All posts tagged Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo)
Peru: Challenges to the Summit of the Americas
Martín Vizarra's inauguration as President of Peru on March 23, 2018. / Twitter: @prensapalacio / Creative Commons
The resignation of Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) last weekend marks not only a deepening of the crisis of governance in that country; it also signals the greatest threat yet to the credibility of the Summit of the Americas process begun in 1994.
The 2016 election of PPK, a technocrat with international experience, business acumen, and a stated commitment to attacking corruption, appeared at the time to reaffirm Peru's preference for competent, if unglamorous, government. Allegations of inappropriate dealings with the Brazilian construction giant, Odebrecht, when he was a government minister in the 2000s and as a consultant prior to the last election – which he blamed on business partners – were his undoing. He dodged charges, fought back, made deals (including releasing former President Fujimori from prison), and reportedly deployed his allies to buy votes to oppose his impeachment – all to no avail. Vice President Martín Vizcarra, sworn in last Friday to succeed him, had been spirited off to Canada to be Peru's ambassador last September when allegations of malfeasance as Transportation Minister led to calls for his impeachment. But last week he pledged to make anticorruption and transparency top priorities.
PPK is not the only tainted politician, or even the worst, in this drama. Two of his predecessors – Alejandro Toledo (2001-06) and Ollanta Humala (2011-16) – have been indicted for offenses involving Odebrecht. The Congress that hounded PPK out of office is itself reportedly riddled with corruption. Odebrecht officials have testified that PPK's congressional nemesis, Keiko Fujimori, took $1.2 million from them in the 2011 presidential race. The respected GFK poll indicates that, at 82 percent, Congress has a worse disapproval rating (by 1 percent) than PPK did last week – with the body's corruption being a major factor.
The crisis comes just weeks before the eighth Summit of the Americas scheduled to be held in Lima on April 13‑14, with the overarching theme of "Democratic Governance against Corruption." Vizcarra has directed the Peruvian foreign ministry to proceed with preparations. The event's anticorruption focus could produce deeply embarrassing moments for a number of hemispheric heads of state in addition to the Peruvian hosts. Odebrecht and the Lava Jato investigations loom large over Brazilian President Michel Temer (who, despite support in the single digits, last week announced his intention to run for reelection in October). U.S. President Trump is engaged in warfare against the Department of Justice, FBI, and special prosecutor looking into allegations that he or his campaign colluded with Russians suspected of intervening in U.S. elections. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has stumbled from scandal to scandal. Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández remains under a cloud because of persistent questions about the vote count in his reelection in November. Venezuelan President Maduro would be an obvious outcast – for both his corruption and poor governance – but his peers' own baggage would force some restraint on their condemnations.
Other than newly inaugurated President Vizcarra's anticorruption pledge, the conditions for a successful summit around the theme of corruption and democratic governance are obviously absent, and going ahead with it risks rendering the event a laughing stock. Changing the theme would undermine its credibility and raise the troubling questions of what meaningful topics – trade, democracy, inequality, infrastructure investment, or counternarcotics – could replace it. There are also tempting reasons to postpone the event, including the fact that several countries – Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia among them – will be electing new presidents this year and could bring fresh, validated ideas to a meeting next year or beyond. Postponing the event, however, would risk braking what little momentum the Summit process has and would leave open when, if ever, the perfect summit could be held. Crises driven by corruption (and, in the case of Venezuela, the collapse of decency) have a tendency to go on for years. Either way, Summit organizers are going to have to scale back their expectations – with a protocolary event that sacrifices substance in April, or create a pretext for postponement and hope for a more propitious moment in the future. The Ibero-American Summit, which includes Spain but excludes the United States and Canada, is scheduled to meet in Guatemala in November under the theme of "A Prosperous, Inclusive, and Sustainable Ibero-America." Perhaps that event's timing and theme will help get regional discussions back on track.
