The source of individual heterogeneity shapes infectious disease outbreaks There is known heterogeneity between individuals in infectious disease transmission patterns. The source of this heterogeneity is thought to affect epidemiological dynamics but studies tend not to control for the overall heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases caused by an infection. To explore the role of individual variation in infection duration and transmission rate on parasite emergence and spread, while controlling for this potential bias, we simulate stochastic outbreaks with and without parasite evolution. As expected, heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases decreases the probability of outbreak emergence. Furthermore, for epidemics that do emerge, assuming more realistic infection duration distributions leads to faster outbreaks and higher epidemic peaks. When parasites require adaptive mutations to cause large epidemics, the impact of heterogeneity depends on the underlying evolutionary model. If emergence relies on within-host evolution, decreasing the infection duration variance decreases the probability of emergence. These results underline the importance of accounting for realistic distributions of infection rates to anticipate the effect of individual heterogeneity on epidemiological dynamics.
Prevalence of long-term effects in individuals diagnosed with COVID-19: an updated living systematic review ObjectivePost COVID-19 condition refers to persisting or recurring symptoms weeks after acute COVID-19 illness which can significantly impact quality of life and health systems. It is important to understand the manifestation and magnitude of this condition. The objective of this living systematic review is to summarize the prevalence of symptoms and sequelae reported by people [&ge;]4 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis.

DesignSystematic review, meta-analysis and narrative synthesis.

Data sourcesEmbase, Medline, PsychInfo, Cochrane Central and select grey literature up to April 14, 2021.

MethodsWe adapted a previous search strategy used by the U.K. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and updated it to search for new literature. Two reviewers screened references independently; one extracted data and assessed risk of bias and certainty of the evidence while another verified them. Prevalence data from laboratory-confirmed populations were meta-analyzed using a random effects model and synthesized separately in the short-term (4-12 weeks) and long-term (>12 weeks) periods after diagnosis. Data from clinically-diagnosed populations were synthesized narratively.

ResultsOf the 4444 unique citations, 84 observational studies met our inclusion criteria. Over 100 post COVID-19 symptoms and sequelae were reported. Sixty-one percent (95% CI: 44-76%, low certainty) and 53% (95% CI: 41-65%, low certainty) of laboratory-confirmed individuals reported persistence or presence of one or more symptoms in the short- and long-term periods, respectively. The most prevalent symptoms in both periods included: fatigue, general pain or discomfort, shortness of breath, cognitive impairment and mental health symptoms.

ConclusionsA substantial proportion of individuals reported a variety of symptoms [&ge;]4 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. Due to gaps in the research base, and the low certainty of the evidence currently available, further research is needed to determine the true burden of post COVID-19 condition in the general population and in specific subgroups.

PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021231476.
Practical Indicators for Risk of Airborne Transmission in Shared Indoor Environments and their application to COVID-19 Outbreaks Some infectious diseases, including COVID-19, can be transmitted via aerosols that are emitted by an infectious person and inhaled by susceptible individuals. Most airborne transmission occurs at close proximity and is effectively reduced by physical distancing, but as time indoors increases, infections occur in those sharing room air despite maintaining distancing. There have been calls for quantified models to estimate the absolute and relative contribution of these different factors to infection risk. We propose two indicators of infection risk for this situation, i.e., relative risk parameter (Hr) and risk parameter (H). They combine the key factors that control airborne disease transmission indoors: virus-containing aerosol generation rate, breathing flow rate, masking and its quality, ventilation and particulate air cleaning rates, number of occupants, and duration of exposure. COVID-19 outbreaks show a clear trend in relation to these factors that is consistent with airborne infection The observed trends of outbreak size (attack rate) vs. H (Hr) allow us to recommend values of these parameters to minimize COVID-19 indoor infection risk. Transmission in typical pre-pandemic indoor spaces is highly sensitive to mitigation efforts. Previous outbreaks of measles, flu, and tuberculosis were assessed along with recently reported COVID-19 outbreaks. Measles outbreaks occur at much lower risk parameter values than COVID-19, while tuberculosis outbreaks are observed at much higher risk parameter values. Since both diseases are accepted as airborne, the fact that COVID-19 is less contagious than measles does not rule out airborne transmission. It is important that future outbreak reports include information on the nature and type of masking, ventilation and particulate-air cleaning rates, number of occupants, and duration of exposure, to allow us to understand the circumstances conducive to airborne transmission of different diseases.

SynopsisWe propose two infection risk indicators for indoor spaces and apply them to COVID-19 outbreaks analysis and mitigation. The effect of stimulus duration on preferences for gain adjustments when listening to speech ObjectivesIn the personalisation of hearing aid fittings, gain is often adjusted to suit patient preferences using live speech. When using brief sentences as stimuli, the minimum gain adjustments necessary to elicit consistent preferences ( preference thresholds) were previously found to be much greater than typical adjustments in current practice. The current study examined the role of duration on preference thresholds.

DesignParticipants heard 2, 4 and 6-s segments of a continuous monologue presented successively in pairs. The first segment of each pair was presented at each individuals real-ear or prescribed gain. The second segment was presented with a {+/-}0-12 dB gain adjustment in one of three frequency bands. Participants judged whether the second was "better", "worse" or "no different" from the first.

