Putin's Dream: Is The West's Pro-Ukraine Coalition About To Unravel?
In a world divided between democracies and autocracies, the autocrats can count on the democrats eventually dividing among themselves— the freedom to disagree is, after all, the very cornerstone of democracy.
France's Macron and Germany's Scholz in Berlin in October
Emmanuel Macron's official Facebook page
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine WarTHE WASHINGTON POSTGeopoliticsSourcesWORLDCRUNCHLES ECHOSTHE GUARDIANTHE NEW YORK TIMESfeatured-postLE MONDE
Alex Hurst
PARIS — In a world divided between democracies and autocracies, the autocrats can count on the democrats eventually dividing among themselves— the freedom to disagree is, after all, the very cornerstone of democracy.
In the global ideological clash playing out in the war in Ukraine, the moment has arrived where those divisions could wind up undermining the democratic cause itself. As Lucie Robequain writes for Les Echos, Vladimir Putin's "dream" scenario is peaking over the horizon as France and Germany, the traditional co-drivers of European policy, are increasingly divided on a host of key issues from energy to industrial policy to arms production.
Supported by the West, Ukraine has managed to resist Russia's invasion for eight long months.
But the Western coalition risks sliding into crisis as the intra-European divisions coincide with the growing economic costs of supporting Ukraine and uncertain support in the United States from House Republicans, who appear poised to take a majority after next week's midterm elections.
France and Germany: Why is it so tense?
France is furious that Germany has, without giving its fellow EU members advance notice, unilaterally pursued a €200 billion support package for its own industry, which threatens to destabilize competitiveness in the single market. Berlin has also opted for U.S. and Israeli suppliers for a future missile defense shield over Eastern Europe rather than a European developed and produced alternative that would include the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system. There is also tension over Germany's decision to continue to phase out nuclear power rather than turning to France for new next-generation reactors.
Plenty of smiles for the cameras, but no substantive breakthrough.
For its part, Germany, which built its economy on cheap Russian gas fueling an industry whose major export destination was China, sees an economic model collapsing on both ends in a newly divided world—and which it cannot reconfigure at the snap of its fingers. In this context, Berlin is particularly frustrated with France's refusal allow the construction of a new natural gas pipeline that would connect Germany to Spain, which hosts the majority of Europe's Liquified Natural Gas import terminals; France is also accused of promoting "European defense" initiatives that in reality favor its own industry.
Europe is more divided than ever
A lunch Wednesday between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz featured plenty of smiles for the cameras, but no substantive breakthrough on any of these points of contention.
"These arguments could seem fair game in times of peace," writes Robequain. "But in the face of the conflict we're up against with Russia, we shouldn't pick the wrong enemy."
Adding to the potential rifts is uncertainty in Italy, where former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi boasted to his party colleagues that he had exchanged gifts with Putin and suggested that Ukraine was to blame for the invasion. The revelations forced new Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party relies on Berlusconi's for its parliamentary majority, to run damage control. Still, it was another recent high-profile crack in what has been a remarkably united front in support of Kyiv.
All smiles?
Thursday's edition of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Potential for a change in the U.S. policy
Meanwhile, the sniping among allies is also happening on the transatlantic front: from the US, over European defense spending and levels of financial assistance to Ukraine; from Europe, over lack of U.S. consideration for the enormous economic hit to Continental economies due to energy costs—including imports of Liquified Natural Gas from the U.S., whose prices spiked wildly during the summer and early fall.
In the face of sometimes divergent interests within the West, the Biden Administration's willingness to step in as funder and supplier of Ukrainian needs has been key to maintaining unity.
If the U.S. pulled back, would France, Germany, and the EU as a whole step up to fill the gap?
Beyond Europe's own divisions, the potential for a change in this U.S. policy has foreign observers of the U.S. concerned.Le Monde's Piotr Smolar sees a Republican Party that is taking its foreign policy cues from the likes of Tucker Carlson. "Their star preacher is the Fox News presenter Tucker Carlson, who never stops inversing who is responsible [for the war in Ukraine], by accusing his own government of having instigated and fueled the war," writes Smolar. It's not an anodyne observation; multiple outletshave noted the seemingly direct links between propaganda points from the Kremlin and the views espoused by Tucker Carlson.
The U.S. support to Ukraine is getting less certain
Yet the iron-clad support from the U.S. is now suddenly very much uncertain. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has threatened future financial assistance to Ukraine, warning that House Republicans would not write "a blank check" if they take control of Congress
Such a shift in Washington's willingness to support Ukraine could risk throwing papered-over divisions into a full blown crisis in the Western coalition. If the U.S. pulled back, would France, Germany, and the EU as a whole step up to fill the gap? Or would it give cover to skeptics in those nations to press for a pull back themselves? You can be sure Putin will be watching, and dreaming.
