One Year of Evidence on Mental Health Disorders in China during the COVID-19 Crisis - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis This paper provides a systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence rate of mental health issues of general population, general and frontline healthcare workers (HCWs) in China over one year of the COVID-19 crisis. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Medrxiv at November 16th, 2020, pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the prevalence rates, and ran meta-regression to tease out the heterogeneity. The meta-regression results uncovered several predictors of the prevalence rates, including severity, type of mental issues, population, sampling location, and study quality. Pooled prevalence rates are significantly different from, yet largely between, the findings of previous meta-analyses, suggesting the results of our larger study are consistent with yet more accurate than the findings of the smaller, previous meta-analyses. The prevalence rates of distress and insomnia and those of frontline HCWs are higher suggest future research and interventions should pay more attention to those mental outcomes and populations. Our findings suggest a need to examine the prevalence rates at varying levels of severity. The one-year cumulative evidence on sampling locations (Wuhan vs. non-Wuhan) corroborates the typhoon eye effect theory.

Trial registrationCRD4202022059
Heart Rate fractality disruption as a footprint of subthreshold depressive symptoms IntroductionPsychopathology, and in particular depression, is a cardiovascular risk factor independent from co-occurring pathology. This link is traced back to the mind-heart-body connection, whose underlying mechanisms are, to date, not completely known. To study psychopathology in relation to the heart, it is necessary to observe the autonomic nervous system, which mediates among the parts of that connection. Its gold standard of evaluation is the study of heart rate variability (HRV).

ObjectiveTo assess whether any association exists between the HRV parameters and sub-threshold depressive symptoms in a sample of healthy subjects

MethodsTwo short-term HRV recordings (5 min - supine and sitting) were analysed in 77 healthy subjects. Here we adopted a three-fold approach to evaluate HRV: a set of scores belonging to the time domain (SDNN, pNN50, RMSSD); to the frequency domain (high, low, and very low frequencies) and a set of  nonlinear parameters. The PHQ-9 scale was used to detect depressive symptoms.

ResultsDepressive symptoms were associated only with a parameter from the non-linear approach and specifically the long-term fluctuations of fractal dimensions (DFA-2). This association remained significant even after controlling for age, gender, BMI, arterial hypertension, anti-hypertensive drugs, dyslipidaemia, and smoking habit. Moreover, the DFA-2 was not affected by the baroreflex (postural change), unlike other autonomic markers.

ConclusionIn conclusion, fractal analysis of HRV (DFA-2) allows to predict depressive symptoms below diagnostic threshold in healthy subjects regardless of their health status. DFA-2 may be then considered as an imprint of subclinical depression on the heart rhythm.
Melodic Intonation Therapy for aphasia: A multi-level meta-analysis of randomised-controlled-trial and individual-participant data AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWMelodic Intonation Therapy (MIT) is a prominent rehabilitation programme for individuals with post-stroke aphasia. The present meta-analysis investigated the efficacy of MIT while considering outcome measure quality, experimental design, influence of spontaneous recovery, MIT protocol, and level of generalisation.

An extensive literature search identified 606 studies in major databases and trials registers; of those, 22 studies, overall 129 participants, met all eligibility criteria. Multi-level mixed- and random-effects models served to separately meta-analyse RCT and non-RCT data.

RCT evidence on validated measures revealed a small-to-moderate standardised effect in non-communicative language expression for MIT, with substantial uncertainty. Unvalidated measures attenuated MITs effect size compared to validated tests. MITs effect size was 5.7 times larger for non-RCT data compared to RCT data. Effect size in non-RCT data decreased with number of months post-stroke, suggesting confound through spontaneous recovery. Variation from the original MIT protocol did not systematically alter benefit from treatment. Progress on validated tests arose mainly from gains in repetition tasks rather than other domains of verbal expression such as everyday communication ability.

The current results confirm the promising role of MIT in improving trained/untrained performance with unvalidated measures, alongside validated repetition tasks; whilst highlighting possible limitations in promoting everyday communication ability. Serum Vitamin D levels are associated with increased COVID-19 severity and mortality independent of whole-body and visceral adiposity INTRODUCTIONCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with susceptibility to infectious disease. In this study, the association between COVID-19 outcomes and vitamin D levels in patients attending a COVID-19 reference center in Mexico City are examined.

METHODSConsecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 were evaluated. All patients underwent clinical evaluation and follow-up, laboratory measurements and a thoracic computerized tomography, including the measurement of epicardial fat thickness. Low vitamin D was defined as levels <20ng/mL (<50nmol/L) and deficient Vitamin D as a level [&le;]12ng/mL (<30nmol/L)

RESULTSOf the 551 patients included, low vitamin D levels were present in 45.6% and deficient levels in 10.9%. Deficient Vitamin D levels were associated with mortality (HR 2.11, 95%CI 1.24-3.58, p=0.006) but not with critical COVID-19, adjusted for age, sex, body-mass index and epicardial fat. Using model-based causal mediation analyses the increased risk of COVID-19 mortality conferred by low vitamin D levels was partly mediated by its effect on D-dimer and cardiac ultrasensitive troponins. Notably, increased risk of COVID-19 mortality conferred by low vitamin D levels was independent of BMI and epicardial fat.