Study SampleTwenty-nine adults, all with hearing-aid experience.

ResultsThe minimum gain adjustments needed to elicit "better" or "worse" judgments decreased with increasing duration for most adjustments. Inter-participant agreement and intra-participant reliability increased with increasing duration up to 4 s, then remained stable.

ConclusionsProviding longer stimuli improves the likelihood of patients providing reliable judgments of hearing-aid gain adjustments, but the effect is limited, and alternative fitting methods may be more viable for effective hearing-aid personalisation. Relationship Between Patient Sex and Serum Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonist Drug and Anti-Drug Antibody Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease; A Nationwide Cohort Study BackgroundAnti-drug antibodies to infliximab (ATI) and adalimumab (ATA) are associated with loss of response to tumor necrosis factor antagonist (anti-TNF) therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the relationship between patient sex and serum TNF antagonist drug and antibody concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease

MethodsA nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted by evaluating patients charts from July 2018 until September 2021. The effect of patient sex on anti-drug antibodies and serum drug concentration in patients with IBD across 7 hospitals was investigated. A subgroup analysis also investigated the effect of anti-TNF combination therapy. Geometric means were calculated, and multiple linear regression was used to estimate the adjusted ratio of geometric means (RoGM) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

ResultsIn the total study sample (n = 1093), males receiving infliximab had higher anti-drug antibody concentrations (38.3 vs. 22.3 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30-2.27, p-value <0.001) compared to females. Additionally, infliximab serum drug concentrations among males were lower compared to females (2.6 vs. 4.1 ug/ml; aRoGM = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44-0.88, p-value = 0.007). In the subgroup analysis (n = 359), male compared to female patients on combination therapy with infliximab and immunomodulators had similar anti-drug antibody concentrations (30.2 vs. 21.9 AU/ml; aRoGM = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.79-2.40, p-value = 0.254). There was no difference in the anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab.

ConclusionIn patients receiving infliximab, anti-drug antibodies were higher in males than females. Consistent with this, serum drug concentrations were lower in males than females on infliximab. There was no difference in anti-drug antibody and serum drug concentrations among males and females on adalimumab. In addition, no difference in anti-drug antibodies between males and females receiving anti-TNF combination therapy was observed. Substance Use Onset in High-Risk 9-13 Year-Olds in the ABCD Study AimA key aim of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study is to document substance use onset, patterns, and sequelae across adolescent development. However, substance use misreporting obscures accurate drug use characterization. Hair toxicology tests provide objective historical substance use data, but are rarely investigated in youth. Here, we compare objective hair toxicology results with self-reported substance use in youth.

MethodsA literature-based substance use risk algorithm identified 696 ABCD Study(R) participants for hair sample collections between baseline and 2-year follow-up (spanning ages 9-13) for laboratory analysis. Chi-square and t-tests assessed differences between participants demographics, positive and negative hair tests, risk algorithm scores, and self-reported substance use.

ResultsHair testing confirmed that 17% of at-risk 9-13 year-olds had evidence of past 3-month use of one (n=99), two (n=17), three (n=3), or four (n=2) drug classes. After considering prescribed medication use, 11% had a positive test incongruent with self- or parent-report. No participant with a positive result self-reported substance use consistent with their toxicology results. Participants with positive tests under-reported use (p<.001), reported less sipping of alcohol (p<.001), and scored higher on the risk algorithm (p<.001) than those with negative hair toxicology.

ConclusionsAn alarming 11% of tested samples in at-risk 9-13 year-olds were positive for at least one unreported substance, suggesting underreporting in this population when participating in a national healthy development study. The degree of underreporting cannot yet be calculated, as at-risk samples were prioritized for assays. Expanded toxicology testing is key to characterize substance use in youth. Investigating trends in those who experience menstrual bleeding changes after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination Early in 2021, many people began sharing that they experienced unexpected menstrual bleeding after SARS-CoV-2 inoculation. We investigated this emerging phenomenon of changed menstrual bleeding patterns among a convenience sample of currently and formerly menstruating people using a web-based survey. In this sample, 42% of people with regular menstrual cycles bled more heavily than usual while 44% reported no change after being vaccinated. Among respondents who typically do not menstruate, 71% of people on long-acting reversible contraceptives, 39% of people on gender-affirming hormones, and 66% of post-menopausal people reported breakthrough bleeding. We found increased/breakthrough bleeding was significantly associated with age, systemic vaccine side effects (fever, fatigue), history of pregnancy or birth, and ethnicity. Generally, changes to menstrual bleeding are not uncommon nor dangerous, yet attention to these experiences is necessary to build trust in medicine.

