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60d2798bef286f5055d44785

My Conversation with Elijah Millgram

divpelijah is one of my favorite contemporary philosophers here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeselijahmillgram target_blankthe audio video and transcripta  here is part of the summaryp blockquotepelijah joined tyler to discuss newcombs paradox the reason he doesnt have an opinion about everything the philosophy of dave barry style and simulation theory why philosophers arent often consulted about current events his best stories from taing for robert nozick the sociological correlates of knowing formal logic the question of whether people are more interested in truth or being interesting philosophical cycles what makes nietzsche important today the role that meaning can play in a persons personality and life mill on bentham the idea of true philosophy as dialogue the extent to which modern philosophers are truly philosophical why he views aesthetics as critical to philosophy and morepblockquote phere is one excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstrong a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprob target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprobnewcombs paradoxa are you a oneboxer or twoboxer and whyp pstrongmillgramstrong ive never been able to take a stand on that mostly because theres this moment in robert nozicks a relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7 target_blank datahrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7discussion of the newcomb paradoxa should we pause to tell the audience   p pstrongcowenstrong no no this is not for them this is for us they can google p pstrongmillgramstrong oh this is for us ok nozick said look heres what happens when you get a class or not even a class people talk about newcombs paradox some people end up having one view and some people end up having the other view each side has the argument for their own view but they dont have the explanation of whats wrong with the other argument then nozick says  and i think this is absolutely on target  it doesnt help to just repeat your own argument more slowly and more loudlyp psince i dont know whats wrong with the  whichever other argument it is i dont have a viewp pstrongcowenstrong if you dont have a view doesnt that by default put you close to the onebox position it means you dont consider the dominance principle selfevident because youre not sure that in fact youre getting more by opting for the two boxes quantum mechanics is weird aliens may be weirder yet you dont know what to do why not just take the slightly smaller prize and opt for one box not with extreme conviction but you would be a default mildly agnostic oneboxerp pstrongmillgramstrong who knows what i would do if somebody turned up and gave me the   p pbut let me say something a little bit to the meta level and then ill speak to the view that i would be a oneboxer i live in a world where i feel disqualified from a privilege that almost everybody around me has people are supposed to have opinions about all kinds of things they have opinions about politics and they have opinions about sports teams and they have opinions about who knows whatp pim in the very peculiar position of being in a job where im paid to have opinions i feel that i cant have opinions unless ive worked for them and i can back them up and that means that unless ive done my homework unless i have an argument for the opinion i dont have it  so i dontp pnow going back from the meta level kind of one level down lets stop and think about whats built into the   p pwhen you a relnoopener hrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategy target_blank datahrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategyexplain dominancea to a classroom you say look here are the different options you have and i guess the options are used to the column and here are the different states of the world and you can see that for each state of the world this option does better than that option so you should take   p ptheres a lot built into that already for example that the world is carved up into these different  the state space is carved up and your option space is carved up and you dont get to rethink recharacterize  the characterization of the things that you do is already given to you and its fixed its an idealizationp puntil the situation arrived and i had a chance to face it and think about it i wouldnt know whether to accept that idealization i know that sounds really coy but the principled view is that since i dont have an argument i dont have an opinionp blockquote precommended  and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwelijahmillgramnet target_blankelijahs home page and researchap divpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwithelijahmillgramhtmlmy conversation with elijah millgrama appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt 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divpelijah favorite contemporary philosophers relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeselijahmillgram target_blankthe audio video transcripta summaryp blockquotepelijah joined tyler discuss newcombs paradox reason doesnt opinion philosophy dave barry style simulation theory philosophers arent consulted current events best stories taing robert nozick sociological correlates knowing formal logic question people interested truth interesting philosophical cycles makes nietzsche important today role meaning play persons personality life mill bentham idea true philosophy dialogue extent modern philosophers truly philosophical views aesthetics critical philosophy morepblockquote phere excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstronga relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprob target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprobnewcombs paradoxa oneboxer twoboxer whyp pstrongmillgramstrongive able stand theres moment robert nozicksa relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7 target_blank datahrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7discussion newcomb paradoxa pause tell audiencep pstrongcowenstrongno googlep pstrongmillgramstrongoh ok nozick said look heres happens class class people talk newcombs paradox people end having view people end having view argument view dont explanation whats wrong argument nozick saysand think absolutely targetit doesnt help repeat argument slowly loudlyp psince dont know whats wrong thewhichever argument dont viewp pstrongcowenstrongif dont view doesnt default close onebox position means dont consider dominance principle selfevident youre sure fact youre getting opting boxes quantum mechanics weird aliens weirder dont know slightly smaller prize opt box extreme conviction default mildly agnostic oneboxerp pstrongmillgramstrongwho knows somebody turned gave thep pbut let little bit meta level ill speak view oneboxer live world feel disqualified privilege everybody people supposed opinions kinds things opinions politics opinions sports teams opinions knows whatp pim peculiar position job im paid opinions feel cant opinions ive worked means ive homework argument opinion dont itso dontp pnow going meta level kind level lets stop think whats built thep pwhen youa relnoopener hrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategy target_blank datahrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategyexplain dominanceato classroom look different options guess options column different states world state world option better option takep ptheres lot built example world carved differentthe state space carved option space carved dont rethink recharacterizethe characterization things given fixed idealizationp puntil situation arrived chance face think wouldnt know accept idealization know sounds coy principled view dont argument dont opinionp blockquote precommended relnoopener hrefhttpswwwelijahmillgramnet target_blankelijahs home page researchap divpthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwithelijahmillgramhtmlmy conversation elijah millgrama appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrmarginalrevolutionfeed4tscpcqrw8kq height1

60d2798bef286f5055d447c9

My Conversation with the very very smart David Deutsch

divpi think this episode came off as weird and testy as i described it to one friend but i like weird and testy  here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesdaviddeutsch target_blankthe audio video and transcripta  here is one excerptp blockquote pstrongcowen stronghow do you think the manyworlds interpretation of quantum mechanics relates to the view that just in terms of space the size of our current universe is infinite and therefore everything possible is happening in itp pstrongdeutsch strongit complicates the discussion of probability but theres no overlap between that notion of infinity and the everettian notion of infinity if we are infinite there because the emdifferentiationem as i prefer to call what used to be called splitting  when i perform an experiment which can go one of two ways the influence of that spreads out first i see it i may write it down i may write a scientific paper when i write a paper about it and report the results that will cause the journal to split or to differentiate into two journals and so on this influence cannot spread out faster than the speed of lightp pso an everett universe is really a misnomer because what we see in real life is an everett bubble within the universe everything outside the bubble is as it was its undifferentiated or to be exact its exactly as differentiated as it was before then as the bubble spreads out the universe becomes or the multiverse becomes more differentiated but the bubble is always finitep pstrongcowen stronghow do your views relate to the philosophical modal realism of a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewis target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewisdavid lewisap pstrongdeutsch strongthere are interesting parallels as a physicist im interested in what the laws of physics tell us is so rather than in philosophical reasoning about things unless they impinge on a problem that i have so yes im interested in for example the continuity of the self  whether if theres another version of me a very large number of lightyears away in an infinite universe and its identical is that really me are there two of me one of me i dont entirely know the answer to that its why i dont entirely know the answer to whether i would go in a emstar trekem transporterp pthe modal realism certainly involves a lot of things that i dont think exist  at least not physically im open to the idea that nonphysical things do exist like the natural numbers i think exist theres a difference between the second even prime which doesnt exist and the infinite number of prime numbers which i think do exist i think that there is more than one mode of existence but the theory that all modes of existence are equally real  i see no point in that the overlap between everett and david lewis is i think more coincidental than illuminatingp pstrongcowen strongif the universe is infinite and if david lewis is correct should i feel closer to the david lewis copies of me the copies or near copies of me in this universe or the near copies of me in the multiverse it seems very crowded all of a sudden something whose purpose was to be economical doesnt feel that way to me by the end of the metaphysicsp pstrongdeutsch strongit doesnt emfeelem like that to you    well a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1as wittgenstein is supposed to have saida i dont know whether he really did if it were true what emwouldem it feel like it would feel just like thisp blockquote pmuch more at the link  andp blockquote pstrongcowen strongare we living in a simulationp pstrongdeutsch strongno because living in a simulation is precisely a case of there being a barrier beyond which we cannot understand if were living in a simulation thats running on some computer we cant tell whether that computer is made of silicon or iron or whether it obeys the same laws of computation like a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachine target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachineturing computabilitya and a relnoopener hrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362 target_blank datahrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362quantum computabilitya and so on as ours we cant know anything about the physics therep pwell we can know that it is at least a superset of our physics but thats not saying very much its not telling us very much its a typical example of a theory that can be rejected out of hand for the same reason that the supernatural ones  if somebody says zeus did it then im going to say how should i respond if i take that on board how should i respond to the next person that comes along and tells me that odin did itp pstrongcowenstrong but it seems youre rejecting an empirical claim on methodological grounds and i get very suspicious philosophers typically reject transcendental arguments like oh we must be able to perceive reality because if we couldnt how could we know that we couldnt perceive reality it doesnt prove you can perceive reality rightp blockquote pand thisp blockquote pstrongcowen stronga few very practical questions to close given the way british elections seem to have been running that the tories win every time does that mean the errorcorrection mechanism of the british system of government now is weakerp pstrongdeutsch strongno unfortunately the  so as you probably know i favor the a relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepost target_blank datahrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepostfirstpastthepost systema in the purest possible form as it is implemented in britain i think that is the most errorcorrecting possible electoral system although i must add that the electoral system is only a tiny facet of the institutions of criticism and consent in general its just a tiny thing but it is the best onep pits not perfect it has some of the defects of for example proportional representation proportional representation has the defect that it causes coalitions all the time coalitions are badp pstrongcowen strongyou have a delegated monitor with the coalition right with a coalition say in the netherlands which is richer than the united kingdom you typically have coalition governments some parties in the coalition are delegated monitors of the other parties parties are better informed than voters isnt that a better popperian mechanism for error correctionp blockquote pi also tried to sum up what i think he is all about and he reacted with scorn  that was an excellent part of the conversation  and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommichael_nielsenstatus1400097799971115013 target_blanka good twitter thread from michael nielsena about the conversationp divpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwiththeveryverysmartdaviddeutschhtmlmy conversation with the very very smart david deutscha appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrmarginalrevolutionfeed4y1ja4qx9k8 height1

divpi think episode came weird testy described friend like weird testy relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesdaviddeutsch target_blankthe audio video transcripta excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstronghow think manyworlds interpretation quantum mechanics relates view terms space size current universe infinite possible happening itp pstrongdeutschstrongit complicates discussion probability theres overlap notion infinity everettian notion infinity infinite theemdifferentiationemas prefer called splittingwhen perform experiment ways influence spreads write write scientific paper write paper report results cause journal split differentiate journals influence spread faster speed lightp pso everett universe misnomer real life everett bubble universe outside bubble undifferentiated exact exactly differentiated bubble spreads universe multiverse differentiated bubble finitep pstrongcowenstronghow views relate philosophical modal realism ofa relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewis target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewisdavid lewisap pstrongdeutschstrongthere interesting parallels physicist im interested laws physics tell philosophical reasoning things impinge problem yes im interested example continuity selfwhether theres version large number lightyears away infinite universe identical dont entirely know answer dont entirely know answer aemstar trekemtransporterp pthe modal realism certainly involves lot things dont think existat physically im open idea nonphysical things exist like natural numbers think exist theres difference second prime doesnt exist infinite number prime numbers think exist think mode existence theory modes existence equally reali point overlap everett david lewis think coincidental illuminatingp pstrongcowenstrongif universe infinite david lewis correct feel closer david lewis copies copies near copies universe near copies multiverse crowded sudden purpose economical doesnt feel way end metaphysicsp pstrongdeutschstrongit doesntemfeelemlike wella relnoopener hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1as wittgenstein supposed saidai dont know true whatemwouldemit feel like feel like thisp blockquote pmuch link andp blockquote pstrongcowenstrongare living simulationp pstrongdeutschstrongno living simulation precisely case barrier understand living simulation thats running computer cant tell computer silicon iron obeys laws computation likea relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachine target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachineturing computabilityaanda relnoopener hrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362 target_blank datahrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362quantum computabilityaand cant know physics therep pwell know superset physics thats saying telling typical example theory rejected hand reason supernatural onesif somebody says zeus im going respond board respond person comes tells odin itp pstrongcowenstrongbut youre rejecting empirical claim methodological grounds suspicious philosophers typically reject transcendental arguments like oh able perceive reality couldnt know couldnt perceive reality doesnt prove perceive reality rightp blockquote pand thisp blockquote pstrongcowenstronga practical questions close given way british elections running tories win time mean errorcorrection mechanism british system government weakerp pstrongdeutschstrongno unfortunately theso probably know favor thea relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepost target_blank datahrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepostfirstpastthepost systemain purest possible form implemented britain think errorcorrecting possible electoral system add electoral system tiny facet institutions criticism consent general tiny thing best onep pits perfect defects example proportional representation proportional representation defect causes coalitions time coalitions badp pstrongcowenstrongyou delegated monitor coalition right coalition netherlands richer united kingdom typically coalition governments parties coalition delegated monitors parties parties better informed voters isnt better popperian mechanism error correctionp blockquote pi tried sum think reacted scorn excellent conversation relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommichael_nielsenstatus1400097799971115013 target_blanka good twitter thread michael nielsena conversationp divpthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwiththeveryverysmartdaviddeutschhtmlmy conversation smart david deutscha appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrmarginalrevolutionfeed4y1ja4qx9k8 height1

60dd5a057b17b52c881680e3

My Conversation with Richard Prum

divpprum is an ornithologist at yale here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesrichardprum target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is part of the summaryp blockquoteprichard joined tyler to discuss the infidelity of australian birds the debate on the origins of avian flight how the lack of a penis explains why birds are so beautiful why albatrosses can afford to take so many years to develop before mating the game theory of ornithology how flowers advertise themselves like a can of coke how modern technology is revolutionizing bird watching why hes probird feeders yet anti outdoor cats how scarcity predicts territoriality in birds his favorite bird artist how oilbirds got their name how falcons and cormorants hunt and fish with humans whether birds exhibit a g factor why birds have regional accents whether puffins will perish why hes not excited about the idea of trying to bring back passenger pigeons the dumb question that marks a talented perspective ornithologist and morepblockquote phere is one excerptp blockquote pstrongcowen strongputting path dependence aside if you were trying to give us the most fundamental explanation of why sexual dimorphism is different in birds compared to mammals what would that bep pstrongprum strongwell thats actually a emreallyem big question [laughs]p pstrongcowen strongof course but the most fundamental factor  what is itp pstrongprum strongthe most fundamental factor is that most birds dont have a penisp pstrongcowen strongtalk me through the equilibrium therep pstrongprum strong[laughs] theres a lot thats where we start most birds dont have a penis which means that one of the things that happens in avian evolution thats distinct from mammals is that the kids require a lot of care theyre growing up in the nest theyre hatching out of an egg but theyre very very vulnerable until they can flyp pbirds have a very rapid period of rapid development that means that they grow up and leave the nest and you need two parents to do that efficiently in most diets or most kinds of ecologies that means the dads got to be at the nestp pwe usually thought that you have social monogamy at least two birds helping raise the young because the young are so needy and they have to grow up quickly but theres another possibility which is that they could evolve to be so needy and grow up quickly embecauseem they managed to get males at the nestp pone of the things that happened in the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697phylogeny of birdsa  youve got ostriches and their relatives and youve got chickens and ducks and then youve got the rest of birds and thats a bunch thats the vast majority of them and in that lineage leading to the rest of birds the penis evolved away and the question is why my own theory is that female birds preferred mates that did not have a penisp pone of the ancillary benefits of that one of the correlated benefits of that is that they were no longer subject to sexual coercion or sexual violence they could be coerced behaviorally but they couldnt be forcibly fertilized that means that they have freedom of choice and what do they do with their freedom of choice a relnoopener hrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285 target_blank datahrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285they choose beautya one of the reasons why birds are so beautiful is that males dont have a penis they have to be subject to choice in order to effect reproduction and also they have to invest if females require itp pstrongcowen strongnow sometimes albatrosses dont breed until theyre 20 years old or even on average maybe its what  10 years old what are they doing in the meantime thats so importantp pstrongprum strongwell that is a deep questionp blockquote precommended this was one of my favorite cwt episodesp divpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwithrichardprumhtmlmy conversation with richard pruma appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrmarginalrevolutionfeed4rymgrlemd2a height1

divpprum ornithologist yale relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesrichardprum target_blankthe audio video transcripta summaryp blockquoteprichard joined tyler discuss infidelity australian birds debate origins avian flight lack penis explains birds beautiful albatrosses afford years develop mating game theory ornithology flowers advertise like coke modern technology revolutionizing bird watching hes probird feeders anti outdoor cats scarcity predicts territoriality birds favorite bird artist oilbirds got falcons cormorants hunt fish humans birds exhibit g factor birds regional accents puffins perish hes excited idea trying bring passenger pigeons dumb question marks talented perspective ornithologist morepblockquote phere excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstrongputting path dependence aside trying fundamental explanation sexual dimorphism different birds compared mammals bep pstrongprumstrongwell thats actually aemreallyembig question [laughs]p pstrongcowenstrongof course fundamental factorwhat itp pstrongprumstrongthe fundamental factor birds dont penisp pstrongcowenstrongtalk equilibrium therep pstrongprumstrong[laughs] theres lot thats start birds dont penis means things happens avian evolution thats distinct mammals kids require lot care theyre growing nest theyre hatching egg theyre vulnerable flyp pbirds rapid period rapid development means grow leave nest need parents efficiently diets kinds ecologies means dads got nestp pwe usually thought social monogamy birds helping raise young young needy grow quickly theres possibility evolve needy grow quicklyembecauseemthey managed males nestp pone things happened thea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697phylogeny birdsayouve got ostriches relatives youve got chickens ducks youve got rest birds thats bunch thats vast majority lineage leading rest birds penis evolved away question theory female birds preferred mates penisp pone ancillary benefits correlated benefits longer subject sexual coercion sexual violence coerced behaviorally couldnt forcibly fertilized means freedom choice freedom choicea relnoopener hrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285 target_blank datahrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285they choose beautya reasons birds beautiful males dont penis subject choice order effect reproduction invest females require itp pstrongcowenstrongnow albatrosses dont breed theyre 20 years old average maybe what10 years old meantime thats importantp pstrongprumstrongwell deep questionp blockquote precommended favorite cwt episodesp divpthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwithrichardprumhtmlmy conversation richard pruma appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrmarginalrevolutionfeed4rymgrlemd2a height1

60ef7428375b1898198db929

My Conversation with Alexander the Grate

phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesalexanderthegrate target_blankthe audio video and transcripta recorded outside in sw washington dc  and no that is not a typo he does call himself alexander the grate his real name shall remain a secret  here is the event summaryp blockquote palexander the grate has spent 40 years  more than half of his life  living on the streets and heating grates of washington dc he prefers the label nfa no fixed address rather than homeless since in his view were all a little bit homeless even millionaires are just one catastrophe away from losing their mansions its a life that certainly comes with many challenges but that hasnt stopped him from enjoying the immense cultural riches of the capital he and his friends have probably attended more lectures foreign films concerts talks and tours at local museums than many of its wealthiest denizens the result is a perspective as unique as the city itselfp palexander joined tyler to discuss the littlerecognized issue of toilet insecurity how covid19 affected his lifestyle the hierarchy of local shelters the origins of the cootie game the difference between being nfa in dc versus other cities how networking helped him navigate life as a new nfa how the capitol hill freebie finders fellowship got started why he loves school field trip season his most memorable freebie food experience the reason he isnt enthusiastic about a universal basic income the economic sword of damocles he sees hanging over america how local development is changing dc his design for a better community shelter and morep blockquote pandp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongwhats the best food you end up with where is it from whats an a for a food dayp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyou want my classification systemp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen stronglets hear it absolutely im a foodie toop p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongokay youre jumping around toop p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongyes this is the point of the podcast this is the jumparound podcastp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyeah but lets consummate one thought at a time theres some cool stuff here fun stuff alright thats the beginning of the bums banquet for those that are not fully acclimatized we had astrong strongclassification system this is a class a it hasnt even been taken out of its wrapper class b maybe theres one bite tyo trim your own we found some of it still in its wrapper double a would be from the hand of the person donating to us triple a would still be hotp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongwhats a d cp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongonly the rats know that a lot of forks here but well keep it to the general stuff first anyway after hours at the picnic tables of the [library of congress] madison building thats where this happened eightfoot diameter tables so we could fit 10 people around there that was a continuation of the freebie finders and the bums banquet and all thatp p dataselectableparagraphbut one more thing about the lunches were an overfed population the affluent society are you really hungry three times a day its a luxury to have that many when people have to hesitate what am i going to eat now truth to tell i dont really need it but its become a tradition a tradition of the affluent we dont need to eat as much as we do its more habit than anythingp p dataselectableparagraphbut the kids the juniorhigh kids throwing their lunch away they didnt know that at the bottom of the bag their mamma left a napkin with a stick figure on it saying hi hope youre having a good time in dc love mom mothers love comes along with a peanut butter sandwich but under the napkin is up to 2 in change or bills for drink money [laughs] so theres cash left behind there toop p dataselectableparagraphalright lets back up a few tangents here man you have a lot of things out on the floor herep p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen stronga lot of things going balls being juggledp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphandp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongsome economists i know have promoted the idea its called universal basic income and its something like every person would get 10000 including nfas is this a good ideap p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyes finland okay save that for that because im going to ask you p p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongyou can ask me your question now but also just indicate if you think thats a good idea bad idea in between and then you ask me yoursp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongalright i want to ask you just the answer national debt this was before the multitrilliondollar relief bills had been signed into law by the presidentp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongcorrectp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate stronga progressive algorithm no doubt but i dont know if theyll factor in if its the fiveyear plan for the 5 trillion and theyll add 1 trillion automatically to this amount but its pushing 30 trillion which is what you can scan this quick 84000 for every man woman and child in americap p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongso youre a fiscal conservativep p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongim just an observer at this point the point is i see this number and i see a sword of damocles hanging over the economic head of america i know a lot of its built in but theoretically if all this came due catastrophically overnight do we have a planp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphrecommended you wont find many podcast episodes like this one  it is noteworthy that alexander has a better and bigger vocabulary than the median cwt guest  also this is one episode where listening and reading are especially different due to the ambient sounds alexanders comments on the passing trains and so on parts are beckettesquep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107myconversationwithalexanderthegratehtmlmy conversation with alexander the gratea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

phere relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesalexanderthegrate target_blankthe audio video transcripta recorded outside sw washington dc typo alexander grate real shall remain secret event summaryp blockquote palexander grate spent 40 yearsmore half lifeliving streets heating grates washington dc prefers label nfa fixed address homeless view little bit homeless millionaires catastrophe away losing mansions life certainly comes challenges hasnt stopped enjoying immense cultural riches capital friends probably attended lectures foreign films concerts talks tours local museums wealthiest denizens result perspective unique city itselfp palexander joined tyler discuss littlerecognized issue toilet insecurity covid19 affected lifestyle hierarchy local shelters origins cootie game difference nfa dc versus cities networking helped navigate life new nfa capitol hill freebie finders fellowship got started loves school field trip season memorable freebie food experience reason isnt enthusiastic universal basic income economic sword damocles sees hanging america local development changing dc design better community shelter morep blockquote pandp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongwhats best food end whats food dayp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongyou want classification systemp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstronglets hear absolutely im foodie toop p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongokay youre jumping toop p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongyes point podcast jumparound podcastp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongyeah lets consummate thought time theres cool stuff fun stuff alright thats beginning bums banquet fully acclimatized astrongstrongclassification system class hasnt taken wrapper class b maybe theres bite tyo trim found wrapper double hand person donating triple hotp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongwhats d cp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongonly rats know lot forks general stuff hours picnic tables [library congress] madison building thats happened eightfoot diameter tables fit 10 people continuation freebie finders bums banquet thatp p dataselectableparagraphbut thing lunches overfed population affluent society hungry times day luxury people hesitate going eat truth tell dont need tradition tradition affluent dont need eat habit anythingp p dataselectableparagraphbut kids juniorhigh kids throwing lunch away didnt know bag mamma left napkin stick figure saying hi hope youre having good time dc love mom mothers love comes peanut butter sandwich napkin 2 change bills drink money [laughs] theres cash left toop p dataselectableparagraphalright lets tangents man lot things floor herep p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstronga lot things going balls juggledp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphandp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongsome economists know promoted idea called universal basic income like person 10000 including nfas good ideap p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongyes finland okay save im going ask p p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongyou ask question indicate think thats good idea bad idea ask yoursp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongalright want ask answer national debt multitrilliondollar relief bills signed law presidentp p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongcorrectp p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestronga progressive algorithm doubt dont know theyll factor fiveyear plan 5 trillion theyll add 1 trillion automatically pushing 30 trillion scan quick 84000 man woman child americap p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowenstrongso youre fiscal conservativep p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander gratestrongim observer point point number sword damocles hanging economic head america know lot built theoretically came catastrophically overnight planp blockquote p dataselectableparagraphrecommended wont find podcast episodes like noteworthy alexander better bigger vocabulary median cwt guest episode listening reading especially different ambient sounds alexanders comments passing trains parts beckettesquep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107myconversationwithalexanderthegratehtmlmy conversation alexander gratea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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My Conversation with Andrew Sullivan

phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesandrewsullivan target_blankthe audio video and transcripta  here is part of the overviewp blockquotepandrew joined tyler to discuss the role of the aids epidemic in achieving marriage equality the difficulty of devoutness in everyday life why public intellectuals often lack courage how being a gay man helps him access perspectives he otherwise wouldnt how drugs influence his ideas the reasons why hes a passionate defender of sats and iq tests what niall ferguson and boris johnson were like as fellow undergraduates what americans get wrong about british politics why so few people share his admiration for margaret thatcher why bowie was so special why emairplaneem is his favorite movie what oakeshottian conservatism offers us today whether wokeism has a positive influence globally why he someday hopes to glower at the sea from in the west of ireland and morepblockquote pand here is one excerptp blockquote pstrongsullivan strongwell and so you get used to real conversations about people and you dont mistake credentials for intelligence you realize that people outside of the system may be more perceptive about whats going wrong with it than people buried within it i honestly find life more interesting the more variety of people you get to know and meet and that means from all sorts of different ways of lifep pthe good thing about being gay i will tell you is that that happens more often than if youre straight  because its a great equalizer you are more likely to come across someone who really is from a totally different socioeconomic group than you are through sexual and romantic attraction and indeed the existence of this subterranean world that is taken from every other particular class and structure than you would if you just grew up in a straight world where you didnt have to question these things and where your social life was bound up with your work or with your professional peersp pthe idea for me of dating someone in my office would be absolutely bizarre for example i cant believe all these straight people that just look around them and say oh lets get married whereas gay people have this immense social system that can throw up anybody from any way of life into your social circlep blockquote pinteresting throughout  and again here is andrews new book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomoutlimbselectedwriting19892021dp150115589xrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsandrewsullivanqid1628685510sr81 target_blankout on a limb selected writing 19892021ap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myconversationwithandrewsullivanhtmlmy conversation with andrew sullivana appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

phere relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesandrewsullivan target_blankthe audio video transcripta overviewp blockquotepandrew joined tyler discuss role aids epidemic achieving marriage equality difficulty devoutness everyday life public intellectuals lack courage gay man helps access perspectives wouldnt drugs influence ideas reasons hes passionate defender sats iq tests niall ferguson boris johnson like fellow undergraduates americans wrong british politics people share admiration margaret thatcher bowie special whyemairplaneemis favorite movie oakeshottian conservatism offers today wokeism positive influence globally someday hopes glower sea west ireland morepblockquote pand excerptp blockquote pstrongsullivanstrongwell real conversations people dont mistake credentials intelligence realize people outside system perceptive whats going wrong people buried honestly find life interesting variety people know meet means sorts different ways lifep pthe good thing gay tell happens youre straightbecause great equalizer likely come totally different socioeconomic group sexual romantic attraction existence subterranean world taken particular class structure grew straight world didnt question things social life bound work professional peersp pthe idea dating office absolutely bizarre example cant believe straight people look oh lets married gay people immense social system throw anybody way life social circlep blockquote pinteresting andrews new book relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomoutlimbselectedwriting19892021dp150115589xrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsandrewsullivanqid1628685510sr81 target_blankout limb selected writing 19892021ap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myconversationwithandrewsullivanhtmlmy conversation andrew sullivana appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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That was then, this is now, climate change edition the median voter theorem remains underrated

blockquotephigher gasoline costs if left unchecked risk harming the ongoing global recovery the price of crude oil has been higher than it was at the end of 2019 before the onset of the pandemic while opec recently agreed to production increases these increases will not fully offset previous production cuts that opec imposed during the pandemic until well into 2022 at a critical moment in the global recovery this is simply not enough president biden has made clear that he wants americans to have access to affordable and reliable energy including at the pump although we are not a party to a datalinknamein body link hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancombusinessopec datacomponentautolinkedtagopeca the united states will always speak to international partners regarding issues of significance that affect our national economic and security affairs in public and privatepblockquote pthat is uma relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomcommentisfree2021aug12pushingoilproductionusjoebidenkillingclimatepledges target_blanknot from the trump administrationa ratherp ppigou club getting smallerp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thatwasthenthisisnowclimatechangeeditionthemedianvotertheoremremainsunderratedhtmlthat was then this is now climate change edition the median voter theorem remains underrateda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotephigher gasoline costs left unchecked risk harming ongoing global recovery price crude oil higher end 2019 onset pandemic opec recently agreed production increases increases fully offset previous production cuts opec imposed pandemic 2022 critical moment global recovery simply president biden clear wants americans access affordable reliable energy including pump party toa datalinknamein body link hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancombusinessopec datacomponentautolinkedtagopeca united states speak international partners issues significance affect national economic security affairs public privatepblockquote pthat uma relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomcommentisfree2021aug12pushingoilproductionusjoebidenkillingclimatepledges target_blanknot trump administrationa ratherp ppigou club getting smallerp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thatwasthenthisisnowclimatechangeeditionthemedianvotertheoremremainsunderratedhtmlthat climate change edition median voter theorem remains underrateda appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61159eaa21e7fdae5c6a2fe0

Fluvoxamine seems to work against Covid-19

blockquote datawidth500 classtwittertweet datadnttrue p langen dirltrinterim results of a hrefhttpstwittercomtogethertrialref_srctwsrc5etfwtogethertriala of ivermectin and fluvoxamine for early treatment of a hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagcovid_19srchashref_srctwsrc5etfwcovid_19a a hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagivermectinsrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwivermectina no significant effecta hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagfluvoxaminesrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwfluvoxaminea risk of hospitalization by 31brthese important results deserve a 1n a hrefhttpstcoosy1p91hs2httpstcoosy1p91hs2ap p julien potet julienpotet a hrefhttpstwittercomjulienpotetstatus1425751466271195137ref_srctwsrc5etfwaugust 12 2021apblockquote pp pthat is from a project funded by fast grantsp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108fluvoxamineseemstoworkagainstcovid19htmlfluvoxamine seems to work against covid19a appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquote datawidth500 classtwittertweet datadnttrue p langen dirltrinterim results hrefhttpstwittercomtogethertrialref_srctwsrc5etfwtogethertriala ivermectin fluvoxamine early treatment hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagcovid_19srchashref_srctwsrc5etfwcovid_19a hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagivermectinsrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwivermectina significant effecta hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagfluvoxaminesrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwfluvoxaminea risk hospitalization 31brthese important results deserve 1n hrefhttpstcoosy1p91hs2httpstcoosy1p91hs2ap p julien potet julienpotet hrefhttpstwittercomjulienpotetstatus1425751466271195137ref_srctwsrc5etfwaugust 12 2021apblockquote pp pthat project funded fast grantsp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108fluvoxamineseemstoworkagainstcovid19htmlfluvoxamine work covid19a appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61159ee621e7fdae5c6a2fe6

The TGA is Worse than the FDA, and the Australian Lockdown

pi have been highly critical of the fda but in australia the fda is almost a model to be emulated steven hamilton and richard holden a hrefhttpswwwafrcompolicyhealthandeducationoncovid19themedicalregulatorycomplexhasfailedus20210809p58hawdo not mince wordsap blockquotepat the end of 2020 as vaccines were rolling out en masse in the northern hemisphere the tga [therapeutic goods administration at] flatly refused to issue the emergency authorisations other regulators did as a result the tga didnt approve the pfizer vaccine until january 25 more than six weeks after the us food and drug administration fda itself not exactly the poster child of expeditiousnessp psimilarly the tga didnt approve the astrazeneca vaccine until february 16 almost seven weeks after the ukp pin case youre wondering what difference does six weeks make think again were our rollout six weeks faster the current sydney outbreak would likely never have exploded saving many lives and livelihoods in the face of an exponentially spreading virus that has become twice as infectious six weeks is an eternity and indeed nothing has changed the tga approved the moderna vaccine this week eight months after the fdap pit approved looser cold storage requirements for the pfizer vaccine which would allow the vaccine to be more widely distributed and reduce wastage on april 8 six weeks after the fda and it approved the pfizer vaccine for use by 12 to 15yearolds on july 23 more than 10 weeks after the fdap pand then theres the tgas staggering decision not to approve inhome rapid tests over reliability concerns despite their widespread approval and use overseasp pwheres the approval of the mixandmatch vaccine regimen used to great effect in canada where astrazeneca is combined with pfizer to expand supply and increase efficacy wheres the guidance for those whove received two doses of astrazeneca that theyll be able to receive a pfizer booster laterp pin the aftermath of the pandemic when almost all of us should be fully vaccinatedthere will be ample opportunity to figure out exactly who is to blame for whatp pbut the slow insular and excessively cautious advice of our medical regulatory complex which comprehensively failed to grasp the massive consequences of delay and inaction must be right at the top of that listpblockquote pyou might be tempted to argued that the tga can afford to take its time since covid hasnt been as bad in australia as in the united states but that would be to ignore the costs of the australian lockdownp particle 13 of the a hrefhttpswwwunorgenaboutusuniversaldeclarationofhumanrightsuniversal declaration of human rightsa states thatp blockquote ol lieveryone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each stateli lieveryone has the right to leave any country including his own and to return to his countryli ol blockquote pa hrefhttpscovid19homeaffairsgovauleavingaustraliaaustralia has now violated each and every clause of this universal human righta and seemingly without much debate or objection it is deeply troubling to see people prevented from leaving or entering their own country and a hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58021718soldiers in the streeta making sure people do not travel beyond a perimeter surrounding their homes the costs of lockdown are very high and thus so is any delay in ending these unprecedented infringements on libertyp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thetgaisworsethanthefdaandtheaustralianlockdownhtmlthe tga is worse than the fda and the australian lockdowna appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pi highly critical fda australia fda model emulated steven hamilton richard holden hrefhttpswwwafrcompolicyhealthandeducationoncovid19themedicalregulatorycomplexhasfailedus20210809p58hawdo mince wordsap blockquotepat end 2020 vaccines rolling en masse northern hemisphere tga [therapeutic goods administration at] flatly refused issue emergency authorisations regulators result tga didnt approve pfizer vaccine january 25 weeks food drug administration fda exactly poster child expeditiousnessp psimilarly tga didnt approve astrazeneca vaccine february 16 seven weeks ukp pin case youre wondering difference weeks think rollout weeks faster current sydney outbreak likely exploded saving lives livelihoods face exponentially spreading virus twice infectious weeks eternity changed tga approved moderna vaccine week months fdap pit approved looser cold storage requirements pfizer vaccine allow vaccine widely distributed reduce wastage april 8 weeks fda approved pfizer vaccine use 12 15yearolds july 23 10 weeks fdap pand theres tgas staggering decision approve inhome rapid tests reliability concerns despite widespread approval use overseasp pwheres approval mixandmatch vaccine regimen great effect canada astrazeneca combined pfizer expand supply increase efficacy wheres guidance whove received doses astrazeneca theyll able receive pfizer booster laterp pin aftermath pandemic fully vaccinatedthere ample opportunity figure exactly blame whatp pbut slow insular excessively cautious advice medical regulatory complex comprehensively failed grasp massive consequences delay inaction right listpblockquote pyou tempted argued tga afford time covid hasnt bad australia united states ignore costs australian lockdownp particle 13 hrefhttpswwwunorgenaboutusuniversaldeclarationofhumanrightsuniversal declaration human rightsa states thatp blockquote ol lieveryone right freedom movement residence borders stateli lieveryone right leave country including return countryli ol blockquote pa hrefhttpscovid19homeaffairsgovauleavingaustraliaaustralia violated clause universal human righta seemingly debate objection deeply troubling people prevented leaving entering country hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58021718soldiers streeta making sure people travel perimeter surrounding homes costs lockdown high delay ending unprecedented infringements libertyp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thetgaisworsethanthefdaandtheaustralianlockdownhtmlthe tga worse fda australian lockdowna appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

611c537c2654b3ac01ebf2c0

Biden’s most heartless betrayal

pive been clear president joe biden a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtmltolda the american people on monday that human rights must be the centre of our foreign policy not the periphery but the way to do it is not through endless military deployments its with our diplomacy our economic tools and rallying the world to join usp pas i listened to those words i found myself admiring the political skill of bidens speechwriters and despising their utter callousness i wanted to shout at the tv but what about the a relnoopener hrefhttpsdataworldbankorgindicatorsppoptotlfeinlocationsafmost_recent_value_descfalse target_blank19 million womena now sentenced by american foreign policy to a life of darkness under the taliban surely they deserve human rights toop pdo you seriously expect anyone to believe that american diplomacy will make the taliban treat women fairly is rallying the world remotely likely to keep afghan girls in schools or allow women to walk down the streets of kabul with their faces uncovered do you take us all for foolsp divdiv pthe biden administrations cool calculated and yet incompetent abandonment of the afghan people stems from two core problemsp pthe first is a failure of imagination biden claimed to have planned for every contingency so did he not consider evacuating the afghans who qualified for special immigrant visas and their families an estimated a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomworld20210816afghanswhohelpedwestleftlimboevacuationturnschaotic target_blank800000 individualsa before withdrawing all us special forces was the pandemonium at the airport so very hard to foreseep pon a larger scale there was a massive failure to imagine what american interests in the region are how to protect them and what the repercussions of ignoring them could be a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtml target_blankto bidena americas only vital national interest in afghanistan [is] preventing a terrorist attack on american homeland this is shortsightedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages1204741868scalede16290370942841024x6081300x178jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarh5can the taliban bring peaceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspanbyspan aris roussinosapdivadiv pin reality this chaotic humiliating withdrawal significantly increases the risk of a terror attack on the us homeland aside from revealing a dysfunctional american foreign policy apparatus in intelligence terms afghanistan is now a black hole even if we are able to extricate some of our afghan intelligence assets the us has lost a key source of information on jihadist activityp pa little bit more imagination would also have revealed how china iran and other current adversaries will likely use the afghan fiasco to their advantage did the president not consider how his actions in afghanistan could embolden xi jinpings dream of a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldchinachinasxipledgesreunificationwithtaiwanpartysbirthday20210701 target_blankreunificationa with taiwan  is the us now in a stronger or weaker negotiating position with regard to the iranian regime did the president project enough power this week to convince his russian counterpart to crack down on the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorg202107091014512241russiancyberattackspresentseriousthreattous target_blankransomware attacks that appear to emanate from his territoryap pand what about our allies will india trust the us as the leading partner of the quad along with australia and japan designed to check the growing power of china how about our european partners and the transatlantic alliancep pthe second problem informing bidens approach concerns the moral decay of western civilisation when a fish decays the head rots first the same can be said for the west weve become so focused on microaggressions in america that we have lost sight of the emmacroaggressionsem happening to women around the worldp pin my latest book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwharpercollinscomproductspreyayaanhirsialivariant32126595203106 target_blankempreyema i argue that the modernday feminist movement in the west does not take seriously the concerns of women in workingclass communities many of whom have immigrant backgrounds and who face a steady rise of sexual harassment and assault on the streets of their own neighbourhoodsp pin todays perverse american culture however more attention is devoted to the use of preferred gender pronouns than to the plight of women whose most basic rights to education personal autonomy the right to be present in a public space are either removed or under serious threatp pwhat weve witnessed this week in afghanistan is a watershed moment in western decline american culture today tells us not to be proud of our country not to believe in the superiority of american values not to promote the rights we are afforded by our constitution so that they can be enjoyed by people around the worldp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108f43fr3gr3g4e16291313319521300x154jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarh5the west has lost its virtueh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspanbyspan paul kingsnorthapdivadiv pwhen rights are promoted they tend to be progressive interpretations weve reached a point where we proudly flew the lgbt flag from our a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlgbtqnationcom202106usembassiesflownprideflagantilgbtqcountriesearthyear target_blankembassy in kabula when the going was good but have now abandoned afghanistans gay population to the taliban meanwhile a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnavymilcnoprofessionalreadingprogramsailors target_blankthe us navys reading lista now includes books such as emsexual minorities and politics emand emhow to be an antiracistem both of which paint a bleak picture of the united states its history and its identityp phow then can we hope to defend the basic rights of women and minorities elsewhereem emamerican selfconfidence has morphed into nihilism were all talk and no action beyond retreat that is why womens rights activists interpreters and anyone who has worked with the american people have been forced to hide in afghanistan while the taliban go a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomfrudbezhanstatus1427214496444162049 target_blankdoortodoor looking for themap pwhat will now happen to the women of afghanistan when asked if womens rights will be respected the taliban governor of the andar district in ghazni province mawlavey kamiil a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvljn7kifjqqit4s target_blanksaida we assure this to people all over the world especially the people of afghanistan islam has given rights to everyone equally women have their own rights how much islam has given rights to women we will give them that much similarly a member of the talibans cultural commission enamullah samangani has a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewsweekcomfemaleanchorsdefytalibancontinuingpresentafghanistannewschannel1620053 target_blankpromiseda that women should be in the government structure according to sharia lawp pthis caveat is important women will only have the rights afforded to them by islam under orthodox sharia law women can inherit property but not at the same level as men generally half as much women can testify in court but their testimony is not equal to a mans word women have a right to divorce under specific circumstances but not a unilateral right as men have a male guardian is essential for a woman a woman can have one husband whereas a man can have up to four wivesp pyet the texts of sharia law do not fully capture the brutal reality of daily life for women under a regime like the talibans in the last period of taliban rule which ended with the invasion of 2001 women were forced to wear the burka when outside if they were allowed to leave the house at all they were not educated in any meaningful sense other than in some cases the most basic religious education they were forced into marriages often as young girls with men who used them as chattels brutal punishments for small transgressions made women little better than slavesp pwe must not forget a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorgsectionsthetwoway20101013130527903bibiaishadisfiguredafghanwomanfeaturedontimecovervisitsus target_blankbibi aishaa who was featured on the cover of emtimeem magazine in 2010 as a young woman she attempted to escape from her abusive husband whom she had been forced to marry but when the taliban caught her they had her ears and nose chopped off or malala yousafzai who was shot in 2012 by a taliban fighter because she dared to advocate for girls educationp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages475256249scalede16272289313921024x5601300x164jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarh5americas spiteful foreign policyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspanbyspan ayaan hirsi aliapdivadiv pnow the taliban are claiming that women and girls will be able to continue their education as long as they wear full burkas taliban spokesperson suhail shaheen a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsavworldasia58223530 target_blankexplaineda that the policy is that women can have access to education and to work however the reality for afghan women seems rather different they are now for example barely to be seen on the a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjohnbermanstatus1427582623845601281s12 target_blankstreets of afghan citiesap pyes the modernised taliban has done some media training but we should not be fooled the islamic emirate of afghanistan will be governed by the same draconian sharia law as the taliban regime of the past a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhindustantimescomworldnewstalibanasksforlistofgirlswidowstobemarriedtotheirfightersreports101626413987086html target_blankreportsa are already emerging of girls being taken as child brides with the taliban ordering local religious leaders to give them a list of girls over 15 years of age and widows under 45 to marry their fightersp pwomens faces are being a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbusinessinsidercomkabulsalonposterswomenpaintedovertalibanarrival20218 target_blankwhitewasheda from billboards throughout kabul women in kandahar a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificafghanwomenbankersforcedrolestalibantakescontrol20210813 target_blankhave been tolda not to return to their jobs at azizi bank and that instead male relatives could take their place in a small village in the faryan province the taliban a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnncom20210817asiaafghanistanwomentalibanintlhnkdstindexhtml target_blankknocked on doors and demanded to be feda if women protested they were beaten and even killed this is just the beginningp pover the last several days ive wept bitter tears for the women and girls whose futures are now blighted through no fault of their own i have felt an overwhelming sense of impotence even as i have personally tried to help get vulnerable people out of kabul but this sense of impotence is now giving way to a feeling of anger and of renewed purposep pwe have to do better we have to solve this disease of moral decay within our own society and improve our imaginative skills american decline is not inevitable it is a choice standing by our allies is a choice standing up for human rights is a choicep phaving blundered into this wholly predictable mess biden has no option but to fight until every american is safely out of afghanistan but he cant stop there he should throw his weight behind saving every afghan who has risked life and limb for america he needs to get womens rights activists and leaders out of the countryp pthe islamic emirate of afghanistan may be the future for afghanistan but it will cant be the future for the brave people who risked their lives to fight barbarityp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108bidensmostheartlessbetrayalappcommentsview commentsa

pive clear president joe biden hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtmltoldathe american people monday human rights centre foreign policy periphery way endless military deployments diplomacy economic tools rallying world join usp pas listened words found admiring political skill bidens speechwriters despising utter callousness wanted shout tv thea relnoopener hrefhttpsdataworldbankorgindicatorsppoptotlfeinlocationsafmost_recent_value_descfalse target_blank19 million womenanow sentenced american foreign policy life darkness taliban surely deserve human rights toop pdo seriously expect believe american diplomacy taliban treat women fairly rallying world remotely likely afghan girls schools allow women walk streets kabul faces uncovered foolsp divdiv pthe biden administrations cool calculated incompetent abandonment afghan people stems core problemsp pthe failure imagination biden claimed planned contingency consider evacuating afghans qualified special immigrant visas families estimateda relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomworld20210816afghanswhohelpedwestleftlimboevacuationturnschaotic target_blank800000 individualsa withdrawing special forces pandemonium airport hard foreseep pon larger scale massive failure imagine american interests region protect repercussions ignoring bea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtml target_blankto bidena americas vital national interest afghanistan [is] preventing terrorist attack american homeland shortsightedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages1204741868scalede16290370942841024x6081300x178jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarh5can taliban bring peaceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspanbyspan aris roussinosapdivadiv pin reality chaotic humiliating withdrawal significantly increases risk terror attack homeland aside revealing dysfunctional american foreign policy apparatus intelligence terms afghanistan black hole able extricate afghan intelligence assets lost key source information jihadist activityp pa little bit imagination revealed china iran current adversaries likely use afghan fiasco advantage president consider actions afghanistan embolden xi jinpings dream aa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldchinachinasxipledgesreunificationwithtaiwanpartysbirthday20210701 target_blankreunificationawith taiwan stronger weaker negotiating position regard iranian regime president project power week convince russian counterpart crack thea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorg202107091014512241russiancyberattackspresentseriousthreattous target_blankransomware attacks appear emanate territoryap pand allies india trust leading partner quad australia japan designed check growing power china european partners transatlantic alliancep pthe second problem informing bidens approach concerns moral decay western civilisation fish decays head rots said west weve focused microaggressions america lost sight theemmacroaggressionsemhappening women worldp pin latest booka relnoopener hrefhttpswwwharpercollinscomproductspreyayaanhirsialivariant32126595203106 target_blankempreyema argue modernday feminist movement west seriously concerns women workingclass communities immigrant backgrounds face steady rise sexual harassment assault streets neighbourhoodsp pin todays perverse american culture attention devoted use preferred gender pronouns plight women basic rights education personal autonomy right present public space removed threatp pwhat weve witnessed week afghanistan watershed moment western decline american culture today tells proud country believe superiority american values promote rights afforded constitution enjoyed people worldp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108f43fr3gr3g4e16291313319521300x154jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarh5the west lost virtueh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspanbyspan paul kingsnorthapdivadiv pwhen rights promoted tend progressive interpretations weve reached point proudly flew lgbt flag oura relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlgbtqnationcom202106usembassiesflownprideflagantilgbtqcountriesearthyear target_blankembassy kabulawhen going good abandoned afghanistans gay population talibanmeanwhile relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnavymilcnoprofessionalreadingprogramsailors target_blankthe navys reading listanow includes books asemsexual minorities politicsemandemhow antiracistem paint bleak picture united states history identityp phow hope defend basic rights women minorities elsewhereememamerican selfconfidence morphed nihilism talk action retreat womens rights activists interpreters worked american people forced hide afghanistan taliban relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomfrudbezhanstatus1427214496444162049 target_blankdoortodoor looking themap pwhat happen women afghanistan asked womens rights respected taliban governor andar district ghazni province mawlavey kamiila relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvljn7kifjqqit4s target_blanksaidawe assure people world especially people afghanistan islam given rights equally women rights islam given rights women similarly member talibans cultural commission enamullah samangani hasa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewsweekcomfemaleanchorsdefytalibancontinuingpresentafghanistannewschannel1620053 target_blankpromiseda women government structure according sharia lawp pthis caveat important women rights afforded islam orthodox sharia law women inherit property level men generally half women testify court testimony equal mans word women right divorce specific circumstances unilateral right men male guardian essential woman woman husband man wivesp pyet texts sharia law fully capture brutal reality daily life women regime like talibans period taliban rule ended invasion 2001 women forced wear burka outside allowed leave house educated meaningful sense cases basic religious education forced marriages young girls men chattels brutal punishments small transgressions women little better slavesp pwe forget relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorgsectionsthetwoway20101013130527903bibiaishadisfiguredafghanwomanfeaturedontimecovervisitsus target_blankbibi aishaa featured cover emtimeem magazine 2010 young woman attempted escape abusive husband forced marry taliban caught ears nose chopped malala yousafzai shot 2012 taliban fighter dared advocate girls educationp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages475256249scalede16272289313921024x5601300x164jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarh5americas spiteful foreign policyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspanbyspan ayaan hirsi aliapdivadiv pnow taliban claiming women girls able continue education long wear burkas taliban spokesperson suhail shaheena relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsavworldasia58223530 target_blankexplaineda policy women access education work reality afghan women different example barely seen relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjohnbermanstatus1427582623845601281s12 target_blankstreets afghan citiesap pyes modernised taliban media training fooled islamic emirate afghanistan governed draconian sharia law taliban regime past relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhindustantimescomworldnewstalibanasksforlistofgirlswidowstobemarriedtotheirfightersreports101626413987086html target_blankreportsaare emerging girls taken child brides taliban ordering local religious leaders list girls 15 years age widows 45 marry fightersp pwomens faces beinga relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbusinessinsidercomkabulsalonposterswomenpaintedovertalibanarrival20218 target_blankwhitewashedafrom billboards kabul women kandahara relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificafghanwomenbankersforcedrolestalibantakescontrol20210813 target_blankhave tolda return jobs azizi bank instead male relatives place small village faryan province talibana relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnncom20210817asiaafghanistanwomentalibanintlhnkdstindexhtml target_blankknocked doors demanded feda women protested beaten killed beginningp pover days ive wept bitter tears women girls futures blighted fault felt overwhelming sense impotence personally tried help vulnerable people kabul sense impotence giving way feeling anger renewed purposep pwe better solve disease moral decay society improve imaginative skills american decline inevitable choice standing allies choice standing human rights choicep phaving blundered wholly predictable mess biden option fight american safely afghanistan cant stop throw weight saving afghan risked life limb america needs womens rights activists leaders countryp pthe islamic emirate afghanistan future afghanistan cant future brave people risked lives fight barbarityp hrefhttpsunherdcom202108bidensmostheartlessbetrayalappcommentsview commentsa

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More reasons to use #NewRoaring20s unironically

pi hope new roaring twenties becomes a hashtag more like greatstagnation rather than infrastructureweek and by that i mean newroaring20s becomes sincere shorthand for describing something real and important rather than something that could have been important but turned into a joke well until recently that isp psome evidence for that former scenario can be found in a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210818usproductivityboom target_blankthe us could be on the verge of a productivity boom a gamechanger for the economya by ace washington post reporter heather long after highlighting the recent upsurge in the productivity stats labor productivity grew 43 percent in the first quarter and 23 percent in the second versus an annual average of just 12 percent since the global financial crisis long explains why some analysts think a level of acceleration might stick around the optimism this time derives partly from congress and the white house taking steps to make significant investments in physical and digital infrastructure and partly from the coronavirus pandemic forcing rapid and widespread adoption of the digital economy robots and artificial intelligencep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpslh4googleusercontentcomfqa0qzu6dqvsisicj1ulmrvvipannnwlopflmvjvjvejikaq5_xcqe2xoxb_x1rjauydjttkfu6zsy3rkqs72aencgge1ti9jrnevzzqhinptzammixfjnbwaepqv2izy6rlytfigure pone of the many interesting bits of evidence in longs richly reported piece highlights how ai machine learning is diffusing more widely into the economy she notes for example that california software company cadence design systems recently unveiled a new software dubbed cerebrus meant to make microchip engineers more productive longp blockquote classwpblockquotepon a recent call with wall street analysts cadence executives said cerebrus makes chip engineers 10 times more productive the kind of gain that could ultimately lower chip costs not to mention getting faster turnaround for new products i believe cerebrus is a fundamental breakthrough said anirudh devgan president of cadence design systems on a recent earnings callpblockquote pcerebrus is a good example of ai complementing workers and making them more productive rather than merely replacing workers i would also point out that the phenomenon being described here by long is a big reason why economist and productivity optimist erik brynjolfsson thinks productivity growth over the next decade will exceed consensus forecasts as he recently a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpslongbetsorg868 target_blankexplaineda in long bet with economist and productivity pessimist robert gordonp blockquote classwpblockquotepai is a generalpurpose technology that is affecting almost every industry while accelerating the pace of discovery recent breakthroughs in machine learning will boost productivity in areas as diverse as biotech and medicine energy technologies retailing finance manufacturing and professional services the productivity benefits of generalpurpose technologies typically take years to show up in the official statistics in fact productivity is initially suppressed as organizations invest time and effort creating intangible assets like new business processes new skills new goods and new services however later these investments are harvested boosting productivity the result is a productivity jcurve recent research indicates that are approaching the rising part of the productivity jcurve for the ai and related technologiespblockquote pnot surprisingly perhaps i urge policymakers to assume this is a productivity blip rather than a boom as they think about policies from immigration to environmental regulation to research investmentp p divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicssomereasonsforfaster2020sproductivitygrowthsome reasons for faster 2020s productivity growtha a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsalongbetonfasterproductivitygrowthandanewroaringtwentiesa long bet on faster productivity growth and a new roaring twentiesa a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgarticlesbidensbudgetpredictstheroaringtwentieswillendin2022uhohbidens budget predicts the roaring twenties will end in 2022 uh ohapdiv br pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons to use newroaring20s unironicallya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

pi hope new roaring twenties hashtag like greatstagnation infrastructureweek mean newroaring20s sincere shorthand describing real important important turned joke recently isp psome evidence scenario found relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210818usproductivityboom target_blankthe verge productivity boom gamechanger economya ace washington post reporter heather long highlighting recent upsurge productivity stats labor productivity grew 43 percent quarter 23 percent second versus annual average 12 percent global financial crisis long explains analysts think level acceleration stick optimism time derives partly congress white house taking steps significant investments physical digital infrastructure partly coronavirus pandemic forcing rapid widespread adoption digital economy robots artificial intelligencep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpslh4googleusercontentcomfqa0qzu6dqvsisicj1ulmrvvipannnwlopflmvjvjvejikaq5_xcqe2xoxb_x1rjauydjttkfu6zsy3rkqs72aencgge1ti9jrnevzzqhinptzammixfjnbwaepqv2izy6rlytfigure pone interesting bits evidence longs richly reported piece highlights ai machine learning diffusing widely economy notes example california software company cadence design systems recently unveiled new software dubbed cerebrus meant microchip engineers productive longp blockquote classwpblockquotepon recent wall street analysts cadence executives said cerebrus makes chip engineers 10 times productive kind gain ultimately lower chip costs mention getting faster turnaround new products believe cerebrus fundamental breakthrough said anirudh devgan president cadence design systems recent earnings callpblockquote pcerebrus good example ai complementing workers making productive merely replacing workers point phenomenon described long big reason economist productivity optimist erik brynjolfsson thinks productivity growth decade exceed consensus forecasts recently relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpslongbetsorg868 target_blankexplaineda long bet economist productivity pessimist robert gordonp blockquote classwpblockquotepai generalpurpose technology affecting industry accelerating pace discovery recent breakthroughs machine learning boost productivity areas diverse biotech medicine energy technologies retailing finance manufacturing professional services productivity benefits generalpurpose technologies typically years official statistics fact productivity initially suppressed organizations invest time effort creating intangible assets like new business processes new skills new goods new services later investments harvested boosting productivity result productivity jcurve recent research indicates approaching rising productivity jcurve ai related technologiespblockquote pnot surprisingly urge policymakers assume productivity blip boom think policies immigration environmental regulation research investmentp p divpstronglearn stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicssomereasonsforfaster2020sproductivitygrowthsome reasons faster 2020s productivity growtha hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsalongbetonfasterproductivitygrowthandanewroaringtwentiesa long bet faster productivity growth new roaring twentiesa hrefhttpswwwaeiorgarticlesbidensbudgetpredictstheroaringtwentieswillendin2022uhohbidens budget predicts roaring twenties end 2022 uh ohapdiv br pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons use newroaring20s unironicallya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

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What should I ask Ed Glaeser?

phe has a new book out with david cutler namely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationap pi will be doing a joint cwt with them sequentially rather than simultaneous  so what should i ask ed glaeser  there is a separate post for suggestions for cutlerp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskedglaeserhtmlwhat should i ask ed glaesera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

phe new book david cutler relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival city living thriving age isolationap pi joint cwt sequentially simultaneous ask ed glaeser separate post suggestions cutlerp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskedglaeserhtmlwhat ask ed glaesera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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What should I ask David Cutler?

phe has a new book out with ed glaeser namely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationap pi will be doing a joint cwt with them sequentially rather than simultaneous  so what should i ask david cutler  there is a separate post for suggestions for glaeserp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskdavidcutlerhtmlwhat should i ask david cutlera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

phe new book ed glaeser relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival city living thriving age isolationap pi joint cwt sequentially simultaneous ask david cutler separate post suggestions glaeserp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskdavidcutlerhtmlwhat ask david cutlera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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A reader’s wishes for Covid coverage

pfrom my emailp pin the last 1819 months why have these stories not been writtenbr        why no stories on hospice care in the united states relating to covid19 statistics hospice has been removed from our common lexicon ive asked you this before i knowbr        why no stories on the earnings of publicly held life insurance companies br        why no stories about strategies written about the myriad of home health care providers in this country what is their role in lessening hospital stays in the last 18 months did they play a rolebr        why know detailed explanation of how excess deaths are calculated what are the excess death estimates for the next 5 years i assume the data is easily foundbr        no actuaries providing keen information and insightsbr        detailed investigations and stories of the traveling nurse industry   i know several interesting stories to say the least mostly regarding compensationbr        no keen insights from the coroners industry the inexact science of cause of death in the last 100 yearsp pwould love you thoughts on my questions and why have there been no stories about the abovep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108areaderswishesforcovidcoveragehtmla readers wishes for covid coveragea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pfrom emailp pin 1819 months stories writtenbr stories hospice care united states relating covid19 statistics hospice removed common lexicon ive asked knowbr stories earnings publicly held life insurance companies br stories strategies written myriad home health care providers country role lessening hospital stays 18 months play rolebr know detailed explanation excess deaths calculated excess death estimates 5 years assume data easily foundbr actuaries providing keen information insightsbr detailed investigations stories traveling nurse industry know interesting stories compensationbr keen insights coroners industry inexact science cause death 100 yearsp pwould love thoughts questions stories abovep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108areaderswishesforcovidcoveragehtmla readers wishes covid coveragea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Those new service sector jobs? — drive your own kid to school

blockquotepbus drivers are in such short supply that eastside charter school in wilmington del is offering parents 700 to drop off and pick up their children for the school yearpblockquote pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210816schoolshortagesbusdriverscounselorscomputer target_blankthe articlea is interesting throughout  it turns out there is a shortage of bus drivers a shortage of buses with working ac chip issues and some schools are flush with cash due to government stimulusp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thosenewservicesectorjobsdriveyourownkidtoschoolhtmlthose new service sector jobs drive your own kid to schoola appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepbus drivers short supply eastside charter school wilmington del offering parents 700 drop pick children school yearpblockquote pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210816schoolshortagesbusdriverscounselorscomputer target_blankthe articlea interesting turns shortage bus drivers shortage buses working ac chip issues schools flush cash government stimulusp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thosenewservicesectorjobsdriveyourownkidtoschoolhtmlthose new service sector jobs drive kid schoola appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Slow economists, crowding each other out

blockquoteppublishing in economics proceeds much more slowly on average than in the natural sciences and more slowly than in other social sciences and finance it is even relatively slower at the extremes we demonstrate that much of the lag especially at the extremes arises from authors dilatory behavior in revising their work the marginal product of an additional round of resubmission at the top economics journals is productive of additional subsequent citations but conditional on resubmission journals taking more time is not productive and authors spending more time is associated with reduced scholarly impact we offer several proposals to speed up the publication process these include norevisions policies limits on authors time revising articles and limits on editors waiting for dilatory refereespblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29147fromrss target_blankthe full papera by aboozar hadavand daniel s hamermesh and wesley w wilson  and from lester r lusher winnie yang and scott e carrell here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29153fromrss target_blanka related studyap blockquoteppublishing takes a long time in economics consequently many authors release working versions of their papers using data on the nber working paper series we show that the dissemination of economics research suffers from an overcrowding problem an increase in the number of weekly released working papers on average reduces downloads abstract views and media attention for each paper subsequent publishing and citation outcomes are harmed as well furthermore descriptive evidence on viewership and downloads suggests working papers significantly substitute for the dissemination function of publication these results highlight inefficiencies in the dissemination of economic research even among the most exclusive working paper series and suggest large social losses due to the slow publication processpblockquote pis less attention for each paper necessarily a bad thingp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108sloweconomistscrowdingeachotherouthtmlslow economists crowding each other outa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquoteppublishing economics proceeds slowly average natural sciences slowly social sciences finance relatively slower extremes demonstrate lag especially extremes arises authors dilatory behavior revising work marginal product additional round resubmission economics journals productive additional subsequent citations conditional resubmission journals taking time productive authors spending time associated reduced scholarly impact offer proposals speed publication process include norevisions policies limits authors time revising articles limits editors waiting dilatory refereespblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29147fromrss target_blankthe papera aboozar hadavand daniel s hamermesh wesley w wilson lester r lusher winnie yang scott e carrell relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29153fromrss target_blanka related studyap blockquoteppublishing takes long time economics consequently authors release working versions papers data nber working paper series dissemination economics research suffers overcrowding problem increase number weekly released working papers average reduces downloads abstract views media attention paper subsequent publishing citation outcomes harmed furthermore descriptive evidence viewership downloads suggests working papers significantly substitute dissemination function publication results highlight inefficiencies dissemination economic research exclusive working paper series suggest large social losses slow publication processpblockquote pis attention paper necessarily bad thingp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108sloweconomistscrowdingeachotherouthtmlslow economists crowding outa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Who Wrecked Afghanistan?

hrimg altwho wrecked afghanistan srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202108desertjpgphtml herepphow did it all go wrong jennifer brick murtazashvili a leading scholar of afghanistan joins damir and shadi to dissect the talibans victory and discuss what it tells us about the failures of americas nationbuilding effort why did the afghan government collapse so quickly have the technocrats and ngos in the democracy promotion industry been completely discredited and for the sake of the afghan people should we now help the taliban succeed in governing the country things get heatedppmurtazashvili is director of the center for governance and markets and associate professor at the university of pittsburgh and the author of ema hrefhttpswwwamazoncominformalorderafghanistanjennifermurtazashvilidp1107534585refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsinformalorderandthestateinafghanistanqid1629341396sbookssr11informal order and the state in afghanistana emshe lived in afghanistan for 3 years conducting fieldwork in rural villages across the country and previously worked at the us agency for international development and the afghanistan research and evaluation unit  ppemrecommended readingempullijen murtazashvili a hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcompolitics20210728northernafghanistanoncekeptouttalibanwhyhasitfallensoquicklythistimein the emwashington postemaliliquotafghanistan is not the balkansquot by thomas barfield a hrefhttpswwwresearchgatenetpublication309781126_afghanistan_is_not_the_balkans_ethnicity_and_its_political_consequence_from_a_central_asian_perspectiveresearchgatealiliemafghanistan a cultural and political historyem by thomas barfield a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomafghanistanculturalpoliticalprincetonpoliticsdp0691154414amazonalilia hrefhttpstwittercomshadihamidstatus1428025114642325505s20nassim taleba on the talibans refusal to deadliftliliquota hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcominternationalarchive201804terrorismgovernancereligion556817utm_sourcegltwwhen terrorists and criminals govern better than governmentsaquot by shadi hamid vanda felbabbrown and harold trinkunas emthe atlanticemliulhrpif youre not yet a paid member now is a great time to subscribe which you can do a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivesubscribeherea for a few dollars a month pp a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdsliveportalsignup target_blankappyoull also get access to our paywalled a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivefriday_essaysfriday essaysa as well as to special memberonly conversations with guests like glenn greenwald ross douthat and sohrab ahmari p

hrimg altwho wrecked afghanistan srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202108desertjpgphtml herepphow wrong jennifer brick murtazashvili leading scholar afghanistan joins damir shadi dissect talibans victory discuss tells failures americas nationbuilding effort afghan government collapse quickly technocrats ngos democracy promotion industry completely discredited sake afghan people help taliban succeed governing country things heatedppmurtazashvili director center governance markets associate professor university pittsburgh author ema hrefhttpswwwamazoncominformalorderafghanistanjennifermurtazashvilidp1107534585refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsinformalorderandthestateinafghanistanqid1629341396sbookssr11informal order state afghanistana emshe lived afghanistan 3 years conducting fieldwork rural villages country previously worked agency international development afghanistan research evaluation unit ppemrecommended readingempullijen murtazashvili hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcompolitics20210728northernafghanistanoncekeptouttalibanwhyhasitfallensoquicklythistimein emwashington postemaliliquotafghanistan balkansquot thomas barfield hrefhttpswwwresearchgatenetpublication309781126_afghanistan_is_not_the_balkans_ethnicity_and_its_political_consequence_from_a_central_asian_perspectiveresearchgatealiliemafghanistan cultural political historyem thomas barfield hrefhttpswwwamazoncomafghanistanculturalpoliticalprincetonpoliticsdp0691154414amazonalilia hrefhttpstwittercomshadihamidstatus1428025114642325505s20nassim taleba talibans refusal deadliftliliquota hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcominternationalarchive201804terrorismgovernancereligion556817utm_sourcegltwwhen terrorists criminals govern better governmentsaquot shadi hamid vanda felbabbrown harold trinkunas emthe atlanticemliulhrpif youre paid member great time subscribe hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivesubscribeherea dollars month pp hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdsliveportalsignup target_blankappyoull access paywalled hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivefriday_essaysfriday essaysa special memberonly conversations guests like glenn greenwald ross douthat sohrab ahmari p

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How to think about third doses

pthe immediate topic is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcoviddatasciencecompostisraelidatahowcanefficacyvsseverediseasebestrongwhen60ofhospitalizedarevaccinated target_blankhow to interpret the israeli dataa  important and mostly good news relatively speaking that is  i am reluctant to excerpt for fear of misleading you please do read through the complexity  simpsons paradoxp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howtothinkaboutthirddoseshtmlhow to think about third dosesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthe immediate topic relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcoviddatasciencecompostisraelidatahowcanefficacyvsseverediseasebestrongwhen60ofhospitalizedarevaccinated target_blankhow interpret israeli dataa important good news relatively speaking reluctant excerpt fear misleading read complexity simpsons paradoxp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howtothinkaboutthirddoseshtmlhow think dosesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

611eda4af50d6f279653f5fa

Who are the most rational people?

pa relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomarticle101007s11109019095790 target_blankfrom john a doces and amy wolaverap blockquotepwe examine the question of rationality replicating two core experiments used to establish that people deviate from the rational actor model our analysis extends existing research to a developing country context based on our theoretical expectations we test if respondents make decisions consistent with the rational actor framework experimental surveys were administered in cte divoire and ghana two developing countries in west africa focusing on issues of risk aversion and framing findings indicate that respondents make decisions more consistent with the rational actor model than has been found in the developed world extending our analysis to test if the differences in responses are due to other demographic differences between the african samples and the united states we replicated these experiments on a nationally representative analysis in the us finding results primarily consistent with the seminal findings of irrationality in the us and cte divoire highly educated people make decisions that are less consistent with the rational model while lowincome respondents make decisions more consistent with the rational model the degree to which people are iirrationali thus is contextual possibly western and not nearly as universal as has been concludedpblockquote pspeculative and not replicated but the point remains of definite interest  via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupforwhomthebelltolls target_blankkevin lewisap p p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whoarethemostrationalpeoplehtmlwho are the most rational peoplea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomarticle101007s11109019095790 target_blankfrom john doces amy wolaverap blockquotepwe examine question rationality replicating core experiments establish people deviate rational actor model analysis extends existing research developing country context based theoretical expectations test respondents decisions consistent rational actor framework experimental surveys administered cte divoire ghana developing countries west africa focusing issues risk aversion framing findings indicate respondents decisions consistent rational actor model found developed world extending analysis test differences responses demographic differences african samples united states replicated experiments nationally representative analysis finding results primarily consistent seminal findings irrationality cte divoire highly educated people decisions consistent rational model lowincome respondents decisions consistent rational model degree people areiirrationalithus contextual possibly western nearly universal concludedpblockquote pspeculative replicated point remains definite interest excellent relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupforwhomthebelltolls target_blankkevin lewisap pp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whoarethemostrationalpeoplehtmlwho rational peoplea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Don’t blame testosterone for male violence

pwhen he appeared on channel 4s emafter darkem to discuss do men have to be violent with radical feminist kate millett actor oliver reed was drunk a woman will never ever forgive a man if he fucks her he explained you are the receivers you take our seed look after our babies and well go do the hunting for youp pit was 1991 the height of the gulf war and the debate on militarism masculine stereotypes and violence towards women was punctuated with references to testosterone at one point after he had nipped to the loo and topped up his glass reed leant over to kiss millett much to her disgust leading one male guest to pronounce a man can never have too much [testosterone]p pin her new book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone the story of the hormone that dominates and divides usema carole hooven explores how the hormone is often presented as both a justification and excuse for male dominance over women women have far lower levels of testosterone so it has often been argued that housework and childrearing come naturally to them men on the other hand are programmed to be hellbent on impregnating as many women as possible fighting off male rivals and dragging a carcass home for dinnerp pbut as hooven acknowledges in her fascinating book despite the undeniable effect of the hormone on our behaviour how we relate to others is based on evolving and complex external forcesp pboth sexes produce testosterone though men create up to twenty times more testosterone then is at the heart of the nature versus nurture debate for feminists it is our culture rather than hormones that most influences gendered behaviours there are for instance enough studies which show that women enjoy a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomlifeandstyle2018oct13astronglibidoandboredbymonogamythetruthaboutwomenandsex target_blankplenty of sexa and risk on par with the most testosteronefuelled menp pits the same with male and female behaviour neither of which can be reduced to binary a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvo1tfbk3971s target_blankken and barbiea stereotypes as a lesbian and gender nonconforming feminist i know this only too well when i rejected traditional female toys and dress i was frequently told i had too much testosterone and that was what made me a tomboy even into adult life i have lost count of the times i have been told im a lesbian or that i will grow a beard and never feel a desire to reproduce because i have too much testosteronep pits a load of nonsense but it raises an important question how is it that the genetic and hormonal components of sex can create two distinctly different reproductive systems and yet human male and female behaviour shows itself to be flexible diverse and often surprisingly similarp phoovers expertise is in natural sciences and biological anthropology and the answer she suggests is that testosterone might strongly influence how we behave too much of it can make males more aggressive and those with raised levels often end up taking too many risks so they tend to crash and burnp pthat may seem logical but it does not explain violence against women or rape as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcordeliafinecom target_blankcordelia finea author of the acclaimed emtestosterone rex em2017 points out most men are emnotem violent which leaves a hole in the theory that testosterone drives behaviourp pnevertheless if we are to properly understand sex differences we still need to educate ourselves about testosterone crucially the controversy around trans women in sport namely that going through male puberty results not just in far higher levels of tesosterone but also greater bone and muscle mass is tackled headon by hoover you may be wondering if natural variation in t [testosterone] levels has anything to do with being transgender in the first place she writes and given what we know about testosterone thats a logical question the answer is we dont knowp pindeed hooven found that there is not much relation between higher testosterone levels and performance among professional athletes when compared to others of the same sex between the two sexes however the link is very much stronger and this is because t levels are dramatically higher in males and have a lot to do with the fact that they are stronger faster and more aggressive than the vast majority of their female counterparts that is of course why we have sexsegregated sports in the first placep pif we accept that testosterone can cause aggression in males and change behaviour which hooven does should it be used as an excuse in cases of male sexual assault no says hooven because even behaviour related to biology is not hardwired and unchangeable even if biology is a factor in social ill it does not make it determinedp pyet it is disappointing that hooven relies on questionable data to challenge the reality of male violence for example in picking apart the trope that male violence towards women is inevitable because it is hormonedriven she looks to the violence perpetrated by women on male partners and concludes that with caveats women are as likely to be violent to male partners as viceversa but less likely to kill i have campaigned to end violence towards women and girls for 40 years and every bit of a relnoopener hrefhttpwwwrefugeorgukfilesstatisticsdomesticviolenceandgenderpdf target_blankevidencea from around the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsroomfactsheetsdetailviolenceagainstwomen target_blankworlda concludes this is simply not the casep pbut how much does testosterone affect the way men emviewem women one example hooven relies on is that of trans man griffin hansbury and his reaction to t injections during the early days of his transitionp blockquotepi remember walking up fifth avenue and there was a woman walking in front of me says hansbury and she was wearing this little skirt and this little top and i was looking at her ass and i kept saying to myself dont look at it dont look at it and i kept looking at it and i walked past her and this voice in my head kept saying turn around to look at her breasts it was like being in a pornographic movie house in my mind and i couldnt turn it off i could not turn it off everything i looked at everything i touched turned to sexpblockquote pwhile even i a hardline social constructionist concede that testosterone can cause strange behaviour and be as potent as oestrogen is for females i strongly suspect there are other explanations for his behaviour surely for example we should put at least emsome emof it down to the privilege and arrogance afforded to men including trans menp pafter all hansbury is still living in a world where male entitlement and lack of punishment can lead to the dehumanising and oversexualisation of women hansburys testosteroneinduced journey from his previous life as a selfdescribed butch dyke who used to perform poetry about street harassment cannot be blamed on t alonep pas hooven observes to bring about changes in male behaviour it is not necessary to depress testosterone changes in attitudes and culture can do that all by themselves she is right even if the likes of oliver reed may suggest otherwisep a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolenceappcommentsview 16 commentsa

pwhen appeared channel 4s emafter darkemto discuss domenhave violent radical feminist kate millett actoroliver reedwas drunk woman forgive man fucks explained receivers seed look babies hunting youp pit 1991 height gulf war debate militarism masculine stereotypes violence women punctuated references testosterone point nipped loo topped glass reed leant kiss millett disgust leading male guest pronounce man [testosterone]p pin new book relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone story hormone dominates divides usema carole hooven explores hormone presented justification excuse male dominance women women far lower levels testosterone argued housework childrearing come naturally men hand programmed hellbent impregnating women possible fighting male rivals dragging carcass home dinnerp pbut hooven acknowledges fascinating book despite undeniable effect hormone behaviour relate based evolving complex external forcesp pboth sexes produce testosterone men create times testosterone heart nature versus nurture debate feminists culture hormones influences gendered behaviours instance studies women enjoy relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomlifeandstyle2018oct13astronglibidoandboredbymonogamythetruthaboutwomenandsex target_blankplenty sexa risk par testosteronefuelled menp pits male female behaviour reduced binary relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvo1tfbk3971s target_blankken barbiea stereotypes lesbian gender nonconforming feminist know rejected traditional female toys dress frequently told testosterone tomboy adult life lost count times told im lesbian grow beard feel desire reproduce testosteronep pits load nonsense raises important question genetic hormonal components sex create distinctly different reproductive systems human male female behaviour shows flexible diverse surprisingly similarp phoovers expertise natural sciences biological anthropology answer suggests testosterone strongly influence behave males aggressive raised levels end taking risks tend crash burnp pthat logical explain violence women rape relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcordeliafinecom target_blankcordelia finea author acclaimed emtestosterone rex em2017 points men emnotem violent leaves hole theory testosterone drives behaviourp pnevertheless properly understand sex differences need educate testosterone crucially controversy trans women sport going male puberty results far higher levels tesosterone greater bone muscle mass tackled headon hoover wondering natural variation t [testosterone] levels transgender place writes given know testosterone thats logical question answer dont knowp pindeed hooven found relation higher testosterone levels performance professional athletes compared sex sexes link stronger t levels dramatically higher males lot fact stronger faster aggressive vast majority female counterparts course sexsegregated sports placep pif accept testosterone cause aggression males change behaviour hooven excuse cases male sexual assault says hooven behaviour related biology hardwired unchangeable biology factor social ill determinedp pyet disappointing hooven relies questionable data challenge reality male violence example picking apart trope male violence women inevitable hormonedriven looks violence perpetrated women male partners concludes caveats women likely violent male partners viceversa likely kill campaigned end violence women girls 40 years bit relnoopener hrefhttpwwwrefugeorgukfilesstatisticsdomesticviolenceandgenderpdf target_blankevidencea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsroomfactsheetsdetailviolenceagainstwomen target_blankworlda concludes simply casep pbut testosterone affect way men emviewem women example hooven relies trans man griffin hansbury reaction t injections early days transitionp blockquotepi remember walking fifth avenue woman walking says hansbury wearing little skirt little looking ass kept saying dont look dont look kept looking walked past voice head kept saying turn look breasts like pornographic movie house mind couldnt turn turn looked touched turned sexpblockquote pwhile hardline social constructionist concede testosterone cause strange behaviour potent oestrogen females strongly suspect explanations behaviour surely example emsome emof privilege arrogance afforded men including trans menp pafter hansbury living world male entitlement lack punishment lead dehumanising oversexualisation women hansburys testosteroneinduced journey previous life selfdescribed butch dyke perform poetry street harassment blamed t alonep pas hooven observes bring changes male behaviour necessary depress testosterone changes attitudes culture right likes oliver reed suggest otherwisep hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolenceappcommentsview 16 commentsa