by clalsstaff on March 26, 2018 • Permalink
Posted in Peru, Uncategorized
Tagged Anti-Corruption Efforts, Corruption, Elections, Fujimori, Fujimori (Keiko), Impunity, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Lava Jato, Peru, Summit of the Americas, Vizarra (Martín)
Posted by clalsstaff on March 26, 2018
https://aulablog.net/2018/03/26/peru-challenges-to-the-summit-of-the-americas/
Summit of the Americas: Awkward Agenda, Dim Prospects
By Eric Hershberg
Leaders from the hemisphere during the last Summit of the Americas in 2015. / Maria Patricia Leiva / OAS / Flickr / Creative Commons
Preparations for the 8th Summit of the Americas, scheduled for April 13-14 in Lima, face a number of challenges. Trump Administration measures have upended longstanding assumptions throughout the hemisphere about Washington's agenda in the region and beyond. No less distracting is the wave of ongoing corruption scandals in Latin America and impending elections in numerous countries.
The three presidential summits attended by President Barack Obama (2009, 2012, and 2015) arguably were shaped by the standing of the United States in the region. Emphasizing "change we can believe in" at his first presidential summit, in Trinidad, Obama pledged that the United States would be a partner rather than an embodiment of hubris. Leaders across the ideological spectrum applauded. Yet the second, three years later in Cartagena, was a disaster for Washington, with even friendly heads of state lambasting the President for continuing an unacceptable Cold War line on Cuba and rigid drug control policies. It was in the wake of this embarrassment that Obama finally moved to change policy toward Cuba. This watershed, supplemented by advances in other areas overseen by Vice President Biden, made Obama's third summit, in Panama in 2015 – attended by Cuban President Raúl Castro – a much more positive experience.
This year's Summit seems unlikely to produce advances – substantive or symbolic – and indeed has the potential both to highlight conflicting agendas and even to provoke widespread ridicule.
Under normal circumstances, the partial but damaging reversal of Obama's Cuba opening would elicit hostility from Latin American leaders, but tensions over Trump's dramatic departure from traditional U.S. positions on trade and climate, and his caustic posturing on immigration policies that especially impact Mexico and Central America, may overshadow regional bewilderment at Washington's renewed hostility towards Havana. Latin American countries that Trump jilted at the altar when he summarily withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have begun moving on – negotiating trade deals with China while uniting with Canada and seven Asian countries to form "TPP 2.0." That chauvinism and race, not security, are at the heart of Trump's "Great Wall" proposal is widely understood and resented in Latin America.
Trump's postures and policies are by no means the only strain on the summit agenda. Venezuela's meltdown and impending elections are of grave concern to virtually all leaders who will attend, whether President Maduro does or not, yet there is no consensus on what to do about the problem and the humanitarian emergency it has spawned. Questions about the legitimacy of Brazilian President Michel Temer diminish the standing of the hemisphere's second largest democracy. Tensions swirling around the Summit's host – Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) – are also intense. PPK is but one of numerous incumbent and recent Latin American presidents under siege by corruption allegations. Strong evidence of corruption among presidents of Latin American countries big and small will hardly be news to anyone, but the scope of the problem – and the strength of public rejection of it – means many governments will come to the Summit wounded and distracted.
The irony that the theme of this year's Summit is "Democratic Governance against Corruption" will be lost on no one, as the Lava Jato investigations and lesser inquiries reveal the venality of government after government. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, a co-host of the Summit, has done his fair share to rescue the region from authoritarian and corrupt leaders – challenging both Maduro and the tainted reelection of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández – but few others in the hemisphere have lived up to the lofty rhetoric about democracy and anti-corruption at previous summits. The Peruvian national host is hardly in a position to steer the Summit to take on Trump on matters such as TPP. If he were not so badly tainted by recent events, he could have represented the globalists in the Americas who are convinced that a misguided America First posture issuing from Washington amounts to a U.S. abdication of leadership on trade, climate, and other pressing matters. Yet it is now doubtful whether he will be able to say anything more than "Welcome to Peru." The smiling faces in the protocol photos will conceal the striking disjuncture between the Summit agenda and its protagonists.
