Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (Danish: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning) is a Danish non-profit, independent think tank founded in 1969 by Thorkil Kristensen, former OECD Secretary-General for the betterment of our society. As one of Scandinavia's leading futures studies think tanks, the Institute's mission is to facilitate knowledge about potential futures, to inspire and equip decision-makers  and the public to make the best possible decisions about the future, in the present. Today, the globally oriented institute advises organisations on a strategic level all over the world, including Fortune 500 companies, government ministries and agencies, and non-government institutions. The Institute also hosts various events during the year and collaborate on others, in Denmark and abroad. Lastly the Institute produce several publications, such as reports, magazines and books.

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is organised as an association consisting of a wide range of member organisations and individuals. CIFS is not associated with any specific university or governmental body. The Institute's products include seminars, analyses, reports, courses, newsletters, books, and the award-winning magazine Scenario. The work at the Institute rests on the assumptions outlined by military strategist Herman Kahn in his book: The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years, and later adapted for strategic business planning by Pierre Wack from Royal Dutch Shell.

History 
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies was founded in 1969 by Professor Thorkil Kristensen, a member of the Club of Rome who had previously been the Danish Minister of Finance and later the OECD Secretary-General. The organisation was established in collaboration with a number of Danish organisations who had a desire to qualify their decision-making basis through futures studies.

Thorkil Kristensen was the CEO of the Institute from 1969 to 1988, after which Rolf Jensen took over until 2000. During this period, the Institute published the book The Dream Society, which became an international bestseller and was translated to several languages putting CIFS on the world map. From 2000 to 2013, the international outlook was expanded under the leadership of first Johan Peter Paludan and later Axel Olesen, and an especially Nordic focus characterised the circle of members and projects. In 2004 CIFS published the follow-up to The Dream Society, the book Creative Man. In 2010 CIFS launched the print magazine SCENARIO, which has since been sold from newsstands around the world. Claus Kjeldsen was the CEO of CIFS from 2013 to 2018.

In 2019, the Institute became the facilitator of the Nordic Health 2030 Movement, a multi-stakeholder initiative intended to create collaboration about a new outlook on health.

List of CEOs 
 Thorkil Kristensen (1969-1972, 1973-1988)
 Niels Ivar Bech (1972-1973)
 Rolf Jensen (1988-2000)
 Johan Peter Paludan (2001-2004)
 Axel Olesen (2004-2013)
 Claus Kjeldsen (2013-2018)
 Daria Krivonos (2018-

Work 
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies research covers a wide variety of topics from identification and statistically based analysis of global trends to subjective and emotional responses to the future. The work of the Institute is interdisciplinary, and its staff covers a number of academic disciplines and professional backgrounds, including astrophysics, biochemistry, literature, history, theology, sociology, political science, cultural studies, business studies, and economics.
 
Some of the Institute's books include:
 Jensen, Rolf. The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination will Transform your Business
Mogensen, Klaus Æ. Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee, and Citizen

The Institute is the Danish Partner of the EUROCONSTRUCT network, which provides analysis and forecasts of construction in 19 Western and Central Eastern European countries.

The Nordic Health 2030 Movement 
CIFS is facilitating the Nordic Health 2030 Movement. The movement was inspired by the gathering of over 30 leading decision makers across the Nordics during 2019, who all acknowledged the need for and the value in turning towards preventive health and agreed to develop a collaborative network for achieving this goal. What everyone shares in the Nordic Health 2030 Movement is a commitment to achieving better health on both an individual and a societal level. Everyone does what they can to contribute, from engaging in more preventive health activities in everyday life, to working to develop and implement better healthcare policies.

The Nordic Health 2030 Movement rests on three sets of principles that have the aim of making personalised and preventive care a reality for all:

 The New Social Contract (the Resilience Workstream): Everyone should contribute; nobody should be left behind. That is the balance of the responsibility that we should all bear together.
 The New Data Models (the Data Workstream): All individuals and professionals should be able to experience meaningful input and output of health-related data in real-time.
 The New Business Models: All organisations providing health care should be incentivised and rewarded for preventive efforts provided to individuals.

The result of the process has been published in the magazine Nordic Health 2030: Towards Preventive Health.

The Copenhagen Method™ 
Three distinct features characterise The Copenhagen Method™ for scenario planning, developed at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. The method is:

 Action-oriented
 Dialogue-based
 Dynamic

This contrasts with a traditional and more static approach to scenario planning, where organisations develop general scenarios for the next 10, 25, or 50 years. While such scenarios may be inspirational, they rarely enable organisations to act.

The Institute develop most of its products in direct stakeholder collaboration with organisations and their top management. The purpose of The Copenhagen Method™ therefore is to systemize the scenario planning process in a way that makes the results relevant and easy to turn into practical action. This is primarily achieved through careful selection of the particular uncertainties that exist for the individual organisation and through ongoing input from the organisation's management.

It is crucial to The Copenhagen Method™ that the results are co-created in direct collaboration with the client organisation's decision-makers to ensure ownership and a common, internal language. This dialogue-based approach also ensures an elevated level of relevance, because the Institute not only tailor the project to the organisation's unique needs, but also regularly test our ideas and assumptions throughout the process.

SCENARIO Magazine 
The award-winning SCENARIO Magazine is published four times a year and can be purchased in newsstands and bookstores in a wide variety of countries. The magazine is developed and edited at CIFS in collaboration with writers, scientists, thinkers, and creatives from around the world. SCENARIO provides the reader with an unprecedented insight into trends, zeitgeist, scientific breakthroughs, and new patterns of behaviour that will shape our future society.

List of Awards 
 Anders Bording Media Prize. Winner, 2011 
 The Society for News Design. Best of News Design, Award of Excellence, 2014 
 The Society for News Design. Best of News Design, Award of Excellence, 2016
 Stack Awards. Commended for Best Original Non-Fiction, 2017

Global Scanning Network 
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Global Scanning Network (GSN) is a network of CIFS employees, and a team of global ambassadors. The ambassadors are Master or PhD graduates and working professionals on a six-month rotation, providing expert perspectives in the realms of science and technology, politics, culture, design, innovation, business management, finance, marketing and branding. The GSN represents a diverse, global group of individuals contributing unique observations, profitable ideas, and sharp insights into specific industry challenges. With the GSN, the Institute collect, compare and evaluate a wide range of signals – including new and emerging trends, technologies, values, products, concepts, companies, services, and ideas. The intention is to help identify what's happening now and what could emerge tomorrow. It is a process that seeks to identify the earliest indications of a potentially disruptive development, but also tracks changes to established phenomena or trends. In the Global Scanning Review, CIFS publish a carefully chosen selection of the best observations.

References

Further reading 
 Kruse, Martin. The realism in fictionalised scenarios in future studies. Odense University, 2008
 Andersen, Poul Nyboe. Thorkil Kristensen, En ener i dansk politik. Odense University Studies and Social Sciences vol 177., 1994
 Wack, Pierre. Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, nov-dec 1985

Relevant Links 
 Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Category:Think tanks based in Denmark
Category:Futurology
Category:1969 establishments in Denmark