The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverage state-of-the-art techniques in efficient Bayes-adaptive planning and non-parametric Bayesian methods to perform qualitatively better than both existing conventional algorithms and Thompson sampling on two contextual bandit-like problems.
In environments with uncertain dynamics exploration is necessary to learn how to perform well. Existing reinforcement learning algorithms provide strong exploration guarantees, but they tend to rely on an ergodicity assumption. The essence of ergodicity is that any state is eventually reachable from any other state by following a suitable policy. This assumption allows for exploration algorithms that operate by simply favoring states that have rarely been visited before. For most physical systems this assumption is impractical as the systems would break before any reasonable exploration has taken place, i.e., most physical systems don't satisfy the ergodicity assumption. In this paper we address the need for safe exploration methods in Markov decision processes. We first propose a general formulation of safety through ergodicity. We show that imposing safety by restricting attention to the resulting set of guaranteed safe policies is NP-hard. We then present an efficient algorithm for guaranteed safe, but potentially suboptimal, exploration. At the core is an optimization formulation in which the constraints restrict attention to a subset of the guaranteed safe policies and the objective favors exploration policies. Our framework is compatible with the majority of previously proposed exploration methods, which rely on an exploration bonus. Our experiments, which include a Martian terrain exploration problem, show that our method is able to explore better than classical exploration methods.