Shocked, relaxed, tired: Mental health during the three waves of the Covid-19 BackgroundSeveral recent studies reported that the Covid-19 pandemic induces significant mental distress. However, it remains unknown whether mental distress persists or subsides in response to consecutive Covid-19 waves. Therefore, we here examine mental distress before and across the three Covid-19 waves.

MethodsWe measured stress and depressive symptoms prior to and across the three Covid-19 waves in a well-established population-based sample. A total of 330 participants completed e-questionnaires prior to and during the Covid-19 waves. Friedmans repeated-measures and Wilcoxon rank-sum pairwise test with Bonferroni correction were used to investigate repeated-measure differences, while the Kruskal-Wallis test was used to assess the effect of behavioral and physiological parameters on mental health.

ResultsWe found significantly increased mental distress during each of the Covid-19 waves compared with the pre-Covid-19 period. Increased mental distress was more common in women and most pronounced during the 1st and in particular, the 3rd Covid-19 wave. The stress and depressive symptoms increased during the pandemic compared with the pre-Covid-19 period by a maximum of 1.58 and 3.63 times, respectively. Negative emotions and loneliness were identified as the most significant risk factors of Covid-19-induced mental distress, while resilience was found to be protective.

ConclusionsMental distress surged during all the Covid-19 waves without showing extinction. This pattern is mechanistically reminiscent of the post-traumatic stress disorder. Our results suggest that the Covid-19 pandemic underlies the development of a novel chronic mental health disorder and do not exclude possible further deterioration of mental health in the case of future Covid-19 waves.
Trends in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Multimorbidity Prevalence in the United States: A Serial Cross-Sectional National Health Interview Survey Analysis from 1999 to 2018 BackgroundDisparities in multimorbidity prevalence indicate health inequalities. This study sought to determine if gaps in multimorbidity prevalence by race and ethnicity are decreasing over time.

Methods and findingsSerial cross-sectional analysis of the National Health Interview Survey from years 1999 to 2018. The study included individuals [&ge;]18 years old, categorized by self-reported race, ethnicity, age, and income. The main outcomes were temporal trends in multimorbidity prevalence based on the self-reported presence of [&ge;]2 of 9 chronic conditions. The study sample included 596,355 individuals (4.7% Asian, 11.8% Black, 13.8% Latino/Hispanic, and 69.7% White). In 1999, the estimated prevalence of multimorbidity was 5.9% among Asian, 17.4% among Black, 10.7% among Latino/Hispanic, and 13.5% among White individuals. Prevalence increased for all racial/ethnic groups during the study period (P<0.005 for each), with no significant change in the differences between them. In 2018, when compared with White people, multimorbidity was more prevalent among Black individuals (+2.5 percent points [95% CI: +0.5, +4.6]) and less prevalent among Asian and Latino individuals (-6.6 points [-8.8, -4.4] and -2.1 points [-4.0, -0.2], respectively). The estimated prevalence of reporting at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 conditions all increased with age across all groups, with Black individuals having the greatest prevalence in each age category. Among those aged [&ge;]30 years, Black people had multimorbidity rates equivalent to those of Latino/Hispanic and White people aged 5 years older, and Asian people aged 10 years older. Notably, the prevalence of multimorbidity diverged between Black people and White people among those aged 30 years, reached its maximum difference of 10.1 percentage points (95% CI: 8.2, 12.1) among those aged 60, and converged to reach similar rates among those aged [&ge;]80.

ConclusionsFrom 1999 to 2018, a period of increasing multimorbidity prevalence for all the groups studied, there has not been any significant progress in eliminating disparities between Black and White people. The disparity began among young adults. Public health interventions that prevent the onset of chronic conditions in early life may be needed to eliminate these disparities.
The Acute Treatment of Migraine with Low-Dose Naltrexone/Acetaminophen Combinations and Each Component: Findings of a Small, Randomized, Double-Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial We tested two low-dose naltrexone and acetaminophen combinations and each component in the acute treatment of migraine. The patients use a single-dose of the study medication for a moderate or severe pain intensity migraine attack. Patients were adults with migraine with or without aura experiencing 2 to 20 (average 6.4) monthly migraine days. The co-primary endpoints were pain-freedom and absence of prospectively-identified most bothersome migraine-associated symptom 2 hours after dosing. We randomized 92 patients; 72 completed the study (mean age, 43 years; 75% women). Pain-freedom at 2 hours was 10.2% higher than placebo with naltrexone 2.25 mg/acetaminophen 325 mg, 10.9% with naltrexone 3.25 mg/acetaminophen 325 mg, 17.3% with naltrexone 2.25 mg, and 31.3% with acetaminophen 325 mg. The treatment groups migraine burden at baseline was unbalanced due to randomized patients uneven study completion. The acetaminophen group had the lowest migraine burden, giving its results lower credibility.

Saliently, Low-dose naltrexone alone (n=19) had a 17.3% higher response rate for headache pain-freedom at 2 hours than placebo (n=17). The naltrexone and the placebo groups were the largest and had a balanced disease burden, implying higher credibility to the naltrexone group results. We found low-dose naltrexone and acetaminophen combination, low-dose naltrexone, and acetaminophen had higher response rates than placebo in treating headache pain. The most commonly reported adverse events were sedation, nausea, and dizziness. We postulate that naltrexones toll-like receptor (TLR4) antagonism properties prevent pro-inflammatory cytokines production in the trigeminal ganglion averting "overactive nerves" (laymans term) and migraine. Although this trial used low-dose naltrexone (defined as 1 - 5 mg/day), future phase 3 studies will test a range of naltrexone and acetaminophen combination doses. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness BackgroundMultiple COVID-19 vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).

