Debiasing Covid-19 prevalence estimates Timely, accurate epidemic figures are necessary for informed policy. In the Covid-19 pandemic, mismeasurement can lead to tremendous waste, in health or economic output. "Random" testing is commonly used to estimate virus prevalence, reporting daily positivity rates. However, since testing is necessarily voluntary, all "random" tests done in the field suffer from selection bias. This bias, unlike standard polling biases, goes beyond demographical representativeness and cannot be corrected by oversampling (i.e. selecting people without symptoms to test). Using controlled, incentivized experiments on a sample of all ages, we show that people who feel symptoms are up to 33 times more likely to seek testing. The bias in testing propensities leads to sizable prevalence bias: test positivity is inflated by up to five times, even if testing is costless. This effect varies greatly across time and age groups, making comparisons over time and across countries misleading. We validate our results using the REACT study in the UK and find that positivity figures have indeed a very large and time varying bias. We present calculations to debias positivity rates, but importantly, suggest a parsimonious way to sample the population bypassing the bias altogether. Our estimation is both real-time and consistently close to true values. These results are relevant for all epidemics, besides covid-19, when carriers have informative beliefs about their own status.
Risk factors for early childhood growth faltering in rural Cambodia IntroductionInadequate nutrition in early life and exposure to sanitation-related enteric pathogens have been linked to poor growth outcomes in children. Despite rapid development in Cambodia, high prevalence of growth faltering and stunting continue to persist. This study aimed to assess nutrition and WASH variables and their association with nutritional status of children under 24 months in rural Cambodia.

MethodsWe conducted surveys in 491 villages across 55 rural communes in Cambodia in September 2016 to measure associations between child, household, and community-level risk factors for stunting and length-for-age z-score (LAZ). A primary survey measured child-level variables, including anthropometric measures and risk factors for growth faltering and stunting, for 4,036 children under 24 months of age from 3,877 households (approximately 8 households per village). For LAZ, we calculated bivariate and adjusted associations (as mean differences) with 95% confidence intervals using generalised estimating equations (GEEs) to fit linear regression models with robust standard errors. For stunting, we calculated unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) with 95% confidence intervals using GEEs to fit Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. For all models assessing effects of household-level variables, we used GEEs to account for clustering at the village level.

ResultsAfter adjustment for potential confounding, presence of water and soap at a households handwashing station was found to be significantly associated (p<0.05) with increased LAZ (adjusted mean difference in LAZ +0.10, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.16), and household use of an improved drinking water source was associated with less stunting in children compared to households that did not use an improved source of drinking water (aPR 0.81, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.98); breastfeeding was associated with a lower LAZ score (-0.16, 95% CI: -0.27, -0.05). No other feeding practices (i.e., dietary diversity, meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet) or sanitation variables (i.e., households safe disposal of child stools, household-level sanitation, community-level sanitation) were associated with LAZ scores or stunting in children under 24 months of age. In an age-stratified analysis, children under 12 months of age were longer (LAZ +0.12, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.21) if there was presence of water and soap at the household handwashing station; at the community level, higher prevalence of shared sanitation (percentage of households in a village who report to use shared sanitation facilities) was negatively associated with child length (LAZ - 0.36, 95% CI: -0.66, -0.07).
Three-dimensional cephalometric landmarking and Frankfort horizontal plane construction: reproducibility of conventional and novel landmarks ObjectivesTo assess manual landmarking repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) of a set of three-dimensional (3D) landmarks and to evaluate R&R of vertical cephalometric measurements using two Frankfort Horizontal (FH) planes as references for horizontal 3D imaging reorientation.

MethodsThirty-three landmarks, divided into "conventional", "foraminal" and "dental", were manually located twice by 3 experienced operators on 20 computed tomography (CT) scans of orthognathic surgery patients. R&R of the landmark localization were computed according to the ISO 5725 standard. These landmarks were then used to construct 2 FH planes: a conventional FH plane (orbitale left, porion right and left) and a newly proposed FH plane (midinternal acoustic foramen, orbitale right and left). R&R of vertical cephalometric measurements were computed using these 2 FH planes as horizontal references for CT reorientation.

ResultsLandmarks showing a 95% confidence interval (CI) of repeatability and/or reproducibility > 2mm were found exclusively in the "conventional" landmarks group. Vertical measurements showed excellent R&R (95% CI < 1mm) with either FH plane as horizontal reference. However, the 2 FH planes were not found to be parallel (absolute angular difference of 2.41{degrees}, SD 1.27{degrees}). The average time needed to landmark one CT scan was 14 {+/-} 3 minutes.

