April 30, 2019 - Biden Surging Among Democrats In Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; U.S. Voters Support Wealth Tax, Oppose Free College
Former Vice President Joseph Biden is surging among Democrats and voters leaning Democratic, with 38 percent of the vote, followed by 12 percent for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 11 percent for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and 10 percent for South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
California Sen. Kamala Harris has 8 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, with 5 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas. No other Democratic contender gets more than 2 percent. This compares to results of a March 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll, showing Biden with 29 percent, Sanders with 19 percent, O'Rourke with 12 percent and Harris with 8 percent.
In today's survey among Democrats and Democratic leaners:
56 percent say Biden has the best chance to beat President Donald Trump, followed by Sanders at 12 percent;
44 percent say Biden would be the best leader, with Sanders and Warren at 11 percent each;
23 percent say Biden has the best policy ideas, with Warren at 19 percent.
Among Democrats, 25 percent want a presidential candidate who focuses on fighting President Trump, while 70 percent want a candidate who focuses on other national issues.
"The Democratic primary race suddenly gets real with a fast start by former Vice President Joe Biden and a very clear indication from voters that he is the only candidate who can send President Trump packing 18 months from now," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The good news for Mayor Pete Buttigieg is that voters seem ready to accept a gay man as president. The bad news for Buttigieg is that voters believe it just isn't going to happen."
President Trump is the overwhelming leader among Republicans and Republican leaners as 84 percent back the president for the GOP nomination, followed by 3 percent each for former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan.
But 52 percent of all U.S. voters say they definitely will not vote for Trump if he is the Republican nominee, while 33 percent say they definitely will vote for Trump and 13 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
A Gay President
Among all U.S. voters, 70 percent, including 46 percent of Republicans, say they are open to electing a president who is a gay man.
But voters say 52 - 36 percent the U.S. is not ready to elect a gay man as president.
Wealth Tax, Free College
American voters have mixed views on a number of policy ideas being discussed:
Voters support 60 - 34 percent an annual 2 percent tax on any individual wealth over $50 million;
Voters oppose 59 - 36 percent raising the tax rate to 70 percent on individual income that is over $10 million;
52 percent of voters oppose making all public colleges in the U.S. free, with 45 percent in support;
54 percent oppose free public colleges if it is paid for by a new tax on wealthy individuals, with 41 percent in support;
Voters support 57 - 40 percent having the federal government forgive up to $50,000 in student loans for individuals in households making less than $250,000 a year;
52 percent of voters oppose this loan forgiveness plan if it were paid for by a new tax on the wealthy, with 44 percent in support;
Voters oppose 65 - 31 percent allowing prison inmates to vote.
"It's almost a tossup, but if a vote were taken on free public college, the educated guess is that it would go down," Malloy said.
From April 26 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,044 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 419 Democrats and Democratic leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points, including the design effect, and 456 Republicans and Republican leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points, including the design effect.
1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
A lot                49%    54%    58%    42%    52%    47%    51%    46%
Some                 28     27     27     32     26     31     31     33
Only a little        13      9     12     16     11     15     11     13
None at all           8      9      3     10     10      7      6      8
A lot                30%    46%    55%    63%    51%    46%    48%    59%    44%
Some                 31     30     30     23     30     33     32     17     20
Only a little        21     14      9      9     11     13     12     16     21
None at all          17     10      5      4      7      7      7      9     14
DK/NA                 -      -      1      1      1      1      1      -      1
2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, and Seth Moulton for whom would you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................
LIBERAL.....  Mod/                        Non
Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
Biden                38%    20%    39%    44%    36%    39%    35%    42%
Sanders              11     19     11      6     15      8     13      7
O'Rourke              5      4      3      7      5      6      3      9
Harris                8     15      9      3      3     11      7      9
Warren               12     26     12      8     11     13     13     11
Booker                2      2      -      3      -      3      1      4
Gillibrand            -      -      2      -      1      -      1      -
Klobuchar             1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
Castro                1      -      1      1      1      1      -      2
Gabbard               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Inslee                1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
Hickenlooper          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg            10     11     15      8     11     10     14      4
Yang                  1      -      1      2      3      -      -      2
Williamson            -      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Swalwell              -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  -      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
Moulton               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -      3      1      2      1      2
DK/NA                 8      2      7     11     10      7      8      8
PARTYID.....  AGE IN YRS    INCOME.............
