Richard Justice
Nolan Ryan's Present And Future
Ballparks, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Management, Media, MiLB, Players, Politics, Spring Training, Stats
People are forgetting who Nolan Ryan is and why he has the reputation he does.
As a player, he was an ornery, competitive, strong and silent Texan who let his fastball and his performance do the talking. Now that he's in the Rangers' front office, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's staking out his territory and trying to control his own destiny by waiting to see exactly where he stands in the new hierarchy. It's still unknown what his job description is and how far his power extends with former GM Jon Daniels now promoted to President of Baseball Operations; Rick George is running the business side; and Thad Levine—as soon as Ryan's fate is determined—probably taking over a significant part of Daniels's former duties in the day-to-day minutiae of running the club. Ryan has a right to stop and say, "Hold awn just a dern second here, pardner," with his hand on his sidearm and an icy glare at the town politicians who are trying to take away his sheriff's badge.
It seems that Ryan is being contrary because he's not sure as to the delineation of the new parameters and wants to be certain he's still wanted with the Rangers for his experience and advice. Daniels has said nothing will change, but that's not worth much until there's a disagreement between the two and Ryan knows that Daniels doesn't have the power to shrug off what Ryan wants and do as he prefers without approval from his "boss." Ryan also has an ego as big as Texas and doesn't want to be seen as a caddy for his 35-year-old underling.
The Rangers baseball people are, by and large, highly educated and stat-centric. That's not Ryan. While Ryan's preferred method of developing pitchers deviated from the stat guy template, were Daniels and Levine onboard with what he was doing? Or were they cringing at the medieval methods and went along to get along because Ryan had the owner's ear and they quietly hoped that no one got hurt or too much damage wasn't done to the young arms Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and others as they were pushed harder than the numbers dictate is optimal? If Ryan's tactics are shunted to the side and more "science" is injected into the equation, it will be clear what was going on with the Rangers. This is independent of whether Ryan's there or not.
I believe it's a mistake to let Ryan leave. While he prefers layman terminology and old-school sensibilities, he's also able to adapt. When he hooked up with Tom House as his pitching coach and advisor in the 1980s-90s, he took House's penchant for long-winded technical terms and innovations such as throwing a football and made them accessible for everyone. With his resume, if Ryan was doing it it had to be okay. It's the same dynamic with the stat guys in the organization. He's not a grumpy old man with no interest nor capability to understand the new metrics. He plays the opposite side from a position of having the experience to know what works and what doesn't and he won't be intimidated by condescension and high-end vocabularies. On the other side of the coin, with people who have their own theories and beliefs on building a club, they don't want to hear the growling, memory-lane laced, "In my day, grumble, grumble…" from someone who doesn't have the faintest interest nor comprehension of what the stat people are trying to do.
Ryan will not accept being a figurehead and those who are suggesting the Astros hire him away from the Rangers (Johnette Howard and Richard Justice) mention that Ryan couldn't be a figurehead if the Astros did hire him. But what would he do there? The Astros have taken dramatic steps and made pointed hirings of pure stat people who never picked up a baseball. GM Jeff Luhnow has made no secret as to his intentions with the team and he's implementing his beliefs as to how to rebuild a dead and dilapidated franchise. Whether it works remains to be seen, but he's plotted his course and is sticking to it. That blueprint doesn't include an old-schooler who wants substantial say-so and is used to getting his way in the male-dominated world of baseball in which might makes right.
Teams have plenty of former stars on their payrolls. Willie Mays is listed as a member of the Giants' front office as a special assistant. Soon to be age 82, how much special assistance do you think Mays is providing? How much interest do you think he has in doing it? Mays is there to hobnob with the people who were kids when he was in his say heyday, want to say, "Wow!! I met Willie Mays!!" and have the money to purchase season tickets, luxury suites and hold corporate events at AT&T Park. The Yankees bring in their former stars to stand around in spring training, mingle with the fans and help them sell stuff with nostalgia and stories. Sometimes, as was the case with Andy Pettitte, they even come back to play and contribute. But they're not there with legitimate power, if any at all.
For the Astros, hiring Ryan would be diametrically opposed to what they've done since Luhnow took command. While it may make some fans happy for a moment, if they're inserting Ryan's methods into their rebuilding process, the inevitable question as to why they were they so hell-bent on tearing the thing down to its brass fittings and putting together a team that will compete for the title of worst in history if they were going to bring in Ryan and his opposite viewpoint as a decision maker?
