Alabama football: On Bama fatigue, and what happens from here
David Wasson | 2 months ago
Once the disco-style lights had been extinguished and the social-media posts of crazy Ed Orgeron blissfully cursing up a storm in the LSU locker room after the top-ranked Tigers downed Alabama, the question on the table is where does the Crimson Tide go from here?
The answer is a complicated one. Surely the Crimson Tide will drop — for now — out of the top 4 in the media and coaches polls as well as the College Football Playoff rankings. How far they drop is almost completely dependent on 1 intangible characteristic …
Alabama Fatigue.
There are those, and they are legion, that are plenty sick and tired of Alabama being a part of the — if not the entire — conversation when it comes time to crown a college football champion. Just as how the world almost unconsciously roots for the underdog, the perennial favorite (see: Yankees, New York) becomes the easiest of targets.
And in the beauty pageant world of college football, where what the cognoscenti believes is almost as important as actual wins and on-field performance, voters and CFP committee members could easily slide the Crimson Tide one or two spots back from where they might truly belong because of Alabama Fatigue.
Alabama coach Nick Saban seems to understand this exact thing, recognizing postgame that the Tide's future in 2019 is most decidedly not in their hands after falling 46-41 to LSU.
"We don't really control our own destiny, but if we finish the season the right way, we can see where it takes us," Saban said. "We've been in this situation before."
Yes, Alabama has been in this position before. A couple times, to be precise.
In 2015, then-No. 2 Alabama lost 43-37 to No. 15 Ole Miss and had to battle back to eventually win the SEC West, beat Florida in the SEC title game, thump Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl and outlast Clemson 45-40 in the CFP title game.
Two years later, the top-ranked Crimson Tide lost to No. 6 Auburn 26-14 and seemingly saw their hopes for a 17th national title evaporate in the Lee County haze. But Alabama caught a break the very next week when No. 6 Georgia upset No. 2 Auburn in the SEC title game and No. 8 Ohio State upset No. 4 Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game — allowing Alabama to slide into the No. 4 spot in the CFP rankings.
From there, Alabama beat Clemson in the semifinals and famously subbed in freshman Tua Tagovailoa for Jalen Hurts at halftime against Georgia en route to a 26-23 overtime win and a 17th crown.
For Alabama to make it into its record 6th CFP bracket, a few things will need to happen. First, the Tide need pollsters to have an open enough mind to factor in the 2nd half of Saturday's game instead of just the 1st. Alabama rallied hard against LSU, and while the Tide never had the ball in their hands with the chance to take the lead, they kept the Tigers playing to the very end.
Next, Alabama just became LSU's biggest fans. The Tide want the Tigers to run the table — at Ole Miss and at home against Arkansas and Texas A&M shouldn't be a problem — and then beat the SEC East winner like a drum in Atlanta. A stronger LSU means Saturday's 5-point loss weighs well when considering Alabama's resume.
After that, Alabama needs Baylor and Minnesota to lose at some point along the way to eliminate all but LSU, Ohio State and Clemson from the unbeaten ranks. From there, it truly becomes a beauty contest among 1-loss teams.
That seems like a lot, of course. But in the world of college football, the ball bounces funny every weekend. It is almost as likely that ALL the unbeaten teams could lose at some point in the next couple weeks and Alabama could find itself right back in the Top 2.
In the immediate future, of course, what Alabama can control is its own play. A trip to Mississippi State next week could cure what ailed the Tide on Saturday. Senior day two weeks later against Western Carolina is a pure cupcake. And the annual faceoff with No. 11 Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium is a prime spot to get a big win and give decision-makers a final positive look.
Saban, naturally, isn't even looking that far ahead. One would almost think he had to be talked out of a Saturday night practice once everybody left town to get back to work on improvement.
"We don't want to waste a failure," Saban said. "There's a lot of lessons to be learned from things that we did and didn't do today. I think that everybody has got to make a commitment to finish the season the right way."
That starts immediately. The road back to national title contention is murkier now than it was a 2:29 p.m. CT on Saturday afternoon. But it is a road Alabama has traveled before, and is hungry now to do it all over again.