TeaserIncreased bleeding can occur post SARS-CoV-2 vaccines; this study investigates patterns in who experiences these changes. Hair loss in females and thromboembolism in males are significantly enriched in post-acute sequelae of COVID (PASC) relative to recent medical history After one year of the COVID-19 pandemic, over 130 million individuals worldwide have been infected with the novel coronavirus, yet the post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), also referred to as the  long COVID syndrome, remains mostly uncharacterized. We leveraged machine-augmented curation of the physician notes from electronic health records (EHRs) across the multi-state Mayo Clinic health system to retrospectively contrast the occurrence of symptoms and diseases in COVID-19 patients in the post-COVID period relative to the pre-COVID period (n=6,413). Through comparison of the frequency of 10,039 signs and symptoms before and after diagnosis, we identified an increase in hypertensive chronic kidney disease (OR 47.3, 95% CI 23.9-93.6, p=3.50x10-9), thromboembolism (OR 3.84, 95% CI 3.22-4.57, p=1.18x10-4), and hair loss (OR 2.44, 95% CI 2.15-2.76, p=8.46x10-3) in COVID-19 patients three to six months after diagnosis. The sequelae associated with long COVID were notably different among male vs female patients and patients above vs under 55 years old, with the hair loss enrichment found primarily in females and the thromboembolism enrichment in males. These findings compel targeted investigations into what may be persistent dermatologic, cardiovascular, and coagulopathic phenotypes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Survey of Contaminated Percutaneous Injuries in Anesthesia Practitioners BackgroundAnesthesia practitioners are at inherent risk for percutaneous injuries by blood-contaminated needles and sharp objects. These exposures may result in transmission of HIV and hepatitis viruses. Data about this occupational hazard from contaminated needles and sharp devices is limited and decades old. We conducted a web-based survey to assess the occurrence, reporting, characteristics, and outcome of contaminated percutaneous injuries (CPI) in anesthesia residents, fellows, and attendings.

MethodsAfter institutional research board approval, an email was sent to 217 anesthesia practitioners requesting their participation in an online survey about contaminated percutaneous injuries. Responses were collected from February through March 2020. Results are reported as absolute numbers and proportions with 95% confidence interval (CI).

ResultsThe overall survey response rate was 51% (110/217). 59% (65/110) (95% CI, 50-68) of participants reported having one or more contaminated percutaneous injury during their years of anesthesia practice (42% (21/50) of residents, 50% (4/8) of fellows, 77% (40/52) of anesthesia attendings). Prevalence of injuries related to attendings years of anesthesia practice was 69% (95% CI, 44-94) for 5-10 years, 62.5% (95% CI, 29-96) for 10-15 years, and 79% (95% CI, 63- 95) for greater than 15 years of practice.

35% (95% CI, 26-44) of participants reported having one or more CPI within the last 5 years (40% of residents, 50% of fellows, 29% of attendings). Occurrence of CPI within the last 5 years based on attending anesthesiologist years of practice was 57% for less than 5 years, 37.5% for 10-15 years, and 20% for 15-20 years of practice. 75% (95% CI, 65-85) reported the incident at the time of injury. 59% (95% CI, 48-70) of injuries were due to hollow bore needles. 50% (95% CI, 39-61) of total injuries were high risk. 26% of injured anesthesia practitioners received post-exposure prophylaxis and there were zero seroconversions.

ConclusionMost anesthesiologists will sustain a contaminated percutaneous injury during their careers. Incidence of these injuries decreases with years of practice. Occurrence of these injuries is high among anesthesia residents, with the majority reporting their injuries. Half of the injuries are high risk with a quarter requiring postexposure prophylaxis. More education and interventions are needed to reduce percutaneous injuries and improve reporting. Development of machine learning models for the prediction of complications after colorectal and small intestine surgery in psychiatric and non-psychiatric patient collectives (P-Study) Psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases are an increasingly cumbersome burden for the medical system. Indeed, hospital costs associated with mental health conditions have been constantly on the rise in recent years. Moreover, psychiatric conditions are likely to have a negative effect on the treatment of other medical conditions and surgical outcomes, in addition to their direct effects on the overall quality of life. Our study aims to investigate the impact of preoperative Risk factor, psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases on the outcomes of colorectal surgery and length of hospital stay via predictive modeling techniques.

MethodPatient data will be collected from several participating national and international surgical centers The machine learning models will be calculated and coded, but also published according to the TRIPOD guidelines (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis).

ResultIt is conceivable to arrive at generalizable models predicting the abovementioned endpoints through large amounts of data from several centers. The models will be subsequently deployed as a free-to-use web-based prediction tool using the Shiny environment [47]. The cost for the hosting server and digital infrastructure will be covered by Dr. Anas Taha. The sponsor will store the data for ten years. How social engagement against Covid-19 in a Brazilian Slum helped mitigate rising statistics ObjectivesFor many underdeveloped countries, strategies implemented by social communities allied to scientific knowledge may be a rote to attenuate the rapid spread of Covid-19 cases and allow services to the population. This work presents a joint effort collaboration between scientists and underserved community groups from a Brazilian slum/Santa Marta in Rio de Janeiro City in the fight against Covid-19. Measurements of contamination in the air near the ground, georeferencing of data of infected people, were regressed with sanitization activities aiming at reducing the Covid-19 incidence.

MethodsWe monitored aerosol containing SARS-Cov-2 virus in outdoor ambient air using various virus collection mediums (solid, liquid, and gelatinous substrates) at different aerodynamic sizes. We implemented a local statistics survey for the Covid-19 database correlated with varying sanitization levels between April 2020 and June 2021 developed in the Santa Marta slum.