CONCLUSIONVitamin D deficiency ([&le;]12ng/mL or <30nmol/L), is independently associated with COVID-19 mortality after adjustment for visceral fat (epicardial fat thickness). Low vitamin D may contribute to a pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic state, increasing the risk for adverse COVID-19 outcomes. DeepFake electrocardiograms: the key for open science for artificial intelligence in medicine Recent global developments underscore the prominent role big data have in modern medical science. Privacy issues are a prevalent problem for collecting and sharing data between researchers. Synthetic data generated to represent real data carrying similar information and distribution may alleviate the privacy issue.

In this study, we present generative adversarial networks (GANs) capable of generating realistic synthetic DeepFake 12-lead 10-sec electrocardiograms (ECGs). We have developed and compare two methods, WaveGAN* and Pulse2Pulse GAN. We trained the GANs with 7,233 real normal ECG to produce 121,977 DeepFake normal ECGs. By verifying the ECGs using a commercial ECG interpretation program (MUSE 12SL, GE Healthcare), we demonstrate that the Pulse2Pulse GAN was superior to the WaveGAN to produce realistic ECGs. ECG intervals and amplitudes were similar between the DeepFake and real ECGs. These synthetic ECGs are fully anonymous and cannot be referred to any individual, hence they may be used freely. The synthetic dataset will be available as open access for researchers at OSF.io and the DeepFake generator available at the Python Package Index (PyPI) for generating synthetic ECGs.

In conclusion, we were able to generate realistic synthetic ECGs using adversarial neural networks on normal ECGs from two population studies, i.e., there by addressing the relevant privacy issues in medical datasets. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness BackgroundMultiple COVID-19 vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).

Methods and FindingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalization outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario.

We project that one-year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5 year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% Credible Interval: 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Varying these assumptions, we generally find that prioritizing the older (65+) population prevents more deaths, but broad distribution from the outset is economically comparable in many scenarios, and either scheme can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. However, high vaccine prices ($10/dose) may not be cost-effective.

The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses.

These projections are limited by the mechanisms present in the model. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritizing groups like healthcare or other essential workers. Additionally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs is uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.

ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact, and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact, but the advantage of focusing initially on older, high-risk populations may be smaller in generally younger populations where many people have already been infected, typical of many low- and -middle income countries, as long as vaccination gives good protection against infection as well as disease.

Author SummaryO_ST_ABSWhy Was This Study Done?C_ST_ABS- The evidence base for health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income settings is limited.
- Searching PubMed, medRxiv, and econLit using the search term ("coronavirus" OR "covid" OR "ncov") AND ("vaccination" OR "immunisation") AND ("model" OR "cost" OR "economic") for full text articles published in any language between 1 January 2020 and 20 January 2021, returned 29 (PubMed), 1,167 (medRxiv) and 0 (econLit) studies: 20 overall were relevant, with only 4 exclusively focused on low- or middle-income countries (India, China, Mexico), while 3 multi-country analyses also included low- or middle-income settings,
- However only three of these studies are considered economic outcomes, all of them comparing the costs of vaccination to the costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions and concluding that both are necessary to reduce infections and maximise economic benefit.
- The majority of studies are set in high-income settings and conclude that targeting COVID-19 vaccination to older age groups is the preferred strategy to minimise mortality, particularly when vaccine supplies are constrained, while other age- or occupational risk groups should be priorities when vaccine availability increases or when other policy objectives are pursued.


What Did the Researchers Do and Find?- We combined epidemiological and economic analysis of COVID-19 vaccination based on real-world disease and programmatic information in the Sindh province of Pakistan.
- We found vaccination in this setting is likely to be highly cost-effective, and even cost saving, as long as the vaccine is reasonably priced and efficacy is high.
- Unlike studies in high-income settings, we also found that vaccination programmes targeting all adults may have almost as much benefit as those initially targeted at older populations, likely reflecting the higher previous infection rates and different demography in these settings.


What Do These Findings Mean?- Lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and international bodies providing guidance for LMICs need to consider evidence specific to these settings when making recommendations about COVID-19 vaccination.
- Further data and model-based analyses in such settings are urgently needed in order to ensure that vaccination decisions are appropriate to these contexts. A cross-sectional study of psychosocial factors and sickness presenteeism in Japanese workers during the COVID-19 pandemic BackgroundWe examined the association between socioeconomic and health status, and lifestyle and sickness presenteeism among Japanese workers during the COVID-19 epidemic.

MethodsA cross-sectional study using an Internet-monitor survey was conducted in December, 2020 in Japan. Of 33,302 survey participants, we analyzed 27,036 participants (13,814 men and 13,222 women) who reported experience with sickness presenteeism.

