What is the best way to short the San Francisco real estate market?
The most obvious route is to short the lenders, preferably subprime. Since there are no lenders that operate exclusively in San Francisco, you could look north at Canada. The Canadian real estate market (esp. Vancouver) is just as overheated as the San Francisco market. As a start, famous short seller Marc Cohodes recommends HCG (Home Capital Group) as an opportune short. You could short home builders who do a lot of their business in Northern California.  (Not just San Francisco, Silicon Valley, or even the Bay Area.)  Home prices in Sacramento and the northern San Joaquin Valley are correlated with Bay Area home prices. Many of these builders went broke during the last bust, so you might have trouble finding a publicly traded home builder that is concentrated in just one market.
Without commenting on your view of the TV market:  Let's have a look at the main ways to get negative exposure:  1.Short the stocks  Pros: Relatively Easy Cons: Interest rate, costs of shorting, linear bet    2.Options  a. Write Calls b. Buy puts  Pros: Convexity, leveraged, relatively cheap Cons: Zero Sum bet that expires with time, theta  3.Short Stock, Buy Puts, Write Calls  Short X Units of each stock, Write calls on them , use call premiums to finance puts.  Pros: 3x the power!, high kickout Cons: Unlimited pain "The ultimate purpose of Case-Schiller is to build contracts that you can use to stop worrying about this, for a price. You or your lender might buy cash settled put options based on the index, and hope that if your home falls in value, the your options become ""in the money"" to make up the shortfall. The major problem that I can see with this is finding people to take the other side of that contract. Renters would be the primary candidates, but Americans are on average so overweight in real estate that there really isn't anyone underexposed to real estate who would benefit from diversification, and the tax advantage will give people far cheaper avenues address this. Viewed in this light, your question has a sort of obvious answer: Case-Schiller is historical data, and you need to know about the future historical data. Case-Schiller can't do it alone, but you can use futures markets to predict it. Problem you'll have is that the market itself will optimize this temporal trade: if there's a market drop anticipated, the market will charge you more for market drop insurance." Well, Taking a short position directly in real estate is impossible because it's not a fungible asset, so the only way to do it is to trade in its derivatives - Investment Fund Stock, indexes and commodities correlated to the real estate market (for example, materials related to construction).    It's hard to find those because real estate funds usually don't issue securities and rely on investment made directly with them. Another factor should be that those who actually do have issued securities aren't usually popular enough for dealers and Market Makers to invest in it, who make it possible to take a short position in exchange for some spread. So what you can do is, you can go through all the existing real estate funds and find out if any of them has a broker that let's you short it, in other words which one of them has securities in the financial market you can buy or sell. One other option is looking for real estate/property derivatives, like this particular example. Personally, I would try to computationally find other securities that may in some way correlate with the real estate market, even if they look a bit far fetched to be related like commodities and stock from companies in construction and real estate management, etc. and trade those because these have in most of the cases more liquidity. Hope this answers your question! "Wall Street: Unloading onto the muppets, BRB...  On a serious note, WF has a TBTF put on them. The shorting opportunity likely already came and went. The central banks have issued a global put on equities and real estate for about the last decade, they're unlikely to now say, ""oops, our bad, we'll retract that put starting with WF"" over this. The associated market disruption isn't worth the positive electorate optics. They'll opt to try to surgically fix the scandal; find and fire highest executives feasible, pay a fine, move on." "First, it's much safer to be shorting stocks over $5 than stocks under $5.  I use 3 indicators to show that a stock has topped out and about to drop. Key is the timing cause the initial drop is often the biggest. More close you get in at the top, the higher the risk. Using 1D Charts ONLY:   - MACD Indicator:  I use the histogram, when it reaches a peak height, and the next day it is down 1 ""Step"". If you wait til the MACD lines cross, you are pretty late IMHO.  Need to get in earlier. Timing is everything.   - RSI(15) - Needs to topped out and above 67 meaning, ""Over bought""  - Do not buy when RSI is high above 70. Often stocks go on a Run up when RSI is over 70!   - I use Stoch RSI or CCI to confirm my status on RSI. I like to see that all 3 indicators agree. This gives me a 75% chance that the stock will drop. It may take a day or 2.. so you need patience." "To short:  Of course, you may always buy some index correlated ETF that eliminates the above. They use stock futures on the index, and you simply buy the ""shorting ETF"" in your non-margin account. However, they are surprisingly high cost, and despite the intended correlation, have significant drag. It's a much safer way to short the market (you have great choice in which market ETF) and eliminates the single stock risk." It would involve manual effort, but there is just a handful of exclusions,  buy the fund you want, plug into a tool like Morningstar Instant X Ray,  find out your $10k position includes $567.89 of defense contractor Lockheed Martin,  and sell short $567.89 of Lockheed Martin.  