Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Inherent latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with smaller and intrinsically noisier case incidence across periods of subcritical spread, mean that resurgence cannot be reliably detected without significant delays of the order of the generation time of the disease, even when case reporting is perfect. In contrast, epidemic suppression (where R falls from supercritical to subcritical values) may be ascertained 5-10 times faster due to the naturally larger incidence at which control actions are generally applied. We prove that these innate limits on detecting resurgence only worsen when spatial or demographic heterogeneities are incorporated. Consequently, we argue that resurgence is more effectively handled proactively, potentially at the expense of false alarms. Timely responses to recrudescent infections or emerging variants of concern are more likely to be possible when policy is informed by a greater quality and diversity of surveillance data than by further optimisation of the statistical models used to process routine outbreak data.

Author summaryThe timely detection of epidemic resurgence (i.e., upcoming waves of infected cases) is crucial for informing public health policy, providing valuable signals for implementing interventions and identifying emerging pathogenic variants or important population-level behavioural shifts. Increases in epidemic transmissibility, parametrised by the time-varying reproduction number, R, commonly signify resurgence. While many studies have improved computational methods for inferring R from case data, to enhance real-time resurgence detection, few have examined what limits, if any, fundamentally restrict our ability to perform this inference. We apply optimal Bayesian detection algorithms and sensitivity tests and discover that resurgent (upward) R-changes are intrinsically more difficult to detect than equivalent downward changes indicating control. This asymmetry derives from the often lower and stochastically noisier case numbers that associate with resurgence, and induces detection delays on the order of the disease generation time. We prove these delays only worsen if spatial or demographic differences in transmissibility are modelled. As these fundamental limits exist even if case data are perfect, we conclude that designing integrated surveillance systems that fuse potentially timelier data sources (e.g., wastewater) may be more important than improving R-estimation methodology and deduce that there may be merit (subject to false alarm costs) in conservative resurgence response initiatives.
Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5 year-old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods. We then modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 19 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2-5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC, 37,000 (range 16,000-84,000) malaria-associated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 18-29% of all SMA episodes in higher transmission settings.
Signals of significantly increased vaccine breakthrough, decreased hospitalization rates, and less severe disease in patients with COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Houston, Texas Genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to dramatically alter the landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recently described variant of concern designated Omicron (B.1.1.529) has rapidly spread worldwide and is now responsible for the majority of COVID-19 cases in many countries. Because Omicron was recognized very recently, many knowledge gaps exist about its epidemiology and clinical severity and disease course. A comprehensive genome sequencing study of SARS-CoV-2 in the Houston Methodist healthcare system identified 862 symptomatic patients with infections caused by Omicron from late November 2021 through December 18, 2021. Omicron very rapidly increased in only three weeks to cause 90% of all new COVID-19 cases. Compared to patients infected with either Alpha or Delta variants in our healthcare system, Omicron patients were significantly younger, had significantly increased vaccine breakthrough rates, and were significantly less likely to be hospitalized. Omicron patients required less intense respiratory support and had a shorter length of hospital stay, consistent with decreased disease severity. Although the number of Omicron patients we studied is relatively small, in the aggregate the data document the unusually rapid spread and increased occurrence of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant in metropolitan Houston, and provide information about disease character. The Addiction Risk Factor: A Unitary Genetic Vulnerability Characterizes Substance Use Disorders and Their Associations with Common Correlates Substance use disorders commonly co-occur with one another and with other psychiatric disorders. They share common features including high impulsivity, negative affect, and lower executive function. We tested whether a common genetic factor undergirds liability to problematic alcohol use (PAU), problematic tobacco use (PTU), cannabis use disorder (CUD), and opioid use disorder (OUD) by applying genomic structural equation modelling to genome-wide association study summary statistics for individuals of European ancestry (Total N = 1,019,521; substance specific Ns range: 82,707-435,563), while adjusting for the genetics of substance use (Ns = 184,765-632,802). We also tested whether shared liability across SUDs is associated with behavioral constructs (risk taking, executive function, neuroticism; Ns = 328,339-427,037) and non-substance use psychopathology (psychotic, compulsive, and early neurodevelopmental disorders). Shared genetic liability to PAU, PTU, CUD, and OUD was characterized by a unidimensional addiction risk factor (termed The Addiction-Risk-Factor, independent of substance use. OUD and CUD demonstrated the largest loadings, while problematic tobacco use showed the lowest loading. The Addiction-Risk-Factor was associated with risk taking, neuroticism, executive function, and non-substance psychopathology, but retained specific variance before and after accounting for genetics of substance use. Thus, a common genetic factor partly explains susceptibility for alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and opioid use disorder. The Addiction-Risk-Factor has a unique genetic architecture that is not shared with normative substance use or non-substance psychopathology, suggesting that addiction is not the linear combination of substance use and psychopathology. Treatment interruption is a risk factor for sickness presenteeism: a large-scale cross-sectional study during the COVID-19 pandemic ObjectivesThis study examined the relationship between interruption to routine medical care during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and sickness presenteeism among workers in Japan.

