Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe representatives inspect the area around Donetsk Airport on Saturday . ( TASS - Yonhap ) MOSCOW ― A year since the start of the fighting in eastern Ukraine , Vladimir Putin may not have emerged the winner in his showdown with the West but he has not lost either , analysts say . By supporting Ukrainian separatists , they say , he took a huge risk but it largely paid off as it allowed him to punish Kiev ’ s pro - Western authorities for seeking to turn their back on Russia and stand up to the West . Most importantly for the Kremlin , the annexation of Crimea and support for fellow Russian speakers in Ukraine ’ s east have given a huge boost to Putin ’ s popularity ratings at home . According to a February study from the Levada Center independent polling group , the number of people who want Putin to seek a fourth term in 2018 has more than doubled to 57 percent since December 2013 . “ What Putin wanted was clear a year ago ― he wanted a blocking stake in Ukraine or ― the next best option ― a manageable conflict , ” Nikolai Petrov , a professor at the Higher School of Economics , told AFP . “ To a large degree the Kremlin has achieved what it wanted . ” Ukraine marks the first anniversary of the start of the conflict in a hugely demoralized state with its economy shattered and NATO membership a very distant , if not impossible , prospect . “ They managed to keep Ukraine out of NATO because it is struggling with two unresolved territorial disputes , ” Alexander Baunov , a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Center , told AFP . If Putin gambled that the West would not move to burn all its bridges with Russia nor engage the former Cold War foe militarily , he was right . While Washington has been vocal in its assertion that Moscow has been sending troops over the border to buttress Ukrainian separatists , it has held off on supplying Kiev with lethal weapons over fears of escalation . Economy - wise , the U . S . and European Union have forged a united front , slapping Russia with several rounds of sanctions , but decided against radical measures like cutting Moscow off from the SWIFT banking system . Russia withstood the blow , and the government recently declared that the worst was over for the recession - hit economy . After a shock slump late last year , the Russian ruble has recently rebounded following a lull in fighting in Ukraine and the steadying of oil prices . Economists have forecast stagnation over the next few years but naysayers predicted imminent financial collapse has been floored . In a sign that Putin may be getting ready to break out of Western isolation , he is considering whether to travel to New York to speak at the 70 th session of the U . N . General Assembly this fall , the Kremlin said . It would be his first U . N . visit over the past 10 years . Such a move would have appeared unimaginable several months ago when Putin appeared crushed under the weight of international condemnation when a Malaysia Airlines Boeing came down over rebel - held Ukraine , killing all 298 people on board . The West and Kiev claim that Moscow - backed rebels shot the jet out of the skies by mistake , with a missile provided by Russia . In a bid to counter raging accusations that he was personally guilty , an ashen - faced Putin recorded an unprecedented nighttime video address , urging the West and Kiev not to exploit the tragedy for political gains . But as a shaky truce appears to be taking hold in Ukraine , Russia has apparently managed to put the worst of the fallout behind it . That may explain Putin ’ s jokey mood at the triumphant celebrations marking one year since the takeover of Crimea last month when he quipped that Russia “ will overcome the difficulties that we have so easily created for ourselves . ” To a large extent , Putin has been lucky , after rushing into the confrontation with the West without a well - thought - out plan , observers said . “ There was a set of tasks and Napoleon ’ s famous maxim , ’ On s ’ engage et puis on voit ’ ( Let ’ s jump into the fray and then figure out what to do next ) , ” Konstantin Kalachev , head of the Political Expert Group think tank , said of the president ’ s attitude . Even if his tactics have often defied comprehension , Putin has made his message abundantly clear : the West should understand that a new , post - Soviet Russia is a force to be reckoned with . “ Putin will neither give up nor back off , ” Dmitry Trenin , director of the Carnegie Moscow Center , wrote in a recent report . “ Moscow will continue to defy U . S . global hegemony and act in its own self - interest , guided by its own set of values and without seeking prior U . S . or EU approval . ” The fighting has exacted a huge human toll . According to official statistics , more than 6 , 000 people have died in eastern Ukraine since last April , and human rights activists say scores of Russian troops sent over the border may have also perished in the ex - Soviet country . Ties between ordinary Russians and Ukrainians have also been torn apart , with observers saying years ― if not decades ― will be needed to heal the rift . 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