Estimating the Failure Risk of Quarantine Systems for Preventing COVID-19 Outbreaks in Australia and New Zealand ObjectivesTo identify COVID-19 outbreaks and border control failures associated with quarantine systems in Australia and New Zealand and to estimate the failure risks.

Design, setting, participantsObservational epidemiological study of travellers transiting quarantine in Australia and New Zealand up to 15 June 2021.

Main outcome measuresThe incidence of COVID-19 related failures arising from quarantine, and the failure risk for those transiting quarantine, estimated both per 100,000 travellers and per 1000 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases.

ResultsAustralia and New Zealand had 32 COVID-19 related failures arising from quarantine systems up to 15 June 2021 (22 and 10, respectively). One resultant outbreak involved an estimated 800 deaths and quarantine failures instigated nine lockdowns. The failure risk for those transiting quarantine was estimated at 5.0 failures per 100,000 travellers and 6.1 failures (95%CI: 4.0 to 8.3) per 1000 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases. The latter risk was two-fold higher in New Zealand compared with Australia. The full vaccination of frontline border workers could likely have prevented a number of quarantine system failures.

ConclusionsQuarantine system failures can be costly in terms of lives and economic impacts such as lockdowns. Ongoing improvements or alternatives to hotel-based quarantine are required.
Indomethacin use for Mild & Moderate hospitalised Covid-19 patients: An open label randomised clinical trial IntroductionIndomethacin, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), has been presented as a broad-spectrum antiviral agent. This randomised clinical trial in a hospital setting evaluated the efficacy and safety of this drug in RT-PCR-positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.

Materials & MethodsA total of 210 RT-PCR-positive COVID-19 patients, who provided consent were allotted, to control or case arm, based on block randomisation. The control arm received standard of care comprising paracetamol, ivermectin, and other adjuvant therapies. The patients in the case arm received indomethacin instead of paracetamol, with other medications retained. The primary endpoint was the development of hypoxia/desaturation with SpO2 [&le;] 93, while time to become afebrile and time for cough and myalgia resolution were the secondary endpoints.

ResultsThe results of 210 patients were available, with 103 and 107 patients in the indomethacin and paracetamol arms, respectively. We monitored patient profiles along with everyday clinical parameters. Blood chemistry at the time of admission and discharge was assessed.

As no one in either of the arms required high-flow oxygen, desaturation with SpO2 level of 93 and below was an important goal. In the indomethacin group, none of the 103 patients developed desaturation. On the other hand, 20 of the 107 patients in the paracetamol arm developed desaturation. Patients who received indomethacin also experienced more rapid symptomatic relief than those in the paracetamol arm, with most symptoms disappearing in half the time. 56 patients out of 107 in the paracetamol arm had fever on the seventh day, while no patient in the indomethacin group had fever. Neither arm reported any adverse event. The fourteenth-day follow-up revealed that the paracetamol arm patients had faced several discomforts, including myalgia, joint pain, and tiredness; indomethacin arm patients mostly complained only of tiredness.

ConclusionIndomethacin is a safe and effective drug for treating patients with mild and moderate covid-19.
Increase in SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific IgA and IgG Antibodies in Human Milk from Lactating Women Following the COVID-19 Booster Vaccination The CDC recommended a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty (BNT162b2) COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in September 2021 for high-risk individuals. Pregnant and high-risk lactating women were encouraged to receive the booster to obtain potential prolonged protection for themselves and their infants. This study investigated the ability of the booster vaccine to increase IgA and IgG antibodies specific to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in breast milk compared to levels pre-booster. We found a significant increase in both anti-RBD-specific IgA and IgG antibodies in breast milk following the Pfizer-BioNTech booster and this increase was present in the majority of participants at the study endpoint (60 days post-booster). These results suggest the booster enhances SARS-CoV-2 specific immunity in human breast milk, which may be protective for infants. The effects of modifiable maternal pregnancy risk factors on molar-incisor hypomineralisation: A negative control study ObjectivesO_LITo explore the associations between modifiable maternal pregnancy exposures: pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), pregnancy smoking and alcohol consumption with offspring molar-incisor hypomineralisation (MIH).
C_LIO_LITo explore for the presence of residual confounding using negative control analyses.
C_LI

MethodsThis study used data from Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK prospective birth cohort. We defined offspring MIH using prospectively collected questionnaire data. We used logistic regression to explore confounder adjusted associations between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy with MIH. We included negative control exposure (paternal BMI, smoking and alcohol around the time of pregnancy) and outcome (offspring dental trauma) analyses to explore for the presence of residual confounding.

Results5536 mother/offspring pairs were included (297 MIH cases [5.4%]). We found a positive association between maternal mean BMI and offspring MIH (OR per 1-kg/m2 difference in maternal BMI: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). In subsequent analyses, we found evidence that this effect was non-linear and being driven by women in the highest BMI quintiles. In negative control analyses, we found no evidence of association between paternal BMI and offspring MIH (OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.00) and maternal BMI and offspring dental trauma (OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.02). There was no clear evidence of an association for maternal pregnancy smoking (OR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.46, 1.22) and alcohol consumption (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.56, 1.21) with offspring MIH with results imprecisely estimated.

