Tone Vays comments at the latest Intraday BTC developments.
We are looking at three possible bullish long term scenarios for Bitcoin that long term investors should consider based on its historic volatility since August 2011.
The 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasted for 728 days and delivered 52515% gains to the coin.
The 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasted for 1057 days and delivered 12800% gains to the coin. That is 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run.
Assuming that the current bear market (2018/ 2019) will imitate the previous one (2014/ 2015) and make a bottom near Jan 28th at 2,686 (see this study here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BT...nd-projection/), then we can draw three speculative future scenarios for the next bull run.
This includes a more moderate but still strong bull run that is calculated by the growing rate at which the previous two (bull runs) evolved. The 2nd bull run was +45.19% in duration than the 1st, so assuming a +45.19% growth rate for the 3rd bull run, we can calculate a total duration of 1534 days. Adding to this parameter the fact that the 2nd bull run had 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run, we can assume that the 3rd will also deliver 4.10 times less gains than the 2nd, resulting into + 3121% of total gains = high at 86687.
This includes less aggressive but still extremely strong bull run identical to the 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasting also 1057 days and growing by 12800%. That translates to a market high of $372318.53 by the end of November 2021.
This includes an aggressive bull run identical to the 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasting also 728 days and growing by 52515%. That translates to a market high of $1455087.51 by the end of December 2020.
Note that those scenarios are just technical speculation based on the historic volatility available. There are many more fundamental factors to consider and this is why we are reviewing BTC on a daily basis. However bullish long term Bitcoin investors can have these scenarios in mind.
Update of the 4-years cycle of Bitcoin.
What about with the analysis of Average Convergence Divergence or shortened to MACD?
Medium-term short setup for an R/R > 7, on the (expanding range) corrective decline wave (5).
when can we expect a book/article describing your Elliott rules to count the price pattern correctly ?
Very soon, while it's still in the discovery stage and testing, trying to explain it simply in a book or two.
2. EW Alternation Rule between wave 2 and 4 from Mr. RN Elliott himself.
3. Wave C can be an impulse wave or an ending diagonal.
5. Synchronizing wave counts of multiple time frames.
In the mean time, read about them.
- Pieter Wuille, Bitcoin Core Developer and Co-Founder of Blockstream, discussed his recent Bitcoin Improvement Proposal regarding a new SegWit address format.
Hey, that was nice post to understand. I have thought that bitcoin is gone and now no one is thinking of it. Good one to learn.
- Bitcoin will never be gone, it is made with the elite by the elite for the elite and they're stacking it up.
- If they want it dead, it would have happened longtime ago, but they didn't.