by clalsstaff on February 6, 2018 • Permalink
Posted in Central America, North America, South America, Trans Pacific Partnership, Uncategorized, United States
Tagged Almagro, Central America, Corruption, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Latin America, Maduro, North America, Regional Organizations, South America, Summit of the Americas, Summits, Temer (Michel), TPP, Trump (Donald), U.S. Policy, U.S.-Latin America Relations, Venezuela
Posted by clalsstaff on February 6, 2018
https://aulablog.net/2018/02/06/summit-of-the-americas-awkward-agenda-dim-prospects/
Peru: PPK Survives, But Political Crisis Deepens
By Carlos Monge*
A protester in Lima holds a Peruvian flag with and image of Alberto Fujimori in prison garb with the phrase "Indulto Es Insulto… Asesino" ("The Pardon is an Insult… Murderer"). / Alan / Flickr / Creative Commons
Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's commutation of former President Alberto Fujimori's prison sentence – in exchange for some fujimorista support against his impeachment by Congress on corruption charges – has thrown the country's politics into a tailspin and increased the prospects of prolonged national crisis.
PPK was accused of involvement in corrupt deals with Peruvian and Brazilian construction companies – part of the massive Brazil-based Lava Jato scandal – while he was Minister of Economy and Prime Minister under President Alejandro Toledo (2001-06). By ordering Fujimori's release, he rewarded Kenji Fujimori and dissident Fuerza Popular MPs, who'd already split with party leader and sister Keiko over her wavering commitment to get their father out of jail at all cost, for their votes against the impeachment. After emphatically denying he would do so, PPK granted Fujimori a humanitarian pardon on medical grounds, after which the former President experienced a recovery robust enough to resume political activism just days later.
The Fujimori indulto has aggravated deep and longstanding tensions within and among the country's parties and civil society. After the impeachment proceedings collapsed, three of PPK`s MPs and three of his ministers resigned in protest, and even the lawyer who defended him against impeachment has denounced his actions as a political scam. PPK's popular approval has sunk to 20 percent, and reliable polls show that more than half of the population rejects the indulto. Protests are growing. Some 30,000 to 40,000 people marched through Lima on January 11, condemning the collusion of corrupt elites to protect each other, and more demonstrations are planned.
Longtime observers in Lima say that the pro-Fujimori Fuerza Popular remains deeply divided as siblings Kenji and Keiko are at each other's throats over the control of the party and relations with the PPK administration. Even if Alberto and Kenji Fujimori continue to support PPK for a while, open wounds from the close presidential race between PPK and Keiko in 2016 complicate cooperation and in fact may deepen the riff as Keiko's close collaborators now accuse the PPK camp causing the Fuerza Popular crisis, even denouncing that fujimorista votes were paid for. Informed speculation is that Keiko will fan the flames of scandal enveloping PPK (even though she reportedly has her own liabilities in Lava Jato) pushing for his fall in hopes of securing early elections rather than waiting until 2021.
The left, centrist sectors, and even some conservatives such as Nobel Prize novelist Mario Vargas Llosa have given up any pretense of coexisting with PPK. Human rights organizations and trade unions are demanding Alberto Fujimori be sent back to prison; denouncing the "corrupt alliance" between PPK, the Fujimoris, and the business elites; and insisting that ongoing investigations be pursued no matter who they bring down. In some sectors, the leftist call for a new Constitution breaking the bond between the state and big business is gaining support.
