Taking a risk working with a new professor? (Math Grad School) I will be starting a math PhD program in the Fall with hopes of working with a professor who graduated recently (between 4 and 6 years ago). This professor is working in my desired field, but I'm not so sure how established he/she is. Their previous advisor is very famous in this field of math. This professor has &lt; 11 publications so far and is assistant professor (the university is ranked in the 70's on US News). 

I would like to work in academia after my PhD. Am I risking a lot by working under this professor? Is there a way to see how well-established or well-known this professor is in his/her field? I have read a couple of their papers, but I don't know how to gauge the caliber of the research. 

I should also say that there is another professor at this university who has been around longer, and is doing research in my "2nd choice" area. There's a third professor who is well-established in his field (I think), but whose research is more general and classical with little connection to my desired field.
As valuable as your professional connections and mentors are and will be in your career, please do not rely on other people or university rankings to shape your oncoming accomplishments. The responsibility in how successful your future in research will be depends on you-- how well you understand theory and can apply it, which academic and career risks you're willing to take, and the quality of the relationships you cultivate in your field. You may want to also consider more than just the potential mentor's Rolodex and publications portfolio. Is he/she professional? Genuine and authentic? Veracious? Objective? To help you make a better choice, what-if this-- if the person (that you described above) were you post-PhD, would you want you to be your chair? Much success to you.