Experts say Seoul needs clearer stance on dealing with NorthKim Yo - jong , sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong - un ( Yonhap ) North Korea on Tuesday cut all inter - Korean communication channels in what it called the first step in exacting the price of betrayal by South Korea . In addition to the move -- the seventh of its kind since 1976 -- the North ’ s official media reported that Pyongyang ’ s leaders have already reviewed phased plans for “ projects against the enemy ” saying that all activities concerning the South will now be hostile . The North has officially blamed leaflets sent by South Korean civic groups , but five experts specializing in inter - Korean relations and defense issues say the North , driven by multiple motivations , is likely planning a number of provocations in its ultimate goal of influencing the US . The North ’ s motivation There are likely multiple motives and aims behind the move , but a common element is that the North is hoping for greater changes in pressuring Seoul -- a move it considers to have little risk , experts told The Korea Herald . “ In the short term ( the aim ) is to put an end to the leaflets , and tame the South . The long - term goal is to move the US to gain easing of sanctions , ” said Shin Beom - chul , director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy . He was echoed by Korea Defense and Security Forum senior analyst Shin Jong - woo , who says that the North is pressuring Seoul to persuade Washington in its drive to gain economic aid and sanctions relief . According to Sejong Institute ’ s Center for North Korean Studies Director Cheong Seong - chang , the North is likely to be driven by its assessment that it has nothing to lose in inter - Korean relations . “ They consider that ( South Korea ’ s ) Moon Jae - in administration neglected the issue ( of anti - North Korean leaflets ) , and prompted the North to conclude that they can expect nothing from the administration , ” Cheong said .   Experts discuss the ramifications of North Korea ' s latest push to disconnect all inter - Korean communication channels . Military provocationWhile divided on the degree of provocations , the experts say that military actions from the North are inevitable . “ ( The North ) has military provocations in mind . Right now , they are building up the pretext , ” Asan Institute for Policy Studies Vice President Choi Kang said . “ There being no response on military channels means that inter - Korean relations are entering a critical situation . Military show of force is possible , and after that even inter - Korean clashes could be possible . ” The Sejong Institute ’ s Cheong voiced similar views , saying the North is likely to resume testing missiles , including submarine - launched ballistic missiles . Other experts , however , say that less provocative actions such as military exercises in the West Sea are more likely in the near future . Shin says he considers it likely that the North will hold off on major provocations such as SLBM tests for the time being , as such a move taken at present could strain Pyongyang - Beijing relations . He added that if the North carries out a major provocation , it will likely be either in August to coincide with South Korea - US joint drills or in October in time for the 75 th anniversary of the ruling Workers ’ Party of Korea ’ s foundation . Seoul ’ s next stepOn the matter of the direction Seoul ’ s response should take , the experts agree that South Korea needs to make its position clearer , on both its willingness to engage and its resolve to respond to provocations . “ ( Seoul ) needs to send a strong message that while we want peace , we will do everything we can to defend peace . That ’ s because South Korea showing its strength was the premise whenever North Korea reached out for talks , ” Choi said . The Sejong Institute ’ s Cheong went further to say that Seoul needs to have a clearer understanding of the situation . “ We need to draw North Korea into dialogue while giving what the North needs , and we need to clearly understand what we can and cannot do , ” Cheong said , adding that Seoul is focusing only on US - North Korea talks despite having seen that talks between the two alone cannot resolve the denuclearization issue . “ I think that North Korea ’ s disappointment in the South for changing the fundamentals of the talks , with the leaflet issue being added to it led to today ’ s development . ” Professor Leif - Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University says that Seoul should not veer from its engagement policy , but at the same time the country should not allow its policies to overshadow its values on issues such as human rights and security . “ Seoul should not give in to coercion or give away taxpayers ’ money as a sign of goodwill , but rather test various initiatives to see where Pyongyang is willing to engage in reciprocal cooperation , ” Easley said , adding that North Korea policies should not be allowed to damage Seoul ’ s alliance with the US or to contravene international sanctions . By Choi He - suk ( cheesuk @ heraldcorp . com ) Ahn Sung - mi ( sahn @ heraldcorp . com )   Choi Si - young ( siyoungchoi @ heraldcorp . com ) [ 네이버 에서 코리아 헤럴드 구독 ] ▶ KH Podcast    ▶ KH Video <ⓒ KoreaHerald ( www . koreaherald . com ) 무단 전재 및 재 배포 금지 >