As a Canadian, what should I invest in if I'm betting that the Canadian real estate will crash?
If you believe you can time the crash, then  We all know what comes after a crash… just as we know what comes after the doom, we just don’t know when….
If the market has not crashed but you know it will, sell short or buy puts.  If the market has crashed, buy equities while they are cheap. If you don't know if or when it will crash hold a diversified portfolio including stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternatives (gold, etc). "I've never invested in penny stocks. My #1 investing rule, buy what you know and use.  People get burned because they hear about the next big thing, go invest! to just end up losing everything because they have no clue in what they're investing in. From what I've found, until you have minimum of $5k to invest, put everything in a single investment. The reason for this, as others have mentioned, is that commissions eat up just about all your profits.  My opinion, don't put it in a bond, returns are garbage right now - however they are ""safe"". Because this is $1000 we're talking about and not your life savings, put it in a equity like a stock to try and maximize your return. I aim for 15% returns on stocks and can generally achieve 10-15% consistently. The problem is when you get greedy and keep thinking it will go above once you're at 10-15%. Sell it. Sell it right away :) If it drops down -15% you have to be willing to accept that risk. The nice thing is that you can wait it out. I try to put a 3 month time frame on things I buy to make money.  Once you start getting a more sizable chunk of money to play around with you should start to diversify. In Canada at least, once you have a trading account with a decent size investment the commissions get reduced to like $10 a trade. With your consistent 10% returns and additional savings you'll start to build up your portfolio. Keep at it and best of luck!" The idea being that if / when the CAD recovers I could see a gain of ~30%. That is the big if, maybe the USD and CAD will return to their previous exchange rates, maybe the CAD will fall further, you just don't know. You should try to keep a diversified pool of investments, that may include some cash in various currencies but unless you think you will need the money in the next few years it should probablly be mostly in other things. If you do think you will need the money in the next few years it should probablly be in a currency that is stable relative to the things you are likely to need it for. Are you considering using it?  Is that the point of the post?  If that's the case, I would say it's always a good idea to fully leverage your assets for investment.  I recommend leveraging everything you can to maximize your profits.  If you own a house, car, or anything else of value, you should use it as collateral.  Then, typically any stock trading for $0.01 is a good investment - they almost never go to $0 and all it takes is a movement of $0.01 to double your money.  Roulette also has similar payouts, but remember to always bet on red, never black.  Good luck - send pictures of your mansion soon! Not a day goes by that someone isn't forecasting a collapse or meteoric rise. Have you read Ravi Batra's The Great Depression of 1990? The '90s went on to return an amazing 18.3%/yr compound growth rate for the decade. (The book sells for just over $3 with free Amazon shipping.) In 1987, Elaine Garzarelli predicted the crash. But went years after to produce unremarkable results. Me? I saw that 1987 was up 5% or so year on year (in hindsight , of course), and by just staying invested, I added deposits throughout the year, and saw that 5% return. What crash? Looking back now, it was a tiny blip. You need to be diversified in a way that one segment of the market falling won't ruin you. If you think the world is ending, you should make peace with your loved ones and your God, no investment advice will be of any value. (Nor will gold for that matter.) Apart from some of the excellent things others say, you could borrow money in AUD and invest that in another currency (that's risky but interesting) if the AUD interest rate is low and the other countries interest rate is higher, you'll eventually win. Also, look at what John Paulson did in 2007, 2008... I wish I'd thought of that when I was in your position (predicting a housing crisis) "First off, I would label this as speculation, not investing.  There are many variables that you don't seem to be considering, and putting down such a small amount opens you to a wide variety of risks.  Not having an ""emergency fund"" for the rental increases that risk greatly.  (I assume that you would not have an emergency fund based upon ""The basic idea is to save up a 20% down payment on a property and take out a mortgage"".) This type of speculation lent a hand in the housing bubble. Is your home paid off?  If not you can reduce your personal risk (by owning your home), and have a pretty safe investment in real estate.  Mission accomplished. My hope for you would be that you are also putting money in the market.  Historically it has performed quite well while always having its share of ""chicken littles""." The catch is that you're doing a form of leveraged investing. In other words, you're gambling on the stock market using money that you've borrowed. While it's not as dangerous as say, getting money from a loan shark to play blackjack in Vegas, there is always the chance that markets can collapse and your investment's value will drop rapidly. The amount of risk really depends on what specific investments you choose and how diversified they are - if you buy only Canadian stocks then you're at risk of losing a lot if something happened to our economy. But if your Canadian equities only amount to 3.6% of your total (which is Canada's share of the world market), and you're holding stocks in many different countries then the diversification will reduce your overall risk.  