Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2; a prospective longitudinal study showing higher viral load and transmissibility of the Alpha variant compared to previous strains ObjectivesWe studied the secondary attack rate (SAR), risk factors, and precautionary practices of household transmission in a prospective, longitudinal study. We further compared transmission between the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant and non-Variant of Concern (non-VOC) viruses.

MethodsWe recruited households of 70 confirmed COVID-19 cases with 146 household contacts from May 2020 to May 2021. Participants donated biological samples 8 times over 6 weeks and answered questionnaires. Whole genome sequencing and droplet digital PCR were used to establish the SARS-CoV-2 variant and viral load.

ResultsSARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred in 60% of the households, and the overall SAR for household contacts was 50%. The SAR was significantly higher for the Alpha variant (78%) compared with non-VOC viruses (43%) and was associated with a higher viral load. SAR was higher in household contacts aged [&ge;]40 years (69%) than in younger contacts (40-47%), and for contacts of cases with loss of taste/smell. Children had lower viral loads and were more often asymptomatic than adults. Sleeping separately from the primary case reduced the risk of transmission.

ConclusionsWe found substantial household transmission, particularly for the Alpha variant. Precautionary practices seem to reduce SAR, but preventing household transmission may become difficult with more contagious variants.
Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic BackgroundNumerous countries imposed strict travel restrictions, contributing to the large socioeconomic burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long quarantines that apply to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.

MethodsWe developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."

FindingsWe present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.

InterpretationFor nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.

FundingEasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).

Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSEvidence from early in the pandemic indicates that border closures at the epicentre slowed global dissemination of COVID-19. As community transmission became established in many nations, studies have suggested that the benefit of strict border closures in mitigating the transmission of disease from travellers diminished. Research for community settings has shown that testing later during quarantine, rather than upon entry into quarantine, can substantially shorten the duration of quarantine needed to reduce post-quarantine transmission. In particular for international air travellers, a 14-day quarantine can effectively be shortened to five or seven days. The number of infectious COVID-19 cases that escape from these quarantines depends on the prevalence of disease in the country the traveller originated as well as the travel volume into the country.

Added value of this studyWe developed a framework to identify quarantine and testing strategies that enable travel from specific origins without increasing their infection rates per capita within destinations. No prior study has evaluated the appropriate duration of quarantine necessary to prevent any rise in infection rates per capita in the destination countries as a result of travel. By accounting for prevalence, daily incidence, vaccine coverage, immunity, age demographics, and travel flow between countries, we quantified the contribution of travel towards within-country the imminent infections in the destination country under different quarantine and testing strategies. For travel between 26 European countries, our results for the pandemic situation observed on November 21, 2021 demonstrate that there are often less burdensome quarantine and testing strategies that can serve as effective alternatives to strict border closure. Specifically, these estimated sufficient quarantine durations are especially dependent on COVID-19 prevalence and immunity within the two countries. We also found that asymmetry in the travel flow, just not the volume of travel flow, can also influence the estimated sufficient quarantine durations. Using data on variants of concern, including Omicron, we found that the adequacy of a border control strategy to limit variant spread depends strongly on the geographical distribution of the variant. While our results pertain to European countries, we also provide an interactive spreadsheet that can be used to determine appropriate quarantine durations between any two countries. Moreover, our framework can also be applied at any spatial or population scale within which movement restrictions could feasibly be implemented.

Implications of all available evidenceTravel quarantine and testing strategies can effectively mitigate importation and onward transmission within a country. Identifying sufficient strategies can allow countries to permit travel to and from other countries, without risking a short-term increase in infection rates. As long as the community transmission is occurring, the long-term epidemic trend within the destination country is more apt to be determined by other disease control measures, e.g., contact tracing, vaccination, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Together, travel quarantine and other related control measures can mitigate the risk of transmission between countries, limiting the threat of variants of concern.
Xenobiotic tracers uncover the gastrointestinal passage, intestinal epithelial cellular uptake and Ago2 loading of milk miRNAs in neonates BackgroundExclusive breastfeeding is the best source of nutrition for most infants, but it is not always possible. Enteral nutrition influences intestinal gene regulation and the susceptibility for inflammatory bowel disorders, such as necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). In modern neonatology it is observed that lactase activity increases during intestinal maturation, but formula-fed infants exhibit lower activity levels than milk-fed infants.

ObjectiveWe interrogate the transmissibility of milk miRNAs, since human breast milk has a high miRNA content in comparison to other body fluids. Our data contribute to the controversial discussion whether milk miRNAs could influence gene regulation in term and preterm neonates and thus might vertically transmit developmental relevant signals.

DesignFollowing their cross-species profiling via miRNA deep-sequencing we utilized dietary xenobiotic taxon-specific milk miRNA as tracers in human and porcine neonates, followed by functional studies in primary human fetal intestinal epithelial cells (HIEC-6) using Ad5-mediated miRNA-gene transfer.

