Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS coronavirus 2 in Belgium - a serial prospective cross-sectional nationwide study of residual samples To assess the evolving SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and seroincidence related to the national lock-down in Belgium, a nationwide seroprevalence study, stratified by age, sex and region using 3000-4000 residual samples was performed during 7 periods between 30 March and 17 October 2020. Residual sera from ambulatory patients were analyzed for IgG antibodies against S1 proteins of SARS-CoV-2 with a semi-quantitative commercial ELISA. Weighted seroprevalence (overall, by age category and sex) and seroincidence during 7 consecutive periods were estimated for the Belgian population while accommodating test-specific sensitivity and specificity.

The weighted overall seroprevalence initially increased from 1.8% (95% CrI 1.0-2.6) to 5.3% (95% CrI 4.2-6.4), implying a seroincidence of 3.4% (95% CrI 2.4-4.6) between the 1st and 2nd collection period over a period of 3 weeks during the lockdown period (start lockdown mid March 2020). Thereafter, seroprevalence stabilized, however, significant decreases are observed when comparing the 3rd with the 5th and also with the 6th period resulting in negative seroincidence estimates after lockdown was lifted. We estimated for the last collection period mid October 2020 a weighted overall seroprevalence of 4.2% (95% CrI 3.1-5.2).

During lockdown, an initial small but increasing fraction of the Belgian population showed serologically detectable signs of exposure to SARS-CoV-2, which did not further increase when confinement measures eased and full lockdown was lifted.
Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis BackgroundThe vaccines developed in 2020-2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to prevent severity and deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations avoided by vaccines in older adults in Brazil.

MethodsWe fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations in older adults as a function of vaccination coverage and of casualties in younger adults. We then used this model to perform counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with earlier vaccination roll-out. We estimated direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios.

ResultsWe estimated that more than 165 thousand individuals above 60 y.o. were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 100 thousand hospitalisations could have been avoided if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 75 thousand lives were saved by vaccination in the period analysed for the same age group, and that additional 48 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian Government started the vaccination programme earlier.

ConclusionsOur estimates provide a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing suffering and loss of the older adults Brazilians. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic.

O_TEXTBOXKey messagesO_LIThe coronavirus pandemic affected more severely older adults, which presented the higher rates of hospitalisation and deaths related to COVID-19, leading most countries, as Brazil, to start the vaccination following a decreasing age scheme.
C_LIO_LIEvaluating a hypothetical scenario of the absence of vaccines, we estimated the number of hospitalisations and deaths that Brazil has prevented due to the vaccination roll-out applied to persons above 60 years old: {approx}167,000 hospitalisations did not occur and {approx}77,000 lives were saved due to the vaccines.
C_LIO_LIThe estimates for the number of lives saved and the avoided hospitalisations are a lower bound for the actual number because only the direct effects for the older adults were taken into account, and no herd immunity effect was considered.
C_LIO_LIEvaluating another hypothetical scenario, considering an eight weeks earlier rollout, Brazil could have saved a minimum of additional {approx}48,000 lives and avoided another {approx}100,000 hospitalisations compared to what happened.
C_LI

C_TEXTBOX
Estimating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Israel using aggregated counts The vaccination roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines in Israel has been highly successful. By February 22th, approximately 47% of the population has already been administered at least one dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Efforts to estimate the true real-world effectiveness of the vaccine have been hampered by disease dynamics and social-economic discrepancies. Here, using counts of positive and hospitalized cases of vaccinated individuals, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the vaccine effectiveness. Under an assumption of no effectiveness on the first two weeks after the 1st dose, we observe very low effectiveness on the third week. After the 2nd dose, on weeks 1 and 2 we find 73-85% effectiveness in reducing positive cases, hospitalizations, and severe cases, which increase to 89-97% effectiveness 14 days after the 2nd dose. As more granular data will be available, it will be possible to extract more exact estimates; however, the emerging evidence suggests that the vaccine is highly effective. Hepatic resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for the intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma：A cohort study BackgroundThe selection criterion for hepatic resection(HR) in intermediate-stage(IM) hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) is still controversial. We used real-world data to evaluate the overall survival (OS) treated with HR or TACE.

MethodsIn all, 942 patients with IM-HCC were categorized in HR and TACE groups. OS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards models, and propensity score- matched (PSM) analyses. The smooth curve was performed through the generalized additive model. The interaction test was performed to evaluate the HR impact on OS concerning risk factors. Also, we used multiple imputation to deal with the missing data.