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David Wasson
An APSE national award-winning writer and page designer, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @TheSharpDW
Comments Section
LSUSMC 2 months ago
The Alabama fatigue angle is going to be interesting to watch. Bama has always gotten the benefit of the doubt before. Will they this time? We will know in about a month.
Alabama Tin Horns 2 months ago
I agree. Probably because they have made the most of it when they got the chance.
UGAGrad417 2 months ago
Bama doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt this year. They haven't beaten anyone.
ArmyROTCBAMA 2 months ago
Every time time we've gotten it we've succeeded.
MullenItOver 2 months ago
Forget benefit of the doubt. We'll see a lot more on the field. Both Bama and UGA have to deal with Auburn. November almost always ends up clearing up confusion for the playoff committee.
UsmcDawg 2 months ago
Took a brain to figure out that Nov matters.
Jasond669 2 months ago
They didn't get beat by south Carolina
UGARMYRet 2 months ago
"Surely the Crimson Tide will drop — for now — out of the top 4…" Guess again. Bama holds on to the #4 spot in both polls, there's still magic in that name regardless of how tired everyone is of hearing how great they are. Penn State took the hit Bama should have taken.
crimsongrits 2 months ago
Losing by 5 points to #1 sure beats losing to an unranked South Carolina team that just lost to App State. The job is to pick the top four teams, not to consider Bama fatigue or Bama hate. Personally, I don't believe Bama is a top 4 team but UGA will not jump them with a loss against SC unless you beat LSU in the SEC Championship game. Good luck with that!
Bruddaman50 2 months ago
While I agree with you for the most part, there is one stark contrast. Bama has 1 loss (granted, that's to a higher ranked team), but really no signature wins. I guess one could make a theoretical argument about the win against aTm, since the aggies were ranked #24 at the time. But still that's not that impressive. While UGA has a loss as well (granted that's to an unranked USC), they also have wins against 2 ranked teams. And those 2 wins are against teams that are still ranked in the top 25. Bama only has 1 remaining game against a ranked opponent (Auburn). UGA also only has one remaining ranked opponent (again Auburn). However, UGA is in the drivers seat for the SEC East. Which means that they'll probably be in Atlanta facing ANOTHER ranked team. Therefore, UGA will have faced 4 ranked teams & be the SEC East champ. Whereas Bama will have only faced 3 (really only 2 & a half since A&M is no longer ranked). UGA's resume' is still stronger than Bama's even with their loss to USC.
Deacon Dawg 2 months ago
I remember a guy saying something like " only conference winners should be in playoffs".
RollTide_N_Colorado 2 months ago
For as terrible as Bama played, the mistakes, turnovers, penalties, and Tua being off for the first half, and they had a chance to win it at the end. Proud of my boys. Rematch will be very different in the CFP if they get that opportunity. Bama has a lot of growing up to do, and I'm sure this helped.
Bama never had the ball with a chance to win. Keep looking for another do over opportunity.
sds1967 2 months ago
That do over in New Orleans in 2011 was sweet. Maybe, maybe not we will get another chance.
Enjoy the past. I'm loving the present.
BAYOUBOB 2 months ago
This team is battle tested. If you believe you are the best then you do not care who you face and if that is Bama again then so be it…NEXT.
Love it. You won't have Joe Burrow next year. #1 LSU vs #4 Bama in ATL in CFP Semis. Could happen.
unaffiliated 2 months ago
And a lot of Alabama fans are pretending as if LSU played this perfect game, was 100% healthy and have no room for improvement in a second game also. Next game: punt the ball out of bounds instead of straight to a kid who will be a top 15 NFL draft pick in a few months. And play deep zone instead of press man when you are up by 2 TDs with less than 2 minutes left. That's 14 points off the board for Alabama right there.
