Understanding about Williams' Alligator Indicator?
Is that indicator can only be used for short-term trade? First of all, indicator works perfect during trends and oscillator works perfectly in the range market(or flat market). So, indicator can be used for long term, as well as short term. I mean if it is a range market, using this or any other indicator will not help much, so it you should consider market direction first. If it can be used to long-term trade, is there something I need to change from the parameters used? like, only using SMMA(5,8,13)? The parameters are there to change them. Of course you can change them based on your trading style. Considering my statement above does not mean that trading is very easy. I never use indicators alone to make trading decisions. It is always good to use oscillator to filter out bad trading signals.
Oh ok I see what you are getting at with the misdirection angle. I was wondering if there was a deeper meaning. Like making it more expensive for other nation to borrow money would help in some way for the US to unload it’s garbage? "First lets understand what convexity means: Convexity -  convexity refers to non-linearities in a financial model. In other   words, if the price of an underlying variable changes, the price of an   output does not change linearly, but depends on the second derivative   (or, loosely speaking, higher-order terms) of the modeling function.   Geometrically, the model is no longer flat but curved, and the degree   of curvature is called the convexity. Okay so for us idiots this means: if the price of ABC (we will call P) is determined by X and Y. Then if X decreases by 5 then the value of P might not necessarily decrease by 5 but instead is also dependent on Y (wtf$%#! is Y?, who cares, its not important for us to know, we can understand what convexity is without knowing the math behind it). So if we chart this the line would look like a curve. (clearly this is an over simplification of the math involved but it gives us an idea) So now in terms of options, convexity is also known as gamma, it will probably be easier to talk about gamma instead of using a confusing word like convexity(gamma is the convexity of options). So lets define Gamma: Gamma - The rate of change for delta with respect to the underlying asset's price. So the gamma of an option indicates how the delta of an option will change relative to a 1 point move in the underlying asset. In other words, the Gamma shows the option delta's sensitivity to market price changes. or Gamma shows how volatile an option is relative to movements in the underlying asset. So the answer is: If we are long gamma (convexity of an option) it simply means we are betting on higher volatility in the underlying asset(in your case the VIX). Really that simple? Well kinda, to fully understand how this works you really need to understand the math behind it. But yes being long gamma means being long volatility. An example of being ""long gamma"" is a ""long straddle"" Side Note: I personally do trade the VIX and it can be very volatile, you can make or lose lots of money very quickly trading VIX options. Some resources: What does it mean to be ""long gamma"" in options trading? Convexity(finance) Long Gamma – How to Make a Long Gamma Position Work for You Delta - Investopedia Straddles & Strangles - further reading if your interested. Carry(investment) - even more reading." I don't think that there's a specific  number or index that gives you what you're looking for. I think the closest thing to it would be the velocity of money, which is a measure of how often money changes hands.  Also, for what it's worth, I believe that this concept is controversial in some circles. "Sure they work - right until they don't. Explanation: A stock picking strategy based on technical indicators is at worst a mix of random guessing and confirmation bias, which will ""work"" only due to luck.  At best, it exploits a systematic inefficiency of the market. And any such inefficiency will automatically disappear when it is exploited by many traders. If it's published in a book, it is pretty much guaranteed not to work anymore. Oh, and you only get to know in hindsight (if at all) which of the two cases above applies to any given strategy." "First, I would like to use a better chart.  In my opinion, a close of day line chart obscures a lot of important information.  Here is a daily OHLC log chart:  The initial drop from the 1099.23 close on Oct 3 was to 839.8 intraday, to close at 899.22 on Oct 10.  After this the market was still very volatile and reached a low of 747.78 on Nov 20, closing only slightly higher than this.  It traded as high as 934.70 on Jan 6, 2009, but the whole period of Nov 24 - Feb 13 was somewhat of a trading range of roughly 800-900.  Despite this, the news reports of the time were frequently saying things like ""this isn't going to be a V shaped recovery, it is going to be U shaped.""  The roughly one week dip you see Feb 27 - Mar 9 taking it to an intraday low of 666.79 (only about 11% below the previous low) on first glance appears to be just a continuation of the previous trend.   