Expert predicts: 13 keys that GUARANTEE Trump 2020 victory
A professor from American University has issued a grave warning for Democrats — President Donald Trump is going to be reelected in 2020.
To insiders, he's a familiar face. He ignored polls in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election and predicted Trump's victory.
And now that November 2020 is just around the corner, Allan Lichtman, a political historian who has correctly guessed the last nine presidential election winners, is saying another Trump victory is at hand.
For more than 30 years, he's correctly predicted who is going to be seated in the Oval Office.
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Perhaps he knows the political landscape very well.
"Trump wins again in 2020… unless six of 13 key factors turn against him," he said.
Lichtman comes to these conclusions from his book, "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016." The book outlines 13 keys factors in determining who will win the election.
According to his model, if six or more of the 13 keys are false by the election, the incumbent will lose. He's followed this model for more than three decades, and he's never missed.
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Here are the 13 keys, summarized by The Washington Post reporter Peter Stevenson:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals, or exceeds, mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affected major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
So far, Lichtman says that Trump is only "down" in three key areas.
"Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
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Remember, this is coming from a liberal professor. And it's awful news for the Democratic presidential hopefuls.
For years, the left has been in a hysterical rage over Trump's 2016 victory.
Imagine how they'll react in 2020.
The Horn editorial team