page_title: Peak gas
section_title: New gas discoveries
hierarchical_section_title: Peak gas / Gas supply / New gas discoveries
caption_attribution_description: English: This is a chart of giant gas discoveries by decade using this data set 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970	1980 1990 2000 0 1 3 4 8 15 45 62 11 20 8 The vertical axis is Billions of Cubic Meters of Gas
context_page_description: According to M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, peak gas is the point in time at which the maximum global natural gas production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. It is a finite resource and thus considered to be a non-renewable energy source.
  The concept of peak gas follows from Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with peak oil. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world. Since Hubbert's initial predictions in 1956, "the proper application of ever more powerful statistical techniques has reduced much of the uncertainty about the supply of oil and natural gas". One view in 1997 was that Hubbert's use of an exponential decline model was statistically adequate in explaining real world data. However, longer-term experience has shown the predictions to be incorrect.
context_section_description: According to David L. Goodstein, the worldwide rate of discovery peaked around 1960 and has been declining ever since.  Exxon Mobil Vice President, Harry J. Longwell places the peak of global gas discovery around 1970 and has observed a sharp decline in natural gas discovery rates since then.  The rate of discovery has fallen below the rate of consumption in 1980.  The gap has been widening ever since. Declining gas discovery rates foreshadow future production decline rates because gas production can only follow gas discoveries.
  Despite the reported fall in new-field discoveries, world proved reserves of natural gas have continued to grow, from 19 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 1960, 45 bcm in 1970 and 84 bcm in 1980, to a record high 200 bcm in 2012. A researcher for the US Energy Information Administration pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields.
  Dr. Anthony Hayward CCMI, chief executive of BP stated in October 2009 that proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 1.2 trillion barrels (190 km³) of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply if consumption is non-increasing,  and that gas reserves are trending upward. A similar situation exists with oil reserves in that they have increased despite the actual declines of worldwide discoveries for decades and despite increases in consumption. BP’s former Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert stated in 2007 that the growth in oil reserves "results largely from distortions created by the..reporting rules of the US Securities and Exchange Commission" that force companies to be overly conservative in their calculation of reserves, but that "even this illusory growth is unlikely to last," because fewer oil reserves are coming under the control of SEC-regulated companies. However, since Gilbert's statement, proven reserves of both oil and gas have continued to rise, proven oil reserves increasing 23%, from 1.20 trillion barrels in 2007, to 1.48 trillion barrels in 2012.
caption: Natural gas discoveries by decade[citation needed]
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