No question about it The Cyber House Rules gives it away . <| sep |> Here we go age 80 there is 22 . 5 times more people of healthy weight as obese ones cost with worst data you gathered 300 k vs 500 k it is still 2 300 k vs 500 k normal weight people cost additional 50 k each at age 83 , because there are 2 times more of them surviving . And it does not take into account another factor I mentionedObesity cost 67 years of living meaning that healthy weight people cost exactly 67 years of health care cost at the last stage of life when health insurance is most costly . Now calculating normal healthy people starting 65 years when they stop paying taxes and stop being a surplus to community live for another lets say 15 years , costing each year using your data average amount 240 k lets assume linear growth . Obese people living at least 6 years shorter cost 9 years with average cost 400 kNow calculation 15 240 3600 equals 9 400 3600 Hm , I guess that equals . Need more data , especially accumulated per BMI per life time cost to get TRUE answer . But you see my point your calculation uses only part of data one factor yearly cost of HI and your statement is only true with regards to one year cost and do not take into account life expectancy lifetime cost cohort quantity . It does not also take account for budget cost of pension , which are the same for both cohort and life expectancy makes gov pay 915 40 % less of that to obese people .