If a survey asks voters to name both members of the Democratic ticket, what's the probability that a respondent who knows only one name guesses it correctly?
The probability is 0.25 or 25%.
{"reasoning_type": "probabilistic"}
The Democratic ticket for the 2024 election consists of Kamala Harris as the presidential nominee and Tim Walz as her running mate. If a respondent knows only one name, they have a 50% chance of that name being the correct one for whichever position (presidential or vice presidential) they're asked about first. For the second position, they would have to guess, which also has a 50% chance of being correct. The probability of getting both correct in this scenario is 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25.