ResultsThe odds ratio (OR) of sickness presenteeism associated with unmarried versus married status was 1.15. Respective figures for other variables were 1.11 for manual laboring work compared to desk work; 1.79 and 2.29 for loss of employment at the time the pandemic began and continuation of unemployment compared to maintaining employment during the pandemic; and 3.34 for a feeling of financial instability compared to stability.

ConclusionThe issue of sickness presenteeism has become more prominent under the COVID-19 epidemic. Why one size fits all is not enough when designing covid-19 immunity certificates for domestic use: a UK wide cross-sectional online survey ObjectivesThe present study explored publics willingness to use COVID-19 immunity certificates across six different domestic scenarios.

DesignCross-sectional online survey.

SettingUK representative survey conducted on the 3rd of August 2021.

Participants534 UK residents over 18 years old.

InterventionsParticipants replied to the same set of questions.

Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was willingness to use immunity certificates across three different domestic settings (1. Visiting the GP for a non-urgent health issue, 2. Dining in a restaurant, and 3. Attending a performance in a theatre). For each setting two options, one prioritising convenience (option A) and the other privacy (option B), were offered. Our secondary outcome measures were computed indices from items adapted from the Health Belief Model; Attitudes towards sharing immunity status with service providers; Prior to COVID-19 lifestyle. In addition, we recorded data about respondents socio-demographic characteristics.

ResultsRespondents were more willing to use immunity certificates that prioritised convenience, rather than privacy, when visiting their GP (92%). However, privacy was more favorable (84%) in the other two settings (dining in a restaurant and going to a theatre) compared to convenience (39%). Personal beliefs about COVID-19 and immunity certificates were associated with variations in willingness to use these across all scenarios. No variations were observed across socio-demographics and lifestyle.

ConclusionsThe findings of this survey suggest that there is not one size fits all solution for designing immunity certificates. Immunity certificates are complex socio-technical systems, any attempt to implement these for domestic use should be tailored to different settings and user needs. The design of certification services requires a more evidence-based approach and further research is needed to understand how different settings, design elements (like convenience or privacy) and personal beliefs about the pandemic should inform their design.

Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThis study presents unique knowledge about the publics willingness to use immunity certificates for domestic purposes where there is very little published research at the moment.
C_LIO_LIThe study reports knowledge about the interaction between individual characteristics, domestic settings, and types of immunity certificate design on willingness to use these certificates.
C_LIO_LIUK nationally representative sample for age, gender, and ethnic background, but limited to people who have the means and capacity to use digital technologies (survey administered using Prolific.co).
C_LIO_LIWe present evidence-based recommendations for Public Health services and policy makers about the use of immunity certificates in different domestic settings.
C_LIO_LISince, as to the writing of this paper, COVID-19 certification has not been mandated in the UK, the scenarios used in the survey were hypothetical.
C_LI SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies to contain school-associated transmission: model-based analysis of impact and cost of diagnostic testing, screening, and surveillance BackgroundIn March 2021, the Biden administration allocated $10 billion for COVID-19 testing in schools. We evaluate the costs and benefits of testing strategies to reduce the infection risks of full-time in-person K-8 education at different levels of community incidence.

MethodsWe used an agent-based network model to simulate transmission in elementary and middle school communities, parameterized to a US school structure and assuming dominance of the delta COVID-19 variant. We assess the value of different strategies for testing students and faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic testing ("test to stay" policies that take the place of isolation for symptomatic students or quarantine for exposed classrooms); screening (routinely testing asymptomatic individuals to identify infections and contain transmission); and surveillance (testing a random sample of students to signaling undetected transmission and trigger additional investigation or interventions).

Main outcome measuresWe project 30-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; proportion of cases detected; proportion of planned and unplanned days out of school; and the cost of testing programs and of childcare costs associated with different strategies. For screening policies, we further estimate cost per SARS-CoV-2 infection averted in students and staff, and for surveillance, probability of correctly or falsely triggering an outbreak response at different incidence and attack rates.

ResultsAccounting for programmatic and childcare costs, "test to stay" policies achieve similar model-projected transmission to quarantine policies, with reduced overall costs. Weekly universal screening prevents approximately 50% of in-school transmission, with a lower projected societal cost than hybrid or remote schooling. The cost per infection averted in students and staff by weekly screening is lower for older students and schools with higher mitigation and declines as community transmission rises. In settings where local student incidence is unknown or rapidly changing, surveillance may trigger detection of moderate-to-large in-school outbreaks with fewer resources compared to screening.

