Considering buying a house in town with few major employers (economic stability)
It seems pretty clear to me that one of two things will happen regarding your local housing market: Personally, I'd hold out until either 1 or 2 happens, and then buy. (Assuming you plan to stay in your town regardless.) If you wait you'll end up with either a stronger investment or a big discount. BLUF:  Continue renting, and work toward financial independence, you can always buy later if your situation changes. Owning the house you live in can be a poor investment.  It is totally dependent on the housing market where you live.  Do the math.  The rumors may have depressed the market to the point where the houses are cheaper to buy.  When you do the estimate, don't forget any homeowners association fees and periodic replacement of the roof, HVAC system and fencing, and money for repairs of plumbing and electrical systems.  Calculate all the replacements as cost over the average lifespan of each system.  And the repairs as an average yearly cost.  Additionally, consider that remodeling will be needful every 20 years or so. There are also intangibles between owning and renting that can tip the scales no matter what the numbers alone say.  Ownership comes with significant opportunity and maintenance costs and is by definition not liquid, but provides stability.  As long as you make your payments, and the government doesn't use imminent domain, you cannot be forced to move.  Renting gives you freedom from paying for maintenance and repairs on the house and the freedom to move with only a lease to break.
"The house that sells for $200,000 might rent for a range of monthly numbers. 3% would be $6000/yr or $500/mo. This is absurdly low, and favors renting, not buying. 9% is $1500/mo in which case buying the house to live in or rent out (as a landlord) is the better choice. At this level ""paying rent"" should be avoided.  I'm simply explaining the author's view, not advocating it.  A quote from the article -  annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too   high annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are   reasonable Edit to respond to Chuck's comment - Mortgage rates for qualified applicants are pretty tight from low to high, the 30 year is about 4.4% and the 15, 3.45%. Of course, a number of factors might mean paying more, but this is the average rate. And it changes over time. But the rent and purchase price in a given area will be different. Very different based on location. See what you'd pay for 2000 sq feet in Manhattan vs a nice town in the Mid-West. One can imagine a 'heat' map, when an area might show an $800 rent on a house selling for $40,000 as a ""4.16"" (The home price divided by annual rent) and another area as a ""20"", where the $200K house might rent for $1667/mo. It's not homogeneous through the US. As I said, I'm not taking a position, just discussing how the author formulated his approach. The author makes some assertions that can be debatable, e.g. that low rates are a bad time to buy because they already pushed the price too high. In my opinion, the US has had the crash, but the rates are still low. Buying is a personal decision, and the own/rent ratios are only one tool to be added to a list of factors in making the decision.  Of course the article, as written, does the math based on the rates at time of publication (4%/30years). And the ratio of income to mortgage one can afford is tied to the current rate. The $60K couple, at 4%, can afford just over a $260K mortgage, but at 6%, $208K, and 8%, $170K. The struggle isn't with the payment, but the downpayment.   The analysis isn't too different for a purchase to invest. If the rent exceeds 1% of the home price, an investor should be able to turn a profit after expenses." Amazon was a terrible addition to town.  They sprouted condo towers and congestion in South Lake Union, then shipped in interns and employees who live in dorms and eat in the company cafeteria during their two waking that they are not at work.  These people don't even take transit.  There is near zero benefit unless you're a landlord downtown and enjoy the increase in rents. I'm confused why you think you need a $450k house. That seems extremely high in today's market except perhaps in certain major urban locations. If you're going to live in suburbia or a smaller town/city, you should be able to find a nice 3br house for well under $300k. Before you rule out buying a house, I'd spend some time researching the real estate listings in your area, foreclosures, properties owned by bankruptcy court, etc. - you might be surprised to find a great home for as low as $150-200k. Of course if you live in a place where what I'm saying is completely off-base, please disregard my answer. For me there are two issues.  So, what to do? You have the basics of a very strong position coming together. A good salary in a good city. I'd be patient and work on consolidating my position for another year to 18 months (including building a rainy day fund) and look to buy then. Over the last ten years you have reaped the benefits of a good financial decision. (Presumably your low mortgage has freed up money for other financial priorities.) There would be no harm in making a clean break by selling as is.  