What does “Yield Curve” mean?
"Great question!  A Yield Curve is a plot of the yields for different maturities of debt. This can be for any debt, but the most common used when discussing yield curves is the debt of the Federal Government. The yield curve is observed by its slope.  A curve with a positive slope (up and to the right) or a steepening curve, i.e. one that's becoming more positively sloped or less negatively sloped, may indicate several different situations. The Kansas City Federal Reserve has a nice paper that summarizes various economic theories about the yield curve, and even though it's a bit dated, the theories are still valid. I'll summarize the major points here. A positively sloped yield curve can indicate expectations of inflation in the future. The longer a security has before it matures, the more opportunities it has to be affected by changes in inflation, so if investors expect inflation to occur in the future, they may demand higher yields on longer-term securities to compensate them for the additional inflationary risk. A steepening yield curve may indicate that investors are increasing their expectations of future inflation. A positively sloped yield curve may also reflect expectations of deprecation in the dollar. The publication linked before states that depreciation of the dollar may have increased the perceived risk of future exchange rate changes and discouraged purchases of long-term Treasury securities by Japanese and other foreign investors, forcing the yields on these securities higher. Supply shocks, e.g. decreases in oil prices that lead to decreased production, may cause the yield curve to steepen because they affect short-term inflation expectations significantly more than long-term inflation. For example, a decrease in oil prices may decrease short-term inflation expectations, so short-term nominal interest rates decline. Investors usually assume that long-term inflation is governed more by fundamental macroeconomic factors than short-term factors like commodity price swings, so this price shock may lead short-term yields to decrease but leave long-term relatively unaffected, thus steepening the yield curve. Even if inflation expectations remain unchanged, the yield curve can still change. The supply of and demand for money affects the ""required real rate,"" i.e. the price of credit, loans, etc. The supply comes from private savings, money coming from abroad, and growth in the money supply, while demand comes from private investors and the government. The paper summarizes the effects on real rates by saying Lower private saving, declines in the real money supply, and reduced capital inflows decrease the supply of funds and raise the required real rate. A larger government deficit and stronger private investment raise the required real rate by increasing the demand for funds. The upward pressure on future real interest rates contributes to the yield curve's positive slope, and a steepening yield curve could indicate an increasing government deficit, declines in private savings, or reduced capital coming in from abroad (for example, because of a recession in Europe that reduces their demand for US imports). an easing of monetary policy when is economy is already producing near its capacity ... would initially expand the real money supply, lowering required short-term real interest rates. With long-term real interest rates unchanged, the yield curve would steepen. Lower interest rates in turn would stimulate domestic spending, putting upward pressure on prices. This upward price pressure would probably increase expected inflation, and as the first bullet point describes, this can cause long-term nominal interest rates to rise. The combination of the decline in short-term rates and the rise in long-term rates steepens the yield curve.  Similarly, an inverted yield curve or a positively sloped yield curve that is becoming less steep may indicate the reverse of some or all of the above situations. For example, a rise in oil prices may increase expectations of short-term inflation, so investors demand higher interest rates on short-term debt. Because long-term inflation expectations are governed more by fundamental macroeconomic factors than short-term swings in commodity prices, long-term expectations may not rise nearly as much as short term expectations, which leads to a yield curve that is becoming less steep or even negatively sloped. Forecasting based on the curve slope is not an exact science, just one of many indicators used.  Note - Yield Curve was not yet defined here and was key to my answer for What is the ""Bernanke Twist"" and ""Operation Twist""? What exactly does it do? So I took the liberty of ask/answer." Yield is the term used to describe how much income the bond will generate if the bond was purchased at a particular moment in time. If I pay $100 for a one year, $100 par value bond that pays 5% interest then the bond yields 5% since I will receive $5 from a $100 investment if I held the bond to maturity. If I pay $90 for the same one year bond then the bond yields 17% since I will receive $15 from a $90 investment if I held the bond to maturity. There are many factors that affect what yield creditors will accept: It is the last bullet that ultimately determines yield.  The other factors feed into the creditor’s desire to hold money today versus receiving money in the future.  I desire money in my hand more than a promise to receive money in the future.  In order to entice me to lend my money someone must offer me an incentive.  Thus, they must offer me more money in the future in order for me to part with money I have. A yield curve is a snapshot of the yields for different loan durations.  The x-axis is the amount of time left on the bond while the y-axis is the yield.  The most cited yield curve is the US treasury curve which displays the yields for loans to the US government.  The yield curve changes while bonds are being traded thus it is always a snapshot of a particular moment in time. Short term loans typically have less yield than longer term loans since there is less uncertainty about the near future. Yield curves will flatten or slightly invert when creditors desire to keep their money instead of loaning it out.  This can occur because of a sudden disruption in the market that causes uncertainty about the future which leads to an increase in the demand for cash on hand. The US government yield curve should be looked at with some reservation however since there is a very large creditor to the US government that has the ability to loan the government an unlimited amount of funds.
