2009 Iranian presidential election

The 2009 Iranian presidential election was held on 12 June 2009, with incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad running against three challengers. The next morning the Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's news agency, announced that with two-thirds of the votes counted, Ahmadinejad had won the election with 62% of the votes cast, and that Mir-Hossein Mousavi had received 34% of the votes cast. There were large irregularities in the results and people were surprised by them, which resulted in protests of millions of Iranians, across every Iranian city and around the world and the emergence of the opposition Iranian Green Movement.
Many Iranian figures directly supported the protests and declared the votes were fraudulent. Among them, many film directors like Jafar Panahi (who was consequently banned from making movies for 20 years and condemned to six years imprisonment), Mohammad Rasoulof (also condemned to 6 years imprisonment), actors and actresses like Pegah Ahangarani (who was consequently imprisoned), Ramin Parchami (who was consequently condemned to one year imprisonment), sportsmen like the whole Iran national football team who wore green wristbands in their game against South Korea to support the movement, scholars like Mostafa Tajzadeh, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Akbar Ganji, Mohsen Sazegara, many religious figures like Mohsen Kadivar, Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Mohammad Dastgheib Shirazi, traditional singers like Mohammad Reza Shajarian, defected Basij and Iranian Revolutionary Guards like Amir Farshad Ebrahimi and those who confessed with covered faces.
The European Union and several western countries expressed concern over alleged irregularities during the vote, and many analysts and journalists from the United States and United Kingdom news media voiced doubts about the authenticity of the results.
Mousavi issued a statement accusing the Interior Ministry, which was responsible for conducting the election, of widespread election fraud and urged his supporters to engage in peaceful protests. He also lodged an official appeal with the Guardian Council for new and more transparent elections. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad, labeling his victory as a "divine assessment". Khamenei then announced there would be an investigation into vote-rigging claims.
On 16 June, the Guardian Council announced it would recount 10% of the votes and concluded there were no irregularities at all, dismissing all election complaints. However, Mousavi stated that a recount would not be sufficient since he claimed 14 million unused ballots were missing, giving the Interior Ministry an opportunity to manipulate the results. On 19 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced the pro-Mousavi demonstrations as illegal, and protests the next day were met with stiff resistance from government forces, with many reported deaths.
The Green Movement of Iran continued its peaceful protests until 14 February 2011 and radicalized itself demanding a total regime change and departure of Khamenei from power.
Background.
Ahmadinejad became President of Iran after the 2005 election. The losing candidates at that time claimed irregularities at the polls, but the charges were not investigated. A formal protest to the Guardian Council was made and the group dismissed it without comment. His victory had surprised most observers of the campaign. At that time the reformist camp had mostly either boycotted elections entirely or held back out of disillusionment with past lack of progress. The voting for the 2009 election was scheduled for 12 June 2009 and ended up being extended until midnight that day because the turnout was unexpectedly high. Voting ended up proceeding four hours longer than originally scheduled.
The President is elected by direct vote, however candidates for the presidency must be approved by the 12-member Council of Guardians. Candidates need to win a majority (more than half) to become President. Iran has a two-round system: if none of the candidates wins the majority in the first round, the top two candidates will go to a run-off. The first round was held on 12 June 2009; the run-off would have been held one week later, on 19 June 2009. All Iranian citizens of age 18 and up are eligible to vote. Both the Iranian Center for Statistics and the Iranian Ministry of the Interior stated that there were around 46.2 million eligible voters.
Candidates.
On 20 May 2009, the Guardian Council officially announced a list of approved candidates, while rejecting a number of registered nominees. Only four candidates were approved by the Guardian Council, out of the 476 men and women who had applied to seek the presidency of Iran in the 2009 election.
Declined candidates.
The following people were said to be possible candidates in the election, but did not register within the five days allowed for registration.
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President and chairman of the Assembly of Experts, would have been over 75 years old on the election day and therefore ineligible to run by election law.
Campaign.
Background.