On the other hand, the resale value would probably be rather low considering the condition and the neighborhood. I don't want to assume too much here, but if a potential buyer is interested in the house by virtue of not being able to afford a house in a better neighborhood or better condition, their finances and credit history may make it difficult for them to be approved for a mortgage. That would reduce the potential buyer pool and further reduce the sale price. If you can pull more in rent than the mortgage, you definitely have an opportunity to come ahead. Maybe window A/C units and a repaired chimney are enough if you're renting. Your rental income would pay for that in less than a year even while paying your mortgage for you. (Of course you don't want to become a sleazy slumlord either.) The only real option (long-term) is for businesses to move to other areas and re-distribute the population, which would allow for cheaper areas/homes to become viable options.  This has actually begun to happen really, not many people may be aware yet of what's occurring in Nevada today.  Apple just joined Tesla and Switch in announcing billion dollar investments in Virginia City, Nevada. Google also made huge land purchases. The tech population has begun moving into cheaper areas already and many people will follow, to cheaper homes and lower costs of living.  All people are to blame for this real estate situation, everyone is just looking out for themselves and they are all concentrating in specific areas - naturally costs will rise.  Re-distributing the population geographically (businesses + wealth) will relieve this kind of stress happening in focused areas. "Welcome to Money.SE, and thank you for your service.  In general, buying a house is wise if (a) the overall cost of ownership is less than the ongoing cost to rent in the area, and (b) you plan to stay in that area for some time, usually 7+ years.  The VA loan is a unique opportunity and I'd recommend you make the most of it. In my area, I've seen bank owned properties that had an ""owner occupied"" restriction. 3 family homes that were beautiful, and when the numbers were scrubbed, the owner would see enough rent on two units to pay the mortgage, taxes, and still have money for maintenance. Each situation is unique, but some ""too good to be true"" deals are still out there." When I bought my own place, mortgage lenders worked on 3 x salary basis.  Admittedly that was joint salary - eg you and spouse could sum your salaries.   Relaxing this ratio is one of the reasons we are in the mess we are now. You are shrewd (my view) to realise that buying is better than renting.  But you also should consider the short term likely movement in house prices.  I think this could be down.  If prices continue to fall, buying gets easier the longer you wait. When house prices do hit rock bottom, and you are sure they have, then you can afford to take a gamble.  Lets face it, if prices are moving up, even if you lose your job and cannot pay, you can sell and you have potentially gained the increase in the period when it went up. Also remember that getting the mortgage is the easy bit.  Paying in the longer term is the really hard part of the deal. Some highly pessimistic things worth noting to go alongside all the stability and tax break upside that homes generally provide: Negative equity is no joke and basically the only thing that bankrupts the middle classes consistently en masse. The UK is at the end of a huge housing bull run where rents are extremely cheap relative to buying (often in the 1% range within the M25), Brexit is looming and interest rates could well sky rocket with inflation. Borrowing ~500k to buy a highly illiquid asset you might have to fire sale in case of emergency/job loss etc for 300k in a few years when lots of (relatively) cheap rental housing is available to rent risk free, could be argued to be a highly lopsided and dangerous bet vs the alternatives. Locking in 'preferential' mortgage rates can be a huge trap: low interest rates generally increase asset values. If/when they rise, assets fall in value as the demand shrinks, making you highly exposed to huge losses if you need to sell before it is paid off. In the case of housing this can be exceptionally vicious as the liquidity dramatically dries up during falls, meaning fire sales become much more severe than they are for more liquid assets like stock.  Weirdly and unlike most products, people tend to buy the very best house they can get leverage for, rather than work out what they need/want and finding the best value equivalent. If a bank will lend you £20 a day to buy lunch, and you can just afford to pay it, do you hunt out the very best £20 lunch you can every day, or do you make some solid compromises so you can save money for other things etc? You seem to be hunting very close to the absolute peak amount you can spend on these numbers. Related to above, at that level of mortgage/salary you have very little margin for error if either of you lose jobs etc.  Houses are much more expensive to maintain/trade than most people think. You spend ~2-5% every time you buy and sell, and you can easily spend 2-20k+ a year depending what happens just keeping the thing watertight, paid for, liveable and staying up. You need to factor this in and be pessimistic when you do.  