PPK is a lame duck president with general elections still four years away. In Congress, which is presided over by a forceful opponent – Luis Galarreta – his base has shrunk to 15 MPs, and he depends heavily on the support of fair-weather friends like Alberto and Kenji Fujimori. The economy grew 2.7 percent last year, according to the Central Bank, but fell short of targets. Lava Jato – which has already landed former President Ollanta Humala in jail and prompted extradition proceedings against former President Toledo (living in the United States) – is not going away, with new information expected soon from Brazil. Popular rejection of the political class, which is seen as corrupt and cynical, will deepen. Talk in Lima isn't about if PPK will go, but when. His fate at this moment appears to depend less on his own cunning and more on the political calculations and unstable relations between the two Fujimori factions and the rest of the parties in Congress and on the strength of street protests.
* Carlos Monge is Latin America Director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute in Lima.
Tagged Constitutional Crisis, Corruption, Fujimori, Fujimori (Keiko), Humala, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Lava Jato, Peru, Peruanos por el Kambio, Presidential Pardon, Protests, Toledo (Alejandro)
https://aulablog.net/2018/01/23/peru-ppk-survives-but-political-crisis-deepens/
Challenging Assumptions about Supercycles in Peru and Latin America
By Claudia Viale and Carlos Monge*
A Southern Copper Corporation train heading towards the Peruvian mines of Toquepala and Cuajone. / David Gubler / Wikimedia Commons / Creative Commons
The commodity-fueled "supercycle" that has propelled Latin American economies for the past decade and a half is ending, but careful analysis of other ongoing cycles will help countries cushion the blow. ECLAC economist Jean Acquatella has identified four significant global cycles in which Latin America has actively participated as a raw materials exporter through the 20th and 21st centuries: U.S. industrialization; post-war European reconstruction and Japan's industrialization; the post-1973 OPEC-driven oil boom; and, most recently, urbanization and industrialization in Asia, especially China. During this fourth cycle – considered a supercycle because of sustained record levels of commodity prices and demand – resource-rich countries in Latin America experienced high growth rates, fiscal abundance, and a decrease in poverty rates as well as an increase in social conflict over the extraction of natural resources. Slower Chinese growth has since reduced global demand and prices for the region's minerals and energy, but the impact has been less severe than at the end of previous cycles.
José de Echave, of CooperAcción, has emphasized the need to differentiate the recent supercycle from what he terms the "extractive boom," which started in the early 1990s as a result of the privatization of state mining and hydrocarbons assets and pro-market legislative reforms. His analysis indicates that the extractive boom will outlast the supercycle as long as large-scale projects mature and pro-investment policies continue in place.
The concessions, investments, production and fiscal rent during the past decade and a half in Peru and other countries indeed point to other cycles, some of which have enduring momentum. Peru has experienced a "concessions cycle" for exploration activities; "investment cycles" as a result of privatization of state assets in the '90s and as a result of successful explorations and increased demand and prices starting in 2002; "productive and export cycles" as a result of investments; and a "fiscal cycle" of abundant public revenue. Several cycles will obviously decline, but the country's pro-investment policies remain in effect. The new government of President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is deepening policies started under former President Humala: reducing corporate income taxes, making environment compliance less onerous, and curtailing the oversight capacities of the Ministry of the Environment. Investments made in the last five to ten years are, in many cases, only now beginning production. Thus, as contradictory as it might sound, Peru is poised to double its copper production in the next five years.
The complex differences between "extractive booms" and "supercycles" have deep political implications. The end of a supercycle could mean a substantial reduction in social conflict between local populations and extractive enterprises and government, but the current "race to the bottom" driven by pro-investment policies could fuel new tensions. The Las Bambas project in the South Andean region of Apurimac, Peru, illustrates the point. New legal procedures adopted in 2014 easing approval of environmental impact assessments (EIA) have allowed the Ministry of Energy and Mines to approve substantial changes in the project's design and EIA without informing the local population and authorities, generating a violent local social reaction. Available data shows analogous phenomena underway in Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador. The implications will vary for each country, of course, but careful analysis is needed if state policies and civil society activism are to be on solid ground.
* Claudia Viale and Carlos Monge are Program Associate and Latin America Director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute in Lima.