ResultsWe show that mammals have in common many milk miRNAs yet exhibit taxon-specific miRNA fingerprints. We traced intact bovine-specific miRNAs from formula-nutrition in human preterm stool and 9 days after the onset of enteral feeding in intestinal cells of preterm piglets. Few hours after introducing enteral feeding in preterm piglets with supplemented reporter miRNAs (cel-miR-39-5p/-3p), we observed enrichment of the xenobiotic cel-miR in blood serum and in Ago2-immunocomplexes from intestinal biopsies. In contrast, we did not observe xenobiotic miRNAs in neonatal porcine cerebrospinal fluid.

ConclusionsTaken together, our data point to a transmissibility of milk miRNA signals, which could be relevant at least for intestinal maturation. Ad5-based miRNA-gene transfer into HIEC-6 revealed putative milk miRNA targets on the protein and transcriptome levels. Results suggest that milk miRNAs could influence gene expression in intestinal epithelia of neonates under special conditions.

Graphical abstract

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org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8e0435org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1b6747corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1998821org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b84a04_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP  M_FIG C_FIG It is already known that exclusive breastfeeding is the best source of nutrition for neonates.Human breast milk has a high miRNA content in comparison to other body fluids. It is controversially discussed whether they could influence gene regulation in term and preterm neonates and thus might vertically transmit developmental relevant signals. Here, we contribute important new findings: Mammals have in common a significant number of milk miRNAs yet exhibit taxon-specific fingerprints. These differences allowed us to exploit xenobiotic miRNAs as tracers in human preterm neonates, who routinely received formula-supplemented nutrition in addition to breast milk. Tracer miRNAs survived the gastrointestinal (GI) transit in human preterm neonates. In a preterm piglet model the reporter miRNA did not only survive GI transit, but accumulated in the bloodstream few hours post-feeding. Moreover, we show that, cel-mir-39-5p and cel-miR-39-3p became loaded to Ago2 in intestinal tissue samples, which is prerequisite for milk microRNAs biological relevance. Adenovirus type 5-based miRNA-gene transfer into HIEC-6 allowed us to examine predicted bovine milk miRNA targets on the protein and transcriptome levels. Prime hAd5 Spike plus Nucleocapsid Vaccination Induces Ten-Fold Increases in Mean T-Cell Responses in Phase 1 Subjects that are Sustained Against Spike Variants In response to the need for a safe, efficacious vaccine that elicits vigorous T cell as well as humoral protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, we have developed a dual-antigen COVID-19 vaccine comprising both the viral spike (S) protein modified to increase cell-surface expression (S-Fusion) and nucleocapsid (N) protein with an Enhanced T-cell Stimulation Domain (N-ETSD) to enhance MHC class I and II presentation and T-cell responses. The antigens are delivered using a human adenovirus serotype 5 (hAd5) platform with E1, E2b, and E3 regions deleted that has been shown previously in cancer vaccine studies to be safe and effective in the presence of pre-existing hAd5 immunity. The findings reported here are focused on human T-cell responses due to the likelihood that such responses will sustain efficacy against emerging variants, a hypothesis supported by our in silico prediction of T-cell epitope HLA binding for both the first-wave SARS-CoV-2  A strain and the B.1.351 strain K417N, E484K, and N501Y spike and T201I N variants. We demonstrate the hAd5 S-Fusion + N-ETSD vaccine antigens expressed by previously SARS-CoV-2-infected patient dendritic cells elicit Th1 dominant activation of autologous patient T cells, indicating the vaccine antigens have the potential to elicit immune responses in previously infected patients. For participants in our open-label Phase 1b study of the vaccine (NCT04591717; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04591717), the magnitude of Th-1 dominant S- and N-specific T-cell responses after a single prime subcutaneous injection were comparable to T-cell responses from previously infected patients. Furthermore, vaccinated participant T-cell responses to S were similar for A strain S and a series of spike variant peptides, including S variants in the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 strains. The findings that this dual-antigen vaccine elicits SARS-CoV-2-relevant T-cell responses and that such cell-mediated protection is likely to be sustained against emerging variants supports the testing of this vaccine as a universal booster that would enhance and broaden existing immune protection conferred by currently approved S-based vaccines. Social support & sustained physical activity during the COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 lockdown introduced substantial barriers to physical activity, providing a unique  natural experiment to understand the social factors associated with sustained physical activity.

ObjectivesThe objectives of this study were to identify the proportion of people who successfully sustained physical activity during lockdown and to explore whether social support, loneliness and social isolation were associated with maintenance of physical activity during COVID-19 lockdown

MethodLongitudinal data from the COVID-19 Social Study was used to identify a sample of participants who maintained their physical activity despite lockdown.

Results16% were consistently active while 44% were completely inactive. After adjustment for multiple confounders high social support was associated with a 39% (95% CI, 12-74%) increased odds of sustaining physical activity. Associations between physical activity and loneliness and social isolation were not found.

