2020 Basque regional election

The 2020 Basque regional election will be held on Sunday, 5 April 2020, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia.

On 4 February 2020, Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu discussed holding a snap election within a cabinet meeting, fulfilling a legal requirement previous to any election call and sparking speculation that a regional election was imminent. Six days later, on 10 February, Urkullu confirmed the election for 5 April, seeking to distance himself from the convoluted political landscape in Catalonia after a 2020 election in the region was announced by Catalan president Quim Torra. The announcement of the Basque election prompted Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo to trigger a snap election in Galicia as well.

Overview

Electoral system
The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari.

Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Basques abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (). The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats each to provide for an equal representation of the three provinces in parliament as required under the regional statute of autonomy. This means that Álava is allocated the same number of seats as Biscay and Gipuzkoa, despite their populations being, as of 1 July 2019, 328,571, 1,138,871 and 714,477, respectively.

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.

Election date
The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 25 September 2016, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 25 September 2020. The election decree must be published in the BOPV no later than 1 September 2020, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 October 2020.

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.

On 4 February 2020, it was revealed that Iñigo Urkullu was considering holding a snap election within a short timeframe and that he had fulfilled legal requirements for it by raising such hypothesis within a cabinet meeting, with 5 April being regarded as the most likely date. The decision of Catalan president Quim Torra on 29 January to announce a snap Catalan regional election to be held at some point throughout 2020 was said to have raised concerns within Urkullu's government, as the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) sought to prevent the next Basque regional election from being held simultaneously to prevent any interference from the Catalan political debate into the Basque campaign.

Asked in a plenary session of parliament on 7 February on whether he would be dissolving the chamber within the following days, Urkullu refused to either explicitly confirm or reject such hypothesis, but asked opposition parties for a commitment to approve as many legislation as possible "now and in the future". Sources within the Basque government pointed out that, for an election to be held on 5 April, the dissolution decree would have to be published in the BOPV on Tuesday, 11 February, and that if a snap election was to be eventually called the announcement of it happening could be delayed up to that day. Finally, Urkullu confirmed on 10 February the election date for 5 April, with the subsequent dissolution of parliament to be made official on the next day.

Parliamentary status
The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 11 February 2020, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country. The table below shows the status of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

In August 2018, Pilar Zabala, the leader of Elkarrekin Podemos, announced that she would not seek reelection and would leave politics by the end of the legislature. Ahead of the election, Equo was excluded from the coalition after the party had broken up with the Unidas Podemos nationwide alliance to join Más País in the lead up to the November 2019 Spanish general election.

Alfonso Alonso had been initially scheduled to repeat as the leading candidate for the People's Party (PP) in the regional election, having been confirmed for the post on 10 February 2020. However, the negotiation of a coalition with Citizens (Cs) which the Basque PP received with heavy criticism, amid claims of having been overruled and swept aside by the party's national leadership in the coalition talks, triggered an internal clash which led national PP leader Pablo Casado to force Alonso's removal as candidate on 23 February and propose Carlos Iturgaiz for the post instead.

Timetable
The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):

10 February: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the Lehendakari after deliberation in the Council of Government.
11 February: Formal dissolution of the Basque Parliament and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
14 February: Initial constitution of historical territory and zone electoral commissions.
21 February: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
2 March: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
4 March: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV).
7 March: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
8 March: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
9 March: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
10 March: Proclaimed lists are published in the BOPV.
20 March: Official start of electoral campaigning.
26 March: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
31 March: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
1 April: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes.
3 April: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.
4 April: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
5 April: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
10 April: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
14 April: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
25 April: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
2 May: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the BOPV.
The parliament's re-assembly must take place within fifteen days following the accreditation of at least one-third of proclaimed legislators.

Opinion polls
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Notes

References
Opinion poll sources

Other

Basque Country
Category:Regional elections in the Basque Country
Basque Country