Excess Mortality probably due to COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan between August and October, 2020 BackgroundNo remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.

ObjectWe sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.

MethodWe applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through October, 2021 for the whole of Japan and up through August, 2021 for Tokyo.

ResultsResults in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, 1323 excess mortality was detected

Discussion and ConclusionWe detected substantial excess mortality in Japan in August and September, 2021 and in Tokyo in August, 2021. It might be important to continue to monitor excess mortality of COVID-19 carefully hereafter.
Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique The COVID-19 pandemic has undergone frequent and rapid changes in its local and global infection rates, driven by governmental measures, or the emergence of new viral variants. The reproduction number Rt indicates the average number of cases generated by an infected person at time t and is a key indicator of the spread of an epidemic. A timely estimation of Rt is a crucial tool to enable governmental organizations to adapt quickly to these changes and assess the consequences of their policies. The EpiEstim method is the most widely accepted method for estimating Rt. But it estimates Rt with a significant temporal delay. Here, we propose a new method, EpiInvert, that shows good agreement with EpiEstim, but that provides estimates of Rt several days in advance. We show that Rt can be estimated by inverting the renewal equation linking Rt with the observed incidence curve of new cases, it. Our signal processing approach to this problem yields both Rt and a restored it corrected for the "weekend effect" by applying a deconvolution + denoising procedure. The implementations of the EpiInvert and EpiEstim methods are fully open-source and can be run in real-time on every country in the world, and every US state through a web interface at www.ipol.im/epiinvert.

Significance StatementBased on a signal processing approach we propose a method to compute the reproduction number Rt, the transmission potential of an epidemic over time. Rt is estimated by minimizing a functional that enforces: (i) the ability to produce an incidence curve it corrected of the weekly periodic bias produced by the "weekend effect", obtained from Rt through a renewal equation; (ii) the regularity of Rt. A good agreement is found between our Rt estimate and the one provided by the currently accepted method, EpiEstim, except our method predicts Rt several days closer to present. We provide the mathematical arguments for this shift. Both methods, applied every day on each country, can be compared at www.ipol.im/epiinvert.
Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging of neonatal Spinal Cord in clinical routine Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging (DKI) has undisputed advantages over more classical diffusion Magnetic Resonance Imaging (dMRI), as witnessed by a fast-increasing number of clinical applications and software packages widely adopted in brain imaging. However, in the neonatal setting, DKI is still largely underutilized in Spinal Cord (SC) imaging because of its inherently demanding technological requirements.

Due to its extreme sensitivity to non-gaussian diffusion, DKI proves particularly suitable for detecting complex, subtle, fast microstructural changes occurring in this area at this early and critical stage of development, and not identifiable with only DTI. Given the multiplicity of congenital anomalies of the spinal canal, their crucial effect on later developmental outcome, and the close interconnection between SC region and the above brain, managing to apply such a method to neonatal cohort becomes of utmost importance.

This study will (i) review the current methodological challenges associated with application of advanced dMRI methods like DKI in early infancy, (ii) illustrate the first semi-automated pipeline built on Spinal Cord Toolbox (SCT) for handling with DKI data of neonatal SC, from acquisition setting to estimation of diffusion measures, through accurate adjustment of processing algorithms customized for adult SC, and (iii) present preliminary results of its application in a pilot clinical case study.

Results of this application agree with findings achieved in a corresponding adult survey, thus confirming validity of adopted pipeline and diagnostic value of DKI in pediatrics. Development of machine learning models for the prediction of complications after colorectal and small intestine surgery in psychiatric and non-psychiatric patient collectives (P-Study) Psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases are an increasingly cumbersome burden for the medical system. Indeed, hospital costs associated with mental health conditions have been constantly on the rise in recent years. Moreover, psychiatric conditions are likely to have a negative effect on the treatment of other medical conditions and surgical outcomes, in addition to their direct effects on the overall quality of life. Our study aims to investigate the impact of preoperative Risk factor, psychiatric and psychosomatic diseases on the outcomes of colorectal surgery and length of hospital stay via predictive modeling techniques.

MethodPatient data will be collected from several participating national and international surgical centers The machine learning models will be calculated and coded, but also published according to the TRIPOD guidelines (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis).

ResultIt is conceivable to arrive at generalizable models predicting the abovementioned endpoints through large amounts of data from several centers. The models will be subsequently deployed as a free-to-use web-based prediction tool using the Shiny environment [47]. The cost for the hosting server and digital infrastructure will be covered by Dr. Anas Taha. The sponsor will store the data for ten years. Evaluation of saliva self-collection devices for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics There is an urgent need to expand testing for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens as the global community struggles to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Current diagnostic methods can be affected by supply chain bottlenecks and require the assistance of medical professionals, impeding the implementation of large-scale testing. Self-collection of saliva may solve these problems, as it can be completed without specialized training and uses generic materials. In this study, we observed thirty individuals who self-collected saliva using four different collection devices and analyzed their feedback. Two of these devices, a funnel and bulb pipette, were used to evaluate at-home saliva collection by 60 individuals. All devices enabled the safe, unsupervised self-collection of saliva. The quantity and quality of the samples received were acceptable for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing, as determined by RNase P detection. Here, we demonstrate inexpensive, generic, buffer free collection devices suitable for unsupervised and home saliva self-collection. Macular vascular complexity analysis of diabetes mellitus by swept-source optical coherence tomographic angiography PurposeTo evaluate the associations of retinal vascular complexity features, including fractal dimension (FD) and blood vessel tortuosity (BVT), with the severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) by using noninvasive optical coherence tomographic angiography (OCTA).

