How to evaluate investment risk in practical terms
"Generally investing in index-tracking funds in the long term poses relatively low risk (compared to ""short term investment"", aka speculation). No-one says differently. However, it is a higher risk than money-market/savings/bonds. The reason for that is that the return is not guaranteed and loss is not limited. Here volatility plays part, as well as general market conditions (although the volatility risk also affects bonds at some level as well). While long term trend may be upwards, short term trend may be significantly different. Take as an example year 2008 for S&P500. If, by any chance, you needed to liquidate your investment in November 2008 after investing in November 1998 - you might have ended up with 0 gain (or even loss). Had you waited just another year (or liquidated a year earlier) - the result would be significantly different. That's the volatility risk. You don't invest indefinitely, even when you invest long term. At some point you'll have to liquidate your investment. Higher volatility means that there's a higher chance of downward spike just at that point of time killing your gains, even if the general trend over the period around that point of time was upward (as it was for S&P500, for example, for the period 1998-2014, with the significant downward spikes in 2003 and 2008). If you invest in major indexes, these kinds of risks are hard to avoid (as they're all tied together). So you need to diversify between different kinds of investments (bonds vs stocks, as the books ""parrot""), and/or different markets (not only US, but also foreign)."
"This turned out be a lot longer than I expected.  So, here's the overview. Despite the presence of asset allocation calculators and what not, this is a subjective matter.  Only you know how much risk you are willing to take.  You seem to be aware of one rule of thumb, namely that with a longer investing horizon you can stand to take on more risk.  However, how much risk you should take is subject to your own risk aversion.  Honestly, the best way to answer your questions is to educate yourself about the individual topics.  There are just too many variables to provide neat, concise answers to such a broad question.  There are no easy ways around this.  You should not blindly rely on the opinions of others, but rather use your own judgment to asses their advice. Some of the links I provide in the main text: S&P 500: Total and Inflation-Adjusted Historical Returns 10-year index fund returns The Motley Fool Risk aversion Disclaimer: These are the opinions of an enthusiastic amateur.  Why should I invest 20% in domestic large cap and 10% in developing markets instead of 10% in domestic large cap and 20% in developing markets? Should I invest in REITs? Why or why not?  Simply put, developing markets are very risky.  Even if you have a long investment horizon, you should pace yourself and not take on too much risk.  How much is ""too much"" is ultimately subjective.  Specific to why 10% in developing vs 20% in large cap, it is probably because 10% seems like a reasonable amount of your total portfolio to gamble.  Another way to look at this is to consider that 10% as gone, because it is invested in very risky markets.  So, if you're willing to take a 20% haircut, then by all means do that.  However, realize that you may be throwing 1/5 of your money out the window. Meanwhile, REITs can be quite risky as investing in the real estate market itself can be quite risky.  One reason is that the assets are very much fixed in place and thus can not be liquidated in the same way as other assets.  Thus, you are subject to the vicissitudes of a relatively small market.  Another issue is the large capital outlays required for most commercial building projects, thus typically requiring quite a bit of credit and risk.  Another way to put it: Donald Trump made his name in real estate, but it was (and still is) a very bumpy ride.  Yet another way to put it: you have to build it before they will come and there is no guarantee that they will like what you built. What mutual funds or index funds should I investigate to implement these strategies?  I would generally avoid actively managed mutual funds, due to the expenses.  They can seriously eat into the returns.  There is a reason that the most mutual funds compare themselves to the Lipper average instead of something like the S&P 500.  All of those costs involved in managing a mutual fund (teams of people and trading costs) tend to weigh down on them quite heavily.  As the Motley Fool expounded on years ago, if you can not do better than the S&P 500, you should save yourself the headaches and simply invest in an S&P 500 index fund. That said, depending on your skill (and luck) picking stocks (or even funds), you may very well have been able to beat the S&P 500 over the past 10 years.  Of course, you may have also done a whole lot worse.  This article discusses the performance of the S&P 500 over the past 60 years.  As you can see, the past 10 years have been a very bumpy ride yielding in a negative return.  Again, keep in mind that you could have done much worse with other investments. That site, Simple Stock Investing may be a good place to start educating yourself.  I am not familiar with the site, so do not take this as an endorsement.  A quick once-over of the material on the site leads me to believe that it may provide a good bit of information in readily digestible forms.  The Motley Fool was a favorite site of mine in the past for the individual investor.  However, they seem to have turned to the dark side, charging for much of their advice.  That said, it may still be a good place to get started.  You may also decide that it is worth paying for their advice. This blog post, though dated, compares some Vanguard index funds and is a light introduction into the contrarian view of investing.  Simply put, this view holds that one should not be a lemming following the crowd, rather one should do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.  