2008-2009 Stock Market Crash — what caused the second drop?
"The second drop was part of the same event. The short-term resurgence is often called a ""dead cat bounce"". Mongus Pong's answer is a great answer, I'm going to approach from a more anecdotal POV. Think about the fear that was in the air in Fall 2008. From my recollection, that short-term stabilization came from the Fed, President, Congress, etc standing up and saying that the government would do everything in its power to maintain liquidity in the marketplace. So the fear of a broader collapse of investment banks (beyond Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, etc) due to the Fed behaving as it did in 1929 was abated. By the time you got to Q1 of 2009, it became clear that business vaporized -- nothing was happening. No cars were selling, Christmas was dismal, vacations were cancelled. (example: I went on vacation to a fancy resort in December 2008 and paid $60/night for a $450/night room! The place was half empty.)" Ultimately no one really knows what causes the markets to rise and fall beyond supply and demand. If more people want to buy then sell, prices go up. And if more people want to sell, prices go down. The news channels will often try to attribute a specific reason to the price move, but that is largely just guess work to fill up the news pages so people have something to read. You may find it interesting to read up on the Elliot wave principle. The crash of 2008 was a perfect Elliot Wave fit. Elliot Wave theory states that social moods (which ultimately drive the stock market) generally occur in a relatively predictable pattern. The crash in September was a Wave 3 down. This is where the majority of people give up hope. However there are still a few people who are still holding on. The markets tend to meander about during wave 4. Finally the last few people give up hope and sell out. This causes the final crash of wave 5. Only when the last person has given up hope can the markets start to go up again.. "First, I would like to use a better chart.  In my opinion, a close of day line chart obscures a lot of important information.  Here is a daily OHLC log chart:  The initial drop from the 1099.23 close on Oct 3 was to 839.8 intraday, to close at 899.22 on Oct 10.  After this the market was still very volatile and reached a low of 747.78 on Nov 20, closing only slightly higher than this.  It traded as high as 934.70 on Jan 6, 2009, but the whole period of Nov 24 - Feb 13 was somewhat of a trading range of roughly 800-900.  Despite this, the news reports of the time were frequently saying things like ""this isn't going to be a V shaped recovery, it is going to be U shaped.""  The roughly one week dip you see Feb 27 - Mar 9 taking it to an intraday low of 666.79 (only about 11% below the previous low) on first glance appears to be just a continuation of the previous trend.   However... The Mar 10 uptrend started with various news articles (such as this one) which I recall at the time suggested things like reinstating the parts of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 which had been repealed by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act.  Although these attempts appear to have been unsuccessful, the widespread telegraphing of such attempts in the media seemed to have reversed a common notion which I saw widespread on forums and other places that, ""we are going to be in this mess forever, the market has nowhere to go but down, and therefore shorting the market is a good idea now.""  I don't find the article itself, but one prominent theme was the ""up-tick"" rule on short selling: source From this viewpoint, then, that the last dip was driven not so much by a recognition that the economy was really in the toilet (as this really was discounted in the first drop and at least by late November had already been figured into the price).  Instead, it was sort of the opposite of a market top, where now you started seeing individual investors jump on the band-wagon and decide that now was the time for a foray into selling (short).  The fact that the up-tick rule was likely to be re-instated had a noticeable effect on halting the final slide."
I would say the real story is less about the implications of low vol but rather what has caused it. IMO that would be:  1) lots of money chasing a handful of investments    a) loose monetary policy    b) wealth effects from fantastic returns since the GR    c) consolidation in various sectors (health, energy, tech)  2) rise of low cost index funds (all inflow go into the large swathes of the market so volatility across stocks is dampened)   3) various externalities of expansionary Fed policy    a) resulting low bond yields lead to larger flows into equities     b) low cost of debt feeding buybacks     c) it has been sustained for so long it has had stabilizing effect i.e. predictability is good for markets and business decision making   These factors make for an interesting story because what happens when some component of this system begins to show cracks? What happens when this low vol feedback loop ceases? Nobody knows. But it will not continue ad infinitum. Not all doom and gloom but it won't be the market we are used to today. The real folly is in believing that somehow 'regulators' are going to be able to prevent crashes, or even if this is desirable.  Usually the idea that regulators can prevent crashes relies on regulators being issued a retroactive time machine.  Crashes.  Happen.   If regulators had more power and more authority prior to 2008, the housing market crash would have been worse and more severe than it actually was, because regulators were like everyone else - they believed house prices would never go down, and were focussing their efforts on regulating  banks to lend *more* money to *riskier* borrowers. If you're willing to entertain the fact that a lack of any action by the fed would have killed market confidence and caused equities to tank, gold could have been a suitable asset in a flight to quality.  Of course as others have said the drop would just be the uncertainty about QE3 being removed from the price From mid 2007 to early 2009 the DJI went down about 50 %. This market setback won't happen on a single day or even a few weeks.  