Prevention of COVID-19 by mRNA-based vaccines within the general population of California BackgroundEstimates of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness under real-world conditions, and understanding of barriers to uptake, are necessary to inform vaccine rollout.

MethodsWe enrolled cases (testing positive) and controls (testing negative) from among the population whose SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnostic test results from 24 February-29 April 2021 were reported to the California Department of Public Health. Participants were matched on age, sex, and geographic region. We assessed participants self-reported history of COVID-19 vaccine receipt (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273). Participants were considered fully vaccinated two weeks after second dose receipt. Among unvaccinated participants, we assessed willingness to receive vaccination, when eligible. We measured vaccine effectiveness (VE) via the matched odds ratio of prior vaccination, comparing cases with controls.

ResultsWe enrolled 1023 eligible participants aged [&ge;]18 years. Among 525 cases, 71 (13.5%) received BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273; 20 (3.8%) were fully vaccinated with either product. Among 498 controls, 185 (37.1%) received BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273; 86 (16.3%) were fully vaccinated with either product. Two weeks after second dose receipt, VE was 86.8% (95% confidence interval: 68.6-94.7%) and 85.6% (69.1-93.9%) for BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. Fully vaccinated participants receiving either product experienced 91.3% (79.7-96.3%) and 68.3% (28.5-86.0%) VE against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection, respectively. Among unvaccinated participants, 42.4% (159/375) residing in rural regions and 23.8% (67/281) residing in urban regions reported hesitancy to receive COVID-19 vaccination.

ConclusionsAuthorized mRNA vaccines are effective at reducing documented SARS-CoV-2 infections within the general population of California. Vaccine hesitancy presents a barrier to reaching coverage levels needed for herd immunity.

Brief pointsO_LIVaccination is preventing documented SARS-CoV-2 infection in California, with 68% and 91% effectiveness against asymptomatic and symptomatic infection, respectively.
C_LIO_LIVaccine effectiveness was equivalent for BNT126b2 and mRNA-1273.
C_LIO_LIOnly 66% of unvaccinated participants were willing to receive the vaccine when eligible.
C_LI
Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our Stochastic Social Activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.
Macronutrient mass intake explains deferential weight and fat loss in isocaloric diets Differential weight and fat losses under isocaloric diets of distinct macronutrient composition are well-documented findings in obesity research.1-6 Such data are considered a result of inadequate methodology as it disagree with the energy balance theory.7 A recent mathematical analysis of this paradigm has found, however, serious analytical contradictions in its foundations.8 As an alternative, a mass balance model was proposed to explain the aforesaid body composition alterations. Here, we expand on this observation by contrasting both models. We show that mass balance explains a wide range of fending experiments including those concurring with the energy balance principle. The latter, however, is less flexible and results in poor forecasts in settings consistent with mass balance. The energy balance theory is thus an unsatisfactory model of body composition changes. Consequently, by shifting to a mass balance paradigm of obesity a much deeper understanding of this disease may follow in the near future. Airway management, procedural data, and mortality records of patients undergoing surgery for mucormycosis associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) In India, the second wave of coronavirus disease (COVID -19) was associated with a distinct surge in cases of invasive fungal infection with mucormycosis. This disease was seen typically in the sinonasal form in COVID-19 patients. Uncontrolled diabetes, steroid use in COVID-19 treatment, etc. were some of the postulated risk factors for the association of COVID 19 and Mucormycosis. The management plan of these cases included surgical debridement, systemic antifungal therapy, sugar control, and management of antifungal related systemic adverse effects. In this retrospective case record review, we aimed to evaluate the airway management plan, demographics, and overall outcomes in patients undergoing surgical resection for COVID-19 associated mucormycosis. Forty-one (71.9 %) patients had a diagnosis of sino-nasal mucormycosis, fourteen (24.6%) had a diagnosis of rhino-orbital mucormycosis, and 2 patients (3.5%) were diagnosed with palatal mucormycosis. Total 44 (77.19 %) patients had co-morbidities. The most common co-morbidity was Diabetes Mellitus 42 (73.6%), followed by hypertension 21 (36.84%) and Acute kidney injury 14 (28.07%). We used the intubation difficulty scale score to assess intubating conditions. Intubation was easy to slightly difficult in 53 out of 57 patients. In our study, mortality occurred in 7 (12.28 %) patients. The median mortality time was 60 (range, 27-74) days. The median time to hospital discharge was 53.5 (range,10-85) days. Managing COVID-19 on its own is challenging and additional mucormycosis can lead to increased morbidity and mortality. Despite challenges and risks, timely and meticulous interventions can reduce complications. Humoral immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination in people living with HIV receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy Humoral responses to COVID-19 vaccines in people living with HIV (PLWH) remain incompletely understood. We measured circulating antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, ACE2 displacement and live viral neutralization activities one month following the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses in 100 adult PLWH and 152 controls. All PLWH were receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy, with median CD4+ T-cell counts of 710 (IQR 525-935) cells/mm3. Nadir CD4+ T-cell counts ranged as low as <10 (median 280; IQR 120-490) cells/mm3. After adjustment for sociodemographic, health and vaccine-related variables, HIV infection was significantly associated with 0.2 log10 lower anti-RBD antibody concentrations (p=0.03) and [~]11% lower ACE2 displacement activity (p=0.02), but not lower viral neutralization (p=0.1) after one vaccine dose. Following two doses however, HIV was no longer significantly associated with the magnitude of any response measured. Rather, older age, a higher burden of chronic health conditions, and having received two ChAdOx1 doses (versus a heterologous or dual mRNA vaccine regimen) were independently associated with lower responses. After two vaccine doses, no significant correlation was observed between the most recent or nadir CD4+ T-cell counts and vaccine responses in PLWH. These results suggest that PLWH with well-controlled viral loads on antiretroviral therapy and CD4+ T-cell counts in a healthy range will generally not require a third COVID-19 vaccine dose as part of their initial immunization series, though other factors such as older age, co-morbidities, vaccine regimen type, and durability of vaccine responses will influence when this group may benefit from additional doses. Further studies of PLWH who are not receiving antiretroviral treatment and/or who have low CD4+ T-cell counts are needed. Short Practical Regimen of Acupuncture for Melasma: A Prospective Cohort Study in a Tertiary Hospital in Thailand BackgroundMelasma is a common skin pigmentation disorder. Acupuncture shows benefits for patients with melasma, although no standardized method or optimal number of sessions have been determined.