ResultsTotally, 23.0% (n=225) of patients received HR. At a median overall survival of 23.7 months, HR was associated with the improved OS on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95%CI: 0.35, 0.58; after PSM: 0.56; 95%CI: 0.41, 0.77). Landmark analyses limited to long-term survivors of [&ge;] 6 months, [&ge;] 1, and [&ge;] 2 years demonstrated better OS with HR in all subsets (all P<0.05). After PSM analysis, however, HR increased 20% risk of death (HR, 1.20; 95%CI: 0.67, 2.15) in the subgroup of LDH [&le;]192 U/L (P for interaction = 0.037). Furthermore, the significant interaction was robust between the LDH and the HR with respect to 1-, 3-, and 5-year observed survival rate (all P<0.05).

ConclusionHepatic resection was superior to TACE for intermediate-stage HCC in the range of LDH level > 192 U/L. Moreover, TACE might be suitable for patients with LDH level [&le;] 192 U/L.

SynopsisO_LIHepatectomy was superior to TACE for BCLC-B HCC.
C_LIO_LIHepatectomy increased 20% risk of death for LDH < 192 U/L after matching.
C_LIO_LIA significant interaction was robust between LDH and with respect to hepatectomy the 1-, 3-, and 5-year observed survival rate.
C_LI Effectiveness of a short term induction regimen of a biosimilar Adalimumab in the long term management of symptomatic Ankylosing Spondylitis Symptomatic Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Community Based Proof of Concept Observational Study IntroductionCost and drug toxicity often deter prolonged therapeutic use of anti-TNF agents in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). A planned study was completed to endorse our clinic based observation of long term relief following short-term administration of anti-TNF agent.

Methods50 consenting patients with symptomatic active chronic AS under rheumatology care in a community clinic were enrolled. They had no past history of anti-TNF use. 40 mg standard biosimilar adalimumab (BS-ADA, Exemptia trade name)was injected subcutaneously every fortnight for six injections (10 weeks). Patients were monitored at several time points. Improvement was assessed at regular interval as per protocol which included standard indices (Bath and Assessment Spondyloarthritis International Society /ASAS). An intention to treat analysis with significant p<0.05 was carried out.

ResultsPatients showed early and substantial significant improvement in pain, NSAID requirement, function and in several indices (ASAS 20 & 40, ASAS partial remission, BASDAI, BASFI, ASDAS) which persisted after stopping injections. 84% and 52 % of patients respectively showed ASAS 20 improvement at week 12 and 48: corresponding ASAS partial remission 34% and 24%. Over 50% patients maintained prolonged improvement and provided proof of concept (defined a-priori). Serum Interleukin-6 assay showed a sharp reduction at 24 weeks. None developed TB or serious drug toxicity. 11 patients withdrew (mostly inadequate response). Absence of control was a limitation.

ConclusionA ten-week administration of biosimilar adalimumab in difficult to treat AS showed early substantial improvement which often persisted for 24 weeks. This unconventional strategy was socioeconomically appealing. It merits further validation and acceptance especially in resource strained settings. Distinct time courses and pathogenic contributions of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury in acute respiratory distress syndrome with COVID-19: evidence from circulating biomarkers The time course and specific contributions of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury to the pathogenesis of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the characteristics of circulating markers of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury in serum samples from eleven ARDS patients and ten non-ARDS patients, all with COVID-19. Our results indicates that the alveolar epithelial injury at the very early disease stage and the endothelial injury which continues to exacerbate during the later disease stage seem to be the hallmarks of ARDS with COVID-19. Macronutrient mass intake explains deferential weight and fat loss in isocaloric diets Differential weight and fat losses under isocaloric diets of distinct macronutrient composition are well-documented findings in obesity research.1-6 Such data are considered a result of inadequate methodology as it disagree with the energy balance theory.7 A recent mathematical analysis of this paradigm has found, however, serious analytical contradictions in its foundations.8 As an alternative, a mass balance model was proposed to explain the aforesaid body composition alterations. Here, we expand on this observation by contrasting both models. We show that mass balance explains a wide range of fending experiments including those concurring with the energy balance principle. The latter, however, is less flexible and results in poor forecasts in settings consistent with mass balance. The energy balance theory is thus an unsatisfactory model of body composition changes. Consequently, by shifting to a mass balance paradigm of obesity a much deeper understanding of this disease may follow in the near future. Current state of COVID-19 knowledge, attitude, practices, and associated factors among Bangladeshi food handlers from various food industries. While people around the world are terrified of the global pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and are dying for a permanent solution, undertaking preventive safety measures are said to be the most effective way to stay away from it. Peoples adherences to these measures are broadly dependent on their knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP). People working in the food industries must be extra cautious during this time because they are in close proximity to consumable items. The present study was designed to evaluate food handlers knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding COVID-19 in different food industries in Bangladesh. A number of 400 food handlers from 15 food industries took part in this online-based study. The information was collected from the participants through a questionnaire prepared in Google form. With a correct response rate of about 90% on average (knowledge 89.7%, attitude 93%, practices 88.2%), the participants showed an acceptable of KAP regarding COVID-19. Education and working experiences had a significant association with the total KAP scores (p < 0.05). The findings may assist public health professionals and practitioners in developing targeted strategies for implementing such studies in other industrial sectors and taking appropriate measures based on the KAP studies. Right Anterior Temporal Degeneration, Emotions, and Loss of Nonverbal Semantics: The Emotional Semantic Variant Frontotemporal Dementia It has been proposed that focal anterior temporal lobe (ATL) degeneration is a specific, unitary FTLD-TDP-related disease that initially preferentially affects the left or right hemisphere. Patients with early left ATL (lATL) atrophy show severe anomia and verbal semantic deficits and meet criteria for semantic variant primary progressive aphasia (svPPA) and semantic dementia, prompting appropriate neurological care. There is less consensus regarding the symptoms in right ATL (rATL) predominant cases, who most often present with behavioral and emotional changes leading to a misdiagnosis of a psychiatric disorder, and later of behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). Uncertainties regarding early symptoms and lack of an overarching framework continues to hinder proper diagnosis and care of patients with rATL disease. Here, we present symptom chronology, cognitive and socioemotional profiles of a large, well-characterized, longitudinally followed cohort of patients with rATL-predominant degeneration and propose new criteria and nosology for the syndrome.

