Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, and at that point, the intervention of humans will be limited to setting high-level goals and policies rather than performing low-level operations. Data-driven autonomics, where management and control are based on holistic predictive models that are built and updated using live data, opens one possible path towards limiting the role of operators in data centers. In this paper, we present a data-science study of a public Google dataset collected in a 12K-node cluster with the goal of building and evaluating predictive models for node failures. Our results support the practicality of a data-driven approach by showing the effectiveness of predictive models based on data found in typical data center logs. We use BigQuery, the big data SQL platform from the Google Cloud suite, to process massive amounts of data and generate a rich feature set characterizing node state over time. We describe how an ensemble classifier can be built out of many Random Forest classifiers each trained on these features, to predict if nodes will fail in a future 24-h window. Our evaluation reveals that if we limit false positive rates to 5 , we can achieve true positive rates between 27 and 88 with precision varying between 50 and 72 . This level of performance allows us to recover large fraction of jobs' executions (by redirecting them to other nodes when a failure of the present node is predicted) that would otherwise have been wasted due to failures. We discuss the feasibility of including our predictive model as the central component of a data-driven autonomic manager and operating it on-line with live data streams (rather than off-line on data logs). All of the scripts used for BigQuery and classification analyses are publicly available on GitHub.
In large-scale data enters, software and hardware failures are frequent, resulting in failures of job executions that may cause significant resource waste and performance deterioration. To proactively minimize the resource inefficiency due to job failures, it is important to identify them in advance using key job attributes. However, so far, prevailing research on datacenter workload characterization has overlooked job failures, including their patterns, root causes, and impact. In this paper, we aim to develop prediction models and mitigation policies for unsuccessful jobs, so as to reduce the resource waste in big data enters. In particular, we base our analysis on Google cluster traces, consisting of a large number of big-data jobs with a high task fan-out. We first identify the time-varying patterns of failed jobs and the contributing system features. Based on our characterization study, we develop an on-line predictive model for job failures by applying various statistical learning techniques, namely Linear Discriminate Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminate Analysis (QDA), and Logistic Regression (LR). Furthermore, we propose a delay-based mitigation policy which, after a certain grace period, proactively terminates the execution of jobs that are predicted to fail. The particular objective of postponing job terminations is to strike a good tradeoffs between resource waste and false prediction of successful jobs. Our evaluation results show that the proposed method is able to significantly reduce the resource waste by 41.9 on average, and keep false terminations of jobs low, i.e., only 1 . Current generation of Internet-based services are typically hosted on large data centers that take the form of warehouse-size structures housing tens of thousands of servers. Continued availability of a modern data center is the result of a complex orchestration among many internal and external actors including computing hardware, multiple layers of intricate software, networking and storage devices, electrical power and cooling plants. During the course of their operation, many of these components produce large amounts of data in the form of event and error logs that are essential not only for identifying and resolving problems but also for improving data center efficiency and management. Most of these activities would benefit significantly from data analytics techniques to exploit hidden statistical patterns and correlations that may be present in the data. The sheer volume of data to be analyzed makes uncovering these correlations and patterns a challenging task. This paper presents Big Data analyzer (BiDAl), a prototype Java tool for log-data analysis that incorporates several Big Data technologies in order to simplify the task of extracting information from data traces produced by large clusters and server farms. BiDAl provides the user with several analysis languages (SQL, R and Hadoop MapReduce) and storage backends (HDFS and SQLite) that can be freely mixed and matched so that a custom tool for a specific task can be easily constructed. BiDAl has a modular architecture so that it can be extended with other backends and analysis languages in the future. In this paper we present the design of BiDAl and describe our experience using it to analyze publicly-available traces from Google data clusters, with the goal of building a realistic model of a complex data center. Prediction of host load in Cloud systems is critical for achieving service-level agreements. However, accurate prediction of host load in Clouds is extremely challenging because it fluctuates drastically at small timescales. We design a prediction method based on Bayes model to predict the mean load over a long-term time interval, as well as the mean load in consecutive future time intervals. We identify novel predictive features of host load that capture the expectation, predictability, trends and patterns of host load. We also determine the most effective combinations of these features for prediction. We evaluate our method using a detailed one-month trace of a Google data center with thousands of machines. Experiments show that the Bayes method achieves high accuracy with a mean squared error of 0.0014. Moreover, the Bayes method improves the load prediction accuracy by 5.6 -- 50 compared to other state-of-the-art methods based on moving averages, auto-regression, and or noise filters. With the ever-growing complexity and dynamicity of computer systems, proactive fault management is an effective approach to enhancing availability. Online failure prediction is the key to such techniques. In contrast to classical reliability methods, online failure prediction is based on runtime monitoring and a variety of models and methods that use the current state of a system and, frequently, the past experience as well. This survey describes these methods. To capture the wide spectrum of approaches concerning this area, a taxonomy has been developed, whose different approaches are explained and major concepts are described in detail. Modern data centers that provide Internet-scale services are stadium-size structures housing tens of thousands of heterogeneous devices (server clusters, networking equipment, power and cooling infrastructures) that must operate continuously and reliably. As part of their operation, these devices produce large amounts of data in the form of event and error logs that are essential not only for identifying problems but also for improving data center efficiency and management. These activities employ data analytics and often exploit hidden statistical patterns and correlations among different factors present in the data. Uncovering these patterns and correlations is challenging due to the sheer volume of data to be analyzed. This paper presents BiDAl, a prototype "log-data analysis framework" that incorporates various Big Data technologies to simplify the analysis of data traces from large clusters. BiDAl is written in Java with a modular and extensible architecture so that different storage backends (currently, HDFS and SQLite are supported), as well as different analysis languages (current implementation supports SQL, R and Hadoop MapReduce) can be easily selected as appropriate. We present the design of BiDAl and describe our experience using it to analyze several public traces of Google data clusters for building a simulation model capable of reproducing observed behavior.