Check you're in sync periodically (the fund or index balance may change); when you sell the fund close your shorts too. The problem with short would be that even if the stock eventually falls, it might raise a lot in the meantime, and unless you have enough collateral, you may not survive till it happens.  To sell shares short, you first need to borrow them (as naked short is currently prohibited in US, as far as I know). Now, to borrow you need some collateral, which is supposed to be worth more that the asset you are borrowing, and usually substantially more, otherwise the risk for the creditor is too high. Suppose you borrowed 10K worth of shares, and gave 15K collateral (numbers are totally imaginary of course). Suppose the shares rose so that total cost is now 14K. At this moment, you will probably be demanded to either raise more collateral or close the position if you can not, thus generating you a 4K loss. Little use it would be to you if next day it fell to 1K - you already lost your money!  As Keynes once said, Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. See also another answer which enumerates other issues with short selling. As noted by @MichaelPryor, options may be a safer way to do it. Or a short ETF like PSQ - lists of those are easy to find online. I definitely get that, my company has been really big on ILS’s lately, so in a meeting the other day I was looking at ways to short Cat Bonds....   The problem is you’d have to offer a big premium to someone that you sell the risk too since the whole industry is having to do that now. And on risky areas like Oklahoma or California for earthquakes I couldn’t imagine the premium you’d have to pay since the risk is up front and present. If you don’t want to pay the premium and choose some risk that isn’t as foreseen you should probably have a good method of evaluating that risk. Which is the point I have ran into in my quest to short ILSs. You could hold a long position in some company XXXX and then short your own shares (assuming your broker will let you do that).  The dividend that would have gone to you would then go to whoever is holding the shares you short sold.  You just don't get a dividend.  If you're going to short in a smart way...  do it on a stock you otherwise believe in, but use it to minimize the pull-backs on the way up. "The best strategy for RSU's, specifically, is to sell them as they vest. Usually, vesting is not all in one day, but rather spread over a period of time, which assures that you won't sell in one extremely unfortunate day when the stock dipped. For regular investments, there are two strategies I personally would follow: Sell when you need. If you need to cash out - cash out. Rebalance - if you need to rebalance your portfolio (i.e.: not cash out, but reallocate investments or move investment from one company to another) - do it periodically on schedule. For example, every 13 months (in the US, where the long term cap. gains tax rates kick in after 1 year of holding) - rebalance. You wouldn't care about specific price drops on that day, because they also affect the new investments. Speculative strategies trying to ""sell high buy low"" usually bring to the opposite results: you end up selling low and buying high. But if you want to try and do that - you'll have to get way more technical than just ""dollar cost averaging"" or similar strategies. Most people don't have neither time nor the knowledge for that, and even those who do rarely can beat the market (and never can, in the long run)." Your strategy of longing company(a) and shorting company(b) is flawed as the prices of company(a) and company(b) can both increase and though you are right , you will lose money due to the shorting strategy. You should not engage in pair trading , which is normally used for arbitrage purposes You should just buy company(a) since you believed its a better company compared to company(b) , its as simple as that Shorts are difficult because you have to find someone to lend the stock to you. In contrast, put options don't require that. They also have some nice properties like you're only out the contract price. The options chain for BSFT will give you an idea of where the market is.  Keep in mind that BSFT only IPO'd last year and announced blowout earnings recently. Make sure the P:E you're looking at is using recent earnings reports! But by closing the short position the broker would still be purchasing shares from the market no? Or at least, someone would be purchasing the shares to close the short position. So, why doesn't the broker just let Client A keep their short position open and buy shares in the market so that Client B can sell them...I know it sounds a bit ridic, but not much more so to me than letting Client A borrow the shares to begin with! "You asked for advice, so I'll offer it.  Trying to time the market is not a great strategy unless you're sitting in front of a Bloomberg terminal all the time. Another person answering your question suggests the use of index funds; he's likely to be right. Look up ""asset allocation.""  What you want to do is decide that you want your portfolio to contain, for example: If one of your stock holdings goes up far enough that you're out of your target asset allocation ranges, sell some of it and buy something  in another asset class,s so you're back in balance.  That way you lock in some profit when things go up, without losing access to potential future profits.  The same applies if something goes down; you buy more of that asset class by selling others. This has worked really well for me for 30+ years."