However... The Mar 10 uptrend started with various news articles (such as this one) which I recall at the time suggested things like reinstating the parts of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 which had been repealed by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act.  Although these attempts appear to have been unsuccessful, the widespread telegraphing of such attempts in the media seemed to have reversed a common notion which I saw widespread on forums and other places that, ""we are going to be in this mess forever, the market has nowhere to go but down, and therefore shorting the market is a good idea now.""  I don't find the article itself, but one prominent theme was the ""up-tick"" rule on short selling: source From this viewpoint, then, that the last dip was driven not so much by a recognition that the economy was really in the toilet (as this really was discounted in the first drop and at least by late November had already been figured into the price).  Instead, it was sort of the opposite of a market top, where now you started seeing individual investors jump on the band-wagon and decide that now was the time for a foray into selling (short).  The fact that the up-tick rule was likely to be re-instated had a noticeable effect on halting the final slide." A system for monitoring, processing and storing operating parameters of a boiler room. A sonar gauge for measuring the level of liquid fuel in a storage tank, thermocouples to measure temperatures at varous points in the boiler room, and means to monitor the operating status of boiler room equipment are provided. Means to convert to digital data, store and analyze the digital data, and transmit the digital data to a remote location are provided.  Inventor: Jeffrey Solomon Primary Examiner: S. A. Melnick Current U.S. Classification: 702/54; 122/448.1; 237/8.00A International Classification: G06F 1574  View patent at USPTO Search USPTO Assignment Database Citations Cited Patent Filing date Issue date Original Assignee Title US3873817 May 4, 1972 Mar 2, 1975  LPT(I)SIH US4275382 Jul 18, 1979 Jun 23, 1981  Apparatus for monitoring and controlling vessels containing liquid US4373662 Oct 17, 1980 Feb 15, 1983 Honeywell Inc. Integrated control system using a microprocessor US4403296 Dec 18, 1980 Sep 6, 1983 Electromedics, Inc. Measuring and determination device for calculating an output determination based on a mathematical relationship between multiple different input responsive transducers US4433646 Sep 16, 1982 Feb 28, 1984 The Babcock &amp; Wilcox Company Boiler water trip system US4486625 Sep 29, 1982 Dec 4, 1984 Clear Meadow Research Co. 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Method and arrangement for signal transmission in ultrasonic echo sounding systems US4716536 Apr 16, 1985 Dec 29, 1987 The Foxboro Company Measurement calibration US4782698 Dec 29, 1986 Nov 8, 1988 General Motors Corporation Method and apparatus for measuring oil level US4788648 May 27, 1986 Nov 29, 1988 Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Method and system for measurement of a liquid level in a tank US4864972 Jun 8, 1987 Sep 12, 1989  Boiler optimization for multiple boiler heating plants US4922861 Jan 25, 1989 May 8, 1990 Toto Ltd. Multiple-purpose instantaneous gas water heater US4966127 Jan 19, 1988 Oct 30, 1990  Method and apparatus for saving energy in direct fired boilers Referenced by Citing Patent Filing date Issue date Original Assignee Title US5279263 Feb 5, 1993 Jan 18, 1994 Elsag International B.V. Cascaded steam temperature control applied to a universal pressure boiler US5419285 Apr 25, 1994 May 30, 1995 Henry Vogt Machine Co. Boiler economizer and control system US5793705 Sep 18, 1996 Aug 11, 1998 International Business Machines Corporation Ultrasonic liquid level gauge for tanks subject to movement and vibration US6059195 Jan 23, 1998 May 9, 2000 Tridelta Industries, Inc. Integrated appliance control system US6129284 Sep 17, 1999 Oct 10, 2000 Tridelta Industries, Inc. Integrated appliance control system US6536678 Dec 15, 2000 Mar 25, 2003 Honeywell International Inc. Boiler control system and method US6647302 Dec 15, 2000 Nov 11, 2003 Honeywell International Inc. Human interface panel for boiler control system US6745085 Dec 15, 2000 Jun 1, 2004 Honeywell International Inc. Fault-tolerant multi-node stage sequencer and method for energy systems US6813631 Dec 15, 2000 Nov 2, 2004 Honeywell International Inc. Automatic self configuration of client-supervisory nodes US7016742 Nov 27, 2002 Mar 21, 2006 BaHelle Memorial Institute Decision support for operations and maintenance (DSOM) system US7196891 Jul 27, 2004 Mar 27, 2007 Macronix International Co., Ltd. Control circuit for frequency converter US7891572 Apr 5, 2007 Feb 22, 2011 C. Cowles &amp; Company Temperature and low water monitoring for boiler systems US8008603 Aug 31, 2007 Aug 30, 2011  Boiler protection apparatus and method US8009060 Sep 26, 2001 Aug 30, 2011 Lockheed Martin Corporation Remote monitoring of munition assets US8068727 Jan 29, 2008 Nov 29, 2011 AOS Holding Company Storage-type water heater having tank