MSU vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction
Free Press writer Joe Rexrode breaks down and predicts the 3:30 p.m. Saturday match-up in Columbus
MSU vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction Free Press writer Joe Rexrode breaks down and predicts the 3:30 p.m. Saturday match-up in Columbus Check out this story on Freep.com: https://on.freep.com/1HdipCA
Joe Rexrode, Detroit Free Press Published 4:59 p.m. ET Nov. 20, 2015 | Updated 7:25 p.m. ET Nov. 20, 2015
Michigan State Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio and Connor Cook.(Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, DFP)
Matchup: No. 9 Michigan State (9-1, 5-1 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (10-0, 6-0).
When: 3:30 p.m. Saturday.
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio.
TV/radio: ABC (Channel 7 in Detroit), WJR-AM (760).
Line: Buckeyes by 14.
Ohio State: CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), questionable; LB Chris Worley (undisclosed), questionable.
MSU: LB Ed Davis (knee), out for season; CB Vayante Copeland (fractured vertebra), out for season; OT Dennis Finley (leg), out for season; S Jalen Watts-Jackson (hip), out for season; S RJ Williamson (biceps), out; OT Kodi Kieler (upper body), questionable; DT Joel Heath (leg), probable.
Five things to watch
Free Press sports writer Joe Rexrode breaks down five story lines to watch in Saturday's game
The big one: This is the Big Ten game people have been pointing to all season. And though MSU's loss at Nebraska ruined chances of a top-5 matchup, it's a top-10 game between the league's best programs in recent years and best hopes of a College Football Playoff entrant this year.
East race heats up: If Michigan loses at Penn State on Saturday, Ohio State can clinch the Big Ten East and a spot in the Dec. 5 title game by beating MSU. If MSU beats Ohio State and Penn State at home in the regular-season finale, it will win the East. And if OSU beats MSU and U-M beats OSU, the Wolverines win the East.
Cook's wing: MSU senior quarterback Connor Cook will start after injuring his right shoulder and sitting out the second half, as a precaution, of last week's win over Maryland. But he was in some pain last week and some of his passes lacked the usual velocity. MSU obviously needs a full game of full-throttle Cook.
Back and forth: MSU and Ohio State became every-year opponents starting last season with the Big Ten's switch to East and West divisions. But this is the fifth season in a row they've played – including MSU's win in the 2013 Big Ten championship game – and they've split the past four. MSU won its last trip to OSU, in 2011.
Bad memories as fuel: After MSU crushed OSU's national title dreams in 2013, the Buckeyes were outspoken about their desire for revenge and got it with a 49-37 thumping at Spartan Stadium last season, en route to winning the national title. The Spartans haven't said a lot this week, but MSU's defense, in particular, has something to prove.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Braxton Miller. (Photo: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports)
Know the foe
Free Press sports writer Joe Rexrode looks at three story lines surrounding Ohio State:
Fully stocked arsenal: Braxton Miller was a true freshman quarterback the last time MSU visited Ohio Stadium, struggling to move the ball in a 10-7 win for the Spartans. Now he's one of several big-play weapons at the disposal of quarterback J.T. Barrett. It starts with Heisman candidate Ezekiel Elliott, who leads the Big Ten with 161.7 yards per game in league play and has a nation's best 15 straight 100-yard games. Michael Thomas is the top downfield threat, with 651 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Miller sometimes disappears from the offense, but he and Jalin Marshall can score at any moment. OSU's offense has been inconsistence even though its line returned four of five starters.
Looking out for No. 97: Last season, MSU's offensive line handled Ohio State up front. That includes star defensive end Joey Bosa, who was contained by MSU left tackle Jack Conklin and spent much of the game working on others. Bosa, projected by some as the No. 1 overall pick in the next NFL draft, is a player to watch Saturday as always. And Conklin has not looked full strength since returning from a knee injury. Pass protection is crucial Saturday, and that's one reason starting running back Gerald Holmes should get a lot of snaps. OSU has other studs in tackle Adolphus Washington and linebacker Raekwon McMillan.
Urban truth: Ohio State fourth-year coach Urban Meyer is 48-3 with the Buckeyes, and you might be able to give MSU credit for two of those losses. Ohio State players said the 2013 Big Ten championship game loss to MSU, killing the Buckeyes' national title hopes, carried over into an Orange Bowl loss to Clemson. The third loss came at home last season to Virginia Tech, and the Buckeyes have ripped off 23 wins in a row since then. So yes, the ACC has more wins over Ohio State than the Big Ten does during Meyer's tenure. And a national title repeat is still very much alive for the Buckeyes.
Hey Joe: OSU writer says few have challenged Buckeyes D
Joe Rexrode's scouting report
When MSU has the ball: Considering the way MSU has struggled to run the ball, and the way Ohio State is stuffing the run these days, it's hard to imagine the Spartans doing much if Connor Cook can't open things up with his arm. The chance of rain for at least part of the game also complicates things for MSU's offense. But if Cook can stay upright and pass with zip, there are plays available on the Buckeyes. Saturday is the day MSU's offensive line needs to put everything together, keeping Cook safe and giving the Spartans some running lanes and balance.
When Ohio State has the ball: If J.T. Barrett throws the ball the way he did last season at MSU, forget about it – the Buckeyes are going to run away with this game. If Ohio State's passing game stays consistent with what it has been for most of this season, the Spartans are right in there. Lost in Barrett's performance last season is how OSU dominated MSU up front, freeing Ezekiel Elliott to go off. Saturday, the Spartans should, and probably will be, aggressive to the point of gambling at times to limit the running of Elliott and Barrett. And then it's on an improving secondary and inconsistent pass rush.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, MSU 27. Many are picking the Buckeyes to roll, but the Spartans have the bodies to compete on both sides of the line of scrimmage. And MSU's recent history in big games -- 5-1 in the past six against top-10 teams -- is cause to expect top-shelf focus and execution. Quarterback Connor Cook's right shoulder is the big question. OSU running back Ezekiel Elliott and the home field will be the difference, even if Cook plays like himself.
Check out more staff predictions here.
Join us at 3:30 p.m. Saturday for a live blog of the Michigan State-Ohio State game!
Contact Joe Rexrode: jrexrode@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @joerexrode. Check out his MSU blog at freep.com/heyjoe.
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