MethodsThis prospective cross-sectional study recruited ocular-treatment-naive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) registered in the community of Guangzhou, China. OCTA was used to obtain the measurements of FD and BVT in the superficial capillary plexus (SCP) and the deep capillary plexus (DCP). Univariate and multivariate linear regression was used to analyse the correlation of FD and BVT in different layers with DR severity.

ResultsA total of 1282 patients with DM (1282 eyes), with a mean age of 64.2{+/-}7.8 years, were included. FD in the DCP decreased and BVT in the DCP increased in DR patients compared to non-DR patients, even after adjusting for confounding factors (P< 0.05). Trend analysis showed a significant decrease in the FD values as the DR progressed, while the BVT progressively increased with worsening DR severity (P< 0.01). The FD in DCP had a statistically significant positive correlation with FD in SCP and a negative correlation with BVT in SCP and BVT in DCP in all of the participants, including the non-DR group, moderate DR group and severe DR group (P< 0.01).

ConclusionFD and BVT determined using OCTA might be useful parameters for objectively distinguishing DR from non-DR and indicating DR progression. Evaluation of Clinical Threshold Policies for Cataract Surgery and the Regional Variation in Rates of Surgery Background/AimsTo characterise the national patterns in rates of cataract surgery across England, review clinical thresholds against NICE guidance, and determine how far variable access to cataract surgery is attributable to regional variation in policy stringency and social deprivation.

Methods127 Clinical Commissioning Groups ("CCGs") provided cataract surgery data and threshold policies in response to a Freedom of Information request. Local cataract surgery rates were grouped by threshold stringency and analysed on an age group-corrected basis. ANOVA testing was used to assess effect of policy stringency on regional rates of cataract surgery.

ResultsIn England, rates of cataract surgery vary threefold across CCGs, from 1,980 to 6,427 per 100,000 population over 60, with a standard deviation (784.76) of 22% of the mean value, 3,598. Threshold policies vary across CCGs: 33 had no policy, 45 utilised policies accessible on the basis of Quality of Life ("QoL") impact, and 39, against NICE guidance, required a Visual Acuity ("VA") threshold be exceeded. Rates of surgery by CCG were negatively correlated with restrictiveness of policy ({eta}2=0.18, p<0.01), and positively correlated with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), (r2{square}={square}0.11, p<0.01). Prior approval processes are not significantly associated with reduced rates of surgery.

ConclusionOver two-thirds of CCGs continue to use threshold-based policies for access to cataract surgery, with one-third doing so solely on the basis of VA requirements, despite NICE guidance to the contrary. For NHS operations, variation in policy restrictiveness accounts for more of the variation in surgery rates than socioeconomic deprivation. Effects of Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists on Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes: A Meta-analysis and Meta-regression Analysis AimsCardiovascular and renal effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have been inconsistent in cardiovascular outcome trials, and factors associated with the efficacy of GLP-1RAs remain to be clarified. Here, we evaluate the cardiovascular and renal outcomes with GLP-1RAs and associations between these outcomes and HbA1c or weight reduction.

Materials and MethodsWe searched PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL for randomized, placebo-controlled trials of GLP1-RAs reporting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; a composite of cardiovascular mortality, stroke, and myocardial infarction) as the primary outcome. We conducted a meta-regression analysis of primary and secondary outcomes with HbA1c or weight reduction following a meta-analysis with a random-effects model for these outcomes.

ResultsWe extracted data of 60,800 individuals from eight eligible studies (ELIXA, LEADER, SUSTAIN-6, EXSCEL, HARMONY, PIONEER 6, REWIND, and AMPLITUDE-O). GLP-1RAs reduced MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80-0.93; P < 0.001) and secondary outcomes including the composite renal outcome (0.80; 0.73-0.87; P < 0.001). In meta-regression analysis, every 1% reduction in HbA1c was associated with 26% and 35% decreases in the logarithm of HR of MACE (P = 0.044; R2 = 0.65) and the composite renal outcome (P = 0.040; R2 = 0.85), respectively. On the contrary, weight reduction was not associated with any outcome, including MACE (P = 0.390).

ConclusionsThe reduction in HbA1c, but not body weight, is associated with cardiovascular and renal outcomes. The magnitude of HbA1c reduction can be a surrogate for cardiovascular and renal benefits of treatment with GLP-1RAs. What delirium detection tools are used in routine clinical practice in the United Kingdom? Survey results from 91% of acute healthcare organisations. PurposeOur aim was to collect information on delirium assessment processes and pathways in non-intensive care settings in the United Kingdom (UK).

