Early career drought and correlation with future performance I've heard from not a few people that the first postdoc can be quite tough.  You've been kicked out of the nest and have to figure out for yourself what's worth working on, what's likely to turn into a real project, etc.  Many new postdocs struggle to publish or even submit anything in their first year.  Considering the high stakes of academic careers, it makes me wonder if that in and of itself is a sign to pause and figure out a different career path.  To put it as a question,


  Is your paper output the first year of your first postdoc a good metric for future performance?


I imagine it is actually possible to answer this question rigorously with data, but I would be content with anecdotal responses from senior academics.
If you're not productive early, it's doubtful you will be competitive for higher end jobs in academia.  It's a tournament system and the odds are against you, just numerically.  Doesn't mean you are a bad person or a dummy.  But yes, maybe getting out of academia and into the general economy or government is wise.  

It's important for young researchers to pick projects that are high likelihood of success.  Or "areas" with potential for several papers. I once told a grad student in my group "how will you publish that when it doesn't work", who was being pushed to do a dumb set of experiments by my advisor.  And I meant it.  (Some things can/can't publish negative results.)  Probably shouldn't do dumb experiments...but at least if you can publish some "data point" paper(s) afterwards it's not a total loss.

Don't just be a non-thinking "subordinate".  Have your own opinions.  There are always more possible things to do than time to do them.  Give your time to what deserves it. If you are incapable of having good opinions about what projects are worthwhile...you are NOT a budding PI.  

Yes, you should be a paper-cranking machine as a postdoc.  If you can't do it now, how will you do it when you are tenure track at an R1 school?  This isn't grad school and you should hit the deckplates running.  And avoid multi-year laser building projects like the plague.  Let some other sap do those.

Look at these two questions of yours:  Should I quit a project where I can&#39;t see how to contribute? and How to tactfully &quot;decommit&quot; from projects?  I would think the answer to these early questions would be obvious now, in the context of this later one.  You need to focus and churn out first author papers.  

P.s. I'm sure the "reassurance crowd" will down vote this.  But you need to hear the cynical view.