ConclusionThis study supports previous research showing the importance of social support for the long-term maintenance of physical activity behaviour but shows that such effects extend to contexts of social restrictions. I wanna live and not think about the future; What place for advance care planning for people living with severe multiple sclerosis and their families? A qualitative study BackgroundLittle is known about how people with multiple sclerosis and their families comprehend advance care planning (ACP) and its relevance in their lives.

AimTo explore under what situations, with whom, how, and why do people with MS and their families engage in ACP

MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with people living with MS and their families followed by an ethical discussion group with five health professionals representing specialties working with people affected by MS and their families. Twenty-seven people with MS and 17 family members were interviewed between June 2019 and March 2020. Interviews and the ethical discussion group were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using the framework approach.

ResultsParticipants narratives focused on three major themes :(i) planning for an uncertain future; (ii) perceived obstacles to engaging in ACP that included uncertainty concerning MS disease progression, negative previous experiences of ACP discussions and prioritising symptom management over future planning; (iii) Preferences for engagement in ACP included a trusting relationship with a health professional and that information then be shared across services. Health professionals accounts from the ethical discussion group departed from viewing ACP as a formal document to that of an ongoing process of seeking preferences and values. They voiced similar concerns to people with MS about uncertainty and when to initiate discussions. Some shared concerns of a lack of confidence when having ACP discussions.

ConclusionThese findings support the need for a whole systems strategic approach where information about the potential benefits of ACP in all its forms can be shared with people with MS. Moreover, they highlight the need for health professionals to be skilled and trained in engaging in ACP discussions and where information is contemporaneously and seamlessly shared across services. Trajectory of Growth of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Houston, Texas, January through May 2021 Based on 12,476 Genome Sequences Genetic variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are of substantial concern because they can detrimentally alter the pandemic course and disease features in individual patients. Here we report SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 12,476 patients in the Houston Methodist healthcare system diagnosed from January 1, 2021 through May 31, 2021. The SARS-CoV-2 variant designated U.K. B.1.1.7 increased rapidly and caused 63%-90% of all new cases in the Houston area in the latter half of May. Eleven of the 3,276 B.1.1.7 genomes had an E484K change in spike protein. Compared with non-B.1.1.7 patients, individuals with B.1.1.7 had a significantly lower cycle threshold value (a proxy for higher virus load) and significantly higher rate of hospitalization. Other variants (e.g., B.1.429, B.1.427, P.1, P.2, and R.1) also increased rapidly, although the magnitude was less than for B.1.1.7. We identified 22 patients infected with B.1.617 "India" variants; these patients had a high rate of hospitalization. Vaccine breakthrough cases (n=207) were caused by a heterogeneous array of virus genotypes, including many that are not variants of interest or concern. In the aggregate, our study delineates the trajectory of concerning SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in a major metropolitan area, documents B.1.1.7 as the major cause of new cases in Houston, and heralds the arrival and spread of B.1.617 variants in the metroplex. Distinct time courses and pathogenic contributions of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury in acute respiratory distress syndrome with COVID-19: evidence from circulating biomarkers The time course and specific contributions of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury to the pathogenesis of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the characteristics of circulating markers of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury in serum samples from eleven ARDS patients and ten non-ARDS patients, all with COVID-19. Our results indicates that the alveolar epithelial injury at the very early disease stage and the endothelial injury which continues to exacerbate during the later disease stage seem to be the hallmarks of ARDS with COVID-19. Substance Use Onset in High-Risk 9-13 Year-Olds in the ABCD Study AimA key aim of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study is to document substance use onset, patterns, and sequelae across adolescent development. However, substance use misreporting obscures accurate drug use characterization. Hair toxicology tests provide objective historical substance use data, but are rarely investigated in youth. Here, we compare objective hair toxicology results with self-reported substance use in youth.

MethodsA literature-based substance use risk algorithm identified 696 ABCD Study(R) participants for hair sample collections between baseline and 2-year follow-up (spanning ages 9-13) for laboratory analysis. Chi-square and t-tests assessed differences between participants demographics, positive and negative hair tests, risk algorithm scores, and self-reported substance use.

ResultsHair testing confirmed that 17% of at-risk 9-13 year-olds had evidence of past 3-month use of one (n=99), two (n=17), three (n=3), or four (n=2) drug classes. After considering prescribed medication use, 11% had a positive test incongruent with self- or parent-report. No participant with a positive result self-reported substance use consistent with their toxicology results. Participants with positive tests under-reported use (p<.001), reported less sipping of alcohol (p<.001), and scored higher on the risk algorithm (p<.001) than those with negative hair toxicology.

