Preface I live in Italy . I currently own PUTs for DEC 16 on the Italian index FTSE MIB expecting a drop leading up to the vote and another huge drop if NO wins . I also own shares of Banca Monte Paschi which is going through a major restructuring . The bank is too important for the Italian government let it fail would result in a major civilpolitical crisis . Worst case they sell it cheaply to the Arabs which most of the population wouldn ' t even know . Regarding the referendumLatest polls for the referendum vote came out last week if I ' m not mistaken , I believe there ' s some law here that doesn ' t allow polling close to the vote date . These polls showed that NO has a big chance of winning , and that 25 % of the population has not decided yet . The left has already said that if YES wins they will contest the vote trying to exclude Italian votes that came from abroad which are mostly voting YES . So even if YES wins , things might not settle for a while . Now even if NO wins , and Renzi resigns , I do not believe the Five Star Movement can get a Prime Minister elected and then run another referendum on leaving the EU . Even if that happens , I am extremely skeptical that the Italians would vote to leave EU . Now for the banking stocks Stock market analysts have said that most of the big investors are waiting for the results of the referendum to invest in these banks . MPS has done a roadshow trying to get some major investors to sponsor its r e s t ructuringrecapitalization plan and , even though rumors say they got a few on board , most of the investors said they would only confirmsign after a YES win in the referendum . Regarding the French situationYes Le Pen can be the female Trump , but even if she wins I believe she will , once elected , just like Trump , soften on most of these extreme issues . France will not leave the EU .