 October 2009 (UTC) :You're not accounting for the effects of herd immunity.  For a regular flu, parents of very young children, their daycare providers (if any) and their doctors are usually vaccinated.  The youngest children have no other source for flu exposure (they don't commute, go to school, etc.).  Older children are vaccinated in relatively high numbers (probably around 50%, which is the population average), particularly if they have a preexisting condition that would be a risk factor for complications.  As such, roughly half the population, and presumably a substantially greater portion of the vulnerable population, is immune (or strongly resistant) to the seasonal flu, and the other half (particularly the very young) benefits from limited contact with the unvaccinated.  A more reliable comparison would be to look at mortality rates in poor southern hemisphere countries with limited or no access to vaccine.  If they showed a spike in flu deaths this summer, then we have something to worry about (though with the vaccine becoming available, the risk dwindles daily). Unfortunately, any country with limited access to vaccines is probably not going to keep good records on flu mortality.   18:11, 13