We present a new model, called Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN architectures, PSRNNs use (potentially deeply composed) bilinear transfer functions to combine information from multiple sources, so that one source can act as a gate for another. These bilinear functions arise naturally from the connection to state updates in Bayes filters like PSRs, in which observations can be viewed as gating belief states. We show that PSRNNs can be learned effectively by combining backpropogation through time (BPTT) with an initialization based on a statistically consistent learning algorithm for PSRs called two-stage regression (2SR). We also show that PSRNNs can be can be factorized using tensor decomposition, reducing model size and suggesting interesting theoretical connections to existing multiplicative architectures such as LSTMs. We applied PSRNNs to 4 datasets, and showed that we outperform several popular alternative approaches to modeling dynamical systems in all cases.
Low dimensional representations of words allow accurate NLP models to be trained on limited annotated data. While most representations ignore words' local context, a natural way to induce context-dependent representations is to perform inference in a probabilistic latent-variable sequence model. Given the recent success of continuous vector space word representations, we provide such an inference procedure for continuous states, where words' representations are given by the posterior mean of a linear dynamical system. Here, efficient inference can be performed using Kalman filtering. Our learning algorithm is extremely scalable, operating on simple cooccurrence counts for both parameter initialization using the method of moments and subsequent iterations of EM. In our experiments, we employ our inferred word embeddings as features in standard tagging tasks, obtaining significant accuracy improvements. Finally, the Kalman filter updates can be seen as a linear recurrent neural network. We demonstrate that using the parameters of our model to initialize a non-linear recurrent neural network language model reduces its training time by a day and yields lower perplexity. Much recent research highlighted the critical role of unsuper- vised pre-training to improve the performance of neural network models. However, extensions of those architectures to the temporal domain intro- duce additional issues, which often prevent to obtain good performance in a reasonable time. We propose a novel approach to pre-train sequential neural networks in which a simpler, approximate distribution generated by a linear model is first used to drive the weights in a better region of the parameter space. After this smooth distribution has been learned, the net- work is fine-tuned on the more complex real dataset. The benefits of the proposed method are demonstrated on a prediction task using two datasets of polyphonic music, and the general validity of this strategy is shown by applying it to two different recurrent neural network architectures.  Over the past decade there has been considerable interest in spectral algorithms for learning Predictive State Representations (PSRs). Spectral algorithms have appealing theoretical guarantees; however, the resulting models do not always perform well on inference tasks in practice. One reason for this behavior is the mismatch between the intended task (accurate filtering or prediction) and the loss function being optimized by the algorithm (estimation error in model parameters). A natural idea is to improve performance by refining PSRs using an algorithm such as EM. Unfortunately it is not obvious how to apply apply an EM style algorithm in the context of PSRs as the Log Likelihood is not well defined for all PSRs. We show that it is possible to overcome this problem using ideas from Predictive State Inference Machines. We combine spectral algorithms for PSRs as a consistent and efficient initialization with PSIM-style updates to refine the resulting model parameters. By combining these two ideas we develop Inference Gradients, a simple, fast, and robust method for practical learning of PSRs. Inference Gradients performs gradient descent in the PSR parameter space to optimize an inference-based loss function like PSIM. Because Inference Gradients uses a spectral initialization we get the same consistency benefits as PSRs. We show that Inference Gradients outperforms both PSRs and PSIMs on real and synthetic data sets.