Conclusions"Test to stay" policies and/or screening tests can facilitate consistent in-person school attendance with low transmission risk across a range of community incidence. Surveillance may be a useful reduced-cost option for detecting outbreaks and identifying school environments that may benefit from increased mitigation. Structural disconnectome mapping of cognitive function in post-stroke patients Sequalae following stroke represents a significant challenge in current rehabilitation. The location and size of focal lesions are only moderately predictive of the diverse cognitive outcome after stroke. One explanation building on recent work on brain networks proposes that the cognitive consequences of focal lesions are caused by damages to anatomically distributed brain networks supporting cognition rather than specific lesion locations. To investigate the association between post-stroke structural disconnectivity and cognitive performance, we estimated individual level whole-brain disconnectivity probability maps based on lesion maps from 102 stroke patients using normative data from healthy controls. Cognitive performance was assessed in the whole sample using Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and a more comprehensive computerized test protocol was performed on a subset (n=82). Multivariate analysis using Partial Least Squares on the disconnectome maps revealed that higher disconnectivity in right insular and frontal operculum, superior temporal gyrus and putamen was associated with poorer MoCA performance, indicating that lesions in regions connected with these brain regions are more likely to cause cognitive impairment. Furthermore, our results indicated that disconnectivity within these clusters was associated with poorer performance across multiple cognitive domains. These findings demonstrate that the extent and distribution of structural disconnectivity following stroke are sensitive to cognitive deficits and may provide important clinical information predicting post stroke cognitive sequalae. Declines and pronounced state disparities in prescription opioid distribution in the United States BackgroundThe United States (US) opioid epidemic is a persistent and pervasive public health emergency as it continues to claim the lives of Americans through addiction and overdose. There have been sustained efforts to reverse this iatrogenic crisis over the past decade. This study analyzed the changes in prescription opioid distribution for pain and identified regional differences between 2010 and 2019.

Methods and FindingsOpioid production data was obtained from the DEAs annual production quotas. Total opioid production has decreased 41.5% from 2013 (87.6 morphine mg equivalent metric tons) to 2019 (51.3). Opioid distribution from 2010 to 2019 was collected for ten prescription opioids (codeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, and tapentadol) from the US Drug Enforcement Administrations Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System. Regional variance was expressed as the ratio of the 95th to 5th percentiles of opioid distribution per state, corrected for population. The peak year for all ten prescription opioids was identified, individually, as between 2010 and 2013, except for codeine (2015). There was a 51.96% overall decrease in opioid distribution per capita with the largest decrease in Florida (-61.61%) and smallest in Texas (-18.64%). The largest quantities of opioid distribution were observed in Tennessee (520.70 morphine mg equivalent or MME per person) and Delaware (251.45) in 2011 and 2019. The smallest was Nebraska (153.39) in 2011 and Minnesota (90.49) in 2019. The highest to lowest state ratio of total opioid use, corrected for population, was sizable in 2011 (5.25) and 2019 (2.78). Similarly, the mean 95th/5th ratio was relatively stable in from 2011 (4.78 +0.70) and 2019 (5.64+0.98). The 95th/5th ratio in 2019 was greatest for methadone (10.23) and oxymorphone (10.09) and smallest for morphine (2.20) and fentanyl (2.12). Southern states (e.g MS, TN, AL, AK, DE, and NC) had the highest per capita distribution for eight of the ten opioids in 2019. The strength of the correlation between per capita hydrocodone and codeine, and hydromorphone and codeine increased significantly from 2011 to 2019

ConclusionsThis study found a decline in total production and distribution for ten prescription opioids during the last half-decade. However, distribution was non-homogeneous at a state level. Analysis of regional differences revealed a three-fold difference in the 95th:5th percentile ratio between states which was unchanged over the past decade. Future research focused on identifying factors contributing to the observed regional variability could prove valuable to understanding, and potentially remediating, the pronounced disparities in prescription opioid use in the US. Xenobiotic tracers uncover the gastrointestinal passage, intestinal epithelial cellular uptake and Ago2 loading of milk miRNAs in neonates BackgroundExclusive breastfeeding is the best source of nutrition for most infants, but it is not always possible. Enteral nutrition influences intestinal gene regulation and the susceptibility for inflammatory bowel disorders, such as necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). In modern neonatology it is observed that lactase activity increases during intestinal maturation, but formula-fed infants exhibit lower activity levels than milk-fed infants.

ObjectiveWe interrogate the transmissibility of milk miRNAs, since human breast milk has a high miRNA content in comparison to other body fluids. Our data contribute to the controversial discussion whether milk miRNAs could influence gene regulation in term and preterm neonates and thus might vertically transmit developmental relevant signals.

DesignFollowing their cross-species profiling via miRNA deep-sequencing we utilized dietary xenobiotic taxon-specific milk miRNA as tracers in human and porcine neonates, followed by functional studies in primary human fetal intestinal epithelial cells (HIEC-6) using Ad5-mediated miRNA-gene transfer.

