IN DEPTH: Brazil – the next big thing in offshore wind?
With the offshore wind industry so focused on Northern Europe, and to a lesser extent China and the US, it is easy to forget that there are other parts of the world that are prime for development.
One of the most promising is Brazil. It has one of the world's longest coastlines, a shallow continental shelf, consistently strong winds, a thriving turbine manufacturing sector and solid political support for the wind industry, as well as considerable offshore-oil expertise. But aside from one or two early-stage projects, the country has never been serious about offshore wind. Until now.
Last month, the new energy minister, Eduardo Braga, announced the first official studies into the country's offshore wind potential.
"I was pleasantly surprised. It is the first time the government has talked about offshore, which up to now has been a field of academic study," says Élbia Silva Gannoum (formerly Élbia Melo), the executive president of the Brazilian wind-power association, ABEEólica.
The resource is nothing short of enormous. According to a 2012 study by the Proventos wind consultancy, there is 340GW of potential in just two relatively short stretches of Brazil's Atlantic coast — 130GW off the Northeast and 210MW off Rio Grande do Sul.
Winds in these two offshore regions are strong and constant, varying between seven and 12 metres per second.
They also happen to be where the highest onshore wind potential is, and where many of the leading turbine makers have already built factories. They are also close to densely populated areas, reducing the need for long transmission lines, and have very shallow waters that stretch some 200km from the coast.
"We are talking of water depths of five to 50 metres, but we have enormous areas available up to 15 metres," says Proventos owner Alexandre Pereira.
"I can see wind farms of over 10GW being built [in these areas] since there are no restrictions."
A more detailed wind study of the waters off Rio Grande do Sul, carried out last year by the Camargo & Schubert consultancy, pegged offshore potential at 80GW, with another 34GW possible in seawater lagoons, at depths of ten to 50 metres.
"The waters are shallow enough to allow the use of the most economically viable foundations deploying technology currently used for oil platforms," said the consultancy's report.
Although the raw data and socioeconomic conditions are a cause for optimism, full-scale economic build-out is still at least five years away, according to Silva Gannoum. She says any offshore development will depend on government incentives, similar to those put in place for onshore wind in the 1990s or to the ones currently being used to kick-start PV.
"If the government offers differentiated conditions [and pays higher prices] for offshore wind power in the [national energy] tenders, it could take off," she says.
Pereira agrees. "You need to have the political will to start offshore," he says, adding that Brazil would first have to invest in offshore wind measurement campaigns and geological and marine conditions studies.
Like elsewhere in the world, offshore wind will be more expensive than onshore, and higher costs can lead to lower returns. A 2009 study by the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul said that the internal rate of return of offshore wind farms in the South would be about 3% compared to 13% of onshore wind farms.
Federal power company Eletrosul, which partially sponsored the new wind atlas in Rio Grande do Sul, believes it is too soon to implement offshore wind.
"For Brazil, which is a continental country, with large onshore land extensions, offshore wind power plants don't seem to be a viable alternative in the short term, especially [due] to the high cost of implementation", engineering director Ronaldo Custódio tells Recharge.
"Brazil's onshore potential is 350GW, and, with just 6GW in operation, I see onshore wind as infinite," says Silva Gannoum. "But it is good news that the government wants to study offshore wind and, due to the technology advances, it's a good for Brazil to start looking at offshore."