Hello Donald & So Long Leonard
alt-right, China, Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, Hallelujah, Hillary Clinton, NATO, Pocahontas, Putin, so long Marianne, So Long Maryanne, South China Sea, Steve Bannon, Trump, Whitewater
In the space of roughly a week we saw Donald Trump elected to the most powerful position on earth and the death of poet, writer and musician extraordinaire Leonard Cohen. As difficult a task as I am setting myself here I'm going to try to draw a thread between these two events.
For many of us I think the win of Donald Trump was shocking but not a surprise. After Brexit many realised the unreliability of polling and also after the election of Duterte in the Philippines, the appetite of some to stick it to traditional, legacy or dynasty politicians. This isn't revolution a la 'First we take Manhattan then we take Berlin' this is anarchy. The anarchist movement which featured very powerfully in Portugal and Spain in the late 1920s concentrated on tearing something down without too much regard for what to put in its place, believing that out of the destruction comes possibility. It is the bushfire approach to forest regeneration. As we know from this there is every chance things may not turn out as you wish for. Fate is a very fickle mistress in which to place all your reliance. What I fear many voters have done in that moment of sobriety in the booth is think about teaching the establishment a lesson, not realising that collectively everyone voting the same way brings out an unintended consequence – the candidate of your worst nightmares.
I don't particularly blame American voters though because they had a tough choice. As 'leader of the free world' there is not only the prosecution of your agenda but also POTUS provides world leadership, including, I would argue, moral leadership. In the case of Election 2016 US voters were confronted by two candidates neither of whom had any particular moral strength. With regard to Trump he's most probably a narcissist but definitely sexist and racist. His two clear failings are lack of a sound IQ and temperament. I suspect that he will be the President known for the thinnest skin and the lowest resilience. I hope I am wrong. While Trump's flaws are there in plain sight (or at least we hope he has no shortcomings we aren't already aware of) Hillary's are a bit more opaque. There has always been a taint over the House of Clinton going way back to the 1970s and 80s with Whitewater (a failed real estate investment). Then there was Bill's indiscretions, the emails and the Clinton Foundation. When we talk about moral authority I don't think there was much on show with either candidate. Hillary had money and the entitlement and this may have turned many off. Makes you wonder whether the result would have been better with Elizabeth Warren at the top of the Democrat ticket, 'Pocahontas' jibes aside?
It was clear in the run up to the election that Trump really wasn't the mouthpiece of anyone. Sure he had Steve Bannon of the alt-right at his side but I doubt they pitched in much cash. He wasn't bankrolled by big business; in fact Clinton outspent him by many millions $898m v $430m if Bloomberg has its figures correct. Take a moment to reflect on the amount of money we are talking about here. No wonder blue collar America feels out of the loop. Clinton on the other hand had funds from sources that made America uncomfortable. The feeling that she had been 'bought and paid for' by Corporate America, especially by the investment banks like Goldman Sachs, never went away. Nor did she adequately douse those flames. To have – on record – public speeches saying that investment banking practice would be put under the microscope, only to say in a $200k a time paid for address to the very same bankers that she would look after them, smacked of hypocrisy. Which it was. America sensed this and on top of the fact that 'we ain't having no woman in the White House pushing us around' Trump took the prize many said he could not claim.
So now we live with the consequences. One of the key ones is the 'America first' aka isolationist policy that was Trumpeted during the campaign. To paraphrase the saying about Wall Street…'when America sneezes the whole world catches a cold'. We have all seen what happens in a vacuum. In Libya with no thought to who would replace Gadhafi we ended up with real chaos and the likely new base for ISIS. When America creates its own vacuum in focussing on domestic 'America first' policies its foreign policy void will be filled – make no bones about it. China will become more aggressive in the South China Sea if no Asia-Pacific pivot is there to counterbalance that. Putin is likely to be more aggressive towards ex-Soviet territories who have cosied up to NATO. NATO without the 'attack one-attack all' rule will be toothless. The world will become a much more unstable place and that is coming from our current position with a number of serious conflagrations including Syria and Yemen which aren't that stable.
So while the international scene might re-align with a more distracted President (and some would say this is a good thing) we are likely to get a whole host of domestic politics filling our screens streamed live from the US. Journalists around the world will be hanging off every throwaway remark, every tweet to goad or ridicule. The 'victims' are likely to be the very blue collar workers that brought Trump to power. With little opportunity to exploit the primary labour market they are unlikely to get enough 'jam' to be kept quiet. It's just not possible to have a T Shirt under $5 and previously outsourced jobs brought back to the US. That genie's out of the bottle and won't fit back in.