MethodsWe sent a Freedom of Information request to 169 UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals, trusts and health boards (units) in July 2020 to obtain data on usage of delirium assessment tools in clinical practice and delirium pathways or guidelines.

ResultsWe received responses from 154/169 units (91% response rate). Of these, 146/154 (95%) units reported use of formal delirium assessment processes and 131/154 (85%) units had guidelines or pathways in place. The 4  As Test (4AT) was the most widely used tool, with 117/146 (80%) units reporting use. The Confusion Assessment Method was used in 65/146 (45%) units, and the Single Question to identify Delirium (SQiD) in 52/146 (36%) units.

ConclusionsOur findings show that the 4AT is the most commonly used tool in the UK, with 80% of units reporting use. This study adds to our knowledge of real-world uptake of delirium detection methods at scale. Future studies should evaluate real-world implementation of delirium assessment tools further via (i) tool completion rates and (ii) rates of positive scores against the expected prevalence delirium in the clinical population concerned.

KEY SUMMARY POINTSO_ST_ABSAimC_ST_ABSTo seek information on delirium assessment processes and pathways in non-intensive clinical care settings in the United Kingdom (UK), and to assess usage of specific delirium assessment tools: the 4  As Test (4AT), Confusion Assessment Method and Single Question to identify Delirium (SQiD).

FindingsIn total, 95% of National Health Service (NHS) units (hospitals, trusts and health boards) reported use of formal delirium assessment processes and 85% of units had guidelines or pathways in place. The 4AT was the most widely used tool, with 80% of units reporting use; the Confusion Assessment Method was reportedly used in 45% of units and the SQiD in 36% of units.

MessageThis study shows real-world, large-scale uptake of delirium detection methods and delirium guidelines in UK hospitals, which contributes to ongoing efforts to improve delirium care. Subpopulation-specific Machine Learning Prognosis for Underrepresented Patients with Double Prioritized Bias Correction Many clinical datasets are intrinsically imbalanced, dominated by overwhelming majority groups. Off-the-shelf machine learning models that optimize the prognosis of majority patient types (e.g., healthy class) may cause substantial errors on the minority prediction class (e.g., disease class) and demographic subgroups (e.g., Black or young patients). For example, our work found that missed death cases are 3.14 times higher than missed survival cases in a mortality prediction model. In the typical one-machine-learning-model-fits-all paradigm, racial and age disparities are likely to exist, but unreported. What makes it worse is the deceptive nature of widely used whole-population metrics, such as AUC-ROC. We show that some metrics fail to reflect serious prediction deficiencies. To mitigate representational biases, we design a double prioritized (DP) bias correction technique. Our method trains customized models for specific ethnicity or age groups, a substantial departure from the one-model-predicts-all convention. We report our findings on four prognosis tasks over two imbalanced clinical datasets. DP reduces relative disparities among race and age groups, 5.6% to 86.8% better than the 8 existing sampling solutions being compared, in terms of the minority class' recall. Patterns of brain degeneration in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis Recurrent neuroinflammation in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) is thought to lead to neurodegeneration, resulting in progressive disability. Repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain provides non-invasive measures of atrophy over time, a key marker of neurodegeneration. This study investigates regional neurodegeneration of the brain in early-stage RRMS using volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM).

RRMS patients (N=354) underwent 3T structural MRI at diagnosis and 1-year follow-up, as part of the Scottish multicentre  FutureMS study. MRI data were processed using FreeSurfer to derive volumetrics, and FSL for VBM (grey matter (GM) only), to establish patterns of change in GM and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) over time throughout the cerebrum, cerebellum and brainstem.

Volumetric analyses showed a decrease over time (q<0.05) in bilateral cortical GM and NAWM, multiple subcortical structures, cerebellar GM and the brainstem. Additionally, NAWM and GM volume decreased respectively in the following cortical regions, frontal: 14 out of 28 regions and 17/28; temporal: 18/18 and 15/18; parietal: 14/14 and 11/14; occipital: 7/8 and 8/8. Left GM and NAWM asymmetry was observed in the frontal lobe. GM VBM analysis showed three major clusters of decrease over time: 1) temporal lobe and subcortical areas, 2) cerebellum, 3) anterior cingulum and supplementary motor cortex; and four smaller clusters within the occipital lobe.

Widespread neurodegeneration was observed in early-stage RRMS; particularly in the brainstem, cerebellar GM, and subcortical and occipital-temporal regions. Volumetric and VBM results emphasise different as well as overlapping patterns of longitudinal change, and provide potential response markers for existing therapies and trials of neuroprotective agents. Short Practical Regimen of Acupuncture for Melasma: A Prospective Cohort Study in a Tertiary Hospital in Thailand BackgroundMelasma is a common skin pigmentation disorder. Acupuncture shows benefits for patients with melasma, although no standardized method or optimal number of sessions have been determined.

ObjectiveTo comparatively assess clinical outcomes of melasma between five vs ten standard acupuncture sessions.

