How credible is Stansberry's video “End of America”?
"I listened to about 15 minutes of the video, but then I read your other link, which gives a much better summary. This guy is an idiot. Just consider this statement: ""If everyone was taxed at 100%, it wouldn't be enough to balance the federal budget."" This is true to some extent. It wouldn't be enough to balance the federal budget in one year. Experts often cite things like debt to GDP to show that a country's debt is ballooning, but they don't mention this obvious fact: We don't have to pay off our debts in a single year. Nobody does. Debt to GDP is a ratio and not the end all be all. Reinhart & Rogoff wrote a paper about how countries with high debt to GDP tend to have slower economic growth, but they don't mention that this occurs at every stage of debt growth. See Debt & Delusion by Dr. Robert Shiller for a great article on this subject. The daily kos article goes over most of the points I would make, but let me generalize a little: Always be wary of doomsday-predictors and free advice. This guy talks about correctly calling Fannie and Freddie. Even if he's right, why is he mentioning it? If he's such a good accountant and financial expert, surely he could've seen the tech bubble before the housing bubble right? It took a lot of analysis to figure out that CDO's were junk - anybody with the ability to read a balance sheet could see that many tech companies were overvalued. Every now and then, you get one hit wonders. They might never be right again, but they have the ""credentials."" If these people were really that good, they wouldn't be selling investment newsletters. They'd be applying their strategies and getting rich. Buffett has been getting rich for over 50 years, and he's not publishing newsletters with ""secret, genius"" strategies. He's made it pretty clear what his philosophy is, and anyone who follows it patiently will make money. Stransberry's argument only makes sense if you agree with the assumptions. The US will implode if nobody accepts our money. Nobody will accept our money if we're no longer the reserve currency or hyperinflation occurs or something like that. People have been predicting doom after every bubble, but that doesn't make it true. Some of his points (like the fact that we have too much debt) are valid, and I predict that the world will go into a period of deleveraging now. Nonetheless, the whole ""we will implode"" story is a scary picture, but it's just that - a picture." If we postulate that there is at least some element of truth to the phrase 'A leopard does not change his spots'  and then consider this tidbit He conveniently forgets to mention his 1.5 million dollar fraud fine   from the SEC over investment “advice” he sold through a news letter.   The SEC claimed and the judge agreed that the report was “replete with   lies”. I think that gives you just about all you might need to know regarding the man behind the video, and the nature of it's content.  Oh, and it's purpose?  To SELL YOU the same said newsletter. I guess it's natural for Stansberry to feel as he does. After all if the US gov had just busted me for conning and lying to folks, and fined ME 1.5Mill, I'd be having some pretty intense lurid fantasies about it going down in flames, and trying to hide any money I had left offshore also.   A huge amount of his argument hinges on the US no longer being the world's reserve currency.  Firstly, while I'll admit I'm none too happy with the way the national debt has been managed for oh, around 30 years how, (which includes I will note going from a pretty much balanced budget, to around an 80% increase in the debt from 2001 through 2008, when 'times were good' and there was little need to spend money we didn't have), when compared to a lot of other countries, we still don't look that bad.  You have to ask yourself this first, if not the US, then WHO?  are the governments of the world going to trust China? could the Yen handle the load?  Is the Euro any better off especially considering problems in Greece, Ireland, etc.  Do countries like Switzerland have enough liquidity and available ways to invest there?  In order for the US to STOP being the world's reserve currency, you must have something to replace it with, and really, can we realistically think of one country/currency with the capability to become a new 'world reserve currency'???  Secondly, even then should such a shift actually happen, it doesn't mean people will ALL just magically stop buying US debt.  Yes the demand would go down, but it would not go to zero.  There are after all a worldfull of other countries who's money is right now NOT the world reserve currency, and yet they are able to sell bonds and people and even other countries invest there. (China for example does not invest exclusively in the US), so yeah we might have to start paying more interest to get people to buy US debt, but it's not like the demand will go away.   