State of Fear by Michael Crichton EN ROUTEWEDNESDAY , OCTOBER 134 : 10 P . M . Sarah felt relieved when Jennifer Haynes went to the front of the cabin to take a nap , falling instantly asleep . But she found it awkward to have Ann and Ted onboard . Conversation in the cabin was stilted ; Kenner was not saying much . Ted was drinking heavily . He said to Ann , “ Just so you know , Mr . Kenner doesn ’ t believe in anything that normal people believe in . Not even global warming . Or Kyoto . ” “ Of course he doesn ’ t believe in Kyoto , ” Ann said . “ He ’ s an industry hit man . Representing coal and oil interests . ” Kenner said nothing . He just handed her his card . “ Institute for Risk Analysis , ” Ann read aloud . “ That ’ s a new one . I ’ ll add it to the list of phony right - wing fronts . ” Kenner said nothing . “ Because it ’ s all disinformation , ” Ann said . “ The studies , the press releases , the flyers , websites , the organized campaigns , the big - money smears . Let me tell you , industry was thrilled when the US didn ’ t sign Kyoto . ” Kenner rubbed his chin , and said nothing . Ann said , “ We ’ re the world ’ s largest polluter , and our government doesn ’ t give a damn . ” Kenner smiled blandly . “ So now the United States is an international pariah , isolated from the rest of the world and justifiably despised because we failed to sign the Kyoto Protocol to attack a global problem . ” She continued to goad him in this way , and finally , it seemed , he had had enough . “ Tell me about Kyoto , Ann , ” he said . “ Why should we have signed it ? ” “ Why ? Because we have a moral obligation to join the rest of the civilized world in reducing carbon emissions to below 1990 levels . ” “ What effect would that treaty have ? ” “ The whole world knows that . It would reduce global temperatures in the year 2100 . ” “ By how much ? ” “ I don ’ t know what you ’ re driving at . ” “ Don ’ t you ? The answer is well known . The effect of Kyoto would be to reduce warming by . 04 degrees Celsius in the year 2100 . Four hundredths of a degree . Do you dispute that outcome ? ” “ I certainly do . Four what ? Hundredths of a degree ? That ’ s ridiculous . ” “ So you don ’ t believe that would be the effect of the Kyoto Protocol ? ” “ Well , maybe because the United States didn ’ t sign it —”“ No , that would be the effect if we did sign it . Four hundredths of a degree . ” “ No , ” she said , shaking her head . “ I don ’ t believe that ’ s true . ” “ The figure has been published a number of times in scientific journals . I can give you the references . ”* Raising his glass , Bradley said to Ann , “ This guy is real big on references . ” “ As opposed to rhetoric , ” Kenner said , nodding . “ Yes . I am . ” Bradley belched . “ Four hundredths of a degree ? In a hundred years ? What a bunch of bullshit . ” “ One could say so . ” “ I just did , ” Bradley said . “ But Kyoto ’ s a first step , ” Ann said , “ that ’ s the point . Because if you believe in the precautionary principle , as I do —”“ I didn ’ t think the purpose of Kyoto was to take a first step , ” Kenner said . “ I thought the purpose was to reduce global warming . ” “ Well , it is . ” “ Then why make a treaty that won ’ t accomplish that ? That won ’ t , in effect , do anything at all ? ” “ It ’ s a first step , as I said . ” “ Tell me : do you think it ’ s possible to reduce carbon dioxide ? ” “ Of course . There are a host of alternative energy sources just waiting to be adopted . Wind power , solar , waste , geothermal —”“ Tom Wigley and a panel of seventeen scientists and engineers from around the world made a careful study and concluded it is not possible . Their paper was published in Science . They said there is no known technology capable of reducing carbon emissions , or even holding them to levels many times higher than today . They conclude that wind , solar , and even nuclear power will not be sufficient to solve the problem . They say totally new and undiscovered technology is required . ”*“ That ’ s crazy , ” Ann said . “ Amory Lovins laid it all out twenty years ago . Wind and solar , conservation , energy efficiency . There ’ s no problem . ” “ Apparently there is . Lovins predicted that thirty - five percent of US power would come from alternative energy by the year 2000 . The actual figure turned out to be six percent . ” “ Not enough subsidies . ” “ No country in the world produces thirty - five percent renewable energy , Ann . ” “ But countries like Japan do much better than we do . ” Kenner said , “ Japan is five percent renewable . Germany is five percent . England two percent . ” “ Denmark . ” “ Eight percent . ” “ Well , ” she said , “ it just means we have more work to do . ” “ No question about that . Wind farms chop birds to pieces , so they might not be so popular . But solar panels would work . Silent , efficient … ” “ Solar is great , ” she said . “ Yes , ” Kenner said . “ And all we need is about twenty - seven thousand square kilometers of panels to do the job . Just cover the state of Massachusetts with solar panels and we ’ d be done . Of course by 2050 our energy needs will triple , so maybe New York would be a better choice . ” “ Or Texas . Nobody I know cares about Texas , ” Ann said . “ Well , there you are , ” Kenner said . “ Cover ten percent of Texas , and you ’ re in business . Although , ” he added , “ Texans would probably prefer to cover Los Angeles first . ” “ You ’ re making a joke . ” “ Not at all . Let ’ s settle on Nevada . It ’ s all desert anyway . But I ’ m curious to hear about your personal experience with alternative energy . What about you yourself , Ann ? Have you adopted alternative sources ? ” “ Yes . I have solar heating for my swimming pool . The maid drives a hybrid . ” “ What do you drive ? ” “ Well , I need a bigger car for the kids . ” “ How big ? ” “ Well , I drive an SUV . Sometimes . ” “ What about your residence ? You have solar panels for your electricity ? ” “ Well , I had consultants come to the house . only , Jerry — my husband — says it ’ s too expensive to install . But I ’ m working on him . ” “ And your appliances … ” “ Every single one is Energystar . Every one . ” “ That ’ s good . And how large is your family ? ” “ I have two boys . Seven and nine . ” “ Wonderful . How big is your house ? ” “ I don ’ t know exactly . ” “ How many square feet ? ” She hesitated . “ Ah hell , tell him , Ann , ” Bradley said . “ She has a huge fucking house . Must be ten , fifteen thousand square feet . Absolutely beautiful . And the grounds ! Got to be an acre , acre and a half . Sprinklers going day and night . And such gorgeous landscaping — she has fund - raisers there all the time . Always wonderful events . ” Kenner looked at her . “ Twelve thousand , ” Ann said . “ Square feet . ” “ For four people ? ” Kenner said . “ Well , my mother - in - law lives with us , sometimes . And of course the maid in the back . ” “ And do you have a second home ? ” Kenner said . “ Shit , she ’ s got two , ” Bradley said . “ Got a fabulous place in Aspen , and a great house in Maine as well . ” “ That we inherited , ” Ann said . “ My husband —”“ And that apartment in London , ” Bradley said , “ is that yours or your husband ’ s company or what ? ” “ The company . ” Kenner said , “ How about travel ? You use private jets ? ” “ Well , I mean we don ’ t own one , but we catch rides , whatever . We go when people are going anyway . We fill the plane up . Which is a good thing . ” “ Of course , ” Kenner said . “ But I must admit I ’ m a little confused about the philosophy —”“ Hey , ” she said , suddenly angry . “ I live in a milieu where I have to keep up a certain standard . It ’ s necessary for my husband ’ s business , and — anyway , where do you live ? ” “ I have an apartment in Cambridge . ” “ How big ? ” “ Nine hundred square feet . I do not own a car . I fly coach . ” “ I don ’ t believe you , ” she said . “ I think you ’ d better , ” Bradley said . “ This guy knows what he ’ s —”“ Shut up , Ted , ” Ann said . “ You ’ re drunk . ” “ Not yet , I ’ m not , ” he said , looking wounded . “ I ’ m not judging you , Ann , ” Kenner said quietly . “ I know you ’ re a dedicated advocate . I ’ m just trying to figure out what your real position is on the environment . ” “ My position is human beings are heating the planet and poisoning the planet and we have a moral obligation to the biosphere — to all the plants and animals that are being destroyed , and to the unborn generations of human beings — to keep these catastrophic changes from taking place . ” She sat back , nodding her head . “ So our moral obligation is to others — other plants , animals , and other people . ” “ Exactly . ” “ We need to do what is in their interest ? ” “ What is in the interest of all of us . ” “ Conceivably their interest is not the same as ours . Conflict of interest is the usual case . ” “ Every creature has a right to live on the planet . ” “ Surely you don ’ t believe that , ” Kenner said . “ I do . I ’ m not speciesist . Every living creature . ” “ Even the malaria parasite ? ” “ Well , it is part of nature . ” “ Then do you oppose the elimination of polio and smallpox ? They were part of nature , too . ” “ Well , I would have to say it ’ s part of the arrogant pattern of mankind , changing the world to suit his purposes . A testosterone - driven impulse , not shared by women —”“ You didn ’ t answer me , ” Kenner said . “ Do you oppose the elimination of polio and smallpox ? ” “ You ’ re playing with words . ” “ Hardly . Is changing the world to suit one ’ s purposes unnatural ? ” “ Of course . It is interfering with nature . ” “ Ever seen a termite mound ? A beaver dam ? Those creatures change the environment dramatically , affecting many other creatures . Are they interfering with nature ? ” “ The world is not in danger , ” she said , “ from termite mounds . ” “ Arguably it is . The total weight of termites