MethodsWe performed a prospective observational cohort study in all melasma patients at the Acupuncture Clinic, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. All patients were treated with standard acupuncture procedure twice a week and were evaluated after the fifth and the tenth sessions of acupuncture, with a follow-up one week after the last session. Participants were divided into two treatment groups: Groups A and B received five and ten acupuncture sessions respectively. Melasma outcomes were assessed by using the Melanin Index (MI), Melasma Area and Severity Index (MASI), patient-reported improvement scores and acupuncture-related adverse events.

ResultsOf 113 participants, 67 received five sessions of acupuncture treatment while 39 received ten sessions. 7 participants did not finish treatment. After five sessions of acupuncture in Group A, the mean MI decreased by 28.7 (95%CI -38.5 to -18.8), whereas the median MASI decreased by 3.4 (-6.9, -1.2) points. After ten sessions of acupuncture in Group B, the mean MI decreased by 31.3 (95%CI -45.0 to -17.6), whereas the median MASI decreased by 5.4 (-9.9, - 3.0) points. The first five sessions of acupuncture had a higher effect on the change in magnitude than the last five sessions, although there was no statistically significant difference. However, ten-session of acupuncture, had not reached the peak benefit on melasma yet. Further studies should be done with a higher number of sessions to determine the optimal rounds of treatment. Twenty-nine participants reported minor side effects, mostly consisting of persistent pain and small hematoma. Group B had RR of having adverse events 1.8 times (95% CI 1.0-3.4) compared to group A.

ConclusionAcupuncture has a potential dose-response effect on clinical and patient-reported melasma outcomes with minor side effects. Variability in proteoglycan biosynthetic genes reveals new facets of heparan sulfates diversity. A systematic review and analysis Proteoglycans are complex macromolecules formed of glycosaminoglycan chains covalently linked to core proteins through a linker tetrasaccharide common to heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPG) and chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans (CSPG). Biosynthesis of a single proteoglycan requires the expression of dozens of genes, which together create the large structural and functional diversity reflected by the numerous diseases or syndromes associated to their genetic variability. Among proteoglycans, HSPG are the most structurally and functionally complex. To decrease this complexity, we retrieved and linked information on pathogenic variants, polymorphism, expression, and literature databases for 50 genes involved in the biosynthesis of HSPG core proteins, heparan sulfate (HS) chains, and their linker tetrasaccharide. This resulted in a new gene organization and biosynthetic pathway representation in which the phenotypic continuum of disorders as linkeropathies and other pathologies could be predictable. Moreover, ubiquitous NDST1, GLCE, HS2ST1, and HS6ST1 appeared to generate ubiquitous heparan sulfate (HS) sequences essential for normal development and homeostasis, whereas the tissue restricted NDST2-4, HS6ST2-3, and HS3ST1-6 appeared to generate specialized HS sequences mainly involved in responsiveness to stimuli. Supported by data on genetic polymorphism and clinical variants, we afford a new vision of HSPG involvement in homeostasis, disease, vulnerability to disease, and behavioral disorders. Strain-resolved analysis in a randomized trial of antibiotic pretreatment and maintenance dose delivery mode with fecal microbiota transplant for ulcerative colitis Fecal microbiota transplant is a promising therapy for ulcerative colitis. Parameters maximizing effectiveness and tolerability are not yet clear, and it is not known how import the transmission of donor microbes to patients is. Here (clinicaltrails.gov: NCT03006809) we have tested the effects of antibiotic pretreatment and compared two modes of maintenance dose delivery, capsules versus enema, in a randomized, pilot, open-label, 2x2 factorial design with 22 patients analyzed with mild to moderate UC. Clinically, the treatment was well-tolerated with favorable safety profile. Of patients who received antibiotic pretreatment, 6 of 11 experienced remission after six weeks of treatment, versus 2 of 11 non-pretreated patients (odds ratio: 1.69, 95% confidence interval: -0.25 to 3.62). No significant differences were found between maintenance dosing via capsules versus enema. In exploratory analyses, microbiome turnover at both the species and strain levels was extensive and significantly more pronounced in the pretreated patients. Associations were also revealed between taxonomic turnover and changes in the composition of primary and secondary bile acids. Together these findings suggest that antibiotic pretreatment contributes to microbiome engraftment and possibly clinical effectiveness, and validate longitudinal strain tracking as a powerful way to monitor the dynamics and impact of microbiota transfer. Using controlled interrupted time series to estimate the population-level effects of Ontario's recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services BackgroundOntario recently implemented overdose prevention sites and consumption and treatment services (OPS/CTS) to stem the harms of the opioid epidemic. We tested whether operating any site improved local opioid-related health service use and mortality rates.

MethodsWe used monthly counts of all opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths between January 2014 and December 2020 for our outcomes. For each public health unit (PHU) that implemented any OPS/CTS, we created a synthetic control as a weighted combination of unexposed PHU. We estimated the population-level effects of operating any site using controlled interrupted time series with segmented regression and adjusted for time varying confounders (i.e. OPS/CTS capacity, naloxone kits distributed, and persons receiving opioid agonist treatment per 100,000 population). We repeated the analysis using a multiple baseline approach to estimate province-wide effects.