ObjectiveTo comparatively assess clinical outcomes of melasma between five vs ten standard acupuncture sessions.

MethodsWe performed a prospective observational cohort study in all melasma patients at the Acupuncture Clinic, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. All patients were treated with standard acupuncture procedure twice a week and were evaluated after the fifth and the tenth sessions of acupuncture, with a follow-up one week after the last session. Participants were divided into two treatment groups: Groups A and B received five and ten acupuncture sessions respectively. Melasma outcomes were assessed by using the Melanin Index (MI), Melasma Area and Severity Index (MASI), patient-reported improvement scores and acupuncture-related adverse events.

ResultsOf 113 participants, 67 received five sessions of acupuncture treatment while 39 received ten sessions. 7 participants did not finish treatment. After five sessions of acupuncture in Group A, the mean MI decreased by 28.7 (95%CI -38.5 to -18.8), whereas the median MASI decreased by 3.4 (-6.9, -1.2) points. After ten sessions of acupuncture in Group B, the mean MI decreased by 31.3 (95%CI -45.0 to -17.6), whereas the median MASI decreased by 5.4 (-9.9, - 3.0) points. The first five sessions of acupuncture had a higher effect on the change in magnitude than the last five sessions, although there was no statistically significant difference. However, ten-session of acupuncture, had not reached the peak benefit on melasma yet. Further studies should be done with a higher number of sessions to determine the optimal rounds of treatment. Twenty-nine participants reported minor side effects, mostly consisting of persistent pain and small hematoma. Group B had RR of having adverse events 1.8 times (95% CI 1.0-3.4) compared to group A.

ConclusionAcupuncture has a potential dose-response effect on clinical and patient-reported melasma outcomes with minor side effects. Comparison of in-hospital mortality and clinical outcomes among patients greater than and less than 80 years undergoing TAVR BackgroundTranscatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedure has been increasingly utilized in the management of aortic stenosis in the elderly. We sought to assess the hospital outcomes and major adverse events of TAVR in patients [&ge;]80 years old compared to those <80 years.

MethodsWe performed a retrospective observational study using the National Inpatient Sample - 2018. We divided TAVR patients into two cohorts based on age being [&ge;]80 years and <80 years old. The primary outcomes were the comparison of in-hospital mortality and major adverse events (MAE) in the cohorts.

ResultsWe identified 63,630 patients who underwent TAVR procedures from January 1 to December 31, 2018. Among them, 35, 115(55%) were [&ge;]80 years and 28,515(45%) were <80 years of age. There was a higher rate of post-procedure in-hospital mortality rate in patients [&ge;]80 years (1.6% vs. 1.1%, aOR=1.56, [CI 1.13 -2.16], p=0.006). They also had higher rates of pacemaker insertion compared to those <80 years old (7.4 vs 6.5%, aOR=1.17 [CI 1-1.35], p=0.03). On subgroup analysis, the rates of MAE were not different between the two cohorts (23.8 vs 23.4, p=0.09) but patients [&ge;]80 years who experienced MAE had higher in-hospital mortality (5.7 vs 4.3%, aOR=1.58 [CI=1.08-2.32], p=0.01) and shorter length of hospital stay (7.2 vs 8.7 days, p=0.03) compared to those <80. Anemia, liver disease, chronic kidney disease and previous stroke were associated with higher odds of in-hospital MAE in both groups.

ConclusionThis study shows that in patients undergoing TAVR, those [&ge;]80 years old had higher in-hospital mortality and higher rates of pacemaker insertion compared to those < 80 years. The rates of MAE were not significantly different between the two groups. The CT Scan Lung Severity Score and Vaccination Status in COVID-19 patients in India: Perspective of an Independent Radiology Practice BackgroundThe COVID-19 patients often undergo a high-resolution CT scan to determine extent of their lung involvement. The aim of this study was to determine lung involvement in confirmed/suspected COVID-19 patients (encountered at an independent radiology practice) and its correlation to vaccination status amidst the second COVID-19 wave in India.