condition monitoring features US8162232 Mar 21, 2008 Apr 24, 2012 AOS Holding Company Water storage device having a powered anode Claims 1. A system for automatically monitoring, processing, and storing operating parameters of a boiler room comprising:  (a) means for detecting a level of liquid fuel in a storage tank and generating a fist set of electrical signals indicating the level; (b) means for measuring temperatures at various locations in the boiler room and generating a second set of electrical signals indicative of the temperatures; (c) means for monitoring the operating status of a plurality of conventional boiler room equipment and generating a third set of electrical signals indicative of the monitored operating status; (d) computer means located in the boiler room for selecting from the first, second and third set of electrical signals generated and internally processing and storing the selected electrical signals in accordance with a set of internally programmed instructions; and (e) means for transmitting the processed signals stored in the computer means from the computer means located in the boiler room to a computer located in a remote location. 2. A system as in claim 1 wherein the means for detecting the level of liquid in the storage tank comprises a sonar device mounted in the storage tank comprising:  (a) means for transmitting an ultrasonic signal in a direction generally perpendicular to the surface of the liquid fuel in the storage tank; (b) means for detecting an echo of the transmitted ultrasonic signal from the surface level of the liquid fuel in the storage tank; (c) means for electrically measuring a time differential between transmission of the ultrasonic signal and the detection of the echo of the ultrasonic signal; and (d) means for generating the first electrical signal indicative of the level of the liquid fuel in the storage tank in accordance with the measured time differential. 3. A system as in claim 2 wherein the first electrical signal consists of electrical current the value of which is indicative of the level of the liquid fuel in the storage tank.  4. A system as in claim 3 wherein the computer means comprises an interface means comprising:  (a) a resistor means for converting the electrical current into an analog voltage, the value of which is indicative of the level of the liquid fuel in the storage tank; and (b) analog to digital conversion means for converting the analog voltage into a digital signal which can be processed by the computer means. 5. A system as in claim 1 wherein the means for measuring the temperatures at various locations in the boiler room comprises thermocouple devices located at the point at which the temperature is measured, which generate the second set of electrical signals indicative of the measured temperatures.  6. A system as in claim 5 wherein the thermocouple devices are comprised of:  (a) a first thermocouple at the liquid fuel drawn from the storage tank; (b) a second thermocouple at the water resident in a boiler room; (c) a third thermocouple at the water drawn from the boiler for use as domestic hot water; and (d) a fourth thermocouple at the gases expelled from the boiler through a stack. 7. A system as in claim 6 wherein the second set of electrical signals is comprised of analog voltage signals.  8. A system as in claim 7 wherein the computer means comprises an interface means comprising analog to digital conversion means for converting the analog voltage signals into a set of digital signals which can be processed by the computer means. "Thanks for the response.   I am using WRDS database and we are currently filtering through various variables like operating income, free cash flow etc.  Main issue right now is that the database seems to only go up to 2015...is there a similar database that has 2016 info?  filtering out the ""recent equity issuance or M&amp;A activity exceeding 10% of total assets"" is another story, namely, how can I identify M&amp;A activity? I suppose we can filter it with algorithm stating if company's equity suddenly jumps 10% or more, it get's flagged" I agree with @Turukawa that the x-axes need to be the same to make a direct comparison.  However, the graphs you linked make me think of introductory calculus:  If you time averaged plots, speculative investments (gold, housing) seem to have many large concave up time periods and the dow jones has many concave down sections.  Using the concavity test: If the first derivative tells you about the rate of change, the second derivative tells you about the rate of change of rate of change.  Remember back to Physics 101:  1st derivative is velocity & second derivative is acceleration.   It would be interesting to have the same time scales for your plots & compare these accelerations between the two.  I suspect the more volatile investments would have larger (in magnitude) accelerations during boom/bust cycles than less speculative investments. Institute of Supply Management, specifically their Report on Business. Good forward looking indicator.   