FindingsWe detected the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the air near the ground in diameters ranging from 0.25 to 0.5 {micro}m, demonstrating that there is a circulation of the virus in the slum atmosphere. We demonstrate that Covid-19 cases for the Santa Marta slum were significatively lowered with improved sanitization levels (r = -0.74).

ConclusionsDespite previous publications that discarded the use of sanitization as a relevant tool in the fight against Covid-19, our results suggest that profits can be achieved in mitigating Covid-19 in underserved community sites. Furthermore, a permanent sanitization activity may induce positive social behavior for the sake of combating Covid-19. Knee-extensor strength, symptoms, and need for surgery after two, four, or six exercise sessions/week using a home-based one-exercise program: A randomized dose-response trial of knee-extensor resistance exercise in patients eligible for knee replacement (the QUADX-1 trial). ObjectiveTo investigate firstly the efficacy of three different dosages of one home-based, knee-extensor resistance exercise on knee-extensor strength in patients eligible for knee replacement, and secondly, the influence of exercise on symptoms, physical function and decision on surgery.

MethodOne-hundred and forty patients eligible for knee replacement were randomized to three groups: 2, 4 or 6 home-based knee-extensor resistance exercise-sessions per week (group 2, 4 and 6 respectively) for 12 weeks. Primary outcome: isometric knee-extensor strength. Secondary outcomes: Oxford Knee Score, Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, average knee pain last week (0-10 numeric rating scale), 6-minute walk test, stair climbing test, exercise adherence and "need for surgery".

ResultsPrimary analysis: Intention-to-treat analysis of 140 patients did not find statistically significant differences between the groups from baseline to after 12 weeks of exercise in isometric knee-extensor strength: Group 2 vs. 4 (0.003 Nm/kg (0.2%) [95% CI -0.15 to 0.15], P=0.965) and group 4 vs. 6 (-0.04 Nm/kg (-2.7%) [95% CI -0.15 to 0.12], P=0.628). Secondary analysis: Intention-to-treat analyses showed statistically significant differences between the two and six sessions/week groups in favor of the two sessions/week group for Oxford Knee Score: 4.8 OKS points (15.2%) [1.3 to 8.3], P=0.008) and avg. knee pain last week (NRS 0-10): - 1.3 NRS points (-19.5%) [-2.3 to -0.2], P=0.018. After the 12-week exercise intervention, data were available for 117 patients (N=39/group): 38 (32.5%) patients wanted surgery and 79 (67.5%) postponed surgery. This was independent of exercise dosage.

ConclusionIn patients eligible for knee-replacement we found no between-group differences in isometric knee extensor strength after 2, 4 and 6 knee-extensor resistance exercise sessions per week. We saw no indication of an exercise dose-response relationship for isometric knee-extensor strength and only clinically irrelevant within group changes. For some secondary outcome (e.g. KOOS subscales) we found clinically relevant within group changes, which could help explain why only one in three patients decided to have surgery after the simple home-based exercise intervention.

Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02931058. Preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.07.21254965. Preexisting diabetes and COVID-associated hyperglycaemia in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSAimC_ST_ABSThe aim of the current study was to compare clinical characteristics, laboratory findings and major outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia with COVID-associated hyperglycaemia or preexisting diabetes.

MethodsA cohort of 176 adult patients with a diagnosis of pre-existing diabetes (n=112) or COVID-associated hyperglycaemia (n=55) was studied. Clinical outcomes and laboratory findings were analysed according to the presence of the two conditions. The time to viral clearance was assessed during the follow-up after hospital discharge.

ResultPatients with COVID-associated hyperglycaemia had lower BMI, significantly less comorbidities and higher levels of inflammatory markers and indicators of multi-organ injury than those with preexisting diabetes. No differences between preexisting diabetes and COVID-associated hyperglycaemia were evident for symptoms at admission, humoral response against SARS-CoV-2 or autoantibodies to glutamic acid decarboxylase or interferon alpha-4. COVID-associated hyperglycaemia was independently associated with the risk of adverse clinical outcome defined as ICU admission or death (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.34-3.31; p=0.001), even after adjustment for age, sex and other selected variables associated with COVID-19 severity. Furthermore, we documented a negative association (HR 0.661, 95% CI 0.43-1.02; p=0.063) between COVID-associated hyperglycaemia and the time to swab negativization.

ConclusionsThe recognition of hyperglycaemia as a specific clinical entity associated with COVID-19 pneumonia is relevant for early and appropriate patient management and close monitoring for the progression of disease severity. Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Critically ill Mechanically Ventilated COVID-19 Patients Receiving interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists and Corticosteroid Therapy: A Multicenter International Observational Study ObjectivesThe interest in interleukin-6 receptor antagonists (IL-6RA) and steroids have increased recently due to their potential role as immunomodulatory effect in critically ill coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The magnitude of this therapy in subgroups of patients with invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) remains to be fully clarified. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients requiring iMV, and receiving IL-6RA and steroids with different steroids regimens.