MethodsWe retrospectively queried our data since April 2021 to identify adult patients (>17 years) who had confirmed (positive RT-PCR or antigen test) or suspected COVID-19 (classic symptoms but negative RT-PCR) and received a high-resolution CT scan to determine the extent of their lung involvement using the CT severity (CT-SS) score. Patients were classified in 3 groups based on their vaccination status to determine its correlation with the CT-SS score: fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated. Basic descriptive statistics, univariate tests and multivariate linear regression analysis were used.

ResultsWe identified 229 patients (median age 45 years, 60% male) of which 205 (89%) had confirmed COVID-19 (positive RT-PCR) and 24 had suspected disease (negative RT-PCT but classic symptoms). Of the 229 patients 29 (13%) had complete vaccination, 38 (17%) had partial vaccination and 162 (70%) had no vaccination. The CT score of the completely vaccinated patients was significantly lower compared to partially or unvaccinated patients (median 0 v. 3.5 v. 10, respectively p<.01). A multivariate linear regression model showed that partial or fully vaccinated patients had lower CT severity score compared to unvaccinated patients (adjusted R squared = 0.47).

ConclusionWe present here the real-world findings from an independent radiology practice (a unique and common practice model), in India amid the second COVID-19 wave showing significantly lower CT severity score in fully or partially vaccinated patients compared to unvaccinated patients. Complete vaccination in patients could be critical in preventing severe lung disease. Machine Learning Approaches for Binary Classification to Discover Liver Diseases using Clinical Data For a medical diagnosis, health professionals use different kinds of pathological ways to make a decision for medical reports in terms of patients medical condition. In the modern era, because of the advantage of computers and technologies, one can collect data and visualize many hidden outcomes from them. Statistical machine learning algorithms based on specific problems can assist one to make decisions. Machine learning data driven algorithms can be used to validate existing methods and help researchers to suggest potential new decisions. In this paper, Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations was applied to deal with missing data, and Principal Component Analysis to reduce the dimensionality. To reveal significant findings, data visualizations were implemented. We presented and compared many binary classifier machine learning algorithms (Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine) which were used to classify blood donors and non-blood donors with hepatitis, fibrosis and cirrhosis diseases. From the data published in UCI-MLR, all mentioned techniques were applied to find one better method to classify blood donors and non-blood donors (hepatitis, fibrosis, and cirrhosis) that can help health professionals in a laboratory to make better decisions. Our proposed ML-method showed a better accuracy score (e.g. 98.23% for SVM). Thus, it improved the quality of classification. DNR orders in SARS-CoV-2 patients: a retrospective validation study in a Swiss COVID-19 Center BackgroundThe worldwide pandemic situation forced many hospitals to adapt COVID-19 management strategies. In this scenario, the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences (SAMW/ASSM) organized national guidelines based on expert opinion to identify Do-Not-Resuscitate (DNR) patients, to reduce futile ICU admission and resource misuse. However, the practical impact of this standardized national protocol has not been yet evaluated. In our specialized COVID-19 Center, we investigated characteristics and mortality of DNR patients identified according to national standardized protocol, comparing them to non-DNR patients.

MethodsThis was a pilot retrospective validation study, evaluating consecutive hospital admitted COVID-19 patients. Primary outcome was 30-days survival of DNR patients in comparison to the control group. Secondary outcomes reported quality of treatment of deceased patients, especially of agitation/sedation and dyspnea, using respectively the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale - Palliative care (RASS-PAL) for sedation and agitation (+4/-5) and the modified Borg Scale for dyspnea (1-10).

ResultsFrom March 16 to April 1, 2020, 213 consecutive patients were triaged; at 30-days follow-up, 9 patients (22.5%) died in the DNR group, 4 (2.2%) in the control group. The higher mortality rate in the DNR group was further confirmed by Log-Rank Mantel-Cox (23.104, p < 0.0001). In the DNR-group deceased patients, end-of-life support was performed with oxygen (100%), opioids (100%) and sedatives (89%); the mean RASS-PAL improved from 2.2 to -1.8 (p < 0.0001) and the Borg scale improved from 5.7 to 4.7 (p = 0.581).

ConclusionA national standardized protocol identified patients at higher risk of short-term death. Although the legal status of DNRs varies from country to country, the implementation of national standardized protocol could be the way to guarantee a better treatment of COVID-19 patients in a pandemic situation with limited resources. Substance Use Onset in High-Risk 9-13 Year-Olds in the ABCD Study AimA key aim of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study is to document substance use onset, patterns, and sequelae across adolescent development. However, substance use misreporting obscures accurate drug use characterization. Hair toxicology tests provide objective historical substance use data, but are rarely investigated in youth. Here, we compare objective hair toxicology results with self-reported substance use in youth.

MethodsA literature-based substance use risk algorithm identified 696 ABCD Study(R) participants for hair sample collections between baseline and 2-year follow-up (spanning ages 9-13) for laboratory analysis. Chi-square and t-tests assessed differences between participants demographics, positive and negative hair tests, risk algorithm scores, and self-reported substance use.