Most people don't factor in these costs to the apparent 'index' rise in house values and what they expect to sell for in x years. In reality no buy and hold investor can ever realise even close to the quoted house price returns as they are basically stocks you have to pay 5% each time you buy or sell and then 1-20% percent a year to own - they have to rise dramatically over time for you to even break even after all the costs.  In general you should buy homes to make memories, not money, and to buy them at prices that don't cause you sleepless nights in case of disasters. It is a decent time to purchase real estate despite dsquid's opinion.  I feel dsquid is falling for the old economic psychology of what ever direction its going it will continuing in that direction, which is a bad mentality for any investing (up or down).     This may not be the bottom, and there is some sign that another dip is coming with in a year or two.  But if you purchase now, and focus on a few key factors you may end up on the upside of the swing.  First and foremost location matters more then value of the property.  When the pent up demand is eventually released (after we get employment moving in the right direction) you will see a land grab.  The first and highest valued places are those with nice neighborhoods and good schools as the young families (economically unburdened) start making homes.    Second pay attention to valuation in so much as your burden.  This means consider taxes and mortgage and terms of mortgage (stay away from variable or balloon rates).  When thing go up the interest rates will lead the way.  In this time of uncertainty you should make sure you can cover your mortgage payment with ease.  Put plenty down (20% being the recommended to avoid mortgage insurance and long term costs) and shoot low on  price.  If you're handy you may even consider buying something that needs minor work (outdated kitchen or the like).   If you shoot lower then your limit, then you'll be comfortable even if things turn sour for you.  Ultimately all this hinges on what you want to do with the property.  Its a wise time to buy homes today where you will be able to rent them out tomorrow.  But the important thing is aim in the middle instead of at your limit (450 is definitely your limit).  Remember banks will always tell you that you're able to afford twice as much as you actually should.  And keep in mind, no matter how new or nice the home, it will need work at some point and that costs.  So you should have that in mind when you consider savings.  Based on your information I wouldnt shoot higher then 250-300k.  I have friends who make your salary in dividends plus two incomes and they are comfortable in their home at its 250 price.  They are able to afford repairs and upgrade regularly and arent threatened by potential tax hikes (though they gripe of course).   The one good piece of advice from dsquid IMHO is that you should be ready for the environment to change.  Higher interests rates will weigh on your comfort as much as CPI and increased taxes will so plan for them to be much higher and you'll be ahead of the game. If there are a lot of houses for sale, can you be sure that in a year or two you can sell yours? How long does the average house in that area stay on the market before it is sold? What percentage of houses never get sold?  If it can't be sold due to the crowded market you will be forced to rent the house. The question for you then is how much rental income can you get? Compare the rental income to your monthly cost of owning, and managing the house.  One benefit to buying a house in a market that is easy to rent a house would be if you are forced to move quickly, then you aren't stuck being 3 months into a 12 month lease.  Keep in mind that markets can change rather dramatically in just a few years. Housing costs were flat for much of the 90's, then rocketed up in the first half of the last decade, and after a big drop, they are one a slow climb back up. But the actual path they are on depends on the part of the US you are in.  The rule of thumb in the past was based on the fact that over a few years the price would rise enough overcome the closing costs on the two transactions. Unfortunately the slow growth in the 90's meant that many had to bring checks to closing because the equity gained wasn't enough to overcome the closing costs due to low down payment loans.   The fast growth period meant that people got into exotic loans to maximize the potential income when prices were going up 10-20% a year.  When prices dropped some found that they bought houses they couldn't afford, but couldn't sell to break even on the transaction. They were stuck and had to default on the mortgage.  