ResultsWe show that mammals have in common many milk miRNAs yet exhibit taxon-specific miRNA fingerprints. We traced intact bovine-specific miRNAs from formula-nutrition in human preterm stool and 9 days after the onset of enteral feeding in intestinal cells of preterm piglets. Few hours after introducing enteral feeding in preterm piglets with supplemented reporter miRNAs (cel-miR-39-5p/-3p), we observed enrichment of the xenobiotic cel-miR in blood serum and in Ago2-immunocomplexes from intestinal biopsies. In contrast, we did not observe xenobiotic miRNAs in neonatal porcine cerebrospinal fluid.

ConclusionsTaken together, our data point to a transmissibility of milk miRNA signals, which could be relevant at least for intestinal maturation. Ad5-based miRNA-gene transfer into HIEC-6 revealed putative milk miRNA targets on the protein and transcriptome levels. Results suggest that milk miRNAs could influence gene expression in intestinal epithelia of neonates under special conditions.

Graphical abstract

O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=113 SRC="FIGDIR/small/21262525v4_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1">
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org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8e0435org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1b6747corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1998821org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b84a04_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_FIG C_FIG It is already known that exclusive breastfeeding is the best source of nutrition for neonates.Human breast milk has a high miRNA content in comparison to other body fluids. It is controversially discussed whether they could influence gene regulation in term and preterm neonates and thus might vertically transmit developmental relevant signals. Here, we contribute important new findings: Mammals have in common a significant number of milk miRNAs yet exhibit taxon-specific fingerprints. These differences allowed us to exploit xenobiotic miRNAs as tracers in human preterm neonates, who routinely received formula-supplemented nutrition in addition to breast milk. Tracer miRNAs survived the gastrointestinal (GI) transit in human preterm neonates. In a preterm piglet model the reporter miRNA did not only survive GI transit, but accumulated in the bloodstream few hours post-feeding. Moreover, we show that, cel-mir-39-5p and cel-miR-39-3p became loaded to Ago2 in intestinal tissue samples, which is prerequisite for milk microRNAs biological relevance. Adenovirus type 5-based miRNA-gene transfer into HIEC-6 allowed us to examine predicted bovine milk miRNA targets on the protein and transcriptome levels. RABENOSYN separation-of-function mutations uncouple endosomal recycling from lysosomal degradation causing a distinct Mendelian Disorder Rabenosyn (RBSN) is a conserved endosomal protein necessary for regulating internalized cargo. Here, we present genetic, cellular and biochemical evidence that two distinct RBSN missense variants are responsible for a novel Mendelian disorder consisting of progressive muscle weakness, facial dysmorphisms, ophthalmoplegia and intellectual disability. Using exome sequencing, we identified recessively-acting germline alleles p.Arg180Gly and p.Gly183Arg which are both situated in the FYVE domain of RBSN. We find that these variants abrogate binding to its cognate substrate PI3P and thus prevent its translocation to early endosomes. Although the endosomal recycling pathway was unaltered, mutant p.Gly183Arg patient fibroblasts exhibit accumulation of cargo tagged for lysosomal degradation. Our results suggest that these variants are separation-of-function alleles, which cause a delay in endosomal maturation without affecting cargo recycling. We conclude that distinct germline mutations in RBSN cause non-overlapping phenotypes with specific and discrete endolysosomal cellular defects. Inflammasome-related markers at the ICU admission are not associated with outcome in the critically ill COVID-19 patients. PurposeDevelopment of targeted biological therapies for COVID-19 requires reliable biomarkers that could help indicate the responding patients. Hyperactivation of the inflammasome by SARS-CoV2 virus is hypothesized to contribute to severe course of the COVID-19 disease. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of several inflammasome-related cytokines and proteins at the admission to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Patients and methodsPlasma samples were obtained from 45 critically ill COVID-19 patients and from 10 patients any without any signs of infection (TBI, traumatic brain injury) on admission to the ICU. The concentration of IL-1, IL-1{beta}, IL-18, IL-1RA, galectin-1, ASC, LDH, ferritin, and gasdermin D were analyzed. A novel cell-free caspase-1 plasma assay was developed by inhibitor-based immunoprecipitation followed by Western Blot. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded.

ResultsIn-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients reached 62%. Galectin-1 was 1.8-fold lower in COVID-19 than in TBI patients (17101.84 vs. 30764.20 pg/ml, p=0.007), but other inflammasome-related biomarkers were at similar concentrations. Patients with SOFA score of >9 on admission who were at high risk of death had significantly higher galectin-1 but lower IL-1RA in comparison to low-risk patients (25551.3 pg/ml vs 16302.7 pg/ml, p=0.014; 14.5 pg/ml vs 39.4 pg/ml, p=0.04, respectively). Statistically significant correlations were observed between: IL-1 and platelets (r=-0.37), IL-1{beta} and platelets (r=-0.36), ferritin and INR (r=0.39). Activated caspase-1 p35 was detectable in 12/22 COVID-19 patients but in none of the TBI patients. Its presence was related with higher fibrinogen and lower D-dimers. Moreover, the densitometric analysis showed a significantly higher amount of p35 in patients with SOFA> 9.