MethodsA cross-sectional study using data obtained from an internet monitor questionnaire was conducted. Interruption to medical care was defined based on the response "I have not been able to go to the hospital or receive treatment as scheduled." The fraction of sickness presenteeism days in the past 30 days was employed as the primary outcome. A fractional logit model was used for analysis to treat bounded data.

ResultsOf the 27,036 participants, 17,526 (65%) were workers who did not require routine medical care, 8,451 (31%) were using medical care as scheduled, and 1,059 (4%) experienced interrupted medical care. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of sickness presenteeism was significantly higher among workers who experienced interrupted medical care (3.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.04-3.89) than those who did not require routine medical care. In terms of symptoms, the highest aOR was observed among workers with mental health symptoms (aOR: 5.59, 95%CI: 5.04-6.20).

ConclusionsThis study suggests the importance of continuing necessary treatment during a pandemic to prevent presenteeism. Factors affecting first return to work following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair: A retrospective observational study in an occupational medicine clinic and single-surgeon practice BackgroundReturn to work (RTW) following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (aRCR) within New South Wales (NSW), Australia, under compensable schemes has not been reported.

AimsDetermine factors affecting RTW status and time in patients treated with aRCR under state-based compensation schemes, compared to those outside such schemes.

MethodsPatients undergoing aRCR by one surgeon with minimum 1-year follow-up were grouped into those under (CP) or outside (non-CP) workers or vehicle accident compensation schemes, matched by age and gender. RTW status and time were assessed using chi-square analysis and multivariable linear regression.

ResultsOf 1054 available patients, 90 CP patients were identified with 29 consented and matched to non-CP (N=29). A higher proportion of CP patients (17.2 vs 0%, P<0.001) never returned to work and a lower proportion resumed pre-injury duties at first RTW (3 vs 52%, P<0.01). Median time to first RTW did not differ between CP and non-CP groups (5.1 vs 4.4, P=0.86). Smoking (P=0.007) and post-injury activity level (P=0.004) were significantly associated with longer time to first RTW, whereas compensation status was not.

ConclusionsCP patients undergoing aRCR in NSW are at risk of not returning to work. For those that return, there is no significant difference compared to non-CP in time to first RTW. Particularly, patient and management factors associated with extended time to first RTW have been identified. Interventions aimed at modifiable factors such as smoking cessation and increasing preoperative activity may improve future outcomes.

What is already known about this subjectO_LIWork-related injury and disease present a significant financial burden to the Australian economy ($AUD61.8billion per annum), with shoulder conditions due to body stressing accounting for 7% of this total cost (>$AUD4.2billion)
C_LIO_LIPatients receiving compensation appear to have poorer outcomes and take longer to return to work than their non-compensated counterparts, but the degree to which this occurs is variably reported in the literature
C_LIO_LIThe effect of modifiable factors on return to work status and time remain unclear, and have not previously been reported for the Australian population under the New South Wales workers compensation scheme
C_LI

What this study addsO_LIPatients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a compensable scheme in New South Wales are at increased risk of not returning to work compared to patients presenting outside of a compensable scheme and patients in equivalent schemes internationally
C_LIO_LIPatients reporting a longer duration of symptoms and smokers are at increased risk of extended time to first return to work
C_LI

What impact this may have on practice or policyO_LIThe study has identified smoking and pre-surgery activity levels as key targets for intervention in patients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a workers compensation scheme in New South Wales
C_LIO_LIBy further investigating whether interventions designed to modify these factors are able to favourably affect patient outcomes, there is potential to return patients to their preoperative level of work sooner
C_LI Psychological factors associated with instrumental activities of daily living disability in older adults with knee osteoarthritis PurposeThe population of older adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA)-related disabilities is increasing globally. This study aimed to investigate the psychological factors associated with instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability in older adults with knee OA.

Materials and MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted on 179 patients with knee OA aged [&ge;] 65 years. The six-item short form of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS-6), the four-item short form of the Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ-4), and the fifteen-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) were used to assess psychological factors. IADL status was assessed using eight activity items. Participants were divided into IADL-disabled and non-disabled groups. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed with the IADL disability status as the dependent variable. The PCS-6, PSEQ-4, and GDS-15 tools were included as independent variables in the logistic regression model. Demographics, motor functions, and pain intensity were also included as confounders.