exceeds the total weight of all the humans in the world . A thousand times greater , in fact . Do you know how much methane termites produce ? And methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide . ” “ I can ’ t continue this , ” Ann said . “ You enjoy arguing . I don ’ t . I just want to make the world a better place . I ’ m going to go read a magazine now . ” She went to the front of the plane and sat down , her back to Kenner . Sarah stayed where she was . “ Her intentions are good , ” she said . “ And her information is bad , ” Kenner said . “ A prescription for disaster . ” Ted Bradley roused himself . He had watched the debate between Kenner and Ann . He liked Ann . He was pretty sure he had gone to bed with her ; when he was drinking , he sometimes couldn ’ t remember , but he had a vaguely fond memory of Ann , and he assumed that was the reason for it . “ I think you ’ re being harsh , ” Bradley said , in his presidential tone . “ Why should you call someone like Ann ‘ a prescription for disaster ? ’ She cares very much about these issues . She has devoted her life to them , really . She cares . ” “ So what ? ” Kenner said . “ Caring is irrelevant . Desire to do good is irrelevant . All that counts is knowledge and results . She doesn ’ t have the knowledge — and , worse , she doesn ’ t know it . Human beings don ’ t know how to do the things she believes ought to be done . ” “ Like what ? ” “ Like managing the environment . We don ’ t know how to do that . ” “ What are you talking about ? ” Bradley said , throwing his hands in the air . “ This is nonsense . Of course we can manage the environment . ” “ Really ? Do you know anything about the history of Yellowstone Park ? The first national park ? ” “ I ’ ve been there . ” “ That ’ s not what I asked . ” “ Could you just get to the point ? ” Bradley said . “ It ’ s pretty late for Q - and - A , Professor . You know what I mean ? ” “ All right , then , ” Kenner said . “ I ’ ll tell you . ” Yellowstone Park , he explained , was the first wilderness to be set aside as a natural preserve anywhere in the world . The region around the Yellowstone River in Wyoming had long been recognized for its wondrous scenic beauty . Lewis and Clark sang its praises . Artists like Bierstadt and Moran painted it . And the new Northern Pacific Railroad wanted a scenic attraction to draw tourists west . So in 1872 , in part because of railroad pressure , President Ulysses Grant set aside two million acres and created Yellowstone National Park . There was only one problem , unacknowledged then and later . No one had any experience trying to preserve wilderness . There had never been any need to do it before . And it was assumed to be much easier than it proved to be . When Theodore Roosevelt visited the park in 1903 , he saw a landscape teeming with game . There were thousands of elk , buffalo , black bear , deer , mountain lions , grizzlies , coyotes , wolves , and bighorn sheep . By that time there were rules in place to keep things as they were . Soon after that , the Park Service was formed , a new bureaucracy whose sole job was to maintain the park in its original condition . Yet within ten years , the teeming landscape that Roosevelt saw was gone forever . And the reason for this was the park managers — charged with keeping the park in pristine condition — had taken a series of steps that they thought were in the best interest of preserving the park and its animals . But they were wrong . “ Well , ” Bradley said , “ our knowledge has increased with time … ” “ No , it hasn ’ t , ” Kenner said . “ That ’ s my point . It ’ s a perpetual claim that we know more today , and it ’ s not borne out by what actually happened . ” Which was this : the early park managers mistakenly believed that elk were about to become extinct . So they tried to increase the elk herds within the park by eliminating predators . To that end , they shot and poisoned all the wolves in the park . And they prohibited Indians from hunting in the park , though Yellowstone was a traditional hunting ground . Protected , the elk herds exploded , and ate so much of certain trees and grasses that the ecology of the area began to change . The elk ate the trees that the beavers used to make dams , so the beavers vanished . That was when the managers discovered beavers were vital to the overall water management of the region . When the beavers disappeared , the meadows dried up ; the trout and otter vanished ; soil erosion increased ; and the park ecology changed even further . By the 1920 s it had become abundantly clear there were too many elk , so the rangers began to shoot them by the thousands . But the change in plant ecology seemed to be permanent ; the old mix of trees and grasses did not return . It also became increasingly clear that the Indian hunters of old had exerted a valuable ecological influence on the park lands by keeping down the numbers of elk , moose , and bison . This belated recognition came as part of a more general understanding that native Americans had strongly shaped the “ untouched wilderness ” that the first white men saw — or thought they were seeing — when they first arrived in the New World . The “ untouched wilderness ” was nothing of the sort . Human beings on the North American continent had exerted a huge influence on the environment for thousands of years — burning plains grasses , modifying forests , thinning specific animal populations , and hunting others to extinction . In retrospect , the rule forbidding Indians from hunting was seen as a mistake . But it was just one of many mistakes that continued to be made in an unbroken stream by park managers . Grizzlies were protected , then killed off . Wolves were killed off , then brought back . Animal research involving field study and radio collars was halted , then resumed after certain species were declared endangered . A policy of fire prevention was instituted , with no understanding of the regenerative effects of fire . When the policy was finally reversed , thousands of acres burned so hotly that the ground was sterilized , and the forests did not grow back without reseeding . Rainbow trout were introduced in the 1970 s , soon killing off the native cutthroat species . And on and on . And on . “ So what you have , ” Kenner said , “ is a history of ignorant , incompetent , and disastrously intrusive intervention , followed by attempts to repair the intervention , followed by attempts to repair the damage caused by the repairs , as dramatic as any oil spill or toxic dump . Except in this case there is no evil corporation or fossil fuel economy to blame . This disaster was caused by environmentalists charged with protecting the wilderness , who made one dreadful mistake after another — and , along the way , proved how little they understood the environment they intended to protect . ” “ This is absurd , ” Bradley said . “ To preserve a wilderness , you just preserve it . You leave it alone and let the balance of nature take over . That ’ s all that is required . ” “ Absolutely wrong , ” Kenner said . “ Passive protection — leaving things alone — doesn ’ t preserve the status quo in a wilderness , any more than it does in your backyard . The world is alive , Ted . Things are constantly in flux . Species are winning , losing , rising , falling , taking over , being pushed back . Merely setting aside wilderness doesn ’ t freeze it in its present state , any more than locking your children in a room will prevent them from growing up . Ours is a changing world , and if you want to preserve a piece of land in a particular state , you have to decide what that state is , and then actively , even aggressively , manage it . ” “ But you said we don ’ t know how to do that . ” “ Correct . We don ’ t . Because any action you take causes change in the environment , Ted . And any change hurts some plant or animal . It ’ s inevitable . Preserving old - growth forest to help the spotted owl means Kirtland ’ s warbler and other species are deprived of the new - growth forest they prefer . There is no free lunch . ” “ But —”“ No buts , Ted . Name an action that had only positive consequences . ” “ Okay , I will . Banning CFCs for the ozone layer . ” “ That harmed Third World people by eliminating cheap refrigerants so that their food spoiled more often and more of them died of food poisoning . ” “ But the ozone layer is more important —”“ Perhaps to you . They might disagree . But we ’ re talking about whether you can take an action that does not have harmful consequences . ” “ Okay . Solar panels . Water recycling systems for houses . ” “ Enables people to put houses in remote wilderness areas where formerly they could not because of lack of water and power . Invades wilderness and thus endangers species that were previously unmolested . ” “ Banning DDT . ” “ Arguably the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century . DDT was the best agent against mosquitoes , and despite the rhetoric there was nothing anywhere near as good or as safe . Since the ban , two million people a year have died unnecessarily from malaria , mostly children . All together , the ban has caused more than fifty million needless deaths . * Banning DDT killed more people than Hitler , Ted . And the environmental movement pushed hard for it . ”†“ But DDT was a carcinogen . ” “ No , it wasn ’ t . And everybody knew it at the time of the ban . ”†“ It was unsafe . ” “ Actually , it was so safe you could eat it . People did just that for two years , in one experiment . * After the ban , it was replaced by parathion , which is really unsafe . More than a hundred farm workers died in the months after the DDT ban , because they were unaccustomed to handling really toxic pesticides . ”†“ We disagree about all this . ” “ Only because you lack the relevant facts , or are unwilling to face up to the consequences of the actions of