Yesterday, I wrote a comment about the possibly cute maneuvers in which special counsel Robert Mueller might be engaging, in order to overcome the considerable difficulties inherent in bringing impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump.
I was wrong about the import and impact of those maneuvers. What is required is even more complex than I thought yesterday.
For sure, the House of Representatives can pretty much adopt whatever Articles of Impeachment it cares to. By the same token, the Senate can do whatever it likes, also.
But Trump has many wide-ranging powers, plus his inherent combative personality, which provide considerable obstacles to Congress doing entirely what it may want.
And so it is, at least in my opinion, that Mueller is likely engaging in an intricate series of legalistic ballet steps, better to enhance the chances of success of any impeachment proceedings.
The primary problem is this: a President cannot be impeached for crimes committed while out of office.
Not only does that mean Trump can’t be prosecuted while in office for all that racketeering engaged in with the Russians over the past thirty years.
It means he can’t be impeached for any and all alleged crimes he may have committed during the 2016 US Presidential election. He wasn’t yet President.
But duh. I forgot the primary problem: those ‘minor’ crimes were still not committed while Trump was President. They aren’t impeachable offenses. They may be crimes for which others can be prosecuted. But not Trump. Not while he is in office.
I think, therefore, Mueller may be attempting something even more fragile. A legal ‘Back to the Future’ exercise.
Dredge up all he can about the thirty years of Trump-Russia racketeering. Demonstrate that certain questionable activity by the Trump campaign during the election was purposefully designed illicitly, even illegally, to enhance the chances of Trump being elected.
Then, document continued financial gain to Trump during his time as President, flowing from the previous thirty years of racketeering (primarily the Rosneft deal), and from the illicit election activity, and attempt to produce a trail representing a corruption of the office of President.
Back, forward, back. Maybe … ??
Six months on, and precious little voter remorse among Trump supporters, according to a continuing series in the London Guardian newspaper. Especially in Pennsylvania, still a crucial swing state.
If this maintains, do not expect good news in 2020. Plus, in 2018, it may just galvanize enough Trump voters to attempt to give Trump more support in Congress.
1) Who is releasing all these documents? Is it the Russians? Are they trying to embarrass Trump and the Republicans? And, if so, why? Aren’t they supposed to be mates? Or, is it a more complex play? Something has to give; so, feed the media minnows; in order to protect the bigger fish?
2) Is the ‘Russian state apparatus’ that set up all these meetings and movie screenings the same apparatus that provided supposedly damning information on Trump to the former British MI6 agent, Christopher Steele, as he compiled what became known as the Buzzfeed Dossier, first for other Republican Presidential candidates, and later for Hillary Clinton? In other words, are the Russians playing all sides, or just Trump?
3) Why is Magnitsky important?
Last question first. Google ‘Magnitsky Act,’ ‘Sergei Magnitsky,’ ‘Bill Browder’ and ‘Hermitage Capital’ on Wikipedia. That will give you a primer.
Contrary to the mistaken interpretation of most of the mainstream media, the Magnitsky Act has little to do with human rights violations in Russia, and everything to do with striking at the heart of Russian money-laundering (read through the links in this note, and you will understand why this is important).
Money-laundering was and is important to Putin, corrupt Russian government officials and the Russian mob (obviously). It was and is also important to Donald Trump, who has made himself available to the Russians as one of their primary money-laundering routes for some thirty years. Not least through and into New York real estate.
Putin not only wanted sanctions lifted for the obvious reasons. He wanted them out of the way to sweeten the Rosneft deal Trump was brokering for Putin, for a fee of some $500 million. Lift sanctions, and the share price of Rosneft goes through the roof. Making extra money for the Russians, Putin, Trump and Qatar.
As I am beginning to believe, it is highly possible that Putin initially demonstrated no especial favoritism to any particular US Presidential candidate. But that Trump became his favorite: (1) Because he proved to be so receptive; and (2) Not least because of the Rosneft deal.
In any event, whatever the outcome of the US Presidential election, Putin required as much progress as possible on lifting sanctions before that election, in order to move the Rosneft deal along. That, in turn, meant that his apparatus was especially focused on Republican legislators, since they controlled (and control) both chambers of Congress.
I’m not sure that Browder, Magnitsky, Hermitage Capital and the $230 million laundered were all that important to Putin, per se. Although the subsequent Magnitsky Act was important, for the reasons stated above.
