OK I said stop wprrying and I meant it. But that doesn't mean you can't worry in the future. When would that be?
Loss #6
Not in general of course, the Nats are going to lose more than 6 games going forward. But when (hopefully if) the Nats get to loss #6 in this 10 game stretch. Why? Because 4-6 opens the door to the scenario discussed yesterday. 4-6, Swept by Cardinals, UH OH. I think 4-6 is actually a decent guess at how they'll do.but I think will follow (4-2 vs Cardinals / Marlins) will even it out and keep the Nats too far ahead to catch. But if you want to worry that's where you start.
The Nats miss Eaton! I know that's shocking but it's true. Eaton was playing like the Eaton the Nats thought they were getting back when they made the trade and that Eaton is good. A little less pop, a little worse in the field but that's what you'd think 3 years in the future. The Nats top of the line-up is oddly precarious. The loss of Turner early sent the line-up into a tailspin and the loss of Eaton seems to be doing the same. In short the Nats offense relies on Rendon and Soto driving in themselves, Robles, Turner and Eaton. The getting what they can from the rest. Ok Eaton's gone so that explains why that plan is suffering - he's not on base, there's an extra out up there - but what about "the rest" part? It's not doing to well. Parra, Gomes, Adams, and Dozier are all slumping. Suzuki too despite that homer. Asdrubal is hitting well, but that blocks Howie from playing.
Somehow as we've all understood, as a consistently above average hitter for his career they have to keep Howie in the lineup. Maybe not today - as we're still in "don't worry mode". Maybe you can still keep going trying to get everyone at bats and keeping them fresh, but a couple more losses and a couple wins from those chasing down the Nats and you have to bite the bullet and go Howie nearly full-time. You have some room to play but you don't want to use it all up. (So work in Zimm NOW because by Sunday you may not be able to)
Elias got hurt again. This leaves Doo as the only lefty. It's nice having a couple lefties in the pen because some hitters are really rattled by them and even though a guy like Elias may not handle lefties well there are going to be guys you'd still rather he face than a righty, just because of how much that guy may crush righties. With him out you do lose that and don't really have time to replace it. The good news is that this may just force Davey to use his best pitchers more often without worrying about match-ups. That's a good strategy in general.
The Nats are 8 out and for all intents and a loss tonight seals the deal on the NL East. You can't expect the Nats to run the table against the Braves over the following 5 which is what would be needed. These things float but if the Nats lose tonight I will call the division. I have not called the Nats in the playoffs yet - based on my expectations it probably won't happen until the Marlins series.
Posted by Harper at 9:35 AM
Thanks for this follow-up. The concern about the Nats' season is low-level, but persistent. How likely is it that they go 3-7? (1-3 @ATL, 1-2 @MIN, 1-2 vs. ATL)?
Different thought: regardless of what happens this year, anyone up for a Nats power rebuild next year? If Rendon and Stras are gone, maybe they could trade Corbin and go young? Sort of like a Milwaukee-style accelerated track back to relevance?
GCX, it's basically what the Braves did too, but you kinda need a farm system to rely on to pull that off. If Rendon and Stras are gone, you might as well trade Max/Corbin/Suzuki/Gomes and anyone else with soon to expire contracts, and hope that the team can get enough return to be competitive before Trea is gone. But I don't think there's enough there to pull that off.
Really the Nats have dug themselves into a tough situation where they don't have enough to trade away to go quick rebuild and they don't have enough to trade away to keep the window going long-term. Sometime in the next few years, I'm not sure when, the Nats are going to have to go for the long rebuild (long being only 2-3 seasons hopefully). Someone please convince me otherwise, but I'm a DC sports fan and the Lerners are still in charge...
GCX - likelier today than yesterday. I'd have given it around a 30% chance coming in, now losing a Stras game probably climbs over 40. Still not most likely end point. I think 4-6 is now (had 5-5 but would have pegged yesterday as a W)
Not going to happen on the rebuild. I see Rizzo maintaining salary - Rendon walks (Zimm not brought back), use that money to sign Cole. Stras leaves too maybe they sign Moustakas and try for Jansen. A bunch of "I can see it moves" that leave them in about the same place wins wise.
JWLumley said...
The rough part about this Nats teams, is that they're so close to being really good. Once again, Rizzo sucks at building bullpens and it takes a top 5 payroll when you develop next to no one who contributes.
