How to evaluate stocks? e.g. Whether some stock is cheap or expensive?
"If you are looking for numerical metrics I think the following are popular: Price/Earnings (P/E) - You mentioned this very popular one in your question.  There are different P/E ratios - forward (essentially an estimate of future earnings by management), trailing, etc..  I think of the P/E as a quick way to grade a company's income statement (i.e: How much does the stock cost verusus the amount of earnings being generated on a per share basis?). Some caution must be taken when looking at the P/E ratio.  Earnings can be ""massaged"" by the company.  Revenue can be moved between quarters, assets can be depreciated at different rates, residual value of assets can be adjusted, etc..  Knowing this, the P/E ratio alone doesn't help me determine whether or not a stock is cheap. In general, I think an affordable stock is one whose P/E is under 15. Price/Book - I look at the Price/Book as a quick way to grade a company's balance sheet.  The book value of a company is the amount of cash that would be left if everything the company owned was sold and all debts paid (i.e. the company's net worth).  The cash is then divided amoung the outstanding shares and the Price/Book can be computed.  If a company had a price/book under 1.0 then theoretically you could purchase the stock, the company could be liquidated, and you would end up with more money then what you paid for the stock. This ratio attempts to answer: ""How much does the stock cost based on the net worth of the company?"" Again, this ratio can be ""massaged"" by the company.  Asset values have to be estimated based on current market values (think about trying to determine how much a company's building is worth) unless, of course, mark-to-market is suspended.  This involves some estimating.  Again, I don't use this value alone in determing whether or not a stock is cheap. I consider a price/book value under 10 a good number.   Cash - I look at growth in the cash balance of a company as a way to grade a company's cash flow statement.  Is the cash account growing or not? As they say, ""Cash is King"".  This is one measurement that can not be ""massaged"" which is why I like it.  The P/E and Price/Book can be ""tuned"" but in the end the company cannot hide a shrinking cash balance. Return Ratios - Return on Equity is a measure of the amount of earnings being generated for a given amount of equity (ROE = earnings/(assets - liabilities)).  This attempts to measure how effective the company is at generating earnings with a given amount of equity.  There is also Return on Assets which measures earnings returns based on the company's assets. I tend to think an ROE over 15% is a good number. These measurements rely on a company accurately reporting its financial condition.  Remember, in the US companies are allowed to falsify accounting reports if approved by the government so be careful.  There are others who simply don't follow the rules and report whatever numbers they like without penalty. There are many others.  These are just a few of the more popular ones.  There are many other considerations to take into account as other posters have pointed out." Its like anything else, you need to study and learn more about investing in general and the stocks you are looking at buying or selling. Magazines are a good start -- also check out the books recommended in another question. If you're looking at buying a stock for the mid/long term, look at things like this: Selling is more complicated and more frequently screwed up: "duffbeer's answers are reasonable for the specific question asked, but it seems to me the questioner is really wanting to know what stocks should I buy, by asking ""do you simply listen to 'experts' and hope they are right?"" Basic fundamental analysis techniques like picking stocks with a low PE or high dividend yield are probably unlikely to give returns much above the average market because many other people are applying the same well-known techniques." I look at the following ratios and how these ratios developed over time, for instance how did valuation come down in a recession, what was the trough multiple during the Lehman crisis in 2008, how did a recession or good economy affect profitability of the company. Valuation metrics: Enterprise value / EBIT (EBIT = operating income) Enterprise value / sales (for fast growing companies as their operating profit is expected to be realized later in time) and P/E Profitability: Operating margin, which is EBIT / sales Cashflow / sales Business model stability and news flow