Methods and FindingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalization outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario.

We project that one-year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5 year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% Credible Interval: 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Varying these assumptions, we generally find that prioritizing the older (65+) population prevents more deaths, but broad distribution from the outset is economically comparable in many scenarios, and either scheme can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. However, high vaccine prices ($10/dose) may not be cost-effective.

The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses.

These projections are limited by the mechanisms present in the model. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritizing groups like healthcare or other essential workers. Additionally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs is uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.

ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact, and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact, but the advantage of focusing initially on older, high-risk populations may be smaller in generally younger populations where many people have already been infected, typical of many low- and -middle income countries, as long as vaccination gives good protection against infection as well as disease.

Author SummaryO_ST_ABSWhy Was This Study Done?C_ST_ABS- The evidence base for health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income settings is limited.
- Searching PubMed, medRxiv, and econLit using the search term ("coronavirus" OR "covid" OR "ncov") AND ("vaccination" OR "immunisation") AND ("model" OR "cost" OR "economic") for full text articles published in any language between 1 January 2020 and 20 January 2021, returned 29 (PubMed), 1,167 (medRxiv) and 0 (econLit) studies: 20 overall were relevant, with only 4 exclusively focused on low- or middle-income countries (India, China, Mexico), while 3 multi-country analyses also included low- or middle-income settings,
- However only three of these studies are considered economic outcomes, all of them comparing the costs of vaccination to the costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions and concluding that both are necessary to reduce infections and maximise economic benefit.
- The majority of studies are set in high-income settings and conclude that targeting COVID-19 vaccination to older age groups is the preferred strategy to minimise mortality, particularly when vaccine supplies are constrained, while other age- or occupational risk groups should be priorities when vaccine availability increases or when other policy objectives are pursued.


What Did the Researchers Do and Find?- We combined epidemiological and economic analysis of COVID-19 vaccination based on real-world disease and programmatic information in the Sindh province of Pakistan.
- We found vaccination in this setting is likely to be highly cost-effective, and even cost saving, as long as the vaccine is reasonably priced and efficacy is high.
- Unlike studies in high-income settings, we also found that vaccination programmes targeting all adults may have almost as much benefit as those initially targeted at older populations, likely reflecting the higher previous infection rates and different demography in these settings.


What Do These Findings Mean?- Lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and international bodies providing guidance for LMICs need to consider evidence specific to these settings when making recommendations about COVID-19 vaccination.
- Further data and model-based analyses in such settings are urgently needed in order to ensure that vaccination decisions are appropriate to these contexts. Commercialized kit to assess T-cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 S peptides. A pilot study in Health Care Workers. BackgroundIt is crucial to assess the levels of protection generated by natural infection or SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, mainly in individuals professionally exposed and in vulnerable groups. Measuring T-cell responses may complement antibody tests currently in use as correlates of protection. Our aim was to assess the feasibility of a validated assay of T-cell responses.

MethodsTwenty health-care-workers (HCW) were included. Antibody test to SARS-CoV-2 N and S-proteins in parallel with a commercially available whole-blood-interferon-gamma-release-assay (IGRA) to S-peptides and two detection methods, CLIA and ELISA were determined.

ResultsIGRA test detected T-cell responses in naturally exposed and vaccinated HCW already after first vaccination dose. The correlation by the two detection methods was very high (R>0.8) and sensitivity and specificity ranged between 100 and 86% and 100-73% respectively. Even though there was a very high concordance between specific antibody levels and the IGRA assay in the ability to detect immune response to SARS-CoV-2, there was a relatively low quantitative correlation. In the small group primed by natural infection, one vaccine dose was sufficient to reach immune response plateau. IGRA was positive in one, with Ig(S) antibody negative vaccinated immunosuppressed HCW illustrating another advantage of the IGRA-test.

ConclusionWhole-blood-IGRA-tests amenable to automation and constitutes a promising additional tool for measuring the state of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2; they are applicable to large number of samples and may become a valuable correlate of protection to COVID-19, particularly for vulnerable groups at risk of being re-exposed to infection, as are health-care-workers. Characterising SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics to improve the design of antiviral pharmacometric studies A consensus methodology for pharmacometric assessment of candidate SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drugs would be useful for comparing trial results and improving trial design. The time to viral clearance, assessed by serial qPCR of nasopharyngeal swab samples, has been the most widely reported measure of virological response in clinical trials, but it has not been compared formally with other metrics, notably model-based estimates of the rate of viral clearance. We analysed prospectively gathered viral clearance profiles from 280 infection episodes in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We fitted different phenomenological pharmacodynamic models (single exponential decay, bi-exponential, penalised splines) and found that the clearance rate, estimated from a mixed effects single exponential decay model, is a robust pharmacodynamic summary of viral clearance. The rate of viral clearance, estimated from viral densities during the first week following peak viral load, provides increased statistical power (reduced type 2 error) compared with time to clearance. We recommend that pharmacometric antiviral assessments should be conducted in early illness with serial qPCR samples taken over one week. Pausing methotrexate improves immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccination in elderly patients with rheumatic diseases ObjectiveTo study the effect of methotrexate (MTX) and its discontinuation on the humoral immune response after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD).

