It's another good start for Bowl Season. I went 2-0 on the Mega Bets for a very profitable opening weekend. Let's see if the good times continue with:
Northern's All American Sutton Smith led the nation in sacks
Boca Raton Bowl – UAB -2.5 vs Northern Illinois – It's one of only three bowls featuring conference champions. The Rose Bowl with Ohio State vs Washington and the Orange wit Alabama vs Oklahoma are the others.
UAB discontinued it's program until two years ago. The return to the college stage is worthy of a Travolta in Pulp Fiction, back to back bowls and a CUSA championship.
Northern Illinois is used to being in championship games but was a little off this year. Nevertheless, they upset Buffalo in a thriller to win the MAC.
Both teams are similar in that they have excellent defenses and not much on offense. The Huskie pass rush in the best in college football with 50 sacks. All American DE Sutton Smith led the way with 15 sacks. The Huskies allowed an average 21.5 PPG, 21st overall. The rush defense was especially stingy allowing 109 YPG, 14th overall.
UAB's defense is even better
UAB was even better allowing just 300 YPG, 11th overall and 17.3 PPG, 10th overall. The Blazers can get off the field as they were second in stops on third down. During a midseason stretch, they allowed 7 or fewer points 5 of 6 games.
Neither team can move the ball. UAB was 67th in YPG, 100th through the air. NIU was worse finishing 123rd in YPG.
The trends favor UAB. They are 8-3 ATS over the past 11 games overall, and they're also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 against winning teams.
NIU sucks in bowl games. They are 0-5 ATS mark over the past five bowl appearances, they're 1-5 ATS in the past six against the Conference USA and They're just 5-16-1 ATS in the past 22 neutral-site battles, However, they have covered in four of the past five against winning teams.
I'll take UAB and lay the points. In what should be the first team to two scores wins, UAB has the better rushing attacks and defends the QB better. NIU will struggle to make double digits. I'll put a Mega Bet on the Blazers and a quatloo on the under 43.5. ​
AJ Ouellette leads a devastating Bobcat rushing attack
DXL Frisco Bowl - San Diego State +3.0 vs Ohio - AKA the AARP Bowl - It's the oldest coaching matchup in the bowl season when the 68-year-old Rocky Long – with 71 wins, eight winning seasons in eight years, and three Mountain West titles at San Diego State – takes on the 74-year-old Frank Solich - who's taking Ohio to its ninth bowl game in ten years and hasn't had a losing season since 2008.
One team is coming in red hot while the other struggled coming out of the final turn. Ohio won five of their last six games scoring 49 points or more in each of the five wins. SDSU has lost four of their last five. However, they did beat Arizona State and knocked off Boise State on the smurf turf.
The Bobcat running attack has been devastating leading the MAC and finishing eighth in the country, averaging 262 yards per game and rolling for 818 in the last two. It's not just pounding away; it's hitting the home runs averaging over seven yards per carry over the final six games of the year with 24 scores. They also lead the nation in takeawys coming up with 30 turnovers on the season.
It will be strength on strength as the Aztecs finished fourth against the run. The offense struggled when QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington missed several games midseason. They are back and healthy for this game.
The trends favor Ohio in this one. The San Diego State Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records and 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
Ohio meanwhile is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
I'm going to go with SDSU and take the points. The trends and momentum favor the Bobcats but it seems every year there's a hot team coming into the bowl season that does a face plant. I'm predicting that Ohio is that team this year.
Put me down for a quatloo to make it fun.