Look folks. I am going to use your own self-serving argument on Clemson 48-16 (really 55-16) against you. Where Alabama has gotten to coast against unranked teams and a terrible OOC schedule all season long, LSU had Texas in the best game the Longhorns have played all season, had to play then-undefeated Florida plus a jacked-up Auburn squad with 6 legit NFL prospects on defense trying to save their season. Meanwhile the best team that Bama has played prior was a Texas A&M team that Clemson and Auburn had already broken in half.
This LSU team isn't being led by Jordan Jefferson (who had some ability but was ruined by horrible coaching). This LSU team is being led by the Heisman winner and #1 pick in the draft. So yeah, keep thinking that it is 2011.
ripov 2 months ago
^what he said
I can agree with some of that argument. My question for an LSU fan would be, who would you rather play? Alabama again or someone else? Not taking anything away from LSU and their win last night, I think they would rather not have to face Alabama again.
hell, nobody ever wants to play the same team again that they beat in a reasonably close game.
Statistically, you almost never want to face the same team again in the same season.
Tim Rupert 2 months ago
RT N Colorado. 'Rematch will be very different in the CFP."
I'm not sure what that means? Seems like LSU would have an even better chance. Not having to face 95.000 or so Bama fans.
Also, before the game LSU thought they could win. Now they know they can.
Don't overlook the dejavu here. Your theory falls short if you remember Alabama won a NC against LSU AFTER LSU beat us in the regular season. I don't actually believe our defense is good enough this year to do that, but take away the 17 points in turnovers last night and the result could have been different.
Take away the 17 points in turnovers? Are you kidding me?? Ok, fine. Let's take those away. Forget about those 17 points, done.
But, if we take away THOSE mistakes, then let's apply that BOTH ways. Take away the botched punt coverage. Racey McMath should've just held on to the face mask, brought him down, & the Tigers give up 15 yards & not the TD. (That's 7 points). Take away the 66 yard TD pass against Stingley, since he was being distracted by his own sideline (another 7 points). And take away the 85 yard TD late in the game, due to said freshman DB playing press coverage with a 12 point lead under 2 minutes (another 7). Take away the breakdown on special teams that allowed a extra point to get blocked (1 point).
Hmmm?? Ok. We will forget about those 17 points off of Bama's miscues. And you forget about those 22 points of LSU's miscues. By my math, that's a net of 5 additional points for LSU. The Tigers win by 10, instead of 5. That sounds logical to me!?!? You can't have it BOTH ways.
crimsongrits. I know about the playing a team the second time results. Georgia lost to Auburn and then beat them in 2017 SECCG.
It's kinda like looking at Ohio St. They may be the best team this year, but who have they really played. Until they do, we won't know.
After last years NCG, and Bama's schedule, I felt the same way about them going into the LSU game.
After Saturday, I just don't see any reason to believe this years Alabama team has that in them.
Aboveaverage 2 months ago
I could care less for either Alabama or LSU but love college football . If anyone who knows football watched that game Saturday night thought the better team one than you don't know football. Tua's fumble without being touched as he's heading in to the end zone takes away 7 off the jump , punter drops a snap that hits him in the hand in LSU field goal range spots LSU 3 , official makes dumb call on catch on the 1 yard line that gives LSU 1st and goal instead of a field goal , tua throws pick right before the half , LSU capitalizes and 7 more . Point is LSU played flawless and deserved the win but when bama finally woke up they dominated whole second half out scoring LSU 27-13 in final 2 quarters if you don't believe that they dominated just check second half stats . I'm not trying to take anything away from LSU they have a great team but if Alabama plays 4 quarters they win by14-21points
AUforever 2 months ago
How would you know Bama would win a rematch? They might just get beat worse!
srg 2 months ago
I don't see it being very different at all. Just flip the score if tua and team are on their A game and LSU somehow chokes. LSU is just a different kind of team right now I don't see that happening.
But that's besides the point. You guys have to play a real defense soon. No more of this 50 point 500+ yards and the tigers in Death Valley can attest.
I knew that there was gonna be at least one of you Bama fans out there that was gonna start making excuses. As surely as death & taxes, there had to be at least one (probably thousands more) of you with the excuses.