ConclusionsThe "dental" and "foraminal" landmarks tended to be more reliable than the "conventional" landmarks. Despite the poor overall reliability of the landmarks orbitale and porion, the construction of the conventional FH plane using 3 landmarks provided a reliable horizontal reference for 3D craniofacial CT scan reorientation. ENDORSE: a prognostic model for endocrine therapy response in advanced estrogen-receptor positive breast cancers Endocrine therapy remains the primary treatment for advanced and metastatic estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers. Patients who progress on endocrine therapy may benefit from add-on treatment targeting the PI3K/MTOR signaling pathways or by switching to chemotherapy. However, these options are only available after progression on first-line treatment with endocrine therapy. In the absence of reliable prognostic tests for advanced ER+ breast cancers, it is currently not possible to stratify patients into pertinent treatment arms at the baseline. To address this, we have developed a low-dimensional endocrine response signature (ENDORSE) model for advanced ER+ breast cancers. The ENDORSE model was developed using the baseline tumor transcriptomes and long-term survival outcomes of >800 invasive ER+ breast cancers and predicts the risk of death on endocrine therapy. ENDORSE was validated in multiple clinical trial datasets for endocrine therapy response in metastatic ER+ breast cancers and demonstrated superior predictive performance over clinical factors and published gene signatures. Our results show that ENDORSE is a reproducible and accurate prognostic model for endocrine therapy response in advanced and metastatic ER+ breast cancers. Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and Monoclonal Antibodies Due to numerous mutations in the spike protein, the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron (B.1.1.529) raises serious concerns since it may significantly limit the antibody-mediated neutralization and increase the risk of reinfections. While a rapid increase in the number of cases is being reported worldwide, until now there has been uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccinations and monoclonal antibodies. Our in vitro findings using authentic SARS-CoV-2 variants indicate that in contrast to the currently circulating Delta variant, the neutralization efficacy of vaccine-elicited sera against Omicron was severely reduced highlighting T-cell mediated immunity as essential barrier to prevent severe COVID-19. Since SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was resistant to casirivimab and imdevimab, genotyping of SARS-CoV-2 may be needed before initiating mAb treatment. Variant-specific vaccines and mAb agents may be required to treat COVID-19 due to Omicron and other emerging variants of concern. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ADVERSE EVENTS PREVALENCE, PATIENT SAFETY CULTURE AND PATIENT SAFETY PERCEPTION IN A SINGLE SAMPLE OF PATIENTS: A CROSS-SECTIONAL AND CORRELATIONAL STUDY ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between Adverse Events Prevalence, Patient Safety Culture and Patient Safety Perception.

DesignCross-sectional, ex post facto comparative study on a single sample of patients.

SettingFour medium-high-level hospitals were included in the study -- two public and two private from Zulia State in Venezuela.

Participants556 medical records and patients were studied for the prevalence and patient safety perception study, and 397 of the healthcare providers involved in the care of these patients were surveyed for the patient safety culture study, at two public and two private hospitals.

Outcome measurementThe primary outcome of this study was the Association between Adverse Events Prevalence, Patient Safety Culture and Patient Safety Perception, and according to hospital funding type, private and public.

ResultsAn inverse association was observed between Adverse Events Prevalence and its severity and Patient Safety Culture Index (PSCI: rho=-0.8 p=0.5) (95% CI=0.26-0.10) and Patient Safety Perception Index (PSPI: rho=-0.6 p=0.18) (95% CI=0.10-0.28), which were protective factors for patient safety. No association was identified between Patient Safety Culture and Patient Safety Perception (rho=0.0001). No statistical differences were identified by hospital type (p=0.93) (95% CI=0.70-1.2).

ConclusionsThe analysis of the variable correlations studied (AEP, PSC and PSP) within the same sample offers an interesting and useful perspective. In this sample, although no correlation was observed between the three variables as an interacting set, some correlation patterns were observed between pairs of variables that could guide further studies.

Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThe association analysis of the three main variables (adverse events prevalence, patient safety culture and patient safety perception) in the same sample of patients and health professionals and over the same time period during which the care process and, consequently, the adverse events took place is an unprecedented and innovative approach, which contributes to the body of knowledge on this field of study.
C_LIO_LIThe relational theoretical framework produced provides a "map" that can facilitate decision-taking and which establishes the variables that should be considered a priority. As a result, it is highly likely to have an impact on the clinical efficiency and safety of healthcare institutions and services.
C_LIO_LIThe study was carried out at both private and public hospitals, enabling the behaviour of the aforementioned variables to be compared and analysed at each type of institution. The literature to date on this approach is scarce and offers little information.
C_LIO_LIAlthough the sample of hospitals selected is not representative of Venezuela, it is representative of the hospitals of one of the most productive and populated states in the country.
C_LIO_LIDuring stages 1 and 2, some resistance to collaborating with and completing the evaluation instruments was identified among the health professionals.
C_LI A protocol for a multicentre observational study across an integrated care system to understand the effect of living with frailty on access to video consultations Risks for digital exclusion include older age, disability, and deprivation. No literature exists examining frailty as an additional possible risk factor. Many studies have shown frailty to be a more accurate predictor of adverse outcome in healthcare than age alone. Understanding risk factors for digital exclusion may help healthcare services appropriately tailor interventions. The Healthier Together integrated care system (HTICS) in Bristol is developing video consultations for clinics. The aim of this prospective observational cross-sectional study is to identify whether living with frailty is a risk factor of digital exclusion from video consultation. Data will be collected using a structured survey including patients from three sites across the Heal secondary care services at North Bristol Trust, and then two subsequent sites will be included across HTICS. Data will be collected on known risk factors for digital exclusion, frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale, and will cover four domains for digital exclusion as defined by NHS Digital: access, skill, motivation, and confidence. Data will be presented with descriptive statistics. The association between frailty and outcomes will be analysed with a multivariable logistic regression.

Key Study Contacts

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@134f5d7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f8149forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11dbf0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7e854borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@61272f_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Study Summary

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@53a9f0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b9e76dorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@108bd12org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b500ddorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14be1d8_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Funding and Support in Kind

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d86811org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1985973org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@118ca5corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8d7839org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1cff6e1_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Role of Study Sponsor and FunderThe pilot at North Bristol Trust (NBT) is overseen by Neuromusculoskeletal (NMSK) Division governance. NBT NMSK Division takes responsibility for ensuring that the design of the study meets appropriate standards and that arrangements are in place to ensure appropriate conduct and reporting. Governance oversight for Hospital at Home was registered with NBT NMSK, and for primary care with Horfield Health Centre.

Roles and Responsibilities

Study Flow Chart

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@594232org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@904b3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@138af7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10898a3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15d2719_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Impact of COVID 19 on the quality of life (QoL) of patients living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos Nigeria The study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Quality of Life (QoL) in persons living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos, Nigeria and to determine how they coped during the pandemic, particularly during the period of total lockdown with the additional "SHIELDING" measures to which they had to adhere. Data was collected using a standardized protocol PedsQL, Sickle Cell Disease Module version.3.0 designed for youth within the ages of (13-18) years, (19-35) years and their parents/Guardian if underage. The survey captured data on patients pain impact, hurts, management, treatments, communication with their caregivers and their Guardians perception. The survey was performed online, or Face-to-Face/telephone interview if online was not possible. Contacts of patients and parents were obtained from the database of Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria. A total of 105 (80 patients and 25 parents) participants responded to the survey. The age distribution of respondents was highest at 56 % in the age bracket of 13 - 18 years old. Pain crisis were very common amongst patients. The survey revealed that the type of treatment or care received at these times determined whether or not the patients visited the hospital when they had pain crises. In addition, as patients reports an increase in ill-treatment they experienced in the hands of health care givers, so did the fear of accessing treatment during the COVID pandemic. It was observed that the frequency of pain crises experienced by SCD patients was proportional to the patients quality of life (the higher the frequency of pains, the worse the QoL). As a follow-up, a more detailed study would be required, as this study was limited in the capturing of the demographics, sex and number of participants; Considering the number of persons living with SCD that visit the Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria, (about 3,000 patients), the number of responses in this study was low (105). It is believed that a higher number of responses would have given more information about the Sickle Cell burden and the QoL of persons living with SCD in Lagos during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lagos was the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Short Practical Regimen of Acupuncture for Melasma: A Prospective Cohort Study in a Tertiary Hospital in Thailand BackgroundMelasma is a common skin pigmentation disorder. Acupuncture shows benefits for patients with melasma, although no standardized method or optimal number of sessions have been determined.

ObjectiveTo comparatively assess clinical outcomes of melasma between five vs ten standard acupuncture sessions.

MethodsWe performed a prospective observational cohort study in all melasma patients at the Acupuncture Clinic, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. All patients were treated with standard acupuncture procedure twice a week and were evaluated after the fifth and the tenth sessions of acupuncture, with a follow-up one week after the last session. Participants were divided into two treatment groups: Groups A and B received five and ten acupuncture sessions respectively. Melasma outcomes were assessed by using the Melanin Index (MI), Melasma Area and Severity Index (MASI), patient-reported improvement scores and acupuncture-related adverse events.