ConclusionIn summary we found evidence of a possible intrauterine effect of high maternal pre-pregnancy BMI on offspring MIH. We did not find robust evidence for an intrauterine effect of maternal pregnancy smoking or alcohol consumption on offspring MIH. Our findings provide further support for women of reproductive age to maintain a healthy weight. Future studies are warranted to explore possible mechanisms on how the pregnancy environment may relate to offspring MIH. Lipid peroxidation induced ApoE receptor-ligand disruption as a unifying hypothesis underlying sporadic Alzheimer's disease in humans Structured AbstractO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSSporadic Alzheimers disease (sAD) lacks a unifying hypothesis that can account for the lipid peroxidation observed early in the disease, enrichment of ApoE in the central core of neuritic plaques, the hallmark plaques and tangles, and the selective vulnerability of entorhinal-hippocampal structures.

ObjectiveWe hypothesized that (1) high expression of ApoER2 (receptor for ApoE and Reelin) could help explain the selective anatomical vulnerability; and (2) lipid peroxidation of ApoE and ApoER2 contributes to sAD pathogenesis, by disrupting ApoE delivery and Reelin-ApoER2 signaling cascades.

MethodsWe conducted in vitro biochemical experiments, single-marker immunohistochemistry (IHC), and multiplex fluorescence-IHC (MP-IHC) in postmortem specimens from 26 individuals who died cognitively normal, with Mild Cognitive Impairment or with sAD.

ResultsIn biochemical experiments, Lys- and His-enriched peptides within the binding domains of ApoE and ApoER2 and their corresponding recombinant proteins, were susceptible to attack by reactive lipid aldehydes, generating lipid-protein adducts and crosslinked ApoE-ApoER2 complexes. Using in situ hybridization alongside IHC and MP-IHC, we observed that: (1) ApoER2 is strongly expressed in terminal zones of the entorhinal-hippocampal  perforant path projections that underlie memory; (2) ApoE and lipid aldehyde-modified ApoE, Reelin, ApoER2 and several downstream components of Reelin-ApoER2 signaling cascades accumulated in the immediate vicinity of neuritic plaques in perforant path terminal zones in sAD cases; and (3) several ApoE/Reelin-ApoER2 pathway markers--including the ApoER2 ligand binding domain, Disabled homolog-1 (Dab1), and Thr19-phosphorylated PSD95 (marker of synaptic disassembly)--were higher in sAD cases than controls and positively correlated with histological progression and cognitive deficits.

ConclusionResults provide proof-of-concept that ApoE and ApoER2 are vulnerable to lipid aldehyde induced adduction and crosslinking and demonstrate derangements in multiple ApoE/Reelin-ApoER2-Dab1 axis components in perforant path terminal zones in AD. Findings provide the foundation for a unifying hypothesis implicating lipid peroxidation of ApoE particles and ApoE receptors in sAD in humans. Elevated Levels of IL-6 in IgA Nephropathy patients are induced by an Epigenetically Driven Mechanism Triggered by Viral and Bacterial RNA Recently, a several models has been proposed to describe the pathogenesis of Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), and among them the multihit and the gut-microbiota. These models explain the pathogenesis of IgAN caused by the production of aberrant IgA, but it is believed further predisposing factors are present, including immunological, genetic, environmental, or nutritional factors that can influence the pathogenesis and that could be useful for development of precision nephrology and personalized therapy.

Newly, the role of IL-6 in pathogenesis is becoming increasingly important. It is essential for glomerular immunoglobulin A deposition and the development of renal pathology in Cd37-deficient mice, even if the reason why levels of IL-6 are elevated in IgAN patients is not well understood. One attainable hypothesis on high levels of IL-6 in IgAN comes out from our recent whole genome DNA methylation screening in IgAN patients, that identified, among others, a hypermethylated region comprising Vault RNA 2-1 (VTRNA2-1), a non-coding RNA also known as precursor of miR-886 (pre-mi-RNA). Consistently, the VTRNA2-1 expression was found down-regulated in IgAN patients.

Here we confirm that VTRNA2-1 is low expressed in IgAN subjects compared to HS and we found that also in transplanted IgAN patients (TP-IgAN), compared to non IgAN transplanted patients (TP), the VTRNA2-1 transcript was expressed at level very low. We found that in IgAN patients with downregulated VTRNA2-1, PKR is overactivated, coherently with the role of the VTRNA2-1 that binds to PKR and inhibits its phosphorylation. The loss of the VTRNA2-1 natural restrain causes, in turn, the activation of CREB by PKR. We found CREB, a classical cAMP-inducible CRE-binding factor interacting with a region of the IL-6 promoter and leading to IL-6 production, overactivated both in IgAN and in TP-IgAN patients. Effectively, in the same patients, we found elevated levels of IL-6 correlating with CREB and PKR phosphorylation.

Since PKR is normally activated by bacterial and viral RNA we hypothesized that these microrganisms can further activate the PKR/CREB/IL-6 pathway leading to an excess of IL-6 production, explaining both the high levels of IL-6, both infection involvement in the disease, both cases of IgAN associated with COVID-19 infection and with COVID-19 RNA-vaccination, and recent data showing microbiota involvment in IgAN.