MethodsNeutralising SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured after second vaccination in 64 rheumatic patients on methotrexate therapy, 31 of whom temporarily paused medication without a fixed regimen. The control group consisted of 21 AIRD patients without immunosuppressive medication.

ResultsMTX patients showed a significantly lower median antibody response compared to AIRD patients without immunosuppressive therapy (p< 0.001). Young age (<60 years) and MTX-hold after vaccination were found to be the main factors influencing antibody response after vaccination, while BMI or MTX dose demonstrated no effect. For patients taking MTX, age correlated negatively with immune response (r=-0.49; p<0.001) and all patients with antibody levels (14 %) below the cut-off were older than 60 years. Patients who held MTX during at least one vaccination showed significantly higher median neutralising antibody levels after second vaccination, compared to patients who continued MTX therapy during both vaccinations (68.82 %, 92.73 %, p=<0.001). This effect was particularly pronounced in patients older than 60 years (p=0.0016). The impact of the time period after vaccination was greater than of the time before vaccination with the critical cut-off being 10 days.

ConclusionMTX reduces the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in an age-dependent manner. Our data further suggest that holding MTX for at least 10 days after vaccination significantly improves the antibody response in patients over 60 years of age. Serum Vitamin D levels are associated with increased COVID-19 severity and mortality independent of whole-body and visceral adiposity INTRODUCTIONCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with susceptibility to infectious disease. In this study, the association between COVID-19 outcomes and vitamin D levels in patients attending a COVID-19 reference center in Mexico City are examined.

METHODSConsecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 were evaluated. All patients underwent clinical evaluation and follow-up, laboratory measurements and a thoracic computerized tomography, including the measurement of epicardial fat thickness. Low vitamin D was defined as levels <20ng/mL (<50nmol/L) and deficient Vitamin D as a level [&le;]12ng/mL (<30nmol/L)

RESULTSOf the 551 patients included, low vitamin D levels were present in 45.6% and deficient levels in 10.9%. Deficient Vitamin D levels were associated with mortality (HR 2.11, 95%CI 1.24-3.58, p=0.006) but not with critical COVID-19, adjusted for age, sex, body-mass index and epicardial fat. Using model-based causal mediation analyses the increased risk of COVID-19 mortality conferred by low vitamin D levels was partly mediated by its effect on D-dimer and cardiac ultrasensitive troponins. Notably, increased risk of COVID-19 mortality conferred by low vitamin D levels was independent of BMI and epicardial fat.

CONCLUSIONVitamin D deficiency ([&le;]12ng/mL or <30nmol/L), is independently associated with COVID-19 mortality after adjustment for visceral fat (epicardial fat thickness). Low vitamin D may contribute to a pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic state, increasing the risk for adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Cell-free DNA ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing to distinguish malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST) from its benign precursor lesion: a cross-sectional study BackgroundThe leading cause of mortality for patients with the Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) cancer predisposition syndrome is development of Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumor (MPNST), an aggressive soft tissue sarcoma. In the setting of NF1, this cancer type frequently arises from within its common and benign precursor, plexiform neurofibroma (PN). Transformation from PN to MPNST is challenging to diagnose due to difficulties in distinguishing cross-sectional imaging results and intralesional heterogeneity resulting in biopsy sampling errors.

Methods and FindingsThis multi-institutional study from the National Cancer Institute and Washington University in St. Louis used fragment size analysis and ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing (ULP-WGS) of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) to distinguish between MPNST and PN in patients with NF1. Following in-silico enrichment for short cfDNA fragments and copy number analysis to estimate the fraction of plasma cfDNA originating from tumor (tumor fraction), we developed a noninvasive classifier which differentiates MPNST from PN with 86% pre-treatment accuracy (91% specificity, 75% sensitivity), and 89% accuracy on serial analysis (91% specificity, 83% sensitivity). Healthy controls without NF1 (subjects = 16, plasma samples = 16), PN (subjects = 23, plasma samples = 23), and MPNST (subjects = 14, plasma samples = 46) cohorts showed significant differences in tumor fraction in plasma (P = 0.001 as well as cfDNA fragment length (P < 0.001) with MPNST samples harboring shorter fragments and being enriched for tumor-derived cfDNA relative to PN and healthy controls. Mutational analysis demonstrated focal NF1 copy number loss in PN and MPNST patient plasma but not in healthy controls. Greater genomic instability including alterations associated with malignant transformation (focal copy number gains in chromosome arms 1q, 7p, 8q, 9q, and 17q; focal copy number losses in SUZ12, SMARCA2, CDKN2A/B, and chromosome arms 6p and 9p) was more prominently observed in MPNST plasma. Furthermore, the sum of longest tumor diameters (SLD) visualized by cross-sectional imaging correlated significantly with paired tumor fractions in plasma from MPNST patients (r = 0.39, P = 0.024). On serial analysis, tumor fraction levels in plasma dynamically correlated with treatment response to therapy and minimal residual disease (MRD) detection before relapse. Study limitations include a modest MPNST sample size despite accrual from two major referral centers for this rare malignancy, and lack of uniform treatment and imaging protocols representing a real-world cohort.

