2017 Most Over-seeded Teams
Undeserving 1-seeds have consistently under-performed, and this year North Carolina and Kansas fit the bill.
I am using team ratings from my computer model to determine if a team is over-seeded in the tournament. 1-seeds should be one of the top four teams, 2-seeds should be teams 5-8, and so on. I'd like to mention that my model's not too shabby, either. It performed better than ESPN's model at picking against the spread.
Historically (going back to 2013), only the top seeds (1 through 6) have demonstrated a clear trend of under-performing when my model says they were over-seeded
Overrated 2-seeds
My model says Duke and Arizona both should've been 4-seeds
26 of the last 60 2-seeds were over-rated by that much or more.
None won the championship
Two (including Duke in 2012) lost in the first round
Ten lost in the Second Round
Only 5 reached the Final Four
Duke and Arizona do, however, have the DNA of a championship team
3-seeds that should be be 6-seeds or worse have consistently under-performed
This year, only Baylor is that overrated
There is one outlier – in 2011, Connecticut should've been a 6-seed, but they won it all
There have been 16 other 3-seeds that overrated
None reached the Final Four
Two lost in the First Round
Seven lost in the Second Round
Purdue should've been a 5 and Butler a 6
27 of the last 60 4-seeds were over-seeded
None reached the Championship game
Only 2 reached the Elite 8 and one reached the Final Four
8 lost in the First Round
9 lost in the Second Round
Minnesota should've been an 8-seed
24 of the last 60 5-seed have been as grossly over-seeded as Minnesota or more
13 (over half!) of them lost in the First Round
In 2010, Butler surprised everyone by reaching the Championship game as a 5-seed
Besides Butler, none of the other over-seeded 5's in this group reached even the Elite 8
Maryland shouldn't have even made it into the tournament
22 of the last 60 6-seeds were significantly over-seeded
13 (59%) of them lost in the First Round
None of the reached the Final Four
5 of them actually won multiple games, so all is not lost for Maryland. Forget about a Final Four run, though.
This entry was posted in Bracket Tips and tagged 1 seed, NCAA bracket, NCAA championship, NCAA Tournament, over rated teams on March 14, 2017 by BracketNinja.
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