ConclusionsAn alarming 11% of tested samples in at-risk 9-13 year-olds were positive for at least one unreported substance, suggesting underreporting in this population when participating in a national healthy development study. The degree of underreporting cannot yet be calculated, as at-risk samples were prioritized for assays. Expanded toxicology testing is key to characterize substance use in youth. A blood-based miRNA signature with prognostic value for overall survival in advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer treated with immunotherapy Immunotherapies have recently gained traction as highly effective therapies in a subset of late-stage cancers. Unfortunately, only a minority of patients experience the remarkable benefits of immunotherapies, whilst others fail to respond or even come to harm through immune related adverse events. For immunotherapies within the PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitor class, patient stratification is currently performed using tumor (tissue-based) PD-L1 expression. However, PD-L1 is an accurate predictor of response in only [~]30% of cases. There is pressing need for more accurate biomarkers for immunotherapy response prediction.

We sought to identify peripheral blood biomarkers, predictive of response to immunotherapies against lung cancer, based on whole blood microRNA profiling. Using three well characterized cohorts consisting of a total of 334 stage IV NSCLC patients, we have defined a 5 microRNA risk score (miRisk) that is predictive of overall survival following immunotherapy in training and independent validation (HR 2.40, 95% CI 1.37-4.19; P < 0.01) cohorts. We have traced the signature to a myeloid origin and performed miRNA target prediction to make a direct mechanistic link to the PD-L1 signalling pathway and PD-L1 itself. The miRisk score offers a potential blood-based companion diagnostic for immunotherapy that outperforms tissue-based PD-L1 staining. EDUCATIONAL NEEDS OF MEDICAL PRACTITIONERS ABOUT MEDICAL BILLING: A SCOPING REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE. IntroductionThe World Health Organization has suggested the solution to health system waste caused by incorrect billing and fraud is policing and prosecution. However, a growing body of evidence suggests leakage may not always be fraudulent or corrupt, with researchers suggesting medical practitioners may sometimes struggle to understand increasingly complex legal requirements around health financing and billing transactions, which may be improved through education. To explore this phenomenon further, we undertook a scoping review of the literature to identify the medical billing education needs of medical practitioners and whether those needs are being met.

MethodsEligible records included English language materials published between 1 January 2000 and 4 May 2020. Searches were conducted on MEDLINE, PubMed, Google Scholar, CINAHL, LexisNexis and Heinonline.

ResultsWe identified 74 records as directly relevant to the search criteria. Despite undertaking a comprehensive, English language search, with no country restrictions, studies meeting the inclusion criteria were limited to three countries (Australia, Canada, U.S), indicating a need for further work internationally. The literature suggests the education needs of medical practitioners in relation to medical billing compliance are not being met and medical practitioners desire more education on this topic. Evidence suggests education may be effective in improving medical billing compliance and reducing waste in health systems. There is broad agreement amongst medical education stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions that medical billing should be viewed as a core competency of medical education, though there is an apparent inertia to include this competency in medical education curricula. Penalties for non-compliant medical billing are serious and medical practitioners are at risk of random audits and investigations for breaches of sometimes incomprehensible, and highly interpretive regulations they may never have been taught.

ConclusionDespite acknowledged significance of waste in health systems due to poor practitioner knowledge of billing practices, there has been very little research to date on education interventions to improve health system efficiency at a practitioner level. Factors affecting first return to work following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair: A retrospective observational study in an occupational medicine clinic and single-surgeon practice BackgroundReturn to work (RTW) following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (aRCR) within New South Wales (NSW), Australia, under compensable schemes has not been reported.

AimsDetermine factors affecting RTW status and time in patients treated with aRCR under state-based compensation schemes, compared to those outside such schemes.

MethodsPatients undergoing aRCR by one surgeon with minimum 1-year follow-up were grouped into those under (CP) or outside (non-CP) workers or vehicle accident compensation schemes, matched by age and gender. RTW status and time were assessed using chi-square analysis and multivariable linear regression.

ResultsOf 1054 available patients, 90 CP patients were identified with 29 consented and matched to non-CP (N=29). A higher proportion of CP patients (17.2 vs 0%, P<0.001) never returned to work and a lower proportion resumed pre-injury duties at first RTW (3 vs 52%, P<0.01). Median time to first RTW did not differ between CP and non-CP groups (5.1 vs 4.4, P=0.86). Smoking (P=0.007) and post-injury activity level (P=0.004) were significantly associated with longer time to first RTW, whereas compensation status was not.

ConclusionsCP patients undergoing aRCR in NSW are at risk of not returning to work. For those that return, there is no significant difference compared to non-CP in time to first RTW. Particularly, patient and management factors associated with extended time to first RTW have been identified. Interventions aimed at modifiable factors such as smoking cessation and increasing preoperative activity may improve future outcomes.