ResultsOf the total participants, 88 (49.1%) showed disability in conducting IADL. PSEQ-4 (odds ratio =0.90, 95%; confidence interval=0.82-0.99, p=0.02) was a significant independent variable among all psychological factors.

ConclusionOur study showed the importance of assessing self-efficacy using the PSEQ-4 in relation to IADL disability in older adults with knee OA. Redeployment and training of healthcare professionals to Intensive Care during COVID-19: a systematic review BackgroundA rapid influx of patients to intensive care and infection control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic required the rapid development of innovative redeployment and training strategies.

MethodsWe conducted a systematic search of 9 databases including key terms related to intensive care AND training AND redeployment AND healthcare workers. Analysis consisted of a narrative synthesis of quantitative study outputs, and a framework-based thematic analysis of qualitative study outputs and grey literature. These results were then combined applying an interpretative synthesis.

ResultsTwenty papers were analysed. These took place primarily in the UK (N=8, 40%) and USA (N=5, 25%). Themes included in the results are Redeployment: Implementation strategies and learnings; Redeployed staff experience and strategies to address their needs; Redeployed staff learning needs; Training formats offered and training evaluations; and Future redeployment and training concerns. Some of the redeployment implementation and training strategies documented in this review are: Skills-based redeployment, buddy support systems, and agreeing on locally-specific principles, rather than strict procedures.

ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic presented unique challenges to deliver training promptly while following infection control recommendations and develop flexible redeployment strategies. This study synthesises original approaches to tackle these challenges which are relevant to inform the development of targeted and adaptative training and redeployment plans. Prevalence of vitamin D is not associated with the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. A critical update of the existing evidence. BackgroundCOVID-19 has emerged as a global pandemic, affecting nearly 104 million people worldwide as of February 4th 2021. In previous published studies, the association between the mean Vit D status of each country and COVID-19 infection rate, and mortality among the adult population in European countries was examined. The aim of this study was to re-examine the relationship between the Vit D status of each country and COVID-19 infection, recovery, and mortality using updated data and a different methodological approach.

MethodsInformation only form the last decade on Vit D concentration/deficiency for each country was retrieved through literature search on PubMed(R) database. As of February, 4th 2021, COVID-19 infections and mortalities per one million population as well as total recoveries were extracted from the Worldometer website. The association between vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 infection, recovery, and mortality were explored using correlation coefficients and scatterplots.

FindingsThe prevalence of vitamin D deficiency among European countries ranged from 6.0 (Finland) to 75.5% (Turkey), with several countries facing more than 50% of vitamin D deficiency among their population. Non-significant correlations were observed between the number of COVID-19 infections (r=0.190; p=0.374), recoveries (rs=0.317, p=0.131), and mortalities (r=0.129; p=0.549) per one million population, with the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

InterpretationPrevalence of vitamin D deficiency was not significantly associated with either number of infections, recoveries or mortality rate of COVID-19 among European countries. Thus, it is an important parameter to be considered when implementing preventive measures to face COVID-19.

FundingNone A Randomised Trial of a Wearable UV dosimeter for Skin Cancer Prevention BackgroundNon-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most prevalent cancer in the United States, affecting 5 million people and costing $8.1 billion per year. Despite well-defined guidelines on ultraviolet radiation (UVR) avoidance, it remains difficult for people to assess their individual exposure, as UVR is invisible and the onset of symptoms due to UVR damage are delayed.

MethodsIn a prospective, randomized-controlled trial, 97 patients with a history of actinic keratoses were enrolled from March 2018 to July 2018 and followed over 6 months. 50 patients were given a wearable device that measured UV exposure and a smartphone application that provided both real-time and cumulative UV exposure information, and 47 patients were provided with UV protection counseling by a dermatologist.

ResultsWe observed a significant decrease in the incidence rate of NMSC in the intervention group compared to the control group over 3 months (p = 0.02). We did not observe a significant decrease in the incidence rate of actinic keratoses (AK) in the intervention group compared to the control group. The observed clinical benefit was not accompanied by psychological side effects such as anxiety and depression.