We identified individuals with a clinical diagnosis of bvFTD or svPPA and a structural MRI (n=478). Based on neuroimaging criteria, we identified three groups: patients with rATL-predominant atrophy with relative sparing of the frontal lobes (n=46), patients with frontal-predominant atrophy with relative sparing of the rATL (n=79), and patients with lATL-predominant atrophy with relative sparing of the frontal lobes (n=75). Seventy-eight patients had undergone autopsy. We analyzed patients clinical, neuropsychological, genetic, anatomical, and pathological profiles.

In the rATL-predominant group, the earliest symptoms were loss of empathy (27%), person-specific semantic impairment (23%), and complex compulsions and rigid thought process (18%). On testing, this group exhibited greater impairments in emotional theory of mind, identifying famous people from names and face, and facial affect naming (despite preserved face perception) than the lATL- and frontal-predominant groups. The clinical features were highly sensitive (81%) and specific (84%) in differentiating rATL from bvFTD in the first three years of the disease. FTLD-TDP (84%) was the most common pathology.

Our results suggest that rATL-predominant degeneration is characterized by early loss of empathy and person-specific knowledge, deficits that are caused by progressive loss of semantic memory for concepts of social-emotional relevance. Although this syndrome exists along a clinical, anatomical, and pathological continuum with svPPA, patients present with progressive behavioral changes. To facilitate early identification and care in clinical and research settings, we propose specific diagnostic criteria and the term "emotional semantic variant frontotemporal dementia" to distinguish this syndrome from other forms of frontotemporal dementia. CD19+IgD+CD27- naive B Cells as predictors of humoral response to COVID 19 mRNA vaccination in immunocompromised patients Immunocompromised patients are considered high-risk and prioritized for vaccination against COVID-19. We aimed to analyze B-cell subsets in these patients to identify potential predictors of humoral vaccination response. Patients (n=120) suffering from hematologic malignancies or other causes of immunodeficiency and healthy controls (n=79) received a full vaccination series with an mRNA vaccine. B-cell subsets were analyzed prior to vaccination. Two independent anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays targeting the receptor-binding domain (RBD) or trimeric S protein (TSP) were performed three to four weeks after the second vaccination. Seroconversion occurred in 100% of healthy controls, in contrast to 67% (RBD) and 82% (TSP) of immunocompromised patients, while only 32% (RBD) and 22% (TSP) achieved antibody levels comparable to those of healthy controls. The number of circulating CD19+IgD+CD27- naive B cells was strongly associated with antibody levels ({rho}=0.761, P<0.001) and the only independent predictor for achieving antibody levels comparable to healthy controls (OR 1.07 per 10-{micro}l increase, 95%CI 1.02-1.12, P=0.009). Receiver operating characteristic analysis identified a cut-off at [&ge;]61 naive B cells per {micro}l to discriminate between patients with and without an optimal antibody response. Consequently, measuring naive B cells in immunocompromised hematologic patients could be useful in predicting their humoral vaccination response. Evaluating a first fully automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini Interview (MMI) methodology: results from a feasibility study ObjectivesGlobal, Covid-driven restrictions around face-to-face interviews for healthcare student selection have forced admissions staff to rapidly adopt adapted online systems before supporting evidence is available. We have developed, what we believe is, the first fully automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini-Interview (MMI) methodology. This study aimed to explore test re-test reliability, acceptability and usability of the system.

