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10.3390/land10010082
Bhatt, U. S.
Lader, R. T.
Walsh, J. E.
Bieniek, P. A.
Thoman, R.
Berman, M.
Borries-Strigle, C.
Bulock, K.
Chriest, J.
Hahn, M.
Hendricks, A. S.
Jandt, R.
Little, J.
McEvoy, D.
Moore, C.
Rupp, T. Scott
Schmidt, J.
Stevens, E.
Strader, H.
Waigl, C.
White, J.
York, A.
Ziel, R.
Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019
Uma S. Bhatt
1,2,* ,
Rick T. Lader
John E. Walsh
Peter A. Bieniek
Richard Thoman
Matthew Berman
Cecilia Borries-Strigle
1,2,
Kristi Bulock
Jonathan Chriest
Micah Hahn
Amy S. Hendricks
Randi Jandt
Joseph Little
Daniel McEvoy
T. Scott Rupp
Jennifer Schmidt
Heidi Strader
Christine Waigl
Alison York
Robert Ziel
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Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
US Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Region, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
The W. A. Franke College of Business, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA
Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA
Land 2021, 10(1), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
Received: 23 December 2020 / Revised: 9 January 2021 / Accepted: 10 January 2021 / Published: 17 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fire in the Earth System: Humans and Nature)
The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska's population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study's main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM's internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk. View Full-Text
Keywords: boreal forest; wildland fire; climate change; drought; PM2.5; Buildup Index; SPEI; RCP 8.5; LENS; temperature; precipitation boreal forest; wildland fire; climate change; drought; PM2.5; Buildup Index; SPEI; RCP 8.5; LENS; temperature; precipitation
Bhatt, U.S.; Lader, R.T.; Walsh, J.E.; Bieniek, P.A.; Thoman, R.; Berman, M.; Borries-Strigle, C.; Bulock, K.; Chriest, J.; Hahn, M.; Hendricks, A.S.; Jandt, R.; Little, J.; McEvoy, D.; Moore, C.; Rupp, T.S.; Schmidt, J.; Stevens, E.; Strader, H.; Waigl, C.; White, J.; York, A.; Ziel, R. Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019. Land 2021, 10, 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
Bhatt US, Lader RT, Walsh JE, Bieniek PA, Thoman R, Berman M, Borries-Strigle C, Bulock K, Chriest J, Hahn M, Hendricks AS, Jandt R, Little J, McEvoy D, Moore C, Rupp TS, Schmidt J, Stevens E, Strader H, Waigl C, White J, York A, Ziel R. Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019. Land. 2021; 10(1):82. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
Bhatt, Uma S., Rick T. Lader, John E. Walsh, Peter A. Bieniek, Richard Thoman, Matthew Berman, Cecilia Borries-Strigle, Kristi Bulock, Jonathan Chriest, Micah Hahn, Amy S. Hendricks, Randi Jandt, Joseph Little, Daniel McEvoy, Chris Moore, T. S. Rupp, Jennifer Schmidt, Eric Stevens, Heidi Strader, Christine Waigl, James White, Alison York, and Robert Ziel. 2021. "Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019" Land 10, no. 1: 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10010082
Uma Bhatt is a Professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks in the Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Institute. She is associate director of the NOAA Cooperative Institute CICOES. She earned Bachelor degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Russian from the University of Pittsburgh. She was a US Peace Corps Volunteer in Kenya. Her MS and Ph.D. are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Her postdoctoral research was done at COLA in Maryland. Her current research interests include climate drivers of tundra vegetation, seasonal forecasting of sea ice and fire weather, and research relevant for stakeholders.