One strong argument in favor of this view is the fact that as more people pile onto an investing strategy or into a particular market, the yields thin out and the risk of a correction (i.e. a downturn) increases.   In the worst case, this leads to a bubble, which corrects itself suddenly (or ""pops"" thus the term ""bubble"") leading to quite a bit of pain for the unprepared participants.  An unprepared participant is one who is not hedged properly.  Basically, this means they were not invested in other markets/strategies that would increase in yield as a result of the event that caused the bubble to pop.   Note that the recent housing bubble and resulting credit crunch beat quite heavily on the both the stock and bond markets.  So, the easy hedge for stocks being bonds did not necessarily work out so well.  This makes sense, as the housing bubble burst due to concerns over easy credit. Unfortunately, I don't have any good resources on hand that may provide starting points or discuss the various investing strategies.  I must admit that I am turning my interests back to investing after a hiatus.   As I stated, I used to really like the Motley Fool, but now I am somewhat suspicious of them.  The main reason is the fact that as they were exploring alternatives to advertising driven revenue for their site, they promised to always have free resources available for those unwilling to pay for their advice.  A cursory review of their site does show a decent amount of general investing information, so take these words with a grain of salt.  (Another reason I am suspicious of them is the fact that they ""spammed"" me with lots of enticements to pay for their advice which seemed just like the type of advice they spoke against.) Anyway, time to put the soapbox away.  As I do that though, I should explain the reason for this soapboxing.  Simply put, investing is a risky endeavor, any way you slice it.  You can never eliminate risk, you can only hope to reduce it to an acceptable level.  What is acceptable is subject to your situation and to the magnitude of your risk aversion.  Ultimately, it is rather subjective and you should not blindly follow someone else's opinion (professional or otherwise).  Point being, use your judgment to evaluate anything you read about investing.   If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  If someone purports to have some strategy for guaranteed (steady) returns, be very suspicious of it.  (Read up on the Bernard Madoff scandal.)  If someone is putting on a heavy sales pitch, be weary.  Be especially suspicious of anyone asking you to pay for their advice before giving you any solid understanding of their strategy.  Sure, many people want to get paid for their advice in some way (in fact, I am getting ""paid"" with reputation on this site).  However, if they take the sketchy approach of a slimy salesmen, they are likely making more money from selling their strategy, than they are from the advice itself.  Most likely, if they were getting outsized returns from their strategy they would keep quiet about it and continue using it themselves.  As stated before, the more people pile onto a strategy, the smaller the returns.  The typical model for selling is to make money from the sale.  When the item being sold is an intangible good, your risk as a buyer increases. You may wonder why I have written at length without much discussion of asset allocation.  One reason is that I am still a relative neophyte and have a mostly high level understanding of the various strategies.  While I feel confident enough in my understanding for my own purposes, I do not necessarily feel confident creating an asset allocation strategy for someone else.  The more important reason is that this is a subjective matter with a lot of variables to consider.  If you want a quick and simple answer, I am afraid you will be disappointed.  The best approach is to educate yourself and make these decisions for yourself.  Hence, my attempt to educate you as best as I can at this point in time. Personally, I suggest you do what I did.  Start reading the Wall Street Journal every day. (An acceptable substitute may be the business section of the New York Times.)  At first you will be overwhelmed with information, but in the long run it will pay off.  Another good piece of advice is to be patient and not rush into investing.   If you are in a hurry to determine how you should invest in a 401(k) or other such investment vehicle due to a desire to take advantage of an employer's matching funds, then I would place my money in an S&P 500 index fund.  I would also explore placing some of that money into broad index funds from other regions of the globe.  The reason for broad index funds is to provide some protection from the normal fluctuations and to reduce the risk of a sudden downturn causing you a lot pain while you determine the best approach for yourself.  In this scenario, think more about capital preservation and hedging against inflation then about ""beating"" the market." "Not at all impossible. What you need is Fundamental Analysis and Relationship with your investment. If you are just buying shares - not sure you can have those. I will provide examples from my personal experience:  My mother has barely high school education. When she saw house and land prices in Bulgaria, she thought it's impossibly cheap. We lived on rent in Israel, our horrible apartment was worth $1M and it was horrible. We could never imagine buying it because we were middle class at best. My mother insisted that we all sell whatever we have and buy land and houses in Bulgaria. One house, for example, went from $20k to EUR150k between 2001 and 2007. But we knew Bulgaria, we knew how to buy, we knew lawyers, we knew builders.  