As for the game itself, LSU could have & SHOULD have beaten the tide a lot worse. The Tigers special teams played like crap. Missed tackle/ face mask for a punt return TD. Blocked extra point. That's 8 points right there. Our true freshman DB got caught taking instructions from the sidelines for a TD. The same freshman DB playing press coverage with a 12 point lead under 2 minutes? WHY? They should've had 4 safeties dropped 20 yards off the ball. That's inexplicable. And don't start whining about the refs, because for EVERY "controversial call" that went for LSU, I can show you another that went Bama's way. (Burrows first incompletion? The WR was basically horse collared. Face mask on Burrow's run that didn't get called, thereby forcing a FG. And there's others). So don't start throwing out excuses about the refs. And as for mistakes? That goes BOTH ways. If you're gonna use mistakes as an excuse for why Bama didn't win. Then LSU gets to use that same logic to show why they should've beaten the tide WORSE.
As for your SOS? There's not a lot to say. The teams that you've faced from the East definitely don't help your case. LSU has beaten Vandy & Florida. Vandy ain't all that, but Florida is. That's a lot better than Tennessee & South Carolina. Your non conference is a JOKE. And from the West, the only team that has a pulse that you've beaten is aTm. That's not that impressive. Personally, I think that the tide will lose to Auburn. I could be wrong, but they've got an outstanding defense, especially up front.
Regardless, of what happens later on, you can drop the excuses. Whether those excuses be about Tua's injury or "mistakes". Isn't that what y'all told us last year when Devin White was suspended for the first half of the game. "NO EXCUSES"?? I guess that doesn't apply for Bama fans?? lol
Your the one who said "take away turnovers" blah blah blah……that's like saying if someone had made a tackle they wouldn't have scored…or we would have won if we scored more points than the other team…
Sorry was meant for Crimsongrits
Will people quit it with this? Sincerely, will they? FOR THE UMPTEENTH TIME THE COMMITTEE HAS NEVER CHOSEN A TEAM WITH AN INFERIOR RECORD OVER ANOTHER. It has not happened. It will not happen.
If Minnesota, Oregon, Oklahoma, Baylor, Clemson or Utah finish with more wins than Alabama by virtue of winning the conference title game that Alabama isn't going to play in, they get in. Period.
You know what? If LSU goes 12-0 and LOSES in the conference title game to UGA, THEY STILL GET IN OVER ALABAMA. You know why? Because 12-1 beats 11-1. (And then there is the matter of HEAD TO HEAD IN TUSCALOOSA.)
Alabama has no realistic shot at the playoff. Ohio State and Alabama got in the playoff in the past because there were only 3 teams with better records those years. That isn't happening this year.
You should stop trying to predict the future. It looks foolish.
I am not predicting the future. I am going on the committe's own history and their own stated criteria. But if you have an example of the committee picking a team with an inferior record over another, let's hear it. It hasn't happened and it won't happen because the committee – made of current/former coaches, ADs, university presidents etc. AND NOT JOURNALISTS – would have an impossible job of explaining themselves TO THEIR OWN PROFESSIONAL BRETHREN why a team with less wins and/or more losses got leapfrogged. The media is willing to belch out ridiculous nonsense like USC is better than LSU or Washington is better than Miami all day long because they aren't accountable to anyone. That's why we got rid of the polls, first for the BCS and then for the playoff, in the first place. But the committee members are accountable to other memberrs of their profession. Meaning that if 12-1 Utah gets left out in favor of 11-1 Alabama, they'll have to explain themselves to the Utah AD and the Pac-12 commissioner.
That's why the fantasies that everyone is slinging is exactly that. It would be one thing were Alabama and the SEC still dominating college football. They aren't. Alabama lost title games to Ohio State and twice to Clemson with their defense looking terrible each time. Add that to Auburn losing to FSU and there is no reason to give Alabama and the SEC the benefit of the doubt anymore. That is why the people talking about leaving a 13-0 Clemson out were nuts. The ACC is 3-1 against the SEC in the past 4 title game matchups. (Alabama beat Kelly Bryant's Clemson in the first round.)