ResultsOf 113 participants, 67 received five sessions of acupuncture treatment while 39 received ten sessions. 7 participants did not finish treatment. After five sessions of acupuncture in Group A, the mean MI decreased by 28.7 (95%CI -38.5 to -18.8), whereas the median MASI decreased by 3.4 (-6.9, -1.2) points. After ten sessions of acupuncture in Group B, the mean MI decreased by 31.3 (95%CI -45.0 to -17.6), whereas the median MASI decreased by 5.4 (-9.9, - 3.0) points. The first five sessions of acupuncture had a higher effect on the change in magnitude than the last five sessions, although there was no statistically significant difference. However, ten-session of acupuncture, had not reached the peak benefit on melasma yet. Further studies should be done with a higher number of sessions to determine the optimal rounds of treatment. Twenty-nine participants reported minor side effects, mostly consisting of persistent pain and small hematoma. Group B had RR of having adverse events 1.8 times (95% CI 1.0-3.4) compared to group A.

ConclusionAcupuncture has a potential dose-response effect on clinical and patient-reported melasma outcomes with minor side effects. Quantifying phenotype and genotype distributions in single muscle fibres from patients carrying the pathogenic mtDNA variant m.3243A>G Cells are thought to tolerate the presence of heteroplasmic pathogenic mitochondrial (mt)DNA variants, up to a threshold proportion with little or no functional consequence, only developing a detectable oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) defect once this threshold is exceeded. We hypothesised that, given the highly variable phenotypic presentation and severity of disease caused by the most common heteroplasmic pathogenic mtDNA variant m.3243A>G, this threshold may vary between patients. To estimate this threshold we examined the relationship between m.3243A>G level and deficiency of respiratory complexes I and IV in hundreds of single skeletal muscle fibres captured by laser microdissection from 17 patients carrying the m.3243A>G variant. We confirmed that tissue homogenate m.3243A>G level is a poor surrogate for the broad and complex distributions of m.3243A>G level in single cells from individual patients. We used unsupervised machine learning to characterise the biochemical status of muscle fibres, based on immunocytochemical measurements and estimate that the m.3243A>G threshold proportion above which myofibres develop a respiratory complex defect is 82.8% (IQR:2.7%). We do not find any significant difference in threshold between individuals, however we demonstrate that the pattern of respiratory complex defect and the distribution of m.3243A>G varies considerably between patients. This observation suggests that the pathogenesis of m.3243A>G is more diverse than previously thought. Deceased donor kidney degradomics indicates cytoskeletal proteolytic alterations impacting post-transplant function. BackgroundIn brain death, cerebral injury contributes to systemic biological dysregulation, causing significant cellular stress in donor kidneys that adversely impacts the quality of grafts. Here, we hypothesized that DBD kidneys may undergo proteolytic processes that renders grafts susceptible to post-transplant dysfunction.

Material & MethodsUsing mass spectrometry and immunoblotting analyses, we profiled degradation patterns of cytoskeletal proteins in deceased (n=55) and living (n=10) donor kidneys.

ResultsWe found that in DBD kidneys, key podocyte cytoskeletal proteins had been proteolytically cleaved. Generated degradation profiles were not associated to donor related demographic and clinical factors but were associated to suboptimal post-transplant function. Strikingly, -actinin -4 and Talin-1 degradation profiles were not observed in circulatory-death or living-donor kidneys. As Talin-1 is a specific proteolytic target of Calpain-1, we investigated a potential trigger of Calpain activation and Talin-1 degradation using ex-vivo precision-cut human kidney slices and in-vitro immortalised human podocytes. Notably, we found that Transforming-Growth Factor-{beta} (TGF-{beta}) activated Calpain-1 and proteolytically cleaved Talin-1 to generate distinct peptide fragments. These peptide fragments were of similar size and matched the degradation patterns observed in DBD kidneys. Talin-1 degradation was prevented in vitro by Calpain-1 inhibition.

