Local, Not Aggregate Employment Is Affected by Robots, Automation, and Trade
From Scott Sumner,
​As you can see the employment ratio was about the same in 2007 as in 1990, and hence the aggregate data shows no evidence that either trade or automation reduced employment during the period studied by Autor, Card and Hanson, as well as Acemoglu and Restrepo.
Of course that doesn't mean these factors have not had a negative effect on overall employment, just that doing so would require a very sophisticated study. Unfortunately, the science of economics has not yet advanced to the point where that sort of study is feasible. And thus we are forced to admit that we simply don't know if there is any effect on overall employment.
​But I do think that we know that trade and automation raise real GDP.
The above was in response to a paper showing that local unemployment often results from deployment of robots. The same is seen as a result of automation and trade, which is why he includes the last sentence above. Local markets are affected by these structural changes, but not necessarily aggregate employment.
Where Are Increased Living Standards Coming From?
Almost entirely from digital goods and services, in contrast to physical goods and services, according to Progressive Policy Institute article,
1. Per capita real consumption of physical goods and services, outside of housing and health care, has grown by only 10% since 2000, or an average of 0.6% annually. By comparison, per capita real consumption of digital goods and services has skyrocketed, growing by 64%, or 3.4% annually.
2. In other words, to the extent that consumer living standards have been rising, the gains have been mainly driven by digital goods and services. For example, per capita real consumption of communication services–including internet, wireless, and cable–is up by 60% since 2000. This calculation is based only on government data, without taking into effect possible unmeasured gains in consumer surplus.
3.. By contrast, in the physical sector per capita real purchases of motor vehicles and parts has risen by only 6% since 2000, or only 0.4% per year. Similarly, per capita real purchases of food and beverages for home use has risen by only 4%, or 0.3% annually. It should be noted that food processing is a manufacturing industry which has shown no labor productivity growth in the past ten years.
4. The Digital Nation is mainly characterized by falling or flat consumer prices, while the Physical Nation is mainly characterized by rising consumer prices. In the digital sector, consumers spend less to get more, while in the physical sector, consumers spend more to get less. The price of communication services is basically flat since 2000, allowing even low and middle-income households to participate in the App Economy.
The whole article is short and worth the read.