Knowing the answer to this question is generally not as useful as it may seem.  The stock's current price is the consensus of thousands of people who are looking at the many relevant factors (dividend rate, growth prospects, volatility, risk, industry, etc.) that determine its value.  A stock's price is the market's valuation of the cash flows it entitles you to in the future.  Researching a stock's value means trying to figure out if there is something relevant to these cash flows that the market doesn't know about or has misjudged.  Pretty much anything we can list for you here that will affect a stock's price is something the market knows about, so it's not likely to help you know if something is mispriced.  Therefore it's not useful to you. If you are not a true expert on how important the relevant factors are and how the market is reacting to them currently (and often even if you are), then you are essentially guessing.  How likely are you to catch something that the thousands of other investors have missed and how likely are you to miss something that other investors have understood?  I don't view gambling as inherently evil, but you should be clear and honest with yourself about what you are doing if you are trying to outperform the market. As people become knowledgeable about and experienced with finance, they try less and less to be the one to find an undervalued stock in their personal portfolio.  Instead they seek to hold a fully diversified portfolio with low transactions costs and build wealth in the long term without wasting time and money on the guessing game.  My suggestion for you is to transition as quickly as you can to behave like someone who knows a lot about finance. "Here is how I would approach that problem: 1) Find the average ratios of the competitors: 2) Find the earnings and book value per share of Hawaiian 3) Multiply the EPB and BVPS by the average ratios. Note that you get two very different numbers.  This illustrates why pricing from ratios is inexact.  How you use those answers to estimate a ""price"" is up to you.  You can take the higher of the two, the average, the P/E result since you have more data points, or whatever other method you feel you can justify.   There is no ""right"" answer since no one can accurately predict the future price of any stock." There's only one real list that states what people think stock prices should be, and that's the stocks order book. That lists the prices at which stock owners are willing to buy stocks now, and the price that buyers are willing to pay.  A secondary measure is the corresponding options price. Anything else is just an opinion and not backed by money. The only recommendation I have is to try the stock screener from Google Finance : https://www.google.com/finance?ei=oJz9VenXD8OxmAHR263YBg#stockscreener I'd recommend looking at fundamental analysis as well -- technical analysis seems to be good for buy and sell points, but not for picking what to buy.  You can get better outperformance by buying the right stuff, and it can be surprisingly easy to create a formula that works.  I'd check out Morningstar, AAII, or Equities Lab (fairly complicated but it lets you do technical and fundamental analysis together).  Also read Benjamin Graham, and/or Ken Fisher (they are wildly different, which is why I recommend them both). You can check whether the company whose stock you want to buy is present on an european market. For instance this is the case for Apple at Frankfurt. Stock valuation is a really sticky business, although they are ways to value it, it is somewhat subjective(expectations are calculated). But it will be at premium most likely, can't tell how much without any numbers.(wouldn't be able to tell with the numbers as well since i do not have any knowledge in the sector) REIT's are a different beast than your normal corporate stock (such as $AAPL).  Here is a good article to get you started.  From there you can do some more research into what you think you will need to truly evaluate an REIT. How To Assess A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)  Excerpt: When evaluating REITs, you will get a clearer picture by looking at funds from operations (FFO) rather than looking at net income. If you are seriously considering the investment, try to calculate adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), which deducts the likely expenditures necessary to maintain the real estate portfolio. AFFO is also a good measure of the REIT's dividend-paying capacity. Finally, the ratio price-to-AFFO and the AFFO yield (AFFO/price) are tools for analyzing an REIT: look for a reasonable multiple combined with good prospects for growth in the underlying AFFO. Good luck! "First, to mention one thing - better analysis calls for analyzing a range of outcomes, not just one; assigning a probability on each, and comparing the expected values. Then moderating the choice based on risk tolerance. But now, just look at the outcome or scenario of 3% and time frame of 2 days. Let's assume your investable capital is exactly $1000 (multiply everything by 5 for $5,000, etc.). A. Buy stock: the value goes to 103; your investment goes to $1030; net return is $30, minus let's say $20 commission (you should compare these between brokers; I use one that charges 9.99 plus a trivial government fee). B. Buy an call option at 100 for $0.40 per share, with an expiration 30 days away (December 23). This is a more complicated. To evaluate this, you need to estimate the movement of the value of a 100 call, $0 in and out of the money, 30 days remaining, to the value of a 100 call, $3 in the money, 28 days remaining. That movement will vary based on the volatility of the underlying stock, an advanced topic; but there are techniques to estimate that, which become simple to use after you get the hang of it. At any rate, let's say that the expected movement of the option price in this scenario is from $0.40 to $3.20. Since you bought 2500 share options for $1000, the gain would be 2500 times 2.8 = 7000. C. Buy an call option at 102 for $0.125 per