In fact I have never seen a time frame when the rule of thumb ever applied. That is a decision you need to make, but some of the pros and cons you could consider to help your decision making include: Pros: If bought at the right time in the property cycle and in a good growth area, it can help you grow your net worth much quicker than having money in the bank earning near zero interest. You would be replacing rent payments with mortgage payments and if your mortage payments are less than your current rent you will have additional money to pay for any expenses on the property and have a similar cashflow as you do now. You will be able to deduct your interest payments on the mortgage against your income if you are in the USA, thus reducing the tax you pay. You will have the security of your own house and not have to worry about moving if the landlord wants you out after your lease expires. Cons: If bought in a bad area and at the top of the property cycle you may never make any capital gains on the property and in fact may lose money on it long term. If the mortgage payments are more than your current rent you may be paying more especially at the start of your mortgage. If you buy a house you are generally stuck in one spot, it will be harder to move to different areas or states as it can cost a lot of money and time to sell and buy elsewhere, if renting you can generally just give notice and find a new place to rent. Property maintenance costs and taxes could be a drain on your finances, especially if the mortgage repayments are more than your current rent. If your mortgage payments and property expenses are way more than your current rent, it may reduce what you could be investing in other areas to help increase your net worth. You want to buy a house for $150,000.  It may be possible to do this with $10,000 and a 3.5% downpayment, but it would be a lot better to have $40,000 and make a 20% downpayment.  That would give you a cushion in case house prices fall, and there are often advantages to a 20% downpayment (lower rate; less mandatory insurance).   You have an income of $35,000 and expenses of $23,000 (if you are careful with the money--what if you aren't?).  You should have savings of either $17,500 or $11,500 in case of emergencies.  Perhaps you simply weren't mentioning that.  Note that you also need at least $137 * 26 = $3562 more to cover mortgage payments, so $15,062 by the expenses standard.  This is in addition to the $40,000 for downpayment and closing costs.   What do you plan to do if there is a problem with the new house, e.g. you need a new roof?  Or smaller expenses like a new furnace or appliance?  A plumbing problem?  Damages from a storm?  What if the tenants' teenage child has a party and trashes the place?  What if your tenants stop paying rent but refuse to move out, trashing the place while being evicted?  Your emergency savings need to be able to cover those situations.   You checked comps (comparable properties).  Great!  But notice that you are looking at a one bathroom property for $150,000 and comparing to $180,000 houses.  Consider that you may not get the $235 for that house, which is cheaper.  Perhaps the rent for that house will only be $195 or less, because one bathroom doesn't really support three bedrooms of people.   While real estate can be part of a portfolio, balance would suggest that much more of your portfolio be in things like stocks and bonds.  What are you doing for retirement?  Are you maxing out any tax-advantaged options that you have available?  It might be better to do that before entering the real estate market.   I am a 23 year old Australian man with a degree in computer science and a steady job from home working as a web developer. I'm a bit unclear on this.  What makes the job steady?  Is it employment with a large company?  Are you self-employed with what has been a steady flow of customers?  Regardless of which it is, consider the possibility of a recession.  The company can lay you off (presumably you are at the bottom of the seniority).  The new customers may be reluctant to start new projects while their cash flow is restrained.  And your tenants may move out.  At the same time.  What will you do then?   A mortgage is an obligation.  You have to pay it regardless.  While currently flush, are you the kind of flush that can weather a major setback?  I would feel a lot better about an investment like this if you had $600,000 in savings and were using this as a complementary investment to broaden your portfolio.  Even if you had $60,000 in savings and would still have substantial savings after the purchase.  This feels more like you are trying to maximize your purchase.  Money burning a hole in your pocket and trying to escape.   It would be a lot safer to stick to securities.  The worst that happens there is that you lose your investment (and it's more likely that the value will be reduced but recover).  With mortgages, you can lose your entire investment and then some.  Yes, the price may recover, but it may do so after the bank forecloses on the mortgage. There's a company called IdealSpot (I haven't used them, just heard of them) that will do that kind of analysis for you and suggest locations. Also, Census data is free and a good resource for demographic data when it comes to neighborhoods. Also, if you have a local SBDC they may have those numbers handy and they also can really walk you through the loan part of the process as well. Seems pretty stupid to buy when switching jobs every 2-4 years yields the greatest gains in salary.  Why would you want to grow roots in an area for 15-30 years when you might be better off changing jobs/locales?   Sure you don't have to keep your house that long but with all the extra costs and risks renting is a fine option for an upwardly mobile citizen.