The incumbent was Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian reform movement attempted to unite behind a single candidate; former President Mohammad Khatami was the leading opponent to Ahmadinejad in some opinion polls, until he withdrew and endorsed former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Former Speaker of the Majlis Mehdi Karroubi, another Reformist, was also running; as was the former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Mohsen Rezaee, a conservative with a reputation for political pragmatism. The election marked a return to public spotlight for Mousavi, who had not received much attention since he served as Prime Minister in the 1980s. Reformist opinions galvanized around him as the election grew nearer. He became the symbol for a groundswell of youthful democratic sentiment, despite his personal background and political views.
"The Telegraph" described the campaign as "unusually open by Iranian standards, but also highly acrimonious". It was marked by heated rhetoric between the incumbent and his challengers. Mousavi and two other candidates said Ahmadinejad lied about the state of the economy, which was suffering from high inflation and a fall in oil revenues from last year's record levels. Ahmadinejad responded by comparing his opponents to Adolf Hitler, adding they could be jailed for their comments: "No one has the right to insult the president, and they did it. And this is a crime. The person who insulted the president should be punished, and the punishment is jail ... Such insults and accusations against the government are a return to Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations ... until everyone believes those lies".
Debates about the economy played the biggest role in the campaign, with the global economic recession looming in peoples' minds. About one in five Iranians lived under the poverty line, inflation was about 25 percent and unemployment over 12.5 percent (some unofficial estimates reported 30%). Mousavi advocated further privatisation of the economy towards a free market, with a tight monetary policy in comparison to Ahmadinejad's populist fiscal policy. Ahmadinejad's measures to fight poverty were a central issue of his campaign. Mousavi drew his electoral base from the middle and upper classes, while Ahmadinejad drew support from the urban poor and rural residents. Civil servants, police officers, pensioners and others dependent on the government, also contributed to Ahmadinejad's base. He turned the financial support of the business class opposing him into a theme of attack. BBC News described his campaign as "one that foresees the death of capitalism".
Mousavi criticized Ahmadinejad for diplomatically isolating Iran by denying the Holocaust and making anti western speeches. He opposed the government's current strict enforcement of Islamic dress and social behavior, calling for an end to the regime's 'Vice Police'. He advocated letting private individuals and groups own Iranian media. Both candidates strongly supported further development of the Iranian nuclear program. However, Mousavi advocated a less combative and tense tone with other nations about it. He floated the idea of an international consortium overseeing uranium enrichment in Iran. The BBC stated about Mousavi: "[i]n foreign affairs, he seems to be offering little change on major issues". Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, Mohamad Bazzi, stated: "if Mousavi wins, it could create a new opening for dialogue with the United States. Ahmadinejad's continued presence would be a major obstacle". Robert Fisk also remarked a Mousavi victory would mean closer ties with the U.S.
The campaign was the most expensive in the Islamic Republic's history, with the two main candidates spending over tens of millions of dollars in a bid to convince voters. Funds were spent on, among other things, mass distribution of digital propaganda such as CDs and DVDs. Another interesting phenomenon taking place during the campaign was a dramatic rise in text messages sent to Iranian cell phone subscribers – between 60 and 110 million. Mousavi adopted the traditional islamic color of green as his campaign theme. Young male supporters wore green ribbons tied around their wrists and young female supporters wore green headscarves. Activists used the term 'change' as their primary slogan, chanting "green change for Iran", "together for change" and "vote for change".
Debates.
From 2 to 8 June 2009 Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported nightly debates on TV channel IRIB 3 between two candidates at a time, with each candidate facing the others once. This was the first time Iran had held televised debates between candidates. Each debate lasted for around one and a half hours. During the debate on 3 June between President Ahmadinejad and reformist rival, former Prime Minister Mousavi, Ahmadinejad made accusations regarding former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Iranian Revolution. Rafsanjani responded to these charges on 9 June in an open letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei requesting that he stepped in to rebuke Ahmadinejad for his comments at the debate.
