is: P X-E[X]<=a =0 exp(-y(a+E[X]))E[exp(y X)], which applies with a<=0 to random variables with very small tails. At issue is how to use this method to attain sharp and useful estimates. We present a number of Chernoff-Hoeffding bounds for sums of random variables that may have a variety of dependent relationships and that may be heterogeneously distributed.