Is that a joke or are you just that simple minded ? <| sep |> If Jessica voted for Hannah , she would have 100 % lost the game and become a goat at the absolute maximum . She would burn 4 jury votes instantly . If an opposing alliance is willing to go to rocks , then they won ' t respect you either if you flip like Cochran . By going to rocks , she had a 50 % chance of being in the majority alliance , a 33 % chance of being in the minority , and a 17 % chance of pulling the black rock . Overall , she took a calculated risk that didn ' t pay off , but it was a necessary risk . <| sep |> To counter your point though , take the winter upgrades last year as an example , almost all of those players peaked in price before the upgrade was released as everyone was wanting to invest in them , then when the upgrade was out all the investors sold off and the prices plummeted . This shows that a significant number of people were aware of upcoming upgrades and prepared to act on that information , so why would it be different for this situation ? If anything Black friday is even more predictable .