The person whose thoughts I ' d love to see is Raghuram Rajan . I suspect he is staying quiet out of respect to the country and the democratic institutions serving it . He might speak up though if he thinks things are going to shit . Several things I believe get missed in analysisIndia ' s economy is one whole but the richer , urban economy runs differently from the agricultural , rural areas . What ' s going on in Bombay and Delhi is not necessarily what ' s going on in UP . The urban economy has easier access to more banks , more ATMs and more electronic payment schemes . Urban Indians will be getting a few interesting productivity improvements because of this . This may keep BJP successful in cities , and unsuccessful in rural areas , an interesting urbanrural political split . I believe that bank deposits , since there ' s no currency to spend them , need to be discounted , in some instances , heavily , in comparison to cash . We can talk about 6 lakh crore in new bank deposits till our eyes bleed but if the money can ' t move anywhere it ' s not relevant and requires discount . In comparison , cash in 100 rupee notes carries a premium . I suspect that demonetization was done in part to recapitalize the PSUs . But I think we need to be less sanguine about the future for more loans . A lot of India ' s credit come in the form of microfinance which is built around frequent , small repayments . That system has been fucked , and I expect that as that trickles up we will see a lot of loan failures . Cleaning this mess up will take a couple of years during which no one will be borrowing money . This effect will be worsened if there is indeed a drop in real estate values . A bunch of underwater mortgages will lock up major parts of the credit system for years . Compare to US states like Florida and Nevada after 2008 . FDI is abandoning India . International investors are spooked and the government ' s focus on black money at the expense of economic stability is freaking too many people out . A prolonged period of cheap rupee will raise petrol prices and other imports . Demonetization , like Brexit , is insidious in its effects . That ' s to say that it is rotting the Indian economy from the edges in a way that will be difficult to see until way after it has occurred . Politically and economically the country ' s 100 % focus will be correcting the problems of demonetization . Any other development is just not possible for years . I still think the food chain may lock up in some way . We have to seriously think about what the long term effects of a reduction in daily calorie intake look like spread among several hundred million people .