Design, setting and participantsmixed-methods feasibility study in Physician Associate (PA) programmes from two UK and one US university during 2019 - 2020.

Primary, secondary outcomesFeasibility measures (test retest reliability acceptability and usability) were assessed using intra-class correlation (ICC), descriptive statistics, thematic and content analysis.

MethodsVolunteers took (T1), then repeated (T2), the automated MMI, with a seven-day interval (+/- 2) then completed an evaluation questionnaire. Admissions staff participated in focus group discussions.

ResultsSixty-two students and seven admission staff participated; 34 students and four staff from UK and 28 students and three staff from US universities.

Good-excellent test-retest reliability was observed with T1 and T2 ICC between 0.62-0.81 (p<0.001) when assessed by individual total scores (range 80.6-119), station total scores 0.6-0.91, p<0.005, individual site (all ICC[&ge;] 0.76 p<0.001) and mean test retest across sites 0.82 p<0.001 (95% CI 0.7-0.9).

Admissions staff reported potential to reduce resource costs and bias through a more objective screening tool for pre-selection or to replace some MMI stations in a  hybrid model. Maintaining human interaction through  touch points was considered essential.

Users positively evaluated the system, stating it was intuitive with an accessible interface. Concepts chosen for dynamic probing needed to be appropriately tailored.

ConclusionThese preliminary findings suggest that the system is reliable, generating consistent scores for candidates and is acceptable to end-users provided human touchpoints are maintained. Thus, there is evidence for the potential of such an automated system to augment healthcare student selection processes. Trust in the scientific research community predicts intent to comply with COVID-19 prevention measures: An analysis of a large-scale international survey dataset In the present study, I explored the relationship between peoples trust in different agents related to prevention of spread of COVID-19 and their compliance with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical preventive measures. The COVIDiSTRESSII Global Survey dataset, which was collected from international samples, was analysed to examine the aforementioned relationship across different countries. For data-driven exploration, network analysis and Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM) analysis were performed. The result from network analysis demonstrated that trust in the scientific research community was most central in the network of trust and compliance. In addition, the outcome from Bayesian GLM analysis indicated that the same factor, trust in the scientific research community, was most fundamental in predicting participants intent to comply with both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical preventive measures. I briefly discussed the implications of the findings, the importance of trust in the scientific research community in explaining peoples compliance with measure to prevent spread of COVID-19. I wanna live and not think about the future; What place for advance care planning for people living with severe multiple sclerosis and their families? A qualitative study BackgroundLittle is known about how people with multiple sclerosis and their families comprehend advance care planning (ACP) and its relevance in their lives.

AimTo explore under what situations, with whom, how, and why do people with MS and their families engage in ACP

MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with people living with MS and their families followed by an ethical discussion group with five health professionals representing specialties working with people affected by MS and their families. Twenty-seven people with MS and 17 family members were interviewed between June 2019 and March 2020. Interviews and the ethical discussion group were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using the framework approach.

ResultsParticipants narratives focused on three major themes :(i) planning for an uncertain future; (ii) perceived obstacles to engaging in ACP that included uncertainty concerning MS disease progression, negative previous experiences of ACP discussions and prioritising symptom management over future planning; (iii) Preferences for engagement in ACP included a trusting relationship with a health professional and that information then be shared across services. Health professionals accounts from the ethical discussion group departed from viewing ACP as a formal document to that of an ongoing process of seeking preferences and values. They voiced similar concerns to people with MS about uncertainty and when to initiate discussions. Some shared concerns of a lack of confidence when having ACP discussions.

ConclusionThese findings support the need for a whole systems strategic approach where information about the potential benefits of ACP in all its forms can be shared with people with MS. Moreover, they highlight the need for health professionals to be skilled and trained in engaging in ACP discussions and where information is contemporaneously and seamlessly shared across services. What delirium detection tools are used in routine clinical practice in the United Kingdom? Survey results from 91% of acute healthcare organisations. PurposeOur aim was to collect information on delirium assessment processes and pathways in non-intensive care settings in the United Kingdom (UK).

MethodsWe sent a Freedom of Information request to 169 UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals, trusts and health boards (units) in July 2020 to obtain data on usage of delirium assessment tools in clinical practice and delirium pathways or guidelines.

ResultsWe received responses from 154/169 units (91% response rate). Of these, 146/154 (95%) units reported use of formal delirium assessment processes and 131/154 (85%) units had guidelines or pathways in place. The 4  As Test (4AT) was the most widely used tool, with 117/146 (80%) units reporting use. The Confusion Assessment Method was used in 65/146 (45%) units, and the Single Question to identify Delirium (SQiD) in 52/146 (36%) units.

