Recap of March 8: What Next?
Neil Cavuto was joined by Gregg Hymowitz, founder of Entrust Capital; Jim Rogers, president of JimRogers.com; Ben Stein, economist and former speech writer for President Richard Nixon; Tom Dorsey, Pres. of Dorsey, Wright and Associates and Alan Colmes, co-host of Hannity and Colmes.
Neil Cavuto: What happens after Iraq? Say the best case scenario is Saddam Hussein flees or there's a quick war. And let's go one better, let's say we also get Usama bin Laden in a few weeks. Many believe with those two out of the way it's clear sailing for stocks. But not so fast, there's still North Korea. Could that country block a new bull market?
Ben Stein: If there's war in the Korean peninsula and a nuclear war at that, it would be a catastrophe for human life, and very secondarily, for the stock market. But I think we're going to settle with them. They want to be bribed and we're going to bribe them. The real problem has always been profits. We're not going to see a rally until we see more signs of profit.
Jim Rogers: Neil, if the scenario you outlined does happen, the market will go through the roof. It will drop back down afterwards because of North Korea and because of incompetence at the Federal Reserve or because of profits like Ben mentioned. But North Korea is not our business. Let the Japanese and the Chinese take care of them.
Gregg Hymowitz: I think Jim is wrong. We have to obviously deal with North Korea. We say we want to deal with terrorism. Here is a country that's about to reprocess their spent fuel rods, which basically allows them to give radioactive material to terrorists. You have to deal with that. I think the markets would be very concerned if you said 'the hell with North Korea.' But I think the markets are less concerned with North Korea than other countries right now because it doesn't impact oil as much or the G.D.P as much.
Alan Colmes: North Korea is making a lot of noise right now because they think we're diverted by Iraq. And just as a modest investor I am worried about my investments because of it.
Neil Cavuto: Ben Stein, why do you say pay them off if you know they only want to be bribed?
Ben Stein: I don't think it's worth sending our U.S. boys over there to die if we can just pay them to stop processing nuclear material.
Neil Cavuto: But didn't we do that some years ago and yet things are still the same?
Ben Stein: Well, that's up for some considerable debate. Some say they were following the protocol set up by the former Clinton administration, some say they weren't. Clearly, they were following it more then they are right now. We're a rich country. We can bribe them to stop.
Jim Rogers: The Japanese, Chinese and Russians are rich countries too. Why not let them pay the bribes to deal with North Korea? Even if we settle all these problems internationally, we still have issues here like earnings, the Federal Reserve and deficit spending.
More for Your Money: Are Dot-coms Coming Back?
Neil Cavuto: When internet stocks cratered, Wall Street crumbled! But now Tom Dorsey says they will get you More For Your Money.
Tom Dorsey: The relative strength charts that we follow give you very long term perspective on stocks. They have turned positive for the first time in three years. I can't give you a fundamental reason why this is happening but it's the exact opposite of what was taking place three years ago. Some stocks that will do well are Yahoo! (YHOO), Amazon.com (AMZN) and eBAY (EBAY).
Gregg Hymowitz: These stocks are too expensive. All of the ones Tom has mentioned are all trading at roughly over sixty times earnings. Plus, most of these companies don't even make money. I don't think there's any such thing as an internet stock. Basically the internet has added value to large corporations. I think it's crazy to invest in these stocks.
Jim Rogers: I wouldn't buy them either, but that doesn't mean they can't go through the roof. I think we need peace and we need the war to go right for these stocks to soar.
Neil Cavuto: Why not then just go in for a short-term pickup and then leave?
Jim Rogers: I'm not a good trader. If you're a good trader then do it. Tom's a good trader. He can do it.
Ben Stein: We have no way of knowing if internet stocks will go up because of technical analysis and they're not making any money right now. If technical analysis worked, this would be an entirely different world from what it is now. Technical analysis has an extremely spotty record.
Tom Dorsey: Ben, as an economist if you're willing to embrace the irrefutable law of supply and demand then by de facto you embrace technical analysis. These same fundamental analysts back in 2000 were in love with these internet stocks. Eighty five percent of analysts had "buy" recommendations on these stocks when they were at their tops.
Jim Rogers: I'd put my money into other sectors like raw materials. That's where the new leaders are going to be.
FOX on the Spot
Tom Dorsey: Profitable reality TV shows lose popularity! But buy media anyway due to the growing appetite for news as war with Iraq gets closer. Two stocks I like are Knight Ridder (KRI) and EchoStar (DISH).
Ben Stein: Democrats will back tax cut plan and agree short term deficits can help economy.
Jim Rogers: Sell U.S. dollars! Greenback continues sliding back.
Alan Colmes: Problems during post-war Iraq create problems with U.S. allies.
Neil Cavuto: Relations with France and Germany have been severely damaged. We will pursue a whole new alignment in Europe, more towards the former Eastern block countries, like Latvia and Bulgaria. It will be U.S., Spain, England, Italy and those Eastern guys without France and Germany. Relations will never be what they were.