DesignInternational, multicenter, observational study derived from Viral Infection and Respiratory Illness University Study registry and conducted through Discovery Network, Society of Critical Care Medicine. Marginal structural modeling was used to adjust time-dependent confounders; observations were weighted using inverse probability of treatment weight. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for target trial design.

Setting168 hospitals, 16 countries.

PatientsCovid-19 ICU patients ([&ge;]18 years) requiring MV between March 01,2020, and January 10,2021.

InterventionNone.

Measurements and Main ResultsOf 860 patients met eligibility criteria, 589 received steroids, 170 IL-6RA, and 101 combinations; groups were balanced after adjustment. Median daily steroid dose was 7.5 mg dexamethasone or equivalent (IQR:6-14 mg); 80.8% and 19.2% received low-dose and high-dose steroids, respectively. The median C-reactive protein level was >75 mg/L in majority of our cohort. The use of IL-6R antagonists alone or in combination was not associated with a significant difference in ventilator-free days (VFD) compared to steroids alone with different steroids regimens (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI]): IL-6R antagonists (1.12 [0.88,1.4]), combination (0.83 [0.6,1.14]). Patients treated with low or high-dose steroids had non-significant differences in VFD compared to IL-6RA ({beta}=0.62, 95% CI -1.54,2.78 for low-dose steroid; {beta}=-1.19, 95% CI -3.85,1.47 for high-dose steroid). There was no difference in 28-day mortality and hospital mortality with IL-6RA alone or in combination compared to steroids alone (28-day mortality adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]): IL-6RA (0.68[0.44,1.07]), combination (1.07[0.67,1.70]). Sensitivity analysis findings were consistent with primary analysis. Liver dysfunction was higher in IL-6RA (p=0.04) while rate of bacteremia did not differ among groups.

ConclusionsIn adult ICU COVID-19 patients on iMV, we found no difference in outcomes between those who received IL-6RA, steroids, or combination therapy and those who received IL-6RA or low-or high-dose steroids. Further randomized trials are needed to enhance our understanding for IL-6RA safety with different steroids regimen and the magnitude of benefit in those subgroups of patients. The incidence of delirium in an acute geriatric community hospital: an observational cohort feasibility study. ObjectivesDelirium in hospitalised older adults is associated with negative health outcomes. Admission to an alternative care setting may lower the incidence of delirium. The Acute Geriatric Community Hospital (AGCH) was recently opened in the Netherlands and uses a multi-component non-pharmacological intervention strategy to prevent delirium. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of delirium at the AGCH and compare this incidence to existing rates from literature. If a possible effect on delirium is seen in this comparison this would support conducting a larger prospectively controlled study on delirium in this new care setting.

DesignProspective cohort feasibility study; exploratory meta-analysis of proportions.

Setting and ParticipantsThe AGCH is an acute geriatric unit in a skilled nursing facility for patients aged >65 years with acute medical conditions.

MethodsDelirium assessment using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) upon admission and on day one, two and three or until delirium had resolved. Patients charts were reviewed if CAM was missing. In an linear mixed-effects model, the delirium incidence rate in AGCH was compared to pooled delirium incidence rates from six studies found in a high-quality review.

Results214 patients from the AGCH (mean age 81.9 years, 47% male, 12% with a history of dementia) were included in the analysis. Delirium developed in 8% (18/214) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5-13%) of patients during AGCH admission compared to 16% (95% CI 12-21%) in hospitals. Admission to the AGCH was associated with a decreased delirium incidence rate compared to the hospital control group (OR[odds ratio]= 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98, p-value=0.044).

Conclusions and implicationsThe delirium incidence in the AGCH was low compared to those incidences found in general hospitals in literature. Based on these findings a controlled observational or randomized study measuring delirium in this care setting is recommended. A Cross-Sectional Examination of Conflict-of-Interest Disclosures of Physician-Authors Publishing in High-Impact US Medical Journals ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of self-reported financial conflict-of-interest (COI) disclosures in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) within the requisite disclosure period prior to article submission.

DesignCross-sectional investigation.

Data SourcesOriginal clinical-trial research articles published in NEJM (n = 206) or JAMA (n = 188) from January 1 to December 31, 2017; self-reported COI disclosure forms submitted to NEJM or JAMA with the authors published articles; Open Payments website (from database inception; latest search: August 2019).

Main outcome measuresFinancial data reported to Open Payments from 2014 to 2016 (time period that included all subjects requisite disclosure windows) were compared to self-reported disclosure forms submitted to the journals. Payments were defined as those not associated with a research study or formal research funding. Payment types were categorized as "disclosed," "undisclosed," "indeterminate," or "unrelated."

ResultsThirty-one articles from NEJM and 31 articles from JAMA met inclusion criteria. The physician-authors (n = 118) received a combined total of $7.48 million. Of the 106 authors (89.8%) who received payments, 86 (81.1%) received undisclosed payments. The top 23 most highly compensated received $6.32 million, of which $3.00 million (47.6%) was undisclosed. Disclosure rates were the equivalent between the top 23 and the entire sample.