But. During the course of 2017, the New York trial involving the Russian-connected company at the New York realty end of the $230 million launder, that trial was stopped, possibly for political reasons. Certainly, in March 2017, the Manhattan US Attorney who had begun the case, Preet Bharara, was fired by Donald Trump.
So, are Browder, Magnitsky and Hermitage more important to Trump than we are currently aware? Could this have anything to do with the fact that their story could be a crucial element in understanding Russian money-laundering into New York real estate?
Or. Again. Slightly contradicting myself. Could they be more important to Putin than we know? When I was researching my own book, Maggie’s Hammer, my Israeli Intelligence source made regular reference to a single $28 million arms deal that my mate brokered with Iraq.
I could not understand why the constant reference to this one deal. In the context of some $60 billion in arms sold by the West to Saddam Hussein in the Eighties. Until I realized that the implication was that this one deal was Margaret Thatcher’s personal sweet deal. Her private pension fund. Could it be that something like this is the hidden importance of Magnitsky and Hermitage?
At which point, I hope that this note offers some small continuing hint of why one needs to look beyond all the salacious gossip about Don Jr., his Russian mates, and Netflix moments in the US Congress, in order to find the deeper truth.
Once upon a time, there was a Russian dictator called ‘Vlad,’ who, better than most, realized that, during the Eighties, everything in global governance became corrupted by money (way more than normal).
He knew this because he presided over the biggest candy store of them all. A former empire, still protected with nuclear weapons, but essentially falling apart.
Invite in everyone with a bank account. Steal the bank account. And then launder out anything not attached to a mountain, or not exportable through a pipeline.
Of course, Vlad needed the assistance of the best. The best bankers? No problem. The City of London had been whoring itself out since the days of the East India Company. Yes. It was a real company. Not just a prop for Johnny Depp movies.
But what Vlad really needed was a country. A destination. A ruler who, well, ruled the world. The United States.
Obama was no good. Way too pure. But his Secretary of State had few scruples. As had been proven when she merrily sold her Senate vote to Vlad to help him export some of his Russian oil wealth by way of a Canadian oil firm.
As for the Republicans. Well, there were few purists there. With one added bonus. Trump. Vlad’s empire had been in bed with that racketeer for thirty years. Could either bribe him or blackmail him. Didn’t make much difference.
And so, Vlad set his sights on the 2016 US Presidential Election.
Step One. Let loose his people to feed negative information to whomsoever was gathering during the Primaries. Prime candidate? A former British MI6 agent, by the name of Christopher Steele. Putting together opposition research for a number of Republican candidates.
Steele’s focus was on collecting nasties about Trump. Ooh goody. Vlad had lots of filth on him. But, hang on. Surely Vlad wouldn’t want to muddy the waters on Trump? Why not? Vlad had no idea who was going to win. All he wanted to ensure was that, whoever won, he (Vlad) held their marker. That was the name of his game. Always.
Hillary won the Democratic Primary. Trump won the Republican. Something of a surprise with respect to Trump. But a pleasant one. Vlad had dirt on both of them.
First up, Steele took his dossier to Hillary. Who quite merrily sought meetings with the Russian Ambassador to the US. A fact not much covered in the US mainstream media. Hillary would serve well as a catch. She knew that money greased the wheels. Her bark would turn out to be much worse than her bite. As it had done when she was US Secretary of State.
Overtures were made to Trump. He bit. And arrangements were made with him. Possibly an even better catch. Trump had never pretended that his motives were much removed from profit. As had become clear over decades of his laundering illicit cash out of Russia. And had been cemented by Trump’s deal-making over Rosneft. Even as the Republican Primary was under way.
Vlad let loose the dogs. And waited for the outcome.
Trump won. And then got cold feet. No ditching of sanctions. No re-launch of the Russian oil and gas industry. No loosening of access to cash pipelines out of Russia. Even worse. The Rosneft deal was kaput. The lifting of sanctions was supposed to have triggered a massive increase in the share price of Rosneft, making billions for all involved, not least Vlad’s mates and Trump himself.
So. Vlad the Impaler. Well. He impaled.
His agencies had become somewhat adept at hacking, stealing, leaking and faking. And so it came to pass. Stories began to appear in the western media. If you can’t get the US President you elected to join you. Then. Hmm. Get him impeached. Or at least scare him.
