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EU, ΙMF and Greece and Spending cut
Walther von Oldenburg
Location : Oldenburg
Re: EU, ΙMF and Greece and Spending cut
Walther von Oldenburg on Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:07 pm
That's exactly what I've been arguing all along - yet some people treat fighting Anglo-American influence in the world like a goal in itself. Other than trying to have maximally good relationship with America, what can we do? Germny has only 80 mln people and even if we annexed Austria, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Flemish part of Belgium and German part of Switzerland (basically - all West-Germanic peoples who previously called themselves "Deutsch"), it would put our population at the level of maybe 115-120 mln. We really aren't in a position to play a superpower. The Japanese also learned their lession after ww2 and they've been faring well ever since.
And in meanwhile Greece has just rejected EU help in a referendum.
Location : Brasilia
Kyo on Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:41 pm
Walther von Oldenburg wrote: And in meanwhile Greece has just rejected EU help in a referendum.
whir
whir on Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:44 pm
Calling those terms help is an overstatement.
Kyo wrote:
A referendum was just held in Greece over austerity measures implementation of which was needed to get help from EU and IMF.
And they will not be implemented - 61% of Greeks voted against them.
Prince Darling
Prince Darling on Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:07 pm
The greek referendum is great news for EU loving people (that actually want to see the organization function) and a bad day for the gangsters/thugs of EU (more or less every dogmatic German politician)
Werewolf on Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:24 pm
ÎMF help is equal to the help of british empire with smallpox infested blankets. You get dictated terms to get a loan that is bound to massive interest, meaning it is like you have already an overcharged creditcard with 10.000 Euro, the credit company wants it repaid untill next week and what you do is, you get another 15.000 credit from a different bank and repay the 10.000 credit you have overcharged to win time untill your 2nd Credit is called for repaying. That is what IMF is doing on a regular basis, they never help, they are a private bank that is connected directly to FED a jewish controlled private Central Bank, they do not want your well being, they are corrupt geopolitics angeda pushers.
Help from IMF... you can expect more help from organ mafia, they at least call you an ambulance after stealing your kidney.
franco on Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:57 pm
This guy has a good grasp of the financial situation not just in Europe;
http://cluborlov.blogspot.fr/2015/06/the-care-and-feeding-of-financial-black.html?m=1
Location : Zagreb , Croatia
zg18 on Mon Jul 06, 2015 3:01 am
There is too much pointless debate Greeks Vs Germans , problem is with Euro, it is flawed (monetary but not fiscal union , it`s like sex without protection and then wonder how girl got "knocked up"). That was not an accident , it was designed as such purposefully to dismantle European welfare state.
Cyberspec
Location : Terra Australis
Cyberspec on Mon Jul 06, 2015 3:01 am
Orlov is as usual great
Good to see a convincing win for the 'No' side....but the Germans aren't happy
German economy minister, Sigmar Gabriel, said that the results of the referendum had "torn down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise."
"With the rejection of the rules of the eurozone ... negotiations about a program worth billions are barely conceivable," Gabriel told Tagesspiegel paper.
"Tsipras and his government are leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness," he stressed.
The minister's words were echoed by the head of Germany's savings bank association (DSGV), Georg Fahrenschon, who concluded that Greece must now leave the euro bloc.
http://rt.com/news/271828-greece-referendum-no-vote/
Hard to escape the German vs Greeks thing since they're the ones with the most hardline stand.....understandable to a point since Deutsche Bank has the most to loose...it's apparently loaded with toxic debt
Walther von Oldenburg wrote: That's exactly what I've been arguing all along - yet some people treat fighting Anglo-American influence in the world like a goal in itself. Other than trying to have maximally good relationship with America, what can we do? Germny has only 80 mln people and even if we annexed Austria, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Flemish part of Belgium and German part of Switzerland (basically - all West-Germanic peoples who previously called themselves "Deutsch"), it would put our population at the level of maybe 115-120 mln. We really aren't in a position to play a superpower. The Japanese also learned their lession after ww2 and they've been faring well ever since.