ResultsHair testing confirmed that 17% of at-risk 9-13 year-olds had evidence of past 3-month use of one (n=99), two (n=17), three (n=3), or four (n=2) drug classes. After considering prescribed medication use, 11% had a positive test incongruent with self- or parent-report. No participant with a positive result self-reported substance use consistent with their toxicology results. Participants with positive tests under-reported use (p<.001), reported less sipping of alcohol (p<.001), and scored higher on the risk algorithm (p<.001) than those with negative hair toxicology.

ConclusionsAn alarming 11% of tested samples in at-risk 9-13 year-olds were positive for at least one unreported substance, suggesting underreporting in this population when participating in a national healthy development study. The degree of underreporting cannot yet be calculated, as at-risk samples were prioritized for assays. Expanded toxicology testing is key to characterize substance use in youth. Current state of COVID-19 knowledge, attitude, practices, and associated factors among Bangladeshi food handlers from various food industries. While people around the world are terrified of the global pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and are dying for a permanent solution, undertaking preventive safety measures are said to be the most effective way to stay away from it. Peoples adherences to these measures are broadly dependent on their knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP). People working in the food industries must be extra cautious during this time because they are in close proximity to consumable items. The present study was designed to evaluate food handlers knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding COVID-19 in different food industries in Bangladesh. A number of 400 food handlers from 15 food industries took part in this online-based study. The information was collected from the participants through a questionnaire prepared in Google form. With a correct response rate of about 90% on average (knowledge 89.7%, attitude 93%, practices 88.2%), the participants showed an acceptable of KAP regarding COVID-19. Education and working experiences had a significant association with the total KAP scores (p < 0.05). The findings may assist public health professionals and practitioners in developing targeted strategies for implementing such studies in other industrial sectors and taking appropriate measures based on the KAP studies. Impact of COVID 19 on the quality of life (QoL) of patients living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos Nigeria The study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Quality of Life (QoL) in persons living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos, Nigeria and to determine how they coped during the pandemic, particularly during the period of total lockdown with the additional "SHIELDING" measures to which they had to adhere. Data was collected using a standardized protocol PedsQL, Sickle Cell Disease Module version.3.0 designed for youth within the ages of (13-18) years, (19-35) years and their parents/Guardian if underage. The survey captured data on patients pain impact, hurts, management, treatments, communication with their caregivers and their Guardians perception. The survey was performed online, or Face-to-Face/telephone interview if online was not possible. Contacts of patients and parents were obtained from the database of Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria. A total of 105 (80 patients and 25 parents) participants responded to the survey. The age distribution of respondents was highest at 56 % in the age bracket of 13 - 18 years old. Pain crisis were very common amongst patients. The survey revealed that the type of treatment or care received at these times determined whether or not the patients visited the hospital when they had pain crises. In addition, as patients reports an increase in ill-treatment they experienced in the hands of health care givers, so did the fear of accessing treatment during the COVID pandemic. It was observed that the frequency of pain crises experienced by SCD patients was proportional to the patients quality of life (the higher the frequency of pains, the worse the QoL). As a follow-up, a more detailed study would be required, as this study was limited in the capturing of the demographics, sex and number of participants; Considering the number of persons living with SCD that visit the Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria, (about 3,000 patients), the number of responses in this study was low (105). It is believed that a higher number of responses would have given more information about the Sickle Cell burden and the QoL of persons living with SCD in Lagos during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lagos was the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Using controlled interrupted time series to estimate the population-level effects of Ontario's recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services BackgroundOntario recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services (OPS/CTS) to stem the harms of the opioid epidemic. We tested whether operating any site improved local opioid-related health service use and mortality rates.

MethodsWe used monthly counts of all opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths between January 2014 and December 2020 for our outcomes. For each public health unit (PHU) that implemented any OPS/CTS, we created a synthetic control as a weighted combination of unexposed PHU. We estimated the population-level effects of operating any site using controlled interrupted time series with segmented regression and adjusted for time varying confounders (i.e. OPS/CTS capacity, naloxone kits distributed, and persons receiving opioid agonist treatment per 100,000 population). We repeated the analysis using a multiple baseline approach to estimate province-wide effects.

ResultsBetween 2017 and 2020, nine out of 34 PHU implemented at least one OPS/CTS. ED visit (RR=0.96, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.99) and hospitalization (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98) trends declined faster among treated units. Improvements in local ED visit rate trends were observed for the majority of treated units. Hospitalization rates declined faster for London (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.95 - 0.99) and Niagara (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98); while mortality rates declined faster for Hamilton (RR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 - 0.96), Niagara (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.94 - 0.99) and Guelph (RR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.88 - 1.00).

ConclusionAlthough OPS/CTS are not sufficient to stem the harms of the opioid overdose epidemic on their own, they play a critical role in local harm reduction strategies. "If somebody had told me I'd feel like I do now, I wouldn't have believed them"    Older adults' experiences of the BELL trial: a qualitative study ObjectivesThis study examined older adults experiences of participating in the BELL trial, involving 12-weeks of group-based hardstyle kettlebell training.

MethodsIn the BELL trial, 28 insufficiently active older adults (15 women, 13 men, 59-79 years) completed 6 weeks of face-to-face group training, and 6 weeks of home-based training. In-depth semi-structured interviews were audio recorded and transcribed, inductively coded, with themes constructed thematically from patterns of shared meaning.

