Knowledge data assimilation method and system
BACKGROUND OF INVENTION 
     1. Field of the Invention 
     The present invention relates to an assimilation method and system for knowledge data to solve prediction problems, planning problems, replanning problems, and especially to an assimilation method and system of knowledge data regarding a train traffic regulation system for replanning against train disorders, train traffic predictions, transportation schedule generations travelling plan generation for maintenance and service personnel and man allocation system etc. 
     2. Description of the Prior Art 
     The conventional system has a knowledge extraction support function without a function to incorporate, realize and verify the extracted knowledge, as discussed in the knowledge extraction support system RUSSY (Proceedings on Railway Cybernetics, 1984; pages 139-143) for train traffic regulation. 
     The cited technique has no function to assimilate the extracted knowledge for adaptation, and has a problem in that problem solving system storing with the knowledge has produced unsatisfactory solutions of low precision. 
     SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION 
     The object of the present invention is to provide precision satisfactory solutions having high precision with better adaptability of the system to change, inactivation and/or deletion of the values and contents of the knowledge data stored in a storage in the system for problem solution. 
     Another object of the present invention is to ensure that the assimilation for satisfactory adaptation occurs within a reasonably short period of time. 
     To achieve these objects, the present invention provides a problem solving knowledge data assimilation method and system using an information processing device comprising a processor, a storage device and an input/output device, comprising functions such as 1 generation of the assimilation plan for the assimilation of in the storage based on knowledge data stored in advance for solution of the problem, 2 evaluation of the generated assimilation plan in conformity with the evaluation knowledge stored in advance, 3 determination of the satisfactory assimilation plan based on the result of the evaluation, and 4  change of the knowledge data stored in advance according to the adequate assimilation plan. 
     More specifically, the present invention provides functions to output a satisfactory assimilation plan 1 by supplying the storage device with the knowledge and data for assimilation, 2 by generating the assimilation plan by use of such knowledge and data, 3 by evaluating the generated assimilation plan, and 4 by repeating these procedures 1˜3; until a satisfactory plan is obtained or by taking similar means. 
     The objects can also be attained by the invention providing a man-machine interactive function which permits user&#39;s set-up and change of the assimilation condition plan. For automatic change of the assimilation condition plan and for automatic generation of its guidance, the invention provides that the storage device stores the knowledge, and proposes an alternative plan of assimilation condition and the data on normally reasonable changeable range etc. The invention also allows repeating, as many times as required, the man-machine interactive modification (alteration) of the assimilation plan and its evaluation. 
     The present invention has the following functions and behaviors: 
     Coping with the current status such as prediction error information, for example, an assimilation plan inference function which generates the assimilation plan, generates the assimilation candidate list by using the knowledge and data stored in the storage device for analyzing the error information, and for inferring assimilation items or assimilation values. Then, out of these assimilation candidates, the one whose assimilation items and values meet the specified assimilation conditions and are consistant with each other is selected and edited as an assimilation plan, thus ensuring generation of the satisfactory assimilation plan. 
     The alternative (or modified) plan of assimilation condition is generated by integrated use of data like the knowledge for proposing the alternative plan of assimilation condition, data like the permissible change range and data like the degree of alteration request of the alternative candidate of assimilation condition, thereby ensuring the alternative plan to be reasonable. 
     The foregoing and other objects, advantages, manner of operation and novel features of the present invention will be understood from the following detailed description when read in connection with the accompanying drawings. 
    
    
     BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
     In the accompanying drawings: 
     FIG. 1 is an overall block diagram representing an embodiment of this invention; 
     FIG. 2 is a flowchart representing the procedures in the assimilation processor; 
     FIG. 3 is a flowchart representing the detailed procedures in the assimilation proposal inference block; and 
     FIG. 4 is a block diagram representing the assimilation data. 
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENT 
     The first embodiment of this invention will be described with reference to FIG. 1. 
     FIG. 1 is an overall block diagram. 
     The system as an embodiment of this invention comprises; 
     CPU 1 including assimilation processor 4 which is used to assimilate the knowledge and data for solving the object problems (for example, the train traffic prediction problem, or the problem to recover from a train disorder); 
     storage device 2 which includes assimilation proposal 6, meta-knowledge data for assimilation 5 for its generation and evaluation, object knowledge data 8, observed data 7 (and predicted data, depending on particular cases); and 
     display input device 3 which displays and inputs the data regarding assimilation conditions and assimilation contents. 
