This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowledge of the observation model is only provided by examples of state-observation pairs. This setting is important and appears when state variables are defined as quantities that are very different from the observations. We propose Kernel Monte Carlo Filter, a novel filtering method that is focused on this setting. Our approach is based on the framework of kernel mean embeddings, which enables nonparametric posterior inference using the state-observation examples. The proposed method represents state distributions as weighted samples, propagates these samples by sampling, estimates the state posteriors by Kernel Bayes' Rule, and resamples by Kernel Herding. In particular, the sampling and resampling procedures are novel in being expressed using kernel mean embeddings, so we theoretically analyze their behaviors. We reveal the following properties, which are similar to those of corresponding procedures in particle methods: (1) the performance of sampling can degrade if the effective sample size of a weighted sample is small; (2) resampling improves the sampling performance by increasing the effective sample size. We first demonstrate these theoretical findings by synthetic experiments. Then we show the effectiveness of the proposed filter by artificial and real data experiments, which include vision-based mobile robot localization.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique to facilitate Bayesian inference from complex models. In this article we present an ABC approximation designed to perform biased filtering for a Hidden Markov Model when the likelihood function is intractable. We use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to both fit and sample from our ABC approximation of the target probability density. This approach is shown to, empirically, be more accurate w.r.t. the original filter than competing methods. The theoretical bias of our method is investigated; it is shown that the bias goes to zero at the expense of increased computational effort. Our approach is illustrated on a constrained sequential lasso for portfolio allocation to 15 constituents of the FTSE 100 share index. Measures of genomic similarity are often the basis of flexible statistical analyses, and when based on kernel methods, they provide a powerful platform to take advantage of a broad and deep statistical theory, and a wide range of existing software; see the companion paper for a review of this material [1]. The kernel method converts information – perhaps complex or high-dimensional information – for a pair of subjects to a quantitative value representing either similarity or dissimilarity, with the requirement that it must create a positive semidefinite matrix when applied to all pairs of subjects. This approach provides enormous opportunities to enhance genetic analyses by including a wide range of publically-available data as structured kernel ‘prior’ information. Kernel methods are appealing for their generality, yet this generality can make it challenging to formulate measures of similarity that directly address a specific scientific aim, or that are most powerful to detect a specific genetic mechanism. Although it is difficult to create a cook book of kernels for genetic studies, useful guidelines can be gleaned from a variety of novel published approaches. We review some novel developments of kernels for specific analyses and speculate on how to build kernels for complex genomic attributes based on publically available data. The creativity of analysts, with rigorous evaluations by applications to real and simulated data, will ultimately provide a much stronger array of kernel ‘tools’ for genetic analyses.