2019 년 6 월 24 일 - 14 분 읽 기 
 Global growth continues to slow , but is still positive . Current macro fundamentals are sufficient and suggest a rate cut would be delayed . However , survey data and market messaging signal that rate cuts are more likely and sooner than hard economic data would indicate . 
 Global growth continues to slow , but is still positive . Since last month , we ’ ve seen softer U . S . data and weakness in Europe , China and EM . 
 U . S . – Following better than expected 1 Q 19 GDP growth , estimates for 2 Q 19 growth have been consistently revised lower . Consumer spending looks like it will hold up in 2 Q 19 , but investment , trade and some give back in inventories are likely to drag on growth . The U . S . economy continues to outperform relative to the Eurozone and China . Hard data is still stronger than the survey data , but any follow through is likely to increase the downside risks to growth . 
 Europe – Eurozone growth momentum is likely to slow in 2 Q 19 after better than expected growth in 1 Q 19 . Ongoing weakness in international trade continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector , while the services and construction sectors show resilience and the labor market continues to improve . Rising odds of a no - deal Brexit have dampened the economic growth outlook in the U . K . 
 Japan – The outlook for growth remains subdued following a surprisingly strong 1 Q 19 GDP number . Increasing trade tensions have heightened downside risks . Weakness in the economies of key regional trading partners has also diminished growth prospects . 
 China – 1 Q 19 GDP growth surprised to the upside , but the trade war and weaker economic data signal the outlook is deteriorating . Industrial output growth has slowed and investment has decelerated , creating headwinds for economic growth and optimism for a fiscal and / or monetary response . 
 Global central banks are embarking on a synchronized policy easing to sustain growth and limit downside risks . 
 Fed – Dovish signal at the June FOMC meeting that rate cuts are forthcoming . Persistent low inflation could increase chances of a rate cut . 
 ECB – June meeting surprised markets with a dovish message as Mario Draghi winds down his term . This increased expectations for a future rate cut and additional stimulus , leading markets to price in more loosening . 
 BOE – Highlighted the risks of a no - Brexit deal at the June meeting , but kept policy settings on hold for now . 
 BOJ – The June meeting saw no change in yield curve control targets , however , indicated a willingness to ease further to spur inflation . 
 PBOC – A shift to looser monetary policy seems likely to combat economic weakness and improve interbank liquidity . 
 Rates markets are currently pricing in a 100 % chance of a Fed rate cut next month . While the 3 M / 10 Y curve remains inverted , the 2 s / 10 s UST spread has widened to 26 bps from 15 bps one month ago . 10 - year Bund and JGB yields moved further into negative territory following dovish signals by their central banks . Globally , inflation expectations have fallen as incoming data has been weaker than expected . 
 The USD has been resilient recently amid increasing concerns over the global growth outlook . Only very recently has the USD exhibited some weakness , taking its cue from the Fed ’ s dovish signal . Commodity prices have come under pressure over the last month on a weaker demand outlook , but oil has risen recently amid rising Mideast tensions . 
 G - 20 Osaka summit at the end of the week 
 Escalation of trade war between the U . S . and China or via tariffs on Europe 
 U . S . budget deal / debt ceiling 
 U . K . PM vote and direction of Brexit