Which raids do you run ? Or if you don ' t want to reveal your secrets , which expansion ? <| sep |> A standard deck of 52 cards is thoroughly shuffled . The deck contains two black aces . We ' re going to go through the shuffled deck one card at a time , and keep track of when we see the first black ace and when we see the second black ace . You ' re trying to predict when we will see the first black ace . You have one guess for the position of the first black ace . What position should you guess ? <| sep |> Ok then . But we know that DD is Ezra , so let ' s start working on our plan . <| sep |> Go Team Nebula ! After gaining 0 . 8 lbs on last weeks weighin meh , I ' m down 4 . 6 lbs this week yay ! Only 2 lbs away from my challenge goal , but as December has some food surprises left , it ' s better to have a head start into this challenge .