ConclusionOur results indicate that the systemic markers of activation of the inflammasome in critically ill COVID-19 patients is not directly related with outcome. Therefore, potential interventions aimed at the inflammasome pathway in this group of patients may be of limited effectiveness and should be biomarker-guided. A Randomised Trial of a Wearable UV dosimeter for Skin Cancer Prevention BackgroundNon-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most prevalent cancer in the United States, affecting 5 million people and costing $8.1 billion per year. Despite well-defined guidelines on ultraviolet radiation (UVR) avoidance, it remains difficult for people to assess their individual exposure, as UVR is invisible and the onset of symptoms due to UVR damage are delayed.

MethodsIn a prospective, randomized-controlled trial, 97 patients with a history of actinic keratoses were enrolled from March 2018 to July 2018 and followed over 6 months. 50 patients were given a wearable device that measured UV exposure and a smartphone application that provided both real-time and cumulative UV exposure information, and 47 patients were provided with UV protection counseling by a dermatologist.

ResultsWe observed a significant decrease in the incidence rate of NMSC in the intervention group compared to the control group over 3 months (p = 0.02). We did not observe a significant decrease in the incidence rate of actinic keratoses (AK) in the intervention group compared to the control group. The observed clinical benefit was not accompanied by psychological side effects such as anxiety and depression.

ConclusionsThis study suggests that providing real-time UV exposure data using a wearable UV dosimeter is a safe and effective behavioral change strategy to prevent NMSC. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute, contract HHSN261201700005C; ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT03315286.) Decision curve analysis to identify optimal candidates of liver resection for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma with hepatitis B cirrhosis：A cohort study BackgroundThe selection criterion for liver resection (LR) in intermediate-stage (IM) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. This study aims to compare LR and transarterial chemoembolization in the range of predicted death risk

MethodsThe multivariable Cox regression model (MVR) was estimated to predict mortality at 5yr. The cut-off values were determined by a two-piece-wise linear regression model, decision curve analysis with MVR model, and hazard ratio curve for treatment plotted against the predicted mortality.

Results825 IM-HCC with hepatitis B cirrhosis were included for analysis (TACE, n=622; LR, n=203). The 5-yr overall survival rate of LR patients was higher than the TACE group (52.8% vs. 20.8%; P<0.0001). The line of LR and TACE were crossing with predicted death risk at 100% (P for interaction =0.008). The benefit of LR versus TACE decreased progressively as predicted death risk>0.55 (95%CI: 0.45,0.62). When predicted death risk over 0.7, decision curve analysis suggested that LR and TACE did not increase net benefit. Patients were then divided into four subgroups by the cut-off values (<0.45, 0.45[&ge;] /<0.62, 0.62[&ge;] /<0.7, [&ge;] 0.7). The stratified analysis of treatment in different subgroups, hazard ratios were 0.39 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.56), 0.36 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.56), 0.51 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.98), and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.80), respectively.

ConclusionsLR reached the maximal relative utility in the interval of 0.45 to 0.62, and both LR and TACE did not increase net benefit at the 5-yr death risk over 0.7. Modeling the COVID-19 transmission in Italy: The roles of asymptomatic cases, social distancing, and lockdowns in the first and the second waves The SEIR model of COVID-19 is developed to investigate the roles of physical distancing, lockdowns and asymptomatic cases in Italy. In doing so, two types of policies including behavioral measures and lockdown measures are embedded in the model. Compared with existing models, the model successfully reproduces similar multiple observed outputs such as infected and recovered patients in Italy by July 2020. This study concludes that the first policy is important once the number of infected cases is relatively low. However, once the number of infected cases is very high so the society cannot identify infected and disinfected people, the second policy must be applied soon. It is thus this study suggests that relaxed lockdowns lead to the second wave of the COVID-19 around the world. It is hoped that the model can enhance our understanding on the roles of behavioral measures, lockdowns, and undocumented cases, so-called asymptomatic cases, on the COVID-19 flow. Signals of significantly increased vaccine breakthrough, decreased hospitalization rates, and less severe disease in patients with COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Houston, Texas Genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to dramatically alter the landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recently described variant of concern designated Omicron (B.1.1.529) has rapidly spread worldwide and is now responsible for the majority of COVID-19 cases in many countries. Because Omicron was recognized very recently, many knowledge gaps exist about its epidemiology and clinical severity and disease course. A comprehensive genome sequencing study of SARS-CoV-2 in the Houston Methodist healthcare system identified 862 symptomatic patients with infections caused by Omicron from late November 2021 through December 18, 2021. Omicron very rapidly increased in only three weeks to cause 90% of all new COVID-19 cases. Compared to patients infected with either Alpha or Delta variants in our healthcare system, Omicron patients were significantly younger, had significantly increased vaccine breakthrough rates, and were significantly less likely to be hospitalized. Omicron patients required less intense respiratory support and had a shorter length of hospital stay, consistent with decreased disease severity. Although the number of Omicron patients we studied is relatively small, in the aggregate the data document the unusually rapid spread and increased occurrence of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant in metropolitan Houston, and provide information about disease character. Pausing methotrexate improves immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccination in elderly patients with rheumatic diseases ObjectiveTo study the effect of methotrexate (MTX) and its discontinuation on the humoral immune response after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD).

