What's the mass of Canis Major?
VY Canis Majoris
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The future evolution of VY CMa is uncertain, but like the most cool supergiants, the star will certainly explode as a supernova. It has begun to fuse helium into carbon, whereas a main sequence star fuses hydrogen into helium. In 2009, Nathan Smith of the University of California, Ken Hinkle and Nils Ride of the Lund Observatory have used the PHOENIX near-infrared spectrograph on Gemini South to study the geometry and kinematics of the active circumstellar envelopes of two large supergiant stars: Betelgeuse and VY Canis Majoris. These two stars are losing huge amounts of mass in their "last gasps" and could explode as a supernova at any time now although the stars like VY CMa (>15M☉) are too massive to produce type II-P supernovae at red supergiant stage and will probably evolve to higher temperature, likely producing a different type of supernova explosion.[56][3] It is also expected that VY CMa will explode in the next 100,000 years.[49] VY CMa has been discovered to be very unstable, having a prodigious mass loss rate. In this case, the CO emission is coincident with the bright KI shell in its asymmetric nebula. VY CMa will produce a moderately luminous and long-lasting type IIn supernova (SN IIn), or even a hypernova or superluminous supernova (SLSN) comparable to SN 1988Z (or possibly a type Ib supernova), but it is unlikely that the supernova would be extremely luminous like SN 2006tf or SN 2006gy. The explosion can be associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRB) and it will also produce a shock wave of a speed of a few thousand kilometers-per-second that could slam into the surrounding envelope of material and detectable interaction with the surrounding envelope for about a decade after the explosion. This demonstrates that LBVs, such as Eta Carinae, are not the only progenitors of SNe IIn or HN, but it stressed the requirement that these types of supernovae increased episodic mass loss just prior to the explosion. For a star as massive as VY CMa, the remnant would be likely a black hole rather than a neutron star.[56]