ResultsBetween 2017 and 2020, nine out of 34 PHU implemented at least one OPS/CTS. ED visit (RR=0.96, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.99) and hospitalization (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98) trends declined faster among treated units. Improvements in local ED visit rate trends were observed for the majority of treated units. Hospitalization rates declined faster for London (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.95 - 0.99) and Niagara (RR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92 - 0.98); while mortality rates declined faster for Hamilton (RR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 - 0.96), Niagara (RR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.94 - 0.99) and Guelph (RR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.88 - 1.00).

ConclusionAlthough OPS/CTS are not sufficient to stem the harms of the opioid overdose epidemic on their own, they play a critical role in local harm reduction strategies. An observational study of the association between COVID-19 vaccination rates and entry into the "Million Dollar Vax" competition ObjectivesAre financial incentives from entry in a vaccine lottery associated with a higher probability of vaccination for COVID-19?

DesignA cross-sectional study with adjustment for covariates using logistic regression

SettingOctober and November 2021, Australia.

Participants2,375 respondents of the Taking the Pulse of the Nation Survey

InterventionsParticipation in the Million Dollar Vaccination Lottery

Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe proportion of respondents who had any vaccination, a first dose only, or second dose compared to all other respondents

ResultsThose who participated in the lottery were 2.27 times more likely to be vaccinated after the lottery opened on October 1st than those who did not. This was driven by those receiving second doses. Lottery participants were 1.38 times more likely to receive their first dose after October 1st and 2.31 times more likely to receive their second dose after October 1st.

ConclusionsLottery participation is associated with a higher vaccination rate, with this effect dominated by a higher rate of second doses. There is a smaller insignificant difference for those receiving a first dose, suggesting lotteries may not be as effective at reducing vaccine hesitancy, compared to  nudging people to get their second dose more quickly.

Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIWe use a nationally representative sample of individuals.
C_LIO_LIWe distinguish between the association between lottery participation and first and second doses.
C_LIO_LIWe adjust for a rich set of individual characteristics associated with vaccination status
C_LIO_LIThe strong association for second dose vaccinations may reflect some individuals who had already had scheduled their second dose after the lottery opened, potentially leading to an overestimate of the association.
C_LI

Ethics statementThis study was approved by the University of Melbourne Faculty of Business and Economics & Melbourne Business School Human Ethics Advisory Group (Ref: 2056754.1). Simple risk scores to predict hospitalization or death in outpatients with COVID-19 including the Omicron variant ImportanceOutpatient physicians need guidance to support their clinical decisions regarding management of patients with COVID-19, in particular whether to hospitalize a patient and if managed as an outpatient, how closely to follow them.

ObjectiveTo develop and prospectively validate a clinical prediction rule to predict the likelihood of hospitalization for outpatients with COVID-19 that does not require laboratory testing or imaging.

DesignDerivation and temporal validation of a clinical prediction rule, and prospective validation of two externally derived clinical prediction rules.

SettingPrimary and Express care clinics in a Pennsylvania health system.

ParticipantsPatients 12 years and older presenting to outpatient clinics who had a positive polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19.

Main outcomes and measuresClassification accuracy (percentage in each risk group hospitalized) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

ResultsOverall, 7.4% of outpatients in the early derivation cohort (5843 patients presenting before 3/1/21) and 5.5% in the late validation cohort (3806 patients presenting 3/1/21 or later) were ultimately hospitalized. We developed and temporally validated three risk scores that all included age, dyspnea, and the presence of comorbidities, adding respiratory rate for the second score and oxygen saturation for the third. All had very good overall accuracy (AUC 0.77 to 0.78) and classified over half of patients in the validation cohort as very low risk with a 1.7% or lower likelihood of hospitalization. Two externally derived risk scores identified more low risk patients, but with a higher overall risk of hospitalization (2.8%).

Conclusions and relevanceSimple risk scores applicable to outpatient and telehealth settings can identify patients with very low (1.6% to 1.7%), low (5.2% to 5.9%), moderate (14.7% to 15.6%), and high risk (32.0% to 34.2%) of hospitalization. The Lehigh Outpatient COVID Hospitalization (LOCH) risk score is available online as a free app: https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/LehighRiskScore/. GWAS of Retinal Vessel Tortuosity Identifies 173 Novel Loci Revealing Genes and Pathways Associated with Vascular Pathomechanics and Cardiometabolic Diseases BackgroundFundus images allow for non-invasive assessment of the retinal vasculature whose features provide important information on health. Blood vessel tortuosity is a morphological feature associated with many diseases including hypertension.

MethodsWe analyzed 116 639 fundus images of suitable quality from 63 662 participants from three cohorts, namely the UK Biobank (n = 62 751), SKIPOGH (n = 397), and OphtalmoLaus (n = 512). We used a fully automated image processing pipeline to annotate vessels and a deep learning algorithm to determine the vessel type, characterizing these subjects in terms of their median retinal vessel tortuosity specific to arteries and to veins. Tortuosity was measured by the distance factor (the length of a vessel segment over its chord length), as well as measures that integrate over vessel curvature. Using these measures as traits, we performed the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of vessel tortuosity to date. We assessed gene set enrichment using the novel high-precision statistical method PascalX.