ConclusionsThis study suggests that providing real-time UV exposure data using a wearable UV dosimeter is a safe and effective behavioral change strategy to prevent NMSC. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute, contract HHSN261201700005C; ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT03315286.) Chemosensory dysfunctions induced by COVID-19 can persist up to 7 months: A study of over 700 healthcare workers Several studies have revealed either self-reported chemosensory alterations in large groups or objective quantified chemosensory impairments in smaller populations of patients diagnosed with COVID-19. However, due to the great variability in published results regarding COVID-19-induced chemosensory impairments and their follow-up, prognosis for chemosensory functions in patients with such complaints remains unclear. Our objective is to describe the various chemosensory alterations associated with COVID-19 and their prevalence and evolution after infection. A cross-sectional study of 704 healthcare workers with a RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 28/2/2020 and 14/6/2020 was conducted 3 to 7 months after onset of symptoms. Data were collected with an online questionnaire. Outcomes included differences in reported chemosensory self-assessment of olfactory, gustatory, and trigeminal functions across time points and Chemosensory Perception Test scores from an easy-to-use at-home self-administered chemosensory test. Among the 704 participants, 593 (84.2%) were women, the mean (SD) age was 42 (12) years, and the questionnaire was answered on average 4.8 (0.8) months after COVID-19. During COVID-19, a decrease in olfactory, gustatory, and trigeminal sensitivities were reported by 81.3%, 81.5% and 48.0% respectively. Three to seven months later, reduced sensitivity was still reported by 52.0%, 41.9% and 23.3% respectively. Chemosensory Perception Test scores indicate that 19.5% of participants had objective olfactory impairment. These data suggest a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases have persistent chemosensory impairments at 3 to 7 months after their infection but the majority of those who had completely lost their olfactory, gustatory, and trigeminal sensitivity have improved. Impact of tozinameran (BNT162b2) mRNA vaccine on kidney transplant and chronic dialysis patients: 3-5 months followup BackgroundDetermining the humoral immunogenicity of tozinameran (BNT162b2) vaccine in patients requiring chronic renal replacement therapy, and its impact on COVID-19 morbidity several months after vaccination, will guide risk assessment and subsequent changes in vaccination policy.

MethodsIn a prospective post-vaccination cohort study with up to 5 months follow-up we studied outpatient dialysis and kidney transplant patients and respective healthcare teams. Outcomes were anti S1/S2 antibody response to vaccine or infection and infection rate during followup.

Results175 dialysis patients (40% women, 65{+/-}15 years), 252 kidney transplant patients (33% women, 54{+/-}14 years) and 71 controls (65% women, 44{+/-}14 years) were followed. Three months or longer after vaccination we detected anti S1/S2 IgG antibodies in 80% of dialysis patients, 44% of transplant recipients and 100% of controls, whereas respective rates after infection were 94%, 75% and 100%. Predictors of non-response were older age, diabetes, history of cancer, lower lymphocyte count and lower vitamin-D levels. Factors associated with lower titers in dialysis patients were modality (hemodialysis vs peritoneal) and high serum ferritin levels. In transplant patients, hypertension and higher calcineurin or mTOR inhibitor drug levels were linked with diminished antibody response. Vaccination associated with fewer subsequent infections (HR=0.23, p<0.05). Moreover, higher antibody titers associated with fewer events, HR 0.41 for each unit increased in log10titer (p<0.05).

ConclusionsDialysis patients, and more so kidney transplant recipients, mounted reduced antibody response to COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, and lesser humoral response associated with more infections. Measures to identify and protect non-responsive patients are urgently required.

SignificanceReports on the humoral immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in patients with end stage renal disease are scarce, and association with subsequent COVID-19 morbidity is unknown. In this cohort study that included 175 patients treated with dialysis, 252 kidney transplant recipients and 71 control volunteers, the proportion achieving an antibody response was time- and group-dependent, reaching 80%, 44% and 100% at 3 months post prime inoculation. Personal history of vaccination, positive antibody responses and antibody titers associated with significantly lower risk of COVID-19 infection. Thus, in patients with end stage renal disease, SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing may be warranted after vaccination, to identify non-responders at higher risk for disease. The Acute Treatment of Migraine with Low-Dose Naltrexone/Acetaminophen Combinations and Each Component: Findings of a Small, Randomized, Double-Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial We tested two low-dose naltrexone and acetaminophen combinations and each component in the acute treatment of migraine. The patients use a single-dose of the study medication for a moderate or severe pain intensity migraine attack. Patients were adults with migraine with or without aura experiencing 2 to 20 (average 6.4) monthly migraine days. The co-primary endpoints were pain-freedom and absence of prospectively-identified most bothersome migraine-associated symptom 2 hours after dosing. We randomized 92 patients; 72 completed the study (mean age, 43 years; 75% women). Pain-freedom at 2 hours was 10.2% higher than placebo with naltrexone 2.25 mg/acetaminophen 325 mg, 10.9% with naltrexone 3.25 mg/acetaminophen 325 mg, 17.3% with naltrexone 2.25 mg, and 31.3% with acetaminophen 325 mg. The treatment groups migraine burden at baseline was unbalanced due to randomized patients uneven study completion. The acetaminophen group had the lowest migraine burden, giving its results lower credibility.

