For many Venezuelans, time to leave may be close
Guillermo I. Martínez
Last week a Venezuelan friend I met in 1994 found me on Twitter.
After exchanging pleasantries, I asked her what she expected from last Sunday's presidential elections. She said she was hoping Henrique Capriles could defeat President Hugo Chávez,
"I don't have a plan B," she said.
For the next few days I watched her few but precise comments on Twitter. She went from cautious optimism to describing herself as a "bundle of nerves" and finally to the sad realization that the hopes of almost half of Venezuela's population would not materialize. Chávez won the election by almost 10 points. Capriles conceded.
Late Sunday night she tweeted: "Looks like the road now is to Maiquetía." Maiquetía is where the airport is located. It is where Venezuelans go now as they leave their country, because of insecurity because the Chávez regime is persecuting them.
According to the U.S. 2010 Census, the number of Venezuelans living in South Florida increased by 150 percent in the first decade of the new century — from 41,000 in 2000 to 102,000 in 2010. Many more have come in the last two years. That number is likely to increase exponentially in the next few months, particularly if Chávez continues his socialist policies and is unable to control violence in the country — one of the highest per capita in the Western Hemisphere.
I don't believe my long-time acquaintance will be among those making the Caracas to Miami trip. She is depressed, but by early in the week she was busy working on a new personal endeavor.
Others, however, will not hesitate.
Those leaving will continue to be the cream of the crop. As was the case in the early years following the Castro revolution in Cuba, those who came as exiles, only to establish new lives in the United States, were the best their country had to offer.
Those coming to South Florida from all over Venezuela will be the professionals, the entrepreneurs, the upper middle class and those who do not believe in Chávez's socialist model; nor in his alliances with Cuba, Iran, Syrian, and most of the leftist regimes in Latin America.
Even though Chávez did not allow the presence of international observers to monitor the elections, few in the country have disputed the election results. Many point out that the rules governing the vote were unfair with all the power in the hands Chávez and his allies.
Venezuela's elected dictator had appointed four out of five members of the National Electoral Commission. The judiciary is made up principally of Chávez allies. His supporters control the National Assembly. When he speaks all radio and television stations in the country must carry his words — this is the law. And then Chávez has the petro-dollars to "give" houses, food and support to the poor in his country. To them, Chávez has become an all-mighty hero; comparable only to Cuba's Fidel Castro.
Despite the decrease in Venezuela's oil production under Chávez and the assistance he provides to sustain other leftist regimes in the hemisphere, Chávez still has money, not to build up the country's economy, but to distribute assistance to those in need. And these people vote and do so overwhelmingly for Chávez.
Forecasting the future of Venezuela at present is at best a difficult task. Chávez is recovering from cancer that forced him to have chemotherapy and radiation therapy in Cuba as well as to undergo surgery three times. In the event he dies in the first four years of his newest six year mandate, Venezuela's law mandates a new election. Many analysts believe Chávez will try and have the constitution changed so he many appoint who will take over when he dies.
Forecasting the future of Venezuelans in South Florida is much easier. As middle and upper class Venezuelans despair with events at home, they will move to the South Florida area. Already Doral in Miami-Dade County and Weston in Broward County are home to thousands of Venezuelans.
The area's economy will improve with their presence, for this new wave of exiles bring or already have money outside Venezuela. They will open new businesses; they will buy homes; they will grow the Hispanic population of South Florida.
Hopefully Venezuelans will be able to return to their home country. I certainly hope they don't have to endure more than half a century in exile as many Cubans have. They are my brothers and sisters and hope their future is not as dim as ours has been.
Guillermo I. Martínez on Twitter at @g_martinez123, or email him at Guimar123@gmail.com