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*Against White Feminism*

blockquotepin emzero dark thirtyem and the truish story behind it american feminism once a movement that existed in opposition to the state as a critique of its institutions and mores was recast as one that served the states interests through any means imaginable this identification with state interests and the idea of going out to conquer the world with the same mindset of subjugation and domination possessed by white men seems to have become a warped feminist goal put another way white women wanted parity with white men any at any cost including by avidly taking on the domination of black and brown peoplepblockquote pthat is from the new and noteworthy a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomagainstwhitefeminismnotesdisruptionebookdpb08l6x1ytmrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsagainstwhitefeminismqid1629422492sr81 target_blankagainst white feminism notes on disruptiona by rafia zakaria  or how about thisp blockquotepsecurofeminism thus bound white american feminism to the neoimperial and neoliberal project of nationbuilding around the world one that harvard professor niall ferguson had articulated in his history of angloglobalization proposing that young americans should be taught to go overseas and transform other nations in their own image much as britain had done  caught in its fevers american feminists did not question loudly enough the wisdom of exporting feminism through bombs and dronespblockquote porp blockquotepwhite feminists in the colonial era were all about spreading their civilized ways but neocolonial white feminists want to illustrate their courage and compassion often while providing moral subsidy for cruelties inflicted in feminisms name times may have changed but the commitment of whiteness to extracting value wherever it can and dominating the narrative to frame this extraction as benevolence persistspblockquote precommended sort of  and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpslithubcomhowthewaronterrorbecameamericasfirstfeministwar target_blankthe author with more detail on securofeminismap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108againstwhitefeminismhtmlagainst white feminisma appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepin emzero dark thirtyem truish story american feminism movement existed opposition state critique institutions mores recast served states interests means imaginable identification state interests idea going conquer world mindset subjugation domination possessed white men warped feminist goal way white women wanted parity white men cost including avidly taking domination black brown peoplepblockquote pthat new noteworthy relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomagainstwhitefeminismnotesdisruptionebookdpb08l6x1ytmrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsagainstwhitefeminismqid1629422492sr81 target_blankagainst white feminism notes disruptiona rafia zakaria thisp blockquotepsecurofeminism bound white american feminism neoimperial neoliberal project nationbuilding world harvard professor niall ferguson articulated history angloglobalization proposing young americans taught overseas transform nations image britain caught fevers american feminists question loudly wisdom exporting feminism bombs dronespblockquote porp blockquotepwhite feminists colonial era spreading civilized ways neocolonial white feminists want illustrate courage compassion providing moral subsidy cruelties inflicted feminisms times changed commitment whiteness extracting value dominating narrative frame extraction benevolence persistspblockquote precommended sort relnoopener hrefhttpslithubcomhowthewaronterrorbecameamericasfirstfeministwar target_blankthe author detail securofeminismap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108againstwhitefeminismhtmlagainst white feminisma appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The Most Impressive AI Demo I Have Ever Seen

pthis is jawdropping it starts slow but watch the whole thing i dont think i would have been more amazed had i witnessed the first flight of the wright brothersp piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedsguccjhtmgyversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108themostimpressiveaidemoihaveeverseenhtmlthe most impressive ai demo i have ever seena appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthis jawdropping starts slow watch thing dont think amazed witnessed flight wright brothersp piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedsguccjhtmgyversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108themostimpressiveaidemoihaveeverseenhtmlthe impressive ai demo seena appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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U.S.A. fact of the day

blockquotepaccording to one recent measure ninetythree of the top one hundred american television programs watched live across a single year have been sports related  more people watched the super bowl than the oscars emmys grammys golden globes and tonys emcombinedempblockquote pit is for this reason that i find it puzzling when some people simply are not interested in sports at all  i find the sports are just stupid attitude defensible though it is not my view but that would in turn seem to make sports all the more interestingp pthat is from jonah lehrers a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommysteryseductionstrategyjonahlehrerebookdpb08ldv4rbrrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsjonahlehrerqid1629415076sr81 target_blankmystery a seduction a strategy a solutiona just published by simon and schusterp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108usafactoftheday9htmlusa fact of the daya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepaccording recent measure ninetythree american television programs watched live single year sports related people watched super bowl oscars emmys grammys golden globes tonys emcombinedempblockquote pit reason find puzzling people simply interested sports find sports stupid attitude defensible view turn sports interestingp pthat jonah lehrers relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommysteryseductionstrategyjonahlehrerebookdpb08ldv4rbrrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsjonahlehrerqid1629415076sr81 target_blankmystery seduction strategy solutiona published simon schusterp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108usafactoftheday9htmlusa fact daya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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They had better hurry up and distribute those AstraZeneca doses

blockquotepmovement data from last weekend show melburnians engaging in what experts have called thousands of small transgressions with the potential to drive covid19 infections higher as the effect of 200 days of lockdown takes an emotional tollp pgoogle mobility data compiled by ithe age ireveals that across the state last friday and saturday people were moving more than at any time since midjuly last year when complacency prompted premier daniel andrews to plunge the state into stagefour lockdown and mandatory maskwearingp plast weekend saw a spate of breaches a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriavictoriarecords25newcaseslessthanhalfisolatingwhileinfectious20210815p58it4html datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankincluding an organised takeaway pub crawl in richmonda and an a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamedicalprofessionalsamongguestsatillegalengagementparty20210816p58j4chtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankengagement party in caulfield northa attended by 69 guests the couple involved in the illegal party have received 5400 fines two of their parents were also fined and other guests are being interviewedp div psome metropolitan municipalities including glen eira and bayside recorded their highest lockdown movement levels last week ahead of a number of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsmhcomaulifestylehealthandwellnessmelbournesuburboncovid19alertassexworkertestspositive20210818p58jychtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankmystery cases appearing in st kildaap div blockquote div blockquotepprofessor mike toole from melbournes burnet institute who lives in a mobility hotspot in the inner south said he was shocked to witness large groups of people gathering in parks at the weekendpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamovementlevelsinvictoriareachhighestinlockdown20210819p58k5thtml target_blankthe full articlea via rich dewey  and the sydney lockdown is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58277503 target_blanknow extended until the end of septembera with masks mandated for outside as well  elsewherep blockquotepwalmart target and lowes by contrast all lifted sales forecasts this week after beating expectations for the three months to the end of july while demand for toilet paper and cleaning supplies has cooled after 2020s pantry hoarding the appetite for other products was broadbased  party supplies apparel and travel gear flew off walmarts shelves at home depot an early cache of halloween decorations sold out almost immediately swimsuits and childrens clothing were similarly popular at target and in another sign of confidence more customers returned to walmart and target store aisles after a year of browsing onlinepblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent4c92cae402104c769d95507e4c1e8884 target_blankthe associated ft articlea  which set of values do you prefer  which do most people preferp div pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theyhadbetterhurryupanddistributethoseastrazenecadoseshtmlthey had better hurry up and distribute those astrazeneca dosesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepmovement data weekend melburnians engaging experts called thousands small transgressions potential drive covid19 infections higher effect 200 days lockdown takes emotional tollp pgoogle mobility data compiled byithe ageireveals state friday saturday people moving time midjuly year complacency prompted premier daniel andrews plunge state stagefour lockdown mandatory maskwearingp plast weekend saw spate breachesa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriavictoriarecords25newcaseslessthanhalfisolatingwhileinfectious20210815p58it4html datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankincluding organised takeaway pub crawl richmondaand ana relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamedicalprofessionalsamongguestsatillegalengagementparty20210816p58j4chtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankengagement party caulfield northaattended 69 guests couple involved illegal party received 5400 fines parents fined guests interviewedp div psome metropolitan municipalities including glen eira bayside recorded highest lockdown movement levels week ahead number ofa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsmhcomaulifestylehealthandwellnessmelbournesuburboncovid19alertassexworkertestspositive20210818p58jychtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankmystery cases appearing st kildaap div blockquote div blockquotepprofessor mike toole melbournes burnet institute lives mobility hotspot inner south said shocked witness large groups people gathering parks weekendpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamovementlevelsinvictoriareachhighestinlockdown20210819p58k5thtml target_blankthe articlea rich dewey sydney lockdown relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58277503 target_blanknow extended end septembera masks mandated outside elsewherep blockquotepwalmart target lowes contrast lifted sales forecasts week beating expectations months end july demand toilet paper cleaning supplies cooled 2020s pantry hoarding appetite products broadbased party supplies apparel travel gear flew walmarts shelves home depot early cache halloween decorations sold immediately swimsuits childrens clothing similarly popular target sign confidence customers returned walmart target store aisles year browsing onlinepblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent4c92cae402104c769d95507e4c1e8884 target_blankthe associated ft articlea set values prefer people preferp div pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theyhadbetterhurryupanddistributethoseastrazenecadoseshtmlthey better hurry distribute astrazeneca dosesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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How sad that our regulatory state is still failing us

div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextwhen pfizer representatives met with senior us government health officials on july 12 they laid out why they thought a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210817boostershotsbidenadministrationitidlk_inline_manual_2 target_blankbooster shotsa would soon be necessary in the united states data from israel showed the vaccines effectiveness waned over time especially in older and immunocompromised peoplep blockquote div div div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextbut officials from the centers for disease control and prevention disagreed saying their own data showed something quite different according to four people with direct knowledge of the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymityp p dataeltextother senior health officials in the meeting wereb bstunned why hadnt the cdc looped other government officials on the data could the agency share it at least with the food and drug administration which was responsible for deciding whether booster shots were necessary but cdc officials demurred saying they planned to publish it soonp p dataeltextthat episode say senior administration officials and outside experts illustrates the growing frustration with the cdcs slow and siloed approach to sharing data which prevented officials across the government from getting realtime information about how the delta variant was bearing down on the united states and behaving with greater ferocity than earlier variants an information gap they say stymied the responsep p dataeltextits not acceptable how long it takes for this data to be made available said a senior cdc official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal mattersb bits done in a very academic way cross every t and dot every i and unfortunately we dont have that luxury in a global pandemic theres going to be a need to have a significant cultural shift in the agencyp blockquote p dataeltexthere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210818cdcdatadelaydeltavariant target_blankthe full washington post storya by yasmeen abutaleb and lena h sunp div div section div pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howsadthatourregulatorystateisstillfailingushtmlhow sad that our regulatory state is still failing usa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextwhen pfizer representatives met senior government health officials july 12 laid thought relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210817boostershotsbidenadministrationitidlk_inline_manual_2 target_blankbooster shotsa soon necessary united states data israel showed vaccines effectiveness waned time especially older immunocompromised peoplep blockquote div div div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextbut officials centers disease control prevention disagreed saying data showed different according people direct knowledge meeting spoke condition anonymityp p dataeltextother senior health officials meeting wereb bstunned hadnt cdc looped government officials data agency share food drug administration responsible deciding booster shots necessary cdc officials demurred saying planned publish soonp p dataeltextthat episode senior administration officials outside experts illustrates growing frustration cdcs slow siloed approach sharing data prevented officials government getting realtime information delta variant bearing united states behaving greater ferocity earlier variants information gap stymied responsep p dataeltextits acceptable long takes data available said senior cdc official spoke condition anonymity discuss internal mattersb bits academic way cross t dot unfortunately dont luxury global pandemic theres going need significant cultural shift agencyp blockquote p dataeltexthere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210818cdcdatadelaydeltavariant target_blankthe washington post storya yasmeen abutaleb lena h sunp div div section div pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howsadthatourregulatorystateisstillfailingushtmlhow sad regulatory state failing usa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The economics of Taliban finance

blockquotepan example of islamist governance can be found on the stretch of road from kabul to the mile 78 border crossing in southwest farah province that borders iranp pthe road has more than 25 government checkpoints and a fee is charged at multiple points on the journey by contrast the taliban who police the same road have far fewer checkpoints and give a receipt so only a single payment is necessaryp pibraheem bahiss an afghanistan consultant at international crisis group said the taliban sought to portray themselves as better administrators increasingly they began coopting government infrastructure to offer [improved] service deliveries said bahiss explaining that the taliban in some areas ensured that teachers and nurses showed up to workp pin recent years the taliban has widened its tax base from centuriesold taxes of oshr a onetenth tithe of harvest produce and zakat a religious tax of 25 per cent of disposable income for the poor although collection is often lowerp pin nimroz province levies on transit goods such as vehicles and cigarettes formed 80 per cent of taliban revenues odi research concludedp pillegal mining and taxes on imported fuel are further sources of funds taliban earnings on fuel imported from iran were as high as 30m last year according to the alcis consultancypblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent25b489672d8c4acd8699e0cbdf164cb8 target_blankthe full ft storya  you will note that the bandits side of the taliban are able to raise this revenue in part because afghanistan suffers from the misfortune of being a landlocked country  with sea routes as a possible alternatives to goods and services such fiscal systems would be harder to pull off for both the taliban and the previous government i might add  landlocked countries often have it tough  by the way much of the rest of the article considers drugs as a revenue sourcep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theeconomicsoftalibanfinancehtmlthe economics of taliban financea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepan example islamist governance found stretch road kabul mile 78 border crossing southwest farah province borders iranp pthe road 25 government checkpoints fee charged multiple points journey contrast taliban police road far fewer checkpoints receipt single payment necessaryp pibraheem bahiss afghanistan consultant international crisis group said taliban sought portray better administrators increasingly began coopting government infrastructure offer [improved] service deliveries said bahiss explaining taliban areas ensured teachers nurses showed workp pin recent years taliban widened tax base centuriesold taxes oshr onetenth tithe harvest produce zakat religious tax 25 cent disposable income poor collection lowerp pin nimroz province levies transit goods vehicles cigarettes formed 80 cent taliban revenues odi research concludedp pillegal mining taxes imported fuel sources funds taliban earnings fuel imported iran high 30m year according alcis consultancypblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent25b489672d8c4acd8699e0cbdf164cb8 target_blankthe ft storya note bandits taliban able raise revenue afghanistan suffers misfortune landlocked country sea routes possible alternatives goods services fiscal systems harder pull taliban previous government add landlocked countries tough way rest article considers drugs revenue sourcep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theeconomicsoftalibanfinancehtmlthe economics taliban financea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Covid markets in everything, certified air ambulance regulatory arbitrage edition

div blockquotepwe werent sure what was going to happen if they were going to separate us or put us in a hospital said mcelroy i didnt know if i was going to need a respiratorp pnone of that happened within 72 hours the couple was on a learjet back to arizonapblockquote div div blockquotepbefore they left underwood purchased memberships with a relnoopener hrefhttpscovacglobalcom target_blankcovac globala a medical evacuation company launched by the crisis response firm hri in the spring of 2020 it meant the couple didnt pay a dime for their repatriation said mcelroyp pcommercial airlines and private jets cant fly travelers with covid19 home but certified air ambulances staffed with medical teams canp pwhile some companies evacuate travelers who require hospitalization covac global retrieves travelers who test positive for covid19 and have one selfreported symptom about 85 of evacuees are returned home while the rest need hospital attention said ceo ross thompsonp pwhen cnbc a hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210401howtoflyhomeifyoutestpositiveforcovidhtmlfirst spoke with the company in marcha it was performing about two to three medical evacuations every month now that number has climbed to about 12 to 20pblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210820whattogethomeifitestpositiveforcovidwhiletravelinghtml target_blankthe full storya via shaffin shariffp div pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108covidmarketsineverythingcertifiedairambulanceregulatoryarbitrageeditionhtmlcovid markets in everything certified air ambulance regulatory arbitrage editiona appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

div blockquotepwe werent sure going happen going separate hospital said mcelroy didnt know going need respiratorp pnone happened 72 hours couple learjet arizonapblockquote div div blockquotepbefore left underwood purchased memberships relnoopener hrefhttpscovacglobalcom target_blankcovac globala medical evacuation company launched crisis response firm hri spring 2020 meant couple didnt pay dime repatriation said mcelroyp pcommercial airlines private jets cant fly travelers covid19 home certified air ambulances staffed medical teams canp pwhile companies evacuate travelers require hospitalization covac global retrieves travelers test positive covid19 selfreported symptom 85 evacuees returned home rest need hospital attention said ceo ross thompsonp pwhen cnbca hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210401howtoflyhomeifyoutestpositiveforcovidhtmlfirst spoke company marcha performing medical evacuations month number climbed 12 20pblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210820whattogethomeifitestpositiveforcovidwhiletravelinghtml target_blankthe storya shaffin shariffp div pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108covidmarketsineverythingcertifiedairambulanceregulatoryarbitrageeditionhtmlcovid markets certified air ambulance regulatory arbitrage editiona appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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What is going on with productivity? (from my email)

blockquotepvarious web sources but none of this seems controversialp p1 us gdp is now higher in fact a fair bit higher then when the pandemic beganp p2 us labor force participation is about 15 lower than when the pandemic beganp pwas there really slack to the tune of a few million people in jan of 2020p phas inflation really changed enough to make the gdp numbers misleadingp phas total factor productivity improved that much in that time under those stressesp por is this all a sign that the structure of the economy is more stratified than we think that there are millions of people in moreorless filler jobs who can be cast out and the economy just keeps on running along   yes there are all sorts of reports of labor shortages and all manner of supply chain hiccups which seem to often be associated with off shoring but general activity is still high   or is it  are the numbers reporting vapor gdp or are the inflation adjustments really out of whack so real gdp is not what we think it ispblockquote pthat is all from bryan willmanp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatisgoingonwithproductivityfrommyemailhtmlwhat is going on with productivity from my emaila appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepvarious web sources controversialp p1 gdp higher fact fair bit higher pandemic beganp p2 labor force participation 15 lower pandemic beganp pwas slack tune million people jan 2020p phas inflation changed gdp numbers misleadingp phas total factor productivity improved time stressesp por sign structure economy stratified think millions people moreorless filler jobs cast economy keeps running yes sorts reports labor shortages manner supply chain hiccups associated shoring general activity high numbers reporting vapor gdp inflation adjustments whack real gdp think ispblockquote pthat bryan willmanp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatisgoingonwithproductivityfrommyemailhtmlwhat going productivity emaila appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The problem with fitting third doses into a regulatory structure

pthat is a key theme of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20210822firstcovidimmobilizedusnowgovernmentsarecmpid3dsocialflowtwitterviewutm_contentviewutm_campaignsocialfloworganicutm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwittersrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna here is one excerptp blockquote pin the us president joe bidens administration is now pushing third booster shots for people who already have been vaccinated that might be a good idea but it too creates additional uncertainty for travel and migration and for social interaction more broadly if three doses are so important should people be allowed to travel or for that matter interact indoors with only two doses the bar is raised yet againp pof course the issues do not end with the third dose if the efficacy of the second dose declines significantly in less than a year might the same happen with the third dose how long before four doses are necessary or maybe five or what if yet another significant covid variant comes along and only some people have a booster dose against that strain what then counts as being sufficiently vaccinatedp pmany americans a relnofollow noopener hrefhttpspbstwimgcommediae9f9vyjwyaa1fhhjpg target_blankseem to be keena to get their third dose but by the nature of counting that number is fewer than the number willing to get two doses furthermore many people might just tire of the stress of dealing with an ongoing stream of obligatory booster shots and stop at one or twop pthe sad reality is that the twodose standard may not last very long whether abroad or domestically the same is true of the even weaker onedose standard with johnson amp johnson and astrazeneca vaccine mandates will become harder to define and enforce will be less transparent and will probably be less popularp pif you tell people that three doses are needed for safety but two doses are enough to get you into a concert or government building how are they supposed to sort out the mixed messages it is not obvious that enough people will get the third dose in a timely manner to make that a workable standard for vaccine passportsp padd to that the a relnofollow noopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thefdaandcdcstandardsonthejjvaccineandtheimmunocompromisedareunintelligiblehtml target_blankproblemsa with the johnson amp johnson vaccine which originally the government urged people to get now those people are not being given comparable chances to obtain boosters in fact they are not yet being given specific guidance at all are they orphaned out of any new vaccine passport system or will supposedly dangerous exceptions be made for them or do they just have to start all overp pthe big international winner from all this is likely to be mexico which has remained an open country and is not relying on vaccine passports in general i do not admire mexicos lackadaisical covid response but the country may end up in a relatively favorable position most of all when it comes to tourism and international business meetingsp pas for the us and europe the temptation to escalate required safety measures is understandable but the previous vaccine standards were largely workable ones if they are made tougher they might break down altogetherp blockquote precommendedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theproblemwithfittingthirddosesintoaregulatorystructurehtmlthe problem with fitting third doses into a regulatory structurea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthat key theme relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20210822firstcovidimmobilizedusnowgovernmentsarecmpid3dsocialflowtwitterviewutm_contentviewutm_campaignsocialfloworganicutm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwittersrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna excerptp blockquote pin president joe bidens administration pushing booster shots people vaccinated good idea creates additional uncertainty travel migration social interaction broadly doses important people allowed travel matter interact indoors doses bar raised againp pof course issues end dose efficacy second dose declines significantly year happen dose long doses necessary maybe significant covid variant comes people booster dose strain counts sufficiently vaccinatedp pmany americansa relnofollow noopener hrefhttpspbstwimgcommediae9f9vyjwyaa1fhhjpg target_blankseem keenato dose nature counting number fewer number willing doses furthermore people tire stress dealing ongoing stream obligatory booster shots stop twop pthe sad reality twodose standard long abroad domestically true weaker onedose standard johnson amp johnson astrazeneca vaccine mandates harder define enforce transparent probably popularp pif tell people doses needed safety doses concert government building supposed sort mixed messages obvious people dose timely manner workable standard vaccine passportsp padd thea relnofollow noopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thefdaandcdcstandardsonthejjvaccineandtheimmunocompromisedareunintelligiblehtml target_blankproblemsawith johnson amp johnson vaccine originally government urged people people given comparable chances obtain boosters fact given specific guidance orphaned new vaccine passport system supposedly dangerous exceptions start overp pthe big international winner likely mexico remained open country relying vaccine passports general admire mexicos lackadaisical covid response country end relatively favorable position comes tourism international business meetingsp pas europe temptation escalate required safety measures understandable previous vaccine standards largely workable ones tougher break altogetherp blockquote precommendedp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theproblemwithfittingthirddosesintoaregulatorystructurehtmlthe problem fitting doses regulatory structurea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The Afghani dollar

pa relattachment wpatt81773 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlzafghaniimg sizesmaxwidth 1600px 100vw 1600px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg alt width1600 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg 1600w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani300x91jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1024x311jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani768x233jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1536x467jpg 1536w classwpimage81773 height486ahere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwxecomcurrencyconverterconvertamount1fromafntousd target_blankthe sourcea  the surprises are to me how early the plunge came how in percentage terms it appears manageable 0013 to 00124 is noticeable but not earthshattering and the rebound at the very end  caveat emptor of course and almost certainly these markets have a low level of liquidity and possibly are manipulated as wellp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlthe afghani dollara appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relattachment wpatt81773 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlzafghaniimg sizesmaxwidth 1600px 100vw 1600px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg alt width1600 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg 1600w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani300x91jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1024x311jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani768x233jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1536x467jpg 1536w classwpimage81773 height486ahere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwxecomcurrencyconverterconvertamount1fromafntousd target_blankthe sourcea surprises early plunge came percentage terms appears manageable 0013 00124 noticeable earthshattering rebound end caveat emptor course certainly markets low level liquidity possibly manipulated wellp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlthe afghani dollara appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Ashish Kulkarni interviews me

piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedzyfxi4frqjwversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep pabout half is about india including on how to construct an ideal india trip and also on the legacy of british colonialism  the other half is his very careful memoryrich questions about earlier strongmrstrong posts  i was happy with how it turned outp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108ashishkulkarniinterviewsmehtmlashish kulkarni interviews mea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedzyfxi4frqjwversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep pabout half india including construct ideal india trip legacy british colonialism half careful memoryrich questions earlier strongmrstrong posts happy turned outp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108ashishkulkarniinterviewsmehtmlashish kulkarni interviews mea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Quillette's Best on Critical Social Justice

figureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wilfridlaurierpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figureimg altquillettes best on critical social justice srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108criticalsocialjusticepngpstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20171121wilfridlauriercreepcriticaltheorywilfrid laurier and the creep of critical theorya stronguri harrisbrbrwere moving away from the multidimensional bottomup approach to discourse that has characterised and helped shape western societies and towards a singular topdown approach that more resembles how western societies looked before the enlightenmentpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108blankbookpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180415stiflinguniformityliterarytheorystrongthe stifling uniformity of literary theorystronga strongstrong neema parvinippeither you are with the oppressed and therefore on the side of the angels or you are implicitly supporting the side of the oppressors and a damnable and unrepentant sinnerpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108ffm_adornogedenktafeljpeg altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height749figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190103thefrankfurtschoolandpostmodernphilosophystrongthe frankfurt school and postmodern philosophystronga strongstrong matt mcmanusppwhile they were often reticent to simply accept full irrationalism in all its nihilistic connotations postmodern philosophers were often willing to flirt with deep skepticism and even mysticism as a default philosophical outlookpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108deadendpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadenda hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadendstrongpostmodernisms dead endstronga a maximilian wernerppaccording to this culturally relative view of the world then truth is arbitrary and exclusive rather than evidentiary and shared the consequence is divisivenesspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108statuepng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20200305acloserlookatwhitefragilitytheorystronga closer look at white fragility theorystronga strongstrong valerie taricoppwhite fragility theory simultaneously rejects racial essentialism and embraces it perhaps this paradox reflects where many americans are in the long arc of struggle toward equity and justicepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108whitefragilitypng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180824theproblemwithwhitefragilitytheorystrongthe problem with white fragility theorystronga strongstrong jonathan churchppit appears that diangelo and her disciples have become so focused on white illiteracy in the conversation about race that they are prepared to sacrifice the scientific method on the altar of fighting institutional racismpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108kaufmannpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20181027whiteprivilegeisrealbutwellmeaningwhiteliberalsarehelpingtoperpetuateitwhite privilege is real but wellmeaning white liberals are helping to perpetuate ita strong eric kaufmannpprather than imagining a world of conflicting groups in which whites oppress nonwhites we should think of white privilege as a complex structure which all people of all races and ethnicities bear some responsibility forpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108peggymcintoshpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height812figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180829unpackingpeggymcintoshsknapsackstrongunpacking peggy mcintoshs knapsackstronga strongstrong william rayppevery time identity politics has been used by any faction in human history for any reason violence eventually followspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp1png altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190822whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart1strongwhy white privilege is wrongpart 1stronga strongstrong vincent harinam and rob hendersonppclearly differences exist between ethnic groups in the us but as weve shown white privilege does not explain them in fact white privilege condenses the complexities of group outcomes into a simple narrative that does not help anyonepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp2jpeg altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20191016whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart2strongwhy white privilege is wrongpart 2stronga strongstrong vincent harinam and rob hendersonppwhite privilege gives you a simple answer and a clear enemy but if we truly want to understand and mitigate group differences then taking a closer look at the data is a far better approachp

figureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wilfridlaurierpng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figureimg altquillettes best critical social justice srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108criticalsocialjusticepngpstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20171121wilfridlauriercreepcriticaltheorywilfrid laurier creep critical theorya stronguri harrisbrbrwere moving away multidimensional bottomup approach discourse characterised helped shape western societies singular topdown approach resembles western societies looked enlightenmentpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108blankbookpng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180415stiflinguniformityliterarytheorystrongthe stifling uniformity literary theorystronga strongstrong neema parvinippeither oppressed angels implicitly supporting oppressors damnable unrepentant sinnerpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108ffm_adornogedenktafeljpeg altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height749figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190103thefrankfurtschoolandpostmodernphilosophystrongthe frankfurt school postmodern philosophystronga strongstrong matt mcmanusppwhile reticent simply accept irrationalism nihilistic connotations postmodern philosophers willing flirt deep skepticism mysticism default philosophical outlookpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108deadendpng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadenda hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadendstrongpostmodernisms dead endstronga maximilian wernerppaccording culturally relative view world truth arbitrary exclusive evidentiary shared consequence divisivenesspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108statuepng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20200305acloserlookatwhitefragilitytheorystronga closer look white fragility theorystronga strongstrong valerie taricoppwhite fragility theory simultaneously rejects racial essentialism embraces paradox reflects americans long arc struggle equity justicepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108whitefragilitypng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180824theproblemwithwhitefragilitytheorystrongthe problem white fragility theorystronga strongstrong jonathan churchppit appears diangelo disciples focused white illiteracy conversation race prepared sacrifice scientific method altar fighting institutional racismpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108kaufmannpng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20181027whiteprivilegeisrealbutwellmeaningwhiteliberalsarehelpingtoperpetuateitwhite privilege real wellmeaning white liberals helping perpetuate ita strong eric kaufmannpprather imagining world conflicting groups whites oppress nonwhites think white privilege complex structure people races ethnicities bear responsibility forpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108peggymcintoshpng altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height812figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180829unpackingpeggymcintoshsknapsackstrongunpacking peggy mcintoshs knapsackstronga strongstrong william rayppevery time identity politics faction human history reason violence eventually followspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp1png altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190822whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart1strongwhy white privilege wrongpart 1stronga strongstrong vincent harinam rob hendersonppclearly differences exist ethnic groups weve shown white privilege explain fact white privilege condenses complexities group outcomes simple narrative help anyonepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp2jpeg altquillettes best critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20191016whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart2strongwhy white privilege wrongpart 2stronga strongstrong vincent harinam rob hendersonppwhite privilege gives simple answer clear enemy truly want understand mitigate group differences taking closer look data far better approachp

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Fortschritt

blockquote p datatestidparagraph0germany has decided to stop using the coronavirus infection rate as its yardstick for deciding if restrictions should be in force to contain the spread of the virus chancellor angela merkel said on mondayp p datatestidparagraph1the sevenday incidence rate was a key measure in determining whether restrictions could be imposed or lifted with infection thresholds of 35 50 and 100 per 100000 people triggering the opening or closure of different parts of societyp p datatestidparagraph2but as the number of people who are fully vaccinated rises calls have grown for the incidence rate to be dropped as a measure to determine whether lockdowns are necessaryp p datatestidparagraph3we decided today that we no longer need comprehensive protective measures when the number of cases or incidence is 50 because a large proportion of the people are vaccinated merkel saidp blockquote p datatestidparagraph3when will california do the same  here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldeuropegermandropincidencelevelskeycovidyardsticksources20210823 target_blankthe full storyap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108fortschritthtmlfortschritta appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquote p datatestidparagraph0germany decided stop coronavirus infection rate yardstick deciding restrictions force contain spread virus chancellor angela merkel said mondayp p datatestidparagraph1the sevenday incidence rate key measure determining restrictions imposed lifted infection thresholds 35 50 100 100000 people triggering opening closure different parts societyp p datatestidparagraph2but number people fully vaccinated rises calls grown incidence rate dropped measure determine lockdowns necessaryp p datatestidparagraph3we decided today longer need comprehensive protective measures number cases incidence 50 large proportion people vaccinated merkel saidp blockquote p datatestidparagraph3when california relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldeuropegermandropincidencelevelskeycovidyardsticksources20210823 target_blankthe storyap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108fortschritthtmlfortschritta appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61242539ec6d177dabef069d

The Rise (and Fall) of the Modern Bank of England

pthe notion of an essentially contestable concept means an issue which by its very nature can never be definitively settled no matter how much brilliance is expended on it and about which no logic or evidence can ever force disputing parties to agree thus they are in the words of stuart hampshire permanently and essentially subject to revision and question in short the debate never ends how many such essentially contestable propositions have we seen macroeconomics like politics and philosophy is full of themp pin macroeconomics one essentially contestable issue is what the ideal nature and functions of a central bank should be given the immense financial and political importance of central banks in a world that runs entirely on the fiat currencies they create and inflate these are critical questions but no answer though it may be in fashion for a time turns out to be permanent crises occur theories run up against surprising reality the debates resume and central bank evolution has no end no ideal final statep pharold james ema relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20 target_blankmaking a modern central bankaspan [1]spanem is a very instructive book in this respect it relates in great and often exhausting detail the lengthy debates concerning the functions and organization of that iconic central bank the bank of england in the midst of the financial events of the years 19792003 with a brief but essential update at the end on what has happened since then the bank of england seemed to be engaged in a constant quest to determine what its real function might be james observes the quest involved lots of brilliant minds and colorful personalities and they remind us that it is easier to be brilliant than right when dealing with the economic and financial futurep pin the longer historical background of these debates and important to their psychology is that the bank as the book usually refers to it had had a great run as the dominant central bank in the world under the gold standard it had impressive traditions going back to its founding in 1694 then in the wake of the financial destruction as well as all the other destruction of the first world war the role of the worlds leading central bank was taken over by the federal reserve representing the newly dominant us dollarp pstill the bank of england punches internationally above its weight james writes not because of the strength of the british economy but because [quoting paul krugman] of its intellectual adventurousness this intellectual flair is well displayed in the book moreover in its institutional history the bank calls on long experience in the grand sweep of economic and financial evolution in 1979 it was approaching its 300th anniversary while the fed was less than 70 years oldp pat that point the bank of england was facing severe stress the 1970s were years of crisis everywhere but especially in the uk there was in particular the collapse of the fixed exchange rate world of bretton woods which was the final disappearance of the gold standard over which the bank had once presided there were the two oil price shocks generating substantial instability the global great inflation was roaring the british pound sterling kept getting weakerp paccording to james the policy discussions of the uk in 1976 were dramatic and humiliating they turned into an indictment of a britain that had failed because of the foreign exchange crisis the governor of the bank of england and the chancellor of the exchequer could not make their scheduled journeys to the imf [international monetary fund] annual meetings the prime humiliation was that britain once a vast imperial and financial power had been forced to ask the imf for a loan which imposed heavy cuts in the government budget goodbye great britain said a 1975 emwall street journalem headlinep pof course there were different ideas about what to do there was a struggle between differing parts of the british economic establishment a clash [between] treasury and bank the discussions debates and political dialectic between the treasury and the bank are a central theme of the entire book can a central bank be truly independent or is it instead just a subsidiary and a servant of the treasury or is it something in betweenperhaps independent within the government as the federal reserve used to incoherently but diplomatically say for james the relationship between treasury and bank remained permanently haunted by potential or actual controversyp palways in the background in the bank of england case james points out is this provision of the bank of england act of 1946p blockquote classwpblockquotepthe treasury may from time to time give such directions to the bank as after consultation with the governor of the bank they think necessary in the public interestpblockquote pthats pretty clear there is certainly nothing in the federal reserve act about giving directions in that fashion although the us treasury department and the white house always do want to give directions to the fed and sometimes succeed as donald kettl observed in emleadership at the fedem the feds power continues to rest on its political support and james shows how true this is of the bank of englandp pthe bank of england act of 1998 is more nuanced but does not change who the senior partner isp blockquote classwpblockquotepthe objectives of the bank of england shall bea to maintain price stability and b subject to that to support the economic policy of her majestys governmentpblockquote pit is the treasury her majestys government that gets to determine what price stabilitya relnoopener target_blankathat is the inflation targeta relnoopener target_blanka will be not the bank the bank thus has operational independence but not target independence in contrast the federal reserve has had the remarkable hubris to assert it can set an inflation target define price stability by itself in most other countries it is given by or negotiated with the governmentp figure classwpblockpullquote blockquotepthroughout these challenging events the roles of the bank of england as promoter of systemic financial stability provider of financing to combat the panics and financial instability coordinator and regulator of the banking firms and creator of moral hazard by bailouts are prominentall in addition to its key monetary inflationcontrolling rolepblockquote figure pas the book proceeds the bank moves from 1970s humiliation to what appears to be a successful modern central bank by 2003 although that afterwards turns out to be ephemeral along the way were many crises all interestingly related for those with a taste for financial historyp pthere was another foreign exchange crisis involving more humiliation on black wednesdayseptember 16 1992the pound sank in spite of very costly and ultimately futile support by the bank of england breaking the european exchange rate mechanism of fixed parities and famously making giant profits for george soros and other speculators the experiment in european cooperation had ended in failure bringing a progressive distancing of the uk from europe and was an earlier version of brexit james suggestsp pthere were multiple credit and banking crises and bailouts these included a deep real estate bust when house prices fell from 1989 to 1993 and many banks fell along with them a larger one national home loans had twofifths of its loan book over two months in arrears there was the scandalous collapse of bcci the bank of credit and commerce international popularly dubbed the bank of crooks and cocaine international in 1991 it looked as if there might be a panic and a run on the midland bank one of the largest banks the bank of england considered midland indeed too big to failp pthe famous firm of barings londons oldest merchant bank collapsed in 1995 from the notorious losses of a rogue trader in asia barings had also failed in 1890 from argentine entanglements when it was rescued by the bank of england this time it got sold to a dutch bank for one pound the 1995 barings crisis involved a particularly british problem the worry that the queen had very nearly lost some of her fundsp pthroughout these challenging events the roles of the bank of england as promoter of systemic financial stability provider of financing to combat the panics and financial instability coordinator and regulator of the banking firms and creator of moral hazard by bailouts are prominentall in addition to its key monetary inflationcontrolling role how many functions should the bank of england have this kept being debatedp pin the 1990s the bank began to specify essential or core purposes in particular initially three currency or price stability financial stability and the promotion of the uk financial service sector james points out however the bank still had fourteen highlevel strategic objectives twentyseven area strategic aims fortynine business objectives and fiftyfive management objectivesp pand then came the big redesign complex intensely political intellectually provocative negotiations among strong personalities in the government and the bank related in enjoyable journalistic detail led to the 1998 bank of england act this act sharply focused the bank on the core function of maintaining price stability which as defined turned out to be an inflation target the bank would get to choose the methods to achieve this though it would be given the target the act also took financial supervision away from the bank and moved it all to a new consolidated regulator the financial services authority fsap pthe result was an independent modern central bank in line with the international central banking theories and fashion of the new 21st century as james explains a modern central bank has a much narrower and more limited set of tasks or functions than the often historic institution from which it developed the objective is the provision of monetary stability nothing more and nothing less for the bank of england by the early 2000s that task looked like it had been achieved with stunning successp pit takes the book 450 scholarly pages to reach this outcome the remaining 11 pages relate how it didnt work the modern central bank turned out to be far from the end of central banking history or the end of the related debatesp blockquote classwpblockquotepthe monetary and financial governance which appeared to have been functioning so smoothly and satisfactorily was severely tested after 20072008pblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe crisis required central banks to multitask feverishlypblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepa new wave of institutional upheaval set inpblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe 2012 financial services act abolished the fsapblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepby 2017 something that looked rather more like the old bank was being recreatedpblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe old theme of the bank as provider or guarantor of financial stability came backpblockquote pand so in central banking the great evolution and cycling of ideas and of fashions continues the essentially contestable concepts keep being contestedp divh3endnotesh3ollispanmaking a modern central bankspan httpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20lioldivpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorg20210823theriseandfallofthemodernbankofenglandthe rise and fall of the modern bank of englanda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorgr streetap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrrstreet4rcjg1zweoae height1

pthe notion essentially contestable concept means issue nature definitively settled matter brilliance expended logic evidence force disputing parties agree words stuart hampshire permanently essentially subject revision questionin short debate ends essentially contestable propositions seen macroeconomics like politics philosophy themp pin macroeconomics essentially contestable issue ideal nature functions central bank given immense financial political importance central banks world runs entirely fiat currencies create inflate critical questions answer fashion time turns permanent crises occur theories run surprising reality debates resume central bank evolution end ideal final statep pharold jamesema relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20 target_blankmaking modern central bankaspan [1]spanemis instructive book respect relates great exhausting detail lengthy debates concerning functions organization iconic central bank bank england midst financial events years 19792003 brief essential update end happened bank england engaged constant quest determine real function james observes quest involved lots brilliant minds colorful personalities remind easier brilliant right dealing economic financial futurep pin longer historical background debates important psychology bank book usually refers great run dominant central bank world gold standard impressive traditions going founding 1694 wake financial destruction destruction world war role worlds leading central bank taken federal reserve representing newly dominant dollarp pstill bank england punches internationally weight james writes strength british economy [quoting paul krugman] intellectual adventurousness intellectual flair displayed book institutional history bank calls long experience grand sweep economic financial evolution 1979 approaching 300th anniversary fed 70 years oldp pat point bank england facing severe stress 1970s years crisis especially uk particular collapse fixed exchange rate world bretton woods final disappearance gold standard bank presided oil price shocks generating substantial instability global great inflation roaring british pound sterling kept getting weakerp paccording james policy discussions uk 1976 dramatic humiliating turned indictment britain failed foreign exchange crisis governor bank england chancellor exchequer scheduled journeys imf [international monetary fund] annual meetings prime humiliation britain vast imperial financial power forced ask imf loan imposed heavy cuts government budget goodbye great britain said 1975emwall street journalemheadlinep pof course different ideas struggle differing parts british economic establishment clash [between] treasury bank discussions debates political dialectic treasury bank central theme entire book central bank truly independent instead subsidiary servant treasury betweenperhaps independent government federal reserve incoherently diplomatically james relationship treasury bank remained permanently haunted potential actual controversyp palways background bank england case james points provision bank england act 1946p blockquote classwpblockquotepthe treasury time time directions bank consultation governor bank think necessary public interestpblockquote pthats pretty clear certainly federal reserve act giving directions fashion treasury department white house want directions fed succeed donald kettl observed inemleadership fedem feds power continues rest political support james shows true bank englandp pthe bank england act 1998 nuanced change senior partner isp blockquote classwpblockquotepthe objectives bank england shall bea maintain price stability b subject support economic policy majestys governmentpblockquote pit treasury majestys government gets determine price stabilitya relnoopener target_blankathat inflation targeta relnoopener target_blankawill bank bank operational independence target independence contrast federal reserve remarkable hubris assert set inflation target define price stability countries given negotiated governmentp figure classwpblockpullquote blockquotepthroughout challenging events roles bank england promoter systemic financial stability provider financing combat panics financial instability coordinator regulator banking firms creator moral hazard bailouts prominentall addition key monetary inflationcontrolling rolepblockquote figure pas book proceeds bank moves 1970s humiliation appears successful modern central bank 2003 turns ephemeral way crises interestingly related taste financial historyp pthere foreign exchange crisis involving humiliation black wednesdayseptember 16 1992the pound sank spite costly ultimately futile support bank england breaking european exchange rate mechanism fixed parities famously making giant profits george soros speculators experiment european cooperation ended failure bringing progressive distancing uk europe earlier version brexit james suggestsp pthere multiple credit banking crises bailouts included deep real estate bust house prices fell 1989 1993 banks fell larger national home loans twofifths loan book months arrears scandalous collapse bcci bank credit commerce international popularly dubbed bank crooks cocaine international 1991 looked panic run midland bank largest banks bank england considered midland big failp pthe famous firm barings londons oldest merchant bank collapsed 1995 notorious losses rogue trader asia barings failed 1890 argentine entanglements rescued bank england time got sold dutch bank pound 1995 barings crisis involved particularly british problem worry queen nearly lost fundsp pthroughout challenging events roles bank england promoter systemic financial stability provider financing combat panics financial instability coordinator regulator banking firms creator moral hazard bailouts prominentall addition key monetary inflationcontrolling role functions bank england kept debatedp pin 1990s bank began specify essential core purposes particular initially currency price stability financial stability promotion uk financial service sector james points bank fourteen highlevel strategic objectives twentyseven area strategic aims fortynine business objectives fiftyfive management objectivesp pand came big redesign complex intensely political intellectually provocative negotiations strong personalities government bank related enjoyable journalistic detail led 1998 bank england act act sharply focused bank core function maintaining price stability defined turned inflation target bank choose methods achieve given target act took financial supervision away bank moved new consolidated regulator financial services authority fsap pthe result independent modern central bank line international central banking theories fashion new 21st century james explains modern central bank narrower limited set tasks functions historic institution developed objective provision monetary stability bank england early 2000s task looked like achieved stunning successp pit takes book 450 scholarly pages reach outcome remaining 11 pages relate didnt work modern central bank turned far end central banking history end related debatesp blockquote classwpblockquotepthe monetary financial governance appeared functioning smoothly satisfactorily severely tested 20072008pblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe crisis required central banks multitask feverishlypblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepa new wave institutional upheaval set inpblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe 2012 financial services act abolished fsapblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepby 2017 looked like old bank recreatedpblockquote blockquote classwpblockquotepthe old theme bank provider guarantor financial stability came backpblockquote pand central banking great evolution cycling ideas fashions continues essentially contestable concepts contestedp divh3endnotesh3ollispanmaking modern central bankspan httpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20lioldivpthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorg20210823theriseandfallofthemodernbankofenglandthe rise fall modern bank englanda appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorgr streetap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrrstreet4rcjg1zweoae height1

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Simple facts about Afghanistan

blockquoteptrade will be a particular source of difficulty the last a hrefhttpswwwimforgenpublicationscrissues20210628islamicrepublicofafghanistanfirstreviewundertheundertheextendedcreditfacility461288imf reporta on the country prior to the collapse of the government counted imports at about 7 billion annually a huge fraction of afghanistans 19 billion gdp imports exceeded exports by about a factor of five while that high level of imports was sustainable under the unusual circumstances of the us presence it wont be sustainable going forwardp pso on top of its other problems afghanistan will need to balance its trade deficit a deeply painful process that will one way or another reduce the number of imports available to afghan civilians given that its currency reserves have been a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210818businessafghancentralbankhtmlfrozena to prevent the taliban from accessing them it will need to balance its trade deficit quickly without any adjustment periodpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsfullstackeconomicscomafghanistantradeshocktaliban target_blankmorea via matt yglesias do a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwslowboringcom target_blanksubscribea  note that electricity and medical supplies are among the most important afghani importsp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108simplefactsaboutafghanistanhtmlsimple facts about afghanistana appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquoteptrade particular source difficulty lasta hrefhttpswwwimforgenpublicationscrissues20210628islamicrepublicofafghanistanfirstreviewundertheundertheextendedcreditfacility461288imf reportaon country prior collapse government counted imports 7 billion annually huge fraction afghanistans 19 billion gdp imports exceeded exports factor high level imports sustainable unusual circumstances presence wont sustainable going forwardp pso problems afghanistan need balance trade deficit deeply painful process way reduce number imports available afghan civilians given currency reserves beena hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210818businessafghancentralbankhtmlfrozenato prevent taliban accessing need balance trade deficit quickly adjustment periodpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpsfullstackeconomicscomafghanistantradeshocktaliban target_blankmorea matt yglesias relnoopener hrefhttpswwwslowboringcom target_blanksubscribea note electricity medical supplies important afghani importsp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108simplefactsaboutafghanistanhtmlsimple facts afghanistana appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Data-Driven Parenting: A Conversation with Emily Oster

pimg sizesmaxwidth 1430px 100vw 1430px srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1430x794jpg width1430 alt srcsethttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzerjpg 1430w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer300x167jpg 300w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1024x569jpg 1024w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer768x426jpg 768w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height794p pp pemhow can better data help parents make better decisions thats the question emily oster has made it her mission to answer oster is a professor of economics at brown university and the author of three books about datadriven parenting the first emexpecting betterem focused on how to make informed decisions during pregnancy the second emcribsheetem tackled the first early years of parenting now her latest book ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankthe family firm a datadriven guide to better decision making in the early school yearsaem focuses on the notoriously tumultuous elementary yearsemp div classwpblockimagefigurea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankimg alt srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108ffcover199x300jpeg classwpimage33508afigurediv pemshe recently joined samuel salzer and aline holzwarth on ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycombehavioraldesignpodcast target_blankthe behavioral design podcasta emto discussem the family firmem below is an excerpt of their conversion which covers why oster feels its so important to bring data and decisionmaking strategies to parenting the reasons the elementary age range is trickier than the younger years and why a family google doc might feel offputting but doesnt have to be a full recording of their conversation a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankcan be found hereaemp pemheather graci editorial teamemp div classwpblockspacerdiv pstrongsamuel salzer to start us off it would be interesting to hear about why you wrote your books on parenting what is it that you hoped they would bring to the discussion what do you hope will be different with these books in the worldstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong there are two things that im trying to add with the books that i think are missing from some of this discussion one is a kind of translation theres an expert scientific consensus around something but when we express that to people we very rarely try to translate emwhyem we think that but for many people they would like to understand why you came to that conclusionp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongwhen we come out with results in science we rarely frame it inside how should you make decisions differently based on thisstrongpblockquote pthe other thing and this is more salient in the emfamily firmem is bringing in a piece of the idea that when we come out with results in science we rarely frame it inside how should you make decisions differently based on this a lot of the tools im trying to give people are how you can combine decisionmaking with some of these pieces of data to incorporate them in your life rather than just be like okay i dont know what to do with thisp pstrongsamuel salzer one of the main premises [in emfamily firmem] is that we dont really have a problem with taking an organized systematic approach to decisionmaking at work but we fail to do the same in the context of the home you argue that in some ways we should treat our personal family decisions a little bit more like we treat business decisions why do you think these environments bring out such different decisionmaking behavior from usstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong i think there are a couple of things one is that this isnt the way were socialized into running our households when you arrive at work they tell you heres the way were doing it but when you arrive in a household we dont have that to begin with theres something deeper which is that when you are at your home with the people that you love there is a temptation to think well because i love these people it should just kind of work i shouldnt have to sit down and have a meeting with my spouse about how were going to organize our life because we love each otherwere just going to make it work togetherp psome of these tools i talk aboutyou could have shared google docs and you could send each other follow up emailspeople are like who are you married top pstrongaline holzwarth another economiststrongp pstrongemily osterstrong yeah another economist but because of the feeling that this is so impersonal people have been reluctant to adopt some of these tools theres a little bit of a shift that could be useful to say hey i can have a happy loving emotionally rich relationship with these people and also use google forms and that may not bring in as much conflict as we think in fact i may be able to have a nicer relationship with this person if im not always resentful about why they arent doing things the way that i said even though i never told them that those things were important to me because we didnt have enough google docsp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthere is a temptation to think well because i love these people it should just kind of work i shouldnt have to sit down and have a meeting with my spousestrongstrongstrongpblockquote pstrongsamuel salzer i have two friends one of them is a behavioral scientist as well they got into conflict based on him sending a calendly link for them to catch up shes like who am i to you its not supposed to be this way between friends have you come across similar kinds of reactionsstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong people do have this reaction i think its one thing with your friends its even a further step with your spouse i will explain to people that when jesse and i are trying to work through something frequently we will have a conversation about it and then he will send a followup email in our conversation we agreed on the following bullet points let me know if im missing anything love jessep pi explain to other people and theyre at first like what is that but then you say well why is that valuable later if theres something that ive missed in the conversation i can be like oh hey that isnt how i remember that i thought we said this then its not that i do something different and later you yell at me or i yell at you it generates a common efficiency knowledge that lets us move forward in making better decisions in these spaces sometimes when i explain that to people they reflect a little bit like actually that doesnt sound as terrible as i thought i did when you first said itp pstrongaline holzwarthstrong strongin the book you present a framework of the four fs for helping with some of the mediumsized decisions could you give us the twosentence version of the four fs framing the question factfinding coming up with a final decision and then following upstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong the idea is to give people a way to think about these mediumsized decisions and to structure their decisionmaking decisions like thiswhat school should we pick or even smaller things should we do this activitytend to take over peoples brains they take all the space but you never find the moments to really focus on them and that is not a good way to make decisions the idea here is that for these decisions you really do need some focus time but you also dont need emallem the timep pstrongsamuel salzer im curious which one of these [four steps] have you noticed that people find the least intuitive which one do people struggle with moststrongp pstrongemily osterstrong people have a very hard time saying what their alternatives are its very easy for us to say should i do this or not its much harder to say should i do this or that after you have made a decision you should schedule a time to think about whether it was the right decision and no one ever does that p blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongpeople have a very hard time saying what their alternatives are its very easy for us to say should i do this or not its much harder to say should i do this or thatstrongpblockquote pstrongaline holzwarth the factfinding step incorporates other personal criteria that people bring to the table as well some of the things you cover are whats your budget how much time do you have what are the logistics involved do you have to drive to six different places and you cant be in more than one at the same timestrongp pstrongwhat are your thoughts on this combined approach in general this sort of meshing together of data and preference do you think that pulling these two together will help people make better decisionsstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong i think that this is the big challengethis part of parenting in emcribsheetem when i write about little kids theres framing around how to think about the effect sizes and the decisions but a lot of it is really that the data tells you enough part of why i was initially very resistant to writing a book about older kids in this age range is that its almost never the case that the data is enough there are so many logistics and family preferences and heterogeneity across kidsp pthe approach in the book is really to say look there is this data and heres a bunch of stuff in the book where i can tell you something about that data and you can use it but youll then need these other pieces but these other pieces arent something nebulous like how do i feel about it a lot of them are also really practical facts like what does my schedule look like if my kids do these two activities two hours away from each other at the same time on thursday someone will need to drive each of them thats it and thats going to be part of your logistics so the insight in the book is to say its not just the data its this other piece but this other piece isnt something that we cant wrangle its something we can wrangle in the same wayp pemfor the full conversation including why oster thinks optimism is underrated spellcheck is overrated and why theres so much to love about every stage of parenting check out a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankthe full conversation on the behavioral design podcastaemp hr classwpblockseparator pemdisclosure aline holzwarth is a member of the center for advanced hindsight which has provided financial support to embehavioral scientistem as an organizational donor organizational donors do not play a role in the editorial decisions of the magazineemp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgdatadrivenparentingaconversationwithemilyosterfamilyfirmdatadriven parenting a conversation with emily ostera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgbehavioral scientistap

pimg sizesmaxwidth 1430px 100vw 1430px srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1430x794jpg width1430 alt srcsethttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzerjpg 1430w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer300x167jpg 300w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1024x569jpg 1024w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer768x426jpg 768w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height794p pp pemhow better data help parents better decisions thats question emily oster mission answer oster professor economics brown university author books datadriven parenting emexpecting betterem focused informed decisions pregnancy second emcribsheetem tackled early years parenting latest book ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankthe family firm datadriven guide better decision making early school yearsaem focuses notoriously tumultuous elementary yearsemp div classwpblockimagefigurea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankimg alt srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108ffcover199x300jpeg classwpimage33508afigurediv pemshe recently joined samuel salzer aline holzwarth ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycombehavioraldesignpodcast target_blankthe behavioral design podcasta emto discussem family firmem excerpt conversion covers oster feels important bring data decisionmaking strategies parenting reasons elementary age range trickier younger years family google doc feel offputting doesnt recording conversation relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankcan found hereaemp pemheather graci editorial teamemp div classwpblockspacerdiv pstrongsamuel salzer start interesting hear wrote books parenting hoped bring discussion hope different books worldstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong things im trying add books think missing discussion kind translation theres expert scientific consensus express people rarely try translate emwhyem think people like understand came conclusionp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongwhen come results science rarely frame inside decisions differently based thisstrongpblockquote pthe thing salient emfamily firmem bringing piece idea come results science rarely frame inside decisions differently based lot tools im trying people combine decisionmaking pieces data incorporate life like okay dont know thisp pstrongsamuel salzer main premises [in emfamily firmem] dont problem taking organized systematic approach decisionmaking work fail context home argue ways treat personal family decisions little bit like treat business decisions think environments bring different decisionmaking behavior usstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong think couple things isnt way socialized running households arrive work tell heres way arrive household dont begin theres deeper home people love temptation think love people kind work shouldnt sit meeting spouse going organize life love otherwere going work togetherp psome tools talk aboutyou shared google docs send follow emailspeople like married pstrongaline holzwarth economiststrongp pstrongemily osterstrong yeah economist feeling impersonal people reluctant adopt tools theres little bit shift useful hey happy loving emotionally rich relationship people use google forms bring conflict think fact able nicer relationship person im resentful arent things way said told things important didnt google docsp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthere temptation think love people kind work shouldnt sit meeting spousestrongstrongstrongpblockquote pstrongsamuel salzer friends behavioral scientist got conflict based sending calendly link catch shes like supposed way friends come similar kinds reactionsstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong people reaction think thing friends step spouse explain people jesse trying work frequently conversation send followup email conversation agreed following bullet points let know im missing love jessep pi explain people theyre like valuable later theres ive missed conversation like oh hey isnt remember thought said different later yell yell generates common efficiency knowledge lets forward making better decisions spaces explain people reflect little bit like actually doesnt sound terrible thought said itp pstrongaline holzwarthstrong strongin book present framework fs helping mediumsized decisions twosentence version fs framing question factfinding coming final decision following upstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong idea people way think mediumsized decisions structure decisionmaking decisions like thiswhat school pick smaller things activitytend peoples brains space find moments focus good way decisions idea decisions need focus time dont need emallem timep pstrongsamuel salzer im curious [four steps] noticed people find intuitive people struggle moststrongp pstrongemily osterstrong people hard time saying alternatives easy harder decision schedule time think right decision p blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongpeople hard time saying alternatives easy harder thatstrongpblockquote pstrongaline holzwarth factfinding step incorporates personal criteria people bring table things cover whats budget time logistics involved drive different places cant timestrongp pstrongwhat thoughts combined approach general sort meshing data preference think pulling help people better decisionsstrongp pstrongemily osterstrong think big challengethis parenting emcribsheetem write little kids theres framing think effect sizes decisions lot data tells initially resistant writing book older kids age range case data logistics family preferences heterogeneity kidsp pthe approach book look data heres bunch stuff book tell data use youll need pieces pieces arent nebulous like feel lot practical facts like schedule look like kids activities hours away time thursday need drive thats thats going logistics insight book data piece piece isnt cant wrangle wrangle wayp pemfor conversation including oster thinks optimism underrated spellcheck overrated theres love stage parenting check relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankthe conversation behavioral design podcastaemp hr classwpblockseparator pemdisclosure aline holzwarth member center advanced hindsight provided financial support embehavioral scientistem organizational donor organizational donors play role editorial decisions magazineemp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgdatadrivenparentingaconversationwithemilyosterfamilyfirmdatadriven parenting conversation emily ostera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgbehavioral scientistap

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The cultural life extension query

pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomrebeccamakkaistatus1428925599914016769 target_blankrebecca makkai asksap blockquotepyou have the power to grant fifty more productive years to an artist of any discipline writer musician painter etc who died too young who do you pickpblockquote pmy answer was schubert and here is whyp p1 schubert was just starting to peak but we already have a significant amount of toptier mozart  and i take mozart to be the number one contender for the designation  schubert composed nine symphonies and number seven still wasnt that great  some people think number eight was unfinished  number nine is incredible  furthermore i believe the nature of his genius would have aged well with the manp p2 john keats is a reasonable contender but perhaps his extant peak output is sufficient to capture the nature of his geniusp p3 after the 19821984 period there was decline in the quality of basquiats output  his was the genius of a young man and drugs would have interfered with his further achievement in any casep p4 buddy holly had already peaked and he didnt quite have the skills or ambition to have morphed into something significantly more  no one from popular music in that time period didp p5 frank ramsey is a reasonable choice but i am more excited about schubert we still would have ended up with the same neoclassical economicsp p6 perhaps kurt cobains genius was that of a young man as well  nonetheless he is in my top ten if only for curiosity reasons  hank williams and hendrix are competitors toop p7 carel fabritius anyonep pa relattachment wpatt81778 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomattachment_id81778img sizesmaxwidth 982px 100vw 982px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg alt width982 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg 1965w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius300x233jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1024x796jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius768x597jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1536x1194jpg 1536w classwpimage81778 height764awho else  caravaggio  egon schiele  eva hesse  i feel they all have styles that would have aged well unlike say with jim morrison  seurat  thomas chatterton i can pass on maybe stephen crane or sylvia plath from the side of the writersp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theculturallifeextensionqueryhtmlthe cultural life extension querya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomrebeccamakkaistatus1428925599914016769 target_blankrebecca makkai asksap blockquotepyou power grant productive years artist discipline writer musician painter etc died young pickpblockquote pmy answer schubert whyp p1 schubert starting peak significant toptier mozart mozart number contender designation schubert composed symphonies number seven wasnt great people think number unfinished number incredible furthermore believe nature genius aged manp p2 john keats reasonable contender extant peak output sufficient capture nature geniusp p3 19821984 period decline quality basquiats output genius young man drugs interfered achievement casep p4 buddy holly peaked didnt skills ambition morphed significantly popular music time period didp p5 frank ramsey reasonable choice excited schubert ended neoclassical economicsp p6 kurt cobains genius young man nonetheless curiosity reasons hank williams hendrix competitors toop p7 carel fabritius anyonep pa relattachment wpatt81778 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomattachment_id81778img sizesmaxwidth 982px 100vw 982px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg alt width982 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg 1965w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius300x233jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1024x796jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius768x597jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1536x1194jpg 1536w classwpimage81778 height764awho caravaggio egon schiele eva hesse feel styles aged unlike jim morrison seurat thomas chatterton pass maybe stephen crane sylvia plath writersp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theculturallifeextensionqueryhtmlthe cultural life extension querya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

612576d4c6c9840cea8591e3

More on Australia, from an MR reader

pa random observation in four sentencesp ol lii continue to see huge numbers of australians eg politicians like dan andrews the victorian premier and also huge numbers of random people on my facebook say if we dont continue to lockdown the health system will be overwhelmed we have no choiceli limost of the atrisk population in australia has already been vaccinated with at least one dose which reduces hospitalisationmortality risk by something like 70 or perhaps even better in practice the smh today reports 94 people in icu 83 unvaccinated 11 have one dose and 50 of adults have 1 dose and obviously are very negatively selected on ageli lithe us never saw widespread overwhelming of the hospital system lots of media reports of hospitals in x about to hit capacity but it to date has always been one of those just wait two weeks thingsli lipeople in australia widely believe the quality of the us hospitalhealthcare system is substantially inferior to the single payer hospitalhealthcare system in australiali ol pit would seem extremely difficult for these four things to mutually coexistp pstrongtc againstrong here is a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomcharlieemmaukstatus1429471216260235266s21 target_blanka short video from australiaa how about some astrazeneca and a bit of testing regime instead  a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomemmavitzstatus1429965937772429314photo1 target_blankgg is righta that the video resembles a bad dystopian science fiction movie from past decades  you will note that some segments of the american intelligentsia are so invested in criticizing the us red state approach and so warm toward collectivist mandates that they wont raise a peep about what is going on herep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108moreonaustraliafromanmrreaderhtmlmore on australia from an mr readera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa random observation sentencesp ol lii continue huge numbers australians eg politicians like dan andrews victorian premier huge numbers random people facebook dont continue lockdown health system overwhelmed choiceli limost atrisk population australia vaccinated dose reduces hospitalisationmortality risk like 70 better practice smh today reports 94 people icu 83 unvaccinated 11 dose 50 adults 1 dose obviously negatively selected ageli lithe saw widespread overwhelming hospital system lots media reports hospitals x hit capacity date wait weeks thingsli lipeople australia widely believe quality hospitalhealthcare system substantially inferior single payer hospitalhealthcare system australiali ol pit extremely difficult things mutually coexistp pstrongtc againstrong relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomcharlieemmaukstatus1429471216260235266s21 target_blanka short video australiaa astrazeneca bit testing regime instead relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomemmavitzstatus1429965937772429314photo1 target_blankgg righta video resembles bad dystopian science fiction movie past decades note segments american intelligentsia invested criticizing red state approach warm collectivist mandates wont raise peep going herep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108moreonaustraliafromanmrreaderhtmlmore australia mr readera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

6125771dc6c9840cea8591e6

Thailand and The WHO on Fractional Dosing

pthailand will a hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificthailandexploreinjectingcoronavirusvaccinesunderskin20210819study fractional dosingap blockquote p datatestidparagraph0thailand is studying the possibility of injecting coronavirus vaccines under the skin to try to stretch its limited supply a health official said on thursday as the country races to inoculate the public faster amid a worsening epidemicp p datatestidparagraph1our previous experience shows that intradermal injections uses 25 of a muscular injection but triggers the same level of immunity head of the medical science department supakit sirilak told reportersp blockquote pi am also pleased that the whos sage has issued an a hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementondosesparingstrategiesforcovid19vaccinesfractionatedvaccinedosesinterim statement on fractional dosesap blockquotepwho with support of the strategic advisory group of experts sage on immunization and its covid19 vaccines working group is reviewing the role of fractionating doses as a dosesparing strategy in light of global vaccine supply constraints sage is continuously reviewing the literature and has reached out to vaccine manufacturers and the research community for available informationp pwhile sage acknowledges the potential public health benefits of dosesparing strategies to increase vaccine supply and accelerate populationlevel vaccination coverage and possibly also a reduction in reactogenicity sage considers there is currently insufficient evidence to recommend the use of fractional doses any use of a fractional dose at this point in time constitutes an offlabel use of the vaccine sage encourages research in the area with a particular emphasis on research into using fractionated doses as potential boosters and fractional doses in children and adolescents  programmatic and operational considerations should be considered from the startpblockquote pthe statement is reasonable but could have used some costbenefit analysis given shortages id push for a challenge trial or some field trials i agree that if we are to have boosters and to vaccinate young children we should be looking very hard at fractional doses as they are likely to be sufficient for purpose and to preserve as much supply as possible for the rest of the worldp pby the way i think you can also see some a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108statusquobiashtmlstatus quo biasa in the a hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementoncovid19vaccineboosterdoseswhos position on boostersa they are not yet enthusiastic about increasing supply with fractional doses but they are very negative about reducing supply with boosters what a miracle that the status quo is just rightp blockquotepin the context of ongoing global vaccine supply constraints administration of booster doses will exacerbate inequities by driving up demand and consuming scarce supply while priority populations in some countries or subnational settings have not yet received a primary vaccination seriespblockquote pthe who also doesnt note that if developed countries go for boosters then the case for fractional doses elsewhere to make use of the even more limited supply is likely even strongerp pheres my paper with coauthors a hrefhttpsbfiuchicagoeduworkingpaper202168on fractional dosesap phat tip witoldp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whoonfractionaldosinghtmlthailand and the who on fractional dosinga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthailand hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificthailandexploreinjectingcoronavirusvaccinesunderskin20210819study fractional dosingap blockquote p datatestidparagraph0thailand studying possibility injecting coronavirus vaccines skin try stretch limited supply health official said thursday country races inoculate public faster amid worsening epidemicp p datatestidparagraph1our previous experience shows intradermal injections uses 25 muscular injection triggers level immunity head medical science department supakit sirilak told reportersp blockquote pi pleased whos sage issued hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementondosesparingstrategiesforcovid19vaccinesfractionatedvaccinedosesinterim statement fractional dosesap blockquotepwho support strategic advisory group experts sage immunization covid19 vaccines working group reviewing role fractionating doses dosesparing strategy light global vaccine supply constraints sage continuously reviewing literature reached vaccine manufacturers research community available informationp pwhile sage acknowledges potential public health benefits dosesparing strategies increase vaccine supply accelerate populationlevel vaccination coverage possibly reduction reactogenicity sage considers currently insufficient evidence recommend use fractional doses use fractional dose point time constitutes offlabel use vaccine sage encourages research area particular emphasis research fractionated doses potential boosters fractional doses children adolescents programmatic operational considerations considered startpblockquote pthe statement reasonable costbenefit analysis given shortages id push challenge trial field trials agree boosters vaccinate young children looking hard fractional doses likely sufficient purpose preserve supply possible rest worldp pby way think hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108statusquobiashtmlstatus quo biasa hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementoncovid19vaccineboosterdoseswhos position boostersa enthusiastic increasing supply fractional doses negative reducing supply boosters miracle status quo rightp blockquotepin context ongoing global vaccine supply constraints administration booster doses exacerbate inequities driving demand consuming scarce supply priority populations countries subnational settings received primary vaccination seriespblockquote pthe doesnt note developed countries boosters case fractional doses use limited supply likely strongerp pheres paper coauthors hrefhttpsbfiuchicagoeduworkingpaper202168on fractional dosesap phat tip witoldp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whoonfractionaldosinghtmlthailand fractional dosinga appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61257731c6c9840cea8591e8

How to tell when you are reading a truly great history book

pwhen it treatment of secondary topics is better than what you can find anywhere else  for instance i am reading alexander mikaberidzes a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomnapoleonicwarsglobalhistorydp0199951063refsr_1_2dchild1keywordsnapoleonicwarsqid1629751822sr82 target_blankthe napoleonic wars a global historya  just in the span of a few pages his treatment of dessalines and his plan to rule haiti is excellent  then his discussion of the french motivations for allowing the louisiana purchase is amazing yet a page later his take on the evolution of the swiss confederation while offered only in passing is more instructive than ive found in books written solely on switzerlandp pthis is in the very top tier of history books i ever have read  highly recommendedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howtotellwhenyouarereadingatrulygreathistorybookhtmlhow to tell when you are reading a truly great history booka appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pwhen treatment secondary topics better find instance reading alexander mikaberidzes relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomnapoleonicwarsglobalhistorydp0199951063refsr_1_2dchild1keywordsnapoleonicwarsqid1629751822sr82 target_blankthe napoleonic wars global historya span pages treatment dessalines plan rule haiti excellent discussion french motivations allowing louisiana purchase amazing page later evolution swiss confederation offered passing instructive ive found books written solely switzerlandp pthis tier history books read highly recommendedp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108howtotellwhenyouarereadingatrulygreathistorybookhtmlhow tell reading truly great history booka appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61257738c6c9840cea8591e9

