Half-Baked Automated Cars Will Put Lives At Risk, But (Almost-Ready) Robotaxis Will Save Lives
Shahin Farshchi Contributor
I fund founders accelerating humanity through feats of engineering
Visitors look at an Icona Nucleus self-driving electric vehicle concept at the Shanghai Auto Show on... [+] April 15, 2019. Companies are taking a variety of approaches to self-driving vehicle cars, from adding autonomous features to personal vehicles, robotaxis created using existing vehicles and purpose-built robotaxis. (AFP/Getty Images)
At the core of autonomous cars is deep neural networks, which improve as they encounter more scenarios, leading to safer autonomous cars. A topic of heavy controversy is determining when these networks and algorithms are superior to a human driver: Introduce them too soon, and you put lives at risk at the hands of the machine. Introduce them too late, and you continue to needlessly lose lives at the hands of human drivers.
To determine whether autonomous cars are safer than people, we need to revisit what "autonomous" means. Engineers and scientists lump "autonomous" into the general basket of partially or completely automating human drivers. However, consumers, regulators, vendors, investors and ultimately businesses offering "autonomous" should make the following distinction: "autonomy as a feature," and "autonomy as a service."
Automakers should be mindful of how they market "automated" driving features, as they are just... [+] driver assistants whose misuse can cause tragic accidents. In contrast, robotaxis should be encouraged to enter the market sooner with professional oversight to increase their usage and save lives. (Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg)
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Autonomy as a feature
This concept is not new. Driver assistance features have been progressively rolled out, along with other "bells and whistles," for over 100 years. Autonomy is no different: it is a feature that could tempt a consumer to purchase one vehicle over another. Like most features, from electric starters and headlamps to adaptive braking and cruise control, they are initially offered in the most exclusive vehicles and eventually trickle down to all models.
Tesla offers autopilot "features" today, with the promise of "full self-driving capabilities" in the future. I think full self-driving capability will likely be elusive: it is unlikely that any automotive company, like Tesla, would take on the liability of moving passengers in vehicles it doesn't control. The safety of a driver and its passengers will ultimately be the responsibility of the driver, which will have to be able and prepared to take control of the vehicle at all times. Other manufacturers will offer similar functionality, and additional features will be those that monitor driver alertness when the system is activated to ensure safety.
Autonomy as a service
This concept is older than the automobile itself. It exists in the form of ride sharing. Consumers hailed animal-propelled, and later self-propelled, vehicles with hand gestures, and now with their smartphones. Responsibility for the passengers, passers, and vehicle was in the hands of the drivers. Autonomous services will be no different: rather than a human piloting the vehicle, the vehicle will be piloted by a machine operated by the operator of the robotaxi fleet.
Ride-sharing companies, such as Uber and Lyft, are well-positioned to offer autonomous transport service through their reach to consumers. They will have to operate their own fleets, relying on technology from Aurora, Waymo, or Cruise. Zoox (disclosure: my firm Lux Capital is an investor) is also a well-positioned to efficiently offer autonomous transport services by virtue of reinventing the vehicle from scratch towards operating its own fleet of robotaxis. Zoox is building the hardware, software, vehicle design, fleet operation, ride management, routing, and ride-hailing app direct to consumers. Its fully-integrated approach relaxes constraints and makes the machines native to operating as part of a fleet, through a combination of machine, and when needed, human control.
With this distinction in mind, should we bring autonomous cars out to market sooner, or ripen a bit more before serving them to the public?
Autonomous as a feature: Let it cook longer, make it idiot proof, and call it "driver assist."
Consumers are notorious for experimenting with the outer limits of performance of their gadgets, especially cars. It isn't a surprise that sports cars are subject to higher insurance premiums than their economy counterparts: it is compelling to test the performance claims which owners of performance cars pay dearly for. Autonomy is no different, evidenced by the numerous Tesla accidents and sightings of Tesla drivers too distracted or incapable of taking over if needed.
Car companies offering autonomy as a feature should act responsibly as it relates to how they market their driver assistance features. Should they even be using the word "automated?" Or, should they use the word "assist?" They should incorporate cameras and sensors to detect driver attention as a prerequisite for activating and continuing the operation of these systems. The technology will likely take decades to mature on robotaxis (more on that below). When it does mature, it will eventually trickle down into traditional passenger cars. Unless the vehicle is owned and operated by a ride-sharing fleet, the "total autonomous" feature will likely be disabled.
Autonomous as a service: Bring it on!
Ride-sharing companies alongside Aurora, Waymo, Zoox, Cruise, and others are investing billions of dollars to advance autonomous technology, which advances as it is tested in real traffic. In their race to solve the problem, some of the above juggernauts have (publicly) considered launching their products with heavy human oversight. By heavy oversight, I mean a human in the car, and/or an army of engineers closely tracking the car in real time. Unit economics will initially be very poor, i.e., money lost on every passenger-mile. However, a faster launch of the service will save lives at the hands of human drivers, and shorten the timeline to the holy grail where unit economics for the ride-sharing companies are favorable vs. human-piloted cars.
"Driverless" has become the ultimate buzzword. Auto manufacturers, ride-sharing companies, auto suppliers and tech companies need to be responsible in what they promise consumers. Consumers need to be mindful of the ultimate limitations of the technology and also embrace its introduction as a professionally-managed service, subject to proper human oversight. With enough investment, patience, and time, robotaxis will become as ubiquitous as, and eventually outnumber, human-piloted cars. In fact, Elon's prediction of Teslas appreciating in value may come true as they become scarce relics of a bygone era when consumers purchased cars.
Shahin Farshchi
I'm a scientist-turned-investor with a passion for working with founders accelerating humanity through feats of engineering. I grew up with a passion for cars, computer...