ConclusionsHere, we provide initial evidence that DBD kidneys are susceptible to cytoskeletal protein degradation that impacts posttransplant kidney function. Subsequent studies should aim to further investigate the link between brain death and activation of proteolytic pathways exploring new therapeutic opportunities. Hepatitis B infection is causally associated with extrahepatic cancers: a Mendelian randomization study Overwhelming evidence suggests that chronic hepatitis infection is associated with extrahepatic cancers. However, uncertainties exist about this association as much of the current evidence evolve from observational studies which are susceptible to confounding. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to explore the causal associations between chronic hepatitis infection and extrahepatic cancers. Genetic variants associated with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were identified from a large genome-wide association study. Summary level data for cancer of the biliary tract, cervix, colorectum, endometrium, esophagus, gastric, liver, lung, ovary and pancreas were obtained from the Biobank Japan. Using the inverse variance weighted method, we found chronic HBV infection to be causally associated with gastric cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19 and 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.25, P-value = 0.001) and lung cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28, P-value = 0.001). Moreover, chronic HBV infection (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.17-1.53, P-value = 0.007) and chronic HCV infection (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 2.21-3.42, P-value = 0.0008) were all causally associated with liver cancer, supporting a well-established association between chronic hepatitis infection and liver cancer. In conclusions, our MR findings revealed that chronic HBV infection is causally associated with extrahepatic cancers including gastric and lung cancers. Macronutrient mass intake explains deferential weight and fat loss in isocaloric diets Differential weight and fat losses under isocaloric diets of distinct macronutrient composition are well-documented findings in obesity research.1-6 Such data are considered a result of inadequate methodology as it disagree with the energy balance theory.7 A recent mathematical analysis of this paradigm has found, however, serious analytical contradictions in its foundations.8 As an alternative, a mass balance model was proposed to explain the aforesaid body composition alterations. Here, we expand on this observation by contrasting both models. We show that mass balance explains a wide range of fending experiments including those concurring with the energy balance principle. The latter, however, is less flexible and results in poor forecasts in settings consistent with mass balance. The energy balance theory is thus an unsatisfactory model of body composition changes. Consequently, by shifting to a mass balance paradigm of obesity a much deeper understanding of this disease may follow in the near future. App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions: The COVID Symptom Study Sweden The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants ([&ge;]18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests were used to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities were used to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which were in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We found that this hospital prediction model demonstrated a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates were similar. When applying the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observed MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0%, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model. SEPRES: Sepsis prediction via a clinical data integration system and real-world studies in the intensive care unit BackgroundSepsis is vital in critical care medicine, and early detection and intervention are key to survival. We aimed to establish an early warning system for sepsis based on a data integration system that can be implemented in the intensive care unit (ICU).

MethodsWe trained the LightGBM and multilayer perceptron on the open-source database Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care for sepsis prediction. An ensemble sepsis prediction model was established based on the transfer learning and ensemble learning technique on the private dataset of Ruijin Hospital. The Shapley Additive Explanations analysis was applied to present feature importance on the prediction inference. With the development of data-integrating hub to collect and transmit data from different brands of ICU medical devices, the data integration system was established to receive, integrate, standardize, and store the real-time clinical data. In this way, the sepsis prediction model developed in the ICU of the Ruijin Hospital for the real-world study of sepsis early warning on ICU management. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05088850).

FindingsOur best early warning model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0{middle dot}9833 in the task of detecting sepsis in 4-h preceding on the open-source database, while our ensemble model achieved an AUC of 0{middle dot}9065-0{middle dot}9436 in the retrospective research from 1-5-h preceding on the private database, and 0{middle dot}8636-0{middle dot}8992 in real-time real-world studies using the data integration system in the ICU of the Ruijin Hospital. In the continuous early warning process of patients admitted to the ICU, 22 patients who met the diagnostic criteria for sepsis during hospitalization were predicted as positive cases; 29 patients without sepsis were predicted as negative cases. Additionally, 17 patients were predicted as false-positive cases; in six patients with sepsis during ICU stay, the predicted probabilities at different time nodes were all less than the warning threshold 0{middle dot}7 and predicted as false-negative cases.

InterpretationMachine learning models could allow accurate and real-time inference to detect sepsis onset within 5-h preceding at most with the help of the data integration system. We identified the features such as age, antibiotics, ventilation, and net balance to be important for the sepsis prediction inference. We argue that this system has promising potential to improve ICU management by helping medical practitioners identify at-sepsis-risk patients and prepare for timely diagnosis and intervention.

FundingShanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project, the ZHANGJIANG LAB, and the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality. Relationship Between Patient Sex and Serum Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonist Drug and Anti-Drug Antibody Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease; A Nationwide Cohort Study BackgroundAnti-drug antibodies to infliximab (ATI) and adalimumab (ATA) are associated with loss of response to tumor necrosis factor antagonist (anti-TNF) therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the relationship between patient sex and serum TNF antagonist drug and antibody concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease

MethodsA nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted by evaluating patients charts from July 2018 until September 2021. The effect of patient sex on anti-drug antibodies and serum drug concentration in patients with IBD across 7 hospitals was investigated. A subgroup analysis also investigated the effect of anti-TNF combination therapy. Geometric means were calculated, and multiple linear regression was used to estimate the adjusted ratio of geometric means (RoGM) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

ResultsIn the total study sample (n = 1093), males receiving infliximab had higher anti-drug antibody concentrations (38.3 vs. 22.3 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30-2.27, p-value <0.001) compared to females. Additionally, infliximab serum drug concentrations among males were lower compared to females (2.6 vs. 4.1 ug/ml; aRoGM = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44-0.88, p-value = 0.007). In the subgroup analysis (n = 359), male compared to female patients on combination therapy with infliximab and immunomodulators had similar anti-drug antibody concentrations (30.2 vs. 21.9 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.79-2.40, p-value = 0.254). There was no difference in the anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab.

ConclusionIn patients receiving infliximab, anti-drug antibodies were higher in males than females. Consistent with this, serum drug concentrations were lower in males than females on infliximab. There was no difference in anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab. In addition, no difference in anti-drug antibodies between males and females receiving anti-TNF combination therapy was observed. DeepFake electrocardiograms: the key for open science for artificial intelligence in medicine Recent global developments underscore the prominent role big data have in modern medical science. Privacy issues are a prevalent problem for collecting and sharing data between researchers. Synthetic data generated to represent real data carrying similar information and distribution may alleviate the privacy issue.

In this study, we present generative adversarial networks (GANs) capable of generating realistic synthetic DeepFake 12-lead 10-sec electrocardiograms (ECGs). We have developed and compare two methods, WaveGAN* and Pulse2Pulse GAN. We trained the GANs with 7,233 real normal ECG to produce 121,977 DeepFake normal ECGs. By verifying the ECGs using a commercial ECG interpretation program (MUSE 12SL, GE Healthcare), we demonstrate that the Pulse2Pulse GAN was superior to the WaveGAN to produce realistic ECGs. ECG intervals and amplitudes were similar between the DeepFake and real ECGs. These synthetic ECGs are fully anonymous and cannot be referred to any individual, hence they may be used freely. The synthetic dataset will be available as open access for researchers at OSF.io and the DeepFake generator available at the Python Package Index (PyPI) for generating synthetic ECGs.

In conclusion, we were able to generate realistic synthetic ECGs using adversarial neural networks on normal ECGs from two population studies, i.e., there by addressing the relevant privacy issues in medical datasets. Development of machine learning models for the prediction of complications after colonic, colorectal and small intestine anastomosis in psychiatric and non-psychiatric patient collectives (PSTUDY) Psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases are an increasingly cumbersome burden for the medical system. Indeed, hospital costs associated with mental health conditions have been constantly on the rise in recent years. Moreover, psychiatric conditions are likely to have a negative effect on the treatment of other medical conditions and surgical outcomes, in addition to their direct effects on the overall quality of life. Our study aims to investigate the impact of preoperative Risk factor, psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases on the outcomes of colorectal surgery and length of hospital stay via predictive modeling techniques.

MethodPatient data will be collected from several participating national and international surgical centers The machine learning models will be calculated and coded, but also published according to the TRIPOD guidelines (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis).

ResultIt is conceivable to arrive at generalizable models predicting the abovementioned endpoints through large amounts of data from several centers. The models will be subsequently deployed as a free-to-use web-based prediction tool using the Shiny environment [47]. The cost for the hosting server and digital infrastructure will be covered by Dr. Anas Taha. The sponsor will store the data for ten years. S-ketamine in patient-controlled analgesia reduces opioid consumption in a dose-dependent manner after major lumbar fusion surgery: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial BACKGROUNDSpinal fusion surgery causes severe pain. Strong opioids, commonly used as postoperative analgesics, may have unwanted side effects. S-ketamine may be an effective analgesic adjuvant in opioid patient-controlled analgesia (PCA). However, the optimal adjunct S-ketamine dose to reduce postoperative opioid consumption is still unknown.

METHODSWe randomized 107 patients at two tertiary hospitals in a double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial of adults undergoing major lumbar spinal fusion surgery. Patients were randomly allocated to four groups in order to compare the effects of three different doses of adjunct S-ketamine (0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 mg ml-1) or placebo on postoperative analgesia in oxycodone PCA. Study drugs were administered for 24 hours postoperative after which oxycodone-PCA was continued for further 48 hours. Our primary outcome was cumulative oxycodone consumption at 24 hours after surgery.

