We consider the problem of efficiently constructing cheap and novel round trip flight itineraries by combining legs from different airlines. We analyse the factors that contribute towards the price of such itineraries and find that many result from the combination of just 30 of airlines and that the closer the departure of such itineraries is to the user's search date the more likely they are to be cheaper than the tickets from one airline. We use these insights to formulate the problem as a trade-off between the recall of cheap itinerary constructions and the costs associated with building them. We propose a supervised learning solution with location embeddings which achieves an AUC=80.48, a substantial improvement over simpler baselines. We discuss various practical considerations for dealing with the staleness and the stability of the model and present the design of the machine learning pipeline. Finally, we present an analysis of the model's performance in production and its impact on Skyscanner's users.
Travel providers such as airlines and on-line travel agents are becoming more and more interested in understanding how passengers choose among alternative itineraries when searching for flights. This knowledge helps them better display and adapt their offer, taking into account market conditions and customer needs. Some common applications are not only filtering and sorting alternatives, but also changing certain attributes in real-time (e.g., changing the price). In this paper, we concentrate with the problem of modeling air passenger choices of flight itineraries. This problem has historically been tackled using classical Discrete Choice Modelling techniques. Traditional statistical approaches, in particular the Multinomial Logit model (MNL), is widely used in industrial applications due to its simplicity and general good performance. However, MNL models present several shortcomings and assumptions that might not hold in real applications. To overcome these difficulties, we present a new choice model based on Pointer Networks. Given an input sequence, this type of deep neural architecture combines Recurrent Neural Networks with the Attention Mechanism to learn the conditional probability of an output whose values correspond to positions in an input sequence. Therefore, given a sequence of different alternatives presented to a customer, the model can learn to point to the one most likely to be chosen by the customer. The proposed method was evaluated on a real dataset that combines on-line user search logs and airline flight bookings. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the traditional MNL model on several metrics.  At the heart of Air Traffic Management (ATM) lies the Decision Support Systems (DST) that rely upon accurate trajectory prediction to determine how the airspace will look like in the future to make better decisions and advisories. Dealing with airspace that is prone to congestion due to environmental factors still remains the challenge especially when a deterministic approach is used in the trajectory prediction process. In this paper, we describe a novel stochastic trajectory prediction approach for ATM that can be used for more efficient and realistic flight planning and to assist airspace flow management, potentially resulting in higher safety, capacity, and efficiency commensurate with fuel savings thereby reducing emissions for a better environment. Our approach considers airspace as a 3D grid network, where each grid point is a location of a weather observation. We hypothetically build cubes around these grid points, so the entire airspace can be considered as a set of cubes. Each cube is defined by its centroid, the original grid point, and associated weather parameters that remain homogeneous within the cube during a period of time. Then, we align raw trajectories to a set of cube centroids which are basically fixed 3D positions independent of trajectory data. This creates a new form of trajectories which are 4D joint cubes, where each cube is a segment that is associated with not only spatio-temporal attributes but also with weather parameters. Next, we exploit machine learning techniques to train inference models from historical data and apply a stochastic model, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to predict trajectories taking environmental uncertainties into account. During the process, we apply time series clustering to generate input observations from an excessive set of weather parameters to feed into the Viterbi algorithm. Our experiments use a real trajectory dataset with pertaining weather observations and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to the trajectory prediction process for ATM. The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment. A Revolution in the Making Method or Madness? The Computer Did It How It All Works When Passengers Collide Hold Me, Darlin' Upon Arrival: Hotels, Rental Cars, Cruise Ships, and More The Just Price The Scientists The State of Pricing Pricing's Many Faces The Coming Revolution As product prices become increasingly available on the World Wide Web, consumers attempt to understand how corporations vary these prices over time. However, corporations change prices based on proprietary algorithms and hidden variables (e.g., the number of unsold seats on a flight). Is it possible to develop data mining techniques that will enable consumers to predict price changes under these conditions?This paper reports on a pilot study in the domain of airline ticket prices where we recorded over 12,000 price observations over a 41 day period. When trained on this data, Hamlet --- our multi-strategy data mining algorithm --- generated a predictive model that saved 341 simulated passengers @math 320,572 in our simulation, thus H AMLET 's savings were 61.8 of optimal. The algorithm's savings of $198,074 represents an average savings of 23.8 for the 341 passengers for whom savings are possible. Overall, HAMLET saved 4.4 of the ticket price averaged over the entire set of 4,488 simulated passengers. Our pilot study suggests that mining of price data available over the web has the potential to save consumers substantial sums of money per annum.