【 뉴욕 = 정지원 특파원 】 미국 의 경제 가 지난 90 년 대 일본 이 겪 은 ‘ 잃어버린 10 년 ’ 의 길 로 향하 고 있 다는 우려 가 증가 하 고 있 다고 뉴욕 타임스 ( NYT ) 가 지난달 30 일 ( 현지 시간 ) 보도 했 다 . NYT 는 이번 미 중간 선거 에서 공화 당 의 승리 가 점쳐 지 고 있 는 가운데 버락 오바마 행정부 의 추가 경기 부양 가능 성 이 희박 하 며 경기 회복 이 지속 될지 도 큰 의문 이 라고 지적 했 다 . 이 신문 에 따르 면 많 은 이 코노 미스트 들 은 미국 의 경제 가 2008 년 전 의 수준 을 되찾 기 위해서 는 7 ∼ 10 년 이 걸릴 수 도 있 다고 내다보 고 있 다 . 한 경제 전문가 는 “ 정부 의 부양책 감소 와 소비자 들 의 불안감 , 기업 들 의 감원 정책 등 으로 인해 미국 의 경제 가 앞 으로 장기간 회복 하 지 못할 가능 성 이 감지 되 고 있 다 ” 고 전했 다 . NYT 는 “ 미국 의 현재 경제 분위기 는 일본 의 20 년 전 분위기 와 상당히 흡사 하 다 ” 며 “ 미국 의 가장 큰 고민 은 디플레이션 함정 에서 어떻게 빠져 나올 것 인가 ” 라고 분석 했 다 . 워싱턴 소재 피터슨 연구소 의 애덤 포 즌 연구원 은 “ 미국 은 ‘ 우리 는 일본 이 아니 다 ’ 라는 우월감 에 빠져 있 다 ” 며 “ 하지만 일본 이 아니 더라도 일본 처럼 될 수 있 다는 사실 을 망각 해서 는 안 된다 ” 고 강조 했 다 . 일부 에서 는 이번 중간 선거 를 통해 미국 정계 에 양분 화 현상 이 심화 되 면서 정책 이행 에 큰 장애물 이 될 수 있 다고 우려 하 고 있 다 . 일본 의 이코노미 스 트인 슘 페이 다케 모리 는 “ 1990 년 대 일본 처럼 미국 이 정책 마비 상태 에 빠질 위험 이 있 다 ” 며 “ 정치 적 이념 에 따른 양분 화 현상 은 필요 한 정책 이행 을 불 가능 하 게 만든다 ” 고 말 했 다 . 매사추세츠 공대 의 사이먼 존슨 교수 는 “ 현재 미국 의 경제 는 지난 2006 년 수준 에 도 못 미친다 ” 며 “ 우리 는 이미 5 년 을 잃어버린 상태 ” 라고 주장 했 다 . 그러나 미국 과 일본 은 문화 적 이나 정치 적 으로 다르 기 때문 에 같 은 운명 을 겪 지 는 않 을 것 이 라는 주장 도 제기 되 고 있 다 . 이 코노 미스트 들 은 “ 미국 과 일본 의 사회 는 근본 적 으로 다르 기 때문 에 비교 대상 이 되 지 않 는다 ” 라며 “ 미국 이 지난 1980 년 대 초반 경제 위기 를 겪 었 을 당시 에 도 많 은 경제 전문가 들 이 회복 에 대한 비관 적 인 의견 을 제시 했 지만 이 는 현실 로 이어지 지 않 았 다 ” 고 밝혔 다 . / jjung 72 @ fnnews . comIn the annals of economic policy blunders , the one in which Hiroshi Kato played a hand in early 1997 ranks among the biggest in recent Japanese history . Photo : Bryan Jones _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _________________________ Mr . Kato led a government advisory committee that concluded that the economy , which was then finally starting to rebound from the collapse of its 1980 s land and stock bubbles , was healthy enough to raise the national consumption tax to 5 percent from 3 percent . Aimed at reducing deficits , the tax increase instead quickly snuffed out the fragile recovery , pushing Japan to the brink of a financial meltdown and thrusting the nation deeper into the economic morass from which it has yet to emerge even today . " Our sins are large , " Mr . Kato , now president of Kaetsu University in Tokyo , said ruefully . " I hope the rest of the world can learn from this mistake . " And indeed , the lessons of Japan ' s long stagnation are well known to American policy makers like the treasury secretary , Timothy F . Geithner , and the chairman of the Federal Reserve , Ben S . Bernanke , who have studied Japan ' s policy missteps . In 1999 , Mr . Bernanke , then an academic , tartly criticized Japanese officials for mishandling their 1990 s financial crisis , saying Japan ' s plight was " self induced . " Partly because of that expertise , American policy makers have long been confident , even during the darkest days of the current financial crisis , that the United States could avoid the fate of Japan and its two lost decades . But now , with growing signs that the United States might be a lot closer to a Japan - style slump than previously thought , that confidence is waning . In the United States , a robust recovery remains stubbornly elusive , and Mr . Bernanke is said to be ready to take new , unconventional steps to increase the money supply in order to maintain the uncertain growth of the past year . He is also said by close associates to favor further fiscal measures to stimulate the economy . But in the current political climate , with Republicans poised to make strong gains in the midterm elections while preaching fiscal austerity , the prospect of more federal stimulus spending seems remote , and it is unclear if monetary policy alone will be enough to restore healthy growth . Partly as a result , some economists now predict that it could take years or even a decade for the American economy to regain the levels of employment and vigor achieved before the 2008 crisis . The growing political pressure for cuts in federal spending - along with plunging consumer confidence and companies that seem more intent on cutting costs and hoarding cash than investing in new growth - have led economists to talk of the United