ConclusionsHigh payment amounts, as well as high proportions of undisclosed financial compensation, regardless of amount received, comprised potential COIs for two influential US medical journals. Further research is needed to explain why such high proportions of general payments were undisclosed and whether journals that rely on self-reported COI disclosure need to reconsider their policies. Factors affecting first return to work following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair: A retrospective observational study in an occupational medicine clinic and single-surgeon practice BackgroundReturn to work (RTW) following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (aRCR) within New South Wales (NSW), Australia, under compensable schemes has not been reported.

AimsDetermine factors affecting RTW status and time in patients treated with aRCR under state-based compensation schemes, compared to those outside such schemes.

MethodsPatients undergoing aRCR by one surgeon with minimum 1-year follow-up were grouped into those under (CP) or outside (non-CP) workers or vehicle accident compensation schemes, matched by age and gender. RTW status and time were assessed using chi-square analysis and multivariable linear regression.

ResultsOf 1054 available patients, 90 CP patients were identified with 29 consented and matched to non-CP (N=29). A higher proportion of CP patients (17.2 vs 0%, P<0.001) never returned to work and a lower proportion resumed pre-injury duties at first RTW (3 vs 52%, P<0.01). Median time to first RTW did not differ between CP and non-CP groups (5.1 vs 4.4, P=0.86). Smoking (P=0.007) and post-injury activity level (P=0.004) were significantly associated with longer time to first RTW, whereas compensation status was not.

ConclusionsCP patients undergoing aRCR in NSW are at risk of not returning to work. For those that return, there is no significant difference compared to non-CP in time to first RTW. Particularly, patient and management factors associated with extended time to first RTW have been identified. Interventions aimed at modifiable factors such as smoking cessation and increasing preoperative activity may improve future outcomes.

What is already known about this subjectO_LIWork-related injury and disease present a significant financial burden to the Australian economy ($AUD61.8billion per annum), with shoulder conditions due to body stressing accounting for 7% of this total cost (>$AUD4.2billion)
C_LIO_LIPatients receiving compensation appear to have poorer outcomes and take longer to return to work than their non-compensated counterparts, but the degree to which this occurs is variably reported in the literature
C_LIO_LIThe effect of modifiable factors on return to work status and time remain unclear, and have not previously been reported for the Australian population under the New South Wales workers compensation scheme
C_LI

What this study addsO_LIPatients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a compensable scheme in New South Wales are at increased risk of not returning to work compared to patients presenting outside of a compensable scheme and patients in equivalent schemes internationally
C_LIO_LIPatients reporting a longer duration of symptoms and smokers are at increased risk of extended time to first return to work
C_LI

What impact this may have on practice or policyO_LIThe study has identified smoking and pre-surgery activity levels as key targets for intervention in patients receiving arthroscopic rotator cuff repair under a workers compensation scheme in New South Wales
C_LIO_LIBy further investigating whether interventions designed to modify these factors are able to favourably affect patient outcomes, there is potential to return patients to their preoperative level of work sooner
C_LI Serum proteome analysis of systemic JIA and related pulmonary alveolar proteinosis identifies distinct inflammatory programs and biomarkers ObjectivesRecent observations in systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (sJIA) suggest an increasing incidence of high-mortality interstitial lung disease, characterized by a variant of pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP). Co-occurrence of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) and PAP in sJIA suggested a shared pathology, but sJIA-PAP patients also commonly experience features of drug reaction such as atypical rashes and eosinophilia. We sought to investigate immunopathology and identify biomarkers in sJIA, MAS, and sJIA-PAP.

MethodsWe used SOMAscan to measure >1300 analytes in sera from healthy controls and patients with sJIA, MAS, sJIA-PAP and other related diseases. We verified selected findings by ELISA and lung immunostaining. Because the proteome of a sample may reflect multiple states (sJIA, MAS, sJIA-PAP), we used regression modeling to identify subsets of altered proteins associated with each state. We tested key findings in a validation cohort.

ResultsProteome alterations in active sJIA and MAS overlapped substantially, including known sJIA biomarkers like SAA and S100A9, and novel elevations of heat shock proteins and glycolytic enzymes. IL-18 was elevated in all sJIA groups, particularly MAS and sJIA-PAP. We also identified an MAS-independent sJIA-PAP signature notable for elevated ICAM5, MMP7, and allergic/eosinophilic chemokines, which were all previously associated with lung damage. Immunohistochemistry localized ICAM5 and MMP7 in sJIA-PAP lung. ICAM5s ability to distinguish sJIA-PAP from sJIA/MAS was independently validated.

ConclusionsSerum proteins support an sJIA-to-MAS continuum, help distinguish sJIA, sJIA/MAS, and sJIA-PAP, and suggest etiologic hypotheses. Select biomarkers, such as ICAM5, could aid in early detection and management of sJIA-PAP. Macular vascular complexity analysis of diabetes mellitus by swept-source optical coherence tomographic angiography PurposeTo evaluate the associations of retinal vascular complexity features, including fractal dimension (FD) and blood vessel tortuosity (BVT), with the severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) by using noninvasive optical coherence tomographic angiography (OCTA).

MethodsThis prospective cross-sectional study recruited ocular-treatment-naive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) registered in the community of Guangzhou, China. OCTA was used to obtain the measurements of FD and BVT in the superficial capillary plexus (SCP) and the deep capillary plexus (DCP). Univariate and multivariate linear regression was used to analyse the correlation of FD and BVT in different layers with DR severity.

