Groping reality I love it ! <| sep |> 538 should be proud . They were basically screaming . That what happened had a very good chance of happening . Yes , their model showed Clinton had a better chance of winning . BECAUSE THAT ' S WHAT THE POLLING DATA SAIDyet despite Clinton leading in nearly every poll , 538 posted articles warning that her electoral college chances were very weak , and that all it took was a slight polling error for it to go Trump ' s way . They posted articles saying that if one state went Trumps way , many states with similar demographics would do the same . Again , they warned multiple times that Trump had a very good chance of winning , and their model showed it . 30 % chance when all polls showed Clinton was going to win ? When other prediction models have her up to a 99 % chance ? The result of this election surprised me less BECAUSE 538 warned me this could happen . They stand out from the crowd of people saying Clinton it was a lock . They should be commended for their model .