organizations you support . Banning DDT will someday be seen as a scandalous blunder . ” “ DDT was never banned . ” “ You ’ re right . Countries were just told that if they used it , they wouldn ’ t get foreign aid . ” Kenner shook his head . “ But the unarguable point , based on UN statistics , is that before the DDT ban , malaria had become almost a minor illness . Fifty thousand deaths a year worldwide . A few years later , it was once again a global scourge . Fifty million people have died since the ban , Ted . once again , there can be no action without harm . ” A long silence followed . Ted shifted in his seat , started to speak , then closed his mouth again . Finally he said , “ Okay . Fine . ” He adopted his most lofty , presidential manner . “ You have persuaded me . I grant you the point . So ? ” “ So the real question with any environmental action is , do the benefits outweigh the harm ? Because there is always harm . ” “ Okay , okay . So ? ” “ When do you hear any environmental group speak that way ? Never . They ’ re all absolutists . They go before judges arguing that regulations should be imposed with no consideration of costs at all . ‡ The requirement that regulations show a cost - benefit was imposed on them by the courts after a period of wretched excess . Environmentalists screamed bloody murder about cost - benefit requirements and they ’ re still screaming . They don ’ t want people to know how much their forays into regulation actually cost society and the world . The most egregious example was the benzene regulations in the late 1980 s that were so expensive for so little benefit that they ended up costing twenty billion dollars for every year of life saved . * Do you agree with that regulation ? ” “ Well , when you put it in those terms , no . ” “ What other terms are there , Ted , besides the truth ? Twenty billion dollars to save one year of life . That was the cost of the regulation . Should you support organizations that push for such wasteful regulation ? ” “ No . ” “ The lead benzene lobbying group in Congress was NERF . Are you going to resign from its board ? ” “ Of course not . ” Kenner just nodded slowly . “ And there we have it . ” Sanjong was pointing to the computer screen , and Kenner came over , sliding into the seat next to him . The screen showed an aerial image of a tropical island , heavily forested , and a broad curving bay of blue water . The photo seemed to be taken from a low - flying airplane . Around the bay were four weathered wood shacks . “ Those are new , ” Sanjong said . “ They went up in the last twenty - four hours . ” “ They look old . ” “ Yes , but they ’ re not . Close inspection suggests that they are artificial . They may be made out of plastic instead of wood . The largest one appears to be a residence , and the other three house equipment . ” “ What kind of equipment ? ” Kenner said . “ Nothing has been visible in the photographs . The equipment was probably offloaded at night . But I went back and got a decent description from Hong Kong customs . The equipment consists of three hypersonic cavitation generators . Mounted in carbon matrix resonant impact assembly frames . ” “ Hypersonic cavitation equipment is for sale ? ” “ They got it . I don ’ t know how . ” Kenner and Sanjong were huddled together , speaking in low tones . Evans drifted over , leaned in close . “ What ’ s a hypersonic whatever - it - is ? ” he said quietly . “ Cavitation generator , ” Kenner said . “ It ’ s a high - energy acoustic device the size of a small truck that produces a radially symmetric cavitation field . ” Evans looked blank . “ Cavitation , ” Sanjong explained , “ refers to the formation of bubbles in a substance . When you boil water , that ’ s cavitation . You can boil water with sound , too , but in this case the generators are designed to induce cavitation fields in a solid . ” Evans said , “ What solid ? ” “ The earth , ” Kenner said . “ I don ’ t get it , ” Evans said . “ They ’ re going to make bubbles in the ground , like boiling water ? ” “ Something like that , yes . ” “ Why ? ” They were interrupted by the arrival of Ann Garner . “ Is this a boys - only meeting ? ” she said . “ Or can anyone sit in ? ” “ Of course , ” Sanjong said , tapping the keyboard . The screen showed a dense array of graphs . “ We were just reviewing the carbon dioxide levels of ice cores taken from Vostok and from North GRIP in Greenland . ” “ You guys can ’ t keep me in the dark forever , you know , ” Ann said . “ Sooner or later we will land this plane . And then I ’ m going to find out what you ’ re really up to . ” “ That ’ s true , ” Kenner said . “ Why not tell me now ? ” Kenner just shook his head . The pilot clicked the radio . “ Check your seat belts , please , ” he said . “ Prepare for landing in Honolulu . ” Ann said , “ Honolulu ! ” “ Where did you think we were going ? ” “ I thought —” And then she broke off . Sarah thought : She knows where we are going .