States ' entering a grim new era of austerity . That is very close to what befell Japan two decades ago , when the seemingly invincible Asian economic juggernaut fell into a deep rut of chronically anemic demand and corrosive price declines , known as deflation , from which it has never fully recovered . The parallels are so striking , and unsettling , that economists are now taking a renewed look at Japan for insights on how the United States can avoid the deflation trap . " There has been a political and intellectual arrogance in the United States that it won ' t happen to us , " said Adam S . Posen , a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington . " We shouldn ' t be so smug . You can get there without being Japan . " Indeed , the financial crisis that crippled Japan ' s once high - flying economy appears an eerie precursor of the one that struck much of the global economy in 2008 . In Japan , a huge expansion in credit created twin price bubbles in the land and stock markets that , when they burst in the late 1980 s and early 1990 s , left banks and other companies drowning in failed real estate investments . But perhaps the most alarming part is what came next : a collapse in demand that pushed prices and ultimately wages into a self - reinforcing deflationary spiral , which made already stingy individuals and businesses even less willing to use money , because falling prices meant that cash itself gained in value . Japan has remained trapped in this spiral despite the equivalent of trillions of dollars in stimulus spending , more than a decade of near - zero interest rates and even unconventional steps by the central bank similar to those now contemplated by Mr . Bernanke , like purchasing corporate and government bonds to increase the money supply . Despite the strong parallels , there are still reasons to think the United States can escape what has been called Japanification . The United States and Japan are very different , culturally and politically , and Japan faces a host of unique problems that have sapped its vitality , like a rapidly aging populace that has created generational tensions , and the closing of its doors to immigration and the youthful labor and fresh ideas that can bring . Economists say the dynamic United States economy has shaken off seemingly intractable slumps before , as in the frightening recession of 1980 - 82 , when conditions and the prospects for recovery seemed , for a while , every bit as bleak as they do now . However , some warn that the United States could still get it wrong , especially if the midterm elections produced a sharply divided political landscape . " The danger is if the U . S . plunges into policy paralysis just like Japan in the 1990 s , " said Shumpei Takemori , an economist at Keio University in Tokyo . " Ideological divides and political divides can make bold policy action impossible . " In fact , some economists warn that the United States may be deeper into Japan - style stagnation than is widely realized . Simon Johnson , a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund , estimates that the total output of the American economy this year will be no higher by his estimate than it was in 2006 . Some economists warn that the United States may be deeper into Japan - style stagnation than is widely realized . Simon Johnson , a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund , estimates that the total output of the American economy this year will be no higher by his estimate than it was in 2006 . " We ' ve already lost half a decade , " said Mr . Johnson , now a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology . In addition , economists say , Japan had one advantage the United States does not . With its high savings rate , the government could borrow from its own domestic sources at minuscule rates to finance trillions of dollars in stimulus projects . By contrast , the United States has to sell its government bonds to foreign investors , who are likely to demand higher interest rates as its national debt grows . Leading Japanese economists also said their nation ' s many failures - like the 1997 