Saliently, Low-dose naltrexone alone (n=19) had a 17.3% higher response rate for headache pain-freedom at 2 hours than placebo (n=17). The naltrexone and the placebo groups were the largest and had a balanced disease burden, implying higher credibility to the naltrexone group results. We found low-dose naltrexone and acetaminophen combination, low-dose naltrexone, and acetaminophen had higher response rates than placebo in treating headache pain. The most commonly reported adverse events were sedation, nausea, and dizziness. We postulate that naltrexones toll-like receptor (TLR4) antagonism properties prevent pro-inflammatory cytokines production in the trigeminal ganglion averting "overactive nerves" (laymans term) and migraine. Although this trial used low-dose naltrexone (defined as 1 - 5 mg/day), future phase 3 studies will test a range of naltrexone and acetaminophen combination doses. Intrahost evolution of the HIV-2 capsid correlates with progression to AIDS BackgroundHIV-2 infection will progress to AIDS in most patients without treatment, albeit at approximately half the rate of HIV-1 infection. HIV-2 p26 amino acid variations are associated with lower viral loads and enhanced processing of T cell epitopes, which may lead to protective Gag-specific CTL responses common in slower disease progressors. Lower virus evolutionary rates, and positive selection on conserved residues in HIV-2 env have been associated with slower progression to AIDS. We therefore aimed to determine if intrahost evolution of HIV-2 p26 is associated with disease progression.

MethodsTwelve treatment-naive, HIV-2 mono-infected participants from the Guinea-Bissau Police cohort with longitudinal CD4+ T cell data and clinical follow-up were included in the analysis. CD4% change over time was analysed via linear regression models to stratify participants into relative faster and slower disease progressor groups. Gag amplicons of 735 nucleotides which spanned the p26 region were amplified by PCR and sequenced. We analysed p26 sequence diversity evolution, measured site-specific selection pressures and evolutionary rates, and determined if these evolutionary parameters were associated with progression status. Amino acid polymorphisms were mapped to existing p26 protein structures.

ResultsIn total, 369 heterochronous HIV-2 p26 sequences from 12 male patients with a median age of 30 (IQR: 28-37) years at enrolment were analysed. Faster progressors had lower CD4% and faster CD4% decline rates. Median pairwise sequence diversity was higher in faster progressors (5.7x10-3 versus 1.4x10-3 base substitutions per site, P<0.001). p26 evolved under negative selection in both groups (dN/dS=0.12). Virus evolutionary rates were higher in faster than slower progressors - synonymous rates: 4.6x10-3 vs. 2.3x10-3; and nonsynonymous rates: 6.9x10-4 vs. 2.7x10-4 substitutions/site/year, respectively. Virus evolutionary rates correlated negatively with CD4% change rates ({rho} = -0.8, P=0.02), but not CD4% level. However, Bayes factor (BF) testing indicated that the association between evolutionary rates and CD4% kinetics was supported by weak evidence (BF=0.5). The signature amino acid at p26 positions 6, 12 and 119 differed between faster (6A, 12I, 119A) and slower (6G, 12V, 119P) progressors. These amino acid positions clustered near to the TRIM5/p26 hexamer interface surface.

ConclusionsFaster p26 evolutionary rates were associated with faster progression to AIDS and were mostly driven by synonymous substitutions. Nonsynonymous evolutionary rates were an order of magnitude lower than synonymous rates, with limited amino acid sequence evolution over time within hosts. These results indicate the HIV-2 p26 may be an attractive vaccine or therapeutic target. A protocol for a multicentre observational study across an integrated care system to understand the effect of living with frailty on access to video consultations Risks for digital exclusion include older age, disability, and deprivation. No literature exists examining frailty as an additional possible risk factor. Many studies have shown frailty to be a more accurate predictor of adverse outcome in healthcare than age alone. Understanding risk factors for digital exclusion may help healthcare services appropriately tailor interventions. The Healthier Together integrated care system (HTICS) in Bristol is developing video consultations for clinics. The aim of this prospective observational cross-sectional study is to identify whether living with frailty is a risk factor of digital exclusion from video consultation. Data will be collected using a structured survey including patients from three sites across the Heal secondary care services at North Bristol Trust, and then two subsequent sites will be included across HTICS. Data will be collected on known risk factors for digital exclusion, frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale, and will cover four domains for digital exclusion as defined by NHS Digital: access, skill, motivation, and confidence. Data will be presented with descriptive statistics. The association between frailty and outcomes will be analysed with a multivariable logistic regression.

