1 Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega may have accomplished over the weekend what his U.S. antagonists have failed to do: revive a constituency for the Contra rebels.
2 Lawmakers haven't publicly raised the possibility of renewing military aid to the Contras, and President Bush parried the question at a news conference here Saturday, saying only that 'if there's an all-out military offensive, that's going to change the equation 180 degrees.'
3 But Mr. Ortega's threat over the weekend to end a 19-month cease-fire with the rebels seeking to topple him, effectively elevated the Contras as a policy priority just as they were slipping from the agendas of their most ardent supporters.
4 Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell (D., Maine) said yesterday on NBC-TV's 'Meet the Press' that Mr. Ortega's threat was 'a very unwise move, particularly the timing of it.'
5 The threat came during a two-day celebration in Costa Rica to highlight Central America's progress toward democracy in the region, attended by President Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and 14 other Western Hemisphere leaders.
6 Mr. Bush returned to Washington Saturday night.
7 Mr. Ortega announced on Friday that he would end the cease-fire this week in response to the periodic Contra assaults against his army.
8 Saturday, he amended his remarks to say that he would continue to abide by the cease-fire if the U.S. ends its financial support for the Contras.
9 He asked that the remaining U.S. humanitarian aid be diverted to disarming and demobilizing the rebels.
10 Not only did Mr. Ortega's comments come in the midst of what was intended as a showcase for the region, it came as Nicaragua is under special international scrutiny in anticipation of its planned February elections.
11 Outside observers are gathering in Nicaragua to monitor the registration and treatment of opposition candidates.
12 And important U.S. lawmakers must decide at the end of November if the Contras are to receive the rest of the $49 million in so-called humanitarian assistance under a bipartisan agreement reached with the Bush administration in March.
13 The humanitarian assistance, which pays for supplies such as food and clothing for the rebels amassed along the Nicaraguan border with Honduras, replaced the military aid cut off by Congress in February 1988.
14 While few lawmakers anticipated that the humanitarian aid would be cut off next month, Mr. Ortega's threat practically guarantees that the humanitarian aid will be continued.
15 Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole (R., Kan.) said yesterday on 'Meet the Press': 'I would hope after his {Mr.
16 Ortega's} act yesterday or the day before, we'd have unanimous support for quick action on remaining humanitarian aid.' Sen. Dole also said he hoped for unanimous support for a resolution he plans to offer tomorrow denouncing the Nicaraguan leader.
17 While renewing military aid had been considered out of the question, rejected by Congress and de-emphasized by the Bush administration, Mr. Ortega's statement provides Contra supporters with the opportunity to press the administration on the issue.
18 'The administration should now state that if the {February} election is voided by the Sandinistas . . . they should call for military aid,' said former Assistant Secretary of State Elliott Abrams. 'In these circumstances, I think they'd win.'
19 Sen. Mitchell said that congressional Democrats intend to honor the March agreement to give non-lethal support to the Contras through the February elections, although he added that the agreement requires that the Contras not initiate any military action.
20 Mr. Ortega's threat to breach the cease-fire comes as U.S. officials were acknowledging that the Contras have at times violated it themselves.
21 Secretary of State James Baker, who accompanied President Bush to Costa Rica, told reporters Friday: 'I have no reason to deny reports that some Contras ambushed some Sandinista soldiers.'
22 Mr. Baker's assistant for inter-American affairs, Bernard Aronson, while maintaining that the Sandinistas had also broken the cease-fire, acknowledged: 'It's never very clear who starts what.' He added that the U.S. has cut off aid to some rebel units when it was determined that those units broke the cease-fire.
23 In addition to undermining arguments in favor of ending Contra aid, Mr. Ortega's remarks also played to the suspicions of some U.S. officials and conservatives outside the government that he is searching for ways to manipulate or void the February elections.
24 Administration officials traveling with President Bush in Costa Rica interpreted Mr. Ortega's wavering as a sign that he isn't responding to the military attacks so much as he is searching for ways to strengthen his hand prior to the elections.
25 Mr. Abrams said that Mr. Ortega is seeking to demobilize the Contras prior to the elections to remove any pressure to hold fair elections.
26 'My sense is what they have in mind is an excuse for clamping down on campaigning' by creating an atmosphere of a military emergency, he said.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega may have accomplished over the weekend what his U . S . antagonists have failed to do : revive a constituency for the Contra rebels .
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