Save your money, save your time, don't buy into this dung. "No. I glanced through the article you linked to.  It's quite lengthy, but not compelling. I'd not lose any sleep over this.  Others with far better credentials are making the opposite claim, that life is good and the Dow on its way to 20,000.   Back to this guy - StansberryResearch.com Reviews – Legit or Scam? offers a look at this company. Stansberry calls his company ""one of the largest and most recognized investment research companies in the world"" but references to his firm call it a clearinghouse for other authors newsletters.  Why would you give any more credence to his ranting than any other extreme prognostications?  I suppose if I told you I never heard of him it would be pretty meaningless. I certainly haven't heard of every financial writer. But if he's one of the most recognized, you'd think I might have. Note, I've edited since seeing I was downvoted. But to the question author, you might want to summarize your questions in the future instead of linking to a video or  13,000 word rant. (when you click to shut the video, the text is available.)" "I know nothing about the guy, but I think the ""premium"" products (Penny stock recommendations, a newsletter devoted to earning 12% per year, every year, etc) sold by his firm speak for themselves." "Others have covered this pretty well, but as someone who once worked for the company that allows Stansberry to publish, let me confirm that their business is about getting you to buy into the financial worldview they promote so that they can sell you more and more ""newsletters"" and ""services"". Nothing else. It's a marketing company, and Stansberry is nothing more than a copywriter." "Predictions, especially doomsday predictions, can go wrong quickly.  I would be careful of anyone calling an ""end"" to a country like the U.S., especially, if they have something to gain and a history of being wrong.  On the other hand, someone warning of something with a past of financial credibility can be quite useful.  For instance, compare Frank Stansberry to Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble on Twitter).  Jesse was one of the few who predicted the financial crisis in 2004 and is currently warning of new bubbles (ie: the higher education bubble) - even admitting to profiting off of some of them and encouraging others to do the same.  However, his assertions can be investigated to verify accuracy, but they are hardly the end of the end (in fact, Jesse likes to boast that he's an optimist and thinks eventually we'll usher in a Golden Age).  Frank Stansberry, on the other hand, doesn't seem to carry the credibility; a brief internet search generated some issues he's had with the SEC about misleading investors. (Completely forgot to add, Mike Shedlock - Mish - also has made some predictions that have come true and clashed with some other financial advisers over inflation vs. deflation.  While people were screaming ""HYPER-INFLATION"" back in 2008-2009, Mish constantly attacked them for being wrong, and has continued to be right.  Some of his political views, of course, aren't popular, but some of his financial predictions have been stellar.) Anyone who warns of anything should always be checked out for both what they've said, what they are currently saying, and what their agenda is.  As one of my mentors warned me, everyone has an agenda and that's not always bad - their agenda may align with yours, just make sure it does. [On a humorous side note, my father has predicted the end of the world every six months since 1994.]"
Trump is more credible than all the fake-news media: CNN, NYT, WaPo, etc.  **He's way way way more credible than Hillary who cheat on debate questions given to her by fake-news CNN! If my son cheated on a test in 1st grade like her, he will be expelled from school. Think for a second just about this.** David Brooks is a well known hack-fraud pundit over at the NYT. He thinks he is much smarter and more articulate than he actually is. His corner is kind of a right-leaning fiscal-conservative sometimes used as a counter-balance to give the appearance of neutrality on issues, despite the fact that he's not an expert or an economist. Generally you should avoid his work.   I can almost guarantee that he didn't take an 'uneducated lady friend' to a sandwich shop for lunch. And even if in a fictional universe he took her to a dumpy corner italian deli that served sandwiches, they would have the same names and dishes. And even if he did take her to a boujie boutique sandwich shop, you're probably right she probably popped her eyes seeing $12.50 for a sandwich and not weak in the knees from seeing so many vowels. "&gt; Spoken like one who's soul has already been sold.  