ResultsHigher tortuosity was significantly associated with higher incidence of angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis, and hypertension. We identified 175 significantly associated genetic loci in the UK Biobank; 173 of these were novel and 4 replicated in our second, much smaller, meta-cohort. We estimated heritability at [~]25% using linkage disequilibrium score regression. Vessel type specific GWAS revealed 114 loci for arteries and 63 for veins. Genes with significant association signals included COL4A2, ACTN4, LGALS4, LGALS7, LGALS7B, TNS1, MAP4K1, EIF3K, CAPN12, ECH1, and SYNPO2. These tortuosity genes were overexpressed in arteries and heart muscle and linked to pathways related to the structural properties of the vasculature. We demonstrated that tortuosity loci served pleiotropic functions as cardiometabolic disease variants and risk factors. Concordantly, Mendelian randomization revealed causal effects between tortuosity, BMI and LDL.

ConclusionsSeveral alleles associated with retinal vessel tortuosity point to a common genetic architecture of this trait with cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome. Our results shed new light on the genetics of vascular diseases and their pathomechanisms and highlight how GWASs and heritability can be used to improve phenotype extraction from high-dimensional data, such as images.

Clinical PerspectiveO_ST_ABSWhat is new?C_ST_ABSO_LIWe automatically estimated arterial and venous tortuosity in over 100k retinal fundus images using image analysis and deep learning.
C_LIO_LIGWAS revealed 173 novel loci.
C_LIO_LIMendelian randomization showed that increased venous tortuosity reduces BMI whereas elevated LDL levels reduce the tortuosity of both arteries and veins.
C_LIO_LIMeasuring tortuosity in terms of the distance factor, which is sensitive to total vessel elongation, had higher heritability and more associated loci than other tortuosity measures that are sensitive to local vessel bending.
C_LI

What are the clinical implications?O_LITortuosity genes were overexpressed in the aorta, tibial artery, coronary artery, and in two heart tissues.
C_LIO_LIHigher tortuosity was associated with higher incidence of angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis and hypertension.
C_LIO_LIWe demonstrated a shared genetic architecture between retinal tortuosity and certain diseases related to the vasculature, and the associations included several cardiometabolic disease variants and risk factors. Further research is needed to investigate the potential of the retinal vessel tortuosity as a clinically relevant biomarker for cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome.
C_LIO_LIEnriched pathways include a well-known therapeutic target for ocular diseases (VEGFA-VEGFR2) affecting tissue remodeling. We highlight several transcription factors as interesting targets for further experimentation.
C_LI Airway management, procedural data, and mortality records of patients undergoing surgery for mucormycosis associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) In India, the second wave of coronavirus disease (COVID -19) was associated with a distinct surge in cases of invasive fungal infection with mucormycosis. This disease was seen typically in the sinonasal form in COVID-19 patients. Uncontrolled diabetes, steroid use in COVID-19 treatment, etc. were some of the postulated risk factors for the association of COVID 19 and Mucormycosis. The management plan of these cases included surgical debridement, systemic antifungal therapy, sugar control, and management of antifungal related systemic adverse effects. In this retrospective case record review, we aimed to evaluate the airway management plan, demographics, and overall outcomes in patients undergoing surgical resection for COVID-19 associated mucormycosis. Forty-one (71.9 %) patients had a diagnosis of sino-nasal mucormycosis, fourteen (24.6%) had a diagnosis of rhino-orbital mucormycosis, and 2 patients (3.5%) were diagnosed with palatal mucormycosis. Total 44 (77.19 %) patients had co-morbidities. The most common co-morbidity was Diabetes Mellitus 42 (73.6%), followed by hypertension 21 (36.84%) and Acute kidney injury 14 (28.07%). We used the intubation difficulty scale score to assess intubating conditions. Intubation was easy to slightly difficult in 53 out of 57 patients. In our study, mortality occurred in 7 (12.28 %) patients. The median mortality time was 60 (range, 27-74) days. The median time to hospital discharge was 53.5 (range,10-85) days. Managing COVID-19 on its own is challenging and additional mucormycosis can lead to increased morbidity and mortality. Despite challenges and risks, timely and meticulous interventions can reduce complications. The kidney releases a non-polymerizing form of Uromodulin in the urine and circulation that retains the external hydrophobic patch domain Uromodulin (Tamm-Horsfall protein, THP) is a glycoprotein uniquely produced in the kidney. It is released by cells of the thick ascending limbs (TAL) apically in the urine, and basolaterally in the renal interstitium and systemic circulation. Processing of mature urinary THP, which polymerizes into supra-molecular filaments, requires cleavage of an external hydrophobic patch (EHP) at the C terminus. However, THP in the circulation is not polymerized, and it remains unclear if non-aggregated forms of THP exist natively in the urine. We propose that an alternative processing path, which retains the EHP domain, can lead to a non-polymerizing form of THP. We generated an antibody that specifically recognizes THP with retained EHP (THP+EHP) and established its presence in the urine in a non-polymerized native state. Proteomic characterization of urinary THP+EHP revealed its C-terminus to end at F617. In the human kidney, THP+EHP was not only detected in TAL cells, but also diffusely in the renal parenchyma. Using immunoprecipitation followed by proteomic sequencing and immunoblotting, we then demonstrated that serum THP has also retained EHP. In a small cohort of patients at risk for acute kidney injury (AKI), admission urinary THP+EHP was significantly lower in patients who subsequently developed AKI during hospitalization. Our findings uncover novel insights into uromodulin biology by establishing the presence of an alternative path for cellular processing, which could explain the release of non-polymerizing THP in the circulation. Larger studies are needed to establish the utility of urinary THP+EHP as a sensitive biomarker of kidney health and susceptibility to injury. Impact of HIV Infection on COVID-19 Outcomes Among Hospitalized Adults in the U.S. BackgroundWhether HIV infection is associated with differences in clinical outcomes among people hospitalized with COVID-19 is uncertain.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of HIV infection on COVID-19 outcomes among hospitalized patients.