ResultsA total of 1282 patients with DM (1282 eyes), with a mean age of 64.2{+/-}7.8 years, were included. FD in the DCP decreased and BVT in the DCP increased in DR patients compared to non-DR patients, even after adjusting for confounding factors (P< 0.05). Trend analysis showed a significant decrease in the FD values as the DR progressed, while the BVT progressively increased with worsening DR severity (P< 0.01). The FD in DCP had a statistically significant positive correlation with FD in SCP and a negative correlation with BVT in SCP and BVT in DCP in all of the participants, including the non-DR group, moderate DR group and severe DR group (P< 0.01).

ConclusionFD and BVT determined using OCTA might be useful parameters for objectively distinguishing DR from non-DR and indicating DR progression. "What do you mean I can't have a doctor? This is Canada!" - A Qualitative Study of the Myriad Consequences for Unattached Patients Awaiting Primary Care Attachment BackgroundPatient access to primary healthcare (PHC) is the foundation of a strong healthcare system and healthy populations. Attachment to a regular PHC provider, a key to healthcare access, has seen a decline in some jurisdictions. This study explored the consequences of unattachment from a patient perspective, an under-studied phenomenon to date.

MethodsA realist-informed qualitative study was conducted with unattached patients in Nova Scotia, Canada. Semi-structured interviews with nine participants were conducted and transcribed for analysis. The framework method was used to carry out analysis, which was guided by Donabedians model of assessing healthcare access and quality.

ResultsFive key findings were noted in this study: 1) Participants experienced a range of consequences from not having a regular PHC provider. Participants used creative strategies to 2) attempt to gain attachment to a regular PHC provider, and, to 3) address their health needs in the absence of a regular PHC provider. 4) Participants experienced negative feelings about themselves and the healthcare system, and 5) stress related to the consequences and added work of being unattached and lost care.

ConclusionsUnattached patients experienced a burden of care related to lost care and managing their own health and related information, due to the download of medical record management and system navigation to them. These findings may underestimate the consequences for further at-risk populations who would not have been included in our recruitment. This may result in poorer health outcomes, which could be mitigated by interventions at the structural level, such as enhanced centralized waitlists to promote attachment. Such waitlists may benefit from a triage approach to appropriately attach patients based on need. Problems with Evidence Assessment in COVID-19 Health Policy Impact Evaluation (PEACHPIE): A systematic review of study design and evidence strength IntroductionAssessing the impact of COVID-19 policy is critical for informing future policies. However, there are concerns about the overall strength of COVID-19 impact evaluation studies given the circumstances for evaluation and concerns about the publication environment. This study systematically reviewed the strength of evidence in the published COVID-19 policy impact evaluation literature.

MethodsWe included studies that were primarily designed to estimate the quantitative impact of one or more implemented COVID-19 policies on direct SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 outcomes. After searching PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published on November 26, 2020 or earlier and screening, all studies were reviewed by three reviewers first independently and then to consensus. The review tool was based on previously developed and released review guidance for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation, assessing what impact evaluation method was used, graphical display of outcomes data, functional form for the outcomes, timing between policy and impact, concurrent changes to the outcomes, and an overall rating.

ResultsAfter 102 articles were identified as potentially meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 36 published articles that evaluated the quantitative impact of COVID-19 policies on direct COVID-19 outcomes. The majority (n=23/36) of studies in our sample examined the impact of stay-at-home requirements. Nine studies were set aside because the study design was considered inappropriate for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation (n=8 pre/post; n=1 cross-section), and 27 articles were given a full consensus assessment. 20/27 met criteria for graphical display of data, 5/27 for functional form, 19/27 for timing between policy implementation and impact, and only 3/27 for concurrent changes to the outcomes. Only 1/27 studies passed all of the above checks, and 4/27 were rated as overall appropriate. Including the 9 studies set aside, reviewers found that only four of the 36 identified published and peer-reviewed health policy impact evaluation studies passed a set of key design checks for identifying the causal impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes.

DiscussionThe reviewed literature directly evaluating the impact of COVID-19 policies largely failed to meet key design criteria for inference of sufficient rigor to be actionable by policy-makers. This was largely driven by the circumstances under which policies were passed making it difficult to attribute changes in COVID-19 outcomes to particular policies. More reliable evidence review is needed to both identify and produce policy-actionable evidence, alongside the recognition that actionable evidence is often unlikely to be feasible. Effects of repeated injection of 1% lidocaine vs. radial extra-corporeal shock wave therapy for treating myofascial trigger points: a randomized controlled trial Background and ObjectivesThis study tested the hypothesis that treatment of myofascial trigger points (MTrPs) in the upper trapezius muscle (UTM) with repeated injection of 1% lidocaine results in better alleviation of muscular stiffness and soreness as well as improved metabolism in the hypercontracted MTrP area than treatment with radial extracorporeal shock wave therapy (rESWT).