ConclusionsTumor fraction levels derived from cfDNA fragment size and copy number alteration analysis of plasma cfDNA using ULP-WGS significantly correlated with MPNST tumor burden, accurately distinguished MPNST from its benign PN precursor, and dynamically correlated with treatment response. In the future, our findings could form the basis for improved early cancer detection and monitoring in high-risk cancer-predisposed populations.

Author summaryO_ST_ABSWhy was this study done?C_ST_ABS[tpltrtarr] Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is the most common inherited cancer predisposition syndrome.
[tpltrtarr]The leading cause of mortality in NF1 is malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST), an aggressive soft tissue sarcoma that arises from a benign plexiform neurofibroma (PN) precursor lesion.
[tpltrtarr]Transformation from PN to MPNST is challenging to detect by imaging (due to difficulty in distinguishing PN from MPNST radiologically) or by biopsy (due to intralesional heterogeneity), which often delays the diagnosis of MPNST and results in a worsened prognosis.


What did the researchers do and find?[tpltrtarr] We conducted a multi-institutional study involving two large NF1 referral centers, the National Cancer Institute and Washington University in St. Louis, involving 73 patients from whom plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was analyzed using ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing (ULP-WGS).
We found that cfDNA from patients with MPNST harbors a shorter fragmentation profile compared to patients with PN or healthy donors. Using sequencing reads from this fragmentation profile, we quantified genome-wide copy number alterations (CNAs) in cfDNA and used CNAs to estimate the fraction of plasma cfDNA originating from tumor.
[tpltrtarr]Tumor fraction in plasma cfDNA distinguished pre-treatment MPSNT from PN with 86% accuracy. Plasma cfDNA from MPNST and PN patients harbored focal copy number loss of NF1, not found in healthy donors. Strikingly, MPNST patient cfDNA also had significantly greater tumor genomic instability compared to PN, with copy number alterations in key genomic loci previously observed in MPNST tissue (i.e., gain of chromosome arm 8q and loss of 9p), which enabled sensitive and specific liquid biopsy discrimination of MPNST from PN.
[tpltrtarr]Plasma-derived tumor fraction correlated with tumor size from imaging in MPNST patients, and serial cfDNA analysis demonstrated the potential for noninvasive detection of minimal residual disease, treatment response assessment, and the potential for even greater assay sensitivity.


What do these findings mean?[tpltrtarr] Our findings suggest that cfDNA fragment analysis followed by ULP-WGS has the potential to be developed as a biomarker for treatment response, and as a screening assay for early detection of MPNST.
[tpltrtarr]This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence for the ability of liquid biopsy to distinguish between benign and malignant tumors in a heritable cancer predisposition syndrome. Culture and understanding the role of feedback for health professions students: Realist synthesis protocol. IntroductionClinical education has moved to a "competency-based" model with an emphasis on workplace-based learning and assessment which, in turn, depends on feedback to be effective. Further, the understanding of feedback has changed from information about a performance directed to the learner performing the task, to a dialogue, which enables the learner to act and develop.

In health professional education, feedback is a complex interaction between trainee, supervisor, and the healthcare system. Most published research on feedback in health professional education originates in Europe and North America. Our interest is on the impact of Culture on this process, particularly in the context of Asian cultures.

The (scientific) realist approach of Pawson and Tilley provides a means to examine complex interventions in social situations, and thus is an appropriate lens to use for this study. This is a protocol for a realist synthesis which asks how, why and in what circumstances do Asian Cultures influence health professional trainees to seek, respond to and use feedback given in the clinical environment, if at all.

Methods and analysisAn initial search was performed to help define the scope of the review question and develop our initial program theory. The formal electronic search was carried out in February 2020 and included: CINAHL, ERIC, MEDLINE, and PsycInfo, and repeated in October 2020.

Retrieved articles were imported into Covidence for screening and data extraction, after which components of the Context - Mechanisms - Outcomes configurations will be sought to refine the initial program theory.

Ethics and DisseminationAs this study is a literature review, ethics approval is not required.

The findings will be documented in line with the RAMESES publications standards for Realist syntheses,[41] and we plan to disseminate the findings by means of a peer-reviewed journal article and conference presentation(s).

Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThe synthesis aims to identify the how and why Asian Cultures may influence feedback seeking and provision to health professional trainees, if at all.
C_LIO_LITo our knowledge, there are few studies of feedback seeking and provision to health professional trainees in Asia.
C_LIO_LIA Realist approach has the potential to help explain the complex nature of Cultures impact on feedback.
C_LIO_LIOnly studies published in the English language will be included, so transferability of our findings to non-English speaking environments may be lacking.
C_LIO_LIIn addition to formal literature database searches, we will need to conduct citation mining to locate other relevant resources.
C_LI COMPARISON OF sPLA2-IIA PERFORMANCE WITH HIGH-SENSITIVE CRP, NEUTROPHIL PERCENTAGE, PCT AND LACTATE TO IDENTIFY BACTERIAL INFECTION: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY Early bacterial infection (BI) identification in resource-limiting Emergency Departments (ED) is challenging especially in low- and middle-income counties (LMIC). Misdiagnosis predisposes to antibiotic overuse and propagates antimicrobial resistance. This study evaluates new emerging biomarkers, secretory phospholipase A2 group IIA (sPLA2-IIA), and compares with other biomarkers on their performance characteristic of BI detection in Malaysia, an LMIC. A prospective cohort study was conducted involving 151 consecutive patients admitted to the ED. A single measurement was taken upon patient arrival in ED and was analysed for serum levels of sPLA2-IIA, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), neutrophil percentage (N%), and lactate. All biomarkers performance was compared for the outcomes using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity. The performance of sPLA2-IIA (AUROC 0.93 [95% CI: 0.89-0.97]; Sn 80% [95% CI: 72-87] Sp 94% [95% CI: 81-89]) was the highest among all. It was comparable with high-sensitive CRP (AUROC 0.93 [95% CI: 0.88-0.97]; Sn 75% [95% CI: 66-83]; Sp 91 [95% CI: 77-98]) but had a higher Sn and Sp. The sPLA2-IIA was also found superior to N%, PCT, and lactate. This finding suggested sPLA2-IIA was recommended biomarkers for BI detection in LMIC. A protocol for a multicentre observational study across an integrated care system to understand the effect of living with frailty on access to video consultations Risks for digital exclusion include older age, disability, and deprivation. No literature exists examining frailty as an additional possible risk factor. Many studies have shown frailty to be a more accurate predictor of adverse outcome in healthcare than age alone. Understanding risk factors for digital exclusion may help healthcare services appropriately tailor interventions. The Healthier Together integrated care system (HTICS) in Bristol is developing video consultations for clinics. The aim of this prospective observational cross-sectional study is to identify whether living with frailty is a risk factor of digital exclusion from video consultation. Data will be collected using a structured survey including patients from three sites across the Heal secondary care services at North Bristol Trust, and then two subsequent sites will be included across HTICS. Data will be collected on known risk factors for digital exclusion, frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale, and will cover four domains for digital exclusion as defined by NHS Digital: access, skill, motivation, and confidence. Data will be presented with descriptive statistics. The association between frailty and outcomes will be analysed with a multivariable logistic regression.

Key Study Contacts

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@134f5d7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f8149forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11dbf0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7e854borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@61272f_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Study Summary

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@53a9f0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b9e76dorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@108bd12org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b500ddorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14be1d8_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Funding and Support in Kind

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d86811org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1985973org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@118ca5corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8d7839org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1cff6e1_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Role of Study Sponsor and FunderThe pilot at North Bristol Trust (NBT) is overseen by Neuromusculoskeletal (NMSK) Division governance. NBT NMSK Division takes responsibility for ensuring that the design of the study meets appropriate standards and that arrangements are in place to ensure appropriate conduct and reporting. Governance oversight for Hospital at Home was registered with NBT NMSK, and for primary care with Horfield Health Centre.

Roles and Responsibilities

Study Flow Chart

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@594232org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@904b3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@138af7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10898a3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15d2719_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Using controlled interrupted time series to estimate the population-level effects of Ontario's recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services BackgroundOntario recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services (OPS/CTS) to stem the harms of the opioid epidemic. We tested whether operating any site improved local opioid-related health service use and mortality rates.

MethodsWe used monthly counts of all opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths between January 2014 and December 2020 for our outcomes. For each public health unit (PHU) that implemented any OPS/CTS, we created a synthetic control as a weighted combination of unexposed PHU. We estimated the population-level effects of operating any site using controlled interrupted time series with segmented regression and adjusted for time varying confounders (i.e. OPS/CTS capacity, naloxone kits distributed, and persons receiving opioid agonist treatment per 100,000 population). We repeated the analysis using a multiple baseline approach to estimate province-wide effects.

ResultsBetween 2017 and 2020, nine out of 34 PHU implemented at least one OPS/CTS. ED visit (RR=0.96, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.99) and hospitalization (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98) trends declined faster among treated units. Improvements in local ED visit rate trends were observed for the majority of treated units. Hospitalization rates declined faster for London (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.95 - 0.99) and Niagara (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98); while mortality rates declined faster for Hamilton (RR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 - 0.96), Niagara (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.94 - 0.99) and Guelph (RR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.88 - 1.00).

ConclusionAlthough OPS/CTS are not sufficient to stem the harms of the opioid overdose epidemic on their own, they play a critical role in local harm reduction strategies. PENet: Continuous-Valued Pulmonary Edema Severity Prediction On Chest X-ray Using Siamese Convolutional Networks For physicians to take rapid clinical decisions for patients with congestive heart failure, the assessment of pulmonary edema severity in chest radiographs is vital. While deep learning has been promising in detecting the presence or absence, or even discrete grades of severity, of such edema, prediction of the continuous-valued severity yet remains a challenge. Here, we propose PENet, a deep learning framework to assess the continuous spectrum of pulmonary edema severity from chest X-rays. We present different modes of implementing this network, and demonstrate that our best model outperforms that of earlier work (mean area under the curve of 0.91 over 0.87, for nine comparisons), while saving training data and computation. Factors affecting first return to work following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair: A retrospective observational study in an occupational medicine clinic and single-surgeon practice BackgroundReturn to work (RTW) following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (aRCR) within New South Wales (NSW), Australia, under compensable schemes has not been reported.

