When the roulette has hit 5 reds why shouldn't I bet to black? First some context, I'm not a mathematician, not even close (as you will soon see) I do grasp some things about it but in a need to know basis, so plain english answers are appreciated (too).

I can't figure out this one even though some have tried very hard to explain/convince me.

So let's say I'm on a roulette (let's leave out the zero, or make it a coin for that matter).

The roulette hits 5 (or any amount of) times red on a row.

My question is why should't I bet to black (or better said why it is the same the one I pick).

I DO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC PRINCIPLE, that there is a material reality which makes the ball randomly fall on any of the two colors (which gives the options a 50-50 chance).

But, I also understand that if you "say": I bet red will come out six times on a row, you do have a very low probability of that happening so:

How is it that if you have seen the ball fall 5 times on a row on red, and you bet on red, you are NOT betting on 6 times on a row on red (that does have lower probability).

Thanks in advance!



I hope I was clear enough with my question, if not, please ask for any clarifications needed.

Sorry for the VERY plain English, feel free to modify or suggest a change to anything that may be misleading.
Lots of people have trouble with this.  If you bet before any spins on six in a row, the chance of winning is 1/2^6=1/64.  But having seen the five reds, as you say, the chances are 1/2 each on red and black for the next spin.  It is also true for any specific series of six spins, at the start the chance of that series is 1/64.  If you were to bet on RBBRRB, that is also 1/64.  Now that you have seen five reds, there are only two series of six that are possible:  RRRRRR and RRRRRB.  They each started out 1/64 and are now each 1/2.

Hope this helps
Why wouldn't a series have an increasingly lower probability of extending than a single event has of happening once?

Obviously, each unique spin has a probability of 50% (academically, by excluding the greens) for either color.

However, the overall proportion of total reds vs blacks should be 50%.  So every time another of the same color is added to the group, the probability of the group/sample containing ONLY that one color decreases.  Is there really a 50% probability that a sample size of 100 (e.g.) will contain 100 reds or blacks?  When a person gambles on the roulette spin, he may be betting FOR a single spin, or AGAINST a series.  

Isn't saying that the wheel has no memory like saying the wheel hasn't had a haircut in (x) weeks?  A gambler isn't betting on the wheel, he's betting on the statistics.  Past data would appear to be relevant due to the sampling.  

The trick is to be in the right place at the right time: at what point will the group or sampling attempt to correct itself to ensure an equal distribution of reds and blacks?  Because obviously it is inevitable.