ConclusionsOur findings show that the 4AT is the most commonly used tool in the UK, with 80% of units reporting use. This study adds to our knowledge of real-world uptake of delirium detection methods at scale. Future studies should evaluate real-world implementation of delirium assessment tools further via (i) tool completion rates and (ii) rates of positive scores against the expected prevalence delirium in the clinical population concerned.

KEY SUMMARY POINTSO_ST_ABSAimC_ST_ABSTo seek information on delirium assessment processes and pathways in non-intensive clinical care settings in the United Kingdom (UK), and to assess usage of specific delirium assessment tools: the 4  As Test (4AT), Confusion Assessment Method and Single Question to identify Delirium (SQiD).

FindingsIn total, 95% of National Health Service (NHS) units (hospitals, trusts and health boards) reported use of formal delirium assessment processes and 85% of units had guidelines or pathways in place. The 4AT was the most widely used tool, with 80% of units reporting use; the Confusion Assessment Method was reportedly used in 45% of units and the SQiD in 36% of units.

MessageThis study shows real-world, large-scale uptake of delirium detection methods and delirium guidelines in UK hospitals, which contributes to ongoing efforts to improve delirium care. Thromboembolism risk among patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and COVID-19 AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSPurposeC_ST_ABSIndividuals with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia carry an increased risk for adverse clinical outcome in case of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether this risk is, at least in part, modulated by an increase of thromboembolic complications.

MethodsWe prospectively followed 180 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to the Internal Medicine Units of San Raffaele Hospital. Data from 11 out of 180 patients were considered incomplete and excluded from the analysis. We analysed inflammation, tissue damage biomarkers, hemostatic parameters, thrombotic events (TEs) and clinical outcome according to the presence of diabetes/stress hyperglycemia.

ResultsAmong 169 patients, 51 (30.2%) had diabetes/stress hyperglycemia. Diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were associated with increased inflammation and tissue damage circulating markers, higher D-dimer levels, increased prothrombin time and lower antithrombin III activity. Forty-eight venous and 10 arterial TEs were identified in 49 (29%) patients. Diabetes/stress hyperglycemia (HR 2.71, p=0.001), fasting blood glucose (HR 4.32, p<0.001) and glucose variability (HR 1.6, p < 0.009) were all associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic complication. TEs significantly increased the risk for an adverse clinical outcome only in the presence of diabetes/stress hyperglycemia (HR 3.05, p=0.01) or fasting blood glucose [&ge;] 7 mmol/l (HR 3.07, p=0.015).

ConclusionsThromboembolism risk is higher among patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and COVID-19 pneumonia and is associated to poor clinical outcome. In case of SARS-Cov-2 infection patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia could be considered for a more intensive prophylactic anticoagulation regimen. Decision curve analysis to identify optimal candidates of liver resection for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma with hepatitis B cirrhosis：A cohort study BackgroundThe selection criterion for liver resection (LR) in intermediate-stage (IM) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. This study aims to compare LR and transarterial chemoembolization in the range of predicted death risk

MethodsThe multivariable Cox regression model (MVR) was estimated to predict mortality at 5yr. The cut-off values were determined by a two-piece-wise linear regression model, decision curve analysis with MVR model, and hazard ratio curve for treatment plotted against the predicted mortality.

Results825 IM-HCC with hepatitis B cirrhosis were included for analysis (TACE, n=622; LR, n=203). The 5-yr overall survival rate of LR patients was higher than the TACE group (52.8% vs. 20.8%; P<0.0001). The line of LR and TACE were crossing with predicted death risk at 100% (P for interaction =0.008). The benefit of LR versus TACE decreased progressively as predicted death risk>0.55 (95%CI: 0.45,0.62). When predicted death risk over 0.7, decision curve analysis suggested that LR and TACE did not increase net benefit. Patients were then divided into four subgroups by the cut-off values (<0.45, 0.45[&ge;] /<0.62, 0.62[&ge;] /<0.7, [&ge;] 0.7). The stratified analysis of treatment in different subgroups, hazard ratios were 0.39 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.56), 0.36 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.56), 0.51 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.98), and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.80), respectively.

ConclusionsLR reached the maximal relative utility in the interval of 0.45 to 0.62, and both LR and TACE did not increase net benefit at the 5-yr death risk over 0.7. The Ophthalmic Surgical Backlog caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic: A population-based and microsimulation modelling study BackgroundJurisdictions worldwide ramped down ophthalmic surgeries to mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to predict the long-term impact of COVID-19 on ophthalmology surgical care delivery.