share, with an expiration 30 days away (December 23). To evaluate this, you need to estimate the movement of the value of a 102 call, $2 out of the money, 30 days remaining, to the value of a 102 call, $1 in the money, 28 days remaining. That movement will vary based on the volatility of the underlying stock, an advanced topic; but there are techniques to estimate that, which become simple to use after you get the hang of it. At any rate, let's say that the expected movement of the option price in this scenario is from $0.125 to $ 1.50. Since you bought 8000 share options for $1000, the gain would be 8000 times 1.375 = 11000. D. Same thing but starting with a 98 call. E. Same thing but starting with a 101 call expiring 60 days out. F., ... Etc. - other option choices. Again, getting the numbers right for the above is an advanced topic, one reason why brokerages warn you that options are risky (if you do your math wrong, you can lose. Even doing that math right, with a bad outcome, loses). Anyway you need to ""score"" as many options as needed to find the optimal point. But back to the first paragraph, you should then run the whole analysis on a 2% gain. Or 5%. Or 5% in 4 days instead of 2 days. Do as many as are fruitful. Assess likelihoods. Then pull the trigger and buy it. Try these techniques in simulation before diving in! Please! One last point, you don't HAVE to understand how to evaluate projected option price movements if you have software that  does that for you. I'll punt on that process, except to mention it. Get the general idea? Edit P.S. I forgot to mention that brokers need love for handling Options too. Check those commission rates in your analysis as well." "Answering this question is weird, because it is not really precise in what you mean. Do you want all stocks in the US? Do you want a selection of stocks according to parameters?  Do you just want a cool looking graph? However, your possible misuse of the word derivative piqued my interest. Your reference to  gold and silver seems to indicate that you do not know what a derivative actually is. Or what it would do in a portfolio.  The straightforward way to ""see"" an efficient frontier is to do the following. For a set of stocks (in this case six ""randomly"" selected ones):      library(quantmod)  library(fPortfolio)  library(PerformanceAnalytics)     getSymbols(c(""STZ"", ""RAI"", ""AMZN"", ""MSFT"", ""TWX"", ""RHT""), from = ""2012-06-01"", to = ""2017-06-01"")     returns &lt;- NULL  tickerlist &lt;- c(""STZ"", ""RAI"", ""AMZN"", ""MSFT"", ""TWX"", ""RHT"")  for (ticker in tickerlist){   returns &lt;- cbind(returns, monthlyReturn(Ad(eval(as.symbol(ticker)))))  }  colnames(returns) &lt;- tickerlist  returns &lt;- as.timeSeries(returns)    frontier &lt;- portfolioFrontier(returns)  png(""frontier.png"", width = 800, height = 600)  plot(frontier, which = ""all"")  dev.off()    minvariancePortfolio(returns, constraints = ""LongOnly"")    Portfolio Weights:    STZ    RAI   AMZN   MSFT    TWX    RHT   0.1140 0.3912 0.0000 0.1421 0.1476 0.2051     Covariance Risk Budgets:    STZ    RAI   AMZN   MSFT    TWX    RHT   0.1140 0.3912 0.0000 0.1421 0.1476 0.2051     Target Returns and Risks:   mean    Cov   CVaR    VaR   0.0232 0.0354 0.0455 0.0360    https://imgur.com/QIxDdEI  The minimum variance portfolio of these six assets has a mean return is 0.0232 and variance is 0.0360. AMZN does not get any weight in the portfolio.  It kind of means that the other assets span it and it does not provide any additional diversification benefit.   Let us add two ETFs that track gold and silver to the mix, and see how little difference it makes:    getSymbols(c(""GLD"", ""SLV""), from = ""2012-06-01"", to = ""2017-06-01"")    returns &lt;- NULL  tickerlist &lt;- c(""STZ"", ""RAI"", ""AMZN"", ""MSFT"", ""TWX"", ""RHT"", ""GLD"", ""SLV"")  for (ticker in tickerlist){   returns &lt;- cbind(returns, monthlyReturn(Ad(eval(as.symbol(ticker)))))  }  colnames(returns) &lt;- tickerlist  returns &lt;- as.timeSeries(returns)   frontier &lt;- portfolioFrontier(returns)    png(""weights.png"", width = 800, height = 600)  weightsPlot(frontier)  dev.off()    # Optimal weights  out &lt;- minvariancePortfolio(returns, constraints = ""LongOnly"")  wghts &lt;- getWeights(out)  portret1 &lt;- returns%*%wghts  portret1 &lt;- cbind(monthprc, portret1)[,3]  colnames(portret1) &lt;- ""Optimal portfolio""    # Equal weights  wghts &lt;- rep(1/8, 8)  portret2 &lt;- returns%*%wghts  portret2 &lt;- cbind(monthprc, portret2)[,3]  colnames(portret2) &lt;- ""Equal weights portfolio""   png(""performance_both.png"", width = 800, height = 600)  par(mfrow=c(2,2))  chart.CumReturns(portret1, ylim = c(0, 2))  chart.CumReturns(portret2, ylim = c(0, 2))  chart.Drawdown(portret1, main = ""Drawdown"", ylim = c(-0.06, 0))  chart.Drawdown(portret2, main = ""Drawdown"", ylim = c(-0.06, 0))  dev.off()   https://imgur.com/sBHGz7s   Adding gold changes the minimum variance mean return to 0.0116 and the variance stays about the same 0.0332. You can see how the weights change at different return and variance profiles in the picture.  The takeaway is that adding gold decreases the return but does not do a lot for the risk of the portfolio.  You also notice that silver does not get included in the minimum variance efficient portfolio (and neither does AMZN).  