What is already known about this subjectO_LIWork-related injury and disease present a significant financial burden to the Australian economy ($AUD61.8billion per annum), with shoulder conditions due to body stressing accounting for 7% of this total cost (>$AUD4.2billion)
C_LIO_LIPatients receiving compensation appear to have poorer outcomes and take longer to return to work than their non-compensated counterparts, but the degree to which this occurs is variably reported in the literature
C_LIO_LIThe effect of modifiable factors on return to work status and time remain unclear, and have not previously been reported for the Australian population under the New South Wales workers compensation scheme
C_LI

What this study addsO_LIPatients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a compensable scheme in New South Wales are at increased risk of not returning to work compared to patients presenting outside of a compensable scheme and patients in equivalent schemes internationally
C_LIO_LIPatients reporting a longer duration of symptoms and smokers are at increased risk of extended time to first return to work
C_LI

What impact this may have on practice or policyO_LIThe study has identified smoking and pre-surgery activity levels as key targets for intervention in patients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a workers compensation scheme in New South Wales
C_LIO_LIBy further investigating whether interventions designed to modify these factors are able to favourably affect patient outcomes, there is potential to return patients to their preoperative level of work sooner
C_LI Macronutrient mass intake explains deferential weight and fat loss in isocaloric diets Differential weight and fat losses under isocaloric diets of distinct macronutrient composition are well-documented findings in obesity research.1-6 Such data are considered a result of inadequate methodology as it disagree with the energy balance theory.7 A recent mathematical analysis of this paradigm has found, however, serious analytical contradictions in its foundations.8 As an alternative, a mass balance model was proposed to explain the aforesaid body composition alterations. Here, we expand on this observation by contrasting both models. We show that mass balance explains a wide range of fending experiments including those concurring with the energy balance principle. The latter, however, is less flexible and results in poor forecasts in settings consistent with mass balance. The energy balance theory is thus an unsatisfactory model of body composition changes. Consequently, by shifting to a mass balance paradigm of obesity a much deeper understanding of this disease may follow in the near future. Integrating genome-wide polygenic risk scores and non-genetic risk to predict colorectal cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in UK Biobank ObjectivesTo evaluate the benefit of combining polygenic risk scores (PRS) with the QCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) non-genetic risk prediction model to identify those at highest risk of colorectal cancer (CRC).

DesignPopulation based cohort study. Six different PRS for CRC were developed (using LDpred2 PRS software, clumping and thresholding approaches, and genome-wide significant models). The top-performing genome-wide and GWAS-significant PRS were then combined with QCancer-10 and performance compared to QCancer-10 alone. Case-control (logistic regression) and time-to-event (Cox proportional hazards) analyses were used to evaluate risk model performance in men and women.

Setting and participantsUK Biobank Study. A total of 434587 individuals with complete genetic and QCancer-10 predictor data were included in the QCancer-10+PRS modelling cohorts.

Main outcome measuresPrediction of colorectal cancer diagnosis by genetic, non-genetic and combined risk models.

FindingsPRS derived using the LDpred2 program performed best, with an odds-ratio per standard deviation of 1.58, and top age- and sex-adjusted C-statistic of 0.733 (95% confidence interval 0.710 to 0.753) in logistic regression models in the validation cohort. Integrated QCancer-10+PRS models out-performed QCancer-10 alone. In men, the integrated LDpred2 (QCancer-10+LDP) model produced a C-statistic of 0.730 (0.720 to 0.741) and explained variation of 28.1% (26.3% to 30.0%), compared with 0.693 (0.682 to 0.704) and 21.0% (18.9% to 23.1%) for QCancer-10 alone. Performance improvements in women were similar. In the top 20% of individuals at highest absolute risk, the sensitivity of QCancer-10+LDP models for predicting CRC diagnosis within 5 years was 47.6% in men and 42.5% in women, with respective 3.49-fold and 2.75-fold absolute increases in the top 5% of risk compared to average. Decision curve analysis showed that adding PRS to QCancer-10 improved net-benefit and interventions avoided, across most probability thresholds.

ConclusionsIntegrating PRS with QCancer-10 significantly improves risk prediction over QCancer-10 alone. Evaluation of risk stratified population screening using this approach is warranted.

Summary BoxO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIRisk stratification based on genetic or environmental risk factors could improve cancer screening outcomes
C_LIO_LINo previously published study has examined integrated models combining genome-wide PRS and non-genetic risk factors beyond age
C_LIO_LIQCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) is the top-performing non-genetic risk prediction model for CRC
C_LI

What this study addsO_LIAdding PRS to the QCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) risk prediction model improves performance and clinical benefit, with greatest gain from the LDpred2 genome-wide PRS, to a level that suggests utility in stratifying CRC screening and prevention
C_LI Prognostic association supports indexing size measures in echocardiography by body surface area Abstract and keywordsO_ST_ABSAimsC_ST_ABSBody surface area (BSA) is the most commonly used metric for body size indexation of echocardiographic measures, but its use in patients who are underweight or obese is questioned (body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m2 or [&ge;]30 kg/m2, respectively). We aim to use survival analysis to identify an optimal body size indexation metric for echocardiographic measures that would be a better predictor of survival than BSA regardless of BMI.