Ryan could have been governor of Texas if he'd chosen to. He has neither the time nor the desire to stand around talking to people he doesn't know and being the former hero who's there to make everyone smile at the memories he created with his power fastball, longevity, and intensity. He wants to work. That may be possible with the Rangers, but it's completely off the table for the Astros. The Rangers should make sure Ryan feels wanted because they need him to stay with the organization for his presence and his knowledge.
March 8, 2013 Paul Lebowitz Tagged Andy Pettitte, Astros, Astros Nolan Ryan, Derek Holland, ESPN, Giants, Houston Astros, Jeff Luhnow, Johnette Howard, Jon Daniels, Jon Daniels Nolan Ryan, Jon Daniels promotion, Martin Perez, Matt Harrison, New York Yankees, Nolan Ryan, Rangers, Richard Justice, Rick George, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Thad Levine, Tom House, Tom House football training, Tom House Nolan Ryan, Will Nolan Ryan stay with the Rangers?, Willie Mays, Yankees Leave a comment
Michael Bourn vs. the #11 Pick: Which is Right for the Mets?
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Operating under the premises that if the Mets sign Michael Bourn they will: A) not receive a waiver from MLB to switch the number 11 pick in the first round of the 2013 draft for a second round pick, and B) pay something close to what B.J. Upton got from the Braves and probably more to get him, we can look at what the risk/reward of signing Bourn will be now and later.
The draft pick
The past is not indicative of the future in the draft. A myriad of factors dictate what a club will get from whatever player they draft at whichever spot, but the eleventh pick in the first round is a high pick. From 2003 to 2010, players taken at eleven have been:
2003: Michael Aubrey
2004: Neil Walker
2005: Andrew McCutchen
2006: Max Scherzer
2007: Phillippe Aumont*
2008: Justin Smoak*
2009: Tyler Matzek**
2010: Deck McGuire**
*Aumont and Smoak were both traded for Cliff Lee.
**Matzek and McGuire are mentioned because players selected after them were traded for name players.
After the eleventh pick, the following players were taken in 2003 to 2010 in the first round:
2003: Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin
2004: Jered Weaver, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes
2005: Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz
2006: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain
2007: Jason Heyward, Rick Porcello
2008: Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Wade Miley
2009: Mike Trout, Tyler Skaggs, Brad Boxberger
2010: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale, Chance Ruffin, Mike Olt
Odorizzi was included in trades for Zack Greinke, James Shields and Wade Davis. Skaggs was part of the Angels trade for Dan Haren. Boxberger and Grandal were traded by the Reds for Mat Latos. Ruffin was traded by the Tigers for Doug Fister.
This isn't a final determination on any player's worth, but a clue as to what these draft picks mean. It underscores another underrated aspect of the draft in finding players that a club may not have much of a plan to use themselves, but will develop to trade for established help.
What this shows isn't specifically connected to the number 11 pick as if it's a spot that cannot be surrendered. The pick itself is irrelevant in comparison to the talent level in the 2013 draft. Judging the rest of the first round should tell the Mets which is better; which is going to help them more.
The 2005 draft was strong enough that the Red Sox were able to get Ellsbury and Buchholz late in the first round, the 2006 draft was weak. If there isn't enough talent in the pool to make an impact, then Bourn would make more sense.
It's not financial, it's projective. The Mets can sign Bourn even if they have no immediate money to pay him upfront. With Jason Bay and Johan Santana both coming off the books after this season, they can backload any deal for Bourn and get him.
Scott Boras represents Bourn and is willing to keep his clients on the market into spring training without concern as to the public perception, industry ridicule or media panic. Boras has acquiesced with short-term deals for clients that didn't have much of a resume such as Kyle Lohse in 2008 with the Cardinals. That worked out well for Lohse because he pitched wonderfully in that first year with the Cardinals and was rewarded in-season with the money he didn't get the previous winter. With established players like Prince Fielder, Boras has waited and gotten his client paid. It's more likely than not that he'll eventually be rewarded with Bourn without significantly lowering his demands.
The current Mets outfield is ludicrous. I believe Lucas Duda will be a productive bat, but defensively he's a nightmare. Center field and right field are empty. Bourn gives credibility and quality defensively and offensively. He will certainly help them at least for the next three seasons when he'll be age 30-33.
