Some ppl have so much free time . <| sep |> Both brexit and trump were pro nationalism and anti globalism . Both were down by like 5 percent in polls the day before the vote , and then won . The popular vote in the US is actually really close to what was predicted by the polls . Hillary is currently up 1 . 5 in the official count . State wide polls had a lot of variability but were relatively close within the margin of error . Only a few states turn out to be really wrong . I don ' t see a trend . With regards to weighing , this article is the sort of thing I am referring toFirst , let me just say the interpretation of that Wikileaks email cited in that link is completely misguided . The discussion of oversample is not to juke the statistics , but it is you get more granular results on key demographics e . g . , By Markets , Regions , etc . . The more you oversample , the deeper analytics you can do . That is clearly what they are talking about . Any oversampling would be adjusted in the weighting stage to produce representative results . I don ' t actually see anything wrong with the methodology . There could be many reason for this . One of the more obvious ones is that Democrats actually have a registration advantage compared to republicans . See affiliation . aspx