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New cases are down, recoveries are up but it's too early to call it a trend
by Kwaku Akoi | May 17, 2020 | Coronavirus
For the past 7 days, the number of new Covid-19 cases in Ghana has consistently declined. The number of recoveries spiked on Thursday May 14th and has shot up by an additional 394 as of this writing. This may seem like good news but it's too early to call it a trend.
From the chart above one can observe that about 7 days ago, the number of new cases recorded roughly equaled the total number of recoveries that had been recorded to date. Since then, the two charts have diverged quite rapidly.
The total number of recoveries has jumped sharply from 494 to 1754 in a span of 7 days. The number of new cases has consistently dropped from a high of 437 a week ago to 97 today.
But it's too early to call it a trend.
Most experts concur that the incubation period for SARS-Cov2 (the coronavirus that causes Covid-19) extends up to 14 days. This means that some people who are infected today, may not show up in the data till 2 weeks from now.
As such most guidelines for deciding if the spread is slowing down (aka past the peak) recommend observing a consistent decline in new cases for a period of about 2 weeks.
Still a 7 day streak is definitely a bit of good news, albeit a cautious one.
If countries that are well past their peak are anything to go by, this pandemic is very difficult to overcome. It's not uncommon to see a few days of decline in cases only for it to spike suddenly.
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