Effectively, we found that Effectively, we sfound that both the RNA poly(I:C) and the COVID-19 RNA-vaccine stimulation significantly increase the IL-6 levels in IgAN patient PBMCs.

The PKR/CREB/IL-6 pathway may be very important also in the setting of renal transplantation. We found that this pathway is upregulated also in IgAN transplanted patients. Recent studies showed that the cumulative risk of IgA nephropathy recurrence increases after transplant and is associated with a 3.7-fold greater risk of graft loss. Finally, we showed that the IL-6 secretion can be reduced by the PKR inhibitor imoxin.

In conclusion, the discovery of the upregulated VTRNA2-1/PKR/CREB/IL-6 pathway in IgAN patients may provide novel approach to treat the disease and may be useful for development of precision nephrology and personalized therapy, possibly by checking the VTRNA2-1 methylation level in IgAN patients. Detection of COVID-19 and age-dependent dysosmia with paired crushable odorant ampules BackgroundSigns of anosmia can help detect COVID-19 infection when testing for viral positivity is not available. Inexpensive mass-produced disposable olfactory sensitivity tests suitable for worldwide use might serve not only as a screening tool for potential infection but also to identify cases at elevated risk of severe disease as anosmic COVID-19 patients have a better prognosis.

Methods and FindingsWe adopted paired crushable ampules with two concentrations of a standard test odorant (n-butanol) as standard of care in several clinics as community prevalence of COVID-19 infection waxed and waned. This was not a clinical trial; a chart review was undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics and potential utility of the test device as RT-PCR testing became routine. The risk of anosmia was greater in COVID-19 patients. Olfactory sensitivity was concentration-dependent and decreased with aging. Hyposmia was detected across a wider age range than expected from the literature, and tests can be optimized to characterize different age groups.

Conclusionsn-Butanol at 0.32 and 3.2% in crushable ampules can be used to characterize olfactory function quickly and inexpensively and thus has potential benefits in pandemic screening, epidemiology, and clinical decision-making. Spatial Allocation of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) is an initiative led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other partners that aims for an equitable access of COVID-19 vaccines. Despite a potential heterogeneous disease burden across space, countries receiving allotments of vaccines via COVAX may want to follow WHOs allocation rule and distribute vaccines to their jurisdictions based on the jurisdictions relative population size. Utilizing economic-epidemiological modeling, we benchmark the performance of this ad hoc allocation rule by comparing it to the rule that minimizes the economic damages and expenditures over time, including a penalty cost representing the social costs of deviating from the ad hoc allocation. Under different levels of vaccine scarcity and different demographic characteristics, we consider scenarios where length of immunity and compliance to travel restrictions vary, and consider the robustness of the rules when assumptions regarding these factors are incorrect. The benefits from deviating are especially high when immunity is permanent, when there is compliance to travel restrictions, when the supply of vaccine is low, and when there is heterogeneity in demographic characteristics. Interestingly, a lack of compliance to travel restrictions pushes the optimal allocations of vaccine towards the ad hoc and improves the relative robustness of the ad hoc rule, as the mixing of the populations reduces the spatial heterogeneity in disease burden.

JEL ClassificationC61, H12, H84, I18, Q54 Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa IntroductionGlobally, there have been more than 404 million cases of SARS-CoV-2, with 5.8 million confirmed deaths, as of February 2022. South Africa has experienced four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, with the second, third, and fourth waves being driven by the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants, respectively. A key question with the emergence of new variants is the extent to which they are able to reinfect those who have had a prior natural infection.

RationaleWe developed two approaches to monitor routine epidemiological surveillance data to examine whether SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk has changed through time in South Africa, in the context of the emergence of the Beta (B.1.351), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variants. We analyze line list data on positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 with specimen receipt dates between 04 March 2020 and 31 January 2022, collected through South Africas National Notifiable Medical Conditions Surveillance System. Individuals having sequential positive tests at least 90 days apart were considered to have suspected reinfections. Our routine monitoring of reinfection risk included comparison of reinfection rates to the expectation under a null model (approach 1) and estimation of the time-varying hazards of infection and reinfection throughout the epidemic (approach 2) based on model-based reconstruction of the susceptible populations eligible for primary and second infections.

Results105,323 suspected reinfections were identified among 2,942,248 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days prior to 31 January 2022. The number of reinfections observed through the end of the third wave in September 2021 was consistent with the null model of no change in reinfection risk (approach 1). Although increases in the hazard of primary infection were observed following the introduction of both the Beta and Delta variants, no corresponding increase was observed in the reinfection hazard (approach 2). Contrary to expectation, the estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection was lower during waves driven by the Beta and Delta variants than for the first wave (relative hazard ratio for wave 2 versus wave 1: 0.71 (CI95: 0.60-0.85); for wave 3 versus wave 1: 0.54 (CI95: 0.45-0.64)). In contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient. The estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection versus wave 1 was 1.75 (CI95: 1.48-2.10) for the period of Omicron emergence (01 November 2021 to 30 November 2021) and 1.70 (CI95: 1.44-2.04) for wave 4 versus wave 1. Individuals with identified reinfections since 01 November 2021 had experienced primary infections in all three prior waves, and an increase in third infections has been detected since mid-November 2021. Many individuals experiencing third infections had second infections during the third (Delta) wave that ended in September 2021, strongly suggesting that these infections resulted from immune evasion rather than waning immunity.