Dem    DemLn  18-49  50+    <50k   50-100 100k+
Biden                40%    31%    25%    48%    47%    30%    34%
Sanders              10     13     16      6      9     11     12
O'Rourke              5      5      6      5      3      9      4
Harris                9      5     11      6      9     13      3
Warren               13      9     11     13      9     14     15
Booker                3      1      2      2      -      3      5
Gillibrand            -      1      1      -      1      -      -
Klobuchar             1      -      1      1      -      -      1
Castro                1      -      1      -      1      -      1
Gabbard               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Inslee                -      1      1      1      -      2      -
Hickenlooper          -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             6     21     13      7      9      7     17
Yang                  1      1      2      -      3      -      1
Williamson            -      -      -      1      -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Swalwell              -      -      -      -      -      1      -
Ryan                  -      1      -      -      -      1      1
Moulton               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      1      1      2      2
DK/NA                 8      9      6      9      6      6      5
TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, and Seth Moulton for whom would you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Apr 30  Mar 28
2019    2019
Biden                38      29
Sanders              11      19
O'Rourke              5      12
Harris                8       8
Warren               12       4
Booker                2       2
Gillibrand            -       -
Klobuchar             1       2
Castro                1       1
Gabbard               -       -
Inslee                1       -
Hickenlooper          -       1
Delaney               -       -
Buttigieg            10       4
Yang                  1       -
Williamson            -       -
Messam                -      na
Swalwell              -      na
Ryan                  -      na
Moulton               -      na
SMONE ELSE            -       1
WLDN'T VOTE           2       1
DK/NA                 8      14
3. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - would be the best leader?
Sanders              11     19     11      7     17      7     11     10
Harris                6     15      3      2      2      8      5      7
Warren               11     23     14      6     10     12     14      6
Booker                2      1      -      3      1      2      1      3
Gillibrand            1      1      2      -      1      -      1      -
Klobuchar             1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -
Castro                1      2      1      -      1      1      -      2
Gabbard               -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -
Inslee                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Hickenlooper          -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
Buttigieg             7      6     10      7      8      7     10      3
Yang                  -      -      -      1      1      -      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Sanders              11     11     15      7     13     13      9
Harris                7      3      7      5      9      8      3
Castro                1      -      -      1      -      -      2
Inslee                -      -      -      -      -      1      -
Hickenlooper          -      1      -      1      1      -      -
Buttigieg             3     18      9      6      5      5     12
Yang                  -      -      1      -      1      -      -
Swalwell              -      -      -      -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 9     18     13     10      8     13      8
4. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best policy ideas?
Biden                23%     7%    26%    28%    23%    23%    20%    28%
O'Rourke              2      1      1      2      1      2      -      4
Harris                7      8      8      4      1     11      5     11
Warren               19     41     22     12     21     19     24     14
Booker                1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
Gillibrand            1      -      -      1      -      1      -      2
Klobuchar             1      -      2      -      1      -      1      1
Castro                -      -      1      -      1      -      -      1
Buttigieg             9      6     12      9     10      8     10      5
Yang                  1      -      1      2      2      -      1      2
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
Sanders              16     17     23     10     19     16     15
O'Rourke              1      3      1      2      2      4      -
Harris                9      3     11      4     10      9      1
Warren               22     14     17     22     14     22     26
Booker                -      1      -      1      -      1      1
Gillibrand            -      2      -      1      -      -      2
Castro                -      -      -      -      -      -      1
Buttigieg             6     17     11      8      6     10     13
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  -      1      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                19     20     18     21     18     17     17
5. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election?
Harris                2      6      2      -      1      2      2      2
Warren                3      7      2      3      5      3      4      2
Booker                3      1      1      2      1      3      1      5
Gillibrand            1      -      2      -      2      -      1      1
Klobuchar             -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             4      9      1      4      1      6      5      2
Yang                  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1      1      -      1      1
Sanders              11     13     18      7     14     15     11
Harris                2      -      2      2      2      2      2
Warren                3      4      3      4      2      5      5
Booker                3      1      5      1      5      1      2
Klobuchar             -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Inslee                -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             3      7      4      4      3      1      9
Yang                  -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  -      -      -      -      -      1      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      -      -
DK/NA                15     15     13     15     13     16      9
6. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) In general, would you prefer a presidential candidate that focuses more on fighting President Trump and his policies, or a presidential candidate that focuses more on other national issues?