Think about this, if Strasburg opts out and Rendon signs elsewhere, the best position player on the Nats roster they've acquired through the amateur draft next year will be MAT (I'm sure Kieboom will be better, but no guarantee he starts the year with the team). The best pitcher will be Fedde. That is an abysmal record and if Stras does opt out and they can't re-sign Rendon, it might really be time to do a rebuild.
As for this year and the playoffs, this bullpen is so awful that I just don't see them going far. Hopefully they can win the play-in game and somehow beat the Dodgers, but they're going to need some luck and I don't see there being enough luck for them to get all the way through. Maybe if you have your starters come in in relief in lieu of side work? I don't know. Regardless, I think the Barves have pretty much clinched the East barring an epic collapse on their part.
I think if they don't sign Rendon then I'm done with them. The Lerners love to sign starting pitchers as free agents. They have kept virtually no one developed by the Nats. Zimmermann, Desmond, Clippard, Storen, Harper, and now it would include Rendon. You can't tell everyone you can't sign Harper bc then you can't sign Rendon and then not sign Rendon. You can't say we want a team first guy and let Rendon walk. He has a comparable in Arenado. Get it done. Not signing your own guys unless they take a hometown discount (Strasburg who wanted to stay and Zimm) sends a message to the rest of the team. If Rendon leaves, then what are the odds that Turner, Soto, or Robles will stay when the time comes.
As far as the wild card, they just need to bounce back and win tonight. They still have Corbin and Scherzer going in 2 of the next 3 days. Suck it up and win a few. Odds are the division is out of reach but home field in the WC game is huge. The Nats always want respect. Earn it. Win 4 of the 6.
Side note - the Braves are once again riding their young arms way too hard. Fried's innings are way up this year. Soroka as well. See Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen.
blovy8 said...
Well, there's losing 3 of the last 4. I'm worried that despite bringing up all these relievers, we're going to continue to see the same suspects, instead of finding out whether anyone can get lefties out. I'm baffled as to why Rizzo traded for Elias and it's a glaring weakness now.
As Dottie Pepper said on the air about the 2007 US Solheim Cup Team:
CHOKIN' FREAKIN' DOGS!
Natitude said...
When the Nats signed Eaton I was really excited. Finally a plus defensive outfielder and legit lead off man. It is just such awful luck with injuries that have held him back.
Can you imagine if Eaton and Zimmerman had stayed healthy?
Zimmerman11 said...
well i WAS rooting for a sweep this weekend :( :( :(
JE34 said...
This team is going to miss the playoffs. STL, ATL, MIN, CLE. They'll lose all of those remaining series. Is 86-87 wins enough?
This team SHOULD miss the playoffs. This was their moment when we were all going to find out just what they were made of. Well, we did. If this is the best they can do when they know the stakes and the enormous opportunity to seize control of this race, they aren't going to be worth a dang in the post-season where the stakes are higher and the rewards greater.
Everybody that didn't think Ryan Zimmerman was going to hit into a DP with the sacks full stand on your head.
@Harper, everyone. This is why I didn't follow the "it's improbable that the Nats will miss the playoffs" thing from end of the Mets series. Like...why? I mean, (1) they were playing terribly, outplayed by Mets in every facet of game. (2) they were about face a brutal month while the DBacks had an easy month; and (3) the DBacks were white hot. Like....the elements are there. Also, I'm sorry to put it so bluntly, but the Nats MO for the last decade has been "imagine the worst circumstances under which they could choke in the meaningful games, and they will." Well, they hadn't choked in this particular way yet! I honest to god could felt this sweep coming, and was utterly baffled why folks were still talking about the division when the playoffs were so far from locked. As i said a few days ago, the Nats would be the single worst bullpen by ERA to EVER make the playoffs. Ever. And they haven't even blown a late lead in a bit! I'm being totally serious when I say that i think them making the playoffs is above 50-50 but not by that much. (I would also add....this is one those theories I make fun of when other people bring them up, but I just feel it in my bones: the nats record when Ryan Zimmerman plays vs when he doesn't/when he's on roster vs when he isn't....is....INSANE. They're a terrible team this year when ryan Zimmerman is involved and the best team in MLB when he's not. Again, can never prove anything causal, and it's a bit silly, but sorry, i just associate "Mr Walk Off" with choking.