Posted in Peru, South America, Uncategorized
Tagged China, copper, Economic Development, Environment, extractive boom, Extractive Industries, Humala, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Peru, supercycle
https://aulablog.net/2016/10/11/challenging-assumptions-about-supercycles-in-peru-and-latin-america/
Peru: Serious Challenges Ahead
By Michael Baney*
Photo Credit: harimarachinv / Flickr / Creative Commons
Peru's presidential election, won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, bore the hallmarks of Peru's distinct brand of democracy – political parties that are mere temporary electoral vehicles with little ideology; strong anti-incumbent sentiment; and the absence of a serious challenge by the left. Neither Kuczynski's Peruanos Por el Kambio (PPK) nor Keiko Fujimori's Fuerza Popular is a party with any true structure. The fact that the acronym of Kuczynski's party forms his initials and that Keiko Fujimori's party uses a large K as its symbol underscores the personal nature of these parties and of politics in Peru. For the fourth time in a row, not only did the governing party not remain in power; it did not field a candidate – symptom of the deep distrust of institutions and unhappiness with the status quo in the country. The lack of a serious challenge by the left was also repeated. Although Socialist Verónika Mendoza's effective handling of a press challenge to her heritage gave her a surge in nationalist and indigenista support, her campaign faltered when her economic policies came under scrutiny.
The election also marked the emergence of a new generation of young antifujimorista activists who combined efforts on social media with traditional protests to undermine Fujimori's electability. These efforts included the production and online dissemination of Su Nombre es Fujimori, a documentary that links Keiko to some of the worst abuses of her father's government, as well as pillorying her distribution of Keiko-branded tupperware (called tápers in Peru) among the rural poor in an apparent vote-buying effort. Online voices ridiculed her by rewriting reports on the number of votes by which she trailed Kuczynski as indicating the number of additional tápers that she should have distributed, and the hashtag #KeikoTAPERdiendo – a colloquial pronunciation of "Keiko is losing" – was widely used to track reporting on the election. Whereas protests traditionally were organized by older demonstrators linked to Marxist parties, this year a Facebook-based group organized two days of nationwide marches of tens of thousands of mostly younger antifujimoristas.
The weakness of Peru's parties will complicate President Kuczynski's efforts to govern, as it has with past presidents. Kuczynski's narrow victory was largely due to the effort of this new form of activism – which he did not lead, which is not necessarily loyal to him, and to which he does not have any strong allegiance. His ability to continue to benefit from such efforts designed to shut fujimorista politicians out of office will be extremely constrained, particularly because his lack of support in the fujimorista-majority congress will likely compel him to adopt a friendlier attitude toward his former rivals. Kuczynski has previously stated that he would sign a law allowing imprisoned former President Alberto Fujimori, Keiko's father, to serve out his prison sentence at home, a move that he may consider to secure the cooperation of the fujimorista congressional bloc to move proposed legislation forward. Such a move would be a major blow to Peru's human rights movement, which spent many years campaigning to imprison the former leader, and it would also infuriate the antifujimoristas, bringing them out onto the streets once again. Fujimorismo and antifujimorismo may remain the most salient political positions in a country where economic progress has not improved people's trust of the system, a recipe for further polarization that could overwhelm the Kuczynski government should it attempt to straddle the two positions in an attempt to overcome the weaknesses inherent in a system with no parties.
* Michael Baney is Political Risk Analyst at Allan & Associates in Washington, DC.
Posted in Peru, South America
Tagged Elections, Fujimori, Fujimori (Keiko), Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Peru, Peruanos por el Kambio
https://aulablog.net/2016/06/13/peru-serious-challenges-ahead/
Peru's Election: Close Vote Count, Divided Nation
By Cynthia McClintock*
Photo Credits: Venezualan Government / Public Domain and Diario La Primera / Wikimedia Commons
Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) will not announce the final results of Sunday's run-off presidential election until later this week, but the current statistical tie is already setting the stage for serious tensions. The ONPE's official count, with about 93 percent of votes counted, puts Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Peruanos por el Kambio) at 50.32 percent and Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) at 49.68 percent. Some local observers say that late-arriving vote tallies from rural areas could give Fujimori the edge, but others point out that recent quick counts have reliably predicted final results. The campaigns may have aggravated tensions on Sunday night, when Fujimori's spokesperson proclaimed her victory, and Kuczynski called on loyalists to "defend the vote" and "to be vigilant that they not steal votes from us."
