Turning Point Brands
NYSE:TPB
Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides other tobacco products in the United States. The last earnings update was 76 days ago. More info.
TPB Share Price and Events
US Tobacco
TPB Shareholder Return
Turning Point Brands (TPB) -1.5% 0.5% 16.4% 61.9% 361.5% -
US Tobacco 1.4% -2.5% -12.5% -14.8% -27.5% 16.9%
TPB outperformed the Tobacco industry which returned -14.8% over the past year.
TPB outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 4.8% over the past year.
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Is Turning Point Brands undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?
Here we compare the current share price of Turning Point Brands to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Turning Point Brands.
NYSE:TPB Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 2 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:TPB
Tobacco Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.34
= 0.344 (1 + (1- 21%) (21.88%)) 0.6
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.8
= 2.73% + (0.8 * 5.96%) 7.5%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:TPB using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Turning Point Brands is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
NYSE:TPB DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions)
Discounted (@ 7.5%)
2020 6.54 Est @ -57.78% 6.08
2024 2.09 Est @ -11.8% 1.45
2025 1.93 Est @ -7.44% 1.25
2029 1.80 Est @ 0.29% 0.87
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $20.23
NYSE:TPB DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $1.80 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (7.5% – 2.73%) $38.71
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $38.71 ÷ (1 + 7.5%)10 $18.78
NYSE:TPB Total Equity Value
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $20.23 + $18.78 $39.02
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $39.02	/ 19.59 $1.99
NYSE:TPB Discount to Share Price
Value per share (USD) From above. $1.99
= -1 x ($51.23 - $1.99) / $1.99 -2472.1%
The current share price of Turning Point Brands is above its future cash flow value.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Turning Point Brands's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Are Turning Point Brands's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
NYSE:TPB PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
NYSE:TPB Share Price ** NYSE (2019-07-15) in USD $51.23
Global Tobacco Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 12 Publicly-Listed Tobacco Companies 13.53x
** Primary Listing of Turning Point Brands.
NYSE:TPB PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
= NYSE:TPB Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)
Turning Point Brands is overvalued based on earnings compared to the Global Tobacco industry average.
Turning Point Brands is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Does Turning Point Brands's expected growth come at a high price?
NYSE:TPB PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 2 Analysts 23.7%per year
Global Tobacco Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 7 Publicly-Listed Tobacco Companies 1.55x
NYSE:TPB PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
= 34.56x ÷ 23.7%
Turning Point Brands is poor value based on expected growth next year.
What value do investors place on Turning Point Brands's assets?
NYSE:TPB PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $4.54
NYSE:TPB Share Price * NYSE (2019-07-15) in USD $51.23
United States of America Tobacco Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 8 Publicly-Listed Tobacco Companies 5.06x
NYSE:TPB PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
= NYSE:TPB Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)
* Primary Listing of Turning Point Brands.
Turning Point Brands is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Tobacco industry average.
We assess Turning Point Brands's value by looking at:
Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Tobacco industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
Is the PB ratio less than the Tobacco industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
Turning Point Brands has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.
How is Turning Point Brands expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?
Is Turning Point Brands expected to grow at an attractive rate?
Turning Point Brands's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Turning Point Brands's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
Turning Point Brands's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
NYSE:TPB Future Growth Rates Data Sources
NYSE:TPB Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 2 Analysts 23.7%
NYSE:TPB Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 2 Analysts 13%
United States of America Tobacco Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.1%
Global Tobacco Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.4%
NYSE:TPB Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
NYSE:TPB Future Estimates Data
NYSE:TPB Past Financials Data
2017-03-31 223 6 27
Turning Point Brands's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Turning Point Brands's revenue is expected to grow by 13% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
NYSE:TPB Past and Future Earnings per Share
All data from Turning Point Brands Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
Unable to establish if Turning Point Brands will efficiently use shareholders' funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
Show me more growth companies in the Tobacco industry
We assess Turning Point Brands's future performance by looking at:
Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Global market? (1 check)
How has Turning Point Brands performed over the past 5 years?
Below we compare Turning Point Brands's growth in the last year to its industry (Tobacco).
Turning Point Brands has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
Turning Point Brands's 1-year earnings growth is less than its 5-year average (34.9% vs 46.3%)
Turning Point Brands's earnings growth has exceeded the Global Tobacco industry average in the past year (34.9% vs 24.7%).
Turning Point Brands's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
NYSE:TPB Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
2019-03-31 350.37 28.82 82.38 2.50
2016-03-31 196.04 7.96 51.08 1.40
2015-09-30 198.51 9.77 51.05
2015-03-31 200.18 -8.41 46.92
2014-12-31 200.33 -29.41 43.91 1.20
Whilst Turning Point Brands has efficiently used shareholders' funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%), this is metric is skewed due to its high level of debt.