MethodsThis is a population-based and a microsimulation modelling study. Provincial administrative data from January 2019 to May 2021 was used to estimate the backlog size and wait-times following the COVID-19 pandemic. For the post-pandemic recovery phase, we estimated the resources required to clear the backlog of patients accumulated on the waitlist during the pandemic.

ResultsA total of 56,923 patients were on the waitlist in the province of Ontario awaiting non-emergency ophthalmic surgery as of March 15, 2020. The number of non-emergency surgeries performed in the province decreased by 45-98% from March to May 2020, and 48-80% from April to May 2021 compared to the same months in 2019. By 2 years and 3 years, the overall estimated number of patients awaiting surgery grew by 129% and 150%, respectively. The estimated mean wait-time for patients for all subspecialty surgeries increased to 282 (SD 91) in March 2023 compared to 94 days (SD 97) in 2019. The provincial monthly additional resources required to clear the backlog by March 2023 was estimated to be a 34% escalation from the pre-pandemic volumes (4,626 additional surgeries).

InterpretationThe magnitude of the ophthalmic surgical backlog from COVID-19 has important implications for the recovery phase. The estimates from this microsimulation modelling can be adapted to other jurisdictions to assist with recovery planning for vision saving surgeries. Deceased donor kidney degradomics indicates cytoskeletal proteolytic alterations impacting post-transplant function. BackgroundIn brain death, cerebral injury contributes to systemic biological dysregulation, causing significant cellular stress in donor kidneys that adversely impacts the quality of grafts. Here, we hypothesized that DBD kidneys may undergo proteolytic processes that renders grafts susceptible to post-transplant dysfunction.

Material & MethodsUsing mass spectrometry and immunoblotting analyses, we profiled degradation patterns of cytoskeletal proteins in deceased (n=55) and living (n=10) donor kidneys.

ResultsWe found that in DBD kidneys, key podocyte cytoskeletal proteins had been proteolytically cleaved. Generated degradation profiles were not associated to donor related demographic and clinical factors but were associated to suboptimal post-transplant function. Strikingly, -actinin -4 and Talin-1 degradation profiles were not observed in circulatory-death or living-donor kidneys. As Talin-1 is a specific proteolytic target of Calpain-1, we investigated a potential trigger of Calpain activation and Talin-1 degradation using ex-vivo precision-cut human kidney slices and in-vitro immortalised human podocytes. Notably, we found that Transforming-Growth Factor-{beta} (TGF-{beta}) activated Calpain-1 and proteolytically cleaved Talin-1 to generate distinct peptide fragments. These peptide fragments were of similar size and matched the degradation patterns observed in DBD kidneys. Talin-1 degradation was prevented in vitro by Calpain-1 inhibition.

ConclusionsHere, we provide initial evidence that DBD kidneys are susceptible to cytoskeletal protein degradation that impacts posttransplant kidney function. Subsequent studies should aim to further investigate the link between brain death and activation of proteolytic pathways exploring new therapeutic opportunities. How Informative Were Early SARS-CoV-2 Treatment and Prevention Trials? A longitudinal cohort analysis of trials registered on clinicaltrials.gov BackgroundEarly in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, commentators warned that some COVID trials were inadequately conceived, designed and reported. Here, we retrospectively assess the prevalence of informative COVID trials launched in the first 6 months of the pandemic.

MethodsWe created a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 treatment and prevention efficacy trials that were initiated from 2020-01-01 to 2020-06-30 using ClinicalTrials.gov registration records. We evaluated trials on 3 criteria of informativeness: potential redundancy, design quality and feasibility of patient-participant recruitment. The study protocol was prospectively registered with the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/fp726/).

ResultsWe included 500 trials in our cohort, 58% of which were Phase 2 and 84.8% were directed towards the treatment of SARS-CoV-2. Close to one third of trials met all three criteria and were deemed informative (29.0% (95% Confidence Interval 23.7 - 36.9)). The proportion of potentially redundant trials in our cohort was 4.1%. Over half of the trials in our cohort (56.2%) did not meet our criteria for high quality trial design. The proportion of trials with infeasible patient-participant recruitment was 22.6%.

ConclusionsLess than one third of COVID-19 trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov during the first six months met all three criteria for informativeness. Shortcomings in trial design, recruitment feasibility and redundancy reflect longstanding weaknesses in the clinical research enterprise that were likely amplified by the exceptional circumstances of a pandemic. Application of nasal spray containing dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and ethanol during the COVID-19 pandemic may protect healthcare workers: A randomized controlled trials BackgroundCoronavirus pandemic has affected a large population worldwide. Currently, the standard care for individuals who are exposed is supportive care, symptomatic management, and isolation. The aim of our study was to evaluate effects of combined use of ethanol and DMSO as a nasal spray in preventing COVID-19.