The company I currently work for. When I joined, share prices were around 240 (2006). They are now (2015) at 1500. I didn't buy because I was repaying mortgage (at 5%). I am very sorry I didn't. Everybody knew 240 is not a real share price for our company - an established (+30 years) software company with piles of cash. We were not a hot startup, outsiders didn't invest. Many developers and finance people WHO WORK IN THE COMPANY made a fortune. Again: relationship, knowledge!  I bought a house in the UK in 2012 - everyone knew house prices were about to go up. I was lucky I had a friend who was a surveyor, he told me: ""buy now or lose money"". I bought a little house for 200k, it is now worth 260k. Not double, but pretty good money!  My point is: take your investment personally. Don't just dump money into something. Once you are an insider, your risk will be almost mitigated and you could buy where you see an opportunity and sell when you feel you are near the maximal real worth of your investment. It's not hard to analyse, it's hard to make a commitment." I implemented this in MatLab about 10 years back. You just calculate your conditional variance of the required assets (x_i), use matrix multiplication on the correlation matrix (rho_i_j) from the same asset (this could be a point of research but unless you are using extreme conditions on the VaR it makes little difference) then apply a standard Markiowitz optimisation approach. You can then just use simple Sharpe ratio (marginal return over conditional risk) at every point on the efficient frontier. Then choose the maximum Sharpe ratio point. You can look the Vanguard funds up on their website and view a risk factor provided by Vanguard on a scale of 1 to 5.  Short term bond funds tend to get their lowest risk factor, long term bond funds and blended investments go up to about 3, some stock mutual funds are 4 and some are 5. Note that in 2008 Swenson himself had slightly different target percentages out here that break out the international stocks into emerging versus developed markets. So the average risk of this portfolio is 3.65 out of 5.  My guess would be that a typical twenty-something who expects to retire no earlier than 60 could take more risk, but I don't know your personal goals or circumstances. If you are looking to maximize return for a level of risk, look into Modern Portfolio Theory and the work of economist Harry Markowitz, who did extensive work on the topic of maximizing the return given a set risk tolerance.  More info on my question here.  This question provides some great book resources for learning as well. You can also check out a great comparison and contrast of different portfolio allocations here. Dummy example to explain this. Suppose your portfolio contained just two securities; a thirty year US government bond and a Tesla stock. Both of those position are currently valued at $1mm. The Tesla position however is very volatile with its daily volatility being about 5% (based on the standard deviation of its daily return) whole there bond's daily volatility is 1%. Then the Tesla position is 5/6 of your risk while being only 1/2 of the portfolio.   Now if in month the Tesla stock tanks to half is values then. Then it's risk is half as much as before and so it's total contribution to risk has gone down. Factors to consider: For the taxable investments: "FRM, but IIRC ""Risk"" is more of a reporting role in most banks nowadays.  Meaning you automate some tools that generate reports, and your job is to make sure the results are numerically consistent with industry standard (read: wrong) methodology, and capital rules.  Learn how to calculate VaR 20 different ways, some less useless than others, however mostly fundamentally useless.   Expected shortfall, so basically if there is a VaR break what is the expected loss (also useless!) as you will either by simulating based on some distribution that hopefully fits the data, or historical data which is supposed to repeat itself.   So to do this fun stuff: You're gonna need to know stochastic calculus (not necessarily but you should understand intuitively the formulas you're using), statistics (hypothesis testing), some econometrics/time series analysis, but key thing is programming." "The risk of any investment is measured by its incremental effect on the volatility of your overall personal wealth, including your other investments.  The usual example is that adding a volatile stock to your portfolio may actually reduce the risk of your portfolio if it is negatively correlated with the other stuff in your portfolio. Common measures of risk, such as beta, assume that you have whole-market diversified portfolio. In the case of an investment that may or may not be hedged against currency movements, we can't say whether the hedge adds or removes risk for you without knowing what else is in your portfolio.  If you are an EU citizen with nominally delimited savings or otherwise stand to lose buying power if the Euro depreciates relative to the dollar, than the ""hedged"" ETF is less risky than the ""unhedged"" version.  On the other hand, if your background risk is such that you benefit from that depreciation, then the reverse is true. ""Hedging"" means reducing the risk already present in your portfolio.  In this case it does not refer to reducing the individual volatility of the ETF.  It may or may not do that but individual asset volatility and risk are two very different things." "It's interesting that you use so many different risk measures. Here's what I'd like to know more in detail:  1) About the use of VaR. I've heard (from a friend, may be unreliable) that some investment managers like Neuberger Berman doesn't use VaR for assessing risk and maintaining capital adequacy requirements. Rather, some firms only rely on tracking error, beta, standard deviation, etc. Why do you think is this so? Isn't VaR supposed to be a widely accepted risk measure.  