Polling.
The opinion polls within Iran were considered unreliable. A number of polls conducted between relatively small voting groups, like university students and workers, were reported as election propaganda. More general polls reported in the media did not state the polling organization nor the basic facts about the methodology. The results showed a high variance and depend heavily on who was reporting the poll. In 2002, the polling organization Ayandeh and another polling organization was closed and its directors were arrested. The director of Ayandeh, Abbas Abdi, spent several years in prison.
Mousavi's and Karroubi's campaign posters in Tehran claimed that a high turnout would reduce Ahmadinejad's chance of winning the election. Karroubi's campaign manager, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, claimed that the chance of Ahmadinejad losing the election would be over 65 percent if over 32 million people voted, but less than 35 percent if less than 27 million people voted.
An independent poll, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism, found that Ahmadinejad was leading by a margin of 2 to 1. 34% said they would vote for Ahmadinejad, 14% favored Mousavi, 2% favored Karroubi, 1% favored Rezaee and 27% were undecided. The poll was taken from 11 to 20 May. The poll was carried out by a company whose work for ABC News and the BBC in the Middle East has received an Emmy award. Polling itself was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Writing in "The Washington Post", pollsters Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty have used this to suggest that Ahmadinejad's apparent victory might reflect the will of the Iranian people. The poll was quoted by Reuters, "Khaleej Times" and Jim Muir of BBC News. However, the "Irish Times", while quoting the poll, also pointed out that it was taken three weeks before the election, and electoral campaigning in Iran is only allowed for a period of 30 days prior to the election date, which means this poll was conducted only one week into the campaigning. Another critic of the poll, Mansoor Moaddel, pointed out that of "1,731 people contacted [by the poll], well over half either refused to participate (42.2%) or did not indicate a preferred candidate (15.6%)." For comparison, the average response rate in US for such telephonic surveys does not exceed 30%, while the minimum response rate for an opinion poll to be considered scientific by many leading academic journals is 50%.
A post-election national poll was conducted in late August and early September 2009 by the American polling agency, World Public Opinion, which is affiliated to the University of Maryland. Of the initial 46% respondents of the poll, 27% did not state their chosen candidate, 55% said that they had voted for Ahmadinejad. Both Mr Karroubi and Mr Rezai received minimal support. 87% of respondents replied that they had voted compared to 85% according to the official figures, which is within the margin of error provided. Also, the survey found that 62% of Iranians had "strong confidence" in the election result whilst 64% expressed a similar feeling towards the incumbent president. This finding almost exactly matches up with the proportion of the vote that Ahmadinejad received.
Irregularities.
Pre-election violence.
On 1 June, a campaign office of Ahmadinejad's primary opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, was torched. The office was located in the city of Qom. No group claimed responsibility for the attack. At the same time, it was reported that an assassination had been attempted against former president Mohammad Khatami by means of a bomb placed on an aircraft he was to board.
Blocking of communications.
Mobile phone communications were interrupted in Tehran on election day and the BBC has stated that "heavy electronic jamming" was being used to halt their broadcasts. On 23 May 2009, the Iranian government temporarily blocked access to Facebook across the country. "Gulf News" reported that this move was a response to the use of Facebook by candidates running against Ahmadinejad. "PC World" reported that Mousavi's Facebook page had more than 6,600 supporters. Access was restored by 26 May 2009.
Alleged vote rigging or coup attempt.
"The New York Times" quoted an unnamed employee of the Interior Ministry claiming that "the government had been preparing its fraud for weeks, purging anyone of doubtful loyalty and importing pliable staff members from around the country." "The New Yorker" stated that "dissident employees of the Interior Ministry... have reportedly issued an open letter" saying that the election was stolen. "The Guardian" has also mentioned "reports of a leaked interior ministry figures allegedly suggesting Mousavi had won", although the article questioned the credibility of the report.
