So after I made this chart I realized 2 land hands are quite common , even more than 4 land hands . So the question I asked myself wasDo we mulligan a 2 lander ? Assume that we have a 40 card deck with 17 lands . Your opening 7 A typical good starting hand in will have 3 or 4 lands in it . We will virtually never mulligan a 3 or 4 lander , which means , that with 17 lands in a 40 card deck we will keep 55 % 32 , 2 % 3 landers and 22 , 6 % 4 landers of our opening hands without further deliberation . 5 landers are relatively rare , happening only about 8 , 4 % of the time and depending on the two spells we may or may not mulligan . Personally I tend to keep 5 landers although I ' m not sure it ' s correct . A 6 or 7 landers happen a mere 1 , 6 % of the time and these are also almost automatically a mulligan , 7 lander being a curiosity as a 1 in a 1000 occurence . A 0 or 1 lander hand will happen 10 , 5 % of the time and will almost always be a mulligan . This post will concentrate on the relatively common scenario of drawing a 2 land hand . In the 40 card deck with 17 lands , that will happen 24 , 5 % of the time which is actually more often than a 4 lander or about 1 in 4 , so it is very important that we give this common scenario some consideration . When we have a hand with 5 spells and 2 lands , the top priority for most players will be to draw additional land within the first few draws . Let ' s do the math . Probability that 1 st draw is a land 1533 45 , 5 % Probability that 1 st draw is not a land 1833 54 , 5 % Probability that 2 nd draw is land , if the first is not 18331532 25 , 5 % Probability that 2 nd draw is not land , if the first is not either 1833 1732 29 , 0 % Probability that 3 rd draw is land , if the first two is not 1833 1732 1531 14 , 0 % Probability that 3 rd draw is not land , if the first two is not either 1833 1732 1631 15 , 0 % We can obviously keep doing this kind of calculations for further draws , but lets stop here . This tells us that On the play we miss our third land drop 29 % of the time disregarding tutors On the draw we miss our third land drop 15 % of the time disregarding tutors So should we mulligan ? As always it depends . In the specific situation on the 5 spells in hand , but in general it depends on how well your deck functions on 2 mana . This is why the importance of good 2 drops can ' t be emphasized enough . In a deck with few 2 drops , you will have to mulligan a 2 lander a lot . In a deck that functions well on 2 mana , you might decide that the 29 % 15 % playdraw risk of missing you 3 rd land drop is worth taking . There is no hard and fast rules of when to mulligan a 2 lander or not , but doing the math lets you make more informed decision about when and why to mulligan and also on a more general level , how to build your deck . The first mulliganSo you have to mulligan . You send back seven and draw six . You look at 2 lands and 4 spells . When you mulligan to 6 with a 17 land deck this actually happens 31 , 4 % of the time . It will usually take an exceptionally bad hand to even consider going to 5 cards , especially if the opponent has kept 7 . Being down a card is obviously a disadvantage and missing the third land drop would only compound that into what could be an unsurmountable disadvantage . The Vancouver mulligan allows us to scry 1 before starting the game , so how does that affect our chances of making the 3 land drop on time ? The probability of getting a land off the top is 1534 44 , 1 %. I assume we will almost always leave the land on top . So 55 , 9 % of the time we scry a spell to the bottom of the library . How likely are we to make our 3 land drop on time now ? Assuming we scry a spell to the bottomProbability that 1 st draw is a land 1533 45 , 5 % Probability that 1 st draw is not a land 1833 54 , 5 % Probability that 2 nd draw is a land , if the first is not 18331532 25 , 6 % Probability that 2 nd draw is not a land if the first is not either 18331732 29 , 0 % Probability that 3 rd draw is land , if the first two is not 1833 1732 1531 14 , 0 % Probability that 3 rd draw is not land , if the first two is not either 1833 1732 1631 15 , 0 % As you will probably notice , these probabilities are the same as the ones I listed for a 7 card hand with 2 lands after we scryed a spell to the bottom . This means , when we mulligan into 2 lands and 2 spells and scry then 45 , 5 % of the time we see a land on the top of our library . When we scry a spell to the bottom , then On the play , we miss our third land drop 29 % of the time On the draw we miss our third land drop 15 % of the time . So before we scry , we have On the play a 44 , 1 % 55 , 9 % 71 % 83 , 8 % chance of hitting our third land drop On the draw a 44 , 1 % 55 , 9 % 85 % 91 , 6 % chance of hitting our third land drop So should we mulligan a 2 lander to 5 ? I ' d say almost never if the hand has at least 3 drop or a decent chance to draw 3 cmc or lower spell . Deck buildingSo what should a typical 17 land deck look like ? We know that 1 in 4 hands will be a 2 lander , 1 in 8 will be an mulligan always and only about a little more than half of our hands will be easy keeps . I ' m no expert deck builder nor am I even more than a mediocre , albeit enthusiastic , player , so I won ' t say too much about how to build your deck , but just leave it up to you to make your own conclusions based on the numbers . Using these numbers it has at least to me become clear that a good curve simply must have a decent number of 2 drops in order to mitigate the risk of keeping a 2 lander . 1 in 4 hands will be a 2 lander . A deck with a decent amount of 2 drops will have to take fewer chances with 2 landers . Missing the third land drop will always be a major set back in the phase of the game where tempo is must crucial , but being able to at least play out something will give you a chance to get back should you hit land on turn 4 .