Soul has been sold? It's comical how exaggeratedly apocalyptic your conspiracy theories are just because I'm willing to admit that not everybody at Fox fits into your conspiracy theory.  I don't even know what you're trying to say here anyways. Who are you implying bought my soul for what and why would my comment demonstrate that?  &gt; Real people know they're being lied to.  Yes, and Fox news viewers include many real people... which is why a portion of both viewers and presenters are indeed intelligent, well-meaning people looking for accurate reporting. There are plenty of intelligent and self-aware conservatives who are aware of media bias. Awareness of media bias is in large part why Fox viewers were so happy to have a conservative alternative. All media has bias and many people are more comfortable in the context of certain biases than others. The fact there are also presenters and viewers that don't fit this high integrity, high intelligence and/or high awareness description doesn't justify simplifying those who do out of the picture just to give your narrative a more pure sense of good and evil. It turns out that the real world is not so conveniently simple. There is bad in good. There is good in bad. You're enemy may do good things or work with good people. Your ally may do bad things or work with bad people. All people, parties, governments and businesses have competing interests some of which likely clash with yours and some of which probably align with yours. The real world is complex.  &gt; Some people don't understand the extent to which they are being manipulated.  This is why MY comment suggest that SOME people are one way and SOME people are another way. There is a big jump between this claim (a ""some"" statement) and your more extreme suggestions (""all of them"" / ""none of them"" statements). By disagreeing with my comment, you were making a jump to the latter which is not supported by a statement like this and requires stereotyping the world into an unrealistic black and white." I liked some of the video and I think you could do a lot worse.  But I also thought at times he made statements seem like they were agreed on outcomes/a known certainty , when they were really his opinion. FYI: This article is rife with errors/omissions/bends, including, but not limited to:  * The date/time when these restaurants closed * the implied reason for their closing (consumer taste had little to do with it) * The idea that Evo Morales had anything to do with the shutdown of 8 restaurants  This article is a bit amateurish and clearly contains an alarmist agenda.  Nothing to see here. I explain things in detail and with as much clarity I can muster without using buzz words.  I have publicly disagreed with pretty much every ideology at this point. Just because you disagree with my position does not make me partisan or biased against the truth. "Ugh. Follow the money trail. Who stands to make  $$$ off of the fake climate crisis? It's the same group that are lying 24/7 on all news outlets, using MSM NSA/CIA to influence elections- remember Wikileaks verified the NSA/Deep State has the capability to hack and leave a ""Russian footprint."" Which it's what's happening now. I'm not sure who the hell bilderbergs are but most seem to be Anglo, as does grovers.  Somebody is pulling all the strings for a world government and it won't be long before our sovereignty (USA) is history.  Russia is moot. A distant 4th to USA, Britain, Israel The Deep State rules the world out of America." "The Facebook ad sales aren't ""concrete"" enough for you?  Look dummy, we know for a fact that Russia interfered with the election.  No serious person disputes that.  What we don't know is how far their efforts went, but that's what we should expect because until he's done building his case, Mueller isn't going to reveal what he knows.  At this point, while it's still somewhat reasonable to be skeptical about the extent of Russian interference, denying that it happened at all just makes you look stupid or insane." "Videos in this thread:  [Watch Playlist &amp;#9654;](http://subtletv.com/_r6v5nrj?feature=playlist&amp;nline=1)  VIDEO|COMMENT -|- [Richard Spencer - I Am A Socialist And I Hate The Right Wing](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGhXo_a5NAM)|[+3](https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/6v5nrj/_/dly686k?context=10#dly686k) - Hey, I have brains! Maybe I'll google it!  ...  Ok, so it says here, in regards to the alt-right, that: ""White supremacist Richard Spencer coined the term in 2010""  And then, here's that guy that coined the term and is a major leader in the movement ... [Responsibility to the Poor](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rls8H6MktrA)|[+2](https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/6v5nrj/_/dly9xcd?context=10#dly9xcd) - To me that's a failure on a collective level.   