1 The oil industry's middling profits could persist through the rest of the year.
2 Major oil companies in the next few days are expected to report much less robust earnings than they did for the third quarter a year ago, largely reflecting deteriorating chemical prices and gasoline profitability.
3 The gasoline picture may improve this quarter, but chemicals are likely to remain weak, industry executives and analysts say, reducing chances that profits could equal their year-earlier performance.
4 The industry is 'seeing a softening somewhat in volume and certainly in price in petrochemicals,' Glenn Cox, president of Phillips Petroleum Co., said in an interview. 'That change will obviously impact third and fourth quarter earnings' for the industry in general, he added.
5 He didn't forecast Phillips's results.
6 But securities analysts say Phillips will be among the companies hard-hit by weak chemical prices and will probably post a drop in third-quarter earnings.
7 So, too, many analysts predict, will Exxon Corp., Chevron Corp. and Amoco Corp.
8 Typical is what happened to the price of ethylene, a major commodity chemical produced in vast amounts by many oil companies.
9 It has plunged 13% since July to around 26 cents a pound.
10 A year ago ethylene sold for 33 cents, peaking at about 34 cents last December.
11 A big reason for the chemical price retreat is overexpansion.
12 Beginning in mid-1987, prices began accelerating as a growing U.S. economy and the weak dollar spurred demand.
13 Companies added capacity furiously.
14 Now, greatly increased supplies are on the market, while the dollar is stronger, and domestic economic growth is slower.
15 Third-quarter profits from gasoline were weaker. 'Refining margins were so good in the third quarter of last year and generally not very good this year,' said William Randol, a securities analyst at First Boston Corp.
16 Oil company refineries ran flat out to prepare for a robust holiday driving season in July and August that didn't materialize.
17 The excess supply pushed gasoline prices down in that period.
18 In addition, crude oil prices were up some from a year earlier, further pressuring profitability.
19 Refiners say margins picked up in September, and many industry officials believe gasoline profits will rebound this quarter, though still not to the level of 1988's fourth quarter.
20 During the 1988 second half, many companies posted record gasoline and chemical profits.
21 Crude oil production may turn out to be the most surprising element of companies' earnings this year.
22 Prices -- averaging roughly $2 a barrel higher in the third quarter than a year earlier -- have stayed well above most companies' expectations.
23 Demand has been much stronger than anticipated, and it typically accelerates in the fourth quarter. 'We could see higher oil prices this year,' said Bryan Jacoboski, an analyst at PaineWebber Inc.
24 That will translate into sharply higher production profits, particularly compared with last year when oil prices steadily fell to below $13 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
25 While oil prices have been better than expected, natural gas prices have been worse.
26 In the third quarter, they averaged about 5% less than they were in 1988.
27 The main reason remains weather.
28 Last summer was notable for a heat wave and drought that caused utilities to burn more natural gas to feed increased electrical demand from air conditioning use.
29 This summer, on the other hand, had milder weather than usual.
30 'We've been very disappointed in the performance of natural gas prices,' said Mr. Cox, Phillips's president. 'The lagging gas price is not going to assist fourth quarter performance as many had expected.'
31 Going into the fourth quarter, natural gas prices are anywhere from 8% to 17% lower than a year earlier.
32 For instance, natural gas currently produced along the Gulf Coast is selling on the spot market for around $1.47 a thousand cubic feet, down 13% from $1.69 a thousand cubic feet a year ago.

Major oil companies in the next few days are expected to report much less robust earnings than they did for the third quarter a year ago , largely reflecting deteriorating chemical prices and gasoline profitability .
less robust
What is considered \"less robust\"?  Is that a lot or a little?