ConclusionPopulation-level evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is associated with substantial ability to evade immunity from prior infection. In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants. This finding has important implications for public health planning, particularly in countries like South Africa with high rates of immunity from prior infection. Further development of methods to track reinfection risk during pathogen emergence, including refinements to assess the impact of waning immunity, account for vaccine-derived protection, and monitor the risk of multiple reinfections will be an important tool for future pandemic preparedness. A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for Enhancing the Prediction Power in Large Scale Population Studies: The ATHLOS Project The ATHLOS cohort is composed of several harmonized datasets of international cohorts related to health and aging. The healthy aging scale has been constructed based on a selection of particular variables from 16 individual studies. In this paper, we consider a selection of additional variables found in ATHLOS and investigate their utilization for predicting the healthy aging. For this purpose motivated by the datasets volume and diversity we focus our attention upon the clustering for prediction scheme, where unsupervised learning is utilized to enhance prediction power, showing the predictive utility of exploiting structure in the data by clustering. We show that imposed computation bottlenecks can be surpassed when using appropriate hierarchical clustering within a clustering for ensemble classification scheme while retaining prediction benefits. We propose a complete methodology which is evaluated against baseline methods and the original concept. The results are very encouraging suggesting further developments in this direction along with applications in tasks with similar characteristics. A strait-forward open source implementation is provided for the R project. Molecular analysis suggests oligoclonality and metastasis of endometriosis lesions across anatomically defined subtypes. Endometriosis symptoms are heterogeneous with controversy on whether it constitutes a single disease or multiple distinct types. Our previous work found recurrent somatic cancer-driver alterations in endometriosis; however, these have not been found ubiquitously. A handful of cases spread across studies also suggest mutations might be shared (clonal) between lesions of the same type. As current classification systems correlate poorly with symptoms or outcomes, somatic genomics may improve the current system. Here, we investigate heterogeneity of somatic cancer-driver mutations within patients and across endometriosis types. We examined anatomically distinct types of endometriosis (ovarian, deep infiltrating, and superficial endometriosis) in 27 individual patients all of whom had at least two types of endometriosis. Specimens were analyzed using high-sensitivity targeted sequencing with orthogonal validation from droplet digital PCR and mutation-surrogate immunohistochemistry. Results found 13/27 patients had informative somatic driver mutation in endometriosis, 9/13 had identical mutations across distinct lesions. Endometriomas tended to have a higher mutational complexity, with functionally redundant driver mutations in same gene and within the same lesions.

Our data are consistent with clonality across endometriosis lesions regardless of subtype. Further the finding of redundancy in mutations with the same gene and lesions is also consistent with endometriosis representing an oligoclonal disease with dissemination likely to consist of multiple epithelial clones travelling together. This suggests the current anatomically defined classification of endometriosis does not fully recognize the etiology of the disease. A novel classification should take into account genomic and other molecular features. These findings could further contribute to development of a more personalized endometriosis diagnosis and care. Lower Risk of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) with the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome (PIMS-TS, also known as MIS-C) typically occurs 2-6 weeks after exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Early estimates suggested a risk of PIMS-TS of 1 in 3-4000 infected children. Whether this risk is sustained with new SARS-CoV-2 variants remains unknown.

We utilised prospective data from the NHS South Thames Paediatric Network (STPN), which manages all cases of PIMS-TS amongst 1.5 million children in South-East England, to assess trends over time. We compared PIMS-TS cases with two independent SARS-CoV-2 infection datasets. We used publicly available UK Health Security Agency case numbers weighted to child population distributions according to area population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). To avoid bias due to evolving testing behaviour, we also compared PIMS-TS cases to community infection rates, obtained from the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey, which randomly selects individuals for fortnightly PCR tests. All three datasets were normalised to the peak of the Alpha wave, and plotted against time. PIMS-TS cases were plotted 40 days prior to hospitalisation, corresponding to the best fit of rising SARS-CoV-2 infection and PIMS-TS cases during the Alpha wave.

Compared with the Alpha wave, we found fewer cases of PIMS-TS relative to SARS-CoV-2 infections during both initial and subsequent Delta waves. This relative reduction continued into the Omicron wave.

Re-infection rates with the Alpha or Delta variants and vaccination rates were very low during the Delta wave. As a result, lower PIMS-TS rate relative to SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Delta wave is unlikely to be explained by population level immunity from prior infection or vaccination. It is most likely due to viral mutations in key antigenic epitopes responsible for triggering the hyperinflammatory response observed with PIMS-TS. Survey of Contaminated Percutaneous Injuries in Anesthesia Practitioners BackgroundAnesthesia practitioners are at inherent risk for percutaneous injuries by blood-contaminated needles and sharp objects. These exposures may result in transmission of HIV and hepatitis viruses. Data about this occupational hazard from contaminated needles and sharp devices is limited and decades old. We conducted a web-based survey to assess the occurrence, reporting, characteristics, and outcome of contaminated percutaneous injuries (CPI) in anesthesia residents, fellows, and attendings.