The SEC 30-Day Yield you're seeing is a standardized yield calculation set out by the Securities & Exchange Commission.  It can be useful for comparing bond funds, but it doesn't guarantee what you'll actually earn from a fund. IMPORTANT: The SEC 30-day yield represents a bond fund's returns from the previous 30 days expressed as an annual percentage of the current fund price — yes, an annual percentage. In other words, don't expect 1.81% return on your money every 30 days!  Such a return is too-good-to-be-true return in today's low rate environment.  1.81% per year?  More reasonable. Even then, the 1.81% you see is merely an estimate, one based on assumptions, of what you might expect to earn if you keep your money in place for the next year.  The estimate is based on the assumptions that: These aren't reliable assumptions.  BIV's price does fluctuate.  You are not promised to get your principal back with a bond fund.  Only an individual bond promises your principal back, and only at maturity. So, earning $181 on $10,000 invested for a full year while taking on interest-rate and other risks might not be worth the trouble of putting your money in a brokerage account. You'll need to transfer the money in and out, and there are potential trading fees to take into account.  (How much to buy/sell units?) An FDIC-insured high interest savings account makes more sense. "The most fundamental observation of bond pricing is this: Bond price is inversely proportional to bond yields  When bond yields rise, the price of the bond falls.  When bond yields fall, the price of the bond rises.  Higher rates are ""bad"" for bonds. If a selloff occurs in the Russian government bond space (i.e. prices are going down), the yield on that bond is going to increase as a consequence." "When ""people say"", each person is referring to whatever he/she is looking at.  Interest rates tend to move roughly the same, but often there is a bias regarding long vs. short term.  In the US right now, short term interest rates are very low but there is a lot of chatter saying they will rise in the future.  The differential between long term rates and short term rates is high compared to historical norms, suggesting that the market believes this chatter.  You can also look at the differences in rates between different quality levels.  If the economy is improving, the difference in rate for lower rated debt vs. higher rated debt decreases as people think the chance of businesses failing is decreasing. Right now, any interest rate you look at is well below long term historical averages, so asserting that interest rates are low is quite safe." "https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/30/2-types-of-risk-2-types-of-bubbles.aspx (mirror): The Wall Street Journal reviews: What Mr. Bernstein calls ""shallow risk"" is a temporary drop in an asset's market price; decades ago, the great investment analyst Benjamin Graham referred to such an interim decline as ""quotational loss."" ""Deep risk,"" on the other hand, is an irretrievable real loss of capital, meaning that after inflation you won't recover for decades -- if ever. So quotational loss = loss not explained by change of actual value of a firm." "Like all financial investments, the value of a bond is the present value of expected future cash flows.  The Yield to Maturity is the annualized return you get on your initial investment, which is equivalent to the discount rate you'd use to discount future cash flows. So if you discount all future cashflows at 6% annually*, you can calculate the price of the bond: So the price of a $1,000 bond (which is how bond prices are typically quoted) would be $1,097.12. The current yield is just the current coupon payment divided by the current price, which is 70/1,097.12 or 6.38% Question 3 makes no sense, since the yield to maturity would be the same if you bought the bond at market price Question 4 talks about a ""sale"" date which makes me think that it assumes you sold the bond on the coupon date, but you'd have to know the sale price to calculate the rate of return." "You are asking multiple questions here, pieces of which may have been addressed in other questions.  A bond (I'm using US Government bonds in this example, and making the 'zero risk of default' assumption) will be priced based on today's interest rate. This is true whether it's a 10% bond with 10 years left (say rates were 10% on the 30 yr bond 20 years ago) a 2% bond with 10 years, or a new 3% 10 year bond.  The rate I use above is the 'coupon' rate, i.e. the amount the bond will pay each year in interest. What's the same for each bond is called the ""Yield to Maturity."" The price adjusts, by the market, so the return over the next ten years is the same.  A bond fund simply contains a mix of bonds, but in aggregate, has a yield as well as a duration, the time-and-interest-weighted maturity.  When rates rise, the bond fund will drop in value based on this factor (duration). Does this begin to answer your question?" "Is there more on where Dalio gets his definitions for the short-term debt cycle (5-8 years or so) and ""deleveraging"" and the long-term debt cycle (75-100 years)? (or his evidence that separates the two)?  At one point 18:10, he says the difference is that in a deleveraging, interest rates hit 0 and can no longer go lower, but I don't know if that works as a definition per se.  There are other things that central banks do when interest rates hit 0, like buy up assets (which he does mention and include in the ""print money"" category of things that can be done during a deleveraging).  And one of the deleveragings he cites, England in the 1950s, according to Wikipedia was due to difficulty in transitioning out from war production, and according to [this excel file](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Documents/rates/baserate.xls) from the Bank of England on historical rates, it doesn't say interest rates went to 0 at that time (unless Dalio is referring to another point in history when he cites 1950s England).    20:30 His definition of a depression is when debt restructuring or defaults happen.  Interesting.  What I learned was that there isn't really a hard and fast definition for recessions and depressions (e.g. a recession is two quarters of negative growth in a row and a depression is just a reeeaallly bad/long recession).  