TOKYO ― Historic transformations often happen when least expected . Mikhail Gorbachev ’ s liberalizing policies of glasnost and perestroika in the Soviet Union emerged at one of the Cold War ’ s darkest hours , with U . S . President Ronald Reagan pushing for strategic missile defense and the two sides fighting proxy wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere . Deng Xiaoping ’ s economic opening followed China ’ s bloody ― and failed ― invasion of Vietnam in 1978 . And South Africa ’ s last apartheid leader , F . W . de Klerk , was initially perceived as just another apologist for the system ― hardly the man to free Nelson Mandela and oversee the end of white minority rule . Now the world is suddenly asking whether Burma ( Myanmar ) , after six decades of military dictatorship , has embarked on a genuine political transition that could end the country ’ s pariah status . Is Burma , like South Africa under de Klerk , truly poised to emerge from a half - century of self - imposed isolation ? And can Aung San Suu Kyi , the heroic opposition leader , and Thein Sein , Burma ’ s new president , engineer a political transition as skillfully and peacefully as Mandela and de Klerk did for South Africa in the early 1990 s ? Despite her two decades of house arrest and isolation , Suu Kyi possesses two of the gifts that enabled Mandela to carry out his great task : a reassuring serenity and an utter lack of vindictiveness . As Burma ’ s authorities test reform , these gifts , together with her negotiating skills and , most of all , her vast moral authority , will be tested as never before . Moreover , unlike Mandela during his 27 - year imprisonment , Suu Kyi has had her hopes raised ― and dashed ― before . In the mid - 1990 s , and again in 2002 - 03 , reconciliation between Suu Kyi ’ s National League for Democracy ( NLD ) and the military junta seemed to be in the offing . On both occasions , however , the regime ’ s hardliners gained the upper hand , crushing prospects for reform . Yet Suu Kyi , and much of the Burmese opposition , is beginning to admit that today ’ s political liberalization might be the real thing . Because Burma ’ s generals say almost nothing in public , it is difficult to fathom why they allowed elections that elevated Thein Sein to power , or to explain their willingness to embrace dialogue with the long - suppressed opposition . Recent events suggest one possible explanation : Burma ’ s rulers have grown wary of China ’ s almost smothering embrace ― a result of the country ’ s international isolation . Indeed , public protests against China ’ s commercial exploitation of Burma ’ s natural resources became so widespread that the government called a halt to construction by Chinese investors on the huge and environmentally damaging Myitsone Dam on the Irrawaddy River . Thein Sein ’ s decision to halt the project is clearly an important policy shift . It is also a signal to the outside world that Burma ’ s new government may be much more willing than any of its predecessors to heed both public pressure and international opinion , both of which vehemently opposed the dam ’ s construction . Almost simultaneously , Thein Sein offered even stronger signals that his was a very different Burmese administration : he freed political prisoners and invited Suu Kyi for direct talks with him . Indeed , Suu Kyi now enjoys far greater freedom of movement than she has at any time since she received the Nobel Peace Prize 20 years ago , and the NLD recently announced that it will field candidates in the forthcoming by - elections to the country ’ s newly established parliament . If Suu Kyi is permitted to campaign free of restraint , for both her own seat and to boost the electoral chances of her NLD colleagues , it will be clear that Thein Sein and his government are truly determined to bring their country in from the cold . For both Suu Kyi and Thein Sein , every step from now on will be delicate , to be calibrated with the same care and deliberation that Mandela and de Klerk used in bridging their differences and leading their country out of isolation . But the international community , too , must act with great care . While Thein Sein would undoubtedly wish to see the myriad economic and political sanctions imposed on Burma quickly lifted , it is too soon for a general easing of such measures . But the outside world should demonstrate that every clear move toward greater political openness will merit more international political and economic engagement . The Japan Investment Bank ’ s decision to invest in port development in Burma ― essential if the economy , too , is to be opened ― is one positive sign that the world will keep pace with Thein Sein step for step . U . S . Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ’ s recent meet with Thein Sein was another clear sign that the world is ready to end the country ’ s isolation . Closer to home , ASEAN ’ s recent decision to give Burma a chance to chair the organization in 2014 underscores its neighbors ’ desire for the country ’ s full participation in Asia ’ s growing prosperity . No one should rush to judgment yet , but Thein Sein ’ s decisions , at least so far , are beginning to resemble those of South Africa ’ s de Klerk when he initiated his country ’ s reform process . Fortunately , Burma already has in Aung San Suu Kyi its very own Nelson Mandela . By Yuriko Koike Yuriko Koike is Japan ’ s former minister of defense and national security adviser . ― Ed . ( Project Syndicate )