2) The whole ""Expected Shortfall vs. VaR"" debate. I've read some papers comparing Expected Shortfall and VaR. Mainly, they criticize VaR for not being able to consider the 1% probability left where losses can (probably) skyrocket to infinity. If I need to choose between the two, which do you think is better and why?" In your own example of VW, it dropped from its peak price of $253 to $92. If you had invested $10,000 in VW in April 2015, by September of that year it would have gone down to $3,600. If you held on to your investment, you would now be getting back to $6,700 on that original $10,000 investment. Your own example demonstrates that it is possible to lose. I have a friend who put his fortune into a company called WorldCom (one of the examples D Stanley shared). He actually lost all of his retirement. Luckily he made some money back when the startup we both worked for was sold to a much larger company. Unsophisticated investors lose money all the time by investing in individual companies. Your best bet is to start searching this site for answers on how to invest your money so that you can see actual strategies that reduce your investment risk. Here's a starting point: Best way to start investing, for a young person just starting their career? If you want to better illustrate this principle to yourself, try this stock market simulation game. "The raw question is as follows:  ""You will be recommending a purposed portfolio to an investment committee (my class). The committee runs a foundation that has an asset base of $4,000,000. The foundations' dual mandates are to (a) preserve capital and (b) to fund $200,000 worth of scholarships. The foundation has a third objective, which is to grow its asset base over time.""   The rest of the assignment lays out the format and headings for the sections of the presentation.  Thanks, by the way - it's an 8 week accelerated course and I've been out sick for two weeks. I've been trying to teach myself this stuff, including the excel calculations for the past few weeks." Generally speaking.  1. Take the position size / average daily volume.  2. Multiply that number by 10 or whatever 1/whatever % of volume you think you can execute, ( you can at best acct for 10 percent of traded volume on a day).  3. You now have days until liquidation (x)  4. Take the days until liquidation sample the return over  time x. I.e. if days until liquidation is 10, you would sample 10 day returns.  5. Calculate the distribution characteristics of this window (mean, var, skew, kurt) and calculate VaR based on some confidence.  You can now have a liquidity risk expected loss and a VaR.  If position is on margin don't forget to add the interest cost.  Note: Instead of taking 10 day return, you can take the 10 day VWAP and calculate return between Open and 10 day vwap. "If you're asking this question, you probably aren't ready to be buying individual stock shares, and may not be ready to be investing in the market at all.  Short-term in the stock market is GAMBLING, pure and simple, and gambling against professionals at that. You can reduce your risk if you spend the amount of time and effort the pros do on it, but if you aren't ready to accept losses you shouldn't be playing and if you aren't willing to bet it all on a single throw of the dice you should diversify and accept lower potential gain in exchange for lower risk. (Standard advice: Index funds.)  The way an investor, as opposed to a gambler, deals with a stock price dropping -- or surging upward, or not doing anything! -- is to say ""That's interesting. Given where it is NOW, do I expect it to go up or down from here, and do I think I have someplace to put the money that will do better?"" If you believe the stock will gain value from here, holding it may make more sense than taking your losses.  Specific example: the mortgage-crisis market crash of a few years ago. People who sold because stock prices were dropping and they were scared -- or whose finances forced them to sell during the down period -- were hurt badly. Those of us who were invested for the long term and could afford to leave the money in the market -- or who were brave/contrarian enough to see it as an opportunity to buy at a better price -- came out relatively unscathed; all I have ""lost"" was two years of growth. So: You made your bet. Now you have to decide: Do you really want to ""buy high, sell low"" and take the loss as a learning experience, or do you want to wait and see whether you can sell not-so-low. If you don't know enough about the company to make a fairly rational decision on that front, you probably shouldn't have bought its stock." "Yes, there is a very good Return vs Risk graph put out at riskgrades.com.  Look at it soon, because it will be unavailable after 6-30-11.  The RA (return analysis) graph is what I think you are looking for. The first graph shown is an ""Average Return"", which I was told was for a 3 year period.  Three period returns of 3, 6 and 12 months, are also available.  You can specify the ticker symbols of funds or stocks you want a display of.  For funds, the return includes price and distributions (total return), but only price movement for stocks - per site webmaster. I've used the graphs for a few years, since Forbes identified it as a ""Best of the Web"" site.  Initially, I found numerous problems with some of the data and was able to work with the webmaster to correct them.  Lately though, they have NOT been correcting problems that I bring to their attention.  For example, try the symbols MUTHX, EDITX, AWSHX and you'll see that the Risk Grades on the graphs are seriously in error, and compress the graph results and cause overwriting and poor readability. If anyone knows of a similar product, I'd like to know about it.  Thanks,  George" you can check google scholar for some research reports on it.  depends how complex you want to get...  it is obviously a function of the size of the portfolio of each type of asset. do you have a full breakdown of securities held? you can get historical average volumes during different economic periods, categorized by interest rates for example, and then calculate the days required to liquidate the position, applying a discount on each subsequent day.