1 October employment data -- also could turn out to be the most confusing.
2 On the surface, the overall unemployment rate is expected to be little changed from September's 5.3%.
3 But the actual head count of non-farm employment payroll jobs is likely to be muddied by the impact of Hurricane Hugo, strikes, and less-than-perfect seasonal adjustments, economists said.
4 The consensus view calls for an overall job gain of 155,000 compared with September's 209,000 increase.
5 But the important factory-jobs segment, which last month plunged by 103,000 positions and raised recession fears, is most likely to be skewed by the month's unusual events.
6 Several other reports come before Friday's jobs data, including: the September leading indicators index, new-home sales and October agricultural prices reports due out tomorrow; the October purchasing managers' index and September construction spending and manufacturers' orders on Wednesday; and October chain-store sales on Thursday.
7 Friday brings the final count on October auto sales.
8 'The employment report is going to be difficult to interpret,' said Michael Englund, economist with MMS International, a unit of McGraw-Hill Inc., New York.
9 Mr. Englund added that next month's data isn't likely to be much better, because it will be distorted by San Francisco's earthquake.
10 What's more, he believes seasonal swings in the auto industry this year aren't occurring at the same time as in the past, because of production and pricing differences that are curbing the accuracy of seasonal adjustments built into the employment data.
11 Wednesday's report from the purchasing agents will be watched to see if the index maintains a level below 50%, as it has for the past couple of months.
12 A reading of less than 50% indicates an economy that is generally contracting while a reading above 50% indicates an economy that's expanding.
13 Samuel D. Kahan, chief financial economist at Kleinwort Benson Government Securities Inc., Chicago, said that the purchasers' report is valuable because it often presents the first inkling of economic data for the month.
14 But he added: 'Some people use the purchasers' index as a leading indicator, some use it as a coincident indicator.
15 But the thing it's supposed to measure -- manufacturing strength -- it missed altogether last month.'
16 David Wyss, chief financial economist at Data Resources Inc., Boston, said that the purchasers' index 'does miss occasionally,' adding: 'When it misses one month it tends to miss the next month, too.'
17 The consensus view on September leading indicators calls for a gain of 0.3%, the same as in August.
18 Economists said greatly increased consumer optimism, a larger money supply and higher stock prices helped lift the index.
19 All orders-related components, such as consumer-goods orders and building permits, are thought to have been weaker.
20 Data Resources' Mr. Wyss added that he will be keeping a closer eye than ususal on October chain-store sales.
21 Usually, October 'isn't a very interesting month {for retail figures} because school clothes have been bought and people are waiting for December to buy Christmas presents,' he said.
22 But Mr. Wyss said he will watch the numbers to get an inkling of whether consumers' general buying habits may slack off as much as their auto-buying apparently has.
23 He noted that higher gasoline prices will help buoy the October totals.
24 Seasonal factors are also expected to have taken their toll on September new-home sales, which are believed to have fallen sharply from August's 755,000 units.
25 Construction spending is believed to have slipped about 0.5% from August levels, although economists noted the rate probably will pick up in the months ahead in response to hurricane and earthquake damage.

But the important factory - jobs segment , which last month plunged by 103 , 000 positions and raised recession fears , is most likely to be skewed by the month ' s unusual events .
recession fears ,
what do you mean by  recession fears?