"The Guardian" reported on 17 June 2009 that an Iranian news website identified at least 30 polling sites with turnout over 100% and 200 sites with turnout over 95%. On 21 June 2009, a spokesman from the Guardian Council (an organ of the Iranian government) stated the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters in no more than 50 cities. The Council argued this was a normal phenomenon, which had also taken place in previous elections, as people are not obliged to vote where they had been born/registered.
On 18 June, Iranian film makers Marjane Satrapi and Mohsen Makhmalbaf appeared before Green Party members in the European Parliament to present a document allegedly received from a member of the Iranian electoral commission claiming that Mir-Hossein Mousavi had actually won the election, and that the conservative incumbent Mahmoud Ahmedinejad had received only 12% of the vote.
Result.
Analysis.
According to Reza Esfandiari and Yousef Bozorgmehr, the election data is consistent with a natural outcome in a statistical sense, allowing for some possible fraud at the local level.
Mohtashami, former interior minister of Iran, who was in the election monitoring committee of Mousavi's campaign claimed that according to official censuses, the number of counted votes in 70 municipalities were more than the number of eligible voters who lived in those regions. In all those cities Ahmadinejad won by 80% to 90% However, "excess votes" have been common in all Iranian elections partly due to the way eligible voters are counted. For example, the Interior Ministry based their calculation of eligible voters on birth certificate registrations. Iranians do not register to vote and hundreds of thousands regularly vote outside their own regions. Shemiran, which had the highest excess voter turnout (13 times the number of eligible voters), overwhelmingly voted for Mousavi.
On 17 June, Tabnak, the news agency close to defeated candidate Mohsen Rezaei whose official vote tally was 678,240 votes in the election, stated that "Mohsen Rezaei, until yesterday afternoon, found evidence that proves at least 900,000 Iranians, who had sent in their national ID card numbers, voted for [him]." However, there is no way of independently verifying whether those who disclosed their ID numbers had actually voted for Rezaei.
BBC Iranian affairs analyst Sadeq Saba found abnormalities in the way results were announced. Instead of results by province, the "results came in blocks of millions of votes," with very little difference between the blocks in the percentages going to each candidate. This suggested that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did equally well in rural and urban areas, while his three opponents did equally badly in their home regions and provinces as in the rest of the country. This contradicted "all precedent in Iranian politics", where Ahmadinejad had been very popular in rural areas and unpopular in the big cities, where ethnic minorities had favored anti-establishment candidates, and where candidates had tended to carry their home provinces.
Another anomaly, according to British-based researcher Ali Alizadeh, is that a large turnout did not favor the opposition, since in elections, both in Iran and abroad, "those who usually don’t vote, i.e. the silent majority, only come out when they want to change the status quo."
According to modern Middle Eastern and South Asian historian Juan Cole, there were several anomalies in the election results. Official reports gave Ahmadinejad 50% of the vote in Tabriz despite the fact that this was the capital of Mousavi's home province, Eastern Azerbaijan, where Mousavi's rallies were well attended and which has traditionally given good turnouts for even "minor presidential candidates" who came from the province. Ahmadinejad also won Tehran province by over 50%, but crucially lost to Mousavi in the actual city of Tehran and was also soundly beaten in the affluent suburb of Shemiran to the north of the capital.
Statistical analyses of the official election results were published in "Journal of Applied Statistics", an online note, in blogs and in "The Washington Post".
Aftermath.
Protests.
Clashes broke out between police and groups protesting the election results from early morning on Saturday onward. Initially, the protests were largely peaceful. However, as time passed, they became increasingly violent. Some protesters began to get violent after the results of the election were announced. Angry crowds in Tehran broke into shops, tore down signs, and smashed windows. Civil unrest took place as protesters set fire to tyres outside the Interior Ministry building and others formed a human chain of around 300 people to close off a major Tehran street.
