Winners, losers, history, histrionics … what you need to know about Maxime Bernier's bitter farewell to the Conservative Party
By Tonda MacCharlesOttawa Bureau
Maxime Bernier's bitter farewell to the Conservative Party caught the attention of pundits. What does it mean for Canadian politics?
WINNERS: The clear immediate winners are federal Liberals. They will claim Andrew Scheer can't govern his caucus let alone a country. And if Bernier's new party takes off, garners candidates, donations, volunteer support and votes, the Liberals might just get a few seats out of it or at least keep a few they were worried about. Liberals win elections when right-wing support is divided or "split" among two or more parties — just as they did when former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney's coalition blew up, leaving the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec, the Reform Party in the West, and ensuring three successive Liberal majorities.
LOSERS: Andrew Scheer, the Conservative caucus, and the party's broader electoral organization. Bernier won 49 per cent support during the leadership race. Some of that support could flow to Bernier and make a difference, in the Liberals' favour, in ridings where margins are tight. Bernier revealed internal Conservative Party polls show Trudeau's response to the mercurial U.S. President Donald Trump "is popular" among Canadians, which he said explains Scheer's timidity. Bernier accused Scheer and his Conservative caucus of playing "identity politics," and "pandering" to buy ethnic votes just as, he says, the Liberals do. Scheer, who missed several chances to kick Bernier out before now, retorted Bernier is a political narcissist and loner, and Scheer says good riddance. None of that is good for party morale. It could backfire and galvanize support for Scheer this weekend.
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WHO IS MAXIME BERNIER? Bernier, 55, is a self-described libertarian, fiscal and "free-market" conservative. He revels in the "maverick" label. A snappy dresser with a year-round tan, he hails from Quebec's Beauce region, is the son of former longtime PC MP Gilles Bernier, and the father of two grown girls. Bernier studied economics, briefly practised law, supported the Quebec separatist side in the 1995 referendum, worked with PQ finance minister Bernard Landry, went on to work as an insurance executive and an economic consultant, before running in the 2006 federal election won by Harper's Conservatives.
As Harper's foreign affairs minister, he was forced to step down in disgrace after leaving classified documents at the apartment of his then-girlfriend, who had formerly had ties to bikers. Bernier returned to a junior minister's job in Harper's cabinet after being re-elected in 2011, and lost his bid to replace Harper as leader to Andrew Scheer, by the slimmest of margins after 13 rounds of voting.
DO CANADIANS WANT THE SORT OF PARTY BERNIER IS DESCRIBING? Hard to say. Depends if there is an appetite among Conservatives for it. Pollster Shachi Kurl, of the Angus Reid Institute, says there is a longstanding disconnect between a segment of the Conservative party's grassroots and the party establishment or leadership, when it comes to open discussion about issues deemed politically taboo: issues such as abortion or same-sex marriage, or political issues such as immigration and refugee policy, or supply management. So Bernier could find traction for his message and quickly build a new party infrastructure and fundraising. PC party elites long scoffed at the idea Preston Manning could succeed in building his Reform Party.
IS THIS DÉJÀ VU FOR CANADA'S RIGHT? It's too soon to tell. Sir John A. Macdonald's Tories were the original big blue Conservative coalition that built bridges with French Canadians. Conservative fortunes in Quebec crumbled after Robert Borden introduced conscription during the First World War, dooming the Tories there for more than a generation. It wasn't until Quebecer Brian Mulroney was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada that the broad national coalition came together again, largely on promises of renewing ties with Quebec. But Mulroney's PC Party splintered in the '90s over failed constitutional reform and fiscal issues. Mulroney's Quebec lieutenant Lucien Bouchard bolted and formed the Bloc Quebecois. The Reform Party was founded under a western populist leader, Preston Manning. The PCs watched from a drastically reduced parliamentary bench as Manning, too, realized the conservative movement must unite to win government.
He launched the United Alternative in 1999, only to lose his own leadership when the Canadian Alliance emerged to be led by Stockwell Day. It, too, then split into factions with MPs opposed to Day's leadership breaking off to form the Democratic Reform Caucus (DRC) in Parliament. Day was dumped as leader. Stephen Harper was elected to lead the Canadian Alliance. He quickly lured back the DRC defectors. Harper proposed and engineered a merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives in 2003. Harper won the leadership of the merged Conservative Party of Canada later that year, and held the Liberals under Paul Martin to a minority in 2004. Harper went on to win two minorities in 2006 and 2008, and a "strong, stable, national majority" government in 2011. When he finally resigned his seat in 2016,Harper cited among his top accomplishments his uniting of Conservatives, leaving behind a united party that elected Andrew Scheer one year later.
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