MethodsAfter institutional research board approval, an email was sent to 217 anesthesia practitioners requesting their participation in an online survey about contaminated percutaneous injuries. Responses were collected from February through March 2020. Results are reported as absolute numbers and proportions with 95% confidence interval (CI).

ResultsThe overall survey response rate was 51% (110/217). 59% (65/110) (95% CI, 50-68) of participants reported having one or more contaminated percutaneous injury during their years of anesthesia practice (42% (21/50) of residents, 50% (4/8) of fellows, 77% (40/52) of anesthesia attendings). Prevalence of injuries related to attendings years of anesthesia practice was 69% (95% CI, 44-94) for 5-10 years, 62.5% (95% CI, 29-96) for 10-15 years, and 79% (95% CI, 63- 95) for greater than 15 years of practice.

35% (95% CI, 26-44) of participants reported having one or more CPI within the last 5 years (40% of residents, 50% of fellows, 29% of attendings). Occurrence of CPI within the last 5 years based on attending anesthesiologist years of practice was 57% for less than 5 years, 37.5% for 10-15 years, and 20% for 15-20 years of practice. 75% (95% CI, 65-85) reported the incident at the time of injury. 59% (95% CI, 48-70) of injuries were due to hollow bore needles. 50% (95% CI, 39-61) of total injuries were high risk. 26% of injured anesthesia practitioners received post-exposure prophylaxis and there were zero seroconversions.

ConclusionMost anesthesiologists will sustain a contaminated percutaneous injury during their careers. Incidence of these injuries decreases with years of practice. Occurrence of these injuries is high among anesthesia residents, with the majority reporting their injuries. Half of the injuries are high risk with a quarter requiring postexposure prophylaxis. More education and interventions are needed to reduce percutaneous injuries and improve reporting. Substance Use Onset in High-Risk 9-13 Year-Olds in the ABCD Study AimA key aim of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study is to document substance use onset, patterns, and sequelae across adolescent development. However, substance use misreporting obscures accurate drug use characterization. Hair toxicology tests provide objective historical substance use data, but are rarely investigated in youth. Here, we compare objective hair toxicology results with self-reported substance use in youth.

MethodsA literature-based substance use risk algorithm identified 696 ABCD Study(R) participants for hair sample collections between baseline and 2-year follow-up (spanning ages 9-13) for laboratory analysis. Chi-square and t-tests assessed differences between participants demographics, positive and negative hair tests, risk algorithm scores, and self-reported substance use.

ResultsHair testing confirmed that 17% of at-risk 9-13 year-olds had evidence of past 3-month use of one (n=99), two (n=17), three (n=3), or four (n=2) drug classes. After considering prescribed medication use, 11% had a positive test incongruent with self- or parent-report. No participant with a positive result self-reported substance use consistent with their toxicology results. Participants with positive tests under-reported use (p<.001), reported less sipping of alcohol (p<.001), and scored higher on the risk algorithm (p<.001) than those with negative hair toxicology.

ConclusionsAn alarming 11% of tested samples in at-risk 9-13 year-olds were positive for at least one unreported substance, suggesting underreporting in this population when participating in a national healthy development study. The degree of underreporting cannot yet be calculated, as at-risk samples were prioritized for assays. Expanded toxicology testing is key to characterize substance use in youth. Distinct temporal characteristics of circulating alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury markers in ARDS with COVID-19: a preliminary retrospective report The time course and specific contributions of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury to the pathogenesis of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the characteristics of circulating markers of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury in serum samples from eleven ARDS patients and ten non-ARDS patients, all with COVID-19. Our results indicates that the alveolar epithelial injury at the very early disease stage and the endothelial injury which continues to exacerbate during the later disease stage seem to be the hallmarks of ARDS with COVID-19. Comparison of in-hospital mortality and clinical outcomes among patients greater than and less than 80 years undergoing TAVR BackgroundTranscatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedure has been increasingly utilized in the management of aortic stenosis in the elderly. We sought to assess the hospital outcomes and major adverse events of TAVR in patients [&ge;]80 years old compared to those <80 years.

MethodsWe performed a retrospective observational study using the National Inpatient Sample - 2018. We divided TAVR patients into two cohorts based on age being [&ge;]80 years and <80 years old. The primary outcomes were the comparison of in-hospital mortality and major adverse events (MAE) in the cohorts.

ResultsWe identified 63,630 patients who underwent TAVR procedures from January 1 to December 31, 2018. Among them, 35, 115(55%) were [&ge;]80 years and 28,515(45%) were <80 years of age. There was a higher rate of post-procedure in-hospital mortality rate in patients [&ge;]80 years (1.6% vs. 1.1%, aOR=1.56, [CI 1.13 -2.16], p=0.006). They also had higher rates of pacemaker insertion compared to those <80 years old (7.4 vs 6.5%, aOR=1.17 [CI 1-1.35], p=0.03). On subgroup analysis, the rates of MAE were not different between the two cohorts (23.8 vs 23.4, p=0.09) but patients [&ge;]80 years who experienced MAE had higher in-hospital mortality (5.7 vs 4.3%, aOR=1.58 [CI=1.08-2.32], p=0.01) and shorter length of hospital stay (7.2 vs 8.7 days, p=0.03) compared to those <80. Anemia, liver disease, chronic kidney disease and previous stroke were associated with higher odds of in-hospital MAE in both groups.

