Ben Smith Blog
Political News and Analysis
The case for taking Huntsman seriously
By BEN SMITH
Matt Bai makes it:
It's vital to remember that next year's primaries will be the first since 1996 where Democrats haven't had their own nomination fight going on. In other words, in the last two contested Republican primary seasons, independents in "open states" like New Hampshire split their votes between Republicans and Democrats. But this year, all of them will be voting for a Republican.
This is huge. Consider that had it not been for all the independents who voted for John McCain in 2000, Bill Bradley might well have won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire...
All of this suggests, I think, that a less doctrinaire candidate might have a real shot in New Hampshire, once the campaign really gets underway and voters get a chance to assess the field. That's when all the polling actually starts to mean something.
UPDATE: A colleague notes that if this argument sounds familiar, it's because aides to Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, and even Mitt Romney have made it over the years. Which doesn't mean it's not a serious one.
ALSO: Alex Burns notes that Indies are hardly homogenous, or reflexively pro-Huntsman.