     These will be described with reference to concrete examples: the above assimilation proposal 6 is something as &#34;the up-train speed is slightly increased during the overcrowded rush hour time from 7:30 to 8:00 at a particular station.&#34; The observed (predicted) data 7 includes delayed time and stoppage time, and object knowledge 8 includes knowledge on leaving velocity and loading velocity (relationship to congestion rate) and such knowledge as &#34;the leaving velocity is high at the terminal station at the same leaving velocity even when the train is crowded.&#34; 
     The meta-knowledge data for assimilation 5 is based on the following rules, for example: 
     If the delayed time for stoppage at the station is generally overestimated, 
     and the overall assimilation of the number of the loading and leaving passengers is sufficient, 
     then the overall assimilation plan for the velocity of the carriages loaded and left is great. If the delayed time for stoppage at the passengers maldistribution station is extremely under-estimated 
     and the time zone for evaluating the delay at such a station corresponds to morning rush hour, 
     then the assimilation plan for passenger maldistribution rate at the passenger maldistribution station which is poorly evaluated for the delay is considerably great. 
     The assimilation conditions for this case will include the time zone of 7:30 to 9:00 or morning rush hour at the object station, the direction for up/down-train, destination of the train, permissible assimilation range within 10 percent, etc. 
     The assimilation processor 4 comprises; 
     assimilation parameter input processor 41 which serves to enter the assimilation contents including assimilation range and assimilation contents; 
     assimilation output processor 45 which serves to display and output the assimilation plan, its evaluation data and alternative plan of assimilation condition; 
     assimilation plan evaluation function 43; 
     assimilation plan inference function 42 which gives the assimilation plan (alternative plan) and assimilation condition change plan according to the evaluation result; 
     assimilation content deciding function 44 which sets up the assimilation content at the time specified by the operator (human operator, user, etc.); and 
     assimilation manager 40 which controls the sequence of executing the above functions 41 to 45 as well as the data transfer. 
     The assimilation conditions and assimilation contents set by the operator are transmitted from display input device 3 to assimilation processor 4 of CPU 1. An assimilation proposal is given in conformity to the assignment condition, and is transferred to the display/input device (1b), together with the evaluation data (and an alternative plan of the assimilation condition in some cases), where it is displayed. The assimilation content set by the operator and transferred to CPU 1 via display/input device 3 is further sent to storage device 2 (2a), wherein the knowledge and data are changed or added according to the assimilation content. The knowledge and data in storage device 2 are sent to CPU1 (2b) to be used to solve the object problem or assignment processing. To input information into assimilation processor 1, mouse 9 can be used for the input device. 
     This will permit entering the data of the time zone, station, train, etc. directly onto the graphic form by picking up the column representing time band, the line representing the station or &#34;suji&#34; which is a sort of line representing the train running trajectory. In this way, it is possible to initialize and change the assignment condition by the system. 
     FIG. 2 represents the main processing flow for assignment. Firstly, current statuses required for assimilation processing are set in block 2010; these current statuses include the discrepancy of the prediction (for example, delay of leaving time, loading time and stoppage time), errors for each item, and error status (overall deviation or partial deviation). 
     Next, the assimilation plan is inferred as will be described in detail with reference to block 2020 and FIG. 3. The proposal is directly processed in Block 2040 if there is any assimilation plan that satisfies the assimilation condition or alternative plan of the assimilation condition (described below) as a result. If there is no such assimilation plan, the plan evaluated as the best out of the assimilation plans already evaluated is picked up as the assimilation proposal, and is processed in block 2040 as requiring no evaluation. It is then processed in block 2050. 
     The unevaluated assimilation plan is subjected to the assimilation plan evaluation processing in block 2040. If the result of evaluation is negative (NG), it will be returned to the block 2020, and another alternative will be inferred. If the result is positive (OK) or &#34;evaluation not required&#34;, block 2050 will display the assimilation plan, its evaluation data and alternative plan of the assimilation condition. Next, change of the assimilation condition, assimilation plan and approval for assimilation plan are input in block 2060. If the request for change of the assimilation condition is input, the assimilation condition will be changed in block 2070, and is sent back to block 2020. If the request for change of the assimilation plan is input, the assimilation plan will be changed in block 2080, and will be sent back to block 2040. If the approval for assimilation plan is input, the assimilation plan will be set (block 2090), thereby terminating the assimilation processing. The assimilation plan, request for change of the assimilation condition and their evaluation data can be integrated into a set and displayed as one screen on the multi-window screen, according to the specification, as required. 
     FIG. 4 is a block diagram representing the meta-knowledge and data for assimilation. 
     Firstly, the meta-knowledge for assimilation 51 is used to infer the assimilation plan 6 and edit it, and to infer the adequate changed plan under assimilation condition 57. It comprises knowledge for analyzing cause of error 52, knowledge for inferring assimilation candidates 53, knowledge for changing assimilation condition 54 and knowledge for editing assimilation plan 55. 