I'd say it's more of a failure on a personal level. Without the mass of wealth that exists due to capitalism and free trade, there would be nothing to support anyone with. We wouldn't have to worry abou... (1) [Fake Begger Makes $100,000 year - The Real way to earn money Panhandling!](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPH4jl5kGp4) (2) [How Much Money I Made As A Panhandler - Confessions #4](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLc7VCznliU)|[+1](https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/6v5nrj/_/dlyyfc9?context=10#dlyyfc9) - When you only other choice is OR DIE, it's pretty much slavery. Getting to choose your master, oh I'm sorry, ""career path"" is just mincing words.   What do you think would happen if there were no other humans around? You'd have to work or die.   You ... I'm a bot working hard to help Redditors find related videos to watch. I'll keep this updated as long as I can. *** [Play All](http://subtletv.com/_r6v5nrj?feature=playlist&amp;ftrlnk=1) | [Info](https://np.reddit.com/r/SubtleTV/wiki/mentioned_videos) | Get me on [Chrome](https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/mentioned-videos-for-redd/fiimkmdalmgffhibfdjnhljpnigcmohf) / [Firefox](https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/mentioned-videos-for-reddit)" "See Also:  1. United States of America (USA) history lesson from Stephen Kinzer: #7b, #7c, #7d, and #7e at https://www.reddit.com/r/worldpolitics/comments/5bpc5x/an_update_for_my_readers_by_peter_levenda/ddlcuvl  2. ""The Origins of the Federal Reserve"" by Murray N. Rothbard: #8b at https://www.reddit.com/r/worldpolitics/comments/5bpc5x/an_update_for_my_readers_by_peter_levenda/ddlcuvl  3. James Mahaffey on nuclear/atomic power in the USA: #7d at https://np.reddit.com/r/worldpolitics/comments/5bpc5x/an_update_for_my_readers_by_peter_levenda/dfmc7kj  Source for #1, #2, and #3: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldpolitics/comments/5bpc5x/an_update_for_my_readers_by_peter_levenda/d9q9006 via https://www.reddit.com/r/Missing411/comments/41oph0/supernatural_abductions_in_japanese_folklore_by/cz3we2z" "1. ""[Threat of Nuclear War Back-Paul Craig Roberts](http://usawatchdog.com/threat-of-nuclear-war-back-paul-craig-roberts/)"" by Greg Hunter, published on 10 August 2014: http://usawatchdog.com/threat-of-nuclear-war-back-paul-craig-roberts/      Direct link to the full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lPeeGT8uVI (""Paul Craig Roberts-Flight from Dollar Will Cause Economy to Blow"")  2. (a) ""[Russian sanctions create surplus of European produce: Russian sanctions have left farmers in Europe high and dry. If they put their produce on EU markets, prices would likely crash. So what is to become of this year's harvest?](http://www.dw.de/russian-sanctions-create-surplus-of-european-produce/a-17857118)"" by Sabrina Pabst / tkw, published on 15 August 2014: http://www.dw.de/russian-sanctions-create-surplus-of-european-produce/a-17857118      (b) ""[Europe 'shot itself in foot' with Russia sanctions: Hungary PM](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/us-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-hungary-idUSKBN0GF0ES20140815)"" by Gergely Szakacs, published on 15 August 2014: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/us-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-hungary-idUSKBN0GF0ES20140815      (c) ""[Rosyjskie embargo bije w polskich przewoźników. Chcą rządowej pomocy](http://www.polskieradio.pl/42/3168/Artykul/1204632/)"" by Polskie Radio, published on 17 August 2014: http://www.polskieradio.pl/42/3168/Artykul/1204632/      English translation via Google Translate: [https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pl&amp;tl=en&amp;u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polskieradio.pl%2F42%2F3168%2FArtykul%2F1204632%2F](https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pl&amp;tl=en&amp;u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polskieradio.pl%2F42%2F3168%2FArtykul%2F1204632%2F)   3. (a) ""[West's historic drought stokes fears of water crisis](http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/2014/08/17/d5c84934-240c-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.html)"" by Joby Warrick, published on 17 August 2014: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/2014/08/17/d5c84934-240c-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.html      (b) ""[U.S. Farmers Are Up to Their Ears in Corn](http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farmers-are-up-to-their-ears-in-corn-1408318910)"" by Tony C. Dreibus and Jesse Newman, published on 17 August 2014: http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farmers-are-up-to-their-ears-in-corn-1408318910" No he's talking literally about an