Then there is the fissure created within American society occasioned by Trump's divisive campaign that will take years to heal if at all. Black lives matter when you have a black President. Do they still matter when you have a white President who has open support from the KKK? With Bannon as key adviser many rightly wonder just how far race relations will retreat. Remember they didn't advance that much under a black President. For many minorities I suspect, under Trump's Presidency, they will ask whether 'Democracy is coming, to the USA.'
It's easy to be pessimistic, but remember this – society is nothing more than the aggregate of people living together in a more or less ordered community. Last week our society was the poorer for the passing of Leonard Cohen. Where Donald Trump is a self-confessed lady's man pest with a mouth full of tic tacs, Cohen was an acknowledged lover of women in the best possible sense. His final words of farewell to Marianne, a former lover, on hearing of her impending death are testament to a great poet and all round nice person. 'Come over to the window my little darling' feels very different if it is Trump or Cohen saying it!
Cohen had a lot to be genuinely bitter about given his retirement was rudely interrupted by the knowledge that his manager and purportedly long-time friend Kelley Lynch had stolen his money and money left in trust funds for charities. Without an ounce of bitterness Cohen took to the road and blew the world away (including me on two occasions) with the most sublime musical and poetic performances, in his late 70s and 80s no less. Now that is true stamina! Where Cohen shows humility and stature as a true man in these circumstances, Trump would be all over Twitter trying to exact revenge.
I leave the last observations on Cohen to those of his son writing on his father's official website.
'My sister and I just buried my father in Montreal. With only immediate family and a few lifelong friends present, he was lowered into the ground in an unadorned pine box, next to his mother and father. Exactly as he'd asked. As I write this I'm thinking of my father's unique blend of self-deprecation and dignity, his approachable elegance, his charisma without audacity, his old-world gentlemanliness and the hand-forged tower of his work. There's so much I wish I could thank him for, just one last time. I'd thank him for the comfort he always provided, for the wisdom he dispensed, for the marathon conversations, for his dazzling wit and humor. I'd thank him for giving me, and teaching me to love Montreal and Greece. And I'd thank him for music; first for his music which seduced me as a boy, then for his encouragement of my own music, and finally for the privilege of being able to make music with him. Thank you for your kind messages, for the outpouring of sympathy and for your love of my father.'
Maybe Donald Trump can rise to the occasion and address his spiritual vacuum in the way that Cohen was able to constantly remain positive through his embrace of spirituality through his music, art and life. If this happens we may for the first time in Trump's reign be able to say 'Hallelujah' to that!
RIP Leonard Cohen 1934-2016, hello Donald Trump 1946 – present.
High Fives In India
caste system, Chetan Bhagat, clean India, Dailts, democracy, India, J K Galbraith, Jati, Kashmir, Line of Control, LoC, Making India Awesome, Mrutyuanjai Mishra, Namaste, Narendra Modi, Pakistan, smart phone, Swachh Bharat, T.S Eliot, untouchables, Varanassi, Varna, Xi Jinping
I've been in India for a month which explains why I've been absent from the blogosphere. Yes it is possible to be on holiday and blog too, but with India I would argue you need a certain presence and all cognitive faculties in play devoted to sensing and understanding each hour, each day of the trip. T. S Eliot wrote in The Waste Land 'On Margate Sands I can connect nothing with nothing.' That's the way I feel about India, except in this case it has taught me to connect something with nearly everything. Having been back a week I'm beginning to process the 'data' and thought a blog, where I could marshal my thoughts and give voice to some of those connections, might be beneficial. I learnt an awful lot in my month and will try and condense some of these into the top five lessons and observations.
India v China who will prevail?
Population-wise the big two countries to battle it out to be super-powers of the future, would on the face of it be India and China. Xi Jinping has an advantage over Modi in that he can direct economic policy directly given it is a one party State. Modi on the other hand has a much more complex and I have to say convoluted route to take to prosecute his agenda. China is unencumbered by the caste system or religious differences which would appear to be a major stumbling block. India is also bedevilled by major infrastructure challenges with some of the worst roads I have had the pleasure or more accurately displeasure of driving on. On this count it's China that will prevail. However I would caution being too quick to judgment. There are two real advantages that give India a fighting chance. As Indian writer Chetan Bhagat makes clear while India has some of the world's dumbest people it also has some of the smartest. It is the latter fact that suggests India will fare well in the future. But for me the greatest point of leverage is the fact that India is a democracy – in fact the world's largest and has been so since independence in 1947. China isn't and as the middle class in China become more affluent and assertive so inevitably will they wish to exert more control over their futures. Democracy is the itch that sits uncomfortably underneath the surface. It will set progress back in China many generations and during that time I suspect India may well slip in under the radar. Roads can be built in a 10 year time horizon. Democracy takes decades to install and engrain. Don't believe me – look at Africa.