The campaign underscored the country's enduring polarization over Fujimori's imprisoned father, Alberto. Although Alberto Fujimori was convicted on charges of human rights violations and corruption, and although his 1990s government became increasingly authoritarian, he is still perceived by many Peruvians as the savior who restored order and broke the back of the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas. Primarily for this reason, Keiko Fujimori won almost 40 percent of the votes in the first round on April 10; Kuczynski was the runner-up with 21 percent, narrowly defeating leftist candidate Verónika Mendoza (Frente Amplio), with 19 percent.
The last two weeks were a roller coaster. At the time of the first round, Kuczynski had held a slight lead over Fujimori, but only a week ago was trailing her by about five points. An international economist and banker who had lived for long periods in the United States, Kuczynski lost support in part because, after the first round, he spent eight days in the U.S., exacerbating perceptions that he was more gringo than Peruvian, while Fujimori traveled to remote areas of Peru. She claimed that, whereas her opponent favored big business, she favored small and medium business. Also, in the first debate, Kuczynski, who is 77, appeared at a loss to counter Fujimori's attacks.
In the last week, however, it was Kuczynski with the momentum. He effectively communicated integrity and a commitment to democracy just as memories of the corruption and authoritarianism during the government of Fujimori's father were revived. A scandal implicating the head of her party, Joaquín Ramírez, in money laundering gradually took a toll, especially when her vice-presidential candidate was believed to have orchestrated the broadcast of a doctored audiotape in an effort to clear Ramírez's name. Fujimori appeared to believe that "the best defense is a good offense," but her increasingly confrontational style and dismissive tone may have been a factor in the decision by third-place Mendoza to strongly endorse Kuczynski. In the second debate a week ago Sunday, Kuczynski emphasized that Fujimori could not be trusted to keep her key pledge to fight crime when Ramírez and other leaders of her party were under criminal investigation.
The presidential campaign has reflected deep polarization and tensions since at least March, when electoral authorities disqualified two important candidates – Julio Guzmán and César Acuña – for violations of party and electoral regulations. Guzmán's party had not kept to the letter of its internal party statutes and Acuña handed out cash at a campaign rally. The disqualifications prompted OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro to label Peru only "semi-democratic." A key problem was that the laws were not consistently enforced; most saliently, Fujimori, captured on video passing out prizes at a campaign event, was not disqualified. Strains are likely to remain high this week, and could grow worse after ONPE's final announced tally at the end of the week. Fujimori's followers, embracing the polls showing her lead prior to election day, may cry foul if a Kuczyinski victory is declared. Many of Kuczyinski's and Mendoza's followers, for their part, intensely fear a return to Fujimorismo. In this context, it is not impossible that disqualified candidates Guzmán and Acuña and their supporters could call for a total do-over. Although serious, sustained instability remains unlikely, Peru's 2016 election is by far its most problematic since the country's return to democracy in 2001.
(Previous analyses on the Peruvian election are available here and here.)
* Cynthia McClintock is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University.
Tagged Acuña (César), Almagro, Corruption, Frente Amplio, Fuerza Popular, Fujimori, Fujimori (Keiko), Guzmán (Joaquín), Human Rights, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Mendoza (Verónika), Peru, Peruanos por el Kambio, Ramírez (Joaquín), Sendero Luminoso, U.S. Elections
https://aulablog.net/2016/06/06/perus-election-close-vote-count-divided-nation/
Peru Elections 2016: Back to the Future?