ConclusionThis study shows that in patients undergoing TAVR, those [&ge;]80 years old had higher in-hospital mortality and higher rates of pacemaker insertion compared to those < 80 years. The rates of MAE were not significantly different between the two groups. Convergence of Comorbidity and COVID-19 Infection to Fatality: An Investigation Based on Concurrent Health Status Evaluation among Older Adults ObjectiveTo investigate the impact of age, comorbidity, and vaccination in the fatality of older COVID-19 patients in the state of Kerala, India, based on their comorbidity and vaccination status.

MethodsIt is a cross sectional study adopting a mixed method approach conducted among the older population in Kerala. To study the health profile, 405 older people were surveyed, and 102 people were interviewed in-depth at their households, between June to November 2020. The results of the study were triangulated with elderly COVID-19 fatality data, available from the citizen-science dashboards of the research team and Department of Health, Kerala. Vaccination data was retrieved from cowin.gov.in to study its impact. The data was analysed using the IBM SPSS version 22.0.

ResultsAge is a predictor of COVID-19 fatality. Diabetes, hypertension, heart diseases, CKD and COPD are the significant predictors of elderly COVID-19 fatality. The current comorbidity profile of the total older population matches with the comorbidities of the COVID-19 elderly death cases. Vaccination has impacted COVID-19 mortality after vaccinating 65 percent (first dose) of the elderly.

ConclusionsAge and comorbidities can predict potential fatality among older COVID-19 patients. Timely and accurate health data and better knowledge of high-risk factors such as comorbidity can easily guide the healthcare system and authorities to efficient prevention and treatment methodologies. Knowledge on prevailing NCDs can drive early preparedness before it converges with an epidemic like the present zoonotic disease. Priority must be given for elderly vaccination to bring down the mortality rates. "What do you mean I can't have a doctor? This is Canada!" - A Qualitative Study of the Myriad Consequences for Unattached Patients Awaiting Primary Care Attachment BackgroundPatient access to primary healthcare (PHC) is the foundation of a strong healthcare system and healthy populations. Attachment to a regular PHC provider, a key to healthcare access, has seen a decline in some jurisdictions. This study explored the consequences of unattachment from a patient perspective, an under-studied phenomenon to date.

MethodsA realist-informed qualitative study was conducted with unattached patients in Nova Scotia, Canada. Semi-structured interviews with nine participants were conducted and transcribed for analysis. The framework method was used to carry out analysis, which was guided by Donabedians model of assessing healthcare access and quality.

ResultsFive key findings were noted in this study: 1) Participants experienced a range of consequences from not having a regular PHC provider. Participants used creative strategies to 2) attempt to gain attachment to a regular PHC provider, and, to 3) address their health needs in the absence of a regular PHC provider. 4) Participants experienced negative feelings about themselves and the healthcare system, and 5) stress related to the consequences and added work of being unattached and lost care.

ConclusionsUnattached patients experienced a burden of care related to lost care and managing their own health and related information, due to the download of medical record management and system navigation to them. These findings may underestimate the consequences for further at-risk populations who would not have been included in our recruitment. This may result in poorer health outcomes, which could be mitigated by interventions at the structural level, such as enhanced centralized waitlists to promote attachment. Such waitlists may benefit from a triage approach to appropriately attach patients based on need. Deceased donor kidney degradomics indicates cytoskeletal proteolytic alterations impacting post-transplant function. BackgroundIn brain death, cerebral injury contributes to systemic biological dysregulation, causing significant cellular stress in donor kidneys that adversely impacts the quality of grafts. Here, we hypothesized that DBD kidneys may undergo proteolytic processes that renders grafts susceptible to post-transplant dysfunction.

Material & MethodsUsing mass spectrometry and immunoblotting analyses, we profiled degradation patterns of cytoskeletal proteins in deceased (n=55) and living (n=10) donor kidneys.

ResultsWe found that in DBD kidneys, key podocyte cytoskeletal proteins had been proteolytically cleaved. Generated degradation profiles were not associated to donor related demographic and clinical factors but were associated to suboptimal post-transplant function. Strikingly, -actinin -4 and Talin-1 degradation profiles were not observed in circulatory-death or living-donor kidneys. As Talin-1 is a specific proteolytic target of Calpain-1, we investigated a potential trigger of Calpain activation and Talin-1 degradation using ex-vivo precision-cut human kidney slices and in-vitro immortalised human podocytes. Notably, we found that Transforming-Growth Factor-{beta} (TGF-{beta}) activated Calpain-1 and proteolytically cleaved Talin-1 to generate distinct peptide fragments. These peptide fragments were of similar size and matched the degradation patterns observed in DBD kidneys. Talin-1 degradation was prevented in vitro by Calpain-1 inhibition.

ConclusionsHere, we provide initial evidence that DBD kidneys are susceptible to cytoskeletal protein degradation that impacts posttransplant kidney function. Subsequent studies should aim to further investigate the link between brain death and activation of proteolytic pathways exploring new therapeutic opportunities. I wanna live and not think about the future; What place for advance care planning for people living with severe multiple sclerosis and their families? A qualitative study BackgroundLittle is known about how people with multiple sclerosis and their families comprehend advance care planning (ACP) and its relevance in their lives.