https://imgur.com/rXPbXau  We can also compare the optimal weights to an equally weighted portfolio and see that the latter would have performed better but had much  larger drawdowns. Which is because it has a higher volatility, which might be undesirable.  ---  Everything below here is false, but illustrative.  So what about the derivative part? Let us assume you bought an out of the money call option with a strike of 50 on MSFT at the beginning of the  time series and held it to the end.  We need to decide on the the annualized cost-of-carry rate, the annualized rate of interest, the time to maturity is measured in years, the annualized  volatility of the underlying security is proxied by the historical volatility.   library(fOptions)   monthprc &lt;- Ad(MSFT)[endpoints(MSFT, ""months"")]  T &lt;- length(monthprc) # 60 months, 5 years  vol &lt;- sd(returns$MSFT)*sqrt(12) # annualized volatility    optprc &lt;- matrix(NA, 60, 1)  for (t in 1:60) {   s &lt;- as.numeric(monthprc[t])   optval &lt;- GBSOption(TypeFlag = ""c"", S = s, X = 50, Time = (T - t) / 12, r = 0.001, b = 0.001, sigma = vol)   optprc[t] &lt;- optval@price  }    monthprc &lt;- cbind(monthprc, optprc)  colnames(monthprc) &lt;- c(""MSFT"", ""MSFTCall50"")    MSFTCall50rets &lt;- monthlyReturn(monthprc[,2])  colnames(MSFTCall50rets) &lt;- ""MSFTCall50rets""    returns &lt;- merge(returns, MSFTCall50rets)    wghts &lt;- rep(1/9, 9)    portret3 &lt;- returns%*%wghts  portret3 &lt;- cbind(monthprc, portret3)[,3]  colnames(portret3) &lt;- ""Equal weights derivative portfolio""    png(""performance_deriv.png"", width = 800, height = 600)  par(mfrow=c(2,2))  chart.CumReturns(portret2, ylim = c(0, 4.5))  chart.CumReturns(portret3, ylim = c(0, 4.5))  chart.Drawdown(portret2, main = ""Drawdown"", ylim = c(-0.09, 0))  chart.Drawdown(portret3, main = ""Drawdown"", ylim = c(-0.09, 0))  dev.off()  https://imgur.com/SZ1xrYx   Even though we have a massively profitable instrument in the derivative. The portfolio analysis does not include it  because of the high volatility. However, if we just use equal weighting and essentially take a massive position in  the out of the money call (which would not be possible in real life), we get huge drawdowns and volatility, but  the returns are almost two fold. But nobody will sell you a five year call.  Others can correct any mistakes or misunderstandings in the above. It hopefully gives a starting point.  Read more at:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_(finance)  The imgur album:  https://imgur.com/a/LoBEY" "Check your math... ""two stocks, both with a P/E of 2 trading at $40 per share lets say, and one has an EPS of 5 whereas the other has an EPS of 10 is the latter a better purchase?"" If a stock has P/E of 2 and  price of $40 it has an EPS of $20. Not $10. Not $5." Aswath Damodaran's [Investment Valuation 3rd edition](http://www.amazon.com/Investment-Valuation-Techniques-Determining-University/dp/1118130731/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1339995852&amp;sr=8-12&amp;keywords=aswath+damodaran) (or save money and go with a used copy of the [2nd edition](http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0471414905/ref=dp_olp_used?ie=UTF8&amp;condition=used))  He's a professor at Stern School of Business. His [website](http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/) and [blog](http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/) are good resources as well. [Here is his support page](http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/Inv3ed.htm) for his Investment Valuation text. It includes chapter summaries, slides, ect. If you're interested in buying the text you can get an idea of what's in it by checking that site out. I was thinking that the value of the stock is the value of the stock...the actual number of shares really doesn't matter, but I'm not sure. You're correct.  Share price is meaningless.   Google is $700 per share, Apple is $100 per share, that doesn't say anything about either company and/or whether or not one is a better investment over the other. You should not evaluate an investment decision on price of a share.  Look at the books decide if the company is worth owning, then decide if it's worth owning at it's current price. "You could use any of various financial APIs (e.g., Yahoo finance) to get prices of some reference stock and bond index funds.  That would be a reasonable approximation to market performance over a given time span. As for inflation data, just googling ""monthly inflation data"" gave me two pages with numbers that seem to agree and go back to 1914.  If you want to double-check their numbers you could go to the source at the BLS. As for whether any existing analysis exists, I'm not sure exactly what you mean.  I don't think you need to do much analysis to show that stock returns are different over different time periods." "Step 2 is wrong. Leverage is NOT necessary. It increases possible gain, but increases risk of loss by essentially the same amount. Those two numbers are pretty tightly linked by market forces. See many, many other answers here showing that one can earn ""market rate"" -- 8% or so -- with far less risk and effort, if one is patient, and some evidence that one can do better with more effort and not too much more risk. And yes, investing for a longer time horizon is also safer."