How did you resist the urge to eat your piece before you were done smoking ? <| sep |> There ' s that . and I ' m just now realizing she doesn ' t move her fucking lips during that first interview with BernardArnold . This is what happens when JJ Abrams and Jonathan Nolan get together . On a side note , have you given any thought to why the town was buried completely 30 years ago , after the massacre , and then rebuilt perfectly down to the arrangement of the chairs , for the Wyatt storyline ? <| sep |> You can ' t say his model was good , but the data bad . yes , you can . His model estimates a likelihood for just such a case of systemic bias , are you really claiming he ' s to blame for bad data happening ? ? He gave a probability of that being the case , a huge one . Honestly , it ' s not that hard to understand that there was no way to make a more accurate estimate . None , because there was simply no extra knowledge on whether this polling bias existed . He somewhat artificially weights the polls on top of the polls being wrongThat has nothing to do with the discussion at hand , as , if anything , it eliminates longterm pollster bias but not onetime , exceptional circumstances that cannot predicted , like this one . But yes , he does that , it ' s why the model is normally so accurate . It isn ' t artificial , he ' s just learning pollster bias from past data . You can absolutely do this in an iterative Bayesian framework . You aren ' t directly changing the original prior , but you are adjusting subsequent models . The hell are you on about ? We ' re not talking about future models , we ' re talking about the likelihood of the original event Trump winning . You ' re changing the original prior , by claiming that him winning should inform on our original estimate of the probability spoiler it doesn ' t . The value of the probability isn ' t necessarily a measurement of a truly stochastic event , it can capture how certain we can be based on the available data . And there was simply no way to be any more certain about Trump ' s chances . None . Where do you think that data would have come from ?