Emergency funds should be in cash only. Markets could be closed for an unknown period of time.  Markets where closed September 11 until September 17 in 2001. "When people (even people in the media) say: ""The stock market is up because of X"" or ""The stock market is down because of Y"", they are often engaging in what Nicolas Taleb calls the narrative falacy. They see the market has moved in one direction or another, they open their newspaper, pick a headline that provides a plausible reason for the market to move, and say: ""Oh, that is why the stock market is down"". Very rarely do statements like this actually come from research, asking people why they bought or sold that day. Sometimes they may be right, but it is usually just story telling. In terms of old fashioned logic this is called the ""post hoc, ergo proper hoc"" fallacy. Now all the points people have raised about the US deficit may be valid, and there are plenty of reasons for worrying about the future of the world economy, but they were all known before the S&P report, which didn't really provide the markets with much new information. Note also that the actual bond market didn't move much after hearing the same report, in fact the price of 10 year US Treasury bonds actually rose a tiny bit. Take these simple statements about what makes the market go up or down on any given day with several fistfuls of salt." "Written by Alastair Williamson. Notable author of articles such as   ""The Whole Damn System May Collapse Next Year"",   ""Major Crisis of Cuture And Economy Coming Soon"",   ""Horrendous Storm to Hit Stocks"",   ""Central Banks Have Failed, Now They Exit, Economic Crash Expected"",  ""DETROIT FORETELLS AMERICA’S FUTURE: IT’S VERY BAD"",  ""THE TRIANGLE OF DEATH IN BALTIMORE: Hundreds of Murders Happen Here""  I sense a pattern here.   https://squawker.org/author/alistair-williamson/" Everyone and their grandmother has been expecting QE to taper since May 2013. If the drop is caused by that, then it shouldn't be too serious.  Also, can people stop comparing stuff to 2009? 2009 was a unique once-in-a-lifetime circumstance, and not indicative of actual market values. That doesn't change anything. You're still judging an investment off a 5 year period which includes a massive event which destroyed oil stocks. My previous analogy still applies, if you held 2 portfolios, one with tech stocks and one without for the 5 year period that includes the tech crash in the early 2000s, of course the non tech one would outperform the tech one.  XLE, an energy etf, dropped 30% at the end of that period. That has an outsized influence on your article there. You're describing a dynamic that may contribute to lower house prices. It doesn't however speak to how those prices got so lofty, so untethered from wages and the broader economy to begin with and why the losses from the fall were amplified so many times over.  That's a story you can't tell without working through the systemic fraud. I think that the 2008 events represented a loss of a very large amount of equity for Americas, also it had a ripple effect around the world on other countries.  Now - almost as if they wanted it to happen again, the Obama Administration's trade policy and big EU banks are pushing to use the [global TISA trade in services trade deal](http://corporateeurope.org/blog/342-civil-society-groups-oppose-deregulation-and-privatisation-proposed-services-agreement-tisa) to quietly irreversibly deregulate a huge number of areas whch will effect hundreds of millions of people, including the banking industry- deregulate global banks, which is exactly the wrong thing to do.  Deregulation is what caused the 2008 crisis- http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/08/27/repeal-of-glass-steagall-caused-the-financial-crisis "Because more people bought it than sold it. That's really all one can say. You look for news stories related to the event, but you don't really know that's what drove people to buy or sell. We're still trying to figure out the cause of the recent flash crash, for example. For the most part, I feel journalism trying to describe why the markets moved is destined to fail.  It's very complicated. Stocks can fall on above average earnings reports, and rise on dismal annual reports. I've heard a suggestion before that people ""buy on the rumor, sell on the news"". Which is just this side of insider trading." I don't trust his analysis.  Further, any composite measure that includes a Black Swan year is *at least potentially* misleading. 2009 was a once in multigenerations event unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.  Since Shiller uses a 10 year historical running average it includes 2009 and is therefore, IMO, unreliable. Making 2009 look even more like an aberration is that the hole had been filled and then some in under 4 years. I hate attributing an event like this to a single cause.  That implies that the market is an orderly system where everything operates smoothly.  I prefer to see it as much chaotic. When I see a drop like that happen, I'd say that there were a lot of sellers of stocks and all the buyers were bidding less and less for those few minutes.  Perhaps the catalyst for that was a typo or a strange order.  But in the end all the participants in the market responded by bidding down stocks, not just one person.  It takes sides to complete a trade. I know my model is a bit simplistic...  I'd be happy if someone corrected me :-) It is very simple.  You bought the house when prices were near their peak in 2008.  Housing prices have dropped considerably since then which was the main cause of the mortgage debacle because people had houses that were worth less than their mortgages. It will be most interesting to see what happens as Oil starts to get traded more in more in other currencies.  In the controlled demolition that was the WTC, you could see the disbelief in peoples faces as the top started to topple and the first few floors pancaked, then the fear as they realized the whole thing was coming down and they started to run.  Feels the same, a controlled demolition, 9.8 m/s^2 all the way down. Free fall