I pretend like i ' m roleplaying but my town clothes are just an excuse for fortify sneak , fortify barter , fortify illusion , fortify lockpicking without taking up enchanting slots on my actual armour . <| sep |> I liked Norway the months i was there . Do you have a summer solstice festival also ? Something about floating barges of fire and all night parties on lakes <| sep |> All according to keikaku . <| sep |> I ' m ok my gear score is 197 but I can ' t find anyone to play with . Gt camokidd 123 <| sep |> Hmm , it ' s been a while since I did stats but here ' s how I would approach the problemLet ' s say you decide to continue playing . Now , based on my reading of the question , you stand to either win 1000 $ or win 0 $. Those are our 2 possible outcomes . The expected value for your winnings is then 0 P 0 1000 P 1000 where P 1000 is your chances of getting all your picks right , and since any outcome other than getting all of them right results in you winning 0 , P 0 is just 1 P 1000 . So E 01 P 1000 1000 P 1000 and for this to be more profitable than cashing out , we have the constraint E 800 So we have if 1000 P 1000 800 , you should continue playing . Now the trick is estimating P 1000 , or equivalently the probability of picking all correct teams for how many ever weeks are left in the season . Google tells me there ' s 6 left . Taking a naive approach of assuming each of your picks for the next 6 weeks individually have the same chance of being correct , the expected value is then E 1000 x 6 where x is an estimate of how likely you think your pick is correct . The 6 is the weeks remaining , so if it ' s not 6 , you would just change the exponent . Say you think each pick has a 50 % chance of winning inaccurate in real life but let ' s go with it your Expected winnings are 1000 0 . 56 15 . 62 $ How about a 90 % chance ? Then your E is 1000 0 . 96 531 $ So for you to have an expected value of 800 , you would need to be more than x 0 . 816 0 . 9635 96 . 35 % confident in each of your picks for the next 6 weeks . Again , I ' m not an expert in stats , and I ' ve made a bunch of simplifying assumptions so this is far from rigorous , but maybe it helps you out a bit . Edit Of course as you play more weeks , your estimated cut of the final pool could go up as well , and potentially have higher buyouts offered . Pop the values into S X pn where S is the buyout offer , P is your estimated cut of the final prize pool , and n is the number of weeks remaining . Solve for p and you ' ll know how confident in your picks you would have to be to have an expected winning greater than the offered buyout