ResultsFour higher-order themes were developed that reflect older adults experiences participating in a group-exercise program of hardstyle kettlebell training. These included: (1) "Its one of the best things weve done" - enjoying the physical and psychosocial benefits, (2) "Its improved it tremendously!" - change in a long-term health condition, (3) "It put me on a better course" - overcoming challenges, (4) "I wasnt just a number" - feeling part of a group/community.

DiscussionFindings highlight the perceived physical and psychological benefits of participating in hardstyle group kettlebell training, the value attributed to being part of an age-matched community of like-minded people engaged in group-exercise, as well as the challenges participants faced, and the sense of achievement in overcoming them. Implications for program design and delivery, and future research are discussed. Integrating genome-wide polygenic risk scores and non-genetic risk to predict colorectal cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in UK Biobank ObjectivesTo evaluate the benefit of combining polygenic risk scores (PRS) with the QCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) non-genetic risk prediction model to identify those at highest risk of colorectal cancer (CRC).

DesignPopulation based cohort study. Six different PRS for CRC were developed (using LDpred2 PRS software, clumping and thresholding approaches, and genome-wide significant models). The top-performing genome-wide and GWAS-significant PRS were then combined with QCancer-10 and performance compared to QCancer-10 alone. Case-control (logistic regression) and time-to-event (Cox proportional hazards) analyses were used to evaluate risk model performance in men and women.

Setting and participantsUK Biobank Study. A total of 434587 individuals with complete genetic and QCancer-10 predictor data were included in the QCancer-10+PRS modelling cohorts.

Main outcome measuresPrediction of colorectal cancer diagnosis by genetic, non-genetic and combined risk models.

FindingsPRS derived using the LDpred2 program performed best, with an odds-ratio per standard deviation of 1.58, and top age- and sex-adjusted C-statistic of 0.733 (95% confidence interval 0.710 to 0.753) in logistic regression models in the validation cohort. Integrated QCancer-10+PRS models out-performed QCancer-10 alone. In men, the integrated LDpred2 (QCancer-10+LDP) model produced a C-statistic of 0.730 (0.720 to 0.741) and explained variation of 28.1% (26.3% to 30.0%), compared with 0.693 (0.682 to 0.704) and 21.0% (18.9% to 23.1%) for QCancer-10 alone. Performance improvements in women were similar. In the top 20% of individuals at highest absolute risk, the sensitivity of QCancer-10+LDP models for predicting CRC diagnosis within 5 years was 47.6% in men and 42.5% in women, with respective 3.49-fold and 2.75-fold absolute increases in the top 5% of risk compared to average. Decision curve analysis showed that adding PRS to QCancer-10 improved net-benefit and interventions avoided, across most probability thresholds.

ConclusionsIntegrating PRS with QCancer-10 significantly improves risk prediction over QCancer-10 alone. Evaluation of risk stratified population screening using this approach is warranted.

Summary BoxO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIRisk stratification based on genetic or environmental risk factors could improve cancer screening outcomes
C_LIO_LINo previously published study has examined integrated models combining genome-wide PRS and non-genetic risk factors beyond age
C_LIO_LIQCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) is the top-performing non-genetic risk prediction model for CRC
C_LI

What this study addsO_LIAdding PRS to the QCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) risk prediction model improves performance and clinical benefit, with greatest gain from the LDpred2 genome-wide PRS, to a level that suggests utility in stratifying CRC screening and prevention
C_LI Complementary frailty and mortality prediction models on older patients as a tool for assessing palliative care needs BackgroundPalliative care (PC) has demonstrated benefits for life-limiting illnesses. Cancer patients have mainly accessed these services, but there is growing consensus about the importance of promoting access for patients with non-malignant disease. Bad survival prognosis and patients frailty are usual dimensions to decide PC inclusion.

ObjectivesThe main aim of this work is to design and evaluate three quantitative models based on machine learning approaches to predict frailty and mortality on older patients in the context of supporting PC decision making: one-year mortality, survival regression and one-year frailty classification.

MethodsThe dataset used in this study is composed of 39,310 hospital admissions for 19,753 older patients (age >= 65) from January 1st, 2011 to December 30th, 2018. All prediction models were based on Gradient Boosting Machines. From the initial pool of variables at hospital admission, 20 were selected by a recursive feature elimination algorithm based on the random forests GINI importance criterion. Besides, we run an independent grid search to find the best hyperparameters in each model. The evaluation was performed by 10-fold cross-validation and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and mean absolute error were reported. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to compare our proposed approach with classical survival methods.

ResultsThe one-year mortality model achieved an AUC ROC of 0.87 {+/-} 0.01; the mortality regression model achieved an MAE of 329.97 {+/-} 5.24 days. The one-year frailty classification reported an AUC ROC of 0.9 {+/-} 0.01. The Spearmans correlation between the admission frailty index and the survival time was -0.1, while the point-biserial correlation between one-year frailty index and survival time was -0.16.