AimsDetermine factors affecting RTW status and time in patients treated with aRCR under state-based compensation schemes, compared to those outside such schemes.

MethodsPatients undergoing aRCR by one surgeon with minimum 1-year follow-up were grouped into those under (CP) or outside (non-CP) workers or vehicle accident compensation schemes, matched by age and gender. RTW status and time were assessed using chi-square analysis and multivariable linear regression.

ResultsOf 1054 available patients, 90 CP patients were identified with 29 consented and matched to non-CP (N=29). A higher proportion of CP patients (17.2 vs 0%, P<0.001) never returned to work and a lower proportion resumed pre-injury duties at first RTW (3 vs 52%, P<0.01). Median time to first RTW did not differ between CP and non-CP groups (5.1 vs 4.4, P=0.86). Smoking (P=0.007) and post-injury activity level (P=0.004) were significantly associated with longer time to first RTW, whereas compensation status was not.

ConclusionsCP patients undergoing aRCR in NSW are at risk of not returning to work. For those that return, there is no significant difference compared to non-CP in time to first RTW. Particularly, patient and management factors associated with extended time to first RTW have been identified. Interventions aimed at modifiable factors such as smoking cessation and increasing preoperative activity may improve future outcomes.

What is already known about this subjectO_LIWork-related injury and disease present a significant financial burden to the Australian economy ($AUD61.8billion per annum), with shoulder conditions due to body stressing accounting for 7% of this total cost (>$AUD4.2billion)
C_LIO_LIPatients receiving compensation appear to have poorer outcomes and take longer to return to work than their non-compensated counterparts, but the degree to which this occurs is variably reported in the literature
C_LIO_LIThe effect of modifiable factors on return to work status and time remain unclear, and have not previously been reported for the Australian population under the New South Wales workers compensation scheme
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What this study addsO_LIPatients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a compensable scheme in New South Wales are at increased risk of not returning to work compared to patients presenting outside of a compensable scheme and patients in equivalent schemes internationally
C_LIO_LIPatients reporting a longer duration of symptoms and smokers are at increased risk of extended time to first return to work
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What impact this may have on practice or policyO_LIThe study has identified smoking and pre-surgery activity levels as key targets for intervention in patients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a workers compensation scheme in New South Wales
C_LIO_LIBy further investigating whether interventions designed to modify these factors are able to favourably affect patient outcomes, there is potential to return patients to their preoperative level of work sooner
C_LI Estimating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Israel using aggregated counts The vaccination roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines in Israel has been highly successful. By February 22th, approximately 47% of the population has already been administered at least one dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Efforts to estimate the true real-world effectiveness of the vaccine have been hampered by disease dynamics and social-economic discrepancies. Here, using counts of positive and hospitalized cases of vaccinated individuals, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the vaccine effectiveness. Under an assumption of no effectiveness on the first two weeks after the 1st dose, we observe very low effectiveness on the third week. After the 2nd dose, on weeks 1 and 2 we find 73-85% effectiveness in reducing positive cases, hospitalizations, and severe cases, which increase to 89-97% effectiveness 14 days after the 2nd dose. As more granular data will be available, it will be possible to extract more exact estimates; however, the emerging evidence suggests that the vaccine is highly effective. Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission 1.The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic continues to have major impacts on childrens education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to long periods of absence and classroom closures. We have developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties; the basis of our approach is a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies are considered in terms of effectiveness at supressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence. Covid-19 infections in schools in the UK in Autumn 2020 are re-examined and the model used for forecasting infection levels in autumn 2021, as the more infectious Delta-variant was emerging and school transmission thought likely to play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance of infections in the classroom population with isolation of positive cases is a more effective mitigation measure than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission in primary schools and for avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of pupils being absent from school, with only modest impact on classroom infection levels. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major beneficial impact for managing Covid-19 in school settings. Detection of COVID-19 and age-dependent dysosmia with paired crushable odorant ampules BackgroundSigns of anosmia can help detect COVID-19 infection when testing for viral positivity is not available. Inexpensive mass-produced disposable olfactory sensitivity tests suitable for worldwide use might serve not only as a screening tool for potential infection but also to identify cases at elevated risk of severe disease as anosmic COVID-19 patients have a better prognosis.

Methods and FindingsWe adopted paired crushable ampules with two concentrations of a standard test odorant (n-butanol) as standard of care in several clinics as community prevalence of COVID-19 infection waxed and waned. This was not a clinical trial; a chart review was undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics and potential utility of the test device as RT-PCR testing became routine. The risk of anosmia was greater in COVID-19 patients. Olfactory sensitivity was concentration-dependent and decreased with aging. Hyposmia was detected across a wider age range than expected from the literature, and tests can be optimized to characterize different age groups.

Conclusionsn-Butanol at 0.32 and 3.2% in crushable ampules can be used to characterize olfactory function quickly and inexpensively and thus has potential benefits in pandemic screening, epidemiology, and clinical decision-making. Correction of measurement error in a commercial multiple-breath washout device RationaleNitrogen multiple-breath washout (N2MBW) is an established technique to assess functional residual capacity (FRC) and ventilation inhomogeneity in the lung. Accurate measurement of gas concentrations is essential for the appropriate calculation of clinical outcomes.