A temporary equilibrium only?

blockquotepthe tax policy center estimates that last year nearly 107 million households or about 61 percent owed no income tax or even received tax credits from the government howard gleckman a senior fellow at the tax policy center a hrefhttpswwwtaxpolicycenterorgtaxvoxcovid19pandemicdrovehugetemporaryincreasehouseholdsdidnotpayfederalincometaxnoted last weeka the spike is likely to be temporary however the share of nonpayers will decline to about 102 million or 57 percent this yearp pn recent prepandemic years the percentage of tax returns with no income tax liability has been closer to 44 percent in tax policy centers figures though it has trended upward over timep pthe percentage of filers with no income liability has generally increased from where it was nearly 40 years ago the national taxpayers union foundation a hrefhttpswwwntuorgfoundationtaxpagewhodoesntpayincometaxesreporteda in 2018 this trend is indicative of a progressive income tax code under which higherincome earners pay a larger share of taxes while lowincome earners are generally shielded from significant income tax liabilitiespblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsreasoncom20210823thepandemichasmostamericanspayingnofederalincometaxesutm_mediumemail target_blankmore from reasona via ray lopez  in so many other areas the pandemic has accelerated trends that already were presentp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108atemporaryequilibriumonlyhtmla temporary equilibrium onlya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepthe tax policy center estimates year nearly 107 million households 61 percent owed income tax received tax credits government howard gleckman senior fellow tax policy centera hrefhttpswwwtaxpolicycenterorgtaxvoxcovid19pandemicdrovehugetemporaryincreasehouseholdsdidnotpayfederalincometaxnoted weeka spike likely temporary share nonpayers decline 102 million 57 percent yearp pn recent prepandemic years percentage tax returns income tax liability closer 44 percent tax policy centers figures trended upward timep pthe percentage filers income liability generally increased nearly 40 years ago national taxpayers union foundationa hrefhttpswwwntuorgfoundationtaxpagewhodoesntpayincometaxesreportedain 2018 trend indicative progressive income tax code higherincome earners pay larger share taxes lowincome earners generally shielded significant income tax liabilitiespblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpsreasoncom20210823thepandemichasmostamericanspayingnofederalincometaxesutm_mediumemail target_blankmore reasona ray lopez areas pandemic accelerated trends presentp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108atemporaryequilibriumonlyhtmla temporary equilibrium onlya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

61257753c6c9840cea8591eb

Why I became trans

ptranssexuals like me never asked to be at the centre of one of the most toxic debates in society we just wanted to transition and get on with our lives but what was once a niche medical condition has become a civil rights issue so big that it now challenges our understanding of what it means to be a emmanem or emwomanemp ptransgender ideologues tell us that everybody has a gender identity an innate and immutable feeling of maleness and femaleness that determines whether we are women or men or perhaps something else if that conflicts with the sex assigned to you at birth then come join us under the transgender umbrella we will even give you a flag to make sure you feel specialp pbut what if gender identity is bunkum to the true faithful who dutifully chant transwomen are women even asking the question is tantamount to blasphemyp divdiv pthe term gender identity was a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukeconomyenvironmentalaccountsarticleswhatisthedifferencebetweensexandgender20190221definitionsanddifferences target_blankcoined bya robert stoller in 1964 he a relnoopener hrefhttpspsycnetapaorgrecord196601754001 target_blankdescribeda it as a congenital perhaps inherited biological force but evidence is lacking a relnoopener hrefhttpsmediumcomarcdigitalwhatisgenderidentity10ce0da71999 target_blankasa a relnoopener hrefhttpwebmiteduabyrnewww target_blankalex byrnea professor of philosophy at mit has observed if there is some kind of gender identity that is universal in humans and which causes dysphoria when mismatched with sex it remains elusivep prather like the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbritannicacomscienceethertheoreticalsubstance target_blankluminiferous ethera of the 19th century a hypothetical substance used to explain the transmission of light gender identity was invented rather than discovered but when einstein showed that ether was unnecessary to explain its existence that idea was abandoned presumably then if transsexualism can be explained without a mysterious biological force gender identity can join it in the history booksp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages826418482scalede16293873874951e1629467582538300x160jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarh5why did sadiq khans office fire meh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspanbyspan joan smithapdivadiv psince the whole debate rests on the distinction between men and women it makes sense to consider emthe differences between themem in humans adult males tend to be taller while females tend to have wider hips but the crucial difference which defines male and female in emanyem species is the production or potential for production of one of two gametes ova in females and sperm in malesp phaving fathered three children in the usual way there can be no doubt which gametes i produced i am male and hence i am a manp pso why am i also transsexual what could have caused psychological distress so severe that i felt i had no choice but to transition at the time nine years ago the urge to change not only my social presentation but also my body was irresistible but can this be explained by differences in psychology rather than a mysterious forcep pmale and female psychologies are a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0029265 target_blanknot the samea the most obvious difference is sexual orientation according to the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukpeoplepopulationandcommunityculturalidentitysexualitydatasetssexualidentityuk target_blankoffice of national statisticsa 934 of men are attracted to women while 939 of women are attracted to men but to attract partners men and women also signal sexually in grooming dress and presentation and they tend to do it differently no doubt some of this will be socially conditioned but that cannot explain our observations of other species peacocks not only possess distinctive plumage they show it offp pin her bookstrongstrong a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone the story of the hormone that dominates and divides usemaem emcarole hooven currently the codirector of undergraduate studies in human evolutionary biology at harvard builds a persuasive case that testosterone emin utero emaffects the psychology as well as the physiology of the developing embryo she tells me however that unlike other species what particular [sexual] signals we use are heavily dependent on culturep plike sexual orientation sexualem semignalling applies differently to the two sexes but it is also overt and pervasive extending far beyond clothes and makeup even the words emmanem and emwomanem evoke their sexual signals when we hear a real man we dont picture an authentic producer of small gametes we think of a man with sexually attractive testosteronedriven male qualities strong and tough and probably not wearing a dressp pand so sexual signalling is more than mere gender expression while gender is a poorly defined term and rooted in culture sex is the reason our species is here sexual attraction involves two vectors sexual orientation is the sex we are attracted to and sexual signalling is how we make ourselves attractive neither can be disconnected from sex and the biological impetus to reproducep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages73539617scalede1629313833906300x203jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarh5dont blame testosterone for male violenceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspanbyspan julie bindelapdivadiv pjust as people with an atypical sexual orientation can be labelled as gay those driven to atypical sexual signalling can be labelled as trans so isnt sexual signalling just gender identity by another name yes and nop pyes it is an innate quality that is hardwired into us it is not something that we can choose and it can lead to transsexualism if we are driven to signal in the way typical of the other sex rather than our own but no sexual signalling does emnotem supplant biological sex when transgender activists chant transwomen are women they are in effect demanding that gender identity replaces biological sex when we demarcate men and women the deleterious impact of that approach on female people a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticlewarofwordsriskswipingwomenfromourlanguagedjhp2mwjg target_blankbirthing bodiesa according to one female health charity is profoundp psexual signalling is also an observable reality and it is a starting point to understand emwhyem some people are trans there may be multiple different reasons but i will focus on the group i know most about heterosexual males who transitioned in midlifep pnot only can our maleness not be wished away we are members of the sex that produces sperm after all i would claim that the reason why this group wants to wear dresses and makeup grow out our hair and develop breasts is linked inextricably to our maleness to quote another transsexual anne a lawrence we are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktrappedmensbodiesautogynephilictranssexualismdp1461451817 target_blankmen trapped in mens bodiesa that was the title of lawrences book that contained a series of narratives written by autogynephilic maleto female transsexualsp pautogynephilia was a term introduced in 1989 by the americancanadian sexologist ray blanchard blanchard told me that autogynephilia denotes a natal males tendency to be sexually aroused by the thought or image of himself as a woman he added in the western hemisphere and englishspeaking commonwealth countries the overwhelming majority of adult natal males presenting with gender dysphoria are of the autogynephilic typep pits not difficult to conceive why autogynephilia can lead to severe psychological distress in heterosexual men attracted to their own bodies because their sexual and romantic interest is directed inwards a target location error a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomblanchardphdstatus1006180220183904256langen target_blankaccording to blanchard a  they respond by sexually signalling to themselves but while their interest is in females they are heterosexual their bodies are male clothing may help to create an illusion of femaleness but for some medical transition may seem to be the only way to square the circlep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages1052439366scalede16279151904381300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarh5how artists lost their courageh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspanbyspan jess de wahlsapdivadiv pthis scientific approach to just one form of maletofemale transsexualism is a world away from a metaphysical claim that transwomen are women but the concept of gender identity has been comforting and politically useful for autogynephilic transsexuals in a society that stigmatises unusual male sexuality unsurprisingly blanchards theory provokes a very strong reaction in somep pit should not however be ignored gender identity has caused significant collateral damage to a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticleitfeelslikeconversiontherapyforgaychildrensayclinicianspvsckdvq2 target_blankchildrena and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwindependentieentertainmentbooksgirlswhowouldbeboystheriseinteengenderdysphoria39975855html target_blankadolescentsa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesthetransgenderwaronwomen11553640683 target_blankwomens rightsa a relnoopener hrefhttpsbariweisssubstackcompmedschoolsarenowdenyingbiological target_blankbiomedical sciencea and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtelegraphcouknews20200214policecomparedstasigestapojudgerulesinterferedfreedom target_blankwestern political lifea moreover  it is as unnecessary as the ether transsexuals and other gender nonconforming people do not need to invent an innate gender identity to understand ourselvesp pwe just have a need to communicate ourselves sexually signal as other human beings do just in a way more typical of the opposite sex there may be a host of reasons why that happens of which autogynephilia is just one but gender identity explains nothing worse it hinders exploration into the conditions that make us the people we arep a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whyibecametransappcommentsview 24 commentsa

ptranssexuals like asked centre toxic debates society wanted transition lives niche medical condition civil rights issue big challenges understanding means emmanem emwomanemp ptransgender ideologues tell everybody gender identity innate immutable feeling maleness femaleness determines women men conflicts sex assigned birth come join transgender umbrella flag sure feel specialp pbut gender identity bunkum true faithful dutifully chant transwomen women asking question tantamount blasphemyp divdiv pthe term gender identity relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukeconomyenvironmentalaccountsarticleswhatisthedifferencebetweensexandgender20190221definitionsanddifferences target_blankcoined bya robert stoller 1964 relnoopener hrefhttpspsycnetapaorgrecord196601754001 target_blankdescribeda congenital inherited biological force evidence lacking relnoopener hrefhttpsmediumcomarcdigitalwhatisgenderidentity10ce0da71999 target_blankasa relnoopener hrefhttpwebmiteduabyrnewww target_blankalex byrnea professor philosophy mit observedif kind gender identity universal humans causes dysphoria mismatched sex remains elusivep prather like relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbritannicacomscienceethertheoreticalsubstance target_blankluminiferous ethera 19th century hypothetical substance explain transmission light gender identity invented discovered einstein showed ether unnecessary explain existence idea abandoned presumably transsexualism explained mysterious biological force gender identity join history booksp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages826418482scalede16293873874951e1629467582538300x160jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarh5why sadiq khans office fire meh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspanbyspan joan smithapdivadiv psince debate rests distinction men women makes sense consider emthe differences themem humans adult males tend taller females tend wider hips crucial difference defines male female emanyem species production potential production gametes ova females sperm malesp phaving fathered children usual way doubt gametes produced male manp pso transsexual caused psychological distress severe felt choice transition time years ago urge change social presentation body irresistible explained differences psychology mysterious forcep pmale female psychologies relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0029265 target_blanknot samea obvious difference sexual orientation according relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukpeoplepopulationandcommunityculturalidentitysexualitydatasetssexualidentityuk target_blankoffice national statisticsa 934 men attracted women 939 women attracted men attract partners men women signal sexually grooming dress presentation tend differently doubt socially conditioned explain observations species peacocks possess distinctive plumage offp pin bookstrongstrong relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone story hormone dominates divides usemaem emcarole hooven currently codirector undergraduate studies human evolutionary biology harvard builds persuasive case testosterone emin utero emaffects psychology physiology developing embryo tells unlike species particular [sexual] signals use heavily dependent culturep plike sexual orientation sexualem semignalling applies differently sexes overt pervasive extending far clothes makeup words emmanem emwomanem evoke sexual signals hear real man dont picture authentic producer small gametes think man sexually attractive testosteronedriven male qualities strong tough probably wearing dressp pand sexual signalling mere gender expression gender poorly defined term rooted culture sex reason species sexual attraction involves vectors sexual orientation sex attracted sexual signalling attractive disconnected sex biological impetus reproducep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages73539617scalede1629313833906300x203jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarh5dont blame testosterone male violenceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspanbyspan julie bindelapdivadiv pjust people atypical sexual orientation labelled gay driven atypical sexual signalling labelled trans isnt sexual signalling gender identity yes nop pyes innate quality hardwired choose lead transsexualism driven signal way typical sex sexual signalling emnotem supplant biological sex transgender activists chant transwomen women effect demanding gender identity replaces biological sex demarcate men women deleterious impact approach female people relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticlewarofwordsriskswipingwomenfromourlanguagedjhp2mwjg target_blankbirthing bodiesa according female health charity profoundp psexual signalling observable reality starting point understand emwhyem people trans multiple different reasons focus group know heterosexual males transitioned midlifep pnot maleness wished away members sex produces sperm claim reason group wants wear dresses makeup grow hair develop breasts linked inextricably maleness quote transsexual anne lawrence relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktrappedmensbodiesautogynephilictranssexualismdp1461451817 target_blankmen trapped mens bodiesa title lawrences book contained series narratives written autogynephilic maleto female transsexualsp pautogynephilia term introduced 1989 americancanadian sexologist ray blanchard blanchard told autogynephilia denotes natal males tendency sexually aroused thought image woman added western hemisphere englishspeaking commonwealth countries overwhelming majority adult natal males presenting gender dysphoria autogynephilic typep pits difficult conceive autogynephilia lead severe psychological distress heterosexual men attracted bodies sexual romantic interest directed inwards target location error relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomblanchardphdstatus1006180220183904256langen target_blankaccording blanchard respond sexually signalling interest females heterosexual bodies male clothing help create illusion femaleness medical transition way square circlep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages1052439366scalede16279151904381300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarh5how artists lost courageh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspanbyspan jess de wahlsapdivadiv pthis scientific approach form maletofemale transsexualism world away metaphysical claim transwomen women concept gender identity comforting politically useful autogynephilic transsexuals society stigmatises unusual male sexuality unsurprisingly blanchards theory provokes strong reaction somep pit ignored gender identity caused significant collateral damage relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticleitfeelslikeconversiontherapyforgaychildrensayclinicianspvsckdvq2 target_blankchildrena relnoopener hrefhttpswwwindependentieentertainmentbooksgirlswhowouldbeboystheriseinteengenderdysphoria39975855html target_blankadolescentsa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesthetransgenderwaronwomen11553640683 target_blankwomens rightsa relnoopener hrefhttpsbariweisssubstackcompmedschoolsarenowdenyingbiological target_blankbiomedical sciencea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtelegraphcouknews20200214policecomparedstasigestapojudgerulesinterferedfreedom target_blankwestern political lifea unnecessary ether transsexuals gender nonconforming people need invent innate gender identity understand ourselvesp pwe need communicate sexually signal human beings way typical opposite sex host reasons happens autogynephilia gender identity explains worse hinders exploration conditions people arep hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whyibecametransappcommentsview 24 commentsa

61257753c6c9840cea8591ec

Is this the end of white America?

pfor years the idea of a great replacement that white americans and europeans are purposefully being replaced through immigration has obsessed many on the extreme right its a fringe belief but concerns will doubtless have been exacerbated by a recent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomdcmdva20210812censusdataraceethnicityneighborhoods target_blankheadlinea in the emwashington postem number of white people falls for first timep pthe article stated that the results of last years census marked the first time the absolute number of people who identify as white alone has shrunk since a census started being taken in 1790 similar refrains rang out across numerous other news outlets a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwaxioscomamericaswhitepopulationexpectedtoshrinkd3d8f07e2121498a8fb8f8073497524bhtml target_blankamericas white population set to shrinka a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlescensusracepopulationredistrictingchanges11628714807 target_blankamericas white population shrank for the first timea a relnoopener hrefhttpsslatecomnewsandpolitics2021082020censusshrinkingcountiesvotedtrumphtml target_blankvast stretches of america are shrinking almost all of them voted for trumpap divdiv pthere was jubilation among the left michael moore called the announcement a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommmflintstatus1426028604723445762s20 target_blankthe best day ever in us historya for cultural radicals such as he the census marked the end of white supremacy and the start of a millennium of progressive dominance and racial equity similarly neoconturnednevertrumper jennifer rubin gushed that a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjrubinbloggerstatus1425899248269266947s20 target_blankthis is fabulous news now we need to prevent minority white ruleap pmeanwhile on the right tucker carlson while condemning the lefts gloating went on to a relnoopener hrefhttpsvideofoxnewscomv6267862568001spshowclips target_blankclaima without evidence that the opioid crisis in white communities explained the decline likewise the news will only confirm views held by the a relnoopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsthememo567841thememofallinwhitepopulationcouldaddfueltonativistfire target_blankfarrighta whereby white nationalists have warned that white decline is being orchestrated by globalist elites and minorities and which will lead to dire consequences for white people and their childrenp phowever despite the charged rhetoric doing the rounds the number of people american society considers to be white has almost certainly emincreasedem since 2010 white america is not shrinking and whites are not being racially supplanted its a false narrative with serious political repercussions a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0185389 target_blankstudya after a relnoopener hrefhttpsosfiokmsncdownload target_blankstudya has found that reminding white americans about their impending minority status shifts their policy attitudes in a conservative direction and increases support for rightwing populism so while this announcement may make the cultural left feel good it largely benefits the trumpist rightp pbut what do the actual findings indicate isnt the census reporting the facts as they stand that the number of white people in the country is declining well its certainly true 51 million fewer nonhispanic americans ticked their race as white alone in 2020 compared to 2010 but to take this number out of context is to paint a misleading picture of social realityp pany quantitative social science student knows that when you change the wording of a survey question you can alter often substantially the pattern of responses the 2010 census questionnaire offered single tick boxes for white and black the 2020 version was changed so that people were not only asked to tick a box but also prompted to write their ethnic group in a text box below research from pew a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgsocialtrends20210514americansoriginsandconnectionstotheirfamiliesroots target_blankshowsa that around 15 of black and white respondents did not write anything in the text box or they wrote something that doesnt make sense hispanic americans were also told for the first time that hispanic is not a racesupa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaen19184511asup when asked to define theirs it is likely this prompted people to question their choice of which box to mark opting for a multiple race or other race category instead this would depress the number ticking the white alone boxp pin addition to the change in census wording the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcambridgeorgcorebookswhiteidentitypolitics5c330931ff4cf246fca043ab14f5c626 target_blankpoliticisation of white identitya in the trump era may also have led liberals to distance themselves from the category the 2010s bore witness to a sharp a hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201932218259865greatawokeningwhiteliberalsracepollingtrump2020risea in cultural progressivism during this decade the share of liberal democratic white citizens saying they felt a relnoopener hrefhttpswwweconomistcomspecialreport20210514thesoulsofwhitefolk target_blankcold towards white peoplea increased by roughly 10p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages1215364978scalede16272284365731300x177jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarh5what liberals get wrong about raceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv ptheres also the fact that many a relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgdictionaryenglishwasp target_blankwaspa americans such as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwfactcheckorg201810thefactsonelizabethwarrensdnatest target_blankelizabeth warrena have some native american ancestry and some such as a relnoopener hrefhttpsethnicelebscombradpitt target_blankbrad pitta believe they do even when such claims cannot be substantiated similarly since 8 in 10 black americans have white or other racial backgrounds in their family history and 1 in 10 white southerners has a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201412227431391guesswherewhiteamericanshavethemostafricanancestry target_blankafrican ancestrya the scope for expansion in the mixed or other race categories is potentially enormousp pso did these changes affect what people wrote on the 2020 census much of this depends on three things whether their answers reflect a their own identity b how they think others see them or c some judgement about the preponderance of panethnic origins in their backgroundp pfigure 1 below shows that the number of americans ticking white alone as their race dropped by 193 million between 2010 and 2020 while the number ticking white alongside some other category increased by 236 million much of this shifting took place within the hispanic population but even among nonhispanics white alone declined by 51 millionp piframe srchttpsdatawrapperdwcdnnetrnigm2 titlechange in total population by group height545iframep pat the same time the census recorded a rise of 248 million in the two or more races group and a jump of 281 million in some other race the increase of 36 million in the population of those with mixed american indian and alaska native and other racial background is also noteworthy given that this group numbered just 23 million in the 2010 census hardly any of this shift can be explained by aboriginal birth or death ratesp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105fireboy1300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarh5israels population time bombh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv pindeed its striking that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgfacttank20150611americanindianandwhitebutnotmultiracial target_blankmosta biracial white and native indian americans are effectively considered white and view themselves as such meanwhile the assimilation process means that with each generation a hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorghispanic20171220hispanicidentityfadesacrossgenerationsasimmigrantconnectionsfallawayfewera descendants of hispanic and asian immigrants especially those of mixed background identify with their origins it is therefore difficult to conceive that the number of americans considered white is in declinep pyet none of this means there is emnothingem happening with the nations ethnic demography the balance between white births and deaths taking into account the small flow of some 200000 white immigrants a year is nearly equal the nonhispanic white population using the old question was essentially a hrefhttpswwwcensusgovnewsroompresskits2020populationestimatesdetailedhtmlflatlininga between 2010 and 2019 white americans have maintained a north european a relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabiesvsimmigrantsmustwereallychoose target_blankfertility patterna with a total fertility rate between 15 and 2 since the seventiesp pthough relatively high for the developed world this is still below the magic 21 replacement level the unmixed white american population along with white ethnic majorities in the rest of the developed world will start to gradually decline in the decades ahead but the big demographic story of the 2010s wasnt about white americans but the big a relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabybustfertilityisdecliningthemostamongminoritywomen target_blankdrop in hispanic fertilitya which is rapidly converging with the more stable white rate so even while the share of unmixed whites will probably dip below 50 by 2050 the share who are considered socially white is likely to be a majority into the foreseeable futurep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202006gettyimages1184543313300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarh5why the rich are revoltingh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspanbyspan ed westapdivadiv peither way to be more informative the us census needs an update social scientists and pundits are interested in peoples subjective racial identity but we also want to know about the balance of objective racial categories the latter shapes peoples decisions about where to live who to marry who to vote for and can affect their life chances one option might be to ask people how others perceive their race in northern ireland peoples growing tendency to state their religion as none or not stated led census takers in 2011 to a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnisragovuksitesnisragovukfilespublicationsbackgroundtothereligionandreligionbroughtupinquestionsinthecensusandtheiranalysisin2001and2011pdf target_blankadd a questiona asking about the religion people were brought up inp pultimately though until the results of such a question show a real decline in those considered to be quotwhitequot the zeal to foreground the great replacement tells us more about ideological hopes and fears than any emerging social reality one of the few seeking to dispel such illusions is leading american sociologist of ethnicity richard alba however his important book a relnoopener hrefhttpspressprincetonedubookshardcover9780691201634thegreatdemographicillusion target_blankemthe great demographic illusionema failed to garner reviews because it a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcityjournalorgrichardalbaondemographicchangewallit_nosession1 target_blankdoesnt fita the prevailing narrative instead the media are attracted to demographic stories which heighten white threat perceptions gratifying progressives while increasing support for trumpismp pso while the definition of white may be blurring at the edges the white american majority isnt going anywherep div h6footnotes ol li for this survey hispanic origins are not racesquot was the wording alongside the what is your race questionli ol a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaappcommentsview 24 commentsah6div

pfor years idea great replacement white americans europeans purposefully replaced immigration obsessed extreme right fringe belief butconcerns doubtless exacerbated recenta relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomdcmdva20210812censusdataraceethnicityneighborhoods target_blankheadlinea emwashington postem number white people falls timep pthe article stated results years census marked time absolute number people identify white shrunk census started taken 1790 similar refrains rang numerous news outlets relnoopener hrefhttpswwwaxioscomamericaswhitepopulationexpectedtoshrinkd3d8f07e2121498a8fb8f8073497524bhtml target_blankamericas white population set shrinka relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlescensusracepopulationredistrictingchanges11628714807 target_blankamericas white population shrank timea relnoopener hrefhttpsslatecomnewsandpolitics2021082020censusshrinkingcountiesvotedtrumphtml target_blankvast stretches america shrinking voted trumpap divdiv pthere jubilation left michael moore called announcement relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommmflintstatus1426028604723445762s20 target_blankthe best day historya cultural radicals census marked end white supremacy start millennium progressive dominance racial equity similarly neoconturnednevertrumper jennifer rubin gushed relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjrubinbloggerstatus1425899248269266947s20 target_blankthis fabulous news need prevent minority white ruleap pmeanwhile right tucker carlson condemning lefts gloating went relnoopener hrefhttpsvideofoxnewscomv6267862568001spshowclips target_blankclaima evidence opioid crisis white communities explained decline likewise news confirm views held relnoopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsthememo567841thememofallinwhitepopulationcouldaddfueltonativistfire target_blankfarrighta white nationalists warned white decline orchestrated globalist elites minorities lead dire consequences white people childrenp phowever despite charged rhetoric rounds number people american society considers white certainly emincreasedem 2010 white america shrinking whites racially supplanted false narrative withserious political repercussions relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0185389 target_blankstudya relnoopener hrefhttpsosfiokmsncdownload target_blankstudya found reminding white americans impending minority status shifts policy attitudes conservative direction increases support rightwing populism announcement cultural left feel good largely benefits trumpist rightp pbut actual findings indicate isnt census reporting facts stand number white people country declining certainly true 51 million fewer nonhispanic americans ticked race white 2020 compared 2010 number context paint misleading picture social realityp pany quantitative social science student knows change wording survey question alter substantially pattern responses 2010 census questionnaire offered single tick boxes white black 2020 version changed people asked tick box prompted write ethnic group text box research pew relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgsocialtrends20210514americansoriginsandconnectionstotheirfamiliesroots target_blankshowsa 15 black white respondents write text box wrote doesnt sense hispanic americans told time hispanic racesupa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaen19184511asup asked define theirs likely prompted people question choice box mark opting multiple race race category instead depress number ticking white boxp pin addition change census wording relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcambridgeorgcorebookswhiteidentitypolitics5c330931ff4cf246fca043ab14f5c626 target_blankpoliticisation white identitya trump era led liberals distance category 2010s bore witness sharp hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201932218259865greatawokeningwhiteliberalsracepollingtrump2020risea cultural progressivism decade share liberal democratic white citizens saying felt relnoopener hrefhttpswwweconomistcomspecialreport20210514thesoulsofwhitefolk target_blankcold white peoplea increased roughly 10p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages1215364978scalede16272284365731300x177jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanmore authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarh5what liberals wrong raceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv ptheres fact relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgdictionaryenglishwasp target_blankwaspa americans relnoopener hrefhttpswwwfactcheckorg201810thefactsonelizabethwarrensdnatest target_blankelizabeth warrena native american ancestry relnoopener hrefhttpsethnicelebscombradpitt target_blankbrad pitta believe claims substantiated similarly 8 10 black americans white racial backgrounds family history 1 10 white southerners relnoopener hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201412227431391guesswherewhiteamericanshavethemostafricanancestry target_blankafrican ancestryathe scope expansion mixed race categories potentially enormousp pso changes affect people wrote 2020 census depends things answers reflecta identity b think c judgement preponderance panethnic origins backgroundp pfigure 1 shows number americans ticking white race dropped 193 million 2010 2020 number ticking white alongside category increased 236 million shifting took place hispanic population nonhispanics white declined 51 millionp piframe srchttpsdatawrapperdwcdnnetrnigm2 titlechange total population group height545iframep pat time census recorded rise 248 million races group jump 281 million race increase 36 million population mixed american indian alaska native racial background noteworthy given group numbered 23 million 2010 census hardly shift explained aboriginal birth death ratesp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105fireboy1300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanmore authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarh5israels population time bombh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv pindeed striking relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgfacttank20150611americanindianandwhitebutnotmultiracial target_blankmosta biracial white native indian americans effectively considered white view assimilation process means generation hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorghispanic20171220hispanicidentityfadesacrossgenerationsasimmigrantconnectionsfallawayfewera descendants hispanic asian immigrants especially mixed background identify origins difficult conceive number americans considered white declinep pyet means emnothingem happening nations ethnic demography balance white births deaths taking account small flow 200000 white immigrants year nearly equal nonhispanic white population old question essentially hrefhttpswwwcensusgovnewsroompresskits2020populationestimatesdetailedhtmlflatlininga 2010 2019 white americans maintained north european relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabiesvsimmigrantsmustwereallychoose target_blankfertility patterna total fertility rate 15 2 seventiesp pthough relatively high developed world magic 21 replacement level unmixed white american population white ethnic majorities rest developed world start gradually decline decades ahead big demographic story 2010s wasnt white americans big relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabybustfertilityisdecliningthemostamongminoritywomen target_blankdrop hispanic fertilitya rapidly converging stable white rate share unmixed whites probably dip 50 2050 share considered socially white likely majority foreseeable futurep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202006gettyimages1184543313300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarh5why rich revoltingh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspanbyspan ed westapdivadiv peither way informative census needs update social scientists pundits interested peoples subjective racial identity want know balance objective racial categories shapes peoples decisions live marry vote affect life chances option ask people perceive race northern ireland peoples growing tendency state religion stated led census takers 2011 relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnisragovuksitesnisragovukfilespublicationsbackgroundtothereligionandreligionbroughtupinquestionsinthecensusandtheiranalysisin2001and2011pdf target_blankadd questiona asking religion people brought inp pultimately results question real decline considered quotwhitequot zeal foreground great replacement tells ideological hopes fears emerging social reality seeking dispel illusions leading american sociologist ethnicity richard alba important book relnoopener hrefhttpspressprincetonedubookshardcover9780691201634thegreatdemographicillusion target_blankemthe great demographic illusionemafailed garner reviews relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcityjournalorgrichardalbaondemographicchangewallit_nosession1 target_blankdoesnt fita prevailing narrative instead media attracted demographic stories heighten white threat perceptions gratifying progressives increasing support trumpismp pso definition white blurring edges white american majority isnt going anywherep div h6footnotes ol lifor survey hispanic origins racesquot wording alongside race questionli ol hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaappcommentsview 24 commentsah6div

6126c8a6fcfe0170ea6bf5e2

The Delta Variant and Vaccine Protection

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg width600 alt srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg 600w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1300x300jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1500x500jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1150x150jpg 150w classwppostimage height600divpspan dirautowhats the deal with covid variants how well do the different covid vaccines protect against them today well tell you about the several variants including the delta variant that is prevalent in the us and well talk about the studies that have looked at vaccine efficacy against these variantsspanp p p piframe allowfullscreenallowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedt4vnlxiisey width500 height281iframep pa hrefhttpstwittercomdrtiff_phddrtiff_phdapthe post a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthedeltavariantandvaccineprotectionthe delta variant and vaccine protectiona first appeared on a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg width600 alt srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg 600w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1300x300jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1500x500jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1150x150jpg 150w classwppostimage height600divpspan dirautowhats deal covid variants different covid vaccines protect today tell variants including delta variant prevalent talk studies looked vaccine efficacy variantsspanp pp piframe allowfullscreenallowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedt4vnlxiisey width500 height281iframep pa hrefhttpstwittercomdrtiff_phddrtiff_phdapthe post hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthedeltavariantandvaccineprotectionthe delta variant vaccine protectiona appeared hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

6126c8abfcfe0170ea6bf5e4

My Conversation with Zeynep Tufekci

phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeszeyneptufekci target_blankthe audio video and transcripta  here is part of the summaryp blockquotepzeynep joined tyler to discuss problems with the media and the scientific establishment what made the lableak hypothesis unacceptable to talk about how her background in sociology was key to getting so many things right about the pandemic the pitfalls of academic contrarianism what max weber understood about public health crises the underrated aspects of kemel mustaphas regime how emgame of thronesem interested her as a sociologist until the final season what americans get wrong about turkey why internetfueled movements like the gezi protests fizzle out whether islamic fundamentalism is on the rise in turkey how shed try to persuade a covid19 vaccine skeptic whether public health authorities should ever lie for the greater good why she thinks america is actually less racist than europe how her background as a programmer affects her work as a sociologist the subject of her next book and morepblockquote phere is one excerptp blockquote pstrongcowen stronga relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500max webera  overrated or underrated as a sociologistp pstrongtufekci strongunderratedp pstrongcowen strongwhyp pstrongtufekci strongpart of the reason hes underrated is because he writes in that very hardtoread early 19thcentury writing but if you read max weber 90 percent of what you want to understand about the current public health crisis is there in his sociology not just him but sociology organizations and how that works hes good at that i would say underrated partly because its very hard to read its like shakespeare you need the modern english version conceptually for more people to read itp pi would say almost all of sociology is underrated in how dramatically useful it is just ask me any time early on i knew we were going to have a pandemic completely based on sociology of the moment in early january before i knew anything about the virus because they werent telling us but you could just use sociological concepts to put things together max weber is great at most of them and underratedp pstrongcowen stronga relnoopener hrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtml target_blank datahrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtmlkemal mustafaa  overrated or underratedp pstrongtufekci strongunderratedp pstrongcowen strongwhyp pstrongtufekci strongwhy my grandmother  she was 12 or 13 when she was in the mediterranean region  central asia but mediterranean region very close to the mediterranean she was born the year the turkish republic had been founded 1923 and she was 13 or so she was just about to be married off but the republic was a little over a decade  same age as her they created a national exam to pick talented girls like her the ones that won the exam got taken to istanbul to this elite one of the very few boarding high schools for girlsp pthe underrated part isnt just that such a mechanism existed the underrated part is that the country changed so much in 13 years that her teacher was able to prevail upon the family to let her go to have a 13yearold be sent off to istanbul completely opposite side of the country to a boarding school for education  that kind of flourishing of liberationp pim not going to deny it was an authoritarian period and minorities like kurds during that period were brutally suppressed i cant make it sound like there was nothing else going on but in terms of creating a republic out of the ashes of a crumbling empire  i think its one of the very striking stories of national transformation globally within one generation so underratedp blockquote pthere are numerous interesting segments on varied topics to be found throughout the dialogp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myconversationwithzeyneptufekcihtmlmy conversation with zeynep tufekcia appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

phere relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeszeyneptufekci target_blankthe audio video transcripta summaryp blockquotepzeynep joined tyler discuss problems media scientific establishment lableak hypothesis unacceptable talk background sociology key getting things right pandemic pitfalls academic contrarianism max weber understood public health crises underrated aspects kemel mustaphas regime howemgame throneseminterested sociologist final season americans wrong turkey internetfueled movements like gezi protests fizzle islamic fundamentalism rise turkey shed try persuade covid19 vaccine skeptic public health authorities lie greater good thinks america actually racist europe background programmer affects work sociologist subject book morepblockquote phere excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstronga relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500max weberaoverrated underrated sociologistp pstrongtufekcistrongunderratedp pstrongcowenstrongwhyp pstrongtufekcistrongpart reason hes underrated writes hardtoread early 19thcentury writing read max weber 90 percent want understand current public health crisis sociology sociology organizations works hes good underrated partly hard read like shakespeare need modern english version conceptually people read itp pi sociology underrated dramatically useful ask time early knew going pandemic completely based sociology moment early january knew virus werent telling use sociological concepts things max weber great underratedp pstrongcowenstronga relnoopener hrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtml target_blank datahrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtmlkemal mustafaaoverrated underratedp pstrongtufekcistrongunderratedp pstrongcowenstrongwhyp pstrongtufekcistrongwhy grandmothershe 12 13 mediterranean regioncentral asia mediterranean region close mediterranean born year turkish republic founded 1923 13 married republic little decadesame age created national exam pick talented girls like ones won exam got taken istanbul elite boarding high schools girlsp pthe underrated isnt mechanism existed underrated country changed 13 years teacher able prevail family let 13yearold sent istanbul completely opposite country boarding school educationthat kind flourishing liberationp pim going deny authoritarian period minorities like kurds period brutally suppressed cant sound like going terms creating republic ashes crumbling empirei think striking stories national transformation globally generation underratedp blockquote pthere numerous interesting segments varied topics found dialogp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myconversationwithzeyneptufekcihtmlmy conversation zeynep tufekcia appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

6126c8f0fcfe0170ea6bf5e8

Why Doesn’t the United States Have Test Abundance?!

pwe have vaccine abundance in the united states but not test abundance germany has test abundance tests are easily available at the supermarket or the corner store and they are cheap a hrefhttpstwittercomoverseasdemstatus1429326478903291914five tests for 375 euroa or less than a dollar each billiger in great britain you a hrefhttpswwwgovukordercoronavirusrapidlateralflowtestscan get a 14 pack for freea a hrefhttpshealthcanadacaenrapidteststhe canadiansa are also a hrefhttpswwwnewswirecanewsreleasesgovernmentofcanadamakesrapidantigentestsavailabletomoresmallandmediumsizedorganizationsthroughnewpharmacypartners800078761htmldistributing packs of testsa to small businesses for free to test their employeesp pin the united states the fda has approved less than a handful of true athome tests and partially as a result they are expensive at 10 to 20 per test ie more than ten times as expensive as in germany germany has approved a hrefhttpsantigentestbfarmdeordsfp1101004793921863454over 50 of these testsa including tests from american firms not approved in the united states the rapid tests are excellent for a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202008infectedversusinfectioushtmlidentifying infectiousnessa and they are an important weapon alongside vaccines for controlling viral spread and making gatherings safe but you cant expect people to use them more than a handful of times at 10 per usep pwe ought to have testing abundance in the us and not lag behind germany the uk and canada as usual i say if its good enough for the germans a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomsreciprocitypharmaceuticalits good enough for meap pstrongaddendumstrong the excellent michael mina continues to a hrefhttpstwittercommichaelmina_labstatus1428178138807287811s20bang the drumap pimg draggabletrue srchttpspbstwimgcommediae9x82kgxeamjxbfformatjpgnamelarge altimage width724 height965p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108testingabundancehtmlwhy doesnt the united states have test abundancea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pwe vaccine abundance united states test abundance germany test abundance tests easily available supermarket corner store cheap hrefhttpstwittercomoverseasdemstatus1429326478903291914five tests 375 euroa dollar billiger great britain hrefhttpswwwgovukordercoronavirusrapidlateralflowtestscan 14 pack freea hrefhttpshealthcanadacaenrapidteststhe canadiansa hrefhttpswwwnewswirecanewsreleasesgovernmentofcanadamakesrapidantigentestsavailabletomoresmallandmediumsizedorganizationsthroughnewpharmacypartners800078761htmldistributing packs testsa small businesses free test employeesp pin united states fda approved handful true athome tests partially result expensive 10 20 test ie times expensive germany germany approved hrefhttpsantigentestbfarmdeordsfp1101004793921863454over 50 testsa including tests american firms approved united states rapid tests excellent hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202008infectedversusinfectioushtmlidentifying infectiousnessa important weapon alongside vaccines controlling viral spread making gatherings safe cant expect people use handful times 10 usep pwe ought testing abundance lag germany uk canada usual good germans hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomsreciprocitypharmaceuticalits good meap pstrongaddendumstrong excellent michael mina continues hrefhttpstwittercommichaelmina_labstatus1428178138807287811s20bang drumap pimg draggabletrue srchttpspbstwimgcommediae9x82kgxeamjxbfformatjpgnamelarge altimage width724 height965p pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108testingabundancehtmlwhy doesnt united states test abundancea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Is the scolding equilibrium shifting, and if so why?

pas the pandemic evolves so is the tendency of people to take moral positions they would not normally endorse most notably many leftwing commentators are becoming moral scolds stressing ideals of individual responsibilityp pconsider these wordsp pso its time to stop being diffident and call out destructive behavior for what it is doing so may make some people feel that theyre being looked down on but you know what your feelings dont give you the right to ruin other peoples livesp pif i had read that paragraph two years ago i might have thought it was a conservative columnist lamenting innercity crime or perhaps complaining about the behavior of homeless people in san francisco but no it is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210819opinioncovidmasksvaccinemandateshtml target_blankpaul krugman discussinga those who will not get vaccinated or wear masks he calls it the rage of the responsible and it is emblematic of a broader set of current leftwing attitudes most of all toward the red state responses to the pandemicp pto be clear i agree with krugmans point and i frequently express similar sentiments all the same i wonder about the rules here when exactly are the responsible allowed to express their quiet rage on which issues and on which termsp pthe alternative to this rage is the language of victimhood for example many on the left tend to portray the homeless as hostages to circumstances largely beyond their control the high cost of housing unjust eviction policies a tattered social welfare state perhaps mental illness or drug addictionp pthere is some truth in all those hypotheses still when it comes to the homeless am i also allowed to express the quiet rage of the responsible or is only the rhetoric of victimhood allowedp pthere is no doubt that homeless people suffer very real injustices but it could be argued that allowing oneself to become homeless is a greater abdication of responsibility than refusing to be vaccinated it is also worse for your health and bad for the community as anyone from san francisco can tell youp pone rejoinder might be that a pandemic is different maybe so but if this were the 1980s during the peak of the hivaids epidemic one could imagine a moral majority advocate expressing sentiments similar to krugmans about gay men who engage in unsafe sex today such a view would be considered uncouth at least in the mainstream media and thats not only because there are now effective treatments against hivaids this kind of scolding has mostly gone out of fashion especially when the recipients have been victims of prior or current social discriminationp por consider the question of suicide there was a time in america when it was common to view suicide as a violation of christian doctrine now there is largely sympathy for those who have killed themselves is this change for the better maybe but its not clear that this issue has been given serious evidencebased consideration scolding sometimes helps to limit the number of wrong deeds and everyone does it to some degree even when it is sometimes not appropriatep pthen there are alcohol and drug abuse which have some features of epidemics in that they exhibit social contagion your drunkenness for example on average encourages some of your friends to experiment with the same but scolding alcoholics also is out of fashion even though the social costs of alcohol abuse are extremely high especially when considered cumulatively as a teetotaler i sometimes express my own quiet rage of the responsible and my reaction is mostly considered a strange curiosityp pit is not only leftwing thinkers who have ended up in strange ideological positions governor ron desantis of florida a conservative republican and one of americas leading rightwing politicians has essentially expanded public healthcare coverage in his state by setting up mobile units to administer monoclonal antibodies to covid19 sufferers im all for that at the same time i notice he continues to oppose medicaid expansion in floridap pwhat explains the attitudinal shifts we are seeing one possibility is that leftwing thinkers are getting more puritanical and are more comfortable in their new role as scolds including with respect to sex and vaccination and maskwearing that would leave trumpist republicans as the defenders of medical choice and the sexual libertinism of the 1960s and 1970sp panother possibility not mutually exclusive is that few of us are intellectually consistent and so our scolding is increasingly shaped by affective political polarization the left will scold the practices of trump supporters while the right will scold the woke and views on any particular issue will be adjusted to fit into this broader pattern if an issue is not very partisan such as alcohol abuse or suicide scolding simply will declinep phere is an article on a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwiredcomstorywoulditbefairtotreatvaccinatedcovidpatientsfirst target_blankthe movement to treat vaccinated patients firsta fine by me but what exactly are the egalitarians supposed to say is meritocracy now allowed to rear its ugly head  or do no other social outcomes have anything to do with your merit only this one reallyp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108scoldhtmlis the scolding equilibrium shifting and if so whya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pas pandemic evolves tendency people moral positions normally endorse notably leftwing commentators moral scolds stressing ideals individual responsibilityp pconsider wordsp pso time stop diffident destructive behavior people feel theyre looked know feelings dont right ruin peoples livesp pif read paragraph years ago thought conservative columnist lamenting innercity crime complaining behavior homeless people san francisco relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210819opinioncovidmasksvaccinemandateshtml target_blankpaul krugman discussinga vaccinated wear masks calls rage responsible emblematic broader set current leftwing attitudes red state responses pandemicp pto clear agree krugmans point frequently express similar sentiments wonder rules exactly responsible allowed express quiet rage issues termsp pthe alternative rage language victimhood example left tend portray homeless hostages circumstances largely control high cost housing unjust eviction policies tattered social welfare state mental illness drug addictionp pthere truth hypotheses comes homeless allowed express quiet rage responsible rhetoric victimhood allowedp pthere doubt homeless people suffer real injustices argued allowing oneself homeless greater abdication responsibility refusing vaccinated worse health bad community san francisco tell youp pone rejoinder pandemic different maybe 1980s peak hivaids epidemic imagine moral majority advocate expressing sentiments similar krugmans gay men engage unsafe sex today view considered uncouth mainstream media thats effective treatments hivaids kind scolding gone fashion especially recipients victims prior current social discriminationp por consider question suicide time america common view suicide violation christian doctrine largely sympathy killed change better maybe clear issue given evidencebased consideration scolding helps limit number wrong deeds degree appropriatep pthen alcohol drug abuse features epidemics exhibit social contagion drunkenness example average encourages friends experiment scolding alcoholics fashion social costs alcohol abuse extremely high especially considered cumulatively teetotaler express quiet rage responsible reaction considered strange curiosityp pit leftwing thinkers ended strange ideological positions governor ron desantis florida conservative republican americas leading rightwing politicians essentially expanded public healthcare coverage state setting mobile units administer monoclonal antibodies covid19 sufferers im time notice continues oppose medicaid expansion floridap pwhat explains attitudinal shifts seeing possibility leftwing thinkers getting puritanical comfortable new role scolds including respect sex vaccination maskwearing leave trumpist republicans defenders medical choice sexual libertinism 1960s 1970sp panother possibility mutually exclusive intellectually consistent scolding increasingly shaped affective political polarization left scold practices trump supporters right scold woke views particular issue adjusted fit broader pattern issue partisan alcohol abuse suicide scolding simply declinep phere article relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwiredcomstorywoulditbefairtotreatvaccinatedcovidpatientsfirst target_blankthe movement treat vaccinated patients firsta fine exactly egalitarians supposed meritocracy allowed rear ugly head social outcomes merit reallyp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108scoldhtmlis scolding equilibrium shifting whya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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My emails to Arnold Kling about the correct inflation model

pafter i cited low tenyear securities yields arnold asked for my basic model of inflation here was my first emailp ul liprice level dynamics and money supply processes are murky at least in recent timesli lithe median voter hates inflationli lithe fed wont let inflation happenli ul pis my modelp pi would add a dose of inflationary pressures really do seem to be distributed pretty unevenlyp pend of email  here was my second email to arnoldp pi think the fed knows the true model in gross termsbr i also think there is a good chance the fed will create a recession in limiting inflationp pbut look at japan the eu even italy its not just the usp ptemporary inflation pressures all over the place due to covid and postcovid adjustments no fiscal financial crises no longterm inflationary expectations of much note not in the developed nationsp pthe stock of saved wealth is now quite high relative to debt and deficits especially if you count human capitalp pso both the basic model and the markets predict no catastrophe and also no runaway inflation and central banks know how to boost the demand for money when neededp pseigniorage returns from inflation are especially low in the contemporary environment checking another motive for inflation no assignats revenue is in the works herep pi just dont see what weve got in the toolbox to override all of thatp pend of email  i should note that i agree with summers that inflation is higher than it needs to be that is bad and it is because we overshot on our combined monetaryfiscal responsep pill also repeat my standard challenge are you short the long bond  are you buying those puts  im not so convinced if all youve got is im not buying so many equities any morep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myemailstoarnoldklingaboutthecorrectinflationmodelhtmlmy emails to arnold kling about the correct inflation modela appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pafter cited low tenyear securities yields arnold asked basic model inflation emailp ul liprice level dynamics money supply processes murky recent timesli lithe median voter hates inflationli lithe fed wont let inflation happenli ul pis modelp pi add dose inflationary pressures distributed pretty unevenlyp pend email second email arnoldp pi think fed knows true model gross termsbr think good chance fed create recession limiting inflationp pbut look japan eu italy usp ptemporary inflation pressures place covid postcovid adjustments fiscal financial crises longterm inflationary expectations note developed nationsp pthe stock saved wealth high relative debt deficits especially count human capitalp pso basic model markets predict catastrophe runaway inflation central banks know boost demand money neededp pseigniorage returns inflation especially low contemporary environment checking motive inflation assignats revenue works herep pi dont weve got toolbox override thatp pend email note agree summers inflation higher needs bad overshot combined monetaryfiscal responsep pill repeat standard challenge short long bond buying puts im convinced youve got im buying equities morep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myemailstoarnoldklingaboutthecorrectinflationmodelhtmlmy emails arnold kling correct inflation modela appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Crypto-Volcano Sentence of the Day

blockquotepthe 40yearold president also wants to lure foreign investors to develop geothermal power from volcanoes to supply the large amounts of electricity needed for mining the cryptocurrencypblockquote pthis is from the wsjs article on a hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticleselsalvadorgetsreadyforariskybitcoinexperiment11629966845__el salvadors adoption of bitcoinap phat tip scott lincicomep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108cryptovolcanosentenceofthedayhtmlcryptovolcano sentence of the daya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepthe 40yearold president wants lure foreign investors develop geothermal power volcanoes supply large amounts electricity needed mining cryptocurrencypblockquote pthis wsjs article hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticleselsalvadorgetsreadyforariskybitcoinexperiment11629966845__el salvadors adoption bitcoinap phat tip scott lincicomep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108cryptovolcanosentenceofthedayhtmlcryptovolcano sentence daya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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*Smashing the Liquor Machine*

pthe subtitle is ema global history of prohibitionem and the author is mark lawrence schrad  i blurbed the book with thisp blockquotepthe best book on prohibition period it is a revelation on the causes and nature of the prohibition movement and takes a properly international perspective considering colonies and indigenous peoples as well you will never look at prohibition the same way againpblockquote phighly recommended you can buy it a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsmashingliquormachinehistoryprohibitiondp0190841575refsr_1_1dchild1keywordssmashingtheliquormachineqid1629914368sr81 target_blankhereap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108smashingtheliquormachinehtmlsmashing the liquor machinea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthe subtitle ema global history prohibitionem author mark lawrence schrad blurbed book thisp blockquotepthe best book prohibition period revelation causes nature prohibition movement takes properly international perspective considering colonies indigenous peoples look prohibition way againpblockquote phighly recommended buy relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsmashingliquormachinehistoryprohibitiondp0190841575refsr_1_1dchild1keywordssmashingtheliquormachineqid1629914368sr81 target_blankhereap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108smashingtheliquormachinehtmlsmashing liquor machinea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Does Jordan Peterson believe in God?

pjordan peterson is not known for being shy about his opinions yet a hrefhttpswwwthepublicdiscoursecom20180421281the most influential biblical interpreter in the world todaya is very coy about saying whether or not he believes in godp pi dont like the question peterson always replies when put on the spot acknowledging that he is obsessed with religious matters several millions of people can attest to that having watched his fascinating a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvui_qcd030xw target_blankthe psychological significance of the biblical storiesa youtube series which focuses on the book of genesis but when it comes to gods existence peterson doesnt want to declare his hand why i dont know exactly he replies a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomqandastatus1100000553432637440s20 target_blanki act as if god exists and i am terrified that he mighta some think peterson is being deliberately shiftyp pas a result of the professors engagement with religion a fulllength study on the question of him and god has been published emjordan peterson god and christianity the search for a meaningful life emin it christopher kaczor and matthew r petrusek a couple of american academics generously acknowledge all that he has done to draw out the psychological insights of biblical narratives while seeking to encourage him over the line into what they think of as fullblown belief both admire peterson but just cant quite get over the fact that he is unwilling publicly at least to make what they take to be the ultimate declaration of faith his faith they say is the sort of thing you might have in the parking lot outside the church as if he is nearly there but not quite you can sense their frustration throughout is acting as if god exists enough to be counted as a believing christian close they think but not close enoughp divdiv pin the end the difference between acting as if god exists which peterson says he does and believing in god and acting accordingly which peterson says he is not ready to do may seem inconsequential yet the difference between the two is as vast and relevant as the difference between reading a great love story and falling in love yourselfp pwhat is at stake here though is something more than wanting to sign peterson up as a proper member of team christianity what is at stake is deciphering what we mean by really believing and here even as a priest i am much more in the peterson camp unlike the authors of this book i am really not that bothered by petersons apparently indeterminate statusp pi remember a terrible moment on the first night at theological college in oxford i had unpacked my trunk ready for three years of training to be a priest i lay on the bed staring up at the ceiling and a terrible thought struck me did i really believe in all this stuff was i now writing the cheques of religious commitment that i didnt have the intellectual recourses to cash in other words was i a fraudp pafter a quarter of a century as a priest i still dont have a satisfactory answer to this question and after a great deal of soulsearching on the matter i have come to a similar conclusion to peterson theres something wrong with the questionp pmy conversion to christianity was both instantaneous and drawn out as an atheist philosophy student i discovered a surprising love of the biblical literature and of those existentialist philosophers who took it seriously writers such as dostoevsky and kierkegaard brought it to life for me  much as they did for peterson friends would describe christianity as my funny sort of hobby i thought of it as a kind of secular moral philosophy then all of a sudden i came to the realisation that i wasnt on the outside of this system of thought looking in i was on the inside looking out something huge had changed but i was unable to say precisely what it wasp pi think wittgenstein best describes the nature of my conversion in his emphilosophical investigationsem he has a little illustration below of what is known as a duckrabbitp pimg sizesmaxwidth 395px 100vw 395px srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png alt width395 srcsethttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png 300w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein768x674png 768w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein600x527png 600w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgensteinpng 800w classwpimage197819 height346p phe notes how it is possible to see these lines as the drawing of a rabbit but then suddenly you see them as the drawing of a duck what were ears become the ducks bill the image is not looking right but looking left everything about the image looks different and yet nothing has changed the lines havent movedp pmy conversion was remarkably similar nothing changed about the world i still thought it contained the same stuff but the way i looked at it had been turned on its head this was no longer a tree but an expression of gods creation the people in my life were no longer fleshy units of individual consciousness but made in the image and likeness of god nothing changed yet everything changed i suspect that being obsessed with religious matters makes this sort of change and you can build your life around it as i havep pbut hang on an observer might say surely the lines have changed after all you now believe in god so there must be an emadditionalem element to the picture but it doesnt work like that thomas aquinas observed that if you decided to embark upon a crazy impossible project of listing all the things that existed in the world shoes cars clouds stars atoms etc then god wouldnt be on the list because god is not a created object he is the creator itself which is remarkably close to saying that god does not exist however emexistenceem is not the right sort of thing to say about god to talk of his existence is to relegate god to just one more thing about the universe big and powerful admittedly but fundamentally ontologically just one more thing among others and what the great doctors of the church repeatedly say about god is that he just isnt like thatp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202010screenshot20201023at0945271300x157pngadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarh5the world needs jordan peterson more than everh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarspanbyspan douglas murrayapdivadiv pthe authors of this new book contrast petersons acting as if god exists faith with that of cs lewis for them a representative of the really believing kind of christian for them petersons faith is kind of second bestp pwhat they dont mention however is the fascinating exchange when the marshwiggle puddleglum is captured by a witch in cs lewiss emthe silver chair emand taken to her underground lair seeking to disabuse puddleglum of the idea that he might survive imprisonment she attempts to convince him that narnia and aslan do not exist it is lewiss take on platos parable of the cavep ppuddleglum doesnt have half the intellectual resources of the nihilistic witch but he makes a spirited defence that has her infuriated yes he might be a dreamer yet his made up world feels a lot more important that her real worldp psuppose we have only dreamed or made up all of those things then all i can say is that in that case the madeup things seem a great deal more important than the real onesi am going to stand by the play world im on aslans side even if there isnt any aslan to lead it i am going to live as like a narnian as i can even if there isnt any narniap pthis might sound like puddleglum doesnt emproperlyem believe something along the lines of i will believe in god even if there isnt any god but in fact as rowan williams put it puddleglum isnt saying it doesnt matter whether its true or not hes saying i have no means of knowing whether this is or isnt truebut i know theres something here that i cannot let go of without letting go of myselfp pto be fair its not as if the authors of the peterson book think there is no value in this position indeed they include a nifty quote from fr richard john neuhaus that makes another kind of defence of us puddleglums if you would believe he said act as though you believe leaving it to god to know whether you believe for such leaving it to god is faith but whereas they think this is not quite up to scratch i take it that this position is as authentic an expression of faith as one could hope to findp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads201805peterson300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanfurther readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarh5what peterson shares with pelagiush5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanbyspan giles fraserapdivadiv pthats why i think petersons faith is not in any way lacking some extra element that turns it into the real thing aquinas described the authentic religious inquiry as emfides quaerens intellectumem faith seeking understanding in other words it is not understanding that comes first you dont need to have a fully worked out philosophy of god before you can profess any sort of faith the understanding bit is always a work in progressp pi am perfectly happy to say that i believe in god not because i totally know what that means as a kind of intellectual assent still less proof to some proposition about the world but rather because i say it as a kind of existential commitment this is where i stand this is how i see the worldp pit seems to me perfectly obvious that peterson is doing something very similar when jesus called the fishermen by the sea of galilee he said come follow me he didnt offer proofs or even any sort of argument he didnt supply any sort of checklist of their metaphysical commitments he just asked them to follow in a more metaphysically sceptical world they might well have explained their actions thus i act as if god exists and i am terrified that he mightp pthis isnt being shifty this is precisely what faith looks likep a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108doesjordanpetersonbelieveingodappcommentsview 27 commentsa

pjordan peterson known shy opinions hrefhttpswwwthepublicdiscoursecom20180421281the influential biblical interpreter world todaya coy saying believes godp pi dont like question peterson replies spot acknowledging obsessedwith religious matters millions people attest having watched fascinating relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvui_qcd030xw target_blankthe psychological significance biblical storiesa youtube series focuses book genesis comes gods existence peterson doesnt want declare hand dont know exactly replies relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomqandastatus1100000553432637440s20 target_blanki act god exists terrified mighta think peterson deliberately shiftyp pas result professors engagement religion fulllength study question god published emjordan peterson god christianity search meaningful life emin christopher kaczor matthew r petrusek couple american academics generously acknowledge draw psychological insights biblical narratives seeking encourage line think fullblown belief admire peterson cant fact unwilling publicly ultimate declaration faith faith sort thing parking lot outside church nearly sense frustration acting god exists counted believing christian close think close enoughp divdiv pin end difference acting god exists peterson says believing god acting accordingly peterson says ready inconsequential difference vast relevant difference reading great love story falling love yourselfp pwhat stake wanting sign peterson proper member team christianity stake deciphering mean believingand priest peterson campunlike authors book bothered petersons apparently indeterminate statusp pi remember terrible moment night theological college oxford unpacked trunk ready years training priest lay bed staring ceiling terrible thought struck believe stuff writing cheques religious commitment didnt intellectual recourses cash words fraudp pafter quarter century priest dont satisfactory answer question great deal soulsearching matter come similar conclusion peterson theres wrong questionp pmy conversion christianity instantaneous drawn atheist philosophy student discovered surprising love biblical literature existentialist philosophers took seriously writers dostoevskyand kierkegaard brought life peterson friends describe christianity funny sort hobby thought kind secular moral philosophy sudden came realisation wasnt outside system thought looking inside looking huge changed unable precisely wasp pi think wittgenstein best describes nature conversion hisemphilosophical investigationsemhe little illustration known duckrabbitp pimg sizesmaxwidth 395px 100vw 395px srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png alt width395 srcsethttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png 300w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein768x674png 768w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein600x527png 600w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgensteinpng 800w classwpimage197819 height346p phe notes possible lines drawing rabbit suddenly drawing duck ears ducks bill image looking right looking left image looks different changed lines havent movedp pmy conversion remarkably similar changed world thought contained stuff way looked turned head longer tree expression gods creation people life longer fleshy units individual consciousness image likeness god changed changed suspect obsessed religious matters makes sort change build life havep pbut hang observer surely lines changed believe god anemadditionalemelement picture doesnt work like thomas aquinas observed decided embark crazy impossible project listing things existed world shoes cars clouds stars atoms etc god wouldnt list god created object creator remarkably close saying god exist howeveremexistenceemis right sort thing god talk existence relegate god thing universe big powerful admittedly fundamentally ontologically thing great doctors church repeatedly god isnt like thatp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202010screenshot20201023at0945271300x157pngadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarh5the world needs jordan peterson everh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010theworldneedsjordanpetersonmorethaneverrefinnarspanbyspan douglas murrayapdivadiv pthe authors new book contrast petersons acting god exists faith cs lewis representative believing kind christian petersons faith kind second bestp pwhat dont mention fascinating exchange marshwiggle puddleglum captured witch cs lewissemthe silver chairemand taken underground lair seeking disabuse puddleglum idea survive imprisonment attempts convince narnia aslan exist lewiss platos parable cavep ppuddleglum doesnt half intellectual resources nihilistic witch makes spirited defence infuriated yes dreamer world feels lot important real worldp psuppose dreamed things case madeup things great deal important real onesi going stand play world im aslans isnt aslan lead going live like narnian isnt narniap pthis sound like puddleglum doesnt emproperlyem believe lines believe god isnt god fact rowan williams puddleglum isnt saying doesnt matter true hes saying means knowing isnt truebut know theres let letting myselfp pto fair authors peterson book think value position include nifty quote fr richard john neuhaus makes kind defence puddleglums believe said act believe leaving god know believe leaving god faith think scratch position authentic expression faith hope findp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads201805peterson300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanfurther readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarh5what peterson shares pelagiush5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanbyspan giles fraserapdivadiv pthats think petersons faith way lacking extra element turns real thing aquinas described authentic religious inquiry asemfides quaerens intellectumem faith seeking understanding words understanding comes dont need fully worked philosophy god profess sort faith understanding bit work progressp pi perfectly happy believe god totally know means kind intellectual assent proof proposition world kind existential commitment stand worldp pit perfectly obvious peterson similar jesus called fishermen sea galilee said come follow didnt offer proofs sort argument didnt supply sort checklist metaphysical commitments asked follow metaphysically sceptical world explained actions act god exists terrified mightp pthis isnt shifty precisely faith looks likep hrefhttpsunherdcom202108doesjordanpetersonbelieveingodappcommentsview 27 commentsa

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Never trust a scientist

pin 2002 a harvard professor named marc hauser made an exciting discovery about monkeys cottontop tamarins to be specific the monkeys just like human infants were able to generalise rules that theyd learned across different patterns this was a big deal if monkeys had this capacity it would provide key insights into how human language evolvedp pexcept it was all fake in the experiment which relied on the monkeys looking in particular directions when shown certain patterns hauser had simply pretended that they were looking in the direction relevant to his languageevolution theory they hadnt been when a research assistant questioned how hauser himself kept finding the results he wanted when nobody else who looked at the data could he turned into a browbeating bully i am getting a bit pissed here he a hrefhttpswwwchroniclecomarticledocumentshedslightoninvestigationatharvardwrotea in an email there were no inconsistenciesp divdiv pit is just a tiny bit ironic then that hauser had also written a book about morality a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikimoral_minds target_blankemmoral mindsem emthe nature of right and wrongema came out in 15 years ago and described hausers theory that we have an inbuilt evolved morality module in our brains perhaps his had gone somewhat awry not only did he fake the data in that monkeylearning paper but there were also allegations that hed lifted many of his books ideas most notably the idea that morality has a universal grammar like language from another academic john mikhail a relnoopener hrefhttpwwwprincetoneduharmanmikhail20and20hauserpdf target_blankwithout crediting hima at allp pyou might have expected better from an ivy league university professor but the hauser case was a classic reminder of how even the most highpowered intellectuals from the most august institutions should never be given our implicit trustp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202010gettyimages1227715546300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarh5how the experts messed up on covidh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspanbyspan stuart ritchie and michael storyapdivadiv psadly we now have yet another story that underlines this lesson something similar might have happened again another ivy league psychology professor another popscience book another set of results that arent real and were never real to begin with another set of credible though i hasten to add at this time unproven allegations of scientific fraud and another irony because the potentially dishonest results were in a study about honestyp pduke universitys dan ariely has written several books that made a big splash in the world of popular psychology and behavioural economics his combination of humour and what appears to be deep psychological insight made them fly off the shelves in 2008 a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikipredictably_irrational target_blankempredictably irrationalema provided an apparently a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20080316booksreviewberrebythtml target_blankrevolutionarya argument for why economists were wrong to assume rationality on the part of the average consumer in 2012 a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikithe_honest_truth_about_dishonesty target_blankemthe honest truth about dishonestyema used some of arielys own research to explain what makes people break the rules arielys slick charismatic ted talks have racked up millions of views one of them titled a hrefhttpswwwtedcomtalksdan_ariely_our_buggy_moral_codeour buggy moral codea explains why we think its okay to cheat or stealp punfortunately it seems someone involved with arielys research thought it was okay to cheat last week an a relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorg98 target_blankindepth statistical analysisa showed that a dataset from one of his 2012 papers was essentially beyond doubt fraudulent the study had apparently showed that people were more honest about how much mileage their car had done if you made them sign a i promise this information is true statement embeforeem they reported the mileage rather than at the bottom of the page but it hadnt shown that in fact it seems no such study ever happened and the data was just produced using a random number generatorp pariely responded to the claims he said that hed had a car insurance company collect the data so someone emthereem must have faked it impressively the faker made the results of the study line up perfectly with arielys theory in other words his crime was one of sloppiness rather than fraud since he didnt doublecheck the data he wont say which insurance company it was his responses were a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbuzzfeednewscomarticlestephaniemleedanarielyhonestystudyretraction target_blankdescribeda by embuzzfeed newsems investigative journalist stephanie lee as vague and conflicting nor will duke university reveal any of the details of the investigation they claim to have made into the matter the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpnasorgcontent1093815197 target_blankstudya with the allegedly fraudulent data which has been cited over 400 times by other scientists is to be retractedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202104gettyimages3248886e1618856233966300x167jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarh5the empty promise of pop psychologyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspanbyspan sarah ditumapdivadiv plike hausers paper on monkeys which has been cited more than 175 times that apparently faked paper on honesty has already done damage to the scientific literature each of those 400 citations used it to a greater or lesser extent to buttress some scientific argument they were making in every case they seem to have been misled this is part of the tragedy of fraud in a cumulative endeavour like science the least ariely could do now is provide every possible detail of the provenance of the fake dataset so the scientific community can get to the bottom of itp pbut in the case of ariely reticence is something of a pattern in 2010 he told an interviewer a fact about the extent to which dentists agree on whether a tooth has a cavity he said it was only 50 of the time his apparent source delta dental insuranceuu denied this ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwburorgnpr131079116shouldyoubesuspiciousofyourdentistornprssource target_blankclaimeda someone at delta dental had given him the information but he wouldnt reveal anything about them other than the fact theyd definitely not want to talk to anyone else about itp pand just a few months ago another of his papers from 2004 was given a special editorial expression of concern because of over a dozen statistical impossibilities in the reported numbers these couldnt be checked ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoi10117709567976211035782 target_blanksaida because hed lost the original data filep pmaybe its worth looking at arielys own theory about cheating and dishonesty in his ted talk he described an a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoifull101111j14679280200902306x target_blankexperimenta of his in which the participants had been more likely to cheat on a dollarpercorrectanswer maths test if they only had to selfreport their number of correct answers having shredded the answer sheet that is when nobody could check the details dishonesty kicked in someone should probably check the data in that study is legitimate thoughp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105gettyimages1211656392594x5941300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarh5how science has been corruptedh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspanbyspan matthew crawfordapdivadiv pscience is supposed to be all about emnullius in verbaem take nobodys word for it everything down to the tiniest detail is supposed to be readily verifiable even if a scientist has done everything completely above board they shouldnt have to rely on the dog ate my homework or i do have a girlfriend but she goes to a different school so you wouldnt know her excuses the whole idea of having a scientific record is to well emrecordem things a literature thats full not just of fraud but also unverifiable claims is a strange contradiction in termsp peven if this is the end of the ariely affair and no other issues with his research are found its still a perfect illustration of so many of the problems with our scientific system a patchy literature of unclear veracity researchers losing track of their data allowing error and sometimes fraud to slip in scientists building lucrative careers on a foundation of dodgy research while the people that clean up their mess the fraudbusters and data sleuths go largely unsung bestselling popular books spreading untrue and unverifiable claims to thousands of readersp pyou need only look at previous massivelysuccessful books on the topics of a relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcom202105youremorebiasedthanyouthink target_blankhuman biasesa and the a relnoopener hrefhttpsguzeycombookswhywesleep target_blankimportance of sleepa to see how lowquality research and sloppy scientific arguments can reach enormous audiences at best the implications of this are that dinnerparty conversations will contain even fewer solid facts than usual at worst patients or their doctors will make decisions about their health on the basis of some unproven vaguelyreported fact they read in some famous professors popular bookp pits easy to get distracted by the tangles of irony of these cases the immoral morality expert the dishonesty expert who at best got duped by dishonesty as amusing as the stories are they also have rather grim consequences no matter the subject area and no matter how impressive the credentials our trust in the experts keeps being betrayedp pand in some sense this is a good thing scandals like this remind us to take nothing at face value emnullius in verbaem after all in response to the new fraud revelations ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorgstorage_strongdanblogcomment_aug_16_2021_finalpdf target_blankwrotea that he did not test the data for irregularities which after this painful lesson i will start doing regularly whether or not you trust arielys research or his books any more its good advicep a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108nevertrustascientistappcommentsview 13 commentsa

pin 2002 harvard professor named marc hauser exciting discovery monkeys cottontop tamarins specific monkeys like human infants able generalise rules theyd learned different patterns big deal monkeys capacity provide key insights human language evolvedp pexcept fake experiment relied monkeys looking particular directions shown certain patterns hauser simply pretended looking direction relevant languageevolution theory hadnt research assistant questioned hauser kept finding results wanted looked data turned browbeating bully getting bit pissed hrefhttpswwwchroniclecomarticledocumentshedslightoninvestigationatharvardwrotea email inconsistenciesp divdiv pit tiny bit ironic hauser written book morality relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikimoral_minds target_blankemmoral mindsem emthe nature right wrongema came 15 years ago described hausers theory inbuilt evolved morality module brains gone somewhat awry fake data monkeylearning paper allegations hed lifted books ideas notably idea morality universal grammar like language academic john mikhail relnoopener hrefhttpwwwprincetoneduharmanmikhail20and20hauserpdf target_blankwithout crediting hima allp pyou expected better ivy league university professor hauser case classic reminder highpowered intellectuals august institutions given implicit trustp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202010gettyimages1227715546300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarh5how experts messed covidh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspanbyspan stuart ritchie michael storyapdivadiv psadly story underlines lesson similar happened ivy league psychology professor popscience book set results arent real real begin set credible hasten add time unproven allegations scientific fraud irony potentially dishonest results study honestyp pduke universitys dan ariely written books big splash world popular psychology behavioural economics combination humour appears deep psychological insight fly shelves 2008 relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikipredictably_irrational target_blankempredictably irrationalema provided apparently relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20080316booksreviewberrebythtml target_blankrevolutionarya argument economists wrong assume rationality average consumer 2012 relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikithe_honest_truth_about_dishonesty target_blankemthe honest truth dishonestyema arielys research explain makes people break rules arielys slick charismatic ted talks racked millions views titled hrefhttpswwwtedcomtalksdan_ariely_our_buggy_moral_codeour buggy moral codea explains think okay cheat stealp punfortunately involved arielys research thought okay cheat week relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorg98 target_blankindepth statistical analysisa showed dataset 2012 papers essentially doubt fraudulent study apparently showed people honest mileage car sign promise information true statement embeforeem reported mileage page hadnt shown fact study happened data produced random number generatorp pariely responded claims said hed car insurance company collect data emthereem faked impressively faker results study line perfectly arielys theory words crime sloppiness fraud didnt doublecheck data wont insurance company responses relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbuzzfeednewscomarticlestephaniemleedanarielyhonestystudyretraction target_blankdescribeda embuzzfeed newsems investigative journalist stephanie lee vague conflicting duke university reveal details investigation claim matter relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpnasorgcontent1093815197 target_blankstudya allegedly fraudulent data cited 400 times scientists retractedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202104gettyimages3248886e1618856233966300x167jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarh5the promise pop psychologyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspanbyspan sarah ditumapdivadiv plike hausers paper monkeys cited 175 times apparently faked paper honesty damage scientific literature 400 citations greater lesser extent buttress scientific argument making case misled tragedy fraud cumulative endeavour like science ariely provide possible detail provenance fake dataset scientific community itp pbut case ariely reticence pattern 2010 told interviewer fact extent dentists agree tooth cavity said 50 time apparent source delta dental insuranceuu denied ariely relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwburorgnpr131079116shouldyoubesuspiciousofyourdentistornprssource target_blankclaimeda delta dental given information wouldnt reveal fact theyd definitely want talk itp pand months ago papers 2004 given special editorial expression concern dozen statistical impossibilities reported numbers couldnt checked ariely relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoi10117709567976211035782 target_blanksaida hed lost original data filep pmaybe worth looking arielys theory cheating dishonesty ted talk described relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoifull101111j14679280200902306x target_blankexperimenta participants likely cheat dollarpercorrectanswer maths test selfreport number correct answers having shredded answer sheet check details dishonesty kicked probably check data study legitimate thoughp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105gettyimages1211656392594x5941300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarh5how science corruptedh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspanbyspan matthew crawfordapdivadiv pscience supposed emnullius verbaem nobodys word tiniest detail supposed readily verifiable scientist completely board shouldnt rely dog ate homework girlfriend goes different school wouldnt know excuses idea having scientific record emrecordem things literature thats fraud unverifiable claims strange contradiction termsp peven end ariely affair issues research found perfect illustration problems scientific system patchy literature unclear veracity researchers losing track data allowing error fraud slip scientists building lucrative careers foundation dodgy research people clean mess fraudbusters data sleuths largely unsung bestselling popular books spreading untrue unverifiable claims thousands readersp pyou need look previous massivelysuccessful books topics relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcom202105youremorebiasedthanyouthink target_blankhuman biasesa relnoopener hrefhttpsguzeycombookswhywesleep target_blankimportance sleepa lowquality research sloppy scientific arguments reach enormous audiences best implications dinnerparty conversations contain fewer solid facts usual worst patients doctors decisions health basis unproven vaguelyreported fact read famous professors popular bookp pits easy distracted tangles irony cases immoral morality expert dishonesty expert best got duped dishonesty amusing stories grim consequences matter subject area matter impressive credentials trust experts keeps betrayedp pand sense good thingscandals like remind face value emnullius verbaem response new fraud revelations ariely relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorgstorage_strongdanblogcomment_aug_16_2021_finalpdf target_blankwrotea test data irregularities painful lesson start regularly trust arielys research books good advicep hrefhttpsunherdcom202108nevertrustascientistappcommentsview 13 commentsa