Fight Trump/policies 25%    30%    18%    25%    21%    27%    23%    27%
National issues      70     62     75     71     73     68     71     69
Fight Trump/policies 25%    24%    21%    28%    27%    20%    26%
National issues      69     71     76     65     66     75     72
7. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Donald Trump, Bill Weld, and Larry Hogan, for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS..............................
Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY               WHITE......
BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
Tot    Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
Trump                84%    87%    97%    82%    69%    85%    83%    82%    86%
Weld                  3      3      -      1      8      4      1      3      3
Hogan                 3      1      -      4      6      3      3      3      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      2      3      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 8      8      2     10     13      6     10      9      8
Rep    RepLn  18-49  50+    <50k   50-100 100k+
Trump                86%    79%    85%    83%    84%    83%    85%
Weld                  1      7      3      3      2      3      4
Hogan                 4      2      3      3      4      2      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      -      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      -      2      1      1      -
DK/NA                 8      9      9      7      8     10      7
8. In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?
Definitely vote      33%    81%     4%    22%    39%    27%    35%    46%
Consider voting      13     13      3     22     17     10     14     14
Definitely not vote  52      5     93     54     42     62     50     38
Definitely vote      22%    30%    38%    38%    46%    35%    40%     4%    23%
Consider voting      21     16     12      6     16     12     14      8     12
Definitely not vote  54     54     50     54     35     52     44     85     64
DK/NA                 2      -      1      3      2      1      1      2      2
TREND: In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?
Def     Consdr  DefNot
Vote    Voting  Vote     DK/NA
Apr 30, 2019         33      13      52        2
Mar 28, 2019         30      13      53        3
9. If you had to choose, which is more important in a presidential candidate: a candidate who you think would be a great leader, or a candidate who you think has great policy ideas?
Great leader         51%    51%    50%    53%    47%    54%    56%    47%
Great policy ideas   42     40     45     41     44     40     39     45
Great leader         38%    57%    55%    54%    47%    56%    52%    49%    43%
Great policy ideas   54     38     39     38     45     38     42     44     52
Great leader         50%    64%    46%    61%    47%    53%    66%
Great policy ideas   45     34     52     34     50     42     32
TREND: If you had to choose, which is more important in a presidential candidate: a candidate who you think would be a great leader, or a candidate who you think has great policy ideas?
Great   Great
leader  policy  DK/NA
Apr 30, 2019         51      42       7
10. In general, would you say that you are open to electing a president who is a gay man, or wouldn't you say that?
Yes/Open             70%    46%    85%    76%    69%    72%    74%    63%
Yes/Open             82%    67%    74%    61%    69%    68%    69%    66%    77%
DK/NA                 4      7      5     11      6      9      8     10      2
No                   10      2      7     16     14      8      6     18
Yes/Open             85%    87%    89%    84%    84%    86%    91%
No                   11      9      9     11     11     11      7
11. In general, would you say that the United States is ready to elect a president who is a gay man, or wouldn't you say that?
Yes/Ready            36%    30%    43%    35%    36%    35%    38%    34%
Yes/Ready            41%    38%    34%    32%    35%    36%    36%    30%    39%
DK/NA                11      8     11     15     10     15     13      9      6
Yes/Ready            43%    33%    43%    38%    40%    42%    40%
No                   49     55     52     51     49     47     55
DK/NA                 8     12      6     10     10     11      5
17. Do you support or oppose an annual wealth tax which would tax individuals 2% on any wealth over $50 million dollars?
Support              63%    65%    56%    58%    51%    62%    57%    71%    65%
Oppose               32     31     39     30     45     29     36     26     32
DK/NA                 4      3      4     12      5      9      7      3      3
18. Do you support or oppose raising the tax rate to 70% on an individual's income that is over $10 million dollars?
19. Do you support or oppose making all public colleges in the United States free to attend?
20. Would you support or oppose making all public colleges free if it was paid for by a new tax on wealthy individuals?
DK/NA                 3      5      4      6      2      5      4     10      8
21. Do you support or oppose the federal government forgiving up to $50,000 in student loans for individuals who live in households that make less than $250,000 a year?
22. Would you support or oppose this plan to forgive student loans if it was paid for by a new tax on wealthy individuals?
23. Do you support or oppose allowing individuals who are currently in prison to vote?