My understanding is that Kupe , the Maori navigator , did not make a one way trip to Aotearoa nor was it a let ' s jump in the waka and see where we end up expedition . It was planned , it was calculated , and there were several return voyages to and from the Cook Islands . I can ' t remember the reference , so take this at face value <| sep |> I completely agree with both of your points . It reminds me of the time Nate Silver said his models were i a c t e d l i k e a p u n d i t andscrewedupondonaldtrump . I mean , a statistician saying the w word in a probabilistic context makes him such a hack , right ? No worries , I ' m sure the New York Times will be bankrupt soon for employing him . sOne relevant quote seems appropriate aside from the sarcasmIt ' s tempting to make a defense along the following lines Almost nobody expected Trump ' s nomination , and there were good reasons to think it was unlikely . Sometimes unlikely events occur , but data journalists shouldn ' t be blamed every time an upset happens . But I don ' t think this defense is complete at least if we ' re talking about FiveThirtyEight ' s Trump forecasts . We didn ' t just get unlucky We made a big mistake , along with a couple of marginal ones . The truth is , anyone can look up for themselves the concepts discussed here and figure out how they work or , for that matter , things Nate Silver has said about his own models . You , for whatever reason , refuse to do that . There are no secrets here . Your comments have not illuminated some mysterious statistical wisdom . And you are right , you probably were better served not commenting at all , but I hope you haven ' t wasted your time . I honestly hope this helps you dive more deeply into these concepts to understand them better .