Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained since 1947 by the members of the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", the clock is a metaphor for threats to humanity from unchecked scientific and technical advances. The clock represents the hypothetical global catastrophe as midnight and the "Bulletin"s opinion on how close the world is to a global catastrophe as a number of minutes or seconds to midnight, assessed in January of each year. The main factors influencing the clock are nuclear risk and climate change. The "Bulletin"s Science and Security Board monitors new developments in the life sciences and technology that could inflict irrevocable harm to humanity.
The clock's original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has been set backward and forward 24 times since, the largest-ever number of minutes to midnight being 17 in 1991, and the smallest 100 seconds in 2020 and 2021.
The clock was set at two minutes to midnight in January 2018, and left unchanged in 2019. In January 2020, it was moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight. In January 2021, the clock's setting was left unchanged.
History.
The Doomsday Clock's origin can be traced to the international group of researchers called the Chicago Atomic Scientists, who had participated in the Manhattan Project. After the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they began publishing a mimeographed newsletter and then the magazine, "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", which, since its inception, has depicted the Clock on every cover. The Clock was first represented in 1947, when the "Bulletin" co-founder Hyman Goldsmith asked artist Martyl Langsdorf (wife of Manhattan Project research associate and Szilárd petition signatory Alexander Langsdorf, Jr.) to design a cover for the magazine's June 1947 issue. As Eugene Rabinowitch, another co-founder of the "Bulletin", explained later, Langsdorf chose a clock to reflect the urgency of the problem: like a countdown, the Clock suggests that destruction will naturally occur unless someone takes action to stop it.
In January 2007, designer Michael Bierut, who was on the "Bulletin"s Governing Board, redesigned the Doomsday Clock to give it a more modern feel. In 2009, the "Bulletin" ceased its print edition and became one of the first print publications in the U.S. to become entirely digital; the Clock is now found as part of the logo on the "Bulletin"'s website. Information about the Doomsday Clock Symposium, a timeline of the Clock's settings, and multimedia shows about the Clock's history and culture can also be found on the "Bulletin"s website.
The 5th Doomsday Clock Symposium was held on November 14, 2013, in Washington, D.C.; it was a day-long event that was open to the public and featured panelists discussing various issues on the topic "Communicating Catastrophe". There was also an evening event at the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden in conjunction with the Hirshhorn's current exhibit, "Damage Control: Art and Destruction Since 1950". The panel discussions, held at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, were streamed live from the "Bulletin"s website and can still be viewed there. Reflecting international events dangerous to humankind, the Clock has been adjusted 22 times since its inception in 1947, when it was set to "seven minutes to midnight".
Basis for settings.
"Midnight" has a deeper meaning to it besides the constant threat of war. There are various things taken into consideration when the scientists from "The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" decide what Midnight and "global catastrophe" really mean in a particular year. They might include "politics, energy, weapons, diplomacy, and climate science"; potential sources of threat include nuclear threats, climate change, bioterrorism, and artificial intelligence. Members of the board judge Midnight by discussing how close they think humanity is to the end of civilization. In 1947, at the beginning of the Cold War, the Clock was started at seven minutes to midnight.
The Clock's setting is decided without a specified starting time. The Clock is not set and reset in real time as events occur; rather than respond to each and every crisis as it happens, the Science and Security Board meets twice annually to discuss global events in a deliberative manner. The closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before the Clock could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.
Fluctuations and threats.
Before January 2020, the two tied-for-lowest points for the Doomsday Clock were in 1953, when the Clock was set to two minutes until midnight after the U.S. and the Soviet Union began testing hydrogen bombs, and in 2018, following the failure of world leaders to address tensions relating to nuclear weapons and climate change issues. In other years, the Clock's time has fluctuated from 17 minutes in 1991 to minutes in 2017. Discussing the change to minutes in 2017, the first use of a fraction in the Clock's history, Krauss, one of the scientists from the "Bulletin", warned that political leaders must make decisions based on facts, and those facts "must be taken into account if the future of humanity is to be preserved." In an announcement from the "Bulletin" about the status of the Clock, they went as far to call for action from "wise" public officials and "wise" citizens to make an attempt to steer human life away from catastrophe while humans still can.
On January 24, 2018, scientists moved the clock to two minutes to midnight, based on threats greatest in the nuclear realm. The scientists said, of recent moves by North Korea under Kim Jong-Un and the administration of Donald Trump in the US: "Hyperbolic rhetoric and provocative actions by both sides have increased the possibility of nuclear war by accident or miscalculation".
The clock was left unchanged in 2019 due to the twin threats of nuclear weapons and climate change, and the problem of those threats being "exacerbated this past year by the increased use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world, amplifying risk from these and other threats and putting the future of civilization in extraordinary danger."
On January 23, 2020, the Clock was moved further, to 100 seconds (1 minute 40 seconds) before midnight, meaning that the Clock's status today is the closest to midnight since the Clock's start in 1947. The "Bulletin"s executive chairman, Jerry Brown, said "the dangerous rivalry and hostility among the superpowers increases the likelihood of nuclear blunder... Climate change just compounds the crisis".
Reception.
The Doomsday Clock has become a universally recognized metaphor. According to the "Bulletin", the Clock attracts more daily visitors to the "Bulletin"'s site than any other feature.
Anders Sandberg of the Future of Humanity Institute has stated that the "grab bag of threats" currently mixed together by the Clock can induce paralysis. People may be more likely to succeed at smaller, incremental challenges; for example, taking steps to prevent the accidental detonation of nuclear weapons was a small but significant step in avoiding nuclear war. Alex Barasch in "Slate" argues that "Putting humanity on a permanent, blanket high-alert isn't helpful when it comes to policy or science", and criticizes the "Bulletin" for neither explaining nor attempting to quantify their methodology.
Cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker harshly criticized the Doomsday Clock as a political stunt, pointing to the words of its founder that its purpose was "to preserve civilization by scaring men
into rationality." He stated that it is inconsistent and not based on any objective indicators of security, using as an example its being farther from midnight in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis than in the "far calmer 2007". He argued it was another example of humanity's tendency toward historical pessimism, and compared it to other predictions of self-destruction that went unfulfilled.
Conservative media often clash against the "Bulletin". Keith Payne writes in the "National Review" that the Clock overestimates the effects of "developments in the areas of nuclear testing and formal arms control". Tristin Hopper in the "National Post" acknowledges that "there are plenty of things to worry about regarding climate change", but states that climate change isn't in the same league as total nuclear destruction. In addition, some critics accuse the "Bulletin" of pushing a political agenda.