Do hiring committees strategize? This question is for those of you who have been on the hiring committee.

I am wondering if the following scenario could happen.

Applicant X applies to University Y; University Y looks at applicant X's profile, and says "applicant X has very strong records. There is no way University Y is the best applicant X can do; hence we will not offer Applicant X a position (postdoctoral, or TT)"

This seems worrying, because:


perhaps applicant X is just so mediocre, that he falls through the crack; University Y turns him down, but universities slightly better than University Y might think that applicant X is not up to their standards.
what if applicant X actually really wanted to go to University Y for personal reasons? Of course, maybe applicant X was hoping for something slightly better than University Y, so maybe he did not contact the department (in case he decides not to go to University Y).
even from the university's perspective, this is fairly complicated: University Y could take a chance and hope that applicant X will accept their offer, but perhaps it is more advantageous to extend the offer to the applicant next on the list instead of applicant X. There is no way of knowing which is the better choice, though.


In particular, if such scenario happens, and if I want to prevent the first point, what do I need to do? I am wary of contacting the departments, because should the department be excited about me, and should someone push for my being hired in the hiring committee meeting, then I would feel obligated (to some degree) to accept that offer (even if a better offer comes along), since that someone has advocated on my behalf, on my request.
This happens all the time and everywhere.  Strategic decisions about who to interview or make offers to are based not just on perceived quality or market value, but also broader considerations of fit.  It's an unavoidable part of the job market, and I'm not convinced it's even a bad thing overall, since it makes the job market work much more smoothly and efficiently.

This is a tough issue to resolve as an applicant.  There are several reasons why it can be ineffective just to tell the department that you really want to go there:


They may not believe you.  They may suspect you of deliberately exaggerating your likelihood of accepting just in order to get an offer, perhaps so you can use it to help negotiate a better offer elsewhere.  (The academic job market is exactly the sort of high stress, high stakes environment that brings out some people's worst sides.)  Even if they're convinced you're completely honest, they may feel you'll change your mind once you learn more about your other options, or that if you come you'll end up feeling like you made a mistake and they'll have a bitter, resentful colleague who wants to leave.  An applicant who suffers from imposter syndrome may say "Wow, I'd be thrilled to get an offer from University X, which is the best job I can imagine getting" but might not remain as thrilled after getting offers from A, B, and C as well.
Many reasons you could give may be viewed as kind of insulting.  If you explain that you really like the city or want to live near relatives, then it can come across like you are saying "Sure, your department would otherwise be beneath me, but I'm willing to put up with you for non-academic reasons."  The department might be willing to hire you even if they think you feel superior, but they won't be happy about it.  In order for this to work, you have to be very careful about tone.  Two-body problems are widely accepted as an understandable reason, and of course academic reasons can be highly effective, but anything else has the potential for giving a bad impression if you aren't careful.


So announcing your preferences may not always work.  Still, it's really your only option, so it's not worth worrying too much about how it might fail.  To put things more positively:


Try to emphasize aspects of the department that excite you, and not just side benefits such as location.
It's often more effective if you or a mentor convey this information through personal contacts, rather than just talking with the search committee chair.  In particular, hearing from someone senior can add credibility: there have been a number of times I've reassured a department that a student genuinely wanted to work there (and wasn't just confused or suffering from imposter syndrome).
If you already have an ostensibly more impressive offer and can say "I would very likely turn down my offer from University A in favor of a compelling offer from you," it carries a lot of weight.  At the very least, it eliminates the fear that you don't understand your options.  (But say this only if you are quite sure!  If there's even a small chance you would choose A after all, then you should make it clear that you have not made a final decision and might change your mind.  It's unethical to try to manipulate anyone.)