00:00We watch these demonstrations in the streets we hear about the transportation getting shut down. We are at the schools can shut down. Why. To an American. What's going on . It's not just to an American. The French are asking themselves the same question. This is a political failure by a manual on that call and by the French government. There are 42 different state pension plans many of them giving special privileges. And there are no private pension systems in France which may be very surprising to anybody familiar with the US the UK or the Netherlands. But this this reforming needs to be done at some point. It's exactly the kind of thing you would do puts you in the first hundred days of a second term. There was no reason to do it now. And it's been a series of miscommunications miscalculations by the government. And people are as angry at the government as they are really in favor of the pension reform . So Nicolas explained one thing to me if you could in the first hundred days I think it was his first term. Mr Macron really really had labour reform on the agenda and ISE every call. He put that through a lot. People thought there would be demonstrations not so much. Why is this so different. I would've thought I'd actually do it. And more objections to actual labour law reform the de pensions . No because first of all the French don't like change because they think you're going to take something away from them. And that's what they're convinced of here. Basically to solve the pension problem people either have to take a lower pension or work longer. And they the there are lots of special privileges for railway workers for metro workers and for different categories. That's why there are 42 different pension plans . Even lawyers have their own special state's pension plan. So the problem here is you're taking away privileges that they feel they've earned. And that basically everybody feels they will either get less money or have to work longer or both. So it's more about a sense of injustice. There are 68 percent of the French people who actually approve of the strikes and 68 percent of the French people are not against the pension reform. So this is really also about the unpopularity of a manual on my call. Who I have to say I don't think it's looking as good as it was for his re-election in 2022. Can you back down . He's going to have to back down to some extent and he's trying to put the onus on the prime minister as well. Felipe just as Jacques Chirac did back in the 90s when you know and as you pay had to back down. But the problem is now that with a five year presidential term and a five year legislative term and especially as much of a micromanager as my hall is and somebody who basically thinks of himself as the smartest guy in the room much like Obama did essentially the perception is that it is my quote who's taking all the decisions and he's giving out some very mixed messages both for that in terms of what is prime minister saying and in terms of the specialists that he is appointed to take care of this. And then he jumps in with something that doesn't make sense with what's being proposed . So the government is supposed to make its proposals tomorrow and the strikes are already happening. Now what's wrong with this picture. It's just total disorganization. Okay. Let's go across the channel and see if there's disorganization over in Britain right now. There's a little election coming up on Thursday. Well how about something easy. Yeah exactly. What do you expect to come out of Thursday. What comes next . Okay I think so. We go from one easy subject to the next . Right. Thanks for that . Essentially essentially there are two options. Either the Tories come the Conservative Party gets a majority in which case Boris Johnson will quote deliver Brexit by January 30. First the withdrawal agreement though which we've talked about before will be passed. And then he said he won't request an extension for the new trade agreement and the many other agreements that need to be made by the end of 2020. We'll see about that. He's going back on a lot of stuff. On the other hand if there's tactical voting for example for the liberal Democrats then what can happen is you will have a hung parliament. And if you have a hung parliament you will almost certainly have to have a second referendum. And if you have a second referendum then it could be reversing the Brexit decision and there'll be a lot of confusion for some time to come. The polls showed Boris Johnson ahead but they also showed Theresa May ahead last time two years ago and she ended up with no majority and had to form a small coalition with the Northern Ireland DP party. So it's going to go on. And when even though Johnson is saying let's get Brexit done whatever happens Brexit won't be done for a very very long time. And that's the point I wanted to get to was even if they get Brexit done in sense of the separation that doesn't say what comes next they still have another negotiation to go right. To determine that the relationship going forward . It's a whole series of negotiations could they. What the Brits have nots don't seem to have taken on board is that the European Union is just not just a trading bloc. There are health standards. There are food standards. There are security issues . There are border issues. And all of the even though the UK is outside the Schengen area. All of these things will need to be negotiated. So my prediction would be that in order to get this thing over the line by the end of 2020 if if Boris Johnson gets a majority if the withdrawal agreement is passed he will actually align completely with Europe which will mean that basically the UK will be like Norway paying money and and not part of the decision making process wouldn't .
Macron 2022 Reelection Isn't Looking Good, Dungan Says
December 10th, 2019, 8:26 PM GMT+0000
Nicholas Dungan, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, discusses pension reform protests in France and what it means for Emmanuel Macron. He speaks with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Balance of Power." (Source: Bloomberg)
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