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How is nursing evolving? (from my email)

pfrom andrew k stein strongmrstrong readerp blockquoteptheres a massive and massively underreported shift going on right now in hospital nurse staffing that is interesting from a health and labor economics povp pin normal times hospitals pride themselves on having little or no use of agency nurses ie not relying on nursing staffing companies to fill their bedside nursing slots but it seems now that most hospitals cant escape using agency eg travel nurses for a large plurality of their nursing staff in my day job i talk to hospital chief nursing officers somewhat regularlyp pagency nurses are very expensive high wages agency markup and also rather disruptive every new travel nurse needs to learn the local hospital care processes eg iv dressing changes what youre paying for as a cno is the convenience of an ontap nursing workforce precovid youd hear agency labor described as an addictive drug once you get hooked its hard to wean yourself offp pwhats happening in the labor market i think is that there are two paths for a bedside nurse in the covid era keep working for a hospital or go work for an agency agency pay has gotten ridiculously high so more and more nurses are quitting the local hospital signing on with the agency and then going to work for any hospital that can pay the agencys rates in exchange for going wherever the highest bidder is they get huge increases in their takehome pay no shame in thatp pthe net effect i suspect is that the bargaining power of nursing labor is going way up though with unequal gains to benefit you have to quit your hospitalemployed job and be willing to go wherever the agency sends youp pand then your open slot gets backfilled by another agency nurse from somewhere elsep pits a reinforcing cycle as nursing shortages rise nurses increasingly work short ie caring for more patients per shift than is reasonable or work more shifts per week than typical that daily stress spurs many nurses to either leave the bedside for something more 9to5 think outpatient clinics or jump into travel nursing to at least get paid for the extra load everyone is being forced to bear right nowp pagencies and travel nurses win hospitals and hospitalemployed nurses losep pyou could also tell the story that the labor supply of nursing has historically already been constrained though of course now more so and that nurses have historically been underpaid from a supplydemand perspective and that now its a more liquid market with agencies acting as market makers so the price for labor is risingp pid be interested if any mr readers have seen data on how big of an effect this is eg hospitals average of agency staffp pi suspect that high use of agency staffing is the new normal at least until the nursing labor supply grows to meet it emergency authorization of 100000 work visas for immigrant nurses or we invent robot nursespblockquote pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109howisnursingevolvingfrommyemailhtmlhow is nursing evolving from my emaila appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pfrom andrew k stein strongmrstrong readerp blockquoteptheres massive massively underreported shift going right hospital nurse staffing interesting health labor economics povp pin normal times hospitals pride having little use agency nurses ie relying nursing staffing companiesto fill bedside nursing slots thatmost hospitals cant escape agency eg travel nurses large plurality nursing staff day job talk hospital chief nursing officers somewhat regularlyp pagency nurses expensive high wages agency markup disruptive new travel nurse needs learn local hospital care processes eg iv dressing changes youre paying cno convenience ontap nursing workforce precovid youd hear agency labor described addictive drug hooked hard wean offp pwhats happening labor market think paths bedside nurse covid era working hospital work agency agency pay gotten ridiculouslyhigh nurses quitting local hospital signing agency going work hospital pay agencys rates exchange going highest bidder huge increases theirtakehome pay shame thatp pthe net effect suspect bargaining power nursing labor going way unequal gains benefit quit hospitalemployed job willing agency sends youp pand open slot gets backfilled agency nurse elsep pits reinforcing cycle nursing shortages rise nurses increasingly work short ie caring patients shift reasonable work shifts week typical daily stress spurs nurses leave bedside 9to5 think outpatient clinics jump travel nursing paid extra load forced bear right nowp pagencies travel nurses win hospitals hospitalemployed nurses losep pyou tell story labor supply nursing historically constrained course nurses historically underpaid supplydemand perspective liquid market agencies acting market makers price labor risingp pid interested mr readers seen data big effect eg hospitals average agency staffp pi suspect high use agency staffing new normal nursing labor supply grows meet emergency authorization 100000 work visas immigrant nurses invent robot nursespblockquote pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109howisnursingevolvingfrommyemailhtmlhow nursing evolving emaila appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

612fff6cb3d86823a84d7f62

*The Money Illusion*, the new Scott Sumner book

pthe subtitle is market monetarism the great recession and the future of monetary policy  i just got my copy selfrecommending of course  in fact hard to think of a better example of selfrecommending than this onep pyou can buy it a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommoneyillusionmonetarismrecessionmonetarydp022677368xrefsr_1_7dchild1keywordsscottsumnerqid1630456493sr87 target_blankhereap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108themoneyillusionthenewscottsumnerbookhtmlthe money illusion the new scott sumner booka appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthe subtitle market monetarism great recession future monetary policy got copy selfrecommending course fact hard think better example selfrecommending onep pyou buy relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommoneyillusionmonetarismrecessionmonetarydp022677368xrefsr_1_7dchild1keywordsscottsumnerqid1630456493sr87 target_blankhereap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108themoneyillusionthenewscottsumnerbookhtmlthe money illusion new scott sumner booka appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

6139496c7bc5f87cee812c7c

‘The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality‘—A Review

img altthe genetic lottery why dna matters for social equalitya review srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109geneticlottery1pngpis a leftwing author allowed to believe in genetics the question is only partially sarcastic doctrinaire progressives are inclined to cringe at least for public consumption at the idea that ones dna might drive real differences that shape our lives indeed the whole concept is seen as a means of justifying social inequality and perhaps even a step down the slippery slope to eugenicsppbut theres been pushback among some progressives recently based on the idea that anyone who cares about equity or social justice emshouldem care about genes after all the genes we get are purely a function of luckan unfair and unequal system of advantages and disadvantages whose effects can be addressed through public policy in this regard at least genes arent too different from other forms of privilege that progressives talk about all the timepplast year the socialist writer fredrik deboer floated this sort of argument in emthe cult of smartem a book that was long on provocative ideas but a hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcommagazine20201005geneticsaffectintelligenceconfrontingtheconsequencesfromtheleftlacking in scientifica explanation in ema hrefhttpsamznto3jsxc7vthe genetic lottery how dna matters for social equalityaem soon to be published by princeton university press behavioral geneticist kathryn paige harden expertly addresses that shortcomingpfigurea hrefhttpspressprincetonedubookshardcover9780691190808thegeneticlotteryimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109e7uxwpbweamk1gdjpg altthe genetic lottery why dna matters for social equalitya review width922 height894afigcaptionkathryn paige harden posing with her book in a recently posted socialmedia photofigcaptionfigureppart of hardens task is simply to distance genetic research from some of the policies and ideas with which its sometimes been historically associated she acknowledges and condemns the role that genetic science has played in eugenics for example and reiterates her skepticism prominently aired in a coauthored a hrefhttpswwwvoxcomthebigidea201751815655638charlesmurrayraceiqsamharrissciencefreespeech2017 emvoxem articlea of the idea that genetic differences are linked to a racial iq gap most importantly she expertly sets out the current state of genetic research and argues the philosophical case that what we know about the subject is consistent with an egalitarian worldview the book feels incomplete however when it comes to the question of how society should be restructured to address the inequities linked to the genetic lotterypcenter centerpthe scientific idea that ones genes affect ones life outcomes isnt novel during the early cold war period researchers already were conducting systematic behavioral genetics studies on different types of siblings twins in particular identical twins share twice as much genetic material as fraternal twins so if genes are important then other factors being equal the life outcomes of identicaltwin pairs should be more similar than those of fraternaltwin pairs when you read that a given trait is estimated to be x percent genetic with y percent attributed to shared environment and z percent to unshared environment someone is probably citing a twin studyppthis work generally has tended toward the conclusion that genes have a strong effect on most traits though rarely an effect that is allpowerful however there are some skeptics especially on the left who dismiss such findings claiming for instance that identical twins similarity in life outcomes might originate in their being treated alike precisely embecauseem they present to their parents and others as identical and not because they happen to have the same genes in the past decade or so however behavioral geneticists have moved beyond these traditional experimental designs and are now more focused on individuals actual dnappone new technique allows researchers to compare siblingsnot just twins but all full siblingsby reference to the random genetic draw each received from their parents by chance some sibling pairs are more genetically similar than others because their random dna draws happened to pick up more of the same parental source harden for example reports that she shares just 446 percent of her genes with her brother well below the expected average of about 50 percentppif sibling pairs that are more genetically similar also tend to have more similar life outcomes we can be confident that the relationship is one of causationnot mere correlationbecause the genetic similarities emerge from a random process its similar to any randomized scientific experiment only nature is doing the randomization for us in general this research shows us that the conclusions drawn by researchers in early twin studies were correct however the various methods do produce somewhat different estimates of the effect of geneswhich harden depicts in a useful chart summarizing research thats been conducted in the areas of education height age at first birth and bodymass index heritability estimates for educational attainment for instance range from roughly 20 to 40 percent depending on which research technique one applies but the bottom line is that genes really do matter greatly for a wide range of important outcomes one analytical method for instance suggests that genes associated with educational attainment predict ones adult income level about as well as does ones parents income level and someone with a high score on this genetic metric is several times as likely to graduate college as someone with a low scoreppbut at this point lets back up for a moment as some informed readers may already have noted the idea that a gene may cause this or that trait isnt as simple as my language might suggest as harden explains genes dont operate in a vacuum but instead express themselves within human societies characterized by their own unique biases technologies cultural practices economic structures and educational systems to the extent that genes can be said to cause anything they do so in a way thats influenced by environmental contextppas sociologist christopher jencks once a hrefhttpswwwgooglecomurlsatrctjqesrcssourcewebcdved2ahukewjvp5deuu3yahvbut8khakwa38qfnoecaiqaqurlhttp3a2f2fphilsciarchivepittedu2f10972f12fsesardicdocusgaovvaw2jsmxv7yko2mfs5su6ahclpointed outa in a society that refused to educate redheads a gene for redheadedness would be seen as a cause of illiteracy if you randomly assigned a child to possess that gene the child would grow up unable to read the resulting redheadbrunette gap would be nominally associated with a genetic marker but the gap would hardly be emintractableem because society could fix it by being more equitable to redheads the wide availability of eyeglasses a technology that addresses genetic disadvantages associated with bad eyesight is a nonhypothetical example that shows how the effects of a genetic difference can vary widely based on the societal or technological environment in which that difference is expressedppso in thinking through how genetic findings affect social policy we cant stop at the conclusion that genes cause some set percentage of outcomes we need to flesh out emhowem they cause those outcomes and ask if these processes could reasonably be changedppas harden notes the genes that affect educational attainment are expressed in the brain begin affecting development early in life and seem to affect both intelligence and noncognitive skills it immediately occurs to the reader that its hard to imagine a modern world in which intelligence and noncognitive skills dont affect how far one goes in schoolthough of course we can make life better for people who are born with bad genetic luck in this area including by improving their educationppjenckss cautionary theoretical tale about red hair is instructive too because there are plenty of ways in which our genes set in motion positive or negative environmental feedback loops harden reports for instance that children with genes associated with academic success also tend to get more intellectual stimulation from their parents our genes also contribute to a hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogthegeneticsofparentinghow were parented more generallya and a hrefhttpsscholarcoloradoeduconcernundergraduate_honors_theses6t053g52qhow attractive we area perceived to beppnonetheless its clear that comprehensively addressing the unfairness caused by genes couldnt be accomplished merely by making everyone less bigoted in fact as bigotries and other artificial limitations fall awayie as we come closer to achieving the equality of opportunity associated with a free and tolerant societygenes can actually have a emmore empronounced effect on outcomes because those with genetic gifts are held back less often harden discusses some fascinating studies in this regard in estonia for instance genes for educational attainment were shown to produce an increased advantage for those children who came of age after the soviet withdrawal in 1994 the same is true of recent cohorts of american women whove been less constrained by traditional gender roles than were their forebearsppand so to truly address the unfair social outcomes associated with genes wed need to go beyond the usual principles of freemarket liberalism and address the enormous economic dividends paid to those of us who possess highly remunerative skills that have genetic underpinnings and this brings us to some of the shortcomings of hardens bookpcenter centerpharden is correct that none of us did anything to earn our genes nor for that matter the homes into which we were born as she notes when you combine the shared environment factors with the estimated genetic effects in twin studies these unearned causes explain most of what there is to explainwith the leftover portion comprising a sort of free will residual which serves to illustrate why even identical twins growing up together will end up on at least somewhat different paths that residual figure tends to be around 20 percent or so for educational outcomes and about twice that for incomeppharden is also right that we can recognize the power of genes without invoking them to justify inequality as a natural phenomenon genes do emexplainem to some extent why some people are more economically productive and thus earn more than others given the demands of a modern economy but again genes are just luck and the structure of the economy is something we can changeppat the micro level harden has a lot of useful insights and suggestions for example she points out that our policies can either narrow or widen genetic inequalities some interventions seem to help people with a genetic predisposition toward obesity for example while cigarette taxes seem to help reduce smoking more among people who are emnot emespecially at risk genetically leaving those with the most intractable addictions to pay the price every time they feed their habit she also urges researchers not to ignore genetics when they study peoples traits and efforts to change them an argument that many emquilletteem readers have a hrefhttpsquillettecom20170803sociologysstagnationpartiigeneticconfoundingbeen familiar witha since 2017ppbut looking beyond such abstract considerations a reader is left grappling with the enormous challenge to traditional concepts of meritocracy and freemarket economics that hardens analysis implicitly presents in this area i found emthe genetic lottery ema bit thin perhaps because the authors expertise is rooted in genetics rather than say modes of economic redistribution she outlinesem emthe philosophical principles at play nicely with the requisite hattips to john rawlss a hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesoriginalpositionveiignveil of ignorancea but doesnt quite succeed in showing us how a geneticallyinformed rawlsian policymaking approach would work in practiceppharden writes that school curricula can be structured in a way thats equitypromoting or performancemaximizing but it isnt clear what the best tradeoff between these two goals is if you focus educational efforts on the lowestability students you might bring everyone up to an important baseline of mathematical and verbal skill but teaching to the highestability students might drive more achievement at the top of our economy with more inventions and medical breakthroughs that help everyone including people born in the future whatever their genes the tradeoff involves not only raw utilitarian costbenefit analysis but also the question of how much we subjectively value equity for its own sakeppthinking about this kind of tradeoff leads a reader to larger questions that extend well beyond the classroom capitalism pushes us to use our talents for the good of others if only to be compensated in return this keeps us busy working and produces a wellspring of goods services and discoveriesbut also allows some of us get far richer than others harden acknowledges this instrumental value of the market processes that create inequality on top of that of course many people americans in particular see economic freedom as good in itself and so modern welfare states seek to harness the productive efficiencies and freedoms associated with capitalism while also addressing poverty and low social mobility through taxes transfer payments regulations education incentives and so on which is why in almost all developed countries government spending tends to fall roughly between a hrefhttpsourworldindataorggraphercountrylevelgovernmentspendingvsincomeyscalelinearminpopulationfilter1000000040 and 60 percent of gdpa most forms of policy disagreement in these countries are rooted in one way or another in questions relating to how big this social safety net should be and how it should be structuredpiframe srchttpsourworldindataorggraphercountrylevelgovernmentspendingvsincomeyscalelinearminpopulationfilter10000000iframepharden clearly thinks the us safety net should be stronger than it is but her case for this barely rises beyond a sketch theres little engagement for example with longstanding and a hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcom201910incomeinequalityhassoaredwhiletaxeshavebecomedramaticallylessprogressiveornotcomplicateda a hrefhttpswwwrealclearpolicycomarticles20191112no_the_us_does_not_have_the_highest_child_poverty_rates_in_the_world_111303htmlacademica a hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcomcornertrumpvotersamericanworkingclassdiscontentdebatesa over the roots of american poverty and inequality including the question of whether generous social programs might a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgresearchproductsreporttheconservativecaseagainstchildallowancescreate perverse incentivesa and so while harden cites the power of genes and family background as evidence that our understanding of personal responsibility is overblown she doesnt really get into the weeds of what kind of policy change should follow from this insightppto be fair to harden she set out to write a book that required her to speak as a geneticistem ema philosopher and a policy wonk and she succeeded quite well on two of three counts at the very least she made a muchneeded case for the proposition that progressives cannot continue to ignore the reality of human geneticsppppp

img altthe genetic lottery dna matters social equalitya review srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109geneticlottery1pngpis leftwing author allowed believe genetics question partially sarcastic doctrinaire progressives inclined cringe public consumption idea ones dna drive real differences shape lives concept seen means justifying social inequality step slippery slope eugenicsppbut theres pushback progressives recently based idea cares equity social justice emshouldem care genes genes purely function luckan unfair unequal system advantages disadvantages effects addressed public policy regard genes arent different forms privilege progressives talk timepplast year socialist writer fredrik deboer floated sort argument emthe cult smartem book long provocative ideas hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcommagazine20201005geneticsaffectintelligenceconfrontingtheconsequencesfromtheleftlacking scientifica explanation ema hrefhttpsamznto3jsxc7vthe genetic lottery dna matters social equalityaem soon published princeton university press behavioral geneticist kathryn paige harden expertly addresses shortcomingpfigurea hrefhttpspressprincetonedubookshardcover9780691190808thegeneticlotteryimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109e7uxwpbweamk1gdjpg altthe genetic lottery dna matters social equalitya review width922 height894afigcaptionkathryn paige harden posing book recently posted socialmedia photofigcaptionfigureppart hardens task simply distance genetic research policies ideas historically associated acknowledges condemns role genetic science played eugenics example reiterates skepticism prominently aired coauthored hrefhttpswwwvoxcomthebigidea201751815655638charlesmurrayraceiqsamharrissciencefreespeech2017 emvoxem articlea idea genetic differences linked racial iq gap importantly expertly sets current state genetic research argues philosophical case know subject consistent egalitarian worldview book feels incomplete comes question society restructured address inequities linked genetic lotterypcenter centerpthe scientific idea ones genes affect ones life outcomes isnt novel early cold war period researchers conducting systematic behavioral genetics studies different types siblings twins particular identical twins share twice genetic material fraternal twins genes important factors equal life outcomes identicaltwin pairs similar fraternaltwin pairs read given trait estimated x percent genetic y percent attributed shared environment z percent unshared environment probably citing twin studyppthis work generally tended conclusion genes strong effect traits rarely effect allpowerful skeptics especially left dismiss findings claiming instance identical twins similarity life outcomes originate treated alike precisely embecauseem present parents identical happen genes past decade behavioral geneticists moved traditional experimental designs focused individuals actual dnappone new technique allows researchers compare siblingsnot twins siblingsby reference random genetic draw received parents chance sibling pairs genetically similar random dna draws happened pick parental source harden example reports shares 446 percent genes brother expected average 50 percentppif sibling pairs genetically similar tend similar life outcomes confident relationship causationnot mere correlationbecause genetic similarities emerge random process similar randomized scientific experiment nature randomization general research shows conclusions drawn researchers early twin studies correct methods produce somewhat different estimates effect geneswhich harden depicts useful chart summarizing research thats conducted areas education height age birth bodymass index heritability estimates educational attainment instance range roughly 20 40 percent depending research technique applies line genes matter greatly wide range important outcomes analytical method instance suggests genes associated educational attainment predict ones adult income level ones parents income level high score genetic metric times likely graduate college low scoreppbut point lets moment informed readers noted idea gene cause trait isnt simple language suggest harden explains genes dont operate vacuum instead express human societies characterized unique biases technologies cultural practices economic structures educational systems extent genes said cause way thats influenced environmental contextppas sociologist christopher jencks hrefhttpswwwgooglecomurlsatrctjqesrcssourcewebcdved2ahukewjvp5deuu3yahvbut8khakwa38qfnoecaiqaqurlhttp3a2f2fphilsciarchivepittedu2f10972f12fsesardicdocusgaovvaw2jsmxv7yko2mfs5su6ahclpointed outa society refused educate redheads gene redheadedness seen cause illiteracy randomly assigned child possess gene child grow unable read resulting redheadbrunette gap nominally associated genetic marker gap hardly emintractableem society fix equitable redheads wide availability eyeglasses technology addresses genetic disadvantages associated bad eyesight nonhypothetical example shows effects genetic difference vary widely based societal technological environment difference expressedppso thinking genetic findings affect social policy cant stop conclusion genes cause set percentage outcomes need flesh emhowem cause outcomes ask processes reasonably changedppas harden notes genes affect educational attainment expressed brain begin affecting development early life affect intelligence noncognitive skills immediately occurs reader hard imagine modern world intelligence noncognitive skills dont affect far goes schoolthough course life better people born bad genetic luck area including improving educationppjenckss cautionary theoretical tale red hair instructive plenty ways genes set motion positive negative environmental feedback loops harden reports instance children genes associated academic success tend intellectual stimulation parents genes contribute hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogthegeneticsofparentinghow parented generallya hrefhttpsscholarcoloradoeduconcernundergraduate_honors_theses6t053g52qhow attractive area perceived beppnonetheless clear comprehensively addressing unfairness caused genes couldnt accomplished merely making bigoted fact bigotries artificial limitations fall awayie come closer achieving equality opportunity associated free tolerant societygenes actually emmore empronounced effect outcomes genetic gifts held harden discusses fascinating studies regard estonia instance genes educational attainment shown produce increased advantage children came age soviet withdrawal 1994 true recent cohorts american women whove constrained traditional gender roles forebearsppand truly address unfair social outcomes associated genes wed need usual principles freemarket liberalism address enormous economic dividends paid possess highly remunerative skills genetic underpinnings brings shortcomings hardens bookpcenter centerpharden correct earn genes matter homes born notes combine shared environment factors estimated genetic effects twin studies unearned causes explain explainwith leftover portion comprising sort free residual serves illustrate identical twins growing end somewhat different paths residual figure tends 20 percent educational outcomes twice incomeppharden right recognize power genes invoking justify inequality natural phenomenon genes emexplainem extent people economically productive earn given demands modern economy genes luck structure economy changeppat micro level harden lot useful insights suggestions example points policies narrow widen genetic inequalities interventions help people genetic predisposition obesity example cigarette taxes help reduce smoking people emnot emespecially risk genetically leaving intractable addictions pay price time feed habit urges researchers ignore genetics study peoples traits efforts change argument emquilletteem readers hrefhttpsquillettecom20170803sociologysstagnationpartiigeneticconfoundingbeen familiar witha 2017ppbut looking abstract considerations reader left grappling enormous challenge traditional concepts meritocracy freemarket economics hardens analysis implicitly presents area found emthe genetic lottery ema bit thin authors expertise rooted genetics modes economic redistribution outlinesem emthe philosophical principles play nicely requisite hattips john rawlss hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesoriginalpositionveiignveil ignorancea doesnt succeed showing geneticallyinformed rawlsian policymaking approach work practiceppharden writes school curricula structured way thats equitypromoting performancemaximizing isnt clear best tradeoff goals focus educational efforts lowestability students bring important baseline mathematical verbal skill teaching highestability students drive achievement economy inventions medical breakthroughs help including people born future genes tradeoff involves raw utilitarian costbenefit analysis question subjectively value equity sakeppthinking kind tradeoff leads reader larger questions extend classroom capitalism pushes use talents good compensated return keeps busy working produces wellspring goods services discoveriesbut allows far richer harden acknowledges instrumental value market processes create inequality course people americans particular economic freedom good modern welfare states seek harness productive efficiencies freedoms associated capitalism addressing poverty low social mobility taxes transfer payments regulations education incentives developed countries government spending tends fall roughly hrefhttpsourworldindataorggraphercountrylevelgovernmentspendingvsincomeyscalelinearminpopulationfilter1000000040 60 percent gdpa forms policy disagreement countries rooted way questions relating big social safety net structuredpiframe srchttpsourworldindataorggraphercountrylevelgovernmentspendingvsincomeyscalelinearminpopulationfilter10000000iframepharden clearly thinks safety net stronger case barely rises sketch theres little engagement example longstanding hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcom201910incomeinequalityhassoaredwhiletaxeshavebecomedramaticallylessprogressiveornotcomplicateda hrefhttpswwwrealclearpolicycomarticles20191112no_the_us_does_not_have_the_highest_child_poverty_rates_in_the_world_111303htmlacademica hrefhttpswwwnationalreviewcomcornertrumpvotersamericanworkingclassdiscontentdebatesa roots american poverty inequality including question generous social programs hrefhttpswwwaeiorgresearchproductsreporttheconservativecaseagainstchildallowancescreate perverse incentivesa harden cites power genes family background evidence understanding personal responsibility overblown doesnt weeds kind policy change follow insightppto fair harden set write book required speak geneticistem ema philosopher policy wonk succeeded counts muchneeded case proposition progressives continue ignore reality human geneticsppppp

6139496c7bc5f87cee812c7d

Why Afghan women are fighting back

pi was a defiant little girl one afternoon i came home with my nails painted a grave sin my mother took one look and told me to get the filth off of my nails before she chopped off each fingerp pmy mother could be fierce and she punished me frequently but even then i knew that her threat was bluster she might smack me but she wasnt going to take off any digitsp pempty threats are used as leverage to entice certain behaviour but what if the threats are real for the girls living under taliban control in afghanistan threats are not theatre they are promises even for transgressions as small as painting their fingernails they face real consequencesp divdiv psaturday marks 20 years since the fall of the world trade center a day that brought unimaginable devastation heartbreak and loss to america but if there was one glimmer of hope that came from that tragic moment it was for the women and girls of afghanistan after 911 and the conflict that followed a level of freedom unknown to previous generations came to their countryp pi remember watching the planes crash on television i was at work in the netherlands at the time and sat horrified with my colleagues as we watched we wondered how the worlds superpower would respond to such an evil attack on the american homeland they certainly had the power resources and reason to go and obliterate their newfound enemy sitting there we could never have guessed that this tragedy would end up bringing more rights and freedoms to women in afghanistanp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages563558387e1631037520919300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarh5how 911 created the surveillance stateh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarspanbyspan jacob siegelapdivadiv pthe united states could have gone into afghanistan taken its revenge and left president bidens continual a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210816remarksbypresidentbidenonafghanistan target_blankdefencea over the past weeks has been that he was following the original plan we went to afghanistan almost 20 years ago with clear goals get those who attacked us on september 11supthsup 2001 and make sure al qaeda could not use afghanistan as a base from which to attack us againp pbut this is not where the legacy of 911 ends it was not all necessary revenge and retaliation instead we offered to help rebuild and provide hope to those who had not had it before together with our afghan allies we built a more inclusive society for women and girls in the belief that precisely this kind of modernisation would reduce the danger of a taliban restorationp pas adam tooze explains in his brilliant a relnoopener hrefhttpsadamtoozesubstackcompadamtoozeschartbook29afghanistans target_blanksubstacka from 2003 to 2018 the number of women enrolled in university rose from 7200 to 49000 female life expectancy increased by almost 10 years from 20012019 whereas in 2000 tooze explains afghan men lived longer than women now afghanistan has the normal pattern of women outliving their menfolk rates of literacy among females more than doubled between 20002018p pa generation of girls was raised without knowing life under taliban control and they soared in 2017 an allgirls robotics team was founded known as the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnation20210820afghangirlsroboticsteam target_blankafghan dreamersa who went on to win the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20171129worldafghanistangirlsroboticshtml target_blankentrepreneurial challengea at the robotex festival in estonia in 2008 afghanistan saw its first female mayor a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewsweekcomafghanistansfirstfemalemayorterrifiedwhatscometaliban1620695 target_blankazra jafaria in the town of nili and she was just the first of many females to hold a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorg202108181029014825afghanwomenpoliticianstalibanresistance target_blankpolitical positionsa including salima mazari zarifa ghanfari and fawzia koofi women made up a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesagenerationofafghanyouthafghanistanamericantroopspullouttalibanbiden11625667435 target_blank40 of the most recent class of graduatesa from the american university of afghanistan they have their own a relnoopener hrefhttpsnypostcom20210903afghanistansallfemaleorchestrafallssilent target_blankallfemale orchestraa female entrepreneursa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbushcenterorgpublicationsarticles2021policyrecsprotectingafghanwomenandgirlshtml target_blank invested 77 million over 18 yearsa resulting in 77000 jobs their rights were a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbrookingseduessaythefateofwomensrightsinafghanistan target_blankpromoteda by the 2004 afghanistan constitution in article 44 a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcdnlawstanfordeduwpcontentuploads201510alepconstitutionallaw2ded_englishpdf target_blankstatinga that the state shall devise and implement effective programs to create and foster balanced education for womenp ptheir successes were aweinspiring they were also a source of pride for americans they were in part americas girls girls raised to know a certain level of freedom with their rights secure and protected thanks to the usled intervention prompted by 911p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages77451116scaled1300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarh5how the neocons got away with ith5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanbyspan razib khanapdivadiv pin 2002 the united nations development programme produced the a relnoopener hrefhttphdrundporgsitesdefaultfilesrbas_ahdr2002_enpdf target_blankarab human development reporta aimed at providing a path for growth and opportunity in the arab world the report concluded that three factors contribute to the constraints of human development in the arab world freedom empowerment of women and knowledge individuals needed to be educated beyond religious ideology their human rights respected and womens rights expanded and for the last 20 years the united states has supported women and these goals a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbushcenterorgpublicationsarticles2021policyrecsprotectingafghanwomenandgirlshtml target_blankthrougha the us agency for international development and state departmentfunded programmes as well as encouraging womens participation in government and the private sectorp pbut now womens rights are being ripped away a relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcom202108bidensmostheartlessbetrayal target_blankbidens betrayala reverberates sharply across the country he offered a false dichotomy to the american people either pull all troops out or go back to fighting an endless war pulling out the remaining us troops initiated the swift collapse of the afghan government will result in afghanistan returning to a terrorist safe haven and removed the shield protecting womens rights in the country surely this is not the legacy that americans want to leave behind on the 20supthsup anniversary of 911p pthe effects of taliban control are already being felt by women the taliban have announced that women must cover their faces to attend university and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibaninstructfemaleafghanstudentstocovertheirfacesntksgvn29utm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwitterechobox16309099481 target_blankgenders must segregatea both in class and while entering and exiting the building they are banned from sports considered by the talibans cultural commission as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2021sep08afghanwomentobebannedfromplayingsporttalibansay target_blankneither appropriate nor necessarya for women women can no longer hold a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibanbreaksupwomensrightsdemonstrationinkabulw6208d7bd target_blankministerial positionsa there are no women included in the new administration some are being told not to go to work allegedly a temporary change while the taliban draw up new a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnncom20210825asiatalibanwomenworkplacesafghanistanintlindexhtml target_blankwomen related proceduresa they face real violence if they disobey those speaking out against the taliban are being deemed a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blankagents of americaa and accused of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blanknot being true muslimsa they are being erased from the public square and the taliban havent been in control for a full month yetp pwhat will happen to americas afghan girls the ones born and raised since 2001 the girls inspired by the allure of freedom liberalism and chasing their own dreams those who have until now not known the crushing burdens and barriers of life under the taliban what will become of the defiant girls who speak up for their rights the ones who question the religious fundamentalism of the talibanp pmany will suffer severe punishments violence will be unleashed against them in a magnitude that those in the west do not comprehend body parts will be chopped off sexual harassment rapes honour violence and murders will become the normp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages5248355741scalede1630666044956300x173jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarh5we need to talk about 911h5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanbyspan lionel shriverapdivadiv pbut unlike before this time is different the women of afghanistan will fight back theyve already begun protests are erupting across the country women of all ages are a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercombbcyaldahakimstatus1435241207194603526 target_blankstanding firma against the taliban in kabul women attempted to march to the presidential palace a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibanbreaksupwomensrightsdemonstrationinkabulw6208d7bd target_blankdemanding the right to work and to be included in governmenta they were attacked for it with videos and photos revealing the bloody violence they faced at the hands of the taliban at a subsequent protest in kabul one woman a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blankstateda we dont care if they beat us or even shoot us we want to defend our rights we will continue our protests even if we get killedp pat another protest in herat calling for girls education one of the organisers basira taheri a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcbsnewscomnewsafghanistannewswomenprotesttalibandemandrightseducation target_blankexplaineda the women of this land are informed and educated we are not afraid we are united pashtana durrani the executive director of learn afghanistan a bulwark for afghan womens rightsa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomhalagoranistatus1427719596014981134 target_blank saida we are going to make sure [girls] get to go to school they get to go to work if not on the terms that we want in public were going to make it happen anywaysp pas the saying often attributed to thomas carlyle goes once the mind has been expanded by a big idea it will never go back to its original state the taliban cannot undo the last 20 years these women and girls are refusing to submit to a new dark age that glimmer of hope sparked after 911 has not been extinguished even with the taliban in control americas girls arent going to give upp pand now the world is watching before 911 the atrocities committed by the taliban on the women of afghanistan received very little coverage in the west now everyone knows names like malala and bibi aisha and we will come to know more names like basira taheris as we cheer them on two decades on these women may be the most enduring achievement of the american intervention that followed 911p pthey are defiant and as a former defiant girl i can say with conviction that they cant beat or cut that defiance out of youp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202109whyafghanwomenarefightingbackappcommentsview commentsa

pi defiant little girl afternoon came home nails painted grave sin mother took look told filth nails chopped fingerp pmy mother fierce punished frequently knew threat bluster smack wasnt going digitsp pempty threats leverage entice certain behaviour threats real girls living taliban control afghanistan threats theatre promises transgressions small painting fingernails face real consequencesp divdiv psaturday marks 20 years fall world trade center day brought unimaginable devastation heartbreak loss america glimmer hope came tragic moment women girls afghanistan 911 conflict followed level freedom unknown previous generations came countryp pi remember watching planes crash television work netherlands time sat horrified colleagues watched wondered worlds superpower respond evil attack american homeland certainly power resources reason obliterate newfound enemy sitting guessed tragedy end bringing rights freedoms women afghanistanp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages563558387e1631037520919300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarh5how 911 created surveillance stateh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109911andthedeathofdemocracyrefinnarspanbyspan jacob siegelapdivadiv pthe united states gone afghanistan taken revenge left president bidens continual relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210816remarksbypresidentbidenonafghanistan target_blankdefencea past weeks following original plan went afghanistan 20 years ago clear goals attacked september 11supthsup 2001 sure al qaeda use afghanistan base attack againp pbut legacy 911 ends necessary revenge retaliation instead offered help rebuild provide hope afghan allies built inclusive society women girls belief precisely kind modernisation reduce danger taliban restorationp pas adam tooze explains brilliant relnoopener hrefhttpsadamtoozesubstackcompadamtoozeschartbook29afghanistans target_blanksubstacka 2003 2018 number women enrolled university rose 7200 49000 female life expectancy increased 10 years 20012019 2000 tooze explains afghan men lived longer women afghanistan normal pattern women outliving menfolk rates literacy females doubled 20002018p pa generation girls raised knowing life taliban control soared 2017 allgirls robotics team founded known relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnation20210820afghangirlsroboticsteam target_blankafghan dreamersa went win relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20171129worldafghanistangirlsroboticshtml target_blankentrepreneurial challengea robotex festival estonia 2008 afghanistan saw female mayor relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewsweekcomafghanistansfirstfemalemayorterrifiedwhatscometaliban1620695 target_blankazra jafaria town nili females hold relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorg202108181029014825afghanwomenpoliticianstalibanresistance target_blankpolitical positionsa including salima mazari zarifa ghanfari fawzia koofi women relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesagenerationofafghanyouthafghanistanamericantroopspullouttalibanbiden11625667435 target_blank40 recent class graduatesa american university afghanistan relnoopener hrefhttpsnypostcom20210903afghanistansallfemaleorchestrafallssilent target_blankallfemale orchestraa female entrepreneursa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbushcenterorgpublicationsarticles2021policyrecsprotectingafghanwomenandgirlshtml target_blank invested 77 million 18 yearsa resulting 77000 jobs rights relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbrookingseduessaythefateofwomensrightsinafghanistan target_blankpromoteda 2004 afghanistan constitution article 44 relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcdnlawstanfordeduwpcontentuploads201510alepconstitutionallaw2ded_englishpdf target_blankstatinga state shall devise implement effective programs create foster balanced education womenp ptheir successes aweinspiring source pride americans americas girls girls raised know certain level freedom rights secure protected thanks usled intervention prompted 911p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages77451116scaled1300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarh5how neocons got away ith5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanbyspan razib khanapdivadiv pin 2002 united nations development programme produced relnoopener hrefhttphdrundporgsitesdefaultfilesrbas_ahdr2002_enpdf target_blankarab human development reporta aimed providing path growth opportunity arab world report concluded factors contribute constraints human development arab world freedom empowerment women knowledge individuals needed educated religious ideology human rights respected womens rights expanded 20 years united states supported women goals relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbushcenterorgpublicationsarticles2021policyrecsprotectingafghanwomenandgirlshtml target_blankthrougha agency international development state departmentfunded programmes encouraging womens participation government private sectorp pbut womens rights ripped away relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcom202108bidensmostheartlessbetrayal target_blankbidens betrayala reverberates sharply country offered false dichotomy american people pull troops fighting endless war pulling remaining troops initiated swift collapse afghan government result afghanistan returning terrorist safe haven removed shield protecting womens rights country surely legacy americans want leave 20supthsup anniversary 911p pthe effects taliban control felt women taliban announced women cover faces attend university relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibaninstructfemaleafghanstudentstocovertheirfacesntksgvn29utm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwitterechobox16309099481 target_blankgenders segregatea class entering exiting building banned sports considered talibans cultural commission relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2021sep08afghanwomentobebannedfromplayingsporttalibansay target_blankneither appropriate necessarya women women longer hold relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibanbreaksupwomensrightsdemonstrationinkabulw6208d7bd target_blankministerial positionsa women included new administration told work allegedly temporary change taliban draw new relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnncom20210825asiatalibanwomenworkplacesafghanistanintlindexhtml target_blankwomen related proceduresa face real violence disobey speaking taliban deemed relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blankagents americaa accused relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blanknot true muslimsa erased public square taliban havent control month yetp pwhat happen americas afghan girls ones born raised 2001 girls inspired allure freedom liberalism chasing dreams known crushing burdens barriers life taliban defiant girls speak rights ones question religious fundamentalism talibanp pmany suffer severe punishments violence unleashed magnitude west comprehend body parts chopped sexual harassment rapes honour violence murders normp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages5248355741scalede1630666044956300x173jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarh5we need talk 911h5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanbyspan lionel shriverapdivadiv pbut unlike time different women afghanistan fight theyve begun protests erupting country women ages relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercombbcyaldahakimstatus1435241207194603526 target_blankstanding firma taliban kabul women attempted march presidential palace relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticletalibanbreaksupwomensrightsdemonstrationinkabulw6208d7bd target_blankdemanding right work included governmenta attacked videos photos revealing bloody violence faced hands taliban subsequent protest kabul woman relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesafghanwomenprotesttalibansallmalegovernmentfaceviolentcrackdown11631105098 target_blankstateda dont care beat shoot want defend rights continue protests killedp pat protest herat calling girls education organisers basira taheri relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcbsnewscomnewsafghanistannewswomenprotesttalibandemandrightseducation target_blankexplaineda women land informed educated afraid united pashtana durrani executive director learn afghanistan bulwark afghan womens rightsa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomhalagoranistatus1427719596014981134 target_blank saidawe going sure [girls] school work terms want public going happen anywaysp pas saying attributed thomas carlyle goes mind expanded big idea original state taliban undo 20 years women girls refusing submit new dark age glimmer hope sparked 911 extinguished taliban control americas girls arent going upp pand world watching 911 atrocities committed taliban women afghanistan received little coverage west knows names like malala bibi aisha come know names like basira taheris cheer decades women enduring achievement american intervention followed 911p pthey defiant defiant girl conviction cant beat cut defiance youp hrefhttpsunherdcom202109whyafghanwomenarefightingbackappcommentsview commentsa

6139497b7bc5f87cee812c81

Quillette's Best on “Gender Identity”

figureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210405at111707ampng altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figureimg altquillettes best on gender identity srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109gender1pngpstronga hrefhttpsquillettecomtagwhensonsbecomedaughterswhen sons become daughtersastrong angus foxpullia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210402whensonsbecomedaughtersparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 1alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210406whensonsbecomedaughterspartiiparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 2alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210412whensonsbecomedaughterspartiiiparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 3alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210421whensonsbecomedaughterspartivparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 4alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210511whensonsbecomedaughterspartvthelinksbetweentransidentitygiftedmindscategoricalthinkingandanimepart 5alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210607whensonsbecomedaughterspartviasexualityintelligenceandthetranscooptionofintersexdiscoursepart 6aliulpparents have been complaining about their kids lifestyle choices and political convictions since the dawn of time of course but rarely have such choices involved committing oneself to the possibility of sterility and a lifetime of medical therapiespfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109da_vinci_vitruve_luc_viatourjpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20190411ignoringdifferencesbetweenmenandwomenisthewrongwaytoaddressgenderdysphoriaignoring differences between men and women is the wrong way to address gender dysphoriaastrong kathleen stockppwe need a sensible collective approach that doesnt leave us stuck between a damaging tendency toward realitydenial on one side and a brutal realism destructive of good social relations on the otherpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109gettyimages1174630229jpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1024 height714figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20200919howthenonbinarytrendhurtsthosewithrealgenderdysphoriahow the nonbinary trend hurts those with real gender dysphoriaa strong debra sohppto create one group that includes people who do not actually have gender dysphoriaand to then call everyone transdiminishes the suffering of those with gender dysphoria a real condition recognized by medicinepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109sharonmccutcheon6sj6d2ytwuyunsplashe1569301690958jpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190924nooneisborninthewrongbodystrongno one is born in the wrong bodystronga william j malone colin wright and julia d robertsonppup until age seven many children often believe that if a boy puts on a dress he embecomesem a girl to such extent as any such identity may exist the concept relies on stereotypes that encourage the conflation of gender with sexpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mentaldisorderpng altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20171006misunderstandingnewkindgenderdysphoriamisunderstanding a new kind of gender dysphoriaastrong lisa marchiano ppwhat will it take for this contagion to be seen for what it is so that its most damaging effects can be prevented recently one mom told me that i was her only hope she surely deserves better than thatpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109photo1583283086244985c8e17dc4dpng altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20210311replacingonekindofconversiontherapywithanotherreplacing one kind of conversion therapy with anotherastrong james essesppto my knowledge gender dysphoria is the only such condition in which the officially sanctioned treatment is to encourage in all cases the distressing and anxietyprovoking thoughts inside ones own headpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109manifestantes_protestam_contra_e_a_favor_de_filosofa_judith_butler_em_sao_paulo_38245843701jpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height935figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20190313gendersjourneyfromsextopsychologyabriefhistorygenders journey from sex to psychology a brief historyastrong tomas bogardusppthe selfidentification view is appealing because it respects individual autonomy but it also has at its core a serious definitional problem it is circular emwhat is a woman its someone who identifies as a womanem weve used the word to be defined in the definition itselfpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109j3k6y4jpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1580 height1053figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20200202imayhavegenderdysphoriabutistillprefertobasemylifeonbiologynotfantasyi may have gender dysphoria but i still prefer to base my life on biology not fantasyastrong debbie haytonppyes gender dysphoria is a real condition i know because i have it the feeling that my male biology is at odds with my desire to have a female body but i dont have to invent some mystical spiritual force called gender identity to explain itpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20201002at13615pmgigapixelwidth2500pxjpg altquillettes best on gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20201006forgetwhatgenderactiviststellyouhereswhatmedicaltransitionlookslikeforget what gender activists tell you heres what medical transition looks likeastrong scott newgentppwe now have thousands of nave parents walking their children into gendertreatment centers often based on internetpeddled narratives that present the transition experience through a gauzy rainbow lenspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mccloskeyjpgjpg altquillettes best on gender identity width3960 height2640figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20191110reflectionsonmydecisiontochangegenderreflections on my decision to change genderastrong deirdre mccloskeyppin that autumn of first realization in 1995 i left to my wifestupidly husbandstylethe task of telling my children my grown son and my collegefreshman daughterp

figureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210405at111707ampng altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figureimg altquillettes best gender identity srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109gender1pngpstronga hrefhttpsquillettecomtagwhensonsbecomedaughterswhen sons daughtersastrong angus foxpullia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210402whensonsbecomedaughtersparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 1alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210406whensonsbecomedaughterspartiiparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 2alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210412whensonsbecomedaughterspartiiiparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 3alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210421whensonsbecomedaughterspartivparentsoftransitioningboysspeakoutontheirownsufferingpart 4alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210511whensonsbecomedaughterspartvthelinksbetweentransidentitygiftedmindscategoricalthinkingandanimepart 5alilia hrefhttpsquillettecom20210607whensonsbecomedaughterspartviasexualityintelligenceandthetranscooptionofintersexdiscoursepart 6aliulpparents complaining kids lifestyle choices political convictions dawn time course rarely choices involved committing oneself possibility sterility lifetime medical therapiespfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109da_vinci_vitruve_luc_viatourjpg altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20190411ignoringdifferencesbetweenmenandwomenisthewrongwaytoaddressgenderdysphoriaignoring differences men women wrong way address gender dysphoriaastrong kathleen stockppwe need sensible collective approach doesnt leave stuck damaging tendency realitydenial brutal realism destructive good social relations otherpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109gettyimages1174630229jpg altquillettes best gender identity width1024 height714figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20200919howthenonbinarytrendhurtsthosewithrealgenderdysphoriahow nonbinary trend hurts real gender dysphoriaa strong debra sohppto create group includes people actually gender dysphoriaand transdiminishes suffering gender dysphoria real condition recognized medicinepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109sharonmccutcheon6sj6d2ytwuyunsplashe1569301690958jpg altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190924nooneisborninthewrongbodystrongno born wrong bodystronga william j malone colin wright julia d robertsonppup age seven children believe boy puts dress embecomesem girl extent identity exist concept relies stereotypes encourage conflation gender sexpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mentaldisorderpng altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20171006misunderstandingnewkindgenderdysphoriamisunderstanding new kind gender dysphoriaastrong lisa marchiano ppwhat contagion seen damaging effects prevented recently mom told hope surely deserves better thatpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109photo1583283086244985c8e17dc4dpng altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20210311replacingonekindofconversiontherapywithanotherreplacing kind conversion therapy anotherastrong james essesppto knowledge gender dysphoria condition officially sanctioned treatment encourage cases distressing anxietyprovoking thoughts inside ones headpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109manifestantes_protestam_contra_e_a_favor_de_filosofa_judith_butler_em_sao_paulo_38245843701jpg altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height935figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20190313gendersjourneyfromsextopsychologyabriefhistorygenders journey sex psychology brief historyastrong tomas bogardusppthe selfidentification view appealing respects individual autonomy core definitional problem circular emwhat woman identifies womanem weve word defined definition itselfpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109j3k6y4jpg altquillettes best gender identity width1580 height1053figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20200202imayhavegenderdysphoriabutistillprefertobasemylifeonbiologynotfantasyi gender dysphoria prefer base life biology fantasyastrong debbie haytonppyes gender dysphoria real condition know feeling male biology odds desire female body dont invent mystical spiritual force called gender identity explain itpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20201002at13615pmgigapixelwidth2500pxjpg altquillettes best gender identity width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20201006forgetwhatgenderactiviststellyouhereswhatmedicaltransitionlookslikeforget gender activists tell heres medical transition looks likeastrong scott newgentppwe thousands nave parents walking children gendertreatment centers based internetpeddled narratives present transition experience gauzy rainbow lenspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mccloskeyjpgjpg altquillettes best gender identity width3960 height2640figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20191110reflectionsonmydecisiontochangegenderreflections decision change genderastrong deirdre mccloskeyppin autumn realization 1995 left wifestupidly husbandstylethe task telling children grown son collegefreshman daughterp

6139497c7bc5f87cee812c82

Auction markets where you most expect them

pat christies adam smiths emwealth of nationsem first edition estimate is in the 80k120k range bid a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwchristiescomenlotlot6332206cosid41196479ciddm462329bid278629690 target_blankhereap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109auctionmarketswhereyoumostexpectthemhtmlauction markets where you most expect thema appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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613949a97bc5f87cee812c85

The next attack on the Affordable Care Act may cost you free preventive health care

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplashscaledjpg width600 altthis photograph showed a young child being cradled by her mother while she was receiving an intramuscular vaccination in her left thigh muscle notice that the nurse had immobilized the young girls leg using her left hand srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplashscaledjpg 2560w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash300x216jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash500x359jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash768x552jpg 768w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash1536x1104jpg 1536w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash2048x1472jpg 2048w classwppostimage height431divpempaul shafer is an assistant professor of health law policy and management at the boston university school of public health a hrefhttpstwittercomshaferprshaferpra alex hoagland is a phd candidate in health economics at boston university a hrefhttpstwittercomhoagland_alexhoagland_alexaemp pmany americans breathed a sigh of relief when the supreme court left the affordable care act aca in place following its a hrefhttpswwwsupremecourtgovopinions20pdf19840_6jfmpdfthird major legal challengea in june 2021 this decision left a hrefhttpssourcewustledu201702americansdividedonobamacarerepealpollfindswidely supported policiesa in place like ensuring coverage a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovcoveragepreexistingconditionsregardless of preexisting conditionsa coverage for a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovyoungadultschildrenunder26dependents up to age 26a on their parents plan and removal of a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovhealthcarelawprotectionslifetimeandyearlylimitsannual and lifetime benefit limitsap pbut the hits keep coming one of the most popular benefits offered by the aca a hrefhttpswwwkfforghealthreformfactsheetpreventiveservicescoveredbyprivatehealthplansfree preventive carea through many employerbased and marketplace insurance plans is under attack by another legal domino a hrefhttpswwwvoxcom20214222360341obamacarelawsuitsupremecourtlittlesisterskelleybecerrareedoconnornondelegationkelley v becerraa as university of michigan law professor nicholas bagley sees it [t]his time the laws opponents a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomideasarchive202106nextmajorchallengeaffordablecareact619159stand a good chance of succeedingap pwe are a hrefhttpsscholargooglecomcitationsuserbdt820kaaaajhlenpublic healtha and a hrefhttpsscholargooglecomcitationsuserks_zliaaaajhleneconomicsa researchers at boston university who have been studying how preventive care is covered by the aca and what this means for patients with this policy now in jeopardy health care in the us stands to take a big step backwardp pstrongwhat did the aca do for preventive healthstrongp pthe affordable care act tried to achieve the twin ideals of a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovglossaryaffordablecareactmaking health care more accessible while reducing health care spendinga it a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovglossarymarketplacecreated marketplacesa for individuals to purchase health insurance and a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovmedicaidchipmedicaidexpansionandyouexpanded medicaida to increase coverage for more lowincome peoplep pone way it has tried to reach both goals is to prioritize a hrefhttpswwwkfforghealthreformreportpreventiveservicestrackerpreventive servicesa that maximize patient health and minimize cost like cancer screenings vaccinations and access to contraception eliminating financial barriers to health screenings increases the likelihood that common but costly chronic conditions such as heart disease will be a hrefhttpsdoiorg101377hlthaff20080701diagnosed early onap pa hrefhttpswwwlawcornelleducfrtext2925907152713section 2713a of the aca requires insurers to offer a hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovcoveragepreventivecarebenefitsfull coverage of preventive servicesa that are endorsed by three federal groups the us preventive services task force the advisory committee on immunization practices and the health resources and services administration this means that eligible preventive services ordered by your doctor wont cost you anything out of pocket for example a hrefhttpswwwcongressgovbill116thcongresshousebill748the cares acta used this provision to ensure covid19 vaccines would be free for many americansp premoving the financial barrier has drastically reduced the average cost of a range of preventive services our study found that the costs of a hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248wellchild visitsa and a hrefhttpsdoiorg101097mlr0000000000000610mammogramsa were reduced by 56 and 74 respectively from 2006 to 2018 we also found that the aca reduced the share of childrens preventive checkups that included outofpocket costs a hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248from over 50 in 2010 to under 15 in 2018ap pstrongresidual costs for preventive services remainstrongp pdespite these reductions in costs there are limitations to this benefit for example it a hrefhttpswwwcarecreditcomwelluhealthwellnesswhatiscoveredinpreventivecarewhatisntdoesnt cover followup tests or treatmentsa this means that if a routine mammogram or colonoscopy reveals something that requires further care patients may have to pay for the initial screening test too and some patients still a hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnationalhealthsciencegettingchargedforfreepreventivecare2014011798fbd1fa7ec211e395c60a7aa80874bc_storyhtmlreceive unexpected billsa for preventive care that should have been covered this can happen for example when providers submit incorrect billing codes to insurers which have a hrefhttpswwwconsumerreportsorghealthinsurancewhattodowhenyourinsurerwontcoverfreepreventivecarespecific and often idiosyncratic preventive care guidelinesap pwe also studied the a hrefhttpsdoiorg101016jypmed2021106690residual outofpocket costsa that privately insured americans had after using eligible preventive services in 2018 we found that these patients paid between 75 million to 219 million per year combined for services that should have been free for them unexpected preventive care bills were most likely to hit patients living in rural areas or the south as well as those seeking womens services such as contraception and other reproductive health care among patients attempting to get a free wellness visit from their doctor nearly 1 in 5 were later asked to pay for itp pnevertheless the preventive health provision of the aca has resulted in a hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248significant reductions in patient costsa for many essential and popular services and a hrefhttpslabbloguofmhealthorgindustrydxwhathappenswhenpreventivecarebecomesfreetopatientsremoving financial barriersa is a key way to encourage patients to use preventive services intended to protect their healthp pstrongthe threat of kelley v becerrastrongp pthe plaintiffs who brought the a hrefhttpskhnorgnewsarticlelawsuittargetshealthlawnochargecoverageofpreventiveexamslikemammogramslatest legal challengea to the aca kelley v becerra object to covering contraception and preexposure prophylaxis prep for hiv on religious and moral grounds the case is currently awaiting decision in a district court in texas but seems to be headed to the supreme courtp pthe case rests on a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomideasarchive202106nextmajorchallengeaffordablecareact619159two legal issuesa 1 violation of the nondelegation doctrine and 2 the appointments clause of the constitution the a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgnondelegation_doctrinenondelegation doctrinea is a rarely used legal argument that requires congress to specify how their powers should be used it essentially argues that congress was too vague by not specifying which preventive services would be included in section 2713 up front the a hrefhttpsconstitutioncongressgovbrowseessayartii_s2_c2_2_1_4appointments clausea specifies that the people using government powers must be officers of the united states in this case it is unclear whether those in the federal groups that determine eligible preventive care services qualifyp ptexas district judge reed oconnor has indicated so far that he a hrefhttpswwwlatimescombusinessstory20210621obamacarelegalthreatremainstakes a kind viewa toward the plaintiffs case he could rule that this provision of the aca is unconstitutional and put the case on a path to the supreme courtp pstrongpatients stand to lose more than just moneystrongp pif section 2713 were repealed insurers would have the freedom to reimpose patient costsharing for preventive care in the short run this could increase the financial strain that patients face when seeking preventive care and discourage them from doing so in the long run this could result in increased rates of preventable and expensivetotreat chronic conditions and because section 2713 is what allows free covid19 vaccines for those with private health insurance some patients a hrefhttpsacasignupsnet210620updatedwellwasfunwhileitlastednextbigacalawsuitcomingdownpikemay have to paya for their vaccines and future boosters if the provision is axedp pthe aca has been instrumental in expanding access to preventive care for millions of americans while the acas preventive health coverage provision isnt perfect a lot of progress that has been made toward lowercost highervalue care may be erased if section 2713 is repealedp pa hrefhttpslabbloguofmhealthorgindustrydxwhathappenswhenpreventivecarebecomesfreetopatientslowerincome patientsa will stand to lose the most and it could make ending the covid19 pandemic that much harderimg srchttpscountertheconversationcomcontent166087countgifdistributorrepublishlightboxbasic altthe conversation width1 height1p pemthis article is republished from a hrefhttpstheconversationcomthe conversationa under a creative commons license read the a hrefhttpstheconversationcomthenextattackontheaffordablecareactmaycostyoufreepreventivehealthcare166087original articlea research for this piece was supported by arnold venturesempthe post a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthenextattackontheaffordablecareactmaycostyoufreepreventivehealthcarethe next attack on the affordable care act may cost you free preventive health carea first appeared on a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplashscaledjpg width600 altthis photograph showed young child cradled mother receiving intramuscular vaccination left thigh muscle notice nurse immobilized young girls leg left hand srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplashscaledjpg 2560w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash300x216jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash500x359jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash768x552jpg 768w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash1536x1104jpg 1536w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202109cdcvqt9v7v6g44unsplash2048x1472jpg 2048w classwppostimage height431divpempaul shafer assistant professor health law policy management boston university school public health hrefhttpstwittercomshaferprshaferpra alex hoagland phd candidate health economics boston university hrefhttpstwittercomhoagland_alexhoagland_alexaemp pmany americans breathed sigh relief supreme court left affordable care act aca place following hrefhttpswwwsupremecourtgovopinions20pdf19840_6jfmpdfthird major legal challengea june 2021 decision left hrefhttpssourcewustledu201702americansdividedonobamacarerepealpollfindswidely supported policiesa place like ensuring coverage hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovcoveragepreexistingconditionsregardless preexisting conditionsa coverage hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovyoungadultschildrenunder26dependents age 26a parents plan removal hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovhealthcarelawprotectionslifetimeandyearlylimitsannual lifetime benefit limitsap pbut hits coming popular benefits offered aca hrefhttpswwwkfforghealthreformfactsheetpreventiveservicescoveredbyprivatehealthplansfree preventive carea employerbased marketplace insurance plans attack legal domino hrefhttpswwwvoxcom20214222360341obamacarelawsuitsupremecourtlittlesisterskelleybecerrareedoconnornondelegationkelley v becerraa university michigan law professor nicholas bagley sees [t]his time laws opponents hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomideasarchive202106nextmajorchallengeaffordablecareact619159stand good chance succeedingap pwe hrefhttpsscholargooglecomcitationsuserbdt820kaaaajhlenpublic healtha hrefhttpsscholargooglecomcitationsuserks_zliaaaajhleneconomicsa researchers boston university studying preventive care covered aca means patients policy jeopardy health care stands big step backwardp pstrongwhat aca preventive healthstrongp pthe affordable care act tried achieve twin ideals hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovglossaryaffordablecareactmaking health care accessible reducing health care spendinga hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovglossarymarketplacecreated marketplacesa individuals purchase health insurance hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovmedicaidchipmedicaidexpansionandyouexpanded medicaida increase coverage lowincome peoplep pone way tried reach goals prioritize hrefhttpswwwkfforghealthreformreportpreventiveservicestrackerpreventive servicesa maximize patient health minimize cost like cancer screenings vaccinations access contraception eliminating financial barriers health screenings increases likelihood common costly chronic conditions heart disease hrefhttpsdoiorg101377hlthaff20080701diagnosed early onap pa hrefhttpswwwlawcornelleducfrtext2925907152713section 2713a aca requires insurers offer hrefhttpswwwhealthcaregovcoveragepreventivecarebenefitsfull coverage preventive servicesa endorsed federal groups preventive services task force advisory committee immunization practices health resources services administration means eligible preventive services ordered doctor wont cost pocket example hrefhttpswwwcongressgovbill116thcongresshousebill748the cares acta provision ensure covid19 vaccines free americansp premoving financial barrier drastically reduced average cost range preventive services study found costs hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248wellchild visitsa hrefhttpsdoiorg101097mlr0000000000000610mammogramsa reduced 56 74 respectively 2006 2018 found aca reduced share childrens preventive checkups included outofpocket costs hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248from 50 2010 15 2018ap pstrongresidual costs preventive services remainstrongp pdespite reductions costs limitations benefit example hrefhttpswwwcarecreditcomwelluhealthwellnesswhatiscoveredinpreventivecarewhatisntdoesnt cover followup tests treatmentsa means routine mammogram colonoscopy reveals requires care patients pay initial screening test patients hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnationalhealthsciencegettingchargedforfreepreventivecare2014011798fbd1fa7ec211e395c60a7aa80874bc_storyhtmlreceive unexpected billsa preventive care covered happen example providers submit incorrect billing codes insurers hrefhttpswwwconsumerreportsorghealthinsurancewhattodowhenyourinsurerwontcoverfreepreventivecarespecific idiosyncratic preventive care guidelinesap pwe studied hrefhttpsdoiorg101016jypmed2021106690residual outofpocket costsa privately insured americans eligible preventive services 2018 found patients paid 75 million 219 million year combined services free unexpected preventive care bills likely hit patients living rural areas south seeking womens services contraception reproductive health care patients attempting free wellness visit doctor nearly 1 5 later asked pay itp pnevertheless preventive health provision aca resulted hrefhttpsdoiorg101001jamanetworkopen20211248significant reductions patient costsa essential popular services hrefhttpslabbloguofmhealthorgindustrydxwhathappenswhenpreventivecarebecomesfreetopatientsremoving financial barriersa key way encourage patients use preventive services intended protect healthp pstrongthe threat kelley v becerrastrongp pthe plaintiffs brought hrefhttpskhnorgnewsarticlelawsuittargetshealthlawnochargecoverageofpreventiveexamslikemammogramslatest legal challengea aca kelley v becerra object covering contraception preexposure prophylaxis prep hiv religious moral grounds case currently awaiting decision district court texas headed supreme courtp pthe case rests hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomideasarchive202106nextmajorchallengeaffordablecareact619159two legal issuesa 1 violation nondelegation doctrine 2 appointments clause constitution hrefhttpsballotpediaorgnondelegation_doctrinenondelegation doctrinea rarely legal argument requires congress specify powers essentially argues congress vague specifying preventive services included section 2713 hrefhttpsconstitutioncongressgovbrowseessayartii_s2_c2_2_1_4appointments clausea specifies people government powers officers united states case unclear federal groups determine eligible preventive care services qualifyp ptexas district judge reed oconnor indicated far hrefhttpswwwlatimescombusinessstory20210621obamacarelegalthreatremainstakes kind viewa plaintiffs case rule provision aca unconstitutional case path supreme courtp pstrongpatients stand lose moneystrongp pif section 2713 repealed insurers freedom reimpose patient costsharing preventive care short run increase financial strain patients face seeking preventive care discourage long run result increased rates preventable expensivetotreat chronic conditions section 2713 allows free covid19 vaccines private health insurance patients hrefhttpsacasignupsnet210620updatedwellwasfunwhileitlastednextbigacalawsuitcomingdownpikemay paya vaccines future boosters provision axedp pthe aca instrumental expanding access preventive care millions americans acas preventive health coverage provision isnt perfect lot progress lowercost highervalue care erased section 2713 repealedp pa hrefhttpslabbloguofmhealthorgindustrydxwhathappenswhenpreventivecarebecomesfreetopatientslowerincome patientsa stand lose ending covid19 pandemic harderimg srchttpscountertheconversationcomcontent166087countgifdistributorrepublishlightboxbasic altthe conversation width1 height1p pemthis article republished hrefhttpstheconversationcomthe conversationa creative commons license read hrefhttpstheconversationcomthenextattackontheaffordablecareactmaycostyoufreepreventivehealthcare166087original articlea research piece supported arnold venturesempthe post hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthenextattackontheaffordablecareactmaycostyoufreepreventivehealthcarethe attack affordable care act cost free preventive healthcarea appeared hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

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Is this proof of a lab leak cover-up?

pthere are many things we still do not know about the origins of this pandemic  including the central issue of whether it began with natural spillover from animals or some kind of laboratory incident but we do know one thing now beyond debate speculative gainoffunction experiments on mutant bat viruses were taking place in wuhan laboratoriesp pthis research carried out in labs that did not have maximum level of biosafety was increasing the infectivity of laboratorycreated diseases by constructing chimeric coronaviruses despite strong denial of such practices by the key chinese scientists and the bioengineering was being funded by united states taxpayers channelled through a charity run by a british scientist despite similar denials from americas most senior public health officials that they supported such science fiction activities in chinese labsp pthe details have been confirmed by the latest batch of documents emerging under us freedom of information rules which unlike in britain actually assist attempts to break through walls of official obfuscation ema hrefhttpstheinterceptcom20210906newdetailsemergeaboutcoronavirusresearchatchineselabthe interceptaem obtained 900 pages of documents detailing two research grants in 2014 and 2019 from the national institutes of health nih to ecohealth alliance this is the charity headed by peter daszak the controversial briton who led efforts to squash conspiracy theories about a possible lab incident after spending years hunting viruses with shi zhengli the nowfamous batwoman expert at wuhan institute of virology wivp divdiv psome of these grant details have emerged previously but these documents include the original proposals along with project updates so significantly flesh out what we did know they highlight how us funding bodies outsourced risky gainoffunction research to china even over a threeyear period between 2014 and 2017 when it was banned in their own nation they also show with new clarity the kind of work taking place in secretive wuhan labs these disclosures fuel the mystery over the pandemic origins while also sparking fresh concerns over top scientists in both china and the west who sought to suppress inquiries into the lab leak hypothesisp pa 31m grant according to the documents was awarded to understand the risk of bat coronavirus emergence through screening thousands of samples collected from the nocturnal creatures this included a chunk of funding worth 599000 for wiv bear in mind that three months ago shi director of its centre for emerging infectious diseases angrily protested over the world pouring filth on an innocent scientist when emphatically refuting that they carried out gainoffunction work my lab has never conducted or cooperated in conducting gof experiments that enhance the virulence of viruses she told the emnew york timesemp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gelttyimages94123770scalede1627662159474300x153jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarh5did the new york times stifle lab leak debateh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarspanbyspan ashley rindsbergapdivadiv paccording to nih the term gainoffunction research describes a type of research that modifies a biological agent so that it confers new or enhanced activity to that agent analysis of these papers show us funds supported construction of new chimeric sarsrelated coronaviruses which combined a spike gene from one with genetic material from another and then showed the resulting creation could infect human cells and mice engineered to display humantype receptors on their cellsp pone new virus had increased pathogenicity over the original virus and three new viruses increased viral load in lung tissues up to ten thousandfold which is most definitely enhanced activity as scientists pointed out to me these results demonstrated increased pathogenicity of sarsrcovs with different spike proteins in humanised mouse models and similar construction work was proposed to be done with another type of deadly pathogen the middle eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus which first flared up in jordan nine years ago after spilling over from camels and has since cropped up in 27 countries causing 858 deathsp pso yet again it seems shi probably under intense pressure from the communist regime has been manipulating not just bat viruses but the truth over her labs activities just like when she claimed a database containing 22000 virus sequences and samples was taken offline due to hacking in the pandemic when it disappeared on september 12 2019 several weeks before infections emerged in wuhan and months before global attention turned on her lab or when the name of the most closelyrelated virus to sarscov2 was changed in a key scientific paper thus masking ties to three miners who died in 2012 from a strange respiratory condition while clearing out a copper mine in southern chinap diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021072gettyimages1210084746300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarh5did scientists stifle the lableak theoryh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarspanbyspan ian birrellapdivadiv pyet she is not the only key player in this drama telling porkies anthony fauci the us infectious diseases expert and presidential adviser insisted earlier this year that his country has not ever and does not now fund gainoffunction research in the wuhan institute of virology his stance led to a furious clash in congress with senator rand paul who gleefully tweeted after emthe interceptem published its article on the papers surprise surprise fauci lied again and i was right about his agency funding novel coronavirus research at wuhanp ppaul was backed by richard ebright the biosecurity expert and professor of chemical biology at rutgers university who has long been a fierce critic of such work for which he argues that the risks of creating new diseases in laboratories vastly outweigh any potential benefits the documents make it clear that assertions by anthony fauci and the nih director francis collins that the nih did not support gainoffunction research or potential pandemic pathogen enhancement at wiv are untruthful he saidp pburied in the documents are two more intriguing details first the experimental work creating mutant chimeric coronaviruses was carried out at wivs biosafety level 2 lab and then the work analysing them in humanised mice performed at the biosafety level 3 wuhan university center for animal experiment not at the new maximum level 4 wiv lab built with french assistance the cluster of labs there incidentally includes a breeding centre that created at least 1000 types of genetically engineered animals from mice to monkeys so this means the details in the papers accord with a previous statement by shi that their coronavirus research is conducted in bsl2 or bsl3 laboratories although a level 2 lab has some say barely higher safety standards than a dental clinic and certainly few safeguards against an lethal airborne virusp pyet this is where the puzzle intensifies for six months ago david asher who led state department investigations into the origins told a washington seminar the first known cluster that were aware of of victims of what we believe to be covid were three people who fell sick at a bsl 3 lab within a week of each otherp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202106toxic1300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarh5why we should welcome the lab leak hypothesish5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarspanbyspan bret weinsteinapdivadiv pthere is a possibility it was influenza he said but im very doubtful that three people in highly protected circumstances in a level three laboratory working on coronaviruses would all get sick with influenza that put them in a hospital or in severe conditions all in the same week and it didnt have anything with the coronavirus thats highly hard to believe from that point forward it certainly seemed to have started to spread within their communityp psecond while daszak has been condemning supposed conspiracy theories and defending his friends in china with whom he has collected thousands of samples his own charity was pointing out the major risk of accidental infection faced by researchers when collecting such specimens in a project he led fieldwork involves the highest risk of exposure to sars or other covs while working in caves with high bat density overhead and the potential for fecal dust to be inhaled there is also some risk of exposure to pathogens while handling bats civets rodents or other animals their blood samples or their excretap pit is at last largely accepted that there are two plausible theories behind this public health catastrophe so perhaps these revelations have more political than scientific consequence even peter ben embarek the danish food scientist who led the dismal world health organisation study trip to wuhan earlier this year recently admitted the possibility that a field incident sparked the pandemic was a likely hypothesisp phe told a documentary there might have been human error somewhere but this could not be admitted inside chinas repressive autocracy the whole system focuses a lot on being infallible and everything must be perfect somebody could also wish to hide something who knows the engima has not been cracked but these are small steps forward in the search for the pandemic originsp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202109isthisproofofalableakcoverupappcommentsview commentsa

pthere things know origins pandemic including central issue began natural spillover animals kind laboratory incidentbut know thing debate speculative gainoffunction experiments mutant bat viruses taking place wuhan laboratoriesp pthis research carried labs maximum level biosafety increasing infectivity laboratorycreated diseases constructing chimeric coronaviruses despite strong denial practices key chinese scientists bioengineering funded united states taxpayers channelled charity run british scientist despite similar denials americas senior public health officials supported science fiction activities chinese labsp pthe details confirmed latest batch documents emerging freedom information rules unlike britain actually assist attempts break walls official obfuscationema hrefhttpstheinterceptcom20210906newdetailsemergeaboutcoronavirusresearchatchineselabthe interceptaemobtained 900 pages documents detailing research grants 2014 2019 national institutes health nih ecohealth alliance charity headed peter daszak controversial briton led efforts squash conspiracy theories possible lab incident spending years hunting viruses shi zhengli nowfamous batwoman expert wuhan institute virology wivp divdiv psome grant details emerged previously documents include original proposals project updates significantly flesh know highlight funding bodies outsourced risky gainoffunction research china threeyear period 2014 2017 banned nation newclarity kind work taking place secretive wuhan labs disclosures fuel mystery pandemic origins sparking fresh concerns scientists china west sought suppress inquiries lab leak hypothesisp pa 31m grant according documents awarded understand risk bat coronavirus emergence screening thousands samples collected nocturnal creatures included chunk funding worth 599000 wiv bear mind months ago shi director centre emerging infectious diseases angrily protested world pouring filth innocent scientist emphatically refuting carried gainoffunction work lab conducted cooperated conducting gof experiments enhance virulence viruses told theemnew york timesemp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gelttyimages94123770scalede1627662159474300x153jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarh5did new york times stifle lab leak debateh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108didthenewyorktimesstiflelableakdebaterefinnarspanbyspan ashley rindsbergapdivadiv paccording nih term gainoffunction research describes type research modifiesabiological agent sothat confers new enhanced activity agent analysis papers funds supported construction new chimeric sarsrelated coronaviruses combined spike gene genetic material showed resulting creation infect human cells mice engineered display humantype receptors cellsp pone new virus increased pathogenicity original virus new viruses increased viral load lung tissuesup toten thousandfold definitely enhanced activityas scientists pointed results demonstrated increased pathogenicity sarsrcovs different spike proteins humanised mouse models similar construction work proposed type deadly pathogen middle eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus flared jordan years ago spilling camels cropped 27 countries causing 858 deathsp pso shi probably intense pressure communist regime manipulating bat viruses truth labs activities like claimed database containing 22000 virus sequences samples taken offline hacking pandemic disappeared september 12 2019 weeks infections emerged wuhan months global attention turned lab closelyrelated virus sarscov2 changed key scientific paper masking ties miners died 2012 strange respiratory condition clearing copper southern chinap diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021072gettyimages1210084746300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarh5did scientists stifle lableak theoryh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howscientistsstifledthelableaktheoryrefinnarspanbyspan ian birrellapdivadiv pyet key player drama telling porkies anthony fauci infectious diseases expert presidential adviser insisted earlier year country fund gainoffunction research wuhan institute virology stance led furious clash congress senator rand paul gleefully tweeted afteremthe interceptempublished article papers surprise surprise fauci lied right agency funding novel coronavirus research wuhanp ppaul backed richard ebright biosecurity expert professor chemical biology rutgers university long fierce critic work argues risksof creating new diseases laboratories vastly outweigh potential benefits documents clear assertions anthony fauci nih director francis collins nih support gainoffunction research potential pandemic pathogen enhancement wiv untruthful saidp pburied documents intriguing details experimental work creating mutant chimeric coronaviruses carried wivs biosafety level 2 lab work analysing humanised mice performed biosafety level 3 wuhan university center animal experiment new maximum level 4 wiv lab built french assistance cluster labs incidentally includes breeding centre created 1000 types genetically engineered animals mice monkeys means details papers accord previous statement shi coronavirus research conducted bsl2 bsl3 laboratories level 2 lab barely higher safety standards dental clinicand certainly safeguards lethal airborne virusp pyet puzzle intensifies forsix months ago david asher led state department investigations origins told washington seminar known cluster aware victims believe covid people fell sick bsl 3 lab week otherp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202106toxic1300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarh5why welcome lab leak hypothesish5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202106whyweshouldwelcomethelableaktheoryrefinnarspanbyspan bret weinsteinapdivadiv pthere possibility influenza said im doubtful people highly protected circumstances level laboratory working coronaviruses sick influenza hospital severe conditions week didnt coronavirus thats highly hard believe point forward certainly started spread communityp psecond daszak condemning supposed conspiracy theories defending friends china collected thousands samples charity pointing major risk accidental infection faced researchers collecting specimens project led fieldwork involves highest risk exposure sars covs working caves high bat density overhead potential fecal dust inhaled risk exposure pathogens handling bats civets rodents animals blood samples excretap pit largely accepted plausible theories public health catastrophe revelations political scientific consequence evenpeter ben embarek danish food scientist led dismal world health organisation study trip wuhan earlier year recently admitted possibility field incident sparked pandemic likely hypothesisp phe told documentary human error admitted inside chinas repressive autocracy system focuses lot infallible perfect somebody wish hide knowsthe engima cracked small steps forward search pandemic originsp hrefhttpsunherdcom202109isthisproofofalableakcoverupappcommentsview commentsa