As fairy stories go, pretty Grimm, huh … ??
Away from all the whizz-bang of Trump conflict, an excellent analysis in the Washington Post of why all the disruption in society and politics at the moment.
Loads of change in society. Working Americans feeling left behind. Without a rudder. Without support. Without guidance. A total loss of trust in politicians, and in the media.
Donald Trump Jr: The E-Trail to Nowhere?
1) How did the NYTimes get its information about the Don Jr. meeting, and the attendant e-mails?
2) Does the end result actually amount to a row of beans?
3) Is there any chance that this is all an exercise in deflecting us from more important matters?
Hmm. This whole soap opera began back in January of this year, when some senior US intelligence personnel decided to summarize a dossier of information on Trump in a two-page note, which was then appended to a national intelligence briefing for the then still-President Obama.
The dossier purported to be a folder of information compiled by a former British MI6 operative, acting privately in the matter of opposition research, first for several unnamed Republican Presidential candidates, and latterly for the Hillary campaign.
The information itself was said to be a comprehensive and embarrassing collection of illicit activities involving Trump, corrupt Russian government officials, the Russian mob, etc. – oh, and golden showers. And it was alleged that the information was uber-embarrassing, not least because it came from good sources, namely contacts close to the Kremlin.
I want to pause for just one moment. To allow you to wonder if you’ve heard those phrases used in reference to anything else in the past couple of days.
Everyone and his uncle leapt about all over Facebook, the social media, their respective blogs, Amazon, Reddit and e-Bay. Desperate to share the awful news about the incoming President.
I, on the other hand, wondered where the story had come from. And whether or not it had been planted.
I would have been prepared to let it go. But, over the ensuing months, instead of the story about Trump becoming any clearer. Instead of evidence coming to the fore, which irrefutably condemned his actions. The whole edifice became murkier.
Not least because, time and again, the waters were muddied, at least in my opinion, by senior officials (many times, once again, US intelligence officials) affecting to have damning information. Only then, to back away, once the cameras were rolling.
I found this strange. But only that. What I found troubling was the extent to which these officials were prepared to risk damaging US national security and international relations with the revelations they proffered to underpin their attacks on Trump.
Again. I spent my time wondering about this, rather than glorying in the revelations themselves.
The more all the revealing seemed to be going nowhere (remember the Comey smoking gun to nowhere?). The more I wondered if something much deeper and darker was not being smothered.
In March of this year, for the first time, I suspected the real story might end up being about Trump laundering money for the Russians over the years.
I then discovered the deal that Trump brokered in 2016/2017, whereby the Russian government sold 19.5% of Rosneft to Qatar.
I was pretty sure this might be the story someone was trying to hide. Not least because of the possible domino effect arising from its exposure.
So convinced was I that this was the smoking cannon, I took time out to write a tongue-in-cheek masterpiece. And then did a radio interview.
Problem was, the tongue-in-cheek began to make sense. And the interview didn’t. It all got me thinking again. What if the real story was all the stuff behind Rosneft? Before Rosneft?
What if the real story was the thirty years of racketeering between Trump and corrupt Russian government officials and the Russian mob?
What if, as two anonymous but apparently senior FBI sources stated, what if the real investigation was not the one into collusion of any kind during the US Presidential election of 2016; but was actually a ten-year investigation into Trump criminality?
Then, just as there seemed to be some leakage in the media that this latter line might well be the real story. We were body-slammed with the Don Jr. eruption. Co-incidence?
There is just so much about the Don Jr. story that does not add up. I’m sorry. But it screams deflection. Um. Hence, my opening three questions.
But to what end? I go back to a post I put up in May of this year, when I wondered and wandered merrily about double-dealing and double agents. I was laughed at.
But I’m now pretty much back where I began in January. Forget what you read. Please, forget what you read.
The real story with Trump and Russia does not begin and end with Hillary Clinton. Nor even with Don Jr. He’s a patsy. He’ll get off with a slap on the wrist. And then where are we?
This story goes much deeper. There are many serious players. And many serious, conflicting agendas. Little of which we truly understand. Yet.
This happened at least once before. Iran-Contra. Oliver North was offered up to Congress as a patsy. He and his cohorts were found guilty. Then they were pardoned.