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LGBTQ+ International: UK v. Scotland On Gender, Uganda Ends "Vagabond" Laws — And Other News
LGBTQ+ flag in front of UK's parliament tour
ukparliament
LGBTQ PlusSourcesWORLDCRUNCHPolandMexicoUgandaCanadaGuatemalaUnited KingdomKenyaCountriesUnited States
Laura Valentina Cortès Sierra, Riley Sparks, and Hugo Perrin
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Kenyan activist Edwin Chiloba's funeral
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🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 UK-Scotland Feud Over Law On Changing Gender
The UK government has blocked a Scottish law on changing gender — the first time London has used its legal powers to block a law in Scotland. The law makes it easier for people 16 or older to change their legal gender marker. The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon denounced a "frontal attack on our democratically elected Scottish Parliament and its ability to make its own decisions" on Twitter. The issue is expected to add to growing calls for a referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
As Scotland moves to make legal gender recognition less complicated, the UK government is now threatening to make it more difficult for trans people from other countries to have their gender recognized when they move or travel to the UK.
Currently, trans people whose gender has been legally recognized in one of 41 countries can go through a fast-tracked process to have their gender recognized in the UK.
Many of those countries, including 10 EU members, Canada, Mexico, Uruguay and the U.S., use the same self-determination system that the vetoed Scottish law introduced — a standard that has been widely adopted around the world, and is less onerous than the current UK model.
But UK equalities minister Kemi Badenoch said this week that the UK government would review that list of countries and remove those with a less "rigorous" gender recognition process, which could make it harder for trans people to travel to the UK, advocates say.
🇲🇽 Mexico Recognizes Non-Binary Identity Of A Minor For First Time
Emiliano Citlalli
tabascohoy
In a first for the country, last week Mexico recognized the non-binary identity of a minor on their birth certificate. The decision was made possible for Emiliano Citlalli, 17, thanks to strategic litigation, as the Tabasco state (like most other Mexican states) doesn't have a trans identity law.
Citlalli explained the significance of the move to Presentes: "Today, in my certificate, my gender identity is reflected with an X. It's relevant because I am going to access rights such as health, education, or work, with my identity being recognized."
🇬🇹 Guatemala Gives Historic Sentence To Murderer Of Indigenous Trans Activist
A man was condemned to 21 years in prison for the transfemicide of Nancy Sacul, an indigenous trans woman and migrant from rural Guatemala. The unprecedented sentence for a homicide — of 15 years and an added six for "contempt for the offended party" — is particularly significant because transfemicide is not a defined concept in Guatemala.
Nancy Sacul was a 24 year-old trans woman from the Q'eqchi community and an activist. To escape poverty, she moved to the country's capital at age 14. She faced discrimination based on her ethnicity, gender identity and migrant status. She turned to sex work and entered a collective of trans women sex workers, which led to her receiving death threats.
🇺🇸 Trans Woman Banned From Praying At New York Synagogue
Talia Avrahami, a Jewish trans woman and active member of the Modern Orthodox synagogue, was forbidden from praying in the women's section at the Shenk Shul synagogue, part of New York's Yeshiva University, after the current rabbi discovered she was a trans woman.
As the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reports, the previous rabbi had been accepting of her identity.
Avrahami's husband, Bradley, said: "A rabbi should not take a position knowing that that position will cause someone to want to harm themselves." He also said the ban had caused his wife to have suicidal thoughts.
🇺🇸 New Arkansas Governor Sarah Sanders Bans Use Of "Latinx"
Sarah Huckabee Sanders the newly appointed Governor of Arkansas
sarahhuckabeesanders
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the newly appointed Governor of Arkansas and former press secretary under President Donald Trump, has signed an executive order banning the word "Latinx" from official documents. The term, considered more LGBTQ+ inclusive, has been widely adopted by the Hispanic LGBTQ+ community.
On her first day in office, Sanders signed seven executive orders, among which was the "Executive Order To Respect The Latino Community By Eliminating Culturally Insensitive Words From Official Use In Government."
The decision was deemed hypocritical by many. In 2019, Sanders claimed that building a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico was essential, as nearly 4,000 "known or suspected terrorists" were stopped in the southern border, a statement that turned out to be completely false.
🇬🇧 UK To Include Trans People In Conversion Therapy Ban
The UK government is again promising to introduce legislation to ban conversion therapy in England and Wales. In a policy shift, the proposed law is now also expected to cover trans conversion therapy.
