NBA Preview, Tue Dec 1 – DraftKings
by RickRunGood | Dec 1, 2015 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, NBA | 0 comments
Jarrett Jack ($6,100) is jumping off my projections for tonight. The Brooklyn PG has logged heavy minutes for the Nets this season and is returning his owner big time points. He's quite volatile, but he's scored 32+ DK points in six of his last nine. He earns upticks in both matchup and Vegas line tonight. The Nets play to an average of 200.15 for their O/Us this season, while tonight's game is listed at 206. Additionally, the Suns are dead last in defending PGs this season.
If Damian Lillard misses this game, expect CJ McCollum ($6,600) to be the biggest beneficiary. He's already averaging 19.9 PPG on 16.9 shots per game. That's a lot of opportunity built-in and it would only go up if Lillard sits. Early reports would indicate that McCollum would move to the PG position, which could create an uptick in assists, which could make McCollum a sneaky double-double threat.
The shooting guard position is extremely thin tonight, so don't be afraid to pay up for Eric Bledsoe ($8,300). He's a very consistent source of points for fantasy owners. He's only scored less than 20 real points in a game once in his last ten and can tack on the secondary statistics as well. Brooklyn struggles defensively against most positions and SG is no different. I wouldn't expect a massive 6x value game, but if you're buying Bledsoe, it's for his high floor.
Jerami Grant ($4,700) has been earning some serious minutes with Nerlens Noel missing time recently. Keep an eye on the Sixers Injury Report, because if Nerlens sits again, Grant should be in line for another nice outing. Grant rarely puts up a complete dud, scoring at least 17 DraftKings points in each of his last ten, but it's production over the L4 that has me excited. He's averaging 25.3 DraftKings points per game which would provide 5.4x value tonight. An excellent matchup for the Sixers tonight as they are actually a small favorite against the Lakers tonight.
Put this record on repeat – "Anthony Davis ($10,600) will be under-owned". It's incredible with this guy. I understand the injury risk, but many owners will find ANY reason to not roster AD. Tonight's reason I am sure will be that MEM has allowed the fewest points to opposing PFs. Let me remind you that AD is matchup proof. Let me remind you that just three days ago, he had the worst matchup against the stingy Utah Jazz. He logged 44 minutes and dropped a massive 36-11 line for 61.75 DraftKings points. Davis was 2.1% owned in the $3 SharpShooter that night. Sure, he comes with risk, but who doesn't? The reward for taking on that risk is potentially the best reward on the slate.
I guess Andrew Nicholson ($3,400) is actually a thing now. He's been the biggest beneficiary of the Magic's new rotation (moving Oladipo to the bench). Nicholson didn't suit up for the majority of the games this season and when he did play, only logged a handful of minutes. Skip to the past week and you'll see that he's played at least 23 minutes in each of the last four. And he's filling the statsheet! He's returned 10x, 4x, 5x and 9x value for his owners in those four games. He's a really nice value play if you are looking to save cap space and he's flying under the radar to the casual fan.
Nikola Vucevic ($6,600) is being projected as my top center on the board (in the first projection iteration). His low price has him sporting high probability to meet 6x value (26.75%). An excellent matchup with Minny who ranks in the bottom five of defending centers this season. Vuc has dropped two massive lines in his last three games including an 18-10 line from Sunday night against Boston.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as injuries and news break closer to tip-off. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.