WASHINGTON ― In the late 1950 s , the famous nuclear strategist Herman Kahn facetiously suggested building what he called a “ Doomsday Machine . ” A computer would be wired to detonate a vast array of nuclear bombs if the Soviet Union took an action defined as intolerable . Kahn was joking . The point of his black humor was that official U . S . nuclear strategy was as crazy as his Doomsday Machine , in that it posited a war from which there was no rational escape . The alternative , wrote Fred Kaplan in his book “ The Wizards of Armageddon , ” was finding strategies short of all - out annihilation . Indeed , Kahn proposed 44 different “ rungs of escalation , ” including such stages as “ ostensible crisis , ” “ barely nuclear war , ” and “ local nuclear war . ” These old books about nuclear strategy are oddly useful this week in considering Washington ’ s looming political catastrophe . House Republicans have put the country on a doomsday path toward financial default . If the two sides can ’ t find a way off their ladder of escalation , they will soon reach a point of “ assured destruction ” in global financial markets . The fact that it will be the Republicans ’ fault will be little consolation to the Democrats as they try to clear the wreckage . This impending debt - ceiling crackup finally seems to have roused the attention of both sides so that they are at least talking about negotiations . That ’ s a change from the first week of the shutdown , when House Republicans were still giddy with their self - destructive power and the Democrats seemed happy to let them commit political suicide . One of my favorite books about strategy is a thin volume called “ Every War Must End , ” by Fred Ikle . It was published in 1971 when the U . S . was still trying to resolve the Vietnam War on acceptable terms . Ikle ’ s theme was that leaders often start wars without a clear idea of how to finish them . World War I was basically a mistake . “ The major European powers misjudged how their mobilization schemes would interact , ” wrote Ikle . But they couldn ’ t escape the lockstep process of escalation , and then fought on , hoping for victories that would justify the terrible cost . All sides would ’ ve been better off if they could have found a settlement quickly , but they didn ’ t know how . Japan ’ s attack on America in 1941 was folly , yet it proceeded to the grimmest result : Three months before Pearl Harbor , the Japanese emperor asked how long it would take to defeat the United States . The army chief told him that the war would be over in three months . Other Japanese knew better . The navy chief warned : “ Even if our Empire should win a decisive naval victory , we will not thereby be able to bring the war to a conclusion . ” Unwilling to admit their colossal error and sue for peace , the Japanese military staggered on . The United States decided that the Japanese political system couldn ’ t surrender , and that the only way end the war was to use nuclear weapons . Let ’ s return to the current Washington political war . It seems fair to say that House Speaker John Boehner embarked on an unwinnable campaign without a clear conception of the endgame . This has left President Obama and the Democrats with the dilemma of whether to let the tea party Republicans take the country over the cliff to default ― and thereby discredit themselves . That ’ s a strategy for total victory ― a bet that the tea party would be so damaged by forcing default that its hold on the GOP would be broken ― but such epochal triumphs rarely happen . A more modest Democratic strategy would be to allow the House Republicans to save face enough to reach a compromise . Imagine a Versailles peace treaty in 1915 , instead of 1919 . Obama could offer confidence - building measures , such as pledging deficit - reduction measures , to convince Boehner to stop his threats . Next could come a “ grand bargain ” reforming entitlement programs . Such a deal might actually leave the country better off . Traditional societies where wars are frequent , such as the Pashtun - speaking tribal areas of Pakistan , have elaborate rituals for the face - saving process that ends wars . A losing fighter will sometimes put grass in his mouth , humbling himself like a field animal , and come into the house of his adversary ― where the victor is obliged to offer hospitality and respect that make reconciliation possible . Obama seems to have won the political argument ; the whole country can see that the tea party is behaving irrationally . But now Obama needs to help Boehner turn off the Doomsday Machine . Better a little grass in the mouth for both sides than financial default . 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