The UK government has promised to introduce the bill since 2018, but previously said it would only ban efforts to change sexuality. No timeline for introducing the legislation has been announced, but the government is aiming to do it before the next election.
🇺🇬 Uganda Strikes Down Law Used To Target Sexual Minorities
A recent Constitutional Court ruling in Uganda struck down "rogue and vagabond" laws used by police to harass, arbitrarily detain and arrest members of the LGBTQ+ community, sex workers, and people living in poverty. Human rights organizations and activists praised the decision.
Quoted in RightsAfrica, Adrian Jjuuko, the executive director of the Human Rights Awareness and Promotion Forum, declared that "The police loved this law. All they had to do was look at someone, size them up and arrest them. The poorer one looked, or the more one diverged from […] the norm, the better."
🇵🇱 Workers' Rights Victory For Self-Employed LGBTQ+ In Poland
After a gay freelancer posted a YouTube video promoting tolerance for same sex couples, Polish broadcaster Telewizja Polska ended his shifts despite the fact that he had worked for them for several years. The freelancer then sued them for discrimination. Seeking clarification on the scope of EU worker protections, a Polish court referred the case to the CJEU, which ruled that existing EU laws that cover LGBTQ+ rights for staff include self-employed workers.
Arpi Avetisyan, head of litigations at LGBTQ+ rights organization ILGA-Europe said that there is a "hostile attitude towards LGBTI people by Polish authorities" and a "poor track record of implementation of human rights judgments".
🇰🇪 Transgender Kenyans' Fear Grows Amid LGBTQ+ Backlash
Funeral and Burial ceremony of LGBTQ activist Edwin Chiloba
eldoretplus
Transgender Kenyans are sharing testimonies of renewed persecutions after the killing of LGBTQ+ rights activist and fashion designer Edwin Chiloba, whose funeral took place this week in his family's village. Chiloba's body was found earlier this month in a metal box on the side of the road, mutilated and asphyxiated.
Kenyan transgender woman Arya Ram Kenyan says requests for shelter and protections have increased in the country over the past week, as a new wave of backlash against Kenyan lesbians, gays and transgender people has erupted following Chiloba's death. "People were going through other gay people's social media saying, 'Have you seen Chiloba? You are next,'" Arya said.
🇨🇦 Canada Helps More Than 600 LGBTQ+ Afghan Refugees Resettle
The Canadian government has promised to help resettle 600 more LGBTQ+ Afghans fleeing the Taliban.
Rainbow Railroad, a Canadian NGO which helps LGBTQ+ people around the world facing persecution to find safety in other countries, says that after almost a year of lobbying, the Canadian government has agreed to help the organization resettle 600 vulnerable Afghans.
About 200 Afghans have been able to move to Canada under a refugee program for LGBTQ+ people, established after the Taliban took over the country in Aug. 2021. Rainbow Railroad and other refugee advocates have criticized Canada's refugee process as too slow and bureaucratic, but the organization says the new announcement is an important step.
🇺🇸 Gay Couple Denied Airbnb By Dallas Host
Love trying to book an @Airbnb with my bf in Dallas and having this be the first response to our booking. 🙃 pic.twitter.com/vVN9w1UW1P
— Curtis Kimberlin Jr (@ckimberlinjr) January 7, 2023
Upon confirming with his Airbnb host in Dallas, Texas, that he would be staying with his boyfriend, Curtis Kimberlin Jr. received the following question: "So I'll be hosting two men sleeping together...right?" The host denied Kimberlin Jr.'s request shortly thereafter.
Curtis took to Twitter to post a screenshot of the conversation, commenting: "Love trying to book a [Airbnb] with my bf in Dallas and having this be the response to our booking."
Although Airbnb reached out after the tweet went viral, Kimberlin Jr. described their response as "corporate". "They basically said 'We will look into this' and left it at that." Meanwhile, NBCDFW reports that Airbnb suspended the host from its platform pending investigation, saying "We enforce a strict nondiscrimination policy, and when a potential violation of this policy is brought to our attention, we investigate and take action, up to removal from our community."
Here's a roundup of the best LGBTQ+ reads from around the web this week:
• From LGBTQ Nation: "A trans woman founded a group to help trans people leave the U.S. due to rising hate"
• From Out.com: "It's time to talk about gay steroid use"
• From Them.us: "11 LGBTQ+ TV shows we can't wait to watch in 2023"
• From The Guardian: "Let me tell you what it's like being gay in the straightest town in England and Wales
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U.K. Government Blocks Scottish Law Making Gender Change ... ›
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