Accepting a tenure track position if I know I won’t stay till tenure I am currently a fixed-term faculty, with the hopes of a tenure-track position somewhere. The last two years I’ve bounced between fixed-term position, both in at least reasonable long-distance driving from where my fiancé and I live. Now a tenure track position has come available for next year still not close to us but again reasonable long distance driving (I've worked anywhere from 1.5-3 hours away). 

I am hoping in the time it would take to get tenure at this new position, a tenure track position in our actual city will become available (pretty big metro). Would I be screwing myself to leave the long-distance tenure track position without tenure, if I got a tenure-track position in our local city? Would it be a red-flag that I’m even applying without tenure or could I explain location as the reason for the move in my cover letter?
I would ask what the cost of applying is, the expected duration of the process, and the prediction of a similar position opening at your current institution. 

If the cost is effectively zero (perhaps two hours of your time, then another hour to interview), the process taking 6 months, and a cursory conversation with your dept. head and budget, you will lose out if you never apply.

But if you do apply, and you are not offered anything, what would the harm be?

If you receive an offer, would you bet that it would be better (in terms of salary and benefits) than your current role right now?