As far as the weekly report, I'd probably read it, maybe even contribute, but I more of a lurker on this sub. I saw your question and have had some similar experiences so I thought I could help you out. fibonacci levels (retracements,expansions, arcs) are all arbitrary numbers with no statistical significance. that said thousands of traders world over use, view and depend on fib numbers in their trading ranging from forex, stock commodities etc the point is if it's traded a fibonacci number has been used on it, because of this unanimity on their significance & application the fibonacci's thus act as valid anchors since so many traders are looking at the same levels (self-fulfilling prophecy). the values of the fib numbers are all equally significant i.e the 23.6. 38.2, 50, or 61.8 are statistically all equally likely to occur. you just have to be vigilant as your trade approaches the fib levels. What it is trying to describe is the psychology around the current price of the stock.  In candlestick charts for example, if you get what is called a Bearish Engulfing Candle (where the open is higher than the previous day's close and the close is lower than the previous day's open) at the top of an uptrend, this could mean that the top may have been reached and the bears are taking over the bulls. A Bearish Engulfing candle is seen as a bearish reversal pattern, as the bulls start the day by opening the stock at a higher price than yesterday's close, but by the end of the day the bears have taken over as the price drops below yesterday's open. This reversal pattern can be even more pronounced and effective if it coincides with other chart indicators, such as an overbought momentum indicator. If you want to learn more look up about the Psychology of the market and Candlestick Charting. [] As you can see from the graphs above, as absolute distance from ATM (At The Money) increases, the ratio represented by Delta begins to approach 0:1 or 1:1. Meaning, as Delta approaches 1 the option price moves up 1 dollar for every 1 dollar the stock price moves up. As Delta approaches 0 the option price does not move as the stock price moves. As the absolute distance from ATM increases Gamma approaches zero (0). Meaning, as the price of the option increases or decrease the change in delta is at its highest as the option price is nearest the money. As the price of the option moves away from the money, in either direction, it changes less drastically. Interestingly, Delta is the first derivative of the value of the option price with respect to the underlying asset price. And Gamma is the first derivative of Delta. Definition of Delta Definition of Gamma This strategy is called trading the 'Golden Cross' if the 50 day SMA moves above the 200 day, or the 'Death Cross' when the 50 day SMA moves below the 200 day SMA. Long-term indicators carry more weight than shorter-term indicators, and this cross, in a positive direction signals a change in momentum of the stock. You will not catch the very bottom using this method, but there is a better chance that you will catch a move near the beginning of a longer-term trend. Golden Cross Information - Zacks Graphs are nothing but a representation of data. Every time a trade is made, a point is plotted on the graph. After points are plotted, they are joined in order to represent the data in a graphical format.  Think about it this way.  1.) Walmart shuts at 12 AM. 2.)Walmart is selling almonds at $10 a pound.  3.) Walmart says that the price is going to reduce to $9 effective tomorrow. 4.) You are inside the store buying almonds at 11:59 PM.  5.) Till you make your way up to the counter, it is already 12:01 AM, so the store is technically shut. 6.) However, they allow you to purchase the almonds since you were already in there.  7.) You purchase the almonds at $9 since the day has changed. 8.) So you have made a trade and it will reflect as a point on the graph. 9.) When those points are joined, the curves on the graph will be created. 10.) The data source is Walmart's system as it reflects the sale to you. ( In your case the NYSE exchange records this trade made). Buying a stock is just like buying almonds. There has to be a buyer. There has to be a seller. There has to be a price to which both agree. As soon as all these conditions are met, and the trade is made, it is reflected on the graph. The only difference between the graphs from 9 AM-4 PM, and 4 PM-9 AM is the time. The trade has happened regardless and NYSE(Or any other stock exchange) has recorded it! The graph is just made from that data. Cheers. "I don't understand what the D, to the right of APPLE INC, means. This means the graph below is for the ""D"". There is selection at top and you can change this to Minutes [5,20,60,etc], Day, Week [W], Month [M] I'm not understanding how it can say BATS when in actuality AAPL is listed on the NASDAQ. Do all exchanges have info on every stock even from other exchanges and just give them to end-users at a delayed rate? BATS is an exchange. A stock can be listed on multiple exchange. I am not sure if AAPL is also listed on BATS. However looks like BATS has agreement with major stock exchanges to trade their data and supplies this to trading.com"