The demonstrations grew bigger and more heated than the 1999 student protests. Al Jazeera English described 13 June situation as the "biggest unrest since the 1979 revolution." It also reported that protests seemed spontaneous without any formal organization. Two hundred people protested outside Iran's embassy in London on 13 June. Ynet stated that "tens of thousands" protested on 13 June. Demonstrators chanted phrases such as "Down with the dictator", "Death to the dictator", and "Give us our votes back". Mousavi urged for calm and asked that his supporters refrain from acts of violence.
Ynet reported on 14 June that two people had died in the rioting so far. That day, protests had been organized in front of the Iranian embassies in Turkey, Dubai, Paris, Berlin, London, Rome, Sydney, Vienna and The Hague. In response to the reformist protests, tens of thousands of people rallied in Tehran on 14 June to support the victory of Ahmadinejad.
On 15 June, Mousavi rallied, with anywhere from hundreds of thousands to three million, of his supporters in Tehran, despite being warned by state officials that any such rally would be illegal. The demonstration was Mousavi's first public appearance after the election. Protests focused around Azadi Tower, around which lines of people stretched for more than nine kilometers met. Gunshots were reported to have been fired at the rally, where Mousavi had spoken to his supporters saying, "The vote of the people is more important than Mousavi or any other person." All three opposition candidates appeared.
Competing rallies for Mousavi and for Ahmadinejad took place on 16 June. The pro-Ahmadinejad protesters, chanting the phrases "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!", outnumbered their opponents, but they did not match the numbers of opponents who had protested the day before. Reports from the state media and elsewhere stated on 16 June that seven people have died in all of the protests so far. However, "The Times" quoted a Rasoul Akram Hospital nurse that day who asserted that 28 people have suffered from "bullet wounds" and eight have died so far. Over half a million reformist Iranians marched silently from Haft-e-Tir Square to Vali Asr Square on 17 June. That day, the Iranian opposition group, "Human Rights Activists News Agency", stated that 32 people had died protesting during the events of 24 and 25 June.
Government actions.
Arrests.
On the weekend of 13 and 14 June, in a series of raids across Tehran, the government arrested over 170 people, according to police officials. Among them were prominent reformist politicians, including MIRO founder Behzad Nabavi, IIPF leader Mohsen Mirdamadi, and former president Mohammad Khatami's brother Mohammad-Reza Khatami, who was later released. Also arrested were Mostafa Tajzadeh and Mohsen Aminzadeh, whom the IRNA said were involved in orchestrating protests on 13 June. Anonymous sources said that the police stormed the headquarters of the IIPF and arrested a number of people. Iranian journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin claimed that Mousavi was put under house arrest, although officials denied this. An estimated 200 people were detained after clashes with students at Tehran university, although many were later released.
Acting Police Chief Ahmad-Reza Radan stated via the state press service on the 14th that "in the interrogation of related rebels, we intend to find the link between the plotters and foreign media". A judiciary spokesman said they had not been arrested but that they were summoned, "warned not to increase tension," and later released. Intelligence minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejehei linked some arrests to terrorism supported from outside Iran, stating that "more than 20 explosive consignments were discovered". Others, he said, were "counter-revolutionary groups" who had "penetrated election headquarters" of the election candidates.
On 16 June, Reuters reported that former vice-president Mohammad-Ali Abtahi and former presidential advisor Saeed Hajjarian had been arrested. Human rights lawyer Abdolfattah Soltani, who had been demanding a recount of all votes, was also arrested on the Tuesday according to Shirin Ebadi, who said that security officials had posed as clients. Over 100 students were arrested after security forces fired tear gas at protesters at Shiraz university on the same day. Reporters Without Borders reported that 5 of 11 arrested journalists were still detention as of 16 June, and that a further 10 journalists were unaccounted for and may have been arrested.
On 17 June, former foreign minister and secretary-general of the Freedom Movement of Iran, Ebrahim Yazdi, was arrested while undergoing tests at Pars hospital in Tehran. He was held overnight in Evin Prison before being released and returning to hospital, where according to Human Rights Watch he remained under guard. In Tabriz, other Freedom Movement activists and eight members of the IIPF were arrested, with reports of at least 100 civic figures' arrests. The total number of arrests across Iran since the election was reported as 500.