613a9b18aff2bd72642f9905

A photo from my email

pa relattachment wpatt81902 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomattachment_id81902img srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202109ztyrone1jpg alt width640 classwpimage81902 height850ap pthat is from brad h from a starbucks in nashvillep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109aphotofrommyemailhtmla photo from my emaila appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relattachment wpatt81902 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomattachment_id81902img srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202109ztyrone1jpg alt width640 classwpimage81902 height850ap pthat brad h starbucks nashvillep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109aphotofrommyemailhtmla photo emaila appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

613a9b4caff2bd72642f990d

Mexico won’t pay for this one

blockquotepanalysts said that the fact that pakistan had nearly completed construction of a metal fence running along its once unregulated 2600km border with afghanistan reflected tensions in islamabads relationship with the talibanpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent55fce3c4e0db4c4a8d2fd6168b90200e target_blankmore from the fta about growing tensions between pakistan and afghanistanp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109mexicowontpayforthisonehtmlmexico wont pay for this onea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepanalysts said fact pakistan nearly completed construction metal fence running unregulated 2600km border afghanistan reflected tensions islamabads relationship talibanpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent55fce3c4e0db4c4a8d2fd6168b90200e target_blankmore fta growing tensions pakistan afghanistanp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109mexicowontpayforthisonehtmlmexico wont pay onea appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

613a9bd2aff2bd72642f9917

My Conversation with Ed Glaeser

pi did david cutler and ed sequentially based on a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesedwardglaeserebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdavidcutlerqid1631115800sr82 target_blanktheir new coauthored booka here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesedwardglaeseranddavidcutler target_blankthe joint episodea but there is also a separate link concerning cutler  here is one excerpt from the general summaryp blockquotepthey joined tyler for a special joint episode to discuss why healthcare outcomes are so correlated with education whether the health value of google is positive or negative why hospital price transparency is so difficult to achieve how insurance coding systems reimburse sickness over health improvement why the us quit smoking before europe the best place in america to get sick the risks that come from overtreatment the possible upsides of more businesses moving out of cities whether productivity gains from remote work will remain high why the older parts of cities always seem to be more beautiful whether urban schools will ever improve why we shouldnt view rio de janeiros favelas as a failure how 19th century fights to deal with contagious diseases became a turning point for governance miamis prospects as the next tech hub what david and ed disagree on and morepblockquote pand from my exchange with edp blockquote pstrongcowen stronglets start with a simple question all this enthusiasm about a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgsystemfileschaptersc7977c7977pdf target_blank datahrefhttpswwwnberorgsystemfileschaptersc7977c7977pdfcities and agglomeration benefitsa  the pandemic comes along a lot of people transition to work from a distance and then we see big measured productivity gains what has gone on therep pstrongglaeser strongit reminds us that for many jobs in a static sense you can do this longdistance you can make things work i think many of us found this we wrote this book in eight months over the pandemic year distinctly away from each other partially because there were no distractions and all that was goodp phowever you also need to recognize the limits of longdistance living the most important of those limits is just its much less fun its much less joyful but while it seems as if its fine for static productivity it seems distinctly more problematic for people learning and for onboarding new talentp plet me just give you two types of studies one of which is we have the call center studies the father of that was the a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesnicholasbloom target_blank datahrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesnicholasbloomnick blooma a relnoopener hrefhttpsnbloompeoplestanfordedusitesgfilessbiybj4746fwfhpdf target_blank datahrefhttpsnbloompeoplestanfordedusitesgfilessbiybj4746fwfhpdfpapera which was a randomized control trial in china a a relnoopener hrefhttpsscholarharvardedueharringtonpublicationsworkingremotelyselectiontreatmentandmarketprovisionremotework target_blank datahrefhttpsscholarharvardedueharringtonpublicationsworkingremotelyselectiontreatmentandmarketprovisionremoteworkmore modern versiona is done by our students natalia emanuel and emma harrington which looks into american call centersp pboth of them find the same thing in terms of static productivity if anything it goes up but the workers who go remote are much less likely to be promoted in both studies one interpretation of this is that promotion in the call center work means that you actually are given the job of handling more difficult callsp phow would your boss know that you are good at handling difficult calls if they werent in the same room with you how would you learn how to do those difficult calls if you werent around other people so while the static productivity remains you lose the dynamic benefits of being around other peoplep psecond piece of evidence it comes from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwburningglasscomresearchprojectcovid19 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwburningglasscomresearchprojectcovid19burning glass technologies aand new hires even though microsoft tells us that its programmers were just as productive overall new hires for programmers were down 42 percent between november 2019 and november 2020 firms were clearly unwilling to take the same kind of risks of hiring new workers that they couldnt inculcate in their corporate culture or screen them properly or do any of those other thingsp peven though measured productivity did well during the pandemic there were still lots of disruptions in particular many younger workers who came of age really lost out as a result of thisp pstrongcowen strongif work from a distance goes fine in the short run whats the crosssectional prediction about where it will persist in the future is it firms facing bankruptcy firms with immediate projects now possibly startups who will then later transition to all being together in one big happy family but theyre afraid theyre going to fail before then what should we expectp pstrongglaeser strongi think we should expect young workers to be more likely to be brought together young firms as well because youre very much at this learning creative phase i think the optimal workfromhome strategy is a couple of partners who are in an accounting practice and have decided they know each other perfectly well and are delighted to zoom it in from wherever they arep pi think unquestionably working from home will remain a part of the economy it may well be many workers end up spending 20 percent of their time working from home even if theyre part of a generally fulltime job but for younger workers for firms that are just getting started i think being live is likely to continue being a major part of the work environmentp pit also depends a lot on what your home environment is like if youre like us  if you are a middleaged professor whos likely to have a comfortable home office and maybe even not having kids at home anymore certainly not kids who are crying all the time at home anymore  working at home is a lot more pleasant than if youre a 23yearold and live in a studio apartment in somerville or new york or londonp blockquote precommendedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myconversationwithedglaeserhtmlmy conversation with ed glaesera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pi david cutler ed sequentially based relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesedwardglaeserebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdavidcutlerqid1631115800sr82 target_blanktheir new coauthored booka relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesedwardglaeseranddavidcutler target_blankthe joint episodea separate link concerning cutler excerpt general summaryp blockquotepthey joined tyler special joint episode discuss healthcare outcomes correlated education health value google positive negative hospital price transparency difficult achieve insurance coding systems reimburse sickness health improvement quit smoking europe best place america sick risks come overtreatment possible upsides businesses moving cities productivity gains remote work remain high older parts cities beautiful urban schools improve shouldnt view rio de janeiros favelas failure 19th century fights deal contagious diseases turning point governance miamis prospects tech hub david ed disagree morepblockquote pand exchange edp blockquote pstrongcowenstronglets start simple question enthusiasm abouta relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgsystemfileschaptersc7977c7977pdf target_blank datahrefhttpswwwnberorgsystemfileschaptersc7977c7977pdfcities agglomeration benefitsathe pandemic comes lot people transition work distance big measured productivity gains gone therep pstrongglaeserstrongit reminds jobs static sense longdistance things work think found wrote book months pandemic year distinctly away partially distractions goodp phowever need recognize limits longdistance living important limits fun joyful fine static productivity distinctly problematic people learning onboarding new talentp plet types studies center studies father thea relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesnicholasbloom target_blank datahrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesnicholasbloomnick bloomaa relnoopener hrefhttpsnbloompeoplestanfordedusitesgfilessbiybj4746fwfhpdf target_blank datahrefhttpsnbloompeoplestanfordedusitesgfilessbiybj4746fwfhpdfpapera randomized control trial china aa relnoopener hrefhttpsscholarharvardedueharringtonpublicationsworkingremotelyselectiontreatmentandmarketprovisionremotework target_blank datahrefhttpsscholarharvardedueharringtonpublicationsworkingremotelyselectiontreatmentandmarketprovisionremoteworkmore modern versionais students natalia emanuel emma harrington looks american centersp pboth find thing terms static productivity goes workers remote likely promoted studies interpretation promotion center work means actually given job handling difficult callsp phow boss know good handling difficult calls werent room learn difficult calls werent people static productivity remains lose dynamic benefits peoplep psecond piece evidence comes froma relnoopener hrefhttpswwwburningglasscomresearchprojectcovid19 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwburningglasscomresearchprojectcovid19burning glass technologiesaand new hires microsoft tells programmers productive overall new hires programmers 42 percent november 2019 november 2020 firms clearly unwilling kind risks hiring new workers couldnt inculcate corporate culture screen properly thingsp peven measured productivity pandemic lots disruptions particular younger workers came age lost result thisp pstrongcowenstrongif work distance goes fine short run whats crosssectional prediction persist future firms facing bankruptcy firms immediate projects possibly startups later transition big happy family theyre afraid theyre going fail expectp pstrongglaeserstrongi think expect young workers likely brought young firms youre learning creative phase think optimal workfromhome strategy couple partners accounting practice decided know perfectly delighted zoom arep pi think unquestionably working home remain economy workers end spending 20 percent time working home theyre generally fulltime job younger workers firms getting started think live likely continue major work environmentp pit depends lot home environment like youre like usif middleaged professor whos likely comfortable home office maybe having kids home anymore certainly kids crying time home anymoreworking home lot pleasant youre 23yearold live studio apartment somerville new york londonp blockquote precommendedp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myconversationwithedglaeserhtmlmy conversation ed glaesera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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My Conversation with David Cutler

pi did cutler and ed glaeser sequentially based on a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesedwardglaeserebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdavidcutlerqid1631115800sr82 target_blanktheir new coauthored booka here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesedwardglaeseranddavidcutler target_blankthe joint episodea but i will create another link concerning glazer  here is one excerpt from the general summaryp blockquotepthey joined tyler for a special joint episode to discuss why healthcare outcomes are so correlated with education whether the health value of google is positive or negative why hospital price transparency is so difficult to achieve how insurance coding systems reimburse sickness over health improvement why the us quit smoking before europe the best place in america to get sick the risks that come from overtreatment the possible upsides of more businesses moving out of cities whether productivity gains from remote work will remain high why the older parts of cities always seem to be more beautiful whether urban schools will ever improve why we shouldnt view rio de janeiros favelas as a failure how 19th century fights to deal with contagious diseases became a turning point for governance miamis prospects as the next tech hub what david and ed disagree on and morepblockquote pand from davidp blockquote pstrongcowen strongbut even if we adjust for that education seems to matter a lot its also puzzling to me  in your own work it matters more at younger ages you would think the returns are cumulative it would really pay off when youre 67 because youve invested in a stock portfolio for decades but it matters most when youre young whats your best micro account of thatp pstrongcutler strongone of the things thats super interesting is that for example people who live in cities  where there are more bettereducated people  smoke less even conditional on your own education the same thing is true about age and so onp pi think its partly that cities and areas are run by uppermiddleclass folks often for example the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhealthandenvironmentorgenvironmentalhealthenvironmentalriskssocioeconomicenvironment target_blank datahrefhttpswwwhealthandenvironmentorgenvironmentalhealthenvironmentalriskssocioeconomicenvironmentenvironmenta is set up in a way thats more conducive to health when you have more uppermiddleincome people its much more difficult to smoke there are healthier behaviors in general there are parks and things like that i think part of it is just that society is shaped by higherincome higherses people and that can be good for everyone who lives around those areasp pstrongcowen strongto the extent education makes you healthier by lowering your stress and raising your relative status  which is a possible hypothesis  what are the policy implications of that what should we dop pstrongcutler strongpart of what were learning over time is that social insurance programs are actually having a bigger and more sustained effect on health than we had thought they did for example weve always thought of medicare and medicaid as being the primary social insurance programs that affect health but then theres research that the wic program  women infants and children  affects health that food stamp programs affect health that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbenefitsgovbenefit613 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwbenefitsgovbenefit613tanf benefitsa affect health that housing policies can affect healthp pstrongcowen strongand you think thats through lowering stress as one mechanismp blockquote precommendedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myconversationwithdavidcutlerhtmlmy conversation with david cutlera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pi cutler ed glaeser sequentially based relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesedwardglaeserebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdavidcutlerqid1631115800sr82 target_blanktheir new coauthored booka relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesedwardglaeseranddavidcutler target_blankthe joint episodea create link concerning glazer excerpt general summaryp blockquotepthey joined tyler special joint episode discuss healthcare outcomes correlated education health value google positive negative hospital price transparency difficult achieve insurance coding systems reimburse sickness health improvement quit smoking europe best place america sick risks come overtreatment possible upsides businesses moving cities productivity gains remote work remain high older parts cities beautiful urban schools improve shouldnt view rio de janeiros favelas failure 19th century fights deal contagious diseases turning point governance miamis prospects tech hub david ed disagree morepblockquote pand davidp blockquote pstrongcowenstrongbut adjust education matter lot puzzling mein work matters younger ages think returns cumulative pay youre 67 youve invested stock portfolio decades matters youre young whats best micro account thatp pstrongcutlerstrongone things thats super interesting example people live citieswhere bettereducated peoplesmoke conditional education thing true age onp pi think partly cities areas run uppermiddleclass folks example thea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhealthandenvironmentorgenvironmentalhealthenvironmentalriskssocioeconomicenvironment target_blank datahrefhttpswwwhealthandenvironmentorgenvironmentalhealthenvironmentalriskssocioeconomicenvironmentenvironmentais set way thats conducive health uppermiddleincome people difficult smoke healthier behaviors general parks things like think society shaped higherincome higherses people good lives areasp pstrongcowenstrongto extent education makes healthier lowering stress raising relative statuswhich possible hypothesiswhat policy implications dop pstrongcutlerstrongpart learning time social insurance programs actually having bigger sustained effect health thought example weve thought medicare medicaid primary social insurance programs affect health theres research wic programwomen infants childrenaffects health food stamp programs affect health thata relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbenefitsgovbenefit613 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwbenefitsgovbenefit613tanf benefitsaaffect health housing policies affect healthp pstrongcowenstrongand think thats lowering stress mechanismp blockquote precommendedp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myconversationwithdavidcutlerhtmlmy conversation david cutlera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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How bin Laden’s prophecies came true

pin joe bidens a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210831remarksbypresidentbidenontheendofthewarinafghanistan target_blankkeynote speecha following the bloody debacle at kabul airport the american president presented a sober vision of the countrys new foreign policy realities that both liberals and conservatives seem loath to accept that the age of remoulding the world in americas image is over that bloody and failing land wars in the depths of asia were a luxury america could no longer afford and that all along the creeping everexpanding and evercostlier mission had been a gigantic trapp pas biden observed entirely correctly theres nothing china or russia would rather have would want more in this competition than the united states to be bogged down another decade in afghanistan instead he asserted this decision about afghanistan is not just about afghanistan its about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries whatever the howls of outrage from americas prestige opinion pages the age of liberal imperialism is over the time of nakedly realist great power competition has begunp pyet bidens worldview so outrageous for an american commentariat as recklessly jingoistic as emjohn bullem magazine in its edwardian prime is supported by analysis from an unexpected quarter that of the architect himself of both americas war on terror and of the great slaughter in new york that precipitated it osama bin ladenp divdiv ppiecing together the themes of bin ladens a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwversobookscombooks32messagestotheworld target_blankvarious statements to the outside worlda in the years immediately before and after 911 a specific concrete plan emerges by which the slave of god as the billionaire son of a yemenborn construction magnate styled himself would accelerate the collapse of the american empire through embroiling it in long unwinnable and expensive ground wars in the islamic world this plan bin laden claimed had formulated itself through his experience of the jihad against the soviets in afghanistan whose ignominious withdrawal from the country had shortly preceded their imperial collapse events in which he himself had played a relatively undistinguished partp pin an interview conducted a month and a half after 911 bin laden observed thatp blockquotepemthe soviet empire has become with gods grace a figment of the imagination today there is no more soviet empire it split into smaller states and only russia is left so we believe that the defeat of america is something achievable with the permission of god and it is easier for us with the permission of god than the defeat of the soviet empire previouslyempblockquote pwhy would it be easier asked the journalist emal jazeeraems thenstar reporter taysir alluni incredulously because bin laden replied we have already fought them like our brothers who have engaged in battle with the americans as in somalia we have not yet found a significant force of note there is a great aura about america which it uses to scare people before it engages in battlep pbut he claimed the brief and inglorious american episode in somalia showed that american power could not stretch to imposing order on insurgent forces far from home america left dragging behind it tails of humiliation defeat and loss without looking back it retreated unexpectedly and it forgot all that great media enthusiasm about the new world order and how it was the master of that order and could do whatever it pleasedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages5248355741scalede1630666044956300x173jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarh5we need to talk about 911h5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanbyspan lionel shriverapdivadiv pthis was not the first time bin laden had used the example of somalia to persuade sceptics of the logic underlying his plan in his first interview with emaljazeeraem three years earlier after alqaedas twin bombings of the american embassies in kenya and tanzania which had killed more than 200 people bin laden noted thatp blockquotepemwe believe that america is much weaker than russia and we have learned from our brothers who fought in the jihad in somalia of the incredible weakness and cowardice of the american soldier not even eighty of them had been killed and they fled in total darkness in the middle of the night unable to see a thingempblockquote peven before then in a 1997 interview with emcnnem journalist peter arnett bin laden noted that in somalia after a little resistance the american troops left after achieving nothing they left after claiming that they were the largest power on earth they left after some resistance from powerless poor unarmed people whose only weapon is the belief in god almighty and who do not fear the fabricated american media liesp pindeed he added claiming dubiously that veterans of the afghan jihad had fought against the americans in somalia we learned from those who fought there that they were surprised to see the low spiritual morale of the american fighters in comparison with the experience they had with the russian fighters the americans ran away from those fighters who fought and killed them while the latter stayedp pin choosing afghanistan as the location for the war with the united states which would he believed bring about its decline bin laden embroiled the afghan people in a conflict not of their choosing doubling the length of their civil war by another twenty years and inflating its butchers bill by 46000 civilian deaths alone and yet with the easy confidence of a billionaire he told afghans in a video message that their sacrifice was worth it and that whoever doubts this should learn from the russians how the blessed emjihad emdestroyed their myth because bin laden claimed the struggle is both financial and physical so that even as the taliban reeled under american bombing it is possible to strike the economic base that is the foundation of the military base so when their economy is depleted they will be too busy with each other to be able to enslave poor peoplesp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages11615101300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarh5the theatre of terrorh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarspanbyspan simon cotteeapdivadiv pthis emphasis on the war on terror as a giant entrapping money pit for the american empire runs throughout bin ladens messages in his 2002 a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2002nov24theobserver target_blankemletter to the american peopleema bin laden taunted the inhabitants of the worst civilisation witnessed by the history of mankind that it was easy for us to provoke this administration and lure it into perdition all we had to do was send two emmujahidin emto the far east to raise up a rag on which alqaeda was written and the generals came running this inflicted human financial and political losses on america without them even achieving anything worth mentioning apart from providing business for their private corporationsp pindeed in his critique of americas conversion of the war on terror into a vast and lucrative wealthcreation scheme for the militaryindustrial complex bin laden either echoes or prefigures the identical critiques of american antiinterventionists of both left and right from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwforeignaffairscomarticles20190624endingamericasendlesswar target_blankbernie sandersa to trumps a relnoopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhilltvrising407398trumpslamsbushforworstsinglemistakeinushistory target_blankprevious antiinterventionist incarnationap pas bin laden boasted the massive borrowing needed to finance the wars truly shows that alqaeda has made gains but on the other hand it also shows that the bush administration has likewise profited anyone seeing the enormity of the contracts won by dubious large corporations like halliburton and others connected to bush and his administration can be certain of that but the reality is that it is you the american people and your economy who are losing for we are continuing to make america bleed to the point of bankruptcy by gods will he assertedp pyet it was only the presence of americas thenrepublican government surely a gift from god which enabled this situation the white house leadership which is so keen to open up war fronts for its various corporations whether in the field of arms oil or construction has also contributed to these remarkable results for alqaeda indeed he mocked to some analysts and diplomats it seems as if we and the white house are on the same team shooting at the united statess own goal despite our different intentionsp pno wonder then that biden has similarly invoked the vast cost of the wars two trillion dollars in his estimate in bringing about their end but even this colossal sum may be an understatement a relnoopener hrefhttpsfortunecom20210901costofwarinafghanistaniraqus target_blankas emfortuneem noted recentlya this figure does not include the interest payments on the loans taken out to prosecute the war nor the benefits paid to the survivors of the more than 7000 american dead nor does it include perhaps the greatest single expense the medical bills for the wars more than 50000 wounded veterans which may alone total 23 trillion by 2050p pall told claims emfortuneem a relnoopener hrefhttpswatsonbrowneducostsofwar target_blankciting brown universitys emcosts of warem projecta the real bill of the war on terror including the lesser engagements in yemen and syria may end up closer to eight trillion dollars the effect of which american taxpayers have not yet faced as almost the entire cost of the afghan and iraq wars has come from borrowed money much of which has yet to be repaidp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages1860899300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarh5a french lesson for blair and bushh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarspanbyspan anneelisabeth moutetapdivadiv pamong americas creditors is of course china which made use of the wests overriding distraction with winning over mountain village chieftains in the wilds of afghanistan with trying and failing to install a functioning liberal democracy in iraq and then with destroying the islamic state caliphate the invasion spawned to accelerate its rise to global industrial dominance it is surely no accident that only now that the war on terror is winding down competition with china has finally intruded into the american foreign policy consciousness despite being mocked as eccentric or even racist when expressed by thenpresidential candidate trump as the empires overriding challengep peven in the new cold war over infrastructure and state capacity perhaps the battleground on which wavering nations will be competed for the money wasted on the failed wars in asia could as the a relnoopener hrefhttpsdocumentcloudadobecomlinkreviewuriurnaaidscdsus49984634aee940f28dc91f49ac31c393 target_blankinstitute of policy studies thinktank observesa have solved multiple problems in the us likea relnoopener hrefhttpsfredstlouisfedorgseriessloas target_blank erasing all student debt for 17 trilliona [or] decarbonizing the entire electricity grida hrefhttpswwwwoodmaccomnewsfeaturedeepdecarbonisationthemultitrilliondollarquestion for 45 trillionauup pbut we are where we are the twenty failed years of war debt and distraction may not yet have led to americas collapse in the manner bin laden eagerly anticipated but it certainly set the thensole superpower at a disadvantage in preparing for the coming competition over its right to global hegemony as biden noted a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210708remarksbypresidentbidenonthedrawdownofusforcesinafghanistan target_blankin his speech announcing the withdrawala abandoning the afghan adventure was necessary because we need to focus on shoring up americas core strengths to meet the strategic competition with china and other nations that is really going to determine our future returning to this theme in his speech justifying the chaotic scenes in kabul he reiterated that the world is changing were engaged in a serious competition with china we have to shore up americas competitiveness to meet these new challenges in the competition for the 21st century and as we turn the page on the foreign policy that has guided our nation the last two decades weve got to learn from our mistakesp pbut can america do so their foreign policy establishment certainly seems averse to learning any lessons from two decades of failure even if ordinary voters overwhelmingly support bidens diminution of americas historical mission it is not obvious that a gop establishment responsible for the manifold strategic disasters of the twentyyear war can legitimately criticise bidens decision to end it especially not when its last president rode to power partly on the same platformp pyet even a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikirobert_j_o27neill target_blankbin ladens purported killera a seal operativeturned conservative talkshow celebrity and antimasking activist maintains his brand by asserting that it baffles me right now that were even considering negotiating with the taliban why dont we just go kill them to the applause of american conservatives who applauded trumps antiinterventionism just as passionately when the random spinning wheel of americas culture war was calibrated to reward different incentivesp pfor alqaeda itself americas endless internal political conflict its deepest malaise is nothing but a cause for crowing celebration a relnoopener hrefhttpslucaswebbersubstackcompalqaedaurgesattacksagainstthe target_blankin a recent propaganda videoa emamerica burnsem an adaptation of a previous magazine article alqaeda surveyed the american political scene crowing at the internal divisions of a decaying polity on the verge of collapse in alqaedas framing america is teetering on the edge of civil war its vast security apparatus has increasingly been directed onto american voters themselves as the combination of crude populism and the reactive collusion between the security state and the liberal press that controls the american media industry raised the countrys tensions to boiling point as a consequence americas usurybased economy is merely an inflated balloon ready to implode serving only the corporate robber barons and communist china indeed they boast it was allahs wisdom that the fourth plane whose downing was ordered by dick cheney on the 11th of september did not reach its target and americans were left to destroy the edifice of their democracy with their own handsp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages77451116scaled1300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanmore from this seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarh5how the neocons got away with ith5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanbyspan razib khanapdivadiv pso what can be said of americas standing twenty years after 911 strategically the hegemon appears a strange oxymoron a global military empire which cannot win wars it a relnoopener hrefhttpstheinterceptcom20210901waronterrordeathscost target_blankcan kill hundreds of thousands of peoplea and cause untold destruction generally with the very best and noblest of intentions but is seemingly unable to deploy the overwhelming military force on which its global position depends in a way that advances its interests given its military caste was unable even to manage a bloodless withdrawal from an airfield it controlled under a timetable it itself set who can bet confidently that they would emerge the victor from a struggle against a competent and prepared nearpeer adversary like chinap ponly a reckless gambler or the british government would be happy with such a highstakes throw of the dice politically americas divisions are a cautionary tale rather than an example to the world it still claims to lead if the us still retains its status as the global standardbearer for liberal democracy then liberal democracy is not as enticing a prospect as it once appearedp pyet americas withdrawal from afghanistan like the withdrawal from iraq which after a decent interval to avoid the appearance of being pushed out by the iranianbacked militias the war empowered seems certain to follow does not herald the end of american power it was the wars themselves that were the trap as bin laden made clear time and time again and their ending is a necessary moment of rebalancing to focus on the far greater challenge ahead in this we can say biden was the president the american empire needed even if his supporters didnt realise that was what they were getting a cautious realist brought to power by a liberalimperialist establishment and a broadly competent manager of retrenchment and objective declinep pit is therefore wrong to claim a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthenationalnewscomopinioncomment20210814ifkabulfallsitwillbeamericassuezmoment target_blankas tom tugendhat and others havea that the withdrawal from afghanistan is americas suez moment not least because suez was a military victory for britain it would be more apt to view it as americas singapore a relnoopener hrefhttpsukdefencejournalorgukthefallofsingaporeanavoidablecatastrophe target_blanka failure of planning and overconfidencea which heralded the collapse of imperial power in vast swathes of asia yet a moral and psychological defeat more than a terminal strategic one the suez moment if it comes still lies over the horizonp pthe lustre of the american empire has been tarnished but the core underlying structure may hold good for decades yet if america has lost its claims to global leadership it has also lost its desire to press them in abandoning americas failing wars to a relnoopener hrefhttpssmartassetcomfinancialadvisorbideninfrastructureplan target_blankfocus on its decaying infrastructurea and the great power competition that will now define its future biden has perhaps twenty years after the carnage of 911 finally exorcised bin ladens ghostp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howbinladensprophesiescametrueappcommentsview commentsa

pin joe bidens relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210831remarksbypresidentbidenontheendofthewarinafghanistan target_blankkeynote speecha following bloody debacle kabul airport american president presented sober vision countrys new foreign policy realities liberals conservatives loath accept age remoulding world americas image bloody failing land wars depths asia luxury america longer afford creeping everexpanding evercostlier mission gigantic trapp pas biden observed entirely correctly theres china russia want competition united states bogged decade afghanistan instead asserted decision afghanistan afghanistan ending era major military operations remake countrieswhatever howls outrage americas prestige opinion pages age liberal imperialism time nakedly realist great power competition begunp pyet bidens worldview outrageous american commentariat recklessly jingoistic emjohn bullem magazine edwardian prime supported analysis unexpected quarter architect americas war terror great slaughter new york precipitated osama bin ladenp divdiv ppiecing themes bin ladens relnoopener hrefhttpswwwversobookscombooks32messagestotheworld target_blankvarious statements outside worlda years immediately 911 specific concrete plan emerges slave god billionaire son yemenborn construction magnate styled accelerate collapse american empire embroiling long unwinnable expensive ground wars islamic world plan bin laden claimed formulated experience jihad soviets afghanistan ignominious withdrawal country shortly preceded imperial collapse events played relatively undistinguished partp pin interview conducted month half 911 bin laden observed thatp blockquotepemthe soviet empire gods grace figment imagination today soviet empire split smaller states russia left believe defeat america achievable permission god easier permission god defeat soviet empire previouslyempblockquote pwhy easier asked journalist emal jazeeraems thenstar reporter taysir alluni incredulously bin laden replied fought like brothers engaged battle americans somalia found significant force note great aura america uses scare people engages battlep pbut claimed brief inglorious american episode somalia showed american power stretch imposing order insurgent forces far homeamerica left dragging tails humiliation defeat loss looking retreated unexpectedly forgot great media enthusiasm new world order master order pleasedp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages5248355741scalede1630666044956300x173jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarh5we need talk 911h5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109weneedtotalkabout911refinnarspanbyspan lionel shriverapdivadiv pthis time bin laden example somalia persuade sceptics logic underlying plan interview emaljazeeraem years earlier alqaedas twin bombings american embassies kenya tanzania killed 200 people bin laden noted thatp blockquotepemwe believe america weaker russia learned brothers fought jihad somalia incredible weakness cowardice american soldier eighty killed fled total darkness middle night unable thingempblockquote peven 1997 interview emcnnem journalist peter arnett bin laden noted somalia little resistance american troops left achieving left claiming largest power earth left resistance powerless poor unarmed people weapon belief god almighty fear fabricated american media liesp pindeed added claiming dubiously veterans afghan jihad fought americans somalia learned fought surprised low spiritual morale american fighters comparison experience russian fighters americans ran away fighters fought killed stayedp pin choosing afghanistan location war united states believed bring decline bin laden embroiled afghan people conflict choosing doubling length civil war years inflating butchers bill 46000 civilian deaths easy confidence billionaire told afghans video message sacrifice worth doubts learn russians blessed emjihad emdestroyed myth bin laden claimed struggle financial physical taliban reeled american bombing possible strike economic base foundation military base economy depleted busy able enslave poor peoplesp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages11615101300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarh5the theatre terrorh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109thetheatreofterrorrefinnarspanbyspan simon cotteeapdivadiv pthis emphasis war terror giant entrapping money pit american empire runs bin ladens messages 2002 relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2002nov24theobserver target_blankemletter american peopleema bin laden taunted inhabitants worst civilisation witnessed history mankind easy provoke administration lure perdition send emmujahidin emto far east raise rag alqaeda written generals came running inflicted human financial political losses america achieving worth mentioning apart providing business private corporationsp pindeed critique americas conversion war terror vast lucrative wealthcreation scheme militaryindustrial complex bin laden echoes prefigures identical critiques american antiinterventionists left right relnoopener hrefhttpswwwforeignaffairscomarticles20190624endingamericasendlesswar target_blankbernie sandersa trumps relnoopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhilltvrising407398trumpslamsbushforworstsinglemistakeinushistory target_blankprevious antiinterventionist incarnationap pas bin laden boasted massive borrowing needed finance wars truly shows alqaeda gains hand shows bush administration likewise profited seeing enormity contracts won dubious large corporations like halliburton connected bush administration certain reality american people economy losing continuing america bleed point bankruptcy gods assertedp pyet presence ofamericas thenrepublican government surely gift god enabled situation white house leadership keen open war fronts corporations field arms oil construction contributed remarkable results alqaeda mocked analysts diplomats white house team shooting united statess goal despite different intentionsp pno wonder biden similarly invoked vast cost wars trillion dollars estimate bringing end colossal sum understatement relnoopener hrefhttpsfortunecom20210901costofwarinafghanistaniraqus target_blankas emfortuneem noted recentlya figure include interest payments loans taken prosecute war benefits paid survivors 7000 american dead include greatest single expense medical bills wars 50000 wounded veterans total 23 trillion 2050p pall told claims emfortuneem relnoopener hrefhttpswatsonbrowneducostsofwar target_blankciting brown universitys emcosts warem projecta real bill war terror including lesser engagements yemen syria end closer trillion dollars effect american taxpayers faced entire cost afghan iraq wars come borrowed money repaidp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages1860899300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarh5a french lesson blair bushh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109afrenchlessonforblairandbushrefinnarspanbyspan anneelisabeth moutetapdivadiv pamong americas creditors course china use wests overriding distraction winning mountain village chieftains wilds afghanistan trying failing install functioning liberal democracy iraq destroying islamic state caliphate invasion spawned accelerate rise global industrial dominance surely accident war terror winding competition china finally intruded american foreign policy consciousness despite mocked eccentric racist expressed thenpresidential candidate trump empires overriding challengep peven new cold war infrastructure state capacity battleground wavering nations competed money wasted failed wars asia relnoopener hrefhttpsdocumentcloudadobecomlinkreviewuriurnaaidscdsus49984634aee940f28dc91f49ac31c393 target_blankinstitute policy studies thinktank observesa solved multiple problems likea relnoopener hrefhttpsfredstlouisfedorgseriessloas target_blank erasing student debt 17 trilliona [or]decarbonizing entire electricity grida hrefhttpswwwwoodmaccomnewsfeaturedeepdecarbonisationthemultitrilliondollarquestion 45 trillionauup pbut failed years war debt distraction led americas collapse manner bin laden eagerly anticipated certainly set thensole superpower disadvantage preparing coming competition right global hegemony biden noted relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhitehousegovbriefingroomspeechesremarks20210708remarksbypresidentbidenonthedrawdownofusforcesinafghanistan target_blankin speech announcing withdrawala abandoning afghan adventure necessary need focus shoring americas core strengths meet strategic competition china nations going determine future returning theme speech justifying chaotic scenes kabul reiterated world changing engaged competition china shore americas competitiveness meet new challenges competition 21st century turn page foreign policy guided nation decades weve got learn mistakesp pbut america foreign policy establishment certainly averse learning lessons decades failure ordinary voters overwhelmingly support bidens diminution americas historical mission obvious gop establishment responsible manifold strategic disasters twentyyear war legitimately criticise bidens decision end especially president rode power partly platformp pyet relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikirobert_j_o27neill target_blankbin ladens purported killera seal operativeturned conservative talkshow celebrity antimasking activist maintains brand asserting baffles right considering negotiating taliban dont kill applause american conservatives applauded trumps antiinterventionism passionately random spinning wheel americas culture war calibrated reward different incentivesp pfor alqaeda americas endless internal political conflict deepest malaise cause crowing celebration relnoopener hrefhttpslucaswebbersubstackcompalqaedaurgesattacksagainstthe target_blankin recent propaganda videoa emamerica burnsem adaptation previous magazine article alqaeda surveyed american political scene crowing internal divisions decaying polity verge collapse alqaedas framing america teetering edge civil war itsvast security apparatus increasingly directed american voters combination crude populism reactive collusion security state liberal press controls american media industry raised countrys tensions boiling point consequence americas usurybased economy merely inflated balloon ready implode serving corporate robber barons communist china boast allahs wisdom fourth plane downing ordered dick cheney 11th september reach target americans left destroy edifice democracy handsp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202109gettyimages77451116scaled1300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanmore seriesspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarh5how neocons got away ith5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howtheneoconsgotawaywithitrefinnarspanbyspan razib khanapdivadiv pso said americas standing years 911 strategically hegemon appears strange oxymoron global military empire win wars relnoopener hrefhttpstheinterceptcom20210901waronterrordeathscost target_blankcan kill hundreds thousands peoplea cause untold destruction generally best noblest intentions seemingly unable deploy overwhelming military force global position depends way advances interests given military caste unable manage bloodless withdrawal airfield controlled timetable set bet confidently emerge victor struggle competent prepared nearpeer adversary like chinap ponly reckless gambler british government happy highstakes throw dice politically americas divisions cautionary tale example world claims lead retains status global standardbearer liberal democracy liberal democracy enticing prospect appearedp pyet americas withdrawal afghanistan like withdrawal iraq decent interval avoid appearance pushed iranianbacked militias war empowered certain follow herald end american power wars trap bin laden clear time time ending necessary moment rebalancing focus far greater challenge ahead biden president american empire needed supporters didnt realise getting cautious realist brought power liberalimperialist establishment broadly competent manager retrenchment objective declinep pit wrong claim relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthenationalnewscomopinioncomment20210814ifkabulfallsitwillbeamericassuezmoment target_blankas tom tugendhat havea withdrawal afghanistan americas suez moment suez military victory britain apt view americas singapore relnoopener hrefhttpsukdefencejournalorgukthefallofsingaporeanavoidablecatastrophe target_blanka failure planning overconfidencea heralded collapse imperial power vast swathes asia moral psychological defeat terminal strategic suez moment comes lies horizonp pthe lustre american empire tarnished core underlying structure hold good decades america lost claims global leadership lost desire press abandoning americas failing wars relnoopener hrefhttpssmartassetcomfinancialadvisorbideninfrastructureplan target_blankfocus decaying infrastructurea great power competition define future biden years carnage 911 finally exorcised bin ladens ghostp hrefhttpsunherdcom202109howbinladensprophesiescametrueappcommentsview commentsa

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Secret Danish markets in everything

blockquotepdenmark has paid the uk an undisclosed sum to accept 23 afghan refugees who worked as interpreters for the danish state for eight yearsp paccording to a a hrefhttpswwwsvdsedanmarkbetaladebritternaforatttaemottolkarreporta by swedish broadsheeti svenska dagbladeti the interpreters were granted a residence permit in the uk after twelve of them had their visa applications to denmark rejected and eleven wanted to travel to the uk themselvesp peven though the interpreters were technically employed by the british military they worked for the danes wearing danish uniform and received a danish salaryp pthe amount paid for in secret by the danish state has been calculated according to what it would cost the british to evacuate the interpreters integrate them into society and pay social costs for five years the payment has been confirmed by the danish ministry of defence to svdpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcomthepostdenmarkispayingtheuktotaketheirafghanrefugees target_blankthe full storyap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109secretdanishmarketsineverythinghtmlsecret danish markets in everythinga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepdenmark paid uk undisclosed sum accept 23 afghan refugees worked interpreters danish state yearsp paccording aa hrefhttpswwwsvdsedanmarkbetaladebritternaforatttaemottolkarreportaby swedish broadsheetisvenska dagbladeti interpreters granted residence permit uk visa applications denmark rejected wanted travel uk themselvesp peven interpreters technically employed british military worked danes wearing danish uniform received danish salaryp pthe paid secret danish state calculated according cost british evacuate interpreters integrate society pay social costs years payment confirmed danish ministry defence svdpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcomthepostdenmarkispayingtheuktotaketheirafghanrefugees target_blankthe storyap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109secretdanishmarketsineverythinghtmlsecret danish markets everythinga appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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A new hurdle for vaccine development

blockquotepunless countries that have purchased vaccine doses and companies that have already brought vaccines into use agree to find ways to resolve the problem manufacturers that trail the first wave of producers may not be able to prove that their vaccines work not only will that slow efforts to vaccinate the planet it will block development of nextgeneration vaccines and it will stymie efforts to answer key public health questions like whether boosting with a different vaccine would generate better protection or whether giving smaller  a hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20210708stretchexistingcovidvaccinesexpertsdividedfractionala doses could protect more people more quicklyp pthe problem stems in part from the fact that at this point in the pandemic it isnt considered ethical to test new vaccines against placebos instead they would have to be tested against one of the existing shots but getting ones hands on licensed or authorized vaccines for study purposes is nigh on impossible all available doses have been snapped up by countries keen to vaccinate as many of their citizens as possiblep pcontracts for those doses contain rigid stipulations about how the vaccines can be deployed the doses often have to be used in the country that made the purchase when the biden administration wanted to share astrazeneca doses with canada and mexico in march a relnoopener hrefhttpsapnewscomarticlebidenplanstosendastrazenecavaccinecanadamexico5776131b02e3350e5613aa2aaeac8ee7 target_blankit loaned the dosesa to get around the restrictions contracts also often stipulate that doses that have been purchased must be used for outbreak control not for research purposes lurie saidpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20210907cepiwarnsofmajorhurdletodevelopingnewcovid19vaccinesboosters target_blankthe full story by helen branswella  obviously there is a marketoriented solution here if only we care enough to implement itp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109anewhurdleforvaccinedevelopmenthtmla new hurdle for vaccine developmenta appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepunless countries purchased vaccine doses companies brought vaccines use agree find ways resolve problem manufacturers trail wave producers able prove vaccines work slow efforts vaccinate planet block development nextgeneration vaccines stymie efforts answer key public health questions like boosting different vaccine generate better protection giving smaller hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20210708stretchexistingcovidvaccinesexpertsdividedfractionala doses protect people quicklyp pthe problem stems fact point pandemic isnt considered ethical test new vaccines placebos instead tested existing shots getting ones hands licensed authorized vaccines study purposes nigh impossible available doses snapped countries keen vaccinate citizens possiblep pcontracts doses contain rigid stipulations vaccines deployed doses country purchase biden administration wanted share astrazeneca doses canada mexico marcha relnoopener hrefhttpsapnewscomarticlebidenplanstosendastrazenecavaccinecanadamexico5776131b02e3350e5613aa2aaeac8ee7 target_blankit loaned dosesato restrictions contracts stipulate doses purchased outbreak control research purposes lurie saidpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20210907cepiwarnsofmajorhurdletodevelopingnewcovid19vaccinesboosters target_blankthe story helen branswella obviously marketoriented solution care implement itp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109anewhurdleforvaccinedevelopmenthtmla new hurdle vaccine developmenta appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Emergent Ventures winners, sixteenth cohort

pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomphoebexyaolangen target_blankphoebe yaoa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlinkedincominphoebexyao target_blankfounder and ceo of paretoa a human api delivering the business functions startups desperately need  she was born in china formerly of stanford and a relnoopener hrefhttpsphoebeyaocom target_blanka former classical violista  by my mistake i left her off of a previous cohort list apologiesp pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbeyondagingorg target_blankbeyondaginga a new group to support longevity researchp pa relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightcom target_blanksam enrighta for writing blogging and general career development resume a relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightfileswordpresscom202106samenrightcvpdf target_blankherea  from ireland currently studying in scotlandp pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzenahitzref_srctwsrc5egoogle7ctwcamp5eserp7ctwgr5eauthor target_blankzena hitza st johns college to build a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzenahitzstatus1290383391406383105 target_blankthe catherine projecta to revitalize the study of the classicsp pa relnoopener hrefhttpgleechorg target_blankgavin leecha lives in bristol he is from scotland getting a phd in ai  general career support he is interested in personal experimentation to ameliorate any chronic illness reinforcement learning as microscope on goodharts law weaponised philosophy for donors noncollege routes to impactp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsvalmikraocom target_blankvalmik raoa 17 years old ontario he is building a program to better manage defecation in nigeriap pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzoharatkins target_blankrabbi zohar atkinsa new york city to pursue a career as a public intellectual  here is a relnoopener hrefhttpetzhasadehsubstackcom target_blankone substacka here is a relnoopener hrefhttpwhatiscalledthinkingsubstackcom target_blankanotherap pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercombasilhalperinlangen target_blankbasil halperina graduate student in economics at mit for his a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbasilhalperincomessayshtml target_blankwritinga and for general career developmentp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsmobiletwittercomgytdaulangengb target_blankgytis daujotasa lives in dublin studying computer science at dcu for a project to make the great books on the web easy to read and for general career development  here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsgytisco target_blankhis web siteap pa relnoopener hrefhttpsgeoffanderscom target_blankgeoff andersa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwleverageresearchorg target_blankleverage researcha to support his work to find relevant bottlenecks in science and help overcome them  a progress studies fellowp pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlinkedincominsamcjordan target_blanksamantha jordana nyu stern school of business with a relnoopener hrefhttpsmobiletwittercombechhof target_blanknathaniel bechhofera for a new company our platform will accelerate the speed and quality of science by enabling scientists to easily manage their data and research pipelines using best practices from software engineering  also a progress studies grantp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsninakheracom target_blanknina kheraa im a teenage human longevity researcher whos interested in preventing agingrelated diseases especially those related to brain aging in the past ive worked with companies like alio on computation and webdevbased projects ive also worked with labs like the gladyshev lab and the adams lab on data analysis and machine learningbased projects  her current project is a relnoopener hrefhttpsninakheracomprojectshtml target_blankbioteina about developing markers for aging based in ontariop pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommatthewsliptonref_srctwsrc5egoogle7ctwcamp5eserp7ctwgr5eauthor target_blanklipton matthewsa from jamaica here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomchanneluccgvadz4_hqgejsoyhth7zwfeatured target_blankhis youtube channela for general career developmentp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109emergentventureswinnerssixteenthcohorthtmlemergent ventures winners sixteenth cohorta appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomphoebexyaolangen target_blankphoebe yaoa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlinkedincominphoebexyao target_blankfounder ceo paretoa human api delivering business functions startups desperately need born china stanford relnoopener hrefhttpsphoebeyaocom target_blanka classical violista mistake left previous cohort list apologiesp pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbeyondagingorg target_blankbeyondaginga new group support longevity researchp pa relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightcom target_blanksam enrighta writing blogging general career development resume relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightfileswordpresscom202106samenrightcvpdf target_blankherea ireland currently studying scotlandp pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzenahitzref_srctwsrc5egoogle7ctwcamp5eserp7ctwgr5eauthor target_blankzena hitza st johns college build relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzenahitzstatus1290383391406383105 target_blankthe catherine projecta revitalize study classicsp pa relnoopener hrefhttpgleechorg target_blankgavin leecha lives bristol scotland getting phd ai general career support interested personal experimentation ameliorate chronic illness reinforcement learning microscope goodharts law weaponised philosophy donors noncollege routes impactp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsvalmikraocom target_blankvalmik raoa 17 years old ontario building program better manage defecation nigeriap pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomzoharatkins target_blankrabbi zohar atkinsa new york city pursue career public intellectual relnoopener hrefhttpetzhasadehsubstackcom target_blankone substacka relnoopener hrefhttpwhatiscalledthinkingsubstackcom target_blankanotherap pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercombasilhalperinlangen target_blankbasil halperina graduate student economics mit relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbasilhalperincomessayshtml target_blankwritinga general career developmentp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsmobiletwittercomgytdaulangengb target_blankgytis daujotasa lives dublin studying computer science dcu project great books web easy read general career development relnoopener hrefhttpsgytisco target_blankhis web siteap pa relnoopener hrefhttpsgeoffanderscom target_blankgeoff andersa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwleverageresearchorg target_blankleverage researcha support work find relevant bottlenecks science help overcome progress studies fellowp pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlinkedincominsamcjordan target_blanksamantha jordana nyu stern school business relnoopener hrefhttpsmobiletwittercombechhof target_blanknathaniel bechhofera new company platform accelerate speed quality science enabling scientists easily manage data research pipelines best practices software engineering progress studies grantp pa relnoopener hrefhttpsninakheracom target_blanknina kheraa im teenage human longevity researcher whos interested preventing agingrelated diseases especially related brain aging past ive worked companies like alio computation webdevbased projects ive worked labs like gladyshev lab adams lab data analysis machine learningbased projects current project relnoopener hrefhttpsninakheracomprojectshtml target_blankbioteina developing markers aging based ontariop pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommatthewsliptonref_srctwsrc5egoogle7ctwcamp5eserp7ctwgr5eauthor target_blanklipton matthewsa jamaica relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomchanneluccgvadz4_hqgejsoyhth7zwfeatured target_blankhis youtube channela general career developmentp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109emergentventureswinnerssixteenthcohorthtmlemergent ventures winners sixteenth cohorta appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The Research on Ivermectin and Covid-19

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg width600 alt srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg 600w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1300x300jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1500x500jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1150x150jpg 150w classwppostimage height600divpspan dirautointerest in the antiparasitic drug ivermectin has increased drastically as of late thanks to the belief that it can help to prevent andor treat covid19 in todays episode we examine recent data on the efficacy of ivermectin as an antiviral and discuss the history behind how it gained this reputation spanp p p piframe allowfullscreenallowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedq0jzrpzogti width500 height281iframep pa hrefhttpstwittercomdrtiff_phddrtiff_phdapthe post a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresstheresearchonivermectinandcovid19the research on ivermectin and covid19a first appeared on a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg width600 alt srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg 600w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1300x300jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1500x500jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1150x150jpg 150w classwppostimage height600divpspan dirautointerest antiparasitic drug ivermectin increased drastically late thanks belief help prevent andor treat covid19 todays episode examine recent data efficacy ivermectin antiviral discuss history gained reputation spanp pp piframe allowfullscreenallowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedq0jzrpzogti width500 height281iframep pa hrefhttpstwittercomdrtiff_phddrtiff_phdapthe post hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresstheresearchonivermectinandcovid19the research ivermectin covid19a appeared hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

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*Beautiful World, Where Are You?* — the new Sally Rooney novel

pit is really good and more subtle than one might have expected  imagine irelands 1 leftwing writer imbibing the brew of ross douthat over the last few years and putting it all into fictional form and convincingly at that  i dont just mean the mass scene and the pornography discussion it is the consistent theme running throughout the bookp pthe tale ends up as a true case for cultural optimism albeit with some reasonable qualificationsp phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercombookspageturnersallyrooneygetsoutsideofpeoplesheadsutm_sourcenlutm_brandtnyutm_mailingtny_daily_091021utm_campaignauddevutm_mediumemailbxid5bd66fd02ddf9c6194389d0acndid22300418hasha268e3cc9cd4f93e81125ff99bc15edb0hashbf8df4272800edcc1fe2e8ce7e5c53aa6c2b79fe9hashc5906abdd2530ce567de22e52d1c561df763a24583893148a04c39e9a87bfced3esrcauto_otherutm_termtny_daily target_blanka good new yorker reviewa by lauren michele jackson  the title of the book is excellent as wellp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109beautifulworldwhereareyouthenewsallyrooneynovelhtmlbeautiful world where are you the new sally rooney novela appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pit good subtle expected imagine irelands 1 leftwing writer imbibing brew ross douthat years putting fictional form convincingly dont mean mass scene pornography discussion consistent theme running bookp pthe tale ends true case cultural optimism albeit reasonable qualificationsp phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercombookspageturnersallyrooneygetsoutsideofpeoplesheadsutm_sourcenlutm_brandtnyutm_mailingtny_daily_091021utm_campaignauddevutm_mediumemailbxid5bd66fd02ddf9c6194389d0acndid22300418hasha268e3cc9cd4f93e81125ff99bc15edb0hashbf8df4272800edcc1fe2e8ce7e5c53aa6c2b79fe9hashc5906abdd2530ce567de22e52d1c561df763a24583893148a04c39e9a87bfced3esrcauto_otherutm_termtny_daily target_blanka good new yorker reviewa lauren michele jackson title book excellent wellp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109beautifulworldwhereareyouthenewsallyrooneynovelhtmlbeautiful world new sally rooney novela appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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My appearance on the Ezra Klein Show

ptalking with ezra is always both fun and enlightening for me here is his partial summary of the episodep blockquotepso we begin this conversation by discussing the case for and against economic growth but we also get into lots of other things why cowen thinks the great stagnation in technology is coming to an end the future of technologies like ai crypto fourthgeneration nuclear and the chinese system of government the problems in how we fund scientific research what the right has done to make government both ineffective and larger why cowen is skeptical of universal prek and why im not whether i overestimate the dangers of polarization the ways in which were getting weirder the longterm future of human civilization why reading is overrated and travel is underrated how to appreciate classical music and much morepblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210910opinionezrakleinpodcasttylercowenhtmlsmidtwnytopinionsmtypcur target_blankthe linka full transcript a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210910podcaststranscriptezrakleininterviewstylercowenhtml target_blankherea definitely recommendedp p p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myappearanceontheezrakleinshowhtmlmy appearance on the ezra klein showa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

ptalking ezra fun enlightening partial summary episodep blockquotepso begin conversation discussing case economic growth lots things cowen thinks great stagnation technology coming end future technologies like ai crypto fourthgeneration nuclear chinese system government problems fund scientific research right government ineffective larger cowen skeptical universal prek im overestimate dangers polarization ways getting weirder longterm future human civilization reading overrated travel underrated appreciate classical music morepblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210910opinionezrakleinpodcasttylercowenhtmlsmidtwnytopinionsmtypcur target_blankthe linka transcript relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210910podcaststranscriptezrakleininterviewstylercowenhtml target_blankherea definitely recommendedp pp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myappearanceontheezrakleinshowhtmlmy appearance ezra klein showa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Street-Level Responsiveness of City Governments in China, Germany, and the United States

blockquotepthis paper presents evidence from parallel field experiments in china germany and the united states we contacted the mayors office in over 6000 cities asking for information about procedures for starting a new business chinese and german cities responded to 3637 percent requests american cities responded to only 22 percent of requests we randomly varied the text of the request to identify factors that affect the likelihood of receiving a response american and german cities were more responsive to requests from citizens than foreigners chinese cities did not discriminate on this basis chinese cities were more responsive to requests from men than women german cities did not discriminate on this basis and american cities had a slight bias in favor of women cities in all three countries were more responsive to requests associated with starting a construction business than a green business but especially chinese cities chinese cities were more responsive when the mayor was being considered for promotion than after a promotion decision suggesting the importance of promotion incentives in china but low responsiveness to green investment suggests limited incentives for environmental improvement we argue that the response patterns are consistent with simple political economy theories of democracy and autocracypblockquote pthat is a relnoopener hrefhttpspapersssrncomsol3paperscfmabstract_id3907862 target_blankby ekkehard a khler john g matsusaka and yanhui wua  via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyrounduptheirproblems target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109streetlevelresponsivenessofcitygovernmentsinchinagermanyandtheunitedstateshtmlstreetlevel responsiveness of city governments in china germany and the united statesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepthis paper presents evidence parallel field experiments china germany united states contacted mayors office 6000 cities asking information procedures starting new business chinese german cities responded 3637 percent requests american cities responded 22 percent requests randomly varied text request identify factors affect likelihood receiving response american german cities responsive requests citizens foreigners chinese cities discriminate basis chinese cities responsive requests men women german cities discriminate basis american cities slight bias favor women cities countries responsive requests associated starting construction business green business especially chinese cities chinese cities responsive mayor considered promotion promotion decision suggesting importance promotion incentives china low responsiveness green investment suggests limited incentives environmental improvement argue response patterns consistent simple political economy theories democracy autocracypblockquote pthat relnoopener hrefhttpspapersssrncomsol3paperscfmabstract_id3907862 target_blankby ekkehard khler john g matsusaka yanhui wua excellent relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyrounduptheirproblems target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109streetlevelresponsivenessofcitygovernmentsinchinagermanyandtheunitedstateshtmlstreetlevel responsiveness city governments china germany united statesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The Ig Nobel Prizes

pimg srchttpsbiooneorgcontentimagesjournalsjwdi572201908202graphicwebimagesimgz21_357jpg altimgz21_357jpg width278 height324the ig nobel prize in economics this year went to spanpavlo blavatskyy forspan a hrefhttpsonlinelibrarywileycomdoi101111ecot12259obesity of politicians and corruption in postsoviet countriesap blockquotepwe collected 299 frontal face images of 2017 cabinet ministers from 15 postsoviet states armenia azerbaijan belarus estonia georgia kazakhstan kyrgyzstan latvia lithuania moldova russia tajikistan turkmenistan ukraine and uzbekistan for each image the ministers bodymass index is estimated using a computer vision algorithm the median estimated bodymass index of cabinet ministers is highly correlated with conventional measures of corruption transparency international corruption perceptions index world bank worldwide governance indicator control of corruption index of public integrity this result suggests that physical characteristics of politicians such as their bodymass index can be used as proxy variables for political corruption when the latter are not available for instance at a very local levelpblockquote pthe transportation prize went to researchers led by cornell universitys a relnoopener hrefhttpwwwlivingfossilorgaboutrobinphp shaperect titleliving fossil i art projects picture gallery and falconry target_blankrobin w radcliffea for determining that it is safe to a hrefhttpsbiooneorgjournalsjournalofwildlifediseasesvolume57issue2201908202thepulmonaryandmetaboliceffectsofsuspensionbythefeet107589201908202fulltransport an airborne rhinoceros upside downap pother prizes a hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsscienceenvironment58507100hereap pyou may laugh but dont forget that the a hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiandre_geimgreat andre geima won an ig nobel prize in 2000 for levitating a frog and then won a nobel prize in 2010 for graphene i consider this one of the greatest accomplishments in all of sciencep pphoto credit journal of wildlife diseasesp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109theignobelprizeshtmlthe ig nobel prizesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pimg srchttpsbiooneorgcontentimagesjournalsjwdi572201908202graphicwebimagesimgz21_357jpg altimgz21_357jpg width278 height324the ig nobel prize economics year went spanpavlo blavatskyy forspan hrefhttpsonlinelibrarywileycomdoi101111ecot12259obesity politicians corruption postsoviet countriesap blockquotepwe collected 299 frontal face images 2017 cabinet ministers 15 postsoviet states armenia azerbaijan belarus estonia georgia kazakhstan kyrgyzstan latvia lithuania moldova russia tajikistan turkmenistan ukraine uzbekistan image ministers bodymass index estimated computer vision algorithm median estimated bodymass index cabinet ministers highly correlated conventional measures corruption transparency international corruption perceptions index world bank worldwide governance indicator control corruption index public integrity result suggests physical characteristics politicians bodymass index proxy variables political corruption available instance local levelpblockquote pthe transportation prize went researchers led cornell universitys relnoopener hrefhttpwwwlivingfossilorgaboutrobinphp shaperect titleliving fossil art projects picture gallery falconry target_blankrobin w radcliffea determining safe hrefhttpsbiooneorgjournalsjournalofwildlifediseasesvolume57issue2201908202thepulmonaryandmetaboliceffectsofsuspensionbythefeet107589201908202fulltransport airborne rhinoceros upside downap pother prizes hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsscienceenvironment58507100hereap pyou laugh dont forget hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiandre_geimgreat andre geima won ig nobel prize 2000 levitating frog won nobel prize 2010 graphene consider greatest accomplishments sciencep pphoto credit journal wildlife diseasesp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109theignobelprizeshtmlthe ig nobel prizesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Why are American talk shows so much worse than British ones?

pa relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightcom target_blanksam enrighta emails mep blockquotepmy girlfriend is american and shes been struck by how the uk panel shows qi would i lie to you 8 out of 10 cats are so much better than the american ones and play to the lowest common denominator less there dont seem to be a lot of panel shows in america per se but the closest thing is late night shows and so far as i can tell theyre all terrible a lot of whining about politics previously good comedians like trevor noah or john oliver seem to become remarkably unfunny upon becoming hosts of us shows yet america has no deficit in producing quality films and tv in general do you have a theory about this are there culturespecific cues that im not picking up on is the american elite more competitive and therefore more politically unified and does this filter down to there being a remarkably narrow range of views you can implicitly endorse in american comedy is it all just that the bbc has good taste in what it fundspblockquote pi dont watch enough television to have an informed opinion but my general intuition is often that the american market has all sorts of hidden corners and niches many of them stupid so often there are especially high returns to selling out  in britain maybe it is more the case that the tv customers you see are the tv customers you get  this hypothesis while it can lead to cultural dumbing down is also consistent with the us market as especially good for new product introduction and not just because population is high  any opinions on the tv issuep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whyareamericantalkshowssomuchworsethanbritishoneshtmlwhy are american talk shows so much worse than british onesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relnoopener hrefhttpssamenrightcom target_blanksam enrighta emails mep blockquotepmy girlfriend american shes struck uk panel shows qi lie 8 10 cats better american onesand play thelowest common denominator dont lot panel shows america se closest thing late night shows far tell theyre terrible lot whining politics previously good comedians like trevor noah john oliver remarkably unfunny hosts shows america deficit producing quality films tv general theory culturespecific cues im picking american elite competitive politically unified filter remarkably narrow range views implicitlyendorse american comedy bbc good taste fundspblockquote pi dont watch television informed opinion general intuition american market sorts hidden corners niches stupid especially high returns selling britain maybe case tv customers tv customers hypothesis lead cultural dumbing consistent market especially good new product introduction population high opinions tv issuep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whyareamericantalkshowssomuchworsethanbritishoneshtmlwhy american talk shows worse british onesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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OnlySubs: The Woke Won’t Let Go of Power

pemonlysubs episode 60 the woke wont let go of powerspan datatagposttitle spanemis now available exclusively for new discourses contributors on the following platformsbr a relnoopener hrefhttpsnewdiscourseslocalscompost1044080thewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubswithjameslindsayep60 target_blanklocalsabr a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpatreoncompostswokewontletgo55923266 target_blankpatreonabr a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsubscribestarcomposts417001 target_blanksubscribestarabr a relnoopener hrefhttpsyoutubeekjcry2ffds target_blankyoutube membersabr a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthinkspotcomonline_contentnewdiscoursesthewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubswithjameslindsayep60mqu9q7aevent target_blankthinkspotap pin trying to understand what the woke movement is and why we all need to be willing to fight back against it its helpful to observe how it behaves under certain circumstances youve all probably heard for example that we should look to how someone treats those beneath them to understand their character but theres another test of a persons mettle that can be quite revealing how do they react when for good reasons they are asked to relinquish power with the woke its pretty obvious theres nothing they hate more they throw fits they engage in illegal activity they bully they slander they sue they call everyone opposing them by horrible names they cheat they do literally everything they can to hold on to every shred of power that theyve taken for themselves even when theyre clearly abusing it this tells you a lot about them theyre bullies and theyre obsessed with one thing above all else obtaining and keeping power for themselves few facts could possibly tell us that they dont deserve power and in the very moment they abuse it must be removed from it in this episode of james lindsay onlysubs my subscribersonly podcast i discuss this phenomenon a little to give you some clearer sense of what were dealing with in the woke movement and therefore also how we must approach pushing back against itp pprevious episodes of emonlysubsem can be found a hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomtagonlysubshereap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescom202109onlysubsthewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubs the woke wont let go of powera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew discoursesap

pemonlysubs episode 60 woke wont let powerspan datatagposttitlespanemis available exclusively new discourses contributors following platformsbr relnoopener hrefhttpsnewdiscourseslocalscompost1044080thewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubswithjameslindsayep60 target_blanklocalsabr relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpatreoncompostswokewontletgo55923266 target_blankpatreonabr relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsubscribestarcomposts417001 target_blanksubscribestarabr relnoopener hrefhttpsyoutubeekjcry2ffds target_blankyoutube membersabr relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthinkspotcomonline_contentnewdiscoursesthewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubswithjameslindsayep60mqu9q7aevent target_blankthinkspotap pin trying understand woke movement need willing fight helpful observe behaves certain circumstances youve probably heard example look treats beneath understand character theres test persons mettle revealing react good reasons asked relinquish power woke pretty obvious theres hate throw fits engage illegal activity bully slander sue opposing horrible names cheat literally hold shred power theyve taken theyre clearly abusing tells lot theyre bullies theyre obsessed thing obtaining keeping power facts possibly tell dont deserve power moment abuse removed episode james lindsay onlysubs subscribersonly podcast discuss phenomenon little clearer sense dealing woke movement approach pushing itp pprevious episodes emonlysubsem found hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomtagonlysubshereap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescom202109onlysubsthewokewontletgoofpoweronlysubs woke wont let powera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew discoursesap

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US economy is being undermined by supply-side struggles

pstrongby james pethokoukisstrongp pthe us isnt a simple machine where government spending is the input and easily predictable economic growth is the output if washington policymakers doubted that reality its truth is becoming all too clear during this pandemic you can try to boost growth by increasing demand but theres also a supply side of the economy and even if the former is holding up well during this delta surge its strength can be at least partially offset by troubles with the former this from capital economicsp blockquote classwpblockquotepwith authorities having shown no appetite to reimpose restrictions on activity and new virus cases now levelling off [and] assuming new virus cases drop back over the coming weeks this all suggests that the hit to demand from the delta variant will be more modest than in previous waves [p]otentially more important is the disruption being caused by the delta variant in other parts of the global economy particularly in key manufacturing hubs in asia the worsening semiconductor shortage has already prompted ford and gm to extend plant closures which will exacerbate the weakness in autos production and sales at the same time evidence suggests that renewed virus fears may be preventing some us workers from returning to the labour force contributing to the persistent and extensive labor shortages noted in the feds latest beige book this suggests the hit to supply from the delta variant could end up being as significant as its effects on demand keeping upward pressure on prices and holding back the recovery in real activitypblockquote pand this from economist mark zandi of moodys analytics on the supply side of the economy p blockquote classwpblockquotepdelta has further scrambled global supply chains as factories have shut down in southeast asia when workers got sick and china has intermittently locked down port activity in an effort to contain the virus the vehicle industry has been especially disrupted as the severe shortage of semiconductors coming from asia has forced vehicle plants to close with few vehicles to sell inventories are at record lows sales have plunged and vehicle prices have gone parabolic homebuilders struggling with shortages and higher prices for everything from lumber and paint to fixtures and appliances have had no choice but to pull back on construction despite vacancy rates that are about as low as they have been since world war ii and headed lower and soaring house prices and rentspblockquote pnow none of this is suggesting to economists that a recession is on its way although many wall street banks have pared back their growth forecasts for this part zandi is looking for a return to full employment by spring 2023 but the economys supply side and supply chain problems are a reminder of how central the pandemic remains to the countrys economic prospectsp divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons to use newroaring20s unironicallya a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsinnovationisimportantevenmorethanyouthinkinnovation is important even more than you thinka a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsfirstthebillionairespaceracenowmaybeabillionairelongevityracefirst the billionaire space race now maybe a billionaire longevity raceapdiv pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsuseconomyisbeingunderminedbysupplysidestrugglesus economy is being undermined by supplyside strugglesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

pstrongby james pethokoukisstrongp pthe isnt simple machine government spending input easily predictable economic growth output washington policymakers doubted reality truth clear pandemic try boost growth increasing demand theres supply economy holding delta surge strength partially offset troubles capital economicsp blockquote classwpblockquotepwith authorities having shown appetite reimpose restrictions activity new virus cases levelling [and] assuming new virus cases drop coming weeks suggests hit demand delta variant modest previous waves [p]otentially important disruption caused delta variant parts global economy particularly key manufacturing hubs asia worsening semiconductor shortage prompted ford gm extend plant closures exacerbate weakness autos production sales time evidence suggests renewed virus fears preventing workers returning labour force contributing persistent extensive labor shortages noted feds latest beige book suggests hit supply delta variant end significant effects demand keeping upward pressure prices holding recovery real activitypblockquote pand economist mark zandi moodys analytics supply economyp blockquote classwpblockquotepdelta scrambled global supply chains factories shut southeast asia workers got sick china intermittently locked port activity effort contain virus vehicle industry especially disrupted severe shortage semiconductors coming asia forced vehicle plants close vehicles sell inventories record lows sales plunged vehicle prices gone parabolic homebuilders struggling shortages higher prices lumber paint fixtures appliances choice pull construction despite vacancy rates low world war ii headed lower soaring house prices rentspblockquote pnow suggesting economists recession way wall street banks pared growth forecasts zandi looking return employment spring 2023 economys supply supply chain problems reminder central pandemic remains countrys economic prospectsp divpstronglearn stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons use newroaring20s unironicallya hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsinnovationisimportantevenmorethanyouthinkinnovation important thinka hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsfirstthebillionairespaceracenowmaybeabillionairelongevityracefirst billionaire space race maybe billionaire longevity raceapdiv pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsuseconomyisbeingunderminedbysupplysidestrugglesus economy undermined supplyside strugglesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

