There is great interest in supporting imprecise queries over databases today. To support such queries, the system is typically required to disambiguate parts of the user-specified query against the database, using whatever resources are intrinsically available to it (the database schema, value distributions, natural language models etc). Often, systems will also have a user-interaction log available, which can supplement their model based on their own intrinsic resources. This leads to a problem of how best to combine the system's prior ranking with insight derived from the user-interaction log. Statistical inference techniques such as maximum likelihood or Bayesian updates from a subjective prior turn out not to apply in a straightforward way due to possible noise from user search behavior and to encoding biases endemic to the system's models. In this paper, we address such learning problems in interactive data retrieval, with specific focus on type classification for user-specified query terms. We develop a novel Bayesian smoothing algorithm, Bsmooth, which is simple, fast, flexible and accurate. We analytically establish some desirable properties and show, through experiments against an independent benchmark, that the addition of such a learning layer performs much better than standard methods.
A method is proposed to quantify uncertainty on statistical forecasts using the formalism of belief functions. The approach is based on two steps. In the estimation step, a belief function on the parameter space is constructed from the normalized likelihood given the observed data. In the prediction step, the variable Y to be forecasted is written as a function of the parameter θ and an auxiliary random variable Z with known distribution not depending on the parameter, a model initially proposed by Dempster for statistical inference. Propagating beliefs about θ and Z through this model yields a predictive belief function on Y. The method is demonstrated on the problem of forecasting innovation diffusion using the Bass model, yielding a belief function on the number of adopters of an innovation in some future time period, based on past adoption data. Estimation of extreme sea levels for high return periods is of prime importance in hydrological design and flood risk assessment. Common practice consists of inferring design levels from historical observations and assuming the distribution of extreme values to be stationary. However, in recent years, there has been a growing awareness of the necessity to integrate the effects of climate change in environmental analysis. In this paper, we present a methodology based on belief functions to combine statistical judgements with expert evidence in order to predict the future centennial sea level at a particular location, taking into account climate change. Likelihood-based belief functions derived from statistical observations are combined with random intervals encoding expert assessments of the 21st century sea level rise. Monte Carlo simulations allow us to compute belief and plausibility degrees for various hypotheses about the design parameter.