SECxualHealing 2 months ago
…is this a veiled reference to UCF?
He is showing his inability to think logically. It must be that mile-high Colorado air!
Maybe unaffiliated can find a way for the Buffaloes to be relevant in the next 20 years.
KirbySmart 2 months ago
It's kind of funny how they came back in an old fashioned Bama sort of way–their defense (temporarily) shut down Joe with good pocket pressure, and they fed the ball to yet another big, dread-ponytailed Bama back who for a couple of series looked totally in control, and then they exploded with deep balls (not necessarily slants) to their lanky receivers. It was just funny watching it when I though Bama might come back being like "wow, they might win this in a 2012 style, and how ironic".
I thought same thing
Hazen75 2 months ago
Alabama was caught looking ahead to their headline game against powerhouse Western Carolina.
AO 2 months ago
There is no logical way Alabama is in over Georgia or most one loss teams. Georgia has wins over 2 Top 15 teams and Alabama has none.
What Alabama still has is the infamous "eye test" awarded to them by some for excellent history. I am an Alabama fan.
Alabama will need lots of chaos to get into the Final Four. That is due to at the end of season, the best win they might have (if they win) will be over a 3 loss Auburn.
It seems likely that many other one loss teams will have a better resume.
If Georgia wins out, Alabama has almost no chance. I believe Georgia can beat LSU due to the defense, but that is another fun debate.
Like it or not, the FF Committee has placed total wins as the top criteria. If your schedule turns out to be weaker like Alabama or Clemson this year, there is no room for error.
More likely there will again be one loss teams to decide on. Conference Champs come into play then. Going forward, Oklahoma and Oregon would be in ahead of Alabama due to schedule if they do not loose again. A one loss Penn or Minn or OHS would be. A one loss LSU would be and a one loss Georgia would be. A one loss Alabama or Clemson is most likely out. Many teams would have to pick up loss #2 for Alabama to get in.
JTF 2 months ago
Of course Bama would not get in over a 1-loss UGA, who would be SEC Champs. No one is even suggesting that.
But for now Bama is #4 and UGA #5. Don't try to find logic in the rankings.
Huh? UGA is irrelevant. Meaning that if they go undefeated the rest of the season they are in. If they don't, they're a 2 loss team and they aren't. Period.
Alabama no longer has "the eye test" because of 48-16. As Alabama no longer has a dominant defense and really hasn't since 2012 (in 2015 and to a degree even 2017 they had to win shootouts) their "mystique" since 2nd and 26 has been the idea that Tua is the best player in the country. Now that Tua has lost back-to-back head-to-head matchups against other future high NFL draft picks (Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow) that's gone too. Yes, Tua was injured in both games, but you can't punish other teams for Tua's inability to stay healthy. Especially since we don't KNOW that a healthy Tua would have beaten LSU or Clemson because the only elite team that Tua has actually beaten was 2017 UGA, and that was a game that Tua came in at halftime after UGA spent the entire offseason gameplanning for Hurts.
Sorry, but at present Clemson is the #1 program in the country right now. They've won 2 of the last 3 titles and – unlike Bama – they're undefeated with their current QB.
Of the one loss teams, who would you bet on to beat Bama on a neutral field? Exclude UGA because it is not relevant.
Am I the only one who thinks it is funny that a fan of a team that has not been relevant since it took a 5th down to help them win a game 30 years ago is on a Saturday's Down South page telling everyone what is and what ain't gonna happen? Sound like he needs a job with Danny Kannel!
Absolutely Tin Horns.
96 Gator 2 months ago
Uh, what does it matter what team someone is a fan of?
You know Chris Fowler is a Colorado grad and I put a lot more credability in a lot of what he has to say than any Bama grad that I know of.
I am not saying this guy here is right or wrong, but to bring into an arguement what school a person is a fan of as a point to declare their argument invalid is ignorant.
DoubleOsevn 2 months ago
At present LSU is the number one team in the country. We really don't care about last years Clemson team because it doesn't exist today. Players graduated and were replaced. Same for every other team. What is irrelevant is anything you did in any other year but this one.