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Seven Possible Causes of the Next Financial Crisis

pthe great financial historian charles kindleberger pointed out in the 1970s that over several centuries history showed there was a financial crisis about once every ten years his observation still holds in every decade since his classic emmanias panics and crashesem of 1978 such crises have indeed continued to erupt in their turn in the 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s and again in 2020 what could cause the emnextem crisis in this long recurring series i suggest seven possibilitiesp pstrong1 what nobody sees comingstrongp pa notable headline from 2017 was yellen i dont see a financial crisis coming in our lifetimes the thenhead of the federal reserve was right that she didnt see it coming nonetheless well within her and our lifetimes a new financial crisis arrived in 2020 from unexpected causesp pit has been well said that the riskiest stuff is what you dont see coming especially risky is what you dont think is possible but happens anywayp pabout the global financial crisis of 200709 a former vice chairman of the federal reserve candidly observed not only didnt we see it coming but in the midst of it had trouble understanding what was happening similarly central banks and regulators failed to see the bust coming just as they failed to anticipate its potential magnitude as another top central banking expert wrotep pthe next financial crisis could be the samewe may take another blindside hit for a big financial sackp pin his memoir of the 200709 crisis former secretary of the treasury henry paulson wrote we had no choice but to fly by the seat of our pants making it up as we went along if the next financial crisis is again triggered by what we dont see coming the government reactions will once again be flying by the seat of their pants making it up as they go alongp pstrong2 a purely malicious macrohack of the financial systemstrongp pwe keep learning about how vulnerable to hacking especially by statesponsored hackers even the most secure systems are here i am not considering a hack to make money or collect blackmail or a hack for spying but a purely malicious hack with the sole goal of creating destruction and panic to cripple the united states by bringing down our amazingly complex and totally computerdependent financial information systemsp pimagine macrohackers attacking with the same destructive motivation as the 911 terrorists suppose when they strike trading and payments systems cant clear there are no market prices no one can find out the balances in their accounts or the value of their risk positions and no one knows who is broke or solvent that is my second next crisis scenariop pstrong3 all the central banks get it wrong togetherstrongp pwe know that the major central banks operate as a tight international club their decisions are subject to vast uncertainty and as a result they display significant cognitive and behavioral herdingp pi read somewhere the colorful line central banks have become slaves of the bubbles they blow whether or not we think that there is no question that the principal central banks have all together managed to create a gigantic global asset price inflationp psuppose they have also managed to set off a disastrous runaway general price inflation then ultimately interest rates must rise and asset prices fall this will be in a setting of stretched asset prices and high debt as asset prices fall speculative leverage will be punished every great crisis reveals the excessive speculations of many houses which no one before suspected as walter bagehot said the everything bubble of our time would then implode and the crisis would be upon us huge government bailouts would ensuep figure classwpblockpullquote blockquotepwe have discovered that to combat a pandemic governments can close down economies and cause massive unemployment and economic disruption would they do that againor something elsepblockquote figure pstrong4 a housing collapse againstrongp pa particularly notable asset price inflation is once again that in the price of houses which are the biggest investment most households have and are the mortgage collateral for the biggest loan market in the world house prices are now rising in the us at the unsustainable rate of more than a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesushomepricegrowthrosetorecordinjune11630414873 target_blank18 a yearaspan [1]span but this is also global problem many countries about 20 by one reckoning face extreme house price inflation a relnoopener hrefhttpsheisenbergreportcom20210624epicpropertybubblestunsmanandbeastalikealbertedwardssays target_blanksaid one financial commentatoraspan [2]span this is now a global property bubble of epic proportions never before seen by man or beast and it has entrapped more central banks than just the fedp phouse prices depend on high leverage and are as is well known very interest rate sensitive what would an actual marketdetermined mortgage rate look like instead of the federal reservemanipulated 3 mortgage rate the us has now a reasonable estimate would begin with a 3 general inflation and therefore a 45 10year treasury note the longterm mortgage rate would be 15 over that or 6 that would more or less double the monthly payment for the samesized mortgage house prices would fall steeply and our world record house price bubble implode faced with that possibility so far the federal reserves choice has been to keep pumping up the bubblep poverpriced leveraged real estate is a frequent culprit in financial crises maybe once againp pstrong5 an electricity system failurestrongp pimagine a failure similar to our financial system macrohack scenario resulting from an attack maliciously carried out to bring down the national electricity system or from a huge solar flare bigger than the one that took down the electric system of quebec in 1989p pphysically speaking the financial system including of course all forms of electronic payments is an electronic system utterly dependent upon the supply of electricity should that fail it would certainly be good to have some paper currency in your wallet or actual gold coins bank accounts and cryptocurrencies will not be working so wellp pstrong6 the emnext empandemicstrongp pit feels like we have survived the covid pandemic and the crisis is passing even with the ongoing problem of the delta variant we are certainly more relaxed than at the peak of the intense fear and the lockdowns of 2020 instead of financial markets being in free fall as they were they are boomingp pbut what about theem nextem pandemic we have discovered that to combat a pandemic governments can close down economies and cause massive unemployment and economic disruption would they do that againor something elsep phow soon could a new pandemic happen we dont knowp pmight that new pandemic be much more deadly than covid consider professor adam tooze one thing 2020 forces us to come to terms with is that this emwasnt ema black swan [an unknown possibility] this kind of pandemic was widely and insistently and repeatedly predicted what wasnt predicted was the political response and the financial panic in fact tooze continues what people had predicted was worse than the coronavirusp pif the prediction of an even worse and more deadly new pandemic becomes right perhaps sooner than we might think that might trigger our next financial crisisp pstrong7 a major warstrongp pby far the most important financial events of all are big warsp pa sobering talk i heard a few years ago described china as germany in 1913p pthis of course brings our mind to 1914 the incredible destruction then unleashed included a financial panic and the war created huge intractable financial problems which lasted up to the numerous sovereign defaults of the 1930sp pwhat if a big war happened again in the 21st century if you think that is not possible recall the oncefamous book norman angels emthe great illusionem which argued that a 20thcentury war among european powers would be so economically costly that it would not happen in the event it was unimaginably costly but nonetheless happenedp pone distinguished scholar graham allison of harvard a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20170619arechinaandtheunitedstatesheadedforwar target_blankhas writtenaspan [3]span a disastrous war between the united states and china in the decades ahead is not just possible but much more likely than most of us are willing to allow a particular point of tension is the chinese claim to sovereignty over taiwan  might a chinese decision to end taiwans freedom by force be the equivalent of the german invasion of belgium in 1914p pwould anyone be crazy enough to start a war between china and the united states we all certainly hope not but we should remember that such a war did already occur most of the korean war consisted of battles between the chinese and american armies in his history of the korean war david halberstam wrote the chinese viewed korea as a great success and that mao had shrewdly understood the domestic benefits of having his county at war with the americansp pif it happened again it would be a terrific crisis needless to say with perhaps a global financial panic thrown inp poverall we can say there is plenty of risk and uncertainty to provide the possibility of the next financial crisisp divh3endnotesh3ollispan18 a yearspan httpswwwwsjcomarticlesushomepricegrowthrosetorecordinjune11630414873lilispansaid one financial commentatorspan httpsheisenbergreportcom20210624epicpropertybubblestunsmanandbeastalikealbertedwardssayslilispanhas writtenspan httpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20170619arechinaandtheunitedstatesheadedforwarlioldivpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorg20210913sevenpossiblecausesofthenextfinancialcrisisseven possible causes of the next financial crisisa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorgr streetap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrrstreet4zio5qlsjpvo height1

pthe great financial historian charles kindleberger pointed 1970s centuries history showed financial crisis years observation holds decade classicemmanias panics crashesemof 1978 crises continued erupt turn 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020 cause theemnextemcrisis long recurring series suggest seven possibilitiesp pstrong1 sees comingstrongp pa notable headline 2017 yellen dont financial crisis coming lifetimesthe thenhead federal reserve right didnt coming nonetheless lifetimes new financial crisis arrived 2020 unexpected causesp pit said riskiest stuff dont comingespecially risky dont think possible happens anywayp pabout global financial crisis 200709 vice chairman federal reserve candidly observed didnt coming midst trouble understanding happening similarly central banks regulators failed bust coming failed anticipate potential magnitude central banking expert wrotep pthe financial crisis samewe blindside hit big financial sackp pin memoir 200709 crisis secretary treasury henry paulson wrote choice fly seat pants making went alongif financial crisis triggered dont coming government reactions flying seat pants making alongp pstrong2 purely malicious macrohack financial systemstrongp pwe learning vulnerable hacking especially statesponsored hackers secure systems considering hack money collect blackmail hack spying purely malicious hack sole goal creating destruction panic cripple united states bringing amazingly complex totally computerdependent financial information systemsp pimagine macrohackers attacking destructive motivation 911 terrorists suppose strike trading payments systems cant clear market prices find balances accounts value risk positions knows broke solvent second crisis scenariop pstrong3 central banks wrong togetherstrongp pwe know major central banks operate tight international club decisions subject vast uncertainty result display significant cognitive behavioral herdingp pi read colorful line central banks slaves bubbles blowwhether think question principal central banks managed create gigantic global asset price inflationp psuppose managed set disastrous runaway general price inflation ultimately interest rates rise asset prices fall setting stretched asset prices high debt asset prices fall speculative leverage punished great crisis reveals excessive speculations houses suspected walter bagehot said bubble time implode crisis huge government bailouts ensuep figure classwpblockpullquote blockquotepwe discovered combat pandemic governments close economies cause massive unemployment economic disruption againor elsepblockquote figure pstrong4 housing collapse againstrongp pa particularly notable asset price inflation price houses biggest investment households mortgage collateral biggest loan market world house prices rising unsustainable rate thana relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesushomepricegrowthrosetorecordinjune11630414873 target_blank18 yearaspan [1]span global problem countries 20 reckoning face extreme house price inflationa relnoopener hrefhttpsheisenbergreportcom20210624epicpropertybubblestunsmanandbeastalikealbertedwardssays target_blanksaid financial commentatoraspan [2]span global property bubble epic proportions seen man beast entrapped central banks fedp phouse prices depend high leverage known interest rate sensitive actual marketdetermined mortgage rate look like instead federal reservemanipulated 3 mortgage rate reasonable estimate begin 3 general inflation 45 10year treasury note longterm mortgage rate 15 6 double monthly payment samesized mortgage house prices fall steeply world record house price bubble implode faced possibility far federal reserves choice pumping bubblep poverpriced leveraged real estate frequent culprit financial crises maybe againp pstrong5 electricity system failurestrongp pimagine failure similar financial system macrohack scenario resulting attack maliciously carried bring national electricity system huge solar flare bigger took electric system quebec 1989p pphysically speaking financial system including course forms electronic payments electronic system utterly dependent supply electricity fail certainly good paper currency wallet actual gold coins bank accounts cryptocurrencies working wellp pstrong6 theemnextempandemicstrongp pit feels like survived covid pandemic crisis passing ongoing problem delta variant certainly relaxed peak intense fear lockdowns 2020 instead financial markets free fall boomingp pbut theemnextempandemic discovered combat pandemic governments close economies cause massive unemployment economic disruption againor elsep phow soon new pandemic happen dont knowp pmight new pandemic deadly covid consider professor adam tooze thing 2020 forces come terms thisemwasntema black swan [an unknown possibility] kind pandemic widely insistently repeatedly predicted wasnt predicted political response financial panic fact tooze continues people predicted worse coronavirusp pif prediction worse deadly new pandemic right sooner think trigger financial crisisp pstrong7 major warstrongp pby far important financial events big warsp pa sobering talk heard years ago described china germany 1913p pthis course brings mind 1914 incredible destruction unleashed included financial panic war created huge intractable financial problems lasted numerous sovereign defaults 1930sp pwhat big war happened 21st centuryif think possible recall oncefamous book norman angelsemthe great illusionem argued 20thcentury war european powers economically costly happen event unimaginably costly nonetheless happenedp pone distinguished scholar graham allison harvarda relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20170619arechinaandtheunitedstatesheadedforwar target_blankhas writtenaspan [3]span disastrous war united states china decades ahead possible likely willing allow particular point tension chinese claim sovereignty taiwan chinese decision end taiwans freedom force equivalent german invasion belgium 1914p pwould crazy start war china united stateswe certainly hope remember war occur korean war consisted battles chinese american armies history korean war david halberstam wrote chinese viewed korea great success mao shrewdly understood domestic benefits having county war americansp pif happened terrific crisis needless global financial panic thrown inp poverall plenty risk uncertainty provide possibility financial crisisp divh3endnotesh3ollispan18 yearspan httpswwwwsjcomarticlesushomepricegrowthrosetorecordinjune11630414873lilispansaid financial commentatorspan httpsheisenbergreportcom20210624epicpropertybubblestunsmanandbeastalikealbertedwardssayslilispanhas writtenspan httpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20170619arechinaandtheunitedstatesheadedforwarlioldivpthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorg20210913sevenpossiblecausesofthenextfinancialcrisisseven possible causes financial crisisa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorgr streetap img width1 alt srchttpfeedsfeedburnercomrrstreet4zio5qlsjpvo height1

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Why I am reluctant to endorse preschool

pa few of you asked for followups given a relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myappearanceontheezrakleinshowhtml target_blankmy discussion with ezra kleina  here is one paper that makes me skepticalp blockquotepexploiting admission thresholds in a regression discontinuity design we study the causal effects of daycare at age 02 on cognitive and noncognitive outcomes at age 814 one additional month in daycare reduces iq by 05 45 of a standard deviation effects for conscientiousness are small and imprecisely estimated psychologists suggest that children in daycare experience fewer onetoone interactions with adults which should be particularly relevant for girls who are more capable than boys of exploiting cognitive stimuli at an early age in line with this interpretation losses for girls are larger and more significant especially in affluent familiespblockquote pthat is sometimes called the bologna preschool paper and it is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwweconstoreubitstream104191415151dp9756pdf target_blankby fort ichina and zanellaa  more generally there is the question of whether a society will produce more top performers with the state as nanny or with the parents as nanny  maybe we dont know but my intuition suggests with the parents  here are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpsychologytodaycomieblogfreedomlearn202105thecaseagainstuniversalpreschool target_blanksome other reservationsa and here are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomeducationarchive201411thecaseagainstuniversalpreschool382853 target_blankmore yeta  it is difficult to show lasting benefits from preschool  here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution201510newresultsonpreschoolfromatennesseercthtml target_blankthe most extensive study i have seena and it shows negative results for preschool  or consider a relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution201311anewrctstudyofpreschoolhtml target_blankthis rcta  symbolically i am not crazy about the idea of building systems that imply human life is about schooling almost from the get go  i dont think the literature to date is conclusive but i do think the case for preschool still remains to be madep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whyiamreluctanttoendorsepreschoolhtmlwhy i am reluctant to endorse preschoola appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa asked followups given relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myappearanceontheezrakleinshowhtml target_blankmy discussion ezra kleina paper makes skepticalp blockquotepexploiting admission thresholds regression discontinuity design study causal effects daycare age 02 cognitive noncognitive outcomes age 814 additional month daycare reduces iq 05 45 standard deviation effects conscientiousness small imprecisely estimated psychologists suggest children daycare experience fewer onetoone interactions adults particularly relevant girls capable boys exploiting cognitive stimuli early age line interpretation losses girls larger significant especially affluent familiespblockquote pthat called bologna preschool paper relnoopener hrefhttpswwweconstoreubitstream104191415151dp9756pdf target_blankby fort ichina zanellaa generally question society produce performers state nanny parents nanny maybe dont know intuition suggests parents relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpsychologytodaycomieblogfreedomlearn202105thecaseagainstuniversalpreschool target_blanksome reservationsa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomeducationarchive201411thecaseagainstuniversalpreschool382853 target_blankmore yeta difficult lasting benefits preschool relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution201510newresultsonpreschoolfromatennesseercthtml target_blankthe extensive study seena shows negative results preschool consider relnoopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution201311anewrctstudyofpreschoolhtml target_blankthis rcta symbolically crazy idea building systems imply human life schooling dont think literature date conclusive think case preschool remains madep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whyiamreluctanttoendorsepreschoolhtmlwhy reluctant endorse preschoola appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Operation Warp Speed: A Story Yet to be Told

poperation warp speed was by far the most successful government program against covid but as of yet there is very little discussion or history of the program as just an indication i looked for references in a bunch of pandemic books to general perna who coled ows with moncef slaoui michael lewis in a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106thepremonitionhtmlthe premonitiona never mentions perna neither does slavitt in a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107bookreviewandyslavittspreventablehtmlpreventablea nor does wright in a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomplagueyearamericatimecoviddp0593320727tagmarginalrevol20the plague yeara nor does gottlieb in a hrefhttpswwwamazoncompreparinginevitablenormalsurviveepidemicdp006308001xtagmarginalrevol20uncontrolled spreada abutaleb and paletta in a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107reviewofabutalebandpalettasnightmarescenariohtmlnightmare scenarioa have just two index entries for perna basically just stating his appointment and meeting with trumpp pyet there are many questions to be asked about ows who wrote the contracts who chose the vaccines who found the money who ran the day to day operation why was the state and local rollout so slow and uneven how was the dpa used who lifted the regulations how was the fda convinced to go fastp pi dont know the answer to these questions i suspect when it is all written down richard danzig will be seen as an important behind the scenes player in the early stages i was involved with some meetings with him as part of the kremer team grogan at the dpc seems underrecognized peter marks at the fda was likely extremely important in getting the fda to run with the program marks brought people like janet woodcock from the fda to ows so you had a nominally independent group but one completely familiar with fda policy and staff and that was probably critical and of course slaoui and perna were important leaders and communicators with the private sector and the logistics group but they have yet to be seriously debriefedp pits also time for a revisionist account of president trumps council of economic advisors michael kremer and i spoke to the dpc and the cea early on in the pandemic and argued for a program similar to what would later be called ows the cea however was way ahead of the game in sept of 2019 yes 2019 the cea produced a report titled a hrefhttpstrumpwhitehousearchivesgovwpcontentuploads201909mitigatingtheimpactofpandemicinfluenzathroughvaccineinnovationpdfspanmitigating the impact of pandemic influenza through vaccine innovation spanathe report calculates the immense potential cost of a pandemic and how a privatepublic partnership could mitigate these costsall of this before anyone had heard the term covid nor did that happen by accident thomas philipson the cea chair had made his reputation in the field of a hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw7037economic epidemiologya incorporating incentives and behavioral analysis in epidemiological models to a hrefhttpswwwhupharvardeducatalogphpisbn9780674707382understand hiva and the spread of a hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable2950864other infectious diseasesa eric sun another cea economist had also written with philipson a hrefhttpswwwaeaweborgarticlesid101257jep22185about the fdaa and its problems casey mulligan was another cea chief economist who understand the danger of pandemics and was influenced by sam peltzman on the costs of fda delay so the cea was well prepared for the pandemic and i suspect they gave trump very good advice on starting operation warp speedp pin short someone deserves credit for a a hrefhttpswwwscienceorgdoifull101126scienceabg0889multitrilliondollar saving government programa more importantly we know a lot about cdc and fda failure but in order to know what we should build upon we also need to know what worked ows worked we need a history of how and whyp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109operationwarpspeedastoryyettobetoldhtmloperation warp speed a story yet to be tolda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

poperation warp speed far successful government program covid little discussion history program indication looked references bunch pandemic books general perna coled ows moncef slaoui michael lewis hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106thepremonitionhtmlthe premonitiona mentions perna slavitt hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107bookreviewandyslavittspreventablehtmlpreventablea wright hrefhttpswwwamazoncomplagueyearamericatimecoviddp0593320727tagmarginalrevol20the plague yeara gottlieb hrefhttpswwwamazoncompreparinginevitablenormalsurviveepidemicdp006308001xtagmarginalrevol20uncontrolled spreada abutaleb paletta hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107reviewofabutalebandpalettasnightmarescenariohtmlnightmare scenarioa index entries perna basically stating appointment meeting trumpp pyet questions asked ows wrote contracts chose vaccines found money ran day day operation state local rollout slow uneven dpa lifted regulations fda convinced fastp pi dont know answer questions suspect written richard danzig seen important scenes player early stages involved meetings kremer team grogan dpc underrecognized peter marks fda likely extremely important getting fda run program marks brought people like janet woodcock fda ows nominally independent group completely familiar fda policy staff probably critical course slaoui perna important leaders communicators private sector logistics group seriously debriefedp pits time revisionist account president trumps council economic advisors michael kremer spoke dpc cea early pandemic argued program similar later called ows cea way ahead game sept 2019 yes 2019 cea produced report titled hrefhttpstrumpwhitehousearchivesgovwpcontentuploads201909mitigatingtheimpactofpandemicinfluenzathroughvaccineinnovationpdfspanmitigating impact pandemic influenza vaccine innovation spanathe report calculates immense potential cost pandemic privatepublic partnership mitigate costsall heard term covid happen accident thomas philipson cea chair reputation field hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw7037economic epidemiologya incorporating incentives behavioral analysis epidemiological models hrefhttpswwwhupharvardeducatalogphpisbn9780674707382understand hiva spread hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable2950864other infectious diseasesa eric sun cea economist written philipson hrefhttpswwwaeaweborgarticlesid101257jep22185about fdaa problems casey mulligan cea chief economist understand danger pandemics influenced sam peltzman costs fda delay cea prepared pandemic suspect gave trump good advice starting operation warp speedp pin short deserves credit hrefhttpswwwscienceorgdoifull101126scienceabg0889multitrilliondollar saving government programa importantly know lot cdc fda failure order know build need know worked ows worked need history whyp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109operationwarpspeedastoryyettobetoldhtmloperation warp speed story tolda appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Immigration to the U.S. is correlated with quite high life expectancy

blockquotepwe find that immigration increases us life expectancy by 15 years for men and 14 years for women over half of these contributions occur at the prime working ages of 2564 the difference between foreignborn and usborn mortality has grown substantially since 1990 with the ratio of usborn to foreignborn mortality rates nearly doubling by 2017 in that year foreignborn life expectancy reached 814 and 857 years for men and women respectively70 and 62 years higher than their usorigin counterparts these life expectancy levels are remarkable by most standards foreignborn male life expectancy exceeds that of swiss men the world leaders in male life expectancy life expectancy for foreignborn women is close to that of japanese women the world leaders in female life expectancy the widening mortality difference between the usborn and foreignborn populations coupled with an increase in the share of the population born abroad has been responsible for much of the increase in national life expectancy in recent years between 2007 and 2017 foreignborn men and women were responsible for 44 and 60 of national life expectancy improvements between 2010 and 2017 immigrants experienced gains while the usborn experienced declines in life expectancy thus nearly all of the post2010 mortality stagnation is due to adverse trends among the usborn without immigrants and their children national life expectancy in 2017 would be reduced to its 2003 levels these findings demonstrate that immigration acts to bolster american life expectancy with particularly valuable contributions at the prime working agespblockquote pi will repeat what is to me the most striking excerptp blockquotepforeignborn male life expectancy exceeds that of swiss men the world leaders in male life expectancy life expectancy for foreignborn women is close to that of japanese women the world leaders in female life expectancypblockquote pmany interesting results in there for instance those immigrants sure are mighty  i strongly suspect much of that is selection and another big part lifestyle but yet another implication is that the us health care system maybe isnt as terrible as what you have been hearing  and that living in the us over the generations screws people upp phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis2352827321001890 target_blankthe full piecea by arun s hendi and jessica y ho via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupbuyingthevote target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109immigrationtotheusiscorrelatedwithquitehighlifeexpectancyhtmlimmigration to the us is correlated with quite high life expectancya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepwe find immigration increases life expectancy 15 years men 14 years women half contributions occur prime working ages 2564 difference foreignborn usborn mortality grown substantially 1990 ratio usborn foreignborn mortality rates nearly doubling 2017 year foreignborn life expectancy reached 814 857 years men women respectively70 62 years higher usorigin counterparts life expectancy levels remarkable standards foreignborn male life expectancy exceeds swiss men world leaders male life expectancy life expectancy foreignborn women close japanese women world leaders female life expectancy widening mortality difference usborn foreignborn populations coupled increase share population born abroad responsible increase national life expectancy recent years 2007 2017 foreignborn men women responsible 44 60 national life expectancy improvements 2010 2017 immigrants experienced gains usborn experienced declines life expectancy nearly post2010 mortality stagnation adverse trends usborn immigrants children national life expectancy 2017 reduced 2003 levels findings demonstrate immigration acts bolster american life expectancy particularly valuable contributions prime working agespblockquote pi repeat striking excerptp blockquotepforeignborn male life expectancy exceeds swiss men world leaders male life expectancy life expectancy foreignborn women close japanese women world leaders female life expectancypblockquote pmany interesting results instance immigrants sure mighty strongly suspect selection big lifestyle implication health care system maybe isnt terrible hearing living generations screws people upp phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis2352827321001890 target_blankthe piecea arun s hendi jessica y ho excellent relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupbuyingthevote target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109immigrationtotheusiscorrelatedwithquitehighlifeexpectancyhtmlimmigration correlated high life expectancya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Podcast #165: Peter Boghossian on Why He Quit Portland State University

iframe width500 srchttpswebplayerwhooshkaacomplayerepisodeid902828themelightenablevolumetrueiframeheight190 height200iframeimg altpodcast 165 peter boghossian on why he quit portland state university srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109podcast2pngpgrievance studies hoaxster and philosophy professor peter boghossian tells emquilletteem podcast host jonathan kay why he could no longer continue waging his struggle for intellectual pluralism without first shaking off the ideological constraints of campus life   p

iframe width500 srchttpswebplayerwhooshkaacomplayerepisodeid902828themelightenablevolumetrueiframeheight190 height200iframeimg altpodcast 165 peter boghossian quit portland state university srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109podcast2pngpgrievance studies hoaxster philosophy professor peter boghossian tells emquilletteem podcast host jonathan kay longer continue waging struggle intellectual pluralism shaking ideological constraints campus life p

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Understanding the onset of hot streaks in careers

pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticless41467021254778 target_blankby lu liu etal in natureap blockquotepacross a range of creative domains individual careers are characterized by hot streaks which are bursts of highimpact works clustered together in close succession yet it remains unclear if there are any regularities underlying the beginning of hot streaks here we analyze career histories of artists film directors and scientists and develop deep learning and network science methods to build highdimensional representations of their creative outputs we find that across all three domains individuals tend to explore diverse styles or topics before their hot streak but become notably more focused after the hot streak begins crucially hot streaks appear to be associated with neither exploration nor exploitation behavior in isolation but a particular sequence of exploration followed by exploitation where the transition from exploration to exploitation closely traces the onset of a hot streak overall these results may have implications for identifying and nurturing talents across a wide range of creative domainspblockquote pfor the pointer i thank a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercom_alice_evans target_blankalice evansap p p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109understandingtheonsetofhotstreaksincareershtmlunderstanding the onset of hot streaks in careersa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticless41467021254778 target_blankby lu liu etal natureap blockquotepacross range creative domains individual careers characterized hot streaks bursts highimpact works clustered close succession remains unclear regularities underlying beginning hot streaks analyze career histories artists film directors scientists develop deep learning network science methods build highdimensional representations creative outputs find domains individuals tend explore diverse styles topics hot streak notably focused hot streak begins crucially hot streaks appear associated exploration exploitation behavior isolation particular sequence exploration followed exploitation transition exploration exploitation closely traces onset hot streak overall results implications identifying nurturing talents wide range creative domainspblockquote pfor pointer thank relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercom_alice_evans target_blankalice evansap pp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109understandingtheonsetofhotstreaksincareershtmlunderstanding onset hot streaks careersa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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The future of the American city: My long-read Q&A with Ed Glaeser

pstrongby james pethokoukis and ed glaeserstrongp pamericas cities have been hit hard by the covid19 pandemic fueling predictions of prolonged urban flight and decline cities are over we are being told but cities are hubs of productivity and opportunity that have endured plagues for thousands of years will americas cities survive the pandemic and whats in store for cities in the decades to come to answer these questions and more edward glaeser joined the political economy podcastp ped is the chairman of the department of economics at harvard university and coauthor with david cutler of a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationaememp diviframe srchttpsplayercaptivatefmepisode66696933b1194a84990582aeba67c515iframediv pwhat follows is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation you can download the episode a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgpodcastedglaeserhowcitiescanthriveinapostcovidage target_blankherea and dont forget to subscribe to my podcast on a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpspodcastsapplecomuspodcastpoliticaleconomypodcastid589914386mt2 target_blankitunesa or a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwstitchercompodcastricochetmoneypoliticswithjimpethokoukis target_blankstitchera tell your friends leave a review p pstrongpethokoukis at the worlds fairs in 1939 and 1964 both in new york there was a ride called the futurama ride and it gave visitors a glimpse of what america would look like in the near future and particularly the one at the 1964 worlds fair i think it was the most popular attraction gave the visitors a ride through what they call a city of tomorrow let me just briefly read from the narration because listeners love when i read of what they said the city of tomorrow would look likestrongp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongplazas of urban living rise over freeways vehicles electronicallypaced travel routes are remarkably safe swift and efficient towering terminals serve sections of the city make public transportation more convenient provide ample space for private cars and from a lower level covered moving sidewalks radiate to shopping areas that are truly marketplaces of the world its traditions and faiths preserved there is a new beauty and new strengths in the city of tomorrowstrongpblockquote pstrongthat was 1964 by 1975 hollywood was making grimy movies about the decline of new york gerald ford didnt say it but there was the headline in new york drop dead were not going to bail you out of bankruptcy and were im going is this im sure youve been asked a lot and ive perhaps even asked are cities over because of the pandemic and thats really the wrong question cities can go very badly and not be over new york wasnt over even though things were very rough in the 70s and 80s and they came back detroit may seem over but theres still a detroit and hopefully it will also have a revival i want to ask you how can cities survive this pandemic and flourish going forwardstrongp pi think its great that you took us back to the great industrial designer norman bel geddes and the robert mosesled worlds fair of 1964 because in some sense that was a high point of optimism for the american city also for the integration of the car into the american city now what then happened in the 1970s was the collision of two things which have an eerie resemblance to today one of which was an increase in mobility of people who could take their cars and go out to the suburbs thanks to robert moses in part and the cars would be streamlined which is thanks in part to the industrial design of norman bel geddes and firms of course could relocate their factories to lower cost areas aided by the interstate highway system and so that mobility made it easier than ever to exitp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadunispherejpgx91208 classwpimage1008610117figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pat the same time a heightened awareness of urban inequities led city governments to think that they could treat their firms and their residents as a piggy bank that they could use to fund their progressive dreams that combination of political redistribution catering not to the mobile and talented but catering towards the most disadvantaged which has so much to like about it but when the talented are mobile they can just run away and thats indeed what they didp pand so new york was hemorrhaging industrial jobs i mean the largest industrial cluster in the united states in the 1950s was not automobile production in detroit it was garment production in new york city hundreds of thousands of those jobs disappeared overnight and then on top of that you had wealthier new yorkers who were leaving for the suburbs where they could get public schools that they liked better where the crime was lower and so this combination turned into a really difficult time for cities where it really seemed as if places like new york and boston and detroit and seattle for goodness sake were headed for the trash heap of history lets not forget two jokers put a billboard on the highway leaving seattle asking the last person to leave the city to please turn out the lights because no one could imagine a seattle with a smaller boeingp phow does that relate to today well there are two things that are going on right now that are important in cities one of which is the increased mobility made possible by telecommuting made possible by zoom thats not going to replace the office but perhaps for some of the most successful firms it makes it easier to imagine moving away on top of that you have the threat of illness and of course the fact that some cities seem like theyre on the verge of being taken over by progressive leadership who think that policing is a thing of the past and totally unnecessary who think that we should again be taxing the rich in order to deal with the problems of the poor now i believe very strongly that cities can do a better job with their policing i believe very strongly that cities can do a better job of making sure that they are places of opportunity and upward mobility but if they decide that theyre going to ignore the ability of the talented to exit none of thats going to happenp spanspan pstrongi started off by taking us back to the 1960s in the book you go back much further than that could you walk us through the history of what happens to urban areas that are hit by plagues going back to ancient athensstrongp psure why not go back to the plague of athens which is our first welldocumented urban plague thucydides one of the two fathers of history was actually there and described the plague so the backstory for this of course is that athens is doing all that you could possibly ask a city to be doing right its a place of unbelievable creativity where dense urban streets bring together people of unbelievable talent right the creators of philosophy the creators of drama the creators of architecture the creators of sculpture the people who gave us democracy themselves right there are these chains of collaborative creativity that can happen in cities and i cant think of any place that does that better than fifth century athensp pbut athens very success occasions the envy of its more rural neighbors sparta and so starting in 431bc the peloponnesian war begins now pericles the canny leader of athens democracy has a plan hes going to summon all the athenians behind the city walls which hes going to trust to protect the city from the spartan soldiers from the spartan hoplites and then he will take advantage of athens superiority at naval warfare to send out his ships to harass the coast of the peloponnesian peninsula where the spartans livep pso this strategy is perfectly sound militarily the walls hold up well against the hoplites but the walls cant keep out the disease that comes in through the port of piraeus and the disease wreaks absolute havoc perhaps killing a quarter of athens population and this highlights two great weaknesses that cities have when it comes to disease which is still true in 2020 cities are the nodes on the global lattice of trade and travel theyre always the ports of entry for goods for people for ideas and for diseases right and so it was with athens secondly diseases spread more quickly when people are close to one another rightp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadshipjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610118figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pthat doesnt necessarily mean that density is itself dangerous but certainly its really important to be able to isolate yourself from other people to stop the spread of disease my own estimate suggests that for every 10 percent reduction in trips in new york in 2020 there was a 20 percent reduction in covid cases during the months of april and may and so this really derailed athens success as a cityp pstrongathens didnt disappear but it was not this place where you saw this flowering of creativity and connectivitystrongp pabsolutely that was really gone and the plague of justinian which hit constantinople a thousand years later was if anything even more devastating that was the first appearance of the black death on european shores but they were devastating in part because they hit societies that were already in flux they hit societies that were already vulnerable for the last 650 years however mostly our cities have been pretty darn resilientp pand one of the epics that we detailed in the book is the 19th century which really shows city government at its best this is the moment in some sense when governments stop being killers you know if you think about what governments did in the centuries before 1800 they pretty much fought wars sometimes theyre defensive wars which you can justify certainly sometimes theyre offensive wars but theyre pretty much in the death business over the course of the 19th century city governments spent enormous sums on things like sewers and aqueducts in order to fight pandemic they built institutions they created incentives to induce people to connect to the network and they turned government into something that was far more benevolentp pit wasnt easy but it was an enormous epic in the history of government and change it really happened in response to disease and those investments made cities by 1920 almost as healthy as rural areas in fact over the last 30 years new york has had a life expectancy thats two to three years higher than the rest of the country and that of course happened because of these investments but that very much showed a pragmatic urban commitment to actually fighting these demons that come with density and not a tendency to fall into fractious disagreement or pitting one against anotherp pstrongin the past century a city like new york has developed better sanitation but its economy has become more about service the economy has become more dependent on face to face interactions is that something we need to be thinking about going forwardstrongp pits reminds us of just how economically vulnerable we are to this kind of pandemic you know if i take you back to the black deaths 1350 in europe the human catastrophe was absolutely devastating losing maybe a third of europes population but for the survivors they ended up being richer because in an agricultural economy having a higher ratio of land relative to people means wages go up that means the amount of food available goes up and so europe gets richer over the end of the 14th century because its population has shrunk and in some sense that extra wealth sets the stage for the urban renaissance of the 15th century the influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919 was a short sharp shock to the economy as francois velde of the chicago federal reserve board a hrefhttpspapersssrncomsol3paperscfmabstract_id3587634has illustrateda but it wasnt all that devastatingp pit didnt last in part because the demand for the industrial products that were the heart of this economy wouldnt disappear just because there was a plague but i mean no one thinks youre going to get a disease from an ice box a hundred years later however those industrial jobs have disappeared and been replaced by urban service sector jobs the one fifth of the employed labor force in 2019 that worked in leisure hospitality and retail trade and what happened was for millions and millions of american workers 32 million of them in fact the ability to provide service with a smile provided an employment safe haven when the factory jobs disappeared and yet that smile turns into a source of peril rather than pleasure in a time of pandemic and those jobs can disappear in a heartbeat which is exactly what we sawp pand so we proved to be incredibly vulnerable to the pandemic now of course we dealt with this with federal spending on an enormous scale i mean i remember a time when spending a couple of trillion dollars to fight a recession seemed like it was a pretty big deal apparently weve crossed that rubicon but it doesnt really dispel the fundamental weakness of our economy to this type of pandemic which i think is one of the reasons why our governments going forward really need to spend almost whatever it takes to make sure that this doesnt happen again to make sure that this pandemic is a onetime occurrencep pstrongeven without mentioning pandemics theres a lot to say about the problems facing american cities and we dont seem to be doing a lot of problem solving when it comes to housing costs inequality and congestion do westrongp pno thats right and that makes us weaker in response to the pandemic so ive got two chapters that focus on this one was focused specifically on the high cost of housing and the gentrification battles now i think there is an easy policy fix for this which is just to allow more housing to be built right and the narrative that i give is very much inspired by mancur olson which is in the us over the past 30 40 50 years we have allowed insiders to become increasingly empowered in lots of different ways right whether its occupational licensing or excess of business regulations my favorite example is housing if you go back to the 1960s if you owned a plot of land you were pretty much allowed to put up anything reasonable on itp p50 years later in lots of parts of coastal america pretty much all your neighbors have veto rights over anything you might want to do with that property and weve made this change in an incremental way community by community and weve imposed a giant web of housing regulations on the coastal parts of the country that radically restrict our ability to build new housing i mean new york stayed affordable in the 1920s because it built 100000 units a year because it was a city that still catered to outsiders now we have cities that cater only to insiders which may mean rich homeowners but this change in thinking which is that were going to protect people from any harm also means that if youre in a neighborhood youre losing out because your rents are going upp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadapartmentsjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610119figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pinstead of saying to yourself you know what really needs to happen we need to build more housing in los angeles as a whole which will stop my rent from going up you say oh i just dont want any strangers coming into my neighborhood right so it becomes even more insider oriented and we really need to remember that cities are at their best when they are providing opportunity for outsiders for people who are coming there without anything and real affordability does not mean some small number of special affordable units that have been allocated to the lucky few or a few people who have benefited by 30 years of rent control real affordability means that anyone can come to the city and rent an apartment at a reasonable price so i have one chapter about the closing of the metropolitan frontier and this triumph of insiders over outsiders and the battles over gentrification in los angeles but then the other two things we talk about specifically relate to limited upward mobility in cities which we think relate particularly to schoolsp pstronglet me jump back to housing for a second youve described a pretty simple solution which is build more we have an obvious problem and an econ 101 solution does the fact that were not building suggest that this is a problem that just cant be solved politically if we cant make our cities denser with more housing maybe we need to have more high productivity cities across the country what do you thinkstrongp pwell i think competition among cities has a lot to recommend itself i think historically thats how its worked in the us historically weve started new cities and in the sunbelt they have been oriented around new technologies cars in particular and have catered to outsiders i think thats part of what happens and there are still parts of america where you can still build but even there even in texas the past 10 years have been very heady days for texas real estate which doesnt mean that you cant still build on the edges of houston but the areas that are close to the city center whether or not its in austin or in dallasfort worth those places have become much more restricted and when texas starts to regulate i start getting scared so im not willing to just accept that were going to go to new places i think we do need to fight thisp pstrongmaybe des moines forget houston maybe des moines will be the new tech hubstrongp pyou know it really does create costs when you have these incredibly productive parts of america like silicon valley that have tiny amounts of new population growth because theyve decided to regulate out change theyve decided to regulate away new construction and consequently people end up locating in areas that are much less productive you know the work of peter ganong and danny shoag shows that prior to 1960 americans especially lower income americans typically moved to places with higher wages thats stopped over the last 50 years and thats a bad thing we really should continue this thing that people move to opportunity in americap pstrongand i cut you off before when we were talking about education and upward mobilitystrongp pso education and crime are the other two that i want to say something about i think we need to start with the humility to learn here ive been on the edges of the education reform movement for the last 20odd years lots of things have been tried lots of money has been spent and very little has moved in terms of the dial there are some charter schools that do amazing things and that movement should continue but i think its likely that were going to need new approaches one of the things that we push in the book is doing more experimental work with wraparound forms of education that essentially do an end run around the teachers union by providing after school weekend summer programs and vocational training and the beautiful thing about vocational training is because you know what youre trying to teach you can have real pay for performancep pso you can say basically if you dont train a functional plumber youre not getting paid and so you can competitively source it and you have to worry much less about micromanaging exactly what people are doing and youre trying to create a product that is far less amorphous than trying to train an american citizen so we can leave high schools to go about their business i mean ideally theyll improve as well but we can put a whole bunch of incremental money into training people with usable skills for the real job marketp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadplumberjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610120figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pstrongi liked how you described this lets say were going to spend vastly more in school were going to spend 100 billion dollars but we really dont know how to spend that 100 billion dollars in an effective way and thats why you were calling for an apollo program rather than a marshall plan a marshall plan suggests you know right where to put that money when they started the apollo program they didnt know exactly how to get to the moon in fact in that original speech kennedy spoke about all the innovation that was going to happen before we could get man on the moon and thats why you were calling your reform an apollo program which to me is about trial and error and experimentation and discovery rather than just from the beginning saying oh we know these are the programs we know need more fundingstrongp pabsolutely i mean humility is where you start on this i think thats absolutely critical now with cops i think i am more hopeful in part because unlike schools the functioning of police departments changed massively in our lifetimes and if we compare the 1980s when american cities seemed like they were completely lost to crime with most of the last 20 years its really been a huge difference and theres really been a revolution in public safety now that wasnt free it both required more spending and it also only occurred with the accompaniment of massive amounts of incarceration often of relatively minor offenses and in some cases police that have been far too brutal towards their citizens now going forward i think theres no way of getting around a dual mandate so the view that youre just going to defund the police and anything good is going to happen from that seems like absolute madness to mep pwe want our police to do more not less we want them to stop crime just as much tomorrow as we did yesterday but we also want them to make sure that they treat all the citizens with a reasonable modicum of respect with a reasonable amount of decency so that requires two things first of all you need to give police chiefs quantitative targets of what youre asking for in terms of this respect and decency now that means you probably need some form of regular customer surveys about how people are feeling about their relationship with the police and you need to hold police chiefs accountable for delivering a reasonable amount of customer satisfaction but if theres one thing i believe theres no such thing as a free lunch right and consequently youre not going to get the cops to do more by giving them less and police reform really requires a dual mandate and the resources that will empower police chiefs to get it donep pstrongas we approach the end i just want to circle back to the pandemic how do we make our cities and our society more resilient to the next pandemic and it seems the experts seem pretty confident theres going to be another one so how will we be better prepared next timestrongp pso i think this is something that the city governments cant do everything about cops or even schools can be done at the state or even the local level but in order to pandemicproof our world we really need national and international action and the idea that my coauthor david cutler who is a health economist and i pushed forward is something that we call nato for health with the idea that this really requires global cooperation and global investments in things like preemptive vaccines global surveillance and this means you need an organization which is far less unwieldy than the who hence nato a small number of committed countries theyre actually ready to put dollars on the table its going to be run by people with scientific expertise and its going to be willing to make decisions that are not necessarily politically acceptable to everyonep pand we think that on top of that weve got to be open for something of a grand bargain around foreign aid so youve got to worry or you should worry that the low level of sanitary infrastructure in many developing world cities is making possible the rise of antibioticresistant superbugs now one way to deal with that is to invest more in pipes to invest more in sewers to invest more in aqueducts and the west can fund some of that it wouldnt be a huge amount of spending but we could fund some of that but there should be a quid pro quo which is that if theyre going to be part of this then they need to agree to surveillance they need to make sure that new diseases that are popping up are being dealt with and on top of that they have to agree to more sanitary rules separation between humans and animals for example wild animals in particularp pand so we think this giant health quid pro quo can be part of the glue that ties nato for health together and of course nato for health unlike the who needs to be willing to shut borders when theres a real risk of something spreading so much quicker than we currently saw for covid19 thats one example of the kind of international investment that we need but in some sense the larger message is this was a really catastrophic thing for the world but we had warning signs we had warning signs of mini outbreaks that occurred sars mers ebola in the past 20 years lets not ignore this warning sign lets make sure that this is at the top of the national and global priority list going forwardp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadcommutersjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610121figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pstronglet me end with this if new york on the 60th anniversary of that 1964 worlds fair were to have another one america doesnt do worlds fairs anymore but if there was a 2024 worlds fair and they had another futurama exhibit and you were asked to advise them on what their new future exhibit would look like what their new city of tomorrow exhibit look like what sort of insights or advice or foresight would you give them about what a city can look like a generation from nowstrongp pin 1964 we were very focused on physical technology particularly mobility right and mobility can get better in cities but its not really what its about what its about is a city thats more open for outsiders and that means less regulation of entrepreneurship as i have often said its an outrage that we regulate the entrepreneurship of the rich which often takes place in cyberspace so much more lightly than we regulate the entrepreneurship of the poor which takes place on the groundp pso my city of the future would be one in which any new entrepreneur can come and get themselves a permit within a week at a relatively low cost with the help of a centralized permitting office my city of the future will be one in which people think that cities have educational programs that are the best in the worldp pin fact far from fleeing from the city to get better schools you would come to the city and say boy look at this amazing computer programming thing thats going on here look how nimbly the city is able to provide lots of different things to enable you to adapt to changing circumstances and it would be a city that actually really does a great job of empowering people it would be a city that has lots of innovation in housing so the physical landscape changes although some many buildings may be kept as memories of the past it changes in a way that provides affordable space for ordinary people to come in that might mean massproduced high rise dwellings that are made somewhere else and then plopped into space quickly and they could be perfectly attractivep pand finally there are going to be cities in which weve figured out sensible policies whether or not its congestion pricing or nato for health to do with the downsides of density so we figured out how to make it so that people could move through the cities quickly not necessarily by building more highways as we imagined 1964 but by figuring out smart sets of incentives to get people to use mobility in a wise way and weve also built in a way that enables people to use at least my favorite form of urban mobility to walk to work and i guess ill end on that which is my favorite cities are archipelagos of different neighborhoods places where people have lots of different choices about where they can live and for me at least my favorite neighborhoods are ones in which walking is really paramount so i would hope that would be part of our futurama looking forwardp pstrongmy guest today has been ed glaeser he and david cutler are the authors of a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationa available now ed thanks for coming on the podcaststrongp pthank you jamesp pemjames pethokoukis is the dewitt wallace fellow at the american enterprise institute where he writes and edits the aeideas blog and hosts a weekly podcast a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgtagpoliticaleconomypodcast target_blankpolitical economy with james pethokoukisa ed glaeser is the chairman of the department of economics at harvard universityemp divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsshouldgovernmentcreatemoresiliconvalleysmylongreadqawithnicholasbloomshould government create more silicon valleys my longread qampa with nicholas blooma a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicstheeconomyofouterspacemylongreadqawithjohnrothrichbolingmikegoldmatthewweinzierlthe economy of outer space my longread qampa with john roth rich boling mike gold amp matthew weinzierla a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsunderstandingjeffbezosandamazonmylongreadqawithbradstoneunderstanding jeff bezos and amazon my longread qampa with brad stoneapdiv pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsthefutureoftheamericancitymylongreadqawithedglaeserthe future of the american city my longread qampa with ed glaesera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

pstrongby james pethokoukis ed glaeserstrongp pamericas cities hit hard covid19 pandemic fueling predictions prolonged urban flight decline cities told cities hubs productivity opportunity endured plagues thousands years americas cities survive pandemic whats store cities decades come answer questions edward glaeser joined political economy podcastp ped chairman department economics harvard university coauthor david cutler hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival city living thriving age isolationaememp diviframe srchttpsplayercaptivatefmepisode66696933b1194a84990582aeba67c515iframediv pwhat follows lightly edited transcript conversation download episodea relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgpodcastedglaeserhowcitiescanthriveinapostcovidage target_blankherea dont forget subscribe podcast ona relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpspodcastsapplecomuspodcastpoliticaleconomypodcastid589914386mt2 target_blankitunesaora relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwstitchercompodcastricochetmoneypoliticswithjimpethokoukis target_blankstitchera tell friends leave review p pstrongpethokoukis worlds fairs 1939 1964 new york ride called futurama ride gave visitors glimpse america look like near future particularly 1964 worlds fair think popular attraction gave visitors ride city tomorrow let briefly read narration listeners love read said city tomorrow look likestrongp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongplazas urban living rise freeways vehicles electronicallypaced travel routes remarkably safe swift efficient towering terminals serve sections city public transportation convenient provide ample space private cars lower level covered moving sidewalks radiate shopping areas truly marketplaces world traditions faiths preserved new beauty new strengths city tomorrowstrongpblockquote pstrongthat 1964 1975 hollywood making grimy movies decline new york gerald ford didnt headline new york drop dead going bail bankruptcy im going im sure youve asked lot ive asked cities pandemic thats wrong question cities badly new york wasnt things rough 70s 80s came detroit theres detroit hopefully revival want ask cities survive pandemic flourish going forwardstrongp pi think great took great industrial designer norman bel geddes robert mosesled worlds fair 1964 sense high point optimism american city integration car american city happened 1970s collision things eerie resemblance today increase mobility people cars suburbs thanks robert moses cars streamlined thanks industrial design norman bel geddes firms course relocate factories lower cost areas aided interstate highway system mobility easier exitp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadunispherejpgx91208 classwpimage1008610117figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pat time heightened awareness urban inequities led city governments think treat firms residents piggy bank use fund progressive dreams combination political redistribution catering mobile talented catering disadvantaged like talented mobile run away thats didp pand new york hemorrhaging industrial jobs mean largest industrial cluster united states 1950s automobile production detroit garment production new york city hundreds thousands jobs disappeared overnight wealthier new yorkers leaving suburbs public schools liked better crime lower combination turned difficult time cities places like new york boston detroit seattle goodness sake headed trash heap history lets forget jokers billboard highway leaving seattle asking person leave city turn lights imagine seattle smaller boeingp phow relate today things going right important cities increased mobility possible telecommuting possible zoom thats going replace office successful firms makes easier imagine moving away threat illness course fact cities like theyre verge taken progressive leadership think policing thing past totally unnecessary think taxing rich order deal problems poor believe strongly cities better job policing believe strongly cities better job making sure places opportunity upward mobility decide theyre going ignore ability talented exit thats going happenp spanspan pstrongi started taking 1960s book walk history happens urban areas hit plagues going ancient athensstrongp psure plague athens welldocumented urban plague thucydides fathers history actually described plague backstory course athens possibly ask city right place unbelievable creativity dense urban streets bring people unbelievable talent right creators philosophy creators drama creators architecture creators sculpture people gave democracy right chains collaborative creativity happen cities cant think place better fifth century athensp pbut athens success occasions envy rural neighbors sparta starting 431bc peloponnesian war begins pericles canny leader athens democracy plan hes going summon athenians city walls hes going trust protect city spartan soldiers spartan hoplites advantage athens superiority naval warfare send ships harass coast peloponnesian peninsula spartans livep pso strategy perfectly sound militarily walls hold hoplites walls cant disease comes port piraeus disease wreaks absolute havoc killing quarter athens population highlights great weaknesses cities comes disease true 2020 cities nodes global lattice trade travel theyre ports entry goods people ideas diseases right athens secondly diseases spread quickly people close rightp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadshipjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610118figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pthat doesnt necessarily mean density dangerous certainly important able isolate people stop spread disease estimate suggests 10 percent reduction trips new york 2020 20 percent reduction covid cases months april derailed athens success cityp pstrongathens didnt disappear place saw flowering creativity connectivitystrongp pabsolutely gone plague justinian hit constantinople thousand years later devastating appearance black death european shores devastating hit societies flux hit societies vulnerable 650 years cities pretty darn resilientp pand epics detailed book 19th century shows city government best moment sense governments stop killers know think governments centuries 1800 pretty fought wars theyre defensive wars justify certainly theyre offensive wars theyre pretty death business course 19th century city governments spent enormous sums things like sewers aqueducts order fight pandemic built institutions created incentives induce people connect network turned government far benevolentp pit wasnt easy enormous epic history government change happened response disease investments cities 1920 healthy rural areas fact 30 years new york life expectancy thats years higher rest country course happened investments showed pragmatic urban commitment actually fighting demons come density tendency fall fractious disagreement pitting anotherp pstrongin past century city like new york developed better sanitation economy service economy dependent face face interactions need thinking going forwardstrongp pits reminds economically vulnerable kind pandemic know black deaths 1350 europe human catastrophe absolutely devastating losing maybe europes population survivors ended richer agricultural economy having higher ratio land relative people means wages means food available goes europe gets richer end 14th century population shrunk sense extra wealth sets stage urban renaissance 15th century influenza pandemic 1918 1919 short sharp shock economy francois velde chicago federal reserve board hrefhttpspapersssrncomsol3paperscfmabstract_id3587634has illustrateda wasnt devastatingp pit didnt demand industrial products heart economy wouldnt disappear plague mean thinks youre going disease ice box years later industrial jobs disappeared replaced urban service sector jobs fifth employed labor force 2019 worked leisure hospitality retail trade happened millions millions american workers 32 million fact ability provide service smile provided employment safe haven factory jobs disappeared smile turns source peril pleasure time pandemic jobs disappear heartbeat exactly sawp pand proved incredibly vulnerable pandemic course dealt federal spending enormous scale mean remember time spending couple trillion dollars fight recession like pretty big deal apparently weve crossed rubicon doesnt dispel fundamental weakness economy type pandemic think reasons governments going forward need spend takes sure doesnt happen sure pandemic onetime occurrencep pstrongeven mentioning pandemics theres lot problems facing american cities dont lot problem solving comes housing costs inequality congestion westrongp pno thats right makes weaker response pandemic ive got chapters focus focused specifically high cost housing gentrification battles think easy policy fix allow housing built right narrative inspired mancur olson past 30 40 50 years allowed insiders increasingly empowered lots different ways right occupational licensing excess business regulations favorite example housing 1960s owned plot land pretty allowed reasonable itp p50 years later lots parts coastal america pretty neighbors veto rights want property weve change incremental way community community weve imposed giant web housing regulations coastal parts country radically restrict ability build new housing mean new york stayed affordable 1920s built 100000 units year city catered outsiders cities cater insiders mean rich homeowners change thinking going protect people harm means youre neighborhood youre losing rents going upp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadapartmentsjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610119figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pinstead saying know needs happen need build housing los angeles stop rent going oh dont want strangers coming neighborhood right insider oriented need remember cities best providing opportunity outsiders people coming real affordability mean small number special affordable units allocated lucky people benefited 30 years rent control real affordability means come city rent apartment reasonable price chapter closing metropolitan frontier triumph insiders outsiders battles gentrification los angeles things talk specifically relate limited upward mobility cities think relate particularly schoolsp pstronglet jump housing second youve described pretty simple solution build obvious problem econ 101 solution fact building suggest problem cant solved politically cant cities denser housing maybe need high productivity cities country thinkstrongp pwell think competition cities lot recommend think historically thats worked historically weve started new cities sunbelt oriented new technologies cars particular catered outsiders think thats happens parts america build texas past 10 years heady days texas real estate doesnt mean cant build edges houston areas close city center austin dallasfort worth places restricted texas starts regulate start getting scared im willing accept going new places think need fight thisp pstrongmaybe des moines forget houston maybe des moines new tech hubstrongp pyou know create costs incredibly productive parts america like silicon valley tiny amounts new population growth theyve decided regulate change theyve decided regulate away new construction consequently people end locating areas productive know work peter ganong danny shoag shows prior 1960 americans especially lower income americans typically moved places higher wages thats stopped 50 years thats bad thing continue thing people opportunity americap pstrongand cut talking education upward mobilitystrongp pso education crime want think need start humility learn ive edges education reform movement 20odd years lots things tried lots money spent little moved terms dial charter schools amazing things movement continue think likely going need new approaches things push book experimental work wraparound forms education essentially end run teachers union providing school weekend summer programs vocational training beautiful thing vocational training know youre trying teach real pay performancep pso basically dont train functional plumber youre getting paid competitively source worry micromanaging exactly people youre trying create product far amorphous trying train american citizen leave high schools business mean ideally theyll improve bunch incremental money training people usable skills real job marketp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadplumberjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610120figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pstrongi liked described lets going spend vastly school going spend 100 billion dollars dont know spend 100 billion dollars effective way thats calling apollo program marshall plan marshall plan suggests know right money started apollo program didnt know exactly moon fact original speech kennedy spoke innovation going happen man moon thats calling reform apollo program trial error experimentation discovery beginning saying oh know programs know need fundingstrongp pabsolutely mean humility start think thats absolutely critical cops think hopeful unlike schools functioning police departments changed massively lifetimes compare 1980s american cities like completely lost crime 20 years huge difference theres revolution public safety wasnt free required spending occurred accompaniment massive amounts incarceration relatively minor offenses cases police far brutal citizens going forward think theres way getting dual mandate view youre going defund police good going happen like absolute madness mep pwe want police want stop crime tomorrow yesterday want sure treat citizens reasonable modicum respect reasonable decency requires things need police chiefs quantitative targets youre asking terms respect decency means probably need form regular customer surveys people feeling relationship police need hold police chiefs accountable delivering reasonable customer satisfaction theres thing believe theres thing free lunch right consequently youre going cops giving police reform requires dual mandate resources empower police chiefs donep pstrongas approach end want circle pandemic cities society resilient pandemic experts pretty confident theres going better prepared timestrongp pso think city governments cant cops schools state local level order pandemicproof world need national international action idea coauthor david cutler health economist pushed forward nato health idea requires global cooperation global investments things like preemptive vaccines global surveillance means need organization far unwieldy nato small number committed countries theyre actually ready dollars table going run people scientific expertise going willing decisions necessarily politically acceptable everyonep pand think weve got open grand bargain foreign aid youve got worry worry low level sanitary infrastructure developing world cities making possible rise antibioticresistant superbugs way deal invest pipes invest sewers invest aqueducts west fund wouldnt huge spending fund quid pro quo theyre going need agree surveillance need sure new diseases popping dealt agree sanitary rules separation humans animals example wild animals particularp pand think giant health quid pro quo glue ties nato health course nato health unlike needs willing shut borders theres real risk spreading quicker currently saw covid19 thats example kind international investment need sense larger message catastrophic thing world warning signs warning signs mini outbreaks occurred sars mers ebola past 20 years lets ignore warning sign lets sure national global priority list going forwardp figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeserlongreadcommutersjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610121figcaptionvia twenty20figcaptionfigure pstronglet end new york 60th anniversary 1964 worlds fair america doesnt worlds fairs anymore 2024 worlds fair futurama exhibit asked advise new future exhibit look like new city tomorrow exhibit look like sort insights advice foresight city look like generation nowstrongp pin 1964 focused physical technology particularly mobility right mobility better cities city thats open outsiders means regulation entrepreneurship said outrage regulate entrepreneurship rich takes place cyberspace lightly regulate entrepreneurship poor takes place groundp pso city future new entrepreneur come permit week relatively low cost help centralized permitting office city future people think cities educational programs best worldp pin fact far fleeing city better schools come city boy look amazing computer programming thing thats going look nimbly city able provide lots different things enable adapt changing circumstances city actually great job empowering people city lots innovation housing physical landscape changes buildings kept memories past changes way provides affordable space ordinary people come mean massproduced high rise dwellings plopped space quickly perfectly attractivep pand finally going cities weve figured sensible policies congestion pricing nato health downsides density figured people cities quickly necessarily building highways imagined 1964 figuring smart sets incentives people use mobility wise way weve built way enables people use favorite form urban mobility walk work guess ill end favorite cities archipelagos different neighborhoods places people lots different choices live favorite neighborhoods ones walking paramount hope futurama looking forwardp pstrongmy guest today ed glaeser david cutler authors hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival city living thriving age isolationa available ed thanks coming podcaststrongp pthank jamesp pemjames pethokoukis dewitt wallace fellow american enterprise institute writes edits aeideas blog hosts weekly podcast relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgtagpoliticaleconomypodcast target_blankpolitical economy james pethokoukisa ed glaeser chairman department economics harvard universityemp divpstronglearn stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsshouldgovernmentcreatemoresiliconvalleysmylongreadqawithnicholasbloomshould government create silicon valleys longread qampa nicholas blooma hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicstheeconomyofouterspacemylongreadqawithjohnrothrichbolingmikegoldmatthewweinzierlthe economy outer space longread qampa john roth rich boling mike gold amp matthew weinzierla hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsunderstandingjeffbezosandamazonmylongreadqawithbradstoneunderstanding jeff bezos amazon longread qampa brad stoneapdiv pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsthefutureoftheamericancitymylongreadqawithedglaeserthe future american city longread qampa ed glaesera appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

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Derry notes, Northern Ireland’s second largest city

ppeople in derry are still talking about the 1680sit is bad to be a a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikirobert_lundy target_blanklundya namely a traitor to your cause but the bar here has become a high one  you are either with them or against themp pthe 17th century city wall seems fully intact the buildings are splendid and the green wet and hilly natural setting is a perfect fit  the town is long on history short on things to do  it is perfect for a twoday tripp pi witnessed a loyalist parade the men were not feminized nor did they seem happy it is now emso muchem common knowledge that britain really does not care about them  so what is their future and with whom  given differential birthrates catholics seem headed to become a majority in ni as wellp pmost of the city centre is catholic and unlike belfast it is not difficult to imagine derry rather easily being swallowed up by the republic of ireland some of which even lies to the north of derryp pi went to see where a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikibloody_sunday_1972 target_blankbloody sundaya occurred in 1972 and it shocked me how small the contested territory iswas  it feels as if you can count each and every home and ones mind starts wandering to the coase theorem and hong kong real estate billionaires and special enterprise zonesp preal estate in northern ireland seems dramatically underpriced though along a thirtyyear rather than a tenyear time horizon  but should you buy closer to belfastp pin some ways derry reminded me of parts of west virginia including the scotsirish faces the bygone glories and also the every family has an addiction signs in the center of townp pone hundred years ago in 1921 who would have thought that joining with the irish republic would lead to more prosperity than joining with britain  therein lies a cautionary note for us allp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109derrynotesnorthernirelandssecondlargestcityhtmlderry notes northern irelands second largest citya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

ppeople derry talking 1680sit bad relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikirobert_lundy target_blanklundya traitor cause bar high themp pthe 17th century city wall fully intact buildings splendid green wet hilly natural setting perfect fit town long history short things perfect twoday tripp pi witnessed loyalist parade men feminized happy emso muchem common knowledge britain care future given differential birthrates catholics headed majority ni wellp pmost city centre catholic unlike belfast difficult imagine derry easily swallowed republic ireland lies north derryp pi went relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikibloody_sunday_1972 target_blankbloody sundaya occurred 1972 shocked small contested territory iswas feels count home ones mind starts wandering coase theorem hong kong real estate billionaires special enterprise zonesp preal estate northern ireland dramatically underpriced thirtyyear tenyear time horizon buy closer belfastp pin ways derry reminded parts west virginia including scotsirish faces bygone glories family addiction signs center townp pone years ago 1921 thought joining irish republic lead prosperity joining britain lies cautionary note allp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109derrynotesnorthernirelandssecondlargestcityhtmlderry notes northern irelands second largest citya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Are the deep fundamentals of the US economy actually pretty strong?

pstrongby james pethokoukisstrongp psome pessimists write off the rising american stock market the sampp 500 is up 20 percent so far this year as reflecting little more than easy money dont fight the fed now im not going to give a definitive answer as to why the stock market does this or that but what if wall streets strong performance is suggesting the us economy has some deep strengths that too many overlook if nothing else this bull run gives us reason to examine some of those economic positivesp pif you were going to fashion a critique of the us economy the boilerplate bullet points would highlight supposed flaws such as too little dynamism too much parochialism and a continuing trend toward monopoly a sharp analysis in the economist a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwweconomistcombusinessisamericaincgettinglessdynamiclessglobalandmoremonopolistic21804757utm_sourcepocket_mylist target_blankoffersa a counterpoint to this thesis that everybody knows is true but it might not bep pfirst the economy seems to be getting more dynamic more businesses are being started more people are willing to quit their jobs and more and more unicorns startups with a valuation of 1 billion or more are popping into existencep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpslh4googleusercontentcom3hjwouznp0kfmzwqtdibiqv32l9p8mwnfkaq_9tej2e3y59vpudosllijttixe1hbrnl_0yk4482hmclcfiyretkahxjuqfz8icacwzdr2plkzjcvxuvh4aktpl90y9x4l_wks0figure pas an aside heres what university of maryland economist john haltiwanger whos quoted in the economist piece told me in july during a a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicshowhasthepandemicaffectedamericanentrepreneurshipmylongreadqawithjohnhaltiwanger target_blankpodcast chata so the question is whether the businesses that started last summer were the necessitytransitory kind that took advantage of the fact that there were lots of pandemicrelated needs in the economy and whether the businesses this spring are a little bit more forwardlooking and will maybe even persist a little longer we dont have any evidence to determine the answer at this pointp psecond despite the protectionist swerve in american trade policy lots in the business world has stayed steady the piece notes that the ratio of total manufactured goods imported from key trading partners versus us manufacturing output hasnt budged over the past three years and while some us companies are serious about shifting operations from china their nextchoice destinations are countries near china not america whats more foreign consumers are still pretty important to corporate america overall the median firms [nonfinancial firms in the russell 3000] foreign sales as a share of its total sales has stayed roughly flat at 15 percent so has the revenueweighted average which has oscillated around 35 percent two in five firms make more than half of their sales overseas a proportion that has also remained more or less constant in the past four yearsp pthe economist also offers a corrective to concerns about market concentration fun fact although concentration edged up in around half of industries between 2012 and 2017 the weightedaverage market share across all industries remained at 32 percent but lets focus on big tech since so much of washington and the media dop blockquote classwpblockquotepbig tech in particular has benefited from the pandemic shift to all things digital americas five technology titans apple microsoft alphabet amazon and facebook notched up combined revenues of 13trn in the past 12 months 43 percent higher than in 2019 they are americas five most valuable firms accounting for 16 percent of the countrys entire stockmarket value considerably higher than the 10 percent attributable to the five biggest american firms in the past 50 years according to calculations by thomas philippon of new york universitys stern school of businesspp  [but] the tech giants for example are increasingly stomping on each others turf nearly twofifths of the revenues of the big five now come from areas where their businesses overlap up from a fifth in 2015 facebook wants to become an emerchant amazon is getting into online advertising google and microsoft are challenging amazon in the computing cloud and apple is reportedly building a search enginepblockquote pand if even big tech companies stay dominant in their core businesses competition researcher nicolas petit a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsarebigtechfirmsmonopoliesmylongreadqawithnicolaspetit target_blankarguesa that they are in holistic competition with each other across a variety of industries such as cloud computing autonomous driving and virtual reality devices they also compete aggressively for talent then theres all that rampd spending they do spending driven not just to raise future profits but to avoid being disrupted or displaced by new technologies theyre all looking for the next big market or transformational technology not the kind of behavior one would expect to see from sedate monopolistsp pnone of this means there isnt plenty of public policy work to do to create a more productive economy that works for americans but maybe a bit less work than many might thinkp divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsuseconomyisbeingunderminedbysupplysidestrugglesus economy is being undermined by supplyside strugglesa a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsinnovationisimportantevenmorethanyouthinkinnovation is important even more than you thinka a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons to use newroaring20s unironicallyapdiv pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsarethedeepfundamentalsoftheuseconomyactuallyprettystrongare the deep fundamentals of the us economy actually pretty stronga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

pstrongby james pethokoukisstrongp psome pessimists write rising american stock market sampp 500 20 percent far year reflecting little easy money dont fight fed im going definitive answer stock market wall streets strong performance suggesting economy deep strengths overlook bull run gives reason examine economic positivesp pif going fashion critique economy boilerplate bullet points highlight supposed flaws little dynamism parochialism continuing trend monopoly sharp analysis economist relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwweconomistcombusinessisamericaincgettinglessdynamiclessglobalandmoremonopolistic21804757utm_sourcepocket_mylist target_blankoffersa counterpoint thesis everybody knows true bep pfirst economy getting dynamic businesses started people willing quit jobs unicorns startups valuation 1 billion popping existencep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpslh4googleusercontentcom3hjwouznp0kfmzwqtdibiqv32l9p8mwnfkaq_9tej2e3y59vpudosllijttixe1hbrnl_0yk4482hmclcfiyretkahxjuqfz8icacwzdr2plkzjcvxuvh4aktpl90y9x4l_wks0figure pas aside heres university maryland economist john haltiwanger whos quoted economist piece told july relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicshowhasthepandemicaffectedamericanentrepreneurshipmylongreadqawithjohnhaltiwanger target_blankpodcast chata question businesses started summer necessitytransitory kind took advantage fact lots pandemicrelated needs economy businesses spring little bit forwardlooking maybe persist little longer dont evidence determine answer pointp psecond despite protectionist swerve american trade policy lots business world stayed steady piece notes ratio total manufactured goods imported key trading partners versus manufacturing output hasnt budged past years companies shifting operations china nextchoice destinations countries near china america whats foreign consumers pretty important corporate america overall median firms [nonfinancial firms russell 3000] foreign sales share total sales stayed roughly flat 15 percent revenueweighted average oscillated 35 percent firms half sales overseas proportion remained constant past yearsp pthe economist offers corrective concerns market concentration fun fact concentration edged half industries 2012 2017 weightedaverage market share industries remained 32 percent lets focus big tech washington media dop blockquote classwpblockquotepbig tech particular benefited pandemic shift things digital americas technology titans apple microsoft alphabet amazon facebook notched combined revenues 13trn past 12 months 43 percent higher 2019 americas valuable firms accounting 16 percent countrys entire stockmarket value considerably higher 10 percent attributable biggest american firms past 50 years according calculations thomas philippon new york universitys stern school businesspp [but] tech giants example increasingly stomping turf nearly twofifths revenues big come areas businesses overlap fifth 2015 facebook wants emerchant amazon getting online advertising google microsoft challenging amazon computing cloud apple reportedly building search enginepblockquote pand big tech companies stay dominant core businesses competition researcher nicolas petit relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsarebigtechfirmsmonopoliesmylongreadqawithnicolaspetit target_blankarguesa holistic competition variety industries cloud computing autonomous driving virtual reality devices compete aggressively talent theres rampd spending spending driven raise future profits avoid disrupted displaced new technologies theyre looking big market transformational technology kind behavior expect sedate monopolistsp pnone means isnt plenty public policy work create productive economy works americans maybe bit work thinkp divpstronglearn stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsuseconomyisbeingunderminedbysupplysidestrugglesus economy undermined supplyside strugglesa hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsinnovationisimportantevenmorethanyouthinkinnovation important thinka hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons use newroaring20s unironicallyapdiv pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsarethedeepfundamentalsoftheuseconomyactuallyprettystrongare deep fundamentals economy actually pretty stronga appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

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What’s the Right Dose for Boosters?

