A design-centric modeling approach was proposed to model the behavior of the physical process controlled by an Industrial Control System (ICS) and study the cascading effects of data-oriented attacks. A threat model was used as input to guide the construction of the model where control components which are within the adversary's intent and capabilities are extracted. The relevant control components are subsequently modeled together with their control dependencies and operational design specifications. The approach was demonstrated and validated on a water treatment testbed. Attacks were simulated on the testbed model where its resilience to attacks was evaluated using proposed metrics such as Impact Ratio and Time-to-Critical-State. From the analysis of the attacks, design strengths and weaknesses were identified and design improvements were recommended to increase the testbed's resilience to attacks.
Abstract Estimating the possible impacts of security attacks on physical processes can help to rank the critical assets based on their sensitivity to performed attacks and predict their attractiveness from the attacker’s point of view. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a new method for assessing the direct and indirect impacts of attacks on cyber–physical systems (CPSs). The proposed method studies the dynamic behavior of systems in normal situation and under security attacks and evaluates the consequence propagation of attacks. The inputs to the model are control parameters including sensor readings and controller signals. The output of the model is evaluating the consequence propagation of attacks, ranking the important assets of systems based on their sensitivity to conducted attacks, and prioritizing the attacks based on their impacts on the behavior of system. The validation phase of the proposed method is performed by modeling and evaluating the consequence propagation of attacks against a boiling water power plant (BWPP).