And I don't think I recall encountering in the past an attempt to define what a ""deleveraging"" event of an economy is.    24:30 Is debt reduction and redistribution of wealth deflationary?  I think it depends on how much the debt reduction or redistribution hurts the spending of the lender or wealthy versus how much it helps the spending of the borrower or the poor.  Both are actually similarly ""giving some from the haves to the have nots,"" and especially redistribution of wealth is similar to fiscal spending, which is mentioned 25:30 as a valid inflationary way to try to help the economy.  26:00 Are deflationary methods (say, austerity) needed to balance out the inflationary methods (central bank buying assets and fiscal spending)?  Aren't central bank (interest rates, quantitative easing) and the government (fiscal policy) still the main things that move inflation or deflation?  I would think that debt reduction and redistribution of wealth are good when needed, but I wouldn't think you would do those things *mainly* for their (supposed, see above for my doubts) deflationary effects.    Still, a very interesting video and one of the best presented videos on a difficult subject." Your question asked about a specific time the yield curve flattened or inverted.  There are other times when the yield curve inverted or flattened.  You also imply in your question that investors were flocking to long term bonds which lowered their yields.  I don't believe this is the case.  I believe investors were fleeing from short term bonds causing the yields on short term bonds to rise to meet those of long term bonds. The chart below shows the history of yields on US bonds over time.  The shaded areas are where the yield curve flattened or inverted.  Notice that after 1982 it is the short term yields that rise sharply to meet or cross the yields on longer term bonds.  The yields on longer term bonds move little compared to the movement in yields on the short term bonds.  Thus it is investors moving out of short term bonds that cause the yield curve to flatten or invert.  These investors are not moving into longer term bonds since the yields on the longer term bonds do not move much at all at these times.  In fact, in 2006 the longer term bond market was only 25% of the total US public debt while short term bonds made up 75%.  It would take less money to move the yields on longer term bonds than it would on short term bonds yet the longer term yields did not move near as much as short term yields.  So why are investors or banks moving out of short term bonds causing their yields to rise?  I believe this happens for one of two reasons:  they are moving into higher yielding investments or they need to raise cash to cover bad investments.  Charts and more information here. "Beyond the yield/price relationship, a good intuitive way to understand it is just this: these people control a substantial amount of money that could be essentially loaned to governments.   If they feel a particular policy is likely to lead to inflation or default, they may decide not to loan that country any more money.  All else being equal, with a smaller supply of possible borrowers, the country will have to pay higher interest to fund a particular amount of debt. Furthermore they may loudly publicly announce that they will no longer lend to that country, in which case other participants may be persuaded that they too should no longer lend at the going rate.  What's more, this is somewhat self-fulfilling: as rates go up, the country will spend more money servicing its debt, and will in fact become a worse risk.   So I think the thing that gives them their ""vigilante"" nature is that governments worry they will round up a posse and things will run away.  As far as actual incentives, I would welcome more information but I think the main bond vigilante case is that they are basically long on the country but want it to tighten up its policy so their existing holdings don't decline." "Those are the ""right"" yields. They are historically (but not ""nonsensically"") low. Those yields are reflective of the sluggish U.S. and global economic activity of the past decade. If global growth were higher, the yields would be higher. The period most nearly comparable to the past 10 years in U.S. and world history was the depressed 1930s. (I am the author of this 2004 book that predicted a stock market crash (which occurred in 2008), and the modern 1930s, but I was wrong in my assumption that the modern 1930s would involve another depression rather than 'slow growth.')" Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note, TNX, is a security directly related to this rate. Divide the CBOE price of TNX by 10 to get the yield.  One can also track the  10Y T-Note yield at yahoo finance using ticker symbol (^TNX).   One can also track the  10Y T-Note yield at yahoo finance using ticker symbol (^TNX). It refers to the risk free rate of a particular country. Because all other rates are usually pegged to the risk free rate. In US,it is the 30 day treasury rate. In England, it is the LIBOR In Canada, it is the overnight rate at which banks lend money to each other. All of these come under the category of risk free rate. No, it means what it says. Prices change, hence price of the derivative can go down even if the price of the underlying doesn't change (e.g. theta decay in options). Usually the market.  I'm a company issuing a 5-year bond with 5% coupon payments. It goes on the market to whoever is willing to pay the most for it. The prices that those investors pay implies what the required yield is. For instance, if they're willing to pay exactly face value for the bond, then that shows they have a required return of (in this case) 5%. Paying more or less for the bond implies a require rate less than or greater than 5%, with the exact amounts derivable with basic algebra.  The same principle can be applied to any other asset. "he is saying that ""QE"" meaning ""quantitative easing"" meaning ""the theory that the government flooded the markets with money, artificially driving up the price of stocks"" meant that hedge funds, which HEDGE, and benefit from an up-and-down market, couldn't win in a market where it just kept going up.  It's basically a conspiracy theory bears have been pushing for years ""QE artificially inflated the market, it's gonna crash!"""