Germany˙s problem was not that it wasn`t in position to play a superpower , German basic problem was inability to correctly estimate it`s own strength and underestimate others (both Kaiser and Fuhrer alike). Making everyone enemies along the way is always sure trip to defeat.
magnumcromagnon
Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan
magnumcromagnon on Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:00 am
Good, don't support the austerity any longer, considering how an IMF director just admitted that the 'Greek Bailout' of $290 billion under Samaras was a cover for a bailout for French and German banks, it makes the whole debate rather pointless of whether Greece should capitulate to ECB and IMF's austerity plans.
P.S. It's good to see Ferkel Merkel and her zealots squirm in their chairs lol!
Walther von Oldenburg on Mon Jul 06, 2015 3:48 pm
Future currently awaiting Greece is less than glorious, me thinks...
PapaDragon
Location : Fort Evil, Serbia
Thomas Piketty: "Germany has never repaid''
PapaDragon on Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:39 pm
Personally, I think that it is in Greece's best interest to leave EU, but I will add for argument's sake:
Before we all start goosestepping and praising our infallible Germanic rulers, we should take some time to read this very enlightening article by Thomas Piketty
Thomas Piketty: "Germany has never repaid."
In a forceful interview with German newspaper Die Zeit, the star economist Thomas Piketty calls for a major conference on debt. Germany, in particular, should not withhold help from Greece.
https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-has-never-repaid-7b5e7add6fff
This interview has been translated from the original German.
Since his successful book, "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," the Frenchman Thomas Piketty has been considered one of the most influential economists in the world. His argument for the redistribution of income and wealth launched a worldwide discussion. In a interview with Georg Blume of DIE ZEIT, he gives his clear opinions on the European debt debate.
DIE ZEIT: Should we Germans be happy that even the French government is aligned with the German dogma of austerity?
Thomas Piketty: Absolutely not. This is neither a reason for France, nor Germany, and especially not for Europe, to be happy. I am much more afraid that the conservatives, especially in Germany, are about to destroy Europe and the European idea, all because of their shocking ignorance of history.
ZEIT: But we Germans have already reckoned with our own history.
Piketty: But not when it comes to repaying debts! Germany's past, in this respect, should be of great significance to today's Germans. Look at the history of national debt: Great Britain, Germany, and France were all once in the situation of today's Greece, and in fact had been far more indebted. The first lesson that we can take from the history of government debt is that we are not facing a brand new problem. There have been many ways to repay debts, and not just one, which is what Berlin and Paris would have the Greeks believe.
"Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts. It has no standing to lecture other nations."
ZEIT: But shouldn't they repay their debts?
Piketty: My book recounts the history of income and wealth, including that of nations. What struck me while I was writing is that Germany is really the single best example of a country that, throughout its history, has never repaid its external debt. Neither after the First nor the Second World War. However, it has frequently made other nations pay up, such as after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, when it demanded massive reparations from France and indeed received them. The French state suffered for decades under this debt. The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.
ZEIT: But surely we can't draw the conclusion that we can do no better today?
Piketty: When I hear the Germans say that they maintain a very moral stance about debt and strongly believe that debts must be repaid, then I think: what a huge joke! Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts. It has no standing to lecture other nations.
ZEIT: Are you trying to depict states that don't pay back their debts as winners?
Piketty: Germany is just such a state. But wait: history shows us two ways for an indebted state to leave delinquency. One was demonstrated by the British Empire in the 19th century after its expensive wars with Napoleon. It is the slow method that is now being recommended to Greece. The Empire repaid its debts through strict budgetary discipline. This worked, but it took an extremely long time. For over 100 years, the British gave up two to three percent of their economy to repay its debts, which was more than they spent on schools and education. That didn't have to happen, and it shouldn't happen today. The second method is much faster. Germany proved it in the 20th century. Essentially, it consists of three components: inflation, a special tax on private wealth, and debt relief.
