` *The UN has been monitoring the region for years, and by early December last year (after the rains failed) there were predictions that the conditions were going to deteriorate significantly. I think some regions have reached ``Crisis`` levels on FEWS NET by the start of the year.  :The problem with ``predicting`` humanitarian disasters in these regions is that conditions are always so bad, even in an ordinary year. It's mostly the differences between a lot of people dying and a moderate amount of people dying.  `