ObjectivesWe investigated the accuracy of oxygen and carbon dioxide measurements used for the indirect calculation of nitrogen concentration in a commercial MBW device (Exhalyzer D, Eco Medics AG, Duernten, Switzerland) and its impact on FRC and lung clearance index (LCI).

MethodsHigh precision calibration gas mixtures and mass spectrometry were used to evaluate sensor output. We assessed the impact of corrected signal processing on FRC and LCI in a dataset of healthy children and children with cystic fibrosis using custom analysis software.

ResultsWe found inadequate correction for the cross sensitivity of the oxygen and carbon dioxide sensors in the Exhalyzer D device. This results in an overestimation of expired nitrogen concentration, and consequently FRC and LCI outcomes. Breath-by-breath correction of this error reduced mean (SD) FRC by 8.9 (2.2)% and LCI by 11.9 (4.0)%. It also resulted in almost complete disappearance of the tissue nitrogen signal at the end of measurements.

ConclusionsInadequate correction for cross sensitivity between the oxygen and carbon dioxide gas sensors of the Exhalyzer D device leads to an overestimation of FRC and LCI. Correction of this error is possible and could be applied by re-analysing the measurements breath-by-breath in an updated software version.

Grants, Gifts, Equipment, DrugsEco Medics AG (Duernten, Switzerland) provided a research version of their commercial software Spiroware 3.2.1 including insight on signal processing algorithms and helped with the acquisition of mass spectrometry measurements. This project was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, Grant Nr. 182719 (P. Latzin) and 168173 (K. Ramsey) Relationship Between Patient Sex and Serum Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonist Drug and Anti-Drug Antibody Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease; A Nationwide Cohort Study BackgroundAnti-drug antibodies to infliximab (ATI) and adalimumab (ATA) are associated with loss of response to tumor necrosis factor antagonist (anti-TNF) therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the relationship between patient sex and serum TNF antagonist drug and antibody concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease

MethodsA nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted by evaluating patients charts from July 2018 until September 2021. The effect of patient sex on anti-drug antibodies and serum drug concentration in patients with IBD across 7 hospitals was investigated. A subgroup analysis also investigated the effect of anti-TNF combination therapy. Geometric means were calculated, and multiple linear regression was used to estimate the adjusted ratio of geometric means (RoGM) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

ResultsIn the total study sample (n = 1093), males receiving infliximab had higher anti-drug antibody concentrations (38.3 vs. 22.3 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30-2.27, p-value <0.001) compared to females. Additionally, infliximab serum drug concentrations among males were lower compared to females (2.6 vs. 4.1 ug/ml; aRoGM = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44-0.88, p-value = 0.007). In the subgroup analysis (n = 359), male compared to female patients on combination therapy with infliximab and immunomodulators had similar anti-drug antibody concentrations (30.2 vs. 21.9 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.79-2.40, p-value = 0.254). There was no difference in the anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab.

ConclusionIn patients receiving infliximab, anti-drug antibodies were higher in males than females. Consistent with this, serum drug concentrations were lower in males than females on infliximab. There was no difference in anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab. In addition, no difference in anti-drug antibodies between males and females receiving anti-TNF combination therapy was observed. Deceased donor kidney degradomics indicates cytoskeletal proteolytic alterations impacting post-transplant function. BackgroundIn brain death, cerebral injury contributes to systemic biological dysregulation, causing significant cellular stress in donor kidneys that adversely impacts the quality of grafts. Here, we hypothesized that DBD kidneys may undergo proteolytic processes that renders grafts susceptible to post-transplant dysfunction.

Material & MethodsUsing mass spectrometry and immunoblotting analyses, we profiled degradation patterns of cytoskeletal proteins in deceased (n=55) and living (n=10) donor kidneys.

ResultsWe found that in DBD kidneys, key podocyte cytoskeletal proteins had been proteolytically cleaved. Generated degradation profiles were not associated to donor related demographic and clinical factors but were associated to suboptimal post-transplant function. Strikingly, -actinin -4 and Talin-1 degradation profiles were not observed in circulatory-death or living-donor kidneys. As Talin-1 is a specific proteolytic target of Calpain-1, we investigated a potential trigger of Calpain activation and Talin-1 degradation using ex-vivo precision-cut human kidney slices and in-vitro immortalised human podocytes. Notably, we found that Transforming-Growth Factor-{beta} (TGF-{beta}) activated Calpain-1 and proteolytically cleaved Talin-1 to generate distinct peptide fragments. These peptide fragments were of similar size and matched the degradation patterns observed in DBD kidneys. Talin-1 degradation was prevented in vitro by Calpain-1 inhibition.