Key Study Contacts

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@134f5d7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f8149forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11dbf0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7e854borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@61272f_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Study Summary

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@53a9f0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b9e76dorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@108bd12org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b500ddorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14be1d8_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Funding and Support in Kind

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d86811org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1985973org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@118ca5corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8d7839org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1cff6e1_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Role of Study Sponsor and FunderThe pilot at North Bristol Trust (NBT) is overseen by Neuromusculoskeletal (NMSK) Division governance. NBT NMSK Division takes responsibility for ensuring that the design of the study meets appropriate standards and that arrangements are in place to ensure appropriate conduct and reporting. Governance oversight for Hospital at Home was registered with NBT NMSK, and for primary care with Horfield Health Centre.

Roles and Responsibilities

Study Flow Chart

O_TBL View this table:
org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@594232org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@904b3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@138af7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10898a3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15d2719_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_TBL C_TBL Relationship Between Patient Sex and Serum Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonist Drug and Anti-Drug Antibody Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease; A Nationwide Cohort Study BackgroundAnti-drug antibodies to infliximab (ATI) and adalimumab (ATA) are associated with loss of response to tumor necrosis factor antagonist (anti-TNF) therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the relationship between patient sex and serum TNF antagonist drug and antibody concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease

MethodsA nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted by evaluating patients charts from July 2018 until September 2021. The effect of patient sex on anti-drug antibodies and serum drug concentration in patients with IBD across 7 hospitals was investigated. A subgroup analysis also investigated the effect of anti-TNF combination therapy. Geometric means were calculated, and multiple linear regression was used to estimate the adjusted ratio of geometric means (RoGM) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

ResultsIn the total study sample (n = 1093), males receiving infliximab had higher anti-drug antibody concentrations (38.3 vs. 22.3 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30-2.27, p-value <0.001) compared to females. Additionally, infliximab serum drug concentrations among males were lower compared to females (2.6 vs. 4.1 ug/ml; aRoGM = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44-0.88, p-value = 0.007). In the subgroup analysis (n = 359), male compared to female patients on combination therapy with infliximab and immunomodulators had similar anti-drug antibody concentrations (30.2 vs. 21.9 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.79-2.40, p-value = 0.254). There was no difference in the anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab.

ConclusionIn patients receiving infliximab, anti-drug antibodies were higher in males than females. Consistent with this, serum drug concentrations were lower in males than females on infliximab. There was no difference in anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab. In addition, no difference in anti-drug antibodies between males and females receiving anti-TNF combination therapy was observed. "What do you mean I can't have a doctor? This is Canada!" - A Qualitative Study of the Myriad Consequences for Unattached Patients Awaiting Primary Care Attachment BackgroundPatient access to primary healthcare (PHC) is the foundation of a strong healthcare system and healthy populations. Attachment to a regular PHC provider, a key to healthcare access, has seen a decline in some jurisdictions. This study explored the consequences of unattachment from a patient perspective, an under-studied phenomenon to date.

MethodsA realist-informed qualitative study was conducted with unattached patients in Nova Scotia, Canada. Semi-structured interviews with nine participants were conducted and transcribed for analysis. The framework method was used to carry out analysis, which was guided by Donabedians model of assessing healthcare access and quality.

ResultsFive key findings were noted in this study: 1) Participants experienced a range of consequences from not having a regular PHC provider. Participants used creative strategies to 2) attempt to gain attachment to a regular PHC provider, and, to 3) address their health needs in the absence of a regular PHC provider. 4) Participants experienced negative feelings about themselves and the healthcare system, and 5) stress related to the consequences and added work of being unattached and lost care.

ConclusionsUnattached patients experienced a burden of care related to lost care and managing their own health and related information, due to the download of medical record management and system navigation to them. These findings may underestimate the consequences for further at-risk populations who would not have been included in our recruitment. This may result in poorer health outcomes, which could be mitigated by interventions at the structural level, such as enhanced centralized waitlists to promote attachment. Such waitlists may benefit from a triage approach to appropriately attach patients based on need. Precision Diagnostic Approach to Predict 5-Year Risk for Microvascular Complications in Type 1 Diabetes BackgroundIndividuals with long standing diabetes duration can experience damage to small microvascular blood vessels leading to diabetes complications (DCs) and increased mortality. Precision diagnostic tailors a diagnosis to an individual by using biomedical information. Blood small molecule profiling coupled with machine learning (ML) can facilitate the goals of precision diagnostics, including earlier diagnosis and individualized risk scoring.