Methods and ResultsAdult patients with no prior valve replacement were selected from the National Echo Database Australia. Survival analysis was performed for echocardiographic measures both unindexed and indexed to different body size metrics, with 5-year cardiovascular mortality as the primary endpoint. Indexation of echocardiographic measures (left ventricular end-diastolic diameter [n=337,481] and mass [n=330,959], left atrial area [n=136,989], aortic sinus diameter [n=125,130], right atrial area [n=81,699], right ventricular diameter [n=3,575], right ventricular outflow tract diameter [n=2,841]) by BSA had better prognostic performance vs unindexed measures (healthy/overweight: C-statistic 0.656 vs 0.618, average change in Akaike Information Criteria ({Delta}AIC) 800; underweight: C-statistic 0.669 vs 0.654, {Delta}AIC 15; obese: C-statistic 0.630 vs 0.612, {Delta}AIC 113). Indexation by other body size metrics (lean body mass or height and/or weight raised to various powers) did not improve prognostic performance versus BSA by a clinically relevant magnitude (average C-statistic increase [&le;]0.01), with smaller differences in higher BMI subgroups.

ConclusionIndexing measures of cardiac and aortic size by BSA improves prognostic performance regardless of BMI, and no other body size metric has a clinically meaningful better performance. Feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness program for stroke survivors and caregivers BackgroundMindfulness is promising for individuals with neurological disorders and their caregivers to improve psychological well-being. The potential application of a Langerian mindfulness intervention, focused on attention to variability, however, is still unknown.

ObjectiveTo determine the feasibility (usability, satisfaction, and potential effectiveness on psychological well-being) of an online mindfulness intervention for stroke survivors and caregivers.

MethodologyUsing mixed-methods, 11 stroke survivors and 3 caregivers participated in a 3-week, online, Langerian mindfulness intervention. A semi-structured interview assessed the interventions usability and gathered feedback. Self-reported measures about psychological well-being were documented remotely three times (pre, post, one-month follow-up).

ResultsQualitatively, participants were highly satisfied with the intervention, reported subjective benefits, but the usability of the online platform was poor. None of the self-reported measures changed over time.

ConclusionThis study provided evidence of feasibility of an online Langerian mindfulness intervention in a new population: stroke survivors and caregivers. Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis IntroductionSeveral HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritised HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (i) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (ii) review inclusion of community-level HIV risk in predictive models, and (iii) examine predictive performance.

MethodsWe searched nine databases from inception until February 15, 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction, and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random-effects meta-analysis to summarise hazard ratios and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

ResultsFrom 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomised-controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above-25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV-2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n=3). Community-level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but were only considered in three of 11 multi-site studies. The AUC-ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC-ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I2: 64.02%).

ConclusionsYounger age, non-cohabiting, and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low-to-moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalisability, limiting their programmatic utility.

Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to  at-risk individuals, and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes.

PROSPERO NumberCRD42021236367 How Informative Were Early SARS-CoV-2 Treatment and Prevention Trials? A longitudinal cohort analysis of trials registered on clinicaltrials.gov BackgroundEarly in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, commentators warned that some COVID trials were inadequately conceived, designed and reported. Here, we retrospectively assess the prevalence of informative COVID trials launched in the first 6 months of the pandemic.

MethodsWe created a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 treatment and prevention efficacy trials that were initiated from 2020-01-01 to 2020-06-30 using ClinicalTrials.gov registration records. We evaluated trials on 3 criteria of informativeness: potential redundancy, design quality and feasibility of patient-participant recruitment. The study protocol was prospectively registered with the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/fp726/).

ResultsWe included 500 trials in our cohort, 58% of which were Phase 2 and 84.8% were directed towards the treatment of SARS-CoV-2. Close to one third of trials met all three criteria and were deemed informative (29.0% (95% Confidence Interval 23.7 - 36.9)). The proportion of potentially redundant trials in our cohort was 4.1%. Over half of the trials in our cohort (56.2%) did not meet our criteria for high quality trial design. The proportion of trials with infeasible patient-participant recruitment was 22.6%.

ConclusionsLess than one third of COVID-19 trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov during the first six months met all three criteria for informativeness. Shortcomings in trial design, recruitment feasibility and redundancy reflect longstanding weaknesses in the clinical research enterprise that were likely amplified by the exceptional circumstances of a pandemic. Pausing methotrexate improves immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccination in elderly patients with rheumatic diseases ObjectiveTo study the effect of methotrexate (MTX) and its discontinuation on the humoral immune response after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD).

MethodsNeutralising SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured after second vaccination in 64 rheumatic patients on methotrexate therapy, 31 of whom temporarily paused medication without a fixed regimen. The control group consisted of 21 AIRD patients without immunosuppressive medication.