ZEIT: So you're telling us that the German Wirtschaftswunder ["economic miracle"] was based on the same kind of debt relief that we deny Greece today?
Piketty: Exactly. After the war ended in 1945, Germany's debt amounted to over 200% of its GDP. Ten years later, little of that remained: public debt was less than 20% . Around the same time, France managed a similarly artful turnaround. We never would have managed this unbelievably fast reduction in debt through the fiscal discipline that we today recommend to Greece. Instead, both of our states employed the second method with the three components that I mentioned, including debt relief. Think about the London Debt Agreement of 1953, where 60% of German foreign debt was cancelled and its internal debts were restructured.
"We need a conference on all of Europe's debts, just like after World War II. A restructuring of all debt, not just in Greece but in several European countries, is inevitable."
ZEIT: That happened because people recognized that the high reparations demanded of Germany after World War I were one of the causes of the Second World War. People wanted to forgive Germany's sins this time!
Piketty: Nonsense! This had nothing to do with moral clarity; it was a rational political and economic decision. They correctly recognized that, after large crises that created huge debt loads, at some point people need to look toward the future. We cannot demand that new generations must pay for decades for the mistakes of their parents. The Greeks have, without a doubt, made big mistakes. Until 2009, the government in Athens forged its books. But despite this, the younger generation of Greeks carries no more responsibility for the mistakes of its elders than the younger generation of Germans did in the 1950s and 1960s. We need to look ahead. Europe was founded on debt forgiveness and investment in the future. Not on the idea of endless penance. We need to remember this.
ZEIT: The end of the Second World War was a breakdown of civilization. Europe was a killing field. Today is different.
Piketty: To deny the historical parallels to the postwar period would be wrong. Let's think about the financial crisis of 2008/2009. This wasn't just any crisis. It was the biggest financial crisis since 1929. So the comparison is quite valid. This is equally true for the Greek economy: between 2009 and 2015, its GDP has fallen by 25%. This is comparable to the recessions in Germany and France between 1929 and 1935.
ZEIT: Many Germans believe that the Greeks still have not recognized their mistakes and want to continue their free-spending ways.
Piketty: If we had told you Germans in the 1950s that you have not properly recognized your failures, you would still be repaying your debts. Luckily, we were more intelligent than that.
ZEIT: The German Minister of Finance, on the other hand, seems to believe that a Greek exit from the Eurozone could foster greater unity within Europe.
Piketty: If we start kicking states out, then the crisis of confidence in which the Eurozone finds itself today will only worsen. Financial markets will immediately turn on the next country. This would be the beginning of a long, drawn-out period of agony, in whose grasp we risk sacrificing Europe's social model, its democracy, indeed its civilization on the altar of a conservative, irrational austerity policy.
ZEIT: Do you believe that we Germans aren't generous enough?
Piketty: What are you talking about? Generous? Currently, Germany is profiting from Greece as it extends loans at comparatively high interest rates.
ZEIT: What solution would you suggest for this crisis?
Piketty: We need a conference on all of Europe's debts, just like after World War II. A restructuring of all debt, not just in Greece but in several European countries, is inevitable. Just now, we've lost six months in the completely intransparent negotiations with Athens. The Eurogroup's notion that Greece will reach a budgetary surplus of 4% of GDP and will pay back its debts within 30 to 40 years is still on the table. Allegedly, they will reach one percent surplus in 2015, then two percent in 2016, and three and a half percent in 2017. Completely ridiculous! This will never happen. Yet we keep postponing the necessary debate until the cows come home.
ZEIT: And what would happen after the major debt cuts?
Piketty: A new European institution would be required to determine the maximum allowable budget deficit in order to prevent the regrowth of debt. For example, this could be a commmittee in the European Parliament consisting of legislators from national parliaments. Budgetary decisions should not be off-limits to legislatures. To undermine European democracy, which is what Germany is doing today by insisting that states remain in penury under mechanisms that Berlin itself is muscling through, is a grievous mistake.