MethodsNeutralising SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured after second vaccination in 64 rheumatic patients on methotrexate therapy, 31 of whom temporarily paused medication without a fixed regimen. The control group consisted of 21 AIRD patients without immunosuppressive medication.

ResultsMTX patients showed a significantly lower median antibody response compared to AIRD patients without immunosuppressive therapy (p< 0.001). Young age (<60 years) and MTX-hold after vaccination were found to be the main factors influencing antibody response after vaccination, while BMI or MTX dose demonstrated no effect. For patients taking MTX, age correlated negatively with immune response (r=-0.49; p<0.001) and all patients with antibody levels (14 %) below the cut-off were older than 60 years. Patients who held MTX during at least one vaccination showed significantly higher median neutralising antibody levels after second vaccination, compared to patients who continued MTX therapy during both vaccinations (68.82 %, 92.73 %, p=<0.001). This effect was particularly pronounced in patients older than 60 years (p=0.0016). The impact of the time period after vaccination was greater than of the time before vaccination with the critical cut-off being 10 days.

ConclusionMTX reduces the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in an age-dependent manner. Our data further suggest that holding MTX for at least 10 days after vaccination significantly improves the antibody response in patients over 60 years of age. Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) and imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. The individuals attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number Rt decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.99, 0.89 and 0.77 in the yellow, orange and red tier, respectively. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 37% of the hospitalizations between November 5 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases. Feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness program for stroke survivors and caregivers BackgroundMindfulness is promising for individuals with neurological disorders and their caregivers to improve psychological well-being. The potential application of a Langerian mindfulness intervention, focused on attention to variability, however, is still unknown.

ObjectiveTo determine the feasibility (usability, satisfaction, and potential effectiveness on psychological well-being) of an online mindfulness intervention for stroke survivors and caregivers.

MethodologyUsing mixed-methods, 11 stroke survivors and 3 caregivers participated in a 3-week, online, Langerian mindfulness intervention. A semi-structured interview assessed the interventions usability and gathered feedback. Self-reported measures about psychological well-being were documented remotely three times (pre, post, one-month follow-up).

ResultsQualitatively, participants were highly satisfied with the intervention, reported subjective benefits, but the usability of the online platform was poor. None of the self-reported measures changed over time.

ConclusionThis study provided evidence of feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness intervention in a new population: stroke survivors and caregivers. Evaluating a first fully automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini Interview (MMI) methodology: results from a feasibility study ObjectivesGlobal, Covid-driven restrictions around face-to-face interviews for healthcare student selection have forced admissions staff to rapidly adopt adapted online systems before supporting evidence is available. We have developed, what we believe is, the first fully automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini-Interview (MMI) methodology. This study aimed to explore test re-test reliability, acceptability and usability of the system.

Design, setting and participantsmixed-methods feasibility study in Physician Associate (PA) programmes from two UK and one US university during 2019 - 2020.

Primary, secondary outcomesFeasibility measures (test retest reliability acceptability and usability) were assessed using intra-class correlation (ICC), descriptive statistics, thematic and content analysis.

MethodsVolunteers took (T1), then repeated (T2), the automated MMI, with a seven-day interval (+/- 2) then completed an evaluation questionnaire. Admissions staff participated in focus group discussions.

ResultsSixty-two students and seven admission staff participated; 34 students and four staff from UK and 28 students and three staff from US universities.

Good-excellent test-retest reliability was observed with T1 and T2 ICC between 0.62-0.81 (p<0.001) when assessed by individual total scores (range 80.6-119), station total scores 0.6-0.91, p<0.005, individual site (all ICC[&ge;] 0.76 p<0.001) and mean test retest across sites 0.82 p<0.001 (95% CI 0.7-0.9).

Admissions staff reported potential to reduce resource costs and bias through a more objective screening tool for pre-selection or to replace some MMI stations in a  hybrid model. Maintaining human interaction through  touch points was considered essential.

Users positively evaluated the system, stating it was intuitive with an accessible interface. Concepts chosen for dynamic probing needed to be appropriately tailored.

ConclusionThese preliminary findings suggest that the system is reliable, generating consistent scores for candidates and is acceptable to end-users provided human touchpoints are maintained. Thus, there is evidence for the potential of such an automated system to augment healthcare student selection processes. Remote exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke is associated with lower exercise capacity through effects on oxygen pulse, a proxy of cardiac stroke volume BackgroundPast exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) is associated with exercise limitation. Pulmonary factors including air trapping contribute to this limitation but the contribution of cardiovascular factors is unclear.