MethodsWe conducted a randomized controlled trial on volunteer healthcare workers of medical centers that were at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19 in Shahroud, Iran. Two hundred and thirty-two participants were randomly assigned to intervention and control groups to receive DMSO/ethanol or routine care, respectively. The subjects were followed for 4 weeks to determine the incidence of COVID-19 infection in each group based on the RT-qPCR test. Finally, absolute risk difference and relative risk were calculated to evaluate the effect of DMSO in prevent COVID-19.

ResultsThe results showed that the incidence of COVID-19 in the control group and intervention group were 0.07 and 0.008, respectively. The relative risk (RR) was 0.12 (0.9-0.02) according to the incidence rate in the two groups.

Conclusioncombined application of DMSO and ethanol in healthcare providers can considerably prevent COVID-19. Croup during the COVID-19 Omicron Variant Surge Croup is a common upper respiratory disease usually associated with parainfluenza virus, resulting in stridor, hoarse voice, barky cough, and variable respiratory distress. Here we examine the data at our center confirming a sharp increase in cases of croup associated with the Omicron variant. Data was retrospectively extracted from patient charts among those seen in the Emergency Department at Seattle Childrens Hospital. Inclusion criteria were patients who were assigned a diagnosis containing "croup" during either 5/30/2021-11/30/2021, a time period correlating with predominance of the COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617.2), or the initial phase of the Omicron variant surge (12/1/2021-1/15/2022). Contemporaneous publicly available local data on the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 samples in surrounding King County, Washington, with spike gene target failure on TaqPath PCR assays was used as a proxy for the proportion of infections caused by the Omicron variant. A total of 401 patients were diagnosed with croup during the Delta surge and 107 patients were diagnosed with croup during the Omicron surge. Patients who presented during the Omicron surge were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 (48.2% vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001). Children with a clinical diagnosis of croup during the Omicron surge were more likely to be prescribed racemic epinephrine as part of their care (21.5% vs 13.0%, p = 0.032). There were no differences in presenting age, rate of admission, rate of return to the ED within 72 hours, or admission among those who returned within 72 hours. During the Omicron surge, the incidence of croup nearly doubled compared to the rate in prior months, while at the same time the number of cases of parainfluenza virus identified decreased. Consistent with prior case reports, we have identified a sharp rise in cases of croup seen in our pediatric ED in parallel with the replacement of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant by Omicron as the dominant variant in our community. USING PHYLOGENETICS TO INFER HIV-1 TRANSMISSION DIRECTION BETWEEN KNOWN TRANSMISSION PAIRS Inferring the transmission direction between linked individuals living with HIV provides unparalleled power to understand the epidemiology that determines transmission. Phylogenetic ancestral state reconstruction approaches infer the transmission direction by identifying the individual in whom the most recent common ancestor of the virus populations originated. However, these methods vary in their accuracy but it is unclear why. To evaluate the performance of phylogenetic ancestral state reconstruction, we inferred the transmission direction for 112 HIV transmission pairs where transmission direction was known and detailed additional information was available. We then fit a statistical model to evaluate the extent to which epidemiological, sampling, genetic and phylogenetic factors influenced the outcome of the inference. We repeated the analysis under real-life conditions with only routinely-collected data. We found that the inference of transmission direction depends principally on the topology class and branch length characteristics of the phylogeny. Under real-life conditions, the probability of identifying the correct transmission direction increases from 52%--when a monophyletic-monophyletic or paraphyletic-polyphyletic tree topology is observed, when the sample size in both partners is small and when the tip closest to the root does not agree with the state at the root--to 93% when a paraphyletic-monophyletic topology is observed, when the sample size is large and when the tip closest to the root agrees with root state. Our results suggest that discordance between previous studies in inferring the transmission direction can be explained by differences in key phylogenetic properties that arise due to different evolutionary, epidemiological and sampling processes.

Significance StatementIdentifying the direction of infectious disease transmission between individuals provides unparalleled power to understand infectious disease epidemiology. With epidemiological and clinical information typically unable to distinguish the direction, phylogenetic analysis of pathogen sequence data is an alternative approach. However, when these phylogenetic methods have been implemented, their accuracy is highly variable, and the reasons for this discordance is unknown. Here we analyse sequence data from over 100 pairs of individuals for whom both the direction of transmission of HIV is known and detailed epidemiological and sampling information is available. We find that easily quantifiable phylogenetic characteristics discriminate whether a phylogenetically-inferred transmission direction is correct. Our analysis highlights that phylogenetic approaches are unsuitable for individual-level analysis such as forensic investigations. Hemodynamic Differences Between Women and Men with Elevated Blood Pressure in China: A Non-Invasive Assessment of 45,082 Adults Using Impedance Cardiography BackgroundWhether there are sex differences in hemodynamic profiles among people with elevated blood pressure is not well understood and could guide personalization of treatment.