The reason I mention that is because many people using the Smith Maneuver are only buying Canadian high-yield dividend stocks, so that they can use the dividends to accelerate the Smith Maneuver process (use the dividends to pay down the mortgage, then borrow more and invest it). They prefer Canadian equities because of preferential tax treatment of the dividend income (in non-registered accounts). But if something happened to those Canadian companies, they stand to lose much of the investment value and suddenly they have the extra debt (the amount borrowed from a HELOC, or from a re-advanceable mortgage) without enough value in the investments to offset it. This could mean that they will not be able to pay off the mortgage by the time they retire! "For US punters, the Centre for Economic and Policy Research has a Housing Cost Calculator you can play with.  The BBC provides this one for the UK. For everyone else, there are a few rules of thumb (use with discretion and only as a ball-park guide): Your example of a Gross Rental Yield of 5% would have to be weighed up against local investment returns. Read Wikipedia's comprehensive ""Real-estate bubble"" article. Update: spotted that Fennec included this link at the NY Times which contains a Buy or Rent Calculator." Risk is the problem, as others have pointed out. Your fixed mortgage interest rate is for a set period of time only. Let's say your 3% might be good for five years, because that's typical of fixed-rate mortages in Canada. So, what happens in five years if your investment has dropped 50% due to a prolonged bear market, and interest rates have since moved up from 3% to 8%? Your investment would be underwater, and you wouldn't have enough to pay off the loan and exit the failed strategy. Rather, you might just be stuck with renewing the mortage at a rate that makes the strategy far less attractive, being more likely to lose money in the long run than to earn any. Leverage, or borrowing to invest, amplifies your risk considerably. If you invest your own money in the market, you might lose what you started with, but if you borrow to invest, you might lose much more than you started with. There's also one very specific issue with the example investment you've proposed: You would be borrowing Canadian dollars but investing in an index fund of U.S.-based companies that trade in U.S. dollars. Even if the index has positive returns in U.S. dollar terms, you might end up losing money if the Canadian dollar strengthens vs. the U.S. dollar. It has happened before, multiple times. So, while this strategy has worked wonderfully in the past, it has also failed disastrously in the past. Unless you have a crystal ball, you need to be aware of the various risks and weigh them vs. the potential rewards. There is no free lunch. "Pay off the credit cards.  From now on, pay off the credit cards monthly.  Under no circumstances should you borrow money.  You have net worth but no external income.  Borrowing is useless to you.   $200,000 in two bank accounts, because if one bank collapses, you want to have a spare while you wait for the government to pay off the guarantee.  Keep $50,000 in checking and another $50k in savings.  The remainder put into CDs.  Don't expect interest income beyond inflation.  Real interest rates (after inflation) are often slightly negative.   People ask why you might keep money in the bank rather than stocks/bonds.  The problem is that stocks/bonds don't always maintain their value, much less go up.  The bank money won't gain, but it won't suddenly lose half its value either.  It can easily take five years after a stock market crash for the market to recover.  You don't want to be withdrawing from losses.   Some people have suggested more bonds and fewer stocks.  But putting some of the money in the bank is better than bonds.  Bonds sometimes lose money, like stocks.  Instead, park some of the money in the bank and pick a more aggressive stock/bond mixture.  That way you're never desperate for money, and you can survive market dips.  And the stock/bond part of the investment will return more at 70/30 than 60/40.   $700,000 in stock mutual funds.  $300,000 in bond mutual funds.  Look for broad indexes rather than high returns.  You need this to grow by the inflation rate just to keep even.  That's $20,000 to $30,000 a year.  Keep the balance between 70/30 and 75/25.  You can move half the excess beyond inflation to your bank accounts.  That's the money you have to spend each year.  Don't withdraw money if you aren't keeping up with inflation.   Don't try to time the market.  Much better informed people with better resources will be trying to do that and failing.  Play the odds instead.  Keep to a consistent strategy and let the market come back to you.  If you chase it, you are likely to lose money.   If you don't spend money this year, you can save it for next year.  Anything beyond $200,000 in the bank accounts is available for spending.  In an emergency you may have to draw down the $200,000.  Be careful.  It's not as big a cushion as it seems, because you don't have an external income to replace it.   I live in southern California but would like to move overseas after establishing stable investments.   I am not the type of person that would invest in McDonald's, but would consider other less evil franchises (maybe?).   These are contradictory goals, as stated.  A franchise (meaning a local business of a national brand) is not a ""stable investment"".  A franchise is something that you actively manage.  At minimum, you have to hire someone to run the franchise.  And as a general rule, they aren't as turnkey as they promise.   How do you pick a good manager?  How will you tell if they know how the business works?  Particularly if you don't know.  How will you tell that they are honest and won't just embezzle your money?  Or more honestly, give you too much of the business revenues such that the business is not sustainable?  Or spend so much on the business that you can't recover it as revenue?   Some have suggested that you meant brand or stock rather than franchise.  If so, you can ignore the last few paragraphs.  I would be careful about making moral judgments about companies.  McDonald's pays its workers too little.  Google invades privacy.  Exxon is bad for the environment.  Chase collects fees from people desperate for money.  Tesla relies on government subsidies.  Every successful company has some way in which it can be considered ""evil"".  And unsuccessful companies are evil in that they go out of business, leaving workers, customers, and investors (i.e. you!) in the lurch.   Regardless, you should invest in broad index funds rather than individual stocks.  