AimTo explore under what situations, with whom, how, and why do people with MS and their families engage in ACP

MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with people living with MS and their families followed by an ethical discussion group with five health professionals representing specialties working with people affected by MS and their families. Twenty-seven people with MS and 17 family members were interviewed between June 2019 and March 2020. Interviews and the ethical discussion group were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using the framework approach.

ResultsParticipants narratives focused on three major themes :(i) planning for an uncertain future; (ii) perceived obstacles to engaging in ACP that included uncertainty concerning MS disease progression, negative previous experiences of ACP discussions and prioritising symptom management over future planning; (iii) Preferences for engagement in ACP included a trusting relationship with a health professional and that information then be shared across services. Health professionals accounts from the ethical discussion group departed from viewing ACP as a formal document to that of an ongoing process of seeking preferences and values. They voiced similar concerns to people with MS about uncertainty and when to initiate discussions. Some shared concerns of a lack of confidence when having ACP discussions.

ConclusionThese findings support the need for a whole systems strategic approach where information about the potential benefits of ACP in all its forms can be shared with people with MS. Moreover, they highlight the need for health professionals to be skilled and trained in engaging in ACP discussions and where information is contemporaneously and seamlessly shared across services. Decision curve analysis to identify optimal candidates of liver resection for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma with hepatitis B cirrhosis：A cohort study BackgroundThe selection criterion for liver resection (LR) in intermediate-stage (IM) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. This study aims to compare LR and transarterial chemoembolization in the range of predicted death risk

MethodsThe multivariable Cox regression model (MVR) was estimated to predict mortality at 5yr. The cut-off values were determined by a two-piece-wise linear regression model, decision curve analysis with MVR model, and hazard ratio curve for treatment plotted against the predicted mortality.

Results825 IM-HCC with hepatitis B cirrhosis were included for analysis (TACE, n=622; LR, n=203). The 5-yr overall survival rate of LR patients was higher than the TACE group (52.8% vs. 20.8%; P<0.0001). The line of LR and TACE were crossing with predicted death risk at 100% (P for interaction =0.008). The benefit of LR versus TACE decreased progressively as predicted death risk>0.55 (95%CI: 0.45,0.62). When predicted death risk over 0.7, decision curve analysis suggested that LR and TACE did not increase net benefit. Patients were then divided into four subgroups by the cut-off values (<0.45, 0.45[&ge;] /<0.62, 0.62[&ge;] /<0.7, [&ge;] 0.7). The stratified analysis of treatment in different subgroups, hazard ratios were 0.39 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.56), 0.36 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.56), 0.51 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.98), and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.80), respectively.

ConclusionsLR reached the maximal relative utility in the interval of 0.45 to 0.62, and both LR and TACE did not increase net benefit at the 5-yr death risk over 0.7. Hepatic resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for the intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma：A cohort study BackgroundThe selection criterion for hepatic resection(HR) in intermediate-stage(IM) hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) is still controversial. We used real-world data to evaluate the overall survival (OS) treated with HR or TACE.

MethodsIn all, 942 patients with IM-HCC were categorized in HR and TACE groups. OS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards models, and propensity score- matched (PSM) analyses. The smooth curve was performed through the generalized additive model. The interaction test was performed to evaluate the HR impact on OS concerning risk factors. Also, we used multiple imputation to deal with the missing data.

ResultsTotally, 23.0% (n=225) of patients received HR. At a median overall survival of 23.7 months, HR was associated with the improved OS on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95%CI: 0.35, 0.58; after PSM: 0.56; 95%CI: 0.41, 0.77). Landmark analyses limited to long-term survivors of [&ge;] 6 months, [&ge;] 1, and [&ge;] 2 years demonstrated better OS with HR in all subsets (all P<0.05). After PSM analysis, however, HR increased 20% risk of death (HR, 1.20; 95%CI: 0.67, 2.15) in the subgroup of LDH [&le;]192 U/L (P for interaction = 0.037). Furthermore, the significant interaction was robust between the LDH and the HR with respect to 1-, 3-, and 5-year observed survival rate (all P<0.05).

ConclusionHepatic resection was superior to TACE for intermediate-stage HCC in the range of LDH level > 192 U/L. Moreover, TACE might be suitable for patients with LDH level [&le;] 192 U/L.

SynopsisO_LIHepatectomy was superior to TACE for BCLC-B HCC.
C_LIO_LIHepatectomy increased 20% risk of death for LDH < 192 U/L after matching.
C_LIO_LIA significant interaction was robust between LDH and with respect to hepatectomy the 1-, 3-, and 5-year observed survival rate.
C_LI Pausing methotrexate improves immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccination in elderly patients with rheumatic diseases ObjectiveTo study the effect of methotrexate (MTX) and its discontinuation on the humoral immune response after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD).

MethodsNeutralising SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured after second vaccination in 64 rheumatic patients on methotrexate therapy, 31 of whom temporarily paused medication without a fixed regimen. The control group consisted of 21 AIRD patients without immunosuppressive medication.