Turning Point Brands used its assets more efficiently than the Global Tobacco industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
Turning Point Brands has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
Show me more strong past performing companies in the Tobacco industry
We assess Turning Point Brands's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Tobacco industry? (1 check)
How is Turning Point Brands's financial health and their level of debt?
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Turning Point Brands's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Turning Point Brands is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Turning Point Brands's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Turning Point Brands's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
All data from Turning Point Brands Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.
NYSE:TPB Past Debt and Equity Data
2019-03-31 88.84 208.40 1.74
2016-03-31 -79.23 293.15 2.94
2013-12-31 -63.43 300.56 35.38
Turning Point Brands's level of debt (234.6%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
Turning Point Brands had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, it is now positive therefore their debt level has improved.
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9%, less than 20% of total debt).
We assess Turning Point Brands's financial health by checking for:
What is Turning Point Brands's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Current annual income from Turning Point Brands dividends. Estimated to be 0.36% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Turning Point Brands shares you are expected to receive $7 in your first year as a dividend.
Turning Point Brands's pays a lower dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.41%).
Turning Point Brands's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.71%).
NYSE:TPB Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Global Tobacco Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 10 Stocks 6%
NYSE:TPB Future Dividends Estimate Data
NYSE:TPB Past Annualized Dividends Data
Turning Point Brands is not paying a notable dividend for United States of America, therefore no need to check if the payments are stable.
Turning Point Brands is not paying a notable dividend for United States of America, therefore no need to check if the payments are increasing.
What portion of Turning Point Brands's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
No need to calculate the sustainability of Turning Point Brands's dividends as it is not paying a notable one for United States of America.
No need to calculate the sustainability of Turning Point Brands's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for United States of America.
We assess Turning Point Brands's dividend by checking for:
How sustainable is the dividend, can Turning Point Brands afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
What is the CEO of Turning Point Brands's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?
Larry Wexler
TENURE AS CEO 10.1 years
Mr. Lawrence S. Wexler, also known as Larry, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of North Atlantic Trading Co Inc. since April 16, 2007. Mr. Wexler has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Turning Point Brands, Inc (Formerly North Atlantic Holding Co. Inc.) since June 2009. He served as the Chief Operating Officer of Turning Point Brands, Inc (formerly North Atlantic Holding Co. Inc.) since June 8, 2005. He served as Chief Operating Officer of North Atlantic Trading Co Inc. from June 8, 2005 to April 16, 2007. He served as President and Chief Operating Officer of North Atlantic Cigarette Company Inc.,(NACC), a subsidiary of North Atlantic Trading Co Inc. since December 2003. Prior to NACC, Mr. Wexler was a consultant to a number of emerging marketing, communication and financial companies, advising them on financial, marketing and strategic matters, at times in an operating role from 1998 to 2003. From 1977 to 1998, he was employed by Philip Morris, USA in various positions in the Sales, Marketing and Finance Departments including Group Director, Discount Brands. In this position, his group introduced the Basic and Alpine brands. Mr. Wexler served as Senior Vice President of Marketing of Philip Morris from 1992 to 1993 and Senior Vice President of Finance, Planning and Information Services from 1993 to 1998. He has been a Director of Turning Point Brands, Inc (formerly North Atlantic Holding Co. Inc.) since 2013. Mr. Wexler holds a bachelor of science in administrative science from Yale and a master of business administration from Stanford.
Larry's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Larry's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Average tenure and age of the Turning Point Brands management team in years:
The average tenure for the Turning Point Brands management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Robert Lavan
CFO & Senior VP
James Dobbins
Chuck Melander
Senior Vice President of Operations & Quality Assurance
Brian Wigginton
Chief Accounting Officer & VP of Finance
Michael Terry
Senior Vice President of Business Planning
Brittani Cushman
Senior Vice President of External Affairs
Graham Purdy
President of Nu-X Ventures
Average tenure and age of the Turning Point Brands board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Turning Point Brands board of directors is about average.
Thomas Helms
Non-Executive Chairman
H. C. Diao
David Glazek
Ashley Frushone
Greg Baxter
Arne Zimmerman
Peggy Hwan Hebard
More shares have been bought than sold by Turning Point Brands individual insiders in the past 3 months.