ConclusionsOne-year mortality model performance is at a state-of-the-art level. Frailty Index used in this study behaves coherently with other works in the literature. One-year frailty classifier demonstrated that frailty status within the year could be predicted accurately. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting one-year frailty status based on a frailty index. We found mortality and frailty as two weakly correlated and complementary PC needs assessment criteria. Predictive models are available online at http://demoiapc.upv.es. The effect of stimulus duration on preferences for gain adjustments when listening to speech ObjectivesIn the personalisation of hearing aid fittings, gain is often adjusted to suit patient preferences using live speech. When using brief sentences as stimuli, the minimum gain adjustments necessary to elicit consistent preferences ( preference thresholds) were previously found to be much greater than typical adjustments in current practice. The current study examined the role of duration on preference thresholds.

DesignParticipants heard 2, 4 and 6-s segments of a continuous monologue presented successively in pairs. The first segment of each pair was presented at each individuals real-ear or prescribed gain. The second segment was presented with a {+/-}0-12 dB gain adjustment in one of three frequency bands. Participants judged whether the second was "better", "worse" or "no different" from the first.

Study SampleTwenty-nine adults, all with hearing-aid experience.

ResultsThe minimum gain adjustments needed to elicit "better" or "worse" judgments decreased with increasing duration for most adjustments. Inter-participant agreement and intra-participant reliability increased with increasing duration up to 4 s, then remained stable.

ConclusionsProviding longer stimuli improves the likelihood of patients providing reliable judgments of hearing-aid gain adjustments, but the effect is limited, and alternative fitting methods may be more viable for effective hearing-aid personalisation. The incidence of delirium in an acute geriatric community hospital: an observational cohort feasibility study. ObjectivesDelirium in hospitalised older adults is associated with negative health outcomes. Admission to an alternative care setting may lower the incidence of delirium. The Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH) was recently opened in the Netherlands and uses a multi-component non-pharmacological intervention strategy to prevent delirium. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of delirium at the AGCH and compare this incidence to existing rates from literature. If a possible effect on delirium is seen in this comparison this would support conducting a larger prospectively controlled study on delirium in this new care setting.

DesignProspective cohort feasibility study; exploratory meta-analysis of proportions.

Setting and ParticipantsThe AGCH is an acute geriatric unit in a skilled nursing facility for patients aged >65 years with acute medical conditions.

MethodsDelirium assessment using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) upon admission and on day one, two and three or until delirium had resolved. Patients charts were reviewed if CAM was missing. In an linear mixed-effects model, the delirium incidence rate in AGCH was compared to pooled delirium incidence rates from six studies found in a high-quality review.

Results214 patients from the AGCH (mean age 81.9 years, 47% male, 12% with a history of dementia) were included in the analysis. Delirium developed in 8% (18/214) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5-13%) of patients during AGCH admission compared to 16% (95% CI 12-21%) in hospitals. Admission to the AGCH was associated with a decreased delirium incidence rate compared to the hospital control group (OR[odds ratio]= 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98, p-value=0.044).

Conclusions and implicationsThe delirium incidence in the AGCH was low compared to those incidences found in general hospitals in literature. Based on these findings a controlled observational or randomized study measuring delirium in this care setting is recommended. Patterns of brain degeneration in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis Recurrent neuroinflammation in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) is thought to lead to neurodegeneration, resulting in progressive disability. Repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain provides non-invasive measures of atrophy over time, a key marker of neurodegeneration. This study investigates regional neurodegeneration of the brain in early-stage RRMS using volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM).

RRMS patients (N=354) underwent 3T structural MRI at diagnosis and 1-year follow-up, as part of the Scottish multicentre  FutureMS study. MRI data were processed using FreeSurfer to derive volumetrics, and FSL for VBM (grey matter (GM) only), to establish patterns of change in GM and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) over time throughout the cerebrum, cerebellum and brainstem.

Volumetric analyses showed a decrease over time (q<0.05) in bilateral cortical GM and NAWM, multiple subcortical structures, cerebellar GM and the brainstem. Additionally, NAWM and GM volume decreased respectively in the following cortical regions, frontal: 14 out of 28 regions and 17/28; temporal: 18/18 and 15/18; parietal: 14/14 and 11/14; occipital: 7/8 and 8/8. Left GM and NAWM asymmetry was observed in the frontal lobe. GM VBM analysis showed three major clusters of decrease over time: 1) temporal lobe and subcortical areas, 2) cerebellum, 3) anterior cingulum and supplementary motor cortex; and four smaller clusters within the occipital lobe.

Widespread neurodegeneration was observed in early-stage RRMS; particularly in the brainstem, cerebellar GM, and subcortical and occipital-temporal regions. Volumetric and VBM results emphasise different as well as overlapping patterns of longitudinal change, and provide potential response markers for existing therapies and trials of neuroprotective agents. Hyperreflective foci, OCT progression indicators in age-related macular degeneration, include transdifferentiated retinal pigment epithelium PurposeBy optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging, hyperreflective foci (HRF) indicate progression risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and are in part attributable to ectopic retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). We hypothesized that ectopic RPE are molecularly distinct from in-layer cells and that their cross-retinal course follows Muller glia.

