FCS Spring Bracketology 9.0 — Playoff Predictions (4-12-2021)
Karlee Sell/Monmouth Athletics
One more week of games remain until the FCS playoff field is announced.
The 24-team bracket has been reduced to 16 teams. The typical format is 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. This spring, there will be 10 auto-bids and six at-large bids.
Only four teams will be seeded compared to the usual eight.
Fall games are included in playoff resumes. And while teams can play up to eight regular-season spring games in a 13-week period, the amount of games conferences are playing ranges from four to eight. A minimum of four games must be played to qualify as an at-large bid.
In short, there is going to be a huge imbalance when evaluating playoff resumes. Nonetheless, we will give it a shot and provide weekly playoff predictions.
RELATED: FCS Playoff Committee Members
Selection Show: Sunday, April 18 (10:30 a.m. CT — ESPNU)
1st Round: Weekend of April 24
Quarterfinals: Weekend of May 1
Semifinals: May 8 (11 a.m. CT on ESPN, 7 p.m. CT on ESPN2)
Championship Game (Frisco, Texas): Sunday, May 16 (1 p.m. CT on ABC)
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
These are playoff predictions and don't reflect my current Top 25.
These predictions are through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do, not necessarily how I would field the bracket.
RELATED: Conference AQ Tiebreaker Procedures
3. SHSU
4. Weber St.
Auto-Bids (*Clinched AQ)
*Big Sky – Weber St.
*Big South – Monmouth
CAA – JMU
*NEC – Sacred Heart
*OVC – JSU
Patriot – Holy Cross
SoCon – VMI
*Southland – SHSU
At-Large Bids (Ranked from most likely to least likely to get in)
11. EWU
12. Delaware
13. UND
15. Richmond
17. Missouri State
18. Villanova
19. SE Louisiana
20. Austin Peay
Bus trips (400 miles or less) are JMU-VMI, Delaware-Monmouth, JSU-Mercer, and Richmond-Sacred Heart at Villanova's stadium.
The committee will avoid conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round.
*Neither Richmond or Sacred Heart are host sites. But they are within a bus trip to play at Villanova's stadium, which is a host site.
Explanations below, but a summary: Monmouth and Sacred Heart enter the field and take the place of Kennesaw State and Duquesne as their respective conference's AQs. Mercer takes the last at-large bid, knocking East Tennessee State out of the field.
The seeds stayed the same as last week.
JMU may have been No. 1 on the committee's Top 10 rankings reveal, but it'll likely flip if NDSU beats SDSU. That would give the Bison five ranked wins compared to JMU's one if the Dukes beat Richmond.
SHSU needs to handle business and beat UIW to finish undefeated and secure a seed. And Weber State finishes 5-0. While the Wildcats have had ugly wins lately, I still think they'll get a seed over a second CAA or MVFC team.
EWU secures an at-large bid with a 5-1 finish. There are scenarios where each team 12-16 could be left out if they lose. While it's not likely for some, it also isn't a guarantee any of those teams get in with a loss this weekend. Compared to EWU having a guaranteed spot, which is why EWU is No. 11, or the first at-large bid in.
Delaware is 4-0 with a massive game at Villanova this weekend. That should be a competitive game and will greatly impact the playoff picture. Nova is in with a win and left out with a loss. Delaware can be in the discussion for a seed with a win, all the way to being left out with a loss along with Richmond beating JMU.
North Dakota is ahead of South Dakota State because it owns the head-to-head, and I think UND will beat YSU and NDSU will beat SDSU, meaning the Fighting Hawks have a better shot at getting in. But the Jacks should still be in the field with a loss.
Richmond is in quite the position. A huge win over No. 1 JMU may give the Spiders a seed with a 4-0 finish. But with a loss, the Spiders will want Delaware to give Nova its second loss so the Spiders don't get bumped out.
I really don't know if Mercer will get in or not. I just have a hard time seeing the MVFC getting three at-large bids, so the Bears get the nod over Missouri State. If Mercer beats Samford, it finishes 6-5 overall but 6-2 in the SoCon with five straight wins, three of which came against ranked opponents at the time of the game. It's a quality resume.
Missouri State is the first team out. The why is explained in the paragraph above.
Villanova is on the outside looking in right now, but all it has to do is get a home win against Delaware to make the bracket. Easier said than done, though.
Southeastern Louisiana has two losses already, but it could end the season on a three-game winning streak with two straight ranked wins if it beats Southern Illinois on the road. The Lions would then be 5-2.
Austin Peay will be hoping its April 11 postponed game against EIU gets played this weekend. That should be a win, which would make the Govs 5-5 overall and 5-3 against FCS opponents. Not a great resume at first glance, but the Govs would finish on a three-game winning streak that includes wins against two ranked opponents, one being the OVC's AQ Jacksonville State.
FCS Top 25: Sam Herder's Ballot For 4-12-2021
FCS Spring 2021: Week 10 National Streaming Schedule