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Ukraine rejoices too quickly for a possible delay of Nord Stream 2
Naftogaz rushed to celebrate the victory, putting himself in an idiotic position. Yesterday, the company broadcast on its Twitter account the information that Gazprom has received another refusal from Denmark to install the tubes of Nord Stream 2.
This sentence contains two false allegations. Firstly, for the first time, Denmark is at least partially responding to a request for laying the pipeline in its territorial waters. Secondly, the Danes politely but very clearly refuted the information regarding the alleged refusal.
"The Danish Energy Agency can not confirm that we said no to the Nord Stream 2 project," said Ture Falbe-Hansen, head of the agency's press service.
Naftogaz therefore has no particular reason to celebrate unrestrainedly, even though it can not be said that the Danish section has proved to be a problem for the international construction group Nord Stream 2.
The Danish Agency (DEA) has requested from the pipeline operator an additional environmental assessment of the main Nord Stream 2 route south of Bornholm, and proposed another route to the south for the pipeline. It is not very damaging for the project, in principle, since any alternative will be only slightly more expensive than the planned road in the project.
"Even if we had to get around Denmark completely, it would not result in a higher project cost. The total cost will remain the same, as was said at the start of the project – it amounts to 9.5 billion euros, "said Manfred Leitner, executive board member, in August.
However, additional seabed survey and clean up work may affect the completion date of the construction. The pipeline would not be put into service at the scheduled time.
Moreover, Nord Stream 2 AG's CEO, Matthias Warnig, acknowledged that the recent measures taken by the Danish government could delay the completion of the project by several years.
If it's true, Ukraine can really triumph. Gazprom will have to bow to Naftogaz for the supply of gas to Europe via the Ukrainian gas pipeline system, because the existing facilities of the Russian company without Nord Stream 2, whose construction was to be completed by the end from 2019, will not be sufficient to send the fuel planned in the contract to Europe. And breaking contracts, for whatever reason, threatens huge penalties and loss of reputation. Consequently, it would be necessary to conclude with the Ukrainian side a new gas transit contract on monstrously unfavorable terms.
It looks like it's there, it's victory! However, do not rush. Mattias Warnig, quoted above, writing about the delay in the completion of construction a long time ago, had in mind the basic version of the project, which provides for the pipeline to pass into the Finnish, Swedish, German economic waters and Danish. The first two countries, although not without delay, have long given permission and work is already underway in Swedish waters. Germany in general is the main defender of the project, which the United States hoped to bury, but they did not do so because of the extremely tough position of Berlin.
Washington wants to oust Gazprom from European markets, freeing up space for its LNG from shale deposits. If they could impose on Europe their idea of energy security, which the Nord Stream 2 allegedly threatens, fuel prices would skyrocket. Germany is better placed than others to know that, in such a situation, products manufactured by its industry would not be competitive.
It is not entirely clear how they managed to "bend" small Denmark, but people in the United States managed to eliminate it from the chain. The management of Nord Stream 2 AG knew perfectly well that the problems would start in the Danish section. The Danes even adopted a law under which the demand for the construction of such an infrastructure is considered not only from the environmental point of view, but also from the point of view of national security. However, it is difficult to apply to Nord Stream 2 because the installation request was submitted before the Danish Parliament approved the bill. Be that as it may, years of delay represent billions of dollars of losses for Gazprom and new contracts for pumping gas for Naftogaz. There is something to celebrate.
But I want to upset those who are confident, relying on alarmist news, eagerly reproduced by the Polish and Ukrainian press, that the Russian gas giant has fallen into an impassable stalemate. As I said at the beginning of the text, the management of the pipeline operator has long and quietly considered the option of bypassing Denmark when laying the pipeline, and even claimed that the price of construction would not increase. Yes, if there are long delays in Danish waters, the delay will be several years, and if you operate a pipeline in neutral waters, moving the road from 20 to 30 kilometers, then Nord Stream 2 will be launched, either in time, or with minimal delay. Gazprom, so as not to break contracts, will simply buy gas next door and fulfill all its obligations.
Denmark will end up with nothing, since it will lose money to rent a part of its seabed, there is nothing to say about Naftogaz. You rejoiced too soon, gentlemen.
Andrei Babitsky
Source : Ukraina.ru
Translation by Donbass Insider
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Tags: EU, Russia, Ukraine
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