Show me more companies with insider buying in the Tobacco industry
23. May 19 Buy H. C. Diao Individual 21. May 19 21. May 19 2,000 $50.55 $101,080
29. Nov 18 Buy Robert Lavan Individual 29. Nov 18 29. Nov 18 3,500 $29.86 $104,510
12. Sep 18 Buy Standard General L.P. Company 05. Sep 18 05. Sep 18 153,079 $34.60 $5,296,533
12. Sep 18 Sell Thomas Helms Individual 10. Sep 18 10. Sep 18 -25,000 $42.04 $-1,051,000
28. Aug 18 Sell James Murray Individual 28. Aug 18 28. Aug 18 -4,047 $33.09 $-133,915
21. Aug 18 Sell Thomas Helms Individual 17. Aug 18 17. Aug 18 -20,000 $31.82 $-636,400
16. Aug 18 Sell Thomas Helms Individual 14. Aug 18 15. Aug 18 -7,500 $33.45 $-241,357
We assess Turning Point Brands's management by checking for:
Turning Point Brands has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.
Do Institutions Own Shares In Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB)?
See our latest analysis for Turning Point Brands NYSE:TPB Ownership Summary, July 11th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Turning Point Brands? … Insider Ownership Of Turning Point Brands While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. … Public Company Ownership It appears to us that public companies own 51% of TPB.
Simply Wall St - 4 days ago – Full article
Should You Be Impressed By Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:TPB) ROE?
The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Turning Point Brands: 32% = US$29m ÷ US$89m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2019.) Most readers would understand what net profit is, but it's worth explaining the concept of shareholders' equity. … Does Turning Point Brands Have A Good Return On Equity? … Combining Turning Point Brands's Debt And Its 32% Return On Equity Turning Point Brands does use a significant amount of debt to increase returns.
Simply Wall St - 2 weeks ago – Full article
Turning Point Brands's (NYSE:TPB) Wonderful 386% Share Price Increase Shows How Capitalism Can Build Wealth
During three years of share price growth, Turning Point Brands achieved compound earnings per share growth of 10% per year. … This free interactive report on Turning Point Brands's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further. … As it happens, Turning Point Brands's TSR for the last 3 years was 391%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier.
Does The Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB) Share Price Tend To Follow The Market?
Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). … A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. … With a market capitalisation of US$1.0b, Turning Point Brands is a small cap stock.
Do Turning Point Brands's (NYSE:TPB) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?
So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Turning Point Brands (NYSE:TPB). … View our latest analysis for Turning Point Brands How Quickly Is Turning Point Brands Increasing Earnings Per Share? … As a result, I'm encouraged by the fact that insiders own Turning Point Brands shares worth a considerable sum.
Here's What Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:TPB) ROCE Can Tell Us
In particular, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), as that can give us insight into how profitably the company is able to employ capital in its business. … What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)? … ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB) Insiders Have Been Selling
So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Turning Point Brands, Inc. … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … All up, insiders sold more shares in Turning Point Brands than they bought, over the last year
What Does Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:TPB) P/E Ratio Tell You?
We'll apply a basic P/E ratio analysis to Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:TPB), to help you decide if the stock is worth further research. … Turning Point Brands has a P/E ratio of 33.43, based on the last twelve months. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Share Price ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)
Is There Now An Opportunity In Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB)?
Turning Point Brands, Inc. … received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. … Today I will analyse the most recent data on Turning Point Brands's outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists
Investors Who Bought Turning Point Brands Shares A Year Ago Are Now Up 97%
To wit, the Turning Point Brands, Inc. … One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. … Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Turning Point Brands's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides other tobacco products in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Smokeless Products, Smoking Products, and NewGen Products. The Smokeless Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff; and contracts for and markets loose leaf chewing tobacco products. The Smoking Products segment imports and markets cigarette papers, tubes, and related products, as well as finished cigars, make-your-own cigar tobaccos, and cigar wraps; and processes, packages, and markets pipe tobaccos. The NewGen Products segment markets and distributes e-cigarettes, e-liquids, vaporizers, and other products without tobacco and/or nicotine. It also distributes various assortments of vaping related products to non-traditional retail outlets through VaporBeast, Vapor Shark, Vapor Supply, and IVG; and various vaping related products to individual consumers through Shark, Vapor World, and VaporFi branded retail outlets, as well as through online platforms. The company sells its products under the Zig-Zag, Beech-Nut, Stoker's, Trophy, VaporBeast, Vapor Shark, VaporFi, Havana Blossom, Durango, Tequila Sunrise, Fred's Choice, Old Hillside, Our Pride, Red Cap, Tennessee Chew, Big Mountain, Springfield Standard, Snake River, DirectVapor, and SouthBeachSmoke brands. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience store, tobacco outlet, food store, mass merchandising, drug store, and non-traditional retail channels. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky. Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a subsidiary of Standard Diversified Inc.
Name: Turning Point Brands, Inc.
Ticker: TPB
Market Cap: $1,003,565,474
Website: http://www.turningpointbrands.com
Address: Turning Point Brands, Inc.
5201 Interchange Way,
Kentucky, 40229,
NYSE TPB Voting Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 11. May 2016
DB 0T5 Voting Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 11. May 2016
Turning Point Brands employees.
Industry: Tobacco
Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
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