MethodIn clinical OCT (61 eyes, 44 AMD patients, 79.4 {+/-} 7.7 years; 29 female; follow-up = 4.7 {+/-} 0.9 years) one HRF type, RPE plume, was reviewed. Twenty eyes of 20 donors characterized by ex vivo OCT were analyzed by histology (normal, 4; early/intermediate AMD, 7; geographic atrophy (GA), 6; 3 neovascular AMD (nvAMD). Cryosections were stained with antibodies to retinoid (RPE65, CRALPB) and immune (CD68, CD163) markers. In published RPE cellular phenotypes, red immunoreactivity was assessed semi-quantitatively by one observer (none, some cells, all cells).

ResultsTrajectories of RPE plume and cellular debris paralleled Muller glia, whether ordered or subsident, near atrophy borders. RPE corresponding to HRF lost immunoreactivity for retinoid markers and gained immunoreactivity for immune markers. Aberrant immunoreactivity appeared in individual in-layer RPE cells and extended to all abnormal phenotypes. Muller glia remained CRALBP-positive. Plume cells approached and contacted retinal capillaries.

ConclusionGain- and loss-of-function starts with individual in-layer RPE cells and extends to all abnormal phenotypes. Down-regulated RPE retinoid handling may impair rod vision while Muller glia sustain cone vision. Evidence for RPE transdifferentiation, possibly due to ischemia, supports a proposed process of epithelial-mesenchyme transition. Data can propel new biomarkers and therapeutic strategies for AMD.

PrecisHyperreflective foci (HRF) are OCT progression risk indicators in age-related macular degeneration. Abnormal RPE cells including some that correspond to HRF lose immunoreactivity for retinoid markers and gain immunoreactivity for immune markers, indicating molecular transdifferentiation. Cell-free DNA ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing to distinguish malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST) from its benign precursor lesion: a cross-sectional study BackgroundThe leading cause of mortality for patients with the Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) cancer predisposition syndrome is development of Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumor (MPNST), an aggressive soft tissue sarcoma. In the setting of NF1, this cancer type frequently arises from within its common and benign precursor, plexiform neurofibroma (PN). Transformation from PN to MPNST is challenging to diagnose due to difficulties in distinguishing cross-sectional imaging results and intralesional heterogeneity resulting in biopsy sampling errors.

Methods and FindingsThis multi-institutional study from the National Cancer Institute and Washington University in St. Louis used fragment size analysis and ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing (ULP-WGS) of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) to distinguish between MPNST and PN in patients with NF1. Following in-silico enrichment for short cfDNA fragments and copy number analysis to estimate the fraction of plasma cfDNA originating from tumor (tumor fraction), we developed a noninvasive classifier which differentiates MPNST from PN with 86% pre-treatment accuracy (91% specificity, 75% sensitivity), and 89% accuracy on serial analysis (91% specificity, 83% sensitivity). Healthy controls without NF1 (subjects = 16, plasma samples = 16), PN (subjects = 23, plasma samples = 23), and MPNST (subjects = 14, plasma samples = 46) cohorts showed significant differences in tumor fraction in plasma (P = 0.001 as well as cfDNA fragment length (P < 0.001) with MPNST samples harboring shorter fragments and being enriched for tumor-derived cfDNA relative to PN and healthy controls. Mutational analysis demonstrated focal NF1 copy number loss in PN and MPNST patient plasma but not in healthy controls. Greater genomic instability including alterations associated with malignant transformation (focal copy number gains in chromosome arms 1q, 7p, 8q, 9q, and 17q; focal copy number losses in SUZ12, SMARCA2, CDKN2A/B, and chromosome arms 6p and 9p) was more prominently observed in MPNST plasma. Furthermore, the sum of longest tumor diameters (SLD) visualized by cross-sectional imaging correlated significantly with paired tumor fractions in plasma from MPNST patients (r = 0.39, P = 0.024). On serial analysis, tumor fraction levels in plasma dynamically correlated with treatment response to therapy and minimal residual disease (MRD) detection before relapse. Study limitations include a modest MPNST sample size despite accrual from two major referral centers for this rare malignancy, and lack of uniform treatment and imaging protocols representing a real-world cohort.

ConclusionsTumor fraction levels derived from cfDNA fragment size and copy number alteration analysis of plasma cfDNA using ULP-WGS significantly correlated with MPNST tumor burden, accurately distinguished MPNST from its benign PN precursor, and dynamically correlated with treatment response. In the future, our findings could form the basis for improved early cancer detection and monitoring in high-risk cancer-predisposed populations.

Author summaryO_ST_ABSWhy was this study done?C_ST_ABS[tpltrtarr] Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is the most common inherited cancer predisposition syndrome.
[tpltrtarr]The leading cause of mortality in NF1 is malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST), an aggressive soft tissue sarcoma that arises from a benign plexiform neurofibroma (PN) precursor lesion.
[tpltrtarr]Transformation from PN to MPNST is challenging to detect by imaging (due to difficulty in distinguishing PN from MPNST radiologically) or by biopsy (due to intralesional heterogeneity), which often delays the diagnosis of MPNST and results in a worsened prognosis.