RESULTSOf the 100 patients analyzed, patients receiving 0.75 mg ml-1 S-ketamine in oxycodone PCA needed 25% less oxycodone at 24 h postoperatively (61.2 mg) compared with patients receiving 0.5 mg ml-1 (74.7 mg) or 0.25 mg ml-1 (74.1 mg) S-ketamine in oxycodone or oxycodone alone (81.9 mg) (mean difference: -20.6 mg; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -41 to -0.20; P = 0.048). A beneficial effect in mean change of pain intensity at rest was seen in the group receiving 0.75 mg ml-1 S-ketamine in oxycodone PCA compared with patients receiving lower ketamine doses or oxycodone alone (standardized effect size: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.013-0.32, P = 0.033). The occurrence of adverse events was similar among the groups.

CONCLUSIONSOxycodone PCA containing S-ketamine as an adjunct at a ratio of 1: 0.75 decreased cumulative oxycodone consumption at 24 h after major lumbar spinal fusion surgery without additional adverse effects. Effectiveness of a short term induction regimen of a biosimilar Adalimumab in the long term management of symptomatic Ankylosing Spondylitis Symptomatic Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Community Based Proof of Concept Observational Study IntroductionCost and drug toxicity often deter prolonged therapeutic use of anti-TNF agents in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). A planned study was completed to endorse our clinic based observation of long term relief following short-term administration of anti-TNF agent.

Methods50 consenting patients with symptomatic active chronic AS under rheumatology care in a community clinic were enrolled. They had no past history of anti-TNF use. 40 mg standard biosimilar adalimumab (BS-ADA, Exemptia trade name)was injected subcutaneously every fortnight for six injections (10 weeks). Patients were monitored at several time points. Improvement was assessed at regular interval as per protocol which included standard indices (Bath and Assessment Spondyloarthritis International Society /ASAS). An intention to treat analysis with significant p<0.05 was carried out.

ResultsPatients showed early and substantial significant improvement in pain, NSAID requirement, function and in several indices (ASAS 20 & 40, ASAS partial remission, BASDAI, BASFI, ASDAS) which persisted after stopping injections. 84% and 52 % of patients respectively showed ASAS 20 improvement at week 12 and 48: corresponding ASAS partial remission 34% and 24%. Over 50% patients maintained prolonged improvement and provided proof of concept (defined a-priori). Serum Interleukin-6 assay showed a sharp reduction at 24 weeks. None developed TB or serious drug toxicity. 11 patients withdrew (mostly inadequate response). Absence of control was a limitation.

ConclusionA ten-week administration of biosimilar adalimumab in difficult to treat AS showed early substantial improvement which often persisted for 24 weeks. This unconventional strategy was socioeconomically appealing. It merits further validation and acceptance especially in resource strained settings. Complementary frailty and mortality prediction models on older patients as a tool for assessing palliative care needs BackgroundPalliative care (PC) has demonstrated benefits for life-limiting illnesses. Cancer patients have mainly accessed these services, but there is growing consensus about the importance of promoting access for patients with non-malignant disease. Bad survival prognosis and patients frailty are usual dimensions to decide PC inclusion.

ObjectivesThe main aim of this work is to design and evaluate three quantitative models based on machine learning approaches to predict frailty and mortality on older patients in the context of supporting PC decision making: one-year mortality, survival regression and one-year frailty classification.

MethodsThe dataset used in this study is composed of 39,310 hospital admissions for 19,753 older patients (age >= 65) from January 1st, 2011 to December 30th, 2018. All prediction models were based on Gradient Boosting Machines. From the initial pool of variables at hospital admission, 20 were selected by a recursive feature elimination algorithm based on the random forests GINI importance criterion. Besides, we run an independent grid search to find the best hyperparameters in each model. The evaluation was performed by 10-fold cross-validation and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and mean absolute error were reported. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to compare our proposed approach with classical survival methods.

ResultsThe one-year mortality model achieved an AUC ROC of 0.87 {+/-} 0.01; the mortality regression model achieved an MAE of 329.97 {+/-} 5.24 days. The one-year frailty classification reported an AUC ROC of 0.9 {+/-} 0.01. The Spearmans correlation between the admission frailty index and the survival time was -0.1, while the point-biserial correlation between one-year frailty index and survival time was -0.16.