I don't understand why you all forget that losses are more important than wins! If you beat every opponent on your schedule and lose to — I don't know, an unranked team like South Carolina– that just lost to App State, and POOF! The committee looks at who the 1 loss teams lost to and UGA just doesn't make the cut. If you want a title then quit whining about Alabama and win EVERY game on your schedule. And if you have to lose, let it be against a top 10 team.
Losses are never more important than wins. The committee has made this very clear.
The G fan 43 2 months ago
It all depends on Oklahoma and Oregon…if one of those teams end up one loss conference champs they will be in…you already have 2 spots taken… there's no way Ohio State or Clemson is going to loose…then the sec champ is in…I just don't see two teams from sec getting in…I wish it was an 8 team playoff…you put the conference champs in from the so called power 5 and three wild cards…I also wish every team in power 5 had 8 conference games and your other 4 games had to be against other power 5 teams…no more garbage games…as a Georgia fan…I didn't need to see them play Murray state..or Arkansas state…also that would cut down on everyone crying about the strength of schedule thing…it would sure make for some interesting games…but I know that's just a dream…
WarEagle342 2 months ago
They were wiped off the field by a vastly superior team at 33 to 13. Whenever they played like the little train that could LSU simply stuffed them. Not a top ten team and may not even beat Auburn This game reminded me of Saban at Mich State against Tom Osborne at Nebraska. People and press prostitutes that continue to pump sunshine in need to finally understand there are two teams in the SEC alone that will finish ahead of them. Maybe they can play Notre Dame in a cry baby bowl. I am rooting for Baylor and Monnesota to play in the CFP finals. LSU Ohio State will be a great game. Enjoy it Tide fans. Your run and reign is finished.
Well, there is no Bama fatigue from regular polls. They are still # 4. So that idea is shot down.All they have to do is win out and LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson win out. They are in.
UsmcDawg, you are likely right. Alabama always gets the benefit of the doubt. And they have had the teams to back it up.
But after last years NCG result, and now they've gone 0-2 against ranked teams, I think it could be the worst thing for them if they do get into the play-offs.
If they are given that benefit, and unlike recent results they get knocked out in the first round, the Alabama fatigue would be at an all time high. That could backfire on them down the road.
Does anyone honestly think Alabama isn't one of the top 4 teams in the country? I don't think so unless you're a hater. If we play better then anything can happen. Roll Tide.
ArmyROTCBAMA, what makes you think they are one of the top 4?
We can all point to Georgia losing to SC- great point. After that? At least Georgia has beaten two ranked teams, No.10 and No.15. They do have accomplishments to point to. They also may have the best defense in CFB.
My point is what has Alabama done lately? They got destroyed the last time they faced a top 25 team, and they followed that up by losing to the next ranked team (LSU) they played. 0-2 against ranked teams doesn't instill the normal Alabama confidence in me.
It's not so cut and dry this year…
BigBlue02 2 months ago
Bama should be considered as one of the best teams in college football this year. Top 4? That may be a stretch (AU alum here, but not a UA Hater) due to sheer number of quality teams with the same or better record than Bama. Without a tremendous amount of chaos in the last remaining weeks, there are legitimately 5 other teams that are willing to try to make the same argument as Bama. Factor in the 5 undefeated teams still standing, this season screams for the 8 team CFP expansion.
TroyMT 2 months ago
It will take a lot of chaos similar to 2011. Bama weak schedule will keep them out this year.
We will need a lot of help.
ADB 2 months ago
Let's overeact together. LSU has been around the top for a while. How AL comes back will reveal a lot. It's early yet.
CoastRoad 2 months ago
with a couple of blowouts in their last 3 games, alabama can sneak back into the playoffs at #4
David1234 2 months ago
I want Alabama to bring that same sorry defense to Clemson. So we can show them how it's done again. Maybe we can beat them by 60 this time. Alabama hasn't had a dominant defense in 5 years..the SEC sucks always overated. Alabama will look impressive against western Kentucky maybe they cann pass that eye test lmao
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