MethodsUsing data in a cohort of 537 adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) we predicted five-year progression to DCs. Prediction models were computed first with clinical risk factors at baseline and then with clinical risk factors and blood-derived molecular data at baseline. Progression of diabetic kidney disease and diabetic retinopathy were predicted in two complication-specific models.

FindingsThe model predicts the progression to diabetic kidney disease with accuracy: 0.96{+/-}0.25 and 0.96{+/-}0.06 area under curve, AUC, with clinical measurements and with small molecule predictors respectively and highlighted main predictors to be albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, retinopathy status at baseline, sugar derivatives and ketones. For diabetic retinopathy, AUC 0.75{+/-}0.14 and 0.79{+/-}0.16 with clinical measurements and with small molecule predictors respectively and highlighted key predictors, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate and retinopathy status at baseline. Individual risk scores were built to visualize results.

InterpretationWith further validation ML tools could facilitate the implementation of precision diagnosis in the clinic. It is envisaged that patients could be screened for complications, before these occur, thus preserving healthy life-years for persons with diabetes.

FundingThis study has been financially supported by Novo Nordisk Foundation grant NNF14OC0013659.

Research in context

Evidence before this studyMicrovascular diabetes complications (DCs), such as diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and diabetic retinopathy (DR), lead to increased mortality, blindness, kidney failure and overall decreased quality of life in individuals with diabetes.

Added value of this studyWe have developed four algorithms based on traditional risk factors alone and risk factors with metabolomic and lipidomic data. Two accurately predicted the future progression in individuals with type 1 diabetes. The top predictors chosen by the algorithm were hemoglobin A1c, albuminuria and retinopathy status at baseline for diabetic retinopathy. The most promising models predicted future diabetic kidney disease in which albuminuria, eGFR, retinopathy status at baseline were complemented with a number of ketones and sugar derivatives.

Implications of all the available evidenceWith further validation in several cohorts, the prediction models presented here have the potential for early diagnosis of CKD in persons with diabetes, thus enabling appropriate decisions on the available therapies. It is envisaged that these algorithms will be trialed and support clinicians with precision diagnosis and treatments. Ultra-rare and common genetic variant analysis converge to implicate negative selection and neuronal processes in the aetiology of schizophrenia Both common and rare genetic variants (minor allele frequency > 1% and < 0.1% respectively) have been implicated in the aetiology of schizophrenia. In this study, we integrate single-cell gene expression data with publicly available Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) and exome sequenced data in order to investigate in parallel, the enrichment of common and (ultra-)rare variants related to schizophrenia in several functionally relevant gene-sets. Four types of gene-sets were constructed 1) protein-truncating variant (PTV)-intolerant (PI) genes 2) genes expressed in brain cell types and neurons ascertained from mouse and human brain tissue 3) genes defined by synaptic function and location and 4) intersection genes, i.e., PI genes that are expressed in the human and mouse brain cell gene-sets. We show that common as well as ultra-rare schizophrenia-associated variants are overrepresented in PI genes, in excitatory neurons from the prefrontal cortex and hippocampus, medium spiny neurons, and genes enriched for synaptic processes. We also observed stronger enrichment in the intersection genes. Our findings suggest that across the allele frequency spectrum, genes and genetic variants likely to be under stringent selection, and those expressed in particular brain cell types, are involved in the same biological pathways influencing the risk for schizophrenia. Subpopulation-specific Machine Learning Prognosis for Underrepresented Patients with Double Prioritized Bias Correction Many clinical datasets are intrinsically imbalanced, dominated by overwhelming majority groups. Off-the-shelf machine learning models that optimize the prognosis of majority patient types (e.g., healthy class) may cause substantial errors on the minority prediction class (e.g., disease class) and demographic subgroups (e.g., Black or young patients). For example, our work found that missed death cases are 3.14 times higher than missed survival cases in a mortality prediction model. In the typical one-machine-learning-model-fits-all paradigm, racial and age disparities are likely to exist, but unreported. What makes it worse is the deceptive nature of widely used whole-population metrics, such as AUC-ROC. We show that some metrics fail to reflect serious prediction deficiencies. To mitigate representational biases, we design a double prioritized (DP) bias correction technique. Our method trains customized models for specific ethnicity or age groups, a substantial departure from the one-model-predicts-all convention. We report our findings on four prognosis tasks over two imbalanced clinical datasets. DP reduces relative disparities among race and age groups, 5.6% to 86.8% better than the 8 existing sampling solutions being compared, in terms of the minority class' recall. The effects of modifiable maternal pregnancy risk factors on molar-incisor hypomineralisation: A negative control study ObjectivesO_LITo explore the associations between modifiable maternal pregnancy exposures: pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), pregnancy smoking and alcohol consumption with offspring molar-incisor hypomineralisation (MIH).
C_LIO_LITo explore for the presence of residual confounding using negative control analyses.
C_LI

MethodsThis study used data from Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK prospective birth cohort. We defined offspring MIH using prospectively collected questionnaire data. We used logistic regression to explore confounder adjusted associations between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy with MIH. We included negative control exposure (paternal BMI, smoking and alcohol around the time of pregnancy) and outcome (offspring dental trauma) analyses to explore for the presence of residual confounding.