And i know he had a nice moment with his double vs Mets. I just feel like he represents the bad energy/mojo of the historical and 2010s Nats who fall apart in playoffs or are known for losing etc. sometimes u need to break with the past.
I see we are back to May when everyone wanted to dismantle the team. No big surprise there.
You guys provide the greatest free entertainment on the web. Let me repeat what I said in May. "The baseball season is a marathon, let's see how it all plays out."
538 has the Nats at 93% chance of making the playoffs; FG has 'em at 96.5%. It will take a combination of a Nats collapse and multiple teams (such as the Cubs and DBacks) surging in order for the Nats to totally miss the WC game. Meanwhile, 'Zona just got walked off.......by a relief pitcher! (albeit one who can hit). Now they get to fly to the Big Apple and take on Jacob DeGrom and the Mets. Not saying that the Snakes will lose that one, but it will be a challenge.
Bad news that Suzuki is hurt. Good news is that both Eaton and Scherz are BACK! As Harper mentioned, the Nats definitely missed Eaton in the lineup. And obviously Scherzer has been 'back' for awhile, but today was the first time since the latest IL return that he was unleashed. And we saw the reason why we want him to be starting the WC game if he's still healthy.
Don't forget that in addition to the aforementioned double in the 'Miracle Game', Zim also hit a 3-run bomb in the 8th in Friday's game that counted for the Nats only runs of the game. That being said, maybe Asdrubal should start most of the games at first for the rest of the season? Talk about white hot.
It stinks that the Nats outscored the Braves in the series, and still lost three out of four to them. To quote MW, "That's baseball"
G Cracka X: nah. I want Kendrick starting every game for the remainder that he can. Since he's the third best hitter on the team this year. And it's not close between him and the 4th best. It's kind of an enduring mystery to me why he doesn't play every day at 1B. Including against RHP.
@GCX I was at that game and yes, Zim hit the 3 run homerun, but he also killed the rally in the first by trying to pull a pitch away and grounding into a double play. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong either, just that Zim's homerun was nice, but it's a big momentum swing when he GIDP.
Even still, I blame Rizzo. This is a very good team with a very bad bullpen. Year in and year out, the Nats have awful bullpens, year in and year out, they get next to nothing out of the amateur draft. The Lerners were behind the Scherzer signing, they worked out the Strasburg re-signing, at some point we have to admit that Rizzo is a pretty mediocre GM who got dealt a great hand of cards. I hear Dave Dombrowski is available.
ocw5000 said...
Losing the first 3 by 1- and 2-run margins and then winning game 4 in a blowout is the Natsiest thing ever. Pythagorean Tie!
Agreed that Kendrick is the best hitting option at 1B. That said, his time needs to be managed. He's already been on the IL twice this year. Also, its important to make sure the other 1Bs get ABs too, or the bats will go cold. Tough challenge to manage. But I agree with you that Kendrick overall should be getting more ABs than he has.
@Bx, re: Zimmerman - I've thought this for years. It seems his presence alone means we're a worse team. Digging into the stats though...
2012-2019, Nats record:
When Zimm plays: 470-363 (0.564 W%)
When he doesn't: 245-197 (0.554 W%)
Basically equal. But for a guy dubbed "Mr. Walkoff" he does seem to have an abysmal batting average when the bases are loaded (.262). However, he was about as likely to succeed in that situation as a most of his teammates have in their careers with bases loaded...
Turner: .267 / Eaton: .295 / Rendon: .282 / Soto: .259 / Kendrick: .301 / Robles: .278 / Suzuki: .230
Zim appears to be neither a boost for this team, nor a true detriment when he plays. Regardless, I think we'd all like for more consistent/improved play from 1B.
The Lerners would need to spend over 250 million and have a half a dozen prospects worth trading away for Dombrowski's schtick to work better than Rizzo's. The relief pitching has stunk, but Rizzo's priorities are still correct. Starting pitching and overall hitting is much more important. Figuring out which flavor of month is worth 15 million a year to close is a waste of time and money that's better used on the first two. Plenty of guys throwing in the high 90s with wipe out sliders have ERA's above 4.50 from the homer barrage, all you need to do is look at the Mets pen. The really glaring omission I can blame him for is no LOOGY. There's just no way anyone should have expected Elias to be that guy and Grace has proven he isn't one. Maybe those guys just aren't around this year either. Giving up on Austin Adams may have been a worse decision than signing Rosenthal at this point.
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