"If we had told you Germans in the 1950s that you have not properly recognized your failures, you would still be repaying your debts. Luckily, we were more intelligent than that."
ZEIT: Your president, François Hollande, recently failed to criticize the fiscal pact.
Piketty: This does not improve anything. If, in past years, decisions in Europe had been reached in more democratic ways, the current austerity policy in Europe would be less strict.
ZEIT: But no political party in France is participating. National sovereignty is considered holy.
Piketty: Indeed, in Germany many more people are entertaining thoughts of reestablishing European democracy, in contrast to France with its countless believers in sovereignty. What's more, our president still portrays himself as a prisoner of the failed 2005 referendum on a European Constitution, which failed in France. François Hollande does not understand that a lot has changed because of the financial crisis. We have to overcome our own national egoism.
ZEIT: What sort of national egoism do you see in Germany?
Piketty: I think that Germany was greatly shaped by its reunification. It was long feared that it would lead to economic stagnation. But then reunification turned out to be a great success thanks to a functioning social safety net and an intact industrial sector. Meanwhile, Germany has become so proud of its success that it dispenses lectures to all other countries. This is a little infantile. Of course, I understand how important the successful reunification was to the personal history of Chancellor Angela Merkel. But now Germany has to rethink things. Otherwise, its position on the debt crisis will be a grave danger to Europe.
ZEIT: What advice do you have for the Chancellor?
Piketty: Those who want to chase Greece out of the Eurozone today will end up on the trash heap of history. If the Chancellor wants to secure her place in the history books, just like [Helmut] Kohl did during reunification, then she must forge a solution to the Greek question, including a debt conference where we can start with a clean slate. But with renewed, much stronger fiscal discipline.
This interview was translated by Gavin Schalliol.
Prince Darling on Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:56 pm
Walther von Oldenburg wrote: Future currently awaiting Greece is less than glorious, me thinks...
listening to german advice, turned greece into a third world country.
As Picketty said, its hard to take German moralizing on debt repayment serously, as they never repayed a debt in their history.
Werewolf on Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:38 pm
zg18 wrote: There is too much pointless debate Greeks Vs Germans , problem is with Euro, it is flawed (monetary but not fiscal union , it`s like sex without protection and then wonder how girl got "knocked up"). That was not an accident , it was designed as such purposefully to dismantle European welfare state.
+1 That was exactly the plan.
It is not the German advice it is the Goldman sucks and IMF advice. We have corrupt people in power Schäuble the wheelchair Charlie is well known for corruption like the the confirmed corruption of getting bribed with 100.000 DM cash from weapon smugglers so he keeps shut and he is today Finance Minister of Germany the "best economy in EU"... Like Organ Mafia Boss is head advicer of Surgeons and Doctors Foundation for Healthcare.
All EU leaders are members of Transantlantic bridge and other US NATO lobbiest groups and recieve direct orders what to do.
Quiting EU is the fastest way of regaining economy and nullifying or at least reducing debts.
zg18 on Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:45 pm
Prince Darling wrote:
There is nothing wrong with an austerity policy , if Greece had such policy few years before 2008 crash , it would be today in totally different position. Greece is not a proof that austerity doesn`t work , it is proof that austerity doesn`t work when you have de-facto bankrupt economy.
magnumcromagnon on Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:54 pm
zg18 wrote:
Austerity didn't work for Ukraine, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Russia, so go on trying to explain that? How about letting bankrupt banks go bankrupt, and not holding entire populations hostage at the point of a gun to prop them up?
