Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease that affects the central nervous system. The progression and severity of MS varies by individual, but it is generally a disabling disease. Although medications have been developed to slow the disease progression and help manage symptoms, MS research has yet to result in a cure. Early diagnosis and treatment of the disease have been shown to be effective at slowing the development of disabilities. However, early MS diagnosis is difficult because symptoms are intermittent and shared with other diseases. Thus most previous works have focused on uncovering the risk factors associated with MS and predicting the progression of disease after a diagnosis rather than disease prediction. This paper investigates the use of data available in electronic medical records (EMRs) to create a risk prediction model; thereby helping clinicians perform the difficult task of diagnosing an MS patient. Our results demonstrate that even given a limited time window of patient data, one can achieve reasonable classification with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.724. By restricting our features to common EMR components, the developed models also generalize to other healthcare systems.
Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest a protective effect of estrogens on the development and progression of MS. Methods: We assessed whether MS incidence was associated with oral contraceptive use or parity in two cohort studies of U.S. women, the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS; 121,700 women aged 30 to 55 years at baseline in 1976) and the Nurses’ Health Study II (NHS II; 116,671 women aged 25 to 42 years at baseline in 1989). Participants with a diagnosis of MS before baseline were excluded. Oral contraceptive history and parity were assessed at baseline and updated biennially. During follow-ups of 18 years (NHS) and 8 years (NHS II) we documented a total of 315 definite or probable cases of MS. Results: Neither use of oral contraceptives nor parity were significantly associated with the risk of MS. As compared with women who never used oral contraceptives, the age-adjusted relative risk (95 CI) was 1.2 (0.9, 1.5) for past users, and 1.0 (0.6, 1.7) for current users. Similar results were obtained after adjustment for latitude, ancestry, and other potential confounding factors. There was no clear trend of MS risk with either increasing duration of use or time elapsed since last use. Age at first birth was also not associated with the risk of MS. Conclusions: These prospective results do not support a lasting protective effect of oral contraceptive use or pregnancy on the risk of MS. The decision to use hormonal contraception should not be affected by its effects on the risk of MS.  As discussed in Part I of this review, the geographic distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) and the change in risk among migrants provide compelling evidence for the existence of strong environmental determinants of MS, where “environmental” is broadly defined to include differences in diet and other behaviors. As we did for infections, we focus here primarily on those factors that may contribute to explain the geographic variations in MS prevalence and the change in risk among migrants. Among these, sunlight exposure emerges as being the most likely candidate. Because the effects of sun exposure may be mediated by vitamin D, we also examine the evidence linking vitamin D intake or status to MS risk. Furthermore, we review the evidence on cigarette smoking, which cannot explain the geographic variations in MS risk, but may contribute to the recently reported increases in the female male ratio in MS incidence. Other proposed risk factors for MS are mentioned only briefly; although we recognize that some of these might be genuine, evidence is usually sparse and unpersuasive. Ann Neurol 2007 Background:Exogenous estrogens affect the onset and clinical course of experimental allergic encephalomyelitis. Oral contraceptives, a frequent source of exogenous estrogens in humans, could have a role in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To examine whether recent oral contraceptive use and pregnancy history are associated with the risk of MS. Design and Setting: A case-control study nested in the General Practice Research Database. This database contains prospective health information (drug prescriptions andclinicaldiagnoses)onmorethan3millionBritonswho are enrolled with selected general practitioners. Participants:One hundred six female incident cases of