MethodsUsing the American Heart Associations COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease registry, we used hierarchical mixed effects models to assess the association of HIV with in-hospital mortality accounting for patient demographics and comorbidities and clustering by hospital. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiac events (MACE), severity of illness, and length of stay (LOS).

ResultsThe registry included 21,528 hospitalization records of people with confirmed COVID-19 from 107 hospitals in 2020, including 220 people living with HIV (PLWH). PLWH were younger (56.0+/-13.0 versus 61.3+/-17.9 years old) and more likely to be male (72.3% vs 52.7%), Non-Hispanic Black (51.4% vs 25.4%), on Medicaid (44.5% vs 24.5), and active tobacco users (12.7% versus 6.5%).

Of the study population, 36 PLWH (16.4%) had in-hospital mortality compared with 3,290 (15.4%) without HIV (Risk ratio 1.06, 95%CI 0.79-1.43; risk difference 0.9%, 95%CI -4.2 to 6.1%; p=0.71). After adjustment for age, sex, race, and insurance, HIV was not associated with in-hospital mortality (aOR 1.13; 95%CI 0.77-1.6; p 0.54) even after adding body mass index and comorbidities (aOR 1.15; 95%CI 0.78-1.70; p=0.48). HIV was not associated with MACE (aOR 0.99, 95%CI 0.69-1.44, p=0.91), severity of illness (aOR 0.96, 95%CI 0.62-1.50, p=0.86), or LOS (aOR 1.03; 95% CI 0.76-1.66, p=0.21).

ConclusionHIV was not associated with adverse outcomes of COVID-19 including in-hospital mortality, MACE, or severity of illness.

Condensed AbstractWe studied 21,528 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at 107 hospitals in AHAs COVID-19 registry to examine the association between HIV and COVID-19 outcomes. More patients with HIV were younger, male, non-Hispanic Black, on Medicaid and current smokers. HIV was not associated with worse COVID-19 in-hospital mortality (Risk ratio 1.06, 95%CI 0.79-1.43; p=0.71) even after adjustment (aOR 1.15; 95%CI 0.78-1.70; p=0.48). HIV was also not associated with MACE (aOR 0.99, 95%CI 0.69-1.44, p=0.91) or severity of illness (aOR 0.96, 95%CI 0.62-1.50, p=0.86. Our findings do not support that HIV is a major risk factor for adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Psychological factors associated with instrumental activities of daily living disability in older adults with knee osteoarthritis PurposeThe population of older adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA)-related disabilities is increasing globally. This study aimed to investigate the psychological factors associated with instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability in older adults with knee OA.

Materials and MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted on 179 patients with knee OA aged [&ge;] 65 years. The six-item short form of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS-6), the four-item short form of the Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ-4), and the fifteen-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) were used to assess psychological factors. IADL status was assessed using eight activity items. Participants were divided into IADL-disabled and non-disabled groups. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed with the IADL disability status as the dependent variable. The PCS-6, PSEQ-4, and GDS-15 tools were included as independent variables in the logistic regression model. Demographics, motor functions, and pain intensity were also included as confounders.

ResultsOf the total participants, 88 (49.1%) showed disability in conducting IADL. PSEQ-4 (odds ratio =0.90, 95%; confidence interval=0.82-0.99, p=0.02) was a significant independent variable among all psychological factors.