nra ad. I linked it below, the video I link has a bunch of commentary I didn't watch but it's the only version I could find quickly on mobile. The ad is like 15 seconds in    https://youtu.be/mWhCb7Ajkfk "&gt;*""Notes: National Economics Editorial (NEE) is a news site that purports to support Economic Nationalism. While NEE does cover some economic issues it is, as the name implies, mainly an editorial site. The opinions expressed in the stories cover current affairs with a pronounced right wing bias. NEE is, on the whole, long on rhetoric and short on factual content and credible sourcing. Due to the overt bias and lack of factual information, NEE is rated Questionable. (D. Kelley 3/29/2017)""*   [Doesn't seem like a site that I'd trust for anything apart from predictable, far right, propaganda](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-economics-editorial/)" It is important for you to understand the calculus of the situation, while the Orange buffoon prances around in front of the world keeping people suitable entertained, a deeper and darker agenda is at play in the back ground.  It is not America first or the American people first, it is the Israeli agenda first and Israeli control of the US government and economy that is at play here, this is not a conspiracy or some tall tale, it is a simple statement of fact now and common knowledge.  Jokes aside, Nathanyahu is now permanently infesting Donald Trumps rectum and calling the shots.  The is only one way, Donald Trump can free himself of this infestation and free America and the American People from this Israeli Parasitic grip.  I am afraid you are going to have to go nuclear, you can have a nuclear bomb and still hug the trees and hump the whales . . .but if you don't have a nuclear bomb, it will not be too long before you become a terrorist state and are a threat to Israel's survival and must be wiped off the face of the earth.  You are never going to be part of the EU and always a second rate citizen in NATO and will end up going the way of Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Iran  Nuke up . . .Protect yourself "I started storing and summing all my receipts, bills, etc. It has the advantage of letting me separate expenses by category, but it's messy and it takes a long time.  It sounds from this like you are making your summaries far too detailed. Don't. Instead, start by painting with broad strokes. For example, if you spent $65.17 at the grocery store, don't bother splitting that amount into categories like toiletries, hygiene products, food, and snacks: just categorize it as ""grocery spending"" and move on to the next line on your account statement. Similarly, unless your finances are heavily reliant on cash, don't worry about categorizing each cash expense; rather, just categorize the withdrawal of cash as miscellaneous and don't spend time trying to figure out exactly where the money went after that. Because honestly, you probably spent it on something other than savings. Because really, when you are just starting out getting a handle on your spending, you don't need all the nitty-gritty details. What you need, rather, is an idea of where your money is going. Figure out half a dozen or so categories which make sense for you to categorize your spending into (you probably have some idea of where your money is going). These could be loans, cost of living (mortgage/rent, utilities, housing, home insurance, ...), groceries, transportation (car payments, fuel, vehicle taxes, ...), savings, and so on -- whatever fits your situation. Add a miscellaneous category for anything that doesn't neatly fit into one of the categories you thought of. Go back something like 3-4 months among your account statements, do a quick categorization for each line on your account statements into one of these categories, and then sum them up per category and per month. Calculate the monthly average for each category. That's your starting point: the budget you've been living by (intentionally or not). After that, you can decide how you want to allocate the money, and perhaps dig a bit more deeply into some specific category. Turns out you are spending a lot of money on transportation which you didn't expect? Look more closely at those line items and see if there's something you can cut. Are you spending more money at the grocery store than you thought? Then look more closely at that. And so on. Once you know where you are and where you want to be (such as for example bumping the savings category by $200 per month), you can adjust your budget to take you closer to your goals. Chances are you won't realistically be able to do an about-face turn on the spot, but you can try to reduce some discretionary category by, say, 10% each month, and transfer that into savings instead. That way, in 6-7 months, you have cut that category in half."