Casting off the caste system
I asked our tour guide about the cast system. Sort of wished I hadn't because his explanation took many days and in fact I think he never quite finished his in-depth discussion at the end of 30 days. Put very simply, because it is much more complicated than the space a blog allows, there is a social stratification in India. There is Varna (class) which deals with the four social classes, then the Jati (caste) that refers to caste and is a birth-based system where you are locked into a caste through the association of your family name. Outside of that are the Dalits (untouchables) for whom existence in India is still pretty bleak. They are the downtrodden whose life is miserable and for whom cleaning toilets or road sweeping appear to be the primary occupations. During the time of the British Raj the cementing of these systems was a useful way to divide and conquer. Once the British left there was so much vested interest in perpetuating the system that it has become a totally ingrained way of social function. But it is unlikely that the caste/class system can survive the game-changing nature of social media as delivered via the net.
The two things that differentiate you from someone else on the net are connectivity and creativity. Neither of these ultimately are determined by class or caste. Mobile connectivity and smart phones are ubiquitous in India. They mightn't have flushing toilets in all cases but they all have smart phones.
Whereas in the past caste and class were important factors in securing employment, nowadays as Mrutyuanjai Mishra writes, having good English languages skills cuts across any archaic class/caste system. Where access to the net, in English, is in play who cares or knows which caste you are in?
Private Grandeur – Public Squalor
Economist JK Galbraith coined the phrase 'private grandeur-public squalor' in the 1950s to describe the situation he saw in the US with respect to public infrastructure. This phrase sprung to mind early in the trip and stayed there until the end. India is one of the filthiest cleanest countries I have visited. More than once I observed someone cleaning their shop or family home only to dump their rubbish and sweepings out onto the street, presumably just beyond the boundary line of their own property.
Consequently India is littered with the two scourges of modern living; empty bottles and plastic bags. They litter the streets, the highways, waterways and even the deserts of Rajasthan. The Government recognises this and has launched Swachh Bharat which translates as 'clean India' with the aim of eradicating filth, including public defection, by 2019 which is the 150th anniversary of Gandhi's birth. Far be it from me to presume I have a ready-made solution, but if Indians could think of the area immediately outside their shop or home as an extension of it, then this would go a long way to achieving their goal. The vast gap between rich and poor I was ready for. The vast difference in cleanliness between the public street and the private shop I was not.
Please sound horn – Tolerance where the rubber hits the road
There used to be an unwritten league table of the craziest places in the world to drive. Those who used to proffer Rome or Paris would get scoffed at by the more intrepid travellers who would inevitably throw in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia or Teheran in Iran as much more life-threatening. On the face of it you could throw in Delhi or any other large Indian city too. But on closer observation the system seems to work. There are two things that make it much safer than it would appear at first glance.
Firstly people honk their horns. Unlike Australia, it is not an aggressive act but rather one of concern for the fellow driver. It lets them know you are there and from that they will make an accommodation for you. Secondly and more significantly I think Indian's are so tolerant of one another. Travels have taught me that people are, in general, very friendly and welcoming (perhaps excluding the Welsh speaking inhabitants of northern Wales). Indian's are quite possibly at the top of that list. Always cheerful, always accommodating it would appear that they can get by in their daily lives (often with much less than what we have in the West) with an inner harmony and happiness that we could all learn from.
Hands on the trigger at the LoC
Whilst up in northern India, not far from the border with Pakistan, India launched what became known repeatedly in the days and weeks afterwards as the 'surgical strikes' into Pakistan across the Line of Control (LoC). I have been aware of the issues around Kashmir for a number of years and occasionally I would read about a skirmish or two on the border. Not until my visit though did I appreciate just how volatile this region is. Remember this is two nuclear-able states facing off against one another where 'face' plays a hugely significant role in how they conduct themselves. The rhetoric between the two was something to behold. Respective medias rather than just report on the situation fanned the flames and I could see a rise of nationalism amongst some locals as India had for the first time undertaken such daring offensive action. The implications of this unravelled in subsequent days with bans by both countries of film and music content from each other. Art and entertainment are the soft diplomacies that can bind communities across borders. When art loses its ambassadorial role things are pretty bad. Watch this space!
It would appear to me that Australia and India are alike in many ways and I might explore this more fully in a future blog. There's still I lot I am processing after a month and I doubt it will ever leave me. 'Namaste', frequently used as a greeting in India is also used in farewell. Loosely translated 'Namah' means bow or adoration and 'te' means to you. Nothing sums up this wonderful, contradictory and compelling nation more so than this heartfelt salutation.