Aaron Rhodes, a spokesman for the international campaign for human rights in Iran, stated that "Iranian intelligence and security forces are using the public protests to engage in what appears to be a major purge of reform-oriented individuals whose situations in detention could be life-threatening". In Isfahan Province, prosecutor-general Mohammadreza Habibi warned that dissidents could face execution under Islamic law.
Censorship allegations.
According to the "Telegraph", on 14 June "Iran's regime was doing its utmost to choke off the flow of news from its capital." Reporters from the Italian public television broadcaster RAI stated that one of its interpreters was beaten with clubs by riot police and the officers then confiscated the cameraman's tapes. The "Al Arabiya"'s offices in Tehran were closed on 14 June for a week by Iranian authorities, who gave no explanation for the decision. Meanwhile, the director of BBC World Service accused the Iranian Government of jamming its broadcasts to the country. Peter Horrocks said audiences in Iran, the Middle East and Europe had been affected by an electronic block on satellites used to broadcast the BBC Persian Television signal to Iran, adding: "It seems to be part of a pattern of behaviour by the Iranian authorities to limit the reporting of the aftermath of the disputed election".
"Al Jazeera English" leveled allegations of direct media censorship by the Iranian government, stating that "some of the newspapers have been given notices to change their editorials or their main headlines". "BBC" correspondent John Simpson was arrested, his material confiscated, and then released. "NBC News" offices in Tehran were raided, with cameras and other equipment confiscated. "ABC News" reporter Jim Sciutto also has had material taken. People from the German public broadcasters "ZDF" and "ARD" have been harassed as well, with men carrying batons and knives reportedly storming the "ARD"'s Tehran office. A BBC corporate official has referred to the network's conflict with the regime as 'electronic warfare'.
On 13 June 2009, when thousands of opposition supporters clashed with the police, Facebook was filtered again. Some news websites were also blocked by the Iranian authorities. Mobile phone services including text messaging also stopped or became very difficult to use. Specifically, all websites affiliated with the BBC were shut off, as were ones with "The Guardian". Associated Press labeled the actions "ominous measures apparently seeking to undercut liberal voices". The restrictions were likely intended to prevent Mousavi's supporters from organizing large-scale protests. The protesters used phone calls, e-mails and word of mouth to get around the measures.
Ahmadinejad has responded to concerns by saying, "[d]on't worry about freedom in Iran... Newspapers come and go and reappear. Don't worry about it." In response to the crackdown, anti-regime activists have repeatedly taken down Ahmadinejad's and Khamenei's websites. According to CNN, the United States State Department has worked with Twitter to expand the website's access in Iran.
Recount.
Due to opposition protests, the Supreme Leader approved a partial vote recount. This was random, counting 10% of ballots. In order to create transparency, a 12 member council showed the recount on TV and concluded President Ahmadinejad led Mousavi after the recount. The Guardian council certified the election and concluded no evidence of irregularities, closing the election's dossier.
Scapegoats.
The Iranian government blamed the unrest on a variety of targets, including the Baháʼí Faith who served as "canaries in the coal mine of Iran’s theocracy" as Iran's largest religious minority by their state sanctioned persecution and as "scapegoats". Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a Member of Parliament (and previously the Speaker of Parliament) even claimed that BBC stands for "Baháʼí Broadcasting Company" and made other allegations of Baháʼí involvement with outside parties like the Israeli, British and American governments, though some claim that these accusations had little to do with the religion and rather seemed to be a part of an Islamic repertoire of what a heresy is supposed to look like, and are "categorically rejected" by the Baháʼís.
International reactions.
Many western countries expressed doubt about the result and/or reacted in favour of protestors. Other countries, namely Brazil and some other Asian countries, amongst others, welcomed the result.
External links.
Official links
Images
Video testimonies
Polling in Iran
Election aftermath