ConclusionsOne-year mortality model performance is at a state-of-the-art level. Frailty Index used in this study behaves coherently with other works in the literature. One-year frailty classifier demonstrated that frailty status within the year could be predicted accurately. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting one-year frailty status based on a frailty index. We found mortality and frailty as two weakly correlated and complementary PC needs assessment criteria. Predictive models are available online at http://demoiapc.upv.es. Frequencies of TP53 Germline Variations and Identification of Two Novel 3'UTR Variants in a Series of Head and Neck Cancer Cases TP53 is a tumour suppressor gene. Its inactivation plays a significant role in the molecular pathology of cancers. TP53 germline mutations increase the risk of developing multiple primary cancers. However, the role of alterations in TP53 germline DNA in head and neck cancers (HNCs) is not well-established. HNCs comprise one of the most frequent cancers in South Asia. The present discovery study reports the investigation of germline variations in the TP53 gene in a cohort of 30 HNC patients from Karachi, Pakistan. Blood samples were collected and genomic DNA was extracted from white blood cells. TP53 has 11 exons, where exon 1 is not transcribed. After quality control of DNA, amplification of seven selected exons along with their splice sites, two intronic regions (introns 2-3 and 3-4), and 3UTR were carried out. Sanger sequencing was carried out in order to identify germline variations. Comparison with wild type sequence revealed rs1642785 G>C (intron 2-3) variation in 63.2%, PIN3 duplication (rs17878362) in intron 3-4 in 94.7%, and rs1042522 G>C in exon 4 (p.R72P) in 66.6% of the cases. In 3UTR, 13.4% of the analyzed cases carried either one of two variants, i.e., 17:7669567_8delCA or 17:7669560C>G. The latter variations are reported for the first time in literature. In conclusion, we report three highly frequent germline variations and two newly discovered variations in 3UTR of TP53 germline DNA in HNC patients from Pakistan. These results shall contribute to delineating the genetic component of HNCs with potential translational implications. Substance Use Onset in High-Risk 9-13 Year-Olds in the ABCD Study AimA key aim of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study is to document substance use onset, patterns, and sequelae across adolescent development. However, substance use misreporting obscures accurate drug use characterization. Hair toxicology tests provide objective historical substance use data, but are rarely investigated in youth. Here, we compare objective hair toxicology results with self-reported substance use in youth.

MethodsA literature-based substance use risk algorithm identified 696 ABCD Study(R) participants for hair sample collections between baseline and 2-year follow-up (spanning ages 9-13) for laboratory analysis. Chi-square and t-tests assessed differences between participants demographics, positive and negative hair tests, risk algorithm scores, and self-reported substance use.

ResultsHair testing confirmed that 17% of at-risk 9-13 year-olds had evidence of past 3-month use of one (n=99), two (n=17), three (n=3), or four (n=2) drug classes. After considering prescribed medication use, 11% had a positive test incongruent with self- or parent-report. No participant with a positive result self-reported substance use consistent with their toxicology results. Participants with positive tests under-reported use (p<.001), reported less sipping of alcohol (p<.001), and scored higher on the risk algorithm (p<.001) than those with negative hair toxicology.

ConclusionsAn alarming 11% of tested samples in at-risk 9-13 year-olds were positive for at least one unreported substance, suggesting underreporting in this population when participating in a national healthy development study. The degree of underreporting cannot yet be calculated, as at-risk samples were prioritized for assays. Expanded toxicology testing is key to characterize substance use in youth. Airway management, procedural data, and mortality records of patients undergoing surgery for mucormycosis associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) In India, the second wave of coronavirus disease (COVID -19) was associated with a distinct surge in cases of invasive fungal infection with mucormycosis. This disease was seen typically in the sinonasal form in COVID-19 patients. Uncontrolled diabetes, steroid use in COVID-19 treatment, etc. were some of the postulated risk factors for the association of COVID 19 and Mucormycosis. The management plan of these cases included surgical debridement, systemic antifungal therapy, sugar control, and management of antifungal related systemic adverse effects. In this retrospective case record review, we aimed to evaluate the airway management plan, demographics, and overall outcomes in patients undergoing surgical resection for COVID-19 associated mucormycosis. Forty-one (71.9 %) patients had a diagnosis of sino-nasal mucormycosis, fourteen (24.6%) had a diagnosis of rhino-orbital mucormycosis, and 2 patients (3.5%) were diagnosed with palatal mucormycosis. Total 44 (77.19 %) patients had co-morbidities. The most common co-morbidity was Diabetes Mellitus 42 (73.6%), followed by hypertension 21 (36.84%) and Acute kidney injury 14 (28.07%). We used the intubation difficulty scale score to assess intubating conditions. Intubation was easy to slightly difficult in 53 out of 57 patients. In our study, mortality occurred in 7 (12.28 %) patients. The median mortality time was 60 (range, 27-74) days. The median time to hospital discharge was 53.5 (range,10-85) days. Managing COVID-19 on its own is challenging and additional mucormycosis can lead to increased morbidity and mortality. Despite challenges and risks, timely and meticulous interventions can reduce complications.