Aaaand you ' re making shit up again . You can absolutely go to your boss with a straight face and say ' I gave that a 30 % chance of happening and it happened but I ' m pretty sure my model is very good . ' Which is the situation we ' re actually talking about here . Now , the difference here is that normally you just go collect 100 more data points and see how well that distribution fits your model ' s predictions . But because we only get 1 data point every 4 years for the presidential model , it ' s a lot harder to calibrate . But 30 % is not very far off . <| sep |> Ah yes , completely fabricated . Totally made those stories up man . . 05 cents have been deposited in your account . <| sep |> There ' s no ' commitment ' requirement . As the admins love to say , subs are virtual fiefdoms .