ConclusionsHere, we provide initial evidence that DBD kidneys are susceptible to cytoskeletal protein degradation that impacts posttransplant kidney function. Subsequent studies should aim to further investigate the link between brain death and activation of proteolytic pathways exploring new therapeutic opportunities. Quantifying phenotype and genotype distributions in single muscle fibres from patients carrying the pathogenic mtDNA variant m.3243A>G Cells are thought to tolerate the presence of heteroplasmic pathogenic mitochondrial (mt)DNA variants, up to a threshold proportion with little or no functional consequence, only developing a detectable oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) defect once this threshold is exceeded. We hypothesised that, given the highly variable phenotypic presentation and severity of disease caused by the most common heteroplasmic pathogenic mtDNA variant m.3243A>G, this threshold may vary between patients. To estimate this threshold we examined the relationship between m.3243A>G level and deficiency of respiratory complexes I and IV in hundreds of single skeletal muscle fibres captured by laser microdissection from 17 patients carrying the m.3243A>G variant. We confirmed that tissue homogenate m.3243A>G level is a poor surrogate for the broad and complex distributions of m.3243A>G level in single cells from individual patients. We used unsupervised machine learning to characterise the biochemical status of muscle fibres, based on immunocytochemical measurements and estimate that the m.3243A>G threshold proportion above which myofibres develop a respiratory complex defect is 82.8% (IQR:2.7%). We do not find any significant difference in threshold between individuals, however we demonstrate that the pattern of respiratory complex defect and the distribution of m.3243A>G varies considerably between patients. This observation suggests that the pathogenesis of m.3243A>G is more diverse than previously thought. Effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines in preventing infection in dental practitioners: results of a cross-sectional questionnaire based survey India started its vaccination program at the beginning of 2021, the main beneficiaries being health workers and frontline workers including police, paramilitary forces, sanitation workers, and disaster management volunteers in the first phase. By the time, the second wave of Covid-19 impacted India, approximately 14 million healthcare and frontline workers, including dentists had been vaccinated.

AimTo study the effectiveness of vaccination on a subset of high-risk healthcare workers i.e. dentists in preventing Covid-19 during the second wave of the pandemic.

Study designA questionnaire based pan-India online survey was carried out to record the Covid-related experiences of dentists prior to and after vaccination.

ResultThe sample size for this survey was 4493 respondents from across India. During the second wave, 9.18% (n=364) respondents became positive in spite of the vaccine, while 14.69%(n=78) became positive in the unvaccinated group. A chi-square test of independence was performed to examine the relation between vaccination and the Covid positivity rate in all age groups. The relation between these variables was highly significant, [X2 (1, N = 4493) = 15.9809, p=.000064].

ConclusionOur pan-India online survey inferred that vaccination has a definitive role to play in reducing the positivity rate amongst dentists during the second wave of the pandemic across all age groups. A Cross-Sectional Examination of Conflict-of-Interest Disclosures of Physician-Authors Publishing in High-Impact US Medical Journals ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of self-reported financial conflict-of-interest (COI) disclosures in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) within the requisite disclosure period prior to article submission.

DesignCross-sectional investigation.

Data SourcesOriginal clinical-trial research articles published in NEJM (n = 206) or JAMA (n = 188) from January 1 to December 31, 2017; self-reported COI disclosure forms submitted to NEJM or JAMA with the authors published articles; Open Payments website (from database inception; latest search: August 2019).

Main outcome measuresFinancial data reported to Open Payments from 2014 to 2016 (time period that included all subjects requisite disclosure windows) were compared to self-reported disclosure forms submitted to the journals. Payments were defined as those not associated with a research study or formal research funding. Payment types were categorized as "disclosed," "undisclosed," "indeterminate," or "unrelated."

ResultsThirty-one articles from NEJM and 31 articles from JAMA met inclusion criteria. The physician-authors (n = 118) received a combined total of $7.48 million. Of the 106 authors (89.8%) who received payments, 86 (81.1%) received undisclosed payments. The top 23 most highly compensated received $6.32 million, of which $3.00 million (47.6%) was undisclosed. Disclosure rates were the equivalent between the top 23 and the entire sample.

ConclusionsHigh payment amounts, as well as high proportions of undisclosed financial compensation, regardless of amount received, comprised potential COIs for two influential US medical journals. Further research is needed to explain why such high proportions of general payments were undisclosed and whether journals that rely on self-reported COI disclosure need to reconsider their policies. Decreased Diastolic Hydraulic Forces Incrementally Associate With Survival Beyond Conventional Measures of Diastolic Dysfunction AIMSDecreased hydraulic forces during diastole contribute to reduced left ventricular (LV) filling and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. However, their association with diastolic function and patient outcomes are unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the association between diastolic hydraulic forces, estimated by echocardiography as the atrioventricular area difference (AVAD), and both diastolic function and survival.

METHODS AND RESULTSPatients (n=11,734, median [interquartile range] 3.9 [2.4-5.0] years follow-up, 1,213 events) were selected from the National Echo Database Australia based on the presence of relevant transthoracic echocardiographic measures, LV ejection fraction (LVEF) [&ge;]50%, heart rate 50-100 beats/minute, the absence of moderate or severe valvular disease, and no prior cardiac surgery. AVAD was calculated as the cross-sectional area difference between the LV and left atrium. LV diastolic dysfunction was graded according to 2016 guidelines. AVAD was weakly associated with E/e, left atrial volume index, and LVEF (multivariable global R2=0.15, p<0.001), and not associated with e and peak tricuspid regurgitation velocity. Decreased AVAD was independently associated with poorer survival, and demonstrated improved model discrimination after adjustment for diastolic function grading (C-statistic [95% confidence interval] 0.645 [0.629-0.662] vs 0.607 [0.592-0.623], p<0.001) and E/e (0.639 [0.623-0.655] vs 0.621 [0.604-0.637], p<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONDecreased hydraulic forces, estimated by AVAD, are weakly associated with diastolic dysfunction and demonstrate an incremental prognostic association with survival beyond conventional measures used to grade diastolic dysfunction.