Richard Justice reports on the Mets apparent decision to steer clear of Bourn if it will cost them the first round pick. Craig Calcaterra makes a ridiculous assumption on HardballTalk that Bourn won't help them when they're "legitimately competitive." When does he think they'll be "legitimately competitive"? 2017? 2020? Is it that bad for the Mets? Are they the Astros?
The Mets are flush with young pitching, will be competitive and could contend by 2014; the 2012 A's and Orioles are evidence that if the planets align, an afterthought team that's the butt of jokes like the Mets can contend in 2013. For someone who bases his analysis in "reality," it's an uninformed, offhanded and unnecessary shot at the Mets for its own sake.
Let's say he's kind of right and the Mets aren't contending until around 2015. Bourn will be 32. Is Bourn going to fall off the planet at 32? In many respects, a player comparable to Bourn is Kenny Lofton. Lofton was still a very good hitter and above-average center fielder until he was in his mid-30s. There have never been PED allegations with either player so there wasn't a shocking improvement at an age they should be declining with Lofton and it's reasonable that this would hold true for Bourn.
We can equate the two players and expect Bourn to still be able to catch the ball with good range in the outfield and steal at least 35-40 bases into his mid-30s. Bourn's not a speed creation at the plate who will come undone when he can no longer run like Willie Wilson; he can hit, has a bit of pop and takes his walks. He'll be good for at least the next four seasons.
It's not as simple as trading the draft pick to sign Bourn and paying him. The Mets have to decide on the value of that draft pick now and in the future as well as what would be accomplished by signing Bourn, selling a few more tickets in the now and erasing the idea that the Mets are simply paying lip service for good PR by floating the possibility of Bourn with no intention of seriously pursuing him. As long as they're not spending lavishly, that will be the prevailing view. They re-signed David Wright to the biggest contract in club history, but that still wasn't enough to quell the talk of the Wilpons' finances being in disastrous shape.
What's it worth to the Mets to sign Bourn? To not sign Bourn? To keep the draft pick? To lose the draft pick? To sell a few more tickets? To shut up the critics?
This is not an either-or decision of Bourn or the pick as it's being made out to be. The far-reaching consequences are more nuanced than the analysts are saying and there's no clear cut right or wrong answer in signing him or not signing him. That's what the Mets have to calculate when making the choice.
January 26, 2013 Paul Lebowitz Tagged Andrew McCutchen, Angels, Astros, Atlanta Braves, B.J. Upton, Billy Butler, Brad Boxberger, Braves, Brett Lawrie, Carlos Quentin, Chad Billingsley, Chance Ruffin, Chris Sale, Clay Buchholz, Cliff Lee, Craig Calcaterra, Dan Haren, David Wright, Deck McGuire, Doug Fister, Draft history, Hardball Talk, Ian Kennedy, Ike Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jake Odorizzi, James Shields, Jason Bay, Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce, Jered Weaver, Joba Chamberlain, Johan Santana, Justin Smoak, Kenny Lofton, Kyle Lohse, Lance Lynn, Lucas Duda, Mat Latos, Max Scherzer, Mets, Mets first round draft pick, Mets outfield, Michael Aubrey, Michael Bourn, Michael Bourn Mets draft pick, Mike Olt, Mike Trout, Neil Walker, New York Mets, Phil Hughes, Phillippe Aumont, Prince Fielder, Richard Justice, Rick Porcello, Scott Boras, Stephen Drew, Tyler Matzek, Tyler Skaggs, Wade Davis, Wade Miley, What would it cost for the Mets to sign Bourn?, Willie Wilson, Wilpons finances, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke 2 Comments
Billy Beane's House of Lies and Simplified Math
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Another defense of Billy Beane and his "strategy" for 2012 is presented by Richard Justice MLB.com—link.
Let's deal in facts, shall we?
Here are the players the Athletics have acquired this winter and their 2012 salaries:
Seth Smith: $2.415 million.
Bartolo Colon: $2 million.
This is a total of $4.415 million for two exceedingly mediocre "name" new additions.
Here are the departures:
Trevor Cahill: $3.5 million (guaranteed through 2015 at $29 million with options in 2016 and 2017).
Gio Gonzalez: $3.25 million (arbitration eligible for the first time).
Craig Breslow: filed for arbitration and asked for $2.1 million; was offered $1.5 million.
Andrew Bailey: arbitration eligible for the first time; figure a contract of $1.5 million.
David DeJesus: $4.25 million (2-years, $10 million guaranteed from the Cubs).