Materials and MethodsA single-blinded, prospective, randomized controlled trial was conducted on patients suffering from MTrPs in the UTM. Thirty patients were treated with repeated injection of 2 ml of 1% lidocaine (three injections; one injection per week). Another 30 patients were treated with rESWT (three treatment sessions; one treatment session per week; 2000 radial extracorporeal shock waves per treatment session; positive energy flux density = 0.10 mJ/mm2). The primary outcome measure was pain severity using the VAS score. The secondary outcome measures included muscle elasticity index, pressure pain threshold and neck disability index. Evaluation was performed at baseline (T1), 15-30 minutes after the first treatment in order to register immediate treatment effects (T2), before the second treatment (i.e., one week after baseline) (T3) and one week after the third treatment (i.e., four weeks after baseline) (T4).

ResultsThere were no statistically significant differences in the primary and secondary outcome measures between the patients in the lidocaine arm and the patients in the rESWT arm at T1 and T4. Within the arms, the mean differences of all outcomes were statistically significant (P < 0.001) when comparing the data obtained at T1 with the data obtained at T3 and the data obtained at T4.

ConclusionsThe results of this pilot study suggest that the use of rESWT in patients with MTrPs in the UTM is safe and leads to reduced pain and improved muscle elasticty, pressure pain threshold and neck disability index, without adverse effects. Larger trials are necessary to verify this. Clinicians should consider rESWT instead of injections of lidocaine in the treatment of MTrPs in the UTM. Analysis of MRI-derived spleen iron in the UK Biobank identifies genetic variation linked to iron homeostasis and erythrocyte morphology Aging, and the pathogenesis of many common diseases, involves iron homeostasis. A key role in iron homeostasis is played by the spleen, which is the largest filter of the blood and performs iron reuptake from old or damaged erythrocytes. Despite this important role, spleen iron content has not been measured previously in a large, population-based cohort. In this study, we quantify spleen iron in 41,764 participants of the UK Biobank using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We find that epidemiologic and environmental factors such as increased age, higher red meat consumption and lower alcohol intake correlate with higher spleen iron. Through genome-wide association study, we identify genetic associations between spleen iron and common variation at seven loci, including in two hereditary spherocytosis (HS) genes, ANK1 and SPTA1. HS-causing mutations in these genes are associated with lower reticulocyte volume and increased reticulocyte percentage, while our common alleles are associated with increased expression of ANK1 and SPTA1 in blood and with larger reticulocyte volume and reduced reticulocyte percentage. As genetic modifiers, these common alleles may explain mild spherocytosis phenotypes observed in some HS allele carriers. Further, we identify an association between spleen iron and MS4A7, which colocalizes with a quantitative trait locus for MS4A7 alternative splicing in whole blood, and with monocyte count and fraction. Through quantification of spleen iron in a large human cohort, we extend our understanding of epidemiological and genetic factors associated with iron recycling and erythrocyte morphology. Virtual reality intervention alleviates dyspnea in patients recovering from COVID pneumonia BackgroundImmersive virtual reality (iVR)-based digital therapeutics (DTx) are gaining clinical attention in the field of pain management. Based on known analogies between pain and dyspnea, we investigated the effects of visual-respiratory feedback, on persistent dyspnea in patients recovering from COVID-19 pneumonia.

MethodsWe performed a controlled, randomized, single-blind, cross-over clinical study to evaluate an iVR-based intervention to alleviate dyspnea in patients recovering from COVID-19 pneumonia. Included patients reported persistent dyspnea ([&ge;]5 on a 10-point scale) and preserved cognitive function (MoCA>24). Assignment was random and concealed. Patients received synchronous (intervention) or asynchronous (control) feedback of their breathing, embodied via a gender-matched virtual body. Outcomes were assessed using questionnaires and breathing recordings. COVVR is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04844567).

FindingsStudy enrollment was open between November 2020 and April 2021. Twenty-six patients were enrolled (27% women; age: median=55, interquartile range (IQR)=18). Data were available for 24 of 26 patients. The median (IQR) rating on a 7-point Likert-scale of breathing comfort improved from 1(2) at baseline, to 2(1) for synchronous feedback, but remained unchanged at 1(1.5) for asynchronous feedback (p<0.05) between iVR conditions). Moreover, 91.2% of all patients were satisfied with the intervention (p<0.0001) and 66.7% perceived it as beneficial for their breathing (p<0.05). No adverse events were reported.

InterpretationBased on these findings, our iVR-based DTx presents a feasible and safe respiratory rehabilitation tool that improves breathing comfort in patients recovering from COVID-19 infection presenting with persistent dyspnea. Future research should investigate the DTxs generalizability to persistent dyspnea with other etiologies and its potential for preventing chronification.

FundingMarie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2019 894111/ RESPVR), Bertarelli Foundation The Association of Opening K-12 Schools with the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThis paper empirically examines how the opening of K-12 schools and colleges is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. Using data on foot traffic and K-12 school opening plans, we analyze how an increase in visits to schools and opening schools with different teaching methods (in-person, hybrid, and remote) is related to the 2-weeks forward growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our debiased panel data regression analysis with a set of county dummies, interactions of state and week dummies, and other controls shows that an increase in visits to both K-12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K-12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the positive association of K-12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These results have a causal interpretation in a structural model with unobserved county and time confounders. Sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to timing assumptions and alternative specifications.