But while the world was congratulating itself for catching North and his mob for selling $1billion worth of utterly useless missiles to Iran, we all missed the $80billion in weapons being sold to Iran by the West via something called the Blue Pipeline.
I say we need to take a closer look at the whole Trump fandango. It’s possible we’re falling for a similar sleight of hand now.
But hang on. Maybe I’m being a little too dismissive of the NYTimes? On the face of it. They appear to have done some good work. Read these three articles: NYTimes1, NYTimes2 and NYTimes3.
Seemingly extensive, coherent, intense, in-depth. But read beyond the lines. Use your common sense.
Where did all this come from? What does it amount to? Tens of billions of laundered dollars for the Russian mob? Wholesale corruption of the American body politic? Hardly.
What we have is a tawdry story involving a man described as the ‘Pedro’ of the Trump family. A beauty pageant. A hotel that never happened. A small-time Russian pop star. A seedy British music publicist. A no-name Russian lawyer. And yet one more meeting to nowhere.
Somewhere in all of this there is a serious story. With serious players. Serious agendas. Possibly international agendas. Remember Qatar?
Don Jr.’s exploits just do not fit that bill. He is a sideshow. Offered as distraction. And the NYTimes fell for it. And lurking in the background is the suspicion (at least in my mind) that the man responsible for the distraction could well be Trump himself.
But, before we get to Trump Dad. Back to the NYTimes articles. There is a feature about them which is what I believe bedevils the entirety of the whole Trump investigation saga.
There is a hint within all of the articles of the deeper truth. But just that. A hint. No more.
The pop star’s father is connected to Putin. There one minute. Gone the next. Talk of adoptions is really about sanctions. Mention of Magnitsky is made. But in the context of human-rights violations. Not money-laundering.
The Miss Universe pageant. The failed Moscow Trump Tower. A quick glance at Russian mob investment in Trump. Then, it fades. While, back in New York, the real mob money is becoming more firmly embedded in the original Trump Tower.
The entire edifice is either one sublime series of stumbles. Or genius. A cleverly-constructed carousel of chaos and confusion. One minute, you see it, you follow. The next, whoosh. The carousel continues. And it’s gone. It was all smokescreen.
“But. Geoff, Geoff, Geoff. Are you seriously suggesting that all of this is some intricate scheme to deflect attention from thirty years of Trump criminality?
Surely, that would require what amounts to a military-style, psyops operation, of committed people, qualified to target people (not to mention voters), with complex alternative facts, and also qualified in deflection and misinformation, and the subversion of the mainstream media? Surely?
Hmm. So. Do I yet have a total handle on what is going on? Hell no. How could I? I’m just one guy. But, I can say this. One more time. None of what we are reading on the front pages is the full story. Not even.
Every fiber of my being. The same being that took twenty-seven years to uncover what I still believe to be massive political corruption in Great Britain. And it’s ok. No-one believes that, either.
That same being tells me that there is way more to this than meets the eye. Someone is trying to walk us down the garden path. I’m just not exactly sure who or why, or even which garden path.
People, here is the danger. If we keep grasping at every straw floating in the wind – http://cnn.it/2uNksJ8. Regardless of whether or not it represents a crime, or can be evidenced. We are going to lose.
We will undermine the real investigations. We will obscure the real story – http://bit.ly/2v8VRO6. We will sideline potential impeachment. And we will be laying the groundwork for a Trump victory in 2020.
We have to be cautious, judicious and realistic. More than that, we really should wait for those authorized to investigate to produce their conclusions.
There is a danger a large number of those inclined to support Trump are looking at this witch-hunt, and saying: what Don Jr. did in 2016 was opposition research then (http://bit.ly/2t0KBXx); and what the media are doing now is opposition research for 2020; so what?
FinCEN Data: The Real Evidence for Trump-Russia Racketeering?
At last. It isn’t that there is a connection between Trump-Russia money-laundering and Trump-Russia election collusion. It is that the inquiries into the collusion are potentially jeopardizing the ten-year FBI investigation into the money-laundering.
It is as simple as that. And now it appears that the FBI/Mueller may have found a way to start telling everyone publicly to back the f**k off the small fry. And leave the Big Fish to them.
Oh. And by-the-by, since all of the headlines in the US media this morning seem to think otherwise, Donald Jr. is a complete red herring.