Results5536 mother/offspring pairs were included (297 MIH cases [5.4%]). We found a positive association between maternal mean BMI and offspring MIH (OR per 1-kg/m2 difference in maternal BMI: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). In subsequent analyses, we found evidence that this effect was non-linear and being driven by women in the highest BMI quintiles. In negative control analyses, we found no evidence of association between paternal BMI and offspring MIH (OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.00) and maternal BMI and offspring dental trauma (OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.02). There was no clear evidence of an association for maternal pregnancy smoking (OR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.46, 1.22) and alcohol consumption (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.56, 1.21) with offspring MIH with results imprecisely estimated.

ConclusionIn summary we found evidence of a possible intrauterine effect of high maternal pre-pregnancy BMI on offspring MIH. We did not find robust evidence for an intrauterine effect of maternal pregnancy smoking or alcohol consumption on offspring MIH. Our findings provide further support for women of reproductive age to maintain a healthy weight. Future studies are warranted to explore possible mechanisms on how the pregnancy environment may relate to offspring MIH. Serum proteome analysis of systemic JIA and related pulmonary alveolar proteinosis identifies distinct inflammatory programs and biomarkers ObjectivesRecent observations in systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (sJIA) suggest an increasing incidence of high-mortality interstitial lung disease, characterized by a variant of pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP). Co-occurrence of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) and PAP in sJIA suggested a shared pathology, but sJIA-PAP patients also commonly experience features of drug reaction such as atypical rashes and eosinophilia. We sought to investigate immunopathology and identify biomarkers in sJIA, MAS, and sJIA-PAP.

MethodsWe used SOMAscan to measure >1300 analytes in sera from healthy controls and patients with sJIA, MAS, sJIA-PAP and other related diseases. We verified selected findings by ELISA and lung immunostaining. Because the proteome of a sample may reflect multiple states (sJIA, MAS, sJIA-PAP), we used regression modeling to identify subsets of altered proteins associated with each state. We tested key findings in a validation cohort.

ResultsProteome alterations in active sJIA and MAS overlapped substantially, including known sJIA biomarkers like SAA and S100A9, and novel elevations of heat shock proteins and glycolytic enzymes. IL-18 was elevated in all sJIA groups, particularly MAS and sJIA-PAP. We also identified an MAS-independent sJIA-PAP signature notable for elevated ICAM5, MMP7, and allergic/eosinophilic chemokines, which were all previously associated with lung damage. Immunohistochemistry localized ICAM5 and MMP7 in sJIA-PAP lung. ICAM5s ability to distinguish sJIA-PAP from sJIA/MAS was independently validated.

ConclusionsSerum proteins support an sJIA-to-MAS continuum, help distinguish sJIA, sJIA/MAS, and sJIA-PAP, and suggest etiologic hypotheses. Select biomarkers, such as ICAM5, could aid in early detection and management of sJIA-PAP. Structural disconnectome mapping of cognitive function in post-stroke patients Sequalae following stroke represents a significant challenge in current rehabilitation. The location and size of focal lesions are only moderately predictive of the diverse cognitive outcome after stroke. One explanation building on recent work on brain networks proposes that the cognitive consequences of focal lesions are caused by damages to anatomically distributed brain networks supporting cognition rather than specific lesion locations. To investigate the association between post-stroke structural disconnectivity and cognitive performance, we estimated individual level whole-brain disconnectivity probability maps based on lesion maps from 102 stroke patients using normative data from healthy controls. Cognitive performance was assessed in the whole sample using Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and a more comprehensive computerized test protocol was performed on a subset (n=82). Multivariate analysis using Partial Least Squares on the disconnectome maps revealed that higher disconnectivity in right insular and frontal operculum, superior temporal gyrus and putamen was associated with poorer MoCA performance, indicating that lesions in regions connected with these brain regions are more likely to cause cognitive impairment. Furthermore, our results indicated that disconnectivity within these clusters was associated with poorer performance across multiple cognitive domains. These findings demonstrate that the extent and distribution of structural disconnectivity following stroke are sensitive to cognitive deficits and may provide important clinical information predicting post stroke cognitive sequalae.