By Jo-Marie Burt*
Photo Credits: Huhsunqu, Alex Albornoz, Alianza para el Progreso, Fuerza 2011, and Peruanos por el Kambio (modified) / Wikimedia / Creative Commons
Peruvian electoral authorities' decision last month to disqualify two candidates in this weekend's first-round presidential election has conjured up the ghosts of one of the most disputed elections in recent Latin American history: the "re-re-election" of Alberto Fujimori in 2000. Large demonstrations this week against the candidacy of the strongman's daughter, Keiko Fujimori, were a rejection of the corruption and authoritarianism of the past – as well as the electoral fraud that kept him in power. The two candidates were disqualified for technical violations of campaign laws. Newcomer Julio Guzmán, who polls indicated commanded around 20 percent of the vote, was punished because his party failed to follow certain registration norms, and the other, César Acuña, was accused of giving away gifts above newly set limits. Local observers point out, however, that other leading parties are guilty of similar missteps but have faced no penalties. Video and testimonials show, for example, Keiko Fujimori attended events where cash "prizes" were handed out.
The disqualifications have put the spotlight on the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights (IACHR), which disqualified candidate Julio Guzmán asked to investigate the decisions. Postponing the election would be extremely disruptive, particularly because other political groups in Peru, which have benefited from Guzmán's exclusion, have seized on the immediate political advantage. The possibility that uneven application of the electoral rules might taint the credibility of the eventual winner is not their immediate concern.
The two immediate beneficiaries are Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (known by his initials PPK, which also identify his party, Peruanos por el Kambio), and Verónica Mendoza of the left-wing Frente Amplio. At 15-20 percent each, they are jockeying for second and third place behind Fujimori (30-35 percent), but the real race is in the runoff on June 5 that will take place in the likely event that no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote. In the 2011 elections, Fujimori won the first round, but lost in the runoff vote to Ollanta Humala. Fujimorismo has a hard-core following of 25-30 percent of the voting public, but a majority of the population also has a negative opinion of her.
Peruvian elections had come a long way since Alberto Fujimori fled office in 2000. (In 2009, he was sentenced to prison for 25 years for human rights violations, corruption, and abuse of authority.) Free and fair elections were held in 2001, 2006, and 2011 – marking the first time in Peruvian history that two democratically elected presidents consecutively handed the presidential sash over to successors. Whether politically motivated or merely the result of incompetence, electoral authorities' apparently one-sided handling of this year's campaign has created an appearance of favoritism discrediting the electoral process itself. The Secretary General of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro, has already referred to these elections as "semi-democratic." Others speak openly of fraud. The potential damage is compounded by popular concerns that Keiko Fujimori represents a return to the authoritarian and corrupt tactics that characterized her father's decade in power. Her detractors say that she is not simply her father's daughter; she served as his First Lady and benefited from the corruption of his regime (for example, she testified before Congress that she accepted cash from intelligence chief Vladimiro Montesinos to pay for her college education). Keiko has acknowledged "errors" (but not "crimes) were committed during her father's government, and she continues to say her father's regime was the "best" Peru has ever had. These were bound to be contentious elections due to the divisive legacy Keiko Fujimori represents, as the massive nationwide demonstrations marking the April 5 "self-coup" on Tuesday made clear. But the uneven application of the law by electoral authorities raises even more serious questions about Peru's democratic institutions.
*Jo-Marie Burt is Director of Latin American Studies and Associate Professor of Political Science at George Mason University and a Senior Fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).
by clalsstaff on April 7, 2016 • Permalink
Tagged Acuña (César), Almagro, Corruption, Elections, Frente Amplio, Fujimori, Fujimori (Keiko), Guzmán (Julio), Humala, IACHR, Kuczynski (Pedro Pablo), Mendoza (Verónica), Montesinos (Vladimiro), Peru, Peruanos por el Kambio
Posted by clalsstaff on April 7, 2016
https://aulablog.net/2016/04/07/peru-elections-2016-back-to-the-future/