If college is out of the question, then so should be stock investing.  It's at least as much work and needs to be maintained.   In terms of living overseas, dip your toe in first.  Rent a small place for a few months.  Find out how much it costs to live there.  Remember to leave money for bigger expenses.  You should be able to live on $20,000 or $25,000 a year now.  Then you can plan on spending $35,000 a year to do it for real (including odd expenses that don't happen every month).  Make sure that you have health insurance arranged.   Eventually you may buy a place.  If you can find one that you can afford for something like $100,000.  Note that $100,000 would be low in California but sufficient even in many places in the US.  Think rural, like the South or Midwest.  And of course that would be more money in many countries in South America, Africa, or southern Asia.  Even southern and eastern Europe might be possible.  You might even pay a bit more and rent part of the property.  In the US, this would be a duplex or a bed and breakfast.  They may use different terms elsewhere.   Given your health, do you need a maid/cook?  That would lean towards something like a bed and breakfast, where the same person can clean for both you and the guests.  Same with cooking, although that might be a second person (or more).  Hire a bookkeeper/accountant first, as you'll want help evaluating potential purchases.  Keep the business small enough that you can actively monitor it.   Part of the problem here is that a million dollars sounds like a lot of money but isn't.  You aren't rich.  This is about bare minimum for surviving with a middle class lifestyle in the United States and other first world countries.  You can't live like a tourist.   It's true that many places overseas are cheaper.  But many aren't (including much of Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, etc.).  And the ones that aren't may surprise you.  And you also may find that some of the things that you personally want or need to buy are expensive elsewhere.  Dabble first and commit slowly; be sure first.  Include rarer things like travel in your expenses.   Long term, there will be currency rate worries overseas.  If you move permanently, you should certainly move your bank accounts there relatively soon (perhaps keep part of one in the US for emergencies that may bring you back).  And move your investments as well.  Your return may actually improve, although some of that is likely to be eaten up by inflation.  A 10% return in a country with 12% inflation is a negative real return.   Try to balance your investments by where your money gets spent.  If you are eating imported food, put some of the investment in the place from which you are importing.  That way, if exchange rates push your food costs up, they will likely increase your investments at the same time.  If you are buying stuff online from US vendors and having it shipped to you, keep some of your investments in the US for the same reason.  Make currency fluctuations work with you rather than against you.   I don't know what your circumstances are in terms of health.  If you can work, you probably should.  Given twenty years, your million could grow to enough to live off securely.  As is, you would be in trouble with another stock market crash.  You'd have to live off the bank account money while you waited for your stocks and bonds to recover." You seem to underestimate the risk of this deal for the inverstors. A person purchasing a residence is happy to pay $70K instead of $150K now, and the only risk they take is that the construction company fails to build the condo. Whatever happens on the estate market in two years, they still saved the price difference between the price of complete apartments and to-be-build apartments (which by the way may be less than $150K-$70K, since that $150K is the price on a hot market in two years). However, an investor aiming to earn money counts on that the property will actually cost $150K in two years, so he's additionally taking the risk that the estate market may drop. Should that happen, their return on investment will be considerably lower, and it's entirely possible they will make a loss instead of a profit. At this point, this becomes yet another high risk investment option, like financing a startup. Real estate is not an investment but pure speculation. Rental income may make it look like an investment but if you ask some experienced investor you would be told to stay away from real estate unless it is for your own use. If you believe otherwise then please read on : Another strong reason not to buy real estate right now is the low interest rates. You should be selling real estate when the interest rates are so low not buying it. You buy real estate when the interest rate cycle peaks like you would see in Russia in months to come with 17% central bank rate right now and if it goes up a little more that is when it is time to start looking for a property in Russia. This thread sums it up nicely. In the 2008 housing crash, cash was king.  Cash can make your mortgage payment, buy groceries, utilities, etc. Great deals on bank owned properties were available for those with cash.  Getting a mortgage in 2008-2011 was tough. If you are worried about stock market crashing, then diversification is key.  Don't have all your investments in one mutual fund or sector.   Gold and precious metals have a place in one's portfolio, say 5-10 percent as an insurance policy.  The days of using a Gold Double Eagle to pay the property taxes are largely gone, although Utah does allow it. The biggest lesson I took from the crash is you cant have too much cash saved.  Build up the rainy day fund. It sounds like you want to lock-up your money in something relatively safe, and relatively hard to touch. You may want to consider a GIC (TD has one I found in a quick search) - from what I see it's the closest thing to a US CD. You won't get much back, but if you pick a 5-year term, you can't spend it* easily. Other options might be to buy an ETF, or get into REITs - but that will depend on your risk comfort. Also - to add from the comment Rick left - be sure to pay off any high-interest debts: especially if they're on a credit card, it will help you later on. * easily .. you can withdraw, but there're generally penalties