UNKNOWN
No, if something is probable, I submit that it means the same, virtually the same as that is reasonably possibly true.  There's a fair probability if you look at the defence, like it was stated here in a civil matter, the Defendant's defence is a good one.  It means that what is analysed here is the what the Defendant said virtually in isolation, on paper, does it create a fair probability that it's a good one?  It's an impression which is formed on the probabilities.