Josh Willingham: $7 million (3-years, $21 million guaranteed from the Twins).
Hideki Matsui: was paid $4.25 million in 2011 and is unsigned for 2012.
Michael Wuertz: was paid $2.8 million in 2011 and is unsigned for 2012.
Rich Harden: was paid $1.5 million in 2011 and is unsigned for 2012.
All for a total of $29.85 million based on what they're guaranteed for 2012 or what they were paid in 2011.
These are the raises for players they've kept:
Kurt Suzuki: $1.6 million.
Coco Crisp: $250,000.
Brandon McCarthy: $3.275 million.
Grant Balfour: $25,000.
Brett Anderson: $2 million.
Daric Barton: $675,000
Joey Devine: $180,000
Adam Rosales: $175,000
That's a total of $8.18 million.
Adding $8.18 million+$4.415=$12.33 million.
Subtracting $12.33 million from $29.85 million comes to $17.52 million.
So from a payroll of $55 million in 2011, the A's have slashed a total of $17.52 million.
Justice writes:
When (Beane) looked at the A's after the 2011 season, he saw a third-place club that had neither the payroll nor the Minor League talent to make a dramatic improvement. He had $51 million in contract commitments for 2012 and a $55 million budget even before attempting to re-sign his starting outfield of David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp (only Crisp will be back).
"I had to look at it honestly," he said. "Look at the moves the Angels and Rangers have made. They're going to have payrolls rivaling the Red Sox and Yankees. It just seemed foolish to go forward with a third-place team that was losing significant parts. We felt we had to do something dramatic."
"Honestly"? Beane uses the word "honestly"?
Where is he getting these numbers from?
They could've dumped Crisp's $5.75 million and found another, cheaper center fielder somewhere who would do pretty much the same things Crisp does. Or they could've just stuck Josh Reddick out there and given him the chance to play every day. What did they need Crisp for?
McCarthy just had his first season of moderate health after bouncing from the White Sox to the Rangers and having repeated shoulder problems—which also cost him eight starts in 2011—and failing as a top prospect. The only way the Athletics were able to sign him was because he was short of options for a rotation spot. He's their new ace?
Someone would take Balfour and his fastball.
Barton was acquired in the Mark Mulder trade (one of the prior teardowns) and Beane clings to him as if he's hoping against hope that someday he'll fulfill that potential.
The mischaracterizations and fabrications inherent in Moneyball—the book and the movie—are continuing unabated and unchallenged. Replete with salable buzzwords implying the same party line for his constituency, it goes on and on.
There's a separation from rebuilding and collecting prospects and ratcheting up the rhetoric to maintain the veneer of knowing what one's doing, having a plan and executing it.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing?
Lies.
Fabrications.
Political-style calculations.
And the masses are still buying it.
Under no circumstances am I questioning the prospects nor the basis for making the trades of Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey. We don't know about the players he received and won't know for awhile.
That's not the point.
The point is that he's spewing the same garbage he's been spewing for years in a self-interested, self-absolving manner to shun the responsibility for the failures of the teams he built.
They've failed to meet expectations when they were supposed to contend and now they're going to meet expectations by falling to 95 losses.
But it's not Billy's fault.
I don't want to be sold something by a clever marketer/con-artist who's still clutching and using this nonsensical and faulty biography.
Beane's become a "means to an end" executive and that end is to hold onto that aura of "genius" that was created by Moneyball. There are still those that believe it and take his word for why he does what he does—they don't bother to check.
Is it because they trust him? That they want to protect him? Or is it because they're afraid of what they might find if they dig for facts?
The A's are going to have a lower payroll and they're going to be much worse than they could've been with worse players than they had because of this "strategy" that is played up in the latest piece about Beane.
When does this stop?
When will the true objective reality be examined and cited?
January 22, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged Adam Rosales, Andrew Bailey, Athletics 2012 payroll, Bartolo Colon, Billy Beane, Brett Anderson, Coco Crisp, Craig Breslow, Criticism of Billy Beane, Daric Barton, David DeJesus, Gio Gonzalez, Grant Balfour, Hideki Matsui, Joey Devine, Josh Reddick, Josh Willingham, Kurt Suzuko, Mark Mulder, Michael Wuertz, MLB.com, Moneyball, Moneyball book, Moneyball inconsistencies, Moneyball movie, Rich Harden, Richard Justice, Seth Smith, Trevor Cahill 3 Comments