tax increase - yielded one crucial lesson on combating the aftereffects of a financial panic : the need to avoid policy flip - flops . " The lesson is that there is a proper sequence for pulling a nation out of a financial crisis , " said Heizo Takenaka , an economist who was the architect of the successful cleanup of Japan ' s banking system in the early 2000 s . " First , you restore growth before worrying about deficits . " However , Mr . Takenaka acknowledged that while the banking problems have been largely fixed , Japan has yet to come up with a strategy for restoring growth , which he says is the only way to end deflation . MORE FROM NYTIMES . COM " World " Politics " BusinessThis month , Japan ' s central bank pushed its benchmark rate back down to zero . However , central bankers here argue that it is not enough just to loosen monetary policy when a lack of borrowers and new investment means there is no demand for money to start with . And this points to another feature of Japan ' s experience that may already be visible in the United States : the paradox of a stagnant economy that is awash in cash . This occurs when companies and individuals stop spending and banks stop lending for fear that anemic growth and rising bankruptcies will result in defaults . This is particularly apparent in regional economies outside Tokyo , which remains relatively vibrant . In a healthy economy , banks typically lend out more money than they have on deposit . But in Osaka , Japan ' s third largest city and commercial hub , nearly two decades of hoarding of cash created the unusual situation in 2002 of deposits at all the city ' s banks surpassing their outstanding volume of loans . Since 1997 , the total amount of loans by the city ' s banks has fallen by a third , to $ 530 billion , while deposits have risen by 20 percent , to $ 767 billion . " Deflation has made everyone very conservative and eager to hold cash , " said Hiroshi Tanaka , a senior director at Osaka Shinkin Bank . " We have too much cash and nowhere to invest it all . " This has created distortions in Japan ' s economy . One is a sharp drop in the number of times cash changes hands in normal business and spending transactions . This so - called velocity of money has dropped to about a third the level of the United States , according to figures from the Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo . Another distortion is Japan ' s so - called dresser savings - the piles of cash that individuals keep at home for fear that their banks may also go bankrupt . These stashes are estimated to total about $ 370 billion , according to Akira Otani , a researcher at the Bank of Japan . Economists see early signs that the United States is heading down the same path . Recent data shows a surge in savings rates to 6 . 4 percent in June from less than 1 percent in 2005 , reflecting consumers ' reluctance to spend , and continued disinflation . The picture is not entirely bleak for the United States , where the constant drive to innovate can produce bursts of growth that few economists or anyone else can see coming . While Japan was seen once as an unstoppable powerhouse , the picture was altered by wave after wave of technological innovation in the United States - the personal computer industry , then the Internet and Web businesses , smart phones , and mobile software . That dynamism , economists note , is often wrenching . But it also means that investment dollars and people shift more rapidly to new opportunities . In Japan , though , such painful payroll cuts and corporate deaths were postponed for years . " Track World Market Indexes HereThe American approach to economic adjustment is " shock treatment , " said Edward J . Lincoln , director of the Center for Japan - U . S . Business and Economic Studies at New York University , while " Japan favors stability and the corporate socialization of the pain . "" Deep down inside , as an American , " Mr . Lincoln said , " I tend to think that the United States ' approach makes for a healthier economy in the long run . "※ 저작권자 ⓒ 파이낸셜 뉴스 . 무단 전재 - 재 배포 금지 [ ☞ First - Class 경제 신문 파이낸셜 뉴스 구독 신청 하 기 ]