     The data for assimilation includes current status 56, assimilation condition 57, cause for error (list) 21 (its element: 211), assimilation candidate list 22 (its element: assimilation candidate 221), condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23 (its element: 231), out-of-range assimilation candidate list 24 (its element: 241) where the assimilation value is outside the range, out-of-items assimilation candidate list 25 (its element: 251) which is the assimilation candidate for the items outside the assimilation condition, alternative candidate list of assimilation condition 26 (its element: 261) and alternative plan of assimilation condition 27 (its element: 271). To give a specific example, if the above assimilation items correspond to the number of passengers at the main stations on the Yamanote Line in Tokyo (Tokyo, Shinagawa, Shibuya, Shinjuku and Ikebukuro), the data outside (unincorporated) the above items correspond to the number of passengers at other stations on the Yamanote Line. 
     The alternative candidate of assimilation condition 261 contains the items such as assimilation items name of requests for charge, number of requests for change, their change values, number of requests for upper limit change, lower limit change values, number of requests for lower limit change, etc. 
     FIG. 3 is a flowchart of the assimilation plan inference (Block 2020 in FIG. 2) of assimilation plan inference function 42 in FIG. 1. 
     Firstly, block 3010 initializes all the candidate lists, excepting the alternative candidate list of assimilation condition 26. 
     Next, block 3020 infers assimilation candidate 221. That is, cause for error 21 is inferred by the production rule, etc. from current status 56 and knowledge for analyzing cause of error 52. Furthermore, assimilation candidate 221 is likewise inferred from cause for error 21 and knowledge for inferring assimilation candidates 53. If assimilation candidate list 22 is empty, processing is terminated; if not, block 3030 classifies the assimilation candidates. That is, assimilation candidates satisfying assimilation condition 57 are put into condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23, those not included in the assimilation items are put into unincorporated items assimilation candidate list 25, and those where assimilation values are outside the values specified by assimilation condition 57 are put into out-of-range assimilation candidate list 24. If condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23 is not empty, assimilation plan edit processing is performed in block 3050 directly; if empty, the said processing is performed after processing in block 3040. 
     Block 3040 generates the proposal for change of the assimilation condition. That is, assimilation candidates given in unincorporated items assimilation candidate list 25 and out-of-range assimilation candidate list 24 are transformed according to knowledge for changing assimilation condition 54, and the results are added to alternative candidate list of assimilation condition 26. For example, if the assimilation item names in alternative candidate list of assimilation condition 26 are the same as said assimilation candidates, the system counts up the number of requests for change in the corresponding alternative candidate 261. When the assimilation plan and alternative plan of assimilation condition should be changed or canceled, the items which are frequently subjected to request for change or cancellation are excluded from the assimilation item list, or are assigned with lower priority in the list, for example. 
     Furthermore, out-of-range assimilation candidate 241 given in out-of-range assimilation candidate list 24 is counted up by the upper limit number of requests for change (in case of the assimilation candidate exceeding the maximum value of assimilation condition), or the lower limit number or requests for change (in the case of the assimilation candidate below the minimum value of assimilation condition). 
     Reduce the number of candidates from the alternative candidate list of assimilation condition 26, according to knowledge for changing assimilation condition 54 and create alternative idea of assimilation condition 27. 
     In addition to the above, as examples of the knowledge for changing assimilation condition 54, the following cases are possible; if the number of requests for change is greater the specified value, the system accepts such requests for change, or if the (the number of requests for change+number of request for upper limit change×upper limit change value+number of requests for lower limit change×lower limit change value) is greater than the specified value, the system accept such requests. 
     Block 3050 edits the assimilation candidates to give the assimilation plan. That is, if condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23 is not empty, assimilation candidate 231 is picked up to be the assimilation plan. However, if there are two assimilation candidates having the same same items among the assimilation plans 6, and if their assimilation contents contradict with each other, then one of the two will be selected according to knowledge for editing assimilation plan 55. As examples of knowledge for editing assimilation plan 55, the following cases are possible; if one of the assimilation candidates request assimilation in the direction of increase whereas the other requests it in the direction of decrease, then the assimilation value of said item will be the average, maximum value, minimum value or simple average value (or average value including both directions for increase and decrease) of the assimilation values of the assimilation candidates in which the number of the assimilation candidates having the same item and same direction are greater in the condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23. 
     If condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23 is empty, the assimilation candidates satisfying the assimilation condition for alternative plan of assimilation condition 27 are picked up from the unincorporated items assimilation candidate list 25 and out-of-range assimilation candidate list 24, and are entered into condition satisfying assimilation candidate list 23, to be subjected to the said edit processing. 
     The present invention provides an automatic proposal of the assimilation plan of the knowledge and data for the problem solving system according to the specified conditions, so it is possible to ensure quick and accurate assimilation of the complicated knowledge and data of the problem solving system, including train traffic prediction and replanning against train disorder. This advantage of the present invention permits easy creation of providing high-precision, highly reliable train traffic prediction system and replanning system against train disorder.