This election was defined by one thing populist upset . And yet Sanders still lost the primary . <| sep |> ~~ I don ' t even know why I bothered doing this ~~ Well , luckily for you , I actually followed through . I took a look through my scouting samples I took nearly a year agoivvuudj 8 sheb 55873 f and collected all of the 101 pulls and see what I got . There weren ' t a lot of 101 pulls they were mostly rerolls , but there ' s actually enough to make a point . This is what my results were . Important note these are pre 4 . 0 and mixed between EN and JP , so no SSRs . I pretty much followed your methods , just converted them to the pre 4 . 0 probabilities p 0 . 9 , q 0 . 09 , and I put what they should be on the image . The probability of option 1 falls outside of the 99 % confidence interval , and option 3 is nowhere near it , so it ' s pretty safe to say that option 2 is the correct method for guaranteed SR . uFinnFinite