Methods and resultsWe described the clinical and hemodynamic characteristics of adults with elevated blood pressure in China using impedance cardiography. We included 45,082 individuals with elevated blood pressure (defined as systolic blood pressure of [&ge;]130 mmHg or a diastolic blood pressure of [&ge;]80 mmHg), of which 35.2% were women. Overall, women had a higher mean systolic blood pressure than men (139.0 [{+/-}15.7] mmHg vs 136.8 [{+/-}13.8] mmHg, P<0.001), but a lower mean diastolic blood pressure (82.6 [{+/-}9.0] mmHg vs 85.6 [{+/-}8.9] mmHg, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, region, and body mass index, women <50 years old had lower systemic vascular resistance index (beta-coefficient [{beta}] -31.7; 95% CI: -51.2, -12.2) and higher cardiac index ({beta} 0.07; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.09) than men of their same age group, whereas among those [&ge;]50 years old women had higher systemic vascular resistance index ({beta} 120.4; 95% CI: 102.4, 138.5) but lower cardiac index ({beta} -0.15; 95% CI: -0.16, -0.13). Results were consistent with a propensity score matching sensitivity analysis, although the magnitude of the SVRI difference was lower and non-significant. However, there was substantial overlap between women and men in the distribution plots of these variables, with overlapping areas ranging from 78% to 88%.

ConclusionsOur findings indicate that there are sex differences in hypertension phenotype, but that sex alone is insufficient to infer an individuals profile. The role of classroom volume, occupancy, voice reduction and ffp2 masks in transmission risk of SARS-CoV2 in schools Issues linked to aerosol physics within school buildings and related infection risk still lack a proper recognition in school safety regulations. In this theoretical work we try to shed more light on the critical role of air ventilation, classroom volume, occupancy, and face mask types (surgical vs ffp2) in controlling airborne transmission risk in educational settings. Limited spaces available in many schools require to precisely assess the occupancy/volume ratio in each classroom and to investigate the specific risk levels from aerosolization of viral loads from infective sources. Moreover, most schools are not provided with mechanical HVAC systems. Fundamental questions are therefore: how the specific classroom volume affects the long-range contagion risk in a given classroom? is linear social distancing the right way to assess a volumetric risk problem? How effective are other countermeasures like reduced speaking volume or equipping teachers with microphones? We present here the results of a numerical analysis based on the Gammaitoni-Nucci infection risk model and the consolidated Wells-Riley like approach, with SARS-CoV2 input data and geometric data from a typical high-school classroom in Italy. We investigated separately the case of infective asymptomatic student and infective asymptomatic teacher as source of viral quanta, taking into account thermal gradient effects on the air ventilation rates. First recommendations based on the volumetric nature of aerosol risk are suggested to extend the linear social distancing approach applied so far. Finally we discuss the concept of "cumulative infection risk" over multiple lesson+break cycles in Wells-Riley-like infection models. We believe that any attempt to proper model infection risk in closed environments with cycled changes of the source and the susceptible individuals, should carefully consider this point, particularly when modelling air ventilation breaks in classrooms. Clinical impact of the rapid molecular detection of RSV and influenza A and B viruses in the emergency department IntroductionUsing respiratory viruses rapid diagnostic tests in the emergency room (ER) could allow a better and faster clinical management. Point-of-care PCR instruments provide now results in less than 30 minutes. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the use of the cobas(R) Influenza A/B & RSV Assay for use on Roches cobas(R) Liat(R) instrument on the clinical management of ER patients.

MethodsPatients (adults and children) requiring admission or suffering from an underlying condition at risk of respiratory complication were prospectively recruited in the ER of four hospitals in the Brussels region. Physicians intentions regarding admission, isolation, antibiotic and antiviral use were collected before and after performing a cobas(R) Influenza A/B & RSV molecular test. Additionally, a comparison of the analytical performance of this test against antigen rapid tests and viral culture was performed as well as a time-to-result evaluation.

ResultsPCR yielded twice more positive results than antigen rapid diagnostic tests. It allowed a decrease in the overall need for isolation and treatment by limiting the isolation of negative patients and the antibiotic use for positive patients. Meanwhile, antiviral treatments better targeted patients with a positive influenza PCR.

ConclusionThe use of a rapid influenza and RSV molecular test improves the clinical management of patients admitted to the ER by providing a fast and reliable result. Their additional cost compared to antigen tests should be balanced with the benefit of their analytical performance, leading to efficient reductions in the need of isolation and antibiotic use.