Lancair ES
Flight Crew Commercial; Flight Crew Instrument
Flight Crew Last 90 Days 40; Flight Crew Total 1600; Flight Crew Type 260
Other / Unknown
Inflight Event / Encounter Weather / Turbulence
General None Reported / Taken
Weather; Human Factors
[I] conducted an IFR flight to HEF. Precipitation was forecast for my direct route of flight; so instead; I filed a route taking me much further west and clear of precipitation. I was concerned about the possibility of icing; but the briefer reported the freezing level at FL080. I wanted to stay low and filed for FL070. As I continued northbound at FL070 I was in the clear above a layer with OAT at 40 degrees; but dropping to 34 degrees as I continued northbound. Charleston was reporting 45 degrees and scattered ceiling at 8;500 MSL; a good alternate if I needed it. As I got closer to HEF; I was cleared direct CSN. Conditions at Manassas (HEF) were forecast to be scattered at FL055 starting at XA:00 (early evening); but conditions were much worse with visibility below 1 mile and low ceiling with snow. At XB:00; however; ceilings were not rising and visibility was still reported at 1/4 mile. I was concerned about icing; and even spoke to ATC about this while I was still at FL070 in the clear and with temperatures at 32 degrees. I assumed that temperatures would increase as I descended; but once I got closer to CSN and entered IMC; temperatures actually dropped. I was cleared to FL050 and temperatures were 30...yet no icing. ATC queried traffic cleared to CHO; and they did not report any icing. I continued on. I started feeling really uncomfortable with the situation (IMC in below freezing temperatures) and couldn't understand how I found myself in the position. Why did temperatures decrease as I descended and why were conditions much worse at HEF than the XM Weather reported throughout my flight. ATC cleared me to FL030 and I shot the GPS Runway 16L approach with visibility reported at 1 mile and 800 FT ceiling. I popped out at about 900 FT and probably 2 miles visibility; with no trace of ice. Temperatures on the ground were 34 degrees. I was happy to make it safely on the ground; but I had a sick feeling in my gut. I should have not trusted the forecast as much as I did; and I should have diverted to Charleston at the first hint of dropping temps as I descended from FL070 (when I still had the ability to climb and stay in VMC). Big lesson learned!
Lancair pilot reports planning an IFR flight to HEF to avoid IMC and in flight icing conditions. The forecast does not hold up but the reporter continues to HEF in IMC and freezing temperatures and lands after an instrument approach. Minimal enroute icing is actually encountered.