ResultsMTX patients showed a significantly lower median antibody response compared to AIRD patients without immunosuppressive therapy (p< 0.001). Young age (<60 years) and MTX-hold after vaccination were found to be the main factors influencing antibody response after vaccination, while BMI or MTX dose demonstrated no effect. For patients taking MTX, age correlated negatively with immune response (r=-0.49; p<0.001) and all patients with antibody levels (14 %) below the cut-off were older than 60 years. Patients who held MTX during at least one vaccination showed significantly higher median neutralising antibody levels after second vaccination, compared to patients who continued MTX therapy during both vaccinations (68.82 %, 92.73 %, p=<0.001). This effect was particularly pronounced in patients older than 60 years (p=0.0016). The impact of the time period after vaccination was greater than of the time before vaccination with the critical cut-off being 10 days.

ConclusionMTX reduces the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in an age-dependent manner. Our data further suggest that holding MTX for at least 10 days after vaccination significantly improves the antibody response in patients over 60 years of age. Post-COVID-19 Memory Complaints: Prevalence and Associated Factors IntroductionMemory complaints resulting from COVID-19 may have a significant impact on the survivors quality of life. Unfortunately, there is insufficient information available on memory loss and its relationship to COVID-19. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to determine the prevalence of memory complaints in post-COVID-19 patients and to find potential contributing factors.

MethodA cross-sectional survey was conducted on 401 individuals who had previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 at four COVID testing centers situated across Bangladesh. The MAC-Q questionnaire was used to evaluate memory. A binary logistic regression model was fit to study the variables related to memory complaints, with a p-value of <0.05 deemed statistically significant.

ResultMemory complaints was prevalent in 19.2% of the post-COVID patients. Individual predictor analysis revealed that among the treatment modalities, steroids and antibiotics were associated with impaired memory. Multiple logistic regression showed that individuals who recovered from COVID-19 within six to twelve months were more likely to have memory deficits. Even though age, sex, oxygen demand, and hospitalization were not linked with memory complaints, rural residents exhibited more significant memory complaints than urban residents.

ConclusionNearly one-fifth of the COVID-19 patients suffer from various degrees of memory complaints within one year. However, no association was found between COVID-19 severity to memory complaints. Using controlled interrupted time series to estimate the population-level effects of Ontario's recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services BackgroundOntario recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services (OPS/CTS) to stem the harms of the opioid epidemic. We tested whether operating any site improved local opioid-related health service use and mortality rates.

MethodsWe used monthly counts of all opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths between January 2014 and December 2020 for our outcomes. For each public health unit (PHU) that implemented any OPS/CTS, we created a synthetic control as a weighted combination of unexposed PHU. We estimated the population-level effects of operating any site using controlled interrupted time series with segmented regression and adjusted for time varying confounders (i.e. OPS/CTS capacity, naloxone kits distributed, and persons receiving opioid agonist treatment per 100,000 population). We repeated the analysis using a multiple baseline approach to estimate province-wide effects.

ResultsBetween 2017 and 2020, nine out of 34 PHU implemented at least one OPS/CTS. ED visit (RR=0.96, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.99) and hospitalization (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98) trends declined faster among treated units. Improvements in local ED visit rate trends were observed for the majority of treated units. Hospitalization rates declined faster for London (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.95 - 0.99) and Niagara (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98); while mortality rates declined faster for Hamilton (RR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 - 0.96), Niagara (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.94 - 0.99) and Guelph (RR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.88 - 1.00).

ConclusionAlthough OPS/CTS are not sufficient to stem the harms of the opioid overdose epidemic on their own, they play a critical role in local harm reduction strategies. "What do you mean I can't have a doctor? This is Canada!" - A Qualitative Study of the Myriad Consequences for Unattached Patients Awaiting Primary Care Attachment BackgroundPatient access to primary healthcare (PHC) is the foundation of a strong healthcare system and healthy populations. Attachment to a regular PHC provider, a key to healthcare access, has seen a decline in some jurisdictions. This study explored the consequences of unattachment from a patient perspective, an under-studied phenomenon to date.

MethodsA realist-informed qualitative study was conducted with unattached patients in Nova Scotia, Canada. Semi-structured interviews with nine participants were conducted and transcribed for analysis. The framework method was used to carry out analysis, which was guided by Donabedians model of assessing healthcare access and quality.

ResultsFive key findings were noted in this study: 1) Participants experienced a range of consequences from not having a regular PHC provider. Participants used creative strategies to 2) attempt to gain attachment to a regular PHC provider, and, to 3) address their health needs in the absence of a regular PHC provider. 4) Participants experienced negative feelings about themselves and the healthcare system, and 5) stress related to the consequences and added work of being unattached and lost care.

ConclusionsUnattached patients experienced a burden of care related to lost care and managing their own health and related information, due to the download of medical record management and system navigation to them. These findings may underestimate the consequences for further at-risk populations who would not have been included in our recruitment. This may result in poorer health outcomes, which could be mitigated by interventions at the structural level, such as enhanced centralized waitlists to promote attachment. Such waitlists may benefit from a triage approach to appropriately attach patients based on need. Three-dimensional cephalometric landmarking and Frankfort horizontal plane construction: reproducibility of conventional and novel landmarks ObjectivesTo assess manual landmarking repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) of a set of three-dimensional (3D) landmarks and to evaluate R&R of vertical cephalometric measurements using two Frankfort Horizontal (FH) planes as references for horizontal 3D imaging reorientation.

