What is the probability that a random US voter, when asked about the Democratic ticket, correctly names either the presidential or vice presidential nominee?
The probability is 0.75 or 75%.
{"reasoning_type": "probabilistic"}
Kamala Harris is the presidential nominee and Tim Walz is her running mate for the Democrats in the 2024 election. Assuming a voter has an equal chance of remembering either name, and we consider a correct response as naming either one, we can calculate this as follows: The probability of naming Harris OR Walz is equal to 1 minus the probability of naming neither. If we assume each name has a 50% chance of being remembered independently, the probability of remembering neither is 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25. Therefore, the probability of naming at least one correctly is 1 - 0.25 = 0.75.