blockquotepthe biden administration says a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwmedpagetodaycominfectiousdiseasecovid19vaccine94098 target_blankbooster shots are cominga but the fda hasnt decided on the dose moderna wants a a relnoopener hrefhttpsinvestorsmodernatxcomnewsreleasesnewsreleasedetailsmodernaannouncessubmissioninitialdatausfdaitscovid19 target_blankhalfshot boostera pfizer a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwglobenewswirecomnewsrelease2021082522865590enpfizerandbiontechinitiaterollingsubmissionofsupplementalbiologicslicenseapplicationtousfdaforboosterdoseofcomirnatyinindividuals16andolderhtml target_blankfull shota but could the best dose for americans and for the world be even lessp pcovid19 vaccines are the first successful use of mrna vaccine technology so a lot remains unknown but identifying the smallest dose needed to provide effective boosting is critical to protect americans from adverse effects increase confidence in vaccines and mitigate global vaccine inequityp pweve known since earlier this year that a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis0264410x21001535via3dihub target_blankhalfdose of the moderna vaccinea produces antibody levels similar to the standarddose and newer information suggests that even a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwmedrxivorgcontent1011012021063021259787v1 target_blankquarterdose vaccinea may do the same if a half or quarter dose is nearly as effective as a standard dose for first and second shots then a full dose booster may well be an overdose the essential task of a booster is to jog the immune systems memory of what its supposed to fight data from the world of hepatitis b suggest that the reminder need not be as intense as the initial lesson and in the cases of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis0264410x17301202via3dihub target_blanktuberculosisa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc2584372 target_blankmeningitisa and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc4223624 target_blankyellow fevera vaccines lower doses have been as good or better than the originalsp plower doses could also reduce risks of adverse effectspblockquote pthats myself and physicians spangarth strohbehnspan and william f parker on the a hrefhttpswwwmedpagetodaycomopinionsecondopinions94500trwnomed page todaya strohbehn is an oncologist and specialist in optimizing doses for cancer drugs william parker is a pulmonologist and professor of medicine at the university of chicagop pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whatstherightdoseforboostershtmlwhats the right dose for boostersa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepthe biden administration says relnoopener hrefhttpswwwmedpagetodaycominfectiousdiseasecovid19vaccine94098 target_blankbooster shots cominga fda hasnt decided dose moderna wants relnoopener hrefhttpsinvestorsmodernatxcomnewsreleasesnewsreleasedetailsmodernaannouncessubmissioninitialdatausfdaitscovid19 target_blankhalfshot boostera pfizer relnoopener hrefhttpswwwglobenewswirecomnewsrelease2021082522865590enpfizerandbiontechinitiaterollingsubmissionofsupplementalbiologicslicenseapplicationtousfdaforboosterdoseofcomirnatyinindividuals16andolderhtml target_blankfull shota best dose americans world lessp pcovid19 vaccines successful use mrna vaccine technology lot remains unknown identifying smallest dose needed provide effective boosting critical protect americans adverse effects increase confidence vaccines mitigate global vaccine inequityp pweve known earlier year relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis0264410x21001535via3dihub target_blankhalfdose moderna vaccinea produces antibody levels similar standarddose newer information suggests relnoopener hrefhttpswwwmedrxivorgcontent1011012021063021259787v1 target_blankquarterdose vaccinea half quarter dose nearly effective standard dose second shots dose booster overdose essential task booster jog immune systems memory supposed fight data world hepatitis b suggest reminder need intense initial lesson cases relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsciencedirectcomsciencearticlepiis0264410x17301202via3dihub target_blanktuberculosisa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc2584372 target_blankmeningitisa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc4223624 target_blankyellow fevera vaccines lower doses good better originalsp plower doses reduce risks adverse effectspblockquote pthats physicians spangarth strohbehnspan william f parker hrefhttpswwwmedpagetodaycomopinionsecondopinions94500trwnomed page todaya strohbehn oncologist specialist optimizing doses cancer drugs william parker pulmonologist professor medicine university chicagop pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whatstherightdoseforboostershtmlwhats right dose boostersa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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China campaign of the day

blockquotepbut a shift in investor sentiment suggests the days of chinas youth going under the knife in pursuit of perfection might be numbered as president xi jinping tries to reshape the countrys cultural and business landscape as part of a common prosperity drive sp pince the start of july the market value of the countrys three biggest publicly traded medical aesthetics companies has fallen by a third representing a collective loss of more than 17bn despite the popularity of cosmetic procedures investment bank citic estimated sales revenues in chinas aesthetic medicine market were more than rmb330bn 51bn in 2020p pbut analysts warn that the industry could suffer a heavy blow if beijing concludes that the sectors negative social influence is on a par with private tutoring and online gaming industries where strict regulations have crushed the market values of dominant groups in recent monthsp pit is perfectly possible we may see another industry disappear said mark tanner managing director of china skinny a marketing companypblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontentb3a91ec02ce64b59bb11779eecfd440f target_blankmore from the ftap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109chinacampaignoftheday2htmlchina campaign of the daya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepbut shift investor sentiment suggests days chinas youth going knife pursuit perfection numbered president xi jinping tries reshape countrys cultural business landscape common prosperity drive sp pince start july market value countrys biggest publicly traded medical aesthetics companies fallen representing collective loss 17bn despite popularity cosmetic procedures investment bank citic estimated sales revenues chinas aesthetic medicine market rmb330bn 51bn 2020p pbut analysts warn industry suffer heavy blow beijing concludes sectors negative social influence par private tutoring online gaming industries strict regulations crushed market values dominant groups recent monthsp pit perfectly possible industry disappear said mark tanner managing director china skinny marketing companypblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontentb3a91ec02ce64b59bb11779eecfd440f target_blankmore ftap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109chinacampaignoftheday2htmlchina campaign daya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Covid and intertemporal substitution

pthat is the topic of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20210914seeminglyirrationalcovidbehaviorcanbeexplainedbyeconomicssrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna here is one bitp blockquotepbefore the vaccines came along it made great sense to enforce masking norms if infections could be shifted into the future an eventually vaccinated citizenry would be much better protectedp pthere is a less obvious corollary those same mask norms make less sense when large numbers of people are vaccinated masking still will push infections further into the future but if the vaccines become marginally less effective over time as some a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210723sciencecovidvaccineisraelpfizerhtml target_blankdataa suggest people may be slightly worse off later on theyll also be a bit older the upshot is that the case for masking is less strong even if you still think it is a good idea overallp pstill many people prefer to abide by fixed rules and principles once they learn them and lecture others about them they are unlikely to change their minds masking is good is a simple precept exactly how good masking is depends on how much safer the near future will be is not yet the latter statement is how the economist is trained to thinkp blockquote pand thisp blockquote psome of the consequences of intertemporal substitution are a bit ghastly and you wont find many people willing to even talk about themp pfor example say you are immunocompromised and you either cant or wont get vaccinated you might be justly mad about all the unvaccinated knuckleheads running around getting covid and possibly infecting you at the same time you wish to minimize your required degree of intertemporal substitutionp pso if you are perhaps correctly afraid to go out very much you are better off if those same knuckleheads acquire natural immunity more quickly yes it would be better if they got vaccinated but barring that a quick pandemic may be easier for you to manage than a long drawnout pandemic which would require heroic amounts of intertemporal substitutionp blockquote precommended  and yes there is a dont overload your health system qualifier most of the us is ok on this front right now which ive written about multiple times including as early as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20200127coronavirusfromchinawillchallengeusinstitutionstoo target_blankjanuary 2020ap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109covidandintertemporalsubstitutionhtmlcovid and intertemporal substitutiona appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthat topic relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20210914seeminglyirrationalcovidbehaviorcanbeexplainedbyeconomicssrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna bitp blockquotepbefore vaccines came great sense enforce masking norms infections shifted future eventually vaccinated citizenry better protectedp pthere obvious corollary mask norms sense large numbers people vaccinated masking push infections future vaccines marginally effective time somea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210723sciencecovidvaccineisraelpfizerhtml target_blankdataasuggest people slightly worse later theyll bit older upshot case masking strong think good idea overallp pstill people prefer abide fixed rules principles learn lecture unlikely change minds masking good simple precept exactly good masking depends safer near future statement economist trained thinkp blockquote pand thisp blockquote psome consequences intertemporal substitution bit ghastly wont find people willing talk themp pfor example immunocompromised cant wont vaccinated justly mad unvaccinated knuckleheads running getting covid possibly infecting time wish minimize required degree intertemporal substitutionp pso correctly afraid better knuckleheads acquire natural immunity quickly yes better got vaccinated barring quick pandemic easier manage long drawnout pandemic require heroic amounts intertemporal substitutionp blockquote precommended yes dont overload health system qualifier ok right ive written multiple times including early relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20200127coronavirusfromchinawillchallengeusinstitutionstoo target_blankjanuary 2020ap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109covidandintertemporalsubstitutionhtmlcovid intertemporal substitutiona appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Gavin Newsom’s hollow victory

pcanada and california might be more than 4000km apart but their respective electorates have been forced to endure strikingly similar political torments in both cases seemingly glamorous progressive leaders now find themselves under assault from electorates who remain in a highly surly and volatile mood both canadian prime minister justin trudeau who opportunistically called a national election last month based solely it seems on a few good polls registered during the summer and democratic california governor gavin newsom who is on track to survive yesterdays extraordinary recall election are experiencing significant and unexpected voter discontentp peven if as it now looks likely newsom is not recalled or trudeau wins reelection that were either discussing their downfalls indicates that both the golden state and canada a country long known as a relnoopener hrefhttpsfinancialpostcomdianefrancisprosperousclassyandcoldwhycanadaisthescandinaviaofthewesternhemisphere target_blankthe scandinavia of the western hemispherea are no longer political exemplars for the rest of the world instead their governments now represent more of the same kind of political disappointments that have characterised western liberal democracies for the past 40 yearsp divdiv pin canada a hrefhttpswwwthestarcompoliticsfederalelectionpolls2021electionforecasthtmlpolls suggesta the conservatives and liberals are locked in a tight race as many voters turn to the opposition conservative party whose bluecollar policies under leader erin otoole closely resemble those of boris johnsons british tories meanwhile california long considered one of americas most progressive democratic states was almost confronted with the spectacle of a republican governor in the form of black rightwing libertarian radio host a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomusnews2021aug22larryeldercaliforniagovernorrecallelection target_blanklarry eldera the very fact that the recall vote got this far indicates that the golden state no longer glitters with opportunity for allp pthis months elections in canada and california preceded by 18 months of rolling lockdowns job losses and covidrelated chaos can roughly be described as a collective a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvmrus3dxkk9u target_blankhoward beale momenta echoing emnetworkem paddy chayefskys classic satirical black comedydrama film voters in both places are mad as hell and not going to take it anymorep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages1233746268e16285312828981024x5531300x162jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarh5the west can learn from chinah5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarspanbyspan marshall auerbackapdivadiv peven though vaccine mandates have been broadly accepted by the majority of canadians and californians this compliance is increasingly transcended by contempt for their respective governments which have failed to address a range of nonpandemicrelated issues from rising economic precarity concurrent with the growth of the socalled gig economy and all of the attendant insecurities that come with it to the fact that both places are being ruled by hypocritical outoftouch technocratic elites who are clueless about the everyday life for ordinary californians and canadiansp pas far as covid itself goes despite some missteps canada and california have done relatively well in introducing measures to restrict the speed of the pandemic both have also secured relatively high rates of vaccinations canada now has a greater proportion of its population fully vaccinated than either the us or uk while a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbeckershospitalreviewcompublichealthstatesrankedbypercentageofcovid19vaccinesadministeredhtml target_blankcalifornia ranks among the highest vaccinated among american statesap pdespite their relative success stories this months elections have unleashed longstanding grievances spurred on by disgust with the perceived hypocrisy of the two administrations in the case of california governor newsoms illtimed visit to a michelinstarred restaurant amid a covid19 surge last year sparked outrage as did his admission that he was sending his own children to classes at a private school while most public schools remained closedp pbut newsom despite his recall victory has failed on a host of other issues a number of which he shares with trudeau for instance california is often heralded as a model us state in terms of decarbonising its economy but the truth is that the governors push for renewables has degraded the reliability of the states electrical grid resulting in multiple blackouts this year these have occurred against a backdrop in which some of californias latino leaders a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhklawcomennewsintheheadlines202011latinoleadersarefightingcaliforniasunbelievablyregressive target_blankhave filed lawsuitsa to halt several climatefocused regulations due to their negative effect on low and middleincome californians yet for many families it is too late the ostensibly progressive state has the highest poverty rate in america and a level of income inequality that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwppicorgpublicationincomeinequalityincalifornia target_blankexceeds of all but five statesap psimilar charges of sanctimony have had increasing resonance in canada home to a liberal government that has consistently trumpeted its desire to move to net zero carbon emissions yet recently this same administration has also taken the extraordinary step of promoting a hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikioil_sandsoil sands exportsa to global markets a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomarticleuscanadaelectionenergytrudeausoilpipelinetarnisheshisclimatecredentialsaheadofcanadianelectioniduskcn1vr0e1 target_blankafter it nationalised the trans mountain pipeline for cad45billiona even though its former owner had cancelled the pipeline expansion because of fierce opposition from environmentalists indigenous groups and the provincial british columbian governmentp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages1153129504e16268042627711300x166jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarh5why the canadian left is burning down churchesh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarspanbyspan meghan murphyapdivadiv pby the same token justin trudeau a leader who has long trumpeted his progressive credentials has steadily seen that image erode notably in the wake of the a hrefhttpswwwcbccanewspoliticstrudeauwilsonraybouldattorneygeneralsnclavalin15014271snclavalin scandala which provoked the resignation of two female cabinet ministers both ministers accused the prime minister of inappropriately interfering in a prosecution effort against the engineering company which had been charged with fraud in connection with a series of libyan business dealings that one of the resigning ministers jody wilsonraybould served as canadas first indigenous justice minister was a particular blow to the prime ministers diversity agendap pyet trudeau may have had plausible grounds for his actions in the case of the controversial pipeline canada is still a heavily resourcebased economy and the fossil fuel industry continues to be a source of highpaying skilled jobs for the working and middle classes especially in western canada and as far as snclavalin goes it is a large quebecbased company employing thousands of canadians in a province that is a key stronghold for the liberalsp pbut while trudeau at least has plausible grounds to explain his perceived hypocrisy the same cannot be said for newsom the california governor may have survived his recall vote but now there is no hiding from the very serious structural problems that have long afflicted his state indeed as author michael shellenberger a relnoopener hrefhttpsmichaelshellenbergersubstackcompwhywemustrecallgavinnewsom target_blankhas persuasively argueda newsoms policies have actually made them worse rather than put forest management on wartime footing newsom in 2019 actually cut the budget for forest fire prevention which resulted in a full halving of the forest area treated for fire in 2020 all while accusing his political opponents of climate denial and suggesting that the deployment of weatherdependent renewable energy will somehow address the states highintensity forest fires extensive fires have also played a significant role in the states rolling blackoutsp plikewise californias housing affordabilitya relnoopener hrefhttpswww10newscomnewsmakingitinsandiegoreportcaliforniaamongleastaffordablestatestoraiseafamily target_blank ranks last among the 50 statesa with the result as shellenberger notes that the number of homeless people in the golden state rose 31 over the last 10 years even as the number of homeless in the rest of the us declined 18 percent where new york city shelters 95 of its homeless california cities shelter onethird meanwhile newsom acts like a helpless bystander even though he has a democratic supermajority in the state assembly remarkably new housing construction actually a hrefaboutblankfell 10a last year with just 100550 new building permits issued onefifth of what newsom promised when he was elected back in 2018p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages920388896scaled1300x190jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarh5conservatives need multiculturalismh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarspanbyspan blake smithapdivadiv pthat might explain why a solidly blue state started to contemplate a radical alternative to the incumbent governor larry elder a black radio talkshow host in the state a is prolife cultural conservative a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlamagcomcitythinkbloglarryelderminimumwage target_blankwho has explicitly opposed aany minimum wage let alone increase it he has also come out against vaccine mandates and has railed against a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescomarticlewhatiscriticalracetheoryhtmlmcaud_devadkeywordsauddevgategclidcjwkcajw7fujbhbdeiwa2llmytferbngp8sr1kn7uzcyibnatnroasynfcoaxsdiitx443sv3_zbocx6wqavd_bwegclsrcawds target_blankcritical race theorya and transgender politicsp pin canada however conservative politics north of the border are somewhat more prosaic the conservative partys capable new leader erin otoole has run a smart campaign and given voters a positive reason to vote tory in contrast to his hapless predecessor andrew scheer evoking boris johnsons successful 2019 election strategy its manifesto features a new kind of proworker conservatism at a time when most centreleft parties have increasingly abandoned working class interests in favour of launching progressive campaigns among its notable features are benefits for gig workers who are largely exempt from adequate social coverage in the us germanstyle worker representation on corporate boards and protections for pensions from corporate bankruptcyp pthese are policies far more likely to engender support among middle and workingclass canadians than say proposals to support an lgbtq agenda or linguistic reforms to abolish gendered pronouns all of which has helped otooles tories make headway in the election while a relnoopener hrefhttpsnewsinteractivescbccaelectionspolltrackercanada target_blankthe most recent pollsa show an incremental movement back to the liberals they still point to a hung parliamentp pand so both newsom and trudeau have in recent weeks cast their political futures in increasingly melodramatic life and death terms but such rhetoric even if they win as newsom has fails to address the central issue namely the shredding of a once sacrosanct social contract between the elites and the rest of us no matter who wins these elections the corresponding anger and social fallout that has resulted is unlikely to dissipate from canada to california the people are mad as hell and neither trudeau nor newsom seem capable of remedying thatp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202109hascanadaturnedintocaliforniaappcommentsview 8 commentsa

pcanada california 4000km apart respective electorates forced endure strikingly similar political torments cases seemingly glamorous progressive leaders find assault electorates remain highly surly volatile mood canadian prime minister justin trudeau opportunistically called national election month based solely good polls registered summer democratic california governor gavin newsom track survive yesterdays extraordinary recall election experiencing significant unexpected voter discontentp peven looks likely newsom recalled trudeau wins reelection discussing downfalls indicates golden state canada country long known relnoopener hrefhttpsfinancialpostcomdianefrancisprosperousclassyandcoldwhycanadaisthescandinaviaofthewesternhemisphere target_blankthe scandinavia western hemispherea longer political exemplars rest world instead governments represent kind political disappointments characterised western liberal democracies past 40 yearsp divdiv pin canada hrefhttpswwwthestarcompoliticsfederalelectionpolls2021electionforecasthtmlpolls suggesta conservatives liberals locked tight race voters turn opposition conservative party bluecollar policies leader erin otoole closely resemble boris johnsons british tories california long considered americas progressive democratic states confronted spectacle republican governor form black rightwing libertarian radio host relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomusnews2021aug22larryeldercaliforniagovernorrecallelection target_blanklarry eldera fact recall vote got far indicates golden state longer glitters opportunity allp pthis months elections canada california preceded 18 months rolling lockdowns job losses covidrelated chaos roughly described collective relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvmrus3dxkk9u target_blankhoward beale momenta echoing emnetworkem paddy chayefskys classic satirical black comedydrama film voters places mad hell going anymorep diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages1233746268e16285312828981024x5531300x162jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarspanmore authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarh5the west learn chinah5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whatthewestmustlearnfromchinarefinnarspanbyspan marshall auerbackapdivadiv peven vaccine mandates broadly accepted majority canadians californians compliance increasingly transcended contempt respective governments failed address range nonpandemicrelated issues rising economic precarity concurrent growth socalled gig economy attendant insecurities come fact places ruled hypocritical outoftouch technocratic elites clueless everyday life ordinary californians canadiansp pas far covid goes despite missteps canada california relatively introducing measures restrict speed pandemic secured relatively high rates vaccinations canada greater proportion population fully vaccinated uk relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbeckershospitalreviewcompublichealthstatesrankedbypercentageofcovid19vaccinesadministeredhtml target_blankcalifornia ranks highest vaccinated american statesap pdespite relative success stories months elections unleashed longstanding grievances spurred disgust perceived hypocrisy administrations case california governor newsoms illtimed visit michelinstarred restaurant amid covid19 surge year sparked outrage admission sending children classes private school public schools remained closedp pbut newsom despite recall victory failed host issues number shares trudeau instance california heralded model state terms decarbonising economy truth governors push renewables degraded reliability states electrical grid resulting multiple blackouts year occurred backdrop californias latino leaders relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhklawcomennewsintheheadlines202011latinoleadersarefightingcaliforniasunbelievablyregressive target_blankhave filed lawsuitsa halt climatefocused regulations negative effect low middleincome californians families late ostensibly progressive state highest poverty rate america level income inequality relnoopener hrefhttpswwwppicorgpublicationincomeinequalityincalifornia target_blankexceeds statesap psimilar charges sanctimony increasing resonance canada home liberal government consistently trumpeted desire net zero carbon emissions recently administration taken extraordinary step promoting hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikioil_sandsoil sands exportsa global markets relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomarticleuscanadaelectionenergytrudeausoilpipelinetarnisheshisclimatecredentialsaheadofcanadianelectioniduskcn1vr0e1 target_blankafter nationalised trans mountain pipeline cad45billiona owner cancelled pipeline expansion fierce opposition environmentalists indigenous groups provincial british columbian governmentp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages1153129504e16268042627711300x166jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarspanmore authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarh5why canadian left burning churchesh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107theignoranceofthecanadianleftrefinnarspanbyspan meghan murphyapdivadiv pby token justin trudeau leader long trumpeted progressive credentials steadily seen image erode notably wake hrefhttpswwwcbccanewspoliticstrudeauwilsonraybouldattorneygeneralsnclavalin15014271snclavalin scandala provoked resignation female cabinet ministers ministers accused prime minister inappropriately interfering prosecution effort engineering company charged fraud connection series libyan business dealings resigning ministers jody wilsonraybould served canadas indigenous justice minister particular blow prime ministers diversity agendap pyet trudeau plausible grounds actions case controversial pipeline canada heavily resourcebased economy fossil fuel industry continues source highpaying skilled jobs working middle classes especially western canada far snclavalin goes large quebecbased company employing thousands canadians province key stronghold liberalsp pbut trudeau plausible grounds explain perceived hypocrisy said newsom california governor survived recall vote hiding structural problems long afflicted state author michael shellenberger relnoopener hrefhttpsmichaelshellenbergersubstackcompwhywemustrecallgavinnewsom target_blankhas persuasively argueda newsoms policies actually worse forest management wartime footing newsom 2019 actually cut budget forest fire prevention resulted halving forest area treated fire 2020 accusing political opponents climate denial suggesting deployment weatherdependent renewable energy address states highintensity forest fires extensive fires played significant role states rolling blackoutsp plikewise californias housing affordabilitya relnoopener hrefhttpswww10newscomnewsmakingitinsandiegoreportcaliforniaamongleastaffordablestatestoraiseafamily target_blankranks 50 statesa result shellenberger notes number homeless people golden state rose 31 10 years number homeless rest declined 18 percent new york city shelters 95 homeless california cities shelter onethird newsom acts like helpless bystander democratic supermajority state assembly remarkably new housing construction actuallya hrefaboutblankfell 10alast year 100550 new building permits issued onefifth newsom promised elected 2018p diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021092gettyimages920388896scaled1300x190jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarspanmore authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarh5conservatives need multiculturalismh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202109conservativesneedmulticulturalismrefinnarspanbyspan blake smithapdivadiv pthat explain solidly blue state started contemplate radical alternative incumbent governor larry elder black radio talkshow host state prolife cultural conservative relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlamagcomcitythinkbloglarryelderminimumwage target_blankwho explicitly opposed aany minimum wage let increase come vaccine mandates railed relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescomarticlewhatiscriticalracetheoryhtmlmcaud_devadkeywordsauddevgategclidcjwkcajw7fujbhbdeiwa2llmytferbngp8sr1kn7uzcyibnatnroasynfcoaxsdiitx443sv3_zbocx6wqavd_bwegclsrcawds target_blankcritical race theorya transgender politicsp pin canada conservative politics north border somewhat prosaic conservative partys capable new leader erin otoole run smart campaign given voters positive reason vote tory contrast hapless predecessor andrew scheer evoking boris johnsons successful 2019 election strategy manifesto features new kind proworker conservatism time centreleft parties increasingly abandoned working class interests favour launching progressive campaignsamong notable features benefits gig workers largely exempt adequate social coverage germanstyle worker representation corporate boards protections pensions corporate bankruptcyp pthese policies far likely engender support middle workingclass canadians proposals support lgbtq agenda linguistic reforms abolish gendered pronouns helped otooles tories headway election relnoopener hrefhttpsnewsinteractivescbccaelectionspolltrackercanada target_blankthe recent pollsa incremental movement liberals point hung parliamentp pand newsom trudeau recent weeks cast political futures increasingly melodramatic life death terms rhetoric win newsom fails address central issue shredding sacrosanct social contract elites rest matter wins elections corresponding anger social fallout resulted unlikely dissipate canada california people mad hell trudeau newsom capable remedying thatp hrefhttpsunherdcom202109hascanadaturnedintocaliforniaappcommentsview 8 commentsa

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5 questions for Ed Glaeser on the survival of cities

pstrongby james pethokoukis and ed glaeserstrongp peven before the covid19 pandemic americas major cities faced rising housing prices congestion and inequality but since the outbreak of coronavirus cities have been hit hard with an economic downturn and rise in violent crime on top of the spread of a viral disease will cities survive and how can we prepare for the next pandemic edward glaeser appeared on a recent podcast episode to discuss these questions and morep ped is the chairman of the department of economics at harvard university and coauthor with david cutler of a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationap pbelow is an abbreviated transcript of our conversation you can read our full discussion a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsthefutureoftheamericancitymylongreadqawithedglaeser target_blankherea you can also subscribe to my podcast on a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpspodcastsapplecomuspodcastpoliticaleconomywithjimpethokoukisid589914386 target_blankapple podcastsa or a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwstitchercompodcastricochetmoneypoliticswithjimpethokoukis target_blankstitchera or download the podcast on a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsricochetcomseriespoliticaleconomyjamespethokoukis target_blankricochetap pstrongpethokoukis could you walk us through the history of what happens to urban areas that are hit by plagues going back to ancient athensstrongp pglaeser athens is a place of unbelievable creativity where dense urban streets bring together people of unbelievable talent there are these chains of collaborative creativity that can happen in cities and i cant think of any place that does that better than fifth century athensp pstarting in 431bc the peloponnesian war begins pericles the canny leader of athens democracy has a plan hes going to summon all the athenians behind the city walls which hes going to trust to protect the city from the spartan hoplites the walls hold up well against the hoplites but the walls cant keep out the disease that comes in through the port of piraeus and the disease wreaks absolute havoc perhaps killing a quarter of athens populationp pand this highlights two great weaknesses that cities have when it comes to disease which is still true in 2020 cities are the nodes on the global lattice of trade and travel theyre always the ports of entry for goods for people for ideas and for diseases secondly diseases spread more quickly when people are close to one anotherp pstrongthe economy has become more dependent on face to face interactions how has that played into the economic effects of this pandemicstrongp pits reminds us of just how economically vulnerable we are to this kind of pandemic if i take you back to the black deaths 1350 in europe the human catastrophe was absolutely devastating but the survivors ended up being richer because in an agricultural economy having a higher ratio of land relative to people means wages go up the influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919 was a short sharp shock to the economy but it wasnt all that devastating it didnt last in part because the demand for the industrial products that were the heart of this economy wouldnt disappear just because there was a plaguep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeser5qsfactoryjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610395figcaptionwomen wear goggles as they work in the welding department of lincoln motor co detroit michigan circa 19141918 reuterslibrary of congresshandout via reutersfigcaptionfigure pa hundred years later however those industrial jobs have disappeared and been replaced by urban service sector jobs and what happened was for millions and millions of american workers the ability to provide service with a smile provided an employment safe haven when the factory jobs disappeared and yet that smile turns into a source of peril rather than pleasure in a time of pandemic and those jobs can disappear in a heartbeat which is exactly what we sawp pstronghow do we make our cities and our society more resilient to the next pandemicstrongp pso i think this is something that the city governments cant do in order to pandemicproof our world we really need national and international action and the idea that my coauthor david cutler who is a health economist and i pushed forward is something that we call nato for health with the idea that this really requires global cooperation and global investments in things like preemptive vaccines global surveillancep pso youve got to worry that the low level of sanitary infrastructure in many developing world cities is making possible the rise of antibioticresistant superbugs now one way to deal with that is to invest more in pipes to invest more in sewers to invest more in aqueducts and the west can fund some of that it wouldnt be a huge amount of spending but there should be a quid pro quo which is that if theyre going to be part of this then they need to agree to surveillance they need to make sure that new diseases that are popping up are being dealt with and on top of that they have to agree to more sanitary rules separation between humans and animals for example wild animals in particularp pstrongsetting aside pandemics urban areas are facing a host of challenges like rising housing costs how should cities grapple with thatstrongp pi think there is an easy policy fix for the high cost of housing and the gentrification battles which is just to allow more housing to be built right if you go back to the 1960s if you owned a plot of land you were pretty much allowed to put up anything reasonable on it 50 years later in lots of parts of coastal america pretty much all your neighbors have veto rights over anything you might want to do with that propertyp pnew york stayed affordable in the 1920s because it built 100000 units a year because it was a city that still catered to outsiders now we have cities that cater only to insiders which may mean rich homeowners but this change in thinking which is that were going to protect people from any harm also means that if youre in a neighborhood youre losing out because your rents are going up and we really need to remember that cities are at their best when they are providing opportunity for outsiders for people who are coming there without anything real affordability means that anyone can come to the city and rent an apartment at a reasonable pricep pstrongwhat do current trends suggest about the future of citiesstrongp pwell there are two things that are going on right now that are important in cities one of which is the increased mobility made possible by zoom thats not going to replace the office but perhaps for some of the most successful firms it makes it easier to imagine moving away on top of that you have the threat of illness and of course the fact that some cities seem like theyre on the verge of being taken over by progressive leadership who think that policing is a thing of the past and totally unnecessary who think that we should again be taxing the rich in order to deal with the problems of the poor now i believe very strongly that cities can do a better job with their policing i believe very strongly that cities can do a better job of making sure that they are places of opportunity and upward mobility but if they decide that theyre going to ignore the ability of the talented to exit none of thats going to happenp pemjames pethokoukis is the dewitt wallace fellow at the american enterprise institute where he writes and edits the aeideas blog and hosts a weekly podcast a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgtagpoliticaleconomypodcast target_blankpolitical economy with james pethokoukisa ememed glaeser is the chairman of the department of economics at harvard universityemp divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforedglaeserontheeconomicsoftheopioidcrisis5 questions for ed glaeser on the economics of the opioid crisisa a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforjohnhaltiwangeronhowthepandemichaschangedusentrepreneurship5 questions for john haltiwanger on how the pandemic has changed us entrepreneurshipa a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsformichaelstrainoncovid19andtheuseconomy5 questions for michael strain on covid19 and the us economyapdiv pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforedglaeseronthesurvivalofcities5 questions for ed glaeser on the survival of citiesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

pstrongby james pethokoukis ed glaeserstrongp peven covid19 pandemic americas major cities faced rising housing prices congestion inequality outbreak coronavirus cities hit hard economic downturn rise violent crime spread viral disease cities survive prepare pandemic edward glaeser appeared recent podcast episode discuss questions morep ped chairman department economics harvard university coauthor david cutler hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationdp0593297687survival city living thriving age isolationap pbelow abbreviated transcript conversation read discussiona relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsthefutureoftheamericancitymylongreadqawithedglaeser target_blankherea subscribe podcast ona relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpspodcastsapplecomuspodcastpoliticaleconomywithjimpethokoukisid589914386 target_blankapple podcastsaora relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwstitchercompodcastricochetmoneypoliticswithjimpethokoukis target_blankstitchera download podcast ona relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsricochetcomseriespoliticaleconomyjamespethokoukis target_blankricochetap pstrongpethokoukis walk history happens urban areas hit plagues going ancient athensstrongp pglaeser athens place unbelievable creativity dense urban streets bring people unbelievable talent chains collaborative creativity happen cities cant think place better fifth century athensp pstarting 431bc peloponnesian war begins pericles canny leader athens democracy plan hes going summon athenians city walls hes going trust protect city spartan hoplites walls hold hoplites walls cant disease comes port piraeus disease wreaks absolute havoc killing quarter athens populationp pand highlights great weaknesses cities comes disease true 2020 cities nodes global lattice trade travel theyre ports entry goods people ideas diseases secondly diseases spread quickly people close anotherp pstrongthe economy dependent face face interactions played economic effects pandemicstrongp pits reminds economically vulnerable kind pandemic black deaths 1350 europe human catastrophe absolutely devastating survivors ended richer agricultural economy having higher ratio land relative people means wages influenza pandemic 1918 1919 short sharp shock economy wasnt devastating didnt demand industrial products heart economy wouldnt disappear plaguep figure classwpblockimageimg alt srchttpswwwaeiorgwpcontentuploads202109glaeser5qsfactoryjpgx91208 classwpimage1008610395figcaptionwomen wear goggles work welding department lincoln motor co detroit michigan circa 19141918 reuterslibrary congresshandout reutersfigcaptionfigure pa years later industrial jobs disappeared replaced urban service sector jobs happened millions millions american workers ability provide service smile provided employment safe haven factory jobs disappeared smile turns source peril pleasure time pandemic jobs disappear heartbeat exactly sawp pstronghow cities society resilient pandemicstrongp pso think city governments cant order pandemicproof world need national international action idea coauthor david cutler health economist pushed forward nato health idea requires global cooperation global investments things like preemptive vaccines global surveillancep pso youve got worry low level sanitary infrastructure developing world cities making possible rise antibioticresistant superbugs way deal invest pipes invest sewers invest aqueducts west fund wouldnt huge spending quid pro quo theyre going need agree surveillance need sure new diseases popping dealt agree sanitary rules separation humans animals example wild animals particularp pstrongsetting aside pandemics urban areas facing host challenges like rising housing costs cities grapple thatstrongp pi think easy policy fix high cost housing gentrification battles allow housing built right 1960s owned plot land pretty allowed reasonable 50 years later lots parts coastal america pretty neighbors veto rights want propertyp pnew york stayed affordable 1920s built 100000 units year city catered outsiders cities cater insiders mean rich homeowners change thinking going protect people harm means youre neighborhood youre losing rents going need remember cities best providing opportunity outsiders people coming real affordability means come city rent apartment reasonable pricep pstrongwhat current trends suggest future citiesstrongp pwell things going right important cities increased mobility possible zoom thats going replace office successful firms makes easier imagine moving away threat illness course fact cities like theyre verge taken progressive leadership think policing thing past totally unnecessary think taxing rich order deal problems poor believe strongly cities better job policing believe strongly cities better job making sure places opportunity upward mobility decide theyre going ignore ability talented exit thats going happenp pemjames pethokoukis dewitt wallace fellow american enterprise institute writes edits aeideas blog hosts weekly podcast relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwaeiorgtagpoliticaleconomypodcast target_blankpolitical economy james pethokoukisaememed glaeser chairman department economics harvard universityemp divpstronglearn stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforedglaeserontheeconomicsoftheopioidcrisis5 questions ed glaeser economics opioid crisisa hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforjohnhaltiwangeronhowthepandemichaschangedusentrepreneurship5 questions john haltiwanger pandemic changed entrepreneurshipa hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsformichaelstrainoncovid19andtheuseconomy5 questions michael strain covid19 economyapdiv pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomics5questionsforedglaeseronthesurvivalofcities5 questions ed glaeser survival citiesa appeared relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap

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Scott Gottlieb’s Uncontrolled Spread

pscott gottliebs a hrefhttpswwwamazoncompreparinginevitablenormalsurviveepidemicdp006308001xrefsr_1_2tagmarginalrevol20uncontrolled spreada is superb i a hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesuncontrolledspreadreviewtestedandfoundwanting11631657876modopinion_reviews_pos1reviewed it for the wsja heres one bitp div blockquotepimg dataadynamicimagequothttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sx329_bo1204203200_jpgquot[331499]quothttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sy344_bo1204203200_jpgquot[230346] srchttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sx329_bo1204203200_jpg alt width230 height347if theres one overarching theme of uncontrolled spread its that the centers for disease control and prevention failed utterly its now well known that the cdc didnt follow standard operating procedures in its own labs resulting in contamination and a complete botch of its original sarscov2 test the agencys failure put us weeks behind and took the south korea option of suppressing the virus off the table but the blunder was much deeper and more systematic than a botched test the cdc never had a plan for widespread testing which in any scenario could only be achieved by bringing in the big private labsp pinstead of working with the commercial labs the cdc went out of its way to impede them from developing and deploying their own tests the cdc wouldnt share its virus samples with commercial labs slowing down test development the agency didnt view it as a part of its mission to assist these labs dr gottlieb writes as a result it would be weeks before commercial manufacturers could get access to the samples they needed and theyd mostly have to go around the cdc one large commercial lab would obtain samples from a subsidiary in south koreap pat times the cdc seemed more interested in its own intellectual property than in saving lives in a jawdropping section dr gottlieb writes that companies seeking to make the test kits described extended negotiations with the cdc that stretched for weeks as the agency made sure that the contracts protected its inventions when every day of delay could mean thousands of lives lost down the line the cdc was dickering over test royaltiesp pin the early months of the pandemic the cdc impeded private firms from developing their own tests and demanded that all testing be run through its labs even as its own test failed miserably and its own labs had no hope of scaling up to deal with the levels of testing needed moreover the author notes because its own labs couldnt scale the cdc played down the necessity of widespread testing and took deliberate steps to enforce guidelines that would make sure it didnt receive more samples than its single lab could handlepblockquote div pread the a hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesuncontrolledspreadreviewtestedandfoundwanting11631657876modopinion_reviews_pos1whole thingap pstrongaddendumstrong my previous reviews of michael lewiss a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106thepremonitionhtmlthe premonitiona slavitts a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107bookreviewandyslavittspreventablehtmlpreventablea and abutaleb and palettas a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomnightmarescenarioadministrationsresponsepandemicdp006306605xrefsr_1_1tagmarginalrevol20nightmare scenarioap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109scottgottliebsuncontrolledspeadhtmlscott gottliebs uncontrolled spreada appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pscott gottliebs hrefhttpswwwamazoncompreparinginevitablenormalsurviveepidemicdp006308001xrefsr_1_2tagmarginalrevol20uncontrolled spreada superb hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesuncontrolledspreadreviewtestedandfoundwanting11631657876modopinion_reviews_pos1reviewed wsja heres bitp div blockquotepimg dataadynamicimagequothttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sx329_bo1204203200_jpgquot[331499]quothttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sy344_bo1204203200_jpgquot[230346] srchttpsimagesnasslimagesamazoncomimagesi41a44wfhejs_sx329_bo1204203200_jpg alt width230 height347if theres overarching theme uncontrolled spread centers disease control prevention failed utterly known cdc didnt follow standard operating procedures labs resulting contamination complete botch original sarscov2 test agencys failure weeks took south korea option suppressing virus table blunder deeper systematic botched test cdc plan widespread testing scenario achieved bringing big private labsp pinstead working commercial labs cdc went way impede developing deploying tests cdc wouldnt share virus samples commercial labs slowing test development agency didnt view mission assist labs dr gottlieb writes result weeks commercial manufacturers access samples needed theyd cdc large commercial lab obtain samples subsidiary south koreap pat times cdc interested intellectual property saving lives jawdropping section dr gottlieb writes companies seeking test kits described extended negotiations cdc stretched weeks agency sure contracts protected inventions day delay mean thousands lives lost line cdc dickering test royaltiesp pin early months pandemic cdc impeded private firms developing tests demanded testing run labs test failed miserably labs hope scaling deal levels testing needed author notes labs couldnt scale cdc played necessity widespread testing took deliberate steps enforce guidelines sure didnt receive samples single lab handlepblockquote div pread hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesuncontrolledspreadreviewtestedandfoundwanting11631657876modopinion_reviews_pos1whole thingap pstrongaddendumstrong previous reviews michael lewiss hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106thepremonitionhtmlthe premonitiona slavitts hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202107bookreviewandyslavittspreventablehtmlpreventablea abutaleb palettas hrefhttpswwwamazoncomnightmarescenarioadministrationsresponsepandemicdp006306605xrefsr_1_1tagmarginalrevol20nightmare scenarioap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109scottgottliebsuncontrolledspeadhtmlscott gottliebs uncontrolled spreada appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Covid markets in everything

div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltexta pastor is encouraging people to donate to his tulsa church so they can become an online member and get his signature on a religious exemption from coronavirus vaccine mandates the pastor jackson lahmeyer is a 29yearold smallbusiness owner running in the republican primary challenge to sen james lankford in 2022p blockquote div div section div div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextlahmeyer who leads sheridan church with his wife kendra said tuesday that in the past two days about 30000 people have downloaded the religious exemption form he createdp blockquote p dataeltextandp div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextsome institutions request a signature from a religious authority but charles haynes senior fellow for religious freedom at the freedom forum in washington said that those institutions could be on a shaky ground constitutionally haynes said that if a person states a sincere religious belief that they want to opt out of vaccination that should be enoughp blockquote div div div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltexthes not really selling a religious exemption said haynes who compared lahmeyers exemption offer to televangelists who sell things like prayer cloths hes selling a bogus idea that you need onep blockquote p dataeltexthere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomreligion20210915pastordonatevaccinereligiousexemption target_blankthe full storya via brett dp div div div div section div pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109covidmarketsineverythinghtmlcovid markets in everythinga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltexta pastor encouraging people donate tulsa church online member signature religious exemption coronavirus vaccine mandates pastor jackson lahmeyer 29yearold smallbusiness owner running republican primary challenge sen james lankford 2022p blockquote div div section div div section div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextlahmeyer leads sheridan church wife kendra said tuesday past days 30000 people downloaded religious exemption form createdp blockquote p dataeltextandp div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltextsome institutions request signature religious authority charles haynes senior fellow religious freedom freedom forum washington said institutions shaky ground constitutionally haynes said person states sincere religious belief want opt vaccination enoughp blockquote div div div div dataqadropcapletter blockquote p dataeltexthes selling religious exemption said haynes compared lahmeyers exemption offer televangelists sell things like prayer cloths hes selling bogus idea need onep blockquote p dataeltexthere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomreligion20210915pastordonatevaccinereligiousexemption target_blankthe storya brett dp div div div div section div pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109covidmarketsineverythinghtmlcovid markets everythinga appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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My January 2020 Bloomberg column on Covid

pi thought a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20200127coronavirusfromchinawillchallengeusinstitutionstoosrefhtohjx5y target_blankthis onea worthy of a redux here are a few segmentsp blockquotepfirst most emergency rooms are not equipped to handle a very high volume of cases especially infectious diseasesthe general economic problem is that emergency rooms typically are not equipped with full surge capacity nor are there enough emergency room addons or substitutes available on very short noticepblockquote pandp blockquotepvery often when a pandemic breaks out talk turns to macro remedies such as air travel bans and quarantines as china is instituting yet often the more important factor is the strength resilience and flexibility of local public health institutions and those qualities cannot be created overnight just as the chinese healthcare system is undergoing a major test right now there is a good chance that the us will toopblockquote pandp blockquote pan additional test could concern childcare and telecommuting will us schools need to be shut at the very least it is something officials should have been planning for even if schools are not closed some number of parents will keep their children at home whether out of rational fear or not antivaccine sentiment is fairly high and rising after all and even the wisest parents will prefer to be safe than sorryp pkeeping ones children at home means that fewer people will go to work even those with external childcare options such as day care may be reluctant to leave their children outside the home for the same reasons they fear the schools the new question then becomes how robust are work plans and us supply chains to a higher than usual rate of workplace absenteeism there also may be an especially high level in china which could strain us and other supply chains relying on chinese producers many businesses may need to amend their plans on the flyp ponce again pandemic preparation is about the flexibility of decentralized institutions these are not problems that can be solved by topdown planning instead they rely on longstanding institutional capacities high levels of social trust and improvisational skillp asideaside pif and when a good vaccine becomes available for the virus that will again be about the improvisation and flexibility that will allow for scalability and eventual production and distribution it is usually a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20200124howfastbiotechvaccinecoronavirus target_blankdifficulta to solve such problems quickly but still there is better and worse performance and that can make a big differencep blockquote pandp blockquotepthe very first problem the us is likely to face is one of risk communication of course the correct message will depend on how the data evolve but in general there is tension between warnings that get people to take notice and those that scare them underground or into counterproductive forms of panicp pif you tell people how terrible things are they feel a loss of control many will retreat into conspiracy theories spread mistrust of healthcare institutions or withdraw altogether from social or professional activity those who are sick may be afraid to seek medical attention for fear of having their movements constrained driving the disease further underground and distorting the data again trust is of paramount importancepblockquote precommendedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myjanuary2020bloombergcolumnoncovidhtmlmy january 2020 bloomberg column on covida appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pi thought relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20200127coronavirusfromchinawillchallengeusinstitutionstoosrefhtohjx5y target_blankthis onea worthy redux segmentsp blockquotepfirst emergency rooms equipped handle high volume cases especially infectious diseasesthe general economic problem emergency rooms typically equipped surge capacity emergency room addons substitutes available short noticepblockquote pandp blockquotepvery pandemic breaks talk turns macro remedies air travel bans quarantines china instituting important factor strength resilience flexibility local public health institutions qualities created overnight chinese healthcare system undergoing major test right good chance toopblockquote pandp blockquote pan additional test concern childcare telecommuting schools need shut officials planning schools closed number parents children home rational fear antivaccine sentiment fairly high rising wisest parents prefer safe sorryp pkeeping ones children home means fewer people work external childcare options day care reluctant leave children outside home reasons fear schools new question robust work plans supply chains higher usual rate workplace absenteeism especially high level china strain supply chains relying chinese producers businesses need amend plans flyp ponce pandemic preparation flexibility decentralized institutions problems solved topdown planning instead rely longstanding institutional capacities high levels social trust improvisational skillp asideaside pif good vaccine available virus improvisation flexibility allow scalability eventual production distribution usuallya relnoopener hrefhttpswwwstatnewscom20200124howfastbiotechvaccinecoronavirus target_blankdifficultato solve problems quickly better worse performance big differencep blockquote pandp blockquotepthe problem likely face risk communication course correct message depend data evolve general tension warnings people notice scare underground counterproductive forms panicp pif tell people terrible things feel loss control retreat conspiracy theories spread mistrust healthcare institutions withdraw altogether social professional activity sick afraid seek medical attention fear having movements constrained driving disease underground distorting data trust paramount importancepblockquote precommendedp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109myjanuary2020bloombergcolumnoncovidhtmlmy january 2020 bloomberg column covida appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Lessons for Big Tech from Ralph Nader’s ‘Sack of Detroit’

img altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109nader_in_1966jpgpppuntil recently silicon valley enjoyed a relatively high degree of freedom from us government regulation that was a deliberate policy choice responding to public enthusiasm for the possibilities of global interconnectedness and an endless stream of easily accessible information congress decreed early that online platforms would have no liability for thirdparty content flowing through their pipes as a tool of progress the internet would be freepptech companies harnessed the massive energy exerted by billions of people eager to gain a presence online to share to learn to be entertained to work to shop the web remade the united states physically economically and socially web culture became american culture and increasingly global cultureppit was only when the wonders of the internet grew familiar and tech companies became huge and powerful that the adverse consequences of connecting emeveryone emwithout appropriate oversight became glaringly apparent the internet was used for pornography sex trafficking terrorist recruiting an infinite variety of scams the evasion of laws and regulations the invasion of privacy harassment and defamation foreign propaganda and fake newspptech giants were slow to confront the regrettable purposes to which their platforms and systems were being put preferring to singlemindedly pursue growth and profits this was predictable that capitalists will a hrefhttpsolllibertyfundorgtitlehollanderdiscoursesupontradeesteem [their] immediate interests to be the common measure of good and evila was a truism remarked by restorationera english economist dudley north a century before the american revolutionppthe government response too has been predictable never mind that massive subsidies from the defense establishment have been critical to techs progress never mind that congresss handsoff policy was instrumental in helping google facebook apple amazonem emand other online giants scale up massively politicians are now tripping over one another in a race to investigate indict regulate and dismember tech companies as if they were solely responsible for the internets illsppthe justice department the federal trade commission and other agencies at the federal and state levels are pursing big tech for anticompetitive activity abuse of dominance promoting hate speech ruining conventional media labor abuses invading the privacy of users and generally poisoning the public sphere president joe biden has a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210420technologyglobaltippingpointtechhtmlstacked his administration with trustbustersa as the emnew york times emputs it other nations including china australia and members of the european union are also on the attack and sometimes leading it these governments reports theem timesem are moving to limit the power of tech companies with an urgency and breadth that no single industry had experienced beforeppwhere does it end maybe these investigators and regulators will be reasonable and even prudent certainly it ought to be possible to balance the need to curb techs excesses with concern for the finances reputations and future prospects of the companies targeted the welfare of their investors and employees and the growth and competitiveness of the american economy and it would be advisable to do so as well given that whats happened to the internet does not solely implicate silicon valley but rather is part of a general social problem for which companies governments and individual users all bear some responsibilityppbut dont count on authorities taking the correct course of action after all weve been here beforephrpthe last great tsunami of corporate regulation struck america a halfcentury ago in 1965 regulated industries in the united states represented seven percent of americas gnp by 1978 it was 30 percent a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidyuzpy6jquticprintsecfrontcoverdqlizabethcohentwentyfiveconsumerandenvironmentalregulatorybillshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewiyw_re2tfyahwmflkfhqt0aasq6af6bagieaivsnippetqtwentyfive20consumerffalsetwentyfive substantive consumer and environmental regulatory billsa were passed in that time and hundreds more were considered the victimized consumer was all the rage activists and politicians faced american capitalism in an adversarial pose armed with shocking facts and moral indignation a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabookside7qpgcg9ogicpgpa349lpgpa349dqbettyfurnessyougaveusnylonbutdidne28099ttellusitmeltsyougaveusinsectspraybutyoudidne28099ttellusitwouldkillthecatyougaveusplasticbsourceblotsmmtmmgd8k3sigacfu3u1rus4hu1jgm8v37x31bjl_m2x7wghlensaxved2ahukewii1onxdfyahumtn8khbetctmq6af6bagceamvonepageqbetty20furness20you20gave20us20nylon20but20didne28099t20tell20us20it20melts20you20gave20us20insect20spray2c20but20you20didne28099t20tell20us20it20would20kill20the20cat20you20gave20us20plastic20bffalsesaid actor betty furnessa of emswing time emfame whod become lyndon johnsons special assistant for consumer affairspblockquoteyou gave us nylon but didnt tell us it melts you gave us insect spray but you didnt tell us it would kill the cat you gave us plastic bags but didnt warn us that it could and has killed babies you gave us detergents but didnt tell us they were polluting our rivers and streams and you gave us the pill but didnt tell us we were guinea pigsblockquotepall of this activity a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidyuzpy6jquticpgpa354dqlizabethcohen22justthesparkneeded22naderhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewiduozfxdfyahvstd8khwb7bnuq6af6bageeaivonepageqlizabeth20cohen2022just20the20spark20needed2220naderffalseconcluded lizabeth cohena the leading historian of american consumer activism can be traced to ralph naders twoyear battle with general motors in the mid60s over the issue of auto safety naders success was just the spark needed to produce a major conflagration for more regulation and government intervention in the commercial economyppthere is a cloak of mythology around nader supposedly a lone authoractivist who took on the giants of detroit demonstrated that their cars were death traps and convinced washington to regulate the automotive sector nader is credited with saving hundreds of thousands of lives with his autosafety campaign and there is some truth to the legend he did embarrass gm and he did encourage the federal government to regulate detroit but thats as far as it goesppnader was a product of his times educated at princeton and harvard law school in the 1950s and influenced by an array of writers and thinkers who chafed at the economic orthodoxies of the eisenhower years ikes highest priority was economic growth maintained by constant stoking of the consumer economy the more people bought and sold the stronger the economy and the better americas chances of outpacing its global rival the soviet union that in a nutshell was the socalled cold war consensus and not only republicans but most democrats embraced it every redblooded american was said to owe it to his countrymen to double what he ate double what he smoked and wear three shoesppsociologist c wright mills was one opponent of that consensus he a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidkn_oauktbq4cprintsecfrontcoverdqpowerelitecwrightmillshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqpower20elite20c20wright20millsffalseconsidered it a selfserving inventiona of americas power elites in government and business who were enriching themselves by enslaving people to consumerism economist john kenneth galbraith a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbuihylwxhuwcprintsecfrontcoverdqgalbraiththeaffluentsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqgalbraith20the20affluent20societyffalseshared millss skepticisma why he asked should economic growth be washingtons highest priority when people were already rich enough americans enjoyed a material standard of living unexampled in history if they actually needed more consumer goods barrages of advertising would not be necessary to convince themppto galbraiths mind america had solved the ageold problems of economic scarcity and insecurity it was time to shift its attention from economic growth to better governance from commercial production of alcohol comic books mouthwash narcotics pornography and automobiles to public goods such as schools hospitals urban redevelopment sanitation parks and playgroundsppautomobiles then the hottest commodities in the consumer economy accounting for one in five retail dollars and the largest share of the nations advertising provided critics with their best illustrations of americas material excesses and social ills it was not lost on mills that three positions in eisenhowers cabinet were filled by former general motors men galbraith thought it crazy for washington to worry about privatesector growth when a company such as general motors the worlds largest and most admired industrial enterprise enjoying record profits and funding enormous advertising budgets was unassailable and in all probability immortalppboth saw an obsession with automobiles there were 14 in every garage by this time and consumers were always looking to trade up as symptomatic of americas backward priorities a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbuihylwxhuwcprintsecfrontcoverdqgalbraiththeaffluentsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvsnippetqthe20family20which20takes20its20mauveffalsewrote galbraitha the family which takes its mauve and cerise airconditioned powersteered and powerbraked automobile out for a tour passes through cities that are badly paved made hideous by litter blighted buildings billboards and posts for wires that should long since have been put underground they may reflect vaguely on the curious unevenness of their blessingspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109meteorjpg altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width787 height1024figurepnader had studied mills at princeton and was familiar with the works of galbraith he and many other young intellectuals and activists shared their rejection of the cold war consensus and their anticorporate worldview he also shared their intuition that any effort to reduce the influence of consumerism in american life and forge a new american agenda concerned primarily with public welfare would benefit from putting a big dent in detroit the issue of automobile safety was the instrument nader would use to make that dentphrpthe consensus around safety through most of automobile history had been that the car itself was harmless and that the best way to keep drivers and their passengers from being maimed or killed was to engineer better roads enforce the laws and preach driver educationthe socalled threee approach between the early 1920s when massproduced cars made their first appearance and the late 1950s this method had been sufficient to reduce annual american road fatalities per miles driven by 80 percentppbut because america was growing and people were driving more the absolute number of traffic fatalities remained in the range of 34000 to 39000 throughout the 1950s much to the frustration of the medical community which dealt with a heavy flow of injured crippled paralyzed braindamaged and dead victims of automobile crashes through its emergency rooms and operating theatersppit was american physicians who brought the first real challenge to the triplee approach in the mid1950s following the example of pioneering safety researchers they divided their analysis of every auto crash into two parts an initial collision when a vehicle hits a ditch or another vehicle or a moose and a second collision when the occupants of the crashing vehicle are thrown into its dashboard windshield steering wheel or some other unforgiving part of its interior or flung onto the road from this perspective it was not the drivers initial mistake or misfortune that caused injury or death it was the socalled second collision of human against steel glass or pavement it followed that if vehicle interiors could be designed to better protect people in crashes road carnage could be reducedppthe appeal of this approach to doctors was obvious when faced with a body on a stretcher they usually had no idea what had happened on the road and did not much care rather they dealt entirely with the consequences of the second collision they began demanding car manufacturers make the interiors of automobiles safer or crashworthy among their recommendations pad the dashboards eliminate finely beveled metal edges install collapsible steering wheel columns and safety glass and improve door latchesppwith the medical communitys help secondcollision theory caught the attention of a handful of media outlets the odd congressman and a chicago lawyer named harold katz his specialty was torts the branch of law dealing with personal injuries resulting from wrongful acts that do not necessarily amount to crimes he read what physicians were saying about second collisions and a hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable1337583refreqidexcelsior3af3c0a3a603f70a7f3f08eec4e8b1bf8fwrote a piece of his own on the subjecta for the emharvard law review emin 1956 entitled quotliability of automobile manufacturers for unsafe design of passenger carsquotppit had occurred to katz that the legal implications of secondcollision theory were immense if putting humans in cars was like shipping teacups loose in a barrel as doctors maintained werent automobile manufacturers negligent in failing to better protect occupants from unreasonable risk of injury and death surely auto engineers and designers who had more safety expertise than anyone else had a duty to build the safest practicable products for their consumers it seemed clear to katz that with almost 40000 americans dying on the roads every year automakers were a sitting duck lawyers should be suing them for the lethal designs of their vehiclesppkatzs article implicating the largest richest companies in america in tens of thousands of annual deaths was catnip to the personalinjury bar and also to thenlaw student ralph nader i got a call from this fellow id never heard of him but he was quite ecstatic a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksredir_escyidscbsaaaamaajdqeditions3axoyivoasocacfocussearchwithinvolumeqquiteestaticsaid katz of nadera he told me that he was utterly astonished and absolutely delighted by my article he didnt have any prior notion of using tort law to reform the auto industry the idea captivated himppsoon after graduating from harvard nader a hrefhttpswwwthenationcomarticlearchivesafecaryoucantbuyplaced an article in theem nationema building on katzs insights he not only saw the triplee approach to auto safety as wrongheaded but described it as a plot led by detroit to detract attention from its negligentlydesigned product he claimed that automakers had the knowledge and technological means to make accidents safe but were too callous and cheap to do itfar easier to blame drivers for accidentspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at84933ampng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width3010 height1606figurepnader outpaced katz by suggesting that automobiles are so designed as to be dangerous at any speed and suggested a conspiracy of silence around the fact that so many people were dying annually on the roads newspapers and broadcasters dared not discuss this national health emergency for fear of losing their car advertising universities were uninterested in researching the subject due to widespread amorality among our scholarly elite politicians were timid and the people needed to be protected from the indiscretion and vanity that made them susceptible to detroits sparkling roaring deathtrapsppnader was keen to see tort lawyers attack automakers with secondcollision arguments but he was even more interested in the political implications of katzs claims he believed secondcollision theory gave washington permission to regulate detroitppwithin a couple of weeks of naders article landing in theem nationem young daniel patrick moynihan then an academic placed a hrefhttpswwwunzcomprintreporter1959apr3000001a similar piecea in the april 30th 1959 edition of a magazine called theem reporterem moynihan had learned about secondcollision theory during his years as an aide to new york governor averell harriman a phd in history he was more careful with data than nader but just as excited about the prospects for regulating detroitpblockquoteif the industry cannot rise to its responsibilities the entire matter should be removed from its jurisdiction and be solved by methods employed in any other urgent public health problem if any automobile magnate wonders what that can mean he would do well to run over to chicago to watch government officials in white coats giving their safety ratings to the sides of beef as they roll off packinghouse production linesblockquotepmoynihans article caused more of a stir than naders and he signed a contract with knopf to write a book about auto safety his selfdescribed a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksiddxtwnbfhzgcpgpa34lpgpa34dqe2809cimpairifnotinfactdestroythepersonalandsocialsymbolismoftheamericanautomobilewhichisasprecioustothosewhomanufacturethemastothosewhobuytheme2809dsourceblotsrqt2etqsrnsigacfu3u1nwpgjl8gpmovxzgpwp8wvvhbnqqhlensaxved2ahukewio2pju2o_yahxnfvkfhuuvaugq6af6bagdeamvonepageqe2809cimpair20if20not20in20fact20destroy20the20personal20and20social20symbolism20of20the20american20automobile20which20is20as20precious20to20those20who20manufacture20them20as20to20those20who20buy20theme2809dffalsegoala was to write descriptions of pain and loss so powerful as to not only advance vehicle safety but also impair if not in fact destroy the personal and social symbolism of the american automobile which is as precious to those who manufacture them as to those who buy themppmore ambitiously moynihan like galbraith and others before him believed that cutting general motors down to size would reduce corporate influence in american life and shift the focus of government from encouraging consumption of private goods to encouraging the development of public goods he a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksiday7taaaamaajqdanielpatrickmoynihan22thecentralconcernsofamericansocietyarenolongerinthehandsoffreeenterpriseandthatfreeenterpriseisnolongerinthehandsofmenwho22expecttoleadsocietydqdanielpatrickmoynihan22thecentralconcernsofamericansocietyarenolongerinthehandsoffreeenterpriseandthatfreeenterpriseisnolongerinthehandsofmenwho22expecttoleadsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewilof7mznfyahwtelkfhbvideyq6af6bagdeaidreamed of a time whena the central concerns of american society are no longer in the hands of free enterprise and that free enterprise is no longer in the hands of men who expect to lead societyphrpmoynihan worked for john f kennedy in 1960 and upon his election to the presidency was rewarded with a job as aide to labor secretary arthur goldberg the demands of his career in washington prevented him from delivering his book to knopf but moynihan didnt drop the issue of auto safety hed begun a friendly correspondence with nader after their articles had been published after jfk was assassinated and lyndon johnson began planning a more aggressively liberal agenda moynihan invited his friend to join him in the labor department and work on a report about auto safetyppnader with not much else happening in his life jumped at the chance and in his first nine months at labor using the full powers of his bosss office to collect information and conduct interviews a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidiwd4ez3g_vgcpgpa421lpgpa421dq22areportonthecontextconditionandrecommendeddirectionoffederalactivityinhighwaysafety22sourceblots9e_txp0xessigacfu3u1oq_go74hp5evgxmzpttdmutp2qhlensaxved2ahukewikik7p2e_yahxmgfkfhs2yc7sq6af6bagdeamvonepageq22a20report20on20the20context2c20condition2c20and20recommended20direction20of20federal20activity20in20highway20safety22ffalseproduceda a 234page first draft of the book moynihan hadnt found time to write only a few copies of ema report on the context condition and recommended direction of federal activity in highway safetyem were printed and moynihans secretary expressed doubt that even he had read the whole document it was not widely circulated inside government and it may be that emno oneem read it moynihan would later say he commissioned it primarily so that when advocating for federal regulation of automakers he could say that he had a 234page report with 99 pages of notes to back him upppwhile nader was toiling on his report moynihan learned that secondcollision theory was gaining traction in certain congressional offices abraham ribicoff a liberal democratic senator representing connecticut and a former governor of that state had some experience with consumer issues hed received generous press as the main congressional champion of author and environmentalist rachel carson in 1963 having won his office by a slim margin of votes he was eager to build on that momentumpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mediumsizedjpeg1jpg altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width600 height478figcaptionabraham ribicoff on campaign in 1962figcaptionfigurepperusing the emnew york timesem one morning in december 1964 ribicoff came across an article on accident research and secondcollision theory in which an anonymous researcher was quoted as saying that detroit had the wherewithal to build a crashproof car but couldnt be botheredppit was the first time id heard of the car as a factor in accidents a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0idjgecm9ntb8ecdqribicoffitwasthefirsttimeidheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryfocussearchwithinvolumeqitwasthefirsttimei27dheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryhe saida i was intrigued by the theory of the second collision this was a new concept to meppribicoff telephoned an aide jerome sonosky and asked him to schedule hearings on the role of the vehicle in automobile crashesppthis means taking on detroit a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0idjgecm9ntb8ecdqribicoffitwasthefirsttimeidheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryfocussearchwithinvolumeqthismeanstakingondetroitsaid sonoskyappcan you do it asked ribicoffppsonosky could he and moynihan quickly found each other and sonosky was introduced to naderppnader walked in looking then as he looks now a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa80lpgpa80dqnadersonoskynaderwalkedinlookingthenashelooksnowsallowfacedwearinghislongovercoat22sourceblotsasiply8hqosigacfu3u1xngoqcnbsowvgsu6fmmve2cbggqhlensaxved2ahukewibuevjztfyahu6fvkfhf4schmq6af6bagdeamvonepageqnader20sonosky20nader20walked20in20looking20then20as20he20looks20now20sallow20faced20wearing20his20long20overcoat22ffalsesaid sonosky latera sallow faced wearing his long overcoat carrying a thousand pieces of paper under his arm his message was that the auto industry has no right to produce unsafe cars we talked for three hours about various aspects of the issue and where we should go with itppsaid a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidom4heaaaqbajpgpa322lpgpa322dqralphnadere2809cthistownisfullofguyswhowanderaroundwithstacksofpaperundertheirarmstryingtoseesenatorsorbustintomagazineofficessourceblotsz9rtf4r29sigacfu3u2stjqqdeuk9pgwo2vzqdhvplbdrahlensaxved2ahukewi54qlfztfyahwugfkfhxyha9gq6af6bagdeamvonepageqralph20nader20e2809cthis20town20is20full20of20guys20who20wander20around20with20stacks20of20paper20under20their20arms20trying20to20see20senators20or20bust20into20magazine20officesffalsea journalist who knew nadera this town is full of guys who wander around with stacks of paper under their arms trying to see senators or bust into magazine offices ralph is one who got through the guardsppsonosky left his meeting with nader and immediately called ribicoffppwe just struck gold a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa80dqsonoskyribicoff22wejuststruckgold22hlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewj946v4ztfyahucelkfhd5bcysq6af6bagfeaivonepageqsonosky20ribicoff2022we20just20struck20gold22ffalsehe saidappwhat do you meanppi just met somebody who knows more about auto safety than anybody ive ever come across i dont have to run around town gathering up various experts i just found himppnader already on the department of labor payroll was also hired as an unpaid advisor to ribicoffs subcommittee on the federal role in traffic safety which would begin hearings early in 1965 in practice that meant that moynihan would keep nader on the labor payroll for a half year after his report was produced so he could volunteer for ribicoffppnader was my prime resource period a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidjgecm9ntb8ecdqmccarrycitizennaderfocussearchwithinvolumeqprimeresourcesaid sonoskya i didnt need anyone else he had everything the pair would meet and talk for hours about the issues what questions to ask witnesses and how to handle technical material sometimes i had to shut him up a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidjgecm9ntb8ecdqmccarrycitizennaderfocussearchwithinvolumeqhewasfixatedsaid sonoskya he was fixated information and tactics they developed circulated among the offices of ribicoff moynihan and freshman senator robert f kennedy who was expected to participate in the proceedingsppseveral important things happened before ribicoffs hearings could get underway one was that washingtons general services administration gsa responsible for procurement of the federal fleet had been authorized by congress to require the hundreds of thousands of automobiles it purchased to include padded dashboards stronger windshields and other safety equipment another was that this application of federal purchasing power the inspiration of a littleknown but effective alabama congressman named kenneth roberts prompted detroit after some grumbling to adopt for all its cars virtually the whole slate of changes to automobile interiors requested by the american medical communityppthis development did not slow ribicoff in the least he began his hearings on march 22nd 1965 and made two important arguments off the top a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq13q1traffic20safety20establishmenthe claimed there existed in americaa a traffic safety establishment including police forces state traffic commissions and the national safety council among other organizations under the influence of detroit which provided funding to these organizations and sometimes had representation on their boards the establishment was misleading the nation by blaming drivers for road carnage when secondcollision theory proved that the real problem was negligently designed american automobilesppribicoffs second argument was that detroit knew how to make cars crashproof but couldnt be bothered and that the public interest required washington to step in and impose automobile safety standardspphis first three days of hearings didnt go as planned the other eight senators whod agreed to sit on ribicoffs panel were largely absent as was the media witnesses from such federal departments as commerce and health education and welfare testified that they saw no need for further federal involvement in auto safety and praised the automakers and general motors in particular for their leadership on the issueppdaniel patrick moynihan representing the department of labor was a notable exception he a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq294q1moynihan20has20done20almost20nothing20about20the20problem20of20traffic20safety22expressed the viewa that america had done almost nothing about the problem of traffic safety the triplee approach he said was nonsense instead of trying to reform 80 million americans drivers who were incorrigibly reckless behind the wheel better to concentrate on a handful of automobile executives in detroit in their a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidzxkbdwaaqbajpgpa120lpgpa120dqdanielpatrickmoynihan22considerableobtuseness22sourceblotslibvm4genzsigacfu3u3eixxjgmuutkfngo05ash6n_qgbghlensaxved2ahukewji6upy0dfyahuxheakhxvzcuiq6af6bagceamvonepageqdaniel20patrick20moynihan2022considerable20obtuseness22ffalseconsiderable obtusenessa these executives believed safety didnt sell cars so they plied an unwitting public with bloated overpowered dangerous models rather than crashproof vehicles that would save lives the federal hammer was required to force a changeppan otherwise dispirited ribicoff a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq338skin2021q1you20make20a20lot20of20sense20in20almost20everything20you20do20mr20moynihanwas overjoyed by this testimonya you make a lot of sense in almost everything you do mr moynihan i appreciate your coming hereppwhile there had been almost no one in the room to hear any of this testimony that changed in the second round of ribicoffs hearings he was joined on the rostrum by three senate colleagues and the room was abuzz with spectators photographers and reporters the excitement was due to the scheduled appearances of two witnesses from detroit frederic g donner chairman of the board of general motors and james m roche president of the company these barely distinguishable eminences sat side by side at the witness table when they put their gray heads together to whisper news photographs made them appear conjoinedppsome at gm thought it a mistake for the executives to dignify ribicoffs hearings with their presence better to send some engineers and lawyers who would draw no crowds and say nothing intelligible to the general public but chairman donner was anxious to put his best foot forward on auto safety he and roche prepared and rehearsed for their appearance and gm made what was intended as a goodfaith donation of 1 million to traffic safety research at mitppin their opening statements the gm men professed themselves concerned with the number of traffic deaths in america they spoke of improvements made in safety glass door latches steel roofs and other equipment their use of crash sleds and crash dummies and highspeed photography to better understand the dynamics of collisions and their participation in crashinjury research projects conducted with recognized experts at cornell university among other parties they boasted that they would be meeting most of the gsas imposed safety requirements ahead of scheduleppto preempt questions about why gm hadnt rushed to install each new safety technology at the moment it became available a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq697skin2021q1donner20a20climate20of20public20acceptancedonner explained that his company operated ina a climate of public acceptance people were only willing to pay for so much safety and would balk if it was forced on them at increased cost thus new safety features tended to be available first as options and later once theyd proved themselves as standard equipment they pointed out that no one had been willing to pay for turn signals when they were first introduced but over time consumers were sold on their utility and they became standard equipment on cars even before states which had primary responsibility for regulating commerce began to mandate themppas for building crashproof vehicles the gm honchos were skeptical more improvements could be made they said but there were limits to technology a crashproof vehicle was not within the realm of possibility driver education law enforcement and road engineering were also importantppwhile the gm men laid down their case nader the ribicoff panels expertinchief sat behind a door in the chamber passing slips of paper to the senators aide inside supplying information and ideas for lines of attackppthe executives were having a rather easy time of it until new york senator robert kennedy joined the proceedings late it had been the better part of a decade since kennedy as a young senate aide to joseph mccarthy had badgered suspected communists in hearing rooms but he had not lost a step he proceeded to steal ribicoffs show describing gms gift to mit as a publicity stunt a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq800skin2021q1donner20kennedy20i20don27t20believe20it20is20a20matter20of20what20we20have20spentand asking chairman donnera how much the company spent annually on safety researchppsir i dont believe it is a matter of what we have spent said donnerppwell i am interested in it you might not be but i am and i am just asking youppwe dont know senator how to add all these things upppyou dontppbecause they are scattered all over ppgeneral motors doesnt know how to add them upppdonner tried to explain that some money was spent in research more through the automobile manufacturers association and in other directions he asked if kennedy wanted to know about pure research or development and testing or reliability or other mattersppi will ask you some specifics about it said kennedy confident he had the witnesses on the run how much money have you spent to find out how many children fell out of the back of an automobile because of a faulty latch or lockppthe executives had no answerpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at85651ampng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width1140 height1088figcaptiongm general counsel aloysius power testifying to a senate subcommittee in 1959figcaptionfigurephow many children have fallen out of general motors cars asked kennedy last yearppi dont quite know how you would find that out said donnerppkennedy toyed with the executives asking more questions he knew they would be unable to answer about their safety spending and taunting them for their failure when roche finally coughed up a hard number estimating that the company spent 125 million in the previous year on external safety research kennedy went for bloodppwhat was the profit of general motors last yearpproche answered i dont think that has anything to do ppi would like to have that answer if i may i think i am entitled to know that figure you spent 125 million as i understand it on this aspect of safety i would like to know what your profit isppdonner tried to brush kennedy back saying that he was in attendance to discuss safety not financesppwhat was the profit of general motors last year repeated the senatorppi will have to ask one of my associates said donnerppcould you pleasepp1700 million replied rocheppwhat asked kennedyppabout 15 billion i thinkppone billion asked kennedypp17 billion said donnerppabout 15 billonppyesppyou made 17 billion last yearppthat is correctppand you spent 1 million on thisppthe juxtaposition was fatal kennedy berated the executives for making so much and spending so little on safety when there were by now more than 40000 americans dying on the road every year donner and roche tried to explain that the 125 million figure was for external safety spending not the sum total of the companys safety expenditures but the fact that they could not specify the sum total negated their point and a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq803skin2021q1donner20kennedy20i20cannot20believe20general20motors20does20not20have20this20informationbrought more abuse from kennedya i cannot believe general motors does not have this informationppribicoff and kennedy brought the proceedings to a close by congratulating one another on their commitment to improving traffic safety when so many of the individuals and organizations nominally responsible for safety were sitting on their handsphrpeven gm insiders acknowledged that the executives were clobbered at their appearance the emwall street journalem reported on july 20th 1965 that they were astonishingly illprepared and declared their performance dismal the newspaper quoted a congressman as saying i really wouldnt have believed they could be so bad gm later tallied all of its spending on safety research testing engineering and driver training at 193 million annually but by this time the damage was doneppit was only after theyd been beaten up by rfk that it became clear to gm officials what they were up against as one executive put it automakers were now targets of a disturbing rapidly growing and often factdistorting campaign to indict motor vehicle design as the major contributor to traffic deaths and injuriesppthis was new territory for gm in 1953 the companys former president charles e wilson nominated as eisenhowers secretary of defense a hrefhttpswwwoxfordreferencecomview101093acref97801918666920010001qoroed600011619told his confirmation hearinga for years i thought what was good for our country was good for general motors and vice versa the difference did not exist our company is too big it goes with the welfare of the country our contribution to the nation is quite considerableppa lot of interpretations have been offered for wilsons statement but what he thought he was saying was that america and general motors were on the same team and should be looking out for each others interests it was a single restatement of the cold war consensus a thriving commercial economy centered around the automobile industry would sustain americas unsurpassed standards of living and geopolitical leadership that commonality of interests no longer heldppgeneral motors stepped up its safety efforts and its publicity of them in the months following the hearings and waited for the nations attention to shift back from highway death tolls to the gleaming new automobiles rolling off detroits assembly lines they were disappointed senators kennedy and ribicoff spent the rest of 1965 making speeches and writing articles on traffic safety and the failure of detroit to produce a crashproof carppthe senators criticisms were echoed by a growing chorus of tort lawyers theyd filed over 100 suits alleging that the chevrolet corvair general motorss innovative rearengine compact was so negligently designed that a gust of wind a tight curve or a bump in the road could cause a driver to lose control at speeds as low as 22 mph resulting in severe injury or death the lawyers were testifying at state legislatures that the corvair was symptomatic of detroits indifference to auto safety and its willingness to sacrifice human life to pad its profits and planting stories in tabloids about chevrolets rearengine death trappfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at85912ampng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width1464 height1842figurepamidst all this came the first notices of naders a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomunsafeanyspeeddesignedautomobiledp0670741590emunsafe at any speed the designedin dangers of the american automobileemaem emthe book opened with gory details of corvair traffic road accidents and repeated arguments against the car used by lawyers suing gm nader a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqgreatestactscalled the corvaira one of the centurys greatest acts of industrial irresponsibility and claimed gm could easily have made the car safe with a few dollars worth of safety improvements but was too greedy to pay for themppthe author went on to present detroits executives as amoral and even sociopathic determined to dazzle car buyers with expensive new paint colors and gadgets while installing weak brakes fragile glass unpadded dashboards defective hood latches sticky accelerators inferior tires and other faulty equipment they got away with this he maintained because the auto industry operated outside the law by which he meant free of federal regulationppkennedys attack on gm executives over safety spending got lengthy treatment like ribicoff a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqcloselyknittrafficsafetynader excoriated thea closely knit traffic safety establishment for its close ties to the automakers he even suggested an alarming conspiracy among medical professionals police chiefs insurance agents autorepair shops funeral homes and others whose financial interest is dependent on a steady supply of highway injuries and fatalities thousands of jobs depend on the death toll a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqremunerationliessaid nadera [this] is where the remuneration lies and this is where the talent and energies gopfigureiframe allowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedni9hq0_mhy0start47featureoembed width200 height113iframefigurepalthough much of emunsafe at any speedem was generally tendentious nader did make valid points about detroits methods and products but in media appearances and in his own star appearance before ribicoffs panel nader would occasionally go further than he had in the book comparing americanbuilt cars to sitting as he told cbs in 1966 in a roomful of knives he would also present himself as a romantic figure a lone wolf with few material possessions who lived in a cheap rooming house and did nothing but work his ascetic lifestyle was accepted as proof of his devotion to the public good his annual salary at labor had been 15000 the national household income at the time was 6590ppweeks after the release of naders book tort lawyers brought the safety crusade to a new pitch with their a hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq1368skin2021q1stop20murder20by20motoremstop murder by motorem publicity campaigna their use of the word murder echoed naders oftmade suggestion that there had to be something deliberate about detroits creation of such lethal vehicles ribicoff moynihan kennedy and even president johnson all endorsed the campaignppgm officials were bewildered at the animus now directed toward their company and alarmed that senators ribicoff kennedy and moynihan nader the corvair plaintiffs and the defense bar were apparently sharing information and arguments and collaborating on tacticspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210905at111941pm3png altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width500 height592figurepnader who worked for ribicoff and moynihan and who was known to share his research with tort lawyers seemed to be at the center of the cabal but no one knew much about him he claimed to be a lone wolf but he was employed inside the government and had better connections in many quarters than gm itself he was trained as a lawyer but hed apparently abandoned the practice hed written a book but did not present as a journalist was he a political actor a consultant was he setting himself up as an expert witnesspphe was all around gm but the company couldnt get a bead on him who the hell is this guy one gm attorney asked his colleaguesppno one individual at general motors would ever claim credit for the idea but by the end of 1965 the company had laid plans to hire an investigator the brief was to discover naders angle and dig up any available dirt on him it was a stupid moveppgms investigators did some legitimate work turning up solid information about naders connection to the tort lawyers his handsome salary at labor his purchase of ford stock previous to gms appearance before ribicoff and that he was playing both sides of the table for the senator posing as an independent witness before the senate subcommittee while also helping to direct the hearings they also came close to learning that nader had written his book on the public payroll and that moynihan and the labor department were effectively paying him long after his original report had been filed to support the senate subcommitteeppbut the investigators pretending to be checking nader out for a prospective employer also asked friends and acquaintances about his personal life and habits this and other missteps raised suspicions causing the detectives to be outed gms executives were called back before the ribicoff panel they issued a humiliating apology and lost whatever support remained for the company in washingtonppthe johnson administration proposed to create a new department of transportation and bring general motors and the rest of detroit under federal regulation to set standards for auto safety something had to be done he said echoing naders arguments with the statement that a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidhpqe8urdgqycpgpa90lpgpa90dqthereisnosinglestatisticofamericanlifemoreshockingthanthetollofdeadandinjuredonourhighwayse2809dsourceblotshl66wluc9sigacfu3u3dj3k4jttyrthv0clavmr9fjnwhlensaxved2ahukewj89rdt5u_yahumu98khsq7ag8q6af6bagceamvonepageqthere20is20no20single20statistic20of20american20life20more20shocking20than20the20toll20of20dead20and20injured20on20our20highwayse2809dffalsethere is no single statistic of american life more shocking than the toll of dead and injured on our highwaysappsenators and congressmen fought with one another to make johnsons two pieces of auto safety legislation as stringent as possible and to pass them before the november 1966 midterm electionsppelizabeth drew a hrefhttpsepdfpubcorporatepoweramericandemocracyandtheautomobileindustryhtmlwritinga in theem atlantic monthlyem was stunned by the radical departure from the governments traditional respectful handsoff approach to the auto industry she attributed the change not to any deep concern with auto safety but rather to the realization that automobile safety was good politics people loved their cars but nobody really loved an automobile company and the result had been a political carsafety derby with politicians jockeying for the position out in frontppcongressmen interviewed by dan cordtz who covered the story for emfortuneemem emshowed little interest in the complicated problem of traffic safety or the merits of secondcollision theory they voted not to address a publicpolicy problem but to punish gm for its poor performance before ribicoffs committee and spying on nader a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa104lpgpa104dqe2809cmanystrongsupportersofautosafetylegislationagree22sourceblotsasiqkracmhsigacfu3u0b8zc2hvr3aupe2odcmtpwauq9rghlensaxved2ahukewjgycl95_yahwrgvkfhxm2a_gq6af6bagceamvonepageqe2809cmany20strong20supporters20of20auto20safety20legislation20agree22ffalsewrote cordtza many strong supporters of auto safety legislation agree that gms conduct was the most important single factor in establishing a congressional climate conducive to the passage of a tough safety billppnone of what i write here is intended to whitewash or excuse gms behavior or that of the corporate sector more generally general motors had a history of bullying and predatory behavior its definition of the public good while broader than recognized at the time was too narrow for its own good and it deserved to get slapped around in the public sphere for using private investigators to seek personal dirt on naderppbut that is no alibi for congress to approve hasty sweeping punitive and counterproductive regulations of americas most important industry any decision on federal involvement in the auto industry should have been made on the merits of the proposed legislation yet the legislators displayed minimal curiosity about safety issues they were primarily interested in taking down a corporate giant and the fight for legislative credit they were as reckless in their treatment of detroit as nader and friends imagined automakers to be in their treatment of consumersphrpjohnsons a hrefhttpswwwencyclopediacomhistoryencyclopediasalmanacstranscriptsandmapsnationaltrafficandmotorvehiclesafetyact1966national traffic and motor vehicle safety act of 1966a was deliberately conceived so as to shift the focus of americas concern for road safety from drivers to vehicles as directed the newly formed national highway traffic safety administration nhtsa was primarily concerned with the crashworthiness of automobiles and soon imposed more than 50 vehicle safety standards on automakers it also won the ability to force recalls on automakers the focus of the nhtsa became even narrower when president jimmy carter appointed naders colleague joan claybrook as its head air bags the holy grail of those bent on crashproof vehicles became the overwhelming focus of the agencys efforts though the technology was still not ready and claims for their efficacy were still being exaggeratedppnader and the safety crusaders opened the floodgates for other enterprising congressmen to campaign against corporate recklessness the 25 consumer and environmental regulatory bills passed in the wake of the traffic safety bills expanded the regulatory state into food cosmetics credit instruments packaging and advertising monopolies and pricing practices and air and water pollution the number of people staffing federal regulatory agencies tripled and government spending on regulatory enforcement increased by a factor of nine over roughly the same period additionally by 1975 all 50 states had created their own consumerprotection agencies and 39 had passed consumer protection statutesppthese congressmen were joined in washington by a new generation of activists by 1977 83 public interest groups were operating in the capital more than half of them arriving after naders triumphppmeanwhile the courts curtailed legal defenses available to manufacturers while expanding liability standards to cover almost any product malfunction they also allowed greater scope for recovery of noneconomic damages such as pain and suffering and permitted classaction procedures by which private law claims could be aggregated by the hundreds of thousands effectively industrialized torts all of these measures were a boon to entrepreneurial attorneys arguing harms on behalf of the victimized american consumer from 1950 to 1990 a hrefhttpswwwcasactorgsitesdefaultfilesoldstudynotes_towerswatsontortcosttrendspdfdirect tort costs grewa at an astonishing average annual rate of 113 percent from 18 billion a year to 1302 billion more than three times the rate of growth in the economyppaltogether these congressmen lawyers and activists represented an enormous shift in americas entrepreneurial energies from economic growth to identifying and combatting growths negative consequences or a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidba8mdwaaqbajpgpa590dqrobertgordoncreatinggoodstofightingbadshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewih9fze3nfyahuzfvkfhyzzax4q6af6bagheaivonepageqrobert20gordon20creating20goods20to20fighting20badsffalseas author robert gordon put ita from creating goods to fighting bads this was the end of american enterprise in the form it had taken for the first 200 years of the countrys historyppit happened with breathtaking speed in 1964 a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidf8qqbgaaqbajpgpa50dqrichardhofstadtertheexistenceandworkingsofthecorporationsarelargelyacceptedandinthemaintheyareassumedtobefundamentallybenignhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewirmttp3nfyahxtelkfha9mbw4q6af6bagkeaivonepageqrichard20hofstadter20the20existence20and20workings20of20the20corporations20are20largely20accepted2c20and20in20the20main20they20are20assumed20to20be20fundamentally20benignffalsehistorian richard hofstadter had writtena that the existence and workings of the corporations are largely accepted and in the main they are assumed to be fundamentally benign public approval of business peaked in 1966 when 55 percent of surveyed americans expressed a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidtwihpaksz8ecprintsecfrontcoverdqvogeldavidfluctuatingfortuneshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqa20great20deal20of20confidenceffalsea great deal of confidencea in the leaders of major corporations and 96 percent agreed that free enterprise had made america great by 1971 only 27 percent of americans expressed a great deal of confidence in business leadership and by 1974 the figure was just 16 percentppsales of the corvair collapsed by twothirds even before gms private eyes were discovered it was out of production entirely within two years despite the fact that the suits against the corvair were either lost dropped or settled out of court for low amountsppnader has never admitted that his characterization of the car was uniquely dangerous and negligently designed was wrong even after a court case vindicated the cars design the nhtsa under pressure from nader a hrefhttpsntrlntisgovntrldashboardsearchresultstitledetailpb211014xhtmlsubjected the car to intensive testing and founda the handling and stability performance of the corvair does not result in an abnormal potential for loss of control or rollover and it is at least as good as the performance of some contemporary vehicles both foreign and domesticppand while the fate of this single rearengine compact car alone was insufficient to change the future of gm the safety crusade did severe damage to the companys overall brand in 1965 gm was comfortably atop the fortune 500 rankings and its new model year had broken all records for sales volume revenue and profits independent consumer surveys showed that gm was considered by americans the undisputed leader of the auto industry and easily the most powerful successful and admired us corporation gallup found gm ahead of every other american firm in terms of products corporate performance and contributions to society safety was not a serious issue in the public mind americans blamed bad drivers for blood on the road and believed their cars were built with their protection in mindppall that changed with the confluence of ribicoffs hearings the publication of emunsafe at any speedem the emstop murder by motorem campaign and leaked news that the white house was preparing a bill to regulate automakers in february 1966 a month before gms detectives were discovered gm sales dropped precipitously nearly every gm nameplate was affected and the corporations reversal was enough to drag the whole industry into a net decline the first significant break in a remarkable fiveyear run for detroit despite widespread discounting of gm models sales were off eight percent by the end of the yearppthe damage was reflected in gms share price the most important metric so far as management was concerned it hit a high of 105 in the first weeks of 1966 dropped to 101 on the release of early february sales data and fell to 95 after gms detectives were exposed by the end of 1966 it traded at 66 representing a 37 percent loss in shareholder value for the markets most reliable performerppthe familiar narrative of detroits decline takes the 1973 oil crisis as a critical juncture a sudden surge in oil prices that year prompted a large number of american car buyers to abandon detroits massive and expensive cars for smaller more fuelefficient imports from japan and germany american manufacturers were blind to the inferior quality of their vehicles failed to meet the challenge and imports took over the american marketpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210908at10258pmpng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width1884 height1266figcaptiona seattlearea gas station forced to close during the oil crisisfigcaptionfigurepbut imports had begun trending up sharply in 1966 right around the time when ribicoff and nader opened their campaign to convince americans that detroit was murdering them with unsafe vehicles this happened despite these imports being generally less safe and of poorer quality than americanmade cars the real advances in japanese manufacturing led by honda came in the late 1970sppwhy didnt detroit introduce hot new compacts to beat back the foreign invasion thats what theyd done in the late 1950s when the volkswagen beetle led an import push that peaked at 12 percent of the us market gm announced the compact corvair while ford and chrysler introduced compacts of their own and imports trended downward in the early 1960s though the stalwart beetle did remain popularpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at92355ampng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width1386 height582figcaptionforeignbrand import share of us passengercar sales from 1955 to 1980figcaptionfigurepin 1970 us car companies again tried to respond this time with innovative fourcylinder vehicles led by chevrolets vega but the business environment had changed markedly during the preceding decade gm now dealing with slimmer profits and a lower share price had become risk averse following the relentless attacks on its innovative rearengine corvair its finances were now so weak that new cars had be designed and built on the cheap and it showedppafter 1966 general motors was like an automobile that had been returned to the road after a bad crash it looked okay from the outside but never ran properly again the stability confidence and consistent growth it had enjoyed up until 1966 would never return and because gm comprised half of the domestic auto industry detroit was never the same eitherppin 1960 gm had begun investing vast sums of money in overseas expansion with the underlying goal of dominating world auto markets its executives made a series of speeches on the changing nature of global commerce and about how the united states needed to lift its head from the domestic scene if it was to hold its position of leadership in the markets of tomorrow donner the company chair wanted his government and international trade bodies to foster a global business environment that encouraged private investment and the free movement of capital with a reduction in punitive taxation and trade barrierspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210908at10933pmpng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width1330 height1714figurepinstead of executing this global plan donners company spent the next decade at war with washington over safety and environmental standards instead of helping automakers with their ambitions as governments in japan and germany were helping their own domestic manufacturers president johnson anxious to reduce a us foreign trade deficit largely of his own making signed an executive order prohibiting us investors from acquiring more than 10 percent of foreign businesses thus was the world car market cleared for japan and germanyphrpthere is no arguing with ralph nader and every other safety crusader that the 49163 fatalities on american roads in 1965 the last year before passage of johnsons traffic safety legislation were a publichealth catastrophe reducing the death toll was a perfectly legitimate goal of public policy the question remains did the safety crusaders solve the problem or at least save more lives than would have been saved without their interventionppnader and the nhtsa a hrefhttpswwwautosafetyorgon50thanniversaryofralphnadersunsafeatanyspeedsafetygroupreportsdecliningdeathrateshavesaved35millionlivesclaima that the legislative and regulatory apparatus created in 1966 saved 35 million lives during the 50year period that followed with the nhtsa calling it a hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbth9dwaaqbajpgpa27lpgpa27dqnhtsaoneofthemosteffectivepublichealthandsafetyeffortsofthepastcenturysourceblotsutvkzbsiqusigacfu3u2xexdcj53zrvigckp28vgajd38zwhlensaxved2ahukewia2or24nfyahxqguakha03c6yq6af6bagleamvonepageqnhtsa20one20of20the20most20effective20public20health20and20safety20efforts20of20the20past20centuryffalseone of the most effective public health and safety efforts of the past centurya but the data does not support this claim statistically speaking there was more safety progress in the halfcentury before the 1966 legislation than in the halfcentury that followed moreover that 35million figure includes fatality reductions that are unrelated to vehiclesafety technology such as those associated with mandatory seatbelt usage and drunkdriving lawspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at92729ampng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width700 height249figcaptionalcoholrelated and nonalcoholrelated traffic fatalities in the united states 19822002figcaptionfigurepseatbelts alone are credited by contemporary researchers with a hrefhttpswwwesvnhtsadotgovproceedings24files24esv000291pdfsaving more livesa than all other vehicle safety technologies put together between 1960 and 2021 these devices were installed pre1966 by automakers under pressure from state legislatures part of the maligned trafficsafety establishment but few people used them congress could have made them mandatory but lacked the courage to impose their use on the nations driversppthis was one of the more invidious effects of secondcollision theory the rush to blame detroit for traffic deaths gave drivers a free pass in fact nader himself vociferously a hrefhttpswwwupicomarchives19831206consumeradvocateralphnadertodayrejectedtheautoindustrys7283439534800opposeda mandatory seatbelt usage on the grounds that people were incorrigible and behaviorcontrol laws would never work a hrefhttpswwwupicomarchives19831206consumeradvocateralphnadertodayrejectedtheautoindustrys7283439534800we learned that in prohibitiona he told a government hearing in 1983 as for drunk driving he a hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20010611wrongturntolda a journalist that he was skeptical of prohibiting that too because the culture is deeply embedded i thought it was too ingrainedppof the many new safety standards applied by nhtsa to american cars in fact the most effective were instigated before 1966 by the unheralded regulators in the gsa whod rather quietly used their purchasing power to nudge detroit to hurry along its improvements the energyabsorbing steering column credited with saving a hrefhttpswwwesvnhtsadotgovproceedings24files24esv000291pdf79989 livesa between 1960 and 2012 second only to seat belts on the list of lifesaving technologies upgrades to instrument panels 34477 lives modified windshield glass 9853 lives and improved door locks 42135 lives all predated the legislationppthe nhtsa can legitimately take credit for airbags which it championed relentlessly they are estimated to have saved 76114 lives between 1960 and 2012 thats progress but more than a hrefhttpscrashstatsnhtsadotgovapipublicviewpublication81245690 percent of accidentsa are caused by human error of one kind or another as recently as 1982 more than a hrefhttpspubsniaaanihgovpublicationsarh2716378htm60 percenta of all us traffic fatalities were alcoholrelated as compared to a hrefhttpscrashstatsnhtsadotgovapipublicviewpublication812456less than half of thata today and so the beneficial effects of nhtsa regulations arguably have been offset by the number of lives lost thanks to the federal governments emphasis on the crashworthiness of cars rather than the behavior of driverspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109us_traffic_deaths_per_vmt_vmt_per_capita_and_total_annual_deathspng altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width2264 height1235figcaptionus motorvehicle deaths per billion vmt vehicle miles traveled per cpita and absolute deathsfigcaptionfigurepamerica once had the safest roads in the world but in the wake of emunsafe at any speed emand the passage of the 1966 legislation countries that moved more quickly toward mandatory seatbelts and against drunk driving including canada australia and great britain each reduced their annual fatality counts more quickly in a 2014 published a hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc4103211studya of traffic fatality rates in 25 countries between 1972 and 2011 the united states was found to be a unique outlier with by far the lowest rate of trafficfatality decline among the entire group in 1972 the united states and the netherlands both reached their peak traffic fatality rates over the next three decades us deaths declined by 41 percent in the netherlands the corresponding figure was 81 percentppif in 1966 congress had told the driving public to sober up buckle up and drive right rather than pursuing a largely political campaign against detroit regulators would have something to boast about but in truth ralph nader and the federal government actually seem to have emharmedem the cause of traffic safetyppregulation has its place in the economy generally and in the auto industry particularly there was a legitimate role for washington in the field of traffic safety in the 1960s manufacturers had done more to make vehicles safe than the likes of nader would acknowledge but there were limits to how much safety consumers were willing to buy this was a market failure and market failures are where regulators step in the gsa emdid emstep in with a lighttouch and effective regulatory approach that should have been built uponppthe national safety council made this point to ribicoffs committee insisting that the federal government already had all the power it needed if its goal was to improve auto safety with easily the most comprehensive and cogently argued presentation that ribicoff heardalbeit one delivered to an empty hearing roomthe council noted that the trafficsafety establishment had supported the gsas intervention on car interiors while at the same time warning that secondcollision theory was not a magic bullet there was no such thing as a crashproof vehicle the greatest strides in traffic safety the council insisted had been made through roadengineering and driverbehavior measures the council wanted politicians to move on mandatory seatbelt usage and drunkdriving laws another form of regulation but that would have required congress to impose their will on emvoters emrather than on detroit and so ribicoff wanted nothing to do with the ideappquietly enforced reasonable regulatory measures were never going to satisfy the crusaders of 1966 because most of them had goals extending beyond the problem of saving lives in traffic they wanted to stop americans from caring so much about their damned automobiles and turn their attention to other purposes they hoped to change minds about how far government should intervene in the economy and sought to undermine the veneration of business leaders and the gigantic enterprises theyd built if they could also further their own electoral prospects and the great society legislative record all the betterphrpwhat lessons does this have for tech in 2021 perhaps you have noticed some similarities between the rise of the automobile and the rise of the internet in american lifeppthe automobile was largely a product of american commercial genius wholeheartedly embraced by the american people as a tool for the advancement of personal social and economic welfare automobile culture quickly became american culture and it remade the nation top to bottom without any involvement by the federal government beyond cheerleading and roadbuildingppthe automobilization of america continued until the wonders of driving grew familiar automakers became huge and powerful and the adverse consequences of car culture and the larger commercial economy to which it was central became more apparent critics of the automobile grew in number and eventually focused their criticisms not on the driving public or the national government that had funded the highways and early in its history refused the role of regulator but the greedy corporate entities purportedly harming the populace in a profitdriven projectppit echoes noppand many of the fundamental elements remain unchanged since 1966 there are plenty of enterprising congressmen lawyers and activists anxious to bring big tech to heel heaping upon it blame for every ill associated with the internet as facebooks mark zuckerberg has demonstrated during his visits to congress todays tech executives are often as easily tripped up by grandstanding politicians as were their autoexecutive forebears and in time the fate of their enterprises may well follow the same downward arc that ralph nader and abraham ribicoff helped inflict on detroitppppemthis essay is adapted in part from the authors newly published book a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsackdetroitgeneralamericanenterprisedpb08m4c1xp2the sack of detroit general motors and the end of american enterpriseaempfigurea hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsackdetroitgeneralamericanenterprisedpb08m4c1xp2img srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109unnamed1png altlessons for big tech from ralph naders sack of detroit width400 height583afigure

img altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109nader_in_1966jpgpppuntil recently silicon valley enjoyed relatively high degree freedom government regulation deliberate policy choice responding public enthusiasm possibilities global interconnectedness endless stream easily accessible information congress decreed early online platforms liability thirdparty content flowing pipes tool progress internet freepptech companies harnessed massive energy exerted billions people eager gain presence online share learn entertained work shop web remade united states physically economically socially web culture american culture increasingly global cultureppit wonders internet grew familiar tech companies huge powerful adverse consequences connecting emeveryone emwithout appropriate oversight glaringly apparent internet pornography sex trafficking terrorist recruiting infinite variety scams evasion laws regulations invasion privacy harassment defamation foreign propaganda fake newspptech giants slow confront regrettable purposes platforms systems preferring singlemindedly pursue growth profits predictable capitalists hrefhttpsolllibertyfundorgtitlehollanderdiscoursesupontradeesteem [their] immediate interests common measure good evila truism remarked restorationera english economist dudley north century american revolutionppthe government response predictable mind massive subsidies defense establishment critical techs progress mind congresss handsoff policy instrumental helping google facebook apple amazonem emand online giants scale massively politicians tripping race investigate indict regulate dismember tech companies solely responsible internets illsppthe justice department federal trade commission agencies federal state levels pursing big tech anticompetitive activity abuse dominance promoting hate speech ruining conventional media labor abuses invading privacy users generally poisoning public sphere president joe biden hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210420technologyglobaltippingpointtechhtmlstacked administration trustbustersa emnew york times emputs nations including china australia members european union attack leading governments reports theem timesem moving limit power tech companies urgency breadth single industry experienced beforeppwhere end maybe investigators regulators reasonable prudent certainly ought possible balance need curb techs excesses concern finances reputations future prospects companies targeted welfare investors employees growth competitiveness american economy advisable given whats happened internet solely implicate silicon valley general social problem companies governments individual users bear responsibilityppbut dont count authorities taking correct course action weve beforephrpthe great tsunami corporate regulation struck america halfcentury ago 1965 regulated industries united states represented seven percent americas gnp 1978 30 percent hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidyuzpy6jquticprintsecfrontcoverdqlizabethcohentwentyfiveconsumerandenvironmentalregulatorybillshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewiyw_re2tfyahwmflkfhqt0aasq6af6bagieaivsnippetqtwentyfive20consumerffalsetwentyfive substantive consumer environmental regulatory billsa passed time hundreds considered victimized consumer rage activists politicians faced american capitalism adversarial pose armed shocking facts moral indignation hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabookside7qpgcg9ogicpgpa349lpgpa349dqbettyfurnessyougaveusnylonbutdidne28099ttellusitmeltsyougaveusinsectspraybutyoudidne28099ttellusitwouldkillthecatyougaveusplasticbsourceblotsmmtmmgd8k3sigacfu3u1rus4hu1jgm8v37x31bjl_m2x7wghlensaxved2ahukewii1onxdfyahumtn8khbetctmq6af6bagceamvonepageqbetty20furness20you20gave20us20nylon20but20didne28099t20tell20us20it20melts20you20gave20us20insect20spray2c20but20you20didne28099t20tell20us20it20would20kill20the20cat20you20gave20us20plastic20bffalsesaid actor betty furnessa emswing time emfame whod lyndon johnsons special assistant consumer affairspblockquoteyou gave nylon didnt tell melts gave insect spray didnt tell kill cat gave plastic bags didnt warn killed babies gave detergents didnt tell polluting rivers streams gave pill didnt tell guinea pigsblockquotepall activity hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidyuzpy6jquticpgpa354dqlizabethcohen22justthesparkneeded22naderhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewiduozfxdfyahvstd8khwb7bnuq6af6bageeaivonepageqlizabeth20cohen2022just20the20spark20needed2220naderffalseconcluded lizabeth cohena leading historian american consumer activism traced ralph naders twoyear battle general motors mid60s issue auto safety naders success spark needed produce major conflagration regulation government intervention commercial economyppthere cloak mythology nader supposedly lone authoractivist took giants detroit demonstrated cars death traps convinced washington regulate automotive sector nader credited saving hundreds thousands lives autosafety campaign truth legend embarrass gm encourage federal government regulate detroit thats far goesppnader product times educated princeton harvard law school 1950s influenced array writers thinkers chafed economic orthodoxies eisenhower years ikes highest priority economic growth maintained constant stoking consumer economy people bought sold stronger economy better americas chances outpacing global rival soviet union nutshell socalled cold war consensus republicans democrats embraced redblooded american said owe countrymen double ate double smoked wear shoesppsociologist c wright mills opponent consensus hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidkn_oauktbq4cprintsecfrontcoverdqpowerelitecwrightmillshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqpower20elite20c20wright20millsffalseconsidered selfserving inventiona americas power elites government business enriching enslaving people consumerism economist john kenneth galbraith hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbuihylwxhuwcprintsecfrontcoverdqgalbraiththeaffluentsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqgalbraith20the20affluent20societyffalseshared millss skepticisma asked economic growth washingtons highest priority people rich americans enjoyed material standard living unexampled history actually needed consumer goods barrages advertising necessary convince themppto galbraiths mind america solved ageold problems economic scarcity insecurity time shift attention economic growth better governance commercial production alcohol comic books mouthwash narcotics pornography automobiles public goods schools hospitals urban redevelopment sanitation parks playgroundsppautomobiles hottest commodities consumer economy accounting retail dollars largest share nations advertising provided critics best illustrations americas material excesses social ills lost mills positions eisenhowers cabinet filled general motors men galbraith thought crazy washington worry privatesector growth company general motors worlds largest admired industrial enterprise enjoying record profits funding enormous advertising budgets unassailable probability immortalppboth saw obsession automobiles 14 garage time consumers looking trade symptomatic americas backward priorities hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbuihylwxhuwcprintsecfrontcoverdqgalbraiththeaffluentsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvsnippetqthe20family20which20takes20its20mauveffalsewrote galbraitha family takes mauve cerise airconditioned powersteered powerbraked automobile tour passes cities badly paved hideous litter blighted buildings billboards posts wires long underground reflect vaguely curious unevenness blessingspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109meteorjpg altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width787 height1024figurepnader studied mills princeton familiar works galbraith young intellectuals activists shared rejection cold war consensus anticorporate worldview shared intuition effort reduce influence consumerism american life forge new american agenda concerned primarily public welfare benefit putting big dent detroit issue automobile safety instrument nader use dentphrpthe consensus safety automobile history car harmless best way drivers passengers maimed killed engineer better roads enforce laws preach driver educationthe socalled threee approach early 1920s massproduced cars appearance late 1950s method sufficient reduce annual american road fatalities miles driven 80 percentppbut america growing people driving absolute number traffic fatalities remained range 34000 39000 1950s frustration medical community dealt heavy flow injured crippled paralyzed braindamaged dead victims automobile crashes emergency rooms operating theatersppit american physicians brought real challenge triplee approach mid1950s following example pioneering safety researchers divided analysis auto crash parts initial collision vehicle hits ditch vehicle moose second collision occupants crashing vehicle thrown dashboard windshield steering wheel unforgiving interior flung road perspective drivers initial mistake misfortune caused injury death socalled second collision human steel glass pavement followed vehicle interiors designed better protect people crashes road carnage reducedppthe appeal approach doctors obvious faced body stretcher usually idea happened road care dealt entirely consequences second collision began demanding car manufacturers interiors automobiles safer crashworthy recommendations pad dashboards eliminate finely beveled metal edges install collapsible steering wheel columns safety glass improve door latchesppwith medical communitys help secondcollision theory caught attention handful media outlets odd congressman chicago lawyer named harold katz specialty torts branch law dealing personal injuries resulting wrongful acts necessarily crimes read physicians saying second collisions hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable1337583refreqidexcelsior3af3c0a3a603f70a7f3f08eec4e8b1bf8fwrote piece subjecta emharvard law review emin 1956 entitled quotliability automobile manufacturers unsafe design passenger carsquotppit occurred katz legal implications secondcollision theory immense putting humans cars like shipping teacups loose barrel doctors maintained werent automobile manufacturers negligent failing better protect occupants unreasonable risk injury death surely auto engineers designers safety expertise duty build safest practicable products consumers clear katz 40000 americans dying roads year automakers sitting duck lawyers suing lethal designs vehiclesppkatzs article implicating largest richest companies america tens thousands annual deaths catnip personalinjury bar thenlaw student ralph nader got fellow id heard ecstatic hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksredir_escyidscbsaaaamaajdqeditions3axoyivoasocacfocussearchwithinvolumeqquiteestaticsaid katz nadera told utterly astonished absolutely delighted article didnt prior notion tort law reform auto industry idea captivated himppsoon graduating harvard nader hrefhttpswwwthenationcomarticlearchivesafecaryoucantbuyplaced article theem nationema building katzs insights saw triplee approach auto safety wrongheaded described plot led detroit detract attention negligentlydesigned product claimed automakers knowledge technological means accidents safe callous cheap itfar easier blame drivers accidentspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at84933ampng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width3010 height1606figurepnader outpaced katz suggesting automobiles designed dangerous speed suggested conspiracy silence fact people dying annually roads newspapers broadcasters dared discuss national health emergency fear losing car advertising universities uninterested researching subject widespread amorality scholarly elite politicians timid people needed protected indiscretion vanity susceptible detroits sparkling roaring deathtrapsppnader keen tort lawyers attack automakers secondcollision arguments interested political implications katzs claims believed secondcollision theory gave washington permission regulate detroitppwithin couple weeks naders article landing theem nationem young daniel patrick moynihan academic placed hrefhttpswwwunzcomprintreporter1959apr3000001a similar piecea april 30th 1959 edition magazine called theem reporterem moynihan learned secondcollision theory years aide new york governor averell harriman phd history careful data nader excited prospects regulating detroitpblockquoteif industry rise responsibilities entire matter removed jurisdiction solved methods employed urgent public health problem automobile magnate wonders mean run chicago watch government officials white coats giving safety ratings sides beef roll packinghouse production linesblockquotepmoynihans article caused stir naders signed contract knopf write book auto safety selfdescribed hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksiddxtwnbfhzgcpgpa34lpgpa34dqe2809cimpairifnotinfactdestroythepersonalandsocialsymbolismoftheamericanautomobilewhichisasprecioustothosewhomanufacturethemastothosewhobuytheme2809dsourceblotsrqt2etqsrnsigacfu3u1nwpgjl8gpmovxzgpwp8wvvhbnqqhlensaxved2ahukewio2pju2o_yahxnfvkfhuuvaugq6af6bagdeamvonepageqe2809cimpair20if20not20in20fact20destroy20the20personal20and20social20symbolism20of20the20american20automobile20which20is20as20precious20to20those20who20manufacture20them20as20to20those20who20buy20theme2809dffalsegoala write descriptions pain loss powerful advance vehicle safety impair fact destroy personal social symbolism american automobile precious manufacture buy themppmore ambitiously moynihan like galbraith believed cutting general motors size reduce corporate influence american life shift focus government encouraging consumption private goods encouraging development public goods hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksiday7taaaamaajqdanielpatrickmoynihan22thecentralconcernsofamericansocietyarenolongerinthehandsoffreeenterpriseandthatfreeenterpriseisnolongerinthehandsofmenwho22expecttoleadsocietydqdanielpatrickmoynihan22thecentralconcernsofamericansocietyarenolongerinthehandsoffreeenterpriseandthatfreeenterpriseisnolongerinthehandsofmenwho22expecttoleadsocietyhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewilof7mznfyahwtelkfhbvideyq6af6bagdeaidreamed time whena central concerns american society longer hands free enterprise free enterprise longer hands men expect lead societyphrpmoynihan worked john f kennedy 1960 election presidency rewarded job aide labor secretary arthur goldberg demands career washington prevented delivering book knopf moynihan didnt drop issue auto safety hed begun friendly correspondence nader articles published jfk assassinated lyndon johnson began planning aggressively liberal agenda moynihan invited friend join labor department work report auto safetyppnader happening life jumped chance months labor powers bosss office collect information conduct interviews hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidiwd4ez3g_vgcpgpa421lpgpa421dq22areportonthecontextconditionandrecommendeddirectionoffederalactivityinhighwaysafety22sourceblots9e_txp0xessigacfu3u1oq_go74hp5evgxmzpttdmutp2qhlensaxved2ahukewikik7p2e_yahxmgfkfhs2yc7sq6af6bagdeamvonepageq22a20report20on20the20context2c20condition2c20and20recommended20direction20of20federal20activity20in20highway20safety22ffalseproduceda 234page draft book moynihan hadnt found time write copies ema report context condition recommended direction federal activity highway safetyem printed moynihans secretary expressed doubt read document widely circulated inside government emno oneem read moynihan later commissioned primarily advocating federal regulation automakers 234page report 99 pages notes upppwhile nader toiling report moynihan learned secondcollision theory gaining traction certain congressional offices abraham ribicoff liberal democratic senator representing connecticut governor state experience consumer issues hed received generous press main congressional champion author environmentalist rachel carson 1963 having won office slim margin votes eager build momentumpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109mediumsizedjpeg1jpg altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width600 height478figcaptionabraham ribicoff campaign 1962figcaptionfigurepperusing emnew york timesem morning december 1964 ribicoff came article accident research secondcollision theory anonymous researcher quoted saying detroit wherewithal build crashproof car couldnt botheredppit time id heard car factor accidents hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0idjgecm9ntb8ecdqribicoffitwasthefirsttimeidheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryfocussearchwithinvolumeqitwasthefirsttimei27dheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryhe saida intrigued theory second collision new concept meppribicoff telephoned aide jerome sonosky asked schedule hearings role vehicle automobile crashesppthis means taking detroit hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0idjgecm9ntb8ecdqribicoffitwasthefirsttimeidheardofthecarasafactorinaccidentsmccarryfocussearchwithinvolumeqthismeanstakingondetroitsaid sonoskyappcan asked ribicoffppsonosky moynihan quickly found sonosky introduced naderppnader walked looking looks hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa80lpgpa80dqnadersonoskynaderwalkedinlookingthenashelooksnowsallowfacedwearinghislongovercoat22sourceblotsasiply8hqosigacfu3u1xngoqcnbsowvgsu6fmmve2cbggqhlensaxved2ahukewibuevjztfyahu6fvkfhf4schmq6af6bagdeamvonepageqnader20sonosky20nader20walked20in20looking20then20as20he20looks20now20sallow20faced20wearing20his20long20overcoat22ffalsesaid sonosky latera sallow faced wearing long overcoat carrying thousand pieces paper arm message auto industry right produce unsafe cars talked hours aspects issue itppsaid hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidom4heaaaqbajpgpa322lpgpa322dqralphnadere2809cthistownisfullofguyswhowanderaroundwithstacksofpaperundertheirarmstryingtoseesenatorsorbustintomagazineofficessourceblotsz9rtf4r29sigacfu3u2stjqqdeuk9pgwo2vzqdhvplbdrahlensaxved2ahukewi54qlfztfyahwugfkfhxyha9gq6af6bagdeamvonepageqralph20nader20e2809cthis20town20is20full20of20guys20who20wander20around20with20stacks20of20paper20under20their20arms20trying20to20see20senators20or20bust20into20magazine20officesffalsea journalist knew nadera town guys wander stacks paper arms trying senators bust magazine offices ralph got guardsppsonosky left meeting nader immediately called ribicoffppwe struck gold hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa80dqsonoskyribicoff22wejuststruckgold22hlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewj946v4ztfyahucelkfhd5bcysq6af6bagfeaivonepageqsonosky20ribicoff2022we20just20struck20gold22ffalsehe saidappwhat meanppi met somebody knows auto safety anybody ive come dont run town gathering experts found himppnader department labor payroll hired unpaid advisor ribicoffs subcommittee federal role traffic safety begin hearings early 1965 practice meant moynihan nader labor payroll half year report produced volunteer ribicoffppnader prime resource period hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidjgecm9ntb8ecdqmccarrycitizennaderfocussearchwithinvolumeqprimeresourcesaid sonoskya didnt need pair meet talk hours issues questions ask witnesses handle technical material shut hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidjgecm9ntb8ecdqmccarrycitizennaderfocussearchwithinvolumeqhewasfixatedsaid sonoskya fixated information tactics developed circulated offices ribicoff moynihan freshman senator robert f kennedy expected participate proceedingsppseveral important things happened ribicoffs hearings underway washingtons general services administration gsa responsible procurement federal fleet authorized congress require hundreds thousands automobiles purchased include padded dashboards stronger windshields safety equipment application federal purchasing power inspiration littleknown effective alabama congressman named kenneth roberts prompted detroit grumbling adopt cars virtually slate changes automobile interiors requested american medical communityppthis development slow ribicoff began hearings march 22nd 1965 important arguments hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq13q1traffic20safety20establishmenthe claimed existed americaa traffic safety establishment including police forces state traffic commissions national safety council organizations influence detroit provided funding organizations representation boards establishment misleading nation blaming drivers road carnage secondcollision theory proved real problem negligently designed american automobilesppribicoffs second argument detroit knew cars crashproof couldnt bothered public interest required washington step impose automobile safety standardspphis days hearings didnt planned senators whod agreed sit ribicoffs panel largely absent media witnesses federal departments commerce health education welfare testified saw need federal involvement auto safety praised automakers general motors particular leadership issueppdaniel patrick moynihan representing department labor notable exception hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq294q1moynihan20has20done20almost20nothing20about20the20problem20of20traffic20safety22expressed viewa america problem traffic safety triplee approach said nonsense instead trying reform 80 million americans drivers incorrigibly reckless wheel better concentrate handful automobile executives detroit hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidzxkbdwaaqbajpgpa120lpgpa120dqdanielpatrickmoynihan22considerableobtuseness22sourceblotslibvm4genzsigacfu3u3eixxjgmuutkfngo05ash6n_qgbghlensaxved2ahukewji6upy0dfyahuxheakhxvzcuiq6af6bagceamvonepageqdaniel20patrick20moynihan2022considerable20obtuseness22ffalseconsiderable obtusenessa executives believed safety didnt sell cars plied unwitting public bloated overpowered dangerous models crashproof vehicles save lives federal hammer required force changeppan dispirited ribicoff hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq338skin2021q1you20make20a20lot20of20sense20in20almost20everything20you20do20mr20moynihanwas overjoyed testimonya lot sense mr moynihan appreciate coming hereppwhile room hear testimony changed second round ribicoffs hearings joined rostrum senate colleagues room abuzz spectators photographers reporters excitement scheduled appearances witnesses detroit frederic g donner chairman board general motors james m roche president company barely distinguishable eminences sat witness table gray heads whisper news photographs appear conjoinedppsome gm thought mistake executives dignify ribicoffs hearings presence better send engineers lawyers draw crowds intelligible general public chairman donner anxious best foot forward auto safety roche prepared rehearsed appearance gm intended goodfaith donation 1 million traffic safety research mitppin opening statements gm men professed concerned number traffic deaths america spoke improvements safety glass door latches steel roofs equipment use crash sleds crash dummies highspeed photography better understand dynamics collisions participation crashinjury research projects conducted recognized experts cornell university parties boasted meeting gsas imposed safety requirements ahead scheduleppto preempt questions gm hadnt rushed install new safety technology moment available hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq697skin2021q1donner20a20climate20of20public20acceptancedonner explained company operated ina climate public acceptance people willing pay safety balk forced increased cost new safety features tended available options later theyd proved standard equipment pointed willing pay turn signals introduced time consumers sold utility standard equipment cars states primary responsibility regulating commerce began mandate themppas building crashproof vehicles gm honchos skeptical improvements said limits technology crashproof vehicle realm possibility driver education law enforcement road engineering importantppwhile gm men laid case nader ribicoff panels expertinchief sat door chamber passing slips paper senators aide inside supplying information ideas lines attackppthe executives having easy time new york senator robert kennedy joined proceedings late better decade kennedy young senate aide joseph mccarthy badgered suspected communists hearing rooms lost step proceeded steal ribicoffs describing gms gift mit publicity stunt hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq800skin2021q1donner20kennedy20i20don27t20believe20it20is20a20matter20of20what20we20have20spentand asking chairman donnera company spent annually safety researchppsir dont believe matter spent said donnerppwell interested asking youppwe dont know senator add things upppyou dontppbecause scattered ppgeneral motors doesnt know add upppdonner tried explain money spent research automobile manufacturers association directions asked kennedy wanted know pure research development testing reliability mattersppi ask specifics said kennedy confident witnesses run money spent find children fell automobile faulty latch lockppthe executives answerpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at85651ampng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width1140 height1088figcaptiongm general counsel aloysius power testifying senate subcommittee 1959figcaptionfigurephow children fallen general motors cars asked kennedy yearppi dont know find said donnerppkennedy toyed executives asking questions knew unable answer safety spending taunting failure roche finally coughed hard number estimating company spent 125 million previous year external safety research kennedy went bloodppwhat profit general motors yearpproche answered dont think ppi like answer think entitled know figure spent 125 million understand aspect safety like know profit isppdonner tried brush kennedy saying attendance discuss safety financesppwhat profit general motors year repeated senatorppi ask associates said donnerppcould pleasepp1700 million replied rocheppwhat asked kennedyppabout 15 billion thinkppone billion asked kennedypp17 billion said donnerppabout 15 billonppyesppyou 17 billion yearppthat correctppand spent 1 million thisppthe juxtaposition fatal kennedy berated executives making spending little safety 40000 americans dying road year donner roche tried explain 125 million figure external safety spending sum total companys safety expenditures fact specify sum total negated point hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq803skin2021q1donner20kennedy20i20cannot20believe20general20motors20does20not20have20this20informationbrought abuse kennedya believe general motors informationppribicoff kennedy brought proceedings close congratulating commitment improving traffic safety individuals organizations nominally responsible safety sitting handsphrpeven gm insiders acknowledged executives clobbered appearance emwall street journalem reported july 20th 1965 astonishingly illprepared declared performance dismal newspaper quoted congressman saying wouldnt believed bad gm later tallied spending safety research testing engineering driver training 193 million annually time damage doneppit theyd beaten rfk clear gm officials executive automakers targets disturbing rapidly growing factdistorting campaign indict motor vehicle design major contributor traffic deaths injuriesppthis new territory gm 1953 companys president charles e wilson nominated eisenhowers secretary defense hrefhttpswwwoxfordreferencecomview101093acref97801918666920010001qoroed600011619told confirmation hearinga years thought good country good general motors vice versa difference exist company big goes welfare country contribution nation considerableppa lot interpretations offered wilsons statement thought saying america general motors team looking interests single restatement cold war consensus thriving commercial economy centered automobile industry sustain americas unsurpassed standards living geopolitical leadership commonality interests longer heldppgeneral motors stepped safety efforts publicity months following hearings waited nations attention shift highway death tolls gleaming new automobiles rolling detroits assembly lines disappointed senators kennedy ribicoff spent rest 1965 making speeches writing articles traffic safety failure detroit produce crashproof carppthe senators criticisms echoed growing chorus tort lawyers theyd filed 100 suits alleging chevrolet corvair general motorss innovative rearengine compact negligently designed gust wind tight curve bump road cause driver lose control speeds low 22 mph resulting severe injury death lawyers testifying state legislatures corvair symptomatic detroits indifference auto safety willingness sacrifice human life pad profits planting stories tabloids chevrolets rearengine death trappfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at85912ampng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width1464 height1842figurepamidst came notices naders hrefhttpswwwamazoncomunsafeanyspeeddesignedautomobiledp0670741590emunsafe speed designedin dangers american automobileemaem emthe book opened gory details corvair traffic road accidents repeated arguments car lawyers suing gm nader hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqgreatestactscalled corvaira centurys greatest acts industrial irresponsibility claimed gm easily car safe dollars worth safety improvements greedy pay themppthe author went present detroits executives amoral sociopathic determined dazzle car buyers expensive new paint colors gadgets installing weak brakes fragile glass unpadded dashboards defective hood latches sticky accelerators inferior tires faulty equipment got away maintained auto industry operated outside law meant free federal regulationppkennedys attack gm executives safety spending got lengthy treatment like ribicoff hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqcloselyknittrafficsafetynader excoriated thea closely knit traffic safety establishment close ties automakers suggested alarming conspiracy medical professionals police chiefs insurance agents autorepair shops funeral homes financial interest dependent steady supply highway injuries fatalities thousands jobs depend death toll hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksnewbks1newbks_redir0redir_escyidskk9aqaaiaajdqralphnaderunsafeatanyspeedfocussearchwithinvolumeqremunerationliessaid nadera [this] remuneration lies talent energies gopfigureiframe allowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedni9hq0_mhy0start47featureoembed width200 height113iframefigurepalthough emunsafe speedem generally tendentious nader valid points detroits methods products media appearances star appearance ribicoffs panel nader occasionally book comparing americanbuilt cars sitting told cbs 1966 roomful knives present romantic figure lone wolf material possessions lived cheap rooming house work ascetic lifestyle accepted proof devotion public good annual salary labor 15000 national household income time 6590ppweeks release naders book tort lawyers brought safety crusade new pitch hrefhttpsbabelhathitrustorgcgiptidumn31951d02130665yview1upseq1368skin2021q1stop20murder20by20motoremstop murder motorem publicity campaigna use word murder echoed naders oftmade suggestion deliberate detroits creation lethal vehicles ribicoff moynihan kennedy president johnson endorsed campaignppgm officials bewildered animus directed company alarmed senators ribicoff kennedy moynihan nader corvair plaintiffs defense bar apparently sharing information arguments collaborating tacticspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210905at111941pm3png altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width500 height592figurepnader worked ribicoff moynihan known share research tort lawyers center cabal knew claimed lone wolf employed inside government better connections quarters gm trained lawyer hed apparently abandoned practice hed written book present journalist political actor consultant setting expert witnesspphe gm company couldnt bead hell guy gm attorney asked colleaguesppno individual general motors claim credit idea end 1965 company laid plans hire investigator brief discover naders angle dig available dirt stupid moveppgms investigators legitimate work turning solid information naders connection tort lawyers handsome salary labor purchase ford stock previous gms appearance ribicoff playing sides table senator posing independent witness senate subcommittee helping direct hearings came close learning nader written book public payroll moynihan labor department effectively paying long original report filed support senate subcommitteeppbut investigators pretending checking nader prospective employer asked friends acquaintances personal life habits missteps raised suspicions causing detectives outed gms executives called ribicoff panel issued humiliating apology lost support remained company washingtonppthe johnson administration proposed create new department transportation bring general motors rest detroit federal regulation set standards auto safety said echoing naders arguments statement hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidhpqe8urdgqycpgpa90lpgpa90dqthereisnosinglestatisticofamericanlifemoreshockingthanthetollofdeadandinjuredonourhighwayse2809dsourceblotshl66wluc9sigacfu3u3dj3k4jttyrthv0clavmr9fjnwhlensaxved2ahukewj89rdt5u_yahumu98khsq7ag8q6af6bagceamvonepageqthere20is20no20single20statistic20of20american20life20more20shocking20than20the20toll20of20dead20and20injured20on20our20highwayse2809dffalsethere single statistic american life shocking toll dead injured highwaysappsenators congressmen fought johnsons pieces auto safety legislation stringent possible pass november 1966 midterm electionsppelizabeth drew hrefhttpsepdfpubcorporatepoweramericandemocracyandtheautomobileindustryhtmlwritinga theem atlantic monthlyem stunned radical departure governments traditional respectful handsoff approach auto industry attributed change deep concern auto safety realization automobile safety good politics people loved cars loved automobile company result political carsafety derby politicians jockeying position frontppcongressmen interviewed dan cordtz covered story emfortuneemem emshowed little interest complicated problem traffic safety merits secondcollision theory voted address publicpolicy problem punish gm poor performance ribicoffs committee spying nader hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbfssbwaaqbajpgpa104lpgpa104dqe2809cmanystrongsupportersofautosafetylegislationagree22sourceblotsasiqkracmhsigacfu3u0b8zc2hvr3aupe2odcmtpwauq9rghlensaxved2ahukewjgycl95_yahwrgvkfhxm2a_gq6af6bagceamvonepageqe2809cmany20strong20supporters20of20auto20safety20legislation20agree22ffalsewrote cordtza strong supporters auto safety legislation agree gms conduct important single factor establishing congressional climate conducive passage tough safety billppnone write intended whitewash excuse gms behavior corporate sector generally general motors history bullying predatory behavior definition public good broader recognized time narrow good deserved slapped public sphere private investigators seek personal dirt naderppbut alibi congress approve hasty sweeping punitive counterproductive regulations americas important industry decision federal involvement auto industry merits proposed legislation legislators displayed minimal curiosity safety issues primarily interested taking corporate giant fight legislative credit reckless treatment detroit nader friends imagined automakers treatment consumersphrpjohnsons hrefhttpswwwencyclopediacomhistoryencyclopediasalmanacstranscriptsandmapsnationaltrafficandmotorvehiclesafetyact1966national traffic motor vehicle safety act 1966a deliberately conceived shift focus americas concern road safety drivers vehicles directed newly formed national highway traffic safety administration nhtsa primarily concerned crashworthiness automobiles soon imposed 50 vehicle safety standards automakers won ability force recalls automakers focus nhtsa narrower president jimmy carter appointed naders colleague joan claybrook head air bags holy grail bent crashproof vehicles overwhelming focus agencys efforts technology ready claims efficacy exaggeratedppnader safety crusaders opened floodgates enterprising congressmen campaign corporate recklessness 25 consumer environmental regulatory bills passed wake traffic safety bills expanded regulatory state food cosmetics credit instruments packaging advertising monopolies pricing practices air water pollution number people staffing federal regulatory agencies tripled government spending regulatory enforcement increased factor roughly period additionally 1975 50 states created consumerprotection agencies 39 passed consumer protection statutesppthese congressmen joined washington new generation activists 1977 83 public interest groups operating capital half arriving naders triumphppmeanwhile courts curtailed legal defenses available manufacturers expanding liability standards cover product malfunction allowed greater scope recovery noneconomic damages pain suffering permitted classaction procedures private law claims aggregated hundreds thousands effectively industrialized torts measures boon entrepreneurial attorneys arguing harms behalf victimized american consumer 1950 1990 hrefhttpswwwcasactorgsitesdefaultfilesoldstudynotes_towerswatsontortcosttrendspdfdirect tort costs grewa astonishing average annual rate 113 percent 18 billion year 1302 billion times rate growth economyppaltogether congressmen lawyers activists represented enormous shift americas entrepreneurial energies economic growth identifying combatting growths negative consequences hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidba8mdwaaqbajpgpa590dqrobertgordoncreatinggoodstofightingbadshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewih9fze3nfyahuzfvkfhyzzax4q6af6bagheaivonepageqrobert20gordon20creating20goods20to20fighting20badsffalseas author robert gordon ita creating goods fighting bads end american enterprise form taken 200 years countrys historyppit happened breathtaking speed 1964 hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidf8qqbgaaqbajpgpa50dqrichardhofstadtertheexistenceandworkingsofthecorporationsarelargelyacceptedandinthemaintheyareassumedtobefundamentallybenignhlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxved2ahukewirmttp3nfyahxtelkfha9mbw4q6af6bagkeaivonepageqrichard20hofstadter20the20existence20and20workings20of20the20corporations20are20largely20accepted2c20and20in20the20main20they20are20assumed20to20be20fundamentally20benignffalsehistorian richard hofstadter writtena existence workings corporations largely accepted main assumed fundamentally benign public approval business peaked 1966 55 percent surveyed americans expressed hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidtwihpaksz8ecprintsecfrontcoverdqvogeldavidfluctuatingfortuneshlennewbks1newbks_redir0saxredir_escyvonepageqa20great20deal20of20confidenceffalsea great deal confidencea leaders major corporations 96 percent agreed free enterprise america great 1971 27 percent americans expressed great deal confidence business leadership 1974 figure 16 percentppsales corvair collapsed twothirds gms private eyes discovered production entirely years despite fact suits corvair lost dropped settled court low amountsppnader admitted characterization car uniquely dangerous negligently designed wrong court case vindicated cars design nhtsa pressure nader hrefhttpsntrlntisgovntrldashboardsearchresultstitledetailpb211014xhtmlsubjected car intensive testing founda handling stability performance corvair result abnormal potential loss control rollover good performance contemporary vehicles foreign domesticppand fate single rearengine compact car insufficient change future gm safety crusade severe damage companys overall brand 1965 gm comfortably atop fortune 500 rankings new model year broken records sales volume revenue profits independent consumer surveys showed gm considered americans undisputed leader auto industry easily powerful successful admired corporation gallup found gm ahead american firm terms products corporate performance contributions society safety issue public mind americans blamed bad drivers blood road believed cars built protection mindppall changed confluence ribicoffs hearings publication emunsafe speedem emstop murder motorem campaign leaked news white house preparing bill regulate automakers february 1966 month gms detectives discovered gm sales dropped precipitously nearly gm nameplate affected corporations reversal drag industry net decline significant break remarkable fiveyear run detroit despite widespread discounting gm models sales percent end yearppthe damage reflected gms share price important metric far management concerned hit high 105 weeks 1966 dropped 101 release early february sales data fell 95 gms detectives exposed end 1966 traded 66 representing 37 percent loss shareholder value markets reliable performerppthe familiar narrative detroits decline takes 1973 oil crisis critical juncture sudden surge oil prices year prompted large number american car buyers abandon detroits massive expensive cars smaller fuelefficient imports japan germany american manufacturers blind inferior quality vehicles failed meet challenge imports took american marketpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210908at10258pmpng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width1884 height1266figcaptiona seattlearea gas station forced close oil crisisfigcaptionfigurepbut imports begun trending sharply 1966 right time ribicoff nader opened campaign convince americans detroit murdering unsafe vehicles happened despite imports generally safe poorer quality americanmade cars real advances japanese manufacturing led honda came late 1970sppwhy didnt detroit introduce hot new compacts beat foreign invasion thats theyd late 1950s volkswagen beetle led import push peaked 12 percent market gm announced compact corvair ford chrysler introduced compacts imports trended downward early 1960s stalwart beetle remain popularpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at92355ampng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width1386 height582figcaptionforeignbrand import share passengercar sales 1955 1980figcaptionfigurepin 1970 car companies tried respond time innovative fourcylinder vehicles led chevrolets vega business environment changed markedly preceding decade gm dealing slimmer profits lower share price risk averse following relentless attacks innovative rearengine corvair finances weak new cars designed built cheap showedppafter 1966 general motors like automobile returned road bad crash looked okay outside ran properly stability confidence consistent growth enjoyed 1966 return gm comprised half domestic auto industry detroit eitherppin 1960 gm begun investing vast sums money overseas expansion underlying goal dominating world auto markets executives series speeches changing nature global commerce united states needed lift head domestic scene hold position leadership markets tomorrow donner company chair wanted government international trade bodies foster global business environment encouraged private investment free movement capital reduction punitive taxation trade barrierspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210908at10933pmpng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width1330 height1714figurepinstead executing global plan donners company spent decade war washington safety environmental standards instead helping automakers ambitions governments japan germany helping domestic manufacturers president johnson anxious reduce foreign trade deficit largely making signed executive order prohibiting investors acquiring 10 percent foreign businesses world car market cleared japan germanyphrpthere arguing ralph nader safety crusader 49163 fatalities american roads 1965 year passage johnsons traffic safety legislation publichealth catastrophe reducing death toll perfectly legitimate goal public policy question remains safety crusaders solve problem save lives saved interventionppnader nhtsa hrefhttpswwwautosafetyorgon50thanniversaryofralphnadersunsafeatanyspeedsafetygroupreportsdecliningdeathrateshavesaved35millionlivesclaima legislative regulatory apparatus created 1966 saved 35 million lives 50year period followed nhtsa calling hrefhttpsbooksgooglecabooksidbth9dwaaqbajpgpa27lpgpa27dqnhtsaoneofthemosteffectivepublichealthandsafetyeffortsofthepastcenturysourceblotsutvkzbsiqusigacfu3u2xexdcj53zrvigckp28vgajd38zwhlensaxved2ahukewia2or24nfyahxqguakha03c6yq6af6bagleamvonepageqnhtsa20one20of20the20most20effective20public20health20and20safety20efforts20of20the20past20centuryffalseone effective public health safety efforts past centurya data support claim statistically speaking safety progress halfcentury 1966 legislation halfcentury followed 35million figure includes fatality reductions unrelated vehiclesafety technology associated mandatory seatbelt usage drunkdriving lawspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109screenshot20210914at92729ampng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width700 height249figcaptionalcoholrelated nonalcoholrelated traffic fatalities united states 19822002figcaptionfigurepseatbelts credited contemporary researchers hrefhttpswwwesvnhtsadotgovproceedings24files24esv000291pdfsaving livesa vehicle safety technologies 1960 2021 devices installed pre1966 automakers pressure state legislatures maligned trafficsafety establishment people congress mandatory lacked courage impose use nations driversppthis invidious effects secondcollision theory rush blame detroit traffic deaths gave drivers free pass fact nader vociferously hrefhttpswwwupicomarchives19831206consumeradvocateralphnadertodayrejectedtheautoindustrys7283439534800opposeda mandatory seatbelt usage grounds people incorrigible behaviorcontrol laws work hrefhttpswwwupicomarchives19831206consumeradvocateralphnadertodayrejectedtheautoindustrys7283439534800we learned prohibitiona told government hearing 1983 drunk driving hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20010611wrongturntolda journalist skeptical prohibiting culture deeply embedded thought ingrainedppof new safety standards applied nhtsa american cars fact effective instigated 1966 unheralded regulators gsa whod quietly purchasing power nudge detroit hurry improvements energyabsorbing steering column credited saving hrefhttpswwwesvnhtsadotgovproceedings24files24esv000291pdf79989 livesa 1960 2012 second seat belts list lifesaving technologies upgrades instrument panels 34477 lives modified windshield glass 9853 lives improved door locks 42135 lives predated legislationppthe nhtsa legitimately credit airbags championed relentlessly estimated saved 76114 lives 1960 2012 thats progress hrefhttpscrashstatsnhtsadotgovapipublicviewpublication81245690 percent accidentsa caused human error kind recently 1982 hrefhttpspubsniaaanihgovpublicationsarh2716378htm60 percenta traffic fatalities alcoholrelated compared hrefhttpscrashstatsnhtsadotgovapipublicviewpublication812456less half thata today beneficial effects nhtsa regulations arguably offset number lives lost thanks federal governments emphasis crashworthiness cars behavior driverspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109us_traffic_deaths_per_vmt_vmt_per_capita_and_total_annual_deathspng altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width2264 height1235figcaptionus motorvehicle deaths billion vmt vehicle miles traveled cpita absolute deathsfigcaptionfigurepamerica safest roads world wake emunsafe speed emand passage 1966 legislation countries moved quickly mandatory seatbelts drunk driving including canada australia great britain reduced annual fatality counts quickly 2014 published hrefhttpswwwncbinlmnihgovpmcarticlespmc4103211studya traffic fatality rates 25 countries 1972 2011 united states found unique outlier far lowest rate trafficfatality decline entire group 1972 united states netherlands reached peak traffic fatality rates decades deaths declined 41 percent netherlands corresponding figure 81 percentppif 1966 congress told driving public sober buckle drive right pursuing largely political campaign detroit regulators boast truth ralph nader federal government actually emharmedem cause traffic safetyppregulation place economy generally auto industry particularly legitimate role washington field traffic safety 1960s manufacturers vehicles safe likes nader acknowledge limits safety consumers willing buy market failure market failures regulators step gsa emdid emstep lighttouch effective regulatory approach built uponppthe national safety council point ribicoffs committee insisting federal government power needed goal improve auto safety easily comprehensive cogently argued presentation ribicoff heardalbeit delivered hearing roomthe council noted trafficsafety establishment supported gsas intervention car interiors time warning secondcollision theory magic bullet thing crashproof vehicle greatest strides traffic safety council insisted roadengineering driverbehavior measures council wanted politicians mandatory seatbelt usage drunkdriving laws form regulation required congress impose emvoters emrather detroit ribicoff wanted ideappquietly enforced reasonable regulatory measures going satisfy crusaders 1966 goals extending problem saving lives traffic wanted stop americans caring damned automobiles turn attention purposes hoped change minds far government intervene economy sought undermine veneration business leaders gigantic enterprises theyd built electoral prospects great society legislative record betterphrpwhat lessons tech 2021 noticed similarities rise automobile rise internet american lifeppthe automobile largely product american commercial genius wholeheartedly embraced american people tool advancement personal social economic welfare automobile culture quickly american culture remade nation involvement federal government cheerleading roadbuildingppthe automobilization america continued wonders driving grew familiar automakers huge powerful adverse consequences car culture larger commercial economy central apparent critics automobile grew number eventually focused criticisms driving public national government funded highways early history refused role regulator greedy corporate entities purportedly harming populace profitdriven projectppit echoes noppand fundamental elements remain unchanged 1966 plenty enterprising congressmen lawyers activists anxious bring big tech heel heaping blame ill associated internet facebooks mark zuckerberg demonstrated visits congress todays tech executives easily tripped grandstanding politicians autoexecutive forebears time fate enterprises follow downward arc ralph nader abraham ribicoff helped inflict detroitppppemthis essay adapted authors newly published book hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsackdetroitgeneralamericanenterprisedpb08m4c1xp2the sack detroit general motors end american enterpriseaempfigurea hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsackdetroitgeneralamericanenterprisedpb08m4c1xp2img srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202109unnamed1png altlessons big tech ralph naders sack detroit width400 height583afigure

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Maybe the last sentence here is wrong?

blockquotepbarbarism is perhaps best understood as a recurring syndrome among peripheral societies in response to the threats and opportunities presented by more developed neighbors this article develops a mathematical model of embarbarigenesisemthe formation of barbarian societies adjacent to more complex societiesand its consequences and applies the model to the case of europe in the first millennium ce a starting point is a game developed by hirshleifer in which two players allocate their resources either to producing wealth or to fighting over wealth the paradoxical result is that a richer and potentially more powerful player may lose out to a poorer player because the opportunity cost of fighting is greater for the former in a more elaborate spatial model with many players the outcome is a emwealthpower mismatchem central regions have comparatively more wealth than power peripheral regions have comparatively more power than wealth in a model of historical dynamics a wealthpower mismatch generates a longlasting decline in social complexity sweeping from more to less developed regions until wealth and power come to be more closely aligned this article reviews how well this model fits the historical record of late antiquity and the early middle ages in europe both quantitatively and qualitatively the article also considers some of the history left out of the model and why the model doesnt apply to the modern worldpblockquote pthat is a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0254240 target_blankby doug jonesa via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyrounduppayingforcrime target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109maybethelastsentencehereiswronghtmlmaybe the last sentence here is wronga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepbarbarism best understood recurring syndrome peripheral societies response threats opportunities presented developed neighbors article develops mathematical model ofembarbarigenesisemthe formation barbarian societies adjacent complex societiesand consequences applies model case europe millennium ce starting point game developed hirshleifer players allocate resources producing wealth fighting wealth paradoxical result richer potentially powerful player lose poorer player opportunity cost fighting greater elaborate spatial model players outcome aemwealthpower mismatchem central regions comparatively wealth power peripheral regions comparatively power wealth model historical dynamics wealthpower mismatch generates longlasting decline social complexity sweeping developed regions wealth power come closely aligned article reviews model fits historical record late antiquity early middle ages europe quantitatively qualitatively article considers history left model model doesnt apply modern worldpblockquote pthat relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0254240 target_blankby doug jonesa excellent relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyrounduppayingforcrime target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109maybethelastsentencehereiswronghtmlmaybe sentence wronga appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

614632f3454d5a5b9326447d

Ireland during World War II

pthe republic of ireland of course was neutral  i had not known these factsp p1 irish were allowed to emigrate to britain to work but with assurances they would not be conscriptedp p2 ireland engaged in heavy censorship during the war mostly to stop people from getting the impression that the war was a moral struggle between good and evil  the government wished to avoid pressure to enter the war fearing the initial strong support for neutrality might fade  this censorship even covered the telephone and telegraph or at least tried top p3 german broadcasts to ireland did get through and there was still a tendency in ireland at the end of the war to believe that irish suffering was more marked than that experienced anywhere else in europe a narrow mindset which government policies facilitatedp p4 erwin schrdinger spent much of the war in irelandp p5 the belfast blitz of 1941 made 100000 homeless and damaged 53 percent of the homes in belfastp p6 following the death of hitler irish prime minister amon de valera visited the german embassy in dublin to express his condolences an action that was much criticized at the timep pthat is all from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesdiarmaidferriterdp1861973071refsr_1_4__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdiarmaidferriterqid1631894370sr84 target_blankthe transformation of ireland 19002000a a quite good book by diarmaid ferriterp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109irelandduringworldwariihtmlireland during world war iia appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pthe republic ireland course neutral known factsp p1 irish allowed emigrate britain work assurances conscriptedp p2 ireland engaged heavy censorship war stop people getting impression war moral struggle good evil government wished avoid pressure enter war fearing initial strong support neutrality fade censorship covered telephone telegraph tried p3 german broadcasts ireland tendency ireland end war believe irish suffering marked experienced europe narrow mindset government policies facilitatedp p4 erwin schrdinger spent war irelandp p5 belfast blitz 1941 100000 homeless damaged 53 percent homes belfastp p6 following death hitler irish prime minister amon de valera visited german embassy dublin express condolences action criticized timep pthat relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesdiarmaidferriterdp1861973071refsr_1_4__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdiarmaidferriterqid1631894370sr84 target_blankthe transformation ireland 19002000a good book diarmaid ferriterp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109irelandduringworldwariihtmlireland world war iia appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

6146331e454d5a5b93264483

My podcast with Auren Hoffman

pa bit on time management a bit on talent a bit on organizational capital and indeed a bit on almost everythingp pauren is a very good interviewer here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsafegraphcompodcaststylercowenidentifyingtalentmeasuringorganizationalcapital target_blankthe linka 43 minutesp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109mypodcastwithaurenhoffmanhtmlmy podcast with auren hoffmana appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa bit time management bit talent bit organizational capital bit everythingp pauren good interviewer relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsafegraphcompodcaststylercowenidentifyingtalentmeasuringorganizationalcapital target_blankthe linka 43 minutesp pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109mypodcastwithaurenhoffmanhtmlmy podcast auren hoffmana appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Finally, A Randomized Trial of Mask Wearing

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinklerscaledjpg width600 altsurgical masks srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinklerscaledjpg 2560w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler300x200jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler500x333jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler768x512jpg 768w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler1536x1024jpg 1536w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler2048x1365jpg 2048w classwppostimage height400divpempaul shafer is an assistant professor of health law policy and management at the boston university school of public health he tweets a hrefhttpstwittercomshaferprshaferpra emp pa recent article i published in a hrefhttpstradeoffsorg20210910finallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingtradeoffsa looks at a recent a hrefhttpswwwpovertyactionorgstudyimpactmaskdistributionandpromotionmaskuptakeandcovid19bangladeshworking papera of a randomized intervention designed to increase mask wearing in rural bangladesh given that covid19 cases are back on the a hrefhttpscovidcdcgovcoviddatatrackertrends_dailycasesrisea and vaccination rates a hrefhttpscovidcdcgovcoviddatatrackervaccinationtrends_vacctrendsfullydailyremain lowa i also discuss what these findings might mean for the united statesp pin it i writep blockquotepthe study also weighed in on two other hotly debated questions about masks first the intervention increased physical distancing by 5 percentage points 241 versus 292 countering concerns that increased mask wearing may lead to more risky social behavior second the study provided suggestive evidence that surgical masks may be more effective in the real world at reducing covid19 spread than cloth masks building upon prior a hrefhttpswwwepagovsciencematterseparesearcherstesteffectivenessfacemasksdisinfectionmethodsagainstcovid19labbased studiesapblockquote pread the full piece at a hrefhttpstradeoffsorg20210910finallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingtradeoffsap pemresearch for this piece was supported by arnold venturesempthe post a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressfinallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingfinally a randomized trial of mask wearinga first appeared on a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinklerscaledjpg width600 altsurgical masks srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinklerscaledjpg 2560w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler300x200jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler500x333jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler768x512jpg 768w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler1536x1024jpg 1536w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads2021090921_scatteredmasks_mwinkler2048x1365jpg 2048w classwppostimage height400divpempaul shafer assistant professor health law policy management boston university school public health tweets hrefhttpstwittercomshaferprshaferpra emp pa recent article published hrefhttpstradeoffsorg20210910finallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingtradeoffsa looks recent hrefhttpswwwpovertyactionorgstudyimpactmaskdistributionandpromotionmaskuptakeandcovid19bangladeshworking papera randomized intervention designed increase mask wearing rural bangladesh given covid19 cases hrefhttpscovidcdcgovcoviddatatrackertrends_dailycasesrisea vaccination rates hrefhttpscovidcdcgovcoviddatatrackervaccinationtrends_vacctrendsfullydailyremain lowa discuss findings mean united statesp pin writep blockquotepthe study weighed hotly debated questions masks intervention increased physical distancing 5 percentage points 241 versus 292 countering concerns increased mask wearing lead risky social behavior second study provided suggestive evidence surgical masks effective real world reducing covid19 spread cloth masks building priora hrefhttpswwwepagovsciencematterseparesearcherstesteffectivenessfacemasksdisinfectionmethodsagainstcovid19labbased studiesapblockquote pread piece hrefhttpstradeoffsorg20210910finallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingtradeoffsap pemresearch piece supported arnold venturesempthe post hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressfinallyarandomizedtrialofmaskwearingfinally randomized trial mask wearinga appeared hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista

6146338a454d5a5b9326448a

Gödel Prize Winners Don’t Cosplay

pa hrefhttptimroughgardenorgtim roughgardena a topnotch computer scientist cowinner of a gdel prize is teaching a a hrefhttpstimroughgardengithubiofob21class on blockchainsa hes only just begun to put up material but i liked this bit of hype from lecture onep blockquotepspanits worth recognizing that were currently in a particular moment in time witnessing a new area of computer science blossom before our eyes in real time it draws on wellestablished parts of computer science eg cryptography and distributed systems and other fields eg game theory and finance but is developing into a fundamental and interdisciplinary area of science and engineering its own right future generations of computer scientists will be jealous of your opportunity to get in on the ground floor of this new areaanalogous to getting into the internet and the web in the early 1990s i cannot overstate the opportunities available to someone who masters the material covered in this coursecurrent demand is much much bigger than supplyspanp pspanand perhaps this course will also serve as a partial corrective to the misguided coverage and discussion of blockchains in a typical mainstream media article or water cooler conversation which seems bizarrely stuck in 2013 focused almost entirely on bitcoin its environmental impact the use case of payments silk road etc an enormous number of people including a majority of computer science researchers and academics have yet to grok the modern vision of blockchains a new computing paradigm that will enable the next incarnation of the internet and the web along with an entirely new generation of applicationsspanpblockquote pi share tims excitement at the possibilities indeed i had the pleasure of working with tim advising a blockchain project sadly killed by the sec by the way a hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikisilvio_micalisilvio micalia another winner of the godel prize is a prime mover behind the a hrefhttpswwwalgorandcomfuturefialgoranda blockchainp pstrongaddendumstrong heres a perfect example of a a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210914opinionbitcoinelsalvadorhtmlmainsteam media articlea stuck in 2013p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109roughgardenonblockchainshtmlgdel prize winners dont cosplaya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

pa hrefhttptimroughgardenorgtim roughgardena topnotch computer scientist cowinner gdel prize teaching hrefhttpstimroughgardengithubiofob21class blockchainsa hes begun material liked bit hype lecture onep blockquotepspanits worth recognizing currently particular moment time witnessing new area computer science blossom eyes real time draws wellestablished parts computer science eg cryptography distributed systems fields eg game theory finance developing fundamental interdisciplinary area science engineering right future generations computer scientists jealous opportunity ground floor new areaanalogous getting internet web early 1990s overstate opportunities available masters material covered coursecurrent demand bigger supplyspanp pspanand course serve partial corrective misguided coverage discussion blockchains typical mainstream media article water cooler conversation bizarrely stuck 2013 focused entirely bitcoin environmental impact use case payments silk road etc enormous number people including majority computer science researchers academics grok modern vision blockchains new computing paradigm enable incarnation internet web entirely new generation applicationsspanpblockquote pi share tims excitement possibilities pleasure working tim advising blockchain project sadly killed sec way hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikisilvio_micalisilvio micalia winner godel prize prime mover hrefhttpswwwalgorandcomfuturefialgoranda blockchainp pstrongaddendumstrong heres perfect example hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210914opinionbitcoinelsalvadorhtmlmainsteam media articlea stuck 2013p pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109roughgardenonblockchainshtmlgdel prize winners dont cosplaya appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

614633cc454d5a5b93264491

What I’ve been reading on Ireland

p1 susan mckay a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomessusanmckaydp1780732643refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391cridwm0n8jvo2zddchild1keywordssusanmckaynorthernprotestantsqid1631807869sprefixsusanmckayn2caps2c252sr81 target_blanknorthern protestants on shifting grounda and also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomessusanmckaydp1780732651refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391cridwm0n8jvo2zddchild1keywordssusanmckaynorthernprotestantsqid1631807901sprefixsusanmckayn2caps2c252sr82 target_blanknorthern protestants an unsettled peoplea  these two books straddle a journalistic and anthropological approach to what the titles indicate  as one protestant in the text remarked irish reunification would work just fine it is the ten years getting there that everyone is afraid of  it seems increasingly muddled what actually the northern irish unionist is supposed to stand for passionate attachment to union with an unwilling or indifferent partner namely englandp p2 david dickson a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesdaviddicksondp0300229461refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdaviddicksonfirstirishcitiesqid1631807837sr81 target_blankthe first irish cities an eighteenthcentury transformationa  one of the best books on cities in recent years and more general than the title might indicate  i had not known that waterford was once a rival for dublin or fully realized that ireland has no significant city which is not right next to the coast  readable throughout and gives you an excellent sense of how the irish pecking order for cities evolved  recommendedp p3 fintan otoole a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesfintanotooledp1908996927refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsfintano27toolemodernirelandqid1631864969sr81 target_blankmodern ireland in 100 artworksa  most educated outsiders approach ireland through the lens of its rather prominent literary history joyce yeats etc  thats fine but also somewhat misleading  this book gives you an alternate tour focused on modernism and the 20th century through the visual arts design television theatre and more  it should prove eyeopening to many people and is also a wonderful book for browsing or as a guide to further study  harry clarkes stained glass a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwriaieganode88858 target_blankeve of st agnesa work located in dublin and produced in the 1920s is much more central to the irish narrative than many people realizep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whativebeenreadingonirelandhtmlwhat ive been reading on irelanda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

p1 susan mckay relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomessusanmckaydp1780732643refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391cridwm0n8jvo2zddchild1keywordssusanmckaynorthernprotestantsqid1631807869sprefixsusanmckayn2caps2c252sr81 target_blanknorthern protestants shifting grounda relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomessusanmckaydp1780732651refsr_1_2__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391cridwm0n8jvo2zddchild1keywordssusanmckaynorthernprotestantsqid1631807901sprefixsusanmckayn2caps2c252sr82 target_blanknorthern protestants unsettled peoplea books straddle journalistic anthropological approach titles indicate protestant text remarked irish reunification work fine years getting afraid increasingly muddled actually northern irish unionist supposed stand passionate attachment union unwilling indifferent partner englandp p2 david dickson relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesdaviddicksondp0300229461refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsdaviddicksonfirstirishcitiesqid1631807837sr81 target_blankthe irish cities eighteenthcentury transformationa best books cities recent years general title indicate known waterford rival dublin fully realized ireland significant city right coast readable gives excellent sense irish pecking order cities evolved recommendedp p3 fintan otoole relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomesfintanotooledp1908996927refsr_1_1__mk_es_usc385mc385c5bdc395c391dchild1keywordsfintano27toolemodernirelandqid1631864969sr81 target_blankmodern ireland 100 artworksa educated outsiders approach ireland lens prominent literary history joyce yeats etc thats fine somewhat misleading book gives alternate tour focused modernism 20th century visual arts design television theatre prove eyeopening people wonderful book browsing guide study harry clarkes stained glass relnoopener hrefhttpswwwriaieganode88858 target_blankeve st agnesa work located dublin produced 1920s central irish narrative people realizep pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109whativebeenreadingonirelandhtmlwhat ive reading irelanda appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

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Our world will stay weird

blockquotepaurea smigrodzki was born in the usa last summer she is the latest baby at the forefront of science she is the first baby in history to be conceived with the help of polygenic testing the test is fully named preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disorders or pgtp for shortpblockquote phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwivfbabblecomonthe40thanniversaryofthefirstivfintheusathefirstbabyelizabethjordancarrlooksathowsciencetodayhasproducedanewworldfirstbabyaurea target_blankfurther informationa the piece being written by the first ivf baby which is now forty years agop pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109ourworldwillstayweirdhtmlour world will stay weirda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

blockquotepaurea smigrodzki born usa summer latest baby forefront science baby history conceived help polygenic testing test fully named preimplantation genetic testing polygenic disorders pgtp shortpblockquote phere relnoopener hrefhttpswwwivfbabblecomonthe40thanniversaryofthefirstivfintheusathefirstbabyelizabethjordancarrlooksathowsciencetodayhasproducedanewworldfirstbabyaurea target_blankfurther informationa piece written ivf baby years agop pthe post relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202109ourworldwillstayweirdhtmlour world stay weirda appeared relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap