The government is considering cutting the growth forecast for next year to about 4 percent from the current 4 . 5 percent in light of the problems in Europe , officials said Sunday . A downward adjustment would track similar revisions at international institutions and local think tanks , where the consensus now stands at between 3 . 6 and 3 . 8 percent . “ The changing trends in the global economy will be reflected , ” said an official at the Finance Ministry . The ministry is widely expected to scale down its economic outlook due Dec . 12 . The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Nov . 28 lowered its 2011 forecast for Korea to 3 . 7 percent , down 0 . 9 percentage point from 4 . 6 percent . Samsung Economic Research Institute predicted 3 . 6 percent and cited Europe ’ s ability to produce a solution to their debt crisis as the biggest variable to Korea ’ s performance next year . Asia ’ s fourth - largest economy grew 6 . 2 percent in 2010 , posting one of the fastest recoveries following the financial crisis . The pace slowed to 3 . 8 percent on - year in the first half of this year and down further to 3 . 4 percent in the July - September period . Exports , making up half of the country ’ s output , grew at the slowest pace in two years in November , gaining 8 percent . Finance Minister Bahk Jae - wan has already hinted that Seoul may lower its projection soon , saying on Nov . 21 that the Finance Ministry would factor in the cut in the state - run Korea Development Institute ’ s projection . “ I understand that the KDI scaled down its growth forecast to 3 . 8 percent , rightfully so as economic momentum slows . There could be more than one way of projecting how the economy will perform and we ’ ll take that into account , ” Bahk said after a finance forum in Seoul . KDI on Nov . 20 slashed its 2012 outlook to 3 . 8 percent from 4 . 3 percent . Bahk , in the same week , said that the economy would regain its growth momentum in the second half of next year when external uncertainties clear up in Europe . By Cynthia J . Kim ( cynthiak @ heraldm . com )