ResultsMTX patients showed a significantly lower median antibody response compared to AIRD patients without immunosuppressive therapy (p< 0.001). Young age (<60 years) and MTX-hold after vaccination were found to be the main factors influencing antibody response after vaccination, while BMI or MTX dose demonstrated no effect. For patients taking MTX, age correlated negatively with immune response (r=-0.49; p<0.001) and all patients with antibody levels (14 %) below the cut-off were older than 60 years. Patients who held MTX during at least one vaccination showed significantly higher median neutralising antibody levels after second vaccination, compared to patients who continued MTX therapy during both vaccinations (68.82 %, 92.73 %, p=<0.001). This effect was particularly pronounced in patients older than 60 years (p=0.0016). The impact of the time period after vaccination was greater than of the time before vaccination with the critical cut-off being 10 days.

ConclusionMTX reduces the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in an age-dependent manner. Our data further suggest that holding MTX for at least 10 days after vaccination significantly improves the antibody response in patients over 60 years of age. Knee-extensor strength, symptoms, and need for surgery after two, four, or six exercise sessions/week using a home-based one-exercise program: A randomized dose-response trial of knee-extensor resistance exercise in patients eligible for knee replacement (the QUADX-1 trial). ObjectiveTo investigate firstly the efficacy of three different dosages of one home-based, knee-extensor resistance exercise on knee-extensor strength in patients eligible for knee replacement, and secondly, the influence of exercise on symptoms, physical function and decision on surgery.

MethodOne-hundred and forty patients eligible for knee replacement were randomized to three groups: 2, 4 or 6 home-based knee-extensor resistance exercise-sessions per week (group 2, 4 and 6 respectively) for 12 weeks. Primary outcome: isometric knee-extensor strength. Secondary outcomes: Oxford Knee Score, Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, average knee pain last week (0-10 numeric rating scale), 6-minute walk test, stair climbing test, exercise adherence and "need for surgery".

ResultsPrimary analysis: Intention-to-treat analysis of 140 patients did not find statistically significant differences between the groups from baseline to after 12 weeks of exercise in isometric knee-extensor strength: Group 2 vs. 4 (0.003 Nm/kg (0.2%) [95% CI -0.15 to 0.15], P=0.965) and group 4 vs. 6 (-0.04 Nm/kg (-2.7%) [95% CI -0.15 to 0.12], P=0.628). Secondary analysis: Intention-to-treat analyses showed statistically significant differences between the two and six sessions/week groups in favor of the two sessions/week group for Oxford Knee Score: 4.8 OKS points (15.2%) [1.3 to 8.3], P=0.008) and avg. knee pain last week (NRS 0-10): - 1.3 NRS points (-19.5%) [-2.3 to -0.2], P=0.018. After the 12-week exercise intervention, data were available for 117 patients (N=39/group): 38 (32.5%) patients wanted surgery and 79 (67.5%) postponed surgery. This was independent of exercise dosage.

ConclusionIn patients eligible for knee-replacement we found no between-group differences in isometric knee extensor strength after 2, 4 and 6 knee-extensor resistance exercise sessions per week. We saw no indication of an exercise dose-response relationship for isometric knee-extensor strength and only clinically irrelevant within group changes. For some secondary outcome (e.g. KOOS subscales) we found clinically relevant within group changes, which could help explain why only one in three patients decided to have surgery after the simple home-based exercise intervention.

Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02931058. Preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.07.21254965. Background rates of five thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndromes of special interest for COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance: incidence between 2017 and 2019 and patient profiles from 25.4 million people in six European countries BackgroundThrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) has been reported among individuals vaccinated with adenovirus-vectored COVID-19 vaccines. In this study we describe the background incidence of TTS in 6 European countries.

MethodsElectronic medical records from France, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom informed the study. Incidence rates of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and stroke, all with concurrent thrombocytopenia, were estimated among the general population between 2017 to 2019. A range of additional adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccinations were also studied in a similar manner.

FindingsA total of 25,432,658 individuals were included. Background rates ranged from 1.0 (0.7 to 1.4) to 8.5 (7.4 to 9.9) per 100,000 person-years for DVT with thrombocytopenia, from 0.5 (0.3 to 0.6) to 20.8 (18.9 to 22.8) for PE with thrombocytopenia, from 0.1 (0.0 to 0.1) to 2.5 (2.2 to 2.7) for SVT with thrombocytopenia, and from 0.2 (0.0 to 0.4) to 30.9 (28.6 to 33.3) for stroke with thrombocytopenia. CVST with thrombocytopenia was only identified in one database, with incidence rate of 0.1 (0.1 to 0.2) per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of TTS increased with age, with those affected typically having more comorbidities and greater medication use than the general population. TTS was also more often seen in men than women. A sizeable proportion of those affected were seen to have been taking antithrombotic and anticoagulant therapies prior to their TTS event.

InterpretationAlthough rates vary across databases, TTS has consistently been seen to be a very rare event among the general population. While still very rare, rates of TTS are typically higher among older individuals, and those affected were also seen to generally be male and have more comorbidities and greater medication use than the general population.

FundingThis study was funded by the European Medicines Agency (EMA/2017/09/PE Lot 3).