As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We'll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.
Shellacking
In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they're in for a shellacking in November.
As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed 'toss ups' by the experts.
Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong
Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.
Close Elections Don't Always Mean Flips
From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they're close is key.
Open Seats And Changing Geography
In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district's geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more 'balanced'.
Everyone Hates Congress…
Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.
One Size Fits All Election?
In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it's hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.
Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I'll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn't much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.
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2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716
Will republicans maintain control of the US House Of Representatives in 2018's Mid Term election? Or are those predicting a Democratic Wave right? Find out in 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716. For part one click here.
Media Creates Confusion
These days the media is obsessed with predicting the future. Moreover they're so busy telling the future viewers are left confused about where the close races are and why they are considered close.
West Coast To The Mississippi
In two epic political podcasts, I lay out the battle ground for the most vulnerable house races in 2018. Part 1 covers the west coast to the Mississippi. Part 2 (Podcast 717) covers districts east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic. Political Junkies these two are for you. If you want the same thing on the US Senate Toss Up Races, check out Podcast 712.
Skipping The Story Line
In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716 it is most noteworthy that I don't buy into a story line. On one side it's a blue wave. On the other all is well. It is far from clear what the result of this election will be. That doesn't stop the shills bought and paid for from telling you what's going to happen before you've even had a chance to consider it.
Primaries Play A Role
Election Day is Tuesday November 6th, 2018. Many districts have primaries in May, June and August. The results of these primaries will determine the tactical situation in key districts. A sober look at these races goes a long way to clarifying the situation for listeners and viewers.
An Ocean Of Time
Moreover, there's an ocean of time between May 2018 and Election Day. Will local or national and international events have the most impact in the tight races? How many seats are republicans defending? What about local personalities? Most of the time, all the information isn't in one place where it can serve as a baseline for future discussions.
No One Can Consistently Predict Elections
Bottom line? No one can predict elections. We learned that in 2016. What's more, House elections are even more difficult to predict. 435 members up for election. The Democrats have 193 seats, the republicans 237. Both parties 200 or so seats solidly democrat or republican. That leaves about 30 races which can be considered toss ups. This is where we focus.
As the old saying goes, the Devil's In The Details. Did Trump beat Clinton in your district? How did your congressman do? What are the local issues? If it's an open seat is your district Republican, Democrat or somewhere in between? From California's 10th to New Hampshire's 1st, From Oregon to Georgia.
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