What did the researchers do and find?[tpltrtarr] We conducted a multi-institutional study involving two large NF1 referral centers, the National Cancer Institute and Washington University in St. Louis, involving 73 patients from whom plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was analyzed using ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing (ULP-WGS).
We found that cfDNA from patients with MPNST harbors a shorter fragmentation profile compared to patients with PN or healthy donors. Using sequencing reads from this fragmentation profile, we quantified genome-wide copy number alterations (CNAs) in cfDNA and used CNAs to estimate the fraction of plasma cfDNA originating from tumor.
[tpltrtarr]Tumor fraction in plasma cfDNA distinguished pre-treatment MPSNT from PN with 86% accuracy. Plasma cfDNA from MPNST and PN patients harbored focal copy number loss of NF1, not found in healthy donors. Strikingly, MPNST patient cfDNA also had significantly greater tumor genomic instability compared to PN, with copy number alterations in key genomic loci previously observed in MPNST tissue (i.e., gain of chromosome arm 8q and loss of 9p), which enabled sensitive and specific liquid biopsy discrimination of MPNST from PN.
[tpltrtarr]Plasma-derived tumor fraction correlated with tumor size from imaging in MPNST patients, and serial cfDNA analysis demonstrated the potential for noninvasive detection of minimal residual disease, treatment response assessment, and the potential for even greater assay sensitivity.


What do these findings mean?[tpltrtarr] Our findings suggest that cfDNA fragment analysis followed by ULP-WGS has the potential to be developed as a biomarker for treatment response, and as a screening assay for early detection of MPNST.
[tpltrtarr]This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence for the ability of liquid biopsy to distinguish between benign and malignant tumors in a heritable cancer predisposition syndrome. Feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness program for stroke survivors and caregivers BackgroundMindfulness is promising for individuals with neurological disorders and their caregivers to improve psychological well-being. The potential application of a Langerian mindfulness intervention, focused on attention to variability, however, is still unknown.

ObjectiveTo determine the feasibility (usability, satisfaction, and potential effectiveness on psychological well-being) of an online mindfulness intervention for stroke survivors and caregivers.

MethodologyUsing mixed-methods, 11 stroke survivors and 3 caregivers participated in a 3-week, online, Langerian mindfulness intervention. A semi-structured interview assessed the interventions usability and gathered feedback. Self-reported measures about psychological well-being were documented remotely three times (pre, post, one-month follow-up).

ResultsQualitatively, participants were highly satisfied with the intervention, reported subjective benefits, but the usability of the online platform was poor. None of the self-reported measures changed over time.

ConclusionThis study provided evidence of feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness intervention in a new population: stroke survivors and caregivers. The tumor suppressor Adenomatous polyposis coli regulates T lymphocyte migration. Insights from familial polyposis patients Adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) is a tumor suppressor whose mutations underlie familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and colorectal cancer. Although its role in intestinal epithelial cells is well characterized, APC importance for anti-tumor immunity is ill defined. APC regulates cytoskeleton organization, cell polarity and migration in various cells types. Here we address whether APC plays a role in T lymphocyte migration, a key step of anti-tumor immune responses.

Using a series of cell biology tools, we demonstrated that T cells from FAP patients carrying APC mutations display adhesion and migration defects. Concomitantly, they presented lower expression of the integrin VLA-4. To further dissect the cellular mechanisms underpinning these defects, we depleted APC in the CEM T cell line. We found that APC is critical not only for VLA-4-dependent adhesion but also for actomyosin and microtubule organization in migrating T cells. Finally, APC-silenced CEM cells preferentially adopt an ameboid-like migration featuring unstructured pseudopodia and blebbing.

These findings underscore a role of APC in T cell migration via modulation of integrin-dependent adhesion and cytoskeleton reorganization. Hence, APC mutations in FAP patients not only drive intestinal neoplasms, but also impair T cell migration, potentially leading to inefficient T cell-mediated anti-tumor immunity. "What do you mean I can't have a doctor? This is Canada!" - A Qualitative Study of the Myriad Consequences for Unattached Patients Awaiting Primary Care Attachment BackgroundPatient access to primary healthcare (PHC) is the foundation of a strong healthcare system and healthy populations. Attachment to a regular PHC provider, a key to healthcare access, has seen a decline in some jurisdictions. This study explored the consequences of unattachment from a patient perspective, an under-studied phenomenon to date.

MethodsA realist-informed qualitative study was conducted with unattached patients in Nova Scotia, Canada. Semi-structured interviews with nine participants were conducted and transcribed for analysis. The framework method was used to carry out analysis, which was guided by Donabedians model of assessing healthcare access and quality.

ResultsFive key findings were noted in this study: 1) Participants experienced a range of consequences from not having a regular PHC provider. Participants used creative strategies to 2) attempt to gain attachment to a regular PHC provider, and, to 3) address their health needs in the absence of a regular PHC provider. 4) Participants experienced negative feelings about themselves and the healthcare system, and 5) stress related to the consequences and added work of being unattached and lost care.

ConclusionsUnattached patients experienced a burden of care related to lost care and managing their own health and related information, due to the download of medical record management and system navigation to them. These findings may underestimate the consequences for further at-risk populations who would not have been included in our recruitment. This may result in poorer health outcomes, which could be mitigated by interventions at the structural level, such as enhanced centralized waitlists to promote attachment. Such waitlists may benefit from a triage approach to appropriately attach patients based on need.