ConclusionOur study showed the importance of assessing self-efficacy using the PSEQ-4 in relation to IADL disability in older adults with knee OA. Decoding Neural Activity in Sulcal and White Matter Areas of the Brain to Accurately Predict Individual Finger Movement and Tactile Stimuli of the Human Hand Millions of people worldwide suffer motor or sensory impairment due to stroke, spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, traumatic brain injury, diabetes, and motor neuron diseases such as ALS (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis). A brain-computer interface (BCI), which links the brain directly to a computer, offers a new way to study the brain and potentially restore these losses in patients living with debilitating conditions. One of the challenges currently facing BCI technology, however, is how to minimize surgical risk. Minimally invasive techniques, such as stereoelectroencephalography (SEEG) have become more widely used in clinical applications since they can lead to fewer complications. SEEG electrodes also give access to sulcal and white matter areas of the brain but have not been widely studied in brain-computer interfaces. We therefore investigated the viability of using SEEG electrodes in a BCI for recording and decoding neural signals related to movement and the sense of touch and compared its performance to electrocorticography electrodes (ECoG) placed on gyri. Initial poor decoding performance and the observation that most neural modulation patterns were highly variable trial-to-trial and transient (significantly shorter than the sustained finger movements studied), led to the development of a feature selection method based on a repeatability metric using temporal correlation. An algorithm based on temporal correlation was developed to isolate features that consistently repeated (required for accurate decoding) and possessed information content related to movement or touch-related stimuli. We subsequently used these features, along with deep learning methods, to automatically classify various motor and sensory events for individual fingers with high accuracy. Repeating features were found in sulcal, gyral, and white matter areas and were predominantly phasic or phasic-tonic across a wide frequency range for both HD (high density) ECoG and SEEG recordings. These findings motivated the use of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are well-suited to handling both transient and sustained input features. Combining temporal correlation-based feature selection with LSTM yielded decoding accuracies of up to 92.04 +/-1.51% for hand movements, up to 91.69 +/-0.49% for individual finger movements, and up to 80.64 +/-1.64% for focal tactile stimuli to the finger pads and palm while using a relatively small number of SEEG electrodes. These findings may lead to a new class of minimally invasive brain-computer interface systems in the future, increasing its applicability to a wider variety of conditions. Observational study of changes in utilization and outcomes in non-invasive ventilation in COVID-19 RationaleThe role of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in severe COVID-19 remains a matter of debate.

ObjectivesTo determine the utilization and outcome of NIV in COVID-19 in an unbiased cohort.

MethodsObservational study of confirmed COVID-19 cases of claims data of the Local Health Care Funds comparing patients with non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) between spring versus autumn period 2020.

Measurements and Main ResultsNationwide cohort of 7490 cases (median/IQR age 70/60-79 years, 66% male) 3851 (51%) patients primarily received IMV without NIV, 1614 (22%) patients received NIV without subsequent intubation, and 1247 (17%) patients had NIV failure (NIV-F), defined by subsequent endotracheal intubation. The proportion of patients who received invasive MV decreased from 74% to 39% during the second period. Accordingly, the proportion of patients with NIV exclusively increased from 10% to 28%, and those failing NIV increased from 9% to 21%. Median length of hospital stay decreased from 26 to 22 days, and duration of MV decreased from 11.6 to 7.6 days. The NIV failure rate decreased from 49% to 42%. Overall mortality remained unchanged (51% versus 53%). Mortality was 39% with NIV-only, 52% with IMV and 66% with NIV-F with mortality rates steadily increasing from 58% in early NIV-F (day 1) to 75% in late NIV-F (>4 days).

ConclusionUtilization of NIV rapidly increased during the autumn period, which was associated with a reduced duration of MV, but not with overall mortality. High NIV-F rates are associated with increased mortality, particularly in late NIV-F.

FundingInstitutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Koln and the Federal Association of the Local Health Care Funds.

At a Glance CommentaryO_ST_ABSScientific Knowledge on the SubjectC_ST_ABSCurrent management of ventilatory support in COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure is heterogeneous. Despite increasing use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV), defining intubation criteria still remains a matter of uncertainty and discussion, especially with regard to the balance between the NIV benefits and the risk of NIV failure. In addition, robust data concerning the influence of the duration and failure of NIV on intubation and mortality rates are still missing, although the time span between initiation of NIV and subsequent intubation in case of respiratory failure progression is suggested to influence patient outcome.

What This Study Adds to the FieldThis is the first large observational study describing differences of ventilatory strategies between the spring and autumn period of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany and provides the in-hospital mortality rate of 7,490 patients who received mechanical ventilation. The increased utilization of NIV from 10% (first period) to 29% (second period) was associated with overall reduced durations of mechanical ventilation and length of hospital stay, but overall mortality remained comparably high and reached 51%, 53% respectively. Patients succeeding with NIV had lower mortality rates than those getting intubated without preceding NIV attempts, but those failing NIV had higher mortality rates, respectively, and this became even more predominant in late NIV failure. The present observational study shows the increasing role of NIV in the concert of ICU medicine related to COVID-19, but also clearly addresses its risks in addition to its benefits, both impacting on mortality. In depth analysis of patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates distinct clinical and immunological profiles Although the COVID-19 pandemic has left no country untouched there has been limited research to understand clinical and immunological responses in African populations. Here we comprehensively characterise patients hospitalised with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, and healthy community controls. PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants were more likely to receive dexamethasone and a beta-lactam antibiotic, and survive to hospital discharge than PCR-/IgG+ and PCR-/IgG-participants. PCR-/IgG+ participants exhibited a nasal and systemic cytokine signature analogous to PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants, but increased propensity for Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae colonisation. We did not find evidence that HIV co-infection in COVID-19 participants was associated with mortality or altered cytokine responses. The nasal immune signature in PCR-/IgG+ and PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants was distinct and predominated by chemokines and neutrophils. In addition, PCR-/IgG+ individuals with high COVID-19 clinical suspicion had inflammatory profiles analogous to PCR-confirmed disease and potentially represent a target population for COVID-19 treatment strategies.