TARP in the U.S. was used to prop up Western banks, same with EU bailouts, the whole German economic miracle happened because they had a 50% debt write down back in 1953, in which Greece recognized and supported, so it's time for Germany to return the favor, at least Greece didn't massacre millions of people in the process unlike Germany.
zg18 on Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:28 pm
magnumcromagnon wrote: Austerity didn't work for Ukraine, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Russia, so go on trying to explain that? How about letting bankrupt banks go bankrupt, and not holding entire populations hostage at the point of a gun to prop them up?
Austerity in Spain? Look at size of their debt relative to their GDP 2008 and today and honestly say this is austerity?
Ukrainian problem is not austerity , they suicided their economy by cutting trade links with Russia.
Austerity can only work if it is done on time , post-mortem doesn`t work. Right thing to do would be debt haircut and orderly exit from Eurozone , but it is politically impossible to do , hence today`s mess in EZ.
Kyo on Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:49 pm
zg18 wrote: Austerity can only work if it is done on time
On time or not, austerity leads to lower GDP which, in turn, leads to lower fiscal revenues and so, to lesser government expenditures, which in turn leads to lower GDP, turning the whole process into a spiraling black hole.
zg18 on Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:16 pm
Kyo wrote: On time or not, austerity leads to lower GDP which, in turn, leads to lower fiscal revenues and so, to lesser government expenditures, which in turn leads to lower GDP, turning the whole process into a spiraling black hole.
Yes austerity does lower GDP , but doesn`t necessarily means it lowers revenues. Most countries that do austerity started parallel process to bring grey economy into legal sphere and stronger tax and fiscal discipline. Austerity can work with structural reforms, Germans did it 10 years ago, my neighbours from Serbia are doing it successfully right now.
whir on Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:58 pm
But in the real world the reverse is not true.
Just like a lower GPD is not bad if the economic activity it reflects is based on actual trade while a bigger GPD based on creative accountancy is not necessarily desirable if there's basically a Ponzi scheme behind those numbers.
zg18 wrote: Yes austerity does lower GDP , but doesn`t necessarily means it lowers revenues. Most countries that do austerity started parallel process to bring grey economy into legal sphere and stronger tax and fiscal discipline. Austerity can work with structural reforms, Germans did it 10 years ago, my neighbours from Serbia are doing it successfully right now.
Austerity means accounting discipline not witchcraft economics, stripping people from their money is something different.
Location : Slovenia
medo on Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:08 pm
Austerity and structural reforms work fine if you do it with investments in real economy to open new jobs in industry, agronomy, transport and tourism. This is the way to reduce the numbers of employees in public sectors as they could get jobs in real economy sector to make a state cheaper and to increase incomes to the budget. Making austerity and structural reforms just for reforms themselves without investments in real sector will only increase unemployments and reduce the flow of the money as people will not have incomes to buy what they need and will have a negative influence on real economy too with the fall of sells of their products.
flamming_python
flamming_python on Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:20 pm
I'm enjoying the drama here to be honest; never expected Tsirpas to go as far as he has.
But I'm afraid that he hasn't really a leg to stand on in this standoff. He's really pissing off the big-boys and these guys are not the type that tolerate disloyalty - nor do they forgive it.
Harkening back to an old civil war maxim - "You, we won't shoot. You - we will hang"
whir on Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:42 pm
flamming_python wrote: But I'm afraid that he hasn't really a leg to stand on in this standoff. He's really pissing off the big-boys and these guys are not the type that tolerate disloyalty - nor do they forgive it.
Athens can always break the great taboo and print euros as a last resort.
Post n°100
Cyberspec on Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:40 am
Not sure if the Greeks are really without options since the referendum gamble has gained them some time.....The so called big boys are not what they once were...they're seriously wounded.
On the one hand, the US wants Greece to stay in the eurozone at any price for geopolitical reasons, whilst on the other Germany can't be seen going soft on the Greeks as that would open a can of worms down the line with other troubled economies in the EU.
So they're in a bind and facing many contradictions...at best they could potentially come up with some sort of temporary measure to kick the can down the road....but that's not a solution.....the same problem will raise it's head again when the time comes to make the next payment
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