Donald Trump's Post-impeachment Calculation
Author: Greg Valliere
HUBRIS, THE FATAL FLAW IN WASHINGTON: Donald Trump did not learn any lessons or change his ways after acquittal, as Sen. Susan Collins ludicrously predicted. Instead, Trump has horrified even his supporters in this city with behavior that reinforces our belief that he's not a shoo-in for re-election, as the financial markets expect.
TRUMP OBVIOUSLY THOUGHT he could do whatever he wanted after dodging his removal from office, but his recklessness in the past few weeks has generated intense push-back:
His bipartisan defeat yesterday in the Senate on his ability to strike Iran;
A smackdown from Attorney General William Barr over Trump's interference in the Justice Department;
A chilling new brawl with New York state, which Trump wants to punish for investigating him;
A potential defeat from the Senate on the nomination of Judy Shelton to become a
Fed Governor; she's on very thin ice.
TRUMP IS STILL THE SHAKY NOVEMBER FAVORITE, but as we wrote last Friday, he's vulnerable on a wide range of issues and faces overwhelming opposition from college educated women, young people, suburbanites and — especially — African Americans and Hispanics. We're confident that he won't get 304 electoral votes, as he did in 2016; he needs 270 and would be lucky to get 290.
WHY ARE WE BUCKING THE "TRUMP LANDSLIDE" THEME? Our sense is that the public is weary of the un-ending feuds and tweets. Can't this guy get along with anyone? Virtually everyone who previously worked in his White House is prepared to eviscerate him as unstable and dangerous — and it's pretty difficult to tweet that Gen. John Kelly or John Bolton have sinister motives.
THE GREAT WILD CARD: Can the Democrats patch up gaping wounds this summer and unite behind a candidate who can beat Trump? We once thought Joe Biden had a path to 270 votes, but he simply lacks the energy. Bernie Sanders could lose 40 states. Pete Buttigieg isn't quite ready. Amy Klobuchar still doesn't have widespread recognition.
MIKE BLOOMBERG IS STARTING TO LOOK like the best bet to defeat Trump. Bloomberg hits back hard, with scathing and witty tweets, while the best Trump can do is mock Bloomberg's height. Like every other candidate, Bloomberg has flaws, but his endorsement this week by several respected black leaders is a sign that they put winning ahead of "stop and frisk."
OUT BOTTOM LINE is that Trump simply can't let well enough alone; he won acquittal and the economy is good (but not great). Yet Trump is addicted to headlines and controversy, so he rises to the bait, tweeting furiously on minor issues from critics who should be ignored. He couldn't even resist a fight with a 17-year-old girl on climate change.
TRUMP IS HIS OWN WORST ENEMY, as the Wall Street Journal editorialized this morning, and we reiterate — it's way, way too premature to expect him to win a second term.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
Greg Valliere
Chief U.S. Policy Strategist
AGF Investments
What We're Doing the Nights Before (and After) Christmas
Building Back Stronger: A Post-COVID Roadmap for a Better Toronto
First Take — How Much of Biden's Pandemic Relief Can Pass?
Greg Valliere | January 15, 2021
Timely insights from inside Washington.
Biden to Unveil Relief Bill Tonight; Senate Doesn't Have the Votes — Yet — to Convict
Joe Biden Will Go Big On Relief Bill; Impeachment Today