ObjectiveTo determine contribution of cardiovascular mechanisms to SHS-associated exercise limitation.

MethodsWe examined the cardiovascular responses to maximum effort exercise in 245 never-smokers with remote, prolonged occupational exposure to SHS and no known history of cardiovascular disease. We estimated the contribution of oxygen-pulse (proxy for cardiac stroke volume) and changes in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressures (DBP) and heart rate (HR) towards exercise capacity, and examined whether the association of SHS with exercise capacity was mediated through these variables.

ResultsAt peak exercise (highest workload completed [WattsPeak]=156{+/-}46 watts [135{+/-}33 %predicted]), oxygen consumption (VO2Peak) and oxygen-pulse (O2-PulsePeak) were 1,557{+/-}476 mL/min (100{+/-}24 %predicted) and 11.0{+/-}3.0 mL/beat (116{+/-}25 %predicted), respectively, with 29% and 3% participants not achieving their predicted normal range. Oxygen saturation at peak exercise was 98{+/-}1% and remained >93% in all participants. Sixty-six percent showed hypertensive response to exercise. In models adjusted for covariates, WattsPeak was associated directly with O2-PulsePeak, HRPeak, and SBPPeak and inversely with SHS, air trapping (RV/TLC), and rise of SBP over workload (all P<0.01). Moreover, SHS exposure association with WattsPeak was substantially (41%) mediated through its effect on O2-PulsePeak (P<0.038). Although not statistically significant, a considerable proportion (36%) of air trapping effect on WattsPeak seemed to be mediated through O2-PulsePeak (P=0.078). The likelihood of having baseline respiratory symptoms (modified Medical Research Council score [&ge;]1) was associated with steeper rise in SBP over workload (P<0.01).

ConclusionIn a never-smoker population with remote exposure to SHS, abnormal escalation of afterload and an SHS-associated reduction in cardiac output contributed to lower exercise capacity.

Key messagesO_ST_ABSWhat is the key question?C_ST_ABSWhat are the cardiovascular health effects of past exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke in never-smokers? How do pulmonary and cardiovascular systems interact in this setting?

What is the bottom line?Healthy never-smokers with history of remote past exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke have an abnormal cardiovascular response to exercise, which is characterized by a stroke volume and thus an exercise capacity that are reduced proportional to their years of exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke.

Why read on?The abnormal cardiovascular response to exercise in this population reveals the presence of an occult or subclinical pathology that impairs the cardiopulmonary functional reserve and reduces the efficiency of bodys oxygen delivery machinery, which could be disadvantageous during the times of increased cardiopulmonary output demands as in physiological distress or disease. Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis IntroductionSeveral HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritised HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (i) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (ii) review inclusion of community-level HIV risk in predictive models, and (iii) examine predictive performance.

MethodsWe searched nine databases from inception until February 15, 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction, and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random-effects meta-analysis to summarise hazard ratios and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

ResultsFrom 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomised-controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above-25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV-2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n=3). Community-level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but were only considered in three of 11 multi-site studies. The AUC-ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC-ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I2: 64.02%).

ConclusionsYounger age, non-cohabiting, and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low-to-moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalisability, limiting their programmatic utility.

Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to  at-risk individuals, and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes.

PROSPERO NumberCRD42021236367 The incidence of delirium in an acute geriatric community hospital: an observational cohort feasibility study. ObjectivesDelirium in hospitalised older adults is associated with negative health outcomes. Admission to an alternative care setting may lower the incidence of delirium. The Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH) was recently opened in the Netherlands and uses a multi-component non-pharmacological intervention strategy to prevent delirium. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of delirium at the AGCH and compare this incidence to existing rates from literature. If a possible effect on delirium is seen in this comparison this would support conducting a larger prospectively controlled study on delirium in this new care setting.

DesignProspective cohort feasibility study; exploratory meta-analysis of proportions.

Setting and ParticipantsThe AGCH is an acute geriatric unit in a skilled nursing facility for patients aged >65 years with acute medical conditions.

MethodsDelirium assessment using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) upon admission and on day one, two and three or until delirium had resolved. Patients charts were reviewed if CAM was missing. In an linear mixed-effects model, the delirium incidence rate in AGCH was compared to pooled delirium incidence rates from six studies found in a high-quality review.

Results214 patients from the AGCH (mean age 81.9 years, 47% male, 12% with a history of dementia) were included in the analysis. Delirium developed in 8% (18/214) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5-13%) of patients during AGCH admission compared to 16% (95% CI 12-21%) in hospitals. Admission to the AGCH was associated with a decreased delirium incidence rate compared to the hospital control group (OR[odds ratio]= 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98, p-value=0.044).

Conclusions and implicationsThe delirium incidence in the AGCH was low compared to those incidences found in general hospitals in literature. Based on these findings a controlled observational or randomized study measuring delirium in this care setting is recommended.