MethodsThirty-three landmarks, divided into "conventional", "foraminal" and "dental", were manually located twice by 3 experienced operators on 20 computed tomography (CT) scans of orthognathic surgery patients. R&R of the landmark localization were computed according to the ISO 5725 standard. These landmarks were then used to construct 2 FH planes: a conventional FH plane (orbitale left, porion right and left) and a newly proposed FH plane (midinternal acoustic foramen, orbitale right and left). R&R of vertical cephalometric measurements were computed using these 2 FH planes as horizontal references for CT reorientation.

ResultsLandmarks showing a 95% confidence interval (CI) of repeatability and/or reproducibility > 2mm were found exclusively in the "conventional" landmarks group. Vertical measurements showed excellent R&R (95% CI < 1mm) with either FH plane as horizontal reference. However, the 2 FH planes were not found to be parallel (absolute angular difference of 2.41{degrees}, SD 1.27{degrees}). The average time needed to landmark one CT scan was 14 {+/-} 3 minutes.

ConclusionsThe "dental" and "foraminal" landmarks tended to be more reliable than the "conventional" landmarks. Despite the poor overall reliability of the landmarks orbitale and porion, the construction of the conventional FH plane using 3 landmarks provided a reliable horizontal reference for 3D craniofacial CT scan reorientation. Impact of COVID 19 on the quality of life (QoL) of patients living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos Nigeria The study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Quality of Life (QoL) in persons living with Sickle Cell Disorder (SCD) in Lagos, Nigeria and to determine how they coped during the pandemic, particularly during the period of total lockdown with the additional "SHIELDING" measures to which they had to adhere. Data was collected using a standardized protocol PedsQL, Sickle Cell Disease Module version.3.0 designed for youth within the ages of (13-18) years, (19-35) years and their parents/Guardian if underage. The survey captured data on patients pain impact, hurts, management, treatments, communication with their caregivers and their Guardians perception. The survey was performed online, or Face-to-Face/telephone interview if online was not possible. Contacts of patients and parents were obtained from the database of Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria. A total of 105 (80 patients and 25 parents) participants responded to the survey. The age distribution of respondents was highest at 56 % in the age bracket of 13 - 18 years old. Pain crisis were very common amongst patients. The survey revealed that the type of treatment or care received at these times determined whether or not the patients visited the hospital when they had pain crises. In addition, as patients reports an increase in ill-treatment they experienced in the hands of health care givers, so did the fear of accessing treatment during the COVID pandemic. It was observed that the frequency of pain crises experienced by SCD patients was proportional to the patients quality of life (the higher the frequency of pains, the worse the QoL). As a follow-up, a more detailed study would be required, as this study was limited in the capturing of the demographics, sex and number of participants; Considering the number of persons living with SCD that visit the Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria, (about 3,000 patients), the number of responses in this study was low (105). It is believed that a higher number of responses would have given more information about the Sickle Cell burden and the QoL of persons living with SCD in Lagos during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lagos was the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. The incidence of delirium in an acute geriatric community hospital: an observational cohort feasibility study. ObjectivesDelirium in hospitalised older adults is associated with negative health outcomes. Admission to an alternative care setting may lower the incidence of delirium. The Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH) was recently opened in the Netherlands and uses a multi-component non-pharmacological intervention strategy to prevent delirium. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of delirium at the AGCH and compare this incidence to existing rates from literature. If a possible effect on delirium is seen in this comparison this would support conducting a larger prospectively controlled study on delirium in this new care setting.

DesignProspective cohort feasibility study; exploratory meta-analysis of proportions.

Setting and ParticipantsThe AGCH is an acute geriatric unit in a skilled nursing facility for patients aged >65 years with acute medical conditions.

MethodsDelirium assessment using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) upon admission and on day one, two and three or until delirium had resolved. Patients charts were reviewed if CAM was missing. In an linear mixed-effects model, the delirium incidence rate in AGCH was compared to pooled delirium incidence rates from six studies found in a high-quality review.

Results214 patients from the AGCH (mean age 81.9 years, 47% male, 12% with a history of dementia) were included in the analysis. Delirium developed in 8% (18/214) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5-13%) of patients during AGCH admission compared to 16% (95% CI 12-21%) in hospitals. Admission to the AGCH was associated with a decreased delirium incidence rate compared to the hospital control group (OR[odds ratio]= 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98, p-value=0.044).

Conclusions and implicationsThe delirium incidence in the AGCH was low compared to those incidences found in general hospitals in literature. Based on these findings a controlled observational or randomized study measuring delirium in this care setting is recommended.