Again, if you want to know more, listen to my interview on #TheOppermanReport.
And this right here is the problem with the reporting of Trump collusion with Russia. Congress and the media keep getting close, and then veer off. The only question for me is whether this is deliberate malfeasance or inadvertent stupidity. And the worst part is that, in this instance, with Donald Jr., the leads to the real story are actually in the media coverage.
1) Donald Jr. admits to the meeting. It would be the first time in the history of the known universe that a Trump has knowingly admitted to a crime. But, you say, he’s admitting one thing in order to hide the truly damaging truth. Yes. But not the truth the media thinks.
2) The Buzzfeed Dossier, the leak that apparently began this whole fandango, that dossier was allegedly compiled as opposition research for first Republican candidates and then the Clinton campaign, through meetings with Russians with known Kremlin connections. Um. What exactly is the difference?
3) Was a crime committed? The question, with respect, isn’t whether or not Donald Jr. met with anyone; whether that someone was a Russian lawyer; a Russian lawyer with connections to the Kremlin; something Donald Jr. knew before the meeting; knew because there was an e-mail; adoption was discussed, or not; damaging Clinton information was proffered, or not. The only relevant question is: was a crime committed?
I hate that I appear to be defending Donald Jr. I’m not. I’m suggesting the media get their collective head out of their a**. And follow the proffered clues to the real story. And those clues would be what? For starters, try researching the Magnitsky Act.
What, in short, is Magnitsky all about? Russian money-laundering. By corrupt Russian government officials and the Russian mob. In the billions. Through Latvian, Moldovan and Estonian banks (have a gander at Donald Jr. links to the Baltic International Bank, and you begin to get an idea of what is the real story here), and then to the City of London, and New York real estate.
Earlier this year, a New York court case against Russian front companies investing laundered Russian mob money in New York real estate was halted. Apparently by ‘political’ interests.
This court case was the New York end of the corruption behind the death of a Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky (the gentleman whose death led to the Magnitsky Act, the Act apparently discussed by Donald Jr. with his Russian lawyer).
There is no evidence yet about who halted that New York court case. But we know that the Manhattan US Attorney bringing the case, Preet Bharara, was summarily fired by Donald Trump on March 11, 2017.
We do know that Trump, his family, his business associates and the Trump Organization have been intimately entwined with elements of the Russian government and the Russian mob for the past thirty years.
And there are now increasing suggestions that the real concern of the FBI all along has been that the rather ineffectual inquiries into alleged Trump-Russia collusion over the US Presidential election in 2017 might obscure, even upend, the way more important ten-year FBI investigation into money-laundering for the Russians by Trump through New York real estate.
Oh. And one more time. If you want to know more. If you want names. If you want leads of your own to follow. Then listen to my interview on #TheOppermanReport. Or follow through some of the links in this post.
What Future for US Blue Collar Workers?
Just recently, I had a bit of a ding-dong about FB Friend and Democratic activist, #RonKlain, writing on CNN about the attractions of education after high school being a magnet for new Democratic voters.
Thank goodness for this CNN article, which talks about technical further education and re-training for those working sons and daughters who don’t want to go to an Ivy League red-brick.
The fact of the matter is that most of Europe and the US are now deeply post-industrial. As much as there may be thousands of blue collars who may hate that fact, it is the case.
Now, it may well be that politicians of all US parties were a little too quick in marching boldly into the globalist new dawn. While forgetting the left-behinds.
And it may well be that we have to backtrack a bit, and allow for a longer period of acclimatization. Which may itself require public funding.
But. At the end of the day. The new dawn is here. Whether we like it or not. That is going to require some serious rethinking about long-term US economic and educational policy-making.
1) De-stigmatizing vocational training. Sons and daughters of blue-collars have no desire to go to university. But, if the future, even after a period of transition, genuinely holds no more blue collar jobs for them. Then, they need retraining in areas for which they are qualified, with which they feel comfortable and where, quite bluntly, they will be happy.
2) Raising the profile of mutualism and co-operation. Encouraging and funding communities to set up their own, chosen and sustainable economic interests.
3) Accepting that, in this brave new world of emerging industrial economies, there may well be large swaths of the US population for whom ‘normal,’ traditional gainful activity is no longer available. And sensible people of all US political parties may have to begin discussing the notion of a guaranteed basic income.