1 1989 has begun for Soviets with Mikhail S. Gorbachev warning them not to expect 'manna from heaven' and a multitude of signs - from barren shop shelves to astrology - heralding another hard year in the building of communism.
2 Year IV of 'perestroika,' Gorbachev's driv to refashion Soviet economy and society, will bring the first national multicandidate elections in decades, part of the his campaign for 'democratization,' and continued streamlining in the economy.
3 But at the dawn of the year, as Moscow shivered in subzero cold, such common items as detergent, bath soap, chickens, coffee, toothpaste, sugar, yeast and candy were hard to find or completely absent from state-run stores.
4 On Sunday the Kremlin announced an export ban on goods ranging from caviar to children's shoes, an apparent attempt to hoard chronically scarce Soviet-made products for Soviet consumers.
5 In his televised New Year's Eve message, Gorbachev told his 285 million countrymen that improvements in their lives would be gradual at best in the coming months, and that there would be no miracles.
6 'It is wrong to think, comrades, that somebody will solve our problems for us and that everything around us will change at the wave of a magic wand, with the chime of the clock on New Year's Eve,' he said.
7 'We see now that it is essential to act with greater resoluteness,' said Gorbachev, Soviet leader since March 1985.
8 'We are not awaiting and we are not promising manna from heaven, knowing well that the burden of unresolved issues is heavy, and our road is difficult.'
9 For some, that message may have seemed distressingly like Gorbachev's forecast at the beginning of 1988, when he said 'immense and hard work' lay ahead in his drive for economic change.
10 The multibillion-ruble cost of rebuilding areas of northwestern Armenia shattered by the Dec. 7 earthquake also will cause shortages in the economy, for example in building materials, Prime Minister Nikolai I. Ryzhkov has said.
11 On Jan. 1, all 48,000 state-run enterprises in the nation were put on a pay-their-own-way basis, meaning they are deprived of government subsidies and forced to find ways to generate enough revenue to meet costs and payroll.
12 For Soviet managers accustomed to top-heavy centralized controls, which severely limited their initiative but also freed them from many decision-making responsibilities, 'self-accounting' is a mixed blessing.
13 They are free to negotiate contracts and pursue the once-forbidden goal of making a profit, but also in theory may face bankruptcy if they fail.
14 The nation's 130 million workers, too, can theoretically earn more if they produce more, but run the risk of layoffs if their factory trims its labor force to cut costs.
15 According to Radio Moscow, enterprises that account for 60 percent of Soviet industrial output have been on 'self-accounting' since January 1988.
16 The jury is still out, however, on whether they have gained much freedom.
17 One Soviet economist, Nikolai Shmelov, has said government bureaucrats still exercise effective control over some branches of the economy by issuing them 80 percent and more of their orders they must fill.
18 In March, voters will be called to elect the members of a new Council of People's Deputies that will choose their membership of their national parliament and name a head of state with increased powers.
19 The sole candidate for the new presidential post is widely expected to be the 57-year-old Gorbachev himself, posing further questions about how democratic the Kremlin's 'democratization' process can or will be.
20 At lower levels, however, voters will be able to choose from more than one candidate, in contrast to past practice, when electoral nominees were selected according to social status, age and sex to fill quotas fixed in Moscow.
21 1989 will also bring uncertainty in international relations, as the Kremlin seeks a working relationship with a new U.S. president and decides whether to complete its now-frozen military withdrawal from Afghanistan in time to meet a U.N.-brokered Feb. 15 deadline.
22 Shortly before Gorbachev went on TV with his New Year's message, the official news agency Tass transmitted new year's greetings to English-language subscribers along with the image of a snake, a reminder that according to Oriental astrology, 1989 is the Year of the Snake.
23 Some Soviets, in humor or in earnest, note that past such years in the 12-year Oriental cycle have been the occasion of tragic or cataclysmic happenings in their homeland, and predict an eventful 1989.
24 In 1905, there was an abortive anti-czarist revolution.
25 In 1917, the Bolshevik Revolution brought the Communists to power.
26 In 1929, dictator Josef V. Stalin began the bloody campaign to snuff out private farming.
27 In 1941, the Nazis attacked the Soviet Union.
28 And in 1953, Stalin died, and was succeeded by Nikita S. Khrushchev.

On Sunday the Kremlin announced an export ban on goods ranging from caviar to children ' s shoes , an apparent attempt to hoard chronically scarce Soviet - made products for Soviet consumers .
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