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Turkey's Relations with and Relevance for NATO
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
It should be remembered that Turkey's relations with NATO were not as smooth as perhaps some experts wished to think, even before the failed coup on 15 July 2016. For instance, back in November 2009 the AKP government was adamant that despite Turkish soldiers' participation in the ISAF mission they were not combat troops. Turkey's position at the time irked allies in NATO and the US in particular, and it has not changed since then. READ MORE
EGF Editro | Опубликовано на EGF: 24.06.2017	| Security
NATO and Turkey continue to need each other
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
In recent months, Turkey has been facing increasing difficulties with key NATO member states. The United States' growing reliance on Syrian Kurdish forces in Syria as a key force capable of effectively fighting Islamic State and US President Donald Trump's decision to arm Kurdish YPG units placed additional strains on bilateral US-Turkey relations, which have been sharply deteriorating since the July 2016 military coup and with Turkey's unsuccessful efforts to organize Fethullah Gulen's extradition from the US. READ MORE
EGF Editor | Опубликовано на EGF: 17.06.2017	| Security
Fall-out from Trump's Middle East Policy in the South Caucasus?
Trump's hard line approach towards Iran may derail ambitious plans to develop North-South trade and transport corridors in the South Caucasus.
On May 20, 2017, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on his first stop of his week-long international trip. The new US President chose the Saudi visit as a focal point for presenting key pillars of his Middle East policy. Delivering a speech to the Arab - Islamic - American Summit, President Trump stressed the significance of the fight against terrorism and the important role regional states have to play in that struggle. Another key point of his speech was tough criticism directed against Iran. READ MORE
EGF Editor | Опубликовано на EGF: 07.06.2017	| External Relations
China's "Belt and Road" Initiative: Game Changer for the South Caucasus
On 14-15 May 2017, 29 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, gathered in Beijing for the international forum of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The Forum was the biggest event since the launch of the 'One belt one Road' initiative put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. China invited countries and regions to jointly build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with at least five routes of economic cooperation. READ MORE
Armenia Takes Leading Position in CSTO
An Armenian general is now at the helm of the CSTO military alliance. This may prove to be a double edged sword for Armenia.
The South Caucasus is one of the battlefields in the current Russia-West confrontation. As a part of the former Soviet space, the region is perceived by Russia as an area of its legitimate "special interests." For the West, including the United States, NATO and the EU, the view of the region is defined by its role as a key transit route for Caspian energy resources to reach Europe circumventing Russia, and as an important gateway to exert influence in the nearby Middle East. Regional geopolitical competition is further complicated by the onset of Iran and Turkey. READ MORE
Iran-Russia Relations in the South Caucasus
Russia and Iran for the moment have shared interest in containing western and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus. In the longer term, however, their relationship in the region is likely to become more competitive than cooperative. READ MORE
Is US–Russia Rapprochement Still Possible?
The perspectives of the US – Russia relations under the Trump Administration is one of the key foreign policy issues hotly debated in political and expert circles both in the US, Russia and elsewhere. The steep deterioration of bilateral relations since the start of the third Presidential term of Vladimir Putin brought back into the scene almost forgotten terminology of "Cold War", "containment", "great power rivalry". READ MORE
The EU May Play Vital Role in Transforming Armenia
On March 21, 2017 Armenia and the EU initialed a new bilateral Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This is an important milestone in bilateral relations, especially taking into account Armenia's last minute withdrawal in 2013 from initialing its Association Agreement negotiated within the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership program. READ MORE
Turkey will reconcile with Syria
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that Turkey is heading to restore relations with Damascus. "We will expand our circle of friends. We have already begun to do so. We normalized our relations with Israel and Russia, and now, I am sure, we will do the same with Syria. We need it to be done", - said Yildirim, speaking on Turkish television. READ MORE
Adjusting the EU's Geopolitical Posture in the Eastern Neighborhood
by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
How could the EU best deal with a revisionist Russia who challenged the post-Cold War European security order, most notably in Ukraine and in Georgia? We should probably start from considering EU's current strategic options in its Eastern Neighbourhood. The key question here is what should be the EU's objective in this contested region? Is it to find a compromise solution with Moscow on how to fix the broken security order? Or is it to defend its shared values in the Eastern Neighbourhood, and to eventually annihilate the Russian power and influence? READ MORE
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EGF Affiliated Expert, Dr. Nika Chitadze, published on https://eurodialogue.eu/ a new article exploring different perceptions on globalization as a tool for shaping the modern world: "Trends in the Development of the Modern World: Globalization". READ MORE.
EGF Affiliated Expert Natalia Mirimanova co-authored a new report of the Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks, hosted by SIPRI, on: "Climate-related Security Risks in Central Asia". See the original news item and read the report here.
On 07-10 November 2019, George Niculescu, EGF Head of Research, co-chaired the 20th workshop of the Regional Stability in South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium on "Concrete Steps to Break the Deadlocks in the South Caucasus", held in Reichenau/Rax (Austria). Please click here for the workshop agenda, here for his speaking notes, and here for the ensuing policy recommendations.
On 09 July 2019, upon invitation from our information partner Political Science Association of Armenia, George Vlad Niculescu, EGF Head of Research, participated in 3rd session of European Club debates 2019, held in Yerevan (Armenia). See here his speaking points.
The Daily BriefJanuary 22, 2020
Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
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